An exchange in the morning thread sent me off to google for more information on voting in 2024, and I found some interesting 2024 stats from Pew Research.
Overarching view
For the most part, voting patterns across demographic groups in the 2024 presidential election were not substantially different from the 2020 and 2016 elections.
But Donald Trump’s gains among several key groups of voters proved decisive in his 2024 victory.
Hispanic voters
Hispanic voters were divided in 2024, a major shift from 2020 and 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden won Hispanic voters by 25 percentage points, and Hispanic voters supported Hillary Clinton by an even wider margin in 2016. But Trump drew nearly even with Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters, losing among them by only 3 points. Black voters also moved to Trump but remained overwhelmingly Democratic.
Black voters
Trump nearly doubled his support among Black voters between 2020 and 2024: 8% voted for him in 2020 vs. 15% last year. Still, 83% of Black voters backed Harris.
Men – especially men under 50 – backed Trump by larger margins. Men supported Trump by a wider margin than in 2020. Trump narrowly won men under age 50, a shift from 2020 when men in that age group favored Biden by 10 points.
Democrat vs. Republican
As in prior elections, a change in voters’ partisan allegiances – switching from the Democratic to the Republican candidate or vice versa – proved to be a less important factor in Trump’s victory than differential partisan turnout.
In the overall electorate and among key demographic groups, Republican-leaning eligible voters simply were more likely to turn out than Democratic-leaning eligible voters in 2024.
Education
And despite some notable changes in the coalitions, many familiar divisions in demographic voting patterns were once again evident. For example, voters with at least four-year college degrees and urban residents voted for Harris by wide margins. By contrast, Trump retained sizable advantages among noncollege voters and voters living in rural areas.
Gender
Men favored Trump by 12 percentage points in the 2024 election, while women favored Harris by 7 points. Trump made gains among men compared with 2020 and held roughly steady among women:
55% of men voted for Trump in 2024, up from 50% of men in 2020.
46% of women voted for Trump in 2024, compared with 44% of women four years earlier.Race
A 55% majority of White voters cast ballots for Trump in 2024. An identical share of White voters favored Trump in 2020, and 54% selected him in 2016.
White men favored Trump by a margin of 20 points in the most recent election. White women favored Trump by a narrower 4-point margin.
Though most Black voters continued to prefer the Democratic candidate, a larger share of Black voters cast ballots for Trump in 2024 than in 2020 or 2016.
Roughly eight-in-ten Black voters (83%) reported voting for Harris in 2024, while 15% favored Trump. In 2020, 8% of Black voters reported voting for Trump, and just 6% of Black voters favored him in 2016.
Black men and women alike were more likely to vote for Trump in 2024 than in 2020. One-in-ten Black women and 21% of Black men voted for Trump in the most recent election.
Increased shares of Black voters who favored Trump were driven not by individuals shifting their preferences, but by changes in who turned out to vote. While some Black voters did indeed switch from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024, these defections were largely canceled out by Black voters who switched in the opposite direction.
A lot of this won’t be surprising to those of you who pour over polls and statistics. I generally do not.
Definitely a reminder to me that multiple things can be true at the same time, which is not a bad thing.
Definitely a few surprises in there for me, like this one:
White men favored Trump by a margin of 20 points in the most recent election.
White women favored Trump by a narrower 4-point margin.
Not surprising, I guess, given that Roe was thrown overboard, but I had not taken note of how stark the gender gap was.
Anything stand out for any of you?
Robert Reich Call to Action
WaterGirl
This is the last pick we have of the guys in the sidebar. For whatever reason, I find them so charming.
ArchTeryx
That despite Roe vs. Wade being overturned, a majority of white women voted their racial bigotry over their own bodily autonomy. I expected a far bigger gender gap than what we got. The siren song of racism in this country is louder than just about anything else, even economic and personal rights issues.
Professor Bigfoot
I don’t have that data in front of me; but didn’t white women vote for Trump at approximately the same rate all three times?
Some want to draw our attention to the number of Black men who went for Trump; and I will wholeheartedly agree they were driven by pure, straight up misogyny. But they were mere drops in the bucket compared to pretty much everyone else.
Black men were second ONLY to Black women in voting for Harris and the Democrats, so pulling out those few percentage points to demonstrate how it’s the fault of Black men that Trump is president…
Van Buren
Frankly I’m surprised that Trump’s margin with white men was only +20.
Professor Bigfoot
@ArchTeryx: This is why I try to avoid using the word “racism.”
ANYONE can be “racist.”
But in America, white people benefit from white supremacy.
If one managed to have a database of all the letters and documents significant to American history, one would get a significant number of hits by searching for “white supremacy,” “the white man,” “the white race,” “the superior race.”
Conservatism, and therefore the entire GOP apparatus, exists for the sole purpose of the defense and support of white supremacy.*
(*the male in “white supremacy” is usually silent, but it is ALWAYS there)
They Call Me Noni
Anything stand out for any of you?
Yes. We will not elect a woman President of any color in my lifetime. No matter how qualified, educated and experienced she is.
A majority of this country thinks a failed businessman, liar, cheat and bully is a much better choice. I guess I shouldn’t be, but I am always amazed at how either willfully ignorant or just plain fucken stupid so many people in this country are.
Suzanne
There is a significant gender gap in every racial cohort. To me, it is a reminder that all of us swim around in problematic attitudes our whole lives and unfucking our brains to undo prejudices is a project for everyone. It is not exclusive to Americans, either. It is a human universal.
And being on the receiving end of bigotry doesn’t make everyone sympathetic to others.
Redshift
This is the fact that our political media seem completely unable to absorb. “Party switchers” are more interesting than turnout levels, so they constantly describe the changes from one election to the next as people “switching.” People who actually switch parties between elections are vanishingly rare, and most who are so loosely attached are more likely than most people not to vote at all in any given election.
stinger
WaterGirl, thanks for this set of breakdowns.
@Professor Bigfoot: “Some want to draw our attention to the number of
Blackmen who went for Trump”Corrected, if by chance you happen to have meant me. An easy review of my comments will show which demographic I was asking about. If you didn’t mean me, I apologize.
Old School
I’m not getting a good feeling about tomorrow’s job report.
Redshift
@Professor Bigfoot:
and straight, and…
WaterGirl
@Professor Bigfoot:
Not sure what you are referring to there? I just pulled the info from the article and didn’t draw any conclusions, so I don’t think it can be me. Then who?
WaterGirl
@Professor Bigfoot:
I don’t think you’ll get any disagreement on that from Bj peeps.
Professor Bigfoot
@stinger: No, not you!
I don’t have your particular focus, but I don’t disagree that in this patriarchal-ass society, MEN are a real problem.
I just point out that among MEN, that Black men are the men who supported Harris the most; that the gender split between Black men and Black women is smaller than pretty much any other cohort; and that white women voted for Trump three times and Black men never did.
