It is very important that our people are not left alone with pain and problems after Russian strikes – address by the President of Ukraine

13 March 2024 – 22:30

Dear Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

Reports from the regions of our country on the elimination of the consequences of Russian strikes and on providing assistance to the victims. Sumy – a “Shahed” drone hit a residential building, Kryvyi Rih – the aftermath of a Russian missile attack, Donetsk region, in particular the city of Myrnohrad – a Russian strike, an air bomb directly hit a residential building. Each of these strikes took lives. My condolences to all those who have lost loved ones. Today we also had a separate conversation about Odesa – about helping people after the destruction of a house on Dobrovolskoho Avenue. As agreed, the regional authorities and the Cabinet of Ministers are helping with new housing and other similar issues. In general, after each Russian attack, all services respond promptly, all necessary resources are involved: from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, regional authorities, utilities, and the National Police.

I would like to once again thank everyone involved in the rescue operations, working to clear the rubble, helping and supporting people who have lost their loved ones. It is very important that after the Russian strikes our people are not left alone with pain and problems. And it is the responsibility of local authorities, all state and municipal services, and if necessary, the central government, including the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, to respond and handle all situations so that people truly feel that Ukraine always helps. And no matter what happens, there will be support in every corner of our country. This is exactly what is needed.

I would especially like to recognize the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Sumy region. Sergeants Oleh Sakhnenko and Ivan Vorozhko, Master Sergeant Volodymyr Ponomarenko, Captain Oleksandr Moyseyenko and Colonel Volodymyr Prokopchuk. I would also like to recognize the staff of the State Emergency Service in Dnipropetrovsk region, in particular those who work in Kryvyi Rih and help safeguard people’s normal life. Sergeant Maksym Zaliznyi, Master Sergeant Oleksandr Makhno, Senior Lieutenant Illia Mustiatsa, Captain Volodymyr Havryliuk and employees of the State Mining Rescue Unit of the State Emergency Service Pavlo Doroshenko and Yevhen Konovalov. I am grateful to you guys and all your colleagues!

A few more things.

I held several meetings on our international work. First, the European Union. Next steps towards full membership. Yesterday, the European Commission finalized the Negotiating Framework. Next, we are waiting for the decision of European leaders on its approval. It will be an important and strong signal for both Ukraine and the entire European community to do everything possible to start negotiations as early as during the Belgian presidency in the first half of this year. This should be our common pace, both for Ukraine and the EU. We have a clear sequence of steps and I am confident that we can achieve the result.

I also held a more strategic meeting on the American vector of our policy. We discussed how to give more proper impulses to our work with partners and joint pressure on the Russian state throughout this year. Winning here in Ukraine in this confrontation with Russian terror is a matter of survival for democratic systems, a matter of what democracies are capable of. Ukraine is capable of defending itself, given sufficient support. And having defended ourselves, we can ensure that no other international criminal will be tempted by aggression like Putin. We can protect life and we must do so.

Glory to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! Glory to our people!

Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Good job Republican members of the House and Senate!

Putin: “It would be ridiculous for us to start negotiating with Ukraine just because it’s running out of ammunition.”
Republican leadership of the House cutting off military supplies to Ukraine has made Putin drop his pretense about desiring peace talks. He wants it all. pic.twitter.com/rlcmtaJz9U

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 13, 2024

You can’t shame the shameless.

Polish PM Donald Tusk with some pretty blunt words for @SpeakerJohnson re: Ukraine aid (quotes via @Marekwalkuski) pic.twitter.com/juBBdlFm2z

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) March 12, 2024

Secretary of State Blinken met with EU High Representative Borrell today.

Borrell: You are doing a lot.  We are doing a lot. I think we can do still more in order to support Ukrainians in these very challenging times.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 13, 2024

This is a very good question:

🎙️AMERICA FIRST… Europe alone?

☂️Since 1945 the US has extended its security umbrella over Europe. Could Trump 2.0 upend that?

🇺🇸We asked @BrunoTertrais & @shashj how reliant Europe is on the US, and whether it is ready to stand alone

👂FULL EPISODE👉https://t.co/iqTyB8riQ1 pic.twitter.com/L8nEbYPQCY

— Uncommon Decency (@UnDecencyPod) March 13, 2024

This seems like it could be a positive development:

Really good news: on Friday, Scholz, Macron, and Tusk will meet, revive the Weimar Triangle, and sketch out a joint strategy on Ukraine. Let’s hope this will end Franco-German disagreement and will be understood in Moscow as a clear message : no way we will let Ukraine down!

— Wolfgang Ischinger (@ischinger) March 13, 2024

We have to wait to see what, if anything results.

Polish FM on Ukraine's negotiations with Russia: No shortage of ‘pocket Chamberlains’ ready to sacrifice someone else's territory for sake of their comfort. pic.twitter.com/fp0y7kfBkH

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) March 12, 2024

In case you’ve seen the AP reporting on Putin’s remarks regarding the use of nukes, here’s what he said:

“From the military-technical point of view we are, of course, prepared,” Putin said. “[The US is] developing their components. So are we. That doesn’t mean, in my view, that they are prepared to start this nuclear war tomorrow. If they are — what can we do? We’re prepared.” https://t.co/ChUnIfSuzc

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 13, 2024

Putin likes trotting these nuclear threats out when he feels like it's a good time to pressure the west and stop it from giving Ukraine more support.

But as @xtophercook and I reported, what he's talking about means a very low nuclear threshold:https://t.co/qAV5yA5nju

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 13, 2024

And here’s what’s really going on.

Russia threatens nuclear weapons on a weekly basis now.

This isn’t breaking news, @AP, this is Vladimir Putin being terrified of his country failing. https://t.co/ez41myGnCZ

— Julien Hoez (@JulienHoez) March 13, 2024

Sorry, what's BREAKING about this?

Other than the fact that Putin is again starting a new wave of global nuclear blackmailing and extortion in his war propaganda, of course.

Previous attempts to scare the West off from providing Ukraine with all appropriate tools to curtail… https://t.co/rMzTtYUSJX

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 13, 2024

Sorry, what’s BREAKING about this?

Other than the fact that Putin is again starting a new wave of global nuclear blackmailing and extortion in his war propaganda, of course.

Previous attempts to scare the West off from providing Ukraine with all appropriate tools to curtail and end Russia’s invasion were quite successful — so why not carry on and extort more — and then more, and more, and more?

My question is if the media realize that with such BREAKING headlines, they only help the Kremlin play its “Give me this and that and kneel to me because otherwise, it’s NUKES” card.

It’s not that we spent two years beating our heads against the wall and trying to make it clear that you can’t encourage warmongering dictators by backing down to their nuclear intimidation — this would inevitably only make things worse.

Ukraine has gone on the hunt in response to Russia’s bombardment of civilian targets.

The difference between Russia & Ukraine illustrated in today’s attacks – Kyiv targeted 3 oil refineries & the Russians blew up 3 apartment blocks murdering 6 civilians.

Ukraine is fighting a defensive war according to international law while Russia indiscriminately slaughters.

— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) March 13, 2024

Over 60 drones were spotted overnight and this morning across different regions of Russia. Drone attacks have been reported in Ryazan, Voronezh, Bryansk, Kursk, Leningrad, and Belgorod regions. This makes the largest drone attack deep inside Russia so far pic.twitter.com/06D50W3sFR

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 13, 2024

/2. Moment of the drone strike on Ryazan oil refinery pic.twitter.com/wf70WqdD6L

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 13, 2024

The Financial Times has the details:

Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes on oil refineries deep inside Russia, in what officials depict as an intensifying effort to hit the country’s economy.

In the second consecutive day of assaults on Russian energy infrastructure, explosions were confirmed on sites in the country’s heartlands such as Ryazan, Kstovo and Kirishi.

The damaged facilities, which are all hundreds of kilometres away from the border with Ukraine, account for about 10 per cent of Russia’s total oil processing capacity.

A Ukrainian official with knowledge of the attacks said the state security service used drones overnight in “a series of special operations against enemy oil refineries”.

The official added that Ukraine was “systematically implementing a detailed strategy . . . to deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of oil money and fuel”.

Kyiv and Moscow have both stepped up drone attacks in recent months as Ukrainian forces struggle to repel their better-armed Russian foes on the battlefield.

The targeting of oil refineries comes amid growing frustration in Ukraine with the hesitant approach western powers have taken to targeting Moscow’s energy revenues.

While the G7 and the EU have tried to limit how much Russia can sell its oil for, they have also sought to keep Russian barrels on the market to avoid a price spike ahead of the US presidential election in November.

Earlier this month, Russia implemented a ban on petrol exports in an effort to keep prices stable amid rising demand.

The Russian defence ministry on Wednesday claimed to have shot down more than 60 Ukrainian drones.

But videos posted on Russian social media showed several Ukrainian drones bypassing air defences and causing explosions.

Another Ukrainian official said Wednesday’s attack had caused “quite significant” damage on the targeted refineries.

One video showed flames and a huge plume of black smoke rising from the Ryazan oil refinery south-east of Moscow. Pavel Malkov, governor of the Ryazan region, said there were injuries but did not elaborate.

Ukrainian security forces also launched drone strikes on Wednesday against a Russian air force base in Buturlinovka and a military airfield in Voronezh, both about 200km from the Ukrainian border.

The previous day Ukraine had launched a wave of drone strikes against energy sites and oil refineries in at least seven Russian regions.

Ukraine-backed Russian paramilitary units opposed to President Vladimir Putin’s regime also launched cross-border incursions with tanks and armoured vehicles into Belgorod and Kursk regions on Tuesday.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv was responding to Russian aggression.

“We will inflict losses on the Russian state in response — quite rightly,” he said in an evening address on Tuesday. “Those in the Kremlin must get used to the fact that terror does not go unpunished for them.”

Russian missiles and attack drones, including Shahed drones made by Iran and supplied to Moscow for its war effort, often target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.

A Russian missile strike on Tuesday morning destroyed an apartment building in Zelenskyy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, in southern Ukraine, killing three people and injuring 30 more.

A Shahed drone attack on Wednesday morning also crushed an apartment building in Sumy, northern Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities said there were deaths and injuries but did not clarify how many.

At least four of 32 Russia’s major refineries have been attacked since the beginning of 2024. Some of them, including the Rosneft plant in Tuapse on the Black Sea coast that was attacked in January, have had to cease operations.

More at the link!

Well this is an amazing coincidence!

Yesterday, it was the Lukoil oil refinery that was attacked in the Nizhniy Novgorod region. Today, another top manager is dead at a fairly young age. pic.twitter.com/PlriBgKxsR

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 13, 2024

The Ukrainians, despite all they’ve been through, do this for the Russians despite the fact that the Russians do not do this for the Ukrainians.

