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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

There is one struggling party in US right now, and it’s not the Democrats.

Let’s show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

The frogs are rarely mistaken.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

If West Virginia and San Francisco had a love child.

No Justins, No Peace

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

Democrats have delivered the Square Deal, the New Deal, the Fair Deal, and now… the Big Joe Biden Deal.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: April 17, 2024

by Anne Laurie|  April 17, 20246:19 am| 12 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus, Foreign Affairs

1/n Some good news, according to CDC we’re almost at the lowest number of new Covid hospitalizations in the U.S.since the beginning of the pandemic… pic.twitter.com/Yw17S9b3tt

— Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD (@PeterHotez) April 13, 2024

Last night's update: 63,096 new cases, 768 new deaths https://t.co/lDtk1Yib1G

— BNO News (@BNOFeed) April 15, 2024

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So far this year, nearly 3 million cases of COVID have been reported in the U.S., causing 259,346 hospitalizations and 26,079 deaths.

— BNO News (@BNOFeed) April 15, 2024

1. Update on the fading #flu / #Covid /#RSV season: For the first time since the week of ending Nov 5, the percentage of outpatient med visits for #influenza-like illnesses was below the national baseline last week, which is effectively the sign that #flu
season is over. pic.twitter.com/jppoHOAwpg

— Helen Branswell 🇨🇦 (@HelenBranswell) April 12, 2024

======

Biden administration announces new partnership with 50 countries to stifle future pandemics https://t.co/ZHQNQ7iAXr

— The Washington Times (@WashTimes) April 16, 2024

Vaccination reduced the risk of #LongCovid by ~40% in the entire population (5.4 million) of Norway https://t.co/pwVRT1fhh8 and reduced cardiovascular and thrombotic events @NhungPharma@LancetRespirMed pic.twitter.com/DD1qAUKB2L

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 12, 2024

Canadian COVID Forecast Apr 13-26, 2024

CANADA

MODERATE (no change)

About 1 in every 75 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~5X higher
-Deaths ~2X higher pic.twitter.com/hX6YpcM7ti

— Tara Moriarty (@MoriartyLab) April 14, 2024

======

New, outstanding feature on #LongCovid and clinical trial efforts to address persistence of #SARSCoV2https://t.co/awlDDnMPxS@ScienceMagazine @jcouzin pic.twitter.com/rfUPHV3zsW

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 11, 2024

Specific nasal cells in children have been found to protect against #Covid. There are important differences in how nasal cells of children vs. the elderly respond to the virus & may explain why kids typically experience milder #Covid symptoms https://t.co/m7BtnCn6hj pic.twitter.com/K0PuuLfhIB

— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) April 15, 2024

The marked differences in response to #SARSCoV2 infection by age may, at least in part, be explained by age-specific changes in our nasal epithelial cells https://t.co/JY8j5NYKSl@NatureMicrobiol @Dr_ClaireSmith @drmarkonikolic @UCLchildhealth pic.twitter.com/OMLFLRN297

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 15, 2024

Large-scale analysis of patients with #LongCcvid after hospitalization reveals distinct subtypes. Indeed, 1 in 10 patients w/ #Covid develop post-Covid syndrome. Yet, there are nuances of difference in the manifestation of #LongCovid & its duration https://t.co/fjKKSbLKUK

— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) April 15, 2024

Approved in Japan, this self-amplifying Covid vaccine that uses much lower doses of mRNA, with less side-effects and potential longer duration of efficacy, is a better template than current mRNA shotshttps://t.co/bNygFxMxkQ pic.twitter.com/U5G9ANQFwK

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) April 11, 2024

Blood donor study finds 21% incidence of long-term symptoms attributed to COVID-19

Among blood donors with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, 23.6% reported long-term neurologic symptomshttps://t.co/FBcuCRmaGI pic.twitter.com/t6a194ydJq

— CIDRAP (@CIDRAP) April 9, 2024

Johns Hopkins: AI can now detect COVID-19 in lung ultrasound images

The AI analyzes ultrasound lung images to spot B-lines, which appear as bright, vertical abnormalities and indicate inflammation in patients with pulmonary complications.

JHUhttps://t.co/o5e6yloqdj

— CoronaHeadsUp (@CoronaHeadsUp) April 16, 2024

Feds launch indoor air quality research program

The group is looking for research proposals on indoor air biosensors, respiratory virus risk assessment software, and optimizing building controls.https://t.co/gIW4Udk07s

Photo: Michael Casey/Flickr cc pic.twitter.com/NXC852UcuM

— CIDRAP (@CIDRAP) April 12, 2024

Important covid clues! Researchers find that macrophages – the cells that usually scavenge and destroy viruses – are the cells most susceptible to being infected/hijacked by SARS-CoV-2, using CD209 (not ACE2) receptors. Promising target for new drugs!????https://t.co/aELZA202Vp pic.twitter.com/TqqkIahw2x

— Noha Aboelata, MD (@NohaAboelataMD) April 12, 2024

There is no evidence that Covid vaccines cause fatal cardiac arrest or other deadly heart problems in teens and young adults, a CDC report finds.

