Um……Florida? Pretty sure whomever takes FL takes the Preznitcy.
If McCane gets both FL and OH, doesn’t he become the fav?
2.
Comrade Peter J
Um……Florida? Pretty sure whomever takes FL takes the Preznitcy.If McCane gets both FL and OH, doesn’t he become the fav?
FiveThirtyEight says Obama will win 50.5% of the times he loses both Florida and Ohio. Also, in 10,000 simulations he only loses both states 895 times.
3.
evie
McCain can win FL & OH and still LOSE if Obama wins, for example, CO. Or VA.
4.
Comrade Peter J
Um……Florida? Pretty sure whomever takes FL takes the Preznitcy.If McCane gets both FL and OH, doesn’t he become the fav?
@Punchy: Obama leads by 6 and the trend favors him in Florida. I think Michael’s point is that these once safe havens for McCain aren’t so safe anymore and the trend favors Obama. If we are now talking about Georgia (albeit a very remote possibility) going for Obama you can bet the house that McCain’s mojo ain’t working.
This election may be like Secretariat running away from the field at the Belmont Stakes. Obama’s field operations are kicking in to high gear now and it will hit overdrive a few days before November 4th. So, yeah, Secretariat works for me.
6.
Zifnab
McCain is so far back on defense and his resources are stretched so thin that it’s really just a matter of how many upsets we can swing. Obama isn’t even just playing for Presidency anymore. If he can pick up Georgia – by some miracle – his coat tails can sweep up the Senate seat. If he can swing N. Carolina, he can oust Dole. How well he does in Texas could have a big effect on Noriega.
And every Senator who wins with wind at their backs owes Obama a big favor.
7.
bootlegger
Secretariat works for me.
More like Usain Bolt pulling away from the field at the Olympics.
8.
Tymannosourus
I like where your head is at, but you’re high if you think Gowgia is still in play.
9.
DBrown
West Virgina a bell weather? Get real. PA is the real issue where Obama has been pulling away. When low income white males start heading for Obama, the days are dark indeed for McSame and his hordes of stupid.
10.
phil
Pretty sure whomever takes FL takes the Preznitcy.
There is no way McCain wins if he loses Florida, but there are many ways for Obama to win without Florida.
If Florida gets called for Obama early on November 4, it’ll be a very short evening.
It’s more in play than you think. The down-ticket Senate race between Chambliss and Martin is tightening fast. That should translate into a tighter Pres. race as well.
And I think the polling still underestimates the size of the African-American vote this year. I believe you will see historic numbers.
12.
Tymannosourus
@Dave,
I sure hope that you’re right, but I just don’t see the southern "moral majority" turning its back on the McCain Palin ticket. Now if McCain would’ve plucked a big-city northerner like Pawlenty to be his veep, then I think you would be right. But the evangelical base is still fawning over Palin, and I think they come out heavy on election day.
13.
Geeno
@bootlegger:
I’d stick with Secretariat. "Big Red" won the Belmont by 24.5 lengths and growing. He won all three the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont with track records that still stand 36 years later.
Man, that was a whole lot of horse
14.
jibeaux
Strange W. Va. map. Looks like the red line hit the blue and ricocheted.
So once upon a time I was thrilled with the idea of an Obama victory, no matter how narrow. Now I want a blowout that includes my state (NC) and I’ll be oddly disappointed if we don’t get there.
But I’ll get over it.
15.
DrDave
Is McCain encountering a BalloonJuice/Cole effect in WV?
AP is reporting that Obama is going to start running TV ads in West Virginia.
16.
Kirk
@Tymannosourus: I’m going to support Dave here. Reference point – I live just south of Chattanooga. My county of residence went 74% for Bush in 2004. Elections from 2000 to 2006 – to include primaries – have run in the the same neighborhood. This year there were more D primary votes than R; a first. I’ve also seen Democratic neighborhood canvassers three times so far while seeing no Republican. Again, that’s the reverse of previous years.
Yes, that’s a pair of anecdotes. Or phrased differently, two data points that aren’t randomly sampled. I would not put money on Obama winning Georgia, but it’s going to be closer than anyone ever expected. It’s going to be close enough that I wouldn’t put money on him losing Georgia, either.
17.
Zifnab
@Tymannosourus: I think the very fact that we’re talking about it is worth talking about. Georgia ranks right up there with Utah and Alabama in my head as "states that are never going blue"… and yet…
18.
counterfactual
@Tymannosourus
Back on Oct 6, Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight crunched some numbers and predicted if African-American voters make up 30% of total voters, Obama would win Georgia in a squeaker. At that point AA voters were 40% of early voters, and Obama has increased his margin with non-AA voters in the national trackers since Nate posted.
19.
gbear
This may be old news in previous threads. Sorry if it’s a repeat. Joe the Plumber is related to the Keatings.
20.
Warren Terra
This is off topic, but it looks like Joe The Plumber might be shifting from a weird obsession of McCain’s to a full-blown embarrassment: from posts at TPM, it appears Joe The Plumber: (1) is a registered Republican who voted in the R primary long after the R nomination was moot; (2) would benefit from Obama’s tax plan; (3) hates Social Security; and (4) compared Obama to Sammy Davis Jr.
In each of the first two debates, McCain pulled from his nether orifice a brand-new and poorly conceived policy proposal. He managed to avoid that this time, instead hinging his entire performance on some guy no-one had heard of that McCain had chosen as a mascot. A guy who’d clearly been vetted by the same team of Keystone Kops who gave the all-clear on the Palin nomination.
The McCain-campaign-as-self-consciously-ironic-performance-art theory just gete stronger and stronger.
21.
Warren Terra
Oh, yeah, and (5) what gbear said.
22.
Tymannosourus
Well, that’s fair… and I sure hope that everyone is right. I guess only time will tell, and maybe I’m still in a semi-medicated delirium state about this whole campaign, and if you would have asked me 1.5 months ago which way Virginia would swing, I certainly wouldn’t have said Obama’s.
23.
SGEW
The McCain-campaign-as-self-consciously-ironic-performance-art theory just gete stronger and stronger.
Another victory for my United Andy Kaufman Theory of Everything!
If McCane gets both FL and OH, doesn’t he become the fav?
As things stand right now, no. The electoral math is against him. As of today, Obama can claim 264 electoral votes, while McCain can only claim 174 (per CNN). Obama only needs to pick up 6 EV to put him over the top (NV + any other state, or just CO). McCain could win every other contested state including FL and OH and still lose the EV. If Obama were to pick up either FL or OH, the race would be over that instant.
That’s as things stand today. It’s really damned unlikely that Obama is going to lose CA and NY and IL between now and Nov. 4, but the race could tighten up to where Obama would need both OH and FL to win.
