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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

The frogs are rarely mistaken.

So many bastards, so little time.

“Cheese and Kraken paired together for the appetizer trial.”

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

“Why isn’t this Snickers bar only a nickel?”

Shut up, hissy kitty!

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

Can we lighten up on the doomsday scenarios?

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

Consistently wrong since 2002

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

You cannot shame the shameless.

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You are here: Home / Archives for Foreign Affairs / Countries

Countries

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: Well, You’ve Got What You Asked for, Bibi…

by Anne Laurie|  May 8, 202410:42 pm| 75 Comments

This post is in: Israel, President Biden

🚨🚨🚨BREAKING: President Biden tells @ErinBurnett that if Israel invades the city of Rafah, the U.S. will stop supplying it with artillery shells, bombs for fighter jets and other offensive weapons

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 8, 2024

Biden tells CNN he won't send weapons to Israel if they launch a major invasion of Rafah. It's the first time he's publicly put conditions on aid.https://t.co/Xp5Z6aI2Qf

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) May 8, 2024

… “Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers,” Biden told CNN’s Erin Burnett in an exclusive interview on “Erin Burnett OutFront,” referring to 2,000-pound bombs that Biden paused shipments of last week.

“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem,” Biden said.

The president’s announcement that he was prepared to condition American weaponry on Israel’s actions amounts to a turning point in the seven-month conflict between Israel and Hamas. And his acknowledgement that American bombs had been used to kill civilians in Gaza was a stark recognition of the United States’ role in the war…

“We’re not walking away from Israel’s security. We’re walking away from Israel’s ability to wage war in those areas,” Biden said.

Biden said while the US would continue to provide defensive weapons to Israel, including for its Iron Dome air defense system, other shipments would end should a major ground invasion of Rafah begin…

Already, the US has paused a shipment of “high-payload munitions” due to Israel’s possible operations in Rafah without a plan for the civilians there, according to the Pentagon, though it said a final decision on that shipment hadn’t been made. The administration has said it is reviewing the potential sale or transfer of other munitions…

Josh Marshall, at TPM, on “Cutting the Spigot”:

What was first communicated by a slowdown in weapons transfers and then confirmed in leaks has now become public. Joe Biden is saying he will cut off the supply of heavy munitions (big bombs from the sky) if Israel goes ahead with a major ground in incursion into Rafah, the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip, which is both the last refuge of Hamas’s intact battalions and hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians who have fled other parts of the strip over the last six months. This is in addition to the city’s normal population.

I have seen some commentators who have absolutely no love for Netanyahu saying this undercuts whatever leverage Israel has in the hostage negotiations by depriving them of the threat to go into Rafah in force. There’s likely something to that. But it is basically a certainty that this move was absolutely the final straw with the US insisting and insisting and insisting not to do this without a plan to evacuate the city and the Israeli government saying too bad. We’re doing it. Biden had the choice to make his words meaningless or put down his foot. When you’re supplying the weapons your foot comes down very hard.

show full post on front page

Let me note that it’s not crazy to want to attack Hamas in its final hold out. Israel went into this war with the goal not of eroding but destroying Hamas’s military capability. That’s where they’re hold up. If you still want to destroy their military capacity you need to finish Hamas off there…

But let’s go back to a different point. The US doesn’t want another bloodbath in Rafah. The US has been making this very, very, very clear. Many people in the Israeli national security world think that needs to happen – if not today then at some point. But for the far right in Netanyahu’s government it’s a condition of not toppling the government. The US has its own views and its own interests. The Israeli government has been swaggering around saying, hey we’re sovereign, we’re nobody’s protectorate and we’ll do what we want … and also, please don’t cut off our supply of heavy ordinance otherwise our army will grind to a halt in a few days. Sorry, that’s not how it works.

If you want to fight the war with permanent resupply from the US, you’re probably going to have to take some input on how you approach things. If you don’t eventually you’re going to have something like this happen.

Of course, Biden’s getting exactly the thanks you’d expect for this, from the Very Serious Media as well as the social-media screamers on both ends of the horseshoe. If you think I’m exaggerating, search ‘Dearborn‘ on twitter…

U.S. ambassador to Israel explains Biden's position to a leading Haredi rabbi:

“It’s not easy because it’s a very hard war and it’s not a very popular war in the United States—very unpopular.”

Not true, but revealing.https://t.co/WzthG2bOnf

— Elliot Kaufman (@ElliotKaufman6) May 8, 2024

Why the US paused the delivery of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel ahead of a possible Rafah attack https://t.co/i1FfeLwC1o

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 8, 2024

… Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a Senate panel Wednesday that smaller, more precise weapons are needed for a densely populated area like Rafah.

Still, he made clear the decision wasn’t final.

“We’re going to continue to do what’s necessary to ensure that Israel has the means to defend itself,” Austin said. “But that said, we are currently reviewing some near-term security assistance shipments in the context of unfolding events in Rafah.”…

Israel said it was disappointed with the decision, suggesting it was done due to political pressure on President Joe Biden. Some defense experts said the move was largely symbolic but could signal more trouble ahead in the relationship between the U.S. and Israel.

“It’s some kind of diplomatic message to (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu that he needs to take into consideration American interests more than he has over the last few months,” said Itamar Yaar, former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council. “At least for now it will not impact Israeli capability but it’s some kind of a signal, a ‘be careful.’”…

Further indicator, to my jaded eyes, that Biden made a good choice:

We stand by allies, we don’t second guess them. Biden’s dithering on Israel weapons is bad policy and a terrible message to Israel, our allies, and the world.

— Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) May 8, 2024

ETA: Mike Pompeo, there’s a name we hadn’t heard in a while…

Probably not great that that GOP has open contempt for this country. https://t.co/MJtCvl17RR

— Jean-Michel Connard 좆됐어 (@torriangray) May 8, 2024

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: Well, You’ve Got What You Asked for, Bibi…Post + Comments (75)

War for Ukraine Day 805: Russia Steps Up Its Attacks on Kharkiv, Sumy, & Other Parts of Ukraine While Threatening Invasions of Kharkiv & Sumy

by Adam L Silverman|  May 8, 20248:40 pm| 18 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, everyone is, as always, most welcome. The past several days have been very busy and long, so tonight’s update will also be briefer and, once I hit publish, I’m basically going offline to rack out. Second, Rosie is so far tolerating her third chemo treatment well. I appreciate all the good thoughts, well wishes, and prayers.

As I begin drafting tonight’s update – 7:55 PM EDT – the only air raid alerts up are for Kharkiv and the ones that are always up for Luhansk and Crimea. The air raid alert for Mykolaiv Oblast has just been taken down.

On the night of May 8, 2024, russian invaders attacked Ukraine with 55 missiles and 21 Shahed UAVs.

russian attack targeted infrastructure in Lviv, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.

Ukrainian defenders shot down 59 aerial targets:… pic.twitter.com/oeBtQwyGJ7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 8, 2024

On the night of May 8, 2024, russian invaders attacked Ukraine with 55 missiles and 21 Shahed UAVs.

russian attack targeted infrastructure in Lviv, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.

Ukrainian defenders shot down 59 aerial targets:
◾️33 Kh-101 cruise missiles
◾️4 Kalibr cruise missiles
◾️2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
◾️20 Shahed UAVs

On a day meant for remembrance, Ukraine was hit by a severe missile and drone attack. The world must unite to prevent the rise of new Nazism.

russia carried out massive #attacks on Ukraine's #energy infrastructure early on Tuesday, using missiles to inflict severe damage on DTEK facilities. Three of DTEK's six thermal power plants in #Ukraine were struck in a new wave of russian attacks, seriously damaging equipment on… pic.twitter.com/rRdXwYqv4s

— DTEK Group (@dtek_en) May 8, 2024

russia carried out massive #attacks on Ukraine’s #energy infrastructure early on Tuesday, using missiles to inflict severe damage on DTEK facilities. Three of DTEK’s six thermal power plants in #Ukraine were struck in a new wave of russian attacks, seriously damaging equipment on which millions of Ukrainians depend.

#StandWithUkraine #FightForLight

 

Seven civilians, including four children, were wounded as russian troops attacked Kharkiv, targeting a soccer field where children were playing. Two teenage boys are in serious condition. pic.twitter.com/wAdFu7A6l7

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 8, 2024

Kids playing football in their schoolyard, shut down for over two years since Russia invaded. One boy lost his leg in the attack. Russian supporters, was he on your hit list too? pic.twitter.com/apVtf6ty4o

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 8, 2024

Russian sabotage group makes yet another attempt to infiltrate to the north of Kharkiv. Meanwhile, 35,000 Russian troops gather, testing Ukrainian defenses. Similar tactics seen on the Sumy border, with relentless attacks around Kupiansk. pic.twitter.com/I1MCYPreqU

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 8, 2024

There has been non-stop reporting about a potential 🇷🇺 offensive targeting Kharkiv, which has overwhelmed me with stress to the point where I can't function normally. If local authorities don't warn residents in time to evacuate, Kharkiv could face a disaster similar to Mariupol.

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 8, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Our Positions at the Front, the Physical Protection of Our People and Communities, and the Disruption of Any Attempts at Russian Offensive Are Urgent Priorities – Address by the President

8 May 2024 – 21:47

Dear Ukrainians!

A few important points for today.

First of all, I am grateful to all those who have been eliminating the consequences of the Russian Nazis’ attack in various regions of Ukraine today – Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kirovohrad. This is how the Kremlin marks the end of World War II in Europe – with a massive attack, with its attempts to break the lives of our people, with its Nazism. Almost sixty Russian missiles and more than twenty “Shaheds” were launched in just one day. It was a deliberate, combined strike against our energy system – against power generation, hydroelectric dam, gas infrastructure. We managed to shoot down some of the missiles and most of the “Shaheds.” I thank each of our partners whose air defense systems were effective today. However, not all Russian missiles were shot down. Unfortunately. There were hits, and the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, power engineers, involved services and enterprises are facing many challenges. I am grateful to everyone who is working one hundred percent to increase the percentage of energy generation.

I would also like to personally thank the rescuers who have proved themselves effective and committed to eliminating the consequences of the Russian strikes today and in general at this time. Zaporizhzhia region – Oleksandr Antipov, Serhiy Sydorenko, Mykola Sereda – employees of state fire and rescue units. Thank you! Lviv region – Ihor Veretelnyk, Oleksandr Voitovych, Viktor Kapustiak. Thank you! Poltava region – Oleksandr Kit, Oleksandr Baiva, Yevhen Kibalnyk. Thank you! Vinnytsia region – Oleh Kostiuk, Dmytro Palamarchuk and Volodymyr Khudchenko. Ivano-Frankivsk region – Artur Vasiutiak, Oleh Shastkiv and Ruslan Kryklyvyi. I am grateful to you guys and all your colleagues – the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, all the people whose job is to always give life hope, always help, under any circumstances.

Today, I continued negotiations with the leaders who can help us – Ukraine – and our entire Europe to bring a just peace and real, lasting security closer. We continue preparations for the first Global Peace Summit, which will be held in Switzerland and should become a truly effective peace-building platform. Today I personally invited the leaders of Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Hungary, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the Secretary General of the Council of Europe to the Summit. It is very important that we maintain dialogue with all leaders, and we actually share a common goal with all of them – to restore genuine tranquility to international relations and guarantee justice to every nation – guarantee that they will not be destroyed. Only in cooperation can the world ensure this. And I thank every leader, every state that has already confirmed their participation in the Peace Summit. We are working to make sure that everyone else understands us and joins in as well. Everyone who helps will feel the gratitude of history.

Of course, we also discussed our bilateral cooperation today. Denmark – we discussed the strengthening of our air defense and the implementation of defense agreements. The Netherlands – we discussed with Mark, Mr. Prime Minister, the search for additional Patriot systems. Hungary – a good conversation, long, with many details. Bilateral cooperation, the situation in the region. We agreed to work together further, based on the efforts of our teams. Germany – we discussed the restoration and protection of our energy sector, the preparation of a recovery conference in Berlin. Saudi Arabia – we discussed with the Crown Prince our bilateral cooperation and global affairs – ways to actually bring peace closer.

And one more thing.

Today, there was a separate report by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine and a report by the Commander-in-Chief. Our positions at the front, the physical protection of our people and communities, and the disruption of any attempts at Russian offensive are urgent priorities. I am grateful to each of our warriors whose courage and resilience make all this possible. To everyone in the Ukrainian Defense Forces – in our combat brigades, in all units involved, in the Air Defense Forces, in the Air Force, in the security forces. Everyone who is now on the frontline, who defends Ukraine on the ground, in the sky and at sea, gives our state the opportunity to gain a prospect for Ukrainians – for our independence, for our diplomacy, for our lives. Glory to all our warriors! Glory to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Today is Victory in (WW II in) Europe day.

May 8
Unity overcomes evil. pic.twitter.com/wF3LBq2LKi

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 8, 2024

On May 8, we mark the Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism in the Second World War.

Today, we honor the millions of Ukrainians who bravely fought and sacrificed their lives to defeat this evil.
Today, a new evil has emerged, threatening Europe's peace and stability.

The… pic.twitter.com/uOV9jb7Ks7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 8, 2024

 

On May 8, we mark the Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism in the Second World War.

Today, we honor the millions of Ukrainians who bravely fought and sacrificed their lives to defeat this evil.
Today, a new evil has emerged, threatening Europe’s peace and stability.

The new coalition of nations must now demonstrate its solidarity and resolve to make sure the new Nazism suffers defeat.

Tomorrow, 9 May, Russia will celebrate Victory Day as part of their fetishization of Russia’s and the Soviet Union’s accomplishments in WW II. I expect that the assault on Ukrainian civilians and civilian targets over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Yep, it’s always “Never Again” and all every year on May 8, poppies and speeches — up until the thing that should have never happened again actually happens — then it’s suddenly “Escalation Management”, “Don’t Provoke Putin”, “I Don’t Support Russia But…”, “They Have Nukes, You…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

Yep, it’s always “Never Again” and all every year on May 8, poppies and speeches — up until the thing that should have never happened again actually happens — then it’s suddenly “Escalation Management”, “Don’t Provoke Putin”, “I Don’t Support Russia But…”, “They Have Nukes, You Know”, “Surrender For Peace Now”, “Pay For Your Own War”, “It’s All Your Fault”, “You Can’t Target Russian Territory” etc etc etc.

Go figure.

The cost:

pic.twitter.com/as13RUF2Ux

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

Remember this picture of a woodland battlefield in east Ukraine that went viral last month?

The author, Denys Zeleny, a non-commissioned officer with Ukraine’s National Guards, has been killed in action….

In civilian life, he used to work as a manager at a confectionary chain called Honey.

 

In this photograph that I took in early April 2024 is Serhii, an infantryman at the moment he was waiting to go to the frontline

Shortly afterwards, the photo was published on the front page of Liberation, but Serhii would never see it. He was killed in action later that month. pic.twitter.com/BYl7INq9AT

— Roman Pilipey (@RomanPilipey) May 8, 2024

This is a future we should make every effort to prevent:

What if Ukraine is forced to surrender to Russia? What happens next? What kind of global security environment would there be?

This video was made by Mykhailo Dankanych, a former TV producer who is currently serving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. pic.twitter.com/SvIZ0aAEoc

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

Britain:

Russian channels taking credit for the UK database hack that currently has frozen the country's airports. pic.twitter.com/w5ARLNvRQ1

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) May 7, 2024

Taps the sign: It’s a world war!

The UK government says it will expel Russia's defense attaché for being an undeclared military spy, strip diplomatic status from properties in the UK that it believes are used by Russia to gather intelligence & cap the length of Russian diplomatic visas. https://t.co/EDVXIIgHFD pic.twitter.com/mgHMy0oY8r

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 8, 2024

Brussels:

Brussels agrees to send €3bn from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine https://t.co/8W23xbzCBu

— Massoud Maalouf (@Massoudmaalouf) May 8, 2024

From Euronews:

EU diplomats agreed Wednesday to use income from frozen Russian state assets to aid Ukraine – paving the way for the war-torn country to get around €3 bn for arms purchases and reconstruction before the summer.

Since the full-scale invasion of 2022, €210 billion in assets of the Moscow central bank have sat frozen within the bloc – chiefly at the Euroclear depositary in Belgium.

The deal was agreed “in principle” at a regular meeting of national representatives, according to a tweet by Belgium, currently chairing talks in the European Council.

Brussels has long touted using the interest from those funds, estimated at around €3bn per year, for Ukraine’s reconstruction costs – and later extended its plans to cover Kyiv’s military expenditure.

The plan – which also has backing from the group of seven leading industrialised democracies – comes as Ukraine hopes to turn the tide in an increasingly desperate military campaign, bolstered by €89bn recently agreed by the US Congress.

But Ukrainian ministers have said Brussels needs to go further than merely scooping up interest payments – and fully confiscate Moscow’s assets to ensure the aggressor pays for the cost of war.

Officials from EU countries and the European Central Bank have expressed concerns that seizing assets outright might set an unhelpful precedent or harm the euro’s reputation as a safe currency.

I welcome today's political agreement on our proposal to use the proceeds from immobilised Russian assets for Ukraine.

There could be no stronger symbol and no greater use for that money than to make Ukraine and all of Europe a safer place to live. https://t.co/zGQMVAKAMt

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) May 8, 2024

Talks were also held up by concerns over how many of the assets would be retained by Euroclear as an administration fee, a figure that was originally as high as 13%, as well as Belgium’s right to tax the profits gained by the Brussels-based securities depository.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has already promised to send some €1.5bn directly to Ukraine, though that appears to be a result of applying existing corporate tax law to the unexpected windfall Euroclear gains by having frozen central bank assets on its books.

The final deal allows Euroclear to keep a provisional buffer worth 10% of the profits, in case of litigation over the funds. It can also keep 0.3% as an incentive, while 90% of the funds will be sent via the European Peace Facility to help Ukraine buy weapons.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested Ukraine could receive the first funds under the mechanism by July – but the calculation will be backdated to February, when Euroclear formally segregated the assets.

Ambassadors today also formally agreed on the reforms Ukraine will have to make to receive funds from a separate €50bn facility of EU grants and loans.

 

 

This is very interesting – and very important to make clear.

"Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are now doing what the sanctions regime has not."https://t.co/C1386qyzNE

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

From Foreign Affairs:

On January 19, a Ukrainian drone struck an oil depot in the town of Klintsy, in Russia’s western Bryansk region, setting four gasoline tanks on fire and igniting some 1.6 million gallons of oil. Later that week, another strike lit a fire at Rosneft’s oil refinery in Tuapse, a Russian city some 600 miles from Ukrainian-held territory. In March, Ukrainian drones hit four Russian refineries in two days. April began with a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery, located deep in the region of Tatarstan, around 800 miles away. The month ended with strikes on facilities in two more Russian cities, Smolensk and Ryazan.

In all, Ukraine has launched at least 20 strikes on Russian refineries since October. Ukrainian security officials have indicated that the attacks’ objectives are to cut off fuel supplies to the Russian military and slash the export revenues that the Kremlin uses to fund its war effort. By the end of March, Ukraine had destroyed around 14 percent of Russia’s oil-refining capacity and forced the Russian government to introduce a six-month ban on gasoline exports. One of the world’s largest oil producers is now importing petrol.

But the Biden administration has criticized the attacks. In February, Vice President Kamala Harris urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to refrain from targeting Russian oil refineries out of concern that the strikes would drive up global oil prices. Echoing that sentiment, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned the Senate Armed Services Committee in mid-April that the “attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation.” Instead of striking oil infrastructure, Austin told the committee, “Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”

Washington’s criticism is misplaced: attacks on oil refineries will not have the effect on global energy markets that U.S. officials fear. These s​trikes reduce Russia’s ability to turn its oil into usable products; they do not affect the volume of oil it can extract or export. In fact, with less domestic refining capacity, Russia will be forced to export more of its crude oil, not less, pushing global prices down rather than up. Indeed, Russian firms have already started selling more unrefined oil overseas. As long as they remain restricted to Russian refineries, the attacks are unlikely to raise the price of oil for Western consumers.

Yet they can still inflict pain inside Russia, where the price of refined oil products, such as gasoline and diesel, has begun to surge. The strikes are achieving the very objectives that Ukraine’s Western partners set but largely failed to meet through sanctions and a price cap on Russian oil: to degrade Russia’s financial and logistical ability to wage war while limiting broader damage to the global economy. Kyiv must take wins where it can, and a campaign to destroy Russia’s oil-refining capacity brings benefits to Ukraine with limited risk.

Ukraine has so far concentrated its attacks on Russian oil refineries, not oil fields or crude oil export infrastructure. The distinction is important. After oil is extracted from a well, it is transported through pipelines and other infrastructure to refineries, where it is converted into products to be distributed to end users. In 2023, Russia extracted an estimated 10.1 million barrels of oil per day. Of this, around 50 percent was exported to refineries abroad, and the remaining 50 percent was refined domestically, creating products such as gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, and chemical feedstocks. Half these refined products were consumed domestically, with a substantial proportion diverted to fuel the Russian war machine. Russia also sells refined oil products abroad—the country was responsible for around ten percent of the world’s seaborne exports in 2023—but most Western countries have already stopped importing refined Russian fuel. The top destinations for Russia’s refined oil products are Turkey, China, and Brazil, though Russia has also been selling fuel to North Korea, in violation of UN sanctions, in exchange for munitions.

The Ukrainian strikes have dealt a significant blow to Russia’s refining capacity, knocking out up to 900,000 barrels per day. Repairs will be slow and expensive, in part because refinery stacks—where oil is distilled into its constituent parts—are huge and complex pieces of equipment that take years to design and build, and in part because Western sanctions are hampering Russian firms’ access to specialized components.

Russia’s oil storage capacity is limited. When a refinery is destroyed or damaged, therefore, extracted crude oil cannot simply be stocked for later use. This leaves Russian producers with just two options: increasing exports of crude oil or shutting wells and reducing production.

Data from recent months confirm that, as expected, Russia is exporting more crude oil at the same time that its refined fuel exports have hit near-historic lows. Moscow exported just over 712,000 tons of diesel and other petroleum products in the last week of April, a drop from more than 844,000 tons in the same week in 2023. Monthly exports of crude oil, however, increased by nine percent from February to March, reaching their highest level in nine months and their third highest since Western sanctions on Russian crude oil took effect in December 2022. The strikes have had no discernible effect on international crude oil prices, which remained stable until the end of March, when Russia cut its output under a preexisting agreement with OPEC.

Western markets may not be hurting, but Russia is feeling the pinch. Since the Ukrainian strikes began, diesel production has fallen by 16 percent and gasoline production by nine percent. The average weekly wholesale price of gasoline and diesel in western Russia rose by 23 percent and 47 percent, respectively, between the end of 2023 and mid-March. In April, the cost of gasoline hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year. Russia imported 3,000 tons of fuel from Belarus in the first half of March—up from zero in January—and the Kremlin has been forced to ask Kazakhstan to ready 100,000 tons of gasoline for supply in case of shortages.

Ukraine’s campaign is working. It is inflicting pain on Russian energy markets, and it is putting exactly the kind of pressure on Moscow that the U.S.-led sanctions regime was designed for but has had limited success in delivering.

In the early months of the war, the Biden administration assembled a coalition of countries to impose economic penalties on Russia, including a price cap on Russian crude oil exports. The idea behind the price cap was to set it high enough that Russia would keep oil flowing, helping avoid a global recession, but low enough to depress Russia’s export earnings. In practice, inconsistent enforcement and monitoring have undermined the price cap’s effectiveness: Russia’s federal revenues hit a record $320 billion in 2023. The price cap may also have been set too high. A recent assessment by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Finnish think tank, determined that a lower rate could have slashed Russia’s oil export revenues by 25 percent between December 2022 and March 2024 without pushing Russian companies to shut off the taps. The EU and G-7 shipping industry, meanwhile, is still deeply entwined with Russia’s exports. In March this year, 46 percent of Russian oil shipments were carried on ships owned or insured in G-7 and EU countries, and some Western tankers have continued to transport oil priced above the cap.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are now doing what the sanctions regime has not. Without compromising global energy supply or driving up prices, the attacks are eating into Russian revenues and curtailing Russia’s ability to turn crude oil into the kinds of fuel that tanks and planes need to run. As long as Ukrainian forces avoid hitting crude oil pipelines or major crude oil export terminals, they can maintain this balance.

The current strategy comes with limited risks. Ukrainian drones have generally been hitting their targets at night, causing few, if any, civilian casualties. As long as Ukraine continues to weigh potential harms to noncombatants every time it approves a strike, it should stay on the right side of international law. Targeting an industry that directly contributes to Russian military power is a reasonable wartime measure—one that past belligerents, such as the United States, have employed before, including in its recent operations against the Islamic State.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries also seem unlikely to widen the conflict. At the very least, Russia will struggle to escalate in kind, given its long-running and far broader campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure: its forces destroyed Ukraine’s Kremenchuk oil refinery within weeks of the 2022 invasion, and the Ukrainian energy minister has said that Russian strikes earlier this year hit up to 80 percent of Ukraine’s conventional thermal power plants. Rather than threatening escalation in response to Ukraine’s strikes, the Kremlin has tended to play down their effects to avoid embarrassment.

To keep the risks low, the United States should neither help Ukraine proceed with these attacks nor even publicly encourage them. But nor should it try to dissuade Kyiv from this course of action. Despite the U.S. Congress’s recent approval of $61 billion in military aid, Ukraine is at its most fragile point in more than two years. Strikes on Russian refineries alone will not force Moscow to capitulate, but they do make the war more difficult and expensive for Russia—and so, if nothing else, when the time comes for negotiations, they may push the Kremlin to make concessions.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Destroyed Russian BUK air defence system equipment, presumably 9A39 of BUK-M1. As said:

“Due to a mistake made by the crew, the vehicle started to catch fire. Which led to the explosion of the loaded missiles. The crew was not injured. The exact date is unknown. Near Pology,… pic.twitter.com/BL1z9YXdod

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 8, 2024

Destroyed Russian BUK air defence system equipment, presumably 9A39 of BUK-M1. As said:

“Due to a mistake made by the crew, the vehicle started to catch fire. Which led to the explosion of the loaded missiles. The crew was not injured. The exact date is unknown. Near Pology, Zaporizhzhia region.”

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/52

In addition to the topic of Russian assaults on motorcycles. Detailed video of how the attack of two Russian motorcyclists took place. Zaporizhzhia Front. https://t.co/9uLQQYv0Fo https://t.co/nj7feEIPra pic.twitter.com/uhzpaJ2ICT

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 8, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

The battle between Bradley IFV of the 47th Brigade of Ukraine and Russian T-80 tank. T-80 was disabled by a TOW anti-tank missile fired by the Bradley crew. Avdiivka front. https://t.co/fmZ5xNZKry pic.twitter.com/sXK6bI9a7V

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 8, 2024

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

/1. Drone attack on Russian oil depot in the Krasnodar region is reported. Presumably in Yurovka village. There are multiple oil depots in the area, which of them was targeted is unclear. 300 from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/vfbR72wfFM

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 9, 2024

Just a brief update on what is going on in Georgia. From the Thread Reader App:

Things have been developing quickly over the past 2-3 weeks in Georgia, but in the last couple of days, they have progressed at an unimaginable speed. The ruling Georgian Dream party has employed various tactics targeting civil society, escalating to an extreme level. 1/6 
Exclusive know-how: 100s, if not 1000s, of people—activists, NGO reprs, media, and their families—are receiving calls from foreign cell numbers, with insults and threats. This is very likely a coordinated and centralized effort to sow fear and intimidate civil society. 2/6 
An increasing number of physical attacks on representatives of NGOs, media, and teachers, either in the streets or at their homes, have been reported. They are being attacked by so-called Titushky. 3/6

The ruling Georgian Dream party is not even waiting for the passage of the Russian-style foreign agents law, it’s already operational. Today, they announced the creation of a database (a kind of enemy/blacklist) where they will place all individuals undesirable to them. 4/6 
Following this statement, at least two Telegram channels were launched today that began leaking personal information, including the addresses and phone numbers of representatives of NGOs, media, activists, etc. 5/6 
There’s already massive terrorising happening in Georgia and the Russian copy-pasta Agents Law is not even passed yet. 6/6

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new tweets from Patron today, so here is some adjacent material.

New life on frontline pic.twitter.com/bHqURZKnXS

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024

Family pic.twitter.com/9SbzXPuWSa

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 22, 2024

The dog runs after the Ukrainian border guards who are going on a mission.
The dog Elsa is a friend of the 🇺🇦 border guards. pic.twitter.com/ZkBwPUYFn8

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 19, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Бажаю кожному знайти людину, поряд з якою вам буде всеодно на будь-який прогноз погоди❤️

♬ оригинальный звук – музикальний бункер

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I wish everyone to find a person with whom you don’t care about any weather forecast ❤️

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 805: Russia Steps Up Its Attacks on Kharkiv, Sumy, & Other Parts of Ukraine While Threatening Invasions of Kharkiv & SumyPost + Comments (18)

War for Ukraine Day 804 Again: It Is Not Ground Hog Day

by Adam L Silverman|  May 7, 20249:07 pm| 11 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Air Raid Alert map of Ukraine at 8:16 PM EDT on 7 MAY 2024. The map shows air raid alerts are active over all of eastern and central Ukraine. Only the western regions/oblasts are not under air raid alert.

(Air Raid Alert Map of Ukraine as of 8:16 PM EDT on 7 MAY 2024)

Two quick housekeeping notes. The first is today was exceedingly long, so tonight’s update is going to be on the shorter side. The second is that according to Steeplejack in last night’s comments, I apparently skipped from day 783 to 785 back in April. I’m not going back to check as I trust that he is correct. This is why tonight’s post is the second day 804 update in a row, which should get us back on track.

As you can see from the map above, 2/3rds of Ukraine is currently under air raid alert. Putin apparently decided to celebrate his inauguration by bombarding the Ukrainians once again. I would expect that this will continue for at least the next several days until we get past Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on the 9th of May.

I’m seeing unconfirmed reports of Shaheds over Sumy Oblast. We’ll have to wait for more credible reporting to know what is going on right now. However, we do know what has been thrown at the citizens of Sumy Oblast over the past 24 hours.

🤬 Russia attacked Sumy Oblast 224 times over past 24 hours: 1 person killed , 4 wounded https://t.co/KL6zpjbBxf

— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) May 7, 2024

From Ukrainska Pravda:

ussian troops launched 224 strikes on Sumy Oblast over the course of 6 May. One person was killed, and two young children and two adults were injured.

Source: Sumy Oblast Police

Details: Ten private buildings, three private households, six apartment buildings, eight vehicles, two grain elevator buildings, two administrative buildings, energy and critical infrastructure facilities, business premises, a shop and a warehouse were damaged as a result of the attack.

In addition, an outbuilding belonging to one company was destroyed, and a tank containing fuel and lubricants caught fire.

Investigators have instigated criminal proceedings over these events for violations of the laws and customs of war.

Background: Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported that the Russians attacked Krasnopilia hromada in Sumy Oblast with artillery on 6 May, injuring a man and two children.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We are Preparing Meetings and Documents That Will Definitely Make It Into the News in the Coming Weeks – Address by the President

7 May 2024 – 22:05

Dear Ukrainians!

A summary of this day. First, the frontline. The battles in the hottest spots. Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Kramatorsk, Lyman, Vremivka, Kupyansk directions. Today, as always, I communicated with the military and held a separate meeting with the Ministry of Defence regarding the manning of our brigades. We are doing everything we can to strengthen our warriors and give Ukraine more power in combat. I thank everyone in the world who is helping us. I am grateful to all the leaders who are really keeping their word and fulfilling what we agreed upon — all the supply packages of weapons and ammunition are extremely important for Ukraine now. This time is crucial for the whole year — in combat, in training, in supply. Any delay now — in weapons, ammunition or in manning our brigades — will cost too much for all those in the world who seek actual protection from Russia. And I thank every combat brigade of ours — all those who are fighting on the front line — and doing it effectively and bravely without surrendering their positions. Thank you for being here for Ukraine. And today, based on the results of the first days of the week, the warriors of the 55th Zaporizhzhia Sich separate artillery brigade deserve our special appreciation. Good job, guys! Your accuracy is always inspiring!

The second thing today is international negotiations.

We continue our marathon of preparations for the first Global Peace Summit, a Summit that can and should demonstrate the value of international cooperation and all the words about upholding the UN Charter and the rules-based international order — those words that have been heard during the years of this war. Every leader who will participate in the Summit, every leader who is now helping to organize the Summit, every state whose strength we are adding now to the joint force of human life protection will definitely prove their worth in this marathon — in the preparations of the Peace Summit. Today I spoke with the leaders of Spain, Belgium, Latvia, Finland and Cabo Verde. Step by step, we will establish a truly global community — every continent will be represented at our Summit in Switzerland, different nations — both geographically large and geographically smaller, those who have already clearly expressed their support for international law and the ones who are yet to do so. While Moscow is using the term “multipolarity” just hypocritically to cover its attempts to control the lives of other nations, we are creating a real tool for real multipolarity — we are inviting the world majority to the Peace Summit. And it is the majority that should have its say — it can bring a just peace closer.

And one more thing for today.

We are preparing meetings and documents that will definitely make it into the news in the coming weeks. New visits of our partners to Ukraine. New security agreements for our country and life in Europe in general. And of course, we continue to prepare for the actual start of talks with the European Union in June. From our side, the Ukrainian side, all the details will be one hundred percent worked out. Ukraine has fulfilled its obligations. And Ukraine expects the same level of engagement — productive engagement — from the partners.
I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine and everyone who supports us in an effective and timely manner! Because this means life. This means saving lives. I thank everyone who fights for our country and our people. And please always remember all those who sacrifice their lives in this battle — the battle for Ukraine and humanity. May the memory of each of our warriors, whose lives were lost in battle and became the life of our entire state, our Ukraine, be bright and eternal.

Glory to Ukraine!

The reason:

Love always wins!

Ukrainian serviceman meets his beloved at the Slovyansk railway station, Donetsk region.

📷: Wojciech Grzedzinski pic.twitter.com/UavCnTFyYR

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 7, 2024

The cost:

Today, two more Georgian fighters were killed in the battle against the Russians near Avdeevka.
May your souls be in light pic.twitter.com/kghCqhQrTT

— Georgian warrior in Ukraine🇬🇪(young)🇺🇦 (@giorgig31418111) May 7, 2024

One of the youngest Mariupol defenders, Nazarii Hryntsevych, call sign “Hrinka,” died defending Ukraine.

Nazarii was at Azovstal in 2022, was taken prisoner by Russia, and after his release, became the commander of a platoon of optical observers of the Contact 12 group.

On… https://t.co/VuxWYkl6F5 pic.twitter.com/mLNijCyB2E

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 7, 2024

One of the youngest Mariupol defenders, Nazarii Hryntsevych, call sign “Hrinka,” died defending Ukraine.

Nazarii was at Azovstal in 2022, was taken prisoner by Russia, and after his release, became the commander of a platoon of optical observers of the Contact 12 group.

On March 10, 2024, Nazarii turned 21.

Eternal memory and eternal glory to Ukrainian Hero.

We are losing our best people.

Estonia:

We are grateful for your support.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🇪🇪🇩🇰💪 https://t.co/1lJzynDV7s

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 7, 2024

Romania:

⚡️ President Iohannis: Romania open to discussing sending Patriot to Ukraine.

Romania is open to discussing the possibility of sending a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, the country's president said on May 7, Reuters reported.https://t.co/KdJXuBFFJl

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 7, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

Romania is open to discussing the possibility of sending a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, the country’s president said on May 7, Reuters reported.

Speaking in Washington after a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden, Klaus Iohannis said he would discuss the matter with his Supreme Defence Council.

This is the latest development from Western nations responding to calls from Kyiv for more air defenses in the face of escalating Russian missile and drone attacks on cities across Ukraine.

“There has been a discussion about who can send Patriot systems to Ukraine over the last few weeks,” Iohannis said.

“President Biden mentioned it… in our meeting, and I said I was open to discussion. I must discuss it in the Supreme Defence Council to see what we can offer and what we can get in return, because it is unacceptable to leave Romania without air defenses.”

