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Balloon Juice

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Damn right I heard that as a threat.

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

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Their freedom requires your slavery.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

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Glad to see john eastman going through some things.

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Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

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You are here: Home / Archives for Elias Isquith

Elias Isquith wrote at Balloon Juice from 2012-13.

Elias Isquith

Everything You Hate About Political Journalism In One Post

by Elias Isquith|  July 26, 20124:35 pm| 40 Comments

This post is in: Media, Politics, General Stupidity

This post, from The Washington Post‘s “The Fix” blog, is nearly laudable for its complete and utter disregard for any traditional understanding of what it means to be a journalist. Blake’s writing about the aforementioned “It worked” lie, and in the process of writing 300 or so words of nothing, journo Aaron Blake distills everything contemptible about vacuous horse race coverage into one radioactive post:

There’s a lot of controversy these days about campaign tactics and what crosses the line. Obama’s team has been crying foul for two weeks now that “You didn’t build that” has been taken badly out of context by Republicans.

The problem is, the gray area is just too gray. Fact-checkers are great (especially our Glenn Kessler), but as long as either side has an argument to justify its attacks, the history of politics dictates that it’s all fair game.

Romney’s team is exploiting that fact — to the credit of its political acumen, if not its strict adherence to accuracy.

OK. Right off the bat we have the frivolous “the game inside the game” version of analysis that is the raison d’etre of “The Fix” and, just by the way, the reason I feel slightly unclean every time I end up there. What Blake’s doing here is professionalizing, intellectualizing, romanticizing, what have you, a “tactic” being implemented by Team Romney that most rational people would describe rather simply: lying. There’s nothing special about it, and recognizing its being done does not make you some kind of savvy insider. It’s lying; it’s been around since Krog first ran against Urk for the Presidency of Cave 193.

So not only is Blake engaging in vacuous, post-modern wankery — he’s doing so in service of what’s a rather ho-hum development.

It gets worse.

Things really go off the rails once Blake attempts to parse a new Republican ad, one that takes the President’s “It worked” wildly and predictably out-of-context. Now even though most observers sympathetic to the President found the whole “You didn’t build that” kerfuffle to rest on a patent distortion, I think that at my most charitable I could imagine someone honestly thinking Obama more or less said what Republicans claimed. But “It worked” is another story. He’s clearly talking about tax policy — specifically raising taxes to Clinton-era rates on the top 2% of earners — and no amount of pretzel logic or sophistry can even half-convincgly turn “It worked” into an endorsement of the economic status quo. Lucky for Obama’s antagonists, then, that they’ve Blake around to bullshit for them:

If you’re a Democrat, Romney’s [“It worked”] ad will look wildly out of context and irresponsible.

But if you’re a Republican, you can make a credible case that the ad is completely justified.

It goes like this: Obama was contrasting two different tax policies — one being the Republican policy, and the other being the Democrats’ policy. Obama was talking about how the Democrats’ policy is better. But Democrats have been in the White House for four years now, and things are still bad. So obviously Democrats’ policies — on taxes or otherwise — aren’t that great.

If you’re predisposed against Romney, that sort of justification will seem ludicrous and make your skin crawl. But it paints just enough of a gray area over the whole matter to justify the attack.

In case your brain started hemorrhaging around “things are still bad,” here’s what Blake — despite his “if you’re a Republican” sock-puppetry — is arguing: Obama wants to return to Clinton’s tax program. Clinton, like Obama, is a Democrat. Obama has been President during a time of economic distress. Therefore, it is “credible” and “completely justified” to argue that all Democratic policies, even the ones that are not in effect, are responsible for the present crisis. The Civil Rights Act? Social Security? S-CHIP? The Camp David Accords? They’re all utterly discredited because the unemployment rate is above 8 percent. Or something.

I guess if you’re writing something this bad, you better finish strong (i.e., terribly); so Blake wraps things up with a weirdly condescending finish, one that leaves the reader with the distinct impression that Blake thinks himself some clear-eyed teller of hard truths:

Romney may be attacked in the days ahead for running an out-of-context campaign, and some objective reporters might even say it has gone too far.

But the fact is that these two comments further clarify a picture (or caricature, depending on where you stand) of Obama that’s already out there. And plenty of — nay, almost all — people who don’t dissect this stuff as much as we do are going to take the pulled quotes at face value.

Is it warm and fuzzy? No. Does it work? Yes. And that’s why they do it.