Escorting a captured Russian soldier who confused Ukrainians from the 3rd Assault Brigade with "his own". pic.twitter.com/uemtWrrUcq

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 13, 2024

Kursk Oblast:

Fighters of the "Liberty of Russia" Legion "Apostol" and "Domovoy" state that the Russian unit is still in Tyotkyno, Kursk Oblast, despite claims by Russian officials that they've been knocked out with hundreds of losses. pic.twitter.com/g336541Iv0

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 13, 2024

Art of the wartime. pic.twitter.com/DC6YjmtQi4

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 13, 2024

Last night in the comments, Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom asked:

Adam, Alison, this is a personal question, & I am fine if you choose not to answer it or comment. What do the 2 of you think of Jonathan Glazer’s Oscar acceptance speech? Despite being Jewish himself, he’s received an incredible amount of criticism for it. There’s been some praise too, but it doesn’t balance out.

I can’t speak for Alison, nor would I try. I do not watch the Oscars, not this year or ever. So I did not see the speech. My understanding is that it was initially misreported and misrepresented. From what I can tell from reading his full remarks, they do not bother me at all. I think they are nuanced, which was something that disappeared quickly after the 7 October attacks. As far back as I can remember we have had a group of “professional” Jews who purport to speak for all Jews and who also do boundary maintenance on what is and is not acceptable for Jews to say or do. Basically they think the Deity died and left them in charge. I don’t have any real issues with what Glazer said.

Bookworm1398 asked:

@ Adam. The right wing blogs I visit are full of speculation about the resignation of Victoria Nuland and what it might mean for the administration’s Ukraine policy. So I was just wondering, is it significant? Does it mean anything?

Most of Biden’s top nat-sec people have either stayed far longer than one would expect or have been quietly resigning and moving on for the past six to ten months. The burn out rate for these positions is quite high. The work days never really end. You’re always on call and never really off the clock. And the Biden administration inherited multiple major crises and wicked problems and, over the past two years, have had a number of others rise to the surface as a result of neglect by prior administrations, the lack of adjustment of American policy and strategy going back decades, or a combination of the two. I’m not surprised she’s stepping down. Nor do I think it’ll make any difference. Right now the two major issues affecting the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy is the failure to get the Ukraine supplemental through the GOP majority House of Representatives and the Biden nat-sec team’s seeming inherent risk aversion.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

The Kremlin must get used to the fact that terror does not go unpunished for them – address by the President of Ukraine

12 March 2024 – 21:21

Dear Ukrainians!

The rescue operation after the Russian missile strike is still underway in Kryvyi Rih. A part of a nine-story apartment building was destroyed, as well as the ceiling between floors. There was a fire. Many people were injured – over 30. There are severely wounded. Everyone is being provided with the necessary assistance. Unfortunately, there are fatalities. My condolences to all family members and friends.

We will inflict losses on the Russian state in response – quite rightly. They in the Kremlin must get used to the fact that terror does not go unpunished for them. Nothing will cure these sick men of their evil, but they will feel the losses. The Russian state will lose, and only this can make it safe for its neighbors. Not only for Ukraine. For different nations, our actions are now life-saving.

Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi made a report about our actions on the battlefield, the actions of our reconnaissance officers, and the performance of our drones. The Commander-in-Chief is now at the front. And there is a necessary dynamic of actions for Ukraine. Today, I also received preliminary results on the use of our drones from the Armed Forces, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine. I think everyone can see our drones in action. Particularly in a long-range action. I am grateful to everyone who makes this possible. Our long-range capabilities are a real step closer to safety for everyone.

I held several important meetings throughout the day. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Interior Minister Klymenko, and other government officials. I agreed on further steps in the development of our State Border Guard Service and, accordingly, our border guard forces.

I am proud of every Ukrainian who serves in the border guard forces and protects the interests of our country and our national independence. We will increase the number of border guard forces, in view of both the current tasks of countering aggression and the long-term protection of our country’s borders after this war.

In addition, today I would like to recognize the units and warriors of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine who have been particularly effective in these weeks and months. In particular, the border guards of the Sumy Detachment who counter Russian subversive groups and strengthen our defensive positions on the border. I am grateful to all of you, warriors! Sergeants Artem Pedora and Oleksandr Poroskun deserve special gratitude. Chernihiv Border Guard Detachment: Master Sergeant Serhiy Khomenko and Senior Sergeant Serhiy Shvets. Thank you! Kharkiv Border Guard Detachment: Senior Soldier Valekh Zarbaliyev and Chief Sergeant Andriy Syzonov. Thank you, guys, for destroying Russian equipment and clearing the area of Russian mines! Of course, I am also grateful to everyone who is fighting at the front along with all units of our Defense Forces. The warriors of the Rapid Response Border Commandant’s Service of the Volyn Border Guard Detachment, the “Revenge” and “Steel Border” brigades, as well as the warriors of the special unit DOZOR. Well done to all of you.

The Minister of Internal Affairs reported on the key current security issues within the state, including the work of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine on demining. It is extremely important for saving the lives of our people – for protecting them from Russian mines and unexploded ordnance. I am grateful to each and every person involved in this work of clearing Ukrainian land.

There was an important economic report on our resource and energy sectors. We are making good progress. Various assets that have not been working for our country for decades are now producing the necessary results for the budget. And this gives everyone in our country more power.

And a few other things.

Yesterday I signed the law on lobbying. This was one of the prerequisites for further progress in relations with the European Union – we have fulfilled everything. And, as agreed with the President of the European Commission, today the Negotiating Framework for Ukraine was approved. We are one step closer to the European Union. The decision now rests with EU member states. We continue to prepare for the accession negotiations.

Today, I also want to thank the United States and all Americans who value freedom for the U.S. defense assistance to Ukraine. I am looking forward to our country receiving the new military aid package.

We are making every effort to strengthen Ukraine and Ukrainians while inflicting maximum losses on the occupiers.

Glory to everyone who is in Ukraine and with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

My Stupid Wild Ass Guess (SWAG) is that today’s strike on civilian targets in President Zelenskyy’s home town of Kryvyi Rih are reprisals for the recent spate of successful attacks in Russia that have been attributed to Ukraine. Such as last night’s strikes:

Tonight drones attacked Moscow, Tula, Nizhny Novgorod, Belgorod, Kursk, Orel, and Voronezh, targeting infrastructure like Lukoil Oil refinery in Novgorod and oil storage facility in Orel. Will Iran and North Korea now supply air defenses to Russia as well? pic.twitter.com/IxzppK0LbT

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 12, 2024

Lukoil describes it as an 'operational upset' at the 17-million tonne/year Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. This facility handles 5% of Russia's oil volume and sits 800 km away from Ukraine 👀 pic.twitter.com/b1xaXqH0Pw

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 12, 2024

Reuters article regarding the attack on Nizhny Novgorod oil facility:

Industry sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the main crude distillation unit (AVT-6) at NORSI was damaged in the attack, which means that at least half of the refinery's production is halted.… https://t.co/hyBDeYBNnI

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

Reuters article regarding the attack on Nizhny Novgorod oil facility:

Industry sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the main crude distillation unit (AVT-6) at NORSI was damaged in the attack, which means that at least half of the refinery’s production is halted. Lukoil declined to comment.

NORSI refines about 15.8 million tonnes of Russian crude a year, or 5.8% of total refined crude, according to industry sources.

It also refines about 4.9 million tonnes of gasoline, 11% of Russia’s total, 6.4% of diesel fuel, 5.6% of fuel oil and 7.4% of the country’s aviation fuel, according to industry sources.

https://reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-launches-drones-oryol-fuel-facility-other-regions-russia-says-2024-03-12/

Reuters has more details:

MOSCOW, March 12 (Reuters) – Ukraine pounded targets in Russia on Tuesday with dozens of drones and rockets in an attack that inflicted serious damage on a major oil refinery and sought to pierce the land borders of the world’s biggest nuclear power with armed proxies.

Russia and Ukraine have both used drones to strike critical infrastructure, military installations and troop concentrations in their more than two-year war, with Kyiv hitting Russian refineries and energy facilities in recent months.

In one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia to date, Moscow said it downed 25 Ukrainian drones over regions including Moscow, Leningrad, Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Tula and Oryol. Waves of drone attacks continued through the day, the defence ministry said.

Russian officials reported attacks on energy facilities, including a fire at Lukoil’s (LKOH.MM), opens new tab NORSI refinery and a drone destroyed on the outskirts of the town of Kirishi, home to Russia’s second largest oil refinery.

Gleb Nikitin, governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, posted a picture of a fire truck beside the NORSI refinery and said emergency services were working to put out a blaze there.

“A fuel and energy complex facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles,” Nikitin said on Telegram.Striking Russian oil facilities is a problem for President Vladimir Putin as he faces off against the West over Ukraine, with domestic gasoline prices sensitive ahead of a March 15-17 presidential election.

Russia imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports on March 1.

Along with Iran, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., Russia has vast energy reserves but has, since oil was discovered in the wilds of Western Siberia in the 1960s, often relied on Western technology to exploit and refine its crude.

The Kremlin said the Russian military was doing everything necessary and that what it calls its military operation in Ukraine would continue.

Russia says it has destroyed more than 15,000 Ukrainian-launched drones since the start of the war.

The Biden administration. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

🧵Jake Sullivan: Today, on behalf of President Biden, I'm announcing an emergency package of security assistance of $300 million worth of weapons and equipment to address some of Ukraine's pressing needs.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 12, 2024

This is possible because of unanticipated cost savings in contracts that DOD negotiated to replace equipment we’ve already sent to Ukraine through previous drawdowns. 

We’re able to use these cost savings to make this modest amount of new security assistance available. 

Right now without impacting U.S. military readiness. And the President has directed his team to use these cost savings. This emergency package that we’re announcing contains a large tranche of artillery rounds and (inaudible) for the Himars. 

It is assistance that Ukraine desperately needs to hold the line against Russian attacks, and to push back against the continuing Russian onslaught in the Eastern and other parts of Ukraine. 

This ammunition will keep Ukraine’s guns firing for a period, but only a short period it is nowhere near enough to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs and it will not prevent Ukraine from running out of ammunition in the weeks to come. 

It goes without saying this package does not displace and should not delay the critical need to pass the bipartisan national security bill. 

As you all know, …& President Biden said it to the entire nation in the State of the Union last week that we cannot provide ongoing assistance to Ukraine without significantly impacting our military readiness, absent congressional action. 

That remains the case, despite this modest amount of cost savings that we are putting to use on an urgent basis.