Romania signed a deal in 2017 to obtain Patriot systems but so far only has one that is operational. Iohannis said any discussions would concern a system that was in an advanced stage of becoming operational.

More at the link!

Brussels:

 

From The Financial Times:

Brussels will propose a ban on Russian funding of political parties, non-governmental organisations and think-tanks as part of a fresh round of sanctions aimed at crippling Moscow’s ability to pursue its war against Ukraine and spread discord among European allies.

The proposal is part of the latest package of sanctions sent to member states by the European Commission for their approval, according to a confidential draft seen by the Financial Times.

The sanctions come as the bloc is under increasing pressure from Ukraine to boost its military support amid a heavy Russian offensive. Meanwhile, EU governments are trying to crack down on Russian disinformation campaigns ahead of European parliament elections in June.

Fears of Russian interference in the elections have increased following revelations about spying scandals and influence campaigns, particularly among far-right groups, in the past month.

“Propaganda and disinformation campaigns are capable of undermining the foundations of democratic societies and are an integral part of the arsenal of modern hybrid attacks,” the draft proposal said.

Prohibiting funding for those campaigns would protect EU citizens from “malign interference”, it said.

The proposals also call for a ban on four media outlets from broadcasting in Europe, the documents showed. Prague-based Voice of Europe, whose site has already been taken down by Czech authorities in an alleged Russian influence case targeting European lawmakers, as well as Russian outlets RIA Novosti, Izvestija and Rossiiskaja Gazeta are set to be added to the sanctions list, pending unanimous approval by EU member states.

The package of sanctions — the bloc’s 14th following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — is mostly “technical and not really substantial”, one EU diplomat said, demonstrating the increasing difficulty the bloc has had in finding consensus among member states.

“In our view [it’s] not a very strong package.”

More at the link.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaand my book on the Battle of Kyiv 2022 has been released.

Amazon Kindle, Hardcover, Audiobook.

I hope you will enjoy it – I sweated blood to describe the incredible spirit of those heroic days in Ukraine.https://t.co/BJThc805t7https://t.co/AANL7jJQEi

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 7, 2024

Kyiv:

The Security Service of Ukraine claimed that it foiled Russia's plot to assassinate Zelensky and other high-ranking officials; The government supported a draft decree by President Volodymyr Zelensky on unmanned systems armed forces branch; and more. https://t.co/zL3SP4WZ9B

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 7, 2024

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

The Security Service of Ukraine claimed on May 7 that it had uncovered a network of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) agents who were preparing the assassination of President Volodymyr Zelensky and other high-ranking officials in Ukraine.

Two colonels of Ukraine’s State Security Administration (UDO) accused of leaking classified information to Russia were reportedly detained.

In late November, Zelensky said in an interview with The Sun that he had survived at least five assassination attempts since the start of Russia’s full-scale war.

The FSB network aimed to find perpetrators among the military close to Zelensky’s security, “who could take the head of state hostage and then kill him,” according to the SBU.

The planned attack was supervised by Maxim Mishustin, Dmitry Perlin, and Alexey Kornev, wemployees of the FSB’s fifth service, according to the SBU.

“The terrorist attack, which was supposed to be a gift to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin for his inauguration, was actually a failure of the Russian Secret Service,” SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk said.

Other Russia’s targets reportedly included Maliuk and Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) head Kyrylo Budanov.

Budanov’s assassination was allegedly planned to be carried out before Orthodox Easter, celebrated on May 5. A Russian agent was supposed to track Budanov’s movements and pass the information to Russia, according to the SBU. One of the UDO colonels allegedly supplied the FSB agent with FPV (first-person-view) drones, warheads for portable launchers, and anti-personnel mines.

The plan reportedly was to hit a house where the HUR chief was supposed to be with a missile, and then attack the people remaining at the site with drones. Then there was supposed to be another missile strike to eliminate the evidence of a drone attack, the SBU said.

In early April, the SBU reported that a joint operation by Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement agencies led to the detention of a Polish citizen who allegedly offered to Russia to assassinate Zelensky.

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

/2. Oil depot is on fire in Luhansk after strikes
(48.5154499, 39.2994006) pic.twitter.com/tqJlopx1iy

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 7, 2024

/4. ATACMS missile debris in Luhansk. Plus additional video of the fire on the oil depot pic.twitter.com/cOABFUX9SC

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 7, 2024

⚡️Russian proxy claims missile strike on oil depot in occupied Luhansk.

An oil depot in occupied Luhansk was struck by ATACMS missiles, causing a mass fire at the facility, Moscow-installed head of the occupied region Leonid Pasechnik claimed on May 8. At least five employees…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 7, 2024

⚡️Russian proxy claims missile strike on oil depot in occupied Luhansk.

An oil depot in occupied Luhansk was struck by ATACMS missiles, causing a mass fire at the facility, Moscow-installed head of the occupied region Leonid Pasechnik claimed on May 8. At least five employees were reportedly injured and hospitalized.

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxy-claims-missile-strike-on-oil-depot-in-occupied-luhansk-injuring-5/

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

An oil depot in occupied Luhansk was struck by ATACMS missiles, causing a mass fire at the facility, the Moscow-installed head of the occupied region, Leonid Pasechnik, claimed on May 8. At least five employees were reportedly injured and hospitalized.

Pasechnik announced on Telegram at around 11:35 p.m. local time that the depot had been attacked and emergency response teams were working to contain the fire.

The Russian proxy later reported that five employees of the oil depot were injured and hospitalized, power lines were damaged, houses in the immediate area were partially de-energized, and a high-pressure gas pipeline was on fire.

“An overnight strike on an oil depot in Luhansk was allegedly carried out by Western-style ATACMS missiles,” Pasechnik claimed.

Ukrainian officials did not comment on the claims, which cannot be independently verified.

More at the link.

Chasiv Yar:

Ukraine's Kraken special forces unit released a video from embattled Chasiv Yar on May 7, showing ongoing fighting amid a devastated landscape but claiming there is currently not a single Russian soldier in the town itself.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 7, 2024

Here’s the video with the English subtitles on:

Machine translated description from below the video:

For a month now, the DIU’s KRAKEN active action unit has been defending the city, which has become one of the symbols of courage and resilience of the Ukrainian army.

The soldiers are heroically holding the defense, destroying numerous enemies every day, burning enemy armored vehicles and taking prisoners.

The enemy is trying to advance from different directions, but thanks to the unit’s well-coordinated work, there are no occupants in the city at the moment.

The usual work of modern Heroes.

Subscribe. We will show you more soon.

Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

⚡️ At least six people, including a six-year-old girl and a 91-year-old woman, have been injured during an intense day of Russian strikes in Nikopol, in the south-east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, authorities reported on May 7.https://t.co/eUaLlX0h32

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 7, 2024

The Kyiv Independent reports the butcher’s bill:

At least six people, including a six-year-old girl and a 91-year-old woman, have been injured during an intense day of Russian strikes in Nikopol, in the south-east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, authorities reported on May 7.

In a post on Telegram, Governor Serhii Lysak said 14 kamikaze drones and artillery struck the city and surrounding communities.

Initially, he reported four people had been injured – two women aged 91 and 50, and two men aged 37 and 40. One of the men was in a serious condition.

Ten houses, three garages, and several farm buildings were damaged.

In a later post, Lysak said the number of injured had risen to six, including the six-year-old girl.

Nikopol, situated on the banks of the mostly dried-up Kakhovka Reservoir, just across from Russian-occupied Enerhodar and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, is a regular target of Russian attacks.

Novomykhailivka:

For several weeks, Russians have been using assault tactics of infantry on motorcycles.

The idea behind this is that infantry on a motorcycle must quickly reach a position that needs to be taken and held. Counting on the fact that one infantryman on a motorcycle would be too… pic.twitter.com/QJ60WJzKib

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 7, 2024

For several weeks, Russians have been using assault tactics of infantry on motorcycles.

The idea behind this is that infantry on a motorcycle must quickly reach a position that needs to be taken and held. Counting on the fact that one infantryman on a motorcycle would be too small, fast and maneuverable target for Ukrainian forces to hit.

Video of the 79th brigade of Ukraine with the destruction of such Russian motorcycle units Video of the 79th brigade of Ukraine with the destruction of such Russian motorcycle units, Novomykhailivka front.

https://t.me/odshbr79/188

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets tonight so here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Share your coffee with your fluffy comrades.

📷: 241st @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/WuwoNcQpT3

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 7, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok.

@patron__dsns

👀👀👀 #bombasticsideeye #песпатрон

♬ Bombastic Side Eye Criminal Offensive Side Eye – CasaDi

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 804 Again: It Is Not Ground Hog DayPost + Comments (11)

War for Ukraine Day 804: Slow News Day, Huh?

by Adam L Silverman|  May 6, 20247:55 pm| 40 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Quick housekeeping note: It’s been a long day and most of the news, which has nothing to do with Ukraine, has been bad and it is going to get worse. So tonight’s update is going to be on the shorter side.

Today is Yom HaShoa, Holocaust Remembrance Day. This is different than the International Holocaust Remembrance Day, which is in January on the date of the beginning of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. Yom HaShoa is the week after the 7th day of Passover. Given what is happening in Israel and Gaza, this year’s Yom HaShoa is especially tragic and another example that far too many have learned the wrong lessons from the Holocaust and its aftermath.

There is a bit of good news. Rosie went to her oncology appointment today. The oncology vet did a pre-treatment exam, was pleased enough with her progress since she saw her last week to go ahead and do the chemo treatment today. The oncologist says she’s at 80% remission after two treatments and three weeks of the accompanying prednisone. To try to avoid the really bad side effects, Rosie got a low dose of today’s chemo. As I’ve written the oncology vet is treating Rosie as much as she’s treating the lymphoma.

The butcher’s bill from Russia’s Orthodox Easter attack on Kharkiv.

Russia targeted Monachynivka village near Kupyansk with a deadly 1.5-ton aerial bomb, leveling the whole street. It's the first time such weapons were used. Elderly woman killed. FAB was equipped with a gliding module allowing it to maneuver post-launch.@serhii_bolvinov pic.twitter.com/lqkQCtb9u5

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 6, 2024

Only yesterday, the once tranquil residence of an 88-year-old woman in the Kupiansk district of Kharkiv Oblast was reduced to ruins when russian troops dropped an air bomb. The house was destroyed, burying the woman beneath its rubble. pic.twitter.com/LSYTXT9dyT

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 6, 2024

And from Sumy Oblast:

⚡️ Russian troops shelled the village of Uhroidy in Sumy Oblast on May 6, injuring three people, including two children, Suspilne reported, citing Iryna Yukhta, a secretary of the Krasnopillia village council.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 6, 2024

An Ukrenergo high-voltage facility was among the civil infrastructure damaged in Russia's mass missile and drone attack on Sumy Oblast overnight on May 6.https://t.co/OMchupOaQw

— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) May 6, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Political Decisions Must Be Followed by Real Logistics – the Actual Receipt of Weapons by Our Warriors – Address by the President

6 May 2024 – 19:54

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I’ve just held a meeting of the Staff. First, the frontline. The report by the Commander-in-Chief – he was on the frontline, directly in the brigades. He reported on the key challenges and needs. We are getting ready. There was also a report on our own production of weapons and manning of our brigades. We are doing our best to provide more weapons for our warriors. We also discussed the supply from our partners – the delivery time and the possibility to speed up the actual receipt of weapons and shells from our partners. In reality. Political decisions must be followed by real logistics – the actual receipt of weapons by our warriors. All those involved must now work 24/7 with partners, including the United States.

Today I was honored to congratulate our infantry warriors on their professional day. This is the backbone of our Armed Forces of Ukraine – these are the units that, through their strength, actions, and resilience, determine whose flag is on the ground. And I thank each of our warriors and combat brigades for doing their best to destroy the enemy and defend Ukraine. Today, I have awarded the warriors who have proved themselves best in combat, and presented honorary awards and battle flags to the combat brigades. Thank you, warriors! I thank everyone who gives Ukraine the necessary frontline results and protects our country and people.

In the afternoon, I had several international conversations – we are now working very actively to prepare the inaugural Summit, the Peace Summit in Switzerland. It is important that as many states as possible, as many actors as possible who are interested in the full force of the UN Charter and international law, demonstrate their leadership at the Summit. Today, I’ve spoken with the Presidents of Lithuania and Poland, Gitanas Nausėda and Andrzej Duda, and the Prime Ministers of Estonia and Canada, Kaja Kallas and Justin Trudeau… I personally invited them to the Summit. I thanked them for supporting our work for a just peace – for supporting the Peace Formula. Such peace and the true restoration of tranquility in international relations are possible only if the world majority joins in the establishment of peace and forces Russia into peace, forces it to adhere to the basic rules of normal coexistence of nations. I am grateful to all the partners who help us implement this task. I am grateful to every leader who communicates with others to make sure that they also attend the Summit and have their say. Today’s world is a world of the majority, a world in which no one has or should have the privilege of imposing anything on other nations. Especially through violence. Everyone is equally important, and every nation equally deserves respect. This is what our Peace Formula is all about, it is beneficial to every nation, and the Peace Summit is an opportunity to show not just in words but in reality who really stands for equality in the world. Tomorrow and in the coming weeks, we will work and communicate with countries and leaders to ensure that international law is backed by international solidarity.

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who fights and works for life and justice to prevail!

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine does not recognize Vladimir Putin as a democratically elected and legitimate President of the Russian Federation.

🔗 Full MFA statement: https://t.co/HQfPCzswDy

— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) May 6, 2024

From Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

Statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on Vladimir Putin’s “inauguration”
06 May 2024 15:35

On May 7, Russia will hold a ceremony to install Vladimir Putin in office. In this way, the Russian authorities are attempting to give the entire world and its own citizens the illusion of legality for the nearly lifelong stay in power of a person who has turned the Russian Federation into an aggressor state and the ruling regime into a dictatorship.

During the so-called March “elections,” the Russian Federation violated numerous international documents that serve as the foundation for the modern system of international relations. In particular, the UN Charter, the Declaration on the Principles of International Law, the Geneva Convention on the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, and dozens of UN General Assembly resolutions.

The illegal organization of another so-called electoral process in the sovereign territories of Ukraine temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation—parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and the city of Sevastopol—accompanied by threats, blackmail, and coercion of millions of Ukrainian citizens who live in temporarily occupied territories or were forcibly relocated to the territory of the Russian Federation constituted a brutal violation of the generally recognized norms and principles of international law.

Despite warnings from authoritative international institutions, the Russian Federation’s actions once again demonstrate that its leadership does not recognize its responsibility and is unwilling to end the illegal, unprovoked, and unjustified full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine, which has lasted more than two years and resulted in numerous human casualties and destruction. The Kremlin regime, through propaganda and manipulation, uses voter participation and voting results to justify its military invasion of Ukraine and aggressive policies toward other countries.

Based on the foregoing and the International Criminal Court’s active arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, Ukraine sees no legal basis for recognizing him as the democratically elected and legitimate president of the Russian Federation.

Recent resolutions of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe dated April 17 No. 2540 (2024) and the European Parliament dated April 25 No. 2024/2665(RSP) confirm the ineligibility of holding so-called “elections” in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories, their undemocratic nature in Russia itself, and, in fact, refute the legitimacy of their results.

We call on foreign countries, international organizations, and the public to follow suit by not recognizing the results of these pseudo-elections or Russian dictator Vladimir Putin as a legitimate president, to resist the demolition of the system of the rule of law and universally recognized democratic values, as well as to continue effectively supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, which poses a threat to European and world security, peace, and stability.

The big news today is, of course, that Putin is once again rattling his nuclear saber in the attempt to further influence the US and its partners’ and allies’ decision making.

Vladimir Putin has ordered Russia's armed forces to hold drills with non-strategic nuclear weapons "in response to provocative statements and threats by certain western officials," the defense ministry says. https://t.co/nh1e8Iq62F

— max seddon (@maxseddon) May 6, 2024

Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, says the drills are a response to French president Emmanuel Macron's musings about sending Nato troops to Ukraine.

“This is a totally new level of escalating tensions. It is unprecedented, it demands special attention and special measures.” pic.twitter.com/Kzj6QkQC1n

— max seddon (@maxseddon) May 6, 2024

It is why the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did this:

Russian MFA: Any UK military sites in Ukraine or elsewhere could face retaliation if Ukraine uses British weapons in Russia. Seriously? What about all those Russian terrorist attacks and sabotage across Europe? Or do they just not count? pic.twitter.com/4dFFaP111p

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 6, 2024

Russia isn’t going to tactically use a nuke, nor is it going to strike a British military facility. All of this is part of Russia’s political warfare. It is part of the ongoing attempt to achieve Russia’s objectives for pennies on the dollar through the use of non-military, non-lethal, and non-kinetic operations using the elements of national power other than military power. Putin keeps doing this because so far every time he’s done so it works. He’ll continue doing it until the US and its allies and partners stop falling for it.

And he keeps doing it because despite all the disadvantages that the Ukrainians are fighting through, things like this are still happening:

/2. Regarding the Su-34 crash:

“Today there was a plane crash of a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

The crew died.

Crew members: Evgeny Kuznetsov and Vladimir Strelkov.

The plane belonged to the 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment of the 105th Mixed Aviation… pic.twitter.com/OFAJbnZtej

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024

 

/2. Regarding the Su-34 crash:

“Today there was a plane crash of a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

The crew died.

Crew members: Evgeny Kuznetsov and Vladimir Strelkov.

The plane belonged to the 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment of the 105th Mixed Aviation Division of the Russian Aerospace Forces (A/E Baltimore, Voronezh).

The fighter was performing a combat mission in the area of ​​the village. Valuyki, Belgorod region. Previously, the accident occurred due to engine failure.

The crew did not have time to eject.»

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/522

And while the above appears to be an accident or equipment failure, this is not:

/2. Satellite imagery after the attack on Russian boat https://t.co/78n2JdmrCr

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024

France:

First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

“In military terms, the SCALP is a real game changer.”