The new analysis debunks widespread misinformation about the mRNA vaccines. https://t.co/kfISU93J8O

— NBC News (@NBCNews) April 11, 2024

This quote leapt out to me from this article:
🔥🔥"The fact that every new SARS-CoV-2 infection has the potential to become chronic is perhaps the single most concerning aspect of this virus.” @microbeminded2
YEP.https://t.co/lCzOkA41hz

— tern (@1goodtern) April 11, 2024

======

Bernie Sanders calls for $1 billion for long-COVID moonshot

Sanders has asked long COVID patients, health providers, and researchers to weigh in on draft legislation. https://t.co/2SSDmyumMz pic.twitter.com/CW9ImzLnqk

— CIDRAP (@CIDRAP) April 10, 2024

If you ever wonder what living without a sense of shame is like, I give you ‘Ka$h Patel.’ pic.twitter.com/109FBwRpuO

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) April 15, 2024

Remember this? In a bizarre move, Trump started his COVID-19 press briefing with a compilation of complimentary videos.
Americans were suffering and Trump was more concerned about his positive press coverage. pic.twitter.com/JjrnAtinBm

— American Bridge 21st Century (@American_Bridge) April 14, 2024

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: April 17, 2024Post + Comments (12)

On The Road – BillinGlendaleCA – The Milky Way Reimagined.

by WaterGirl|  April 17, 20245:00 am| 12 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging

🐾BillinGlendaleCA

I’ve been shooting nightscapes featuring the Milky Way for almost 7 years, shooting with 4 differenty cameras.  First was with the Samsung NX500, then the NX1 which were smaller sensor cameras.  Last year I moved to a full frame camera with the Sony A7iv which has better light gathering abilities as well as a wider field of view.

In July, I added the astro converted A7r to my toolkit.  This was turning point in my astrophotography journey: first, when I took my first shots of the Milky Way, everything was red, so I had to set a custom white balance to get everything to look “normal”; second, I started to take more narrow field shots of nebula and galaxies(you’ve seen some of those here at On The Road).  The later change in focus, lead to considering different processing software than I’d been using in the past(Sequator, Lightroom, and Photoshop) as well as differing techniques to process these photos.  Most of the experienced deep space use a program called PixInsight at $250 is a bit out of my price range, so I went with Sirli a free open source app which had just been updated with many improvements and leaned how to use it thanks to the wonderful videos by Rich at Deep Space Astro on YouTube.

I’ve been mostly confined to home the past 5 months, first due to a tire on the Prius that I’ve not been able to get replaced, by work, by inclement weather that seems to coincide with my days off from work and the disaster with my star tracker that I mentioned on my last appearance on these pages.

This has given me time to think about some of the shots I’ve taken in the past and ways to make them better.  I’ve had two problems with my more recent work(say the last 5 years), light pollution leading to discoloration of the Milky Way and lack of contrast, and color consistency between my shots.  The Milky Way core in even my most recent shots has varied with too much yellow and too much red, the portion of the Milky Way above the core was usually hard to see, since increasing the brightness and contrast there affected the rest of the picture, even using a gradient.

I could go with what a fellow photographer on a FB page devoted to the Mojave desert produces, white stars and a dark blue background but I want to capture the violent and chaotic nature of the core of galaxy with stars of many colors drawn to the center of the galaxy by the super massive black hole and the swirling clouds of dust.  Sirli helps in two aspects, I have more control over the light pollution by being able to do what is called Background Extraction that removes gradients in the shot and Color Calibration that neutralizes the background color and I can calibrate the same set of stars for each shot.  I’m pretty happy with the results.

If you like these shots, consider subscribing to my Patreon at BillinGlendaleCA | creating Photos | Patreon.

On The Road - BillinGlendaleCA - The Milky Way Reimagined. 7
Thousand Oaks, CAAugust 15, 2022

I grew up in TO, I never remember seeing the Milky Way.  When I was hiking down to Point Mugu State Park, I noticed these peaks and thought it would be a great foreground for a Milky Way shot, if only the light pollution wasn’t so bad.  I decided to try anyway.  When I arrived the Milky Way was barely visible, and only if you knew where to look.  I snapped 40 shots with my NX1 and a foreground shot with the landscape being lit by the street lights behind me.  I shared those shots with you last year.  With these shots, after background extraction and color calibration, as I stretched the image to brighten it, it was like watching the image start to appear on the photo paper back in my darkroom as a teenager in TO.

On The Road – BillinGlendaleCA – The Milky Way Reimagined.Post + Comments (12)

Cold Grey Pre-Dawn Open Thread: Fading Neom Dreams

by Anne Laurie|  April 17, 20243:36 am| 34 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Foreign Affairs, Schadenfreude

MBS is such a visionary leader that he will achieve the once impossible feat of bankrupting Saudi Arabia https://t.co/1LWKAaR75D

— Alexander Clarkson  (@APHClarkson) April 4, 2024

Man, who would have guessed that 105-mile-long glass-walled megacity in Saudi Arabia might not come to fruition after all. https://t.co/8T06I5MTet

— Eric Fish (@ericfish85) April 13, 2024

Continuing the theme of ‘rich narcissists embarrassing themselves’… Per the Guardian, “End of the Line? Saudi Arabia ‘forced to scale back’ plans for desert megacity”:

It was billed as a glass-walled city of the future, an ambitious centrepiece of the economic plan backed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to transition Saudi Arabia away from oil dependency.

Now, however, plans for the mirror-clad desert metropolis called the Line have been scaled down and the project, which was envisaged to stretch 105 miles (170km) is expected to reach just a mile and a half by 2030.

Dreamed up as a linear city that would eventually be home to about 9 million people on a footprint of just 13 sq miles, the Line is part of a wider Neom project. Now at least one contractor has begun dismissing workers.

The scaling down of Prince Mohammed’s most grandiose project was reported by Bloomberg, which said it had seen documents relating to the project.

