Randinho

Do you want to know what the definition of true love is? Someone who believes that Italy will repeat as World Cup Champions this year. Notwithstanding the skills of goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon, why coach Marcello Lippi, who exhibited such skillful tactics in the last World Cup, including putting three attackers in during extra time in the semi-final against Germany, would feel so determined to include Fabio Cannavaro, Mauro Camaronesi, and Gianluca Zambrotta on his squad, especially given the dreadful year their club, Juventus had is beyond me. They finished 7th barely qualifying for the third qualifying round of the Europa League.

So who will he put in central defense? Cannavaro probably paired with his teammate, Giorgio Chiellini, with  Gianluca Zambrotta and Salvatore Bocchetti in the fullback roles. If I were an Azzurri fan, I would want him to pair Chiellini with Domenico Criscito, but I really don’t who he would pair with Bocchetti instead of Zambrotta.

While I wouldn’t question Gennaro (the Snarling Hound) Gattuso’s determination, drive and heart, as a midfield stopper, he’s not a kid any more. Daniele de Rossi may very well bear much of the heavy weight in central defense.  So with questions about Mauro Camaronesi’s fitness and playmaker Andrea Pirlo likely to miss much of the first round, I’m at somewhat of a loss as to who will be leading the midfield offense. Claudio Marchisio with Camaronesi assuming he’s fit?

For the record, I really don’t understand why Giuseppe Rossi was dropped, especially given the paucity of goals scored by some of the others who were kept, e.g., Simone Pepe, (who has scored no goals with 13 caps vs. Rossi’s three goals with 14 caps) and Vincenzo Iaquinta (35 caps and 5 goals).  I agree with his decisions to leave off Francesco Totti and Luca Toni, but he should have found a place for Rossi. In the attack he should slot Alberto Gilardino in along with Antonio DiNatale, Serie A’s top scorer at 32 for a team (Udinese) that finished barely above the relegation zone.

Paraguay is in my opinion, an underrated team from South America. They have a good keeper in Justo Villar, who has the misfortune of playing on a weak club team (Valladolid in Spain) and who is eager to redeem himself after leaving the 2006 World Cup with an injury seven minutes into his first game. I like Julio Caceres as one of the center backs (notwithstanding the fact that he plays for the loathsome Atletico Mineiro :-) and Paulo da Silva as the other. I’m not sure who will be the full backs, but I’m going to bet on Dario Veron and Claudio Morel. The underrated Victor Caceres should anchor the defensive midfield with Nestor Ortigoza and Enrique Vera and Cristian Riveros supplying the midfield attacking component.

Here’s where it gets a little tricky. Will coach Gerardo Martino go for the popular, talented, but oft-injured Roque Santa Cruz, or will he use the newly naturalized Lucas Barrios along with OScar Cardozo? He’s also got decent options on the bench with Edgar Benitez and the fleet Rodolfo Gamarra.

I am not as familiar as I’d like to be with Slovakia. Jan Mucha is their number one goalkeeper and is due to become Tim Howard’s backup at Everton. Their center backs are probably their best players,  Martin Skrtel and Jan Durica, along with attacking midfielders, Marek Hamsik and Miroslav Stoch. I don’t know who will feature as forwards, but I would pick Filip Holosko and Stanislav Sestak.

I mean no disrespect to any of the Kiwi fans, but there are two primary reasons why New Zealand is in the World Cup and the first is that Australia moved to the Asian Confederation, the second being that they beat Bahrain by an aggregate score of 1-0 in two games. Notwithstanding, their recent 1-0 victory over Serbia, I believe that they will be more grateful for the experience than anything else.

So here’s where I go out on a limb; an exceptionally long limb. I’m going to pick Slovakia and Paraguay to go through. I think Italy may be undone by Paraguay’s speed in their opening game.

Here are my comments on Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D and Group E.

Cross-posted at Beautiful Horizons

Group F: Italy, New Zealand, Paraguay, SlovakiaPost + Comments (55)

This group should be easy, at least on paper. The Netherlands were the first team to qualify for the World Cup from Europe, are formidable in defense, strong in the midfield and have some better than decent options on the attack.

Tactically, the defense should consist of John Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen as the center backs with the seemingly ageless Giovanni van Bronckhorst in what should be his international swan song at left back and Gregory van der Wiel on the right. Edwin van der Saar who still could have probably done a fine job as keeper, has retired and I’m not as familiar with his replacement, Maarten Stekelenburg, but I hear good things about him. Van der Saar is clearly going to be a hard act to follow. The midfield defense will be borne by Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong, the latter best remembered for a nasty foul on the USA’s Stuart Holden in an apparently in-name-only friendly that fractured his fibula.