25.
eric
one correction: because of a clock malfunction, Secretariat does not have the Preakness record.
The word that remains unspoken because of prior overuse: "mandate."
that is what you will be hearing about on Nov 5. Yet, i expect Obama to downplay that kind of talk early so as not to overplay his hand.
Plus, the "real" goal now is the bigger the win this year and the stronger the dem majority, the greater the number of republican reitrements in 2 and 4 years. You always have a better shot at an open seat rather than an incumbent. Long term strategy is the Dean/Obama way.
eric
26.
comrade scott
I live in a rurl Central Misery county that went 75% for President 19% in ’04.
Unlike in 04 when there was visible passion for reelecting the Worst. President. Ever., there ain’t none for McPOW and Governor Gidget.
Now, will McCain carry my county? Yes, mainly because most of my wingnut neighbors would rather wake up in the morning and discover they’ve turned into a black Muslim rather than vote for a Dem, *any* Dem much less one who’s (whispers) colored.
But, all it takes here in Misery is to shave about 2% points off the margin of loss in the rurl areas and combine that with a massive GOTV campaign in STL and KC. Result: A Missouri that goes for Obama.
And as I’ve said before, unlike Kerry (who pulled out waaay too early in 04 the fucking wanker), the Obama campaign’s presence here is significant. And he and Biden have campaigned here and not just in the Dem strongholds of STL and KC. I mean Biden was here in exceedingly red Jefferson City (our podunk as shit capitol) last week. And drew a sold out crowd. These are the kind of people who didn’t vote at all in 04 cuz they interpreted Kerry’s retreat as basically a "fuck you Missour voters" message.
Now, do I think Obama can carry Misery? I never underestimate the power of bigotry here so if he does, it’ll be mainly because bigoted white Dems deserted him. Otherwise, he’s got a real chance.
27.
Dave
I wish I could be as positive as the people in here. I see this nationally as 4 to 6 points. I don’t think there will be a Bradley effect, but my problem is I see Obama doing well in all 3 debates, McCain is a weak candidate and Palin is a joke, and Obama’s only up by 5?
I’m hoping we see historic AA and young person turnout, but they say that every four years and it never seems to happen.
God help this country if McCain wins. It will mean that an AA cannot win at this point in time. It also means that Sarah Palin will be co-running this country, with her dirtbag husband pulling the levers.
The two most unreal moments of my professional life of watching focus groups:
54 year-old white male, voted Kerry ’04, Bush ’00, Dole ’96, hunter, NASCAR fan…hard for Obama said: "I’m gonna hate him the minute I vote for him. He’s gonna be a bad president. But I won’t ever vote for another god-damn Republican. I want the government to take over all of Wall Street and bankers and the car companies and Wal-Mart run this county like we used to when Reagan was President."
The next was a woman, late 50s, Democrat but strongly pro-life. Loved B. and H. Clinton, loved Bush in 2000. "Well, I don’t know much about this terrorist group Barack used to be in with that Weather guy but I’m sick of paying for health insurance at work and that’s why I’m supporting Barack."
I mean come on. The snark just about writes itself:
"Shorter Middle America: we’re voting for the scary dark terrorist dude. At least he isn’t [shudder] a Republican"
30.
NonWonderDog (НеинтереснаяСобака)
Huh. That West Virginia trendline doesn’t fit at all—it’s not even close after Sept. 5. I guess there aren’t enough polls in it for such a wide spread of results, but that trendline doesn’t even follow what polls there are.
31.
NonWonderDog (НеинтереснаяСобака)
Ahh, I see now. They chose the two polls most favorable to McCain and drew the trendline through those. I thought it was supposed to be a trendline, but apparently it’s something else.
32.
Napoleon
I mean come on. The snark just about writes itself:
Shorter Middle America: we’re voting for the scary dark terrorist dude. At least he isn’t [shudder] a Republican
That story just amazes me. If a majority of the country feels that way Obama could have shown up in a 1960 black militant afro with a rifle over his shoulder and still win the election.
33.
lucslawyer
Secretariat, Usain Bolt? How about Seabiscuit vs. War Admiral?
If a majority of the country feels that way Obama could have shown up in a 1960 black militant afro with a rifle over his shoulder and still win the election.
And believe me, Al Sharpton is kicking himself for sitting this one out.
.
35.
rollSound
DBrown in post 9/10 has it right.
For a few decades now, I’ve known that the Republican party was doomed the day that poor, white people realized they had more in common with poor, black people than with rich, white people.
but you’re high if you think Gowgia (sic) is still in play.
Georgia is actually polling closer that what people are thinking are the "actual" swing states. McCain is only polling ahead of Obama by about 8 points in Georgia. Compare this to PA, where polls in the last 2-3 weeks have consistently shown the margin btw 10-14 points. Yet, ironically, PA is a "swing" state that is supposedly up for grabs while GA is supposedly solid red. There’s definitely some cognitive dissonance going on there.
39.
ed
One of those lines is more erratic than the other.
One is hot red, the other is cool blue.
One trends up, steadily; the other down, shakily.
It works on so many levels.
40.
The Vexed Vixen aka Adrienne
Secretariat, Usain Bolt? How about Seabiscuit vs. War Admiral?
Usain Bolt HAS to win this little pissing contest. Did you see the tape?!?!
The man pulled up, slowed down, and STILL smashed the world record. Imagine if he would have kept his head down, leaned in, and finished correctly. His time would have been in "The Flash" territory.
Yet it may very well be that an army of glum, dispirited and pessimistic conservatives will reluctantly trudge to the polls on November 4, each one imagining they are the only remaining person in the entire country voting for McCain, and lo and behold — they’ll turn out to be a silent majority after all.
(emphasis added)
Ah, the internet. Never before have so many OCD conspiracy theorists, sociopathic fringe loonies, and outright schizophrenics reached such a wide audience. It must make psychiatric case studies easier.
42.
Punchy
@Warren Terra: Still cant figgy why this even matters. So some dude impersonated a actual undecided…..y’all remember that FEMA chumps impersonated an entire press corps after a natural disaster?
It shouldn’t be surprising, it certainly isn’t unique, and most of all, it simply doesn’t matter. WTF cares?
43.
Rick Taylor
This election keeps getting weirder and weirder. Now Republicans are campaigning for John McCain by dressing up as squirrels and attacking Acorn. I feel like I live in a Doonesbury cartoon. Via pandagon.
44.
Calouste
Apparently Obama is expanding operations in West Virginia (see above), Georgia (see above), North Dakota (he had some good polls there earlier and another one last week, and Ron Paul is on the ballot) and Kentucky.
Kentucky? Kentucky?? Did you say freaking Kentucky???