The project, which had been slated to cost $1.5tn (£1.2tn), was pitched as a reinvention of urban design. However, it has long attracted scepticism and criticism, not least after the reported execution of several members of the Howeitat tribe who had protested over plans to construct on their ancestral lands.

Then there were reports of Prince Mohammed’s changing vision for the project, budget overspends and an ever-changing roster of key staff, with some who have worked on the project describing it as “untethered from reality”.

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According to Bloomberg, the scaling back of the Line comes as the overall Neom budget for 2024 has yet to be approved by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund amid declining cash reserves…

Prince Mohammed, who has long been accused of involvement in the killing of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in 2018, had described the city project as “tackling the challenges facing humanity in urban life today” to “shine a light on alternative ways to live”.

Not everyone, however, has been convinced by the prince’s glossy prospectus. Writing in the New York Times in 2021 at the time Neom released a video describing the prospects of living between the city’s silvered walls, the US journalist and author Robert Worth said: “To watch the crown prince’s promotional video is to be immersed in a distinctively Saudi form of arrogance, blending religious triumphalism and royal grandiosity.”…

MBS is giving out true Shah Reza Pahlavi vibes here pic.twitter.com/V0gBT8kVNZ

— Alexander Clarkson  (@APHClarkson) April 4, 2024

MBS’s ‘Mirrored Terrarium Living‘ appeared, to me, quite as overambitious as a certain American-based oligarch’s ‘Mars, beyotchs!‘ fantasies… but MBS had advantages such as ‘currently invaluable resource reserves’ and ‘ability to murder any locals who harshed his mellow’. Turns out even that may not be enough!

The original Bloomberg article is extremely paywalled, but here’s a reprint from Malaysia’s The Star:

… The crown prince, or MBS as he is known, wants foreign investors to transfer expertise and co-fund megaprojects like the one to develop Neom. That US$500bil plan envisions turning the remote north-western region into a carbon-free high tech hub filled with robots.

While Neom has rolled out marketing and investor roadshows, it’s not made serious progress raising capital yet, people familiar with the matter said.

It’s not just along the less-developed coastline that projects are facing headwinds. Near the capital, an entertainment city dubbed Qiddiya has more than US$1 trillion of committed spending – but that’s backed entirely by the PIF and a Saudi developer it owns, two people briefed on the project said.

“If we don’t have clear evidence of more funding by the end of the year, then it’s certainly worth asking where the money is going to come from for these projects,” said David Dawkins from London-based investment data firm Preqin, which analyses Saudi trends.

“They are insanely expensive.”Delays approving regulations for Neom have left question marks for investors. Many said their reluctance to commit funds to the kingdom is often down to unclear and untested laws governing contracts and investment…

But the government, burning through cash, is stepping up efforts to attract much more foreign money. It asked smaller neighbour Kuwait for over US$16bil in financing for projects including Neom as recently as this year, people familiar with the matter said.

At stake for MBS are ambitions synonymous with Vision 2030. While companies like US-based Air Products have signed on for joint ventures at Neom, Saudi Arabia is still on the hook for underwriting close to the entirety of the cost – roughly equivalent to half its current economic output. —Bloomberg

What are the chances of The Line ever being completed and occupied?https://t.co/Troa8RDLvk

— @[email protected] (@roygrubb) April 4, 2024

Cold Grey Pre-Dawn Open Thread: Fading Neom DreamsPost + Comments (34)

Tuesday Late Night Post

by WaterGirl|  April 16, 202410:30 pm| 57 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Just too funny not to share.

Here’s Trump re-enacting the share price pic.twitter.com/KFMcR7JJrd

— Daniel (@kacang_tua) April 16, 2024

DougJ After Dark

Speaker Mike Johnson is facing rebellion within the Republican conference. Can Lauren Boebert lend a hand to firm up support?

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) April 16, 2024

Open thread!

Tuesday Late Night PostPost + Comments (57)

War for Ukraine Day 783: The GOP House Majority’s Dysfunction Is Actively Harming Ukraine

by Adam L Silverman|  April 16, 20249:28 pm| 38 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

We know what “they doin ova der,” they’re making things worse.

I’m going to try to keep this brief tonight, but we have a lot to cover and a significant chunk is the GOP majority in the House of Representatives is eating itself.

Ukraine has "no chance of winning" its war with Russia, if it doesn't receive additional aid from the United States, Ukrainian President @ZelenskyyUa tells @IAmAmnaNawaz. pic.twitter.com/Bb5XgXto9K

— PBS NewsHour (@NewsHour) April 15, 2024

New:

– Dems furious Johnson isn’t putting the Senate bill on the floor
– Some not ruling out voting for the rule if needed
– Inclusion of humanitarian aid $ could be pivotal for many Dem votes
– Leadership keeping their powder dry@Axios https://t.co/BZiJ0tR14e

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) April 16, 2024

From Axios:

House Democrats were incensed at the Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan aid plan House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rolled out on Monday — but they are not ruling out saving it if necessary.

Why it matters: Several Republican hardliners who are opposed to Ukraine aid and irked by a lack of border security language have not ruled out sabotaging a key procedural vote that typically passes along party lines.

  • “I have a hard time believing we’re going to give something to Ukraine without doing our border,” said Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.).
  • Some are also perturbed about the process: Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) said it is “a process to a predetermined outcome … designed to appear open.”
  • “I think it’s going to take Democrats to pass the rule,” one House Democrat told Axios.

Driving the news: The House is expected to hold four separate votes, including on aid packages for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

What they’re saying: The predominant reaction of Democrats on Monday was irritation that Johnson is not simply holding a vote on the Senate bill.

