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Adam L Silverman

You are here: Home / Archives for Adam L Silverman

Adam L. Silverman is a consulting national security subject matter expert specializing in low intensity warfare (asymmetric, irregular, and unconventional warfare, revolution, insurgency, terrorism), civil affairs, psychological operations, and cultural considerations for strategy and policy.

He routinely provides operational support to a number of US Army, DOD, and other US Government elements. Dr. Silverman holds a doctorate in political science and criminology from the University of Florida, as well as masters' degrees in comparative religion and international security. Full professional bio available here: https://balloon-juice.com/adam-silverman-bio/

Adam Silverman has been a Balloon Juice writer since 2015.

Balloon Juice Bunker Standoff Day 6: Marking Our Beliefs to Market

by Adam L Silverman|  January 8, 201610:00 pm| 126 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics

ExtremistKillings2015Table1a*

As Day 6 at the Malheur Wildlife Refuge comes to an end, I wanted to mark some of my beliefs to market on what is, or is not, going on. In previous posts and comments I wrote that a slow, let these guys freeze their dupas off, while the Feds surround the facility and wait them out was a good strategy for dealing with Ammon Bundy and his compatriots. And if that’s what Federal law enforcement seemed to be doing, I’d be okay with it. Unfortunately, as many have brought up in comments, this doesn’t seem to be happening. Despite news reports that the Feds were deploying assets, no assets appear to be deployed.

While concerns of recreating the events at Waco or Ruby Ridge or Whidby Island are all compelling reasons to proceed slowly and methodically, they are not a good reason for appearing to do nothing. Moreover, that those who have broken into and are occupying the Malheur Wildlife Refuge are coming and going without interference is even more troubling. As they dribble out, they should be taken into custody, removed from the area, and charged. Concern for the safety and wellbeing of the local sheriff, as well as BLM personnel and Park Rangers is appropriate. Doing nothing because they are under threat is not. This is not like the case in Texas**, where for fifteen years a far right extremist isolated himself on his own property rather than appear in court to answer charges for assault against a law enforcement officer. In this case the local sheriff was correct: he’d imprisoned himself, so it wasn’t worth risking anyone’s life trying to dig him out.

And here is where I’m perplexed. The reports are that the Feds are doing something. However, no one seems to know what. Certainly Bundy and his fellow travelers don’t seem to have been effected in any way. Stealth and subtlety is often a good thing when dealing with far right extremists in the US, as they are heavily armed and violent – often unpredictably so, doing nothing at all sends all the wrong signals. It sends it to the extremists and their fellow travelers, as well as to people of color and those from other minority groups that have all to often been on the receiving end of what seems to be summary judgement and punishment from law enforcement. It also sends the wrong signal to the rest of Americans – that the rule of law is easily suspended. Not by the government, but by heavily armed white men with extreme beliefs.

At this point all I can write is that I’m perplexed. Federal officers surrounding the Malheur Refuge to keep Bundy and his fellow travelers in while they slowly froze in their own juices makes sense. Federal officers not seeming to do anything while Bundy and his fellow travelers come and go, but maintain an illegal occupation of Federal property at gunpoint does not.

* Pie chart on extremist violence in the US is from the ADL.

** Hat tip to TBogg.

Balloon Juice Bunker Standoff Day 6: Marking Our Beliefs to MarketPost + Comments (126)

Presidential Town Hall

by Adam L Silverman|  January 7, 20167:17 pm| 180 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Politics

St_Kilda_Town_Hall,_jjron,_23.10.2011*

Here’s a nice clean thread to get us ready for, and to experience, the Presidential Town Hall.

Talks amongst yourselves…

* This impressive building is the St. Kilda Town Hall.