45.
Seanly
Someone above mentioned hordes of stupid. Anybody see that GMA interview with Joe the Plumber? Talk about the stupid. He was saying how why should someone who makes more than $250k pay anymore in taxes than anyone else. Meaning he’s a flat tax or fair tax moron. Grrr, I used to work with people who were so stupid about taxes.
I look at it from what’s my takehome, not what I pay the government. After 401(k), taxes, healthcare, etc. I take home 65 cents on the dollar, but I get a lot more dollars than about 80 percent. So I am still way ahead of the game. If my marginal tax* rate goes up by a few percent, maybe I now take home 63 or 64 cents on the dollar. Yet that still leaves me ahead of most of my fellow Americans.
Stupid asshats like McCain, Palin, Joe the Plumber & other flat/"fair" taxers can blow me.
Aside (can’t seem to use asteriks) ~ what’s her face on GMA said something about the top tax bracket would go up by 5%. No, the highest marginal bracket would go up by 5%, but the effective tax rate would not go up by that much. "West Wing" did an episode where they talked about taxes & made the same math mistake.
46.
Chinn Romney, polygamist
So what happened in WV during the first half of September? Did the corn crop came in and they wasted no time firing up the hooch boilers? Did the drier weather mean the doublewide doorways shrank, allowing the heftier to get outside and down to the General Store where they could use the phone to register their natural preference for the Angry Albino Dwarf?
What, praytell, is it that causes one to bounce violently from 1 candidate to the other at this late stage in the game? Did they perhaps not understand the question? Why do we allow the seriously stoopid to vote anyway? Surely our founding fathers never intended for cretins to have a say in the running of the country. Too bad all these electronic gadgets make it that much harder to tune them out.
47.
MobiusKlein
Seems that expanding popularity in Red States is part of the larger strategy of being able to govern effectively, not just be elected.
If Kentucky is close, it’s one more state that is not anti-obama. And perhaps the Dems in that state have more reason to work w/ Obama.
This is the 50 state strategy in action, people. They laughed at it, but it’s working. They complained that Dean was wasting money paying for Dem organizers in red states. They sneered when Obama opened dozens of field offices everywhere, even where everyone just knew he couldn’t possibly win. This is what it looks like when it works.
49.
Krista
If a majority of the country feels that way Obama could have shown up in a 1960 black militant afro with a rifle over his shoulder and still win the election.
Entertaining mental image. He’s already quite rangy in build, so an afro would make him look like a lollipop.
Actually, according to this guy, this is all excellent news…for McCain!
Mmmmmm, that’s good crazy!
52.
Comrade Mary, Would-Be Minion Of Bad Horse
Punchy, that’s unfreakingbelievable.
She said she doesn’t think in racist terms, pointing out she once supported Republican Alan Keyes, an African-American who previously ran for president."I didn’t see it the way that it’s being taken. I never connected," she said. "It was just food to me. It didn’t mean anything else."
Well, after I picked MY jaw up off the keyboard, I noticed that the "Ten Obama Bucks" parody also featured, in addition to the delicacies already mentioned; a dancing pitcher of Kool-Aid.
Do you think this was a deliberate move (I don’t – it’s too clever for these buttscratchers)? Or just a random bit of cleverness got in by mistake?
55.
NonWonderDog (НеинтереснаяСобака)
Kool-Aid is the stereotypical beverage of poor inner-city black kids, so it wasn’t cleverness. Just racism.
56.
comrade pseudonymous in nc
I’ve known that the Republican party was doomed the day that poor, white people realized they had more in common with poor, black people than with rich, white people.
@comrade pseudonymous in nc: And he was probably riffing on Derrick Bell (I’m almost certain) who has argued that U.S. race relations have been structured to keep this from happening.
Ahh, I see now. They chose the two polls most favorable to McCain and drew the trendline through those. I thought it was supposed to be a trendline, but apparently it’s something else.
No. Charles Franklin is a personal friend, and I can assure you that this is not what he did. I’m not going to take the time to dig it up, but my suspicion is that the one poll that shows Obama way ahead is not only an outlier, but also one that has a pro-Obama house effect. There’s nothing nefarious about that. Some perfectly acceptable methodologies produce results that are more favorable to a particular candidate than do other perfectly acceptable methodologies. This is why he uses regression among all the polls after taking houses effects into consideration.
60.
Tymannosourus
@ Vexed Vixen,
thanks for the (sic) addition to my comment about Georgia, but I was shooting for the phoenetic spelling of the state.
Yes, there seems to be poetic justice in finding out that the guy who complained about paying taxes is a tax-cheat, but it’s penny-wise and pound-stupid. Citizens should be able to ask Candidates questions without having a partisan posse look through every piece of "publicly available" information about their lives – let alone put them online.
Jesus Christ. He’s related to Charle’s Keating Son-in-law? Who cares? 6 degrees of separation. How related? How close are they? Has he ever even met the slimebag Charles Keating?
Frankly, unless someone coughs up actual evidence that he was up to something then I think this kind of thing is no better than the guilt-by-association smears against Obama.
62.
SGEW
Why th’ hell is anyone talking about Joe the fucking not-actually-a-plumber Plumber? Yeesh. Lame campaign tactic No. 49826 by the McCain campaign.
Tho’ it is funny to read about him, I must admit. Heh.
They really are in "False Consciousness" territory.
67.
Tim Fuller
We should all bow down to Joe, or at least the folks in McCain’s circle that decided to pull this stunt using him as their foil. At the end of the day, it was Joe who caused McCain to get confused about Obama’s health care plan. Joe is directly responsible for McCain’s deer-in-the-headlights moment. Think about that.
@Oracle:
What libarbarian said. Stop obsessing over Joe The Plumber. His details are not relevant. I don’t care if he’s a registered Republican claiming to be undecided. I don’t care if he’s actually Sarah Palin’s second cousin. It is beneath anybody’s dignity to go countertop-inspecting this guy. The Kos diaries are sniffing all over this guy’s underwear drawer. That should be enough to tell you to stop. Stop it.
69.
binzinerator
She [Diane Fedele] said she doesn’t think in racist terms, pointing out she once supported Republican Alan Keyes, an African-American who previously ran for president."I didn’t see it the way that it’s being taken. I never connected," she said. "It was just food to me. It didn’t mean anything else."
Shorter Diane Fedele: "I can’t be a racist because I once supported of our own n*ggers running for office. Besides, some of my best friends are n*ggers."
Sheila Raines, an African-American member of the club, was the first person to complain to Fedele about the newsletter. Raines, of San Bernardino, said she has worked hard to try to convince other minorities to join the Republican Party and now she feels betrayed.
