Foreign Policy

Dear Mr. Secretary General!

Ladies and Gentlemen!

I am grateful for the opportunity to address you today at the NATO Summit, which will be crucial and groundbreaking.

Today is really the beginning of a new history. Not just for NATO’s eastern flank, but for the entire Alliance. For the whole Euro-Atlantic community. In a time of extremely aggressive Kremlin, the world needs an extremely bold Alliance.

And I am sure that the next summit in a year will show the results of this summit and what the future of NATO will be. I am grateful once again for this opportunity, and my address to you at the next NATO summit, next year – with my direct participation, not this online format – will be a testament to our common victory. But next year could be a worse situation – if not only Ukraine, but also several other states, possibly members of the Alliance, come under fire from Russia. And then it will be our common failure – Ukraine and NATO.

You are all well aware of what Russia’s goals really are. For many years it has been threatening to start a war. Threatened – if Ukraine joins NATO. But Ukraine is not in NATO, and Russia’s full-scale war against our state has been ongoing for 126 days – after 8 years of war in Donbas. So why has everyone believed for decades that it was NATO that could provoke Russia into something by its actions?

Russia’s goals are known. They are obvious. The Russian leadership sees the world differently. Not like you. They see Lithuania, for example, not as a member of your Alliance, but as a republic of the Soviet Union. For us, it is an independent state and has long been a former republic of the USSR, for us it is the past, and they see it as a possible future, they want to enslave it again. They consider it that way. They see it that way. And the same goes for every country that is Russia’s neighbor. For every state that was once under Moscow’s influence.

Only now – at this summit – will you identify Russia as your main threat, but you have been an enemy for them for a really long time already. And the ideology of Russia is based on this, it is reflected one hundred percent in its propaganda, its task is to break you, to put pressure on you. And it is surprising that the work of propagandists, Russian television in some of your countries continues! This is not about freedom of speech. This is a concrete preparation of war against you, within your states.

And please look at our state – what it can lead to in yours! Russia’s tactics are very simple. It destroys everything – houses, shopping malls, schools, hospitals. More than 2,800 missiles since February 24, and the vast majority were aimed at civilian targets! What is it for? What are the bombs for? What are total artillery strikes for?

The Russian army is doing everything possible to force as many people as possible to leave their cities. So that there is nothing but ruins. And then the so-called “second army of the world” enters these cities – already empty and already dead. And it does not want to stop in Donbas or somewhere in the south of Ukraine, it wants to absorb city after city, all of us, and then all in Europe, whom the Russian leadership considers its property, not independent states. This is Russia’s real goal.

The question is – who is next for it? Moldova? Or the Baltic countries? Or Poland? The answer is – all of them.

The some goes, by the way, with the food crisis – with the blockade of Ukrainian ports, with the famine that Russia is provoking. What is the real target? You! The same! Hunger is a tool, a means. And its real goal is to put pressure on you, and it’s chaos, it’s new waves of migration to Europe.

Isn’t that the case with energy? Why is Russia pulling the gas noose? Why is it putting pressure on Europe? For you to ask. For you to be humiliated. For you to be completely dependent. So that you can be forced to give up your freedom, your democracy and your values – for the sake of certain interests of the Russian leadership.

We need to see the real goals of Russia. And if they were different, now there would be no desire of Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance – to get common security.

Ladies and Gentlemen!

While democracies were calling on the Russian leadership to have reason and morality, Russia was accumulating power and missiles. You, the democratic leaders, have urged it to respect international law, but tyrants understand force. And force only! And this is clearly seen in those areas of Ukraine where the Russian army has been severely rebuffed.

Ukraine commends the decision on the accession of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance. And it is very good that this has happened now – before Russia could start acting against these states as well. But is Russia doing anything against them now given this decision? No, and you see it.

The Russian leadership has publicly stated that the Leningrad streets taught them the rules of life. There, any attempts at dialogue and appeasement are perceived only as weakness and fear. There, you don’t make a phone call to anyone to talk when you have to hit back. There, you either hit or lose. This is exactly how the Russian state sees the world right now. And this vision cannot be ignored, its true goals cannot be ignored. You need to answer them. And I’m sure you all know how to respond.

In fact, our goals – the goals of Ukraine – are exactly the same as yours. We are interested in security and stability on the European continent and in the world. It is in our interest that the lives of nations are determined not by the infamous Munich speech of one leader, but by international law. We are interested in the absence of any “gray zones” and territories of total war, where there is nothing left but ruins. You are also interested in this.

Helping Ukraine end this war by winning on the battlefield now – that is, giving a really strong answer to what Russia is doing – is what we and each of your states and the whole Alliance, the whole Euro-Atlantic community need. If you really identify Russia as your threat, your main threat, you must fully support its main – the first – target. This is not a war of Russia only against Ukraine, this is a war for the right to dictate conditions in Europe. For what the future world order will be like. That is why it is absolutely necessary to support Ukraine right now with weapons, finances and political sanctions against Russia that will stop its ability to pay for the war.

Ukraine needs modern missile and air defense – and you have these systems. By providing them to us, you can completely break Russia’s tactics to destroy cities and terrorize the civilian population of Ukraine. This is a fundamental thing. The distance from Kyiv to Madrid is less than the range of the missiles used against us today. Can one state respond to such a threat without the help of partners? You can provide this help. And we are grateful for the help you have already given.

Russia relies primarily on artillery on the battlefield. On artillery superiority. Dozens of times more strikes than we currently can respond with. Ukraine has already received modern artillery systems – and I am very grateful to you. But the war continues and it is a war in which artillery is of great importance. The war should not drag on. To prevent this, we need to break the Russian artillery advantage – a significant advantage, we need much more such modern systems, modern artillery.

Financial support for Ukraine is no less important than aid with weapons. Russia still receives billions every day – and spends them on the war. We have a multibillion-dollar deficit – we do not have oil and gas, which could cover it. We need about $ 5 billion a month – you know that, and that’s a fundamental thing as well. This is exactly what is needed for defense and protection.

And we need a new understanding of NATO’s eastern flank. It is possible to get rid of the “gray zone” and guarantee security only together with Ukraine. Just think about one fact now: today, a non-NATO country, albeit with your support, has been holding back a state that you all officially identify as your main threat for more than four months. We are deterring Russia from destroying us and from destroying you.

Ladies and Gentlemen!

Russia must be isolated. It should not be in those international structures it wants to destroy. There should be no dialogues that don’t make sense until it starts looking for that dialogue itself. It must seek dialogue itself, itself, and therefore seek peace. And, for the sake of peace, the understanding of NATO’s eastern flank must be revised. Is it a coincidence that all Allies in the east, all our neighbors, stand for Ukraine’s membership in NATO? No, this is not a coincidence. This is logic. This is the understanding of life in our region.

NATO’s open door policy should not resemble the old Kyiv metro turnstiles: they are open, and when you approach, the turnstiles close until you pay. Hasn’t Ukraine paid enough yet? Is our contribution to the defense of Europe and the whole civilization still insufficient? What else is needed then?

I can say what we need: we need security guarantees, and you have to find a place for Ukraine in the common security space.

There will be either urgent help for Ukraine, which is enough to win, or Russia’s postponed war with you.

You are now adopting the strategy of the Alliance – and this is first and foremost a strategy for the security of your societies, your states. Strategy for ten years. 126 days of full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Cruise missiles, torture, children murdered, women raped… We do not have 10 years. Do you have them? Are you really sure about that?

Thanks again for the invitation.

Thank you very much for your attention.

Glory to Ukraine!

Before we move on to his nightly address, I want to take a moment to reflect a bit on President Zelenskyy’s address to the NATO summit. This is, as far as I remember, the most clear eyed, realistic as opposed to realpolitik, publicly statement by any national or international leader regarding Russia and its behavior. In fact this may be the best speech I’ve heard on foreign policy, national security policy, and geo-strategy I have heard a national leader give in my lifetime. In his address, President Zelenskyy has clearly delineated the problem, how Russia is politically and socially organized and the negative effects of that organization on the international system, clearly defined what it will take to meet the Russian threat, and then, for good measure, clearly made sure to emphasize to the NATO leaders in attendance that right now their active defense against Russia is being provided not by a NATO member, not by a superpower, not by a regional power, but by Ukraine!

Here’s his address to the Ukrainian people from earlier this evening:

And here’s the English transcript (emphasis mine):

Ukrainians!

Our defenders!

A week ago, our country received the status of a candidate for membership in the European Union, and today another step has been taken on the path to membership. A very practical step. “Transport visa-free regime” was signed. This is an agreement that removes barriers for Ukrainian carriers. You no longer have to wait for permits for freight transportation. And this will significantly increase the export of Ukrainian goods by road transport.

This is exactly the task of our state now – not to lose a single week in relations with the European Union. Despite this war, despite all the difficulties, we will constantly do what brings us closer to full membership in the European Union.

By the way, yesterday I held a special meeting – a big meeting including 28 participants representing the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government. The state will have a relevant document – a clear map of actions that can be checked by any citizen of Ukraine: what needs to be done by state institutions so that we fulfill our part of the job on the path to the European Union. This document will be presented on July 1.

