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Major Major Major Major

You are here: Home / Archives for Major Major Major Major

Major Major Major Major, aka J. Tynan Burke, has written at Balloon Juice since 2018. He focuses on science, technology, and fiction. Learn more at www.tynanburke.com

Open Thread: A Smashing Success

by Major Major Major Major|  October 11, 20224:27 pm| 61 Comments

This post is in: Science & Technology, Space

The results are in, and NASA’s recent planetary defense proof-of-concept was a big success:

NASA smashed a spacecraft into an asteroid in an attempt to throw it off course. The mission succeeded beyond expectations, officials said. https://t.co/q8S33DdbW1

— NPR (@NPR) October 11, 2022

You may recall that the probe was crashed into one asteroid that orbits another asteroid. The goal was to shorten its orbital period, which is a very convenient visual measurement of imparted force. (In orbital mechanics, assuming classroom conditions, the time it takes to do a full orbit is a function of the satellite’s speed, and vice-versa, so we can determine the change in speed by the change in period, and from that extrapolate the effect of the impact.)

According to the NASA press release, they really smacked the crap out of that thing:

Prior to DART’s impact, it took Dimorphos 11 hours and 55 minutes to orbit its larger parent asteroid, Didymos. Since DART’s intentional collision with Dimorphos on Sept. 26, astronomers have been using telescopes on Earth to measure how much that time has changed. Now, the investigation team has confirmed the spacecraft’s impact altered Dimorphos’ orbit around Didymos by 32 minutes, shortening the 11 hour and 55-minute orbit to 11 hours and 23 minutes. This measurement has a margin of uncertainty of approximately plus or minus 2 minutes.

Before its encounter, NASA had defined a minimum successful orbit period change of Dimorphos as change of 73 seconds or more. This early data show DART surpassed this minimum benchmark by more than 25 times.

There are two reasons for this discrepancy. First, we only have an estimate for the asteroid’s mass. Second, and more importantly, the surface composition of the asteroid was unknown. If it had been a solid block of iron-nickel, and remained fully intact, the only force acting upon it would have been that of the probe’s impact. This was not the case–the collision released a considerable amount of ejecta, surface material that flew away from the impact site. Since every action has an equal and opposite reaction, this served to amplify the force of the impact. We’ll know more about how this worked in the experiment, and what that means for the future, as the scientists continue crunching the numbers. In the meantime, let’s hope that any troublemakers lurking out in the dark have received the message:

A Smashing Success

Afternoon open thread!

Open Thread: A Smashing SuccessPost + Comments (61)

Planetary Defense LIVE!

by Major Major Major Major|  September 26, 20226:06 pm| 87 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Science & Technology, Space

A planet-killer asteroid colliding with earth–we’ve all thought about it. Bruce Willis was in a movie about it. Some bumper stickers & commenters here regularly try to will it into happening. And now, at long last, we’re doing something to prepare for mitigating this existential risk.

You may have heard of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test, or DART, mission. It launched last November and is very straightforward: they’re going to crash a probe into an asteroid to see what happens. The asteroid in question is named Dimorphos; it is about 500 feet wide and orbits another asteroid named Didymos. Physics being fairly straightforward at this scale, Didymos’s orbit will change to be closer to Dimorphos. The question is, by how much? Knowing that can tell us how much wiggle room we have for detecting and swatting away an actual planet-killer. Such a rock is practically inevitable, and with any luck humanity will be around to see it, so it’s good that we’re getting started now. The mission isn’t cheap–$324 million–but measured against the value of the only world known so far to harbor life, that’s peanuts.

Existential risk is a funny thing. Right now “AI alignment”–preventing Skynet–is sucking up all the oxygen in the STEM imagination, despite the complete lack of evidence that it is a real problem, to say nothing of being an urgent one. Even so we probably spend between ten and fifty million dollars a year on it. Maybe this is fine–every dollar Peter Thiel spends on this is one less dollar he has to usher in the Dark Enlightenment–but I for one am glad we have a government that’s willing to shell out for things that actually matter.