Congress must act. The House of Representatives must pass the bipartisan national security supplemental as soon as possible. 

We all know that if it came up for a vote, it would pass on an overwhelmingly bipartisan basis, just as it did in the Senate.

And there is no other way around this. 

The House has got to pass the supplemental as soon as possible to allow us to continue the flow of vital security…assistance to Ukraine to replenish the US military’s munitions stocks, to invest in our industrial base and to support jobs in 40 states across the United States. 

The clock is ticking and we need to see action as rapidly as possible, even as we do everything in our power to get Ukraine what it needs in its hour of need.

William Burns, Director of the CIA, about providing aid to Ukraine:

"With this supplemental assistance, Ukraine can put itself in a position… to achieve an outcome in which Putin's goal which was to subjugate Ukraine and to control its choices would be denied.

Without… pic.twitter.com/BqzaNZTwZt

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 12, 2024

William Burns, Director of the CIA, about providing aid to Ukraine:

“With this supplemental assistance, Ukraine can put itself in a position… to achieve an outcome in which Putin’s goal which was to subjugate Ukraine and to control its choices would be denied.

Without supplemental assistance…lies a much grimmer future…you’re going to see more Avdiivkas, and that, it seems to me, would be a massive and historic mistake for the United States.”

About damn time!

The EU and Washington DC:

EU countries are set to agree a new €5bn top-up to a fund used to finance military shipments to Ukraine, as the US managed to scrape together $300mn more in ammunition and artillery for Kyiv. @HenryJFoy and @felschwartz https://t.co/3diNoD2AfE

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 12, 2024

The Financial Times has details:

EU countries are set to agree a new €5bn top-up to a fund used to finance military shipments to Ukraine, as the US managed to scrape together $300mn more in ammunition and artillery for Kyiv.

The EU deal, which needs formal approval at a meeting of member states on Wednesday, unlocks fresh cash for the reimbursement of arms supplies to Kyiv by countries in the bloc as a $60bn package is being held up by US Congress at a critical time for Ukraine’s war effort against Russia.

“[The] Ukrainians are struggling without ammunition,” a senior US defence official said in reference to recent advances by Russia and warnings from the Ukrainian military that it is rationing shells. “There was an imperative to act.”

The EU fund, known as the European Peace Facility, will prioritise weapons manufactured inside the bloc but not exclude those from non-EU countries if they are the only option, officials familiar with the matter told the Financial Times said.

The fund been a critical part of European military supplies to Ukraine since February 2022, but has been depleted and talks about a top-up have been ongoing for the past three months. One official said the agreement was about “flexibility by need and not by design. Driven by Ukrainian needs.”

The US has also run out of money to replenish the weapons sent to Ukraine and needs about $10bn in funds from Congress to replace weapons it has already sent, senior officials said. But recent savings from army contracts have allowed the US to cobble together about $300mn in additional assistance, they said.

“We do have funds . . . that can cover the cost of one more package, but this is a bit of an ad hoc or one time shot. We don’t know if or when future savings will come in, and we certainly can’t count on this as a way of doing business,” the senior US defence official said.

In the past the US was sending much larger packages about every two weeks or so to sustain Ukraine’s fight. Before Tuesday’s announcement, the US had provided $44.2bn in military assistance since Russia’s full-blown invasion in February 2022.

It has not sent any new assistance since December and the Biden administration is still hoping Congress will act to pass some $60bn in new assistance for Ukraine.

Some Republican and Democratic House lawmakers are working to force a vote on the $60bn package this week, which has passed the Senate but has been stalled in the House.

While Europe can plug some of the gaps the lack of US assistance leaves, ultimately it cannot provide what the US can, said Radosław Sikorski, foreign minister of Poland, in Washington on Tuesday.

He said: “We physically don’t have the weapons that are needed at the front. You have the weapons, so on Europe is crucial on the financial side. The United States is crucial on the military side.”

More at the link.

Poland:

Situation in Ukraine and future of NATO discussed in the meeting of 🇵🇱 President @AndrzejDuda with @SpeakerJohnson and @RepJeffries. https://t.co/e0yjqXt8UD

— Marek Magierowski (@mmagierowski) March 12, 2024

I hope President Duda gave them an earful! Like this:

Denmark:

I am grateful to Minister @troelslundp and all the people of Denmark for the new sizeable military aid package for Ukraine valued at 2,3 billion DKK ($337 million).

Denmark will co-finance additional CAESAR artillery systems in cooperation with France and 155-mm ammunition with… pic.twitter.com/F08R6rakkM

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) March 12, 2024

I am grateful to Minister @troelslundp and all the people of Denmark for the new sizeable military aid package for Ukraine valued at 2,3 billion DKK ($337 million).

Denmark will co-finance additional CAESAR artillery systems in cooperation with France and 155-mm ammunition with Estonia and the Czech Republic. The package also includes 120-mm self-propelled mortars.

Thank you for strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities.

Russia has posted it’s high value target list:

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, they are the most dangerous enemies of Russia in the Baltic countries. 👇This is another hybrid warfare act against the NATO countries. It just shows how right we are. Ukraine must WIN and Russia must be DEFEATED https://t.co/v2DXVzDNfR pic.twitter.com/4BUvxPlXnE

— Marko Mihkelson (@markomihkelson) March 12, 2024

While I don’t think he’s on the list above, Leonid Volkov, the Chief of Staff for the late Alexey Navalny, was violently attacked earlier today.

Leonid Volkov @leonidvolkov – my dear colleague and a member of Alexei Navalny's team – has just been attacked outside his house in Europe.

Someone broke a car window and sprayed tear gas in his eyes, after which the attacker started hitting Leonid with a hammer.

Leonid is… pic.twitter.com/7lSYzxynOv

— Nadya Tolokonnikova (@nadyariot) March 12, 2024

Leonid Volkov @leonidvolkov – my dear colleague and a member of Alexei Navalny’s team – has just been attacked outside his house in Europe.

Someone broke a car window and sprayed tear gas in his eyes, after which the attacker started hitting Leonid with a hammer.

Leonid is now at home, police and ambulance are on their way to him.

Been just chatting with Leonid like 30 minutes ago and WTF WTF WTF

HITTING WITH A HAMMER WTF
PUTIN IS A KILLER

 

Leonid Volkov @leonidvolkov has just been attacked outside his house. Someone broke a car window and sprayed tear gas in his eyes, after which the attacker started hitting Leonid with a hammer. Leonid is now at home, police and ambulance are on their way to him

— Кира Ярмыш (@Kira_Yarmysh) March 12, 2024

Killing Navalny wasn't enough. Like Ukraine won't be enough. Aggressive dictators don't stop unless & until they are stopped.

Attacking Volkov in Lithuania—a NATO country—is a message that Putin killed Navalny, and will attempt to kill every oppositionist in and out of Russia. https://t.co/0R4LZMldYk

— 🇺🇦Paula Chertok🗽 (@PaulaChertok) March 12, 2024

Ivanovo Oblast, Russia:

Russia’s state RIA Novosti, citing Defense Ministry, reports the military IL-76 plane crashed during takeoff in the Ivanovo region. There were eight crew members and seven passengers on board. The cause was a fire in one of the engines during takeoff.

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 12, 2024

/10. pic.twitter.com/z7oW79G3qv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

Here’s the full image of the meme above.

/12. IL-76 crash site pic.twitter.com/IKY7oiRlpY

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

Free Russia Legion liberated the village of Tyotkino in Kursk Oblast. Russian occupiers were seen running away, abandoning their vehicles and positions, as reported by Legion's press service.https://t.co/XSqMafcTba pic.twitter.com/NGRvTdwRpc

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 12, 2024

Footage of a Russian tank belonging to the "Russian Volunteer Corps" shelling positions of the kremlin occupational formations.https://t.co/mUH9IzVHxu pic.twitter.com/SjlwUZJYGs

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 12, 2024

Explosions heard at the entrance to Belgorod.

Just for clarity, highly doubtful there will be any meaningful incursion into the city itself. pic.twitter.com/phkGjSH2ER

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 12, 2024

Russian Legion and RDK have crossed border with Russia in Kursk and Belgorod regions. Are they possibly bringing in additional voting boxes? pic.twitter.com/yrySN6gPtx

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 12, 2024

Reuters has reporting on the cross border incursion by these Ukrainian aligned Russian militias.

Russia said Ukrainian proxies had sought to cross the Russian border in at least seven attacks that Russian forces had repelled. The Russian-speaking Ukrainian proxies said they had breached the border, a claim denied by Russia.

Russia said its forces prevented incursions from Ukraine in the western Belgorod and Kursk regions and inflicted heavy losses on the attackers, after Ukraine-based armed groups said they had launched cross-border raids.

“Ukrainian terrorist formations, supported by tanks and armoured combat vehicles, attempted to invade the territory of the Russian Federation simultaneously,” the Russian defence ministry said.

At least two Ukraine-based armed groups purporting to be made up of Russians opposed to the Kremlin said they had launched an incursion across Russia’s western border on Tuesday.

Russia denied that the groups, which Moscow casts as puppets of the Ukrainian military and U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, had penetrated its territory, but said the border had come under attack in several places.

The TASS news agency cited the Federal Security Service (FSB) as saying Russian forces had killed 100 people and destroyed multiple armoured vehicles when fighting off attempted incursions.

Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine had fired eight RM-70 rockets and one Tochka-U missile at the Belgorod region.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

There should be no place of rest for the occupier – address by the President of Ukraine

11 March 2024 – 20:56

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, most of the day was devoted to military and war issues. First, the meeting of the Staff. Detailed reports on each direction of our frontline: from Kupyansk to Kherson region. The Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff, the commanders of the directions, the Ministry of Defense.

The troops are now stabilizing our positions at the front. And they are doing so despite the fact that supplies from our partners remain significantly limited. I am grateful to every soldier and commander – to all our warriors who ensure our defense and our frontline operations with their strength and resilience. And I am grateful to every enterprise here in Ukraine and to all joint ventures with partners for the continuous increase in our own supplies, for the much-needed weapons for our independence: drones, shells, artillery, and vehicles.

There was also a report on the construction of fortifications. More than 2,000 kilometers of tasks, shoring up the existing fortifications and creating new ones – at least three lines of our strength. They are designed to meet the threats. All the necessary resources have been deployed. The government, regional leaders and the military are personally responsible for the result. The result should speak for itself, with its reliability for every soldier.

Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and Defense Minister Umerov made a separate report. They spoke about the current situation at the front and about planning our actions. There should be no place of rest for the occupier. Today we also discussed preparations for the next Ramstein meeting and the key points of our communication with partners regarding weapons and ammunition.

Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Budanov also delivered a separate report. Several issues were raised. First of all, Russia’s military plans. Not only against our country, but also against other nations. The common task of the world now is to thwart this sick Putin’s fantasy that he allegedly has time to continue the war. Perhaps he will intensify mobilization after the imitation of “elections” now in March. Mobilization of Russians. However, we must further limit the mobilization of resources and finances, tightening the remnants of Russia’s ties with the world even more severely. And everyone who values the lives of their people must do this – every leader. I am grateful to everyone who helps.

Today I held several meetings with government officials, the financial and economic block of our government and the National Bank, to discuss the state of our financial system. We ensure the stability and reliable operation of financial institutions. We also discussed this year’s budget work. I am grateful to all entrepreneurs who work, pay taxes and preserve jobs.

This is the period of our maximum concentration, our maximum initiative to ensure that it is Ukraine that determines a just end to this war. We can endure. We have to win.

Glory to all who fight and work for the sake of Ukraine and Ukrainians! Glory to everyone in the world who upholds justice!

Glory to Ukraine!

20 Days in Mariupol has won an Oscar 2024 in the Documentary Feature Film category.

The documentary directed by Mstyslav Chernov describes the terrible events in the city: the deaths of children and adults, the mass graves, the maternity ward destroyed by a russian airstrike,… pic.twitter.com/vOALXVQzDb

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 11, 2024

20 Days in Mariupol has won an Oscar 2024 in the Documentary Feature Film category.

The documentary directed by Mstyslav Chernov describes the terrible events in the city: the deaths of children and adults, the mass graves, the maternity ward destroyed by a russian airstrike, and other russian war crimes.

The world has to know the truth about russia’s war crimes.
Democracies have to provide Ukraine with military aid to defeat russian aggression.

It is a great honor for us to represent Ukraine at the Oscars ceremony. This statuette, this victory is for Ukrainians, for the people of Mariupol. I’m thankful to everyone who defends our country and fights for our freedom. pic.twitter.com/xgPghNCJfn

— Мstyslav Chernov (@mstyslavchernov) March 11, 2024

The City of Mary by the Sea.

We remember you as you were living your best life that hot and bright summer of ‘21.

Clean streets, wonderful coffee shops and new restaurants, the gentle roar of the sea, boys and girls playing volleyball on the beach, the magnificent contours of… pic.twitter.com/RtXqe8aNqZ

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 11, 2024

The City of Mary by the Sea.

We remember you as you were living your best life that hot and bright summer of ‘21.

Clean streets, wonderful coffee shops and new restaurants, the gentle roar of the sea, boys and girls playing volleyball on the beach, the magnificent contours of gigantic steel factories.

The last summer before the Russian plague came — and turned a vibrant city, the fastest developing one in Ukraine, into a giant mass grave amid ruins.

Why, whatever for, how could they have so much hatred, savagery, and bloodthirstiness on their mind to do THAT.

I’m afraid the holocaust of Mariupol was in 2022 was so horrific that we, even two years on, do not fully realize what had happened to the City of Mary by the Sea.

Guys behind @20DaysMariupol did the greatest piece of journalism amid this war, and one of the greatest journalistic works of all time.

I just hope the world will finally make conclusions from what it saw as the Oscar’s best documentary 2023.

Otherwise, we fail as a species again.

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence held its annual hearing with the Directors of National Intelligence, Central Intelligence, and the FBI today.

🧵DNI Avril Haines: Putin strategic goals remain unchanged. He continues to see NATO enlargement and Western support to Ukraine as reinforcing his long held belief that the United States and Europe seek to restrict Russian power and undermine him.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024

🇺🇸🙏 Without additional support, in 2024 you will see "even more Avdiivka" in Ukraine, — CIA chief William Burns pic.twitter.com/rLrAs89nwE

— MAKS 23 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 11, 2024

Burns: The truth is that the Ukrainians are not running out of courage and tenacity. They’re running out of ammunition. And we’re running out of time to help them.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024

Burns on Putin: “It’s our assessment that Russia is not serious about negotiations today, in the sense that they may be interested in the theater of negotiations, but they're not really interested in negotiating, in the sense of compromise right now.“

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024

“the Russian leadership…in other words, to puncture his confidence that time is on his side, to demonstrate that for Russia also, there are long term consequences to this war, They’ve already suffered enormously in terms of their military 315,000+ dead and wounded.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024

Here’s the link to the Annual Threat Assessment.

"We also cannot continue putting the ball on our supplemental funding request in support of Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression," says @DepSecDef. "We need Congress to come together. The world is watching what we do in this moment."

— Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) March 11, 2024

From Politico: (emphasis mine)

The Pentagon has sent $10 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine that it still does not have the money to replace due to congressional gridlock, according to a top Defense Department official.

DOD officials expect funding to replenish the equipment the U.S. has already sent to Ukraine to be included in President Joe Biden’s supplemental request, which provides billions of additional dollars in aid for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. But that legislation has languished on Capitol Hill for months amid partisan bickering.

If DOD does not get the funding to backfill its stocks, the impact of that “ongoing hole” will ultimately be felt by the U.S. military’s own forces, said a senior DOD official, who was granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement.

“We have not been able to, with the funding we have to date — and there’s a big funding piece waiting in the supplemental — replenish everything we’ve already given to Ukraine,” the official told reporters. “So it would come back on our own readiness on our own stockpile to a certain extent if we can’t get new funding.”

DOD announced in December that it would be unable to send new weapons to Kyiv until Congress approves Biden’s supplemental request. But this is the first time officials have acknowledged that the U.S. is already in a $10 billion hole when it comes to backfilling its stocks.

The deficit stems from the difference in the value of the equipment sent to Ukraine compared to the cost to replace it: For example, if the Army sends older munitions that are no longer being produced, it might replace them with a newer version that is more expensive.

The comments come as the Pentagon on Monday unveiled its budget request for fiscal 2025, though lawmakers have yet to pass an appropriations bill for fiscal 2024. The Pentagon is operating under a stopgap measure, called a continuing resolution, that freezes spending at last year’s levels and prevents officials from starting new programs.

U.S. officials are growing concerned that Ukraine is running out of critical weapons, including ammunition and air defenses, as lawmakers stall on the aid package. But there are worries, too, about shortfalls in U.S. weapons if officials are not able to replenish DOD’s stocks.

The $10 billion covers only the cost to replace munitions and other weapons the U.S. has already sent Ukraine. It does not include the increase of U.S. forces to Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine to help defend allies in Eastern Europe as well as train the Ukrainians, which is an expense the Army is paying, the official said.

But officials view Ukraine as the more urgent problem. DOD has been unable to send Kyiv additional weapons since December, when appropriations to backfill its stocks ran out. The department still has $4.4 billion in authority to send aid to Ukraine, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has been “reluctant” to tap into that fund without money to replace the weapons in the U.S., the official said.

DOD is unable to legally transfer money from other accounts to replenish the weapons it sends to Ukraine, the official stressed.

As another option, DOD officials have discussed using $200 million in savings that the Army negotiated in prior contracts for weapons for Ukraine to send additional aid, the official said. However, that is not an alternative to the $66 billion supplemental, the official said. Bloomberg first reported this option.

“We are still, in the big scheme of things, pretty close to broke,” the official said.

The senior official urged lawmakers to pass the legislation, saying the failure to do so will cost Ukraine dearly.

“They are low on ammunition today. They are fighting and dying today. If we can’t help them, there isn’t another industrial base on the planet that can really take our place,” the official said.

Given the House GOP majority’s unwillingness and inability to pass regular appropriations, let alone the Ukraine supplemental, these developments in Brussels are welcome.

Brussels proposal to fast track up to €3bn for Ukraine from frozen Russian assets set to be put to member states in the coming days, could see money spent on arms for Kyiv as soon as this summer https://t.co/rCY1rBkJyF via @ft w @lauramdubois & @paolatamma

— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) March 11, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Brussels is pushing to give Ukraine €2bn-€3bn this year from profits derived from Russia’s frozen assets, accelerating the funding plan as US financial support to Kyiv wanes.

The European Commission is preparing a plan, according to officials, that would involve seizing sanctions-related profits, dating from February onwards, earned at the central securities depository Euroclear.

After months of wrangling, a first tranche of money could be disbursed as early as July if Brussels can secure approval of member states, officials said. The proposal is expected before a summit of EU leaders next week.

Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has called for the funds to be used for military support, rather than postwar reconstruction as had been originally envisaged — a contentious approach for some capitals.

About €190bn in Russian sovereign assets have been immobilised at Euroclear since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, generating €3.85bn in profits.

The latest plans would provide between €2bn and €3bn to Ukraine this year, depending on interest rates, the officials said. The total profits siphoned from Euroclear could reach €20bn by 2027, according to EU officials.

The hotly debated question of whether to use Russian funds tied up in Brussels-based Euroclear to aid Ukraine has become more pressing as the war has entered its third year and international aid has dwindled.

The depository holds the bulk of the €260bn in Russian central bank assets frozen by western sanctions.

With G7 countries split over whether to seize the underlying assets and hand them over to Ukraine, the EU proposed a parallel track of using only the profits.

The EU initially planned to use some of the Euroclear funds for Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction, but with further US military aid blocked by Republicans in Congress, the focus has moved to military support.

Von der Leyen last month floated the idea of using the profits to buy weapons for Ukrainian forces, but this suggestion is likely to face opposition from member states, including Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.

According to the Kyiv finance ministry, only about half of the $37bn needed from international partners this year has been committed by the EU and the IMF. Officials in Ukraine have reached out to other partners and are hoping the profits on frozen assets could help fill that gap.

The EU could use the profits to buy weapons for Ukraine through an existing fund for which member states are currently negotiating a €5bn top-up, or to invest in the Ukrainian defence industry.

According to a draft of the commission’s internal proposal seen by the Financial Times, Brussels could appropriate 97 per cent of the net profits derived from frozen Russian assets held by Euroclear, and transfer them to the EU budget.

The money would then be paid out every quarter or twice a year and “could be used to the benefit of Ukraine according to different arrangements”, the draft says.

More at the link.

Now we have to wait to see if the EU actually does it and what it means if it does do so. One of the major issues is that neither the US, nor the EU member states defense manufacturing base are currently able to produce enough weapons systems, ammunition, and other defense material to meet Ukraine’s needs. Having more money to buy weapons, weapons systems, and ammunition is a great thing. But only if there is stuff one can buy with it. Also, Euroclear is a major financial system player. It is unclear what doing this would do to global markets. As in whether it would destabilize them.

As are these in the Czech Republic:

Czech President Petr Pavel made the impossible possible and not only organized 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine but also the financing. Around €1.5 billion have been organized and the ammunition will arrive the coming weeks.

