Today, We Received a Decision – the U.S. Assistance, Which Will Be Felt by Both the Warriors on the Frontline, and the Cities and Villages Suffering from Russian Terror – Address by the President

20 April 2024 – 21:30

Dear Ukrainians!

From early morning today, various regions of our country have been experiencing air alerts and Russian strikes. From the east to the south… Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk regions, Kherson and the region, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. Missiles, drone strikes, artillery. There is a lot of destruction — houses, port infrastructure, and energy facilities. There are casualties and, unfortunately, fatalities. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Throughout the day, our air defense system was in action, there were responses to Russian strikes, the rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, and all the services performed their duties.

But this day is still a little different. Today, we received the long-awaited decision: the American support package we’ve been fighting for so hard. And it is a very significant package that will be felt by both our warriors on the frontline and our cities and villages suffering from Russian terror. The U.S. House of Representatives voted today.

I thank everyone who supported our package – this is a life-saving decision. I am grateful personally to Speaker Mike Johnson, to all American hearts who, like us in Ukraine, feel that Russian evil definitely should not prevail. I hope that the package will be considered in the U.S. Senate and submitted to President Biden’s desk quickly enough.

We appreciate every manifestation of support for our state and independence, for our people, and for our lives that Russia wants to bury in ruins. America has shown its leadership from the very first days of this war. And this kind of American leadership is crucial for the maintenance of an international order in the world based on rules and predictability of life for all nations. We will certainly use American support to strengthen both our nations and bring a just end to this war closer – a war that Putin must lose.

And I thank the entire Ukrainian team, everyone who works and does everything to bring this outcome closer. I thank all the representatives of our state, all our diplomats who are working to increase the support for Ukraine, all the representatives of the public sector, every volunteer, all the friends of Ukraine. I am grateful to my team. The world unites for Ukraine when Ukrainians unite for independence.

And today I would like to honor those of our people who have shown their best in the aftermath of the Russian strikes over the week – helping people, protecting lives. These are the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, our medical workers, police officers. Everyone who works on the scene after the hits. Everyone who rescues people from under the rubble, stops fires, and saves the injured. Thank you all!

I would like to mention some of them in particular… Dnipro: Denys Mikheyev, Artem Serha, Dmytro Nikolayenko – these guys are from the State Emergency Service. Vitaliy Arkhypov – an emergency doctor in the Dnipro region, Yevhen Holitsyn – an emergency feldsher. I would also like to mention the police officers: Oleksiy Bondarenko and Vitaliy Andriyanov. Thank you! Karyna Kolisnychenko – a dog handler from the Pavlohrad search and rescue unit. Thank you for every life saved.

Odesa, SES: Yuriy Sukhorukov, Vitaliy Telehus and Artem Kopechynskyi. Thank you, guys!

Chernihiv: Artem Lysenko – a firefighter, Vadym Avramenko and Maksym Zhylko – also employees of the SES in the region, as well as police officers Andriy Vovk and Bohdan Tkachuk. Thank you! I am also grateful to Natalia Nosenok, a nurse who really cares about people and helps them.

I am grateful to everyone who cares about Ukrainians, about life in our country, about their city, their community, about our entire country! And I am especially thankful to each of our warriors. To all those who destroy the Russian occupier, who hold the frontline and thus preserve Ukraine on the world map. We are doing everything to ensure that our warriors have as many opportunities as possible so that this war ends as soon as possible on our terms, Ukrainian terms.

Glory to Ukraine!

I am grateful to the United States House of Representatives, both parties, and personally Speaker Mike Johnson for the decision that keeps history on the right track.

Democracy and freedom will always have global significance and will never fail as long as America helps to…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 20, 2024

I am grateful to the United States House of Representatives, both parties, and personally Speaker Mike Johnson for the decision that keeps history on the right track.

Democracy and freedom will always have global significance and will never fail as long as America helps to protect it. The vital U.S. aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger.

Just peace and security can only be attained through strength.

We hope that bills will be supported in the Senate and sent to President Biden’s desk. Thank you, America!

Hope is not a strategy!

Lithuania:

🇱🇹🇺🇦Today, another shipment of Lithuanian military aid reached Ukraine. We delivered a disassembled light attack aircraft L-39ZA "Albatros" to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. L-39ZA "Albatros" was used in @LTU_Army to train fighter control officers, ensuring pilots' combat readiness. pic.twitter.com/sS3STsu8N2

— Lithuanian MOD 🇱🇹 (@Lithuanian_MoD) April 20, 2024

I’m not sure what the Ukrainians are going to do with just one of these, but every little bit helps.

Our weapons of Victory!

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/DOM22rYJkV

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 20, 2024

Head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov shared some details about shooting down a Russian strategic bomber at a distance of 300 kilometers.

It was a lengthy and carefully prepared operation.

📹: BBC News Ukrainian https://t.co/pd3SAk1JPK pic.twitter.com/73RGOxP5Qi

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 19, 2024

Novomykhailivka:

Repelling Russian attack on the Novomykhailivka front. Video by the Shadow air reconnaissance unit. https://t.co/LUTJDTWDMe pic.twitter.com/fHqsbENk9P

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 20, 2024

Bakhmut:

Said to be AASM strike on Russian positions in Bakhmut https://t.co/LGsFGnKOe0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 20, 2024

Russian occupied areas of Ukraine:

After they beat Azat Azatyan so bad blood came out of his ears the Russians began to interrogate him about his faith. “When did you become a Baptist? When did you become an American spy?”…on how Russia’s war against evangelicals is a war against America https://t.co/vE14HCgPTO

— peter pomerantsev (@peterpomeranzev) April 20, 2024

Peter Pomerantsev in Time:

After they beat Azat Azatyan so bad blood came out of his ears; after they sent electric shocks up his genitals; after they wacked him with pipes and truncheons, the Russians began to interrogate him about his faith. “When did you become a Baptist? When did you become an American spy?” Azat tried to explain that in Ukraine there was freedom of religion, you could just choose your faith. But his torturers saw the world the same way as their predecessors at the KGB did: an American church is just a front for the American state.

Azat was dragged back to the makeshift cell in the occupied city of Berdiansk, in southern Ukraine, where he was held with six others in a cellar that had a bucket for a toilet and hard mattresses on the floor. The other inmates wondered how he could be religious when the punishments meted out to him were so much worse than to them. Azat answered he felt God was always with him. He prayed for the other inmates to be spared. When the torturers returned they left the others alone but told him to come with them: “This time we will kill you.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is accompanied with a strategic effort to repress, control, and crush religious groups outside of the Kremlin controlled Moscow Patriarchate, the Russian Orthodox Church. There are over thirty cases of religious clergy killed and kidnapped. 109 known cases of interrogations, forced expulsions, imprisonments, arrests. 600 houses of worship destroyed. And these are just the confirmed numbers, with the real ones in information blackout of the occupied territories will much likely be higher.

Evangelicals are targeted by the Russians disproportionally, and Azat’s story is typical for Russia’s systemic persecution of Protestants in occupied Ukraine. Protestants were the victims of 34 percent of the reported persecution events, and 48 percent in the Zaporizhzhia region where Azat was held. Baptists made up 13 percent of victims – the largest single group after Ukrainian Orthodox. Under Russian control 400 Baptist congregations have been lost, 17% of the total in Ukraine.

There’s a reason for this. Protestants flourished in the democratic decades since the end of the U.S.S.R. Baptists are the third largest denomination in Ukraine. The mayor of Kyiv between 2006-2012 was an evangelical. And for the Russian occupiers they are perceived as agents of America.

Petro Dudnyk, Pastor of the Good News Church, explains that the occupying forces “thought and spoke like this: you are the American faith, the Americans are our enemies, the enemies must be destroyed.” Inside Russia Jehovah’s Witnesses are banned, as is missionary work for Mormons. Evangelical groups are constrained by laws banning missionary activity and labelling some groups as “undesirable organizations.” The U.S. Congress Commission on International Religious Freedom considers Russia as one of the world’s “worst violators” of religious freedom, on par with Iran and Pakistan.

What this persecution highlights is that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is more than just the latest iteration of the Kremlin’s centuries old attempt to crush Ukraine’s freedom. It is also part of the Kremlin’s larger war against America. By hurting those who practice an “American” religion the Kremlin can claim it is striking against American power—while picking on the powerless.

“Your church has no right to exist, as it has connections with America and other Western countries,” Russian authorities told the deacon of the Pentecostal church in Nova Kakhovka, Oleksandr Prokopchuk. They arrested him and his 19-year-old son. Both were later found dead in a forest. In occupied Sloviansk four members of the Evangelical Church of the Transformation were accused of being American spies because some U.S. dollars were found in their pockets. They were subsequently shot and killed.

But it’s not just individual clergy Russian forces go after, sometimes it’s whole congregations. As soon as Russia take over a city armed men turn up during prayers. The investigative news outlet, The Counter-Offensive, has reported on the fate of an Adventist congregation in Donetsk, where, the pastor explains, “every week or two there were searches. People would come with machine guns. Sometimes a tank would come. …they said, ‘You are Americans, this is an American church, this is not [a Russian] church. We were treated like dogs. They beat us. Some were killed. Some disappeared.”

When Russian occupying forces shut down the Melitopol Christian Church, they used sledge hammers to break into the building. Members were interrogated as to whether the church was hiding any Americans. The house of worship was expropriated and given to a Russian Ministry. Its fifty foot cross was chopped down. Click here for video.

Sometimes the Russians also try to “cure” protestants. Viktor Cherniiavskyi, was held for 25 days, beaten with a baseball bat and given electro-shocks. A Russian Orthodox priest was present in this process, and tried to cast demons out of him for being an evangelical Christian. The torturers used a taser to help the exorcism along.

The way the priest and the torturer worked together is emblematic of the interconnection between the Russian state and the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. The Moscow Patriarch, Kirill, who was reportedly a KGB agent in the 1970s, has vociferously supported the invasion of Ukraine, openly backs the destruction of Ukraine’s sovereignty and promises Russian soldiers their sins will be washed away. When Russian forces accuse evangelicals of being agents of the U.S. they are projecting how the Moscow patriarchate aids and abets Putin. The tradition of priests working for spy agencies continues with Orthodox priests in Ukraine who report to the Moscow Patriarch have also been found guilty of reporting directly to the Russian security services.

Only 4% of Ukrainians Patriarch remain faithful to Kirill’s Moscow Patriarchate—the vast majority have moved to the Orthodox Church under the Kyiv Patriarchate.  Moreover 85% of Ukrainians think that the Moscow branch of the Orthodox Church is a security threat. The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a bill that would prohibit religious organisations that are controlled from a country waging armed aggression against Ukraine. Steven Moore, a former Republican strategist who now runs a center documenting religious crimes in Ukraine, compares the approach to the struggle to legislate against TikTok in the US. According to Moore “Congress wants to ban TikTok unless it gets new ownership. The parliament of Ukraine has drafted a bill to close individual churches affiliated with Russia unless they find ‘new ownership’ and renounce the Russian affiliation.”

But such nuance is lost on some lawmakers and media in America, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson, who accuse the Ukrainian government of attacking religious freedom. It’s a twisted situation thinks Moore: while Russia literally murders and tortures Protestants, Ukraine is attacked for trying to find a balance between religious freedom and security.

When I asked Azat about Americans who think Russia a bastion of Christianity while Ukraine persecutes Christians he shook his head in bemusement: “The Russians have come here to kill and oppress—that is against God’s law, let alone human law.”

Smolensk, Russia:

At night a drone attack in multiple regions of Russia was reported. One of the targets of the attack was an oil storage facility in Kardymovo, Smolensk region. 285km from the frontline.
(54.8797115, 32.4317117) pic.twitter.com/8lVVKVFuYu

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 20, 2024

Seems like these Lukoil and Neftika oil depots in Kardymovo, east of Smolensk, will bring less revenue to fuel Russia’s war machine pic.twitter.com/iMQtoX4gxJ

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 20, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Listen to your heart ❤️ pic.twitter.com/X4EAsVDmr1

— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 20, 2024

USA 🇺🇸
Thank you 🥰

— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 20, 2024

This Year Cannot be Just a Year of Further Discussions, We Need Decisions of Our Partners – Address of the President of Ukraine

19 April 2024 – 22:12

Dear Ukrainians!

Today is a difficult day… Missile strikes. Right in the center of the city of Dnipro, the regular buildings. A house, a railway station. In addition, Synelnykove and Kryvyi Rih were also hit today. Strikes in Nikopol… Strikes in the Odesa region – again on the ports, on the export of our products. Today there was shelling and strikes in Donetsk, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions… There are many victims. Everyone is being helped. And I thank everyone who supports our people, who eliminates the consequences of Russian evil. My condolences to all those who have lost their loved ones.

When Ukraine appeals to partners for air defense systems that they have – in warehouses, in storage bases, but that are needed here, right here, to protect lives – we are talking about a true alliance. And here in Ukraine, we appreciate the efforts of every leader, every state that is really active, really committed to fulfilling their promises and trying to increase the capabilities of our air shield.

