I wanted to gather up everything I’ve been tracking on the politics of the current situation in one post:
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Polls
- Polls are still all over the place but we’re seeing some movement in the direction shown above (among Democrats). The same poll showed a 60/40 split among Republicans, with the 60% group wanting Republicans in Congress to support Trump when they agree, pushback when they don’t agree.
- Another poll showed that there was a lessening of support for Trump for the under-30s age group.
- That said, I think the polls are showing, in general, that people are still catching with the coup and the freezing of funds for critical programs will continue to make a mark. Also, courts ruling against the Trump administration, consistently and often, is negative, no matter what those of us who are more politically engaged think about whether there will be consequences.
- Inflation, as Betty posted about earlier this morning, hasn’t magically gone down, and $8/dozen eggs are just one example. Even if Trumpers fuck with inflation figures, as we saw with the Biden Administration, people make their own judgment about prices independent of the graphs.
Musk
- As Betty posted below about the DOGE hearing, Democrats are eager and able to hammer Musk. Betty’s Casar clip is brutal, and Jasmine Crockett, Robert Garcia and Melanie Stansbury also got some licks in. (Follow that Garcia link for a real banger.)
- He is an unfuckable, weird, unelected incel. There is nothing about the guy that is politically attractive, and he wants to steal your grandma’s money. He’s a great target for Democrats and an anchor around the neck of Republicans. There are going to be protests at Tesla dealerships across the nation. Good.
Congress
- Republicans – This bunch of cowards are still trying to keep their mouths shut in public, but when they write to their constituents, they are singing a different tune. Betty mentioned this TPM piece below (another gift link from me), which includes a link to this Bulwark piece with some letters that aren’t just “don’t listen to the leftwing media”. Greg Sargent covered this with Elizabeth Saunders in his podcast this morning.
- Democrats – In general, I think they’re waking up. Axios posted a piece yesterday saying that Democrats are “pissed” that they’re getting so much pushback and phone calls. One of the reps quoted was Don Beyer. His Deputy Chief of Staff is on Bluesky and he said (and I believe him) that Beyer’s quote was truncated — Beyer welcomes calls, but also says to please call Republicans. I think all the following are true: some Democrats are pissed about getting so many calls, a lot of them welcome those calls, and a lot of people are calling Democrats instead of Republicans. There is zero point in calling a Democrat who doesn’t represent you. And calling Republicans can work. Another positive sign is Hakeem Jeffries appointing a Rapid Response Task Force that has some Democrats who aren’t afraid to fight. If I were a Dem who hadn’t been loudly opposing Trump, and I saw those “confidence” numbers in the graphic above, I’d be worried, because the base is more angry than I’ve ever seen them. Unfortunately, there’s still a lot of things happening in the Senate under unanimous consent.
Tariffs
- Trump, who a few days ago backtracked on across-the-board 25% tariffs, has now said he’ll impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum in March, further enraging our North American trading partners. He did that in his first term, and at least Mexico retaliated with targeted tariffs on, among other things, bourbon. They were in effect for a useless year and did nothing to revive the US steel industry.
- Canada – I spent some time on r/onguardforthee, a subreddit of Candians with a liberal bent. Canadians are pissed, and these new tariffs are just throwing gas on a fire. A new poll shows that the Liberals are projected to win a in majority Quebec if Mark Carney is their leader, a big change from earlier polling. The key point is that any Canadian who was Trump-curious is getting hammered, and the Tories can’t run away from their prior infatuation with Trump. Conservative Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who got a lot of press when he said he’d remove US liquor from LCBO shelves, and “rip up” a Starlink contract, has backtracked on both those promises, and even the generally Conservative-leaning Globe & Mail is on his ass about that. Canadian-US tourism (a $20 billion + industry) is going to take a big hit, because Candians are serious about boycotting the US, no matter what their political leanings. The Peace Bridge, a Canada/US crossing at Buffalo, was empty on the Canadian side the other night. I’ve never seen that. If you want to get a feel for just how pissed Canadians are, this interview with Member of Parliament Charlie Angus covers the bases.
- Mexicans are more used to being treated like shit by the US than Canada, but they think the tariffs are more than ridiculous because Mexico is a net importer of steel and aluminum from the US. Claudia Sheinbaum is sticking to her strategy of calmly saying that Mexico will negotiate with the US and work things out. Her Instagram, which in my view is a model of how a politician should use social media, has some not-so-subtle imagery. This weekend, she participated in the “loyalty march”, a tradition that AMLO re-started, which commemorates a time when cadets marched with the Mexican President from the Military Academy to the National Palace to thwart a putsch. Nothing subtle about this picture:
Overall, my take is that we’re still in trouble, but the pushback has begun.