Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

The current Supreme Court is a rogue court. Very dangerous.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

People are complicated. Love is not.

Trump makes a mockery of the legal system and cowardly judges just sit back and let him.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

Another missed opportunity for Jamie Dimon to just shut the fuck up.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

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The Really Important Fact About Erik Prince That Everyone’s Coverage Keeps Missing: His Frontier Services Group is Funded By the People’s Republic of China

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The really important fact about Erik Prince that is not mentioned in The New York Times reporting that he has been using retired US and British spies, presumably human intelligence offers (HUMINTers), to teach James O’Keefe’s Project Veritas employees to be more effective is not that Prince founded and used to run Blackwater, nor that he’s Secretary of Education Betsy DeVoss’s brother, nor that he’s very close with the President and others in the administration and the reelection campaign. The really important fact is that Erik Prince’s Frontier Services Group, the company of military contractors that he runs, is owned by DVN  Holdings, which would ultimately make Prince its chairman. DVN Holdings is owned by Hong Kong investor Johnson Ko Chun and the Chinese International Trust Investment Corporation (Citic), which is a People’s Republic of China (PRC) owned investment fund. Johnson Ko Chun is also on the board of directors of Cambridge Analytica’s spin off Emerdata Ltd along with Rebekah Mercer, her sister Jennifer, as well as former senior officials from Cambridge Analytica. Emerdata is also still tied to the former Cambridge Analytica’s parent firm SCL Group.

The important fact that everyone keeps missing is that Erik Prince’s operations are funded by the People’s Republic of China. He is now their asset. If he is involved with O’Keefe’s merry band of political ratfuckers, then he is only involved so long as Xi and the PRC want him to be. The same goes for Emerdata. And anything else that Prince involves himself with. Despite having a long history of looting his own companies and skimming from his investors and backers, such as the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates, Prince’s financial backing from the PRC state owned Chinese International Trust Investment Corporation means that he works for the PRC and does so only as long as he advances their interests.

Xi and the PRC conduct their influence operations – from weaponizing diplomatic, information, economic, financial, intelligence, and legal power – as a form of 21st Century warfare very differently than Putin and the Russians do. Xi’s and the PRC are subtle and precise, where Putin and the Russians are brutish and imprecise. The role of Prince’s Frontier Service’s Group in advancing Xi’s One Belt, One Road initiative, which is definitely NOT in the United State’s strategic interests, is evidence of who is in charge in this relationship. Xi and the PRC call the shots. And while they might give Prince a lot of rope to conduct business in his usual dodgy manner, it should never forget that they are the hands on the end of that rope. If Prince is paying former intelligence officers to train Project Veritas employees who will then interfere in domestic politics in the US, then he is doing it because it suits not just his or his sister’s or the President’s purposes. He is doing it because it suits Xi’s and the PRC’s purposes. Who his paymasters are and how they exert control over their assets is the really important piece of information that everyone reporting on Prince’s connection to Project Veritas and commenting on the reporting is missing.

Open thread.

 

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Iran Is Far From A Nuclear Weapon

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I’ve been writing this now since 2012 or earlier, but reporters and editors don’t care to learn about the uranium supply line and the processes that form it into a nuclear weapon. Or they like sensationalized clicks better. So here it is again.

The IAEA defines what it calls a “significant quantity” of enriched uranium as 25 kg of U-235 in enriched uranium. That’s approximately enough for a nuclear weapon, although it varies with the weapon design. The IAEA needs an arbitrary number like that for reporting on its inspections. It’s a quick rule of thumb. (If you click that link, you’ll see others writing about it in 2012.)

Because the United States has withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, Iran nuclear agreement), Iran has been ramping up its production of low-enriched uranium. That’s a few percent of U-235. You need 90% or more to make a nuclear weapon.

Yesterday, the IAEA’s latest report on Iran was released, with numbers, and oh boy now the reporters and editors can show us they can divide!

The low-enriched uranium that Iran has produced contains more than 25 kg of U-235. It would have to be further enriched to produce bomb-grade uranium. Then it would have to be formed into the proper shapes and explosives and electronics added to make it into a bomb. One bomb. One bomb would have a slight deterrent effect, but it’s not good for much else. In fact, announcing it for that deterrent effect would simultaneously paint a target on Iran.

I’ve seen two headlines this morning that ignore all that in favor of whipping up war fever. It doesn’t help that there are think tanks pushing this line, and that the Trumpies have been working with them hand in glove.

So here they are:

Business Insider: Iran has stockpiled enough uranium to produce a nuclear weapon in the latest sign Trump’s strategy has ‘failed miserably’. The last part is right, anyway.

New York Times: Iran Crosses a Key Threshold: It Again Has Sufficient Fuel for a Bomb. At least their subhead is better: So far, the evidence suggests that Iran’s recent actions are calculated to pressure the Trump administration and Europe rather than rushing for a bomb.