It was Dnipro where I addressed today the participants of the first extraordinary meeting of our Ukraine-NATO Council. It was a meeting at the level of the defence ministers of the Alliance countries. Unfortunately, Russian terrorists had too much time, the years of this war, to destroy Ukrainian life. This year cannot be just a year of further discussions. Everything is quite specific now. Ukraine needs air defence, and the partners can help with it. We need artillery, and this is something the world has. Only sufficient numbers of air defence systems and fighter jets can drive the Russian aviation away. We need decisions. And decisions are possible. Everyone in the world who wants peace has to not be afraid to demonstrate their power to protect life.

I am grateful to everyone who is with Ukraine, with our people and with our defence now. I am  grateful to everyone in Dnipro and in other cities and settlements who direct their forces in order to make sure that our county stays strong. Please, take care of your neighbours when it’s needed. Take care of our Ukraine and spread the truth in the world, by all means. The truth that the world can do it.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is the video of his address to the Ukraine-NATO Council followed by the English transcript:

It is not fair to resist bombs merely with bravery – the President during the extraordinary meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council

19 April 2024 – 18:20

Dear friends,

Thank you for a prompt convocation of our Council. Speedy reaction now literally means security.

Today I was on the frontline – right where the Russian army is amassing most of its efforts for assaults. Unlike our soldiers, the occupiers have enough weapons, a sufficient number of shells, and worst of all – they, unfortunately, still have control over our sky. In these conditions our Ukrainian soldiers – real heroes – are doing everything possible to deter Russian assaults. But it is not fair to resist bombs merely with bravery, the valor of our people cannot be the only defense from drones and missiles – our positions on the frontline need real protection from air strikes. And our cities, our villages, the entire territory of Ukraine needs real protection of the skies. This morning, our cities of Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Synelnykove were struck by Russian missile attacks. In Dnipro, an ordinary residential building was destroyed, and people were trapped under the rubble. A railway and a bus stations were damaged… This is just one morning in one city, yet Russian terrorists strike our country daily and nightly in various cities and communities. Such cities as Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Dnipro, among others, do not have a reliable defense against Russian terrorists. When I was preparing for this conversation, they hit the sea port Pivdennyi. Several missiles struck port facilities, not only Ukrainian, but Singapore’s as well.

From the beginning of this year alone – a bit more than just three months – Ukraine has been hit with almost one thousand two hundred Russian rockets, including aeroballistic and also more than one thousand five hundred ‘Shaheds’. Part of this evil we managed to neutralize – shoot down. But only a part, unfortunately, the smaller part of the rockets, not all ‘Shaheds’ which the Iranian regime shared with Russia, and not all of eight thousand five hundred guided bombs. And Russia has resorted to more calculated massive strikes that destroy our energy system.

It is obvious that Ukraine alone does not have sufficient strength to defend itself from Russian terrorist strikes. And the truth is that the absolute majority of the world countries and of our common Euroatlantic community similarly would lack just their own strength to defend life. This is why NATO was created and this is what alliances work in the world for – when all together defend life, evil will not defeat all – one by one. And we see the effect of this principle – we see a determined alliance – there are those among you who showed it to the entire world.

Dear friends!

The world has seen so far the alliance which does not have equals in countering terror. Israel was not left alone and almost one hundred percent of the strikes against it were neutralized. It is a convincing efficiency of the air shield of NATO countries, your air defense, your combat aviation – everything that now worked in the skies of the Middle East and destroyed not only Iranian drones and rockets but also several dangerous myths. Especially the myth that NATO members’ action in defense of the third country from drones and rockets involves NATO in the war, and that shooting down ‘Shaheds’ or rockets can supposedly be treated as direct confrontation with the army that used this weapon. For allied actions in the Middle East there was no need to activate the Fifth article, and the allies were acting together to protect a state that is not a member of the Alliance.

Ukraine did not ask you to send your soldiers to fight against Russian occupiers – Ukrainians are holding the frontline on their own, receiving military assistance. But now the assistance is still very limited, and in particular, we’re still waiting for new support packages from the United States – American support has been in question for too long. Everything that is questioned for the defense of freedom is a precise answer for Putin – he is tempted to act when the West slows down.

Ukraine has asked and asks all of you to support our actions with a sufficient number of weapons and shells – and it is a realistic request. I am grateful to every leader and every country that now, while we are waiting for a vitally important decision from the US Congress, offers their own initiatives to cope with the shortage of weapons – including artillery, drones, and other initiatives. But the results of each initiative can be measured only by real capabilities of our soldiers on the frontline – real shells, real weapons in their hands. Ukraine asks you to do everything so that the initiatives for support are realized fully.

It is obvious that now, while Russia has air advantage and can rely on its drone and rocket terror, our capabilities on the ground, unfortunately, are limited. And you have shown how it may be solved.

NATO unites not only the military strength of its member countries but also the humanitarian spirit of the nations. It is an Alliance that protects people and lives, and hence must in its actions follow the idea that people are equal in their dignity and rights, and that given by God – life is equally valuable everywhere on the Earth. That’s why the difference in determination to protect life and freedom looks so strange – somewhere it is stronger, elsewhere weaker. Somewhere ‘Shaheds’ are shot down and elsewhere the same ‘Shaheds’ can fly along the trajectory of terror. Somewhere ballistic missiles are destroyed while elsewhere, unfortunately, they reach their targets. Somewhere delivery of really modern weapons is sufficient to protect life while elsewhere twentieth-century weapons are the highest yardstick in many respects, in particular regarding aviation.

Putin must be brought down to earth, and our sky must become safe again, and it is real. And it depends fully on your choice. Choice whether life is indeed equally valuable everywhere. Choice whether you have an equal attitude to all partners. Choice whether we indeed are allies.

We are telling this directly – to defend, we need seven more ‘Patriots’ or similar air defense systems, and it’s a minimum number. They can save many lives and really change the situation. You have such systems. Please. Secondly: we are talking for quite a while about a million artillery shells for Ukraine. They must be finally delivered to the frontline. Thirdly, our long-ranged ability. It is absurd when partners are afraid of their strength. The more long-ranged weapons our soldiers have in their hands, the closer peace is. The frontline really needs long-range rockets and artillery now. Fourth: aviation. If we have a fighter jet coalition, a sufficient number of jets is needed to really overcome the Russian air fleet. It’s not about the number of promises, but the real number of jets in the sky. And fifth is speed. This year we can’t wait for decisions to be made. I ask you to consider as soon as possible our request for your determination – each of its elements.

Thank you so much for your attention and support!

And I am grateful to every country and every leader for all the support provided to us.

Слава Україні!

Ukraine vitally needs more air defense systems – to protect our people and our homes, and also to give a breath of fresh air to our military in their battle against the enemy.

I highlighted this in my speech at the extraordinary session of the Ukraine-@NATO Council, convened at… pic.twitter.com/02sxUbLGYl

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) April 19, 2024

Ukraine vitally needs more air defense systems – to protect our people and our homes, and also to give a breath of fresh air to our military in their battle against the enemy.

I highlighted this in my speech at the extraordinary session of the Ukraine-@NATO
Council, convened at the urgent request of President Volodymyr @ZelenskyyUa.

I stressed once again that 97 percent of russian missiles, drones, and bombs hit civilian targets.

Dozens of Ukrainian civilians have been killed and hundreds injured as a result just in recent weeks.

And this is a real genocide of the Ukrainian people.

To stop this flow of murder, more air defense systems and ammunition for them must be sent to Ukraine now!

Grateful to NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg for his strong calls to member countries to strengthen the defense of Ukrainian skies.

Grateful to all our allies who have already responded to this initiative.

The cost:

Really a lot of people came to pay respects. St. Michael’s Cathedral hall was really crowded.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 19, 2024

Holland:

+€200 million for air defense and artillery ammunition from the Netherlands.

Thank you for your unwavering support. Together, we will overcome the russian evil.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱 https://t.co/e9AxdyLdxH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 19, 2024

The US:

The Pentagon is ready to respond quickly with security assistance for Ukraine,as soon as new aid is approved by Congress, says @PentagonPresSec. "As we've done in the past, we can move within days…The pkg would likely include things like air defense and artillery capabilities." https://t.co/1TKYSQi32F

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) April 19, 2024

Fingers crossed this weekend! #Ukraine https://t.co/bVamEL7ImV

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) April 19, 2024

From The Washington Post:

The Pentagon has a massive infusion of military aid for Ukraine “ready to go,” U.S. officials said, once a long-delayed funding measure, which is expected to pass the House this weekend, clears the Senate next week and President Biden signs it into law.

The Defense Department, which has warned that Ukraine would steadily cede more ground to Russian forces and face staggering casualties without urgent action on Capitol Hill, began assembling the assistance package well before the coming votes in a bid to speed the process, these people said.

One official, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the Biden administration’s planning, said that once the $95 billion foreign aid bill is finalized, it would take less than a week for some of the weapons to reach the battlefield, depending on where they are stored. The legislation includes about $60 billion for Ukraine, with most of the remainder slated for Israel and U.S. partners in Asia.

It was not immediately clear how expansive the package will be, though it is almost certain to contain desperately needed ammunition for systems Ukrainian personnel rely on most, including 155mm shells used in NATO howitzers and munitions for medium-range rocket artillery. Since the war began, individual U.S. transfers have ranged in value from hundreds of millions of dollars to more than $2 billion.

As the aid bill languished in Congress for months, officials in Washington and in Kyiv said Ukraine’s front-line units were rationing a rapidly evaporating stockpile of armaments and that soon Moscow would have a 10-to-1 advantage in artillery rounds.

It is also probable the Pentagon will provide Ukraine with a fresh tranche of air defense equipment and ammunition, a vital need to combat Russia’s relentless campaign against the country’s civilian infrastructure. NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday he was convening with allies to discuss ways to bolster such capabilities, with a focus on the high-end Patriot system.

A Pentagon spokesman, Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder, declined to comment. News of the planned transfer was reported earlier by Politico.

Then this week, Russia struck the northern city of Chernihiv and the eastern city of Dnipro and surrounding villages, killing dozens of people and badly damaging infrastructure. Both attacks could have been averted, Ukrainian officials said, if Ukraine had the air defense supplies it needs.

After the attacks, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, pointed to what they called the double standard in the United States and other Western allies assisting Israel in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones last week while failing to adequately help Ukraine, which is under fire each day.

“American support has been in question for too long,” Zelensky said Friday, addressing the Ukraine-NATO Council. “When it comes to the defense of freedom, everything that is in question gives a clear answer to Putin. It prompts him to act whenever the West slows down.”

More at the link!

Washington, DC:

This was the big one. Ukraine aid is on track to pass the House and @SenSchumer says the Senate should be ready to stay in town to immediately take it up. https://t.co/UivTyE7pf7

— Doug Klain (@DougKlain) April 19, 2024

316-94: House approves a rule for debating foreign aid bills, after far-right Republicans opposed it.

More Democrats (165) voted for the GOP rule than Republicans (151). 55 Republicans and 39 Dems voted “no.”

Final votes in the House are scheduled for Saturday. pic.twitter.com/dJLFKQ2hjj

— The Recount (@therecount) April 19, 2024

Sen. Markwayne Mullin raised an interesting point to me last year. Johnson opposed Ukraine $ as a member, but as speaker has privileged access to classified intel that few House members do:

"When you get informed on Ukraine, you get a different opinion"https://t.co/x3dTt7MgWk

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig (@josephzeballos) April 19, 2024

Also in DC:

Prof.@TimothyDSnyder shuts down Marjorie Taylor Greene after raising the slur of "nazis in Ukraine" (spoiler: it's russians, it's always russians) pic.twitter.com/bAvMHxQKVU

— 𝕸𝖆𝖙 ✙ (@MatBabiak) April 18, 2024

Marjorie Taylor-Greene, in a nod to Viktor Orban, has submitted an amendment to the Ukraine aid bill barring funding until "restrictions on Hungarians in Transcarpathia" and other minorities are lifted. pic.twitter.com/yBIoNPmcYM

— Kareem Rifai 🌐 (@KareemRifai) April 18, 2024

A GREENE NEW DEAL

Whiplash: Marjorie Taylor Greene Transitions from a Fool to Russia’s Useful Tool

Mike Johnson is no longer Russia’s No.1 favorite, he’s been replaced by Greene, who was once roundly mocked on Russian TV.

My latest for @thedailybeast https://t.co/L0Fyxsdsad

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) April 19, 2024

Julia Davis in The Daily Beast:

Now, Russia’s former favorites have been edged out by Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene—the new darling of the Kremlin-controlled state television. In the past, Greene was routinely mocked for her uneducated statements and used as a prime example of how stupid all Americans are, which is a popular refrain in Russian media. After laughing at Greene for confusing gazpacho with the Nazi Gestapo and claiming that California wildfires have been caused by “Jewish space lasers,” leading propagandists described her antics as evidence of the “mental debilitation” of Western politicians.