“Operation Chrysalis : how France is organising the supply of SCALP missiles to Ukraine.”@RFI reveals the 🇲🇫 method for supplying the 🇺🇦 armed forces with SCALP cruise missiles without touching its own strategic stocks.
🧵 pic.twitter.com/Qoav0HFYbk

— French Aid to Ukraine 🇨🇵🇺🇦 (@aidefranceukr) May 6, 2024

France has identified several batches of SCALP-EG cruise missiles stored in “cocoons” in its arsenals. A cocoon is a waterproof package used to protect and preserve equipment with a view to a possible return to service. 
Two types of stockpile emerged: old missiles that had reached the end of their life but were intact. 
On the other hand, cocoons containing missiles that were no longer used because they had been cannibalised: that is, a certain number of parts or components had been removed in order to keep others in working order. SCALPs used in @Armee_de_lair squadrons.Image
They must, therefore, return to the factories where they were assembled in France. More precisely, in Bourges, on one of the @MBDAGroup industrial sites where these machines were produced in the 2000s.Image
The plan is to upgrade the equipment over a three-month period, during which each missile will undergo a battery of tests. A simplified procedure, because 🇲🇫 is sure that SCALPs sent to 🇺🇦 will not be returned to storage but will be launched against 🇷🇺 targets within weeks. 
In addition to “Chrysalide”, which must be completed by the end of the year, the 🇲🇫 authorities are also looking elsewhere. They are looking for all types of ammunition: SCALPs, but also 155 mm shells for artillery and surface-to-air weapons to defend the Ukrainian skies.Image
There are also “export” versions of SCALP-EG missiles, and again, the main idea is to ensure that those that reach the end of their life, or that could be sold, are used by Ukraine. This idea has been circulating since the beginning of the year.Image
Some customers in the 🇲🇫 defence industry have ordered large quantities of the SCALPs in a slightly different version to that fitted to 🇲🇫 squadrons. ⤵️ 
However, a source close to the manufacturer told @RFI that these versions can not be programmed using 🇲🇫 computers. These missiles will, therefore, have to be adapted to be compatible with the mission preparation system provided by the @Elysee. 
Discretion is required on this sensitive issue, but it’s likely that these “export” missiles, if sold, will undergo some modifications on the assembly lines to make them usable by 🇺🇦. The scope of these SCALPs “exports” is somewhat smaller, and some software is different. 
The first units were delivered to Ukraine in the second half of 2023. In August, @ZelenskyyUa inaugurated a SCALP-EG cruise missile by writing “Glory to Ukraine” on the sides of the weapon.Image
The first shot targeted a 🇷🇺 command centre in the Luhansk oblast, which until then had been out of range of the Ukrainian arsenal. But it was the SCALPs, with “a range of 300 kilometres”, that were the architects of the victory in the Black Sea.Image
On 12 September, a large-scale missile attack destroyed two ships dry-docked in the port of Sevastopol, a large landing ship and a Kilo-class submarine, the Rostov on Don.Image
On 22 September 2023, a salvo of missiles penetrated 🇷🇺 surface-to-air defences and struck the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, again at the Sevastopol naval base, injuring and killing senior officers.Image
On 4 November 2023, the Kerch shipyard suffered a massive attack by around ten missiles, damaging a 🇷🇺 warship armed with Kalibr cruise missiles.Image
SCALP-EG cruise missiles helped push the 🇷🇺 fleet back to the easternmost part of the Black Sea. A victory that allowed 🇺🇦 to protect the port of Odessa and secure a naval corridor along its coasts, allowing the export of grain.

«Opération Chrysalide»: comment la France organise la livraison de missiles Scalp à l’UkraineAlors que l’Ukraine, en difficulté, appelle le camp occidental à lui fournir un maximum d’armes pour freiner l’avancée russe, RFI révèle la méthode française pour alimenter les forces ukrainiennes en…https://www.rfi.fr/fr/europe/20240506-op%C3%A9ration-chrysalide-comment-la-france-organise-la-livraison-de-missiles-scalp-%C3%A0-l-ukraine
TL;DR: 🇷🇺 troops and fleets are being harassed by obsolete French cruise missiles that have been recycled. War ecology. 
@MBDAGroup *missiles not machines 
Now that I think about it : our friend @SebLecornu sent 40 SCALPs to @MBDAFrance to be recycled.Image

dsas

Oh god, my book on the Battle of Kyiv will finally be out tomorrow, May 7.

It's been months of hard work with @BloomsburyPub… and it now feels so great to see that it's already a bestseller on Amazon, both as a hardcover book and a Kindle version.

I really put my heart into… pic.twitter.com/shPxhbShVT

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 6, 2024

Oh god, my book on the Battle of Kyiv will finally be out tomorrow, May 7.

It’s been months of hard work with @BloomsburyPub… and it now feels so great to see that it’s already a bestseller on Amazon, both as a hardcover book and a Kindle version.

I really put my heart into this.

“I Will Show You How It Was is Illia Ponomarenko’s heart-wrenching memoir of the war on his homeland, offering a fiery diatribe against Russian hypocrisy and a moving look at what is being lost.

But it’s also a story of pride and even elation as Ukrainian forces come together, find their mojo, and oust the invaders from Kyiv.

The most powerful and personal chronicle of the war to date, I Will Show You How It Was is an exceptional literary achievement, chronicling a stunning feat of resistance and a courageous people set on a miraculous victory.” – Amazon
https://amazon.com/Will-Show-You-How-Was/dp/1639733876/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1704027900&sr=8-1

Russian occupied Crimea:

2/4 In August 2023, Sea Baby attacked the Crimean Bridge. And the attack was effective: here are before and after satellite images.

Before drones struck, 40 trains carried weapons and ammunition daily. Now – there are only 4 to 5 passenger transportation and general cargo. pic.twitter.com/oGLaolP3Pp

— Molfar (@molfar_agency) May 6, 2024

4/4 But 🇷🇺 has found an alternative for transporting military cargo through the occupied territories:
– railway
– highway — accounts for up to half the freight traffic, almost as much as the Crimean Bridge.

These routes are a more significant threat:https://t.co/n9FEHTiNpE pic.twitter.com/TaRm8AeX03

— Molfar (@molfar_agency) May 6, 2024

GeoConfirmed UKR.

Did Ukraine target an Iskander site using ATACMS on May 4th as suggested?

We have confirmation through satellite imagery that at the selected site, -what seems to be- Iskander launchers and other vehicles were present in significant numbers (over 10) a few… https://t.co/XpreXkdwwo pic.twitter.com/BSIl6ZsZ1K

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) May 6, 2024

GeoConfirmed UKR.

Did Ukraine target an Iskander site using ATACMS on May 4th as suggested?

We have confirmation through satellite imagery that at the selected site, -what seems to be- Iskander launchers and other vehicles were present in significant numbers (over 10) a few days before the reported strike. Unfortunately, we cannot share the satellite imagery due to copyright restrictions.

Sentinel satellite imagery from April 15th to May 5th shows vehicle movements. (marked in red squares).
This imagery also captured the result of fires erupting at different locations within the site.

Key facts:

Pre-Strike Evidence: The site was identified as an Iskander launch site with over 10 vehicles present a few days before May 4th.

Fires on May 4th: Fires were observed at different locations within the site on May 4th, by FIRMS.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1786687702802268230

Aftermath of the fires was visible on May 5th by Sentinal. (See below)

Claims: 4 ATACMS were shot down during the night (Source: Russian Ministry of Defense) https://t.me/mod_russia/38237

Insinuation that vehicles were damaged/destroyed. (Source: Ukrainian channel).
https://t.me/tivaz_artillery/3822

Given the timing, the Russian MOD’s announcement, and the history of the site, the evidence strongly points to the fires being the result of an ATACMS strike, rather than a random or accidental occurrence.

The damage or destruction of vehicles requires further investigation following the emergence of new footage.

[Repost because of a translation error in previous one]

Bilhorivka:

Destroyed Russian AFV column. Bilohorivka front. 2xBMP-1; 1xT-72Bhttps://t.co/JHnSJ8XyZw pic.twitter.com/h3U4XqeRmX

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024

Sumy Oblast:

♥️💥In Sumy Oblast, after border guards shot down a russian UAV, a heart of fire formed in the night sky. pic.twitter.com/GR3tq0jrba

— Iryna Buczkowski🇺🇦🇺🇸Їрина (@IrynaBuczkowski) May 6, 2024

 

For you drone and missile enthusiasts.

Russian sources claim that they’ve seen a Ukrainian naval drones with installed air to air missiles: P-60 and P-73. pic.twitter.com/t6JjGK72f4

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024

/3. Russian Ka-29 helicopter destroys one of Ukrainian naval drones that took part in todays attack on Crimea. Objects which look like air to air missile La can be seen installed on the drone. pic.twitter.com/Ts5TDVdUBE

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024

/5. Air to air missile is R-73.
General characteristics of the missile:

Mass: 105 kilograms
Maximum speed: Mach 2.5
Operational range: R-73A, R-73E – 30 kilometres; R-73M – 40 kilometres pic.twitter.com/f7wioIJLE1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 6, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Читачі з України можуть скористатись посиланням на монобанку. Дякую ❤️https://t.co/yprsTl8YHY

— Patron (@PatronDsns) May 6, 2024

I want to introduce my friends and colleagues: sappers from Khmelnytskyi, Olexander Tsaruk, and Olexander Kmet. While on duty, their work car was blown up by an enemy mine. I don’t want to shock you, but only the car’s chassis remains. They miraculously survived. And they need another miracle to live fully again and work for the good of the country. Olexander Tsaruk is the chief pyrotechnician of Khmelnytskyi. As soon as Chernihiv was de-occupied, they were among the first to come to our aid. Because a brother stands by a brother. Right now, he is fighting for his life, with no organ left undamaged 😞 The situation is terrible, but we believe that we will hear from him and see him again. Olexander Kmet is a driver-sapper. Thanks to all the higher powers, his injuries are not life-threatening, but he needs a lot of strength and our help to leave the hospital as well. Today, I transferred $2,500 each from our fund to their treatment. However, the doctors consulting us say full recovery, surgeries, and the best available medications will cost much more. We need to raise $25,000, and I ask for your help.
My PayPal is [email protected] (also you can use the link below).

Thanks in advance, lick👅

https://paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=279APN5ES74GE

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 804: Slow News Day, Huh?Post + Comments (40)

War for Ukraine Day 803: Russia Bombards Continues Its Bombardment of Ukraine Despite the Holy Day

by Adam L Silverman|  May 5, 20246:27 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War in Ukraine

A painting by Ukrainian artis NEIVANMADE. The background is white. In the center, which is black with blood red bordering, is an hourglass. Inside the hourglass is a Ukrainian Azovstal POW painted in blood red. He is shirtless. His arms are upward along the outer edges of the upper half of the hourglass forming a saltire cross. He is chained with steel gray chains shackled to his wrists. Above his head, in grey, is written "Ruzzian Captivity." below his torso in the lower half of the hourglass, written in gray, is "Kills." To the left of the hourglass "He Saved Others" is painted in gray. To the right of the hourglass "But He Can't Save Himself" is painted in gray.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

"He saved others, but He can't save himself!" (Mt. 27:42)

Thousands of Ukrainian heroes, including about 900 defenders of Azovstal, are in Ruzzian captivity right now.

Let's demand the immediate release of those who sacrificed everything for freedom and democracy.#NEIVANMADE pic.twitter.com/ogDvdQl242

— #NEIVANMADE (@neivanmade) May 3, 2024

As I begin tonight’s update at 5:20 PM EDT, all of the eastern border regions – Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts – as well as Mykholaiv and Kherson Oblasts are under air raid alert. Now, as I get ready to hit publish at 6:25 PM EDT, only Sumy, Luhansk, and Crimea are under air raid alert. And, unfortunately, Luhansk and Crimea are always under air raid alert.

Russia did not let up in its bombardment of Ukraine on Orthodox Easter:

On this sunny Sunday holiday afternoon, russian troops struck the central district of Kharkiv with three glide bombs, injuring 15 civilians, destroying a house, and damaging over 20 private homes and apartment buildings.

📷place_kharkiv, haystov pic.twitter.com/UpvROpT2DJ

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 5, 2024

This is a friend's home in downtown Kharkiv after Russian gliding bomb landed nearby. 'Luckily, no one was home, but the windows and balcony door are blown out'. This is what 'luck' looks like in Ukraine pic.twitter.com/0neaAgo13p

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 5, 2024

Rescue workers spend half a day extinguishing large-scale fires after Russian attack on Sumy Oblast – photo, videohttps://t.co/BNWP2EkBFa

— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) May 5, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Easter Greetings by the President of Ukraine

5 May 2024 – 09:01

Great People of Great Ukraine!

Today we celebrate a significant holiday — the Resurrection of the Lord. Easter. Easter symbolizes the liberation of the human soul from the slavery of evil and darkness. It symbolizes the victory of goodness and justice, the victory of life over death.

We have been fighting for all of this for 802 days in a row. 802 days of freedom standing up to darkness, valor standing up to terror. 802 days of our resistance, which can be described by the words from the Gospel of John: “The light shines in the darkness, and the darkness has not overcome it…”

The exact same words are dedicated to one of the exhibitions at St. Sophia Cathedral, where I am now. Together, this exhibition and the other works by various Ukrainian artists convey a deep meaning. These are the icons on ammunition boxes. They are saturated with the smoke of our land and the spirit of our people. They are the symbols of great trials and great power that helps us overcome them. Each of these icons is like a divine manifestation, a proof that the heavens are with us, an answer to the question of why Ukrainians have withstood. It is because in the most difficult circumstances and in the darkest times we are able to create light. We can do it on boards scorched by fire and grief, that came from Ukrainian cities and villages exhausted by suffering. We can do this by combining the seemingly incompatible: the war and the Lord, by overcoming evil with faith, overcoming adversity with hope.

When taking a closer look at these icons, one can understand the feelings of our entire nation. It’s a mirror that reflects our reality in times of war, the path we have already taken, and this Easter, and our entire present. This is what our amulets look like today. This is how we feel that God is protecting us through the hands of our warriors. This is how we see the protection of the heavenly forces, embodied in the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine, every Ukrainian who devotes themself to the sacred cause of defending their native land from darkness and evil.

These icons bear the names of heroes who sacrificed their lives to protect us. They showed that Ukrainians kneel only to pray. And never do they kneel in front of invaders and occupiers.

The Bible teaches us to love our neighbor. And the present has shown us the true meaning of this word. When we support and help each other even hundreds of kilometers away from one another. We protect each other. We pray for each other. When we all have become closer to each other, we have become each other’s neighbors. And our former neighbor, who was always making us take him for a brother, remains distant from us for centuries. They have broken all the commandments, coveted our house, and come to kill us. The world sees it.

God knows it. And we believe that there is a chevron with the Ukrainian flag on the shoulder of God. Therefore, with such an ally, life will definitely prevail over death.

As we overcome a common path and experience common pain, we are all united today by one common prayer. We pray for all our warriors who are celebrating Easter in the trenches and on the positions. We pray for our warriors of light, who restrain demons in all directions. We pray for those who keep another commandment in their lives: to defend Ukraine. We pray that they all come back alive.

We pray for all our civilians who work hard every day to strengthen our state and ensure that it successfully overcomes evil. We pray for those who live and work for this purpose.

We pray for all our children, for all the boys and girls brave far beyond their years, whose childhood was stolen from them by Russia, but who, despite everything, have not forgotten how to smile and believe in miracles.

We pray for all our mothers and fathers who were robbed of a happy, peaceful aging, and who, despite everything, are holding on and taking care of us.

We pray for all our cities and villages, that should feel the Lord’s grace, not the constant terror of evil, and which have black clouds hanging over them, and bombs and missiles coming from those who belong in hell, not in the Ukrainian sky.

We pray for our lands and our people, whose spirit cannot be broken. And we remember the words written in St. Sophia Cathedral above the Oranta image, which came true in our lives: “God is in the midst of the city, and it will not be shaken. God will help it before dawn.”

Today, we are praying for all Ukrainians who are waiting for this dawn and will certainly see it. They will find peace, truth, and God, who will return to the scorched land, the land scarred with craters and trenches. He will return with peace, tranquility, and flowers instead of mines in the fields. He will return with children’s laughter instead of the roar of an air alarm. The light that will return to all of our Lord-given land, to all the territories that are temporarily occupied by the devils. God will return to Mariupol. To the slag heaps and the seashores. It has always been so. It will definitely be so. I believe in this every day, especially on this glorious day in this glorious place, the history of which reminds us that neither the Horde invasion, nor the Nazi occupation, nor the Russian terror will be able to wipe us off the face of the Earth.

May the heavens strengthen our will in the battle against thralldom. May they give us courage for new achievements and wisdom to appreciate all that we have already gained. May they give us the strength to maintain unity, and give us unity to enhance our strength. May God grant eternal rest to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine and everlasting peace to their descendants, to all our children and grandchildren, and to all our future generations. They have the sacred right to know what a peaceful Easter in a peaceful Ukraine is.

Today we pray for it and we fight for it.

And the light shines in the darkness…

Happy Easter to all of you, dear Ukrainians!

Christ is risen!

He is risen indeed!

Happy Easter! pic.twitter.com/Im2Yq43dwA

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 5, 2024

Facing our third Easter in this new reality, it's still hard to accept. But we hold onto hope: one day, good will triumph over evil, life over death. Wishing us all strength, faith, and perseverance. Christ is Risen! pic.twitter.com/Bm3BLBH6w7

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 5, 2024

Ukrainian Defenders send holiday packages with Easter cakes to their brothers-in-arms in Krynky (Russian-occupied part of Kherson region where Ukrainian Army has a stronghold) using drones.

📹: libkos/instagram https://t.co/kR9ouWxi0p pic.twitter.com/mnwaOmHpkW

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 5, 2024

“In Sweden, security services are meanwhile investigating a series of recent railway derailments, which they suspect may be acts of state-backed sabotage. Russia has attempted to destroy the signalling systems on Czech railways” https://t.co/GiireeZMRF

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 5, 2024

The Financial Times via the Wayback Machine because of the paywall: (emphasis mine)

European intelligence agencies have warned their governments that Russia is plotting violent acts of sabotage across the continent as it commits to a course of permanent conflict with the west. 

Russia has already begun to more actively prepare covert bombings, arson attacks and damage to infrastructure on European soil, directly and via proxies, with little apparent concern about causing civilian fatalities, intelligence officials believe. 

