With the news that broke today with the release of the detention memo for Alexander Smirnov, I’m going to do something a bit different. Once we get past the jump I’m going to walk you through the heart of Russia’s political warfare campaign against the US, the EU, NATO, and other of their allies and partners.
First, however, today is Heavenly Hundred Heroes Day in Ukraine:
Today, Ukraine marks the Day of Remembrance of the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred.
10 years since we learnt that freedom is not free.
10 years of our struggle for freedom and the right to self-determination.
But we stood firm 10 years ago and continue to do so today.We will… pic.twitter.com/JG2ltAbSgj
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 20, 2024
Today, Ukraine marks the Day of Remembrance of the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred.
10 years since we learnt that freedom is not free.
10 years of our struggle for freedom and the right to self-determination.
But we stood firm 10 years ago and continue to do so today.We will never forget the feat of the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred.
We will win in this war for our independence.
It is also the anniversary of Russia’s infiltration of its Little Green Men into Crimea to subvert Ukrainian sovereignty and control over Crimea.
10 years ago, russia's aggression against Ukraine began.
On February 20, 2014, russian troops started an operation to seize Crimea. "Little green men" appeared on our land.Our struggle has been going on for 10 years.
We know that Ukraine will win and aggressor will pay for… pic.twitter.com/tj1b08Ii3h— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 20, 2024
10 years ago, russia’s aggression against Ukraine began.
On February 20, 2014, russian troops started an operation to seize Crimea. “Little green men” appeared on our land.Our struggle has been going on for 10 years.
We know that Ukraine will win and aggressor will pay for their crimes.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Address by the President of Ukraine on the Heavenly Hundred Heroes Day
20 February 2024 – 10:44
The youngest of them, Nazariy Voitovych, was 17. The oldest, Ivan Nakonechnyi, was 82. All of them together are a symbol of how different people from different regions of Ukraine selflessly and courageously defend common values. They all gave their lives for independence. All of them together are the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred.
Today, Ukraine honors the memory of their feat. The memory of how Ukrainians can fight for their freedom. In the squares, on the barricades, and today – at the front. The memory that in the most difficult moments of history we never give up. We stand for each other, for the sake of each other. The memory that the unity of Ukrainians has no enemy capable of defeating it. That the selflessness of Ukrainians knows no bounds and makes history. The memory that ten years ago Ukrainians decided once and for all that we want and will live only in a European state. The memory we cherish and will preserve. The memory we honor today not just in words, the courage we multiply today on the battlefield, in the ongoing struggle, in the war that continues today, in the unity we have not lost and which shows us the way now. The path of common values. Equality. Dignity. Respect. The path of our country to the European family. And, of course, the most important value – Ukraine’s independence. All this was an incentive for the people to fight ten years ago.
All this is an incentive for us today. To defend our land. To defend our freedom. To defend our tomorrow. To defend our Ukraine.
Glory to all those who are now fighting for it!
May the memory of all those who gave their lives for it be blessed!
Eternal honor to the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred!
Glory to Ukraine!
Sweden:
Sweden announced the largest military aid package for Ukraine, worth 7,1 billion SEK (~$683 mln).
The 15th package includes:
◾️Artillery ammunition
◾️10 CB 90 combat boats
◾️RBS70 air defense systems
◾️Anti-tank missiles (TOW)
◾️20 group boats
◾️Underwater weapons
◾️Hand grenades… pic.twitter.com/fMg8rz594R— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 20, 2024
Sweden announced the largest military aid package for Ukraine, worth 7,1 billion SEK (~$683 mln).
The 15th package includes:
◾️Artillery ammunition
◾️10 CB 90 combat boats
◾️RBS70 air defense systems
◾️Anti-tank missiles (TOW)
◾️20 group boats
◾️Underwater weapons
◾️Hand grenades
◾️Carl Gustaf grenade launchersThis aid package will add ~1 billion SEK to the Swedish-Danish joint procurement of CV 90s to Ukraine, as well as medical supplies and economic aid to funds for the procurement of more weapons to Ukraine.
Sweden also joined the maritime coalition within the #UDCG.
We are grateful to our Swedish partners for their unwavering support. We appreciate your vital contribution to the security of the free world.
War is “the continuation of policy with other means” (mit anderen Mitteln).
— James R. Holmes, “Everything You Know About Clausewitz Is Wrong,” The Diplomat, 12 NOV 2014
Earlier today the detention memo for Alexander Smirnov was released and it contained some very important details.
First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
JUST IN: Alexander Smirnov told the feds during an interview after is arrest that "officials associated with Russian intelligence" were involved in passing a story about Hunter Biden. pic.twitter.com/3iOGQtZNAJ
— Alan Feuer (@alanfeuer) February 20, 2024
Smirnov also reported to the feds having contacts w/some pretty shady Russians including one connected to what seems like an assassination crew and an intel guy.This detention memo for Alexander Smirnov is pretty wild
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…Prosecutors seek to detain Smirnov saying:The “misinformation he is spreading is not confined to 2020. He is actively peddling new lies that could impact US elections after meeting with Russian intelligence officials in November.”