Professor Bigfoot
@WaterGirl: Nor you.
But there IS someone here that I have turned into delicious dessert because that’s how he rolls.
I do think a lot of white people look HARD for other reasons for Trump’s triumph other than white people voting for white supremacy.
Baud
Kristine
@They Call Me Noni:
Yeah, that point’s been driven home with a jackhammer.
I sometimes wonder if European countries having been ruled by queens at various times made it comparatively easier for women to win elected office both over there and in former colonies etc. Over here, it’s always been white men at the top—anyone different is a bridge too far for too many folks.
Peale
@Redshift: The biggest swing voters are “Voted” and “Stayed home”. Maybe they switch parties. Maybe they don’t. Probably not. But their party is “I’ll check in every once in awhile”.
WaterGirl
@Professor Bigfoot:
That played a huge part, and I think gender did also, but I continue to think it was a perfect storm of awfulness and if just one of those things had been different, I think the Dems would have been the ones to squeak by with a victory.
So many countries had their fingers on the scale, too. The Hamas attack on Oct 7. Israel’s ongoing response to that attack – Bibi most certainly did everything he could to help T get elected. The protesters in support of Palestine – in some cases well-meaning people were coopted by groups that wanted to sway the election in T’s direction. Russian bots spreading disinformation. I could go on.
In spite of race and gender issues, and urban vs. rural, and “murdering the babies”, and more, i think the election would have gone a different way without all those external thumbs on the scale. Which doesn’t deny or underplay for a second the race and gender issues and the hate of the rural areas have for people who are different than they are.
I believe it was a perfect (awful) storm that got us where we are today.
scav
While we’re arguing percentages and assigning group virtue and vice based on them why not trot out the biggest indicator? Let’s blame the group who 100% voted for Trump — which of course would be Americans.
Melancholy Jaques
@Professor Bigfoot:
The “Trump makes big gains with black men” stories weren’t just bullshit, they were bullshit designed to protect the most openly racist president since Wilson.
Suzanne
@Kristine: Fuck, there have been women leaders in Pakistan, Central African Republic, Liberia, Indonesia, Chile…… but we can’t fucken figure it out.
Melancholy Jaques
@Old School:
But they are not exporting millions of immigrants.
Citizen Alan
@Kristine: It’s been nearly 50 years since Thatcher rose to power. Non-religious conservatives are okay with women in power who are sufficiently conservative (and you don’t get more conservative than flatly denying that “society” exists as a concept). Religious conservatives will never be okay with women because every major religion has some degree of patriarchal misogyny woven into its fabric. And in the US, the latter group has been in the driver’s seat for as long as I’ve been alive.
gvg
@Redshift: I don’t think we will elect a white woman too soon. I recall discussing it with my dad after Hillary lost and then again when Biden won and hoping we had a good white male candidate for Florida’s governor. Regretfully trying to play it safe by guessing what would work best with other voters not myself.
We didn’t get an ideal candidate and lost. Crist wasn’t it in spite of the superficial white male. He hasn’t built up any following and has lost a few times. In spite of that I think he would be a sane choice and better than the republicans we have.
Sometimes we make choices based on how racist or chauvinist we think other people collectively are. Realistically cynical, but we are always just guessing too.
dmsilev
@Old School: Oy. Yeah, that sounds pretty bad, complete with the lame attempt to blame The Others.
Hoodie
@Old School: Navarro is one of the dumbest of these imbeciles. So, numbers will show a labor shortage and therefore we should keep deporting more workers so we’re even less competitive with the Chinese?
Professor Bigfoot
@WaterGirl: The thing is, the only reason those thumbs WORKED was because of white male supremacy.
Those thumbs, attached to billionaires and foreign intelligence services USED American white supremacy to get Trump elected.
If America had not been predisposed this way, those thumbs would not have mattered.
JML
I’m planning on living a long time, so I hope I get to see it, but it’s worrisome. I had hoped to see a woman elected president by now, but my goodness sexism is so ingrained.
I’m a white dude, and I’m so fucking sick of white dudes. As a category, we ain’t good.
Baud
Anyone who said “not that woman” in 2016 did not truly mean the first half of the affirmation.
Old School
@Baud:
How much was he offered to leave them behind?
Dorothy A. Winsor
Our first woman president is most likely a VP who takes office after a white, male president dies.
Archon
Nobody has satisfactory explained the 2024 Latino vote to me. Not even my Latino friends who live in the community can explain it in a way that makes sense to me.
Paul in KY
@They Call Me Noni: Sadly agree with your take.
Lyrebird
@WaterGirl: I may have missed it and need to get back to work, but I didn’t see much discussion of changes in turnout.
Would be good to know if some reports we heard from the state level of fascist pustule turning out more rare/first-time voters, that would allow for a better evaluation of what the shift among Black male voters contributed.
Baud
@Archon:
LatinX, man. LatinX.
Professor Bigfoot
@JML: I’m at “smack them in the face with Black female candidates until they wake the fuck up.”
Or until their white male compatriots fuck it up so bad even they have to try something else.
Hoodie
@Old School: Yes, the good ol’ family vacation to Pedophile Island. Maybe it can become an attraction at Universal or Disney.
Lyrebird
@Archon:
I strongly recommend reading Kos’ new piece about that, whether or not you agree. Recommendation from a gringa, but with some years not too far from MX border.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Professor Bigfoot:
Probably wouldn’t have been so easy to accomplish if not for the rampant income inequality allowing for the rich and powerful to amass mountains of cash to spend on buying up mass media and politicians
JML
@Suzanne: This list of other countries is long. The US struggles to elect women to the effing US Senate. It’s shameful.
you look at the areas where the GOP is still consistently in control and you can connect some commonalities: concentrated generational wealth & power in white, male hands. strong attachments to religions with (white) patriarchal tendencies. poor or underfunded educational systems.
It’s never just one thing…but you do see a lot of the same things.
Old School
@Old School:
Now I’m kind of curious how many nannies they had.
Archon
@WaterGirl: You can argue a “perfect storm” also got Hitler elected Chancellor of Germany. History doesn’t excuse the electorate or the consequences of that vote.
Paul in KY
@Professor Bigfoot: Agree MEN are a big problem, votingwise.
WaterGirl
@Professor Bigfoot:
I am not denying that racism played a HUGE role. You would have to be blind or crazy not to recognize that.
But misogyny played a HUGE role, too.
As did the people (like my sister) who thinks “all the murdered babies” trump everything, who said that if her pregnant daughter died because she bled out in a hospital parking lot because they refused to give her an abortion, then that would be god’s will. All those people can’t be discounted, either. There is a huge block of those people.
I maintain that it was a perfect storm of awfulness.
Much as we would like to, we are not going to solve racism before the next election.
I think a lot of stupid, foolish, or disengaged people voted R and a lot of eyes are being opened every day.