Here’s space.com with some more background. You can watch live as our probe (hopefully) goes kablooey on NASA TV, with coverage starting at 6pm Eastern. The 14,000 mph collision is schedule for 7:14.

Open thread, also!

Planetary Defense LIVE!Post + Comments (87)

Very Late Open Thread

by Major Major Major Major|  September 24, 20221:24 am| 84 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I thought we could use a fresh one. Samwise says play nice. He’s watching!

Very Late Open Thread

I’m just hanging out doing some reading. I had an exhausting week. I had to go to the office four whole days! Poor me.

It was actually sort of funny, the team came to visit from (mostly) San Francisco, they were absolutely horrified that it was eighty degrees out. “And it stays hot so late!” Yes. That is how it usually works, especially in cities. I’ll admit that when you’ve just been in SF it can be disorienting to not carry a light sweater everywhere, but…

Very Late Open Thread 1

Open thread!

Very Late Open ThreadPost + Comments (84)

Andrew Yang’s Deep Thoughts

by Major Major Major Major|  August 19, 202212:26 am| 94 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Sentient David Brooks column Andrew Yang had some deep thoughts yesterday.

Policy? The Republican Party doesn’t have a platform and the Democrats have one they pretend about but don’t intend to actually implement. The Forward Party will bring people of diverse beliefs together to build common ground based on what people want and what works. You too.

— Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸 (@AndrewYang) August 17, 2022

The fact is whatever policy you want the odds are this system will not deliver. And when you wonder why not, they will just shrug and point at the other party and ask you for a donation. The system is sick and needs a genuine popular movement across groups to change.

— Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸 (@AndrewYang) August 17, 2022

At first my instinct was to point and laugh, but this thread has been bothering me more as time’s gone by. It’s such a perfect example of the faux-savvy grift style of politics. Both sides are bad, Democrats are sellout liars, we should follow the wisdom of crowds, the two-party system is a poisonous scam, etc. etc. But I’d like to focus on this part, where Yang gives the game away, right up top:

The Republican Party doesn’t have a platform

This is a lie. It is a lie that you tell when you do not want to talk about the Republican Party platform. Why doesn’t Andrew Yang want to talk about their platform of censorship, outlawing abortion and immigration, stigmatizing LGBT people, cutting social services, and raising taxes on the poor and middle class? And why lead with that? The obvious answer is, because he’s helming an operation that’s mostly just Republican ratfuckers, and saying anything bad about them would interfere with his fundraising and their plan to siphon votes away from Democrats.

“The Republican Party doesn’t have a platform.” I wonder if we’ll start seeing more of that in Savvy(tm) circles. It’s certainly got the right vibe: can’t you just see some smarmy politics-knower saying it on a montage of cable news shows? And it absolves Republicans of everything they do. They’re automatons operating on pure id; they don’t mean it; why don’t you quit whining, so we can talk about the real problem, Joe Biden.

None of this is really that noteworthy. I think his time in the spotlight might be nearing its end, anyway. But it’s all just so obvious. Is this what third-party grift has been reduced to? Fortunately nobody seems to be falling for it.

Open thread!

Andrew Yang’s Deep ThoughtsPost + Comments (94)

Lateish Nite Open Thread: HBD Samwise!

by Major Major Major Major|  August 8, 202211:34 pm| 72 Comments

This post is in: Cat Blogging, Pet Blogging

Guessing we could use something a little less warlike. Well have I got just the thing for you. Guess who’s eight today??

Late Nite Open Thread: HBD Samwise!

That’s right, everybody’s favorite gray goofball, Samwise! Here he is flaunting the new collar we got him. And don’t worry, he got plenty of actual cat treats too. Click to embiggen. Open thread! I’m just hanging out watching Reacher, how about you all?