I took part in the NATO summit this morning. This is a special summit. A summit of transformation. The Alliance is changing its strategy in response to Russia’s aggressive anti-European policies and Russia’s war against our country. It is obvious that it is impossible to guarantee security in Europe in such conditions without our state. And we will do everything to transform this obvious nature into concrete decisions – for Ukraine, for the Alliance. We need clear security guarantees – we will have them, and today I called on NATO members to find a format of decisions that would allow for Ukraine’s full participation in our common European security architecture. I called on NATO countries to speed up the supply of missile defense systems to Ukraine and significantly increase the pressure on the terrorist state.

Today’s Russian strike alone at the city of Mykolaiv – 10 missiles at once, and all of them were aimed at civilian targets – proves for absolutely everyone in the world that the pressure on Russia is not enough. One of these missiles, a hypersonic anti-ship missile “Onyx”, destroyed an ordinary five-story building. Dismantling of the debris continued over the day. As of now, five people are known to have been killed. There were also strikes at Ochakiv, Dnipro, the Russian shelling of the Kharkiv region, Sumy region, Donbas. Lysychansk, Avdiivka, communities in the Bakhmut direction – the situation there remains extremely brutal, very difficult. We are doing everything we can to provide our military with modern artillery systems to respond properly to the occupiers.

Russia squeezed out the message of Syria about the alleged recognition of the occupation structures in Donbas as alleged states. This is an empty story. And in that case, there will be no more relations between Ukraine and Syria, and the pressure of sanctions against Syria will be even greater.

For the first time in all the years of independence, the President of Indonesia, a very influential state that may suffer significantly from the food crisis provoked by Russia, paid a visit to Kyiv today. Therefore, these were important negotiations that opened for Ukraine another strategic direction of relations with Asia.

One of the most famous businessmen in the world, Richard Branson, also visited Ukraine. He is more than just an entrepreneur. He is a visionary, a man who works for progress and the best technology for all mankind. His arrival in Ukraine right now – and he visited Hostomel, where he discussed, in particular, the possibility of rebuilding the airport and building our “Mriya”, the world’s largest aircraft – is a very strong signal to everyone in the world that Ukraine will definitely withstand this war. And I am grateful to Mr. Branson for his willingness to join the post-war reconstruction of our country.

And another optimistic and very important news: 144 Ukrainian warriors were returned home from Russian captivity. 59 soldiers of the National Guard, 30 – Navy; 28 – army, 17 border guards, 9 territorial defense soldiers, 1 policeman. The oldest of the liberated is 65 years old, the youngest is 19. In particular, 95 Azovstal defenders return home. I am grateful to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and to everyone who worked for this result. But let’s talk about this later. We will do everything to bring every Ukrainian man and woman home. Thank you again.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here are the details on the returned prisoners of war:

Ukraine announces biggest POW swap since Feb. 24: 144 Ukrainian troops for 144 Russian forces. Group includes 95 Azovstal defenders, 43 of which are Azov Regiment.

Full breakdown:
59 Nat'l Guard
30 Marines
28 Army
17 Border Guards
9 Territorial defense
1 Nat'l Police officer https://t.co/fd1Aw3G0Mm

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 29, 2022

And here’s more on the attack on Mykolaiv:

Russian missile hit the residential building in Mykolayiv. It happened today’s morning when the whole families were sleeping in their beds. #ArmUkraineNow pic.twitter.com/s86P7TwcFP

— Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) June 29, 2022

Here’s today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD: (emphasis mine)

The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on June 29, 2022

The one hundred twenty sixth (126) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.

A large-scale exchange of prisoners took place, thanks to which 144 Ukrainian defenders returned home. Among them are 95 Azovstal defenders.

In the Volyn and Polissya areas, as part of the exercises, the military commissariats of the republic of belarus are inspecting the assigned composition and the possibility of mobilization in certain regions.

In the Siversky direction, the enemy continues to provide enhanced protection of the Ukrainian-russian border. In addition, the aggressor fired on civilian and military infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Turya and Luhivka in the Sumy region. Inflicted an air strike on the settlement of Uhroidy.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel artillery and jet artillery at the settlements of Kharkiv, Bazaliyivka, Pryshyb, Shestakove, Ruska Lozova, Verkhniy Saltiv, Ivanivka, and Zamulivka.

In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy regroups troops and holds previously occupied frontiers. Shelling was recorded in the areas of Dolyna, Bohorodychne, Mykilske, Hrushuvakha and Dovhenke settlements. The occupiers also launched an air strike near Husarivka.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy, with the support of artillery, tries to block the city of Lysychansk and take control of the section of the highway Lysychansk – Bakhmut. It fired on civilian and military infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Lysychansk, Verkhnokamyanka, Siversk, and in an air strike on the area of the Lysychansk Oil Refinery. It supported sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the area of Verkhnyokamyanka to support the offensive. Ukrainian soldiers found and neutralized them. The remnants of the occupiers’ DRG left.

In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy did not conduct active hostilities, firing artillery at the Tetyanivka area.

In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy fired at the positions of our troops with artillery of various calibers near Klinove, Rozdolivka, Vyimka and Ivano-Daryivka. It struck an air strike near the village of Vidrodzenna. It tried to improve the tactical situation in the area of the settlement of Spirne by offensive actions, was unsuccessful, and withdrew. Our soldiers neutralized the enemy’s sabotage and reconnaissance group near Berestove.

In the Avdiivka, Kurakhiv, Novopavliv and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy fired mortars, barrel and jet artillery at our positions in the areas of the settlements of Avdiivka, Vesele, Pavlivka, Bilohirya, Inzhenerne, Olhivske, Preobrazhenka, and Huliaipilske. In addition, the russian occupiers launched airstrikes on civilian infrastructure near Orikhove and Scherbaky.

In the South Buh direction, the enemy carried out systematic shelling of civilian and military infrastructure with barrel artillery and jet artillery, and regrouped troops.

In the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, the occupying power continues to carry out measures of the administrative-police regime. The collection of personal information of local residents, compulsory certification and ban on the population to enter the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities are underway.

Some units of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, which were withdrawn from the territory of Ukraine to regain combat capability, are not able to replenish their units in time due to the reluctance of personnel to take part in the war against Ukraine. Personnel who refused to take part in the war are released, there are attempts to prosecute such persons.

Our units continue to perform missile and artillery fire tasks in certain areas and beat the occupiers in close combat.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:

And here’s their updated map for today:

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent analysis and updated map of the battle in the Donbas:

SIEVERODONETSK AXIS / 0100 UTC 30 JUN / Note: New Map Projection. UKR forces are likely to fall back under pressure from Lysychansk. It is assessed that RU will continue advancing north on the P-66 HWY axis, further constricting UKR’s holdings. pic.twitter.com/pBRD17hVMx

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 30, 2022

As was mentioned, NATO debuted their new and updated strategy concept today.

The Strategic Concept is a key document for the Alliance. It reaffirms NATO’s values and purpose, and provides a collective assessment of the security environment. It also drives NATO’s strategic adaptation and guides its future political and military development.

The Strategic Concept is reviewed and updated regularly. Since the end of the Cold War, it has been updated approximately every 10 years to take account of changes to the global security environment and to make sure the Alliance is prepared for the future.

The world has fundamentally changed in the past decade and strategic competition is rising, so the time has come to update the Strategic Concept. The last Strategic Concept was adopted at the Lisbon Summit in 2010; the new one will build on elements of the 2010 Concept that are still relevant.

The US has also announced a new expeditionary force posture for eastern Europe.

At the summit, Biden said he will increase from four to six the number of U.S. destroyers based at Rota Naval Base, Spain. “In Poland, we’re going to establish a permanent headquarters of the U.S. 5th Army Corps and strengthen NATO interoperability across the entire eastern flank,” he said.

The Army’s V Corps headquarters will be a forward command post, an Army garrison headquarters, and a field support battalion, said DOD officials traveling with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, who is also attending the summit. The forces will improve command and control capabilities, interoperability with NATO, and management of prepositioned equipment.

Poland has been a steadfast ally and enabler of many of the alliance’s moves, officials said. The United States will also maintain the substantial rotational force presence in Poland, including an armored brigade combat team, a combat aviation brigade element, and a division headquarters element. This enables DOD to deploy combat forces up and down the eastern flank, officials said.

In Romania, the United States will position a rotational brigade combat team. This additional brigade will also maintain the ability to deploy subordinate elements. The U.S. will also enhance its rotational deployments in the Baltic republics. These include armored, aviation, air defense and special operations forces.

The U.S. military will also maintain a persistent, heel-to-toe presence in the region and will intensify training with Baltic allies to maintain combat-credible capabilities, officials said.

Biden also announced deployment of two additional F-35 squadrons to RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom. These fifth-generation fighters will add to the air support for NATO forces throughout Europe.

The president said he will also deploy additional air defense, logistics and engineer assets in Germany and add air defense capabilities to forces in Italy.

Much more at the link!

Your daily Patron!

He recorded his own address to the NATO summit!

@patron__dsns

Кормом не корміть, дайте гау-гаубицю! #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні

♬ ГАВГАВБИЦЬ – yoxden

The video’s caption states:

Do not feed with food, give me a howitzer! #pespatron #patrondsns #slavaukraini

Open thread!

Ukrainians!

All our defenders!