"This is what keeps African-Americans from joining the Republican Party," she said. "I’m really hurt. I cried for 45 minutes."
I feel for her, but Jesus H. tapdancing Christ this is what the Republican party is about and has been about for decades. It’s not like it’s been subtle either.
Is it really a betrayal when she got exactly what was under her own nose for years and years? Is it really a betrayal by the party if the party that has sought out the racists in this country as a electoral strategy does racist things?
The Republican party didn’t betray her, she betrayed herself, her own common sense.
I’d say after she gets an apology from her club’s prez, she’ll likely go right back to convincing other minorities to join the party of bigots. By this late stage of modern conservatism the only african-americans left in the GOP are the co-dependant ones.
70.
Comrade Stuck
My take is, the only two southern states Obama has a decent chance for are NC and VA. Both states have changes in their demo with high tech industry mostly, and NC has had it’s industrial based economy decimated in recent years. Forget about Georgia and likely Florida. GA is flying with Diebold as it’s co-pilot and is the shadiest state for election hijinx by wingnuts, IMHO. And Fl isn’t much different, especially the South Georgia northern half. They will find a way to hand the state to Magoo, and I fear too many retired and otherwise liberal minded jews in the south won’t be able to get the word Hussein out of their head before voting. Where Obama is going to make inroads in red states will be the intermountain west states, particularly my state NM, also CO and NV. unfortunately not AZ, Mccain’s home state. Ohio, like last time will be pivotal to electing the next prez. Unless the underlying economic fears bloom into panic mode (they may already be), then Obama will win very decisively or in a landslide.
71.
Laura W
Now I want a blowout that includes my state (NC)
WORD.
Early voting starts today!
72.
binzinerator
This is off topic, but it looks like Joe The Plumber might be shifting from a weird obsession of McCain’s to a full-blown embarrassment: from posts at TPM, it appears Joe The Plumber: (1) is a registered Republican who voted in the R primary long after the R nomination was moot; (2) would benefit from Obama’s tax plan; (3) hates Social Security; and (4) compared Obama to Sammy Davis Jr.
Clearly the McCain campaign’s vetting of Joe the Plumber fell though the crack.
Citizens should be able to ask Candidates questions without having a partisan posse look through every piece of "publicly available" information about their lives – let alone put them online.
Umm, the guy delivered himself on Good Morning America for an interview. Joe went looking for the posse on his own.
And he brought the stupid with him. Sammy Davis Jr? sheesh.
I’m sick of the guy too and done commenting about him, but it’s not like Joe disconnected the phone about this.
Yeah, I know it’s a goddamn pinko Yankee rag (and the home of the single most annoying sports columnist in America, Mark Bradley), but it’s got the biggest circulation in the state.
78.
croatoan
If McCane gets both FL and OH, doesn’t he become the fav?
Not even close. Check out the electoral vote map. McCain has to win every state that’s tied (North Carolina), Barely Dem (Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, and Ohio), or Barely GOP (Indiana and West Virginia) plus get 11 more electoral votes by picking up one or two of the Weak Dem states (Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Virginia; he’d need Virginia by itself or Maine plus either Colorado or Minnesota).
Obama can win without getting Florida or Ohio or any of the Barely Dem states.
79.
Zuzu's Petals
(3) he needs to do something to help the No on 8 campaign in California.
That’s doubtful since he’s on record as not agreeing with same sex marriage.
80.
Comrade Stuck
Yeah, I know it’s a goddamn pinko Yankee rag, but it’s got the biggest circulation in the state.
@binzinerator: Bu-but, Martin Luther King Jr. was a Republican.
You know, I really can’t decide what’s worse. The initial offense or the patently false attempt to play the unwitting innocent. The insult is what it is. The "apology" says: "You darkies are so dumb you’ll believe it."
As for the ladies who cried. Well. I feel the same way about them as I do the LCR. Yeah it sucks to be you but if you didn’t notice before, this is how it is, this is how it has been for a while, this is how it’s going to be for the forseeable future.
Christ, start your own, bigot-free party, just stop being shocked when the GOP spits in your face.
82.
Comrade Darkness
That’s doubtful since he’s on record as not agreeing with same sex marriage.
This really is Bill Clinton all over again. The right has labelled Obama with the L word as a standard attack procedure. Doesn’t make him one. If you have high hopes for progressive or liberal policy out of Obama, best start adjusting them now, down to "massive improvement" which, I for one, am willing to cheer for given the state of things. But, do expect every stone-cold, dead-center, moderate thing Obama does to be labelled with foam-flecked invective as hopelessly far left wing.
Gah.
83.
...now I try to be amused
Obama isn’t even just playing for Presidency anymore.
I think that was his plan from the start. What an ambitious plan it was — and perhaps had to be. Implement Dean’s 50-state strategy — check. End Clintonism in the national party — check(?). Elect a lot more Democrats nationwide and end Republican obstructionism in Congress — looking good.
Mr. Obama impresses me more and more.
84.
Nicole
Any thread that has this many horse racing references is win in my book.
With no due disrespect to Usain, who ran a very impressive race, Secretariat’s Belmont Stakes was an event for the ages.
If you have high hopes for progressive or liberal policy out of Obama, best start adjusting them now
The struggle begins anew next January, when the possibility of progressive voices having an audience in the halls of power upgrades from "no fucking way" to "remote." It’ll be a struggle, but at least not a hopeless one.
I know nobody likes infighting. I know when progressive voices start criticizing and pressuring the Obama administration, they’ll be accused of being a circular firing squad.
Too bad. That’s just how it goes in a system of winner-take-all representation — first you get your coalition into power, then you start pressing for influence within the coalition.
87.
SamFromUtah
@Cris v.3.1: …next January, when the possibility of progressive voices having an audience in the halls of power upgrades from "no fucking way" to "remote."
Exactly. Only I’d thought of it as going from "no fucking way AND you’re a traitor for suggesting it" to "no".
Which is still an improvement, since it at least allows for there to be more improvement.
88.
Nicole
McPOW is Big Brown. He ended his career by kicking himself in the leg.
jake 4 that 1, that is full of awesome.
89.
ScreamingInAtlanta
Here’s a great email I rec’d from a friend of mine who voted today (Early Absentee Voting) in Dekalb Cty GA:
"The joint was on fire! People chatting and I even cried the tiniest bit. Young, old and in-between. A cool young African American woman was in line with her traditionally dressed African mom. A Republican looking couple came in and gawked at the line and we ran them off with our sheer energy. No words were spoken, but they scurried out the door with their well manicured tails between their legs. It was packed. I’d say at least two hundred people in line, but the line was fast because there were so many voting booths. Oh god! For a little while I had hope and then I plunged back into wariness. But for one shining moment, Citizen {name} was the most important woman in America."