We have to try to reach people and get them to fucking vote.
JML
@Professor Bigfoot: More and more I’ve been telling people, “Hey, maybe be less racist.”
I dunno if it’s going to work, but some of these white suburban and exurban people have probably never actually heard that to their face in their very comfortable (white) and polite enclaves…
Kirklin
Another dataset for those who care is the US Census report on voters, found here.
The reason I find it useful is that it gives actual probable count, with margins of error. This is where you can see that there were approximately 109 million white non-hispanic voters (+/- a bit less than a million). That is almost 6 times the total number of black voters (18.6M +/- .5M). Rephrased, the sturm und drang of the black margin shifting 7 points pro-Trump could have been overwhelmed by just over a 1 point shift in white voters.
In other words, I find it useful in giving a 2 dimensional view that gives proportion to apparently large data points.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Lyrebird:
That’s a pretty interesting piece. Thanks for sharing it
Lyrebird
@Professor Bigfoot:
My less than two cents’ worth: I think American endorsement of white supremacy is one of the top 3 factors explaining that election, with RU and possibly CN interference fanning the flames of (NO particular order) anti-Black, anti-woman, ageist, anti-Semitic, [anti-LGBT, and more…] and anti-good government tendencies for their own malicious aims.
but of this I am certain re: looking at exit poll numbers, gotta keep the turnout breakdowns in mind to interpret the percentages before drawing strong conclusions.
1 – Did the percentage gain among White men and women come from more Rs being convinced, or more from opposing side getting discouraged. (If the “pie” gets smaller overall in a way that favors one side or the other, percentages will go up for that side even with same or fewer voters on that side. See also preznit approval among Republicans)
2 – Same question for both Black men and women.
Easy questions to answer? HEck no! But without having more crosstab data on turnout at least, these percentage changes border on meaningless.
IIRC in PA and Mich there were signs of Dem voter discouragement, but I dont’ have the data, and whoops wasn’t I supposed to wrap up my lunch break… I will read again later to see who else has other ways to approach this.
Suzanne
@Archon:
Trump made inroads with literally every demographic group. And I say this not to blame anyone. I point this out to change our (meaning nice liberals’) mindset.
They obviously liked what he was selling. Some of that is certainly white patriarchy. But some of it wasn’t. I do think there’s a lot of value in understanding all of the reasons that people didn’t vote the way we wanted. Some of it is bigotry, some of it is anti-incumbency, some of it is just the swing of American politics. But some of it is correctable. Either people think our vision isn’t good enough (an alignment problem), they don’t believe us (a credibility problem), or they don’t know what we stand for (a messaging problem). Those are fixable things.
Lyrebird
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Thank you Goku! Are you in or near O Hi O? must be a challenging but very interesting time to be there. Peace to you and yours!
Kristine
@Professor Bigfoot:
If a white male fucks up, it’s just him. The next one will be fine.
A member of any other group? The entire cohort is tarnished by the failure.
Really getting tired of that song.
Bupalos
@Van Buren: Whites gave GHW Bush at a higher margin than Trump. In fact I think they’ve given every non-Trump Republican a higher margin than they gave Trump.
American elections are still dominated by white supremacy, but they’ve also never been less dominated by white supremacy. We might take a minute amidst Trump’s shock-and-awe racial pyrotechnics to think about how American politics is actually changing rather than harping forever on the ways it’s staying the same. Every election we win or lose is by 1-4%. The changes that drive those wins and loses are not contained in the durability of traditional ethnic preferences, but rather in the way those ethnic preferences are slowly losing sway to other competing political preferences and forces.
Trump is actually clearer-eyed about this than we are. There’s data that his attention-economy hacks like the “black jobs” gambit actually worked, that hard-line immigration attitudes grew among the male black working class and predicted the move that Obama was freaking out about prior to the election. We hear that stuff and gleefully think it must backfire. There’s reality is that it basically can’t backfire. He has few votes to lose and significant votes to gain, and the traditional political salience of ethnic identity is simply weakening across the board.
Kirklin
@Archon: Two causes, in what I’ve been able to determine. he easiest way to describe the latino vote is to remember that hispanic is ethnicity, not race. “White non-hispanic”, etc. Second, traditional hispanic culture has strongly delineated gender roles.
The gender role misogyny is obvious. The multiplier is race.
A decent chunk of hispanic perceive themselves as white except where being hispanic is additionally beneficial. The Florida Cubans are notorious for that. So are Texan hacendados.
So when a Black Female who espoused centrist-progressive goals of wealth control stepped up to the plate, they went to the White Male Wealth-class representative.
Baud
@Bupalos:
Care to share?
RevRick
@They Call Me Noni: I don’t have your takeaway from the elections of 2016 or 2024. There were exogenous factors at play in both elections that would have burdened any Democrat.
When the banking system fails, recovery is always agonizingly slow and November 2016 was just seeing the glimmer. 2010 and 2014 weren’t exactly a rousing endorsement of Democratic policies.
Meanwhile, in 2024, the painful memory of COVID was still raw. The racist/misogynistic vote is baked into the GOP’S 40% base. People don’t suddenly remember to be racist or misogynistic. But they do remember economic pain and eruptions of violence. And those latter things hit minorities especially hard.
catclub
@Peale:
in 2020 they voted by mail, but still stayed home.
gvg
The important point is that several things are true at once. That means? Well maybe it means we should plan on doing several different things about them? Like shore up where there is a it of erosion if we can, so that we don’t have to make up as many votes somewhere else, AND increase somewhere else that we also make plans to keep?
I would guess black women family members perhaps might be best able to say how to bring that small leak home. As the professor has pointed out blacks are only about 10% of the population. Those numbers weren’t big in total, but there shouldn’t have been any given how often they have been burned by our society. However I don’t think it will help if outsiders are “telling” them that and it’s just my cynical opinion. Of course I don’t understand how anyone believed anything Trump in particular said.
What really upsets me is that Roe didn’t make more impact on women. Maybe the women who care had already left the republicans years before Trump, because that gender gap was wide even before him. Not quite that wide but pretty dramatic. it still should have made more of a difference.
Hispanic……well we know we need to build contact up and organizations. We knew it, but didn’t do it.
I can tell you that certain states need their whole democratic party rebuilt. Thats not reflected in those statistics, but it is the truth I see. I am not a social person and can’t do it myself, but as far as I can tell the party died with Lawton Chiles.
I believe we have increased Native voting which is good. that can be expanded on some. It’s not mentioned in these statistics.
Any other ideas? We have to do multiple things going forward.
Kirklin
@Suzanne:
False. White women shifted away from Trump – though he still got the majority.
Every other demographic group for which we have sufficient data moved as you said, increasing their margin of support.
Shalimar
@Old School: And how many of Lutnick’s “nannies” were under 18.