Let’s not even bother untangling whether his claim that these ads “work” is true. It strikes me as profoundly in need of further definition — what does “it work” even mean in this context? That Romney will win the Presidency because voters heard Obama say a silly thing? — but that would require a degree of thought on our part that Blake clearly didn’t expend for himself. Instead, let’s just thank Yahweh that the only people who take this kind of crap seriously are likely small in number and certainly well beyond saving.

Everything You Hate About Political Journalism In One PostPost + Comments (40)

Good News For People Who Enjoy Out-Of-Context Misrepresentation

by Elias Isquith|  July 26, 20121:34 pm| 23 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Media, Politics, Republican Stupidity

Via Ed Kilgore, who cites it as evidence that we’re “entering a fact-free zone,” I see that Dave Weigel’s bored and desperate for copy enough to fisk the latest Republican attack video:

At this point, getting video clips of Obama from Republican campaigns is like getting an article pitch from Jayson Blair. It might tell a good story, but you need to run down the source and triple-check. Jim Geraghty points to our latest example, a rapid response video from the RNC that clips Obama’s speech from Oakland.

Just like we’ve tried their plan, we tried our plan — and it worked. That’s the difference. That’s the choice in this election.  That’s why I’m running for a second term.

Pretty stupid! As Geraghty points out, with a smorgasboard of links, the economy is still horrible three and a half years after Obama took office. But what was the rest of the quote?

I’ll cut out government spending that’s not working, that we can’t afford, but I’m also going to ask anybody making over $250,000 a year to go back to the tax rates they were paying under Bill Clinton, back when our economy created 23 million new jobs, the biggest budget surplus in history and everybody did well. Just like we’ve tried their plan, we tried our plan — and it worked. That’s the difference. That’s the choice in this election. That’s why I’m running for a second term.

What are the chances? Another radical Obama quote that’s just a clipped version of something all Democrats believe.

So almost immediately, Moe Lane of RedState (the dude who covered himself in glory by ridiculing Roger Ebert for having cancer),* was a-posting with the new video and needling the President like he were some kind of cancer-ridden loser. I’m sure the entire rightwing blogosphere has already jumped all over the video. That it’s a cut-and-dry misrepresentation of the President’s words doesn’t seem to matter. As I discovered in an earlier post, the actual veracity of a GOP quote of the President doesn’t matter; because even if Obama didn’t quite say what they’re saying he said, his comment nevertheless revealed his true ideology.

It’s been said before — and it’s a bit of an easy zinger, admittedly — but I’m always struck by how often movement conservatives end up sounding like unreconstructed Communists, the kind who were positive they understood their enemies’ motivations better than those contemptible bourgeois capitalists ever could. Obama is objectively anti-business owner, you see. Or, to take an example from an especially incoherent Reason blog post, he’s “objectively” not the most anti-gun President ever… except, y’know, basically he totally is:

So is Obama “the most anti-gun president in history,” as the NRA warned he would be four years ago? Objectively, no. …But his current rhetoric and his past support for highly restrictive laws, including the D.C. and Chicago gun bans that were overturned by the Supreme Court, suggest the NRA has a pretty good handle on what Obama would do if Americans were not so adamant about clinging to their guns.

Trust me, it all makes sense—but only if you’ve read your Burke.

 

*Update: Turns out Moe Lane and Caleb Howe are, um, technically different entities. My apologies; I was really messed-up on “Vodka shooters” when I wrote this post.

Good News For People Who Enjoy Out-Of-Context MisrepresentationPost + Comments (23)

Open Thread: Batman As Feudal Lord

by Elias Isquith|  July 24, 20123:36 pm| 66 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

[Spoilers abound, obviously.]

Gavin Mueller has a fun piece up at Jacobin, looking at the politics of The Dark Knight Rises and the Nolans’ Batman trilogy in general. He skips over what I agree is a rather ho-hum bit of analysis — the Batman conceit is somewhat fascist; but so are all superhero narratives — in favor of boring-down on a more provocative claim. Despite his Enterprises and his billions, Mueller writes, Bruce Wayne is much more Louis XIV than Forbes 500:

This Batman-as-financier stuff is a trick played by casting the actor whose greatest role was a psychopathic i-banker. Yes, Wayne is rich, but that’s not the same as being a capitalist. The guy running the bodega down the street is more of a capitalist than Bruce Wayne. Wayne has no interest in profit, in accumulation, in investing his wealth to produce more wealth. If you don’t see M-C-M’ you don’t have capitalism. Now, the character of Bruce Wayne has always been imbued with noblesse oblige, but let’s not get that confused with what a capitalist does. Wayne funds orphanages and renewable energy in distinction to the actual capitalist, Daggett, who is trying to pillage Wayne Enterprises, Bain-Capital-style. Daggett is pointedly dissed at a party full of rich people because he’s only interested in money. Those silly noveau-riche, so gauche, am I right?

