Russia

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Once again, I wish everyone who celebrates today, on this day, which has already become historic for Ukraine, for the spiritual independence of our people, a Merry Christmas.

I was glad today to see how many people, how many of our soldiers attended the service in the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra – in that holy place, which is one of the origins of the Ukrainian cultural tradition.

It’s very important that a sincere prayer for Ukraine was today and will continue to be heard in the Lavra. And that no one will make Ukrainian a stranger in the laurel.

Ukrainian independence must be strong in all its elements. And it will be like that. Forever. We’re bringing it ourselves.

And it’s very important to continue staying in the mood that was felt today. The joy of strengthening Ukraine and achieving historical justice.

I wish all Ukrainian men and women that you and I have this mood more often.

Today, I signed the decrees on the implementation of the decisions of the National Security and Defense Council – a new meeting was held.

First, we approved the general action plan of the National Security and Defense Council for this year. It will certainly be no less forceful than in previous years, and the key priority is to ensure our independence and strengthen our ability to defend ourselves – making all the steps required, using all the means that will work.

Secondly, we have an intermediate result in the work regarding many citizens of Russia and persons associated with it who justify the war, help to wage it, or glorify the terrorist state. Today, there is the first such sanctions list – there will be further decisions on sanctions against such persons.

Everyone whose voice sounds in unison with the roar of Russian artillery will be isolated from the civilized world.

And, by the way, the world was once again able to see today how false any words of any level that sound from Moscow are. They said something there about an alleged ceasefire… But the reality is that Russian rounds hit Bakhmut and other Ukrainian positions again.

It has been confirmed once again: only the expulsion of the Russian occupiers from Ukrainian land and the elimination of any opportunities for Russia to put pressure on Ukraine and the whole of Europe will mean the restoration of the ceasefire, security and peace.

It’s what we are working for, it’s exactly what the help of our partners is aimed at, and it’s exactly what the entire civilized world has now.

And I thank everyone who helps us defend the independence of Ukraine!

Thanks to everyone who fights and works for our country!

Today we are one step closer to our victory.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT/1950 UTC 7 JAN/ Despite a unilateral ‘Christmas’ cease fire’ RU’s 6th Separate Cossack Motor Rifle Reg. & Wagner PMCs attacked UKR troops in the vicinity of the salt mine complex at Soledar. RU units have gained control of the urban area east of the rail right-of-way. pic.twitter.com/tPEN0A2UQK

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 7, 2023

 

#Ukraine army ranked 15th on Global Firepower rating. But we know it’s really number 1

— Lesia Vasylenko (@lesiavasylenko) January 7, 2023

Touch not the cat, bot a glove!

So.
I see we’re moving towards Ukraine being provided with Leopard 2s. Nations seem to have finally decided to put this war to an end.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 7, 2023

Sea Sparrows too!

The U.S. military aid package to Ukraine will for the first time include Sea Sparrow missiles, which can intercept aircraft or cruise missiles. Ukrainian military has managed to tweak Soviet-era BUK launchers to fire the Sea Sparrow. -according to Politicohttps://t.co/wt8nXeCkjT pic.twitter.com/DuWiiqYTJ7

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 6, 2023

Politico has the specifics:

The package will for the first time include radar-guided Sea Sparrow anti-air missiles, which can be launched from the sea or on land to intercept aircraft or cruise missiles. In a bit of battlefield innovation, the Ukrainian military has managed to tweak its existing Soviet-era BUK launchers to fire the Sea Sparrow, two people familiar with the matter said. Up to this point, Taiwan has been the only country to operate the ground-launched version of the missiles, while the U.S. and multiple allied navies use the ship-mounted version.

Putin’s unilateral Eastern rite Christmas ceasefire in action:

A 66-year-old man and a 61-year-old woman were killed and 13 other local residents were injured as a result of the russia’s «Christmas shelling» in Bakhmut.#russiaisaterroriststate

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 7, 2023

Putin's cannon fodder: this photo claims to show dead Russian soldiers following one of many recent frontal attacks on Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut – the Kremlin is trying to overwhelm Ukraine's defenses with suicidal attacks pic.twitter.com/AvKb79M0N2

— Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) January 7, 2023

Well that’s Wagner PMC all over!

Area dentist has thoughts on Putin’s unilateral Eastern rite Christmas ceasefire:

Unsurprisingly, frantic mental gymnastics from Putin apologists https://t.co/SqLqX78fdq

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 7, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

It happened! Watch the first episode of the animated series «Patron The Dog” at the link (enable ENG and PL subtitles)🤩https://t.co/OKSHujHprv

Please write in the comments if you liked it❤️👅 pic.twitter.com/TKuoFgDF76

— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 7, 2023

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok! I bet you can’t guess what it’s about!

@patron__dsns

Перша серія вже на моєму YouTube! Посилання у шапці профілю☺️

♬ original sound – Patron_official

The caption machine translates as:

The first episode is already on my YouTube! Link in the profile header☺️️

Open thread!

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Finally, we can say that we have managed to bring Ukraine’s strength and defense cooperation with partners to a new level. The one we really need right now.

Now, our soldiers will have even more weapons, equipment, rounds, defense systems, which will make us much more prepared for any escalating plans of Russia and those strikes that the terrorist state inflicts, regardless of whether it is a holiday or a weekday.

I thank everyone who helps us protect our country and Ukrainians!

Since I visited the United States two weeks ago, there have already been more than 20 stages in our diplomatic marathon.

It’s my communication with the leaders of Germany, Sweden, Japan, Croatia, Spain, Latvia, Turkey, France, Denmark, Romania, Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Israel, Greece and India. In addition, my first negotiations this year with the President of the European Commission. Also constant contact with US representatives. For example, today a delegation of the Senate was in Kyiv, and also a conversation between the defense minister of Ukraine and the secretary of defense of the United States was held.

And today, a new package of US defense assistance for our country was announced – and a very powerful one!

For the first time, we will get Bradley fighting vehicles – this is exactly what is needed. New guns and projectiles, including high-precision ones. New missiles. New drones. It’s timely and strong. The total amount of this support package from the United States is almost $3 billion.

I thank President Biden, I thank the congressmen and all Americans who value freedom, and who know that freedom is worth protecting, and who heard Ukraine during my visit to Washington. We see absolutely concrete results of this visit and our negotiations.

We now have a significant step forward by Germany to strengthen the security of not only Ukraine but also the whole of Europe, especially the entire region bordering Russia. Strengthening our air defenses is a direct de-escalation effort here and now. The fewer opportunities Russia has to terrorize peaceful cities, the less the overall potential of Russian aggression will be.

I thank Chancellor Scholz for the decision to provide Ukraine with the Patriot air defense system! Together with the brilliant German IRIS-T, the Patriot system will make Ukrainian and European skies much safer.

Also today, with Mr. Chancellor, we discussed other aspects of our defense cooperation, in particular, 40 Marder vehicles and other things that are necessary to stop Russian aggression.

A very important talk was held today with Prime Minister of Japan Kishida.

Last year, Japan became a leader among Asian countries in the protection of freedom and international law. I am sure that this year too – especially with Japan’s chairmanship of the Group of Seven, which began in January – we will be able to do even more together for our common security. Actually, today we agreed on priorities for cooperation this year.

And I thank Mr. Prime Minister for a very serious package of energy assistance – powerful generators for our country and people.

Today’s conversation with the Prime Minister of Sweden can also be called strategic. The Swedish Presidency of the Council of the European Union has now begun, and we expect to begin negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union during the Swedish presidency. It’s an important motivational element for Ukraine and all Europeans. Despite any attempts by Russia to destabilize Europe, together we become even stronger in all aspects, including institutional ones.

So, as of now, for Ukraine, there is more air defense, more armored vehicles, for the first time – Western tanks, more guns and rounds, more energy and political opportunities. And all this means more protection for Ukrainians and all Europeans from any manifestations of Russian terror.

Ruscism must lose this war – in everything and everywhere. On land, in the sky, on the sea, in energy, in the economy, in politics, and finally – on the dock in the international tribunal for this aggression against Ukraine. Every day, together with our partners, we bring this sentence for terrorists closer. Peace is getting closer every day.

I will continue our diplomatic marathon next week. Let’s make Ukraine even stronger!

I thank everyone who defends our country! Thanks to everyone who keeps Bakhmut and Donetsk region! To everyone who is moving forward in Luhansk region! To all who hold the south! To all who defend our sky!

Dear Ukrainians!

Please remember what evil is at war against us. Pay attention to the air raid alerts, and especially during these holidays. Our air defense fighters will do everything possible. But please help them by taking care of your own safety.

Glory to Ukraine!

The US announced a new $3 billion aid package for Ukraine, which included the Bradley’s we mentioned yesterday.

RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
More Than $3 Billion in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
Jan. 6, 2023 |

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the Biden Administration’s commitment of $3.075 billion in additional security assistance for Ukraine. This includes the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $2.85 billion to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs, as well as the Department of State’s announcement of $225 million in Foreign Military Financing to contribute to the long-term capacity and modernization of Ukraine’s military.

The Presidential Drawdown is the twenty-ninth such drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine that the Biden Administration has authorized since August 2021. Capabilities in this package include:

50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles with 500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 250,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition;
100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
55 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
138 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
18 155mm self-propelled Howitzers and 18 ammunition support vehicles;
70,000 155mm artillery rounds;
500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
1,200 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
36 105mm towed Howitzers and 95,000 105mm artillery rounds;
10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
RIM-7 missiles for air defense;
4,000 Zuni aircraft rockets;
Approximately 2,000 anti-armor rockets;
Sniper rifles, machine guns, and ammunition for grenade launchers and small arms;
Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
Night vision devices and optics;
Spare parts and other field equipment.
The Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and other armored vehicles and artillery systems will complement the recent commitment of combat vehicles to Ukraine by Germany and France. DoD also welcomes Germany’s commitment to join the United States in supporting Ukraine’s urgent requirement for air defense capabilities by also supplying one Patriot air defense battery to Ukraine.