I have just taken part in a special meeting of the UN Security Council convened at the request of Ukraine. Convened by Albania – this state presides in the Security Council. We have taken advantage of all international levers to bring Russia to justice for state terrorism. For everything done by the Russian army against Ukrainians in Kremenchuk, in Ochakiv, in Lysychansk, in Kharkiv, in Dnipro, in many, many other cities of Ukraine. As of this evening, the total number of Russian missiles that have hit our cities is already 2,811. And there are many more air bombs, many artillery shells…

The UN Security Council today stood in silence to commemorate all Ukrainians killed by the Russian army on our land. The members of the Russian delegation looked at everyone present in the Security Council and also decided to stand up – just so as not to look like outright murderers. But everyone knows that it is Russian terror, it is the Russian state that is killing innocent people in this war waged against the Ukrainian people.

I called on the UN to use the existing mechanisms of the Charter to stop Russian manipulation of the Organization’s structures and to set up a special tribunal to investigate the actions of the Russian occupiers on Ukrainian soil.

Ukraine’s law enforcement and intelligence agencies are doing their best to identify all Russian servicemen responsible for the terror against our cities. The names, faces and all information about each of these terrorists will be known to the world. None of them will be able to avoid responsibility, and personal sanctions will not be enough for these people. A sentence and imprisonment are the minimum they deserve.

And I wish to say separately about the responsibility of those Russian propagandists who lie about this terror, who are trying to justify the actions of the Russian army. Each of you will also be punished. We have all the evidence of what the Russian troops are doing against our people.

Today, I want to end this address with one such piece of evidence – so that no one dares to deceive about the missile strike at the shopping mall in Kremenchuk. The Russian missile hit this very object, purposefully. Obviously, that was the order. It is obvious that Russian assassins received such coordinates for this missile. They wanted to kill as many people as possible in a peaceful city, in a regular shopping mall. Here is what happened in Kremenchuk:

(Video)

And for this act of state terrorism, as for all others, Russia will be responsible. On the battlefield in Ukraine, by the strengthening of sanctions and, of course, in the tribunal.

I am grateful to everyone who defends Ukraine. Today I signed a new decree on awarding our heroes. 314 more combatants were awarded state awards.

Eternal glory to our defenders!

Glory to Ukraine!

As of now there is no operational update from Ukraine’s MOD posted.

There was also no DOD background briefing today.

Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here’s their updated map for today:

As you can see there’s still not a lot of movement at the macro level. In the comments last night YY_Sima Qian asked if we could do some map comparisons over the last couple of weeks. This is a great idea. So you’ve got today’s map above and below we’ve got from – top to bottom – yesterday’s, 22 June, 19 June, 12 June, 8 June, 1 June, and 31 May.

I hope that seeing them one above the next helps you all visualize just how stable the lines are at the macro level over the past month. Where you actually see movement, which is Ukraine attritting the Russians and pushing them back, is in the south around/near/in Kherson, which isn’t getting a lot of coverage because all the reporters up near Sievierodonetsk.

We have some additional footage from the strike on the shopping mall yesterday. Here is specifically the clip that President Zelenskyy highlighted in his address:

⚡️Zelensky shows video of deadly missile strike on Kremenchuk shopping mall.

In his nightly address, President Volodymyr Zelensky showed a video of a Russian missile strike on a crowded shopping mall in Ukraine's central city of Kremenchuk. pic.twitter.com/rJik8HpsJz

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 28, 2022

And here’s multiple different video streams of the effects of the strike from a park adjacent to the Amstor mall in Kremenchuck. As far as I can tell no one in the video is injured. You can, however, actually see the blast wave in several of the clips.

The moment of the explosion after the missile attack on the Amstor mall in Kremenchuk. pic.twitter.com/jwRavuyqtX

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) June 28, 2022

And Norway has stepped up with an important addition to Ukraine’s arsenal:

THANK NORWAY: The US will transfer to Ukraine the Norwegian Advanced Surface to Air Missile System (NASAMS). This networked SAM complex 'ground launches’ state of the art AMRAAM air-to-air missiles– the same ones used by F-22, F-35, F-15 and F-18 fighters. pic.twitter.com/PTPz7Wrpnz

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 28, 2022

Apparently Finland and Sweden came to terms with Turkey, which has resulted in Turkey lifting its threat to block their ascension into NATO. The price, as is always the case when dealing with Erdogan, will be paid by the Kurds.

Here are the things Turkey got:
• Sweden/Finland will lift its arms embargo
• Both will support Turkey on PKK, stop support to YPG
• They will amend their laws on terrorism
• They will share Intel with each other
• They will extradite terror suspects 1/

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) June 28, 2022

HERE IS THE JOINT DECLARATION

• Sweden and Finland confirm that there are no arms embargoes against Turkey. pic.twitter.com/gMa0LgQHJO

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) June 28, 2022

All of this was to help Erdogan shore up his standing ahead of his facing reelection.

Your daily Patron!

Ukraine’s most famous de-mining dog, Patron, starting his next mission. pic.twitter.com/h54hmnOEWf

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 26, 2022

And here’s Chapa!

play with the babies and enjoy Parmesan.
She performed her first preventive combat mission before the International Children's Day, where she was responsible for playing with displaced children theirs anti-stress and good mood.

— TwoHappyDachshunds (@TwoHappyDachs) June 28, 2022

And here’s a video from Patron’s official TikTok page!

@patron__dsns

@ptushkevich 🥰 #песпатрон #патрон #славаукраїні

♬ Rocky: Eye of the Tiger – Best Movie Soundtracks

Open thread!

This address is without greetings.

Today’s Russian strike at a shopping mall in Kremenchuk is one of the most defiant terrorist attacks in European history. A peaceful city, an ordinary shopping mall with women, children, ordinary civilians inside… Before the air alarm there were about a thousand people. Fortunately, as far as we know at this time, many people managed to get out in time. They were taken out in time. But there were still people inside: staff, some visitors…

Only totally insane terrorists, who should have no place on earth, can strike missiles at such an object. And this is not an off-target missile strike, this is a calculated Russian strike – exactly at this shopping mall.

It is not yet possible to establish the number of victims for now. A fire broke out in an area of more than 10 thousand square meters. The rescue operation continues, but we must be aware that the losses may be significant. As of now, we know about 12 dead and 24 wounded. We are establishing the number of people under the rubble.

All the wounded will be provided with all the necessary assistance – Kyiv doctors have already left for Kremenchuk. The Minister of Internal Affairs is already there, he will coordinate all the necessary actions.

My condolences to the families and friends of those killed in this terrible terrorist attack.

And I ask each and every one – whenever you hear the air alarm siren, go to the shelter. Necessarily. Don’t ignore it. Russia will stop at nothing.

This morning, I appealed to the United States to recognize Russia as a state that sponsors terrorism. The relevant resolution is approved by the US Senate Committee, and the legal decision can be adopted by the Department of State. And such a decision is clearly needed, and it must be supported by the entire democratic world. I told this to the participants of the G7 Summit, which took place in Germany.

As of today, Russia has used almost 2,800 different cruise missiles against Ukraine. The number of air bombs and MLRS rockets hitting our cities simply cannot be counted. There were hundreds of thousands of them in the four months of the war. This is nothing but terror.

Another brutal shelling of Kharkiv, northern Saltivka took place today. At present, we know about 5 people killed and more than 30 wounded, 5 of them children. All are civilians, no military.

The Russian state has become the largest terrorist organization in the world. And this is a fact. And this must be a legal fact. And everyone in the world must know that buying or transporting Russian oil, maintaining contacts with Russian banks, paying taxes and customs duties to the Russian state means giving money to terrorists.

I also said today, addressing the leaders of the G7, that our common potential is absolutely enough to defeat the Russian army – it does not know how to fight. All the operations we carry out to deoccupy our territories show one thing: the occupiers are crumbling when we have something to put pressure on them. They do not know how to resist. They are capable only of such vile strikes as those in Kremenchuk or Saltivka today, only of the total thoughtless destruction of all living things as in Mariupol. Therefore, the war may not drag on, if we can really push together and drive the occupiers out of our Ukrainian land. The sooner this happens, the more lives will be saved.

Even before the start of a full-scale war, we told our partners that we needed modern missile defense. We repeated this after February 24 as well. People in the Kremenchuk shopping mall deserved security just as much as people in any mall in the world – somewhere in Philadelphia or Tel Aviv, or in a shopping gallery somewhere in Dresden. The world can, and therefore must, stop Russian terror. And now I can already say this – I heard it from our partners: Ukraine must get reliable missile defense, we are expecting the supply of appropriate systems.

And there is another important result of the “seven”, which is worth mentioning right now. This has already been officially agreed: the most powerful democracies in the world will support our state as long as necessary for our victory.

Ukraine will not be broken! Never.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD: (emphasis mine)

The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on June 27, 2022

The one hundred twenty fourth (124) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.

russian occupiers continue to launch missile strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine. Today, in Kremenchuh, Poltava oblast, russian rocket hit a shopping center where civilians were staying. The number of victims is currently unknown. Rescue operations are underway.

Demonstrative and provocative actions by units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus in the areas bordering Ukraine are not ruled out in the Volyn and Polissya areas, as well as intensification of intelligence to clarify the positions and nature of our troops.

