Today, Ukraine Has Taken an Important Step to Support Our People Through This Winter – Address by the President

1 December 2024 – 16:19

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today has been an active day for diplomacy. We welcomed European Council President António Costa, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas, and European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos to Ukraine. What is important is that they arrived in Ukraine on the very first day of their term of office, this is a new five-year term for European institutions, the officials have changed, but the course of Europe remains unchanged. Security and genuine peace for all on the continent remains a top priority. In today’s talks, we focused on these priorities – joint opportunities to bolster our air defense and implement all existing agreements on defense support. We also discussed in detail how we can achieve greater progress in Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations next year. This is meticulous work with many nuances, but the most important thing is the readiness of both Ukraine and our partners to move forward as quickly as possible. Next year marks the six-month presidencies of Poland and Denmark in the European Union, and we must do as much as possible to ensure that the European project is realized for Ukraine, Moldova, and the Balkan states. Of course, today we paid attention to the issue of NATO for Ukraine – an invitation to join the Alliance, which can fundamentally strengthen Ukraine before any negotiations to end the war. And this is such a step, such a strengthening that will largely guarantee the justice of peace. I am grateful to all partners who support Ukraine in this regard. Geopolitical certainty for Ukraine is the basis of peace for the whole of Europe.

Today, Ukraine has taken an important step to support our people through this winter. Our eSupport program has officially launched, providing 1,000 hryvnias to our people in Ukraine – to everyone: adults and children alike. On average, this means several thousand hryvnias per family, and the funds can be used to pay for goods and services, Ukrainian goods and services. This includes utility payments, Ukrainian medicines, train tickets, and even books. And, of course, the program can also become a national donation initiative – citizens can choose to direct this 1,000 hryvnias to support volunteers or our defense. I am grateful to everyone ensuring the technical implementation of the program – the government, the Ministry of Economy, and the Ministry of Digital Transformation. In just the first half-day of the program, 1.1 million Ukrainians submitted applications for payments, including nearly 300,000 applications for children. That is, the scale of the program and the pace of implementation are good. It is essential that the government closely monitors all systems involved in the program to fully deliver on the promises made to the people. Additionally, the government must present details on other support programs for this winter and throughout the coming year.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy met today with the EU’s new leadership team – President of the European Council António Costa, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, and EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos – and held a joint presser afterwards.

Great symbolism to do this on 1st day in office; but the symbolism needs to be backed up – with more arms for Ukraine & better sanctions enforcement on Russia. And Europe will probably have to do these things with less help (if any) from the US.

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— Ian Bond (@cerianbond.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 7:50 AM

Here’s the video with English subtitles:

Let’s highlight this bit:

President Zelensky: we will never accept occupied territories as Russian.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 9:56 AM

Um, okay:

The United States is not considering returning to Ukraine the nuclear weapons the country previously agreed to give up under the Budapest Memorandum, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in an interview on Dec. 1.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 1, 2024 at 3:12 PM

Leaving aside that they were, actually Ukraine’s nuclear weapons, I’m not sure anyone in any position of responsibility was asking about this.

The Kyiv Independent has the details on this very weird query:

The United States is not considering returning to Ukraine the nuclear weapons the country previously agreed to give up under the Budapest Memorandum, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in an interview on Dec. 1.

When asked by ABC News whether the U.S. is considering retuning nuclear weapons to Ukraine, Sullivan denied that the escalatory move was in discussion.

“That is not under consideration. No. What we are doing is surging various conventional capacities to Ukraine so that they can effectively defend themselves and take the fight to the Russians, not nuclear capability,” Sullivan told ABC News.

The New York Times reported on Nov. 22 that several U.S. officials have suggested that President Joe Biden was could allow Ukraine to possess nuclear weapons once again.

Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in exchange for receiving security guarantees from the U.S., the U.K., and Russia.