But the mood changed once Greene started to say things that the Russian propaganda apparatus found extremely useful. Her Tweets that labeled NATO as a useless organization and demanded the U.S. withdraw from the alliance it is currently leading were featured on state TV and described as “sensational.” Greene’s rhetoric has been interpreted by state TV host Evgeny Popov to mean that “She believes that Americans should help Putin win. Yes, you heard that right. To help him win in Ukraine.”

Greene’s baseless claims that the U.S. is “supporting Nazis in Ukraine” were likewise lauded by state TV propagandists and showcased on multiple channels. Previous mockery did not deter the state-controlled media from gladly using Greene’s misleading statements to their advantage. The U.S. congresswoman was starting to become a long-distance darling for the Moscow crowd, prominently featured on state television and adored to the point that the Kremlin’s favorite propagandist Vladimir Solovyov proclaimed, “Thank goodness she exists.”

The importance of influential Westerners repeating the Russian talking points is constantly underscored by the head of RT, Margarita Simonyan—who admits that her state-controlled network is running covert operations in the United States and other countries. She described RT’s efforts as the “empire of covert projects that is working with public opinion.”

Greene is now routinely showcased on the most popular programs as a prime example that the cracks in the GOP support for Ukraine are “good signals from Washington.” Solovyov and the guests on his show even touted Marjorie as a possible replacement for Russia’s perennial favorite, Donald Trump, as the next U.S. president—while acknowledging that the congresswoman is “somewhat funny.”

Greene’s latest hijinks have firmly cemented her status as one of Moscow’s most useful tools. Leading propagandists lauded her efforts to threaten Mike Johnson’s speakership for his belated decision to allow a vote on the life-saving U.S. aid to Ukraine. They similarly rejoiced over a flurry of amendments to the Ukraine aid bill Greene filed with the House Rules Committee, including one to require any member who votes in favor of the package “to conscript in the Ukrainian military.”

Greene filed more than 20 amendments to the bill and most of them sound as though they have been handcrafted by Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry. Some of them demand that Ukraine close all its bio-laboratories, to prove that “Christian churches in Ukraine are able to operate free from government interference” and bar funding until “restrictions on Hungarians in Transcarpathia” and other minorities are lifted.

In light of Greene’s own prior statements, one might imagine that the plight of Hungarians in Transcarpathia is not something she would organically discover or take any interest in. Perhaps coincidentally, the same narratives are being actively promoted by the Russian media.

During Thursday’s broadcast of The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, expert on America Dmitry Drobnitsky urged everyone to stop focusing on Mike Johnson and instead pay attention to Greene. He said, “The issue is not with Johnson. Speaker Johnson is not the one who is running Congress. Marjorie Taylor Greene is running Congress! It’s all about those to whom she is willing to give the money. Everyone is afraid of her! She is everywhere, on every Committee, involved in all impeachments… This is a curious phenomenon in the camp of our real enemy. These are the kinds of people they have working in their Congress.”

Florida Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz offered his own amendment that would appoint Greene “as Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy to the United States Congress.” The Russians seem to agree.

😆

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) April 19, 2024

That woman just ain’t right!

Donetsk:

In the Donetsk region, I held a meeting on the regional security situation and the protection of people.

General Sodol, the head of the regional military administration Filashkin, and the heads of the SSU and National Police departments provided me with detailed briefings.

I… pic.twitter.com/YxYuCVx1R5

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 19, 2024

In the Donetsk region, I held a meeting on the regional security situation and the protection of people.

General Sodol, the head of the regional military administration Filashkin, and the heads of the SSU and National Police departments provided me with detailed briefings.

I also went to see the construction of fortifications. Every effort must be made in this regard.

I am grateful to everyone who defends our country and people. I thank everyone who works for Ukraine on a daily basis.

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Russian occupied Donestk:

They've been searching for him for days, many milbloggers were asking for any information on him. This is a serious reputational hit for Russians. https://t.co/7HGv6Rakzf

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 19, 2024

Russell Bentley, aka Texas, came to Donetsk in 2014 to join Russian proxies, married a local woman and was a favorite American of the Russian propaganda networks. He disappeared last week in Donetsk, kidnapped by soldiers of Russia’s 5th Tank Brigade according to his wife, and is now reported dead. https://t.me/readovkanews/78525

Because it was the Russian military that kidnapped and beheaded him. I know compared to other things they’ve been doing in Ukraine it’s nothing but it’s a lot for their own image.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 19, 2024

Chasiv Yar:

It’s remarkable that Russian Su-25 jets can operate so frequently and seemingly uncontested over western Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Khromove and the open fields between those and Chasiv Yar, especially when Chasiv Yar’s elevation is higher and these jets would be in clear sight of… https://t.co/blnnYgFG6m pic.twitter.com/QSa1m95Rd4

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 19, 2024

It’s remarkable that Russian Su-25 jets can operate so frequently and seemingly uncontested over western Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Khromove and the open fields between those and Chasiv Yar, especially when Chasiv Yar’s elevation is higher and these jets would be in clear sight of Ukrainian air defenses — if they had any stingers etc there to use. They are flying within 1.5-2 miles of Chasiv Yar’s eastern district. The camera in the video posted by @RALee85 below is filming from about the 📍 spot and the ⭕️ is the area where the jets are flying. The other videos in the thread are roughly the same area.

Videos posted over the past ten days by a Russian Telegram channel associated with the VDV’s 106th Airborne Division of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating in the Bakhmut – Chasiv Yar area. 2/https://t.co/a2vwVGXPhvhttps://t.co/0B3mcFYkf0https://t.co/IYwc4QDZS1… pic.twitter.com/qmtIHAeive

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 18, 2024

Video of UMPK strikes on Chasiv Yar. 4/https://t.co/yx3CxI1pFP pic.twitter.com/MfUCf3vnxX

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 19, 2024

Novomykhailivka:

The Russian losses in Novomykhailivka are just insanity. pic.twitter.com/3BhMkKfGBR

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) April 19, 2024

Serebryanksky Forest, Kreminna:

Serebryansky Forest, Kreminna area, completely evaporated due to constant combats on this part of the front. Video by DeepState.https://t.co/TnCl0zCF5K pic.twitter.com/eKKRd31zMF

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 19, 2024

Stavropol, Russia:

Have a "great" last flight.

📹: @United24media https://t.co/JLtHtTdkQy pic.twitter.com/eOUvXawEvK

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 19, 2024

300 km from Ukrainian border. Leaving this infographic here because it's just too good not to share. pic.twitter.com/KLTDjhCToD

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 19, 2024

Big news: Ukraine took down Tu-22M3 bomber, the one Russia uses to attack Ukrainian cities with Kh-22 missiles.

And get this: Ukraine shot down two of those missiles today!

Just think about it: if Ukraine had all those air defenses right now, how many more lives could’ve been saved.

Russian strategic bomber Tupolev Tu-22M3 goes down near Stavropol.
Ukraine’s Air Force now says it was downed. Russians, claim this was a technical failure, the crew survived.
Concerning…. pic.twitter.com/5qtFkZLJ4h

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 19, 2024

Bryansk, Russia:

Unidentified drones attacked Russian Bryansk, debris hit the energy infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/4yxX7Yxpq8

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 19, 2024

Mordovia, Russia:

Several days ago it was reported that Ukrainian drones attacked Russian “Container” over the horizon radar station. Which is located in Mordovia Republic of Russia, 600km from the frontline. Now Sentinel satellite imagery shows signs that the site was indeed under attack. But… pic.twitter.com/hheZ9gilBH

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 19, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Another fluffy wants to join the ranks of #UAarmy.

📷: @MVS_UA pic.twitter.com/nZh3RExwTT

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 19, 2024

Open thread!

Our Domestic Defense Production Yielded Important Results – Address by the President

18 April 2024 – 20:29

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today’s key takeaways.

First, a conference call with key reports. The Commander-in-Chief reported on the frontline, our operations and results. The Minister of Defense reported on the supply of weapons, equipment and communication with partners. There were important results of our domestic defense production: in particular, we managed to increase the number of Bohdana howitzers we produce monthly to 10. This is a good result. In general, there are positive aspects in arms production. We especially appreciate everything related to the production of drones and shells. I am always grateful to every company and every manufacturer that provides our Defense and Security Forces with everything they need. There were also reports on the regions – on the elimination of the consequences of Russian strikes, and the overall security situation. We discussed the situation in the border communities, including the information field, the access of people to the Ukrainian television signal and the blocking of Russian propaganda. Our own, Ukrainian, technical developments should also help with this. It is worth remembering that Russian propaganda is invariably followed by, at the very least, destabilization and, at worst, an attempted occupation. At all levels, we and our partners must work together to counteract it. And I thank everyone in the world – all leaders, all public figures, all politicians – who take seriously the need to protect people from disinformation and all other Russian destabilizing influences.

Today I had the opportunity to thank Germany: Robert Habeck, Vice Chancellor of the German government, is currently on a visit to Ukraine. We particularly appreciate Germany’s leadership, which helps not only us in Ukraine to protect lives, but also the whole of Europe to preserve the kind of Europe that is capable of being peaceful, capable of being lawful, capable of caring for people. Germany is now among the world leaders in helping our defense. We discussed what exactly is needed to adequately respond to all the security challenges of this year, to what Russian terrorists are preparing for. We discussed with Mr. Habeck the frontline, our needs for air defense, and the corresponding communication with partners – with third countries that can help and with whom our German friends will talk about this. Of course, we discussed cooperation at the level of European institutions and economic challenges. We also pay special attention to co-production projects, to our joint work so that our defense industries can contribute to the strength of our countries and the common security of the entire Europe. We are preparing the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Germany, our special bilateral work, and we agreed to make this format focused, in particular, on the defense industry – on production, on energy – on recovery, on air defense. As is always the case with Germany, there will be a result!

And one more aspect of both our internal and external work. Today I met with representatives of Ukrainian Jewish organizations and the Ukrainian Jewish community before Passover. It is very symbolic that our meeting took place in a Kyiv school: a Ukrainian school where children study Hebrew and Jewish culture, among other things. This is one of the many reflections of how rich Ukraine is in its diversity, in all our communities in our society. I thanked the rabbis who attended the meeting, those who are in Ukraine, those who are with Ukraine, with the people here, those who are helping us. This is extremely important. Of course, we talked about the possibilities of international communication – about ways to tell the world more about Russian aggression and our needs, in particular for air defense. For obvious security reasons, we held today’s meeting in the shelter of this school in Kyiv. And it is important that everyone who really has influence helps us, helps us to protect the sky, our cities, and all the children of Ukraine. I am grateful to everyone who invests their own time, strength, and energy in Ukraine.

Glory to everyone who defends our country, our people, and Ukrainian life! Glory to everyone who achieves results for Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

"The $60bn US package has been stalled for months by what, for Americans, is domestic politics; for us Ukrainians, it is a matter of life and death."

Read Nobel Peace Prize laureate @avalaina on the importance of American military assistance for Ukraine: https://t.co/t3KoB9lQgz

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 18, 2024

From The Financial Times:

My friend, a writer, texted last night from his trench to say a gentle goodbye. His unit is expecting an attack any time, but they do not have the heavy artillery they need to repel the assault.

I am thousands of miles away from Ukraine, on a six-city lecture tour across the US, addressing public meetings and briefing members of Congress. But the war stays with us Ukrainians wherever we may travel. Rest is impossible when, back home, the delay in delivering crucial arms is costing the lives of our friends, our relatives, our countrymen.

The $60bn US package has been stalled for months by what, for Americans, is domestic politics; for us Ukrainians, it is a matter of life and death. In my meetings here, I am frequently asked: since Ukraine cannot expect to defeat Russia on the battlefield, shouldn’t it accept a land deal? Won’t more arms just mean more death?

Indeed, Ukraine has seen far too much death — I know, because my colleagues and I see it daily. For the past decade, my organisation has documented war crimes by Russian forces occupying my country. Since the full invasion in February 2022, the scale of crimes has escalated exponentially. With a network of Ukrainian groups, we have documented killings, rape and torture — beatings, peeling off fingernails, genital electric shock. One woman I interviewed had her eye extracted by a spoon. To date, we have documented 68,000 crimes.

Yet this is only the tip of the iceberg, because such crimes are central to both the method and the purpose of the invasion. The Russian position, as the president has made repeatedly clear, is that Ukrainian language and culture, that Ukraine and Ukrainians, do not exist.

A premature deal would be wrong — not least because we tried it already, and it failed. In 2014, Russia seized Crimea and part of the Donbas. Ukraine was not able to respond effectively, and the international response was muted. A ceasefire was then agreed. All Russia did was use the next eight years to prepare forward bases for the next attack. Moscow will only do the same again.

An early deal would also be immoral. You do not make peace by disarming the invaded country. This would be occupation and we know what that would mean.

Russia is now increasing its assaults on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and we expect a major attack this summer. Our capital city, my home, could again be under direct threat.

In the meantime, destabilisation activities are under way against Moldova and other neighbouring countries. Moscow is the centre but Russia’s imperial vision has no defined borders. This nightmare — this endless cataloguing of human pain — will only continue.