Smirnov told his FBI handler that the Russians had intercepted several phone calls from “prominent US persons” that could be used as “kompromat” in the 2024 election.It’s remarkable that prosecutors quote what appear to be FD-1023s in their detention memo. Those docs, detailing interviews w/informants, are highly sensitive govt investigative records.
The fact that they’re in this public filing means that USG is burning Smirnov to the ground.As @emptywheel notes here, this Smirnov detention memo reveals investigative details WAAAAY beyond what is necessary to keep him in custody.
It has the feeling of a scorched earth incineration of this guy and his contacts.
Here’s the missing bits of Marcy Wheeler’s tweet that got eaten by the Thread Reader App:
There's a part of me that has been considering whether the ENTIRE Hunter Biden prosecution was a honey pot for this shit.
Should be. Is not, IMO. pic.twitter.com/5BZZkG0S18
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) February 21, 2024
You’ll recall that I extensively covered the attempt of Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s impeachment defense counsel, Senator Johnson (R-WI), and Senator Grassley (R-IA) to use Trump’s first impeachment defense in the US Senate to launder Russian disinfo, misinfo, and agitprop into the Senate record and thereby wash it, making it clean to use by conservative media and pundits. Because it couldn’t be fake or made up or altered if it was in the Senate record, right? This is also why Giuliani tried to give the FBI agents that seized his electronic devices pursuant to a warrant the alleged Hunter Biden hard drives. This was Giuliani’s attempt to further launder these into evidence and to provide a reason to challenge the warrant, which didn’t cover these two hard drives. I also covered how I think the entire Hunter Biden laptop scheme and scam went down. From how they got access to emails they could doctor and mingle with completely false information and just how amateurishly bad all of the material that Eugene Mile Guo posted on his “news” site. In last Sunday night’s update I also covered the extent of Russia’s political and information warfare against the US, EU member states, and NATO members. From The Washington Post:
When news first emerged last month that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was preparing to fire his top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, officials in Moscow seemed jubilant. They had been trying to orchestrate just such a split for many months, documents show.
“We need to strengthen the conflict between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, along the lines of ‘he intends to fire him,’” one Kremlin political strategist wrote a year ago, after a meeting of senior Russian officials and Moscow spin doctors, according to internal Kremlin documents.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration ordered a group of Russian political strategists to use social media and fake news articles to push the theme that Zelensky “is hysterical and weak. … He fears that he will be pushed aside, therefore he is getting rid of the dangerous ones.”
The Kremlin instruction resulted in thousands of social media posts and hundreds of fabricated articles, created by troll farms and circulated in Ukraine and across Europe, that tried to exploit what were then rumored tensions between the two Ukrainian leaders, according to a trove of Kremlin documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post. The files, numbering more than 100 documents, were shared with The Post to expose for the first time the scale of Kremlin propaganda targeting Zelensky with the aim of dividing and destabilizing Ukrainian society — efforts that Moscow dubbed “information psychological operations.”
At a Jan. 16, 2023, meeting, Kiriyenko laid out four key objectives for the Ukraine propaganda team: discrediting Kyiv’s military and political leadership, splitting the Ukrainian elite, demoralizing Ukrainian troops and disorienting the Ukrainian population, the documents show.
The team’s success was to be measured according to key indicators: They were to “lower the ratings of key personnel in Zelensky’s office, the Ukrainian government, and the command of Ukraine’s armed forces,” and increase the belief among the Ukrainian population that the country’s elite was working only for itself. “A growth in the number of government dismissals and public conflicts” would also be a sign of achievement. To increase fear and anxiety, Ukrainian war losses were to be exaggerated, the documents state.
The strategists advised developing “a network of Telegram channels in combination with Twitter and Facebook/Instagram” as the most effective way of penetrating Ukraine’s media space, noting that the Telegram audience in Ukraine had grown 600 percent over the previous year. After the invasion, Zelensky’s government had created a single source of television news, but Ukrainians had drifted away from the programming, saying Ukraine’s military struggles were not sufficiently reported or discussed.
“Telegram became the most important source of news, even more important than mainstream media,” the senior European security official said. “It’s impossible to block it.”
The Moscow strategists emphasized the need to avoid blatant pro-Russian propaganda to build trust with the audience. “It’s clear that we can’t fly with our old resources,” one of the strategists wrote on April 5 after a Kremlin meeting.
One of the strategists’ aims, European security officials said, was to ensure that the themes placed in European social media filtered back into Ukraine, through reposts and amplification,or by being picked up by Ukrainian politicians keen to boost their profiles with provocative posts.
“They look for weak spots. … They use what they create themselves and whatever is lying under their feet,” a secondEuropean security officials said. “Everything is aimed at demoralizing people.”