Presidential Town HallPost + Comments (180)

Overnight Open Thread

by Adam L Silverman|  January 6, 20161:06 am| 64 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

SiubhanDuinne in a comment in the last thread wanted an open thread. So here it is. And in case she’s not checking the comments back in the previous thread, my answer to the question she posed in her FB post is:

Your idea will not happen. Not because its not a good idea, but because the gun manufacturers have been punished for previous baby steps. Bill Ruger, the eponymous head of Ruger firearms, made some overtures about banning high capacity magazines. Twelve years after his death and there are commenters all over the firearms websites that won’t buy a Ruger- one of the few companies where all of their guns are made in the US – because of this betrayal.

http://www.thegunzone.com/rkba/papabill.html

Smith and Wesson leadership was briefly aligned with the Clinton Administration on gun control and safety measures. The backlash almost put them out of business. They had badly misread what the response would be. Those in support of the Clinton Administration’s efforts and Smith and Wesson’s willingness to go along don’t buy guns. Those that do almost drove the company into bankruptcy by boycotting their products. To this day, the integral lock built into some Smith and Wesson revolvers is referred to as a “Hillary Hole”!
http://www.businessinsider.com…..ing-2013-1

No one is going to risk their business. They know they’ll be punished. You might be able to get the head of the National Shooting Sports Foundation, which is the actual trade group, to agree to a meeting, but even then I’m not sure NSSF would take the chance either.

Overnight Open ThreadPost + Comments (64)

Now We’re in the Kimche! Updated at 10:45

by Adam L Silverman|  January 5, 201610:00 pm| 92 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Silverman on Security

Hat tip to commenter “the Conster” for giving us a heads up about reports of a possible North Korean nuclear test. According to the BBC a 5.1 magnitude earthquake has been reported near sites in North Korea that had previously been used for nuclear weapons testing. This was about 30 miles from Punggye-ri, the site of previous nuclear tests and the US Geological Survey is reporting the quake at a depth of 10 kilometers. USGS is also, on the basis of Ambassador Rice’s remarks at the UN earlier this evening, reclassifying it from natural earthquake to man made nuclear event.

Needless to say this will be a fast moving and fluid story, so accounts are likely to change.

———Update———

The Guardian is reporting that the North Korean government has confirmed its fourth nuclear test conducted earlier today. The justification is its legal right to conduct such tests and an assertion that if the US doesn’t threaten North Korean sovereignty, then North Korea will not need to use nuclear weapons. The hat tip again goes to the Conster.

Now We’re in the Kimche! Updated at 10:45Post + Comments (92)

Balloon Juice Bunker Standoff Update Day 4: Steps are Being Taken

by Adam L Silverman|  January 5, 20168:31 pm| 98 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Politics, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome

Since John has already covered the Malheur Wildlife Refuge events twice today, I’m going to keep this one short. According to the Harney County Sheriff steps are being taken to resolve the standoff. And while they may not be visible, they are happening. He also indicated that his priority is the security and safety of the residents of Harney County while the FBI, Park Service, and other Federal officials take the lead in resolving the problem.

Despite some reports last night that Ammon Bundy indicated he and his followers would go home if asked by the local citizenry, he issued a statement today that that wouldn’t happen. Specifically last night’s tweet was from his brother Ryan and Ammon’s statement today was: “”We have been very active in forwarding our plan and assisting the people of Harney County in claiming and using their rights, then we will go home.” He then contradicted himself, making some remarks similar to his brother, but they were heavily caveated. Ammon Bundy indicated that if the locals asked them to leave they would, but that they’ve seen no indication of this yet. And that their purpose for being there was: “to get the logger back to logging, to get the rancher back to ranching, to get the miner back to mining, the farmer back to farming and to jump-start this economy”. What any of that has to do with the Constitution, I have no idea.

For those interested, here’s a link to an Oregon Live article that itself links to ten articles detailing all the charges and court case information regarding the Hammonds. This is the necessary background reading that needed to be out in the news media last week, but seems to just be trickling out now.

Balloon Juice Bunker Standoff Update Day 4: Steps are Being TakenPost + Comments (98)

Balloon Juice Bunker Standoff Update Day 3: What Do They Want?

by Adam L Silverman|  January 4, 201611:47 pm| 101 Comments

This post is in: America, Domestic Politics, Politics, Popular Culture, Their Motto: Apocalypse Now

In the comment threads to the posts about the standoff at the Malheur Wildlife Refuge there has been both speculation about, and references to, what exactly is driving Ammon Bundy and his fellow travelers. The answers to this are neither simple, nor are they necessarily straightforward and easy to follow. Charles Pierce at Esquire, as several have done in the comments, has articulated that Bundy and his followers are seditionists. I think this understanding of what they are doing makes a lot of sense, but I also think they are insurrectionists. The reason for this is that they clearly believe they are rebelling against not just governmental power, but tyrannical and despotic government power. That this, as Mr. Pierce has observed, is an irrational understanding of the United States in 2015, and the institutional problems that it faces, doesn’t really matter. They believe it and it is the basis of the definitions neutralizing of acceptable norms and favorable to their current actions.