Paul in KY
@JML: I hope you get to see it (a Democrat, of course)!
trollhattan
Education proved mobile: Republicans once dominated with the college-educated and now Dems do, while the less educated skewed further to Republicans.
One is tempted to infer all kinds of reasons, from messaging to red meat policies to nativism. And if you want a tell, the full-frontal attacks on “elite” universities and public education in general are Republicans signaling their desire to keep voters undereducated and ignorant.
Also: girls still have cooties.
Professor Bigfoot
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I don’t think so.
America has been anti-Black since 1619; I don’t think it takes any special message to make white people hate Black people— there wasn’t a media conglomeration when Black Wall Street got burned to the ground, after all.
It wasn’t there while white mobs descended on the lunch counters; or when they sought to harm Black kids integrating “their” schools.
Rather like the idea that Germany needed to study America to learn how to hate Jews— no, Americans have LONG known exactly how to hate Black people; but Americans are the ones who knew best how to write their hatred into law.
But the hate? Americans* just do that.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Archon:
Hitler was appointed Chancellor, not elected, but the Nazi Party received a lot of seats in the 1932 Reichstag elections, along with the Communists.
From Wiki:
In a sense it was the fault of the electorate and those they elected to prevent this from happening in the first place, but the Nazis did absolutely seize power when given the opportunity, using force to intimidate and suppress their opponents in the lead up
The lesson of Nazi Germany is that a descent into dictatorship can happen anywhere and nobody is immune. It’s possible the US could have went that way during the Great Depression if not for strong, proactive leadership that stabilized things
Deputinize America
@Baud:
“Hey, gang – I’m gonna detour a minute and go visit a friend….”
Paul in KY
@Old School: 5. Had to leave one on the island as an offering.
catclub
@JML: Given the example of Thatcher in GB and Meloni in Italy. It looks like the first woman elected in the US will be a Republican. Maybe Susie Wiles.
Baud
@catclub:
Also Japan, just in the last year.
catclub
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
 
Or just pure luck. Germany had 48% unemployment in 1932. US had only 25%.
Baud
HopefullyNotCassandra
@Kristine: I don’t think so. Secretary Clinton actually won the most votes. VP Harris was hampered by a short campaign with a generally hostile (& wrong) media. I think this country will elect a woman, probably of color, in my lifetime. The colorless clumps in my hair are multiplying fast now too.
Matt McIrvin
90% of the arguments we get into about these things are people talking past each other because one is talking about an overall level and the other is talking about the change from 2020 to 2024. You get starkly different pictures depending on which you emphasize. One thing I worry about is people extrapolating these trends linearly and trying to make decisions based on that, when many of them have probably already reversed.
Peale
@Kirklin: don’t forget us LGBTQIA+ folks. We may not be important, but apparently we were not impressed by arguments that “normal gays should ditch the Trans and vote Republican.” So our vote remained 84%. Unfortunately, those 16% are the looniest of the high profile loons we have at the moment.
Paul in KY
@WaterGirl: The GQP has captured alot of ‘single issue’ voters. Hopefully Pope Leo can reduce the number of Catholics in that cohort.
Steve LaBonne
@Baud: AIPAC got exactly what it deserved- a winner even less friendly to its bullshit than Malinowski.
Eduardo
@Lyrebird: Thanks for the recommendation. I found it really insightful and at times, even a little painful for a couple of things he said that somehow I should have gotten but wasn’t. Best Kos post I can remember.
scav
@Matt McIrvin: There’s also the issue that what’s often at state is people’s basic operating premises about the world (if not outright preconceptions of the world, meaning not based on any evidence whatsoever) so any mere statistical data will be interpreted in light of that. The glass is half full if there’s water in it and half empty if it’s cola.
Melancholy Jaques
@Matt McIrvin:
What would political punditry do without that?
Bupalos
@Baud: Here’s a good discussion of recent research. While it’s headlined as black attitudes to immigration turning more positive over time (a true characterization when asked generally) of more direct electoral interest are the discordant responses on jobs competition or support for “building the wall”
I think combined with the data on exactly where Trump made progress with blacks (basically younger men with disproportionately physical blue-collar jobs) the idea that his calling attention to this idea of jobs competition worked for him deserves some consideration.
Deputinize America
@catclub:
It’ll be Ivanka: “Daddy always said I was the best at French kissing!”
Peale
@Steve LaBonne: I know its their job to make sure that Israel is always front in center at all times and all places, but I am starting to get really tired of having to view all candidates through that particular lens
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Professor Bigfoot: It is the fault of men that we have Trump. If fewer men voted in 2024, Harris would be president.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Archon: It’s easy, Latinos are racist against blacks and Harris is a black woman.
Everyone ignores that a lot of these minorities hate each other for various dumb reasons and view whites as neutrals.
Mai Naem mobile
@Archon: Univision got bought by a right winger. Kamala was a woman and black. Inflation and the cost of stuff including rent and groceries. I also think this country had some kind of collective dissociative amnesia from COVID.
trollhattan
@HopefullyNotCassandra:
2024 was an anti-incumbent year (for many, many nations) and I don’t think Johnny Unbeatable was going to beat the Republicans, no matter who the Dems chose. Was it an extra tall and steep mountain they had to climb that year? Absolutely.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Not saying race isn’t important. Just saying across all the races and ethnicities, and unacceptable number of men supported Trump.
#NotAllMen
Baud
@Bupalos:
That piece doesn’t mention the “black jobs” comment Trump made.
jonas
@ArchTeryx: I think a lot of women in red states were in favor of jettisoning Roe, and/or didn’t really care because if worse came to worst, they could just head across a state line to a neighboring blue state and take care of it. And of course there are many who, like the white people who believe that the nice Mexican immigrant *they* know shouldn’t be deported, believe that all abortions are wrong except the one they need and so if it ever came to that, there would be some options.
Again, as I’ve observed many times, the biggest hurdle we face with the American electorate is that most of them have no idea how/why anything works. And also the racism.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
Unfortunately, white voters went from 54% Trump in 2016 to 55% in 2024. JFC I’m embarrassed for white people. Even white women by 4%. I was so sure there would be a substantial Roe backlash.
mapaghimagsik
American men in general don’t like voting for women. Combined with white people voting white, we got a child molester. Many men are cool with that.
Professor Bigfoot
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: If fewer *white people* in general voted.
If more *white women,* another demographic who have had their human and civil rights abrogated on this continent at the hands of white men had voted… but as much as you want to blame it on “MEN,” you’ll find that Black men didn’t vote for it, but WHITE WOMEN DID.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
zhena gogolia
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Women could have stopped him.
Suzanne
@gvg:
A few notes on this:
Steve LaBonne
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): “I am convinced that the Dreamers, at least the Dreamers of today, would rather live white than live free.”- Ta-Nehisi Coates
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Matt McIrvin: The racial trends have already reversed, if the reports are accurate about Hispanic voters. The gender trends aren’t going anywhere. The GOP has gone all in on being the male supremacy party.