The source of the ammunition is not entirely… pic.twitter.com/hRTQAkqbcM

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 11, 2024

Czech President Petr Pavel made the impossible possible and not only organized 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine but also the financing. Around €1.5 billion have been organized and the ammunition will arrive the coming weeks.

The source of the ammunition is not entirely disclosed but according to to Bild speculations go that it might be South Korea, Turkey and South Africa. I would like to add that I find it possible that Pakistan is also one of the suppliers.

This extraordinary feat shows once again that if there is a will then there is a way.

Source: Bild

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

/2. Ship location. (46.5064328, 32.1549024) pic.twitter.com/Qom9RZ4nZH

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 11, 2024

/4. On satellite images, an object was occasionally seen (on 3/8 of March) near the ship/command post. Probably those are the boats during the resupply mission. https://t.co/ImuSUHc1cQ pic.twitter.com/IbZzFQtvX1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

Rumours that the infamous rus blogger "13th" was on board. If so, he'd left behind 200k+ followers on telegram. https://t.co/JXJ5ZwGLmg

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 11, 2024

"13th" turned out to be alive for now, as I presumed. Rather silly from a guy who was cursing Putin in June 2023 and fully supported the late Pringles in his march on Moscow.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 11, 2024

More about the drone strikes at Taganrog, Russia:

"Ukrainian officials…told the FT that an attack by Ukraine at the weekend had critically damaged two Russian A-50 long-range radar detection planes at an aircraft repair facility in the southern port city of Taganrog."@ChristopherJM @maxseddon https://t.co/iIngkUrVY2 https://t.co/OaBv12BKN2 pic.twitter.com/lAJZBJSkyz

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 11, 2024

It appears the Ukrainians did damage more Russian A-50s.

The Financial Times has the details:

Ukrainian officials who confirmed the change in Russia’s navy leadership also told the FT that an attack by Ukraine at the weekend had critically damaged two Russian A-50 long-range radar detection planes at an aircraft repair facility in the southern port city of Taganrog.

In addition to attacks on the Russian navy, Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv’s forces on Saturday had successfully used domestically produced drones to critically damage the two Russian A-50s.

Satellite images appeared to support their assessment. They showed blast marks in the area where one of the long-range radar detection aircraft had been parked on the tarmac at the time of the attack and on the rooftop of the hangar where the other plane is believed to have been located.

A representative for Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate said on Monday that the agency was still working to clarify the extent of the damage to the planes and declined to provide further information. Ukraine’s air force declined to comment.

Serhiy Prytula, a Ukrainian public figure with connections to the military whose charity has hugely contributed to Kyiv’s wartime fundraising and production of its drone programme, boasted to his donors on X that their efforts had contributed to the success of the attack on the Taganrog facility.

Russia’s defence ministry claimed on Saturday that it had shot down 41 drones in the area but did not comment on reports the facility had been hit. One emergency services worker was taken to hospital, according to local officials.

Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s chief of military intelligence, told the FT in January that Russia had eight operational A-50 long-range radar detection planes prior to one being shot down by Kyiv’s forces over the Sea of Azov at the time. The three attacks since then means that Ukraine has now destroyed or badly damaged half of Russia’s A-50s in under two months.

The destruction of just one A-50, Budanov said in January, would probably affect Russia’s ability to operate and communicate in the war zone “around the clock”. The destruction of three more could have a huge impact on its reconnaissance and communications abilities, officials said.

After the second loss of an A-50, British defence intelligence said that Russia had “highly likely grounded the fleet from flying in support of Ukraine operations”.

Russia’s defence ministry has not commented on the loss of the first two planes, which pro-war bloggers ascribed to “friendly fire”.

Kursk, Russia:

Kursk, Russia, Special Military Operation zone, is under some sort of UAV attack pic.twitter.com/cELIHynrpd

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 11, 2024

Oryol, Russia:

/1. Russian oil depot in Oryol, hit by kamikaze drones. 165km from the Ukraine border.
(52.9614580, 36.1103500) pic.twitter.com/4cG6Jnb6J1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

I’m so sorry we won this Oscar. But I’m so thankful to the team of @mstyslavchernov that showed the story of Mariupol’s victims https://t.co/EyxFZTm767

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 11, 2024

Open thread!

More air defense systems and means of destruction of Russian aviation bring peace closer – address by the President of Ukraine

10 March 2024 – 22:08

Dear Ukrainians!

A few important things for this day and these weeks.

First of all, our defenders of the sky.

I would like to recognize all Ukrainian warriors who defend our sky every day and night. Only this Sunday night they managed to shoot down 35 “Shahed” drones. In total, since the beginning of March, Russian terrorists have already used 175 such killer drones against Ukraine. Fortunately, 151 of them were shot down by our warriors. And this is a very important result. Yes, not all of them. Yes, there are hits. Unfortunately, there are losses. There are casualties. But there are also people saved.

I am grateful to every warrior of our mobile firing groups in all regions of combat duty. I am grateful to every pilot and engineer of the Air Force, to all our air defense warriors. We will further enhance our firepower and Ukrainian air defense. More air defense systems and other means of destruction of Russian aviation bring peace closer. I am grateful to everyone in the world who helps us with this. Ukraine will have more air defense systems – we are working very hard on this.

Second. Our Defense Forces consist of many elements. Many brigades and units. And everyone who serves at the front, everyone who defends the state from Russian saboteurs and terror, everyone who performs combat missions deserves gratitude and respect. Russian murderers and torturers are not moving further into Europe only because they are being held back by Ukrainians with weapons in their hands and under the blue and yellow flag. In Ukraine, there were many once-white walls of houses and churches that are now scorched and ruined by Russian shells. And this speaks very eloquently about who has to stop for the war to end.

Anyone who protects life and people fulfills the most honorable possible mission amid such an inhuman invasion. And we must fully protect life in our home. And I thank everyone who supports our defense, Ukrainian defenders.

When the Russian evil started this war on February 24, all Ukrainians stood up for defense. Christians, Muslims, Jews – everyone. I thank every Ukrainian chaplain who is with the army, in the Defense Forces. They are on the frontline, protecting life and humanity, supporting with prayer, conversation, and deeds. This is what the church is – it is together with people, not two and a half thousand kilometers away somewhere, virtually mediating between someone who wants to live and someone who wants to destroy you. I thank everyone who is doing everything in Ukraine and with Ukraine to save lives, I thank everyone who is helping and who is really with us through actions and prayers.

Today I would like to recognize the servicemen of our National Guard who are fighting alongside everyone else on the frontline in the east and south of Ukraine. The warriors of the 3rd operational brigade – Junior Sergeant Viktor Ivanov and Lieutenant Kyrylo Kudinov. The 5th Slobozhanska Brigade of the National Guard – soldiers Serhiy Turilkin and Mykola Hnatyuk. I would also like to recognize the warriors of the 1st and 3rd assault squads of the Omega Special Forces Center of the National Guard. Thank you for your skills and the results Ukraine needs.

Also, following these weeks, we have reasons for gratitude to the servicemen of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine – the details should not be disclosed publicly now, but the enemy definitely feels their work. And the more the Russian state loses, the sooner all this evil of war will disappear from our land.

Today I spoke with French President Macron. The conversation lasted more than an hour. I am grateful to Emmanuel for his new initiatives in support of Ukraine, for his leadership, which gives all of us in Europe strength. I am grateful for the new defense package. We discussed the schedule and key expected results of our upcoming meeting in Ukraine.

One more thing. The holy month of Ramadan is now beginning for Muslims in Ukraine and around the world. And this year, unfortunately, Ramadan is overshadowed by ongoing war and suffering. May this month bring us all closer to a fair and just peace. Not only for Ukraine. But for all the nations that are suffering from war. Humanity is capable of achieving a level of unity where justice protects life from wars.

I am grateful to everyone who helps Ukraine and Ukrainians! I am grateful to everyone who defends life and justice!

Ramadan Mubarak! Glory to Ukraine!

And Ukrainian FM Kuleba’s even more pointed response to the Pope: “Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags.” https://t.co/r4oADwXHSn

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 10, 2024

The excerpt from President Zelenskyy is in the copied and pasted transcript of his address above. Here is the remainder of Foreign Minister Kuleba’s tweet:

The strongest is the one who, in the battle between good and evil, stands on the side of good rather than attempting to put them on the same footing and call it “negotiations”.

At the same time, when it comes to the white flag, we know this Vatican’s strategy from the first half of the twentieth century. I urge to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and to support Ukraine and its people in their just struggle for their lives.

Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags.

We thank His Holiness Pope Francis for his constant prayers for peace, and we continue to hope that after two years of devastating war in the heart of Europe, the Pontiff will find an opportunity to pay an Apostolic visit to Ukraine to support over a million Ukrainian Catholics, over five million Greek-Catholics, all Christians, and all Ukrainians.

 

Overnight, russia attacked Ukraine with 39 "Shahed" kamikaze drones.
Ukrainian air defenders shot down 35 UAVs.

Great work by our warriors. Thank you for your service!
We are also grateful to our partners for strengthening Ukraine's air defense capabilities.

📷: 53rd… pic.twitter.com/Q6OpXWoZrK

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 10, 2024

Overnight, russia attacked Ukraine with 39 “Shahed” kamikaze drones.
Ukrainian air defenders shot down 35 UAVs.

Great work by our warriors. Thank you for your service!
We are also grateful to our partners for strengthening Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.

📷: 53rd Mechanized Brigade (Illustrative photo)

For you Oscar enthusiasts:

🇺🇦🤞Fingers crossed for this incredible and important film to win tonight. https://t.co/xRXziUNobY

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 10, 2024

This might seem like a lot but actually accounts for just the minimum.

Ukrainian officials are looking at taking unpleasant internal measures to raise the $20.8bn, such as privatisation, tax hikes and worst case scenario, print more hryvnia

— Isobel Koshiw (@IKoshiw) March 10, 2024

For (2), worth bearing in mind how much ammo Ukraine needs to prevent Russian forces from advancing. To take one example, Ukraine’s defense min has said Ukraine needs roughly 110,000 155mm shells per month at a cost of €3,300each. That’s just one type of shell.

— Isobel Koshiw (@IKoshiw) March 10, 2024

The southern front:

/2. Spartan Brigade repels Russian attack on the southern fronthttps://t.co/99us9nroMb pic.twitter.com/8vd3FDpGhp

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 10, 2024

Germany:

Someone linked to this in the comments last night, I apologize for forgetting who.

Opposition leader of the CDU and potential next German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, delivered a fiery speech yesterday night in Stuttgart. I translated the core message.