So this is a class struggle all right, but it’s not between Bane’s pseudo-proles and Gotham’s elite with their cop army. That’s a sideshow. The struggle is within the ruling class itself, between the capitalist Daggett and the aristocratic Wayne. Wayne is far more feudalism than finance: heir to a manor complete with fawning manservant, unconcerned with business or money-making, bound by duty and honor even if it makes him a recluse.

I’ve enjoyed all of the Nolan Batman movies, for what it’s worth. But at the same time I struggle to deny describe much of Mueller’s criticism as without merit. It certainly bugs me, too, how inept the Nolans seem to be at injecting pathos into their films in some manner other than through dead or dying female love interests. However, with the recent Rotten Tomatoes incidences fresh in my mind, I think I’ll stop typing now and hope Mueller takes the heat in my stead.

Open Thread: Batman As Feudal LordPost + Comments (66)

BREAKING: Matt Bai Is Wrong

by Elias Isquith|  July 24, 201211:34 am| 49 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Election 2012, Media, Politics

Prestige political journalism is so frequently brain-dead or bankrupt, it’s worthwhile to note those occasions when someone whose byline appears below a fancy masthead pens something insightful and true. And this is especially worthwhile if the good work in question comes from even-the-liberal-New Republic.

So it is with great pleasure that I present a recent, excellent piece from TNR‘s Alec MacGillis — a takedown of that paragon of Village Wisdom, Matt Bai, and his recent attempt to downplay the significance of Citizens United:

Everyone loves a good counter-intuitive story, but Washington loves one sort in particular: the kind that assures us all that something we’ve been led to believe was a worrisome problem is, in fact, not all that big a deal after all, thus allowing us to return to watching “Veep” or “The Newsroom.” Yesterday’s New York Times Magazine offered a classic of this form, a Matt Bai piece arguing that the Citizens United ruling of 2010 is not nearly as responsible for the boom in campaign spending by outside groups as those whiny goo-goo types make it out to be[.]

Bai’s argument basically rests on the fact that campaign spending has been increasing near-exponentially for a while now, certainly before the Supreme Court decided it was long past time to remove the boot-heel of government from the Koch brothers’ necks. And that’s true enough. But what Bai ignored — despite apparently speaking at-length with campaign law expert Rick Hasen when conducting research for the article — is the way Citizens United removed the under-appreciated but very real financial penalties that used to loom above anyone hoping to circumvent electoral finance law:

As I told Matt, and what’s missing from this piece, is the realization that there was considerable legal risk in giving to a 527 before Citizens United and its aftermath. As one reader to commented to me, “Matt’s article suggests that not much has changed post-Citizens United because even prior to the CU decision, “you would have been free to write a check for any amount to a 527 . . . .”  This is untrue and all three groups Matt cites were determined by the FEC to have violated federal law during the 2004 cycle.  ACT paid a $775,000 fine (http://www.fec.gov/press/press2007/20070829act.shtml).  SwiftVets paid a $299,500 fine (http://www.fec.gov/press/press2006/20061213murs.html).  Club for Growth paid a $350,000 fine (http://www.fec.gov/press/press2007/20070905cfg.shtml).

If Sheldon Adelson really was planning on giving $100 million to 527s before the Citizens United revolution to support a presidential candidate, you can bet that there would be a criminal investigation and very serious charges considered. i have serious doubts Adelson or anyone else would have risked this (much less corporations giving considerable sums to 501c4s for election-related activity).  Now we can debate (and I have debated with others) whether the law barring contributions greater than $5,000 to independent expenditure committees would have fallen even if CU had come out the other way.  But that’s a different point than the one Matt was making.

There’s no reason to think we’d see this explosion of outside money if CU did not start this cascade of events.

