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You are here: Home / Archives for Elections / Election 2008

Election 2008

Pragmatism and pre-negotiations

by David Anderson|  August 15, 20175:21 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Don't Agonize - Organize, Election 2008, Election 2016, Election 2018, NANCY SMASH!, OBAMA IS WORSE THAN BUSH HE SOLD US OUT!!

In comments to the post on pragmatic evolution of US health policy on Monday, The Question raised a point that I want to respond to:

on health care why do we always have to pre-negotiate with ourselves and have ourselves primed to accept half a loaf? I am so tired of being sensible when there is no gorram reward. If loudly shouting the most extreme thing we want gets us even half what the republicans have gotten out of it why the hell not??

I want to raise an empirical point and then a broader political/policy point that explains my thought process.

First, empirically, what has “shouting the most extreme thing” gotten Republicans?

It has gotten them power.

What have they done with it so far? In 2009, Democrats at this point had a smaller functional majority in the Senate and a slightly larger majority in the House than the Republicans have today. Democrats had passed and signed into law the stimulus, CHIP re-authorization, Lily Ledbetter, and the Dodd-Frank CARD ACT by now.  They were grinding their way through what would become the ACA.

What have the Republicans accomplished as of today?

show full post on front page

They got a Supreme Court justice at the cost of allowing liberals to nominate liberals in the future. And they named a bunch of post offices. What else have they gotten at the legislative level? And they also got a President who is at 34% who is leading to massive swings against the GOP. Those swings are large enough to endanger the gerrymandered House GOP majority even if they do nothing.

That is my pragmatic point. Being howler monkeys may be a successful strategy to gain power but it has not been a successful strategy to exercise power.

Now onto the broader point of pragmatism or pre-compromising depending on your point of view, I want to bring back a post from December 2015 regarding a statement made by the current FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb on the ACA Exchanges. First I will highlight a post from earlier that week explaining the bullshit:

leading lights of the conservative “health wonk” community is peddling bullshit that is technically true if you parse it correctly but designed to mislead anyone but a hyper technical reader.

Last year open enrollment started on November 15th. The 6th week of open enrollment would have been the first week of January.

This year, open enrollment started on November 1st. The 6th week of open enrollment just wrapped up.

Yes, at the six week mark of open enrollment, 2014 enrollment is running higher than 2015 enrollment. However there is one massive fact that will show 2015 open enrollment 7th week selections running ahead of 2014 7th week selections. Sometime at the end of this week, Healthcare.gov and most of the state based exchanges will conduct a massive automatic renewal of plans.

Trump is a partial consequence of over-promising

And next year, when Obamacare does not collapse in on itself like a neutron star of fail, the same opinion leaders and expert validaters will trot out the same story.

The Republican base has been promised a lot and their party can’t deliver on those goals. The elites don’t have legitimacy because their bullshit has been marked to market so new entries with new, creatively destructive forms of bullshit have a niches that they can fill and a willing mass audience that wants to believe that this time the new guy can deliver on their promises while ignoring the elites who have no credibility.

I want to avoid that cycle. I would rather under-promise and over deliver than over promise and under deliver.

I also believe that the details matter and an accurate assessment of the current state and a reasonable approximation of future states is critical in doing anything well. I can be accused of having that bias for professional and financial reasons as I am a health policy wonk and figuring out complex systems pays the mortgage. I don’t think that is what drives me, but I will acknowledge that possibility.

I want a political and policy program that has two realistic chances.  The first is that it needs a realistic chance of passing Congress and being signed into law.  The second is that once it is law, it needs to have a realistic chance of actually working and doing what it intends to do without surprising consequences in type or scale.

From these preferences, that means identifying things that imperil those two chances.  Great politics don’t always means great policy as we see with the risk pool damage that the Under-26 provision of the ACA creates by pulling out healthy young people from the market.  Needed policy is not always great politics as we see with the individual mandate.  Sometimes a bad is needed to be accepted on one side of the equation to allow the other side to work but those bads should be minimized to the essentials for passage or functionality.  And that means being disciplined in our thinking.

The valuation of “bad” will vary.  It is a combination of projection and a value judgement as to what trade-offs are acceptable.  Having that discussion now and hopefully coming to some type of consensus or at least a clear understanding of different valuations is a good thing as there is time to tweak and rejigger plans.

 

Pragmatism and pre-negotiationsPost + Comments (16)

Living just enough, just enough

by DougJ|  June 6, 20179:49 pm| 99 Comments

This post is in: Election 2008, Assholes

What a fucking idiot. The first rule of opposing a livable wage is you don’t call it a livable wage.

During Tuesday night’s debate for an open U.S. House seat in Georgia, Republican candidate Karen Handel said that she does not support a “livable wage.”