  • “We have delayed this now for months, because this party is so dysfunctional … they’re constantly trying to pander to every faction,” former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told Axios.
  • Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said “like everything these guys do, it’s an exercise in improvisation … it just speaks to the recklessness and cluelessness of this Republican majority.”
  • “They just can’t bring themselves to do the right thing, the obvious thing, put the damn Senate bill on the floor,” Huffman added.

Yes, but: Several moderate and swing-district Democrats signaled that they would be open to voting for the rule through gritted teeth if necessary.

  • “This is one of the most critical votes that we’ll take, so I’m very open to whatever it takes to get this done,” said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).
  • Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) told Axios: “Republicans have played politics with this … for six months. I would hope that my colleagues don’t play politics with it either.”
  • “Look, I mean, the people back home, they want bipartisanship and I want to give it to them,” said Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.).

Between the lines: “It is a desperate situation in Ukraine, and Democrats are very driven to get aid to Ukraine at this point,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.).

What to watch: Some Democrats said their votes would likely depend on the inclusion of humanitarian aid in the bill.

  • Hoyer said excising that funding would be “irresponsible” and “inimical to the interests of the United States.”
  • “It’s very hard for me to vote for a rule under any circumstances, but to vote for a rule … without the humanitarian issues, that’s going to be very hard,” said Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.).

More at the link!

This means — after Gallagher resigns — Johnson would almost certainly need Democrats to save his job if the motion to oust him comes up for a vote.

Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz says he would save Mike Johnson’s job if MTG brings motion to oust him. 

Others like Democratic… https://t.co/aRDZEOjGKy

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) April 16, 2024

This means — after Gallagher resigns — Johnson would almost certainly need Democrats to save his job if the motion to oust him comes up for a vote.

Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz says he would save Mike Johnson’s job if MTG brings motion to oust him.

Others like Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi also said they would vote to save Johnson

“Democrats don’t even let her rename post offices, I’m not gonna let her make a motion to vacate,” Moskowitz told me

That’s funny because it’s true!

Beyond EPIC pic.twitter.com/BRAMt830x2

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 16, 2024

Oy vey!

Members of the GOP House majority are using this mess of their own making to advance their own ambitions for power:

NEW: House Republicans are privately questioning Johnson's long-term political future — and some are quietly positioning themselves for possible leadership shakeup further down the line.

Emmer's moves being watched closely. He's repaired relationship w/ Trump & attended…

— Melanie Zanona (@MZanona) April 16, 2024

NEW: House Republicans are privately questioning Johnson’s long-term political future — and some are quietly positioning themselves for possible leadership shakeup further down the line.

Emmer’s moves being watched closely. He’s repaired relationship w/ Trump & attended roundtable with Trump ahead of PA rally. Some allies also trying to gauge his standing in GOP, tho Emmer not involved and is fully behind Johnson.

new details w/ @AnnieGrayerCNN & @mkraju

https://cnn.com/2024/04/16/politics/mike-johnson-revolt-house-gop-leadership

Because of course they are!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Ukraine Will Request a Meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council – Address of the President of Ukraine

16 April 2024 – 20:03

Dear Ukrainians!

The key points of the day.

First, the Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and the Defense Minister Umerov delivered a report. It was about the situation at our frontline and our defensive actions. The task is obvious: to maximize the deterrence of Russian assaults and to repel every attack of the occupier.

Second, the heads of the Special Services, including the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, reported on countering internal threats, and, of course, on the efforts of the personnel to defend Ukraine against the occupier. Right now, we can see that Ukrainian Special Services are very effective in eliminating the enemy. Today I would like to mention the results of the soldiers of the Centre of Special Operations “A” of the Security Service of Ukraine. They effectively destroy Russian surface-to-air missile systems. Thank you! I would also like to mention the officers of the SSU’s 13th Main Directorate of the Military Counterintelligence Department, who are doing everything to suppress Russia’s ability to terrorize Ukraine. They are destroying Russian radar stations, which were used, in particular, for Russian aviation and guided bombing. We will destroy absolutely everything that harms Ukraine. And I thank each and every one of our soldiers, the Security Service of Ukraine, all the special services and units that are doing their best to protect our country and our people.

Third. I held a preparatory meeting with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, the representatives of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, and the Office. We are currently preparing an agenda for the National Security and Defense Council to discuss the threats to the security of our state and society posed by the proliferation of online casinos and the lack of control over this area. All opportunities in this area to manipulate people and harm the interests of society must and will be blocked. It is also important to mention the author of the relevant petition, the petition to restrict online casinos, which started the discussion today. It was a Ukrainian soldier, Junior Sergeant Pavlo Petrychenko, a soldier of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade. Yesterday, he was killed in a battle. My condolences to Pavlo’s family and friends. The existence of our entire Ukraine is made up of the lives and aspirations, the will and achievements of such men and women. Many of those who could not and do not imagine Ukraine apart from their own actions to protect it, to develop it, to strengthen it. We all should remember that Ukraine is made up of people who care, who really care, about what will happen to Ukraine. We must always remember every such person, always support them, and do whatever we can to ensure that our country withstands the invader and protects its people, its land, and its independence. I am confident that it will.

