In the last thread on the subject of House races, some commenters were ready to dismiss Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook as conservative concern trolls. Though most of their punditry is useless, these guys make their living predicting House and Senate races, and I think they’re reasonably good at that job. Let’s take a look at some of their ratings for tight races in my state, New York:
NY-29 – Leans Republican. This is Massa’s seat. Cook and Rothenberg are being charitable here. Massa won this seat on the second try, having run two excellent campaigns. After his meltdown, this R+5 district is pretty close to a lock for Republicans, especially considering that the Democrat who finally stepped up to be sacrificed is a first-time no-name who starts his campaign with zip in the bank.
NY-24 – Toss-Up. Michael Arcuri is in his second term. The challenger who lost the 2008 race by 4 points, a wealthy, moderate Republican businessman, is back for a rematch. He outraised Arcuri this quarter. Arcuri stupidly voted against HCR last month after voting for it the first time. It’s a R+2 district, which was long represented by moderate Republican Sherry Boehlert before Arcuri won the open seat in 2006.
NY-23 – Lean Democratic (Cook)/Democrat Favored (Rothenberg) This is the district where Bill Owens beat teabagger Doug Hoffman in a special election where Republican Dede Scozzafava siphoned off just enough votes for Owens to prevail. Owens and Hoffman are probably going head-to-head this cycle. Hoffman is a wackaloon, but Owens is the first Democrat to represent this R+1 district since the Civil War. This one is a “lean Democrat” because Hoffman can’t raise money: he brought in a little over $13K last quarter, versus a quarter million from Owens. This is a lesson to those who think money doesn’t matter: C.R.E.A.M., motherfuckers.
Those are probably the three tightest races in New York. Both Cook and Rothenberg are being fair to Democrats in two races, and in the case of NY-29 (where I live), they’re overly generous. Unless New York is a anomaly, their recent ratings merit serious attention.