So what exactly do they want? If you watched Ammon Bundy’s statement of his and his followers intentions, you might have come away confused. And if you watched his 19 minute statement from last Thursday, or John Ritzheimer’s from Saturday, you might be even more perplexed. The reason for this is that the ideology or theology or doctrine that is driving this is a bricolage – an ideational construct from a diverse set of ideas, theologies, dogmas, and beliefs. Not all of which actually compliment each other or fit and play well together. For those that accept them, they have a functional coherence. For those that do not subscribe to them, they are confusing, appear irrational, and seem to be contradictory, incoherent, and make little sense.

In short Ammon Bundy and his fellow travelers want the Constitution upheld, starting in Harney County, Oregon. They also want to reclaim the Malheur Wildlife Refuge and give it back to the people. Also, they intend to be non-violent until they are forced to be violent. Most of us hear or read this and think: huh? The Constitution has not been suspended by the Harney County Commission. The Malheur Wildlife Refuge already belongs to the people and is held in trust and administered for them by the Department of the Interior. And if your intention is to peaceably assemble to seek a redress of your grievances, why have you broken into and are unlawfully squatting in a Federal building where you’ve established sniper’s nests and are stating that you’ll become violent (non-peaceful) if your actions are challenged in a manner that you do not like?

The real issue here is that Ammon Bundy, as well as his father (as evidenced in his orations during the Bundy Ranch standoff in 2014), and the others involved with taking the Malheur Wildlife Refuge headquarters building have learned, and are now acting on, a completely alternative understanding of US history, the Constitution, their particular religion’s belief, etc. This is a combination of epistemic closure originating from alternative, and factually inaccurate*, source material combined with an equally irrational paranoia that powerful, sometimes secretive, forces are arrayed against them and trying to destroy their way of life. It is all cemented by a pervasive belief that everyone and everything that is not part of their ideological/theological/doctrinal system is either purposefully trying to deceive them or being manipulated and fooled into doing it unwittingly. This is why they first appealed to the Harney County Sheriff, because they believe he is the highest level of legitimate Constitutional government in America**, and once he rebuffed them, they immediately denounced him as somehow being coopted by their enemies or an outright traitor.

Some of Bundy’s and his followers ideas appear to come from the extremes and fringes of Mormon theology. This includes the references to Captain Moroni, who according to Latter Day Saints’ scripture led a successful uprising against a despotic king. It also includes a healthy dose of good old American millenarianism and eschatology and the belief that the Deity is blessing one’s endeavors because one believes them to be righteous. This has been with us since the Revolution when many of the Founders framed the coming fight with King George in apocalyptic terms and the revolutionaries as godly, righteous, and blessed. There also appear to be concepts carried forward from the Sagebrush Rebellion and the Wise Use movement of the 1980s. From what’s been presented, their beliefs also include typical and traditional tropes from the American extreme right. These include ideas about the role of government, civil society, and race relations incorporated from the John Birch Society; the Posse Comitatus movement; Christian Reconstructionism/Dominionism; Charismatic Christianity (which was also a baseline for Christian Identity); long standing anti-tax beliefs; and an extremely absolutist understanding of the 2nd Amendment combined with minimalist interpretations of the 1st and 10th Amendment; as well as the Supremacy Clause. Finally, a number of concepts that were in the Confederate Constitution, or in one case the lack of a clause about promoting the general welfare in the Confederate Constitution, seem to also be in play here.