The key to Holland’s attack will be the skills of their marvelous playmaker, Wesley Sneijder, with support from wingers Arjen Robben and Eljero Elia. Robin van Persie rounds out the attack as an excellent target. In addition, the Dutch are terrific on set pieces with Robben, Sneijder and van Persie all excellent with free kicks.

Denmark is not quite the Denmark of the recent past, but should still have enough talent to get through. Thomas Sorensen is a fine keeper and has proven himself a worthy successor to Peter Schmiechel. The only defenders I have any familiarity with, however, are Daniel Agger, who has come up short in terms of playing time for Liverpool and Simon Kjaer, who could be a breakout defender for this WC. Kjaer is very fast for a defender and an excellent target on set pieces.

When I think of Danish midfielders of the recent past, the one who comes to mind immediately is Stig Tofting, a man who was a vigorous defender, but carried a lot of baggage of the disciplinary kind, once spending four months in jail for head-butting a bar owner. I’ve seen Christian Pulsen play with Seville and Juventus and he strikes me as Stig Tofting without the baggage. On the offensive midfield side, look for the still speedy Dennis Rommedahl, Jesper Gronkjaer and possibly Jakob Poulsen, especially if he’s healthy.

If they have two forwards, I’m not sure who they will pair with Nicklas Bendtner, the reigning Danish player of the year. Bendtner is a very physical sort of attacker, excellent in the air and would probably score many more goals if he was a better finisher. Jon Dahl Tomasson may be brought in for his experience to complement Bendtner’s youth.

Cameroon was the breakthrough team from Africa at the 1990 World Cup. The seemingly ageless Roger Milla scored four goals in that competition when he was 38 – and scored another goal four years later making him the oldest scorer in World Cup  history. Recent appearances in the World Cup, however, have seen them manage only one win, beating Saudi Arabia, a team that gave up 12 goals and scored none, 1-0.

The players I am most familiar with are Carlos Kameni, their number one keeper for the past several years and who, in his club role at Espanyol managed to shut out Barcelona last season, Geremi, a very well-traveled defender currently playing in Turkey, Alex Song, a defensive midfielder who plays for Arsenal, Stephane Mbia a fine defensive midfielder for Marseille, and of course, Samuel Et0’o, the marvelous, speedy striker. I’m going to imagine they pair him with Pierre Webo who plays for Mallorca. I can get excited about African teams as I have in the past once play starts: Cameroon in 1990, Nigeria in 1994 and 1998 and Senegal in 2002. I can’t get excited about Cameroon this time.

Japan’s players play largely in Japan’s J-League and I don’t see much of them. I have seen them in friendlies recently, including one game in which they lost to England 2-1, but have the distinction of scoring all three goals. I really can’t see them winning a game against any of their opponents.

Here are my comments on Group A, Group B, Group C and Group D.

Cross-posted at Beautiful Horizons.

Group E: Cameroon, Denmark, Japan, NetherlandsPost + Comments (17)

Notwithstanding Michael Ballack’s absence from this World Cup, I still believe Germany is the team to beat in this group. Some of the more prominent names from Germany’s recent past like Oliver Neuville, Torsten Frings and Jens Lehman are absent from this squad (Neuville has retired from football) and the only field players born before 1981 are a defender, Arne Friedrich and a forward, Miroslav Klose.

In goal, I believe that Manuel Neuer may be the starter, although I have a personal preference for Tim Wiese. Wiese is effective against penalties. On defense, Germany is solid with Arne Friedrich, Jerome Boateng (the brother of the man whose foul knocked Ballack out of the cup), Serdar Tasci  and Per Mertesacker as central defenders, with possibly Dennis Aogo or Arne Friedrich moving over to right back and Philipp Lahm, who likes to go forward on the attack on the left.

The midfield is equally impressive with familiar names like Bastian Schweinsteiger and Thomas Hitzlsperger, but look for Mesut Ozil to be a breakout player and Sami Khedira , Ballack’s replacement and Marko Marin to be important factors for the Germans as well.

In the attack, Germany is impressive by their sheer size, with all of them near or over six feet tall. I see a pairing of Lukas Podolski, possibly with Stefan Kiessling, but more likely with Mario Gomez. Newly naturalized Brazilian-born Cacau will provide good pace off the bench and Miroslav Klose will also probably not start, but is likely to be called upon, especially to spell the starters if the Germans are comfortably ahead.