You all have seen me refer to my professional forebear, Bernard Fall, before. Specifically his The Theory and Practice of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency. This 1965 essay started as a keynote address at the Naval War College (NWC) in 1964. In it Fall explains what subversion is and how it is undertaken: (emphasis mine)
Let me state this definition: RW = G + P, or, “revolutionary warfare equals guerrilla warfare plus political action.” This formula for revolutionary warfare is the result of the application of guerrilla methods to the furtherance of an ideology or a political system. This is the real difference between partisan warfare, guerrilla warfare, and everything else. “Guerrilla” simply means “small war,” to which the correct Army answer is (and that applies to all Western armies) that everybody knows how to fight small wars; no second lieutenant of the infantry ever learns anything else but how to fight small wars. Political action, however, is the difference. The communists, or shall we say, any sound revolutionary warfare operator (the French underground, the Norwegian underground, or any other European anti-Nazi underground) most of the time used smallwar tactics—not to destroy the German army, of which they were thoroughly incapable, but to establish a competitive system of control over the population. Of course, in order to do this, here and there they had to kill some of the occupying forces and attack some of the military targets. But above all they had to kill their own people who collaborated with the enemy.
But the “kill” aspect, the military aspect, definitely always remained the minor aspect. The political, administrative, ideological aspect is the primary aspect.Everybody, of course, by definition, will seek a military solution to the insurgency problem, whereas by its very nature, the insurgency problem is military only in a secondary sense, and political, ideological, and administrative in a primary sense. Once we understand this, we will understand more of what is actually going on in Vietnam or in some of the other places affected by RW.
I have emphasized that the straight military aspects, or the conventional military aspects of insurgency, are not the most important. Tax collections have nothing to do with helicopters. Village chiefs have nothing to do with M-113s [armored personnel carriers] except in the most remote sense, nor with the aerial bombardment of North Vietnam. What we are faced with precisely is a communist, military-backed operation to take over a country under our feet. I would like to put it in even a simpler way: When a country is being subverted it is not beingoutfought; it is being out-administered. Subversion is literally administration with a minus sign in front. This is what I feel has to be clearly understood. Whether it is the Congo, Vietnam, or Venezuela is totally irrelevant. Whether we have the “body count,” the “kill count,” the “structure count,” or the “weapons count”— these are almost meaningless considerations in an insurgency situation. We can lose weapons and still win the insurgency. On the other hand, we can win the war and lose the country.
Putin and Russia’s major lines of effort against Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, Moldova, the EU member states, Britain with Brexit, the US, other NATO members like Canada has primarily the non-lethal political warfare intended to subvert state, society, economy, and religion. It is only when the political warfare has failed that Putin has gone kinetic: Georgia in 2008, Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, Ukraine in 2014 through 2022 and then all of Ukraine beginning in FEB 2022. The infiltration of Little Green Men is just one of those lines of effort. The others were supporting Yanukovych, leveraging Ukrainian military and security leaders who’d come up through the Soviet and Russian professional military education system, and leveraging the oligarchs to control the economy.
Subversion or out administering with the targeted state means to identify the elites, notables, and key governmental, security, military, economic, and cultural institutions to target in or to identify potential allies that can provide access. Once that is done their is a four part process, which each portion reinforcing the others. First, target within the information domain to positively affect attitudes towards the allies/client while driving down the attitudes towards enemies and opponents. Second, secure access to High Value Individuals, and different key sectors of the economy. Third, gain control of the military and security services, usually through train, advise, and assist agreements. Fourth, promote cultural initiatives. This is actually what Prigozhin was doing for Putin via GRU contracts in Syria, Libya, and other parts of Africa.
What we see in the Smirnov detention memo are pieces of the Russian subversion process. The receipt of the misinformation and agitprop about Hunter Biden, which is intended to negatively affect attitudes towards President Biden. The attempt to launder it through elites and notables, specifically US Senators and more recently Congressmen Comer and Jordan to wash it clean and make it legit and usable by the news media to further drive down attitudes towards President Biden. You’ve also got the collection of compromising material – kompromat – on key political actors in order to use it as necessary in the 2024 campaign.
But what, you ask, about gaining control of the military and security services? That was where Mike Flynn and his paid trip to the RT anniversary, as well as his being the first Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency to visit the GRU comes in. It obviously failed, but he was all gung ho for setting up more engagements and exchanges between US intelligence and Russian intelligence. It is also the idea Putin pitched to Trump at their bilateral summit about setting up a joint US-Russia cyber command. Fortunately none of this happened, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.
All the Russian disinfo, misinfo, and agitprop, both overt and covert, on social media is an attempt to establish the conditions to subvert the US. The courting of Musk, who is already in a semi-controlled relationship in regard to Putin given his Tesla business interests in Russia, are also part of the subversion campaign. It is exceedingly coincidental that Musk once again went on a freak out about the need for Ukraine to capitulate to Russia at the same time that Congressman Turner, the chair of the House Permanent Select Committee leaked that we had information collected via section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that Russia was going to do something that threatened the US. And that something turns out to be fielding a space based anti-satellite weapons platform, which could be used to bring down Musk’s Starlink satellites. This amount of coincidence takes a lot of planning.
I think that’s enough deep thoughts for tonight.
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War for Ukraine Day 727: It’s Called SubversionPost + Comments (66)