It would be easy to dismiss all of this externally incoherent thought except that it is the social behavioral driver of an increasing number of disturbing incidents that the US seems unprepared to address. What we are witnessing is the result of social learning. These ideas and beliefs are transmitted through the primary associations of family, religion, and education – sometimes religious and sometimes home schooling. Learning that is both formal and informal. They function as the definitions favorable, unfavorable, and neutralizing that enable, promote, or retard behavior. Definitions favorable tell us what acceptable behaviors are. Definitions unfavorable retard unacceptable behaviors. Definitions neutralizing temporarily override definitions unfavorable, based on specific contexts, allowing normally unacceptable, illegal, illicit, deviant, and/or delinquent behavior to occur. These definitions are then socially reinforced within the group, movement, or society when they see other members rewarded or punished for their behavior. This leads to imitation – recreating the behaviors that the group or movement or society seems to reward. It is also almost impossible to counter or disrupt social learning from the outside without an overwhelming intervening event. This is why, 150 years after the end of the Great Rebellion (now doing business as the Civil War), white supremacy and racism still flourish in the US. It is very, very hard to disrupt and change (reconstruct) ideational systems and the cultures that they reside within. The Egyptians believed they had deradicalized the Muslim Brothers while they were incarcerated. Egypt’s reality over the last three years tells us this was not a successful endeavor.***

So what does all this mean for what is happening at the Malheur Wildlife Refuge? At one level it means we know what it is they believe, even if it doesn’t quite seem to add up for those of us looking in from the outside. It also means we know the process by which these beliefs are transmitted, as well as how they are adjusted over time. Developing a way to ever be able to successfully neutralize those beliefs, even if it is just long enough so that the current standoff can be ended without further incident, is the difficult part. In many ways Ammon Bundy, his father and brothers, and his followers at Malheur Wildlife Refuge and across the country are using the same words, grammar, and syntax as the rest of us. Unfortunately, they are also speaking a completely different language and there is no translation codex to help us interpret the conversation, establish communications, build rapport, and engage with them to constructive ends.

* That the material and what is derived from it is factually inaccurate is irrelevant. Even trying to demonstrate the inaccuracies is enough to further confirm them.

** That one of Bundy’s leadership circle is the husband of a NH state legislator (the one from CNN’s focus group who believes the President comes on the television in order to lie to her) just shows how little external coherence and validity the belief system has. If the highest, legitimate Constitutional officer is the county sheriff, then why would one support one’s spouse in seeking state level elected office?

*** Full disclosure: I was asked to write the review of Ashour’s book on the deradicalization of jihadis for the journal Politics and Religion.

Balloon Juice Bunker Standoff Update Day 3: What Do They Want?Post + Comments (101)

Questions About the National Guard: Clarification on Title 10 Versus Title 32

by Adam L Silverman|  January 4, 20164:41 pm| 28 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics

Seal_of_the_United_States_National_Guard.svg

Several questions have arisen over the past few days about whether the National Guard could be mobilized by the Oregon governor and sent to Harney County. So we have an answer in one place, here’s the link to the National Guard Bureau’s fact sheet. And here’s the actual fact sheet itself:

Understanding the Guard’s Duty Status*

Many events trigger responses across multiple jurisdictions and different levels of government. The National Guard is exceptionally suited for its Homeland Defense role due to its geographically disperse forces with links to local communities and ties to state and local governments. These relationships allow for rapid and integrated responses in times of emergency. Because of its unique dual constitutional authority, the National Guard serves to bridge the “zone of ambiguity” across State and Federal government boundaries.

The National Guard is the only United States military force that operates across both State and Federal responses, leveraging State Active Duty (SAD), Full-Time National Guard Duty (Title 32) and Active Duty (Title 10). While SAD, Title 32 and Title 10 are different statuses and roles, they provide mutually supporting capability.

In the 2010 National Defense Authorization Act, Congress passed legislation which partially eliminated mutual exclusivity with regard to Chain of Command, allowing specially designated National Guard officers to command forces in both Title 10 and Title 32 statuses – designated as a Dual Status Commanders.

State Active Duty (SAD)

The Governor can activate National Guard personnel to “State Active Duty” in response to natural or man-made disasters or Homeland Defense missions. SAD is based on State statue and policy as well as State funds. Soldiers and Airmen remain under the command and control of the Governor. A key aspect of this duty status is that the Posse Comitatus Act does not apply, giving National Guardsmen the ability to act in a law enforcement capacity within their home state or adjacent state if granted by that state’s Governor.