There’s no doubt Iran could build a bomb if they wanted to. The fact that they signed on to the JCPOA and that they haven’t built one is good evidence that they don’t want to. Let’s not convince them otherwise.

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Israeli Elections Part III: Heading For a Constitutional Crisis

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While everyone is focused on Super Tuesday and the Democratic Primary, Israel is having its third election to try to establish an actual government, rather than Bibi’s semi-perpetual caretaker one, today. As of right now the exit polls seem to indicate that Israel is quickly careening towards a constitutional crisis! Let’s check out the meshugas, shall we?

From Bibi’s unofficial and unapproved political biographer:

The constitutional crisis is what Bibi will try to jam through Knesset if he is, indeed, able to form coalition government after the votes are counted. Remember, for Bibi this election is about remaining prime minister or going to prison. It isn’t about Israel’s security or the common good or anything else. It is solely about not going to prison.

The Mercer’s appear to have their preferred candidate in Israel, not just the US.

I think a lot of the reason that the numbers shifted between the first two elections held last year and today is that because of the actions of the President’s peace negotiating team, Bibi has made it very clear that if his coalition is reelected and he’s able to remain prime minister, that he will annex all the settlements in Area A, as well as significant portions of Area C (the Jordan River valley). This would leave the Palestine Authority with the West Bank equivalent of a terrestrial archipelago. A geographic reality that would make it impossible for there to ever be an actual Palestinian state as there would be no contiguous geography to establish a state. As is too often the case, fear and hate may carry the day.

Now we wait and see if the actual election results match the exit polls. And if Bibi is able to convince the one or two members of Knesset elect to jump to his coalition, if he doesn’t make it all the way to 61 seats outright, so he can try to destroy Israel’s constitution and rule of law system so he can stay out of prison.

Update at 6:25 PM EST

The Times of Israel is reporting updated exit polls!

Updated exit polls reveal Netanyahu coalition set back to 59 seats

Channels 12 and 13 update their exit poll results to include the last two hours of voting — 8 p.m. till 10 p.m. — and deliver possible bad news to a triumphant Likud.

The new figures in both polls show a drop in Likud’s favored rightist-Haredi coalition from 60 to 59 seats, slightly further from the needed 61-seat majority.

Channel 13’s results are:
Likud 37
Blue and White 34 – two more than the original results
Joint List 14
Shas 9
United Torah Judaism 7 – one less
Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7 – one more
Yisrael Beytenu 6 – two less
Yamina 6

Channel 12’s:
Likud 37
Blue and White 32 – one less
Joint List 15 – one more
Shas 9
Yisrael Beytenu 7 – one more
United Torah Judaism 7
Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7
Yamina 6 – one less

Open thread!

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The Weaponization of Intelligence for the President’s Political Purposes: The Coming Influence Operation Against Senator Sanders

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Last night I wrote that it was a problem that Senator Sanders sat on the information that Vladimir Putin was interfering in the Democratic primaries to elevate his candidacy for a month. That by waiting, by not finding a way to get the information released or even leaked in a manner that he could control to get ahead of the information, he placed himself at the mercy of someone else leaking it. Someone else did leak it. And that leak was not done to assist Senator Sanders or his campaign. By sitting on the information, Senator Sanders made himself vulnerable to the other two principal leaders who also had the information: the President and Vladimir Putin. Neither of whom wants Senator Sanders to be the nominee because they want him to become President. Rather the President wants Senator Sanders to be the nominee because he has determined that Senator Sanders will be the easiest of the Democratic primary candidates to defeat. Vladimir Putin wants Senator Sanders to be the nominee because he has assessed that Senator Sanders is the most likely to create chaos within the Democratic Party, which furthers his goal of seeing the President reelected.

As was easily predictable, the information is now being weaponized by the President’s surrogates.

Assistant to the President-National Security Advisor (APNSA) O’Brien’s statement clearing the President of suspicion, but reaffirming the negative information against Senator Sanders will just be the first of many. Expect the Acting DNI, Ambassador Grennell, to make similar statements. Likely backed up by further leaks and/or official disclosures. US intelligence will be weaponized to dirty up Senator Sanders by the political loyalists the President has placed in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The narrative will be to tie the information that Putin is interfering in the primaries on behalf of Senator Sanders with Senator Sanders long history of support for hard socialist and communist leaders and officials in Central and South America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and parts of Asia. This may not be fair, but this is what is going to happen.