Australia has an impressive keeper in Mark Schwarzer, some good defensive options in Lucas Neill, Scott Chipperfield, David Carney and a fairly decent midfield in Mark Bresciano, Tim Cahill, Vince Grella and Rich Garcia. What they don’t have is a really good forward attacker like Mark Viduka in the last World Cup. Harry Kewell is struggling to get fit before the start, but the worst thing for the Socceroos is that they will face Germany first. If they fail to get a point in that game, I believe that the winner of the Serbia v Ghana match, assuming there is a winner, will have a significant edge, especially if it’s Ghana.

Serbia did well in qualification, with a an excellent goal differential (+14) , that speaks to their defense. The likely keeper will be Vladimir Stojkovic, a well traveled, but effective stopper. Their back line features Nemanja Vidic, a strong and effective defender for Manchester United and Branislav Ivanovic, who plays for Chelsea, but can be a bit slow. The midfield anchors are Milan Jovanovic on the offense and Dejan Stankovic on defense. Milos Krasic will likely have a role as a playmaker, but that’s where I think that they have the same problem as Australia. Marko Pantelic has skills, but scored one goal in nine games during qualification (Jovanovic led with five goals) and Nikola Zigic is the tallest professional footballer in the world at 6’8″, making him Serbia’s answer to Peter Crouch. That’s not a compliment, by the way.

Ghana, even without Michael Essien are still impressive. Bear in mind that they won the Under 20 World Cup last year and have a number of players who play in Europe. John Paintsil, Hans Sarpei, Isaac Vorsah and John Mensah along with keeper Richard Kingson should anchor the defense. The Boateng brothers (Kevin-Prince and Derek) along with Stephen Appiah and Sully Muntari bring up the midfield, with Asamoah Gyan, Matthew Amoah and possibly Under 20 WC star, Dominic Adiayah forming an impressive front line.

I believe that Ghana and Germany go through with Germany winning the group.

Cross-posted at Beautiful Horizons.

Here are my comments on Group A, Group B and Group C.

Group D: Australia, Germany, Ghana, SerbiaPost + Comments (29)

The real question here is what team will accompany Argentina from this group into the second round. This is, on balance, a weak group for a formidable team such as Argentina. If Maradona chooses to run with two strikers, he has plenty of options: paring Leo Messi with Gonzalo Higuain or Carlos Tevez with Diego Milito you have a tall and a small, wiry attacker. Messi gets a lot of heat for not performing as well for country as he does for club, so this will be a good opportunity for him to silence the critics.

Where I think Maradona deserves some criticism in his tendency to what I believe is play favorites. He may be a fan of Juan Sebastian Veron, but he’s thirty-five years old and that may be come back to haunt him against the likes of some of the speedier attackers like the ones you’ll find on South Korea’s team. Notwithstanding the terrific year that Walter Samuel has had at Inter Milan, both he and Gabriel Heinze another likely center back are both 32. If he’s smart, he’ll put Nicolas Otamendi or Martin DeMichelis to pair with either Heinze or Samuel (if it were up to me, it would be Samuel).

Can anyone explain what Maradona has against Esteban Cambiasso? He may be the best holding midfielder in Italy’s Serie A, but Maradona has called him up once for a friendly against Spain and left him off the roster for South Africa. Maradona has six forwards including Martin Palermo at 37 selected for the team. In the later rounds he may regret not having Cambiasso.

As for the rest of the pack, here are my thoughts. Greece’s best asset may be their coach, Otto Rehhagel. This is the same coach who took them from nowhere to the Euro 2004 Championship. He also led my beloved Kaiserlautern Red Devils to win the Bundesliga 2nd Division title, and the first year of promotion, to win the Bundesliga First Division Title. This is unprecedented to my knowledge in any major football league. Unfortunately, he can’t play and the actual team can play a bit on the uninspired side. They’re solid in defense, but a bit stolid on attack. Still Rehhagel, may be able to pull a few tricks out of his sleeve.

Nigeria has some talent, without question and while I like Obafemi Martins and John Obi Mikel, the fact that Kanu is on the team means that this is not the Nigeria of Sunday Oliseh or Jay-Jay Okocha. While they finished a respectable, but apparently unsatisfactory third in the Africa Cup of Nations, they fired the coach, Shaibu Amodu and hired long time Sweden coach, Lars Lagerback for his first assignment outside of Sweden. Changing coaches this close to the World Cup does not strike me as a formula for success.

South Korea has an impressive attack, especially led by Park Ji-Sung, whose speed and skill on the ball is a thing of beauty. Although I believe that Ahn Jung-Hwan is their for inspiration and to encourage T-shirt and poster sales, I don’t think that can be sold short. The South Koreans are a strongly unified team and given the troubles Nigeria is facing, that may give them an edge.

Where I believe South Korea is weak is in the back. I just don’t see much inspiring play there.