Title 32 Full-Time National Guard Duty

“Full-time National Guard Duty” means training or other duty, other than inactive duty, performed by a member of the National Guard. Title 32 allows the Governor, with the approval of the President or the Secretary of Defense, to order a member to duty for operational Homeland Defense activities in accordance with the following sections of U.S. Code (USC): 1. 32 USC 502 (f): This statue allows member of the National Guard to be ordered to full-time National Guard duty to perform operational activities. It was used for the Airport Security mission after 9/11 and also for Hurricane Katrina and Rita response effort. 2. 32 USC § 901: The term “Homeland Defense activity” means an activity undertaken for the military protection of the territory or domestic population of the U.S., or of infrastructure or other asset of the U.S. determined by the Secretary of Defense as being critical to national security and at risk of a threat or aggression against the U.S. 3. 32 USC § 902 – Homeland Defense activities: funds. (a) The Secretary of Defense may provide funds to a Governor to employ National Guard units or members to conduct Homeland Defense activities that the Secretary determines necessary and appropriate for participation by the National Guard or members. The key to this instance is that Federal Law provides the Governor with the ability to place a soldier in a full-time duty status under the command and control of the State but is directly funded with Federal dollars. Even though this duty status is authorized by Federal statue, this section is a statutory exception to the Posse Comitatus Act; the Governor may use the Guard in a law enforcement capacity while the chain of command rests in the State.

Title 10 Active-Duty

“Active duty” means full-time duty in the active military service of the U.S. Title 10. It allows the President to “federalize” the National Guard forces by ordering them to active duty in their reserve component status or by calling them into Federal service in their militia status in accordance with the following USC sections:

1. 10 USC § 12301 (d) – Voluntary Order to Active Duty: At any time, a member of the National Guard may be ordered to active duty voluntarily with his or her consent and the consent of the Governor. Understanding the Guard’s Duty Status

2. 10 USC § 12302 – Partial Mobilization: In time of national emergency declared by the President, the Secretary concerned may order any unit and any member to active duty for no more than 24 consecutive months.

3. 10 USC § 12304 – Presidential Selected Reserve Call Up: When the President determines that it is necessary to augment the active force or any operational mission, he may authorize the service secretaries to order any unit and any member to active duty for not more than 365 days.

4. 10 USC § 331 – Federal Aid to State Governors: Whenever an insurrection occurs in any State against its government, the President may, upon the request of its legislature or of its Governor, if the legislature cannot be convened, call into Federal service such of the militia of the other States, in the number requested by that State, and use such of the armed forces, as he considers necessary to suppress the insurrection. This section is a statutory exception to the Posse Comitatus Act.

5. 10 USC § 332 – Use of Militia and Armed Forces to Enforce Federal Authority: Whenever the President considers that unlawful obstructions, combinations, assemblages, or rebellion against the authority of the U.S., make it impractical to enforce the laws of the U.S. in any State or Territory by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings, he may call into Federal service such of the militia of any State, and use such of the armed forces as he considers necessary to enforce those laws or to suppress the rebellion. This section is a statutory exception to the Posse Comitatus Act.

6. 10 USC § 333 – Interference with State and Federal Law: The President, by using the militia or the armed forces, or both, or by any other means, shall take such measures as he considers necessary to suppress, in a State, any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy if it: a. So hinders the execution of the law of that State, and of the U.S. within the State, that any part or class of its people is deprived of a right, privilege, immunity or protection named in the Constitution and secured by law, and the constituted authorities of that State are unable, fail or refuse to protect that right, privilege, or immunity, or to give that protection; or b. Opposes or obstructs the execution of the laws of the U.S. or impedes the course of justice under those laws. In any situation covered by clause (1), the State shall be considered to have denied the equal protection of the laws secured by the Constitution.

7. 10 USC § 12406 – Air and Army National Guard: Air and Army National Guard call into Federal service in case of invasion, rebellion or inability to execute Federal law with active forces.

Additional Laws and Authorities

Stafford Act (42 USC § 5121) – designed to bring an orderly and systemic means of federal natural disaster assistance for state and local governments in carrying out their responsibilities to aid citizens. Congress’ intention was to encourage states and localities to develop comprehensive disaster preparedness plans, prepare for better intergovernmental coordination in the face of a disaster, encourage the use of insurance coverage, and provide Federal assistance programs for losses due to a disaster. Posse Comitatus Act (18 USC § 1385)

* The table in Item #7 wouldn’t reproduce, so please click over to see that.

Questions About the National Guard: Clarification on Title 10 Versus Title 32Post + Comments (28)

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