Tom in Texas

There are 3 areas where I think Barack Obama would be a centrist in governance; areas that while working towards a Democratic nomination he hasn’t been able to explain his actual position on, for fear of driving away primary voters.

1) NAFTA. The infamous memo making the rounds today doesn’t really clarify much to my mind. What is telling is his campaign’s inability to be unequivocal on his NAFTA policy and his refusal to denounce/reject NAFTA outright. His rhetoric thus far is centered around NAFTA’s flaws on inception (and Hillary’s share of responsibility) and the need to take care of workers who lost their jobs. Far from pulling out of it altogether, I think Obama will enhance his Patriot Employment Act ideas in the general and try to get companies to invest in cities like Flint, as well as insuring that companies who build overseas maintain minimum standards for the nation they are in.*

2) Social Security. Far from merely evoking Republican fear points on the subject, I think Obama’s plan to enact Social Security’s solvency through raising the cap is inferior to what I suspect Clinton’s eventual investment style SS plan would provide. I like the idea of stimulating the stock market right now, and I do think the return would be significantly larger.

3) Iraq. His current rhetoric of $9 billion a month being spent in Iraq that could be diverted elsewhere will ring hollow if or when he outlines his future plans for the country. To leave, I think a Marshall Plan style system of wise investment in the nation itself (rather than outside contractors) has to be enacted, and I don’t see the amount of military support needed (or the amount of money required) falling any time soon.

I also think Hillary’s policies in each area would be virtually identical. Bill Clinton proposed investing some of the Social Security trust in 1999, for example. Her possibly fatal flaw was running the primary as if it was the general. By focusing only on swing states, she let Obama’s far superior ground game crush her in dozens of states. By focusing towards the middle on the war and NAFTA, she let Obama hammer her from the left.

* as an aside, I think insuring that NAFTA raises the standard of living for citizens in their own nation is the single largest (and essentially only effective) solution to our immigration issues. Make a Mexican citizen’s life better on their own soil and they won’t seek a better life here.

Tic Tac ToePost + Comments (90)

Obama spoke to a crowd of around 2,000 people in Beaumont yesterday. What I found interesting is not the fact that he was the first candidate to personally visit in over 30 years, but rather the tone of his speech. Speaking to mostly an African American crowd, (and a religious one at that), Obama didn’t fill his speech simply with empty promise of a perfect future, but rather challenged his supporters to rethink their own values.

That takes courage, every bit as much as the Sista Souldjah moment of 16 years ago. East Texas is not particularly gay friendly, and the African Americans among them are no exception. This is also not the first time he has done so. Obama has shown he is willing to tell crowds what they need to hear, rather than pandering.

DISCLAIMER:

The first link is to a video of the speech, the text beside of which reads:

This is the almost complete “short” stump speech for the many folks who couldn’t attend the “sold out” (tichets were free) town hall meeting.

I haven’t had a chance to watch the 17 minute clip, and there is a chance the part of the speech referred to is edited out. I’ll let everyone know when I have a few minutes, but until then, I do not assume verification of the speech in the first link.

UPDATE:

I listened to the video, and the comments referred to are apparently edited out. Numerous campaign reporters refer to them, though, and the Martin Luther King day speech is further evidence that the point of my post stands.

CouragePost + Comments (215)

The 527’s come out to play.

The American Leadership Project has unveiled the first ad, aimed at the same blue collar Dems won over by Clinton’s last attempt. It’s not entirely an attack ad, save for the first sentence:

“If speeches could create jobs, we wouldn’t be facing a recession,”

Round 1Post + Comments (90)

I attended the Obama rally tonight at Houston’s 20,000 seat Toyota Center. On the news they said 16,600 attended, but several thousand with Standby tickets couldn’t get in — I know because my girlfriend was among them.

The scene from the Toyota Center’s southwest corner 2 hours before the doors opened:

Obama, moments into his speech:

The two and a half hours before Obama came out were filled by staffers exhorting the crowd to vote both in the primary and caucus, as well as an offer to have the campaign text reminders to anyone in the audience who signed up. There were three volunteers for the Houston campaign (all female) who led the crowd in chants of “Obama ’08,” “Yes We Can,” and “Fired Up, Ready To Go” in a back and forth style reminiscent of my “Texas Fight” days in college. A six year old girl lead the crowd in the Pledge of Allegiance (which Obama TOTALLY DIDN’T COME OUT FOR by the way) — It was a little weird because the flag was right over my head, and I didn’t like 40,000 eyes boring into my pasty face. Then I thought of the kindergartner on stage and my plight receded. I liked the “Yes We Can” Video leading up to Obama’s appearance, and was surprised myself at his early showing after confidently predicting we would see him around 9:30.

I was a little disappointed in the speech, to be honest, although the crowd was incredibly energized. I thought he seemed tired, and he stumbled a few times. He came across much better on the clips I’ve seen on TV. As to the crowd demographics, I’d estimate they were 75% African American, and about 20% white, though not just college kids by any stretch. The groups of black families I saw were absolutely inspiring. They stretched all possible boundaries — I saw four generations come in together dressed in their Sunday finest, infant in the great grandmother’s lap. I was surprised at how few Latinos I saw. I know Hillary is supposed to have a large lead in the demographic, but I saw only a few outside the stadium, and none from my seat in the arena. There were two separate Si Se Puede chants, however.

I think come March 4th Obama will take Houston based on a huge turnout in the African American community, and will probably take Austin comfortably. Dallas’ demographics favor Hillary a bit more. The suburbs will be a very interesting tell this year — they are largely conservative, and if they go for either Dem in anything approaching significant numbers it could make Texas an extremely interesting state to watch in the general.

Apologies for the poor quality on the second picture. I attempted to cut down the glare, but we were in the worst possible spot for pictures.

Obama From the Back RowPost + Comments (35)