Eduardo
@Suzanne: I generally avoid these kind of discussions because they tend to degenerate in collective blame games and i don’t find them cool or productive.
But I agree so much with your comment.
And also, what I always are tempted to say in these kind of discussions: if we want a republic or if we were in better times, a better government we have to ask ourselves what is it that we can do so the people like what the Democratic Party is selling. You don’t need to sacrifice your principles but there is salience, importance and principles and it is important to know the difference. And also, individual and groups are not immutable and can be pushed on one direction or other. Finally, is there anything really stupid we are doing that are pissing people off — I know there always are.
particularly the operatives and the politicians in the Democratic Party should be always obsessed about those things. It is their fucking job!
scav
Americans could have stopped him. Left handed baristas, so long as they allied with Baseball fans could have stopped him. And? That gets us where.
Suzanne
@jonas:
There are certainly socially conservative women.
But Harris won women ages 18-49 (reproductive age) by 14 points. That’s a lot. And the gender gap is smaller amongst the oldest age cohort and gets larger in the youngest cohort.
WTFGhost
@Suzanne: Yeah. Misogyny is kinda weird for me, because I realized that boys were stupid in some of their attitudes early, so, girls were never mysterious to me.
I know, but it should.
I remembered a day I heard a concept, “respectability politics” where you didn’t want to be like one of “those” Black people … the kind that Malcolm X pretended to be when his draft number came up, where he noted the Black woman assisting the recruiter went in to confirm “this is a Black man, but not my kind of Black man.”
No, you wanted to dress up in a good suit/dress, you wanted “good” kids, these days, you don’t want your sons wearing their pants halfway to their knees (but if they do, at least it’s clean, well mended, and obviously well cared-for), to avoid the worst of the bigotry.
Thing is, I know how that shit works. People are still bigoted, they just hate you all the more for fooling them as to your true nature. You can be a calming, wise, point of stability, but, if you’re in so much pain, you throw a tantrum, because “no one can see you,” and, if someone witnesses you, it’s *endsville*. You can’t explain that; you can’t even try. Raw pain freaks too many people out, and bigotry seems to touch on the same nerve endings.
WaterGirl
@Archon: To be clear I’m not excusing anyone that voted for Trump or even anyone who stayed home.
Matt McIrvin
@Suzanne: I recall hearing at least anecdotal evidence of young voters assuming that Joe Biden somehow overturned Roe, or at least tacitly approved because he “didn’t stop it” (how would that work?)
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Professor Bigfoot: The split among ww was 4%. Just 4%. White men favored Trump by 20%. A majority of Hispanic men voted for Trump. Twice as many black men favored Trump as women. Sure, if enough married white women separated themselves enough from the constant drumbeat to submit to their husbands to vote for their own interests, we might have barely eeked out a win. However, it would be very, very difficult to overcome the huge edge Trump had with men
#NotAllMen
jonas
@Baud: I forget where it was, but there was a radio program/podcast I was listening to sometime last year discussing the election and one of the panelists was a Black woman who admitted that the “Black jobs” remark was racist, but that Trump hammering on how immigrants threatened a lot of jobs filled by African Americans did strike a chord with a number of people she knew.
People have a surprising ability to tune out what they don’t want to hear and just focus on one or two things they can use to justify a decision to themselves (“Well, he does put his foot in his mouth a lot, but that’s because he’s not a traditional politician…”)
WaterGirl
@Paul in KY: Paul I found a bunch of your comments in the spam filter this morning and released all of them. Belatedly. No idea why they were in there.
E.
@Lyrebird: Very, very good piece. Thank you for sharing it. Really excellent.
WaterGirl
@Kirklin: wow, that’s good to know, thanks.
Matt McIrvin
@Mai Naem mobile:
Oh, they remembered it– they were just successfully propagandized into believing the anti-pandemic measures were overdone and were worse than the disease, and they blamed Democrats. Survivorship bias played a role. Many of the people who got the worst of it were dead and could not vote.
Suzanne
@Matt McIrvin:
There’s plenty of people who think that the President can pull a rabbit out of a hat. Executive orders and the like. I mean…. FFOTUS does shit like this all the time. I can understand how low-info people put this together.
Archon
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I hate bringing up Barack Obama because at this point we need to treat him as one of Americas greatest anomalies but latinos voted for him in huge numbers. I get the misogyny angle but I still can’t process how a party running on mass deportation now!, can get almost half the latino vote.
Geminid
@WaterGirl: Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack was a sort of “Black Swan” event and it hurt Biden and then Harris in several different ways. And the fact that Netamyahu was Israel’s PM throughout was an aggravating factor. I wouldn’t say that war made the difference in the 2024 election, but it made a difference in our politics and still does..
Netanyahu’s Premiership was itself a kind of Black Swan event. The November 1, 2022 Knessett election turned on a very few thousand votes. Had the liberal Meretz party won 3.25 percent of the vote instead of 3.24%, Netanyahu would not have been able to form a government.
The Israeli Left was in shock the next day, as bad as American Democrats were when Trump beat Clinton in 2016.
It was an own-goal by their leaders. Labor Party chief Merav Michaeli had refused Meretz’s plea to form a joint slate, so the Meretz vote was stranded. Michaeli is now out of politics, and Labor and Meretz have merged. They call their new party “The Democrats.”
Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid campaigned vigorously and successfully, and increased his MKs to 22, not far behind Likud’s 26(?). But there is a phenomenon in parliamentary democracies called “cannibalization,” where a party succeeds at the expense of its ideological neighbors, and that is what happened in the case of Lapid and Meretz. Polls now show Lapid’s party winning half as many MKs as they did last time.
Anyway, Netanyahu slid back in and he’s been been fuvking Israel up ever since. He’s traveling now, and should arrive in DC soon. He’ll meet with Trump and his team tomorrow.
They have a lot to talk about including Gaza and the West Bank. But Netanyahu doesn’t want to talk about that stuff. He wants to talk Trump into attacking Iran. That’s why he moved this trip up a week.
So Netanyahu has fuvked the Israelis up, and he’s fuvked the Democrats up, and now it’s the Republicans’ turn.
WaterGirl
@Kristine: You’ve got that right!
Matt McIrvin
@Kirklin:
This is a point Prof. Bigfoot makes frequently.
jonas
@Suzanne: I was thinking specifically of white women in red states/districts. Most of them were celebrating the end of Roe and/or maybe thought it wouldn’t affect them. Most WOC of course knew better.
jonas
@Suzanne: An overlapping Venn diagram with people who thought Biden had a dial marked “Inflation” on his desk that he could turn up or down as his mood dictated.
WaterGirl
@Baud: he has no fury…
Good for him!