The solution is to defeat Russia and this authoritarian ideology. A stand must be made, and Ukrainians are bravely making it. War is horrible. But Ukrainians know what Russia brings, and the clear majority of the population — more than 70 per cent — support continuing the fight “as long as it takes”.

We respect American politics. We know every country has its own priorities and financial issues. We are grateful for the generous support we have received so far from the US, Europe and other countries around the world, both from governments and ordinary citizens. But now we need more help, and we need it soon. Ukraine wants peace more than anyone. But we cannot fight evil with empty hands. Strengthen Ukraine, let us pursue the war as far as we can — our vision is to the internationally recognised 1991 borders — and then we can discuss peace. Our friends in Russian human rights groups tell us the same: the best way to help Russian democracy is to defeat Russian militarism in Ukraine.

This is not a war for land. It is a war for survival. Not just of the Ukrainian people but of the basic values of human rights, of democracy, of liberty. The majority of American people know this and support more aid for Ukraine. The majority of members of Congress agree. Meanwhile, I continue to get text messages from the front every night. Will the US send fresh arms before it is too late?

More at the link.

The US:

⚡️ US House Democrats back Johnson's foreign aid bills.https://t.co/S5dSXXWqRM

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 18, 2024

"We're going to do what's necessary to make sure the national security bill gets over the finish line," House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said.

"It's not Johnson's foreign aid package. It's America's foreign aid package in terms of meeting our national security needs."

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 18, 2024

CIA Director Burns sounds a more dire warning about Ukraine if they don't get more aid: “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms.." https://t.co/UrOUuCUKtp

— Alex Marquardt (@MarquardtA) April 18, 2024

CNN has the details:

CIA Director Bill Burns on Thursday warned that unless US sends more military support, Ukraine could “lose” the war against Russia by the end of the year.

His comments mark one of the starkest warnings to date from the Biden administration on the stakes in Ukraine as Congress debates whether to approve a long-delayed aid package to Kyiv.

Just a month ago, Burns had warned in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee that if Congress did not move to authorize additional support — long hampered by conservative opposition in the House of Representatives — “Ukraine is likely to lose ground and probably significant ground in 2024.”

But on Thursday during an appearance at the George W. Bush Center, he warned that Ukraine could be forced to capitulate entirely.

“With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, I think the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024,” Burns said.

“Without supplemental assistance, the picture is a lot more dire,” he continued. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could dictate the terms of a political settlement.”

The warning comes as the Biden administration is trying to seize an unexpected political opportunity on Capitol Hill to push the House to pass the long-stalled aid package. The legislation also includes aid for Israel, and as a result, House Speaker Mike Johnson has been under pressure to move the package after the Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend. In an effort to satisfy divided factions of the GOP, some of whom support and some of whom oppose aid for Ukraine, he has split the legislation into separate bills and the Ukraine aid portion is expected to come up for a vote on Saturday night.

Burns on Thursday did not detail further how he defined “lose,” and one source familiar with Western intelligence noted to CNN that if the package doesn’t pass, officials still believe Russia is unlikely to overrun Ukraine from coast to coast.

But Russia could retake significant additional territory then effectively freeze the battlelines in place in a de facto ceasefire, similar to what happened after Moscow annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014. That would still be deemed “a loss.”

Burns detailed the dire need for basic ammunition that Ukraine faces on the battlefield. He recounted two battalions — 2,000-plus man units — that had “15 artillery rounds per day” and “a grand total of 42 mortar rounds,” respectively.

“They were overwhelmed, and it wasn’t for lack of bravery or determination on their part, and my worry is that we’re going to see more Avdiivkas in the future without supplemental assistance,” Burns said, referring to a Ukrainian city recently lost to Russian advances.

Ukraine’s shortage of ammunition and military equipment resulting from the US and its allies’ struggle to resupply the country’s military has had an increasingly dire effect on the battlefield, CNN has previously reported.

Congresswoman Taylor Green has more thoughts.

I regret to inform you that this is real:https://t.co/eSx7wiUzDX

— Kareem Rifai 🌐 (@KareemRifai) April 18, 2024

What the fuck did I just wake up to right now this morning? https://t.co/LG1C05uUoc

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 18, 2024

Just to be clear, Israel is developing a ground based air defense laser system called the Iron Beam. My guess is Greene got briefed on it, didn’t understand it, and that’s the basis for her Israel aid and space laser mashup. Especially as we already know she’s got Jewish space lasers on the brain.

But wait, there’s more!

This just cannot be true.

I plainly refuse to accept this as something happening on planet Earth. https://t.co/p0DBl5BE6E

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 18, 2024

That woman just ain’t right!

Poland:

The protesters are expected to block trucks heading to Ukraine via Korczowa-Krakovets until the morning of April 20 and cargo vehicles going through Medyka-Shehyni in both directions until early April 19.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 18, 2024

On his own initiative, the suspect meant to spy on the security of the Rzeszow airport in Poland, with the intention of helping Russian intelligence services plan a potential assassination of Zelensky during the latter's visit to Poland, the SBU said.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 18, 2024

⚡️ Polish, Ukrainian authorities expose Pole who allegedly offered to assassinate Zelensky for Russia.

A joint operation by Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement agencies led to the detention of a Polish citizen who allegedly offered to Russia to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on April 18.

Read more: https://kyivindependent.com/polish-ukrainian-authorities-detain-pole-who-allegedly-offered-to-assassinate-zelensky-for-russia/

📷 Ukraine’s Presidential Office

From The Kyiv Independent:

A joint operation by Ukrainian and Polish law enforcement agencies led to the detention of a Polish citizen who allegedly offered to Russia to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on April 18.

On his own initiative, the suspect meant to spy on the security of the Rzeszow airport in Poland, with the intention of helping Russian intelligence services plan a potential assassination of Zelensky during the latter’s visit to Poland, the SBU said.

The officials did not specify whether Moscow had actually received the suspect’s offer or what the response was.

Before the detention, the SBU and Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office notified Warsaw about a possible assassination attempt and provided their Polish counterparts with key evidence.

The Polish authorities have detained the suspect and charged him with working for foreign intelligence services. The investigation is ongoing.

“This case is yet another proof that Russia is a threat not only to Ukraine and Ukrainians but also to the entire free world,” Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin said.

“The Kremlin’s criminal regime is constantly trying to undermine European and global security.”

Slovakia:

Slovak citizens have raised over $1.6 million in three days for the Czech ammunition initiative after Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico refused to contribute to the campaign to aid Ukraine.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 18, 2024

The Czech Republic:

“If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, then the whole transatlantic community will not be trusted anymore,” warns Czech President Petr Pavel @prezidentpavel. “We are talking about protecting our values – but we are not doing enough to protect them in practice.” pic.twitter.com/20EymgocLd

— Christiane Amanpour (@amanpour) April 18, 2024

Germany:

Russian Embassy in Berlin says arrest of 2 GRU spies will fuel anti-#Russia sentiment and worsen Russia-#Germany relations.

Spies planning to "bomb industrial and military sites" tend to do that. https://t.co/34Tg2jRzwa

— Steven Pifer (@steven_pifer) April 18, 2024

Speaking of threats, the information warfare built into Russian military doctrine continues to give Putin a veto in the US’s and NATO’s deliberations.

A good overview of how Putin's threats of "red lines" undermine support for Ukraine and play right into Putin's hands in the @AtlanticCouncil

"The West’s emphasis on escalation management has prolonged the war in Ukraine, allowing Russia to overcome initial setbacks and regain… pic.twitter.com/IVnYUErdPq

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 18, 2024

A good overview of how Putin’s threats of “red lines” undermine support for Ukraine and play right into Putin’s hands in the @AtlanticCouncil

“The West’s emphasis on escalation management has prolonged the war in Ukraine, allowing Russia to overcome initial setbacks and regain the initiative. It has prevented the Ukrainian military from building on the momentum of late 2022, and has turned a dynamic war of movement into an attritional fight that heavily favors Russia. By allowing themselves to be intimidated by the threat of Russian escalation, Western leaders have granted Putin an effective veto over various categories of military aid for Ukraine. This lack of Western resolve has inevitably emboldened the Russian dictator.

Policymakers in Europe and the US must now decide whether they wish to continue with this losing strategy or finally commit to a Ukrainian victory. It is still not too late to adopt a more sensible military strategy, but the clock is ticking. Unless Ukraine is given the tools to defeat Russia on the battlefield, Putin will secure an historic victory that will transform the international security climate. If that happens, today’s emphasis on avoiding escalation will come to be seen as the biggest geopolitical blunder since the appeasement policies of the 1930s.”

Link to full article: https://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/western-fear-of-escalation-will-hand-putin-an-historic-victory-in-ukraine/

From The Atlantic Council:

Millions of Ukrainians watched with mixed emotions over the weekend as a coalition of countries came together to protect Israeli airspace from Iranian bombardment. Ukraine’s reaction was hardly surprising. After all, this impressive display of international air defense efficiency was exactly what the Ukrainians themselves have been pleading for ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of their country began in February 2022.

In the aftermath of the operation to defend Israel, Western officials moved quickly to reject any direct comparisons with Ukraine. “Different conflicts, different airspace, different threat picture,” commented US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron was even more explicit, stating that the use of British jets to shoot down Russian drones in Ukraine would lead to a “dangerous escalation” in the war.

For Ukrainian audiences, Cameron’s anti-escalation argument was all too familiar. For the past two years, Ukraine’s Western partners have sought to strike a delicate balance between aiding the country’s self-defense and avoiding anything that could lead to a wider European war. This overriding fear of escalation has shaped the Western response to Russia’s invasion, and has been masterfully exploited by Putin to restrict military support for Ukraine.

On the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion, fear of escalation was already deterring Western leaders from delivering weapons to Ukraine. Once the attack had begun, it took precious months for the Biden administration to send artillery and HIMARS missile systems. Almost an entire year had passed before Western partners finally agreed on plans to deliver a relatively small number of modern tanks.

This pattern of delays and half-measures shows no signs of changing. With the Russian invasion now well into its third year, Ukraine is still waiting to receive the first batch of F16 fighter jets. Meanwhile, officials in Kyiv are desperately calling on partners to provide them with long-range missiles and air defense systems.

The West’s preoccupation with avoiding escalation at all costs goes against basic military doctrine and has been instrumental in preventing greater Ukrainian battlefield success. When Putin’s invasion force was at its weakest in 2022, Ukraine was denied the support it needed to break through Russia’s vulnerable defensive lines in the south. By the time Kyiv’s partners had agreed to create the necessary offensive force, it was too late; Moscow had mobilized an additional 300,000 troops and fortified the front lines of the war.

Throughout the invasion, Russia has consistently fed Western fears of escalation through a mixture of bellicose statements, back channel signalling, and clever influence operations. The Kremlin’s most effective intimidation tactic has been nuclear blackmail. In late 2022, for example, US intercepts began picking up vague but alarming “chatter” about Russian preparations for the use of nuclear weapons.

Many believe this was a deliberate ploy to boost the credibility of Putin’s public nuclear saber-rattling. It appears to have worked. The intel led to heated debate in the White House and nuclear wargaming in the Pentagon, with Biden administration officials engaging in renewed diplomatic outreach to Moscow. Crucially, concerns over a possible Russian nuclear response dampened Western enthusiasm to press home Ukraine’s advantage at a time when Putin’s army was retreating in disarray.

In addition to blunting Ukraine’s offensive capabilities, the West’s desire to avoid escalation is undermining Kyiv’s ability to defend itself. For the past two years, Ukraine has been blocked from using Western weapons against targets inside Russia. In recent weeks, US officials have even objected to Ukraine using its own weapons to attack Russian refineries.

These artificial restrictions have created an unprecedented situation that aggravates the existing imbalance of forces between Russia and Ukraine. While Russia is able to bomb Ukrainian infrastructure at will, Ukrainian commanders are severely limited in their ability to target the air bases, production facilities, and logistical hubs inside Russia that are being used to attack Ukraine.

The West’s emphasis on escalation management has prolonged the war in Ukraine, allowing Russia to overcome initial setbacks and regain the initiative. It has prevented the Ukrainian military from building on the momentum of late 2022, and has turned a dynamic war of movement into an attritional fight that heavily favors Russia. By allowing themselves to be intimidated by the threat of Russian escalation, Western leaders have granted Putin an effective veto over various categories of military aid for Ukraine. This lack of Western resolve has inevitably emboldened the Russian dictator.

Policymakers in Europe and the US must now decide whether they wish to continue with this losing strategy or finally commit to a Ukrainian victory. It is still not too late to adopt a more sensible military strategy, but the clock is ticking. Unless Ukraine is given the tools to defeat Russia on the battlefield, Putin will secure an historic victory that will transform the international security climate. If that happens, today’s emphasis on avoiding escalation will come to be seen as the biggest geopolitical blunder since the appeasement policies of the 1930s.