I voted the 3rd day of early voting and it was packed and electric. We’ll see!
WV is a traditionally Democratic state that happens to be more culturally conservative. So that WV poll may simply be WV realigning with its Democratic roots.
Even so, it looks like we’re bucking the Appalachian stereotypes this time. Maybe we don’t have as many "Bitter people" that Glenn Reynolds was hoping for…
91.
...now I try to be amused
That’s just how it goes in a system of winner-take-all representation—first you get your coalition into power, then you start pressing for influence within the coalition.
Didn’t the conservative movement do it the other way round?
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Punchy
Um……Florida? Pretty sure whomever takes FL takes the Preznitcy.
If McCane gets both FL and OH, doesn’t he become the fav?
Comrade Peter J
FiveThirtyEight says Obama will win 50.5% of the times he loses both Florida and Ohio. Also, in 10,000 simulations he only loses both states 895 times.
evie
McCain can win FL & OH and still LOSE if Obama wins, for example, CO. Or VA.
Comrade Peter J
FiveThirtyEight
a> says Obama will win 50.5% of the times he loses both Florida and Ohio. Also, in 10,000 simulations he only loses both states 895 times.
Viagra Viagra Viagra
The Grand Panjandrum
@Punchy: Obama leads by 6 and the trend favors him in Florida. I think Michael’s point is that these once safe havens for McCain aren’t so safe anymore and the trend favors Obama. If we are now talking about Georgia (albeit a very remote possibility) going for Obama you can bet the house that McCain’s mojo ain’t working.
This election may be like Secretariat running away from the field at the Belmont Stakes. Obama’s field operations are kicking in to high gear now and it will hit overdrive a few days before November 4th. So, yeah, Secretariat works for me.
Zifnab
McCain is so far back on defense and his resources are stretched so thin that it’s really just a matter of how many upsets we can swing. Obama isn’t even just playing for Presidency anymore. If he can pick up Georgia – by some miracle – his coat tails can sweep up the Senate seat. If he can swing N. Carolina, he can oust Dole. How well he does in Texas could have a big effect on Noriega.
And every Senator who wins with wind at their backs owes Obama a big favor.
bootlegger
More like Usain Bolt pulling away from the field at the Olympics.
Tymannosourus
I like where your head is at, but you’re high if you think Gowgia is still in play.
DBrown
West Virgina a bell weather? Get real. PA is the real issue where Obama has been pulling away. When low income white males start heading for Obama, the days are dark indeed for McSame and his hordes of stupid.
phil
There is no way McCain wins if he loses Florida, but there are many ways for Obama to win without Florida.
If Florida gets called for Obama early on November 4, it’ll be a very short evening.
Dave
@Tymannosourus:
It’s more in play than you think. The down-ticket Senate race between Chambliss and Martin is tightening fast. That should translate into a tighter Pres. race as well.
And I think the polling still underestimates the size of the African-American vote this year. I believe you will see historic numbers.
Tymannosourus
@Dave,
I sure hope that you’re right, but I just don’t see the southern "moral majority" turning its back on the McCain Palin ticket. Now if McCain would’ve plucked a big-city northerner like Pawlenty to be his veep, then I think you would be right. But the evangelical base is still fawning over Palin, and I think they come out heavy on election day.
Geeno
@bootlegger:
I’d stick with Secretariat. "Big Red" won the Belmont by 24.5 lengths and growing. He won all three the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont with track records that still stand 36 years later.
Man, that was a whole lot of horse
jibeaux
Strange W. Va. map. Looks like the red line hit the blue and ricocheted.
So once upon a time I was thrilled with the idea of an Obama victory, no matter how narrow. Now I want a blowout that includes my state (NC) and I’ll be oddly disappointed if we don’t get there.
But I’ll get over it.
DrDave
Is McCain encountering a BalloonJuice/Cole effect in WV?
AP is reporting that Obama is going to start running TV ads in West Virginia.
Kirk
@Tymannosourus: I’m going to support Dave here. Reference point – I live just south of Chattanooga. My county of residence went 74% for Bush in 2004. Elections from 2000 to 2006 – to include primaries – have run in the the same neighborhood. This year there were more D primary votes than R; a first. I’ve also seen Democratic neighborhood canvassers three times so far while seeing no Republican. Again, that’s the reverse of previous years.
Yes, that’s a pair of anecdotes. Or phrased differently, two data points that aren’t randomly sampled. I would not put money on Obama winning Georgia, but it’s going to be closer than anyone ever expected. It’s going to be close enough that I wouldn’t put money on him losing Georgia, either.
Zifnab
@Tymannosourus: I think the very fact that we’re talking about it is worth talking about. Georgia ranks right up there with Utah and Alabama in my head as "states that are never going blue"… and yet…
counterfactual
@Tymannosourus
Back on Oct 6, Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight crunched some numbers and predicted if African-American voters make up 30% of total voters, Obama would win Georgia in a squeaker. At that point AA voters were 40% of early voters, and Obama has increased his margin with non-AA voters in the national trackers since Nate posted.
gbear
This may be old news in previous threads. Sorry if it’s a repeat. Joe the Plumber is related to the Keatings.
Warren Terra
This is off topic, but it looks like Joe The Plumber might be shifting from a weird obsession of McCain’s to a full-blown embarrassment: from posts at TPM, it appears Joe The Plumber: (1) is a registered Republican who voted in the R primary long after the R nomination was moot; (2) would benefit from Obama’s tax plan; (3) hates Social Security; and (4) compared Obama to Sammy Davis Jr.
In each of the first two debates, McCain pulled from his nether orifice a brand-new and poorly conceived policy proposal. He managed to avoid that this time, instead hinging his entire performance on some guy no-one had heard of that McCain had chosen as a mascot. A guy who’d clearly been vetted by the same team of Keystone Kops who gave the all-clear on the Palin nomination.
The McCain-campaign-as-self-consciously-ironic-performance-art theory just gete stronger and stronger.
Warren Terra
Oh, yeah, and (5) what gbear said.
Tymannosourus
Well, that’s fair… and I sure hope that everyone is right. I guess only time will tell, and maybe I’m still in a semi-medicated delirium state about this whole campaign, and if you would have asked me 1.5 months ago which way Virginia would swing, I certainly wouldn’t have said Obama’s.
SGEW
Another victory for my United Andy Kaufman Theory of Everything!
That and Putin. Who is Elvis. Q.E.D.
Grumpy Code Monkey
@Punchy:
As things stand right now, no. The electoral math is against him. As of today, Obama can claim 264 electoral votes, while McCain can only claim 174 (per CNN). Obama only needs to pick up 6 EV to put him over the top (NV + any other state, or just CO). McCain could win every other contested state including FL and OH and still lose the EV. If Obama were to pick up either FL or OH, the race would be over that instant.