While the Kremlin’s agents have a long history of such operations — and launched attacks sporadically in Europe in recent years — evidence is mounting of a more aggressive and concerted effort, according to assessments from three different European countries shared with the Financial Times.

Intelligence officials are becoming increasingly vocal about the threat in an effort to promote vigilance.

“We assess the risk of state-controlled acts of sabotage to be significantly increased,” said Thomas Haldenwang, head of German domestic intelligence. Russia now seems comfortable carrying out operations on European soil “[with] a high potential for damage,” he told a security conference last month hosted by his agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

Haldenwang spoke just days after two German-Russian nationals were arrested in Bayreuth, Bavaria, for allegedly plotting to attack military and logistics sites in Germany on behalf of Russia.

Two men were charged in the UK in late April with having started a fire at a warehouse containing aid shipments for Ukraine. English prosecutors accuse them of working for the Russian government.

In Sweden, security services are meanwhile investigating a series of recent railway derailments, which they suspect may be acts of state-backed sabotage.

Russia has attempted to destroy the signalling systems on Czech railways, the country’s transport minister told the FT last month.

In Estonia, an attack on the interior minister’s car in February and those of journalists were perpetrated by Russian intelligence operatives, the country’s Internal Security Service has said. France’s ministry of defence also warned this year of possible sabotage attacks by Russia on military sites.

“The obvious conclusion is that there has been a real stepping up of Russian activity,” said Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, the think-tank.

“One cannot tell if that’s a reflection of the fact that the Russians are throwing more resources at it; whether they are being more sloppy and getting caught; or whether western counter-intelligence has simply become better at detecting and stopping it,” he added. “Whatever it is though — there is a lot going on.”

One senior European government official said information was being shared through Nato security services of “clear and convincing Russian mischief”, which was co-ordinated and at scale. 

The time had come to “raise awareness and focus” about the threat of Russian violence on European soil, he added.

Nato issued a statement on Thursday declaring its deep concern about growing “malign activities on allied territory” by Russia, citing what it said was an “intensifying campaign . . . across the Euro-Atlantic area”.

The growing fears over Russia’s appetite for physical damage against its adversaries follow a spate of accusations against Russia over disinformation and hacking campaigns.

On Friday, Germany vowed consequences for Moscow — in a statement backed by the EU and Nato — over a 2023 hacking attack on the social democratic party of chancellor Olaf Scholz.

A scandal exposing Russian attempts to co-opt far right European politicians ahead of upcoming European elections is meanwhile still unfolding.

One intelligence official said Moscow’s sabotage efforts should not be seen as a distinct from other operations, saying the ramp-up in activity reflected Russia’s aim to exert maximum pressure “across the piece”.

Putin is currently feeling “emboldened” and will seek to push lines as hard as he can in Europe, on multiple fronts, he said, whether through disinformation, sabotage or hacking. 

Increased aggression from Russian intelligence also reflects the desire for the country’s spymasters to reassert themselves after their most serious setback since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In the weeks following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than 600 Russian intelligence officers operating in Europe with diplomatic cover were ejected, dealing serious damage to the Kremlin’s spy network across the continent.

In a recent report, analysts at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute highlighted the efforts to which Russia had gone to reconstitute its presence in Europe, often using proxies. Those include members of the Russian diaspora as well as organised crime groups with which the Kremlin has long-standing ties.

A key strategic shift has also occurred, with so-called “Committees of Special Influence” coordinating intelligence operations country-by-country for the Kremlin, drawing together what were previously piecemeal efforts by the country’s fractious security services and other Kremlin players.

With Russia’s stepping up operations, security services have been on high alert over threats and are looking to identify targets they may have missed.

Questions have been raised, for instance, over a so-far unexplained explosion at a BAE Systems munitions factory in Wales that supplies shells used by Ukraine. In October 2014 a Czech arms depot where weapons for Kyiv were being stored was destroyed; Russian military intelligence agents were later revealed to have planted explosives at the site.

A huge fire broke out on Friday at a factory in Berlin owned by the arms company Diehl, which also supplies Ukraine. More than 160 specialist firefighters were called to tackle the blaze, with residents in a huge swath of the west of the capital told to keep windows closed due to possible toxic fumes.

“As ever with Russia, it’s wise not to look for a single explanation of why they are doing anything. There’s always a combination of things going on,” said Giles.

“These pinprick attacks we’ve seen so far are of course to create disruption, but they can also be used for disinformation. And then there is what Russia learns from these attacks if they want to immobilise Europe for real . . . They’re practice runs.”

The US, its NATO and EU allies, and many of its non-NATO and non-EU allies have been in a world war since at least 2011, if not 2009, which is when the shaping operations began in the information domain. This world war was declared by Putin at the 2007 Munich Security Conference. In his declaration of war he framed the conflict as the US and its EU and NATO allies having begun the way by attacking post-Soviet Russia. It’s key and overarching strategic objective is to remake the international order to be much more favorable for Putin, Russia, and Putin’s surrogates, trusted agents, and catspaws. Russia has largely waged this war by using the elements of national power (the DIME-FIL) other than military power – diplomatic, information, economic, financial, intelligence, and legal – while deemphasizing the use of military power except where it has been assessed that using it will be resource efficient. Which had been the case until Putin ordered a speed run on Kyiv in February 2022. As such, the effects of Putin’s world war have not been normally distributed and, as a result, often ignored as just politics or economics or business as usual. The leaders of the US, NATO, the EU as a whole and its member states, and a number of other states and societies need to get their heads around the fact that we are in a decades spanning world war, that the instigator of that world war shows no indications that he is going to relent anytime soon, and they need to get their citizenry focused on the reality of what is going on. Otherwise Putin will continue to wage his war. And he’ll continue to reap the benefits as Tymofiy Mylovanov, the head of the Kyiv School of Economics, explains via the Thread Reader App:

There are three popular arguments behind “de-escalation” doctrine with Russia. All three are wrong

1. Fear of nukes and World War 3

2. The person after Putin could be worse than Putin

3. The entire region might become destabilized. 1/

But first let’s admit the obvious: The US deescalation doctrine doesn’t work.

Think about it! There hasn’t been a single instance of Russia deescalating in response to any action by Ukraine or the West. 2/ 

The Black Sea gain deal, partial easing of sanctions on energy and agriculture, the U.S. restrictions on Ukraine to strike deep in Russia, delays in supply Ukraine with weapons that it asked for – none of it resulted in deescalation by Russia 5/ 
Perhaps, the most telling example is the recent delay in the $61 billion U.S. support for Ukraine. From the perspective of Russia, it is within the U.S. deescalation doctrine. 6/ 
The U.S. blamed it on its politics, and it is true – the politics were the reason. But regardless of the U.S. issues, a delay in this aid is a de-escalation or self-containment action. What did Russia do in response? Pushed forward, took cities, bomber civilians. 7/ 
In the history of this war, whenever the West or Ukraine hesitated and gave Russia physical, geographical, and technological space to escalate – it did. 8/ 
Russia understands force. It retreats when pushed back. It doesn’t attack when there is air defense and artillery to strike back. The de-escalation doctrine is fundamentally flawed because it assumes that Russia can be reasoned with, that they will respond to diplomacy. 9/ 
But if they do, why do they declare Zelensky wanted this week? What kind of diplomatic or symbolic moves is this? A sign that they are open to diplomacy by undermining legitimacy of the Ukrainian president among its own domestic base? No, it is a move to commit not use diplomacy/ 

Indeed, how could Russia negotiate with a wanted criminal?

Ok, so, in my view the West continues to be in self-denial. And it will pay dearly for its mistakes. 10/ 

Here is a case in point: U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan says the $61 billion in military aid will help Ukraine hold the line against Russian advances in 2024 and mount a counteroffensive in 2025 to recapture lost territory 11/
ft.com/content/6fd110…
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https://www.ft.com/content/6fd11006-01db-4548-96d6-76343f38aea8
What counteroffensive? In what political climate? It is uncertain if the U.S. will ever provide any additional support? With the coming elections, the U.S. has its hands full with its domestic politics. Regardless of the outcome, the election will be contested. 12/ 
Consequently, there will be serious disruptions foreign policy continuity. The U.S. can’t honor the commitments it makes in foreign policy because of political instability domestically. Perhaps, it is time to admit it and become realistic. 13/ 

The deescalation contrive requires commitment and strategic patience, which the U.S. doesn’t have.

So, if there is no patience and commitment, then the appropriate doctrine is sprint – to give Ukraine everything it needs ASAP, not “stand by as long as it takes” 14/ 

Let’s now turn back to the reasons that make de escalation doctrine so appealing.

The fundamental appeal is the myth of “we can go back to normal” with Russia not being a militaristic adventurous regional power. 15/ 

Of course, while the U.S. is debating with itself in policy and academic circles whether Russia can be reasoned with, Russia is increasing hostile actions against Europe. 16/ ft.com/content/c88509…
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https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-c9bd-46f4-8a5c-9b2bdd3c3dd3
European intelligence agencies have warned that Russia is plotting violent acts of sabotage across Europe, including covert bombings, arson attacks, and damage to infrastructure, with little concern about civilian casualties. 17/ 
Recent (suspected and proven) Russian sabotage incidents: arrests in Germany and the UK related to attacks on military and logistics sites and a suspected railway sabotage in Sweden 18/ 
Then, there is also an attack on Estonia’s interior minister’s car, and warnings of possible attacks on French military sites. 19/ 
Intelligence officials believe there has been a significant increase in Russian sabotage activity in Europe 20/ 
NATO has expressed deep concern about growing “malign activities on allied territory” by Russia. The sabotage efforts are seen as part of a broader Russian campaign to exert maximum pressure on Europe through disinformation, hacking, and other means 21/ 

Security are investigating recent incidents at munitions factories and arms depots supplying Ukraine.

So, yes, let’s talk deescalation. It has worked so well so far and is bound to be a success in the future. 22/ 

This brings me point 3 above: the fear that the region will become destabilized unless we de escalate.

This a good through, but it is naive and innocent. The problem is that the region is becoming destabilized anyway and de escalation efforts failed 23/ 

You can of course argue that the alternative is worse. That if the West tries to stand up to Russia it will escalate and destabilize even more. This is a theoretical argument that has no evidence. In fact, the events of the war in Ukraine prove the opposite 24/ 

Look at the Russia Black Sea Fleet! When everyone was nice and tried to keep Russia in the gain deal, it used its warships left and right to pound Ukraine.

Once Russia pulled out, Ukraine pushed back the warships into their harbors with seadrones and sinker a bunch of them 25/ 

Russian response? None! Now Russian warships are not a threat to the Black Sea anymore. This is how real de escalation works. 26/ 

Let’s now talk nukes and war world 3. Russia has threatened time and time again to use them if a red line is crossed.

This matter should be taken seriously. But the notion of the nuclear deterrence is mutual.27/ 

If the U.S. doesn’t commit to punish Russia extremely harsh for a use of nuke, then the U.S. cannot deter Russia from using nukes. Clear deterrence and deterrence to use nukes tactically has nothing to do with what happens in Ukraine, but with the US will to act and be unafraid/ 
But it is in fact Russia who mastered tactical nuclear deterrence. It deters the U.S. and allies from acting by threatening to use nukes. The West has been played and has been unable to offer a decent response. 29/ 

The only realistic response to Russia is in fact through Ukraine. If Russia is stopped and loses in Ukraine, the U.S. will show that Russia could be deterred

But that’s not the U.S. current thinking. 30/ 

Finally, the argument that a person after Putin can be worse is frankly laughable. With that type of logic every tyrant shouldn’t be dislodged. This is exactly the story that all tyrants tell people they oppress: the environment is tough, I am your best deal. 31/

dsd

Kharkiv:

My hometown today💔
Please speak out about Kharkiv and do not allow russian war crimes to become normalized. pic.twitter.com/opqNML0wqU

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 5, 2024

Donetsk Oblast:

Easter in Donetsk region, where Russians are actively advancing, destroying town after town. Ukrainian soldiers do not have opportunity to celebrate this day with their families, but they don’t lose faith.

5 May 2024 pic.twitter.com/NLIVSBHmgK

— Vasilisa Stepanenko (@VasilisaUKR) May 5, 2024

Bakhmut:

Gut-wrenching to see Bakhmut destroyed like this. I’ve seen countless such videos and photos now and it hits hard every time. This is what Russia has wrought on Ukraine. This video shows the central blocks of what used to be a vibrant city of 80,000 residents. It’s filmed heading… pic.twitter.com/czttwrbHiU

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 5, 2024

Gut-wrenching to see Bakhmut destroyed like this. I’ve seen countless such videos and photos now and it hits hard every time. This is what Russia has wrought on Ukraine. This video shows the central blocks of what used to be a vibrant city of 80,000 residents. It’s filmed heading east on Tsiolkovskoho Lane, then turning south on Nezalezhnosti (Independence) Street, and then east on Bazarna Street. I walked these streets every day for years. The vehicle drives by the back entrance to my second apartment; past New York Street Pizza; it scans toward the office where I saw many friends get married; past the central square and Palace of Culture; past the Silpo grocery and central market; then finally past the bus station.

Novoprovs’ke:

That tank went out like a warrior, taking all kinds of hits that'd send a T-90 to a fiery, immediate grave. We have thousands of these. We give 31.

— John Jackson (@hissgoescobra) May 5, 2024

Footage posted yesterday showing a Ukrainian M1A1 Abrams tank damaged/destroyed near Novopokrovs’ke. It was targeted by FPVs, a Lancet, Krasnopol artillery rounds, and a possible ATGM. The footage shows the crew abandoning the tank. A Bradley was also destroyed nearby.
https://t.me/lost_warinua/75376
https://t.me/rusich_army/14425
https://t.me/blackhussars/1828
https://t.me/btr80/16556
https://t.me/mod_russia/38255

The Avdiivka-Pokrovsk front:

The below map is bad for many reasons. But one particular reason it’s bad is that the Russians are now less than 10km/6 miles from the strategically important T0504 highway connecting key Donetsk region cities of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.… https://t.co/tquZtKU6A6 pic.twitter.com/yGRqoGRRNB

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 5, 2024

The below map is bad for many reasons. But one particular reason it’s bad is that the Russians are now less than 10km/6 miles from the strategically important T0504 highway connecting key Donetsk region cities of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Having fire control over it would make logistics difficult for Ukrainian forces on the eastern front. Also, as Russian forces strengthen their flanks and push north from Ocheretyne and Arkhanhelske, it will put the embattled towns of Niu-York and Toretsk under greater pressure and make it harder to supply troops holding them.

 

The Dnipro River, Kherson Oblast:

/2. Full video by 406th Brigadehttps://t.co/qz6Q4UJFdj pic.twitter.com/38Q5LptzFx

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 5, 2024

Kramatorsk:

Frontline Easter celebration: Easter cakes in ammo boxes and helmets instead of baskets.

This is how Easter is celebrated in Kramatorsk.

📷: armyinform, Donetsk region. pic.twitter.com/aHCPviuBWb

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 5, 2024

Odesa:

Russia has attacked Odesa with ballistic missiles several times this week. Despite anything, people there are baking Easter cakes and treating our Defenders.

The video shows only some of the Easter breads that the author of the video gave away at the Odesa railway station,… pic.twitter.com/U82EPt8gf3

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 3, 2024

Russia has attacked Odesa with ballistic missiles several times this week. Despite anything, people there are baking Easter cakes and treating our Defenders.

The video shows only some of the Easter breads that the author of the video gave away at the Odesa railway station, while the rest were sent to the soldiers at the frontlines.

📹: _yana_ukraine/TikTok

For those of you logistics enthusiasts, here’s a long accounting of Russia’s AFVs. Via the Thread Reader App:

1/ It’s time to show the rest of BMPs and BTRs left in Russian storage. Here’s my final thread on AFV counts.Image
2/ Here you have the numbers at the remaining storage bases storing BMPs and BTRs which I haven’t covered until now, with outdated dates in orange. First BMPs:
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3/ And BTRs:
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4/ Here are the prewar quantities @HighMarsed and I found:

5/ After having posted in recent threads the total numbers of MT-LBs, MT-LBus, BRDM-2s and BTR-50s counted by me and @HighMarsed, and also the number of BMPs and BTR-60/70/80s at the bases analyzed along with @Vishun_military, now it’s time to look at the remaining armor left in storage.Image

6/ As you can see, BMPs are mostly stored at the usual tank and IFV bases, such as the ones I already covered with newer footage bought by Vishun, aka the 22nd, 1295th, 111th, 2544th, 769th and 3018th/6018th.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1784519287291384213

7/ And also at the 349th and 103rd/2546th, which are gonna be covered in this thread.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

8/ Most of the other BMPs are stored in artillery depots, like the 94th arsenal. Probably all armor stored there are artillery support vehicles like PRP-3s in the case of BMP-based armored vehicles:

9/ And some actual BMPs are also stored in small numbers in bases that HighMarsed and I are unsure if are storage or active bases: the 245th, 187th, 5349th/104th, 7022th, 230th, 237th, 243th (bis) and 247th. These small bases have been almost entirely depleted by now.

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10/ In the case of BTRs, as you can see in the table, while there are many at tank/IFV and artillery depots, they are also spread out over a huge number of other storage facilities. I couldn’t find a clear pattern as to why is that.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1769299608771916105

11/ Now that that’s explained, let’s get into the actual analysis. First I’ll start with the 394th. Based on ground footage from a decade ago, equipment stored here is pretty rundown, but the lack of good footage make it impossible to prove it:
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12/ This base was already covered by HighMarsed back in the day, and what he and @CovertCabal found was an increase in the number of stored BMPs:

13/ We discussed this while recounting together this base and came to the conclusion that footage of this storage base is always so mind-shattering that, although the spots we identified as more BMPs can’t be certainly identified as such, we rather overcount equipment than undercount it. This picture is proof enough to understand what I mean by that:Image
14/ There has been speculation that Russia has been buying armor from Central Asian countries and that the increase in BMPs in the 349th, being so near from the Kazhak border, could be due to that.Image

15/ However, a new article from Vishun proved that Kazakhstan’s stored equipment is still there since 2022, so maybe it’s just that Russia (understandably) is consolidating part of their stored equipment:

https://x.com/Vishun_military/status/1786471287201636754

16/ All in all, the number of BTRs in the 349th in October 2023 decreased from 276 to 259, and the number of BMPs increased from 316 to 600 (284 more BMPs in total). Once again, consider what I said about us being unsure of our figures of this base due to the bad quality of satellite imagery.Image

17/ Next is the 103rd/2546th base. The equipment stored in this one, like in the 349th, looks pretty rough already some years ago.

