Climate Change

The second is that the NWS historically has done a very good job at that forecast contextualization (outreach to local governments, emergency managers, outdoor recreation facilities, etc.). But that’s one of the first things to go away when offices are critically understaffed.

The third is that this kind of record-shattering rain (caused by slow-moving torrential thunderstorms) event is *precisely* that which is increasing the fastest in warming climate. So it’s not a question of whether climate change played a role–it’s only a question of how much.

The fourth is that *exact* location and intensity localized to regional-scale convective storms (i.e., clusters of intense thunderstorms) are something that, in almost all cases, cannot be pinpointed days in advance with extant predictive tools–even in theory.

That means that while predictions can correctly highlight specific regions at high risk of extreme rainfall/flash floods from such events (as was the case here), it’s not possible to predict the exact amount of rain at specific points from t-storm downpours so far in advance.

Predicting such storms is at the cutting edge of science right now, and the stakes are rising in a warming world in which they are intensifying. Yet this is precisely the kind of research that NOAA/NSF have funded in the U.S. over decades that is at imminent risk of disappearing.

Additionally, some of NOAA’s very high resolution convective-resolving models (designed specifically for this purpose) were the ones that best predicted this incipient disaster. Yet these very same models are on the chopping block this year with the proposed NOAA budget.

All of this is to say: I think it’s simply untrue to say this is a story about how the NWS somehow made a bad prediction or did not issue timely warnings in this case–that’s just demonstrably untrue. The more proximal causes of the tragedy are otherwise. But…

But there are clear intersections between flood disaster in TX & ongoing conversations surrounding federal budget & massive cuts to NWS operations & NOAA/NASA/NSF weather/climate research–precisely at a moment in which we are seeing more events like this due to climate change.

Trump’s DOGE Cuts Are a Texas-Sized Disaster
#RepublicansKillAmericans
www.texasobserver.org/trump-texas-…

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— Thomas Keepout (@thomasworking.bsky.social) July 5, 2025 at 3:12 PM

… It is not exactly breaking news that Texas is vulnerable to extreme weather, with recent hurricanes and wildfires fresh in mind, nor is the well-documented effect of a warming climate in magnifying severe weather. Just look to the growing count of billion-dollar natural disasters (severe storms, drought, flood, wildfires, severe cold). For example, from 2020 to 2024 Texas suffered 68 of these costly events, with Florida second at 34.

By upending the federal status quo around disaster relief, states like Texas could be left without a paddle. The largest federal program directed to the threat is Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) disaster aid, followed by companion assistance for damaged homes from the Department of Housing and Urban Development and help for impacted businesses from the Small Business Administration. A breakout by state of aid from these federal agencies since 2017 shows that Texas and Florida, each receiving about $18 billion, account for almost a third of the 50-state total.

DOGE already cut roughly 20 percent of FEMA’s staff and moved to freeze its funds. And Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled his interest in shifting disaster relief responsibilities entirely to the states. On June 11, he made that threat more concrete by saying that his administration would start phasing out FEMA after this current hurricane season ends in November. “We want to wean off of FEMA, and we want to bring it down to the state level,” Trump said. “A governor should be able to handle it, and frankly, if they can’t handle it, the aftermath, then maybe they shouldn’t be governor.”

That, of course, would be bad news for Texas, where Republican leaders routinely play politics with disaster response and relief. Further warming in response to continuing greenhouse emissions ensures that the cost of climate change-augmented storms, floods, and wildfires will only increase with Texans prominent among the victims…

The state has developed some ambitious plans for its vulnerable coastline, the most prominent investment being the Galveston Bay Storm Surge Barrier System, better known as the Ike Dike. It would be carried out by the U.S. Corps of Engineers in coordination with the Gulf Coast Protection District (GCPD), which the state created in 2021 to implement coastal resilience projects. The price tag of that project is huge. In 2021 the Corps estimated that it would cost $34 billion, which would make it the agency’s most expensive project ever. But only two years later that estimate had risen to $57 billion, and whenever the project is ultimately funded the cost will surely be higher…

@svdate.bsky.social

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— George Conway 👊🇺🇸🔥 (@gtconway.bsky.social) July 5, 2025 at 1:55 PM

MAGA having a real normal one in response to the tragic flooding in Texas

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— MeidasTouch (@meidastouch.com) July 5, 2025 at 2:07 PM