Moreover, as more than a few journalists who spend time talking to left-of-center folks besides Bob Kerrey could’ve told Bai, the post-Citizens United world is expressly felicitous to the Right, since rightwing sugar daddies like Adelson or the brothers Koch are not only willing to pour barrels of cash into elections but are ideologically and financially predisposed to do so. MacGillis makes this point at length:

[T]here is a whole other swath of wealthy liberals who realize full well what the stakes are in this fall’s election, even if they are perhaps not as “pumped up” as they were in 2004. But they are holding back from giving as much as they could to the SuperPACs and other outside groups precisely because they are “queasy” about them. That is what I found in speaking to many of these potential donors for a recent article, and it is what Robert Draper found in reporting his own recent Times Magazine piece about the pro-Obama SuperPAC. Put simply, Citizens United put liberals at such a disadvantage not only because the other side has more millionaires and billionaires and friends in high corporate places, but because the left’s millionaires and billionaires have existential qualms about unlimited campaign donations that simply do not exist on the right.

Personally, I find these liberals’ squeamishness to be profoundly annoying. I think it sucks that our elections are now, even more than they already were, largely contests between warring members of the 1 percent. But the best way to change that isn’t for liberals with money (aka power) to take their ball, go home, and rest serenely in their self-righteousness while President Romney places judges on the Supreme Court who’ll make Scalia look like a RINO squish. Changing corrupt systems can’t be accomplished entirely from the inside, true; but unless Soros has plans to don a mask and cape, working from the outside isn’t going to be enough either.

My kvetching aside, you simply cannot argue that Citizens United hasn’t been the catalyst for shifts in the electoral playing field without addressing MacGillis’s point. As he says of Bai, “Only someone trying willfully to rationalize the status quo” would do otherwise.

BREAKING: Matt Bai Is WrongPost + Comments (49)

See No Evil

by Elias Isquith|  July 23, 20121:15 pm| 34 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Media, Politics

Recently, Doug J highlighted a supremely depressing Washington Post article on resurgent poverty in America, and John flagged a recent Bill Moyers episode featuring Chris Hedges, who spoke about his new book, Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt, an in-depth examination of those blighted communities Americans have collectively abandoned to the most inhumane and exploitative forces of the “free market.” (I put “free market” in scare-quotes in hopes of furthering Dean Baker’s quest to show the in truth distorted nature of the US economic system.) If you watch Hedges’ appearance, you’ll see that a key motivation behind the creation of the book was to highlight what Hedges calls “sacrifice zones,” economically and culturally devastated regions that, for most of us, hide in plain sight.

I think it’s unlikely that these two phenomena — skyrocketing poverty and its effectively invisible locales — are unrelated.

You’ve probably heard before about how Americans are increasingly choosing to live only around people who share their political views. Bill Bishop’s The Big Sort is most responsible for spreading the word to a mass audience; no less an authority than former President Clinton endorsed Bishop’s work. But as you might guess, considering Clinton’st most high-profile comments about the book were delivered during an Aspen Ideas Festival colloquy, many people have used Bishop’s work as an excuse to kvetch about incivility in American politics. If only Michele Bachmann’s kids played on the same soccer team as Al Franken’s — then we’d all get along! Needless to say, this is indicative of that unique strain of frivolous narcissism that calls Aspen and Davos home.

More important than partisans of Team Jacob and Team Edward, respectively, choosing to live on separate sides of the county line is a recent study from Stanford that found Americans are segregating along economic as well as cultural lines. Here’s how The New York Times described its findings:

The findings show a changed map of prosperity in the United States over the past four decades, with larger patches of affluence and poverty and a shrinking middle.

In 2007, the last year captured by the data, 44 percent of families lived in neighborhoods the study defined as middle-income, down from 65 percent of families in 1970. At the same time, a third of American families lived in areas of either affluence or poverty, up from just 15 percent of families in 1970. […]

Much of the shift is the result of changing income structure in the United States. Part of the country’s middle class has slipped to the lower rungs of the income ladder as manufacturing and other middle-class jobs have dwindled, while the wealthy receive a bigger portion of the income pie. Put simply, there are fewer people in the middle.

But the shift is more than just changes in income. The study also found that there is more residential sorting by income, with the rich flocking together in new exurbs and gentrifying pockets where lower- and middle-income families cannot afford to live.

The consequences of this big sort are likely to be far more destructive and long-lasting than the death of bipartisan soirees:

Sean F. Reardon, an author of the study and a sociologist at Stanford, argued that the shifts had far-reaching implications for the next generation. Children in mostly poor neighborhoods tend to have less access to high-quality schools, child care and preschool, as well as to support networks or educated and economically stable neighbors who might serve as role models.

