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You are here: Home / Archives for Elections / 2024 Elections

2024 Elections

Republican Politics Open Thread: DeSantis, Grinding Down the Edges

by Anne Laurie|  January 17, 20236:34 pm| 75 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Elections, Open Threads, Republican Politics, Riveted By The Sociological Significance Of It All

they normally reserve this treatment for democratic women and barack obama

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachi) January 17, 2023

Seems as though Ron DeSantis is not the 2024 candidate the Republican elite would’ve chosen. But, at the present moment, he’s the best alternative to TFG they’ve got… and, that being so, Politico will join the work crew dedicated to reshaping his public image. Sorta. While carefully preserving a level of ‘ironic’ deniability, just in case:

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — When a couple hundred major donors to Gov. Ron DeSantis’s inauguration arrived at a candlelight dinner to the sounds of a solo saxophonist the night before his swearing-in last week they found a pair of surprises waiting for them.

In a departure from the pedestrian fare found at most political banquets, DeSantis, a food-lover with Italian roots, flew in the crew from Carbone, the trendy, New York-founded restaurant chain that moved to Miami last year, to both make a point about companies relocating to Florida and to offer a treat to contributors who gave at least $25,000.

Yet what was even more of a thrill to the donors than Carbone’s signature spicy rigatoni was what happened during the dinner: DeSantis and his wife, Casey, went table to table greeting and thanking the attendees.

Such a gesture would hardly be noteworthy for most politicians. But the early rap on DeSantis from his fellow Republicans is that, for all his smarts and shrewdness, he lacks charm, and is either unwilling or unable to submit to the longstanding rituals of retail politics.

So the mere fact that he table-hopped at a dinner in his honor — and that more than a few of his contributors were thrilled enough about the personal touch to recount it to me after the closed-press fete — is revealing.

The governor’s glad-handing illustrates that he’s absorbed the critique about his aloofness and is making an effort at rebutting it. The delighted response about an unremarkable show of gratitude demonstrates how little of it he’s done to date; and the relish with which his glancing interactions were recalled indicates how low the expectations bar is for DeSantis and what it means to an important constituency when he clears said bar…

Counterargument, from Lulu Garcia-Navarro in a NYTimes op-ed — “Republicans Are Getting It Wrong About DeSantis and Florida” (unpaywalled ‘gift’ link):

… The case for Mr. DeSantis… isn’t just that he looks comparatively sage next to Mr. Trump. It’s also that he spoke out early against lockdowns and has overseen a growing economy. Florida now has the fastest-growing population in the country, a factoid that Mr. DeSantis’s spokesman, Jeremy Redfern, immediately touted after it was announced. “People vote with their feet,” he said. “We are proud to be a model for the nation, and an island of sanity in a sea of madness.”

Most criticism of Mr. DeSantis’s national electability has been centered around his lack of charisma, which Mr. Trump crystallized by giving him the cumbersome nickname Ron DeSanctimonious. But focusing on personality and style obscures the governor’s real failings: Florida is not a model for the nation, unless the nation wants to become unaffordable for everyone except rich snowbirds.

While my home state’s popularity might indeed seem like good news for a governor with presidential ambitions, a closer look shows that Florida is underwater demographically. Most of those flocking there are aging boomers with deep pockets, adding to the demographic imbalance for what is already one of the grayest populations in the nation. This means that Florida won’t have the younger workers needed to care for all those seniors. And while other places understand that immigrants, who often work in the service sector and agriculture, two of Florida’s main industries, are vital to replenishing aging populations, Mr. DeSantis and the state G.O.P. are not exactly immigrant-friendly, enacting legislation to limit the ability of people with uncertain legal status to work in the state…

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While Mr. DeSantis has been busy limiting what can be taught in schools, flying immigrants to Northern states and punishing “woke” Disney, working-class Floridians are being priced out of many Florida cities. Miami now surpasses Los Angeles and New York City as the least-affordable city for housing in the United States, and joining it in the top five is the once working-class South Florida Cuban-American bastion of Hialeah. Miami is also second in income inequality, with levels roughly comparable with Colombia’s and Panama’s. Rents are soaring across many other parts of the state as well. And health care costs are unbearably high compared with those in other parts of the country because workers in the state have to shoulder a higher percentage of premiums.

