Sit down to write post on election polling. Read comments in Tuesday Morning Open Thread. Say fuck it – let the punters field this one. Cut, paste. Wander off to search out another drink.
dm says:
August 9, 2016 at 7:39 amI see these polls and I think: Bradley Effect Bradley Effect Bradley Effect. Who wants to admit to a pollster that they’re voting for an idiot? So… expect Trump to do better at the ballot box than he does in polls.
one_particular_harbour, fka Botsplainer says:
August 9, 2016 at 7:46 am
@dm:My prediction all along has been that Hill is actually underpolling, that conservative women aged 50+ will go ahead and vote for her in the privacy of the voting booth. They’re polling differently because they’re worried about people overhearing, return calls, direct mail, etc.
Trump reminds them too much of their husbands.
It’s gonna play hell with exit polls, while leading to squealing accusations of rampant fraud.
Expect big surprises, maybe even in the plains.
Amir Khalid says:
August 9, 2016 at 8:02 amMy own suspicion about the polling is that I don’t know if the Trump campaign is capable of performing to its candidate’s polling. He might poll at x% in such-and-such state, and fall short of that number on election day because he didn’t have the organisation to get the vote out for him.
Shalimar says:
August 9, 2016 at 8:28 am@Amir Khalid: I am not sure a major American party has ever had a candidate who thought his supporters would all go to the polls on their own because he was so awesome. If great organization was really a big difference between Obama and Romney/McCain, then it should mean Trump gets at least 5% below his projections. And his projections are beginning to look really horrible.
Have at it.
ETA: The discussion in the comment thread is wonderful. I love you all. rikyrah wins though.
rikyrah says:
August 9, 2016 at 10:08 am (Edit)
GET.OUT.THE.VOTE.
Pound these muthaphuckas INTO THE GROUND!!!!
I don’t have to tell you fucking anything …Post + Comments (164)