Mykola Bielieskov is a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a senior analyst at Ukrainian NGO “Come Back Alive.” The views expressed in this article are the author’s personal position and do not reflect the opinions or views of NISS or Come Back Alive.

Illia Ponomarenko reads the Starlink Snowflake for the filth he is:

This is seriously a new level of being a douchebag.

– You directly undermine Ukraine's defense effort by turning Starlinks off for the Ukrainian military right in the middle of important operations and letting the Russian military use it despite U.S. sanctions
– You spread the… pic.twitter.com/6iUAl8FzaD

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 18, 2024

This is seriously a new level of being a douchebag.

– You directly undermine Ukraine’s defense effort by turning Starlinks off for the Ukrainian military right in the middle of important operations and letting the Russian military use it despite U.S. sanctions
– You spread the most idiotic “nuclear war” takes whispered to you in the ear by the Russian ambassador in the U.S. and even Putin himself
– You give voice and listen to the most insane conspiracy theorists talking about “proxy war”, “biolabs”, “deep state”, and “money laundering”, as well as blowhard demagogues and media con artists openly praising Putin and his regime
– You use your multimillion-stong global audience to directly propagate the Ukrainian surrender to Russia’s war of aggression and publicly ridicule Ukraine’s calls for international defense aid in its war against one of the world’s largest military powers
– You directly undermined U.S. aid to Ukraine and publicly called for “killing” a long-belated aid at the U.S. Congress despite Ukraine running critically low on air defense and munitions because you and your arrogant yes-men had decided that “Putin just can’t lose”

And when the situation deteriorates, particularly due to months-long delays in the most essential and urgent defense aid, this shameless douche says “I did predict it” (while again completely ignoring the fact that POLITICO makes it perfectly clear that Ukraine is ‘heading for defeat’ due to the West’s failure to send weapons to Kyiv).

No, Elmo, you did not ‘predict’ anything.

You precipitated this.

This war started with Ukrainians praising you as the free world’s techno hero and naming streets after you.

Now you have degraded yourself to being one of Russia’s key useful idiots amid the most terrible and the largest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler.

Keep listening to the likes of Ian Miles Cheong and David Sacks and dive deeper into your delusions and absolute moral bankruptcy.

We in Ukriane have seen our share of smartasses giving us between 48 and 72 hours two years ago.

In this war, we’ve been through so many impossible things that you can’t even imagine, let alone “predict”.

We will overcome this too — and will get the aid, will survive as an independent nation and a democracy, and will bring peace back to Europe by derailing Russian aggression.

Speaking of the Starlink Snowflake:

1/5 "Specially for Special Military Operation"@elonmusk
said that Starlink cannot be bought in russia.@molfar_agency
contacted sellers from 🇷🇺 stores to see if it's possible.

We found out russians obtain terminals through the UAE and Kazakhstan, as well as fake accounts. pic.twitter.com/rpqka5FFc2

— Molfar (@molfar_agency) April 16, 2024

3/5 Who uses Starlink?

– Volunteer military groups
The use of Starlink in regular military units of the 🇷🇺 army is prohibited, but volunteer units use it.

– Volunteers
They had Starlinks for the needs of the 🇷🇺 army long before info about their availability in 🇷🇺 appeared.

— Molfar (@molfar_agency) April 16, 2024

5/5 russians find ways import and use Elon Musk's terminals. So them can actively use Starlink on the front lines.

Therefore, we want to draw the international community's attention to this problem.https://t.co/TtNHpaBRBO pic.twitter.com/LtbTrQOh26

— Molfar (@molfar_agency) April 16, 2024

Kyiv:

“Budanov predicted that Russia will launch a big offensive starting in June to try to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk, the two provinces known as the Donbas region…The Russians will then focus on the November elections” https://t.co/WRe4uzEeHt

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) April 18, 2024

From The Washington Post:

KYIV — Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov’s glowering face is barely visible in the half-light of his office. He likes to work in the dark, as befits the chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, the GUR. Behind him in the gray gloom, you can see a painting of a giant owl, the symbol of his service, savagely devouring a bat that is the motif of its Russian counterpart.

Budanov is the dark prince of the Ukraine war. His drop-dead stare has become an icon for Ukrainians — a symbol of bravery and defiance in this third year of conflict with Russia. Ukraine’s NV news outlet calls him the man “without a smile.” A meme that circulates on the internet shows nine identical pictures of his scowling face, labeled “happy,” “angry,” “troubled,” “excited” and so on.

Budanov spoke with me for 90 minutes last month in his forbidding office on what Ukrainians call “the Island,” a derelict string of buildings on a peninsula on the Dnieper River. He was, as always, the voice of resistance — promising to take the fight into Russia with drones and special operations, confirming reports that he’s battling with Wagner mercenaries in Africa and scoffing at a Korea-style negotiated settlement.

With the House of Representatives nearing a final vote on additional military aid to Ukraine, Budanov delivered a clear, emphatic message to the United States: “You should keep helping us, and you should, at last, deliver the assistance we need. We will have a common victory together.”

War always has an element of theater, and Budanov might be this conflict’s most colorful character. He’s just 38, and he’s famously courageous in battle. He fought behind Russian lines between 2014 and 2016 in Donbas and was injured three times, including taking shrapnel in his heart, neck and back. In 2016, he led a raid that killed a lieutenant general from Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB.

There’s a pile of armor and a .50-caliber machine gun heaped next to his desk, and they’re not for show. Budanov travels regularly to the front lines in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, “everywhere,” he said. “Sometimes it’s necessary for me to be with my people to motivate them. I’m not taking excuses for why someone can’t do something. That’s why the task will always be accomplished.”

Budanov predicted that Russia will launch a big offensive starting in June to try to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk, the two provinces known as the Donbas region, which Russia has claimed but doesn’t control. The Russians will then focus on the November elections in the United States and the aftermath. “Until the inauguration of your president, they will try to get as much as possible of the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk,” perhaps hoping that a reelected President Donald Trump can ratify their gains.

To counter the Russians, Budanov plans more cross-border attacks by the “Russian volunteers” who operate inside Russia with support from his service, along with more drone attacks. He explained: “We’ve offered a plan aimed at reduction of Russian potential. It encompasses a lot of aspects, like the military industry … critical military targets, their airfields, their command-and-control posts.”

The goal is to show that President Vladimir Putin cannot “protect the population from the war getting into Russia,” he explained. “When you’re sitting, say, in St. Petersburg, and you’re seeing the war only on TV, you will always be supportive. … But people start to get nervous when some facility [is attacked] near their house.”

Budanov scrolled his phone for images from a Telegram channel that show Russian civilians in the town of Belgorod surveying damage to local buildings. The bombs that had caused most of the destruction were Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles shot at Ukrainian drones, he said, rather than the drones themselves, but the traumatizing effect on the population was the same.

“In reality, the damage done by those [antiaircraft] missiles is a lot higher than the damage that would potentially be done by a drone,” he said.

When I asked if Ukrainian attacks inside Russia would continue, Budanov offered a rare trace of a smile. “I hope so,” he said. A cartoon circulating on the internet shows Putin meeting Budanov in a park and asking if his dog bites. Budanov answers no, and Putin pets the animal. The dog takes a gun and shoots Putin dead.

Budanov’s celebrity in Ukraine stems partly from the fact that he was the only senior leader to warn unequivocally that the Russians were coming before they invaded on Feb. 24, 2022. He led his special forces at Hostomel airport in the early days of the war to help repel a Russian landing there that nearly led to the capture of Kyiv.

The Russians have tried to assassinate Budanov at least 10 times, according to Ukraine’s count, including at least two missile strikes on his headquarters at the Island. A Moscow court issued a warrant for his arrest last year for allegedly plotting to destroy the Kerch Strait bridge. His wife, Marianna, was poisoned by heavy metals, according to Ukrainian reports last year.

Budanov doesn’t appear fazed. If anything, he seems to relish the danger. Some friends worry that he can be reckless. “Kyrylo has succeeded in so many risks, he doesn’t have good risk assessment,” one told me.

As special forces chief, Budanov is always looking for new ways to cause trouble for Putin and his forces. I asked him about rumors that some of his GUR operatives are fighting in Africa against mercenaries of the Wagner militia. “We conduct such operations aimed at reducing Russian military potential, anywhere where it’s possible,” he said. “Why should Africa be an exception?”

For all his panache, Budanov has a clear-eyed assessment of Putin and Russia. “He became a victim of his own propaganda,” Budanov said. “They overheated their society … saying that they’re the most mighty and all-powerful in the world, and he started believing that himself. But it turned out their military is not as powerful as they thought.”

Putin made a “strategic mistake” in launching the war, he said. “But Russians recover fast, and that’s a fact that you should keep in mind. They have proved that dozens of times. We should not underestimate this characteristic.” Putin’s war was supported by over 70 percent of Russians, he said.

How will this war end? Budanov was wary about making predictions. He said he “wouldn’t mind” an eventual breakup of Russia into small pieces. But he cautioned: “In Russian dreams, they have occupied all of Ukraine, and in our dreams, we have a victory parade … into Moscow.” In other words, neither outcome is likely.

“This war will be ongoing while this regime remains in place in Russia,” he said. “Under the next regime, it might change or not, but there will be a window of opportunity.” When I asked about a “Korea solution” through negotiations, he bristled and asked if I wanted Ukraine to become North Korea.

Near the end of our conversation, I asked Budanov if he was worried that if Trump were elected, he might try to impose a settlement. His answer surprised me, but perhaps it underlined what a canny intelligence operator he is. He’s already recruiting a potential asset.

“I have a huge respect for the personality of Trump,” Budanov said. He noted that the former president had attended a military academy, and he lauded his tenacity. “There have been nine instances in his life when he went to the top, fell to the very bottom of life, and went back again.” But as for any Trump peace plan, he said: “Even a person like him won’t be able to resolve this issue in one day.”

Dzhankoi, Russian occupied Crimea:

🇺🇦 @GeneralStaffUA released a video of the attack on the military airfield in Dzhankoi. https://t.co/SL8O7v0Huh pic.twitter.com/HXLxo83V8y

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 18, 2024

On April 17, 2024, as a result of a successful operation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the military airfield in Dzhankoi in Crimea, the following russian targets were destroyed or critically damaged:
● 4x S-400 air defense missile launchers
● 3x radar detection systems
● Air defense command-and-control center
● “Fundament-M” airspace surveillance equipment

Great work done!
Glory to Ukraine!

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

⚡️A Russian attack on April 18 in the Dnipro district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast injured two men, aged 30 and 35, said Governor Serhii Lysak.https://t.co/t6XnHB1Iuw

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 18, 2024

Odesa Oblast:

These mobile fire groups are defending our skies from russian Shaheds in the Odesa region. 

📹: 126th TDF Brigade pic.twitter.com/qfEKs3W9Np

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 18, 2024

Kharkiv:

Russia ramps up disinformation, falsely claiming Kharkiv faces Russian encirclement, urging residents to flee. Not the first attempt, but one of the most intense and coordinated yet. Maps circulating on social media depict escape routes, meant to fuel fear of imminent danger. pic.twitter.com/1f9Ek0abEy

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 18, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here’s some adjacent material:

Vegas ) pic.twitter.com/Gz8yJLzZSD

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 17, 2024

Open thread!

The Occupier Must Lose, and Each of their Losses is Ukraine’s Strength – Address of the President of Ukraine

17 April 2024 – 22:22

Dear Ukrainians!

The summary of this day.

I have just taken part in the work of the European Council. All the leaders of our Europe were here. I am grateful to Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, to Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, and to all the leaders of European states and governments for their consistent attention to Ukraine.

Today I emphasized everything that we need for our further actions, for our defense.

Of course, anti-aircraft warfare and the frontline are top priorities. Now is the time that everyone in Europe, in the free world, should use to strengthen — to increase the production and supply of weapons, and in general to strengthen the determination. The normal life of the world depends on determination, and Europe cannot afford to waste this time for the sake of our common security.

Before the European Council meeting, I addressed the participants of the discussion at the World Bank, attended by major global financiers — the Ministers of Finance of our partner countries and the heads of the leading financial institutions. We are working to ensure the adequate financial foundation for Ukraine which is essential for its defense against Russian aggression. Defense and reconstruction, social stability — all of this requires funding and long-term support programs. And finally, we need decisive actions to make the frozen Russian assets work for our defense against Russian terror.

Today I also talked to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. We are preparing for a meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council on Friday. The agenda is focused on our partnership, on the power of joint action, on how we can work together, really work together, to provide more protection for life — for all our cities, towns, and communities.

The allies have shown now in the Middle East what they can really do. They can when there is enough determination.

Today, throughout the day, I received reports on the tragedy in Chernihiv following a Russian strike on the city, on its residential quarters. Some houses were damaged, a hospital, and a hotel were destroyed. There were people under the rubble. A lot of wounded people. As of now, 17 people have been confirmed killed. My condolences to all those who lost their loved ones. The rescue operation on site has continued throughout the day and will continue until we know the fate of everyone who may be under the rubble. I thank every rescuer on the scene, all the medical personnel, all the police officers who are helping, the municipal services that are involved — everyone who is saving lives.

