Preliminary speaker on now. Open thread.
President Biden Delivers Remarks On The EconomyPost + Comments (118)
Cheryl Rofer wrote at Balloon Juice from 2017-21.
Cheryl is a retired chemist who has has been particularly active with nuclear policy. Cheryl has her own blog, Nuclear Diner, and she also posts at Lawyers, Guns & Money.
Twitter: @CherylRofer
This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Open Threads
Preliminary speaker on now. Open thread.
President Biden Delivers Remarks On The EconomyPost + Comments (118)
This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus, Assholes
There is a great kerfuffle right now of people wanting to be The Guy [word used advisedly] Who Got It Right on the origin of the virus. FRIST! Unfortunately, none of those guys are virologists.
According to Politico, that raggiest of political rags, Facebook will no longer take down posts claiming that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is human engineered.
The question of the virus’s origin has already been muddled badly by irresponsible blatherers like Nate Silver, Nicholas Wade, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (who printed Wade’s fantasies), and Nicholson Baker, among others. What those muddlers have in common is that none of them are virologists, and at least two are pushing their favored fantasies. Wade has proved his inability to separate his fantasies from science by publishing a book arguing that “racial” differences are real.
On the origin of the virus, here’s where a scientist starts:
The virologists and serious people who are looking into this have not “changed their minds.” Their position has been that we don’t have enough data to figure out the virus’s origin. That continues to be their position. More investigation is good.
Unfortunately, there is a gaggle of people pushing pet ideas and their egos. Don’t listen to them.
This post is in: Science & Technology, Assholes
To be fair, it’s not just him. Other countries and gazillionaires are planning to send their space junk into orbit too. But Musk is ahead of the pack, and it would be a good idea to do something about it before things get too crowded up there.
“Constellations” of thousands of satellites promise internet everywhere, with profits for the owners of the constellations. It makes sense for enormous countries like Russia and China to consider this, and they are doing that.
But there are a number of problems. Musk’s Skylink is ruining optical astronomy.
A traffic jam is forming at the altitude these satellites orbit. There has been one near miss already.
Improved communications between satellite operators are also necessary: in 2019, the European Space Agency moved an Earth observation satellite to avoid colliding with a Starlink satellite, after failing to reach SpaceX by e-mail. Internationally adopted ‘right of way’ rules are needed to prevent games of ‘chicken’, as companies seek to preserve thruster fuel and avoid service interruptions.
Then there are the atmospheric effects from carbon black and alumina in the rocket fuels to put the satellites up there and from the destruction of the satellites as they are de-orbited. This may work against global warming, but the experiment is being done without any planning.
Oh, and some chunks of satellite may make it to the ground.
There are reasons for hope. SpaceX is showing some leadership with rapid end-of-life deorbiting, automatic collision avoidance, and visors to reduce light pollution, even if these are not yet sufficient. Spacefaring countries, moreover, recognize that debris threatens all satellites, including military satellites. Some are strengthening their national regulations, including by incorporating non-binding international guidelines into binding national laws. However, there is little recognition that Earth’s orbit is a finite resource, the space and Earth environments are connected, and the actions of one actor can affect everyone. Until that changes, we risk multiple tragedies of the commons in space.
It’s an easy paper to read and has references to others.
Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Trump Crime Cartel
Belarus has forced down a Ryanair plane flying from Athens to Vilnius in order to arrest a Belarusian journalist aboard.
Lukashenko has been holding on to the presidency after an election in which his opponent clearly won since last August. Protests have continued.
And speaking of thuggery, Juliette Kayyem has a good thread about MAGA thuggery and stochastic violence. Selections:
This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus, Assholes
I’ve been thinking a lot about the future of the pandemic in the US since last week’s poorly planned CDC announcement that the vaccinated no longer need wear masks. I’d still like to hear from Joe Biden and Rochelle Walensky about what happened and what they expect from here on, but it looks like that won’t happen.
So here’s what I expect.
In Santa Fe, mask-wearing has changed little. Only three people out of maybe 50 in Trader Joe’s on Thursday were not wearing masks. Today at the Farmers’ Market, which is mostly outdoors, I saw one naked face until I got back to my car, where a party of five naked faces from the van parked next to my car were obstructing my way. I asked nicely, and they moved. But yeah, it’s going to be the obnoxious ones who don’t wear masks.
I saw a study tweeted this week that said that people are doing pretty much what they were doing before the announcement. That’s what I’m seeing in Santa Fe.