Since I have been saying this for years and even carry this message in my signature, I approve this message by… pic.twitter.com/xPsdoPWmFc

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 9, 2024

Opposition leader of the CDU and potential next German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, delivered a fiery speech yesterday night in Stuttgart. I translated the core message.

Since I have been saying this for years and even carry this message in my signature, I approve this message by 100%.

Here is the whole address by CDU leader Friedrich Merz. I can’t vouch for the quality of the English dub.

The likely future german chancellor @_FriedrichMerz delivered a groundbreaking strategical speech yesterday.
Every second of these 8 minutes are worth listening to.

Germany, Europe, NATO, Ukraine and the free world needs this change.
Decent ai dubbed english translation . pic.twitter.com/PjeDTk2YVl

— C Schmitz (@chrisschmitz) March 9, 2024

Russia:

Vladimir Putin confirms he thinks he is a God. pic.twitter.com/e5bCAXjozV

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 10, 2024

I don’t know if Putin thinks he’s god, but he’s certainly completely all in on the alternative history he used to promote, then added to and expanded on, and now seems to accept as actual fact.

Khanty-Mansi Oblast, Russia:

A large fire broke out at a gas pipeline in the Khanty-Mansi region, Russia. This is the second incident of that kind after a similar event happened back in May 2023.

Source: Telegram / Shot pic.twitter.com/Hroqjv8GQp

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 10, 2024

St. Petersburg, Russia:

The fire which broke out in a warehouse/hangar near the Pulkovo Airport in Sankt Petersburg, Russia, caused all civilian air operations to be halted in this area.

Source of videos: Telegram / Stranaua pic.twitter.com/mBOsa1Nlez

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 10, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

A small furry warrior—the cutest thing you've seen today.

📹: @shaybaboy / Instagram pic.twitter.com/SmwCADJEcd

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 10, 2024

Open thread.

The President and the First Lady took part in the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize ceremony

9 March 2024 – 15:36

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska participated in the ceremony of awarding the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize.

“Today, we announce worthy winners of the Shevchenko Prize. We thank them,” said the Head of State.

According to the President’s decree, the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize in the Music Art category was awarded to artist Susana Jamaladinova (Jamala) for the album Qirim.

Also in the Music Art category, composer Karmella Tsepkolenko received the prize for cantatas “Reading the History” based on the poetry of Oksana Zabuzhko, “Where are you coming from, dark caravan, you flock of birds?” based on the poetry of Serhiy Zhadan, Duel-duet for violin and double bass, and Symphony No. 5.

In the Literature category, the prize was awarded to poet and servicewoman Yaryna Chornohuz for the poetry book “[dasein: defense of presence]” and to poet and serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmytro Lazutkin for the poetry book “Bookmark.”

Artist Andriy Yermolenko received the award in the Visual Arts category for the series of artworks “Ukrainian resistance.”

The laureates of the prize in the Theatrical Art category were stage director Ivan Uryvsky, production designer Tetiana Ovsiichuk, and choir conductor Susanna Karpenko for the performance “The Witch of Konotop” based on the story by Hryhoriy Kvitka-Osnovyanenko at the Ivan Franko National Academic Drama Theater.

In the Publicism/Journalism category, the prize winners were Yevhen Maloletka, Mstyslav Chernov, and Vasylysa Stepanenko for a series of journalistic materials on the siege of Mariupol (reports, photo and video reports, investigations, and the film “20 Days in Mariupol”). The film crew is in Los Angeles, representing Ukrainian cinema at the Oscar award ceremony.

The President called on those present to honor the memory of Ukrainian artists whose lives were taken by the Russian war.

“Viktoria Amelina. Volodymyr Vakulenko. Anton Romanchenko. Viktor Onysko. Ivan Kuzminsky. And many, many others… Who created and added deep meaning to the simple mode of address ‘Ukrainian men, Ukrainian women.’ I ask now to honor the memory of all whose lives became the life of Ukraine,” said Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

He said that war may take away a talented person from us, but it will never take away the memory of how much this talent has gifted Ukraine and our people, nor will it take away the respect for it.

“I want the memory of Ukrainian talents to never fade away. I want the strength of Ukrainian talents to never diminish. And I want applause to Ukrainian talents always sound in Ukraine,” added the President.

The solemn event was attended by Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk, Head of the President’s Office Andriy Yermak and his deputies, Chairman of the Committee on the Taras Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine Yevhen Nyschuk, Acting Minister of Culture and Information Policy Rostyslav Karandieiev, and other officials.

Also invited to the prize ceremony were military pressonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, and employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

The Taras Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine is a state award for the most outstanding works of literature and art, journalism, and publicism, which are the pinnacle of the spiritual heritage of the Ukrainian people, affirm high humanistic ideals, enrich the historical memory of the people, their national consciousness and identity, aimed at state-building and democratization of Ukrainian society. This year, the prize amount is UAH 429,000 each.

The Vatican:

Our flag flies with two colors 🇺🇦!
White doesn't belong to us. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/5UgIOzzllP

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 9, 2024

And course, it's again the victim and the defender that suddenly must have 'courage of the white flag of negotiations' — not the aggressor and not the murderer.

Of course, because it's much easier to twist Ukraine's arms from some form of imagined high moral ground and profess…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 9, 2024

And course, it’s again the victim and the defender that suddenly must have ‘courage of the white flag of negotiations’ — not the aggressor and not the murderer.

Of course, because it’s much easier to twist Ukraine’s arms from some form of imagined high moral ground and profess oneself holier-than-thou.

It’s not Russia and Vladimir Putin that must immediately stop the biggest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler that continues for 10 years — it’s Ukraine that must roll over and voluntarily jump into a mass grave with a bullet in the back of its head to ‘make things simpler’.

So evangelic, so spiritually driving, so clairvoyant, so merciful.

We must have courage and allow the enemy to take our children and turn them into soldiers who will kill their own people – said the Pope
– We must have courage and allow the enemy to take away our children and kill their identity – said the Pope@Pontifex

— Volodymyr Demchenko (@brokenpixelua) March 9, 2024

You have to have courage and give up your life. End it. Said The Pope

— Volodymyr Demchenko (@brokenpixelua) March 9, 2024

Papa Francesco has also pissed off Patron!

Nope+ https://t.co/bOIuiyk1n6

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 10, 2024

Good job everybody!

Tatarigami provides a very well thought out and detailed response to why any negotiated agreement with Russia to end the war would not actually end the war.

Every now and then, I converse with people from political and analytical fields globally, particularly from Europe and the US. Eventually, our discussions turn to where the war should end and what should it look like. Some directly express concerns, suggesting that certain…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 9, 2024

Every now and then, I converse with people from political and analytical fields globally, particularly from Europe and the US. Eventually, our discussions turn to where the war should end and what should it look like. Some directly express concerns, suggesting that certain political circles legitimately ponder why Ukraine doesn’t just sign a peace deal with Russia if Russia can’t be defeated. This, of course, aligns with a Russian narrative portraying Russia as an undefeatable dove seeking peace, while Ukraine is depicted as a warmongering state.

Unfortunately, the truth is, even if we sign some sort of truce or peace accord, there would be absolutely no security guarantees to prevent Russia from regrouping and attempting to repeat its actions later. While some Western politicians and former officials publicly state that Ukraine should join NATO soon, these are often just words without substantial backing. Even if they would be backed by an official agreement, the violation of such promises doesn’t carry significant consequences beyond reputational damage.

In 2014, Ukraine was advised not to escalate against Russia in Crimea, leading to further escalation as it created a perception of Ukrainian weakness. Russia then attempted to replicate the scenario in Donbas. Our failure to liberate Donbas and the failure of the West to help only solidified Russian confidence in taking over Ukraine, eventually leading to the events of 2022. So, what exactly would prevent Russia from launching another offensive just a few years later?

I’ve also come across suggestions that if Ukraine were to sign a peace agreement, it would provide an opportunity to rearm and resupply its army. However, this raises another question for me – who and why would precisely arm Ukraine during peacetime, especially when in 2024 Ukraine is already facing challenges in securing foreign military aid? If anything, obtaining military assistance during a time of war for the right to exist seems more feasible than trying to secure the same volumes during peacetime.

Russians don’t just annex territories – they almost immediately erase Ukrainian presence in every dimension. They forcefully russify the local population, imprison, deport, or execute the most prominent pro-Ukrainian activists, leaders, and cultural symbols. They pillage crops, move industrial machinery from factories to Russia, or simply take over businesses and profit from them. While some may find it easy to suggest abandoning these people and signing a peace deal, we all know that after eight years of such policies in Donbas and Crimea, Russia has formed multiple corps and units from these people, later deploying most of their male population to invade Ukraine.

One might say, “Okay, well, good luck then, you can handle it on your own, just without our aid.” I don’t think that we will eventually reach that point, but it’s very naive to think that this would bring an end to the war. After all, Ukraine held its defenses and repelled the Russian invasion during the first months without any substantial Western aid. Now, I understand that the situation has changed since then, and the realities on the battleground are different, but even if the frontline collapses in such events, it won’t result in Ukraine simply giving up – instead, it will lead to guerrilla warfare with assassinations, sabotages, and typical methods associated with guerilla warfare.
Europe would end up with a persistent bleeding spot, populated with millions of angry people who feel unjust, radicalized, marginalized, betrayed, and filled with resentment.

Ukraine isn’t fighting this war out of a desire to fight or to seize someone else’s territory or people. Ukraine is compelled to fight by an invader, and realistically, the only means to halt this war is to restrain Russian imperialistic ambitions in Ukraine and Europe at large. Concessions can’t achieve this goal.

Exhibit A:

Putin says Russia and Ukraine "will be reunited, at least at the spiritual level – it's inevitable," meaning Ukraine can't have an identity distinct from Russia's.

Then he says "nationalism poisons many peoples," which from him sounds like "Cocaine is a hell of a drug" pic.twitter.com/AgW39dL8Po

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 6, 2024

Britain:

UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps has teased confirmation that Iran has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles.

The Defence Secretary all-but confirmed reports of Tehran’s missile shipments in an interview with The House magazine.

“Whether it’s ballistic missiles, or the Shahed drones that they supplied Russia with, we’ve seen that if there’s struggle in the world, often Iran are egging it on, or helping to supply the food chain in this case. They are a bad influence, not just on their region, but in this case in Europe as well,” he said.

Iran officially denied reports last month that it had provided Russia with surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to support Putin’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Iran had supplied around 400 missiles in total to Russia, according to six sources quoted by Reuters. The shipments were said to have included Fateh-110 short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, which is capable of striking targets at a distance of between 186 and 435 miles.