The isolation of the prosperous, he said, means less interaction with people from other income groups and a greater risk to their support for policies and investments that benefit the broader public — like schools, parks and public transportation systems.

I can’t tell you how often it is that, when debating anti-poverty policies with conservatives, I’m struck by just how abstract are the poor in my interlocutors’ minds. I don’t mean to imply that I’m a modern Orwell, down and out in Appalachia and Camden; I’ve lived in a pretty economically homogenous sphere for most of my life. But what I try to do to combat that sameness is use imaginative empathy. It’s not complicated; we’re taught from a young age that it’s something we should always endeavor to do. But it’s easier said than done — especially if one’s only exposure to economic injustice in America is reruns of The Wire.

See No EvilPost + Comments (34)

Mitt Romney Is Lying About His Prior Financial Support For Outsourcing

by Elias Isquith|  July 21, 20123:47 pm| 31 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Election 2012, Media, Politics

At times it’s been lost in the billowing dust resulting from the Battle For Glenn Kessler’s Soul, but the entire conversation over whether or not Romney was Bain Capital CEO from 1999-2002 is only important insofar as it relates to outsourcing. Romney’s tried to argue that since he wasn’t CEO of Bain Capital when the private equity firm did most of its investments in outsourcing, he shouldn’t be held responsible. As most of us have since been convinced, this is bullshit — twice over. But the focus has been largely on the first claim (that he wasn’t CEO) rather than the second (that he did not finance outsourcing operations).

Well, here comes Mother Jones‘ David Corn and Nick Baumann to inform us that — surprise, surprise — Romney most certainly did put his money behind outsourcing:

In March 1999, shortly after Romney left Bain to take over the troubled Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Brookside Capital Investors Inc., a Bain-related entity wholly owned by Romney, filed a report with the Securities and Exchange Commission that listed dozens of companies in which Brookside held a stake the previous quarter. The roster included investments in Singapore-based Flextronics International ($13 million) and Florida-headquartered Jabil Circuit Inc. ($41 million), two companies that were leaders in the fast-growing field of outsourcing electronics manufacturing and offshoring production to low-wage countries. Together, these two investments represented almost 10 percent of Brookside’s $559 million portfolio.

And remember how much outrage Republicans expressed over the Obama campaign’s describing Romney as an outsourcing “pioneer?” I suppose a motivated fact-checker could find ’cause, still, to find that claim outrageous after reading the following. But I doubt most the rest of us will:

Michael Marks, the American chairman and CEO of Flextronics at the time, was an outsourcing trailblazer and booster. “It is increasingly clear that outsourcing of electronics manufacturing is gaining momentum and acceptance in the world,” he declared in early 1999, noting that electronics firms “continue to divest [manufacturing] facilities.” Though Flextronics had operations in the United States, one of its key manufacturing facilities was in China—where it operated a 450,000-square-foot industrial hub.

A 1998 Flextronics prospectus reported: “We plan to significantly expand our industrial parks in China, Hungary and Mexico, and we recently purchased an 88-acre site in Sao Paulo, Brazil, where we plan to establish a new industrial park.” It also noted, “[O]ur growth is driven by the accelerating pace at which leading [electronics companies] are adopting outsourcing as a core business strategy.” Its key clients, it stated, were 3Com, Cisco, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, and Philips.

In a profile in Chief Executive magazine, Marks dismissed concern about shipping US jobs overseas. “Outsourcing is good for America,” he insisted. The magazine crowned him the king of electronics outsourcing: “Marks, more than anyone else, is responsible for the outsourcing trend in the tech industry.” And Romney had provided him capital for his efforts.

Yes, Flextronics had other backers; Romney wasn’t the sole reason this “outsourcing trailblazer and booster” enjoyed such great success. But for the GOP to argue that Mitt had nothing to do with the boom in outsourcing over the past 15 years is now, inarguably, absurd.

Mitt Romney Is Lying About His Prior Financial Support For OutsourcingPost + Comments (31)

Our Grand Old Problem

by Elias Isquith|  July 19, 201211:15 am| 89 Comments

This post is in: Election 2012, Glibertarianism, Politics, Tax Policy, Decline and Fall, Good News For Conservatives, Our Failed Political Establishment

Point of Obama’s “you didn’t build it” is to reverse the presumption that your $ is your property. It has no limiting principle.

— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) July 18, 2012

This is not a misunderstanding; if you convince people that success has little to do w/work & merit, you justify more burdens on successful.

— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) July 18, 2012

This debate is fundamental & philosophical, & pervades policy debates on taxes, healthcare, etc. It is hugely important to have.

— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) July 18, 2012

Any time a Republican can argue philosophical first principles & connect it to policy, it’s a win. Why Democrats fear this argument so much.

— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) July 18, 2012

The GOP vision is one of greater individualism, an ideal party must uphold. Obama has moved Dems towards more collectivism & must defend it.

— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) July 18, 2012

Harder part – but one GOP must embrace – is accepting not only private success, but private failure. Long term, bailouts worse than layoffs.

— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) July 18, 2012

Dan McLaughlin, an editor at RedState who I’d never known of before Twitter, had some thoughts about the deeper meaning behind the President’s “you didn’t build that” comments. (If you’re not familiar with this kerfuffle, here’s a basic recap. Short version: Obama’s being taken out of context.) As you can see above, McLaughlin feels that what Democrats and others are dismissing as a throwaway line, a rare verbal flub from a talented politician, was actually a window into Obama’s political soul. McLaughlin seems to believe this peek behind the veil will compel Republicans to fearlessly defend the inviolability of property rights. This, of course, will inexorably lead the GOP to victory in November.

I don’t think I’d be unreasonable in saying there’s an “If Obama just used the bully pulpit, we’d have single-payer by now” quality, reappropriated for the Right, to the RedState editor’s logic. The difference: Rather than that of a vocal minority, McLaughlin is voicing a widely held belief among GOP partisans.

The worldview of McLaughlin et al reminds me of a Steve M. post from last week. Steve brings up the inconvenient truth — as important as it is, and as large as it looms, this year’s election will not bring resolution to the country’s cold civil war. The stasis and dysfunction of Washington will endure. And that’s in the best-case scenario; we’ll imagine the President is reelected. At the time Steve wrote the post, Romney was in the midst of flailing about like a muppet, searching for an answer to Obama’s loaded questions on tax returns and Bain Capital. Regarding Romney’s odder character traits, what they do and don’t tell us about today’s Republicans, Steve writes:

[B]eing bizarre is, at this point, a requirement for making it to the top tier in the GOP. You have to have the same extreme economic views as the Koch brothers — and you have to have at least some obsessive fixation on supposed Antichrists (people who have premarital sex in Santorum’s case, evil liberals who oppose child labor in Gingrich’s). It’s the Republican Party, stupid. That’s the problem.

So Romney may lose — and the takeaway will be that he was a lousy presidential candidate, an unappealing guy with an unappealing life story. But the GOP is now built to elevate people like that. The Republican rank-and-file loves what the rest of us hate. It’s more than a Romney problem — it’s a Republican problem.

And do we have an answer? Electorally, the short-term answer is a “Sadly, no.” Few are predicting the House will switch hands for the third time in four elections. For at least two years’ times more, you’ll pry that big goofy gavel from John Boehner’s cold, dead, orange fingers. And don’t look to the Senate for any daylight, even if we grant that, this time, Harry Reid’s got the filibuster in his crosshairs. The House Republicans have shown how disruptive they can be wielding half of one-third of the government; reeling from the defeat of the squishy, secretly moderate, Republican In Name Only-y loser — Mitt Romney — the Tea Party caucus is unlikely to decide that working with rather than completely, tirelessly, and unapologetically against the President is the solution.

For Democrats, this year’s election is about holding ground. It may not yet feel like it, but for the creaky and moribund US government, the past three-and-a-half years have been characterized by significant changes. Liberalism is in part aspirational; it’s about rejecting the proposition that government is not, and cannot be, a legitimate manifestation of a free people’s will. Near-axiomatically, many liberals are going to be forever dissatisfied with the pace of change. But every cause has its effect, and in most countries the effect is counterrevolution. We risk affirming their most messianic beliefs in saying so, but what happened in 2010 was, in the American system, what a counterrevolution looks like. And since January 20 of 2011, Congressional Republicans have by-and-large acted like they knew it.

He didn’t at first, but the President gets it now, too. I think he understands what he’s fighting for in 2012, prosaic in comparison to 2008 as it may be. Maybe he’ll follow in the footsteps of many a President before him and focus in his second term on finding a political resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hell, if he gets that done he should be able to raise the debt ceiling.

(cross-posted)

[Update: I’ve cleaned up some typos. Believe you me, that’s the last time I outsource my typing to Yglesias.]

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