Sullivan’s comments on the issue comes as the Biden administration continues to make series of decisions aimed at giving Kyiv leverage in future negotiations, ahead of the January inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump — who has criticized military support for Kyiv.

These steps included approving the delivery of anti-personnel mines and granting permission for Ukraine to launch U.S.-made long-range ATACMS at targets within Russia.

In recent months, Ukrainian officials reportedly floated the proposal of securing nuclear weapons if it is not provided accession into the NATO military alliance.

On Oct. 17, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he told Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in September that Ukraine must either join NATO or pursue nuclear capabilities for protection.

Zelensky later clarified the comments, saying that Ukraine is not pursuing nuclear weapons and the remarks were made to emphasize the failures of the Budapest Memorandum.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi further said in a statement on Oct. 17 that Ukraine is not planning to develop weapons of mass destruction and remains committed to nuclear non-proliferation.

The statement came after the German media outlet Bild reported that Kyiv is preparing to develop nuclear weapons. The story cited an unnamed Ukrainian source.

Russia continues to increase its nuclear sabre-rattling, as it has done throughout the full-scale invasion. Despite the Kremlin’s threats, the risk of a nuclear attack is unlikely, Reuters reported, citing five unnamed sources familiar with U.S. intelligence data.

As Russia continues to escalate its nuclear rhetoric domestically, 39% of Russians now believe that “the use of nuclear weapons could be justified” in Ukraine, Alexey Levinson, chief of the sociocultural research department at the Russian independent polling organization Levada Center, said at a conference on Nov. 29.

Well this bit explains it:

The New York Times reported on Nov. 22 that several U.S. officials have suggested that President Joe Biden was could allow Ukraine to possess nuclear weapons once again.

As I wrote above, no one in any position of responsibility was asking about this.

The US:

This whole story of unconceivable hesitancy and political short-sightedness is just tragic.

A truly unique historic situation of 2022 was lost to absurd and self-consuming exercises in “escalation management,” now bringing tragic results.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv…

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— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 4:12 AM

From Professor Philips O’Brien at The Atlantic:

Joe Biden filled his administration with geniuses: Rhodes scholars; Ivy League graduates; people with extensive global experience; a national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, whom the president has described as a “once-in-a-generation intellect.” The president himself has been immersed in foreign policy for half a century. Yet despite all of those impressive résumés, the Biden administration has badly mishandled the war in Ukraine, not only hampering a beleaguered ally’s ability to fend off a Russian invasion but also throwing away a remarkable chance to improve America’s global standing and democratic powers’ position in the world.

In defending themselves far more effectively than expected, the Ukrainians showed a capacity to deal Russian President Vladimir Putin a major military defeat, but again and again, Biden and his experts have constrained Ukraine’s ability to fight until it was too late. Just recently, only after his party lost the presidential election, Biden finally gave Ukraine the tightly limited ability to use American weapons on military targets in a small part of Russia. The president’s decision comes after 33 months of war, during which Russia has launched long-range attacks anywhere in Ukraine it wanted, in many cases using Iranian-made weaponry.

Biden has promised the Ukrainians that he will stand by them “for as long as it takes”—but he has nevertheless made sure that the war has gone on much longer than it had to.

Nearly three years in, the conflict is becoming ever more grotesque, and the number of war crimes keeps rising. The conflict has also become more global in nature, as Russia, by economic and military necessity, deepens its alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea. When Putin was gathering his invasion force in late 2021 and early 2022, the United States had good intelligence and tried to warn Ukraine about Russia’s plans. A far harder call was what would happen when an invasion began, and in that respect, the Biden administration didn’t understand what it was looking at. U.S. officials assumed that if Putin went ahead with his plans, Ukraine would stand no chance and the Russians would prevail in short order. Stung by the disastrous American withdrawal from Afghanistan just months earlier, Biden reacted to the new crisis with self-pity: According to the journalist Bob Woodward’s new book, War, the president complained, “Jesus Christ! Now I’ve got to deal with Russia swallowing Ukraine?”