Kristine
@catclub: @Baud: Jacinda Ardern, the NZ PM, seemed pretty liberal. The Finnish PM, Sanna Marin. They’re not all conservative.
Suzanne
@Archon:
Lots of Latinos are native-born Americans and they have the same aspirations for their lives as native-born Americans.
If there is a lesson to be found here….. it is that most people are looking out for themselves first. Quite honestly, I get it. They care about their personal interests, their bank accounts, first and foremost. Most of us don’t really like being thought of as a group. And, quite frankly, that’s a frequent criticism of the Democratic Party…. Some people find it condescending and presumptuous.
Like, if you are a Latino small-business owner…. why wouldn’t you have most of the same interests as a white small-business owner? Why is it somehow more gobsmacking for the Latino person to vote for Republicans?
JoyceH
I’m struck by the huge swing toward Trump by Hispanic voters. And now the number one goal of this administration is to make those very people’s lives hell on earth.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Dorothy A. Winsor: that is my thought, too.
WaterGirl
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): White males were at 20% and white females were 4%. I guess we don’t know for sure what that 16% difference was but my guess is it had to do with both gender of the candidate and Roe.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Archon: Trump lost the Hispanic women’s vote. He won with men, something that article somehow left out.
Omnes Omnibus
@They Call Me Noni: Not a majority.
Steve LaBonne
@Suzanne: The fact that it was completely predictable that in a Trump regime everyone who has brown skin and/or speaks Spanish would have to live in fear of immigration enforcement, but they didn’t want to hear that.
Josie
@Lyrebird:
That piece really nails the Latino culture. I grew up with it in deep South Texas (15 miles from the border), and It is ingrained in my memories.
Steve LaBonne
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Rule of thumb when things go bad politically: the number one problem is always white men. It’s really disgusting.
WaterGirl
@Matt McIrvin: we need to be helping people learn how the government actually works.
Melancholy Jaques
@RevRick:
I can see all those things being in the mix. What I don’t see is that they are reasons to put that asshole back in power. Everyone knew he was a corrupt, lying bigot who tried to overthrow the government, who continued to lie about the 2020 election, and who had never done a fucking thing for anyone other than himself & the richest Americans.
No disrespect to you or anyone else analyzing the 2024 election, but I do not have any more sympathy or patience for “some people had good reasons for voting for Trump” arguments. All those things he has said & done that show he is cruel & evil, that he is unfit for the presidency, that he is just plain stupid. People who voted for him or stayed home because they were okay with him getting back in the White House had to put all that aside. They had to say to themselves that none of those things mattered more than what? The price of eggs? Bullshit.
These are all arguments trying to rescue or redeem the half of American people who are just assholes who actually want a government that hurts people they don’t like. I used to believe that we outnumbered them but no longer. We have to outwork them.
Steve LaBonne
@WaterGirl: The schools should be doing that, but we know how conservative parents would react.
Archon
@Suzanne: Respectfully I think you are giving too much grace to Latinos that voted for Trump. There is no way to do mass deportation without being EXTREMELY disruptive and heavy handed in latino communities.
Latino support for Trump collapsing suggests this isn’t what they thought they were voting for but I think its fair to ask, what did you think you were voting for when mass deportation was their policy plank?
Anyway
@Baud: And Claudia, in Mexico — she seems to have good media game.
no body no name
Leaves out income. Harris won 100k over. Trump won under 50k and 50-100k. That’s a gap that could be fixed but fixing it would mean upsetting the moderates and we can’t do that so that gap will grow. Also the less income people make the less likely they are to vote.
We don’t want to talk about this but this is a second class war and we are winning. There’s more than one raging now.
Kirklin
@Matt McIrvin: Yes, but I think it right to support the truth with independent data when I can.
Suzanne
@Steve LaBonne: Latino citizens have been moving rightward for multiple election cycles now. Their numbers are growing and they’re finding success here. They obviously have interests in issues other than immigration.
It’s somewhat paternalistic to assume that people of color, women, etc. are behaving irrationally…..but that white men who vote for Republicans are just being logical. Everyone is voting for their interests.
Most white men are better served by Democrats, because most white men need or will need Social Security and Medicare, they will need loans to go to college, they will helped by a union, they will need Medicaid, they need clean air to breathe. And yet, we don’t talk about them like they’re irrational in their voting behavior.
Everyone needs to pull their heads out of their asses.
Steve LaBonne
@Suzanne: Your defense is vitiated by the fact that they are abandoning Trump now that they see what a Stephen Miller immigration regime really means. Turns out they actually don’t have stronger interests than not living in fear. And I have never said or thought that white male conservatives are rational, so that snide remark is also bullshit.
WaterGirl
@Suzanne: The Democrats are better for small business owners than Republicans!
Bupalos
@Baud:@Baud: No, it discusses attitudes to the idea of economic competition for jobs from immigrants as perceived by black respondants. That was the concept that Trump’s “black jobs” viral sensation was aimed at.
cain
@Professor Bigfoot:
I think all demographics, latinos and black folk in 2020 and 2024 showed losing support for the Democratic platform. I think trans issues, that the GOP people were screaming from the rooftops was one of the things that pulled them towards the GOP.
Biden was the black women pick and why he emerged as the lead in the primaries. It should have held steady support from latinos I would have imagined but latinos started shifting to the GOP either because of trans or because of illegal immigration or both.
It’s too bad they are bunch of bigots. Transgendered people are people. They should have been empathetic.
White women (not all white women!) seem to enjoy voting for the patriarchy.
Suzanne
@Archon:
They are getting the same “grace” — which is to say, cognitive empathy — as the white people who voted for Trump. Which is to say: I think that they weigh their interests (subconsciously) and make voting decisions that make sense to them as individuals.
HopefullyNotCassandra
@Geminid: it was an awful day when Bibi returned to power. I would say it was nearly unbelievable, but that word has almost become meaningless these days.
Steve LaBonne
@WaterGirl: They’re better than Republicans for EVERY sector of the economy and have been for a very long time. But good luck learning that from the corporate/ billionaire media.
mr perfect
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Sister: I can’t vote in US elections since I’m one of those Canadian bullies whose been stealing your lunch money until the Macho Man Orange Yeller came along to take a bridge between our countries away to teach us a lesson. But I am a white heterosexual male and if I were American and could vote in US elections I would have voted for both Hilary Clinton in 2016 and Kamala Harris in 2024 because they were more qualified than Orange Yeller. By far. I will not blame anyone other that white men for his victories because of white men’s racism and stupidity. I can’t understand why any women would vote for him but white women did and I can’t understand why latinos would but latino men did. So not all men but most men did and as the Professor With Large Feet stated not black men, extremely few voted his way. As per usual, white men led the way. I have to be honest. I do have a dog or dogs in their fight, my daughter has been a decade long resident of the USA, is a green card holder and is married to an American of hispanic heritage. I am also a proud grandfather of a two and one half year American girl.