Air and missile strikes from the territory and airspace of the republic of belarus are expected to continue. Once again, we urge you not to ignore air alarm signals.

In the Siversky direction, units of the Armed Forces of the russian federation continue to be located in the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions in order to restrain the actions of units of the Defense Forces. The enemy fired mortars near Pokrovka and Starykovo, Sumy oblast. The enemy also used jet artillery in the areas of the settlements of Porozok and Verkhnya Pozhnya, Sumy oblast.

In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy is defending previously occupied positions, trying to prevent the advance of units of the Defense Forces and their entry to the state border of Ukraine in the north of Kharkiv region. Intelligence is trying to find weaknesses in the defense of our troops.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy, in order to regain lost ground, tried to carry out assault operations in the area of ​​the settlement of Dementievka, had no success, withdrew. Also, Ukrainian soldiers successfully repulsed enemy assaults in the direction of Dovhalivka and Zalyman.

The occupiers are taking measures to quickly disguise and try to mislead our units, for which they are installing wooden models of tanks on the defensive positions.

In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy is trying to improve its tactical position and create favorable conditions for the attack on the settlements of Barvinkove and Slovyansk. Continues shelling.

Trying to take control of Mazanivka, the enemy launched an offensive from the area of ​​the village of Dovhenke. It received a strong rebuff from the Ukrainian defenders and withdrew with losses.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy continues to focus on attempts to surround the Defense Forces near the city of Lysychansk, trying to blockade the city from the south and southwest. Takes measures to replenish the loss of personnel, weapons and military equipment.

The enemy did not take active action in the Kramatorsk direction.

Mortar and artillery shelling was recorded in the Lysychansk direction in the areas of the settlements of Lysychansk, Verkhnokamyanka and Soledar.

The enemy led the offensive in the direction of Vovchoyarivka – Verkhnokamyanka, has partial success, is consolidated south of the Lysychansk refinery. To distract the efforts of our troops, he led the offensive in the direction of Pidlisne – Lysychansk, had no success, withdrew.

In the Bakhmut direction, it fires artillery of various calibers in the areas of the settlements of Berestove, Klynove, Bakhmut, Vershina and Travneve.

Our soldiers successfully stopped the enemy’s reconnaissance attempt by fighting in the area of ​​Berestovo and the offensive in the direction of Midna Ruda – Klynove. In both cases, the occupiers withdrew.

The enemy has partial success in the direction of the Roty – Vershyna, trying to gain a foothold at the intersection of the E-40 highway.

In the Avdiivka, Kurakhiv, Novopavliv and Zaporizhzhia directions, in order to restrain the actions of our troops and prevent their transfer to other directions, the enemy fired mortars, tanks, barrel artillery and jet artillery at the areas of the settlements of Pisky, Avdiivka, Katerynivka, Chervone and Malynivka. It struck an air strike near Krasnohorivka.

Ukrainian soldiers stopped the occupiers’ offensive in the direction of Petrivske-Shevchenko and pushed the enemy back.

In the South Buh direction, the aggressor continued to fire at the positions of our troops with mortars, tanks, barrel artillery and jet artillery along the entire line of contact. It is possible that the enemy will carry out assault operations in certain areas in order to reach the administrative borders of the Kherson region.

In readiness to launch missile strikes on objects on the territory of Ukraine, the enemy holds two carriers of cruise missiles of the naval base “Caliber”.

Our units continue to successfully carry out missile and artillery fire missions in certain areas and inflict casualties on the occupiers in close combat.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!

Glory to Ukraine!

A lot to unpack there. The first is that despite all of Russia’s efforts – all the probing and the shelling – they’re not making much ground. As the DOD Senior Defense Official stated in his background briefing on 24 June: (emphasis mine)

So first, because it’s kind of out there in the news today, I wanted to just give you my quick take on what we’re seeing on the battlefield, and then secondly, a few highlights on security assistance.

So I just want to put into context what we’re seeing in Severodonetsk in terms of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ managed retrograde from that location. And the context that I want to share is just, when you look at the sweep of the past four months, obviously we’ve seen Russia having to, you know, completely recalibrate its plans, because its initial plans were overly ambitious and mismanaged, going from their multi-axis attempt that was defeated by the Ukrainians to now, a focus on Eastern Ukraine. And really, the Russians are just eking out inch by inch of territory here.

More on Sievierodonetsk in a minute or two, but let’s focus on this. What the Pentagon is assessing is that the Russians are just not getting very much out of their efforts. They have almost nothing to show for all the men and material that have been chewed up over the past four months.

Liz Sly at The Washington Post has reported that the Russian military is, as we say in the US military, just about out of Schlitz!

The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts.

“There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability,” said a senior Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.The assessments come despite continued Russian advances against outgunned Ukrainian forces, including the capture on Friday of the city of Severodonetsk, the biggest urban center taken by Russia in the east since launching the latest Donbas offensive nearly three months ago.

The assessments come despite continued Russian advances against outgunned Ukrainian forces, including the capture on Friday of the city of Severodonetsk, the biggest urban center taken by Russia in the east since launching the latest Donbas offensive nearly three months ago.

The Russians are now closing in on the adjacent city of Lysychansk, on the opposite bank of the Donets River. The town’s capture would give Russia almost complete control of the Luhansk oblast, one of two oblasts, or provinces, that make up the Donbas region. Control of Donbas is the publicly declared goal of Russia’s “special military operation,” although the multifront invasion launched in February made it clear that Moscow’s original ambitions were far broader.

Capturing Lysychansk presents a challenge because it stands on higher ground and the Donets River impedes Russian advances from the east. So instead, Russian troops appear intent on encircling the city from the west, pressing southeast from Izyum and northeast from Popasna on the western bank of the river.

According to chatter on Russian Telegram channels and Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, the Russian military is under pressure to bring all of Luhansk under Russian control by Sunday, perhaps explaining the heightened momentum of the past week.

But the “creeping” advances are dependent almost entirely on the expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells, which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be able to sustain for long, said the senior Western official.

Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack, the official said.

Officials refuse to offer a time frame, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, citing intelligence assessments, indicated this week that Russia would be able to continue to fight on only for the “next few months.” After that, “Russia could come to a point when there is no longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,” he told the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung in an interview.

Russian commentators are also noting the challenges, emphasizing a chronic shortage of manpower. “Russia does not have enough physical strength in the zone of the special military operation in Ukraine … taking into account the almost one thousand kilometer (or more) line of confrontation,” wrote Russian military blogger Yuri Kotyenok on his Telegram account. He estimated that Russia would need 500,000 troops to attain its goals, which would only be possible with a large-scale mobilization, a potentially risky and unpopular move that President Vladimir Putin has so far refrained from undertaking.

Much, much more at the link!

This does not mean that Ukraine is cruising to an easy victory. Russia is not spent, it still has a lot of artillery and missiles it can launch and bombs that it can drop on Ukraine. And it hasn’t even really tried tapping into its huge population to reconstitute its forces. Regardless of whether that would be a good political move for Putin or not.

As for Sievierodonetsk, as the Senior Defense Official indicated, the Ukrainians spent the past several days undertaking a retreat our of Sievierodonetsk, back across the river, and to their position on the high ground at Lysychansk. My understanding from the reporting is that the Ukrainians had determined they’d achieved their goals of slowing the Russians down, bottling them up, and attriting their forces and equipment in Sievierodonetsk. As such it was no longer worth continuing to fight there and a retreat out of town and across the river was undertaken and accomplished. Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s latest map and analysis, from yesterday, on the battle for Sievierodonetsk:

SIEVRODONETSK /1750 UTC 26 JUN/ The battle for the city is concluded. RU forces are now consolidating control of what is, for all purposes, a destroyed city. UKR forces have withdrawn to a solid defensive line conforming to the west bank of the Donets River. See Assessment. pic.twitter.com/DdS2ZQuVGq

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 26, 2022

Here is today’s British MOD assessment:

And here’s their updated map for today:

As you can see, as we’ve been saying over and over, and as confirmed by the SDO on the 24th, there just isn’t a lot of movement in the macro sense of the theater of operations.

Here’s today’s background briefing from the DOD: (emphasis mine)

STAFF: All right, hey, good morning, everybody. This is (Edited) from Defense Press Ops. I’m glad we’re able to do this this morning. It’s been a while since we’ve done one of these.

Just as a reminder, this is a background brief. Your subject matter expert today will be referred to as “a senior defense official”, and for your informational purposes, that senior defense official is (Edited). He’ll give a brief opener, and then we’ll go to Q&A.

We do have a 30-minute cap on the Q&A today, so we’ll have to stick with that. I apologize. We may not be able to get to everybody, but we’ll move as quickly as we can.

And with that, sir, I’ll turn it over to you.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Thanks. Well, first of all, good morning to everyone. All right, I’m going to — this is going to get you all sharpened up, but I’m going to tell you, I’ve been on the job now for about two weeks, so I hope you’ll forgive any of my misunderstandings just up front, but I would tell you that I’ve been on the Joint Staff before: left here a couple years ago and in between, was serving in a job that had me in Europe for the last three months, deployed as a part of operations forward. So I do feel pretty comfortable talking about what’s going on overseas and I look forward to our conversations today.