I’m not raising money for Ossoff because I think the 30 million spent on the race already is enough but let’s keep raising money for the eventual Democratic nominee in all 238 districts Republicans currently hold. Let’s make the next Democratic majority a 435 seat one.

Goal Thermometer

Living just enough, just enoughPost + Comments (99)

Make Sure to Save the Date!

by Adam L Silverman|  December 14, 20164:09 pm| 103 Comments

This post is in: America, An Unexamined Scandal, Because of wow., Domestic Politics, Election 2008, Election 2012, Events, Open Threads, Politics, Post-racial America, Silverman on Security, General Stupidity, OLD MAN YELLS AT CLOUDS, Our Awesome Meritocracy, Our Failed Media Experiment, Our Failed Political Establishment, Outrage

Oy vey…

OMG. Joe Arpaio will keep the birther bullshit going until Obama leaves office pic.twitter.com/6Aj4ffBEWl

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) December 14, 2016

 

Make Sure to Save the Date!Post + Comments (103)

Threading the Needle (Updated)

by Betty Cracker|  April 29, 20161:36 pm| 235 Comments

This post is in: Austerity Bombing, Bernie Sanders 2016, Election 2008, Election 2016, Hillary Clinton 2016, Politics, Republican Stupidity, General Stupidity, Our Failed Media Experiment

Created with Microsoft Fresh Paint

It’s instructive in a “compare and contrast” sense to read today’s NYT columns from David Brooks and Paul Krugman. Brooks is contemplating the Trumpocalypse and what it all means for professional plutocracy apologists like himself. He warns us to gird ourselves for more Applebees salad bar stories, as Doug points out downstairs, dog help us.

Brooks attributes Trump’s rise — and Sanders’ too — to a broad sense of American decline:

This election — not only the Trump phenomenon but the rise of Bernie Sanders, also — has reminded us how much pain there is in this country. According to a Pew Research poll, 75 percent of Trump voters say that life has gotten worse for people like them over the last half century.

In the morning thread, sharp-eyed commenter Jeffro noticed Brooks’ rhetorical switcheroo there, speaking of Sanders and Trump voters and then citing a poll result exclusive to the Trumpenproletariat, as if Sanders voters share the exact same concerns. And it is a sly form of both-sides-do-it-ism.

Krugman has a different take on why the Trumpites are angry as well as an explanation for why the GOP establishment candidates went down to humiliating defeat while Clinton is prevailing on the Dem side:

Both parties make promises to their bases. But while the Democratic establishment more or less tries to make good on those promises, the Republican establishment has essentially been playing bait-­and-­switch for decades. And voters finally rebelled against the con.

Krugman is right. But Brooks isn’t 100% wrong when he says there is pain on both sides of the political divide, even if he is dishonest in how he frames it. There is real pain out there, and it’s not all attributable to aggrieved white men who are finally getting a taste of the economic insecurity the rest of the world has been swallowing for decades.

Ostensibly middle-class families are one outpatient surgery deductible away from financial catastrophe. Students are graduating with crushing debt. Parents have no idea how they’ll ever retire. The unemployment rate is at a 40-year low, but try finding a decent job if you’re a 50-something woman or a 17-year-old black kid.

These things are real. And what Hillary Clinton is going to have to do is thread that needle – highlighting, protecting and expanding what President Obama and his Democratic predecessors have accomplished on the one hand while at the same time communicating that she understands how much further we have to go. It won’t be an easy task.

Yesterday, Bernie Sanders gave a speech in which he allegedly dialed back the criticism of Hillary Clinton a bit but lambasted the Democratic Party instead:

“The Democratic Party has to reach a fundamental conclusion: Are we on the side of working people or big-­money interests? Do we stand with the elderly, the children, the sick and the poor? Or do we stand with Wall Street speculators and the drug companies and the insurance companies?”

When I heard that, my first thought was, gosh, that’s not particularly helpful. How about at least acknowledging that there’s exactly one party that recently expanded healthcare coverage to 20 million people, passed Medicare, Social Security and CHIP and imposed any regulation at all on Wall Street and Big Pharma? And over the screaming intransigence of the only other party that is relevant in US elections?

But aren’t Sanders’ remarks a perfect segue for Clinton to deliver the message she must communicate? I still think Sanders will come around to endorsing Clinton and urging his supporters to support her and elect the Democratic Congressional majority she’ll need to get shit done. But in the meantime, maybe starting this conversation will do. If Hillary is going to sew it up, it’s time to thread that needle.

ETA: A piping hot new version of Cleek’s pie filter has just come out of the oven. Lay claim to your slice here.

