Josh Trevino runs the numbers for McCain:
The probable opponent there is now Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton is not out yet, but barring a stunning turnaround in the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio, she will continue to fade. Assuming this continues, it is worth comparing McCain and Obama as they performed in the handful of states they have both won so far. It is a short list of eight, and though we cannot assess the candidates in a direct contest — yet — we can compare the turnout for each. Suffice it to say that Barack Obama’s vote totals blow McCain’s out of the water. The states, and the percentage advantage for Obama, follow:
# Connecticut: Obama had 226% more votes than McCain.
# Delaware: Obama had 226% more votes than McCain.
# Illinois: Obama had 307% more votes than McCain.
# Maryland: Obama had 295% more votes than McCain.
# Missouri: Obama had 208% more votes than McCain.
# South Carolina: Obama had 200% more votes than McCain.
# Washington: Obama had 623% more votes than McCain.
# Virginia: Obama had 255% more votes than McCain.This comparison is of limited utility, of course: the lopsided totals in places like Connecticut and Illinois may simply reflect the anemic Republican apparatus in each. But how to explain the comparative blowouts in Missouri, South Carolina, and Virginia? The Democrats aren’t just winning the turnout battle: they’re dominating it by orders of magnitude, even in Republican strongholds. Between the strange loss of the pro-war vote, and the massive Democratic turnout advantage to date, John McCain cannot afford to rest on his laurels, nor cruise to his inevitable nomination, if he wants to win in nine months.
I am beginning to think my theory (by theory, I mean wild speculation) is right- they know this is going to be a blowout, and Mccain is the fall guy. How many Huckabee votes are “conservatives” offering themselves the option to say “Don’t blame me, I voted for Huckabee” after the November blowout?
zzyzx
Don’t count WA state. That’s state delegates, not actual votes. Caucuses are weird.
cleek
McCain has failed to reveal himself as the host of the reincarnation of St Ronald. he will not remove his turban and reveal the hidden embryonic demon face of Reagan, screeching on the back of his skull, waiting to be reborn, like the hapless Quirrell who hosted He Who Shan’t Be Named. instead, he is merely John the Disappointing, who promises only war and gloom.
and so he fails.
Graeme
I don’t think they planned on McCain being the fall guy. I think it just happened that they couldn’t field anyone all that good this year. No one really wants to run in the wake of Bush, I don’t think.
No matter who runs, the GOP has lost a lot of the Independent vote. They’ve lost some of their base vote. They’ve lost support in terms of money. Much of the base isn’t motivated to turn out.
I keep chuckling to myself when pundits assume the red and blue states are fixed party assets. I think there will be a lot more blue states this year.
Wilfred
Strange loss? What, have the pro-war voters gone over to Obama, did they stay home and not vote in the GREATEST STRUGGLE IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND, or are they now anti-war? Or is the war over? More likely the pro-war vote is the only vote the laurel challenged lunatic actually got.
Billy K
Oh, they know they’re gonna lose in 2008. They’ve known it for a long time. But that’s OK. They’ll have stolen everything not bolted down by January 2009 (and some of what is). That was the plan all along.
Then they pin the blame on the Democrat in office when the country really lurches into recession, and they take back the White House in 2012 and undo whatever good was done in the previous 4 years.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Tractarian
Let’s play a game. What will be the most unexpected red-state-turned-blue this year?
My vote: North Dakota.
Jen
has got to be the most bizarre thing I’ve read today.
LarryB
Minor geeky quibble: “orders of magnitude” means an exponential increase (e.g., 10x, 100x). I’m sympathetic to Trevino’s problem, though. “dominating it by a factor of 2, 3 or even six times the votes…” doesn’t exactly trip off the tongue, does it?
D-Chance.
Huckabee supporters using the Limbaugh template? As noted yesterday, the excuse is in place. Crap all over McCain right on through November. When he loses, the excuse is, “We tried to get him to move closer to the base. We tried to get him to be more conservative, but he refused. HE lost the election; we didn’t. This country is still majority conservative. We just didn’t have a voice in this election.” That will be the talking point. It’s all on McCain’s shoulders, conservatives (Movement Authoritarian, Social Evangelical, whatever subset) will wash their hands and claim innocence for the outcome. His fault because he didn’t become one of them.
At least Bob Dole got the smiles and slaps on the back during Bob Dole’s 1996 Farewell Tour. McCain won’t even get that.
chopper
seeing as how its getting real likely that obama will be the dem candidate, if i were a hardcore righty i’d be pretty glad mccain is the nominee. i mean, obama vs huckabee? the christian right would lose bad and be emasculated for years to come.
i agree, they’re hiding to fight another day and claim that mccain’s loss is because he wasn’t conservative enough, even though everyone knows obama would eat huckabee’s lunch any day of the week.
Punchy
Understatement of the century. Not only is she not out, she probably wont drop out like she should. She’ll fight this all the way until the convention, then twist about 600 Superdellys into nominating her. She’s got more inner connections and power channels than many O-fans realize.