In fact, the United States had greatly overestimated Russian might. Instead of unleashing shock and awe, Putin’s military was a shoddy instrument. It had ample firepower but was also hindered by corruption, uneven morale, command-and-control shortcomings, and logistical problems. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians showed themselves to be far more resilient, adaptable, and willing to fight than the Biden administration had understood. At that point, the U.S. could have capitalized immensely on the Ukrainians’ spirited resistance and on Russian weakness.

I struggle to think of another time when unexpected events offered a U.S. president more favorable conditions to remake the geopolitical landscape. For years, American strategists have discussed reorienting U.S. military forces away from Europe, where they serve primarily to guard democratic nations against Moscow’s military aggression, and toward the Indo-Pacific region in order to deter a fast-growing China. If the U.S. had helped Ukraine win in 2022—which is to say, liberate its own internationally recognized territory—and then join NATO, it would also have protected the security of countries to Ukraine’s west. The presence of a militarily powerful Ukraine in NATO would have moved the balance of forces within Europe decisively in favor of democratic nations and restored global confidence in American leadership, which the Afghanistan debacle had undermined. The United States could then have drawn down its military footprint in Europe and focused its energies on Asia. The world would have been much safer and stabler.

However bold the president’s promises to stand by the Ukrainians, though, his administration seemed cowed by Russian threats that Putin would use nuclear weapons if the U.S. assisted Kyiv too much. Moreover, an ingrained fixation on seeking stability in Russia seemed to make the White House nervous about doing anything that would threaten Putin’s rule too much or yield chaos in Russia. In a Foreign Affairs essay last fall, Sullivan boasted multiple times that the Biden administration was helping Ukraine defend itself. The problem is that defensive tactics alone will never be sufficient to allow Ukrainians to defeat an invasion by a much larger power.

Even so, Biden and his aides pursued a Goldilocks strategy, hoping to help Ukraine fight without provoking Putin too much. They provided very limited types of military equipment to Ukraine and even then made sure to restrict what Ukraine could do with it. At first, the Biden administration seemed terrified to give Ukraine anything that could hit more than 30 miles or so from the front lines—so the U.S. supplied only short-range weaponry. It certainly didn’t want Ukraine to be able to target Russian military assets in Crimea, which is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine and has been illegally occupied by Russia since 2014.

So for the rest of 2022, when Russia’s initial invasion faltered and then went into reverse, Ukraine was deprived of any ability to hit Russian targets far in the rear, even if those targets were within Ukraine’s own territory. And the battlefield results that followed were predictable. Although Ukraine made some deep advances in the fall, the Russians were always able to recover, having a broad sanctuary where they could regroup and supply their forces.

That was the start of the Biden administration forcing Ukraine to fight in a way that the United States would never contemplate for itself. When Kyiv sought longer-range weapons systems in 2022 and early 2023, the Biden administration at first refused, citing Putin’s supposed willingness to use nuclear weapons. The possibility of nuclear escalation was regularly repeated when Ukrainians sought access to other Western weapons systems, including ATACMS missiles, Abrams main battle tanks, F-16 fighters, and more.

When the U.S. eventually got over its reservations and provided the requested systems, albeit in limited numbers, Putin always backed down. The standard Russian strategy was to downplay the arrival of the new equipment and go out of its way to assure the Russian public that it would make no difference in the war. And in fact, those Western weapons had significantly less impact than they would have if the U.S. had transferred them earlier and in greater quantity.

An inability to learn became a major, repeated failure of the Biden administration’s overall strategy toward Ukraine. Extreme caution about provoking Putin was perhaps understandable in early 2022. American defense planners had for years played numerous wargames that resulted in nuclear weapons being used if some imagined Russian redline was crossed. Both Woodward and The New York Times have reported that, as Ukraine was taking back territory in the fall of 2022, the Biden administration believed—based on intelligence that likely will never become public—that there was a 50 percent chance that Putin would use nuclear bombs. Even so, the administration should have adjusted its thinking after Russia’s military weakness and its tendency to bluff on nuclear matters became clear.