And one more thing. We work every day without a single break to increase our potential in the world — in our relations with partners. We work to get more real help. To achieve true equality in the defense against terror, when the same, truly equal rules apply to us here in Ukraine, in Europe, and in other parts of the world, when we face the same manifestations of terror, the same missile and drone attacks. In the last two days we have heard all kinds of things. About different conflicts — here in Europe and in the Middle East — different levels of threats, different airspace. Although the “Shahed” drones and ballistics are the same… Different threats of escalation. But are human lives different, are people’s values different? No, they are not. We value every life equally. We must do so. We must protect them from terror on the same level. Ukraine will request a meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council to discuss the protection of the skies, the supply of anti-aircraft warfare, relevant systems and missiles. We are actively working now to ensure a productive first Global Peace Summit in June. We thank all the leaders and states that have expressed this week their willingness to participate in the Summit in Switzerland. I would like to express my special gratitude for the efforts of Olaf, Mr. Chancellor, for his leadership and relevant international communication — for the signals we have heard from Beijing. China can really help us restore the just peace for Ukraine and the stability in international relations. The Summit in Switzerland gives us all a real chance to make the Charter of the United Nations, its goals and principles, really work.

I thank everyone who helps! I thank each and every one of you who defends our country, our people and the common justice that is equal for all nations! And may the memory of all Ukrainians who gave their lives for Ukraine be eternal and bright!

Glory to Ukraine!

Russia launched eleven missiles at Trypilska power plant, that supplies Kyiv with electricity. The first seven, we took down. Four destroyed Trypilska. Why? Because we had zero missiles. We ran out of all missiles. — Zelensky for PBS pic.twitter.com/mJlHr2LNYR

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 16, 2024

The West is afraid of Russia's defeat in Ukraine due to the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation and strengthening of China, which will seize part of the Russian Federation's territories – President Zelensky in an interview with PBS.

"There are voices coming from the West… pic.twitter.com/F25lfN4LwW

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 16, 2024

The West is afraid of Russia’s defeat in Ukraine due to the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation and strengthening of China, which will seize part of the Russian Federation’s territories – President Zelensky in an interview with PBS.

“There are voices coming from the West saying that we are afraid. What’s going to happen to Russia if Russia loses? So, are they not afraid that we are dying here every day? But they’re very afraid that there will be some sort of a danger, some sort of a migration crisis? What’s going to happen? Maybe China will be very strong. And if Russia will panic and have a revolution, then China will capture part of the territory of Russia, et cetera. So everyone is afraid. God forbid China will be strong. God forbid there would be no Putin and there will be many countries (on the territory of the Russian Federation – Ed.). What’s going to happen to Russia’s nuclear weapons? What will happen to Russia’s nuclear weapons?”, Zelenskyy asked.

Here’s the full video of President Zelenskyy’s interview with PBS’s Newshour:

The cost:

"The first dawn of 2023" by the fallen warrior Pavlo Petrychenko, killed in action a few hours before his birthday. I genuinely don't understand why my nation has to endure all this pain, terror and injustice pic.twitter.com/lnyC0C0NZP

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 16, 2024

The differences between how Israel is protected by the US and its allies and partners – both NATO and non-NATO – and how Ukraine is being given voice by the Ukrainians:

Of course, Western militaries will never be protecting Ukrainian skies from drones and missiles as they do with Israel.

Because that is Iran, and this is Russia, and this world is neither fair nor supposed to univocally stand for the good and combat the evil.

Of course,…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 16, 2024

Of course, Western militaries will never be protecting Ukrainian skies from drones and missiles as they do with Israel.

Because that is Iran, and this is Russia, and this world is neither fair nor supposed to univocally stand for the good and combat the evil.

Of course, London, Paris, Warsaw, or Washington D.C. will never be willing to be directly involved in repelling Russian aggression in Ukraine – because it’s not Quaddafi, not al-Assad, or ISIS affiliates in Africa, or the Taliban.

That’s why we have always been saying that providing the Ukrainian military with all necessary aid is a win-win strategy – we get to save our country from extermination, you get to deter and curtail the world’s biggest war at the moment with not a single European or American serviceperson involved in hostilities.

Moreover, helping Ukraine defeat the Kremlin’s killing spree was applicably reducing the likelihood of the West’s unwanted direct military intervention – which is just what Western leaders and Western public opinion quite expectedly want.

But you know, surprisingly enough, two years of escalation management, trying to ‘save Putin’s face,’ procrastination, and petty politics gave Putin 2 years to recover and prepare for a large-scale, prolonged war of territorial grabs he has zero reasons to stop.

Moreover, given what’s happening now to the West in general, the Kremlin is now as confident and encouraged to do whatever the hell it wants ® to Ukraine and beyond.

Putin is more than happy to have this war by his rules, under which Russia is fully entitled to any sort of atrocities and massive war crimes against Ukraine, and Ukraine must somehow watch out for Russia’s precious oil production – otherwise, Russians will throw a nuclear escalation tantrum into Jake Sullivan’s phone.

He is more than happy to see the West restricting itself to absurdity in the light of the biggest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler. Why not take more, and more, and more, and more, if the West seems to be ready to give up everything at any price?

I honestly don’t know how myopic one needs to be to fail to see that these two years of half-measures and appeasement only made things worse and only made a direct NATO-Russia clash more probable.

See, Vladimir Putin doesn’t care how good-intended, pro-peace, and anti-war you are. He sees weakness, he sees an invitation for more aggression, he sees an easy way to get ‘yet another grand geopolitical victory’ with no consequences.

The only realistic way to stop him in Ukraine is to provide Ukraine with arms to overwhelm this increasingly hungry monster and bring peace back to us all.

And don’t get me started on how Ukraine should ‘stand on its own’ and ‘stop begging for aid’ – I’d love to see a list of nations that would be able to wage a years-long, full-scale, high-intensity war against an adversary as gargantuan as Russia and with no allies or backers.