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18/ In the case of this storage depot, in October 2023 the amount of BMPs decreased from 613 to 359, or 254 BMPs less. The number of BTRs apparently increased in 7 units, from 162 to 169. Some sections of the base are almost entirely empty after removing so many BMPs (and tanks).Image
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19/ Now that the two main bases featuring on this thread have been shown, let’s take a quick look at other interesting ones. Let’s start with the 94th arsenal, with footage from January 2024. In this huge artillery base the number of PRP-3s and BTR-60 1V18/1V19s (unsure if the IDs are correct) has barely shifted. Just 26 less PRPs and, coincidentally, also 26 less 1V18/19s.Image
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20/ No surprise here, as I already said in one of my first threads, these outdated vehicles are almost useless in a modern battlefield.
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21/ Omsk also hosts another two storage yards inside the city, both holding more BTR-60s and 70s. Not a single one has been retrieved from these:
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22/ I think I found some more specialized BTR-60 AND BMP-based vehicles at other artillery arsenals, such as the Sverosovkhoz or the 216th:

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23/ With both the 349th-103rd/2546th and artillery bases covered, now let’s first see a bit of the decline of BMPs stored at minor bases. First, the former Ukrainian depot near Sevastopol.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1769272075741434013

24/ I recently found footage of this one thanks to @waffentraeger. This base now only stored a bunch of cannibalized and totally broken BMP-2s, MT-LBs and BTR-70s, although there were still 8 apparently well preserved BTR-70s here as of September 2023.Image
25/ Another one is the 245th. Here there were only 31 BMPs left in July 2023, compared to 148 before the war:
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26/ Another interesting base is the one at Novaya Stanitsa, in the outskirts of Omsk. This one could possibly be a training ground. Both BTRs and BMPs went down here. Here’s a good in detail analysis of said base:

27/ One final minor BMP storage base, and then we jump to BTRs: the 247th. Here they dropped from 50 to 14 by November 2022, including 3 clearly broken:
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28/ Now let’s see the situation regarding BTR-60/70/80s. First, as you can see in my table, most of the stored BTRs are 70s. 60s appear to be mostly specialized versions, as they are almost exclusively stored at artillery depots. 

29/ BTR-80s were almost exclusively stored at the 22nd, and they are well on their way to extinction:

Unroll available on Thread Reader

30/ So, let’s now take a look at some minor storage bases that hold BTRs. Let’s start with the one at Saigrajewo: all 198 BTR-70s stored here were cannibalized at some point during this war.

31/ This points to what I’ve said multiple times: BTR-70s are increasingly in use in the rear due to the increasing lack of more modern armor to replenish losses:

32/ Another interesting base is the 4998th. Here all 33 BTRs (some BTR-70s but mostly BTR-60 BTR-60 R-145BM) were gone by May 2022.

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33/ Another BTR storage depot is the one near Rzhanitsa. 114 BTR-70s were stored here before the war, and all but one remained there by 2023 (Yandex doesn’t specify the date).
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34/ At the 245th the number of BTR-70s also went down from 49 to just 2.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1786802135138542036

35/ One final base to look at and then let’s jump to the conclusion of this thread: the one near Yekaterimburg. Here the number of BTR-70s also stayed mostly the same: 58 before the war, 57 in September 2023.
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36/ Here’s a table with the total count of all AFVs:Image
37/ As I already said in my previous thread on BMPs and BTRs analyzing Vishun’s footage, the rate of BMP cannibalization and removal from storage has gone up recently. massivhttps://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1784523892167414122 
38/ Even with most footage in this thread being a lot older than Vishun’s, you can see BMPs decreased in total from 6021 before the war to 4325 in the most recent footage. 1696 less BMPs in storage in a little over two years.Image
39/ And a huge share of what remains are broken vehicles or specialized versions which aren’t useful in combat. And BMP-2s are almost gone, with most of what remains being BMP-1s.Image
40/ In the case of BTRs, BTR-80s are too almost entirely gone from storage facilities, and BTR-70s have slowly started to appear in the frontlines, though IMHO it’ll still take for them to arrive in big numbers.Image
41/ With over 1500 BTR-70s in storage as of latest footage, they can still replenish losses with these for a long time, although it remains to be seen how many can be converted to the modernized BTR-70M version, with BTR-80 rear hull section and turret and a diesel engine, far better than the baseline BTR-70.Image
42/ I doubt we’ll see BTR-60s ever, not in significant amounts. Maybe at some point we’ll see some here and there, but that’s it. They’re too old, not as many as BTR-70s and probably mostly broken and/or cannibalized for spare parts to export to BTR-60 user countries.Image
43/ And after this and the recent BTRZ update thread, that’s it for the counting and analysis of Russian AFV storage bases! Next and final thread should be about the odds of the Russian war effort in the medium/long term, based on how their industry will be able to cope with ever mounting losses and a smaller pool of replacement armor and spare parts and the like.Image

44/ Wrt this table, remember what I said in my MT-LB thread: a lot of footage is pretty low, numbers are probably much lower now (I estimate 300-500 in the case of MT-LBs).

Unroll available on Thread Reader

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

Sunday sunny vibes.

📷: 241st @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/mGw2Q4Q8rg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 5, 2024

And a new episode of Patron’s official cartoon!

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 803: Russia Bombards Continues Its Bombardment of Ukraine Despite the Holy DayPost + Comments (16)

War for Ukraine Day 802: A Brief Saturday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  May 4, 20246:34 pm| 23 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Just a brief housekeeping note: Rosie is continuing to improve. She’s putting weight back on, much more active, just marked improvement. She goes for her next oncology appointment on Monday and once the oncology vet does her exam and runs her bloodwork, we’ll find out how they decide to adjust her course of treatment. The protocol is sixteen treatments spread over 25 weeks. We’re now at spread over 26 weeks. The good news is that the oncology vet is excellent and is treating Rosie as much as she’s treating the lymphoma. I appreciate all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, etc. Thank you all very much. As you can imagine, I’m exhausted. The past two weeks have been draining and nerve racking. I spent most of today asleep. I’m not sure if I’ve been asleep longer than awake you can call them naps, but I’ve had two! I am very sorry that I have been cross, short, cranky, out of sorts, and a general pain in the ass in the comments and replies. You guys are all good as far as I’m concerned. I appreciate you keeping my on my toes and sharpening my thinking. And I probably don’t say that enough because quite often over the past nine years something important started on the front page and by having to think through your replies, it was a far better product once I actually had to account for your pushback. Once I hit publish tonight I’m going offline and expect I’ll be asleep by 8 PM.

As day turned into night, as Saturday because (Orthodox) Easter Sunday in Ukraine, the Russians opened up on large portions of Ukraine. All in the name, I’m sure, of Putin protecting white Christendom.

As I type this, at 5:35 PM EDT, all of eastern and southeastern Ukraine are under air raid alert. From Russian occupied Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts to Mykolaiv Oblast.

Six minutes ago!

Explosions reported in Kharkiv! Right now, my hometown is under russian Shahed drone attack for the second day in a row!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 4, 2024

Photo credits: Leonid Logvynenko pic.twitter.com/R98SVXrTbt

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 4, 2024

About an hour ago, russian forces struck a civilian enterprise in Kharkiv with a missile. A video captured smoke billowing from a large-scale fire that erupted following the attack. Preliminary reports indicate that five civilians were injured.
📹place_kharkiv pic.twitter.com/MjxQWeY2WJ

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 4, 2024

Russia hits Kharkiv again, fourth time today. They're not just bombing us; they're trying to break people’s resilience. pic.twitter.com/66LnqhgQG9

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 4, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

The Russian Evil Does Not Diminish Its Desire to Bring Ruins Even on the Eve of Easter – Address by the President

4 May 2024 – 20:52

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, all day long, our defenders of the sky had a lot of work. Kharkiv, Odesa, the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. Only this morning our warriors have already shot down thirteen “Shahed” drones. During the day, Russian terrorists used 8 missiles of various types and almost 70 guided aerial bombs against our border communities and positions at the front. The Russian evil does not diminish its desire to bring ruins even on the eve of Easter. And it is only up to us – all of us and everyone who really helps Ukraine – to determine where these ruins will be stopped and when the occupier will lose.

Now I want to thank each warrior in our mobile firing groups, in the Air Force, in air defense units of other types and branches of the military forces – all those who are protecting now and will continue to protect the Ukrainian skies from Russian terror. It is important to be as attentive as possible these days.

I would also like to give special mention to the soldiers of the 110th separate mechanized brigade for shooting down another Russian Su-25 in the Donetsk region today. Good job, guys!

I thank all our warriors at the front, on combat missions, at combat posts – all those who despite the intense Russian pressure, despite all the difficulties of the current situation destroy the occupier. Every combat brigade of ours that holds its positions firmly, every warrior who ensures the result for himself, for his brothers-in-arms, and for his unit, defends the whole of Ukraine and preserves the opportunity for Ukraine not only to withstand but also to repel the occupier.

This morning Oleksandr Syrskyi delivered a long report. The Commander-in-Chief spoke particularly about our frontline positions, concrete actions of our units, and particular directions. I thank each of our warriors for their resilience! The Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov also delivered a report today. We are aware of all the aspects of the current situation.

All of us should remember that Russia can only be forced to leave Ukraine alone. And this will happen. Our strength will definitely make it happen. The strength of our people, our military strength, the strength of our unity with the world, the strength of our partners – the strength of our diplomacy. I thank everyone in the team of our country – in my team, and in the teams of our partner countries – who are already working these days to ensure that in June all of us – all the countries of the world that value life – achieve a truly significant political result. The Global Peace Summit will be held, and it has to be successful, no matter how hard they try to sabotage it. Putin does not want peace, he is insane, and every day his state does new things to prove it. And to overcome this evil, to overcome the war, we need the maximum unity of the world. We achieve the results together.

I thank everyone who is fighting and working for the sake of our country and people! I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! I thank everyone who really provides us with timely and strong support!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost and the reason:

What you don't hear – anyone honking their horn. Everyone stops, everyone is quiet, people kneel. Each death matters because each life matters. https://t.co/0jfFMD1Qjf

— Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) May 4, 2024

The reason:

Instead of a thousand words.

The goodbye kiss at the train station in Sloviansk.

📷: wojciechgrzedzinski pic.twitter.com/I9Iu1NYvzz

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024

It’s Easter time in Ukraine. And it’s one of the darkest Easters in my lifetime.

I grew up with my Mom & Dad in a standard Soviet one-room apartment called “gostinka”. 12 m² at first. Then upgraded to 19 m². Every evening and every morning I heard my Mom pray. When I was 10,… pic.twitter.com/ajX0JFjmAk

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) May 3, 2024

It’s Easter time in Ukraine. And it’s one of the darkest Easters in my lifetime.

I grew up with my Mom & Dad in a standard Soviet one-room apartment called “gostinka”. 12 m² at first. Then upgraded to 19 m². Every evening and every morning I heard my Mom pray. When I was 10, she said kiddo it’s time for you to learn praying, but I already knew how. I learned by ear.

I’m a Christian from the Soviet time, when being a believer was hard. Yet, I never had a harder time believing in God, than now, with darkness being in the march and with religious leaders of the world either accepting, or tolerating it. With russian orthodox (and Buddhist, and Muslim) leadership blessing it. With many “Christians first” aching to see Ukraine dead. With the Pope condemning the war but not even naming the one conducting it.

“If there is God, I hate him”, wrote someone recently on 🇺🇦 Twitter. It’s not how I feel, but I understand the despair. I remember Aleppo getting killed by Russians. Bomb after bomb. Block after block. Young Syrians tweeting for the last time. And the world just watching. It feels increasingly like that in some Ukrainian cities now.

All these “Christians first”, who embrace Ukraine’s killing – what do they have to do with Christ? They want to see Ukraine crucified. Would Christ want anybody crucified? For me, it’s an insane, dark, merciless version of Christianity.

Decent, kind, faithful people stand with Ukraine. Unkind, cruel, fake people – don’t. And, as it turns out, there’re A LOT of them. Like the Bible says, their name is legion.

With this thought, I go into the night of Good Friday, faithful that there will be another day for Ukraine. And thanking you – Christian or not, believers or not – who even amid this hour of darkness embrace light and refuse to be fooled by the devil.

#StandWithUkraine

PS. The photo is from around the time when I learned praying.

 

#Maythe4thBeWithYou!
On #StarWarsDay, our ambassador @MarkHamill recorded a special video address, reminding everyone about the importance of supporting🇺🇦in these dire times.
Thank you to Mark and all our donors for their Force, which is always with us💙💛https://t.co/sDcBnPZXbA pic.twitter.com/Bsk4jFITf9

— UNITED24 (@U24_gov_ua) May 4, 2024

DC:

Russia spends about 25% of the state budget on militarization.

Putin continues to believe there is a threat to Russia from NATO and is willing to spend an increasing amount of the budget on armaments, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said at a congressional… pic.twitter.com/j0TROKSkbH

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024

Russia spends about 25% of the state budget on militarization.

Putin continues to believe there is a threat to Russia from NATO and is willing to spend an increasing amount of the budget on armaments, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said at a congressional hearing.

“Putin has increased defense spending to nearly 7 percent of GDP, almost double the historical average. Russia’s defense budget now accounts for about 25% of all spending,” Haines said.

She also believes that China’s supply of dual-use goods to Russia has played in favor of Moscow and its defense industry. Because of this, RF is making progress in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions.

📹 Voice of America

Last night in comments there was a discussion of ATACMS. The material Jay posted was originally reported on 2 May 2024 in PoliticoPro’s Morning Defense and their PoliticoPro subscription only service. I get the former, thanks to a former client that signed me up, but I don’t subscribe to the latter. Here is what is available before the paywall kicks in:

The production lines making the Army Tactical Missile System are cranking out enough of the long-range missiles that the Pentagon is no longer worried about depleting its own stocks by sending them to Ukraine.

The update on the production came from Army acquisition chief Doug Bush on Thursday, who said that “a significant number of missiles that were ordered years ago … is now hitting at just the right time to be able to support how we’re supporting Ukraine without taking a hit to readiness.”

That increase in missile deliveries, which Bush said is a “surge” of dozens of missiles every few months, will last until at least the rest of the year. “There are a lot of ATACMS coming off that line,” he said. 

Background: After two years of saying the U.S. didn’t have enough ATACMS to share with Ukraine, a small number of shorter-range versions were sent last fall, with a new batch of the longer, 200-mile-range missiles arriving in March.

What is below the paywall, and was in the email, was that Bush went on to say that they started producing a surplus on the ATACMS in December 2023, as a result the US is not worried about sending them to Ukraine depleting US stocks, especially as production of the munition replacing the ATAMCS is also now being produced.

I am very glad we’re sending them now. I’m very glad that Bush and his people were able to get the defense industrial base sorted ahead of schedule. But we didn’t increase what we were sending, using emergency executive authority, until March 2024. More and longer range ATACMS in March 2024 are great. They were absolutely essential in December 2023.

The head of the Kyiv School of Economics also brings us news that the Biden administration has been waving sanctions on Russian banks. From the Thread Reader App:

Recently, there’ve been reports of the U.S. easing Russian sanctions

Is this a carrot& stick game after the passing the aid? Is this signaling to Russia that the U.S. is willing to “de escalate” if… Or is this a sign of some covert negotiations with Russia?

Specifically, 1/Image

The reports said that U.S. now allows transactions related to energy with the Russian banks.

The problem is that it is quite misleading.

It is true that the sanctions have been eased relative to the start of the invasion. 2/ 

But the decision is not new and happened many months ago

What is immediately new is that easing of the sanctions s works through an exemption. And this exemption was set to expire last week. The U.S. renewed it until November. 3/ 

So, yes, the sanctions technically are eased because they were supposed to come into effect. But the U.S. keeps doing it and now it has become a technicality.

What is really the exemption? The U.S. allows transactions related to energy. 4/ 

Energy is broadly understood as “extraction, production, refinement, liquefaction, gasification, regasification, conversion, enrichment, fabrication, transport, or purchase of petroleum, including crude oil” but even 5/ 
“coal, wood, or agricultural products used to manufacture biofuels, or uranium in any form, as well as the development, production, generation, transmission, or exchange of power, through any means, including nuclear, thermal, and renewable energy sources 4/ 
The banks that are de-sanctioned are:

The Central Bank of Russia

Vnesheconombank

Otkritie

Sovcombank Open Joint Stock Company

Sberbank of Russia;

VTB Bank

Alfa-Bank

Rosbank

Bank Zenit

Bank Saint-Petersburg 5X 

It is the slow rolling of the decision-making of what to supply and when, as well as waving sanctions for no good or apparent reasons that were all too leaky to begin with, that speaks more loudly and clearly about the Biden administration’s policy and strategy than the actual official statements made by administration officials.

Germany:

German Chancellor Scholz answered a question about the reasons for his reluctance to transfer long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine:

"There are weapons that can only be supplied if there is control over everything that is done with them. And you can't have a debate here, as if… pic.twitter.com/f7bOzJKnBb

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 3, 2024

German Chancellor Scholz answered a question about the reasons for his reluctance to transfer long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine:

“There are weapons that can only be supplied if there is control over everything that is done with them. And you can’t have a debate here, as if between friends, “Don’t you trust me?” Of course I trust my friend. But still, I wouldn’t give all the weapons to everyone,” Scholz said.

Weapons save our lives and bring the end of the war in Europe closer.
Delay, partial assistance and procrastination are lost lives of Ukrainians.
And in the long run, it means spreading the war further, thousands of new victims and lost lives.

I know that Germany is a true friend of Ukraine. Germany has recently given Ukraine another Patriot as well as so much other military aid. So I believe that Ukraine will receive Taurus missiles at a time when it can really make a difference on the battlefield.

For want of a nail!

Odesa:

⚡️Governor: Russian missile attack on Odesa Oblast injures at least 3.