The Biden Administration will continue to encourage Allies and partners to make additional donations of air defense systems, artillery, combat vehicles, and other critical capabilities to support Ukraine in defense of its sovereignty and territorial integrity for as long as it takes. Toward that end, the Department of State also announced today $682 million in additional Foreign Military Financing to incentivize and backfill donations of military equipment to Ukraine by Allies and partners.

In total, the United States has committed more than $24.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration. Since 2014, the United States has committed more than $27 billion in security assistance to Ukraine and more than $24.2 billion since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked and brutal invasion on February 24.

I welcome the all-time 🇺🇸 defense aid package. Thank you @POTUS for the completely new weaponry, incl Bradley vehicles, anti-aircraft missiles. It'll strengthen 🇺🇦 Army on a battlefield. Awesome Christmas present for 🇺🇦! Together with 🇺🇸 people we're approaching a common victory!

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) January 6, 2023

Americans, you can’t even imagine how much we love you! ❤️ 🇺🇸

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 6, 2023

Discussed details of the new US package of security assistance for 🇺🇦 and next #Ramstein meeting with Lloyd J. Austin III.
Largest 🇺🇸 aid package gives us new capabilities to liberate our territory in the East and South.
Thank you to @POTUS @SecDef and the 🇺🇸 people.
🇺🇦 will win. pic.twitter.com/lGn59qIX55

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) January 6, 2023

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT AXIS /2230 UTC 6 JAN/ North of Bakhmutse, and slightly outside the coverage of this map, RU is reported to have registered gains in and around Soledar. RU social media posted photographs purporting to show RU troops in the vicinity of the salt mining complex. pic.twitter.com/5IeU39l6TJ

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 6, 2023

If you’re wondering why there’s no real pressure from Russians on their government to put a stop to this stupidity, Max Seddon at The Financial Times provides some answers:

It’s the holiday season in Moscow, where the city has put up symbols of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine outside the entrance to Gorky Park: the Latin letters Z, V and O in throbbing neon, looming over slogans urging Russians to think of “victory” and their “valiant” soldiers as they head off to the park’s ice rink.

We’re almost a year into the war, and the Kremlin still has yet to explain what exactly the letters — first seen spray-painted on Russian tanks — are meant to signify. But set alongside the snow-capped firs and kitschy grottoes, their meaninglessness is their defining feature; they are just part of the fabric that lets Muscovites go about their lives as if nothing has happened.

Missiles rain down on Kyiv almost daily. Entire towns in eastern Ukraine have been razed to the ground. Villages in Russia’s far-flung backwaters have lost much of their male of-age population to the military draft. But if there’s one city that Putin’s war doesn’t seem to have changed much, it’s Moscow. Instead of a wartime imperial stronghold, the city has become the capital of Putin’s “special operation”, the euphemism that suggests far-off commando deployments in Idlib or Bangui rather than the carnage that Russia is wreaking in the “brotherly nation” next door.

It’s an illusion strictly upheld by the Kremlin — questioning it can land you 15 years in prison for “discrediting the armed forces”. But that illusion couldn’t exist if Muscovites didn’t want to believe in it. “Nobody is doing any self-reflection. What’s the point? If you pause to stop and think about it, things just get worse,” one Kremlin-connected businessman grumbles to me.

One friend likened the experience of living in Moscow to the classic 1978 remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers, where fear and paranoia grip the human protagonists as they struggle to work out which of their friends have been replaced by monsters. It could be the mother hauled in for a parents’ evening at her daughter’s dance school, where teachers put on a conspiracy-laden video warning of western plots to destroy Russia. It could be the Skabeyeva viewers in the family of a senior Russian businessman who educates his children in Europe. “They say, ‘Fuck everyone! Let’s nuke Holland! Let’s bomb London and Washington! Send the missiles!’ I say, What about your nephew, my son? He lives there! And they say, ‘Let them live in their own country.’”

The antiwar Russians who have not left the country have opted for a Soviet tactic, “internal emigration”, whereby the kitchen table has once again become the only arena for civic discourse. “There’s no way to organise anything,” my friend Sergei*, a biologist, says of protests he attended. “Even all the third-rate opposition leaders have fled or been jailed or been killed.”

While they wait for their European visas and Israeli passports to come through, my friends are finding new ways to cope. One finds solace in days-long meditation retreats. Others have turned to various forms of casual debauchery — drugs, alcohol, sex. After the protests failed, these were the only transgressive acts they felt they had left to them. “I just felt like I had to do something bad,” says Anya*, an artist.

“I’m against the war, but . . . ” is the refrain I must commonly hear. “People are biological creatures and have to adapt,” a sanctioned oligarch says. Another laments: “The sanctions against me are like the yellow star the Nazis had for the Jews.” The heavily documented atrocities in Bucha, a town near Kyiv where Russian occupying forces allegedly raped, tortured, and murdered hundreds of civilians, “are fake”, one senior state banker argues, without evidence. “It was all staged. Just look at the camera angles.”

Much, much more at the link.

Boizhe moi!

Galactic brain. pic.twitter.com/3v3mmEMLAp

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 6, 2023

Awkward!

It’s Russian Orthodox Christmas today, and Putin is spending it alone in the Kremlin at a service seemingly not attended by anyone else pic.twitter.com/eV3i5RxHsZ

— max seddon (@maxseddon) January 6, 2023

Ukrainian carols, military style. pic.twitter.com/zwXRPLZeIM

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 6, 2023

This was linked to in the comments last night, but it deserves its own spot in the update:

The Russian military took a dog named Adik from a Ukrainian servicewoman from Azovstal in Mariupol after she was taken prisoner. The animal was gifted to the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov as a "trophy”.

He has been included in a recent prisoner swap and reunited with the owner. pic.twitter.com/F9wP1x9tHl

— Yasmina (@yasminalombaert) January 6, 2023

Look at that butt wiggle with joy!!!!!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Why can’t we trust the terrorists that they will stop firing?Because we know them for many centuries, and they always break their word. In the photo, the State Emergency Service in the Kherson region is under attack. Today. Wounded and dead rescuers😔 Photo: @libkos(Inst) pic.twitter.com/TRffo4GF4L

— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 6, 2023

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

💙💛 #славаукраїні #песпатрон

♬ original sound – IDiOtE😝😜❤️

I think by now we can all read the Ukrainian caption, but just in case the first hashtag is SlavaUkraini and the second is PatrontheDog.

Also, look at them pupper paws!!!!!

Open thread!

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

Today was another active diplomatic day – four more leaders of partner states were fully informed about Ukraine’s defense needs and the nearest plans of the terrorist state.

Russia will not be able to conceal in silence its preparations for a new wave of aggression against Ukraine and the whole of Europe. The world will know in all details – how and when the aggressor is preparing a new escalation in this war. And every new mobilization step of Russia will be known to the world even before Russia makes it. We will ensure this.

And we strengthen the defense of Ukraine every day.

I always discuss two things with all leaders – more defense support for our state, that is, more weapons for our army, and more protection for all Ukrainians – protection on the ground, in the sky and at sea.

My conversation with Prime Minister of Croatia Plenković today was not only meaningful, as always, but also quite inspiring.

I heard the full support for our state, as well as the readiness of Croatia to be a leader in the implementation of those steps that guarantee the return of security elements to Ukraine and Europe in general. Croatia is ready to be a leader in those efforts that are necessary to clear our land from Russian mines and unexploded shells. This is one of the vital tasks for our country and all Europeans.

No part of Europe should be – and will not be – contaminated with mines, no matter how hard Russia tries to fill our land with its instruments of death.

My today’s conversation with the President of Latvia was also devoted to the path that our entire continent must take to ensure truly reliable security after the defeat of Russian aggression. We discussed the points of the Ukrainian Peace Formula – security, restoration of our territorial integrity and full force of the UN Charter, as well as the fair responsibility of Russia and all its murderers for the terror against Ukrainians.

I would also like to mention the conversation with President of Türkiye Erdoğan – it concerned many elements of security in our Black Sea region.

Of course, we talked about the necessary steps to ensure food security and what needs to be done for nuclear safety and prevention of any radiation incidents, the threat of which Russia has made, unfortunately, quite real.

We also talked about the dynamics of the situation in our region – about the fact that the masters of Russia are now in a rather desperate situation due to the defeats of the occupiers at the front and are ready for various manipulations.

I am grateful to President Erdoğan for supporting our state and the necessity of fair restoration of the security of Ukraine and the whole of Europe based on the restoration of our territorial integrity.

My conversation with Prime Minister of Spain Sánchez was very meaningful and timely. On the eve of the new meeting in the Ramstein format, it is very important for each of our partners to know 100% the real situation on the frontline and what our Defense Forces are ready for. I thank Mr. Prime Minister Sánchez and all Spaniards for their unwavering support of our commitment to defend freedom.

And today I would like to express separate gratitude to President Biden and Chancellor Scholz for the decision to strengthen our defense, a very important decision. We will have another Patriot battery and powerful armored vehicles – this is truly a great victory for our country. All details and terms will be announced tomorrow – after my conversation with Mr. Chancellor.

Today, I also held a meeting of the Staff devoted primarily to the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and all our defense and security forces. We understand that we must use the nearest time – January and the beginning of February – to be ready for any attempts of terrorists to use new mobilization resources of Russia.

Today, I would like to commend our fighters of the 54th separate mechanized brigade who have been successfully holding positions in the Bakhmut direction for many months. And also – the fighters of the 35th marine brigade for the gradual, step by step liberation of our territories in the Donetsk direction. Thank you, warriors!

I am grateful to each and everyone who provides us with the much needed resilience and progress in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions!

And one more thing I want to remind the citizens of Russia today.