This war can still end with the free world’s victory in Ukraine and without Putin’s bloodlust spilling out into the Baltic nations, Moldova, Scandinavia, Poland etc.

There’s still time and a chance, even though a lot has been stupidly lost.

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Everyone’s favorite think tank Russia SME and a Hopkins-SAIS Kissinger Center distinguished professor had an essay published in Foreign Affairs today. Some of it is interesting, all of it is incredibly credulous. It was not met with a lot of acclaim.

While Ukraine is not getting basic aid necessary for our survival, you all of a sudden recalled an important topic to research into, that "putin was surprisingly ready for serious concessions and may be again". Surely, with the russian war machine in full mode, with 550 B $ oil…

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 16, 2024

While Ukraine is not getting basic aid necessary for our survival, you all of a sudden recalled an important topic to research into, that “putin was surprisingly ready for serious concessions and may be again”. Surely, with the russian war machine in full mode, with 550 B $ oil and gas profits, Iranian, North Korean and Chinese help.

Also, Charap can very be proud of his previous wise and strategic analysis, too: we’re experiencing just now how Western weapons aren’t making any difference in Ukraine. Every night, seeing how lack of air defenses impact our economy, energy system, and our lives.

There's nothing 'complicated' about this lost paradise of the 'Istanbul deal that could have ended the war' – the Kremlin was never even closely serious about those 'contacts' with Ukraine, and it was forwarding knowingly unacceptable and absurd demands while regrouping for a new…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 16, 2024

There’s nothing ‘complicated’ about this lost paradise of the ‘Istanbul deal that could have ended the war’ – the Kremlin was never even closely serious about those ‘contacts’ with Ukraine, and it was forwarding knowingly unacceptable and absurd demands while regrouping for a new offensive in Donbas following the March setback at Kyiv.

The problem is that certain high-browed armchair strategists somehow persuaded themselves that Putin was a good-faith dove of peace offering a perfect deal he’d respect forevermore, while those dumb, mean Ukrainians rejected his noble gesture because Boris Johnson made them do so.

Mark my words based on real world experience from 25+ years. Russia has never had a genuine intention to negotiate a peace deal in the first phase of the war on Ukraine. Its modus operandi against Ukraine between 2014-2022 was attack-negotiate-cease fire-attack, rinse & repeat. https://t.co/T5znQe5iMj

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) April 16, 2024

Daniel Szeligowski, the Head of Research Programme and Senior Research Fellow on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs had a long, detailed, very interesting assessment that picked most of Charap’s and Radchenko’s essay apart, while also breaking some new information. Here it is from the Thread Reader App:

🧵 This is already making rounds, so I will try to shed some more light on March/April 2022 Ukraine-Russia talks since the article is still far from the point, and because Poland played a much bigger role than anyone is willing to admit publicly

The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in UkraineA hidden history of diplomacy that came up short—but holds lessons for future negotiations.https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine
You can easily Google this photo. This is just a tip of the icebergImage
And you can easily Google this photo as well. Resemblance is purely coincidental (until it is not)Image
Charap & Radchenko rely heavily on the *Western* sources, but these were interesting times when our Western colleagues found themselves not being really in the loop, although they happily provide you with some post-factum interpretation today 
We were never close to any deal. Russia never negotiated in good faith. Moscow sent a delegation that was composed of the most anti-Ukrainian officials you can imagine. Their goal was to present the Ukrainian side with an ultimatum, not to *negotiate*

During the talks, the Russian officials issued threats against members of the Ukrainian delegation and their families. This pretty tells you what the Russian attitude was at that particular time 
While still in Belarus, the Russian delegation openly suggested to the Ukrainian delegation that they declare capitulation. Ukrainians responded with a now legendary sentence: иди на хуй (roughly: f* off) 
The talks moved to Turkey then. On the plane, members of the Ukrainian delegation had symptoms of poisoning. Later on, test results proved an unknown chemical substance in the body of now Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov. Russians “sent a message” – we can get you 
Russia never abandoned its maximalist goal. Realising that the plan to seize Kyiv “in three days” had failed, Moscow wanted to subjugate Ukraine at the negotiating table, but missed the moment when the fortune turned in favour of Ukraine and they were thrown out from Kyiv region 
Unlike our Western colleagues, Poland believed from the beginning that the Russians were bluffing and so we advised accordingly our Ukrainian friends. We were in a pretty comfortable position to do it, since Polish SOF provided security for the Ukrainian delegation 
Yes, Ukraine was ready to make concessions, but they were conditional on western security guarantees, which the West was ultimately not ready to give (one reason was that our western colleagues simply did not know much about the talks as such) 
The talks collapsed because the Russians never negotiated seriously, and so they did not show due flexibility (contrary to what Charap and Radchenko claim). Russia demanded Ukraine’s demilitarisation and aimed at sanctioning of Russian influence over Ukrainian domestic 
And then Bucha came. The scale of Russian crimes was so huge that it shocked even the Polish side (which, after all, has experienced Russian atrocities itself). Further talks with Russia were simply no-go for Zelensky, especially that Russian troops were already on defensive 
Ever since, Russians have argued that an agreement with Ukraine was close, but the West intervened, notably Boris Johnson, whom Russia accused of forcing Ukraine to abandon the negotiations 
This bears no relation to reality, of course, but somehow still resonates with many of the Western decision-makers and their pundits. But Velina puts nicely what I think of that as well:

If you wanna know *a bit* more, please read this article, published by an authoritative Polish media outlet. Yep, it’s in Polish, but Google Translate or AI would do the job these days