That’s as things stand today. It’s really damned unlikely that Obama is going to lose CA and NY and IL between now and Nov. 4, but the race could tighten up to where Obama would need both OH and FL to win.
eric
one correction: because of a clock malfunction, Secretariat does not have the Preakness record.
The word that remains unspoken because of prior overuse: "mandate."
that is what you will be hearing about on Nov 5. Yet, i expect Obama to downplay that kind of talk early so as not to overplay his hand.
Plus, the "real" goal now is the bigger the win this year and the stronger the dem majority, the greater the number of republican reitrements in 2 and 4 years. You always have a better shot at an open seat rather than an incumbent. Long term strategy is the Dean/Obama way.
eric
comrade scott
I live in a rurl Central Misery county that went 75% for President 19% in ’04.
Unlike in 04 when there was visible passion for reelecting the Worst. President. Ever., there ain’t none for McPOW and Governor Gidget.
Now, will McCain carry my county? Yes, mainly because most of my wingnut neighbors would rather wake up in the morning and discover they’ve turned into a black Muslim rather than vote for a Dem, *any* Dem much less one who’s (whispers) colored.
But, all it takes here in Misery is to shave about 2% points off the margin of loss in the rurl areas and combine that with a massive GOTV campaign in STL and KC. Result: A Missouri that goes for Obama.
And as I’ve said before, unlike Kerry (who pulled out waaay too early in 04 the fucking wanker), the Obama campaign’s presence here is significant. And he and Biden have campaigned here and not just in the Dem strongholds of STL and KC. I mean Biden was here in exceedingly red Jefferson City (our podunk as shit capitol) last week. And drew a sold out crowd. These are the kind of people who didn’t vote at all in 04 cuz they interpreted Kerry’s retreat as basically a "fuck you Missour voters" message.
Now, do I think Obama can carry Misery? I never underestimate the power of bigotry here so if he does, it’ll be mainly because bigoted white Dems deserted him. Otherwise, he’s got a real chance.
Dave
I wish I could be as positive as the people in here. I see this nationally as 4 to 6 points. I don’t think there will be a Bradley effect, but my problem is I see Obama doing well in all 3 debates, McCain is a weak candidate and Palin is a joke, and Obama’s only up by 5?
I’m hoping we see historic AA and young person turnout, but they say that every four years and it never seems to happen.
God help this country if McCain wins. It will mean that an AA cannot win at this point in time. It also means that Sarah Palin will be co-running this country, with her dirtbag husband pulling the levers.
gex
@bootlegger:
So long as he keeps his head down and keeps running instead of thumping his chest. I don’t want Obama to merely win. I want a record beat down.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
John and Tim,
I’m absolutely floored that neither of youze guys has put a top level post about the breaking of the Seventh Seal:
I mean come on. The snark just about writes itself:
"Shorter Middle America: we’re voting for the scary dark terrorist dude. At least he isn’t [shudder] a Republican"
NonWonderDog (НеинтереснаяСобака)
Huh. That West Virginia trendline doesn’t fit at all—it’s not even close after Sept. 5. I guess there aren’t enough polls in it for such a wide spread of results, but that trendline doesn’t even follow what polls there are.
NonWonderDog (НеинтереснаяСобака)
Ahh, I see now. They chose the two polls most favorable to McCain and drew the trendline through those. I thought it was supposed to be a trendline, but apparently it’s something else.
Napoleon
That story just amazes me. If a majority of the country feels that way Obama could have shown up in a 1960 black militant afro with a rifle over his shoulder and still win the election.
lucslawyer
Secretariat, Usain Bolt? How about Seabiscuit vs. War Admiral?
JGabriel
Napoleon:
And believe me, Al Sharpton is kicking himself for sitting this one out.
.
rollSound
DBrown in post 9/10 has it right.
For a few decades now, I’ve known that the Republican party was doomed the day that poor, white people realized they had more in common with poor, black people than with rich, white people.
Comrade Kevin
@lucslawyer:
I was thinking more like Bambi Meets Godzilla.
The Other Steve
McCain is really way ahead in the polls. You guys are all german horses!
http://www.zombietime.com/lefts_big_blunder/
The Vexed Vixen aka Adrienne
Georgia is actually polling closer that what people are thinking are the "actual" swing states. McCain is only polling ahead of Obama by about 8 points in Georgia. Compare this to PA, where polls in the last 2-3 weeks have consistently shown the margin btw 10-14 points. Yet, ironically, PA is a "swing" state that is supposedly up for grabs while GA is supposedly solid red. There’s definitely some cognitive dissonance going on there.
ed
One of those lines is more erratic than the other.
One is hot red, the other is cool blue.
One trends up, steadily; the other down, shakily.
It works on so many levels.
The Vexed Vixen aka Adrienne
Usain Bolt HAS to win this little pissing contest. Did you see the tape?!?!
The man pulled up, slowed down, and STILL smashed the world record. Imagine if he would have kept his head down, leaned in, and finished correctly. His time would have been in "The Flash" territory.
SGEW
From TOS’s "Zombie Time" link (above):
(emphasis added)
Ah, the internet. Never before have so many OCD conspiracy theorists, sociopathic fringe loonies, and outright schizophrenics reached such a wide audience. It must make psychiatric case studies easier.
Punchy
@Warren Terra: Still cant figgy why this even matters. So some dude impersonated a actual undecided…..y’all remember that FEMA chumps impersonated an entire press corps after a natural disaster?
It shouldn’t be surprising, it certainly isn’t unique, and most of all, it simply doesn’t matter. WTF cares?
Rick Taylor
This election keeps getting weirder and weirder. Now Republicans are campaigning for John McCain by dressing up as squirrels and attacking Acorn. I feel like I live in a Doonesbury cartoon. Via pandagon.
Calouste
Apparently Obama is expanding operations in West Virginia (see above), Georgia (see above), North Dakota (he had some good polls there earlier and another one last week, and Ron Paul is on the ballot) and Kentucky.
Kentucky? Kentucky?? Did you say freaking Kentucky???
Seanly
Someone above mentioned hordes of stupid. Anybody see that GMA interview with Joe the Plumber? Talk about the stupid. He was saying how why should someone who makes more than $250k pay anymore in taxes than anyone else. Meaning he’s a flat tax or fair tax moron. Grrr, I used to work with people who were so stupid about taxes.