Lateish Nite Open Thread: HBD Samwise!Post + Comments (72)

Late Night Open Thread: A “New Temperance Movement”?

by Major Major Major Major|  August 3, 202212:32 am| 87 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Have you noticed less alcohol in the world? I haven’t, I don’t think, but then again as a non-drinker maybe I wouldn’t. The main thing limiting my friends’ drinking seems to be that a well cocktail in a Hell’s Kitchen gay bar is like $15. If anything I remember reading that problem drinking had reached new heights in 2020 during the widespread pandemic closures. So last weekend’s WaPo Magazine article claiming that drinking is on the decline caught my eye: From Dry January to Fake Cocktails, Inside the New Temperance Movement.

It’s interesting, but I’m not sure it’s convincing, and I’m curious what you all may have observed. It paints a picture of a culture where alcohol is on the outs: major brands are making more alcohol-free drinks; lots of bars serve premium alcohol-free cocktails; being “Cali sober,” where one consumes cannabis instead of alcohol, is on the rise; trade groups are freaking out. But I looked into some of the actual figures quoted and they’re pretty misleading. It cites things as trends that pretty clearly aren’t, like the percent of Americans in this survey who drink. Is 60% “tied for the lowest level in two decades”? Sure. But, I mean, look at it:

Gallup poll showing consistent alcohol usage in recent decades

On the other hand, the trade groups freaking out are freaked out:

In February, Silicon Valley Bank released its State of the Wine Industry Report, as it has for the past 21 years. Usually, this is a rather businesslike document[…] This year, however, the report struck a tone of great alarm. The era of “neo-prohibition,” it warned, is upon us: “The anti-alcohol lobby continues to push an agenda … that starts by concluding that all alcohol consumption is bad and then backs into the research. The cumulative negative health message is eroding public faith in the science that proved moderate wine consumption was healthy[…] When will the wine industry show up to help promote well-researched, positive science on moderate consumption?”

Wow, dramatic! But… this seems to be more wine-specific?

I’d love to see drinking be less romanticized. It’s not great for you. It’s fairly addictive–not for most people, but for enough. But this article is pretty flimsy, even for a trend piece. What do you all think? And of course this is an open thread.

(As an aside, this detail had me cackling. I have my differences with AA but for crying out loud!)

Holly Whitaker published a more pointedly anti-alcohol book, “Quit Like a Woman,” in which drinking is portrayed as useless, toxic and anti-feminist. Whitaker went on to publish an opinion piece in the New York Times with a headline that dismissed Alcoholics Anonymous as “The Patriarchy” and then raised millions to create Tempest, an online alcohol-counseling service geared toward women that costs $59 per month.

Late Night Open Thread: A “New Temperance Movement”?Post + Comments (87)

“Nobody Trusts Anybody Now, and We’re All Very Tired”

by Major Major Major Major|  June 29, 202211:30 pm| 103 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, TV & Movies

Plenty of quotes from horror movies encapsulate the last two and a half years, but this might be the best one–nobody trusts anybody now, and we’re all very tired. It’s only fitting that it comes from one of the best horror movies ever made, John Carpenter’s 1982 masterpiece The Thing, which just turned forty.

To the uninitiated: The Thing is a remake of 1951’s The Thing From Another World, about a shapeshifting alien horror that terrorizes the crew of an antarctic research station. It is a moody creature feature full of gore and paranoia. If you’ve never seen it, you should! It will be in select theaters next week.

I picked up the 4K remaster on Blu-Ray last fall and made my friends watch it, and I’m pleased to report that it is as fantastic now as it was when I first saw it in high school. I was worried that the special effects would look a little goofy remastered, but even those hold up well. Perhaps I should have expected that: Rob Bottin’s practical effects are legendary in the film world, and he worked himself so hard on this movie that he was hospitalized for exhaustion.

Anyway: SYFY recently published an oral history of the film that has a lot of great stuff about its creation and legacy. If you’re a fan, check it out.

What are some horror movies you folks love? I’m always open to recommendations on that front.

All threads are open threads–this one is no exception.

“Nobody Trusts Anybody Now, and We’re All Very Tired”Post + Comments (103)

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