On November 15, the Ukrainian Peace Formula was presented. One of its points provides for the withdrawal of Russian occupation troops from the territory of our country. This is a guaranteed and reliable way to cease fire, stop casualties and war in general.

As of the morning of the same day, the number of Russian soldiers killed was 82,000.

On December 12, Russia received an offer to begin implementation of the Peace Formula with the withdrawal of occupation troops just on Christmas Day.

As of that day already, the number of Russian soldiers killed was almost 95,000.

Apparently both of our proposals have not been heard by the leaders of your country… In the place where they are, apparently, it is too deep to hear.

As of today, you have already lost almost 110,000 of your soldiers killed in this war.

Those who continued the terror against our country and sent all those people of yours to the slaughter, rejecting our offers to stop the Russian aggression, certainly do not value life and definitely do not seek peace.

Now they want to use Christmas as a cover to at least briefly stop the advance of our guys in Donbas and bring equipment, ammunition and mobilized men closer to our positions. What will this bring? Just another increase in the death toll.

Everyone in the world knows how the Kremlin uses respites at war to continue the war with renewed vigor. But to end the war faster, that is not what is needed at all. What is needed is the citizens of Russia who will find the courage to free themselves of their shameful fear of one man in the Kremlin, at least for 36 hours, at least at Christmas time.

Your fear of him destroys your country, which is also already deep… But not in a bunker.

To end the war is to end your state’s aggression. Even when your missiles and drones are not hitting our cities, the terror in the occupied territories continues. You don’t give Ukrainians any respite. People are tortured, electrocuted, raped. This continues every day while your soldiers are on our soil.

And the war will be over when your soldiers either leave or we drive them out.

So, let them take the toilet bowls – they’ll need them on the road – and go back home. Behind our border of 1991.

I thank everyone who helps our people defend freedom!

I thank everyone who fights and works to defeat terrorists!

Glory to our strong people! 

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut and Kremenna:

BAKHMUT AXIS /2140 UTC 5 JAN/ UKR air defense is confirmed to have shot down a Russian Su-35 strike aircraft near Vasela Dolyna. Initial reports suggest that the pilot was captured by UKR ground forces. pic.twitter.com/CpzofA6Fps

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 5, 2023

MANY THANKS: To @COMCEN76 for working to create these unique and updated topographic renderings– the new base maps show important details. And thanks to the many readers who asked for better renderings of terrain and features.

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 5, 2023

KRIMENNA AXIS / 2145 UTC 5 JAN/ UKR forces operational south of Krimenna urban area. RU Wagner Group units stage failed attack against Bilohorvika. RU Mi-8 helicopter confirmed downed by UKR air defense. pic.twitter.com/T46YWFypCn

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 5, 2023

Here is The Kyiv Independent‘s defense correspondent Illia Ponomarenko’s recent reporting from Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT, Donetsk Oblast — It’s the last days of December and the heat of the holiday season. But an artillery battalion with Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Infantry just couldn’t care less.

For them, it’s like Groundhog Day – just another day of war that keeps repeating over and over.

From their place in an abandoned village in Donetsk Oblast, they support Ukrainian infantry repelling Russian frontal attacks in Bakhmut. The site of the most grueling battle of Russia’s war in Ukraine so far, Bakhmut has been drawing comparisons with World War I’s deadly Battle of Verdun.

A 122-millimeter 2S1 self-propelled howitzer Gvozdika is waiting in the bushes, the dry grass around it charred after the gun’s multiple shots on the spot.

The gun is on standby. The artillerymen are in an abandoned house nearby, where they try to keep close to the cellar. The radio buzzes: A warning comes that Russians counter-shot some of this battery’s guns this morning, “so you guys better watch out.”

Time after time, other Ukrainian howitzers rattle the air. The thunder of impact rolls through the steppe, and plumes of whitish smoke rise on the horizon. The artillery duel between Russians and Ukrainians is brutal. Russian artillery is attacking from Opytne, a town just south of Bakhmut.

“Hey, did you see what happened to those dudes from our regiment the other day?” one of the crew tells his mates.

“By some miracle, the recon told them Russians were about to target their area. So they took cover at the last minute. But their machine is absolutely down. A knock-out hit.”

He pulls out a picture of a burning 2S1 howitzer on his smartphone.

“Shit happens, but they are all fine now.”

Tanks, Humvees, and seen-it-all 4×4 trucks roar time and again near the house as they try to dash through the unbelievable swamps of dirt roads.

The radio buzzes again.

“Ah, fuck,” the artillerymen drop their cigarettes and rush to the gun.

Two rounds are requested. The infantry fighting in Bakhmut need urgent support.

The howitzer gets loaded. The coordinates have been adjusted.

“Fire!” the gun’s commander shouts.

The old Soviet howitzer spits out a shot, instantly filling the air with smoke and the smell of expelled propellant. And one more time. The work is done — for now.

The crew get back to the same rhythm of waiting in a cold abandoned house for command. The wait may last a few minutes or painfully endless hours.

The grueling Battle of Bakhmut lasts for five months, but Russian forces, despite insane pressure and massive losses, have not yet managed to capture the important city, the local transportation hub and one of key fortresses of Donbas. Their slow advances finally got them to the city’s outskirts – in many ways due to their overwhelming artillery power.

But over recent weeks, Russian advances in the area have been dying down.

The Battle of Bakhmut is likely culminating.

According to international monitors, Russian forces appear to be losing their biggest advantage over Ukraine — the seemingly near-endless stocks of artillery munitions. After so many months of inadequately costly effort to encircle the Ukrainian fortress city, even popular Russian war bloggers admit the acute munitions hunger that is now impeding their advances.

Ukrainian forces on the ground confirm the rapidly decreasing activity of Russian artillery.

But meanwhile, Ukrainian artillery, despite extensive Western supplies, also struggles to make its best due to lack of munitions, especially when it comes to old Soviet standards.

On the ground, this results in horrific losses among Ukrainian infantry holding the ground for months.

Behind this grid of artillery guns pounding Russian lines around the clock, there’s just one man.

He sits at a desk in front of a laptop and an iPad in a townhouse close to the howitzers. The room is heated hot with a stove, and he is sipping coffee from his mug. This humble working place is a priority target for Russian counter-battery activity.

The man, Stepan, is watching the real-time picture of the battlefield, transmitted by the drones in the air. He coordinates the artillery strikes delivered at requests of infantry.

His iPad shows fields of black and green surrounding Bakhmut. As far as the drone’s electric eye can see, everything up to the horizon is a giant moonscape of black impact holes.

Time and again, new plumes of smoke rise up in the field from fresh impacts.

“Our godawful Starlink just isn’t working the way it should,” the specialist says as he angrily digs into his laptop.

“How am I supposed to work when the internet is so damn slow?”

As simple as that, the Ukrainian military shares the picture from drones with other units via link-only live streams on YouTube.

After five months of fighting, Russian forces near Bakhmut have only advanced between 6 and 12 kilometers east and south of the city. Since September, they have stood at the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.

But neither frontal attacks nor attempts to isolate the Bakhmut garrison from the north (via Soledar) and the south (via Kurdiumivka) have had limited results, although they put the city closer to the downfall.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, in December, Russia had concentrated 40 battalion tactical groups and the largest artillery force in the area.

After the Russian military’s spectacular failures in Kharkiv and Kherson, the battle for Bakhmut has become the Kremlin’s only realistic chance to get a victory that can be used to reinforce the pro-war propaganda.

For this sake, the Wagner Group, headed by increasingly powerful Kremlin insider Yevgeniy Prigozhyn, is going as far as the mass recruitment of convicts in Russian prisons to be thrown in the meat grinder of Bakhmut.

In December, it felt like Bakhmut might fall soon.

Russian forces made gains south of the city, aiming to sever the vital road running west to the city of Kostyantynivka. Had they succeeded, Ukrainian forces would have to withdraw from the city to avoid a death trap.

Russian forces managed to enter the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut in December. But on Dec. 21, the day after President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to the city, Ukrainian forces managed to carry out a tactical counter-attack and drive Russia out of the city.

And then on Dec. 27, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence General Kyrylo Budanov was seen visiting his scouting troops deployed in Bakhmut just 600 meters from Russia’s lines.

Many indicators allege that Russia’s pressure in Bakhmut is finally reaching its limits.

Ukrainian forces are sustaining between 3 and 8 infantry attacks in the area daily, according to troops on the ground. But over the last few weeks, Russians were seen switching to using small squads of between 10 and 15 men instead of company or battalion-sized tactical groups.

Besides, Russian airborne units were also reportedly deployed to the Bakhmut area to augment the Wagner Group, seriously degraded after months of costly attacks.

Another factor is the reportedly diminishing Russian artillery power.

In late December, Budanov said that the daily spending of Russian artillery in combat dropped from 60,000 to between 19,000 and 20,000 rounds by the end of 2022.

Moreover, according to the general, by March 2023, these issues will be even more obvious.

On Dec. 24, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense also said Russian forces currently lack the necessary stockpile to support large-scale offensive operations and sustain defensive operations in Ukraine.

Rumors on deteriorating munitions have been circulating for quite some time in Russian pro-war Telegram channels. An escalation came on Dec. 27, when the Wagner Group released a video in which two militants insult Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov and accuse him of severe lack of artillery munitions in the Bakhmut area.

Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), an open-source investigations group, however, says the current situation is precipitated by poor and ineffective logistics rather than the physical absence of munitions in Russia’s stockpile per se.

“The intensity has definitely dropped several-fold, that’s true,” artillery specialist Stepan told the Kyiv Independent near Bakhmut, as Ukrainian howitzers kept booming behind the house windows.

“Including in terms of counter-artillery activity. Which is good for us.”

From the Ukrainian side, however, the situation is no better.