I look at it from what’s my takehome, not what I pay the government. After 401(k), taxes, healthcare, etc. I take home 65 cents on the dollar, but I get a lot more dollars than about 80 percent. So I am still way ahead of the game. If my marginal tax* rate goes up by a few percent, maybe I now take home 63 or 64 cents on the dollar. Yet that still leaves me ahead of most of my fellow Americans.
Stupid asshats like McCain, Palin, Joe the Plumber & other flat/"fair" taxers can blow me.
Aside (can’t seem to use asteriks) ~ what’s her face on GMA said something about the top tax bracket would go up by 5%. No, the highest marginal bracket would go up by 5%, but the effective tax rate would not go up by that much. "West Wing" did an episode where they talked about taxes & made the same math mistake.
Chinn Romney, polygamist
So what happened in WV during the first half of September? Did the corn crop came in and they wasted no time firing up the hooch boilers? Did the drier weather mean the doublewide doorways shrank, allowing the heftier to get outside and down to the General Store where they could use the phone to register their natural preference for the Angry Albino Dwarf?
What, praytell, is it that causes one to bounce violently from 1 candidate to the other at this late stage in the game? Did they perhaps not understand the question? Why do we allow the seriously stoopid to vote anyway? Surely our founding fathers never intended for cretins to have a say in the running of the country. Too bad all these electronic gadgets make it that much harder to tune them out.
MobiusKlein
Seems that expanding popularity in Red States is part of the larger strategy of being able to govern effectively, not just be elected.
If Kentucky is close, it’s one more state that is not anti-obama. And perhaps the Dems in that state have more reason to work w/ Obama.
jnfr
This is the 50 state strategy in action, people. They laughed at it, but it’s working. They complained that Dean was wasting money paying for Dem organizers in red states. They sneered when Obama opened dozens of field offices everywhere, even where everyone just knew he couldn’t possibly win. This is what it looks like when it works.
Krista
Entertaining mental image. He’s already quite rangy in build, so an afro would make him look like a lollipop.
Punchy
@Rick Taylor: Josh Marshall at TPM has just one-upped you.
/jaw hits floor
Comrade EdTheRed
Actually, according to this guy, this is all excellent news…for McCain!
Mmmmmm, that’s good crazy!
Comrade Mary, Would-Be Minion Of Bad Horse
Punchy, that’s unfreakingbelievable.
SGEW
RedState blesses us all with their wisdom, by commenting upon the aforementioned batch of crazy-making from ZombieTime. Extraordinary.
Jay C
@Punchy:
Well, after I picked MY jaw up off the keyboard, I noticed that the "Ten Obama Bucks" parody also featured, in addition to the delicacies already mentioned; a dancing pitcher of Kool-Aid.
Do you think this was a deliberate move (I don’t – it’s too clever for these buttscratchers)? Or just a random bit of cleverness got in by mistake?
NonWonderDog (НеинтереснаяСобака)
Kool-Aid is the stereotypical beverage of poor inner-city black kids, so it wasn’t cleverness. Just racism.
comrade pseudonymous in nc
Hat-tip to Charles Barkley on making that call too.
SGEW
@Punchy:
Strangely enough, I just find racism boring now.
Oh, another Republican exposes their latent racism in clear, unambiguous, unmistakable terms? Ho hum. Yawn. It’s almost old news to me now.
As Ta-Nahesi says, "They are who we thought they were."
jake 4 that 1
@comrade pseudonymous in nc: And he was probably riffing on Derrick Bell (I’m almost certain) who has argued that U.S. race relations have been structured to keep this from happening.
Divide. Conquer. Repeat.
ComradeJ. Michael Neal
No. Charles Franklin is a personal friend, and I can assure you that this is not what he did. I’m not going to take the time to dig it up, but my suspicion is that the one poll that shows Obama way ahead is not only an outlier, but also one that has a pro-Obama house effect. There’s nothing nefarious about that. Some perfectly acceptable methodologies produce results that are more favorable to a particular candidate than do other perfectly acceptable methodologies. This is why he uses regression among all the polls after taking houses effects into consideration.
Tymannosourus
@ Vexed Vixen,
thanks for the (sic) addition to my comment about Georgia, but I was shooting for the phoenetic spelling of the state.
libarbarian
Apparently Does "Joe the Plumber" have Granite counter-tops?!?!?!?!
Yes, there seems to be poetic justice in finding out that the guy who complained about paying taxes is a tax-cheat, but it’s penny-wise and pound-stupid. Citizens should be able to ask Candidates questions without having a partisan posse look through every piece of "publicly available" information about their lives – let alone put them online.
Politicians are one thing but regular people who ask questions or speak in commercials are something else.
OH NOS!!! Joe the Plumber Associated with Charles Keating!!!
Jesus Christ. He’s related to Charle’s Keating Son-in-law? Who cares? 6 degrees of separation. How related? How close are they? Has he ever even met the slimebag Charles Keating?
Frankly, unless someone coughs up actual evidence that he was up to something then I think this kind of thing is no better than the guilt-by-association smears against Obama.
SGEW
Why th’ hell is anyone talking about Joe the fucking not-actually-a-plumber Plumber? Yeesh. Lame campaign tactic No. 49826 by the McCain campaign.
Tho’ it is funny to read about him, I must admit. Heh.
Common Sense
Zero?
jake 4 that 1
@Rick Taylor: Uh-oh. Apparently McPalin has secured the crucial "furries" vote.
Oracle
The fact that Joe the Plumber failed to pay his taxes may or may not be relevant.
The fact that he is a registered Republican and committed McCain supporter most certainly is.
libarbarian
Holy Jesus!
They really are in "False Consciousness" territory.
Tim Fuller
We should all bow down to Joe, or at least the folks in McCain’s circle that decided to pull this stunt using him as their foil. At the end of the day, it was Joe who caused McCain to get confused about Obama’s health care plan. Joe is directly responsible for McCain’s deer-in-the-headlights moment. Think about that.
Enjoy.
Cris v.3.1
@Oracle:
What libarbarian said. Stop obsessing over Joe The Plumber. His details are not relevant. I don’t care if he’s a registered Republican claiming to be undecided. I don’t care if he’s actually Sarah Palin’s second cousin. It is beneath anybody’s dignity to go countertop-inspecting this guy. The Kos diaries are sniffing all over this guy’s underwear drawer. That should be enough to tell you to stop. Stop it.
binzinerator
Shorter Diane Fedele: "I can’t be a racist because I once supported of our own n*ggers running for office. Besides, some of my best friends are n*ggers."
I feel for her, but Jesus H. tapdancing Christ this is what the Republican party is about and has been about for decades. It’s not like it’s been subtle either.
Is it really a betrayal when she got exactly what was under her own nose for years and years? Is it really a betrayal by the party if the party that has sought out the racists in this country as a electoral strategy does racist things?