I wish I had a computer model, and I wish that the CDC were releasing the results of modeling that I’m sure they’ve done. But here’s my best guess as to how it’s going to go. People will ease into more relaxed precautions. All the while, more and more get vaccinated, and some will come through their case of covid with immunity. We still have tens of thousands becoming ill every day, and hundreds dying.
But we’re at 85% of over 70’s vaccinated, and the percent of the rest of over-12s is creeping up to 50%. That’s enough to slow down the transmission of the virus. It looks like the vaccinated seldom catch the virus and don’t much shed virus when they do, so that’s a hard stop for transmission.
Bottom line: I think that we’re not going to see another surge in the US. Maybe a little bump for the obnoxious ones.
This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Domestic Politics
President Joe Biden was a senator for 36 years. He has seen horse-trading. He has seen comity with segregationists. He has seen deadlock and filibusters. He has seen bipartisanship. He has seen Newt Gingrich’s power grab. He has seen Mitch McConnell’s obstructionism.
He knows how the Senate and the House work.
One of the things he learned is that nothing happens quickly in the Senate, particularly when the margin is as close as it is now. But there are ways. Those ways are not played out in the public eye. They involve quiet talks and promises, agreement and respect. Some of these things may even be feigned. But feigning respect, for example, is itself a way of showing respect.
None of these tactics was useful in an administration devoted to one man’s whims. The old ways decayed even before that, under Gingrich’s and his successors’ scorched-earth politics. Reporters who grew up since Gingrich do not recognize that other tactics exist. They do not recognize that relationships are built and doubts sowed behind the scenes. They are accustomed to tantrums and sudden shows of power. They do not have the tools to describe the wide array of tactics Biden brings with him.
President Biden Restores Strategy To PoliticsPost + Comments (54)
Ulrike Franke wrote a piece about younger German policy analysts that overlaps with what I’m describing. It’s not just German.
I think we are beginning to see results of Biden’s tactics. It’s early, but there is a premium on being the first to point things out.
Thirty-five House Republicans voted to form a commission to investigate the January 6 attack on the Capitol.
Every time there’s a defining vote, including both impeachments, Trump keeps losing a greater number of Republicans in each new episode. A math-minded person could chart it! 1 yes (Romney in Impeachment #1; next time ten House members+7 Senators; now 35 House members.
Paul Ryan, former Republican Speaker of the House, is holding a fundraiser for Adam Kinzinger, one of the 35.
That is how to move the Senate too. A few at a time. As one senator moves (Mitt Romney), it becomes easier for others.
On the Democratic side we have Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. It’s hard to say what Sinema is about, but Manchin has been a Democratic senator in a red state since 2010. Before that, he was in West Virginia state government for 28 years. He knows what Biden knows. John Stoehr puts forth an analysis of Manchin’s actions that is similar to what I’m saying here.
Manchin speaks of bipartisanship and has co-authored a letter with Republican Lisa Murkowski urging the Senate to pass a voting rights act that should be able to pass the Supreme Court that struck down the earlier version of that act. It is not the full-throated voting rights acts that the House has put forward. It may well be shot down by Senate Republicans.
But having put it forward in a bipartisan way gives Manchin ammunition to say, later, well the Republicans aren’t going to cooperate, so I sadly will have to vote with my Democratic colleagues to remove the filibuster, which has been so badly misused.
Biden is redefining bipartisanship to mean the will of the people; he cites polls that indicate his actions are approved by as much as 75% of the American people. That necessarily includes some Trump voters. If Manchin’s bipartisan approach in the Senate fails, that strengthens Biden’s all-America approach and perhaps gives Manchin an opening to vote against the filibuster.
With those 35 Republicans, the House passed a bill for a 1/6 Commission. The Senate is now contemplating it. You can be sure discussions are taking place behind the scenes. Chuck Schumer will bring it to the floor when he has the votes or when it is clear he can pin it on the Republicans. Which would strengthen a Manchin vote against the filibuster.
It’s early, and we are seeing small indicators. Things can still go bad. It’s easy to wish for decisive action and demand that Democrats move without Republicans. But splitting the Republicans will make it easier to get important legislation passed and may even help to break the Republican Party sufficiently that it has to reform.
Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner
This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Open Threads
Presumably he will be speaking on the ceasefire expected to go into effect in an hour or two. To start at 45 minutes past the hour.