Komandosi na Białorusi i delikatna misja w Turcji. Kulisy polskich operacji podczas wojny na Ukrainie [OPINIA]Żołnierze z polskich oddziałów specjalnych ochraniali oligarchę Romana Abramowicza, który był pośrednikiem w rozmowach ukraińsko-rosyjskich w pierwszych tygodniach wojny. Zapewniali również bezpieczeń…https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/8680269,zolnierze-polskie-oddzialy-specjalne-wojna-w-ukrainie-komandosi.html
I admit that Charap & Radchenko did a good job, this is possibly the best article on Ukraine-Russia talks I have ever read. The problem is that the point of reference is so lame. And that’s why even a good text doesn’t reflect half of what really happened these days of 2022 
On a last note – the flawed theory that Ukraine-Russia deal was reportedly almost there has been and will be used in the public debate to share the narrative that Ukraine should accept the Russian demands (since it reportedly accepted them in 2022, which, again, was *not* true) 
I don’t think that Charap and Radchenko deliberately omitted Poland and the Polish sources. I guess they have simply been unaware of the role that Poland played in the whole story. Western experts often think that Central Europe has no agency, but sometimes we prove them wrong :) 

So we now know that Polish SOF were providing the personal security detail (PSD) for the Ukrainian negotiators. We also now have independent confirmation that the Russians had actually poisoned members of the Ukrainian delegation, which we covered at the time back in 2o22. Szeligowski is far more generous that I am towards Charap and Radchenko by giving them the benefit of the doubt that they are making a good faith effort with this essay. You can read the whole thing if you like, but if you’ve been reading along her since the first war update, you already know the history, so what you’re reading for would be the author’s interpretation of events from a selective reading of selective documentation. The naivete to believe after Grozny and Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, and eastern Moldova now doing business as Transnistria that anyone believes Putin and his diplomatic and national security teams are good faith negotiators is just astoundingly naive.

More interesting and informative, is this Economist interview with Ukraine’s new national security chief.

NOT MANY non-Russians know Russia as well as Oleksandr Lytvynenko. Ukraine’s new national security chief spent five formative years in Moscow as a cryptology cadet at the elite KGB Academy. More recently, as head of Ukraine’s foreign-intelligence service during two years of war, he busied himself undermining and extracting information from his one-time peers. At the end of March, he took over one of the country’s most critical jobs.

So Mr Lytvynenko deserves to be listened to. And he has a warning for those Western politicians (Donald Trump being the most notorious example) thinking about pushing a premature peace deal on Ukraine which would require it to give up territory. “Putin has lied, is lying, and will continue to lie.” Ceding territory to Russia in return for peace would be a “cruel betrayal” of the Ukrainians left under violent occupation, he says. Many more innocent people would be killed, more would be thrown into cellars.

But there is a more pragmatic reason to reject it, too. An agreement made with a compulsive liar probably means only one thing: him regrouping, rearming and trying for more in two or three years. Russia’s leader is “addicted” to the idea of conquering Ukraine, Mr Lytvynenko says. “The next time he won’t make mistakes, but will prepare his operation much more carefully, according to all the laws of military art.”

Things were not supposed to have turned out like this for Russia, of course. Ukraine was not expected to put up a fight. Russian soldiers were supposed to be parading in Kyiv within days of the invasion. With his “blitzkrieg”, Mr Putin’s aim was to present the West with a fait accompli, Mr Lytvynenko argues. “He wanted to say: Ukraine’s over, guys, now let’s talk on my terms.” Ukraine’s heroism foiled that plan. It also fundamentally changed the negotiation. “Now a victory over the West can only come if Putin first has victory in Ukraine. In Russians’ minds, victory in Ukraine means victory over the United States.”

Has the message got through to those who need to hear it? Mr Lytvynenko heaves a sigh, and delivers a politician’s line, stressing Ukraine’s “critical partnership with the American state…regardless of who is in power.” This week, Congress might finally begin the task of signing off on much-needed military assistance. But even if it does, the emphasis is on giving Ukraine just enough to stay in the game, rather than the tools to secure a victory. And all this is before a possible Trump presidency, which could make things much more precarious.

Mr Lytvynenko is a close observer of American politics, and says he understands the extent to which the administration is worried about escalation and the global implications of war in Ukraine. But he says a Ukrainian victory would reduce, not increase, the risk of confrontation. “Leaders would become risk-averse.” A Ukrainian defeat, on the other hand, would be interpreted as proof that invasions work, with domino-like consequences in China, Taiwan, and beyond. “If aggression works once, everyone will think about having a go. Too many people are watching this war too intently.”

The security chief says Mr Putin has not yet stepped back from his maximalist aims, namely “to destroy the Ukrainian state and turn it into a buffer zone”. The Russian Orthodox church’s recent declaration of “sacred war” against Ukraine only underlines that determination. That announcement, undoubtedly made with the Kremlin’s blessing, was an “attempt to untie Putin’s hands”, and sanction harsh new campaigns against civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Odessa, Zaporizhia and beyond. The newly fanatical rhetoric is “something best compared to Islamic State”, the official continues: “It’s crucial to understand that Putinism has not yet completed its evolution. It could get even worse. If the West does not stop this, it will end up paying more later, and with its own lives. Assisting Ukraine isn’t about charity.”