Speaking to The House, Shapps said there was a limit on what he could divulge about the shipments but gave a clear indication that long-range missiles were included. Sources close to the Defence Secretary did not challenge the inference that the Reuters report was correct.

Iran’s defence ministry and the Revolutionary Guards, which oversees Iran’s ballistic missile programme, declined to comment when news of the deal was initially reported.

According to one source quoted by Reuters, the shipments of missiles began in early January following a deal brokered last year between Iranian and Russian military and security officials in Tehran and Moscow.

One Iranian military official said four shipments of missiles had already been sent, with more coming in the new few weeks. Another senior Iranian official said some of the missiles were flown to Russia by plane, and others sent by ship via the Caspian Sea.

“There will be more shipments,” the second Iranian official said to the news agency. “There is no reason to hide it. We are allowed to export weapons to any country that we wish to.”

Washington, DC:

I’ve just spent a week in Ukraine, mainly between Odesa & Kyiv.

There is serious concern about Congress not passing more aid.

People in DC might think delaying aid is a political game, but here in Ukraine it’s a matter of life or death and national survival. 🚨 WAKE UP!! pic.twitter.com/Dd2DMUSi68

— Luke Coffey (@LukeDCoffey) March 9, 2024

Also, Washington DC:

The New York Times has reported that senior US defense and national security officials are unhappy with how Ukraine is defending itself.

More than two years into their wartime alliance, the bond between the United States and Ukraine is showing signs of wear and tear, giving way to mutual frustration and a feeling that the relationship might be stuck in a bit of a rut.

It is the stuff that often strains relationships — finances, different priorities and complaints about not being heard.

For the Pentagon, the exasperation comes down to a single, recurring issue: American military strategists, including Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, believe that Ukraine needs to concentrate its forces on one big fight at a time. Instead, President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has vowed to drive Russia out of every inch of Ukraine, expends his forces in battles for towns that U.S. officials say lack strategic value.

The most recent example involved the battle for the eastern city of Avdiivka, which fell to Russia last month. U.S. officials say Ukraine defended Avdiivka too long and at too great a cost.

For its part, Ukraine is increasingly disheartened that American political paralysis has resulted in shortages of ammunition for troops on the front. As each day goes by without a fresh supply of munitions and artillery, and Ukrainian crews ration the shells they have, morale is suffering.

Mr. Zelensky promised a “renewal” of Ukraine’s military in its stagnant campaign against Russia when he dismissed his commanding general, Valery Zaluzhny, last month and named Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of his ground forces, to replace him.

Gen. Charles Q. Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was on the phone with General Syrsky the next day, as officials in the Biden administration tried to figure out whether they had found an ally in the Ukrainian military for what they see as the most likely route to success.

The jury is still out. Some officials say General Syrsky may be more in sync with Mr. Zelensky than his predecessor.

“Zelensky has made a much more unified chain of command responsive to his leadership as well as advice from outside,” said Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who heads the Armed Services Committee and recently visited Ukraine.

Two other officials, however, worried whether the new military chief would be willing to push his boss in a direction he did not want to go.

Even now, months after a counteroffensive that failed because Ukraine, in the eyes of the Pentagon, did not take its advice, Kyiv is still too often unwilling to listen.

White House and Ukrainian officials both say that the failure of Congress so far to pass an emergency aid bill including $60.1 billion for Ukraine has already undermined the fight on the ground. The measure would rush badly needed artillery ammunition and air defense interceptors to Ukrainian forces.

But the Ukrainians have other frustrations with the United States. They have frequently complained that the Biden administration has been slow to approve advanced weapons systems that could cross perceived Russian red lines, from fighter jets to long-range missiles.

“We’ve been fiddling while Rome burns,” Emily Harding, a former American intelligence official, said during a Ukraine discussion last month at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If we had not been dithering early on,” she added, “if we had actually provided the things that we should have provided, we would have been much better off now.”

In the basement of what used to be a small farmhouse, the shock wave of explosions above ground distinctly changed the air pressure in the cramped, cold room, where a Ukrainian soldier was busily adjusting drone equipment.

“The reasons the Russians can advance is because of the lack of ammunition,” said the soldier, who went by the call sign D.J. in keeping with military protocols. He added that he was frustrated by U.S. inaction, attributing the fall of Avdiivka to the United States’ failure to supply aid.

But a Ukrainian commander, who went by the call sign Chef, was far more forgiving. Had it not been for the United States, Ukrainian forces would still be trying to push the Russians out of Kyiv.

Neither the Americans nor the Ukrainians are heading for exit doors. Their commitment remains solid, as each side needs the other. The U.S. intelligence community still provides a substantial amount of real-time information to Ukraine’s military on Russian command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in Russian military lines. The Pentagon still hosts monthly Contact Group meetings to prod Ukraine’s partners to provide money, weapons and ammunition.

Perhaps most of all for the Biden administration, Ukraine is hollowing out the army of one of America’s biggest foes.

U.S. estimates put the number of Russian troops killed or wounded since the war started at around a staggering 350,000, according to American officials. Russia has also lost huge amounts of equipment; some 2,200 tanks out of 3,500 have been destroyed along with one-third of its armored vehicles, according to a congressional staff member who saw an intelligence assessment.

Even Russia’s victory in Avdiivka has come with considerable cost: A pro-war Russian military blogger said in a post that Russia had lost 16,000 men and 300 armored vehicles in its assault. (The blogger, Andrei Morozov, deleted the post late last month after what he said was a campaign of intimidation against him. He died the next day.)

“At the end of the day, make no mistake: Even those generals who might be frustrated with Ukraine are at the same time looking at the Russian casualties reports and equipment losses and they’re smiling,” said Dale Buckner, a former Army colonel who is the chief executive of Global Guardian, a U.S.-based security firm.

But Avdiivka was the kind of fight that American war planners would have preferred Ukraine to handle differently.

A former American commander with close ties to the Ukrainian armed forces said there was no reason to hold the city as long as Ukrainian forces did except to bleed Russia of more troops and equipment — sacrifices Moscow was more than willing to accept to claim victory.

Even after it became clear that Russian forces, with larger reinforcements, would prevail, Ukraine held out, rather than conduct a strategic withdrawal, U.S. officials said.

As a result, American frustration levels were high with the Ukrainians, especially Mr. Zelensky and the political leadership, according to a senior Western military official and the former U.S. commander. But the Biden administration has said Mr. Zelensky, as commander in chief, makes the call.

Ultimately, Ukraine’s chaotic retreat was a mistake, the former U.S. commander said. Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have disappeared or been captured by the advancing Russian units, according to Western officials.

The disagreement over Avdiivka was a mirror image in reverse of Washington’s frustrations with the Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer. In that case, Mr. Austin and other American officials urged Ukraine to focus its assault on one main effort along the 600-mile front line and press to break through Russian fortifications there.

U.S. officials believed that General Zaluzhny had agreed with the American advice but that he could not convince his president. So instead of a single defining fight, Kyiv split up its troops, sending some to the east and some to other fronts, including in the south.

The counteroffensive failed. At the Pentagon, some officials say they do not consider last summer’s efforts to have been a counteroffensive at all.

“We say in the military, when you seek to attack everywhere, you can end up attacking nowhere — because your forces are spread too thin,” said James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral and the former supreme allied commander for Europe. “The Pentagon sees this as a mistake and will continue to offer advice to the Ukrainians along these lines.”

“The U.S. side is frustrated because they give military advice and it doesn’t feel like it’s being taken,” said Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia who is now the executive director of the McCain Institute. “But the Ukrainians don’t like being micromanaged.”

On top of that, Dr. Farkas said, “our political system is shockingly unreliable right now.”

Pentagon officials are still giving advice on the military campaign they would like to see in 2024. Three U.S. military officials said in interviews that the United States wanted Ukraine to concentrate long-range strikes on “putting Crimea at risk,” a phrase that translates into attacking the Russian “land bridge” that traverses southern Ukraine and connects Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, which President Vladimir V. Putin seized in 2014.

Russian troops use the land bridge for resupply and logistics, and it is critical for their efforts in southern Ukraine and Crimea.

But again, Ukrainian frustration with American congressional paralysis is at play.

Western officials and military experts have warned that without U.S. assistance, a cascading collapse along the front is a real possibility this year.

More at the link.

I will remind everyone that the United States has not won a war, nor been able to achieve its strategic objectives in any military operation below the threshold of interstate war, since World War II.

The US’s strategy toward dealing with Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine has been too timid by more than half. It has also been inconsistent. That strategy is created by the Biden administration. When you combine the strategic timidity and inconsistency with the Republican bad faith in the Senate and the House, we get where we’re at now. A bunch of US senior military and national security leaders who have never won a war or led US forces in achieving American strategic objectives during any military operation below the threshold of interstate war hectoring Ukraine over the latter not fighting their war of defense the way the former would like all while the promises to never abandon the Ukrainians ring every more hollow.

Speaking of strategic timidity, Germany what you got for us?

German ambassador to UK says “Scholz was being careful about how to increase support to Ukraine, so as not to cause "consequences we all don't want to see"…If Germany were to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine it would create "potential for escalation"…’ https://t.co/kUtkCKAebF

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 6, 2024

From the BBC: (emphasis mine)

The German ambassador to the UK has said there is “no need to apologise” for security breaches which led to a call between top army officials being leaked by Russian sources.

Miguel Berger told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme one of the participants had likely dialled in via an insecure line.

As a result, Russia was able to intercept the call, he said.

In the audio, officials can be heard discussing details of alleged British operations on the ground in Ukraine.

Mr Berger hit back at criticism by former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who said Germany was “pretty penetrated by Russian intelligence” and “neither secure nor reliable”.

“It is extremely unhelpful what Ben Wallace has done,” Mr Berger said.

“This is what Russia wants.”

The publication of the call was a Russian “hybrid attack”, he added.

In the leaked recording, four senior German military officers are seemingly heard discussing the prospect of Ukraine using German-made Taurus cruise missiles to hit the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to the Crimean peninsula, which was illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly ruled out sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Mr Berger said Mr Scholz was being careful about how to increase support to Ukraine, so as not to cause “consequences we all don’t want to see”.

If Germany were to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine it would create “potential for escalation”, he said.

The missiles have a range of around 500km (300 miles) – enough to potentially hit Russian territory.

Ambassador Berger said allies’ focus needed to be on supplying enough ammunition to Ukraine.

Kyiv has said it is losing ground to Russian forces in part because of diminishing ammunition supplies.

I’d like to emphasize this part as a best practice:

“I think that is a good lesson for everybody: never use hotel internet if you want to do a secure call,” Mr Berger advised listeners of the Today programme.

Ya think?