And I would also like to thank everyone in our Armed Forces of Ukraine who prepares special operations — especially important operations, crucial operations that destroy the equipment of the Russian army and their combat infrastructure. Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have carried out a correct strike against the occupier in Dzhankoi, targeting the airfield. Thank you, warriors! Thank you for your precision. Thank you, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi for organizing this operation. The occupier must lose, and each of their losses is Ukraine’s strength.

Thank you, everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! Thank you, everyone who supports us!

Glory to Ukraine!

Thank you to @TIME.

But I am convinced that Time's list should include people like Dmytro Kotsyubailo, Pavlo Petrychenko, Oleksiy Chubashev, Andriy Pilshchykov "Juice", Vladyslava Chernykh "Aida" and many other of our heroes.

Everyone who died for Ukraine and freedom.

— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) April 17, 2024

That is why the defense forces and the people of Ukraine should be in Time.

I can only be proud to be a part of this nation.

I believe that Time's award is an assessment of the work of the entire
President @ZelenskyyUa's team, which is a great honor for me to work for.

— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) April 17, 2024

Denmark:

Denmark announced the 17th military aid package for Ukraine, valued at approximately DKK 2.2 billion. kroner ($313 million).

The new military aid package focuses on increased defense industry cooperation between Ukraine and Denmark. Denmark allocates 200 million DKK for… pic.twitter.com/JPKVXFuOV7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 17, 2024

Denmark announced the 17th military aid package for Ukraine, valued at approximately DKK 2.2 billion. kroner ($313 million).

The new military aid package focuses on increased defense industry cooperation between Ukraine and Denmark. Denmark allocates 200 million DKK for investments in the Ukrainian defense industry. In addition, funds have been set aside for maritime capabilities, drones, and the production of missile components.

We highly appreciate Denmark’s unwavering support for Ukraine. Together, we fight for freedom.

NATO:

Spoke with President @ZelenskyyUa on #Ukraine's urgent needs & #NATO support. Delays in aid have consequences on the ground every day. So my message to Allies is clear: Send more to Ukraine. We also agreed to convene the NATO-Ukraine Council this Friday.

— Jens Stoltenberg (@jensstoltenberg) April 17, 2024

Germany:

Germany urges dozen of allies to send air defence systems to Ukraine https://t.co/YbK8Ej9JpG

— Financial Times (@FT) April 17, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Germany has written to dozens of countries including Gulf Arab states to plead for more air defence systems for Ukraine, saying Kyiv needed urgent help to protect its cities, troops and critical infrastructure from the “murderous onslaught” of Russian missiles.

In a letter to other Nato members, a copy of which was obtained by the Financial Times and confirmed by Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock and defence minister Boris Pistorius said they were launching a global initiative aimed at plugging the gaps in Ukraine’s air defences.

A “wide range of non-Nato partners” had also been approached, they added. Officials declined to identify those countries.

Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister who is the frontrunner to become Nato’s next secretary-general, said he believed European members of the alliance were prepared to provide funds to acquire air defence systems for Kyiv.

“We know the amount they need and we know that we should be able to get that done,” Rutte said on Wednesday at a summit of EU leaders in Brussels. “We know that many countries have Patriot [anti-missile] systems but maybe do not want to deliver directly. We can buy from them and we can deliver to Ukraine. We have the money available. It’s crucial.”

Ukraine has warned it is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive. In their letter, the German ministers said Russia was trying to destroy Odesa — the Black Sea port city, which they described as Ukraine’s “economic lifeline” — and the north-eastern industrial centre of Kharkiv, while a wave of attacks on energy infrastructure had caused even more damage than during the winter of 2022-23.

“It is up to us to help Ukraine defend itself against this murderous onslaught,” they said, calling on Germany’s partners to join the initiative, known as Immediate Action on Air Defence.

“We appeal to you to take stock of all [the] air defence systems in your arsenals and consider what could be transferred to Ukraine, whole systems or parts of them either permanently or for a limited period,” they said.

In a statement to the FT, Kuleba said Kyiv was “very grateful to Germany for its leadership on the issue of air defence for Ukraine”.

“Not only has it provided its own Patriot system and missiles, but our German friends are actively looking for ways to engage other countries that may help,” he said. “We urge all of them to reciprocate the German call.”

Officials in Kyiv said Kuleba held discussions on scouring the world for available systems with Baerbock at Nato headquarters in Brussels earlier this month. Germany co-leads a “Capability Coalition Integrated Air and Missile Defense” for Ukraine with France and the US.

“We know we need to do more than we are currently doing to support Ukraine. That is especially true for all capabilities required for air defence,” Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, said at the Brussels summit.

Scholz noted that Germany had decided to send Ukraine a third Patriot system from its arsenal.

“We want to also encourage others to do the same and look what possibilities exist in their own stocks to improve Ukraine’s possibilities for defence,” Scholz added. “It’s about doing this quickly now.”

Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, warned on Saturday that the situation on the eastern front had “significantly worsened in recent days.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made repeated calls for Ukraine’s western partners to provide more air defence systems. After a Russian missile attack destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv last week, he pleaded for the US Congress to approve a much-needed $60bn military assistance package.

More at the link.

Washington, DC:

As they await US aid, Ukrainians losing ground, SecDef Austin tells House:

“We’re already seeing things on the battlefield begin to shift a bit in in terms of in Russia's favor,” Austin told the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee. “We are seeing them make incremental…

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) April 17, 2024

As they await US aid, Ukrainians losing ground, SecDef Austin tells House:

“We’re already seeing things on the battlefield begin to shift a bit in in terms of in Russia’s favor,” Austin told the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee. “We are seeing them make incremental gains, we’re seeing the Ukrainians be challenged in terms of holding the line — they’re doing a very good job, a credible job — but in order to continue to do that, they’re going to need you know, the right materials, the right munitions, the weapons to be able to do that.”

 

BREAKING — House Republicans are posting the aid bill imminently.

I’m told there are no changes from what @SpeakerJohnson laid out Monday.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) April 17, 2024

Ukraine aid :https://t.co/3dPoHFik6j https://t.co/6f2aRaOiIg

— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) April 17, 2024

In a statement, President Joe Biden says he "strongly support[s]" the House's National Security Supplemental aid package, pledging, "I will sign this into law immediately to send a message to the world: We stand with our friends, and we won't let Iran or Russia succeed." pic.twitter.com/SRb4L4VbQA

— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) April 17, 2024

Reagan turning over in his grave.

— Barbara Slavin (@barbaraslavin1) April 18, 2024

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene had some thoughts, which she expressed as amendments:

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced an amendment requiring members to “conscript in the Ukrainian military” if they vote for the Ukraine supplemental bill. pic.twitter.com/n0SykKpA3I

— Juliegrace Brufke (@juliegraceb) April 17, 2024

Marjorie Taylor Greene offers an amendment to make funds from the Israel funding bill available “for the development of space laser technology on the southwest border.”

This is real, not made up— it’s amendment 11 herehttps://t.co/4IYE7Z8359
H/T @juliegraceb pic.twitter.com/Aq01a7zDRM

— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) April 18, 2024

I didn’t say they were good thoughts.

Who could’ve possibly known?

“The document for the first time provides official confirmation and codification of what many in the Moscow elite say has become a hybrid war against the West. Russia is seeking to subvert Western support for Ukraine and disrupt the domestic politics of the United States and…

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 17, 2024

“The document for the first time provides official confirmation and codification of what many in the Moscow elite say has become a hybrid war against the West. Russia is seeking to subvert Western support for Ukraine and disrupt the domestic politics of the United States and European countries, through propaganda campaigns supporting isolationist and extremist policies, according to Kremlin documents previously reported on by The Post. It is also seeking to refashion geopolitics, drawing closer to China, Iran and North Korea in an attempt to shift the current balance of power.”
gift link https://wapo.st/3vMlQ39

The Washington Post has the details. (emphasis mine)

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has been drawing up plans to try to weaken its Western adversaries, including the United States, and leverage the Ukraine war to forge a global order free from what it sees as American dominance, according to a secret Foreign Ministry document.

In a classified addendum to Russia’s official — and public — “Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation,” the ministry calls for an “offensive information campaign” and other measures spanning “the military-political, economic and trade and informational psychological spheres” against a “coalition of unfriendly countries” led by the United States.

“We need to continue adjusting our approach to relations with unfriendly states,” states the 2023 document, which was provided to The Washington Post by a European intelligence service. “It’s important to create a mechanism for finding the vulnerable points of their external and internal policies with the aim of developing practical steps to weaken Russia’s opponents.”

The document for the first time provides official confirmation and codification of what many in the Moscow elite say has become a hybrid war against the West. Russia is seeking to subvert Western support for Ukraine and disrupt the domestic politics of the United States and European countries, through propaganda campaigns supporting isolationist and extremist policies, according to Kremlin documents previously reported on by The Post. It is also seeking to refashion geopolitics, drawing closer to China, Iran and North Korea in an attempt to shift the current balance of power.

Using much tougher and blunter language than the public foreign policy document, the secret addendum, dated April 11, 2023, claims that the United States is leading a coalition of “unfriendly countries” aimed at weakening Russia because Moscow is “a threat to Western global hegemony.” The document says the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine will “to a great degree determine the outlines of the future world order,” a clear indication that Moscow sees the result of its invasion as inextricably bound with its ability — and that of other authoritarian nations — to impose its will globally.

The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, which was published March 31, 2023, and approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin, deploys bland diplomatic language to call for “the democratization of international relations,” “sovereign equality” and the strengthening of Russia’s position on the global stage. Though the Foreign Policy Concept also charges that the United States and “its satellites” have used the Ukraine conflict to escalate “a many-years-long anti-Russia policy,” it also states that “Russia does not consider itself an enemy of the West … and has no ill intentions toward it.”

Russia hopes the West will “realize the lack of any future in its confrontational policy and hegemonistic ambitions, and will accept the complicated realities of the multipolar world,” the public document states.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it did not comment “on the existence or nonexistence of internal ministry documents” and on the progress of work on them. “As we have stated several times on different levels, we can confirm the mood is to decisively combat the aggressive steps taken by the collective West as part of the hybrid war launched against Russia,” the ministry added.

Russia’s recent veto against extending U.N. monitoring of sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles program, effectively ending 14 years of cooperation, was “a clear sign” that the work contemplated in the classified addendum is already underway, said a leading Russian academic with close ties to senior Russian diplomats. The academic spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations in Moscow.

“Russia can create difficulties for the U.S. in many different regions of the world,” the academic said. “This is about the Middle East, northeast Asia, the African continent and even Latin America.”

The creation of the Foreign Policy Concept and the classified addendum followed a call to Russian academics for policy suggestions. One proposal submitted in February 2023 to the Foreign Ministry by the deputy head of Moscow’s Institute for the Commonwealth of Independent States, which maintains close ties to Russia’s security apparatus, laid out Russia’s options more bluntly still.

The academic, Vladimir Zharikhin, called for Russia to “continue to facilitate the coming to power of isolationist right-wing forces in America,” “enable the destabilization of Latin American countries and the rise to power of extremist forces on the far left and far right there,” as well as facilitate “the restoration of European countries’ sovereignty by supporting parties dissatisfied with economic pressure from the U.S.”

Other points in the policy proposal, which was also provided to The Post, suggested that Moscow stoke conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan to bring Russia and China closer together, as well as “to escalate the situation in the Middle East around Israel, Iran and Syria to distract the U.S. with the problems of this region.”

For Mikhail Khodorkovsky — the longtime Putin critic who was once Russia’s richest man until a clash with the Kremlin landed him 10 years in prison — it is not surprising that Russia is seeking to do everything it can to undermine the United States. “For Putin, it is absolutely natural that he should try to create the maximum number of problems for the U.S.,” he said. “The task is to take the U.S. out of the game, and then destroy NATO. This doesn’t mean dissolving it, but to create the feeling among people that NATO isn’t defending them.”

The long congressional standoff on providing more weapons to Ukraine was only making it easier for Russia to challenge Washington’s global power, he said.

“The Americans consider that insofar as they are not directly participating in the war [in Ukraine], then any loss is not their loss,” Khodorkovsky said. “This is an absolute misunderstanding.”

A defeat for Ukraine, he said, “means that many will stop fearing challenging the U.S.” and the costs for the United States will only increase.

More at the link!

For our Russian speakers, if any of you would like to translate the pdf of the annex that was provided to WaPo into English for me, it’s at this link. Just email it to me at my Balloon Juice contact address. Thanks in advance.

Given the WaPo’s reporting above and most of what I’ve written here since 2015, he’s back…

It's official!