This influence campaign, one which will be carried out not just by surrogates and supporters outside of government, but by actual appointed senior officials in the President’s administration like APNSA O’Brien has done with his statement today are not really intended to effect Senator Sanders’ core supporters. Nor is it really intended to influence the Democratic primary. What it is intended to do is create material for Facebook ads to micro-target more moderate Democrats, Democratic leaning Independents, and formerly Republican leaning Independents, as well as to provide material that can be weaponized to reach these same people on Twitter and other social and digital media platforms. The point of doing this will be to depress Democratic turnout, as well as the turnout of non Democrats that will be needed to ensure an Electoral College victory against the President should Senator Sanders be the Democratic nominee. It is also intended to effect down balance races to maintain the Republican majority in the Senate, flip the House majority back to the Republicans, and capture as many Democratic held governorships and state legislatures as possible before the next round of redistricting after the 2020 census.

I’m not writing this to harm Senator Sanders. I guarantee that there is a similar influence operation already planned for each of the potential Democratic nominees. Whichever Democrat gets the nomination is going to face something similar. We’ve been watching the operation against VP Biden for well over a year now. And we know, because I’ve put it on the front page at least eight times, that the seeds of that influence operation against VP Biden were first sown in 2o14. And that should be a concern to Senator Sanders, his campaign, his key surrogates, and his supporters because Senator Sanders has over 40 years of taking controversial, hard left positions and supporting some of the worst hard left, socialist, and communist leaders outside the US. And because the Soviet Intelligence Services were collecting video and audio on him the entire time he was in Soviet Russia for his honeymoon; video and audio that Vladimir Putin will weaponize if and when he feels the need too. And that’s before the President, his campaign, and his surrogates decide to juxtapose the now leaked intelligence that Putin is acting to aid Senator Sanders in the Democratic primary with Senator Sanders voting record regarding Russia – a voting record that leaves a lot to be desired. He voted against the Magnitsky Act in 2012, the sanctions against Russia in 2014 and 2017, and didn’t vote at all when the sanctions against Russia bill came up in 2019. This voting record combined with the now leaked intelligence that Putin is interfering in the Democratic primary on his behalf is all the President, his campaign, and his surrogates need to argue that the President is the one who has and will continue to stand up to Putin, not Senator Sanders who always votes in Putin’s favor. That’s not my argument, that is me anticipating the President’s argument.

This is the reality of the 2020 election. I warned everyone who reads Balloon Juice that the 2020 election was going to be open information warfare back in March 2019. What is happening should not be surprising to anyone. And if Senator Warren or Mayor Buttigieg or Senator Klobuchar were the front runners right now, we would have different weaponized information to produce influence being deployed against them right now. And if one of them should become the front runner, we will.

Open thread.

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Senator Sanders and the President Have Both Been Briefed that Vladimir Putin Is Interfering On Their Behalf In the 2020 Presidential Election

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The Washington Post has reported that both Senator Sanders and the President have both been briefed that Vladimir Putin is interfering on both their behalf in the 2020 election:

U.S. officials have told Sen. Bernie Sanders that Russia is attempting to help his presidential campaign as part of an effort to interfere with the Democratic contest, according to people familiar with the matter.

President Trump and lawmakers on Capitol Hill have also been informed about the Russian assistance to the Vermont senator, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

It is not clear what form that Russian assistance has taken. U.S. prosecutors found a Russian effort in 2016 to use social media to boost Sanders campaign against Hillary Clinton, part of a broader effort to hurt Clinton, sow dissension in the American electorate and ultimately help elect Donald Trump.

Senator Sanders both gave The Washington Post an appropriate response, but had his campaign issue it as a formal and official one as well.

“I don’t care, frankly, who Putin wants to be president,” Sanders said in a statement to The Washington Post. “My message to Putin is clear: stay out of American elections, and as president I will make sure that you do.

Senator Sanders and the President Have Both Been Briefed that Vladimir Putin Is Interfering On Their Behalf In the 2020 Presidential Election

Unfortunately Senator Sanders was briefed on this information a month ago!

That’s a problem. Despite the briefing being classified there are ways to get ahead of these things and getting the information out, because eventually the information is going to leak out anyway. This information did, indeed, leak out. And it would not surprise me if the President didn’t leak it to try to distract from the reporting about the briefing he and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence received about Putin’s ongoing election interference. The specific problem here is that Senator Sanders knew, the President knew, and Vladimir Putin knew. The rest of us, however, did not know. We may have surmised based on what we know happened in 2016, but we did not know. And that means for the past month the President and Vladimir Putin have had leverage over Senator Sanders. I’m not suggesting that Senator Sanders is an agent of either one’s influence, but by sitting on the information for a month it provided both of them leverage that they could have used against him.