Especially when it comes to Soviet-standard munitions, the main stocks of which had been largely depleted back in summer. According to the 24th Brigade artillerists, at the beginning of Russia’s war, each battery used to get up to 150 full loads of munitions a day (which corresponds to up to 6,000 rounds). Now they’re getting only up to 30 full loads a day.

“We need every single 122-millimeter round anywhere in the world so we could go on helping our infantry. We do everything we can, but we don’t have much ammo,” Ukrainian artillerists say.

“You just can’t have enough rounds in this war.”

Much, much more at the link!

More from Bakhmut:

New #satelliteimagery of the besieged city of #Bakhmut, #Ukraine. The city has been the focus of intense battles between Russian & Ukrainian forces for the past 6 months & the imagery reveals extensive damage to buildings & infrastructure. Before Aug 1, 2022, after Jan 4, 2023. pic.twitter.com/iZckjYkF7R

— Maxar Technologies (@Maxar) January 5, 2023

Putin asked for an Eastern Rite Christmas ceasefire. He is not going to get it.

First. Ukraine doesn't attack foreign territory & doesn't kill civilians. As RF does. Ukraine destroys only members of the occupation army on its territory…
Second. RF must leave the occupied territories – only then will it have a "temporary truce". Keep hypocrisy to yourself.

— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) January 5, 2023

Another sort of galaxy brains — those who will accuse Ukraine of ‘warmongering’ and ‘failing to strive for peace’ if Ukraine tells Putin to fuck off.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 5, 2023

Based. https://t.co/aFPGshgWoN

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 5, 2023

It’s not playing well with the rabidly pro-war Russian mil-bloggers either:

"The ceasefire will be a disaster. This logic has never worked."

— Will Vernon (@BBCWillVernon) January 5, 2023

"What f*cking ceasefire? What f*cking holidays? Will you bring back my friends, who are no longer with us because of your criminal orders?"

— Will Vernon (@BBCWillVernon) January 5, 2023

Wait for it. Wait for it!!!

Good falcon hunting by #UAarmy.
Watch until the end.
🎶 @the_prodigy pic.twitter.com/MUEX1xL7iC

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 5, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Patron retweeted this:

Security Dogs of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/JW7ZzdyAx6

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 4, 2023

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

🤭 #песпатрон

♬ original sound – smelliot’s priv 😝😝

I’m pretty sure the caption is self explanatory.

Open thread!

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today we have new and powerful results from our diplomatic marathon.

France takes European defense support for Ukraine to a new level, and I thank President Macron for this leadership.

We will receive more armored vehicles, in particular wheeled tanks of French production. This is what sends a clear signal to all our other partners: there is no rational reason why Ukraine has not yet been supplied with Western-type tanks. And this is very important to restore security for all Ukrainians and peace for all Europeans.

Before the new “Ramstein” such signal is extremely relevant. We must put an end to the Russian aggression this year exactly and not postpone any of the defensive capabilities that can speed up the defeat of the terrorist state. Modern Western armored vehicles, Western-type tanks are just one of these key capabilities.

I want to thank Denmark today after the conversation with Prime Minister Frederiksen. I informed her of the current situation on the frontline, that Russia is planning another wave of aggression for the coming months. We must make this wave the last one – no chance for revenge for terrorists.

Today, I have heard strong support for Ukraine from Denmark, readiness to strengthen our positions in the fight against aggression together. And it is very important that this year Denmark will defend the security and interests of Europe and international law just as after February 24.

I had a conversation with the President of Romania today. It was a meaningful and multifaceted conversation. I thanked Mr. President for the level of cooperation we achieved last year. This applies to political, defense and economic cooperation as well. We have done a lot together to protect the Black Sea region. I am confident that this year we will do even more.

As I have already said, I will continue such diplomatic activity every day – this marathon of negotiations with the leaders of partner states and friends of Ukraine around the world. We are already responding and will respond very concretely and effectively to any new attempt of the aggressor to additionally mobilize and throw something more against Ukraine. Exactly with what is necessary on the battlefield and for the protection of the entire territory of our state.

Each of our partners will have very specific information about our defense needs. And we all have the same goal: to put an end to Russian aggression as soon as possible, to restore reliable and lasting peace.

We are discussing our initiative – our Peace Formula – with all leaders. These are ten clear points. All security elements, our territorial integrity, complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine and full guarantee of justice, that is, punishment of all those guilty of this aggression and crimes against Ukraine and Ukrainians, as well as compensation for all damages caused to Ukraine at the expense of the assets of the terrorist state.

Today, I would like to praise our warriors in the Bakhmut direction, in particular, the special unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine “Shaman”, as well as the border guards of the Luhansk detachment, who, together with the fighters of the International Legion of Defense of Ukraine, inflict numerous losses to the enemy and drive the occupants out of their positions on the outskirts of Bakhmut. This is a good result, and I am grateful for it.

Each such result and each day of the enemy’s failures in the Bakhmut direction and in Donbas in general is a significant weakening of the aggressor state. The occupants have been postponing the date when they expect to capture the entire Donbas for six months. They have been expecting to do it by the New Year – and our defenders are demonstrating success again. The invaders are constantly increasing their forces in the Donetsk region – they are doing it now as well. And every such day with our successes is a new proof of the insanity of the very idea to attack Ukraine. If only such news from the front can return a sense of reality to everyone in Russia, we will have to ensure it as much as possible.

And we must understand how difficult and painful this task is. But it cannot be otherwise. Terrorists must lose despite everything they try to do to strengthen themselves.

I am grateful to our defenders of the Bakhmut fortress!

I am grateful to all our warriors who withstand the pressure in the Soledar direction and defend their positions!

I am grateful, of course, to all our fighters who provide quite encouraging news from the Luhansk region and certain southern areas of our country!

Thank you to all who fight for Ukraine! 

Thank you to all who help us!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments from Bakhmut, Kherson, and Kremenna:

BAKHMUT AXIS /1510 UTC 4 JAN/ Heavy fighting is reported as RU forces have continue a series of company / platoon-sized engagements during the last 36 hours. N of the urban area, RU troops are assaulting Bakhmutse. RU units also attacked across the T-13-02 HWY toward Podhorodne. pic.twitter.com/iKgOa7IgfF

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 4, 2023

KHERSON AXIS /1610 UTC 4 JAN/ UKR precision strikes were carried out against Hola Prystan and Velyki Kopani. A third strike was carried out S of the Dnipro at Kostohryzove. In the Zaporizhzhia oblast, strikes hit the RU commandant’s office in the occupied city of Vasylivka. pic.twitter.com/BgvqyD6gZ9

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 4, 2023

KREMENNA /2110 UTC 4 JAN/ N of Kremenna, the UKR Army’s 518th Field Batt is reported to be advancing on Pischane. S. of Kremenna, following heavy fighting near Bilohorvika yesterday, UKR's 81st Air Mobile Brig. counter-attacked Wagner group units in the vicinity of Shypylivka. pic.twitter.com/F73AgwnMIC

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 4, 2023

Bakhmut:

Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/ARfDnY8InE

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 4, 2023

Prigozhin’s excuse for why his mercenaries haven’t yet taken Bakhmut:

Prigozhin's been v active this NY. The other day he led a tour of a morgue stacked with bodies in black bags, apparently keen to show how dead fighters are respected; he toured a cemetery for dead Wagernites whose relatives don't claim them & visited injured fighters in hospital

— Sarah Rainsford (@sarahrainsford) January 3, 2023

Here’s the machine translation of RIA’s, which is Russian state owned/backed/controlled media, article:

ARTEMOVSK (DPR), January 3 – RIA Novosti. In Artemovsk (Bakhmut), the Ukrainian military has created “five hundred lines of defense”, so the advance is going with great difficulty, said Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group.

“Artemovsk is a fortress in every house. Guys butt heads for every house, sometimes for more than one day. Sometimes for weeks for one house. They took one house, they took the second house,” Prigozhin told RIA Novosti.

According to him, after the capture of another house, one cannot say that the defense of the Ukrainian military has been broken through.

“Today, in the morning, I took one house and broke through the defenses. And behind this house there is still a new defense, and not just one. And how many such lines of defense are there in Artemovsk? If we say 500, we probably won’t be mistaken. Prigogine.

The commander of one of the detachments of the group with the call sign Mekhan admitted that he was celebrating the eighth New Year at the front – since 2014 it has become a tradition.
“Every New Year is at work, somewhere in the fighting. This New Year is the brightest, because it is the toughest (year. — Approx. ed.). And even on the New Year you have to work hard, and after the New Year there will be a lot work. But we are still moving forward,” Mekhan told RIA Novosti.
According to his fighters, they do not have enough equipment, especially BMP-3, and shells, “to move faster and more confidently through Artemovsk.”

The Guardian has a deep dive into how Sumy’s residents held off the invading Russians at the beginning of the re-invasion:

On 24 February, when Russia invaded, there were only a few dozen Ukrainian professional soldiers in Ukraine’s north-eastern city of Sumy, and they had no command centre. That evening, those 50 or so paratroopers were ordered to leave the city – about 20 miles (30km) from the Russian border – for another area. Most of the police force had already fled, along with much of the city’s leadership.

Sumy’s residents were left, confused and in shock, to defend the city on their own as Russian forces rolled towards them. The Sumy self-defence forces, which formed for the most part on the first day of the invasion, managed to hold the city for almost six weeks, despite being encircled. After 6 April, the Russian forces were pushed out of Sumy region, and most of the self-defence forces members then joined the army where they are now serving.

Sumy region borders Russia on two sides, to the north and east. The efforts of Sumy self-defence forces and ordinary residents inside and outside the city contributed to the disruption of the Russian supply lines from the Russian border to Kyiv. Their efforts helped prevent Russian forces from successfully surrounding the capital and seizing control of the country’s command centre.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has commended Sumy’s territorial defence forces several times. In his New Year’s Eve address, the equivalent of the queen or king’s Christmas Day speech in Britain, Zelenskiy singled out Sumy’s resistance efforts, describing how ordinary residents became the “bone in the throat” of the Russians.