I think you’re all aware it’s the hundredth — 124th day of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. As you’ve likely observed on social media, Ukrainians are noting now that they do have HIMARS in their country. I won’t go into any particular details this morning, but all indications are that they are employing them very well. We’re continuing to work diligently to get the additional four HIMARS in the country that were announced in last week’s PDA. And also of note, the second round of HIMARS training should coincide with that, as well, and we expect that to be done here in the near future. And again, I’m happy to talk about that training and other training that we’re conducting with our partners and with the Ukrainians.

Over the weekend, I know you’re also aware of the Russian-executed 60 missile strikes across the country in Kyiv, Lviv, Chernihiv and Odesa. We’re not quite sure about the Russian objectives of the strikes. They certainly could be a protest against the G7, or of the arrival of HIMARS in country. We do know, and I think all of you have reported to some extent the impact of civilian casualties in Kyiv in particular against apartment buildings that were in vicinity of that strike, or the intended location of that strike. Again, not unusual to hear of civilian casualties associated with Russian strikes, sadly.

In the Donbas, we haven’t observed any real additional further movement out of Severodonetsk or through Severodonetsk by the Russians. We have seen Russian gains. Those gains, as many of you have been reporting, in that portion of the battlespace are occurring (inaudible), and I’m happy to talk a little bit about that, but it does not appear that they have encircled Lysychansk, and the Ukrainians are fighting very well, or very hard in — in that part of the battlespace.

And then, as has been mentioned in open source, we’re also aware of several reliefs of Russian generals in Ukraine. I’ll leave all the particulars of that to the Russian MOD spokesman, but we do continue to see concerns with that leadership or — and continued morale concerns with Russian forces.

Near Kherson in the south, we’re aware of growing indications of resistance against the Russian occupation. Over the last several days we’ve become aware of assassinations of local Russian officials, and we’re also aware that reporting suggests the Ukrainians have been successful in liberating several small towns northwest and west of Kherson, showing that despite tactical success by the Russians, they continue to hold on to what they capture to territory and prevent it from falling into Russian hands.

The last thing I’d say before I open it up is, you know, we are continuing to work our security assistance and moving heaven and earth to get that assistance forward to the Ukrainians as fast as we can, and I think what you’re seeing on the battlefield is that the Ukrainians are making good use of not just our assistance, but systems that they’re obtaining from our partners and allies around the world.

So I will hold there and look forward to your questions.

STAFF: All right. We’ll go ahead. We’ll start with Lita, AP.

Q: Morning. Thank you. Thanks, (SDO), for doing this.

I was wondering if you could talk to us a little bit about the new medium to long range missile systems, the NASAMS that are going to be going to Ukraine. Like what additional capabilities that will give them and how long it may take to get them, how many? Just how that might impact the battlespace from your view? And one quick other thing just on this sort of broader, you said you weren’t sure — the U.S. isn’t sure why there was suddenly Odesa and all the other broader strikes, is there any — is there any suggestion that there is an effort by Russia to change its focus or would it be just some statements do you think?

Thank you.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Let me — so on the HIMARS, so the — I think what we’re finding, and I don’t want to draw a correlation between the HIMARS and the rocket strikes or the missile strikes that we talked about in the second part of your comment there, you know, as I mentioned, we have not received indications that the strikes by the Russians are associated with the entry of the HIMARS or of anything else, quite honestly. And what I couldn’t tell you is if that is part of their larger — you know, their larger portion of the offensive or not. So I don’t want to connect it too.

And then the question about the air defense systems. I think you probably saw that the national security adviser talked about the air defense system. That’s certainly something that we’re looking at, is the way to help Ukrainians with additional air defense assets. I don’t have the particulars associated with the systems. But as soon as we know that and as soon as those are finalized, we will certainly work to provide you with those details and the particulars of the systems that we’re employing.

STAFF: All right. We’ll go to Dan Lamothe, Washington Post.

Q: Hey, good morning. Thanks for your time today.

Wanted to ask about these strikes, mostly by way of what you think they may be targeting, you know, that the — what weapons deliveries are obviously getting spread out across the country, there is some sense the depots are being at least targeted. Have you seen anything hit in terms of depots? And do you get the sense that that at least an aim here?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Thanks for your question, Dan.

Well, first of all, I’d say, you know, we — you know, we are apathetic, if that’s the right term in terms of the targeting. What I mean by that is, the Ukrainians are determining the targets that they shoot at. So we have provided the systems to the Ukrainians. They were pretty amazing in their training and have been in all sorts of training that’s going on outside the country. And then based on that, they’re determining the targets that they need to hit. This is their fight. And they’re doing that.

I don’t have particulars related to the targets that they’ve struck, but I know that if they were to employ them, they would employ them like we would in some cases against command-and-control or logistics, large concentrations of troops, that types of thing. But don’t have the particulars about how they’re targeting in this situation.

Q: I’m sorry, just to be clear, I was asking about whether there is an assessment that the Russians are trying to hit Ukrainian depots.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: That’s a whole different question that I answered incomplete, or incorrectly. And I don’t have that.

So, we are seeing that they are trying to hit targets — as an example, the target that resulted in the civilian casualties over the weekend, that target, those apartments were adjacent to or near a factory that we know constructs munitions for the Ukrainians. So it does give an indication that in that case in particular they were trying to hit a military target. I don’t have evidence that they’re trying to hit other logistic support areas at this time.

Sorry about the mess-up on that, Dan.

Q: No problem. Thanks.

STAFF: All right, we’ll go to David Martin, CBS.

Q: Could you give your latest assessment on the two opposing sides’ ability to sustain operations? Are the — you hear absolutely conflicting opinions that the Russians can only keep this up for a couple more months or that the Russians can keep this up forever. What is — what was the assessment from the Pentagon?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yes, sure. The — first of all I would tell you — I mean, if you just look on paper — if you just look on paper, the Russians certainly have an advantage that relates to munitions systems and likely total numbers of troops that they can put on the field.

What’s much harder to gain an understanding of is the will of the Ukrainian fighter. And I think, you know, and I know you all have reported on this extensively as well, but if you go back to the very beginnings the Ukrainian fighter has demonstrated an ability to win in a level of adversity that is just surprising in many cases.

With that in mind, I’d be hazard to give you any kind of timetable associated with either sides’ ability to press, and just because I think it has surprised the world time and time again.

I do know this: The Russians can stop any time they want. The Russians are the ones that instigated this. The Russians are the one that attacked a sovereign nation. And so, at any time they could opt to stop and head back. I imagine that, you know, that won’t necessarily be the exact thing we see, but that’s certainly their possibility.

Q: Let me ask you more specifically then with Severodonetsk. Are they going to be able to exploit that or do they now have to stop and regroup?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: That’s a great question.

I think — you know, so they certainly wanted Severodonetsk. What’s — you know, from a military perspective, what I would tell you is the small number of Ukrainians that held the Russians at Severodonetsk for as long as they did is really something I think we’ll probably all study in the future.

And when they chose to leave Severodonetsk, they chose to do it of their own accord, and to give that up in order to move to better-prepared locations for the continuing of that defense. And so, again, I’m telling you I think we’ll end up studying that in our army in years to come. I think they’re going to do that throughout that portion of the battlespace or the battlefield.

You know, if you look at that spot, it’s not very big. And what I mean by that is the area that the Russians and the Ukrainians are fighting over right now and that the Russians are losing a large number of people to gain, the Ukrainians are making them pay for a very small piece of ground.

In most cases, the Ukrainians are leaving those locations of their accord, not necessarily because the Russians have made them do but because they are choosing to move to positions of greater advantage. And the cost is pretty significant for the Russians. I think we’ll see that continue.

It is important, though, when you look at the map to realize the size of that general area is not huge. I think and this is — I haven’t put this on a map, but I think the entire area we’re talking about is something like from D.C. to Fairfax for those who live in this area. So not very big.

The way it’s being described in some circles you would think that it was here to Richmond or here to Norfolk, but that’s not the case. And again, the Ukrainians are holding that at pretty extensive cost for the Russians.

STAFF: All right, we’ll go to Idrees with Reuters.

Q: Can I just try that question once more? So there was basically a Washington Post story over the weekend citing Western intelligence, saying that Russia would exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to stop its offensive in the east. Do you have any intel product that says their combat capabilities are near to being exhausted and they’ll have to stop their offensive?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I don’t have those particulars to be able to talk to any real knowledge here. I’m sorry.

Q: That works. Thank you.

STAFF: All right, we’ll go to Jack Detsch, F.P.

Q: Sort of on a similar line, U.K. intelligence this morning said that Russia’s likely to start leaning more heavily on reserve forces, echelons of reserve forces in the Donbas. Just wondering if you’ve seen sort of any mobilization of those sorts of forces perhaps from the army combat reserves or from other echelons of Russian forces.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I know that the Russians have employed reserves over the last month or so. The fact that the Russians are talking about reserves speaks to the impact the Ukrainians are taking on the Russian army. And again, going back to our earlier discussion about, you know, initial indications about how the Russians might perform or the Ukrainians might do so, the fact that there continue to be reports and conversations about Russians using reserve speaks to the impact that the Ukrainians are having against their army.

STAFF: All right, we’ll go to Mike Glenn.

Q: Yes. Thank you (SDO).