After hopes for a breakthrough faded in 2023, momentum on the battlefield has shifted decisively against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin and his militarised economy have now geared up for a long war, and the West is so far unwilling to unequivocally challenge him. Front-line positions are under constant threat, with Russian guns firing at six times the rate of the Ukrainians’, and planes taking advantage of patchy air defences to launch more and more guided aerial bombs. The situation has become “very tough”, Mr Lytvynenko says. “Russians don’t care about their losses and it makes the situation even more difficult.”  When asked how Ukraine might begin to get to a winning position again, the official is non-committal. It is not clear if Mr Putin could ever stop attacking Ukraine, he says, but Ukraine has to adopt a military strategy that tries to force him to.

Bakhmut:

Russia’s occupying forces in Bakhmut just published on one of their Telegram channels new video footage and photos of the eastern Ukrainian city almost a year after it was destroyed and captured. The photos are stomach-churning and I admit they fill me with rage. I’ll post them… pic.twitter.com/3BIk9dS3rN

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 16, 2024

Russia’s occupying forces in Bakhmut just published on one of their Telegram channels new video footage and photos of the eastern Ukrainian city almost a year after it was destroyed and captured. The photos are stomach-churning and I admit they fill me with rage. I’ll post them below beside my own photos from when I lived in Bakhmut in 2010-2012, when it was a vibrant, peaceful city that 80,000 called home.

These images show the central square fountain and city hall — or where city hall stood before it was blown up. The first two were taken under Russian occupation. The other two are mine from 14 years ago.

More in the thread at the link!

Krasnohorivka:

Not near Krasnohorivka, but an advance IN Krasnohorivka. This video was easy to geolocate because of the slag heap and lakes and knowing the area well: the Russian armor moves NW into southern district (south side of the railway) of the city and along Zaliznychna Street. No doubt… https://t.co/1mOrsxpcCf

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 16, 2024

Not near Krasnohorivka, but an advance IN Krasnohorivka. This video was easy to geolocate because of the slag heap and lakes and knowing the area well: the Russian armor moves NW into southern district (south side of the railway) of the city and along Zaliznychna Street. No doubt this mechanized attack and others like it are possible right now because of Ukraine’s shortage of artillery shells, due to Republicans’ blocking the military aid bill in Congress.

Chasiv Yar:

Utter destruction. The Russian army’s wiping another Ukrainian city off the map. Chasiv Yar, once a peaceful little spot with a great swimming hole and surrounded by fields, is Russia’s latest target. This is happening while Republicans block military aid. pic.twitter.com/jwSpEtdIzL

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 16, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here’s some adjacent material.

This is muffin, she’s not back with Eugene Kibets after getting emergency treatment for a kidney ailment.

pic.twitter.com/D8kpOYy0fA

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 16, 2024

ADOPTED—three beauties surviving in war torn Ukraine. Thanks Uncle Eugene @eugenehmg. pic.twitter.com/09WDvpP7ig

— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) April 16, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 783: The GOP House Majority’s Dysfunction Is Actively Harming UkrainePost + Comments (38)

Tuesday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  April 16, 20249:09 pm| 87 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House"

I thought I would enjoy the Trump trial, but I’m not. I know it hasn’t even started, but I think what it is is that I AM JUST SO FUCKING SICK AND TIRED OF HIM. This has gone on forever. Longer than Bush. Longer than Reagan. At this point, they were both winding down their 8-10 years in the spotlight after their campaigns and two respective terms.

But Trump just is never going to fucking go away. Ever. It’s maddening.

Tuesday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (87)

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: The President’s Taxes

by Anne Laurie|  April 16, 20246:40 pm| 55 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat

New: Biden and the first lady paid $146,629 in federal income taxes on a combined $619,976 in adjusted gross income in 2023 — meaning the first family paid an effective federal income tax of 23.7% — according to tax filings released by the White House, @justinsink reports.

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) April 15, 2024

From the Associated Press, “Tax Day reveals a major split in how Joe Biden and Donald Trump would govern”:

Tax Day reveals a major split in how Joe Biden and Donald Trump would govern: The presidential candidates have conflicting ideas about how much to reveal about their own finances and the best ways to boost the economy through tax policy.

Biden, the sitting Democratic president, released his income tax returns on the IRS deadline of Monday. Filing jointly with his wife, Jill, he reported gross income of $619,976 and paid a federal income tax rate of 23.7%…

Biden is proud to say that he was largely without money for much of his decades-long career in public service, unlike Trump, who inherited hundreds of millions of dollars from his father and used his billionaire status to launch a TV show and later a presidential campaign.

“For 36 years, I was listed as the poorest man in Congress,” Biden told donors in California in February. “Not a joke.”

In 2015, Trump declared as part of his candidacy, “I’m really rich.”

show full post on front page

The Republican former president has argued that voters have no need to see his tax data and that past financial disclosures are more than sufficient. He maintains that keeping taxes low for the wealthy will supercharge investment and lead to more jobs, while tax hikes would crush an economy still recovering from inflation that hit a four-decade peak in 2022…

The split goes beyond an ideological difference to a very real challenge for whoever triumphs in the November election. At the end of 2025, many of the tax cuts that Trump signed into law in 2017 will expire — setting up an avalanche of choices about how much people across the income spectrum should pay as the national debt is expected to climb to unprecedented levels.

Including interest costs, extending all the tax breaks could add another $3.8 trillion to the national debt through 2033, according to an analysis last year by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Biden would like to keep the majority of the tax breaks, based on his pledge that no one earning less than $400,000 will have to pay more. But he released a budget proposal this year with tax increases on the wealthy and corporations that would raise $4.9 trillion in revenues and trim forecasted deficits by $3.2 trillion over 10 years…

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: The President’s TaxesPost + Comments (55)

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