Though there were only a few thousand civilians with rifles, a few dozen anti-tank weapons and no armed vehicles or heavy weaponry, by mid-March the Russians were scared to enter the city. In an alleged recording of a phone call released by Ukrainian intelligence services on 16 March, a Russian soldier can be heard breaking down after telling his mother that they needed to take the road through Sumy city but “not a single column of [theirs] had survived”.

City council workers and close friends, 29-year-olds, Serhiy and Ihor, were among the 400 Sumy residents that took up arms on the first day of the invasion. Others joined in the days that followed as they overcame the shock, according to those involved. They said only about 20 out of 400 had previous military experience and coordination was carried out through messaging apps and phone calls, with groups riding around to locations in civilian cars and trucks to meet the incoming Russians.

“Formally it was called territorial defence forces but in reality, it was just people who had received arms from an army warehouse and formed reactive groups,” said Ihor, who along with Serhiy has now joined the regular army.

“It was so chaotic that it’s even difficult to describe,” said Ihor. “There was no coordination or instructions from Kyiv or anything like that. We made [everything] up ourselves.”

Much. much more at the link!

Reuters has a deep dive into a Russian influence operation in Germany!

In a square beneath the twin spires of Cologne’s gothic cathedral, around 2,000 protesters gathered in September to urge Germany’s government to break with the Western coalition backing Ukraine and make peace with Russia.

“We must stop being vassals of the Americans,” right-wing German politician Markus Beisicht said from a makeshift stage on the back of a truck. The crowd clapped and waved Russian and German flags.

A lean man in camouflage trousers stood at the side of the stage, obscured from the crowd by a tarpaulin. A few metres away, a burly man in dark sunglasses stood guard. The rally’s organisers did not welcome questions. Most declined to speak when approached by a Reuters reporter. One protester tried to persuade a police officer to arrest the reporter as a Ukrainian spy.

The rally was just one of many occasions – online and on the streets – where people have clamoured that Berlin should reconsider its support for Ukraine. That message taps into deep connections between Germany and Russia, with several million Russian speakers living in Germany, a legacy of Soviet ties to Communist east Germany, and decades of German dependency on Russian gas.

The stakes are high: if Germany, the European Union’s biggest economy, turns its back on Kyiv, European unity over the war will fracture.

Through interviews and a review of social media posts and other publicly available information, Reuters has established the identities of key figures involved in pushing a pro-Moscow stance inside Germany since the war began, including the two men hovering near the stage in Cologne.

The lean man is a Russian former air force officer. Originally called Rostislav Teslyuk, he changed his name to Max Schlund after settling in Germany a decade ago. In recent months, he travelled to Russian-controlled east Ukraine. More recently, a Russian government agency paid for his plane ticket to Moscow for a conference where President Vladimir Putin was the keynote speaker. The agency, Rossotrudnichestvo, is under EU sanctions for running a network of “agents of influence” spreading Kremlin narratives. Its head has branded the sanctions, imposed in July, as “insane.”

Schlund’s burly neighbour near the stage, a man called Andrei Kharkovsky, pledges allegiance to a Cossack society that is supporting Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine. Schlund and Kharkovsky didn’t answer detailed questions for this article. In a WhatsApp exchange, Schlund wrote: “Eff off!” and “Glory to Russia!”

Reuters found that some of the loudest agitators for a change in German policy have two faces. Some use aliases, and have undisclosed ties to Russia and Russian entities under international sanctions, or to far-right organisations.

German authorities have linked one of the people identified by Reuters to a far-right ideology. Some of its proponents were accused by police in December of plotting to overthrow the state. He runs a German-language social media channel called the “Putin Fanclub” and, in an echo of the alleged plot, called on social media early last year for the storming of the German parliament.

Another is a Berlin construction company executive who used to be an officer in Russia’s military intelligence. He is acquainted with one of three Russian men recently convicted by a Dutch court for helping supply the missile that downed a Malaysian passenger plane over Ukraine in 2014.

A third man is a motorcycle enthusiast who posts online alleging atrocities by Ukraine’s army and has raised money for a Russian biker gang that is under U.S. and EU sanctions for backing Putin’s war.

Germany has so far earmarked more than 1 billion euros in humanitarian aid to Ukraine and neighbouring countries, plus military equipment including advanced air defence systems. The majority of Germans still support Ukraine, but after a steep rise in energy costs, polls show fewer are keen on expanding military support.

The German government didn’t respond to detailed questions for this article but the Interior Ministry said it takes “very seriously” any attempts by foreign states or individuals to exert influence, especially “in the context of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.” The Kremlin didn’t answer questions from Reuters. Beisicht, the politician who spoke at the Cologne rally, told Reuters he has worked closely with the protest’s organisers. He didn’t address Reuters findings about their associations.

Ties between Germany and Russia stretch back centuries. Empress Catherine the Great invited her German compatriots to emigrate to Russia in the 18th century. Between 1992 and 2002, around 1.5 million of these settlers’ descendants moved back to Germany, taking advantage of laws that allowed people of German ancestry to claim citizenship. German government research shows that this community votes more heavily for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party than other groups. It wants to tighten immigration controls and limit Islam’s influence in Germany.

Much, much, much more at the link!

Finally, a little Ukrainian cultural diplomacy. The Financial Times has the details on this soft power aikido:

While Russia’s war on Ukraine moves towards its second year, Ukrainian artists are taking the fight, symbolically, to Russian artistic turf. Ballet has long been a source of soft power for Moscow, with strategic foreign tours by state companies such as the Mariinsky and the Bolshoi even at the height of the cold war. This winter, the National Ballet of Ukraine reached Paris with a message of its own: Ukrainian culture isn’t going anywhere.

It delivered it with a quintessentially French ballet, the 19th-century classic Giselle, a tale of betrayed love that has become an unlikely beacon of peace. Last year, the United Ukrainian Ballet, a troupe made up mainly of dancers who fled the war, made its debut with Alexei Ratmansky’s version of the ballet.

The National Ballet of Ukraine, however, is the first state dance ensemble to make the journey abroad since the Russian invasion began. That it has continued to operate at all is mind-boggling. More than half of its dancers have left; some have died or fought on the frontline. Yet since May, performances have resumed in Kyiv, with sirens sometimes going off mid-show to direct audiences and artists to shelter. This week, even as 47 dancers are busy with Giselle in Paris, others are performing The Snow Queen at home every day.

Ballet dancers are used to hiding effort behind grace, yet under the circumstances there was something surreal about watching them pull together a very fine Giselle. At the Théâtre des Champs-Élysées, where the company is presented by Sarfati Productions, veteran principal Kateryna Alaieva delivered a Giselle without excess, finding real lightness and style in the second act. As Myrtha, Kateryna Kurchenko led the ghostly Wilis with airy brio, and the young Daria Manoilo brought a lively touch to her two soloist roles.

There were a few ragged moments in the first act but unstretched feet hardly matter in the midst of a war, and the 24-strong corps of Wilis had upper-body elegance and attitude to spare against Tetyana Bruni’s evocative backdrop. While a little too forceful at times, the mime is extremely clear in this production, which is credited to none other than Konstantin Sergeyev, a prominent choreographer and director of the Mariinsky (then Kirov) Ballet in Soviet times.

More at the link!

Your daily Patron!

Here is a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Зізнавайтесь, хто ще досі доїдає новорічні страви?😁

♬ Mouse eating sound – 1H2A’s🅿️

The caption machine translates as:

Admit it, who still finishes the New Year’s dishes?😁

I think we’re all in agreement that the first staff meeting of the year sucks.

Open thread!

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

I have just finished a conversation with the Prime Minister of Canada, and this is the fourth international conversation today. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister of Norway. And now Justin Trudeau.

We started this year with what Ukraine needs most right now – on the eve of new mobilization processes being prepared by the terrorist state. Now is the moment when together with our partners we must strengthen our defense.

We have no doubt that the current masters of Russia will throw everything they have left and everyone they can muster to try to turn the tide of the war and at least postpone their defeat.

We have to disrupt this Russian scenario. We are preparing for this. The terrorists must lose. Any attempt at their new offensive must fail. This will be the final defeat of the terrorist state. I thank all partners who understand this.

Russia mobilizes those whom it wants to throw to death, we mobilize the civilized world. For the sake of life.

I am grateful to Canada for its unwavering defense, sanction and financial support. Today we discussed with Prime Minister Trudeau how we can further increase pressure on Russia. I feel that Canadian assistance to our defense will remain strong this year.

I thank Norway for the very powerful decisions that have already been taken and that are still being prepared. This applies to armed support as well – Norway’s role can become truly historic in the defense of Europe if we implement everything we are talking about now. This also applies to the support of our energy system. In particular, I thank Norway for its readiness to help provide Ukraine with the necessary volume of gas for this winter.

I am grateful to the UK for the fully concrete agreements reached, first of all in the defense sphere. Today, in the conversation with Prime Minister Sunak, I felt that we equally perceive the importance of this year, the prospects of this year. The fact that it is possible to achieve a pivotal advantage right now, not allowing Russia to win back on this or that front direction.

I am grateful to the Netherlands for sharing with us the same understanding of justice, of how this war should end. Today I have informed Mr. Prime Minister Rutte on the nearest intentions of the enemy, on what Russia is preparing for the winter months and the beginning of spring. I am confident that Ukraine will be heard in Europe.

And every day I will continue such diplomatic activity – both formal and informal, both public and non-public.

This morning, I held a regular meeting of the Staff. A long one. There were reports from the Commander-in-Chief on the operational situation at the front, the head of intelligence – on what to expect from the enemy in the coming weeks and months. We determine the needs of Ukraine, our defense, our energy sector in great detail. And we are working to meet each of the needs, in particular with partners.

