Cheryl Rofer

The main evidence comes from North Korea in photos and bombastic statements. They fake stuff, including photographs, so the analysts also test the photos for enhancement. But there is much we can learn even from faked photos. These three show clearly that it is liquid-fueled. The orange clouds are distinctively dinitrogen tetraoxide, the oxidant for liquid-fueled missiles.

Here’s another photo that shows how things are figured out.  Additionally, the outdoor photos show landmarks that help to nail down the location of the tests. Sometimes North Korea lies about that too. This article works out the range from North Korean statements and explains “lofted” missile tests, in which the missile is aimed very high to avoid, as much as possible, disturbing the neighbors.

A statement I found puzzling was that the missile could carry “a large-size heavy nuclear warhead.” Does this mean heavy in its megatonnage yield or physically heavy? The first implies significant progress in nuclear weapons design, the second not so much. BTW, Anna Fifield is a good reporter to follow – she has connections to some of the best analysts and listens to them.

The White House issued a bizarre statement, seemingly trying to goad Russia.

Here are the EU and NATO statements, which are more customary. Vladimir Putin issued a clear statement that the North Korean test but warning the United States about “intimidating” North Korea, probably referring to provocative statements and movement (or not) of military equipment. He also calls for talks, which are the only way we can slow down North Korea’s progress.

Update: Here are a couple more good articles.

If Americans Can Find North Korea on a Map, They’re More Likely to Prefer Diplomacy

Melissa Hanham is one of my go-to people for North Korean missiles. Here’s what she has to say.

Cross-posted at Nuclear Diner.