HopefullyNotCassandra
@trollhattan: you are probably right. Relitigating it will not change today either.
Suzanne
@Steve LaBonne:
Poll after poll of Latinos before the election showed that they had all the same concerns in front of them as white people. Affordability and wage growth, etc. And, as has been said many times before…. many Latinos don’t want large numbers of immigrants, either.
This whole thread is about gobs being smacked that racial minorities, women, immigrants, etc. would vote for FFOTUS. The undercurrent is that it’s understandable/logical for white people to vote for him…. that’s just what we have come to expect. That’s holding white people to a lower standard. And it is flattening the complexity of people’s identities to their race, gender, immigration status, etc.
JML
@Suzanne: well, we do talk about white dudes being irrational in their voting behavior, but only in the context of the rural/urban divide. GOP policies are pretty bad for farm communities and have been rapidly getting much much worse (hi, soy bean farmers!) but they’re still locked in for MAGA, especially the white dudes. (see it all the time just by the flags & bumper stickers on the trucks) They’d rather vote for patriarchy and racism than their own interests, because they can’t be bothered to actually figured out what their own interests even are without having them spoon-fed from right-wing psycho media.
Ugh.
I know there’s a great deal of feeling there that the cities look down on rural communities, and there’s probably a certain amount of truth to it. But FFS, get over yourself before you lose the farm. And recognize that whatever’s being dished out to you in condescension you send back in at least equal amounts with the racist Bee Ess you spill about cities being crime-ridden hellholes.
Steve LaBonne
@Suzanne: Again you’re making my point for me. When they thought they had nothing to fear from Trump’s immigration policy of course they held other issues to be more important. Now that they have learned the hard way that they should have listened to the warnings, that has changed quickly and in a big way.
cain
@JML: All we need to do is convert some rural areas to Democratic and see them thrive. That’s the only way we are going to convince these folks that Democratic policies are working.
Of course, fox news will tell them that the yellow water coming down is pure bliss and they should stick their tongue out to catch it.
Baud
@Bupalos:
Ok. Just confirming that there is no data that the “black jobs” remark helped Trump.
cain
@Steve LaBonne: But will they remember after Trump is gone? It seems like these voters have short memories. They want to go back to being conservative, they can’t fathom voting for “liberal”. It’s very in-grained in them because they made it part of their identity.
Suzanne
@Steve LaBonne: My point is that white people should have also listened to those warnings! Latinos are not distinctly hornswaggled. FFOTUS made gains in every cohort, everyone stepped on their own dicks.
God, it’s so depressing. So many stupid people.
Archon
@Suzanne: Yes as a black man I understand how and why a white man would vote for Trump, I don’t respect it but anyone with a cursory understanding of American history can at least understand the pull white supremacy and patriarchy have on white men.
I have less understanding on why other non-white male groups voted for the white patriarchy candidate. It varies in degrees, for example I understand a bit more why a married white woman with white kids voted for Trump. I have less understanding for why a black man voted for Trump and I have even less understanding why many latinos voted for the party that promised to terrorize their communities
Steve LaBonne
@cain: ALL voters have short memories, alas. So once again Democrats will get at most 4 years starting in 2029, and more likely 2, to fix Republican damage that is far more devastating than ever before. And that will pretty much be the end of our constitutional republic, assuming it even survives that long.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@WaterGirl: I am more embarrassed by white men than white women votes, but still. Of course, misogyny is powerful, just as powerful, I think, as racism. Is there a word for “man hating” comparable to “misogyny”? I remember my shock in college to discover there was a word for woman hating. That was much more serious, but I was also bemused to discover the word “defenestration”, meaning to throw someone out a window.
Steve LaBonne
@Suzanne: White Trump voters regard brown people living in fear as Trump’s greatest achievement. The warnings they should have listened to are the ones about how the billionaires are screwing them, but then they really don’t care as long as Black and brown people are screwed worse.
Chief Oshkosh
@Lyrebird: I’ve read it now, but I don’t see the connection. According to that article, Latinos are super-family oriented.
So they of course will vote for a twice-divorced pedophile who was stepping out on one of his wives while she was very pregnant, who is known to despise his two older sons and sexually yearns for his daughter, and who constantly shits all over fathers, mothers, and children as individuals and as part of their family units if they are any shade darker than his current wife.
Got it.
Suzanne
@Archon: I want the expectation to be the same for everyone, you know? Like, my husband is a straight (culturally) Christian white dude, and he voted for Harris. So’s my ex-husband. Neither of them should get cookies or praise for not being self-absorbed idiots*. They have white dude privilege, therefore I think that they have even more of a responsibility to vote the right way on behalf of others, as well as themselves.
*my exhusband can be a self-absorbed idiot, but he votes the right way.
Suzanne
@Steve LaBonne:
YUP.
They also should be the ones we most expect to set aside their personal interests and vote on behalf of the liberation of others.
Steve LaBonne
@Suzanne: As a white man, I have lower expectations of white men than of anyone else. I say that as the farthest thing from an excuse, rather in furious disgust.
Matt McIrvin
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): “Misandry” is the word, but in my experience, someone throwing that term around a lot is a red flag– nine times out of ten, what is claimed to be misandry is not.
They Call Me Noni
@JML: No argument here. We can run businesses and homes like a boss and sometimes entire states, but the country? Oh hell no! You want someone who knows how to prioritize and multi-function and get some shit done? Elect a woman!
Professor Bigfoot
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: So, you agree— the problem is white people.
Matt McIrvin
@Suzanne:
Many also identify as white, and they vote just like other white people.
There were other things going on. “Latinos” are a whole lot of very different groups. My impression is that Trump’s campaign ran ads targeting Venezuelan and Cuban immigrants that described Biden and Harris as Communist autocrats, similar to the governments they hated back home. These got Trump some votes.
Professor Bigfoot
When those cities are full of customers. Who would LOVE to have the fresh produce, free-range chicken and beef and pork, fresh from the farmer’s fields— oh, that’s right, most of those farms are producing soy and corn for the export market that just collapsed.
Shame, really.
Steve LaBonne
@Professor Bigfoot: Since 1492!
They Call Me Noni
@RevRick: Rev, I do appreciate all the nuances you present in your comments. My take on 2016 and especially 2024 is pure, unadulterated “nope, can’t have a woman president” attitude.
HRC and was so much more qualified than the man who has filed bankruptcy multiple times and would not release his taxes and has no idea how the government runs and does not read.
Kamala was so much more qualified than the man who staged a coup, was convicted of 34 felonies, was impeached twice, still doesn’t read and should not have been legally on the ballot.
And yet all those people thought he was better for this country than a woman. If Trump were a woman he would have never been elected.
suzanne
@Professor Bigfoot:
Those cities are also full of their medical care, the universities that educate them and everyone who teaches at their schools and engineers everything they use, and the professionals and creatives who produce every cultural product they consume.