The attack damaged civilian infrastructure in the Odesa district, according to Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper.https://t.co/qBwNvKYDcz

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 4, 2024

The Donbas:

A panorama of massive shelling in one of the frontline areas in Donbas, filmed by a copter.

Hell on earth… https://t.co/kH5gsGduGP pic.twitter.com/zYW7GhOgI1

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

FPV drone operators of the 47th Brigade destroy Russian assault group on the Avdiivka fronthttps://t.co/QIVv7OaJuz pic.twitter.com/Y3OTrHSyHV

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 4, 2024

Not quite sure where in Ukraine this is:

Rare footage of tank battle. A column of two Russian BMPs and one tank goes on the attack. The tank of the 58th brigade of Ukraine is there to meet them. A tank of the 58th brigade makes a shot and destroys a Russian tank that was at the head of the column, after which two… pic.twitter.com/5MfdMpPw5q

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 4, 2024

Vuhledar:

From the Thread Reader App:

Folks! My friend Andrii from the 58 brigade told me that Russians at his direction are constantly attacking their positions near Vuhledar.

The 5 tank brigade, 37 motorised brigade and 40 marine brigade are attacking and losing a lot of armed vehicles🧵👇Image

4 BTR-82A and one BMP-1:

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Two MTLBs and three BMP-1:

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5 more destroyed BMPs:

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Destroyed T-80BV and damaged and abandoned T-62M:

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Damaged and abandoned T-72B3, destroyed BMP-1, damaged and abandoned T-72B3 and BREM-1, another destroyed T-72B3 and MTLB and destroyed T-80BV:

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Damaged and abandoned T-62M, destroyed BMP-1 and two more destroyed tanks:

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Another destroyed tank, damaged and abandoned T-62M (from the previous post), destroyed BMP-2:

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Damaged and abandoned T-72B3. Later was destroyed:Image
Right now fellas from the Ukrainian 58 brigade desperately need at least two drones (one is 3E).

If it’s possible, please, help:

PP: [email protected]

BMAC: buymeacoffee.com/ukranianmarine…

Wishlist | freedomfighterThe main goal of this page is to share my memories and thoughts about the war.https://buymeacoffee.com/ukranianmarines/wishlist
We have 40%! Thanks everyone for donation and/or repost!

Let’s keep going🔥

BTW, one of the tanks decided to take a bath.

Three other tanks from the previous attacks. Definitely not a calm part of the battlefield.

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adsd

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

A Russian aircraft that was conducting strikes with guided bombs on Kharkiv dropped a bomb on the Russian city of Belgorod.

It fell right on a residential sector and exploded. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.

Governor Gladkov did not disclose the cause of the explosion,… pic.twitter.com/2eOxFVoB0O

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024

A Russian aircraft that was conducting strikes with guided bombs on Kharkiv dropped a bomb on the Russian city of Belgorod.

It fell right on a residential sector and exploded. Sooner or later it was bound to happen.

Governor Gladkov did not disclose the cause of the explosion, but reported that 30 private residences and 10 cars were damaged in the city, and the residents of the house that sustained the most serious damage were “miraculously” survived.

Putin, his trusted agents, his surrogates, and the Russian educational system they have further perverted from what was inherited from the Soviet Union is leaving heavily into the mythology and factually inaccurate history of the Great Patriotic War, the cult of the Immortals, and Pobedobesie.

I've never seen Easter cakes like this.

They are from Russian schoolchildren of Kursk school number 58, sent to Russian soldiers at the frontlines.

The writing says – kill Nazis.

That's very sad, actually. https://t.co/jMgjr2CfgI pic.twitter.com/2ivyRzJ4ia

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 4, 2024

From last May:

THREAD.

It's nearly 9 May, when #Russia is celebrating "Victory Day". It's time to talk about #Pobedobesie – a militaristic fetishisation of WW2 in Putin's Russia.

1/x pic.twitter.com/UIqQzTAAYr

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) May 8, 2023

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:

#Pobedobesie is a pejorative term used to describe the “hyperbolic celebrations” of Victory Day in #Russia. This has been dubbed the Victory Cult.

2/xImageImageImageImage

#Pobedobesie includes weaponisation of the legacy of World War II to justify #Russia‘s aggressive policies and an increase of militarism, using the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany for propaganda purposes.

3/xImage

Significant part of #Pobedobesie is militarisation of education in Russia, including at preschool and primary school levels.

Children aged as young as 3-4 yo are dressed in military uniforms, and the idea of military service is “normalised”.



4/x
 

Within #Pobedobesie, Russian children are indoctrinated in the idea that their main motivation should be “to become defenders of the Motherland”.

They are told that “it’s not scary to die”. And parents and teachers applaud such “lessons”:

5/x

https://twitter.com/adagamov/status/1655220272843169793/video/1

According to @irgarner, Putin has reconstructed the Soviet “cult of the Great Patriotic War” in a “manner that has all the hallmarks of a religion”, and that the state’s cult has been incorporated into Orthodox Christianity, and vice versa”

6/x

#Pobedobesie occasionally takes on comic form: with “patriotic” bread, vodka and other products.

7/xImageImageImageImage

But overall #Pobedobesie remains a dangerous cult of militaristic fetishisation, which drives Russia’s aggression against neighbours, most notably against Ukraine, which is seeking freedom and European integration.

8/x

Read more about #Pobedobesie here:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pobedobes…

9/9

End of the thread. 

Pobedobesie – Wikipediahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pobedobesie
And here’s a bonus for you: #Pobedobesie in #Russia|n-occupied #Sevastopol, in Ukraine’s #Crimea peninsula

• • •

And here's a bonus for you: #Pobedobesie in #Russia|n-occupied #Sevastopol, in Ukraine's #Crimea peninsulapic.twitter.com/lyhq5hEOrd

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) May 8, 2023

And a couple of follow ons:

Please show me similar photos from the UK: these are scenes in Russia in early May every year. pic.twitter.com/JkyTOX2C8o

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) May 9, 2023

The commemoration of WW2 victims has nothing to do with this militaristic orgy that Russia is doing every May.

These are real adverts for 9 May parties in Russia: pic.twitter.com/IFY3FLduUw

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) May 9, 2023

Well that’s one way to celebrate Victory in Europe Day! As they say in the Ranger Regiment: That’s a technique!

That’s enough for tonight!

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets tonight. So here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Army Cats and Dogs feed:

“Rama” and her family pic.twitter.com/orPINSrnW5

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024

New life on frontline pic.twitter.com/bHqURZKnXS

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

🧚🏻🧚🏻🧚🏻 #песпатрон

♬ she was a fairy – 𝒟𝑒𝑒 ୨ৎ

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 802: A Brief Saturday Night UpdatePost + Comments (23)

War for Ukraine Day 800: Another Day Ending in Day, Another Russian Bombardment

by Adam L Silverman|  May 2, 20248:39 pm| 30 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A brief Rosie update: She is continuing to have a good appetite back and is eating and more active. So the week off and what we’re doing in terms of stabilizing her is working.

Here’s the damage to the Novaposhta facility in Odesa:

Ось такий у нас сьогодні ранок в Одесі.

У депо та відділенні разом було 904 відправлення на майже 3 млн грн. Аби компенсувати вартість ваших посилок і вантажів, ми вже з самого ранку вам дзвонимо.

Рашистською ракетою було знищено не тільки наше депо та відділення, а і 15.5 тонн… pic.twitter.com/1E1dF9pd4o

— Нова пошта (@NP_official_ua) May 2, 2024

Here’s the machine translation of Novaposhta’s tweet:

This is how we have this morning in Odessa.

The depot and the branch together had 904 shipments worth almost UAH 3 million. In order to compensate for the cost of your parcels and cargo, we call you from the very morning.

The rashist rocket destroyed not only our depot and branch, but also 15.5 tons of your orders from online stores with clothes, appliances, children’s toys, goodies for 🐾 , medicines, parcels with care for relatives, etc. 😔

And according to the enemy’s version, weapons were stored here. No words, alone 🤬

I guarantee you this wasn’t an accident. Novaposhta had recently been in the news for opening new locations in different EU member states.

  • AIN reminds that Nova Poshta opened 89 offices in Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Italy, Hungary, and Moldova.

Today’s bombardment:

Russian forces targeted the town of Derhachi, near Kharkiv, with two glided bombs, injuring eight children and a 75-year old man.

One bomb hit close to a sports complex where children were practicing, while another struck near houses, damaging 15 of them. pic.twitter.com/CViuETXr0Q

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 2, 2024

Russian troops killed a 12-year-old girl and her 65-year-old grandmother and injured two other civilians by shelling a village in the Donetsk Oblast with Grad MLRSs, Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported. pic.twitter.com/I0tEQJ1cv7

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 2, 2024

Day after day, russian troops continue to bring death and destruction to Kharkiv Oblast. Today's shelling of a village within the Kupiansk district claimed the life of a 66-year-old man. pic.twitter.com/6mxvITVCJO

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 2, 2024

⚡️Russia attacks 9 communities in Sumy Oblast.

Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast, firing 40 times and causing at least 215 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 2.https://t.co/6weXsdjbtg

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 2, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian forces attacked nine border areas and settlements of Sumy Oblast on May 2, firing 40 times and causing at least 215 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.

The communities of Mykolaivka, Khotin, Miropillia, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Esman, Seredyna-Buda, and Novo Sloboda were targeted.

No casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure were reported.

The Russian military struck the communities using artillery fire, AGS attacks, FPV drones, and mortar shelling, while also dropping mines.

The town of Miropillia experienced the most attacks, with 54 explosions recorded in the area. Miropillia, located about five kilometers from the Ukraine-Russian border, frequently comes under attack.

Residents in Sumy Oblast have been experiencing daily threats of shelling, but attacks have intensified in recent weeks, prompting large-scale evacuations from the region.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

I’ve Instructed to Work with Partners at All Levels to Speed Up the Supply of Arms, Implementing Packages and Agreements – Address by the President

2 May 2024 – 20:30

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Here’s a summary for the day.

The Staff. A few main issues. Of course, the situation at the front. There was a report from the Commander-in-Chief. Maximum attention was paid to the Pokrovsk direction. And other directions in the Donetsk region. Southern directions. Kharkiv region. The Commander-in-Chief also made a general report today on the protection of the border with Russia and our respective communities in several regions. The risks are clear. We will destroy the occupier under any circumstances.

The construction of fortifications was discussed separately and in great detail at the Staff meeting. There were reports from the government – Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, from the Office – within the purview of the regional direction of Oleksiy Kuleba, and from Oleksandr Yakovets, the Head of the State Special Transport Service. I am grateful to each and every person who is building fortifications on the ground and working as efficiently as necessary. We are keeping to the schedule.

Today we also discussed the protection of our energy sector – the protection of specific facilities from specific threats. Now we need to combine two processes: protecting the energy sector from current attacks and providing our people with electricity, and it is also time to start preparing for the next heating season. The task is obvious: we have to do the maximum to protect lives, and every aspect of this job – from air defense and electronic warfare at the facilities to the necessary construction and supplies – is the personal responsibility of everyone involved. From the government and the Air Force to energy companies and local services. I am grateful to everyone who takes their job with true diligence.

Also, following the conversation at the Staff meeting, I instructed the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Commander-in-Chief, each at their level, to work with partners to speed up the supply of weapons, implementing packages and agreements. Speed is important. The content of the packages is there, I see no problems with it today. I am grateful to the U.S. Congress for the decision, but the speed of delivery and implementation of decisions is something that should not be a problem either. We are waiting for the weapons to arrive in Ukraine for our warriors.

Today we also continue our preparations. We have held meetings on the results we expect from the coming months and the year as a whole.

NATO: prospects for the year and specifically, our fair expectations from the Summit in Washington. The European Union: preparations for the actual opening of accession negotiations, which we expect in June, and further work with the EU. And, of course, the Peace Summit, a global summit. There is already a specific distribution of government officials and other representatives of our country who will work in those geographical areas where we still need to engage leaders. These days, together with Switzerland, we have completed sending out invitations for the Summit. The specific dates of the Summit are June 15th and 16th. This will be the first phase – essentially the first real opportunity to begin the restoration of a just peace. All of us should understand that it is only global power that can force Russia into peace, and that is why we are working to involve as many participants as possible in the Summit in Switzerland and the corresponding communication. We must also be aware that Putin will try to disrupt this work, our efforts, and weaken Ukraine’s positions through various manipulations and attacks by his terrorists. All our positions – on the battlefield, in diplomacy and the information sphere – must be equally solid. For us to be able to exert pressure and achieve our goals, the occupiers must lose their ability to put pressure and gain anything for themselves. Hence, our strength, our capabilities, our weapons, our unity with partners must all work as one. And they will.

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! I thank everyone who fights and works for our country and people! I thank everyone who restores normal life after the Russian strikes and who brings us closer to holding Russia truly accountable for this war – a war in which we will definitely defend our independence.

Glory to Ukraine!

So much for all the assurances that the initial $1 billion worth of material was staged in the EUCOM AOR and would reach Ukraine within a week.

Now that the $61 billion Ukraine aid has passed, Biden aides tell Politico his administration will make the US’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion less of a public focus. 🤨

Mind you, Russian troops are on the offensive, taking territory every day and… https://t.co/WIFX9NtWt9

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 2, 2024

Now that the $61 billion Ukraine aid has passed, Biden aides tell Politico his administration will make the US’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion less of a public focus. 🤨

Mind you, Russian troops are on the offensive, taking territory every day and threatening strategic cities in the Donbas — not least because Washington dragged its feet on providing promised assistance.

The cost:

The Maidan square…each and every flag stands for someone who was killed in action to save this country from the Putin plague pic.twitter.com/Tp7BWnYGMR

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 2, 2024

 

Estonia:

Two Estonian boats, "Irpin" and "Reni," joined the Ukrainian Navy.
The patrol boats will perform combat tasks, including protecting civilian navigation.

These boats were handed over by our Estonian friends. We are grateful for your staunch support. 

📷: Ukrainian Navy pic.twitter.com/1GH8zuM5ET

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 2, 2024

The Estonian Foreign Minister:

I did it! Rode my bike from 🇪🇪TLN to Kyiv🇺🇦 to show that the war is ongoing just a bike ride away and to show support to defenders. Let’s keep focus on helping Ukraine win this war and beat terrorist Russia! pic.twitter.com/4kAO91yviP

— Kristo Enn Vaga (@kristovaga) May 2, 2024

Daniel Szeligowski, the head of the Eastern European Programme and the Senior Fellow on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs has posted a long thread calling out the Foreign Affairs piece that blamed Ukraine for the failure of the Spring 2022 peace process. From the Thread Reader App:

🧵THE DEAL THAT NEVER WAS

How Russia sought to subjugate Ukraine, the West rightly refused to play the ball, and Putin became personally responsible for the failure of the Ukrainian-Russian talksImage

Recent days have seen a renewed debate over the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks of spring of 2022. The popular wisdom says that both sides were close to an agreement, but this is simply false. Let’s finally unpack it, dyspel the myths and put a stop to the manipulation that abound 
FIRST, there was never any single deal that could have ended the war. What is simplistically presented as a deal was meant to combine at least three components – multilateral treaty on the status of Ukraine, bilateral Ukraine-Russia agreement, underpinned by Western guarantees 
The Ukrainian-Russian talks were barely one piece of a larger puzzle, and only the whole package agreed upon could have brought this war to an end. Since the talks already stalled over the first piece of the puzzle, a diplomatic end to the war was never really within reach 
SECOND, there was not even consensus between Ukraine and Russia as to what was really discussed. Ukraine insisted that the talks concerned the future status of Ukraine only, Russia – that a comprehensive agreement is negotiated, including the settlement of bilateral issues 
This is an extremely important detail, which is usually overlooked. All along, Ukraine underlined that bilateral issues are to be excluded from the multilateral treaty on the status of Ukraine, and are supposed to be the subject of separate talks between Zelensky and Putin 
And since there was no agreement between Ukraine and Russia on what was really to be discussed between the respective delegations, there was no further agreement on what would be potentially discussed between Zelensky and Putin either 
Zelensky expected his potential meeting with Putin to be serious negotiations on key bilateral points (Russian troops withdrawal, territorial issues). While Putin kept insisting that he would agree for any meeting only for Zelensky to sign “a peace agreement” 
For this reason, there was absolutely no agreement between Ukraine and Russia on either the mechanism for the withdrawal of the Russian troops, the territorial questions, the sequence of implementation of the arrangements, or even in what format these arrangements should be made 
Ukraine consistently maintained that territorial issues were to be agreed upon before a multilateral treaty on Ukraine’s status would enter into force. Russia maintained that the Russian troops would remain on the Ukrainian territory until Ukraine fully implemented the treaty 
THIRD, even in terms of Ukraine’s future status the two sides did not reach understanding on most aspects. Not even details of Ukraine’s neutrality were completely agreed upon, let alone the status and the size of the Ukrainian army 
It is not also true that Russia agreed to Ukraine’s accession to the EU. It expressed its consent in principle, but subject to conditions that Ukraine rejected, pointing out that other neutral countries that are members of the EU did not have to meet them to be considered neutral 
In fact, the only issue on which Ukraine indeed reached a provisional agreement with Russia was that Ukraine would agree to its neutral status, but in exchange for international security guarantees from the Western countries. Which now brings me to the puzzle no.3 
For a multilateral treaty on the status of Ukraine to enter into force whatsoever, Ukraine had to obtain security guarantees from its biggest Western partners. Yet this was impossible from the outset for at least three reasons 
1/ Ukraine negotiated bilaterally with Russia and the Western partners were neither included, nor even in the loop. The big puzzle required therefore a separate talks between Ukraine and these partners that were expected to become security guarantors 
2/ On the Russian initiative, the draft treaty was to impose numerous obligations on the Western guarantors – not entering any military agreements with Ukraine, informing about military exercises and provisions of their military doctrines, cancelling sanctions on Russia 
3/ Russia demanded a far-reaching disarmament of Ukraine and de facto veto right on whether the Western guarantors would even come to Ukraine’s rescue in the case of an attack (“on the basis of the decisions agreed by all Guarantor States”, one of which was to be Russia itself) 
The treaty itself would provide for an immediate suspension of any Western military and military-technical asisstance to Ukraine, although the Russian troops would still remain on the Ukrainian territory, and Russia would have the right to control the Ukrainian inventories 
From the Russian perspective, the treaty was simply intended to incapacitate Ukraine, to which the Western states would never agree. They would become obliged to defend a defenceless and disarmed Ukrainian state, and would even need a Russian consent to do so! 
Moreover, the Treaty assumed that any reservations to its content were not possible. The Western countries were therefore expected to unconditionally accept the Russian terms. Simply speaking, the Russian side put forward a proposal that they knew the West would have to reject 
Suggesting now that Boris Johnson somehow torpedoed the talks is a brazen manipulation to cover up the fact that it was actually Putin who broke off the talks (which were going nowhere anyway). How come? 
As I have already mentioned, Ukraine did not agree with Russia on any of the three pieces of the puzzle, but was still willing to make concessions. The Russian delegation understood fortune was slowly turning in Ukraine’s favour, but Putin apparently did not share this view 

So here comes an interesting part! Putin himself was presented a (still inconclusive) draft treaty on 15 April 2022. Quoting the Russian sources, Reuters argues, however, that Putin rejected the agreement and pressed ahead with military campaign

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/
It became clear that the Russian delegation had no real mandate for talks with the Ukrainians, and that Putin himself was not willing to make any significant concessions, precisely what the Polish side kept saying since the talks started in Feb 2022. Russia was bluffing all along 
What we are seeing today is a coordinated effort to blame Ukraine for the failure of the 2022 talks. This is ignorance at best, at worst – a deliberate action to influence the Western public opinion to undermine support for further assistance to Ukraine [END] 

Tymofiy Mylovanov, the head of the Kyiv School of Economics, has posted a detailed assessment of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian targets in Russia. From the Thread Reader App:

It is ridiculous how Ukraine ignores high-priority targets and attacks low priority targets in Russia, says an observer criticizing Ukrainian attack on Russian oil refinery in Ryazan

Let’s take this argument seriously and think about what Ru targets should Ukraine hit first 1/Image

But first let’s look at what Ukraine is hitting now.