And one more thing.

Yesterday Russian terrorists destroyed the ice arena in Druzhkivka, Donetsk region. With a missile.

This ice arena – “Altair” – started working before the war, when Donbas had a normal life before Russia came. Children trained there. There was a children’s sports school. Hockey competitions were held there. People played sports there, celebrated and just enjoyed life. Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Kostyantynivka, Bakhmut, Pokrovsk, Donetsk, Toretsk and other cities and villages of Donbas – everyone knew what kind of arena it was, and many people visited it. Last year it was used to collect and distribute humanitarian aid.

The Russian missile against Altair in Druzhkivka is another confession of the terrorist state. It is a confession of what it came to Donbas with and what we will definitely oust from there. Death will not prevail in Donbas, and we must do everything to throw out its tricolor from Donbas and other lands of Ukraine.

I thank everyone who fights and works for our victory! 

I thank everyone who helps protect life!

Glory to Ukraine!

 

 

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kremenna, Bakhmut X2, and Izium:

KREMENNA AXIS /1515 UTC 3 JAN/ West of the P-66 HWY, RU forces have attempted to stage attacks at Ploschanka. Shelling continues along the line of contact, following heavy fighting near Dibrova on 1-2 JAN. FEBA assessed to be E of Dibrova. pic.twitter.com/salOqrtJdp

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 3, 2023

NOTE: This map and analysis are based on the briefings of the UKR Gen’l Staff on 2 JAN. Briefings for 3 JAN have not yet occurred. Reportage form other sources has not yet been confirmed. Updates will follow. And MANY THANKS to @commcen76 for base maps/topographic information.

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 3, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /2045 UTC 3 JAN/ RU forces whave staged an attack across the T-13-02 toward Krasna Hora. UKR troops were also reported in contact at Podhorodne and Bakhmutse. South of the H-32 HWY, RU forces continue attempts to register an advance in the western industrial area. pic.twitter.com/WpmJ6YSw8Q

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 3, 2023

IZIUM AXIS /1630 UTC 3 JAN/ RU has renewed a series attacks across the H-26 HWY NW of Svatove. The UKR Khartia Battalion is engaged heavily with 22nd Guard Spetsnaz Brigade in the vicinity of Kryvoshyivka. UKR UAV destroys RU ammo dump near Svatove. pic.twitter.com/UpSEtMgzQe

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 3, 2023

Here’s the video of the drone strike on the weapons depot in Russian occupied Luhansk:

🔥 💥 🔥 💥 🔥 💥
Video from the drone that wiped out the Russia 🇷🇺 weapons stockpile in occupied-Luhansk Oblast yesterday. pic.twitter.com/Sw9Yghtm4A

— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) January 3, 2023

The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko has a new piece up on just how much armor Russia may have left:

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is already going down in history as the biggest tank slaughter Europe has seen since World War II.

The Kremlin’s reckless and unsuccessful blitzkrieg on Kyiv resulted in the loss of over 1,000 tanks – within just a few weeks after Feb. 24.

By April, many battlefields in northern Ukraine had become tank cemeteries, with dozens of scorched machines eviscerated by Ukrainian anti-tank squads.

This is a heavy blow for Russia’s offensive component, even given its large military. Contrary to its propaganda, Russia’s infamously large stockpile of Soviet tanks is little more than a pile of scrap metal unfit to be used in battle.

However, we can not expect Russia to run critically low on tanks anytime soon.

Despite heavy losses, Russia still has enough machines to continue waging its war for years.

For Ukraine, this is yet another reason to do everything possible to avoid a protracted, multiyear war for which the Kremlin has many resources.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has demonstrated that all speculations on the end of the tank era have been somewhat premature.

Main battle tanks continue to serve their typical role: supporting the infantry, spearheading assaults, and exploiting breakthroughs, with mechanized infantry following them.

Driven by necessity, Ukraine’s military has expanded the role of tanks in combat. Due to a lack of field artillery, many Ukrainian crews practice indirect fire on targets out of the tank’s line of sight, howitzer-style.

Meanwhile, Russian forces still rely on tanks as a principal means of concentrated fire support, even during urban warfare.

Much more at the link!

Back in September, Marine veteran, doctoral candidate, and senior fellow at FPRI Rob Lee wrote a piece for War on the Rocks for why the tanks is not obsolete that dovetails nicely with Ponomarenko’s analysis:

After six months of war in Ukraine, some observers have insisted that “we are seeing the very nature of combat change” and that tanks, along with fighter jets and warships, “are being pushed into obsolescence.”

But it is too soon to write off the tank, and we should resist jumping to other sweeping conclusions about the future of warfare based on a conflict whose lessons are not yet clear. There is still much about this war that is not known from open sources, and there is good reason to think that the conditions that marked its early phases will not necessarily be relevant to future conflicts. As a result, specific weapon systems may appear to be ineffective based on how and where they are employed, not necessarily due to their inherent shortcomings.

The available data from Ukraine, as well as the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh, indicate that tanks are still critical in modern warfare and their vulnerabilities have been exaggerated. Russia’s heavy tank losses can be explained by employment mistakes, poor planning and preparation, insufficient infantry support, and Ukrainian artillery. The use of Javelins and other light anti-tank systems in Ukraine has not demonstrated that the tank is obsolete any more than the Sagger anti-tank guided missile did in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, as discussed by David Johnson in these pages.

Three key issues explain Russia’s tank losses: lack of warning and preparation, poor strategy that exacerbated logistics issues, and insufficient infantry to protect them. Tanks are among the most logistics-intensive pieces of equipment. They require routine maintenance, spare parts, and substantial fuel to keep them operational. Because of these requirements, logistics planning is more important for tank battalions and regiments than nearly any other type of military unit, but Russia’s disorganized invasion exacerbated these logistical challenges. Russia’s operation was marked by extreme efforts at compartmentalization and secrecy, with most soldiers finding out that they were going to war only a few hours before the invasion. As a result, commanders and logisticians were given insufficient warning to plan and prepare. Tank units did not have enough time to schedule proper maintenance or to procure sufficient spare parts, fuel, and other items necessary for a conventional war that would involve long-distance movements.

Moreover, Russia’s plan involved too many axes of advance, many of which were not mutually supporting, and Russian Ground Forces units were tasked with advancing at an extremely rapid rate. As a result, Russian forces often moved beyond artillery, electronic warfare, and air defense coverage, further exacerbating logistics issues. The rapid advance also meant that Russia had longer and more exposed supply lines, and its logistics convoys were not prepared to handle ambushes from territorial defense forces. It is not surprising that tank units performed comparatively poorly at the beginning of the war, since they require greater preparation and planning than lighter units.

Logistics problems were also evident in the type of tanks Russia lost at the beginning of the war. Most of Russia’s tank force is composed of T-72 or T-90 variants, which use diesel engines. However, Russia still has a large number of T-80 variants in service as well, often based in extremely cold regions where their gas turbine engines are easier to operate than diesel engines. A higher percentage of T-80 tanks were abandoned than T-72 or T-90 variants. Of the 85 T-80U-series tanks that Russia lost, according to Oryx’s data, 50 (59 percent) were abandoned or captured. Of the 34 T-80BVM tanks that were lost, 19 (56 percent) were abandoned or captured. Compared to the more numerous T-72 and T-90 tanks in Russian service, T-80 tanks have higher fuel consumption and use a different type of fuel. The higher percentage of T-80 losses suggests that fuel was a critical factor in their abandonment or capture.

Of the tanks that were damaged or destroyed, many of them were lost because Russia’s initial invasion was not conducted as a combined-arms operation, and it lacked sufficient infantry to support its tank units. This is another reason why Russia lost so many tanks during the first few weeks but far fewer after the first phase. More than half of the Russian tank losses recorded by Oryx occurred in the first 50 days of the war, which is also when the first articles were being published questioning the value of tanks. One of the well-known weaknesses of tanks is that they require infantry to protect them from opposing infantry forces with anti-tank weapons, particularly in urban terrain. Russia chose to reduce the strength of motorized rifle battalions on BMP Infantry Fighting Vehicles from 460 to 345 servicemen, and many of the battalions that invaded Ukraine were only at two-thirds to three-quarters strength. In practice, this meant that Russian motorized rifle units lacked sufficient dismounts for fighting in urban terrain. Russia also chose to reduce the motorized rifle battalion in each tank regiment to a single company, which was clearly insufficient to support the two battalion tactical groups that each tank regiment should be able to generate. Thus, it is no surprise that Ukraine had success in targeting Russian tanks with anti-tank teams. With sufficient infantry support and unmanned systems and ground reconnaissance to locate anti-tank teams, Russia’s tank fleet would have fared much better.

Despite their effectiveness, modern anti-tank guided missiles were not the primary killers of Russian tanks. According to an adviser to Ukraine’s most senior military officer: “[A]nti-tank missiles slowed the Russians down [during the advance towards Kyiv], but what killed them was our artillery. That was what broke their units.” Indeed, countless videos posted by the Ukrainian military have confirmed this, including those showing the ill-fated offensive by Russia’s 6th Tank Regiment in Brovary in mid-March. In addition to artillery, many Russian tanks were destroyed or disabled by Soviet-era systems, such as TM-62 anti-tank mines. Javelins, next generation light anti-tank weapons, and Ukrainian-made Stugna-P anti-tank systems have been effective, but they are just one component of Ukraine’s anti-tank efforts. Indeed, they likely destroyed a relatively smaller share of Russia’s tanks during its offensive in the Donbas, where Russia conducted a more coherent combined-arms operation. It is also important to note that public sources may not provide a representative view of how Russian tanks were damaged. Russian tanks struck by Stugna-P or Javelins are much more likely to be filmed and uploaded to social media than tanks damaged by mines, which may not be recorded as frequently. Of course, artillery battalions are not cheap, so the available evidence regarding tank losses in Ukraine does not particularly support the argument that we are seeing a “swing in favor of smaller and cheaper defensive weapons.” Ukraine has also suffered heavy tank losses, losing 244 tanks as documented by Oryx, of which 128 were destroyed. It does not appear most of these losses were from anti-tank guided missiles either.