The French are rightly concerned:

From French briefings in Munich, though I'm also told they did not rule out the prospect of more serious setbacks.https://t.co/YKFxAzotb3

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 7, 2024

Russia’s information war:

Russia is using social media to wage a war against the West. We're all participants in that war, and we're destroying each other as a result. Forcing Ukraine to capitulate won't stop Moscow⬇️https://t.co/OOHgm3gHv3

— Dr. Ian Garner (@irgarner) March 9, 2024

Dr. Garner writing at Foreign Policy:

A few weeks ago, a Russian autocrat addressed millions of Western citizens in a propaganda event that would have been unthinkable a generation ago—yet is so normal today as to be almost unremarkable. Tucker Carlson’s interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin has now been viewed more than 120 million times on YouTube and X, formerly known as Twitter. Despite the tedium of Putin’s two-hour-long lecture about an imaginary Russian and Ukrainian history, the streaming and promotion of the interview by Western platforms is only the latest successful foray in Russia’s information war against the West, which Moscow is showing every sign of winning. And in this war, the Kremlin is not just weaponizing social media, but relying on Westerners themselves to spread its messages far and wide.

A decade into Russia’s all-out information war, the social media companies seem to have forgotten their promises to act after the 2016 U.S. presidential election interference scandal, when Russian-sponsored posts reached 126 million Americans on Facebook alone. Policymakers not only seem oblivious to the full breadth and scope of Russia’s information war, but fears about stifling freedom of speech and contributing to political polarization have led them and the social media companies to largely refrain from any action to stop Russia’s ongoing campaign.

This inaction comes amid growing signs of Russian influence operations that have deeply penetrated Western politics and society. Dozens—if not hundreds or more—of Russian agents have been observed everywhere from English towns to Canadian universities. Many of these agents are low-level and appear to achieve little individually, but occasionally they penetrate institutions, companies, and governments. Meanwhile, a flood of money props up Moscow’s ambitions, including hundreds of millions of dollars the Kremlin is pouring into influencing elections, with some of that money covertly (and overtly) funneled to political parties and individual politicians. For many decades, Western societies have been deluged with every sort of influence imaginable.

While there have been some countermeasures since the start of Russia’s latest war—including the United States and European Union shutting off access to Russian media networks such as RT and Sputnik in early 2022—these small, ineffective steps are the equivalent of information war virtue signaling. They do not fundamentally change Western governments’ lack of any coherent approach to the many vectors of Russian disinformation and hybrid warfare. At the very moment when Kremlin narratives on social media are beginning to seriously undermine support for Ukraine, Western governments’ handle on the disinformation crisis seems to be getting weaker by the day.

For Putin’s Russia, “information-psychological warfare”—as a Russian military textbook calls it—is intended to “erode the morale and psychological spirit” of an enemy population. A central aspect of a wider war against the West, it is conducted online through relentless barrages of fake, real, and misrepresented news, through a cultivated network of witting and unwitting shills such as Carlson. The Kremlin’s messaging has an extraordinary reach: In the first year of the Ukraine war alone, posts by Kremlin-linked accounts were viewed at least 16 billion times by Westerners. Every one of those views is part of a full-spectrum attack against the West designed not just to undermine support for Ukraine, but to actively damage Western democratic systems.

Moscow launches its attacks using a playbook familiar to anyone who watched the disinformation campaigns linked to the 2014 invasion of Crimea and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Bots, trolls, targeted ad campaigns, fake news organizations, and doppelganger accounts of real Western politicians and pundits spread stories concocted in Moscow—or in St. Petersburg, where then-Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin ran an army of trolls posting on Western social media. If the specific technologies are new, Russia’s strategy of information warfare is not. During World War II, Soviet propagandist Ilya Ehrenburg memorably described the pen as “a weapon made not for anthologies, but for war.” From the early Bolshevik era to the end of the Cold War, his peers spent decades spreading disinformation abroad in hopes that countries targeted by Russia would be unable to “defend … themselves, their family, their community, and their country,” as Soviet journalist turned defector Yuri Bezmenov put it.

What is undoubtedly new is a polarized Western public’s enthusiasm for re-centering its own identity around Moscow’s narratives—and becoming an unwitting weapon in the information war. Take, for example, the QAnon movement, whose supporters have long gathered critical energy from talking points supplied and amplified by Moscow through social media. QAnon supporters espouse a range of grievances familiar from Russian propaganda: anti-LGBTQ+, anti-liberal, and especially anti-Ukraine sentiments. QAnon channels on the messaging app Telegram, for example, rapidly turned into fora for anti-Ukraine and pro-war sentiment.

While ordinary users are certain that they are merely speaking their minds, a domestic policy issue has ultimately turned into a vehicle for Moscow to exert influence over national security decisions. QAnon support has spread from the United States to countries across the West—and each group of adherents, regardless of location and platform, seems to espouse the same pro-Putin sentiments and the same skepticism about providing support for Ukraine.

Such phenomena are all too familiar, whether they relate to the U.S. presidential election influence scandal, to the constant reiteration of Moscow’s talking points about NATO, or to the web of useful idiots—from quasi-journalists to rappers—who seem to function as mouthpieces for the Kremlin by consistently spreading favorable narratives under the guise of asking questions or presenting two sides of a story.

Moscow also exploits non-Western networks, such as Telegram and TikTok, to its own advantage. Today, 14 percent of adult Americans regularly consume news from Chinese-owned TikTok, where thousands of fake accounts spread Russian talking points—and where Russian propagandists can count hundreds of thousands of followers. TikTok has occasionally revealed Russian bot networks, but its efforts to stop the spread of Kremlin-aligned content have been lackluster and ineffective. Millions of Americans hoover up material created by Moscow’s propagandists, bonding with influencers and other users who also share this material, constantly propagating Moscow’s viewpoint on Ukraine. TikTok’s unwillingness to cooperate on countering such disinformation has left U.S. lawmakers with little choice but to mull an outright ban of the network—and even then, that would largely be over China-related concerns, not because lawmakers recognize the crucial role TikTok plays for the Kremlin.

Even where they ostensibly have more control, U.S. policymakers have been unwilling to do much to stem the tide of pro-Russian propaganda. Since Elon Musk took over Twitter and renamed it X, the network has all but openly welcomed Russian influence campaigns onto its servers. The platform even hosts Kremlin-aligned neo-fascists such as Alexander Dugin, who uses it to spread his apocalyptic vision of the war in Ukraine to his 180,000 followers, including via discussion spaces in English. Hundreds of accounts—many belonging to ordinary Westerners—boost Dugin’s reach (and that of similar figures) by following him as well as liking or commenting on posts. X’s streaming and promotion of the Carlson interview and Musk’s own echoing of Russian talking points—such as highly specific claims about Ukraine using phrasing normally employed only by Russian officials—have come in for heavy criticism. But just as damaging are the smaller communities created around figures such as Dugin, where Western users do much to spread an anti-Ukraine message.

If anything, there are signs that governments are taking Russia’s influence campaigns less seriously today than in the past. The British government first stymied the release of a damning report on Russian interference in British politics—and once the report was released, it did little to act on the findings. In Washington, the Biden administration is scaling back its efforts to head off Russian disinformation. Flummoxed by a barrage of criticism reflecting freedom of speech concerns, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security shuttered its Disinformation Governance Board in August 2022, even as Americans were being barraged by an unprecedented wave of pro-war and anti-Ukraine propaganda on social media. Since then, the U.S. State Department’s parsimonious funding has chiefly gone to small-scale nongovernmental organizations offering fact-checking and disinformation tracking services—a drop in the bucket at best.

When Western governments do address foreign hybrid threats, such as cybersecurity and election interference, they are increasingly focused on China. And invariably, they still identify such threats merely as “influence” or “interference,” rather than as part of a larger, concerted military effort. Their responses thus mistakenly circumscribe Russia’s hybrid warfare as a discrete, restricted, and targeted policy of disruption. In reality, it is an ongoing, fluid, and broad phenomenon that invites continued violence.

There is much, much more at the link!

Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia:

Interesting details about the UAVs that attacked Taganrog in the Russian part of the special military operation zone last night. Appear to be similar to Shaheds. Difficult to intercept. pic.twitter.com/gNfft5Y0s3

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 9, 2024

/1. At night there was a drone attack on Taganrog, Russia. The attack was most likely carried out on an airport/factory where a Russian A-50 had previously been spotted. A-50 was spotted on the satellite imagery published by @cxemu and appeared on the airfield between 28-29th of… pic.twitter.com/YN1ZlpMiqW

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 9, 2024

/3. The Taganrog is located 140km from the frontline. Well in range of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. But as we see, for well-known reasons, the Russians feel quite comfortable to place such important and limiting equipment as the A-50 there. pic.twitter.com/8OB4e7Isyq

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 9, 2024

/5. The damaged area is located closer to the hangars gates.
Plus some photos of how the targeted hangar looks like. pic.twitter.com/TnhxfbMb0a

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 9, 2024

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have a new assessment for us to ponder. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

The Frontelligence Insight conducted a visual analysis of satellite imagery to assess the impact of a Ukrainian UAV attack on an aircraft repair facility in Taganrog, The imagery indeed validates the damage sustained by the facility.

Don't forget to like and share!

🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/JEcA4wAN1y

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 9, 2024

2/ A comparative analysis shows scorch marks on the roof of a building identified by our team as a Final Assembly Facility, where it was suspected Russians were conducting A-50 repairs. The day before the attack:

3/ Notably, the A-50 is absent in the imagery from March 8th and March 9th, leaving uncertainty about its presence in the airfield during the operation. Earlier images, disclosed by investigative journalists at @cxemu, showed an A-50 parked near the hangar on February 29th.

4/ If the drones managed to penetrate the roof, the payload in drones would be enough to cause damage to equipment, and aircraft inside. However, there are no visual indications of a significant fire inside the hangar, making it challenging to assess the extent of the damage 

5/ Further satellite imagery analysis shows that at least one S-300/400 battery was present at the airfield during the attack. Unless it serves as a decoy, this suggests the Ukrainian UAV’s ability to penetrate Russian air defense systems, even in proximity to strategic objects

6/ In summary, our team recognizes that the destruction or damage of the A-50 can’t be definitively concluded from this. Nonetheless, this remains a significant achievement for Ukraine due to the ability to bypass AD and target an important facility within Russian territory. 

7/ Consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support. As the war continues, public financial support is decreasing as well.

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

Goryachy Klyuch, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

They're going to put up a monument to Prigozhin and Utkin. They still remember them fondly.

But do they remember who killed them? pic.twitter.com/K1kmMnDbES

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 9, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

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— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 8, 2024

Open thread!