The recent deep strikes have focused on oil refineries. They have not focused on crude oil production, electricity grid, command centers, or weapon storage facilities. 2/Image

There are of course strikes on command centers and weapons storage facilities closer to the front lines. One recent example is an ATACAMS attack on Russian training center in Luhansk region 3/

I have also heard rumors that the U.S. doesn’t allow Ukraine to use ATACAMS and other long range weapons on the territory of Russia, even if this is 40 km from Kharkiv where Russians currently accumulate forces for an offensive 4/ 

So, Ukraine can be limited in its ability to strike on Russian territory.

Nonetheless, Ukraine continuously hits targets deep in Russia with Ukrainian produced drones. 5/

Unroll available on Thread Reader

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1781639121359831135

It is not true that Ukraine focuses only on oil refineries, but they constitute the majority of targets that are publicly known. 6/ 

There is of course a chance that Ukraine attacks defense production and weapons storage targets, but this information doesn’t get public.

Yes, in today’s world with cameras and phones everywhere, this is possibly but highly unlikely. 7/ 

The Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have been successful and media and politicians noticed them.

Drone attacks have knocked out around 14% of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity as of end-March.

8/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/

Russia is usually a net fuel exporter but the refinery disruptions have forced it to import.

It has imposed a 6-month gasoline export ban starting March 1 to prevent acute fuel shortages domestically 9/Image

Russia has also asked Kazakhstan to set up an emergency reserve of 100,000 metric tons of gasoline in case of shortages. 10/Image

It has also increased gasoline imports from Belarus. The cause is “unscheduled repairs” at Russian refineries following drone attacks. In the first half of March, imports reached nearly 3,000 metric tons, up from 590 tons in February and none in January /

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/

Politico writes it is “both a political and military problem for Moscow. As well as being essential for Russia’s war effort, cheap fuel is a key part of President Vladimir Putin’s offer to the public, an antidote to lagging wages and a weak ruble” 12/

Putin’s fuel problem: How Ukraine is sapping Russia’s diesel and gasolineUkraine is taking out oil refineries inside Russia, cratering Moscow’s supplies and sending local prices soaring.https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-diesel-prices-skyrocket-ukraine-war-drone-strikes-oil-refineries/
Politico: Diesel prices for Russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year 13/ 
Politico: “Ukraine’s ‘physical sanctions’ can accelerate the actual ones,” Maria Shagina said “Kyiv has found Moscow’s technological vulnerability and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries speed up the impact of Western sanctions” 14/ 

So, this Ukrainian strategy is working.

But what about other targets? The criticism I listed above states that Ukraine is better off hitting electricity grid, command centers, or munition warehouses 15/ 

Target Option 1. Electricity transmission or generating facilities.

The problem is that it is very difficult to create serious damage with the resources Ukraine has.

The case in point is the three winter Russian campaign to black out Ukraine 16/Image

In the beginning, it looked easy for Russia. Let’s hit some power plants and transformators in Ukraine said Russia.

But several thousand ballistic and cruise missiles later, Ukraine electricity grid stands. 17/ 

But why? Because the Soviet Union has built in a lot of spare capacity, redundancy and robustness. Yes, Ukraine needs air defense and have built protective infrastructure around the critical infrastructure, but Russia can do that too 18/ 

In addition, as we all have learned, drones can do limited damage to power plants and grids, we need missiles. But Ukraine doesn’t have them!

So what’s then Ukraine to do? It found a vulnerability where a small drone can do major damage – oil refineries. 19/ 

Interestingly, Russia can’t reciprocate because Ukraine doesn’t have oil refineries (any more). 20/ 
A similar argument applies to weapon depots. They are well protected and a drone is unlikely to do much damage. Ukraine has learned to store its monitor in such a way that Russians cannot easily destroy it, even with missiles. Russians are not stupid and they are doing the same /Image
You also need up to date intelligence about which depot to hit and where exactly as weapons are moved around. That’s not the case with oil refineries. 21/ 
Then, there is logistics. Ukraine can hit logistical infrastructure, terminals, railroad etc. but it’s hard. Again, Russia has tried to do it in Ukraine with very limited success. 22/ 
All these ideas about which targets to hit have been already tried in this war. What’s new in the Ukrainian strategy is that they have found a vulnerability : oil refineries. They are immobile, you can’t hide them, they are easily flammable, and there are large areas you can hit/ 

They are also very difficult and costly to rebuild.

The next step is for the Russia to figure out how to protect them and for Ukraine to learn how to bypass that protection. We will see what happens. X 

Sumy:

Two vehicles of russian air defence system BUK were hit by Ukrainian combat drones on Sumy axis. As a result, one vehicle with six missiles was fully destroyed the other was damaged. pic.twitter.com/hbJIvGSCeG

— SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES OF UKRAINE (@SOF_UKR) May 2, 2024

/2. Loitering munition used to destroy Russian BUK was identified as Ukrainian RAM-2S https://t.co/d8s918cUFW pic.twitter.com/iFgb3eVwt5

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 2, 2024

Tatarigami and his Frontintelligence team have a new assessment on the potential Russian assault on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. From the Thread Reader App:

May 2nd updates on frontline developments from the Frontelligence Insight, including the information about a potential Russian offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts

Before proceeding, please like and share to aid with visibility, as sometimes we get less visibility

🧵ThreadImage

2/ After successes in the Ocheretyne area, Russian forces now have slightly more than 10 kilometers of ground between them and the T0504 highway, which connects Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. However, another potential threat is emerging from the northward-leading road.Image
3/ The Russian expansion into Arkhangel’s’ke widens their range of possibilities and complicates Ukrainian efforts to establish a cohesive defensive system across such a broad area, particularly given the understaffing of many brigades. 
4/ Frontelligence Insight analyzed imagery from April 22nd and May 1st to identify new scorch marks left by artillery or other projectiles. The results indicate Russian efforts concentrated in the western and northern directions, suggesting they may attempt to exploit this road.Image
5/ As mentioned in our previous update, Russians launched multiple assaults in the Bilohorivka-Siversk area. The 6th separate MRB tried to assault Spirne, south of Bilohorivka, with 1 tank and 3 MTLBs carrying infantry. Only 1 MTLB survived and retreated. Photo: @4emberlenImage

6/ The Kharkiv-Sumy Area Offensive (?)

There is speculation about Russia’s intentions to invade Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, requiring clarification of key details.

We previously identified Russian forces equivalent to two corps stationed along the border of Sumy and Kharkiv. 

7/ Firstly, we have not observed the formation of a concentrated force capable of conducting a deep strike. Instead, we see scattered units that could potentially assemble into a striking force in the future, although this is not evident at present. 
8/ Based on available to us information, these units are mainly infantry-based and have insufficient tanks and armored vehicles for deep maneuvers. Therefore, any operations against Ukrainian forces in Sumy and Kharkiv will differ from the large-scale invasion seen in 2022 

9/ Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, suggests that Russia’s northern grouping, located across the border from Kharkiv, currently consists of 35,000 troops.

10/ This aligns with our earlier estimates of the force approximately equivalent to 2 Russian corps in the area. Skibitsky anticipates that Russia’s main offensive will commence “at the end of May or beginning of June.”Image
11/ While their increased presence poses some threat, the current force levels are insufficient for a significant deep maneuver into Ukrainian territory. Our team will continue to monitor the area to identify changes 

12/ Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed our content, please consider liking and sharing it with others.

Additionally, if you’d like to support us further, you can make a donation through our Buy Me a Coffee page.

Urozhaine:

/2. Another two Russian T-62 losses, also from the Urozhaine area. https://t.co/ta8zcmpUWxhttps://t.co/oL7UljPbqe pic.twitter.com/KKaxfTOiyh

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 2, 2024

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

⚡️Russians use kamikaze drones over nuclear reactors of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, – Ukrainian Defense Intelligence.

The Ministry showed a video from a Russian drone, obtained with the help of electronic surveillance equipment, which shows the UT4D. TT marking… pic.twitter.com/UGBzUC6Ahi

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 2, 2024

⚡️Russians use kamikaze drones over nuclear reactors of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, – Ukrainian Defense Intelligence.

The Ministry showed a video from a Russian drone, obtained with the help of electronic surveillance equipment, which shows the UT4D. TT marking (indicating that the drone was supplied through the Russian Defense Ministry).

The drones are flying over the power units of the ZNPP towards the constantly shelled Nikopol and Marhanets communities. The Main Directorate of Intelligence added that the occupiers have equipped launch sites for their drones right next to the 6th reactor. In addition, since the summer of 2023, the Russians have been using the territory of the captured nuclear power plant for training FPV drone pilots.

Russian occupied Crimea:

2024 list of 6 Main Types of Bridges
•Arch Bridges.
•Cantilever Bridges.
•Cable-Stayed Bridges.
•Suspension Bridges.
•Tied-Arch Bridges.
•Kerch Bridges. pic.twitter.com/WVNP79VAjw

— Sergiy Kyslytsya 🇺🇦 (@SergiyKyslytsya) May 1, 2024

Smolensk Oblast, Russia:

Russian Telegram channels showed a video of the aftermath of a drone attack in Russia's Smolensk region last night.

It is reported that locals heard a series of explosions before the fire broke out.

Russian Krasnodar and Orlov regions also reported drones and explosions. pic.twitter.com/sLehVH9YLn

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 2, 2024

Moscow:

After being interviewed by Tucker Carlson, Russia’s leading fascist Alexander Dugin gushes about how much they have in common and says he doesn't want Americans to move to Russia, because he prefers they damage the West from within.
My latest for @CEPA:https://t.co/A5iguemRh3

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 2, 2024

Julia Davis at CEPA:

Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson released an interview with a Russian fascist ideologue, Alexander Dugin, on April 30, which was pre-recorded during his pilgrimage to Moscow to interview the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The program did not disappoint. For Russia’s propagandists, it provided a successful entry into American living rooms. For Dugin’s many detractors, it was another confirmation of the madness that lies close to the heart of the Russian regime.

Sometimes described as “Putin’s Rasputin,” only partly because of his heavy beard, Dugin wholeheartedly supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and describes Ukrainians as a race of degenerates who crept up from sewers and deserve to be eliminated through genocide. Ukrainians should be “killed, killed, killed,” the self-described philosopher has suggested.

The interview followed the by-now established Carlson pattern, with an earnest-faced broadcaster, his face creased with concentration, respectfully giving his subject the opportunity to make his points without interruption.

Most journalists would have used this opportunity to question Dugin about his ties to and influence on Putin, as well as his justification of mass murder and any possible connection to the fate of his daughter, killed in a 2022 car bomb explosion that may also have been targeting him.

To the contrary, Carlson chose to stay away from Russian politics and instead allowed Dugin to rail against “the Anglo-Saxon world.” Without elaborating on Dugin’s genocidal views, Carlson simply noted: “His ideas are considered so dangerous, the Ukrainian government murdered his daughter, and Amazon won’t sell his books.” (Some of Dugin’s books and interviews are, in fact, available on Amazon.)

Russian propagandists have long dreamt of injecting their ideas and twisted rendition of history into the American mainstream, often remarking that Americans are stupid and uneducated enough to believe just about anything.

Head of RT Margarita Simonyan has repeatedly stressed that Moscow should recruit and utilize Western influencers to reach foreign audiences. Even after being ousted by Fox News, Carlson is delivering in spades, which encouraged Dugin into post-interview interviews on state media to celebrate his successful penetration of the Western mind.

On his Telegram channel, Dugin boasted about 6 million views for his sit down with Carlson and even urged Russian authorities to unblock X (formerly Twitter) since it is now controlled by the “libertarian Elon Musk.” He expressed excitement about piercing the veil of the Western mainstream media, describing Carlson as “Journalist No. 1 in the world.”

Dugin told Carlson that the West loathes Putin because of his “values,” and not because of his military aggression. “Given someone with nuclear weapons is standing strong defending traditional values that you’re going to abolish, I think they have some basis for this Russophobia and the hatred for Putin.” Nodding along, Tucker bemoaned the “very serious” hatred the West has for Putin.

Interviewed by Roman Golovanov on the Solovyov Live channel on April 30, in a segment entitled, “Tucker was told about the Army of the Antichrist,” the host began by stating, “We often frame our current confrontation with the West as a battle against the Army of the Antichrist. Were you able to get this through to him?”

The American had come to learn and listen, instead of arriving with preconceived notions about right and wrong, Dugin said. He lamented the need to edit down what had been a long interview, so losing most of his philosophical musings.

The 61-year-old Russian claimed that Carlson had compared his interview with his earlier sit-down with Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán and praised both Dugin and Orbán as representatives of a culture and a civilization that is “much deeper” than that of the West. The interviewer’s reports from Moscow during his February trip included ruminations that Russian supermarkets were well-stocked and that Stalin’s metro system was free of graffiti.

According to Dugin, Carlson complained about disappearing freedoms in the United States — although how much sympathy he got from a cheerleader for the totalitarian system is unclear. He also recounted Carlson’s claim that people like Putin and Dugin understand Westerners better than they (Westerners) understand themselves.

It was disappointing that Americans have yet to concur with Putin’s view that they are part of a Satanist civilization and belong to a culture of the Antichrist. Nonetheless, he had noticed progress, with conservative Americans now “discovering” conservative Russia and thereby rethinking events in their own country.

After Carlson’s flop of an interview with Putin, which led to widespread mockery in the US and the broader democratic West, and during which the Russian despot treated Carlson with open disrespect, the regime’s propagandists had complained of a failure in approach.

Simonyan vocally argued that Carlson had asked anything about “traditional values” — which may be the reason Dugin stepped in to fill that gap.

Golovanov rejoiced that thanks to Tucker, as he called him, Americans are discovering another side of Russia, as opposed to knowing only figures such as the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was being killed at the Kremlin’s hands at about the same time as Carlson’s Putin interview.

Dugin told Golovanov he has a lot in common with the American broadcaster and claimed that both are victims of Western “cancel culture.” The host proceeded to quote another fellow propagandist, Sergey Mardan, who described Dugin as “Putin’s philosopher” and claimed that the volume of his works would put any American professor to shame.

As for the big picture, Dugin wanted everyone to grasp, it’s all about Putin — as a visual embodiment of Russia, its tsar and ruler, who is preoccupied with the fate of the world and all humanity.

The state propaganda machine’s enthusiasm for Carlson is undiminished. To mouthpieces like Golovanov, he represents the “white Christians” who are moving to Russia with their entire families in such numbers that the price of land in Russia would soon skyrocket, as Americans are joined by Canadians, French people, Italians, and Germans.

This is a vision Dugin does not share. He cautioned Golovanov against welcoming Westerners into Russia, stating that it would be better for them to stay in their own countries and “damage the Antichrist from within.” He reasoned that by moving from America to Russia, these families would simply augment the nearly universal pro-Putin vote and, therefore, make no difference.

According to Dugin, only by remaining in the United States could these people vote for someone like Donald Trump or Tucker Carlson, which would destroy the West from within and benefit Russia much more.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

There are no new Patron tweets, so here’s some adjacent material from Ukraine’s Emergency Services in Odesa.

В Одесі попрощалися з собакою Кєтті, якого вбила російська касетна ракета 3 дні тому

Кінологічні розрахунки силових структур разом із господарями та просто небайдужими одеситами прийшли підтримати Кєтті та віддали честь і вшанували памʼять усіх тварин, які стали жертвами війни pic.twitter.com/b535zA1MCM

— Олег Володарський (@volodarskijo) May 2, 2024

The machine translation:

In Odesa, they said goodbye to the dog Ketty, who was killed by a Russian cluster missile 3 days ago

Canine members* of the security forces, together with the owners and simply caring Odessa residents, came to support Ketty and paid tribute and honored the memory of all the animals who became victims of the war

For some reason the machine translation rendered this as “cynological calculations.” I was going to use Anton Gerashchenko’s tweet of the video with his English caption, but it quote tweeted his tweet with Ketty and her human after the attack. I have avoided posting that here as you don’t need to see it. It is enough that I saw it for you. Here is what Gerashchenko wrote about Ketty’s funeral:

Odesa said goodbye to Ketty the dog, killed by a Russian cluster missile three days ago. Many dogs were present at the farewell ceremony for Ketty, including dogs who work in Ukrainian Emergency Services. This farewell was to honor the memory of all animals who became victims of this horrible unjust war.

Open thread!

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