Birdzilla
Barack Obama is too liberal he is no different then any of the other demacrooks
LarryB
True enough. Remember, “Conservatism can never fail, it can only be failed by persons who are not “true” conservatives”.
TheFountainHead
Only the Democrats could have the two greatest possible candidates available to them and still screw it up.
RSA
Innumeracy alert: Subtract 100 from each of the percentages in the table, or read all the lines as “Obama had x% of McCain’s total vote.” (That is, following Trevino’s wording, 100% more than something means exactly the same amount of that thing.)
Jon H
” the lopsided totals in places like Connecticut and Illinois may simply reflect the anemic Republican apparatus in each. ”
That would be Connecticut with the Republican governor. They have a hard time fielding good Republican candidates for the Senate and Congress, but I wouldn’t say the Repubs have an anemic ‘apparatus’.
Alan
Huck votes also perpetuate the Religious Right’s control over the GOP. Afterall, Huck seemed to get a huge boost after the Dobson endorsement. If only Dobson had endorsed him earlier.
NonyNony
Only the Democrats could have the two greatest possible candidates available to them and still screw it up.
After years of watching the Dems, if there’s a way to screw it up they will.
And if there seems to be no possible way they can screw it up, they’ll find some way to do it.
It would be humorous, if their only opposition weren’t simultaneously batshit-insane and frightentingly effective.
KWG
I don’t doubt that turnout in the general will be higher for a Dem, but you’re ignoring the fact that the Dem primary is actually a tight race. Turnout isn’t really a good comparison statistic when Obama is neck-and-neck with Clinton while McCain has basically already won.
Which brings me to my next point: Why is nobody on TV talking about how incredibly stupid Huckabee is?
Andrew
Well, you guys beat me to it. Nerds!
myiq2xu
The title of the Democratic Campaign Manual is
RSA
I’m going to put this kind of thing in the appendix to my new best seller, How to Win Friends and Influence People by Correcting Their Grammar and Flaming their Spelling.
AkaDad
Missouri
chopper
i wouldn’t put it past her. she definitely wants it badly.
zsa
I dunno about Obama being a lock … what is Bob Shrum doing these days?
buzzrd
John McCain… the new Bob Dole.
The next in this series of military heroes as sacrificial lambs is…
General David Petraeus in 2012.
K-Lo’s heart is thumping wildly over this idea.
cleek
he’s not a ‘lock’, he’s a fascist. ask Jonah.
Joshua Trevino
Innumeracy …. my error. Fixed in the original.
jcricket
I say each side (Obama/Hillary) needs to keep getting out the vote, and then each candidate and their supporters need to get behind whomever is the nominee with no ill will/bad feelings. Even Hillary, who got blown away in MD and VA put up numbers that blew away John McCain. That energy has to carry into the general for Dems to win in a convincing way. It’s that energy/turnout that’s going to allow all the down-ticket races to go “D” and increase our number of House/Senate seats, Governorships, and state legislatures.
Why is Hillary continuing to run a bad thing again? She’s not Ralph Nader. Sometimes Obama fans seem to act as if Hillary hasn’t managed to get any “real people” to vote for her. Super delegates are real people (and she doesn’t have 100% of them). Her voters in all the states that helped her rack up lots of delegates are real people. If she wins in Ohio & Texas – those are real people. Maybe a win by 15% isn’t a Obama-sized margin, but can we all acknowledge that the rules say only the delegate count matters. If Hillary is ahead in delegates after March 4th, that’s a real lead, just like Obama’s lead is real right now.
As The Other Steve said in a different thread, let’s let all the people who have yet to vote decide, and not prematurely call the race one way or another. If you don’t like the rules (caucuses v. primaries v. open primaries, delegates v. super delegates, IA/NH going first, MI/FL not being seated) campaign to get them changed next time around.
But Hillary’s not out until Obama has enough delegates to lock the nomination, which is a ways off. And Obama’s not out even if Hillary’s in the lead after March 4th.
I can, however, go for the argument that if Obama pulls off big wins in Ohio and Texas and puts up a commanding lead through PA – Hillary should get behind him even if he hasn’t “locked it” mathematically to avoid a brokered convention/drawing things out.
Marshall
At least in Virginia and Maryland, Hillary had more votes than McCain – he came in third overall.
Geoduck
John McCain would run in the wake of Ghengis Khan. John McCain really really really wants to be president.
demkat620
Montana & Nevada.
Reverend Spooner
Idaho. Alaska could still surprise us, too.
Phoenix Woman
Okay, let’s have a contest:
Who will McCain pick as his running mate to appease the wingnuts so they don’t stay home in November?
He can’t stick with Pawlenty — T-Paw panders to the nutcase right, though they sense that he’s really not one of them (that is, he’s not flipping insane). Plus, T-Paw couldn’t even deliver his own state for McCain in the caucuses, so he probably can’t seal the deal in the general either.
McCain’s going to have to pick a true nutjob, or risk having a Coulter or Malkin fan shoot him down in cold blood. (Seriously.)