With the high number of combat casualties, there have been some reports that the Russians are really having to scrape the bottom of the barrel for their senior leadership, including calling up retired officers back to the active duty. I’m wondering if can you all confirm that they’re really digging for senior leaders because of all the casualties they’ve suffered.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: You know, I think I’ve seen some of the same open press you have. I have not seen any particulars in our circles here, but I’ve seen the same open-source reports.

You know, given the way and per my earlier comments about general officers being replaced, it would make sense that they will start to run shy of senior leaders. And so, I think there’s probably some veracity to those reports. I just don’t have any particular evidence myself.

Q: Okay, thanks.

STAFF: All right, we’ll got to Nick, PBS, Nick Schifrin.

Q: Thanks, (SDO). Thank you very much.

Can we go back to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk a little bit? I know you’re trying to describe the physical area that it is, but as you know politically Severodonetsk became important because Russian separatists seized the administrative capital of Luhansk and Severodonetsk became Ukrainian-held, essentially, political capital of the Oblast. So can you talk about the significance of the fall of Severodonetsk from a little bit more strategic perspective, and the risk to Lysychansk that is posed today?

And then I know Lita asked about NASAMS. I know, even if you don’t want to specify the platform, could you just talk about the requests that Ukraine is asking for when it comes air defense? Can you talk about what you understand the air defense requirement is today, and in general, how the U.S. is trying to help that?

Thanks.

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Sure, Nick. I appreciate the question.

I should probably clarify the criticality of ground. If I’m a Ukrainian, every foot of Ukrainian soil I give up is pretty important to me. And so I don’t want to — I don’t want to underestimate the impact of losing ground to the Ukrainians. I think, you know, similarly to Mariupol, I think there was a great deal of symbolism in Severodonetsk for many of the reasons you just stated.

I think it’s also important — and I’m not, you know, wearing a Ukrainian uniform or a member of the Ukrainian government certainly, but I think what you’ll be able to see is the Ukrainians kind of rally around the fight that they gave the Russians in Severodonetsk. And so although they gave up ground, I think they did so by extracting a pretty significant cost against the Russians. The fact that, you know, in the end, several hundred Ukrainians continue to hold off the Russian Army in that part of the world in a — a pretty significant fight. It speaks again to the veracity — or not the veracity, but the tenacity of the Ukrainian soldier and their leadership.

The — back to the air defense question, the Ukrainians have asked for additional air support — defense support. I know that the Ukrainians are looking for air defense in all sorts of ways, so — from helicopters and airplanes, as well as missiles. And so we are working with the Ukrainians through all of our sources and with our partners and allies to provide them with the systems that they ask for that get after those needs.

Believe it or not, there is still a lot more Q&A at the link!

If you’re wondering what bottom of the barrel for Russian senior military leaders looks like, this is it:

After losing all of his top generals and commanders in the war with Ukraine, Putin calls General Pavel out of retirement to lead the Russian invasion. He weighs nearly 300 pounds now, intelligence officials say Putin is “scraping the bottom of the barrel”. pic.twitter.com/AMoMTfoZ3F

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) June 26, 2022

This morning Ukrainian Forces carried out another strike on Russian positions on Snake Island!

Another strike of the #UAarmy on the russian troops on Snake Island. The occupiers lost an anti-aircraft system Pantsir (SA-22 Greyhound). The cleaning of our land will continue as long as needed. pic.twitter.com/WpXbUrOICH

— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 27, 2022

Unfortunately, and as you saw referenced in both President Zelenskyy’s address and the Ukrainian MOD’s update, the Russians launched a cruise missile strike on a shopping mall earlier today.

"More than 1,000 civilians were in the #Kremenchuk shopping center at the time of the Russian missile strike. "The mall is on fire, rescue teams are fighting the fire, the number of victims is impossible to imagine," – President Zelensky#RussianWarCrimes pic.twitter.com/9eFg3KJjDM

— Stratcom Centre UA (@StratcomCentre) June 27, 2022

Shopping mall in Kremenchuk after today's russian attack.
So far, 10 people are reported dead, and at least 40 wounded.#RussianWarCrimes pic.twitter.com/lS71eCGYP8

— Stratcom Centre UA (@StratcomCentre) June 27, 2022

NBC News has the details:

June 27, 2022, 11:01 AM EDT / Updated June 27, 2022, 1:29 PM EDT

Ukraine said it feared scores of civilians might be dead or injured after a Russian missile strike hit a crowded shopping mall in the center of the country Monday.

More than 1,000 people were inside at the time of the rocket attack, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

“The number of victims is impossible to imagine,” he added in a post on the Telegram messaging app, sharing video that showed plumes of gray smoke rising above a building that was consumed in flames as people and first responders ran in front of it.

The apparent attack hit a shopping center in Kremenchuk, a city in the Poltava region on the banks of Ukraine’s Dnieper River. Dmytro Lunin, head of the Poltava region, said at least 13 people were killed and more than 40 others were injured.

“It is too early to talk about the final number of the killed,” he said as night fell in Ukraine.

Standing inside the smoking rubble of what was once a supermarket, Anton Herashchenko, an adviser for the Ministry of Internal Affairs, said rescuers were digging through what remained of the roof to find potential survivors.

“Rescue workers are underway to save people who just came to buy groceries,” he said, lifting the camera to show dozens of people frantically shoveling and sawing in to the blackened debris.

The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported that the missiles were fired from long-range bombers that took off from a Russian air base north of Ukraine.

NBC News has not verified that claim or the number of any deaths. The Russian Embassy in the United States did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the Ukrainian claims.

Much more at the link, including Russia’s odious claims that this was a false flag attack carried out by the Ukrainians on their own people as provocation against Russia. Which is, of course, a lie!

I think that’s enough for our first night back.

Your daily Patron!

Demining dog Patron showed the subscribers a new fit – a stylish white & blue vyshyvanka.

"Honestly, I don't like to wear anything but my work vest and Vyshyvanka." https://t.co/VNh76co9Py pic.twitter.com/t0GsYshR5A

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 27, 2022

Styling and profiling!

And here, from Patron’s official TikTok, is Patron engaged in the most serious fight of any war: fighting to stay awake during a briefing!

@patron__dsns

Ну заснув в прямому ефірі, з ким не буває :( #песпатрон #патрондснс #славаукраїні

♬ Mortal Kombat – The Immortal(S)

Open thread!

Greetings to all our friends, all leaders-friends of Ukraine!

Greetings to all who support freedom!

That is how I began my address to the European Council on March 24, three months ago, when I urged you to support us.

And that’s quite a path we have come in these three months! All of us together: Ukraine, your states and the European Union as a whole.

This path is not politics. I believe this is what will always be the starting point of Europe’s new history. Europe without division. Europe without “gray” zones. Europe that is truly united and that knows how to defend itself, its values, its future.

Today you have adopted one of the most important decisions for Ukraine in all 30 years of independence of our state.

However, I believe this decision is not only for Ukraine. This is the biggest step towards strengthening Europe that could be taken right now, in our time and in such difficult conditions, when the Russian war is testing our ability to preserve freedom and unity.

On the fifth day of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, we applied to join the European Union. We provided extremely fast and high-quality answers to the questionnaire we received from the European Commission.

And here is the desired result today. Today, I would like to reaffirm that Ukraine is capable of becoming a full-fledged member of the European Union.

Then, three months ago, I addressed each country of the European Union and indicated at what stage we were, as I thought, in our relations. And today I would like to tell each and every one of you personally what our people feel, and in the same order as it was then.

Lithuania stands for us. Thank you, Mr. President! Gitanas, you know how grateful Ukraine is to your people and to you personally.

Latvia stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! I believe that together we will be able to strengthen the international legal order.

Estonia stands for us. Thank you, Mrs. Prime Minister Kallas! By helping one, we help everyone. Estonia has done a lot.

Poland stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! Your state, your people, your President – all of you on this path to Europe are truly brothers with us.

France stands for us. Thank you, Emmanuel! You can be sure that with Ukraine, Europe will really be able to be among the global leaders in the XXI century.

Slovenia stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! I am grateful for the unwavering protection of the common European cause.

Slovakia stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! We have to continue to protect each other, it makes us really strong.

The Czech Republic stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! I believe that we will also be together on the path to Ukraine’s full membership in the EU.

Romania stands for us. Thank you, Mr. President! Klaus, our cooperation in the region and in European structures can indeed become one of the foundations of global stability.

Bulgaria stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! Thank you for choosing the side of good in the confrontation that began on February 24 without hesitation. We know it’s not easy for you.

Greece stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! And I’m personally thankful to the Greek people, your country, which I really love.

Germany stands for us. Thank you, Olaf! Thank you for your support at a crucial moment.

Portugal stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! Your country knows our people well. And I am sure that we will only increase positive ties between us.

Croatia stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! And thank you for the help with the experience we use to protect our freedom.

Sweden stands for us. Thank you, Mrs. Prime Minister! Blue and yellow truly always stand together!

Finland stands for us. Thank you, Mrs. Prime Minister! Your willingness to resist aggression is simply amazing!

The Netherlands stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! You can be sure that your choice of Ukraine will definitely strengthen our common European freedom, the rule of law and our unity in diversity.

Malta stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! The voice of your island makes the European community complete.