So who else in the group will go through? I believe that Argentina will probably get maximum points in this group. The key match in my opinion will be the one between South Korea and Greece. If a team wins that match, I believe that they’ll go through. If they tie, I’m truly stumped. That may favor Greece as they will face Argentina at the end of group play. On the other hand, if Nigeria has lost to Argentina and has not gained maximum points against Greece, that may strengthen South Korea, especially if they control their destiny and Nigeria is already out.

Cross Posted at Beautiful Horizons

Group B: Argentina, Greece, Nigeria and South KoreaPost + Comments (34)

I had hoped to post my thoughts on Group B, but I’m a little pressed for time today. As the original post on Group A has moved below the fold, I did want to call your attention to a couple of facts regarding some of the Group A teams; one of which I forgot to point out yesterday and one of which came up today.

I’m certainly not trying to pick on South Africa’s team, indeed I would be happier to see them go through than any of the other teams, but I failed to mention this yesterday: South Africa is the only country from Africa in the World Cup that did not qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations this year.

The other news is that there has been a major blow-up in the Mexico camp: Jonathan dos Santos, the brother of Giovanni dos Santos has been dropped from the team. Giovanni dos Santos is now threatening to quit the team. If the discussion here is accurate, apparently it was handled very shabbily. That can’t be good for team unity.

Tomorrow: Group B

A Couple of Updates About Group APost + Comments (26)

France’s coach, Raymond Domenech must have thought that the gods were smiling on him when France emerged in Group A facing the following opponents: Mexico, South Africa and Uruguay. While none of these nations are pushovers, it could have been much worse for Domenech, chiefly if the draw had left them with another tough European opponent in the group with them. There was certainly no karmic smackdown for Thierry Henry’s notorious handball that led to the goal that sent Ireland to the couch for June and France to South Africa. Here’s a view of their roster before the final cut to 23 due tomorrow.

Domenech’s most surprising decision in my opinion has been in his selection of attackers. While Thierry Henry will likely be used only as a substitute, the inclusion of Djibril Cisse, who has never impressed me, instead of Karim Benzema has me puzzled. Cisse is inconsistent, to be polite, with one more international goal than Benzema with eleven more appearances. Odds are that Nicholas Anelka will be bearing the brunt of the attack along with midfielder Franck Ribery. Indeed, it’s the midfield and defense where France excel, notwithstanding the age of some of their players (yes I’m talking about you, William Gallas).

The host country is a bit of a puzzle to me with the exception of a few players and their coach, the Brazilian, Carlos Alberto Parreira. The only players I have seen play with any frequency are Aaron Mokoena, a fine defender who plays in England, Benni McCarthy, a journeyman forward who has played in Holland, Spain and currently in England and Steven Pienaar, who is a solid attacking midfielder for Everton in England. Parreira led Brazil to the World Cup Championship in 1994 and coached them in 2006. He has also coached Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the World Cup. Here’s a view of their preliminary roster, most of whom play their club football in South Africa.

Uruguay has a potent strike force in Diego Forlan who won the goal scoring title in the Spanish League for the 2008-09 season for his current team Atlético Madrid after having won it with Villarreal in the 2004-05 season. He also scored both goals in this year’s first Europa League final win against Fulham. His likely strike partner is Luis Suarez who is as versatile as Forlan is formidable, with ability to come from the wings and the middle to score or feed to Forlan.

Where Uruguay is weak, in my opinion is on defense. Goalkeeping is shaky and, with the exception of Walter Gargano, one of the best holding midfielders around, the rest of their defense is adequate, but does not thrill me and may be vulnerable on the counterattack with a skilled team attacking their goal, especially if the weak goalkeeping surrenders an early goal. Here’s their preliminary roster

Mexico may be the sort of team that gives Uruguay and France trouble. They have excellent speed in the attack with Carlos Vela and Javier Hernandez forming a solid strike pair with midfield support from Andres Guardado and Giovanni dos Santos making for arguably the best attack in this group. Defensively it depends on the health and mental stability of Rafa Marquez a gifted center-back whose role at FC Barcelona has been diminished in recent months and whether the young Hector Moreno will pick up the slack. In addition, it’s absolutely essential for goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa to be solid against the likes of Franck Ribery, Nicholas Anelka, Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez. Here’s Mexico’s preliminary roster.

My picks to go through to the next round from this group: France and Mexico. Experience will win out and as much as I will pull for South Africa, I just don’t see it happening for them. Uruguay is just too weak in goal.

Cross-posted at Beautiful Horizons.

Next up (hopefully tomorrow): Group B Argentina, Greece, Nigeria and South Korea.

A Look At Group APost + Comments (37)