Threading the Needle (Updated)Post + Comments (235)

Good news everybody: ACA cost edition

by David Anderson|  March 25, 201612:59 pm| 9 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Yes We Did

CBO: #ACA subsidies increase 11%, overall costs are 25% less than first projected https://t.co/zqCL17yHa5

— MB (@baxterdc) March 25, 2016

So under budget and on projection for the target uninsured rate even with Chief Justice Roberts enabling sociopaths and assholes to stop Medicaid Expansion in 20 states.

Not bad at all….

UPDATE 1: The next time there is a massive social program passing Congress with uncertain costs, we need to put in mechanisms to take advantage of success instead of safeguards against massive cost overruns. The ACA has triggers where if the total federal cost of the advanced premium tax credit and the cost sharing reduction subsidies were more than .504% of GDP, future year individual shares would increase and the thresholds for federal subsidies would decline.
There were no mechanisms in place to say if subsidies were significant below budget that either subsidies for currently qualified individuals would get richer so their out of pocket premium expense would decline OR more people would become eligible for subsidies.

This is just a note to self to find again in 20 years.

Good news everybody: ACA cost editionPost + Comments (9)

Good news everybody

by David Anderson|  March 4, 20166:25 am| 32 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Election 2008, Election 2012, NANCY SMASH!, Proud to Be A Democrat, Fuck Yeah!, Nobody could have predicted, OBAMA IS WORSE THAN BUSH HE SOLD US OUT!!

Just some more good news:

Nice chart from @HHS_ASPE on different measures of the uninsured rate. https://t.co/uGhGn759s6 pic.twitter.com/fi3uij9jqm

— Margot Sanger-Katz (@sangerkatz) March 3, 2016

and the good news will probably continue for the first quarter of 2016:

expected ++ gains from Exchange ++ Montana and Alaska Medicaid and a decent economy still supporting good ESI #s https://t.co/v3MCqJFUfe

— Richard Mayhew (@bjdickmayhew) March 3, 2016

So in 3 years, all of the data sources suggest that we’ve cut the uninsured rate in half and slowed the cost curve. There are another couple percentage points of easy gains once the rest of the Confederacy and the everyone between the Mississippi’s left bank and the Columbia’s south bank expand Medicaid.

Then we’ll actually need to take another whack to get the last 5% of the population covered AND get better coverage for 25% to 30% of the currently covered population.

Good news everybodyPost + Comments (32)

Dean 2004, Obama 2008, Sanders 2016 and white liberals

by David Anderson|  March 2, 201610:17 pm| 328 Comments

This post is in: Election 2008, Election 2016, Yes We Did, Fools! Overton Window!, The Dirty F-ing Hippies Were Right

Just a few quick notes on the current campaign through the eyes of a white liberal who has never felt the Bern.

On fundraising through February 2016:

Sen. Bernard Sanders may have lost a majority of states on Super Tuesday, but he continues to pull ahead of Democratic presidential primary rival Hillary Clinton in the money race.

The Sanders campaign announced Tuesday it raised $42.7 million in February, and the Clinton campaign announced Wednesday morning it raised $30 million during the month.

On the primary campaign demographics in 2016:

There are three times as many nonblack voters as black voters in the Democratic primary electorate. To cancel her strength, Mr. Sanders would need to win nonblack voters by about 20 percentage points, since Mrs. Clinton leads by more than 60 points among black voters.

And now backing things out a bit.

The Dean campaign in 2004 was overwhelmingly white liberals who were looking for a cause.  The Dean campaign was the first time I showed up on an FEC report.

The Obama coalition in the 2008 primary was a combination of white liberals and the African American community plus not getting crushed among the other major groups within the Democratic primary electorate.  The Sanders coalition is primarily white liberals and rural Democrats.  The Clinton 2008 coalition was moderate and conservative Democrats, Latinos and a bit more female then the party as a whole.  Her coalition in 2016 is her 2008 coalition plus the African American bloc.

What we are seeing is the limit of white liberal power within the Democratic coalition.

It is more than sufficient to fund campaigns but it is insufficient to create a durable national majority.  White liberals by themselves are a much larger, and far less crazy analogue to the Paulbots of the Republican Party — more then sufficient to generate a lot of money and advance ideological arguments.  It is well connected to to privileged positions within the media and discussion ecosystem and due to its demographics plus committment of its members, it can fundraise efficiently on the internet at small to medium donor levels.  Internet fundraising allows for a fairly low burn rate on the part of ideological and aspirational campaigns to tap this set of small donors.    These are two very strong political assets.

However white liberals alone or with minor coalition partners, are not able to form a majority within the Democratic Party.  .  White liberals get a whole lot closer to forming a majority than libertarian dude bros but they cap out significantly short of a majority.

 

 

Dean 2004, Obama 2008, Sanders 2016 and white liberalsPost + Comments (328)

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