For all these reasons, we should be cautious about drawing broader lessons from the performance of Russian tanks and other weapons during February and March. There is little risk that NATO militaries, or even China, would ever launch an offensive war without conducting a combined-arms operation. If anything, the early stages of the war simply confirm key components of U.S. military doctrine such as unity of command, mass, decentralized execution, combined arms, mission-type orders, and proper preparation.

Much, much more at the link!

Here’s something else from Illia Ponomarenko:

Hey!
Please make sure to check this documentary when you have time. The story follows a unique rescue mission carried out by the Ukrainian military during the Battle of Izium.
The film’s creators are also fundraising to buy UAVs.https://t.co/3TxvPp88DG

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 3, 2023

 

Here’s the description posted under the video:

Dec 22, 2022

This is the most suspenseful documentary film you’ve ever seen. It was made in 2022 by famous Ukrainian director Lubomir Levitski, tells about the unique rescue operation with drones which was carried out by the Ukrainian military during the brutal battles near Izyum. Real participants of that operation speak their story to the camera, so that the whole world would learn about the incredible feat and creative approach of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in rescuing civilians. The real footage taken by drones during this operation was handed over to Lubomir by the military of the 93rd Brigade “Holodny Yar”. Thirty minutes of intense real-time rescue operation is impossible to forget. The director managed to combine documentary with an incredibly interesting artistic approach in telling this story. E

VERY DONATION IS A NEW PURCHASED DRONE. EVERY NEW DRONE IS ANOTHER SAVED LIFE.

Details for your voluntary donation are below: https://glory.foundation/en/bank-deta…

We have another update for you weather aficionados. This one from the BBC:

Temperatures for January have reached an all-time high in a number of nations across Europe.

National records have fallen in eight countries – and regional records in another three.

Warsaw, Poland, saw 18.9C (66F) on Sunday while Bilbao, Spain, was 25.1C – more than 10C above average.

The mild European weather comes as North America faces more severe storms, days after a deadly winter cold snap left more than 60 dead.

Heavy snow and freezing rain have been forecast for parts of the northern Midwest while severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are expected in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana.

But on the European side of the Atlantic, the weather has been balmy for many places at the start of the year.

Temperatures in the Netherlands, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Poland, Denmark and Belarus broke national records.

Station records were broken in Germany, France and Ukraine.

The temperature recorded in Warsaw on 1 January was 4C higher than the previous record for the month, and Belarus’ record high was 16.4C, some 4.5C above the previous record.

In Spain, New Year’s Day temperatures in Bilbao were equivalent to the average in July, and parts of Catalonia including Barcelona are subject to restrictions on water use.

Records are broken all the time, but it is unusual for the difference to be more than a few 10ths of a degree.

In Switzerland, temperatures hit 20C, and the warm weather has affected ski resorts across the Alps which have seen a snow shortage.

It’s not all warm in Europe, though – colder temperatures and snow are forecast in parts of Scandinavia and Moscow is expected to drop to -20C by the weekend.

Obligatory!

 

We try not to judge…

Much more at the link.

This is important because it strikes a major blow to Putin’s strategy to use restrictions on natural gas supply to influence the EU states, including the NATO states in Europe, to stop supporting Ukraine or risk freezing to death because they cannot afford to source natural gas to keep the heat on.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

З запізненням викладаю свій 2022 у 60 фото 🫶🏻

♬ son original – justanunknownstar

The caption machine translates as:

Belatedly posting my 2022 in 60 photos

Open thread!

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

Only two days have passed since the beginning of the year, and the number of Iranian drones shot down over Ukraine is already more than eighty. This number may increase in the near future. Because these weeks the nights can be quite restless.

We have information that Russia is planning a prolonged attack with “Shaheds”. Its bet may be on exhaustion. On exhaustion of our people, our air defense, our energy sector.

But we must ensure – and we will do everything for this – that this goal of terrorists fails like all the others.

Today, I would like to mention the Air Commands “Center”, “South” and “East” for the successful protection of the sky these days. And especially – the warriors of the 96th Kyiv, 208th Kherson and 138th Dnipro anti-aircraft missile brigades, the 301st Nikopol anti-aircraft missile regiment of the Air Forces, as well as the warriors of the 39th anti-aircraft missile regiment of the Ground Forces.

Of course, I am grateful to our pilots, the pilots of our fighters and warriors of mobile firing groups.

Now is the time when everyone involved in the protection of the sky should be especially attentive.

The Russian regime needs mobilizing emotions. Something that they want to demonstrate to their country in order to continue lying that everything is going “according to the plan”. And our task is to give Ukraine every day successes, achievements, even small, yet victories over terrorists and terror. Each shot down drone, each shot down missile, each day with electricity for our people and minimal schedules of blackouts are exactly such victories.

And every step forward of our servicemen at the front, every saved position is such successes that are of strategic importance now.

We must increase the price of new mobilization and war in general for the terrorist state as much as possible. I am grateful to every warrior of ours who ensures this!

I am grateful to everyone who stands near Bakhmut! I am grateful to everyone who despite everything holds positions in Soledar and other areas!

Thank you for the Luhansk region, for the south!

No matter how difficult it is now, we must endure it. For it to be easier at the end of this winter.

Today I spoke with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. I am glad that the first international conversation in the new year was held with the head of the European Commission.

We equally understand the challenges of this winter, this year for Ukraine and the whole of Europe. We have discussed financial support for our state – in January, we expect the first tranche of macro-financial aid, as was agreed upon last year.

This is extremely important right now, when Russia is trying to gather new forces for aggression.

We have also discussed the preparation of the Ukraine-EU Summit to be held in early February. I believe that at this summit, we will be able to outline the key new steps for this year for our common resilience, for our common victory.

Today, I held a special preparatory meeting with members of the NSDC and representatives of the Cabinet of Ministers, the Verkhovna Rada and the Office on global trends for Ukraine this year and in the future. I instructed to elaborate draft decisions of the NSDC for the internal transformation of our state to continue and for us to ensure security and leadership of Ukraine under any external conditions.

I am grateful to everyone who will be on duty at combat posts tonight! 

I am grateful to all who are fighting for our native Ukraine!

I am grateful to everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is Major General Budanov’s take on the strikes on the Engels airbase in Russia:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kremenna:

KREMENNA AXIS /2340 UTC 2 JAN/ Heavy fighting is reported around the village of Dibrova. As UKR forces advanced, RU conducted fixed and rotary aviation strike missions west of Kremenna on 1 & 2 JAN. UKR units are also reported in contact N of Bilohorivka. pic.twitter.com/AepSXnpP2j

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 2, 2023

 

To reapply Abba Eban’s famous quote regarding the Palestinians, the Israelis never miss an opportunity to miss an oppurtunity:

2 In his speech Cohen hinted that unlike his predecessor Yair Lapid he will not condemn Russia publicly. “On the issue of Russia and Ukraine we will do on thing for sure – speak less in public”

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) January 2, 2023

4 Why it matters: Cohen’s predecessor Yair Lapid led a tough line Russia, condemned it publicly & even said the Russian military committed war crimes. Since the invasion Lapid didn’t speak to Lavrov & after he assumed office as caretaker prime minister he didn’t speak to Putin

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) January 2, 2023

 

Don’t make vodka at home in the bathtub from whatever you’ve got lying around!

Mother of metal. https://t.co/sy1l7NaFw1

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 2, 2023

Also, whoever got into my storage pod, stole my table cloth, and made it into a dress has some explaining to do!

The Financial Times editorial board gets it right!

Ukraine’s battlefield successes do not mean its allies can ease up on support. There are signs Moscow plans a new offensive. Even if that does not materialise, a festering stalemate could play into Putin’s hands. For him, long-term destabilisation of Ukraine is a win.

Nor is this the time to entertain the idea of ceasefires or negotiation. With Russia still in control of much of the four regions it “annexed” in October, plus Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas seized in 2014, the conditions are not right for Kyiv to come to the table.

Ukraine’s allies should instead do everything possible to ensure it can repel any renewed onslaught, and regain more territory. The aim is to put Kyiv in a position where it feels able to negotiate, with the strongest possible hand. That means budget support and accelerated financial help with repairing infrastructure.

It also means more sophisticated defensive weapons, such as the Patriot missile defence system now approved by Washington, and offensive arms. Ukraine needs longer-range missiles, helicopters and tanks. The US and others have balked at supplying such weapons for fear they could be used to hit targets inside Russia, potentially triggering a Nato-Russia conflict, or in an effort to retake Crimea that Putin has hinted might provoke a nuclear stand-off.

It is fair for Washington to agree privately with Kyiv on rules of engagement for weapons it provides. But the objective should be to push Russia back at least to pre-February 24 lines. Retaking southern regions would put Kyiv in striking range of Crimea, giving it a robust negotiating stance. Ukraine’s people were in 2022 an example to the world of fortitude and resilience. They deserve redoubled support in 2023.

Much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

The beginning of the year is a great time to study. I always learn something new. And you? What did you do today? ☺️ pic.twitter.com/13TZpjK0zq

— Patron (@PatronDsns) January 2, 2023

There is no new video tonight from Patron’s official TikTok.

Open thread!

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

New year, new day, new summaries. 45 “Shaheds” were shot down on the first night of the year.

I thank our Air Forces – pilots, anti-aircraft warriors. 33 “Shaheds” are on their account. Gratitude to the air defense of our Ground Forces for another 12 downed Iranian drones. Well done, guys!

Russian terrorists were pathetic, and they entered this year staying the same. Our defenders were awesome, and on January 1 they showed themselves very well.