They depend on us just as much as we depend on them.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Professor Bigfoot: The problem is straight, white people (though white women by only a slim majority) and the majority of men (to a much lesser degree black men). If fewer men had voted, Harris absolutely would have won. Only 46% of women voted for Trump compared with 55% of men. Fewer men and Harris wins
Note that 54% of white women voted for Trump as opposed to 55% of men of all races voting for Trump.
TEL
I’m surprised so many people are saying in this thread what I knew last year – it’s extremely unlikely we’ll elect a woman (especially a woman who isn’t white) for president anytime soon. Last time I posted that, I got a lot of “economic uncertainty” lectures, and opinion writers/podcasters are still going on about how “uniquely uninspiring” Kamala is. I wondered initially why I kept seeing “uninspiring” as a reference point for her, and finally figured out (I’m slow!) that it’s a workaround so these writers racism / misogyny isn’t obvious – they never have to say why they don’t like her, just some bland comments on the economy.
It makes me sad, but I probably won’t be voting for a woman in the next primary. I will be voting for the D candidate for president whoever it is though.
PatD
I think the Trump era can be described as a backlash to Obama’s election and the realization of many whites that they are uncomfortable with a multicultural society and a perceived loss in status and self-worth. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t consider another black man for President, right?
So, I hate that many feel that a women can’t be President in our lifetimes. I think a woman can be President in our lifetimes although it may take a full collapse of the opposition to break through. Similar to what happened in 2008.
TEL
@PatD: My feeling is we can’t afford another republican president. I would love to live in a world where I had the flexibility to vote aspirationally, but history has clearly shown just how high the deck is stacked against women. I will be voting for whichever candidate I think is best able to win.
The reason Biden won the primary in 2020 was black folks came out and loudly backed him as the best chance against Trump. It was calculated- they trusted him, but just as importantly, they thought he could win against Trump.
Another Scott
@Baud:
Just a coincidence!!! He hardly knew the guy!!11
[ groucho-roll-eyes.gif ]
Best wishes,
Scott.
Miss Bianca
@Lyrebird: I read that piece and I remain mystified by some connection I’m not seeing between “Latinos love family and community and joy and music and dancing and that’s why they voted for Trump, who hates all those things.”
Omnes Omnibus
I blame everyone, particularly Baud and Bupalos. So there, bitches!
Steve LaBonne
@suzanne: And the tax revenues that fund their heavy dependence on government benefits, both agricultural price supports and individual benefits like disability.
Bupalos
In the election prior to Obama, whites voted for the republican by a 17 point margin. In Obama’s first election, they voted for the republican by a 12 point margin. In his second, by a 20 point margin, and in the first election after him, Trump’s first election, by a 15 point margin. Back to a 17 margin for Biden’s win, then to a 15 point margin for the latest election. So during “the Trump era,” white people have voted for the Republican candidate, him, at a slightly lower rate than the historical average for a Republican.
The way you can tell that any given description of general political era is mostly wrong is that it tries to sum it up with one narrow narrative.
Bupalos
@Baud: I’ll rephrase. There is data consistent with the idea that Trump benefitted from the viral spread of his message that immigrants were a particular threat to black economic well being.
Bupalos
@Archon: I’d go with a mix of the old “pull up the ladder behind you” that every immigrant group turns to, as well as having lower educational attainment as a group, which is a pretty solid predictor of susceptibility to Trump’s… um… charms? Double the rate of “less than HS” of any other group at 24%, and the only group that has a straight majority of HS grad or less.
No One You Know
@A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan): Misandry is the work I think you’re looking for.
That said, I’m not convinced there’s anywhere NEAR as much of that as there is misogyny.
PatD
@Bupalos: Yeah, I think that’s a particularly bad faith reading. I’m not trying to do a historical analysis. I’m trying to say that many likely never thought a black man could be elected until a particular set of factors presented themselves. And so, I’m hopeful that a woman can be elected.
RevRick
@JoyceH: That huge swing to Trump by Hispanic and black males can be explained by two things:
1). A hazy, positive remembrance of economic and social conditions under Trump’s first presidency. He liked to brag about how great black employment was when he was president. Also crime hit historic lows before COVID.
They knew he was a nasty piece of work, but they perceived it more as sound and fury signifying nothing..
2. Those groups were hardest hit by COVID. Most of the dying, the surge in crime, and inflation affected their lives and their families the most. They were the front line workers who were made to feel their lives were expendable. They were the ones most affected by the social disorder caused by COVID. It was their brothers and children who got murdered in the streets. Their rents surged the most in relation to their income.
Human beings under those circumstances do not think straight. The only thing they care about is making the pain go away.
In their view, the Biden administration had failed. Harris was saddled with that debt.
It’s important to note that Trump only gained 3 million votes, while Harris lost 6 million compared to the 2020 results. Those 9 million votes reflected pain more than anything else.
If we try to dismiss those nine million people as assholes or racists or misogynists, I feel that is more a case of our own smug self-righteousness than reality.
WaterGirl
@PatD: Me, too!
I remember canvassing for Obama in 2008, and some guy answering his door talked about what an idiot John McCain was for saying everything was just fine.
Then he said, “I guess I’m gonna have to vote for the [n-word].”
We may see that sort of sentiment again because of how bad things are now, although I suppose it would be I guess I’m gonna have to vote for the bitch.
I’ll take them as voters, though, no matter how repellant they are!
Paul in KY
@WaterGirl: Thanks! No big deal on whatever pearls of wisdom I shared :-)
Paul in KY
@Steve LaBonne: Numerically, them voting wrong is what does it.
Paul in KY
@Chief Oshkosh: Clear as day…
Paul in KY
@They Call Me Noni: If VP Harris and Sen. Clinton had been male, they’d have whupped him by 12%.
LAC
That someone as malignant as Mango Mussolini made some strides in 2024 within the black and hispanic communities is not shocking – we know that not all skin folk are kinfolk and we have always had pockets of folks who will cape to “if its white, its right”. But I am feeling here that this is another attempt to negate the troubling voting patterns of white people, especially since the large majority of our votes were for Harris. (btw). Hispanic voters, so deeply impacted by this fascist regime, will come out of this FAFO period, profoundly changed. What is worrying is that I am not sure we can say the same about +51% white voters. And if this is not focused on by TPTB, rather than”oh look, here is a poll” then what is going to happen? I mean, what is the strategy here, “allies”? Besides deflection?
LAC
@WaterGirl: awwww, that is … wonderful? I mean, yeah, that is outreach, right?
😳
RevRick
@Paul in KY: Why not make it 20% or any other fantasy number. Counter-factuals are purely speculative. Especially when you are dealing with so few data points.
Paul in KY
@RevRick: Cool! 20% then.