Russia has adjusted its tactics and is trying to win. It has used Iranian drones, retrofitted with thermobaric weapons, to burn Ukrainian civilians alive; it’s in the process of deploying 10,000 North Korean troops to do its fighting, while sacrificing its own soldiers at a rate reaching 45,000 injuries and deaths a month. (The British government estimates total Russian casualties at about 700,000.) The Biden administration, meanwhile, is tying itself in knots deciding whether to allow Ukraine to attack military targets of great strategic value with weapons designed to do just that.

In practice, the Biden administration has treated the Ukraine conflict like a crisis to be managed, not a war to be won. The administration doesn’t seem to understand that Russia can be beaten.

The war has now gone on so long that Biden won’t figure in its ending. Ukrainians can still fight on with Europe’s help. Perhaps President-Elect Donald Trump will confound his allies and detractors alike by standing with Ukraine instead of indulging Putin. What’s clear is that Biden missed the moment. The administration has dithered, looking more and more powerless as Ukraine has suffered and as an emergent anti-Western alliance that includes Iran, North Korea, and China has come to Russia’s aid. Biden could have helped create a better, more secure world than the one that existed in February 2022. Instead, he’s ushered in a much more dangerous one.

More at the link!

What Biden, his once in a generation intellect National Security Advisor, and the rest of his senior natsec team have ushered in is Kharkiv is now in range of North Korean heavy artillery!

Russia received the “city-smashing” rocket launchers from North Korea, and guess which city should brace for the impact? Yep, us.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 7:13 AM

If I’m being serious, I can’t begin to describe the sheer horror of being within Russia’s artillery range. It means people dying and everything burning around you 24/7. Balconies crashing onto people passing by, cars burning on the roads, people getting

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 7:23 AM

killed in grocery lines or in their kitchens while sipping morning tea. Non-stop, more and more, until no one is left. Being within artillery range again will kill our city.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 7:23 AM

The Kyiv Indepent has the details:

North Korea has supplied Russia with more than 100 short-range ballistic missiles, and 5 million artillery shells, Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said on Nov. 29.

In comments to Interfax-Ukraine, HUR also said Pyongyang had begun supplying Moscow with artillery systems last month.

“In total, over 100 pieces of various equipment have been transferred, including 170-mm M-1989 self-propelled artillery systems, and 240-mm M-1991 multiple rocket launchers,” it said.

“Additionally, North Korea continues to supply Russia with large-calibre artillery ammunition and short-range ballistic missiles of the Kn-23/24 type.”

HUR added that as of this month, over 5 million artillery rounds and 100 artillery shells have been delivered.

More at the link.

Georgia:

Oh, what a remarkable woman you are! What a brave soul you have! ✊🏼🇬🇪 #GeorgiaProtests #TbilisiProtests

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— Tatia Tsuladze (@tsuladze.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 6:41 PM

In Tblisi, Georgia, the situation is getting more grim by the minute. Protestors are now using molotov cocktails to attack security forces.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) December 1, 2024 at 3:32 PM

More from deterring the police with fireworks. #GeorgiaProtests
📷 paper_kartuli

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 6:45 PM

The Battle of Hogwarts between good and evil in real life. #GeorgiaProtests
📷 david.munjishvili

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 6:36 PM

Fireworks keep away soon-to-be advancing special forces again. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 6:02 PM

⚡️Zourabichvili says she’ll remain Georgian president until legitimate parliament elected.

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili’s statement comes amid protests sparked by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s decision to postpone Georgia’s accession to the European Union until 2028.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 1, 2024 at 7:57 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili said on Nov. 30 that she would remain president until a legitimate parliament is elected, the media outlet Echo of the Caucasus reported.