The fact is, Florida is having many of the same problems as its liberal archnemesis California, and its Republican-led State Legislature is doing little to help less-affluent families thrive. More than 76 percent of Floridians live on the coasts, but in an era of fierce storms due to climate change and rising sea levels, many can’t afford or even qualify for insurance for their homes, especially those who live in older buildings or in low-income areas. Lawmakers in Tallahassee ended the year giving insurance companies a huge bailout but doing little to reduce insurance costs for homeowners…

For the average Republican voter, presumably, ‘turning the whole country into a banana-Republican paradise divided between an elite kleptocracy and a vastly larger population of serfs’ would be a feature not a bug. But it certainly gives us Democrats a stick with which to beat him!

remaining pretty bullish on the idea that trump might not be able to win a primary but he can make damned sure desantis loses the general

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachi) January 16, 2023

yeah man voters are totally gonna think a reedy-voiced religious culture warrior is the candidate of the center https://t.co/Kjns9tpddr

— knife-wielding hemophiliac (@NickTagliaferro) January 16, 2023

Romney 2012 was the tamest possible version of a candidate being brought down by pandering to evangelicals and fiscal conservatives and you think leaning into it is going to go better?

— knife-wielding hemophiliac (@NickTagliaferro) January 16, 2023

mAkE iT uP iN tHe CeNtEr pic.twitter.com/tdlwciLaOS

— Pomodoro (Dad Joke Era) (@ilpomodoro2) January 16, 2023

And, of course, TFG might not be able to clinch his own candidacy, but he most certainly can bloody up any alternative candidates…

Trump today on Desantis: “I got him elected, pure and simple. And there was no reason to go wild about endorsing him .. So, now I hear he might want to run against me. So, we’ll handle that the way I handle things.” pic.twitter.com/rBBYyUtnNW

— Ron Filipkowski ???? (@RonFilipkowski) January 16, 2023

Republican Politics Open Thread: DeSantis, Grinding Down the EdgesPost + Comments (75)

“For Entertainment Purposes Only” Open Thread: TFG & the Seven(teen) Orcs

by Anne Laurie|  December 15, 20227:20 pm| 74 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Elections, Excellent Links, Republicans in Disarray!, Assholes, Schadenfreude

Warren on Joe Biden … pic.twitter.com/zao0Y3KUYX

— Christopher Cadelago (@ccadelago) December 15, 2022

My senior Senator is a smart lady. Barring unforeseen events, incumbent Joe Biden will be the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024. This fact is an ongoing irritant to Our Very Serious Media (Village Idiots), who prefer speculation and rumor to process.

At least they have a wide — gaping, even! — field of potential Repub candidates to keep them busy, and the rest of us entertained. ‘Longtime political observer’ Ed Kilgore, at NYMag, has an excellent summary of the current wannabes — “Here Come the Trump 2024 Alternatives”:

It’s the early — or perhaps silly — season of the 2024 presidential-election cycle, and the only actual candidate in the field is former president Donald Trump. Among Republicans, Trump remains the front-runner despite pervasive signs of GOP fatigue with him, and the fears his destructive involvement in a disappointing 2022 midterm election have fanned even in MAGA-land. If Trump thought his early 2024 announcement would clear the field of potential rivals as the party base swooned over him all over again, he was wrong. But flirting with a run against the King and stimulating speculation among the chattering classes isn’t the same thing as mounting an actual campaign against the man who has been underestimated so many times before.

Right now, the so-called invisible primary of scribbling and gabbing, winking and whispering, probably reflects the fantasy world of Republicans as much as any real prospects for winning the nomination. So the right question today may be what prospective candidates bring to this GOP dreamscape of a future more promising than a Biden-Trump rematch…

– Ron DeSantis: Trump reverse-engineered…
– Mike Pence: Trump sanctified…
– Ted Cruz: The pre-Trump throwback…
– Mike Pompeo: He’s very available…
– Glenn Youngkin: An anti-Washington candidate from the D.C. burbs…
– Nikki Haley: Something for everybody…
– Tim Scott: The we’re-not-racist validator…

From another blog favorite:

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Watch this clip & ask how in the world the media decided *this* guy is a political juggernaut. "Trumpism w/out Trump" is a mirage willed into existence by a press corps & commentariat who puff up nasally Mussolini-lites b/c the ultimate show-down will make a "great story" https://t.co/3ByBqroEju

— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) December 14, 2022

This, was in fact, the correct take https://t.co/W8pMcfOnnz

— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) December 14, 2022

Now, when it comes to DeSantis, I am truly loathe to make predictions about 2024, but if I were to hazard a guess, DeSantis & Trump will spend the primary trying to out-Nazi each other and Trump will eventually win b/c DeSantis’s voice is rather high pitched & that will be that

Now I refuse to make predictions about the presidential election b/c there’s just too much trauma there and the electoral college makes such predictions tenuous, but let’s say DeSantis wins the primary. Maybe he’ll win the general, but not b/c anyone thinks he’s scintillating

The point is that the media wants good stories. They also, for some reason, seem to herd around specific narrative tropes about characters that exist *soley* for the sake of the good story. Ron DeSantis is perceived as powerful because we have been told he is powerful.

Meanwhile, here's how DeSantis performed the last time he ran as a non-incumbent. Note that this is his performance in Florida, which is increasingly showing Democratic bloodbaths. Did DeSantis win? Sure. But this margin is hardly indicative of a powerhouse pic.twitter.com/GWIAy1IXUB

— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) December 14, 2022

Just to be clear: I am not making fun of DeSantis’s voice. I am saying that Trump will most definitely make fun of it, DeSantis will be perceived as “weak,” and Republican primary voters are jerks who make decisions based on jerky factors like mocking men with high voices.

Wasn’t Tim Pawlenty a GOP rising star at one point? Scott Walker? Bobby Jindal?

— NeedBirds (@NeedBirds) December 14, 2022

I still remember the hype about Marco Rubio and the so-called "Young Guns"

— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha) December 14, 2022

Let us never forget that the GOP Death Cult has cultivated a flourishing batch of, shall we say, differently hinged TFG supporters, who will not let their golden idol go down without fighting.

Please do! Super exciting! https://t.co/McKYheHKMR

— Greg Pinelo (@gregpinelo) December 14, 2022

Rooting for injuries!

“For Entertainment Purposes Only” Open Thread: TFG & the Seven(teen) OrcsPost + Comments (74)

Georgia Matters More Than You Realize

by John Cole|  November 12, 20221:48 pm| 303 Comments

This post is in: 2022 Elections, 2024 Elections, 2024 Elections, Elections

I’ve seen a number of people say that the stakes are lower in Georgia if CCM wins in Nevada, pulling ahead of Laxalt, because then it will be 50-49 with Kamala as thew tiebreaker. For a number of reasons, this is stupid and wrong. First, a win in Georgia makes it 51-49, with no powersharing agreement with Mitch. On top of thaty, it will foment a bloody revolt within the Senate as to who succeeds McConnell, and whoever that is will not have the wits or clout of Mitch, making the Republican Senate a clown caucus.

Second, winning that seat does not make it a Democratic seat for just the next two years, but the next six. And I don’t know if you have looked down the road or not, but the Senate outlook for 2024 is brutal. Of the 33 seats up in 2024, Dems hold 23 of them. It’s going to be very rough, so having that Warnock seat is extremely important.

Georgia Matters More Than You Realize

Look at that list. I can tell you right now that Manchin likely will not run, but if he does, he will not win. It’s a fucking brutal list any way you look at it.

And third, and most important, Warnock is a GOOD MAN. He is a decent, good, kind, educated pleasant man with the good of the public at heart. That in and of itself is reason enough to act like that seat is the most important race in the country. There aren’t too many good people in politics. He’s one of them.\

Georgia Matters More Than You RealizePost + Comments (303)

Monday Afternoon Open Thread: Way to Make Yourself Popular, Sen. Sinema!

by Anne Laurie|  September 26, 20224:00 pm| 173 Comments

This post is in: 2022 Elections, 2024 Elections, Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Our Failed Media Experiment

Kyrsten Sinema is currently speaking at the McConnell Center talking about how proud she is to have “forged a friendship” with him “rooted in our commonalities.”

In 43 days, we can elect 2 more Democratic senators to make Sinema irrelevant & suspend the filibuster to codify Roe. pic.twitter.com/YdhFsUnB2V

— No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen (@NoLieWithBTC) September 26, 2022

Gosh, one wonders why she’s not more popular among her constituents!