Denmark stands for us. Thank you, Mrs. Prime Minister! Be sure that the protection of European values will only increase with Ukraine.

Luxembourg stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! We truly understand each other, and your energy inspires us to future victories.

Cyprus stands for us. Thank you, Mr. President! Thank you for the choice in favor of our people and our values.

Italy stands for us. Thank you very much, Mr. Prime Minister! Thank you for your strength, for your perseverance. Thank you for proving that the principles of decent people are truly the foundation of Europe.

Spain stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! I believe that we can significantly strengthen our relations.

Belgium stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! We hope that after our victory we will be able to see each other often in Brussels on common European affairs.

Austria stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Chancellor! I am convinced that we will be able to make Europe even safer and historically the most stable.

Ireland stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister! This is a historic rapprochement of our nations. Your personal leadership is truly impressive.

Hungary stands for us. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister, thank you, Viktor, together we are capable of much more than alone!

Mrs. President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola! We are grateful to you personally and grateful to the European Parliament! You were the first to support Ukraine’s candidate status the day after our application.

Mr. President of the European Council, dear Charles, Mrs. President of the European Commission, dear Ursula, I am grateful to you both for the leadership that has led us all to this day. I am grateful for the sincere help, for the faith in Ukraine, in Ukrainians, in all of us.

I have always said that we, Ukrainians, believe in the European Union. Although we remained formally outside the European Union, our country probably had the largest number of flags of a united Europe.

They were in the hands of our people during the revolutions. They have been in the hands of our people in the trenches since 2014. I believe that the flag of the European Union will be in every Ukrainian city that we have yet to liberate from the occupation of the Russian Federation.

Ukrainian and European flags will also be together when we will be rebuilding our state after this war together.

And today in the framework of our joint meeting – the summit of all European leaders, I would like to express special gratitude to our heroes – each and everyone who defends the independence of Ukraine with weapons in their hands, defends the freedom of Europe.

Thank you! Thank you for making possible a new history of Ukraine, a new history of Europe – even stronger, even freer.

Thank you all so much!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s today’s operational update from Ukraine’s MOD:

The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on June 23, 2022

The one hundred twentieth (120) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.

In the Volyn and Polissya directions, there were no signs of the formation of enemy offensive groups were found. Units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus continue to perform tasks to cover the belarusian-Ukrainian border. Mobilization exercises are held with the military commissariats of some regions, where issues of notification and manning of military units are worked out.

In the Siversky direction, the enemy continues to provide enhanced protection of the Ukrainian-russian border. It fired on civilian infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Stari Vyrky, Atynske and Starykove.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy carried out artillery shelling of civilian and military infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Kharkiv, Ruska Lozova, Pechenihy, Khrestyshche, Mospanove, Stary Saltiv, Ruski Tyshky, and Pryshyb.

In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy fires on civilian infrastructure from artillery and rocket-propelled grenade launchers in the areas of Bohorodychne, Adamivka, Dibrivne, Kurulka, Petrovske, Virnopillya and Mazanivka. Our soldiers repulsed an enemy assault near Dolyna and Bohorodychne and forced the occupiers to withdraw.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy continues to fire on units of the Defense Forces with artillery and jet artillery, mortars and tanks along the line of contact. He focused his main efforts on the Siverodonetsk and Bakhmut areas in order to establish control over the settlements of Siverodonetsk and Mykolayivka. It is fixed on previously captured positions in the districts of Loskutivka and Raiy-Oleksandrivka. It is trying to renew the losses.

The enemy did not take active action in the Kramatorsk direction.

In the Siverodonetsk direction, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, artillery and jet artillery in the areas of the settlements of Syrotyne, Lysychansk, Siverodonetsk, Voronove and Myrna Dolyna. Units of the 2nd Army Corps, with the support of rosguard units, carried out assault operations in order to establish full control over Siverodonetsk. The fighting continues.

Our soldiers stopped the offensive in the direction of the southern outskirts of Lysychansk, inflicted losses on the enemy and forced them to retreat. To resume the offensive, the occupiers put forward reserves. The Ukrainian defenders also stopped the enemy’s offensive near Borivske.

The enemy conducted reconnaissance by fighting in the area of ​​the settlement of Bila Hora. The offensive continued near the settlement of Raiy-Oleksandrivka, fighting continues.

In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy fired artillery of various calibers at our positions in the areas of the settlements of Mykolayivka, Berestove, Klynove, Toretsk, Novoluhansk, Pokrovske, Luhanske, and Kodema. The army aircraft of the invaders struck near Klynove.

The occupiers are trying to establish control over the village of Hirske. The forces of assault groups from the 1st Army Corps captured Mykolayivka. The failure of the enemy ended the reconnaissance battle near the village of Vershyna.

The enemy tried unsuccessfully to block the actions of our units in the Klynove area.

In the Novopavlivsk direction, the enemy fired at the positions of our troops from tanks and artillery near Pavlivka, Vuhledar, and Prechystivka. It struck air strikes in the areas of Pavlivka, Vuhledar and Shevchenko. Near Shevchenko, our soldiers gave the occupiers a fierce battle and forced them to retreat.

To identify weaknesses in our defense, the occupiers used sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the areas of the settlements of Vremivka, Novosilky and Neskuchne. Ukrainian soldiers successfully discovered them – the enemy withdrew with heavy losses.

In the Avdiivka, Kurakhiv and Zaporizhzhia directions, the enemy did not wage active hostilities. In order to prevent the transfer of reserves to other areas, it fired at the positions of our troops from tanks, mortars, artillery and jet artillery in the areas of Avdiivka, Pisky, Opytne, Marinka, Hrushove and Novopola.

Our soldiers strongly suppressed the enemy’s attempt to attack Marinka.

In the South Buh direction, the enemy did not take active action. It fired on civilian infrastructure from barrel and jet artillery in the areas of the settlements of Dobryanka, Mykolayivka and Trudolyubivka. It struck an air strike on the positions of our troops near Knyazivka. In order to detect changes in the position of our units and adjust the fire, it conducted aerial reconnaissance of UAVs.

In the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, the enemy’s naval group is trying to maintain a favourable operational regime. Five high-precision weapons carriers are being held ready to launch missile strikes on targets in Ukraine.

Not feeling support among the inhabitants of the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, the occupiers are afraid of total resistance from the local population. As a result, they carry out illegal searches, arrests and imprisons.

Our units continue to perform missile and artillery fire tasks in certain areas and beat the occupiers in close combat.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s a short documentary clip about Swedish Special Operations!

pic.twitter.com/xKGFHk99Kw

— Ukraine Memes for NATO Teens (@LivFaustDieJung) June 22, 2022

Should have read the instructions!

 

 

Your daily Patron!

In Ukraine, there is an unusual dog named Patron. This is a dog that clears mine with the military. I have only one question, in which laboratory was it created? @WizBubba @MummyBr @NFTFiesta @DynosEth @eazymoney_nft @FrenchieNFTeam @DSPC_nft muz by @DeemmPoll and @Salazarsilent pic.twitter.com/LC5nPZKAl9

— Hannah Montana (@tressmontana) June 22, 2022

Ukraine's mine-sniffing dog Patron received the Golden Paw Award

The Kennel Club of Ireland awards this prize to the dogs who acted for the benefit of the human community or at least one person, 🇺🇦State Emergency Service informs https://t.co/saiwyvK5QM pic.twitter.com/JJzDhYrSFh

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 24, 2022

From his TikTok page, Patron will be conducting your quarterly review:

@patron__dsns

Такого президента не було і не буде! 💙💛 #песпатрон #патрон #славаукраїні

♬ оригинальный звук – she.

Let me just say, I’m pretty sure some of you are not going to get that nickel raise.

That’s it for me, I’m going to go rack out. If I continue to improve day on day, we’ll have a proper update tomorrow night.

If not:

Open thread!

Ukrainians!

Our defenders!

Today, June 22, is the Day of Mourning and Remembrance of the Victims of War. That war. A war that was to remain forever in the history of the XX century and was never to be repeated. But it is repeated.

Today there is no shortage of words that Russia did the same on February 24 as the Nazis did on June 22. Much has been said about this. And I want to add only one thing. Then 1418 days passed from the morning of the invasion to the defeat of the aggressor. We must liberate our land and achieve victory, but faster. Much faster. This is our national goal, and we must work to achieve it on a daily basis. Not only the state, but also every citizen – at the level at which it is possible.

From the very morning I continued the telephone marathon for a positive decision on the candidacy for Ukraine. 11 leaders today.

Bulgaria. I thanked Prime Minister of Bulgaria Petkov for supporting Ukraine and the development of the whole of Europe with our participation.

Latvia. We discussed with Mr. Prime Minister Kariņš the cooperation between our countries, between Ukraine and the European Union, as well as our joint opportunities to protect Europe from the crises that Russia organizes, including the food crisis.

Greece. I was glad to hear the words of sincere support for Ukraine. Mr. Prime Minister and I have the same vision of the historical significance of the decision that is expected from the European Council.

Sweden. Prospects for bilateral cooperation and cooperation at the level of European structures were discussed with Prime Minister Andersson.

Estonia. Thanked Mrs. Prime Minister Kallas for her continued support of Ukraine. The priorities of our cooperation and the agenda in the context of the NATO Summit in Madrid next week were discussed.