Zourabichvili’s statement comes amid protests sparked by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s decision to postpone Georgia’s accession to the European Union until 2028.

Police reportedly used pepper spray and water cannons to disperse demonstrators in Tbilisi on Nov. 29, but protests have now spread to Batumi, Zugdidi, Kutaisi, Telavi, Gurjaani, and other Georgian cities.

An illegitimate parliament will not be able to elect a new head of state, Zourabichvili said. According to the president, the inauguration will not occur due to these circumstances, and her mandate will continue until the new parliament elects a new president.

“I want to tell the public that there is a national consensus here with the president, who is the only independent, legitimate institution,” Zourabichvili said, adding that she will meet with “the society and political parties” on Dec. 1.

“Together, we are leading the political process that you (Georgian citizens) are leading outside, in the streets, and various spheres of society. I will lead the political process while remaining your president.”

Previously, the country’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, announced that the presidential election would be held on Dec. 14 and the inauguration on Dec. 29. For the first time, the president of Georgia will not be elected by the population but by the Electoral Board, in which the Georgian Dream will have the majority.

Parliamentary Speaker Shalva Papuashvili claimed that Zourabichvili’s six-year term as President expires on Dec. 16.

The Georgian Dream party, now led by Kobakhidze, has faced accusations of democratic backsliding and steering the country closer to the Kremlin. Earlier this year, the controversial “foreign agents” law prompted mass protests and violent police crackdowns.

The October parliamentary elections kicked off another round of protests amid accusations that Georgian Dream perpetrated widespread fraud and rigged the vote.

Following the vote, the European Commission suspended Georgia’s EU accession process, highlighting the growing rift between Tbilisi and the West.

While pro-EU Georgians took to the streets in protest, Kobakhidze defended his decision to delay EU accession and said that a “Maidan situation” would not happen in Georgia.

“(U)nlike Ukraine in 2013, Georgia is an independent state with strong institutions and, most importantly, experienced and wise people whose power no one can shake. The Maiden scenario cannot be realized in Georgia,” Kobakhidze said during a government press conference.

His remarks refer to Ukraine’s 2013 EuroMaidan Revolution, a months-long popular uprising provoked by former President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign a much-anticipated Association Agreement with the EU.

And amid this increasing chaos there are puppet judges at the Constitutional Court who are supposed to reject the President’s case and declare the October 26 elections legitimate and constitutional. 🤡

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 6:54 PM

Poland:

An oil spill from the Druzhba pipeline was detected near the town of Pniewy in western Poland on Sunday

The Druzhba pipeline, a major conduit for oil supplies from Russia to eastern and Central Europe. tvpworld.com/83776267/oil…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 3:31 PM

Kherson:

Kherson. Dead bodies lie inside a civilian bus. Today, russians murdered them by dropping an explosive from a drone onto the roof, killing at least 3 passengers.

Russian human safari in Kherson continues every day

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 10:12 AM

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Russia struck a shuttle bus in the regional center of Kherson on Dec. 1, killing three and injuring eight people, local authorities reported.

The attack occurred at 8:15 a.m. local time in the Dniprovskyi district of the city. There were 15 people in the vehicle at the time of the strike.

Seven of the injured were immediately hospitalized. Another victim, a 70-year-old woman, was brought to the hospital later with a mine-blast injury and a fractured tibia, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.

The injured were diagnosed with shrapnel wounds and various wounds to the chest, abdomen, arms, and legs, Vitalii Khomukha, head of the surgical department of the city hospital, told Suspilne.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces liberated Kherson and other settlements on the west bank of the Dnipro River during a counteroffensive in the fall of 2022.

Russian troops were pushed to the river’s east bank, from where they have since been firing at the liberated territories, regularly resulting in civilian deaths, as well as large-scale destruction of homes and infrastructure.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

I’m never sleeping 😄

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— Patron (@patronthedog.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 9:02 AM

Open thread!