You know, these days it was clearly seen how far we have moved away, mentally, humanly from what Russia is “boiling” in. Our sense of unity, authenticity, life itself – all this contrasts dramatically with the fear that prevails in Russia.

They are afraid. You can feel it. And they are right to be afraid. Because they are losing. Drones, missiles, anything else will not help them. Because we are together. And they are together only with fear.

And they will not take away a single year from Ukraine, they will not take away our independence. We will not give them anything.

I thank everyone who is fighting the enemy at the frontline every day and every night! We respond to every Russian strike at Kherson, Nikopol, Kharkiv region, all our cities and communities. It is very tangible for them.

I am grateful to all our energy workers, utility workers for stable energy supply and a minimum of outages – taking into account all the existing circumstances. Wherever transmission lines and other energy facilities are damaged by shelling, the restoration continues around the clock. Today as well.

And it is very important how all Ukrainians recharged their inner energy this New Year’s Eve.

And how we thanked our warriors. How we thanked our loved ones. How millions of times all over Ukraine, all over the free world, our wish – the wish of victory – has sounded and still sounds.

We will do everything to make it so!

Glory to all our warriors!

Glory to each and everyone who works for the victory of Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Instead of New Year's fireworks. russia launched 45 Iranian-made kamikaze drones at Ukraine throughout New Year's Eve.
All 45 of them were shot down.
The kremlin terrorist cannot waver the determination of Ukrainians.
2023 is the year of new victories.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 1, 2023

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut and Izium:

BAKHMUT /1620 UTC 1 JAN/ RU has temporarily throttled back operations near Bakhmut. UKR forces drove away RU attacks at Bakhmutse, Podhorodne and east of the O-0507 cut-off in the industrial area. Early reports suggest Kurdiumivka has been liberated. pic.twitter.com/IUYuWrcj69

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 1, 2023

IZIUM AXIS/ 0145 UTC 01 JAN/ RU has apparently discontinued an unsuccessful series attacks across the H-26 HWY north of Svatove. UKR forces repelled a RU assault at Ploshchanka. UKR reports that Russia suffered 760 troops Killed in Action (KIA) during the period 31 DEC- 1 JAN. pic.twitter.com/Pl5JaNZYAY

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 2, 2023

Speaking of Bakhmut:

7-year-old Stas from #Bakhmut to 🇺🇦defenders:"All these days I was praying&waiting for evacuation".
His family is now safe in Western #Ukraine. It's hard to imagine what this boy has gone through. His town has become a real hell.
🇺🇦heroes bravely fight against #russian terrorists pic.twitter.com/1jlmtZtB5n

— Emine Dzheppar (@EmineDzheppar) December 30, 2022

Here’s an in depth interview of First Lady Zelenska:

The description machine translates as:

The First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska talked about the directions of her activities in 2022 in the conditions of Russian aggression against Ukraine. In an interview with Vadym Karpiak on the telethon “Edyni Novyni”, the wife of the President emphasized that the duties of the first ladies, especially during the war, are not regulated, so she had to decide for herself what is a priority for the country and where she will be able to bring the greatest benefit. Therefore, her work was concentrated in several directions.

It’s HIMARS O’Clock!

Surprise! pic.twitter.com/R0gSLvm2LN

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 1, 2023

Also, obligatory:

For you weather afficionados:

Having +12 degrees Celsius in Bucha on New Year’s Day is a bit weird

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 1, 2023

You know who you are… And so do the rest of us because right now this is you:

Carlo Graziano passed this op-ed by Nigel Gould-Davis, Phd; Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies published in The New York Times. Here’s some excerpts:

“What are Putin’s red lines?”

This question, asked with growing urgency as Russia loses its war in Ukraine but does not relent in its aggressions, is intended to offer analytical clarity and to guide policy. In reality, it is the wrong question, because “red line” is a bad metaphor. Red lines are red herrings. There are better ways to think about strategy.

“Red lines” implies there are defined limits to the actions that a state — in this case, Russia — is prepared to accept from others. If the West transgresses these limits, Russia will respond in new and more dangerous ways. A red line is a tripwire for escalation. Western diplomacy must seek to understand and “respect” Russia’s red lines by avoiding actions that would cross them. Russia’s red lines thus impose limits on Western actions.

There are three flaws to this reasoning. First, it assumes that red lines are fixed features of a state’s foreign policy. This is almost never the case. What states say, and even believe, that they would not accept can change radically and quickly.

In truth, red lines are nearly always soft, variable and contingent — not etched in geopolitical stone. While national interests, as Henry Temple, Viscount Palmerston, said, may be eternal, the way they manifest themselves as specific commitments will reflect temporary, shifting circumstances — among them, relative power, perceptions of threat, domestic calculations and wider global trends.

The second flaw of “red line” orthodoxy is that, in fixating on a state’s escalatory response, it considers only the risks and dilemmas this would impose on an adversary, and not those that the escalating state itself faces. For escalation means acting in ways that are more dangerous for everyone, and that had previously been judged too risky to contemplate. Such a decision must take into account the likely costs as well as benefits. Escalation is a choice, not a tripwire — one an adversary can deter by credibly conveying the costs this would incur.

The third flaw is that preoccupation with red lines invites deception. A state will seek to manipulate an adversary’s desire to restrain itself by enlarging the range of interests it claims are “fundamental” and actions it considers “unacceptable.” Fear of escalation thus encourages an escalation of bluff.

Exposing these flaws can help craft better policy. Concerns about Russia’s “red lines” are driven above all by the fear that Russia might resort to nuclear escalation. The West should avert this by deterring Russia rather than by restraining itself — or pressuring Ukraine to do so — for fear of “provoking” Russia. It can do so by communicating the certainty of severe consequences should Russia use nuclear weapons. Russia has tried and failed to impose red lines with nuclear threats several times since the war began — most recently in November, when Ukrainian forces liberated Kherson just six weeks after Vladimir Putin had declared it part of Russia. Ukraine and the West rightly rejected these bluffs, and should continue to do so.

But to apply the special case of negotiation — with few parameters and a narrow range of outcomes — to a complex, fluid and much wider geopolitical rivalry is a category error. While the danger of Russian nuclear escalation may rise and should be studied carefully, there is no special, separate category of actions that the West or Ukraine might take that would automatically trigger it. Russia has no red lines: It only has, at each moment, a range of options and perceptions of their relative risks and benefits. The West should continually aim, through its diplomacy, to shape these perceptions so that Russia chooses the options that the West prefers.

America should focus on three things. First, it should no longer declare that there are measures it will refrain from taking, and weapons systems it will not provide, to support Ukraine. To signal unilateral restraint is to make an unforced concession. Worse, it emboldens Russia to probe for, and try to impose, further limits on U.S. action — making the war more, not less, risky.

Second, America, with its partners, must make clear that time is working against Russia — not in its favor, as Mr. Putin still believes. The West should demonstrate readiness to mobilize, and quickly, its huge economic superiority to enable Ukraine to defeat Russia and to impose further severe sanctions. The military and economic costs to Russia will drain its far more limited resources and place greater strains on the regime.

Third, the West should make clear to a wide range of Russian audiences that it is safe to end the war by leaving Ukraine. An orderly withdrawal is unlikely to lead to regime change, let alone the breakup of Russia. Neither outcome is an official goal of Western policy, and talk of them is unhelpful and even counterproductive. Some in the West will resist the idea of any such reassurance. But if Russia’s elites conclude that it is as dangerous for Russia to leave Ukraine as to stay, they have no incentive to press for an end to the war. Reassurance does not mean compromise.

Much, much more at the link. I want to compare Dr. Gould-Davis’s analysis with this reporting from The New York Times that we covered in the update on 17 DEC 2022:

People who know Mr. Putin say he is ready to sacrifice untold lives and treasure for as long as it takes, and in a rare face-to-face meeting with the Americans last month the Russians wanted to deliver a stark message to President Biden: No matter how many Russian soldiers are killed or wounded on the battlefield, Russia will not give up.

Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, blames the West, and the weapons it has given Ukraine, for Russia’s unexpected difficulties in the war.

“This is a big burden for us,” Mr. Peskov said, depicting Russia as taking on all of NATO’s military might in Ukraine. “It was just very hard to believe in such cynicism and in such bloodthirstiness on the part of the collective West.”

To Mr. Putin, Ukraine is an artificial nation, used by the West to weaken Russia. He describes it as a cradle of Russian culture, a centerpiece of Russian identity that must be wrested back from the West and returned to Russia’s orbit.

In his eyes, that is the biggest unfinished mission of his 22 years in power, people who know him say.

There’s nothing to negotiate here and no one to really negotiate with. As long as Putin remains in control of Russia he will spend an unlimited amount of money and lives to achieve his goal: taking Ukraine. It is important to remember the flip side of this, which I’ve been stating repeatedly since the re-invasion began: if Putin cannot have Ukraine than no one else gets to have it either. And that includes the Ukrainians. The strategic reality is that Putin is going to do what Putin is going to do regardless of what we do, what our EU and NATO allies do, regardless of what our non-EU and non-NATO allies do, and regardless of what the Ukrainians do. Right now what we’re willing to do is the result of our constraining ourselves due to an exceedingly limited appetite for assuming risk. Our self imposed limitations and the fear we’ve created for ourselves is a gift to Putin that prolongs the war and actually increases his chances of achieving his objectives.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new tweets or videos from Patron, so I’m reposting last nights:

Happy New Year! Happy Victory Year. Glory to Ukraine! Thank you, all Ukrainian friends ❤️🎊 pic.twitter.com/s6O15dH0MK

— Patron (@PatronDsns) December 31, 2022

@patron__dsns

Усім новорічний лизь, мої любі!🎄✨

♬ оригінальний звук – uaculture

The caption (still) machine translates as:

Happy New Year to everyone, my dears!🎄✨

Open thread!