Paul Manafort, who was convicted of tax and bank fraud, conspiracy to defraud the US, and witness tampering, and who a bipartisan Senate report labeled a “grave counterintelligence threat” because of his ties to a Russian spy, has joined Trump's 2024 campaign. https://t.co/0CALyvDGSA

— Polly Sigh (@dcpoll) April 17, 2024

Kyiv:

“Budanov predicted that Russia will launch a big offensive starting in June to try to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk, the two provinces known as the Donbas region, which Russia has claimed but doesn’t control. The Russians will then focus on the November elections in the…

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 17, 2024

Avdiivka front:

Kriegforscher via the Thread Reader App:

In the nearest future I will publish a short thread about the biggest Russian advance near Tonenke, Avdiivka area, where they used a tank battalion in charge.

But right now I would like to say a couple of words about FPV drones and the dillusional reality they have created. 

First of all, a short remark: I am totally supportive of FPV drones. With both of my hands.

But U need understand some thing: that’s not a panacea. Not at all. 

U see only successful hits on Twitter or TG channels and they create a wrong point of thinking.

Unfortunately, we use so much FPV drones because of lack of ammo for mortars, ATGMs, artillery and even antitank mines. 

IMHO, every army needs to has them. They are cheap and very effective, FIRST OF ALL, against the enemy logistics. That’s out of the question and they are really needed. 

But here, in your TV war, you mostly see, especially right now, how the enemy columns charge so let’s talk a little bit about this. 

1) they wouldn’t even be able to reach our positions if we had enough antitank mines. Same with artillery;

2) they wouldn’t be able to reach the city of Krasnogorivka, that’s the best example right now, if we had enough ATGMs.

But they did. 

We have at that direction FPV drones. But they cannot change the fact that RUAF AFV are driving there like at home. 

And finally , that the biggest charge near Tonenke was stopped with the help of ATGMs and artillery. And well trained and motivated infantry.

Not with the help of FPV drones. They just finished the job (mostly damaged and abandoned AFVs). 

FPV drones are not the key. And not the panacea.

IMHO, the key is:

1) enough artillery shells;
2) well trained infantry;
3) mobility of your forces (AFV).

That’s at least. 

I am sorry, I am just fucking tired of what I see and when I have phone calls with possible recruits everyone asks me about FPV drones because they see the war via TG channels. 

Dzankhoi, Russian occupied Crimea:

/1. This night there was a missile attack on the Russian airbase in Dzhankoi, Crimea.
Russian media claims that 7-8 ballistic missiles were launched during the attack. pic.twitter.com/ztvWO109tp

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024

/3. Additional footage of the results of the missile strikes on Russian Dzhankoi airbase pic.twitter.com/xm6Q9U3Oa8

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024

/5. Missile debris. https://t.co/zPD6aJhCie

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024

/7. In details about the Dzhankoy attack and first imagery of the aftermath of the attack. https://t.co/cVP6nOXHbJ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024

🚀💥Regarding the strike on Dzhankoy, as well as first footage of the aftermath of the attack. Destroyed Russian S-400 air defence system equipment.

«Tonight, April 17, 2024, the military airfield of the 39th helicopter regiment of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army… https://t.co/JGcByoXt6s pic.twitter.com/z1Z6G9mXhr

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024

🚀💥Regarding the strike on Dzhankoy, as well as first footage of the aftermath of the attack. Destroyed Russian S-400 air defence system equipment.

«Tonight, April 17, 2024, the military airfield of the 39th helicopter regiment of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army (military unit 46453, Dzhankoy) was attacked.

The photo shows the destroyed S-400 Triumph air defense system.

The strike was carried out by two MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles.

The first blow hit the positions of the S-400 Triumph air defense system. 3 launchers and radar were destroyed.

The second hit was at the point for receiving and repairing military equipment of the 77th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (military unit 33742, Krasnodar Territory). At the time of the impact, two S-300 launchers (of an unknown modification) were being serviced at the point. Also, as a result of the impact at the point, a secondary detonation of ammunition occurred. What exactly exploded is unknown.

There is no information about damaged helicopters yet.

Preliminary (as of 06:00) – 15 wounded, 22 missing.»

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/519

Voronezh, Russia:

Drone attack reported in Voronezh, Russia. Air raid alert in the region. pic.twitter.com/wX36Awlhoz

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

This is my city. My Chernihiv. Here, you do see no « pictures of the war ». Here, you see the pictures of war crimes. A lot of people died, including kids. Please help me and my people to survive. I don’t ask you to come and fight for the future of this world. We ask for more air… pic.twitter.com/L2ydgwUu13

— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 17, 2024

This is my city. My Chernihiv. Here, you do see no « pictures of the war ». Here, you see the pictures of war crimes. A lot of people died, including kids. Please help me and my people to survive. I don’t ask you to come and fight for the future of this world. We ask for more air defense systems for Ukrainian cities #UkraineNeedAirDefence

Open thread!

Ukraine Will Request a Meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council – Address of the President of Ukraine

16 April 2024 – 20:03

Dear Ukrainians!

The key points of the day.

First, the Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and the Defense Minister Umerov delivered a report. It was about the situation at our frontline and our defensive actions. The task is obvious: to maximize the deterrence of Russian assaults and to repel every attack of the occupier.

Second, the heads of the Special Services, including the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, reported on countering internal threats, and, of course, on the efforts of the personnel to defend Ukraine against the occupier. Right now, we can see that Ukrainian Special Services are very effective in eliminating the enemy. Today I would like to mention the results of the soldiers of the Centre of Special Operations “A” of the Security Service of Ukraine. They effectively destroy Russian surface-to-air missile systems. Thank you! I would also like to mention the officers of the SSU’s 13th Main Directorate of the Military Counterintelligence Department, who are doing everything to suppress Russia’s ability to terrorize Ukraine. They are destroying Russian radar stations, which were used, in particular, for Russian aviation and guided bombing. We will destroy absolutely everything that harms Ukraine. And I thank each and every one of our soldiers, the Security Service of Ukraine, all the special services and units that are doing their best to protect our country and our people.

Third. I held a preparatory meeting with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, the representatives of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, and the Office. We are currently preparing an agenda for the National Security and Defense Council to discuss the threats to the security of our state and society posed by the proliferation of online casinos and the lack of control over this area. All opportunities in this area to manipulate people and harm the interests of society must and will be blocked. It is also important to mention the author of the relevant petition, the petition to restrict online casinos, which started the discussion today. It was a Ukrainian soldier, Junior Sergeant Pavlo Petrychenko, a soldier of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade. Yesterday, he was killed in a battle. My condolences to Pavlo’s family and friends. The existence of our entire Ukraine is made up of the lives and aspirations, the will and achievements of such men and women. Many of those who could not and do not imagine Ukraine apart from their own actions to protect it, to develop it, to strengthen it. We all should remember that Ukraine is made up of people who care, who really care, about what will happen to Ukraine. We must always remember every such person, always support them, and do whatever we can to ensure that our country withstands the invader and protects its people, its land, and its independence. I am confident that it will.

And one more thing. We work every day without a single break to increase our potential in the world — in our relations with partners. We work to get more real help. To achieve true equality in the defense against terror, when the same, truly equal rules apply to us here in Ukraine, in Europe, and in other parts of the world, when we face the same manifestations of terror, the same missile and drone attacks. In the last two days we have heard all kinds of things. About different conflicts — here in Europe and in the Middle East — different levels of threats, different airspace. Although the “Shahed” drones and ballistics are the same… Different threats of escalation. But are human lives different, are people’s values different? No, they are not. We value every life equally. We must do so. We must protect them from terror on the same level. Ukraine will request a meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council to discuss the protection of the skies, the supply of anti-aircraft warfare, relevant systems and missiles. We are actively working now to ensure a productive first Global Peace Summit in June. We thank all the leaders and states that have expressed this week their willingness to participate in the Summit in Switzerland. I would like to express my special gratitude for the efforts of Olaf, Mr. Chancellor, for his leadership and relevant international communication — for the signals we have heard from Beijing. China can really help us restore the just peace for Ukraine and the stability in international relations. The Summit in Switzerland gives us all a real chance to make the Charter of the United Nations, its goals and principles, really work.

I thank everyone who helps! I thank each and every one of you who defends our country, our people and the common justice that is equal for all nations! And may the memory of all Ukrainians who gave their lives for Ukraine be eternal and bright!

Glory to Ukraine!

Russia launched eleven missiles at Trypilska power plant, that supplies Kyiv with electricity. The first seven, we took down. Four destroyed Trypilska. Why? Because we had zero missiles. We ran out of all missiles. — Zelensky for PBS pic.twitter.com/mJlHr2LNYR

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 16, 2024

The West is afraid of Russia's defeat in Ukraine due to the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation and strengthening of China, which will seize part of the Russian Federation's territories – President Zelensky in an interview with PBS.

"There are voices coming from the West… pic.twitter.com/F25lfN4LwW

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 16, 2024

The West is afraid of Russia’s defeat in Ukraine due to the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation and strengthening of China, which will seize part of the Russian Federation’s territories – President Zelensky in an interview with PBS.

“There are voices coming from the West saying that we are afraid. What’s going to happen to Russia if Russia loses? So, are they not afraid that we are dying here every day? But they’re very afraid that there will be some sort of a danger, some sort of a migration crisis? What’s going to happen? Maybe China will be very strong. And if Russia will panic and have a revolution, then China will capture part of the territory of Russia, et cetera. So everyone is afraid. God forbid China will be strong. God forbid there would be no Putin and there will be many countries (on the territory of the Russian Federation – Ed.). What’s going to happen to Russia’s nuclear weapons? What will happen to Russia’s nuclear weapons?”, Zelenskyy asked.

Here’s the full video of President Zelenskyy’s interview with PBS’s Newshour:

The cost:

"The first dawn of 2023" by the fallen warrior Pavlo Petrychenko, killed in action a few hours before his birthday. I genuinely don't understand why my nation has to endure all this pain, terror and injustice pic.twitter.com/lnyC0C0NZP

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 16, 2024

The differences between how Israel is protected by the US and its allies and partners – both NATO and non-NATO – and how Ukraine is being given voice by the Ukrainians:

Of course, Western militaries will never be protecting Ukrainian skies from drones and missiles as they do with Israel.

Because that is Iran, and this is Russia, and this world is neither fair nor supposed to univocally stand for the good and combat the evil.

Of course,…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 16, 2024

Of course, Western militaries will never be protecting Ukrainian skies from drones and missiles as they do with Israel.

Because that is Iran, and this is Russia, and this world is neither fair nor supposed to univocally stand for the good and combat the evil.

Of course, London, Paris, Warsaw, or Washington D.C. will never be willing to be directly involved in repelling Russian aggression in Ukraine – because it’s not Quaddafi, not al-Assad, or ISIS affiliates in Africa, or the Taliban.

That’s why we have always been saying that providing the Ukrainian military with all necessary aid is a win-win strategy – we get to save our country from extermination, you get to deter and curtail the world’s biggest war at the moment with not a single European or American serviceperson involved in hostilities.

Moreover, helping Ukraine defeat the Kremlin’s killing spree was applicably reducing the likelihood of the West’s unwanted direct military intervention – which is just what Western leaders and Western public opinion quite expectedly want.

But you know, surprisingly enough, two years of escalation management, trying to ‘save Putin’s face,’ procrastination, and petty politics gave Putin 2 years to recover and prepare for a large-scale, prolonged war of territorial grabs he has zero reasons to stop.

Moreover, given what’s happening now to the West in general, the Kremlin is now as confident and encouraged to do whatever the hell it wants ® to Ukraine and beyond.

Putin is more than happy to have this war by his rules, under which Russia is fully entitled to any sort of atrocities and massive war crimes against Ukraine, and Ukraine must somehow watch out for Russia’s precious oil production – otherwise, Russians will throw a nuclear escalation tantrum into Jake Sullivan’s phone.

He is more than happy to see the West restricting itself to absurdity in the light of the biggest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler. Why not take more, and more, and more, and more, if the West seems to be ready to give up everything at any price?

I honestly don’t know how myopic one needs to be to fail to see that these two years of half-measures and appeasement only made things worse and only made a direct NATO-Russia clash more probable.

See, Vladimir Putin doesn’t care how good-intended, pro-peace, and anti-war you are. He sees weakness, he sees an invitation for more aggression, he sees an easy way to get ‘yet another grand geopolitical victory’ with no consequences.

The only realistic way to stop him in Ukraine is to provide Ukraine with arms to overwhelm this increasingly hungry monster and bring peace back to us all.

And don’t get me started on how Ukraine should ‘stand on its own’ and ‘stop begging for aid’ – I’d love to see a list of nations that would be able to wage a years-long, full-scale, high-intensity war against an adversary as gargantuan as Russia and with no allies or backers.

This war can still end with the free world’s victory in Ukraine and without Putin’s bloodlust spilling out into the Baltic nations, Moldova, Scandinavia, Poland etc.

There’s still time and a chance, even though a lot has been stupidly lost.

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Everyone’s favorite think tank Russia SME and a Hopkins-SAIS Kissinger Center distinguished professor had an essay published in Foreign Affairs today. Some of it is interesting, all of it is incredibly credulous. It was not met with a lot of acclaim.