… These numbers, from a new Arizona poll commissioned by the AARP, are pretty remarkable! Her unpopularity “crosses the aisle” like that of no politician I’ve ever seen. A solid 54 percent of Arizona Republicans don’t like her. And 51 percent of independents don’t like her (her best result!). As for Democrats? Arizonans of Sinema’s putative party simply do not like her, to the tune of 57 percent. (And that’s a distinct improvement from her 80 percent disapproval rating with Democrats in January!)

Name a demographic group, and Sinema is viewed unfavorably by a majority of them. Women? 55 percent unfavorable. Men? 53 percent unfavorable. White voters? 56 percent unfavorable. Hispanic voters? 54 percent unfavorable.

She’s not very popular with college graduates (53 percent unfavorable), but unfortunately she’s even less popular with people who haven’t graduated college (55 percent unfavorable).

Voters 50 and over? Her unpopularity with them is also 50 and over (54 percent, specifically). But young people also don’t like her (55 percent unpopularity)…

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On Friday, the women of Arizona found out they now have to live under an anti-abortion law from 1864, stripping them of basic human rights.

Sinema wants to make it more difficult to get them back. https://t.co/GvTXKessYE

— Rex Chapman🏇🏼 (@RexChapman) September 26, 2022

Kyrsten Sinema is in Louisville today giving a lecture on bipartisanship with Mitch McConnell.

She still hasn’t held a town hall in Arizona since taking office 3 years ago. pic.twitter.com/aNeAyQKPdz

— Sawyer Hackett (@SawyerHackett) September 26, 2022

Barring an act of (the Trickster) God, Sinema’s seat is safe until 2024. But at least she can serve as a prod to get out the vote, elect two more Democratic senators, and make her (and Joe Manchin) redundant!

I mean you could be out there helping our candidates @SenatorSinema But my sense is that you would actually prefer the Dems lose control of the Senate and House. https://t.co/Okwg1lyZUT

— Ruben Gallego (@RubenGallego) September 26, 2022

Keith Olbermann may be weirdly prescient…

When we dated, in 2010-11, Kyrsten was a legit progressive, far to my left.

Now she has embraced the Political Industry™? where there is only process, not policy, and never people.

Perfect solution: she can be the next host of @MeetThePress https://t.co/lSvKDDykjZ

— Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) September 26, 2022

She’s got the Chuckles Toad shtick down to a nicety, after all…

At this point @chucktodd is explicitly endorsing January 6 denialism by continuing to invite Nancy Mace onto Meet the Press https://t.co/oYt7l2CIuY

— Matt Negrin, HOST OF HARDBALL AT 7PM ON MSNBC (@MattNegrin) September 25, 2022

Monday Afternoon Open Thread: Way to Make Yourself Popular, Sen. Sinema!Post + Comments (173)

Late Night Open Thread: Ron ‘Stoppable’ DeSantis?

by Anne Laurie|  July 20, 20225:58 am| 96 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Elections, Balloon Juice, Commentary, Elections, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Politics, Republicans in Disarray!

Getting noticed more and more…

The media's depiction of Ron DeSantis as some kind of culture-warrior-extraordinaire is not based in evidence. DeSantis's approval on the economy is strongish (50%), meanwhile more Floridians *disapprove* than approve on "race relations," climate change, & "unifying Floridians" pic.twitter.com/Si5Y49azDr

— Magdi Semrau (@magi_jay) July 17, 2022

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In fact, DeSantis's approval across all categories has either fallen or remained steady since April, according to polling by the University of South Florida. His disapproval has risen, including on the economy/jobs, suggesting that perhaps his war w/ Disney wasn't so masterful af pic.twitter.com/QRRu1MHisa

— Magdi Semrau (@magi_jay) July 17, 2022

The overall picture here is that DeSantis is polling relatively poorly on "cultural issues" and his economic approval has actually fallen 6 pts since April, when the Disney controversy began. How do you get "strong man brilliance" out of these numbers? https://t.co/tytbQv60ix pic.twitter.com/t5MK4rdQan

— Magdi Semrau (@magi_jay) July 17, 2022

the reason I’m thinking about this being, I think whether Trump runs again and how aggressively he attacks others in the primary depends on whether he thinks specifically *he* has to be president or if any R will do https://t.co/21tw4khhN9

— counterfax?? (@counterfax) July 18, 2022

Late Night Open Thread: Ron ‘Stoppable’ DeSantis?Post + Comments (96)

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