The Republican party didn’t betray her, she betrayed herself, her own common sense.
I’d say after she gets an apology from her club’s prez, she’ll likely go right back to convincing other minorities to join the party of bigots. By this late stage of modern conservatism the only african-americans left in the GOP are the co-dependant ones.
Comrade Stuck
My take is, the only two southern states Obama has a decent chance for are NC and VA. Both states have changes in their demo with high tech industry mostly, and NC has had it’s industrial based economy decimated in recent years. Forget about Georgia and likely Florida. GA is flying with Diebold as it’s co-pilot and is the shadiest state for election hijinx by wingnuts, IMHO. And Fl isn’t much different, especially the South Georgia northern half. They will find a way to hand the state to Magoo, and I fear too many retired and otherwise liberal minded jews in the south won’t be able to get the word Hussein out of their head before voting. Where Obama is going to make inroads in red states will be the intermountain west states, particularly my state NM, also CO and NV. unfortunately not AZ, Mccain’s home state. Ohio, like last time will be pivotal to electing the next prez. Unless the underlying economic fears bloom into panic mode (they may already be), then Obama will win very decisively or in a landslide.
Laura W
WORD.
Early voting starts today!
binzinerator
Clearly the McCain campaign’s vetting of Joe the Plumber fell though the crack.
gbear
@libarbarian:
Umm, the guy delivered himself on Good Morning America for an interview. Joe went looking for the posse on his own.
And he brought the stupid with him. Sammy Davis Jr? sheesh.
I’m sick of the guy too and done commenting about him, but it’s not like Joe disconnected the phone about this.
Cris v.3.1
@gbear:
Okay, fair point.
Zuzu's Petals
@Jay C:
She did say she got the image off an e-mail that was being sent around.
Eccchhh.
burnspbesq
Obama needs to do three things sometime between now and Election Day:
(1) he needs to go to Georgia and campaign alongside Jim Martin (what wouldn’t you give to see Saxby Chambliss go down?);
(2) he needs to go to Kentucky and campaign alongside Bruce Lunsford (eversomuch moreso for McConnell); and
(3) he needs to do something to help the No on 8 campaign in California.
burnspbesq
Holy shit!
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution endorsed Martin!
Yeah, I know it’s a goddamn pinko Yankee rag (and the home of the single most annoying sports columnist in America, Mark Bradley), but it’s got the biggest circulation in the state.
croatoan
Not even close. Check out the electoral vote map. McCain has to win every state that’s tied (North Carolina), Barely Dem (Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, and Ohio), or Barely GOP (Indiana and West Virginia) plus get 11 more electoral votes by picking up one or two of the Weak Dem states (Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Virginia; he’d need Virginia by itself or Maine plus either Colorado or Minnesota).
Obama can win without getting Florida or Ohio or any of the Barely Dem states.
Zuzu's Petals
That’s doubtful since he’s on record as not agreeing with same sex marriage.
Comrade Stuck
Welcome to the Revolution Comrade Idiot!
@burnspbesq:
jake 4 that 1
@binzinerator: Bu-but, Martin Luther King Jr. was a Republican.
You know, I really can’t decide what’s worse. The initial offense or the patently false attempt to play the unwitting innocent. The insult is what it is. The "apology" says: "You darkies are so dumb you’ll believe it."
As for the ladies who cried. Well. I feel the same way about them as I do the LCR. Yeah it sucks to be you but if you didn’t notice before, this is how it is, this is how it has been for a while, this is how it’s going to be for the forseeable future.
Christ, start your own, bigot-free party, just stop being shocked when the GOP spits in your face.
Comrade Darkness
This really is Bill Clinton all over again. The right has labelled Obama with the L word as a standard attack procedure. Doesn’t make him one. If you have high hopes for progressive or liberal policy out of Obama, best start adjusting them now, down to "massive improvement" which, I for one, am willing to cheer for given the state of things. But, do expect every stone-cold, dead-center, moderate thing Obama does to be labelled with foam-flecked invective as hopelessly far left wing.
Gah.
...now I try to be amused
I think that was his plan from the start. What an ambitious plan it was — and perhaps had to be. Implement Dean’s 50-state strategy — check. End Clintonism in the national party — check(?). Elect a lot more Democrats nationwide and end Republican obstructionism in Congress — looking good.
Mr. Obama impresses me more and more.
Nicole
Any thread that has this many horse racing references is win in my book.
With no due disrespect to Usain, who ran a very impressive race, Secretariat’s Belmont Stakes was an event for the ages.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cS4f6wiQJh4
Does this make McCain Sham? Once a strong competitor, finally wears out, staggers home in last and never races again? We should be so lucky.
jake 4 that 1
McPOW is Big Brown. He ended his career by kicking himself in the leg.
Cris v.3.1
@Comrade Darkness:
The struggle begins anew next January, when the possibility of progressive voices having an audience in the halls of power upgrades from "no fucking way" to "remote." It’ll be a struggle, but at least not a hopeless one.
I know nobody likes infighting. I know when progressive voices start criticizing and pressuring the Obama administration, they’ll be accused of being a circular firing squad.
Too bad. That’s just how it goes in a system of winner-take-all representation — first you get your coalition into power, then you start pressing for influence within the coalition.
SamFromUtah
@Cris v.3.1: …next January, when the possibility of progressive voices having an audience in the halls of power upgrades from "no fucking way" to "remote."
Exactly. Only I’d thought of it as going from "no fucking way AND you’re a traitor for suggesting it" to "no".
Which is still an improvement, since it at least allows for there to be more improvement.
Nicole
jake 4 that 1, that is full of awesome.
ScreamingInAtlanta
Here’s a great email I rec’d from a friend of mine who voted today (Early Absentee Voting) in Dekalb Cty GA:
"The joint was on fire! People chatting and I even cried the tiniest bit. Young, old and in-between. A cool young African American woman was in line with her traditionally dressed African mom. A Republican looking couple came in and gawked at the line and we ran them off with our sheer energy. No words were spoken, but they scurried out the door with their well manicured tails between their legs. It was packed. I’d say at least two hundred people in line, but the line was fast because there were so many voting booths. Oh god! For a little while I had hope and then I plunged back into wariness. But for one shining moment, Citizen {name} was the most important woman in America."
I voted the 3rd day of early voting and it was packed and electric. We’ll see!
WestVirginiaRebel
WV is a traditionally Democratic state that happens to be more culturally conservative. So that WV poll may simply be WV realigning with its Democratic roots.
Even so, it looks like we’re bucking the Appalachian stereotypes this time. Maybe we don’t have as many "Bitter people" that Glenn Reynolds was hoping for…
...now I try to be amused
Didn’t the conservative movement do it the other way round?