While Ukraine is not getting basic aid necessary for our survival, you all of a sudden recalled an important topic to research into, that "putin was surprisingly ready for serious concessions and may be again". Surely, with the russian war machine in full mode, with 550 B $ oil…

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 16, 2024

While Ukraine is not getting basic aid necessary for our survival, you all of a sudden recalled an important topic to research into, that “putin was surprisingly ready for serious concessions and may be again”. Surely, with the russian war machine in full mode, with 550 B $ oil and gas profits, Iranian, North Korean and Chinese help.

Also, Charap can very be proud of his previous wise and strategic analysis, too: we’re experiencing just now how Western weapons aren’t making any difference in Ukraine. Every night, seeing how lack of air defenses impact our economy, energy system, and our lives.

There's nothing 'complicated' about this lost paradise of the 'Istanbul deal that could have ended the war' – the Kremlin was never even closely serious about those 'contacts' with Ukraine, and it was forwarding knowingly unacceptable and absurd demands while regrouping for a new…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 16, 2024

There’s nothing ‘complicated’ about this lost paradise of the ‘Istanbul deal that could have ended the war’ – the Kremlin was never even closely serious about those ‘contacts’ with Ukraine, and it was forwarding knowingly unacceptable and absurd demands while regrouping for a new offensive in Donbas following the March setback at Kyiv.

The problem is that certain high-browed armchair strategists somehow persuaded themselves that Putin was a good-faith dove of peace offering a perfect deal he’d respect forevermore, while those dumb, mean Ukrainians rejected his noble gesture because Boris Johnson made them do so.

Mark my words based on real world experience from 25+ years. Russia has never had a genuine intention to negotiate a peace deal in the first phase of the war on Ukraine. Its modus operandi against Ukraine between 2014-2022 was attack-negotiate-cease fire-attack, rinse & repeat. https://t.co/T5znQe5iMj

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) April 16, 2024

Daniel Szeligowski, the Head of Research Programme and Senior Research Fellow on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs had a long, detailed, very interesting assessment that picked most of Charap’s and Radchenko’s essay apart, while also breaking some new information. Here it is from the Thread Reader App:

🧵 This is already making rounds, so I will try to shed some more light on March/April 2022 Ukraine-Russia talks since the article is still far from the point, and because Poland played a much bigger role than anyone is willing to admit publicly

The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in UkraineA hidden history of diplomacy that came up short—but holds lessons for future negotiations.https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine

You can easily Google this photo. This is just a tip of the iceberg

And you can easily Google this photo as well. Resemblance is purely coincidental (until it is not)

Charap & Radchenko rely heavily on the *Western* sources, but these were interesting times when our Western colleagues found themselves not being really in the loop, although they happily provide you with some post-factum interpretation today 

We were never close to any deal. Russia never negotiated in good faith. Moscow sent a delegation that was composed of the most anti-Ukrainian officials you can imagine. Their goal was to present the Ukrainian side with an ultimatum, not to *negotiate*

During the talks, the Russian officials issued threats against members of the Ukrainian delegation and their families. This pretty tells you what the Russian attitude was at that particular time 

While still in Belarus, the Russian delegation openly suggested to the Ukrainian delegation that they declare capitulation. Ukrainians responded with a now legendary sentence: иди на хуй (roughly: f* off) 

The talks moved to Turkey then. On the plane, members of the Ukrainian delegation had symptoms of poisoning. Later on, test results proved an unknown chemical substance in the body of now Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov. Russians “sent a message” – we can get you 

Russia never abandoned its maximalist goal. Realising that the plan to seize Kyiv “in three days” had failed, Moscow wanted to subjugate Ukraine at the negotiating table, but missed the moment when the fortune turned in favour of Ukraine and they were thrown out from Kyiv region 

Unlike our Western colleagues, Poland believed from the beginning that the Russians were bluffing and so we advised accordingly our Ukrainian friends. We were in a pretty comfortable position to do it, since Polish SOF provided security for the Ukrainian delegation 

Yes, Ukraine was ready to make concessions, but they were conditional on western security guarantees, which the West was ultimately not ready to give (one reason was that our western colleagues simply did not know much about the talks as such) 

The talks collapsed because the Russians never negotiated seriously, and so they did not show due flexibility (contrary to what Charap and Radchenko claim). Russia demanded Ukraine’s demilitarisation and aimed at sanctioning of Russian influence over Ukrainian domestic 

And then Bucha came. The scale of Russian crimes was so huge that it shocked even the Polish side (which, after all, has experienced Russian atrocities itself). Further talks with Russia were simply no-go for Zelensky, especially that Russian troops were already on defensive 

Ever since, Russians have argued that an agreement with Ukraine was close, but the West intervened, notably Boris Johnson, whom Russia accused of forcing Ukraine to abandon the negotiations 

This bears no relation to reality, of course, but somehow still resonates with many of the Western decision-makers and their pundits. But Velina puts nicely what I think of that as well:

If you wanna know *a bit* more, please read this article, published by an authoritative Polish media outlet. Yep, it’s in Polish, but Google Translate or AI would do the job these days

Komandosi na Białorusi i delikatna misja w Turcji. Kulisy polskich operacji podczas wojny na Ukrainie [OPINIA]Żołnierze z polskich oddziałów specjalnych ochraniali oligarchę Romana Abramowicza, który był pośrednikiem w rozmowach ukraińsko-rosyjskich w pierwszych tygodniach wojny. Zapewniali również bezpieczeń…https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/8680269,zolnierze-polskie-oddzialy-specjalne-wojna-w-ukrainie-komandosi.html

I admit that Charap & Radchenko did a good job, this is possibly the best article on Ukraine-Russia talks I have ever read. The problem is that the point of reference is so lame. And that’s why even a good text doesn’t reflect half of what really happened these days of 2022 

On a last note – the flawed theory that Ukraine-Russia deal was reportedly almost there has been and will be used in the public debate to share the narrative that Ukraine should accept the Russian demands (since it reportedly accepted them in 2022, which, again, was *not* true) 

I don’t think that Charap and Radchenko deliberately omitted Poland and the Polish sources. I guess they have simply been unaware of the role that Poland played in the whole story. Western experts often think that Central Europe has no agency, but sometimes we prove them wrong :) 

So we now know that Polish SOF were providing the personal security detail (PSD) for the Ukrainian negotiators. We also now have independent confirmation that the Russians had actually poisoned members of the Ukrainian delegation, which we covered at the time back in 2o22. Szeligowski is far more generous that I am towards Charap and Radchenko by giving them the benefit of the doubt that they are making a good faith effort with this essay. You can read the whole thing if you like, but if you’ve been reading along her since the first war update, you already know the history, so what you’re reading for would be the author’s interpretation of events from a selective reading of selective documentation. The naivete to believe after Grozny and Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, and eastern Moldova now doing business as Transnistria that anyone believes Putin and his diplomatic and national security teams are good faith negotiators is just astoundingly naive.

More interesting and informative, is this Economist interview with Ukraine’s new national security chief.

NOT MANY non-Russians know Russia as well as Oleksandr Lytvynenko. Ukraine’s new national security chief spent five formative years in Moscow as a cryptology cadet at the elite KGB Academy. More recently, as head of Ukraine’s foreign-intelligence service during two years of war, he busied himself undermining and extracting information from his one-time peers. At the end of March, he took over one of the country’s most critical jobs.

So Mr Lytvynenko deserves to be listened to. And he has a warning for those Western politicians (Donald Trump being the most notorious example) thinking about pushing a premature peace deal on Ukraine which would require it to give up territory. “Putin has lied, is lying, and will continue to lie.” Ceding territory to Russia in return for peace would be a “cruel betrayal” of the Ukrainians left under violent occupation, he says. Many more innocent people would be killed, more would be thrown into cellars.

But there is a more pragmatic reason to reject it, too. An agreement made with a compulsive liar probably means only one thing: him regrouping, rearming and trying for more in two or three years. Russia’s leader is “addicted” to the idea of conquering Ukraine, Mr Lytvynenko says. “The next time he won’t make mistakes, but will prepare his operation much more carefully, according to all the laws of military art.”

Things were not supposed to have turned out like this for Russia, of course. Ukraine was not expected to put up a fight. Russian soldiers were supposed to be parading in Kyiv within days of the invasion. With his “blitzkrieg”, Mr Putin’s aim was to present the West with a fait accompli, Mr Lytvynenko argues. “He wanted to say: Ukraine’s over, guys, now let’s talk on my terms.” Ukraine’s heroism foiled that plan. It also fundamentally changed the negotiation. “Now a victory over the West can only come if Putin first has victory in Ukraine. In Russians’ minds, victory in Ukraine means victory over the United States.”

Has the message got through to those who need to hear it? Mr Lytvynenko heaves a sigh, and delivers a politician’s line, stressing Ukraine’s “critical partnership with the American state…regardless of who is in power.” This week, Congress might finally begin the task of signing off on much-needed military assistance. But even if it does, the emphasis is on giving Ukraine just enough to stay in the game, rather than the tools to secure a victory. And all this is before a possible Trump presidency, which could make things much more precarious.

Mr Lytvynenko is a close observer of American politics, and says he understands the extent to which the administration is worried about escalation and the global implications of war in Ukraine. But he says a Ukrainian victory would reduce, not increase, the risk of confrontation. “Leaders would become risk-averse.” A Ukrainian defeat, on the other hand, would be interpreted as proof that invasions work, with domino-like consequences in China, Taiwan, and beyond. “If aggression works once, everyone will think about having a go. Too many people are watching this war too intently.”

The security chief says Mr Putin has not yet stepped back from his maximalist aims, namely “to destroy the Ukrainian state and turn it into a buffer zone”. The Russian Orthodox church’s recent declaration of “sacred war” against Ukraine only underlines that determination. That announcement, undoubtedly made with the Kremlin’s blessing, was an “attempt to untie Putin’s hands”, and sanction harsh new campaigns against civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Odessa, Zaporizhia and beyond. The newly fanatical rhetoric is “something best compared to Islamic State”, the official continues: “It’s crucial to understand that Putinism has not yet completed its evolution. It could get even worse. If the West does not stop this, it will end up paying more later, and with its own lives. Assisting Ukraine isn’t about charity.”

After hopes for a breakthrough faded in 2023, momentum on the battlefield has shifted decisively against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin and his militarised economy have now geared up for a long war, and the West is so far unwilling to unequivocally challenge him. Front-line positions are under constant threat, with Russian guns firing at six times the rate of the Ukrainians’, and planes taking advantage of patchy air defences to launch more and more guided aerial bombs. The situation has become “very tough”, Mr Lytvynenko says. “Russians don’t care about their losses and it makes the situation even more difficult.”  When asked how Ukraine might begin to get to a winning position again, the official is non-committal. It is not clear if Mr Putin could ever stop attacking Ukraine, he says, but Ukraine has to adopt a military strategy that tries to force him to.

Bakhmut:

Russia’s occupying forces in Bakhmut just published on one of their Telegram channels new video footage and photos of the eastern Ukrainian city almost a year after it was destroyed and captured. The photos are stomach-churning and I admit they fill me with rage. I’ll post them… pic.twitter.com/3BIk9dS3rN

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 16, 2024

Russia’s occupying forces in Bakhmut just published on one of their Telegram channels new video footage and photos of the eastern Ukrainian city almost a year after it was destroyed and captured. The photos are stomach-churning and I admit they fill me with rage. I’ll post them below beside my own photos from when I lived in Bakhmut in 2010-2012, when it was a vibrant, peaceful city that 80,000 called home.

These images show the central square fountain and city hall — or where city hall stood before it was blown up. The first two were taken under Russian occupation. The other two are mine from 14 years ago.

More in the thread at the link!

Krasnohorivka:

Not near Krasnohorivka, but an advance IN Krasnohorivka. This video was easy to geolocate because of the slag heap and lakes and knowing the area well: the Russian armor moves NW into southern district (south side of the railway) of the city and along Zaliznychna Street. No doubt… https://t.co/1mOrsxpcCf

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 16, 2024

Not near Krasnohorivka, but an advance IN Krasnohorivka. This video was easy to geolocate because of the slag heap and lakes and knowing the area well: the Russian armor moves NW into southern district (south side of the railway) of the city and along Zaliznychna Street. No doubt this mechanized attack and others like it are possible right now because of Ukraine’s shortage of artillery shells, due to Republicans’ blocking the military aid bill in Congress.

Chasiv Yar:

Utter destruction. The Russian army’s wiping another Ukrainian city off the map. Chasiv Yar, once a peaceful little spot with a great swimming hole and surrounded by fields, is Russia’s latest target. This is happening while Republicans block military aid. pic.twitter.com/jwSpEtdIzL

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 16, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here’s some adjacent material.

This is muffin, she’s not back with Eugene Kibets after getting emergency treatment for a kidney ailment.

pic.twitter.com/D8kpOYy0fA

— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 16, 2024

ADOPTED—three beauties surviving in war torn Ukraine. Thanks Uncle Eugene @eugenehmg. pic.twitter.com/09WDvpP7ig

— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) April 16, 2024

Open thread!