If there is one overarching lesson that we should all take away from what Putin did in 2016 and has been doing since 2016 is that when senior officials, or those seeking high office, refuse to be forthcoming about their activities, actions, and interests (personal, professional, business), it provides the other people that know about these activities, actions, and interests leverage over them. The problem in 2016 wasn’t that the President, as a candidate, was trying to do business in Russia. The problem was he kept lying about it over and over and over all while Putin and several of those around Putin knew the truth. Which provided Putin with leverage over the President. The same dynamic was also at play when Senator Sanders and his supporters demanded to see transcripts of Secretary Clinton’s speeches during the 2016 campaign because they wanted to know what she may or may not have said or promised to those who were paying her to give those talks. There was no indication she promised anyone anything, But the argument then was that it provided the interests paying for her to give a speech leverage on her above and beyond the speaker’s fee and expenses she was paid.

I know, you know, we all know that Senator Sanders is not a witting or unwitting asset of Putin’s. We know that Putin doesn’t actually want him to be president, Putin just wants him or his supporters to create chaos by ripping the Democratic Party apart* in order to achieve the strategic effect that Putin does want: having the President reelected to a second term. Because that strategic effect creates even more chaos, which increases the likelihood that Putin achieves his overarching strategic objective: weakening the US and with it the US created and backed post WW II international order; leaving Putin free to operate with impunity. Loose lips may sink ships, but in this case being forthcoming is the way to ensure operational security and dispel questions and doubts.

Open thread.

* I do not actually know what will happen if Senator Sanders wins the Democratic nomination for president. I would like to believe that we are all mature enough and realistic enough to recognize the threat to the Republic overrides our individual political preferences in a potential Democratic candidate. I would like to say I was sure this would be the case, but I cannot.

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What I Am Watching About The New Coronavirus

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There’s a lot being written about COVID-19, the new coronavirus, maybe too much in my opinion. There’s a lot that can be said about China’s political reaction to the virus, although even there we are at the beginning of things, and there’s a lot we don’t know.

I read a short and well-written article last night in Science magazine. It got me thinking about what I’m looking for in news about the virus. The mathematics of disease transmission are similar to the mathematics of chemical kinetics, which was part of my life as a chemist. That’s where my questions originate.

There is no evidence that the virus was generated as part of a biological warfare program. Its DNA has been sequenced, and there would be clues there if that were the case. It most likely originated in bats, as has been true for other coronaviruses, and was transmitted through another animal in a live-animal market. Tom Cotton lies; but we knew that.

We know very little of the parameters that are necessary to predict how widely the virus will spread or how dangerous it will be. Epidemiologists are collecting data, but the parameters depend on statistics that we need more of or time-consuming laboratory work that may be hard to carry out while treating sick people is the first priority.

  • How many cases are there? Some cases have been carefully diagnosed with appropriate laboratory tests. The reported number shot up during the past week when China loosened the criteria for reporting. Some people may be infected without symptoms or may have minimal sniffles and may not be counted. This website from Johns Hopkins gives confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries.
  • How contagious is the virus? This is represented by R0, the measure of how many people one person with the virus infects. We don’t know whether the virus is contagious before people show symptoms. We don’t know how long the incubation period is. R0 is derived from observations, so it is likely to change as more information comes in. I have seen a wide range of estimates for R0.
  • What happens to the virus as the seasons change? Some common cold viruses, including coronaviruses, become less infective as the weather warms in spring. But not all coronaviruses, and we just don’t know about this one.

Every day, there is more information available, but I doubt there will be a reliable R0 for some time. Each case can provide a bit of data – I particularly hope that good records are being kept on that cruise ship in Japan.

James Palmer is a good Twitter follow on the subject for the big picture. He’s lived in China.

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Destined for Failure Open Thread: No Peace in the Middle East *This* Year…

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When he puts the idiot son-in-law in charge, you know the boss has no interest in a workable solution…

JERUSALEM — The only immediate consequence of the Trump peace plan — and possibly all that will ever come of it — was the green light President Trump gave to Israel Tuesday to expand its territory by effectively annexing vast stretches of land it has long coveted on the West Bank.

On paper, the plan offers the Palestinians a state, at last, as well as a partial four-year settlement freeze while they mull it over.

But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not wait, saying that he would move Sunday to apply sovereignty over the strategically vital Jordan Valley and to all Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

The move would take in up to 30 percent of the occupied West Bank, and for the first time establish what Israeli leaders have coveted since capturing the territory in the 1967 Six Day War: a permanent eastern border for Israel along the Jordan River, recognized by the United States…

The green light from the White House outraged Israeli supporters of a more generous accommodation with the Palestinians and alarmed those who have warned that any annexation could set off renewed violence.

“It’s worse than any of us could anticipate,” said Nimrod Novik, a longtime peace negotiator and former aide to the Israeli leader Shimon Peres.

The Palestinians had no hand in the plan’s drafting, having cut all ties with the Trump administration after it recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. But while they reacted with predictable anger, there was no threat of specific action and little to suggest that their relationship with Israel would fundamentally change…

Much more detail at the link.

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