Czech Republic. Fruitful conversation with Mr. Prime Minister Fiala. The priorities of the Czech presidency of the Council of the European Union in the next six months were discussed. And now I am sure that the voice of the Czech Republic is in favor of Ukraine.

Belgium. I thanked Mr. Prime Minister De Croo for supporting our European perspective and invited him to visit Ukraine. I hope that Belgium will take a significant part in the post-war reconstruction of our country.

Austria. I am grateful to Chancellor Nehammer for the political and humanitarian support, for understanding the needs of Ukraine. We can do a lot to develop relations between our states.

Slovenia. We agreed with Mr. Prime Minister Golob that we can strengthen cooperation between our countries. I thanked him for the consistent support of the candidacy for Ukraine.

Moldova. I spoke with President Sandu. We supported each other on the eve of an important meeting of the European Council. And we will help each other to complete this path to the European Union faster.

Today I spoke again with President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda. I expressed full support to him over the situation around the Kaliningrad region of Russia.

Tomorrow I will continue this marathon – we must provide maximum support to our state. We expect a key European decision tomorrow night.

The occupiers struck at Mykolaiv, seven missiles. Fortunately, no one was killed. Five people were injured. There were strikes at the Kharkiv region as well. There are casualties. There were strikes at the borders of the Chernihiv and Sumy regions.

In Donbas there are massive air and artillery strikes. The goal of the occupiers in this direction remains the same – they want to destroy the whole Donbas step by step. Entire. Lysychansk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk – they aim to turn any city into Mariupol. Completely ruined.

That is why we repeatedly emphasize the acceleration of weapons supplies to Ukraine. Parity is needed on the battlefield as soon as possible to stop this devilish armada and move it beyond the borders of Ukraine.

I am grateful to the United States for its assistance in investigating war crimes in Ukraine. I am grateful to Mr. Eli Rosenbaum for his willingness to join in the establishment of justice – he is one of those American investigators who managed to expose many Nazis. Our joint investigation team must be as strong as possible so that none of the Russian criminals avoid punishment. And this will be one of the largest contributions to the protection of international law and order of our time. Just as September 1, 1939 and June 22, 1941 ended in Nuremberg trials, February 24, 2022 must end in a fair tribunal. Russia must be held accountable for all the evil it has brought to Ukraine.

Today I signed a new decree on awarding our heroes. 195 combatants were awarded state awards, 17 of them posthumously.

Eternal memory to all whose lives were taken by the occupiers!

Eternal glory to everyone who fights for Ukraine!

We are preparing for the historic decision of the European Council, there are only a few hours left.

Glory to Ukraine!

There was no operational update today from Ukraine’s MOD. Nor was their a DOD backgrounder today.

Here is today’s assessment from Britain’s MOD:

And here’s their updated map for today:

We’re still at the same place we’ve been for several weeks: not a lot of movement being reflected on the maps overall.

Here’s former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s updated map and analysis on the battle for Sievierodonetsk:

SIEVERDONETSK / NEW MAP PROJECTION / 2130 UTC 22 JUN/ Wider area map showing approximate RU holdings in the vicinity of Sieverodonetsk. UKR continues defensive Ops As RU exhausts resources & morale, it may gain territory, but is unlikely to defend it against UKR counter-attack. pic.twitter.com/t3mL5H5Xye

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 22, 2022

He also brings us another example of partisan activity in occupied Kherson:

INDIAN COUNTRY: RU occupiers face the threat of Ukrainian Special Forces and Partisans. @Johnyrocket69 has posted this video of a Partisan / SOF attack on RU forces near Kherson. RU is discovering that it's one thing to seize UKR territory, but quite another to hold it. https://t.co/9QpVb6w3IB

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 22, 2022

We also have video of Ukrainian forces using a kamikaze drone to attack a petroleum refinery in Rostov Oblast, Russia!

Here is some video of the immediate aftermath. The PD-1 and PD-2 have a max payload of 22kg; but in this instance it is quite possible that the drones have been modified to carry a larger warhead.

Either way, a fascinating example of modern warfare. pic.twitter.com/4V76nAOmPv

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 22, 2022

We also have some sudden Russian personnel changes. First up is retired FSS Colonel Vadim Zimin, who carried Russia’s equivalent of the nuclear football for Putin. Zimin was found shot in his home over the weekend. Fox3 News has the details:

In the kitchen of his apartment in Krasnogorsk, which is located in the Moscow region, he was discovered dead from gunshot wounds.

Zimin was discovered by his brother, who, according to reports, had been hiding in the bathroom during the shooting that took place on Monday.

He was injured in the head and was laying in a pool of blood; a pistol marked Izh 79-9TM was lying nearby.

According to Moskovsky Komsomolets, the incident took place while Zimin was the subject of a criminal investigation for the alleged accepting of bribes after being promoted to a prominent job within the customs department.

US News & World Report is reporting that Putin has replaced his theater commander, again!

The Russian government appears to have fired top commanders for its invasion of Ukraine and replaced them with lower ranking officers, an unusual shake-up in the midst of an ongoing military operation that analysts say represents a “possible purge.”

The Institute for the Study of War in an analysis note published early Wednesday assessed that Russia will appoint a new commander for the headquarters overseeing operations in the region that includes Ukraine while also replacing the commander for the war itself – which Russian President Vladimir Putin insists on calling a “special military operation” – with a senior officer not currently commanding combat troops.

Similarly, the Kremlin appears to have fired the current head of the elite Russian airborne forces and replaced him with Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, the current chief of staff for the military headquarters overseeing operations around central Russia – the region stretching from the Ural mountains to Siberia.

The institute, which has fastidiously documented Russian operations since its invasion on Feb. 24, assesses the moves indicate the Kremlin “may be in the process of radically reshuffling the command structure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, indicating a possible purge of senior officers blamed for failures in Ukraine.”

“Such drastic rotations within the Russian military, if true, are not actions taken by a force on the verge of a major success and indicate ongoing dysfunction in the Kremlin’s conduct of the war,” the institute’s analysis note concluded.

Moscow has not commented publicly on the moves, though Teplinksy on Tuesday oversaw a medal ceremony for paratroopers and drone operators who distinguished themselves in the Ukraine war, state news reported.

The shake-up comes amid Western fears that the conflict is settling into a grinding war of attrition as it ends its fourth month as well as indications that it is becoming unsustainable for Russia’s military.

Appointing a new commander for the headquarters that oversees Ukraine, known as the Southern Military District, combined with a separate appointment for the war itself “is a drastic step that would speak to severe crises within the Russian high command, and possibly a purge by the Kremlin,” the institute said.

More at the link.

On Monday we got word that the German government expects that Finland and Sweden will be admitted to NATO:

The full report from the German government source, which suggests that the impasse with Turkey on Sweden and Finland's NATO membership might finally be nearing an end pic.twitter.com/rh60bG2VMY

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) June 20, 2022

Which is good because Finland has been paying attention to Russian provocations regarding Estonia and Lithuania:

#Finland is ready to fight #Russia in case of attack

"Finland has been preparing for a Russian attack for decades and will offer fierce resistance if it happens," said Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Timo Kivinen. pic.twitter.com/lYO83ZbCuw

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) June 22, 2022

Yesterday a Russian  MI-8 transport helicopter violated Estonian airspace. Sky News has the details:

Estonia has accused Russia of violating its airspace for the first time by helicopter, in a highly provocative move ahead of a major NATO summit.

The Baltic state, a member of the NATO alliance, also said ongoing Russian military exercises are simulating missile strikes against its country daily.

“This is the picture of the threat. How we see the Russian threat… It has never been as serious as it is now,” said Kusti Salm, the top civil servant at the Estonian defence ministry, speaking to journalists on Tuesday.

It also came just days before the heads of state and government of the 30-strong NATO alliance meet for a landmark summit in Madrid, where they are set to present plans for a fundamental reshaping of their defences in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Estonia said it has summoned the Russian ambassador to Tallinn to protest at the flight path of the MI-8 border guard helicopter, which it said entered Estonian airspace for two minutes without permission on Saturday evening.

The incident took place in the southern Koidula area, not far from the Russian city of Pskov, according to a statement from Estonia’s military.

Mr Salm said there had been “multiple border violations by helicopters” from Russia over the past week.

He said one helicopter had crossed the border, while another flew very close. He described these helicopter incidents as having happened “several times in the region”.

Russia is also conducting military exercises that include simulating missile strikes on its Baltic neighbour.

“It is real life. They are actually simulating missiles attacks against NATO territory and letting us know that they are doing this,” Mr Salm said.

More at the link.

Putin has also decided to rattle his sabre at Lithuania. Lithuania, in a move to fully enforce the EU sanctions on Russia, announced this week that it would block the shipment of goods from Russia to Kaliningrad. Putin was not amused. Reuters has the details:

VILNIUS, June 22 (Reuters) – Lithuania will be prepared if Russia disconnects it from the regional power grid in retaliation for blocking rail shipments of some Russian goods to Moscow’s Kaliningrad exclave, but no military confrontation is expected, its president told Reuters.

He spoke after the Kremlin warned Lithuania on Tuesday that Moscow would respond to the ban on the transit of goods sanctioned by the EU to Kaliningrad in such a way that citizens of the Baltic state would feel the pain. read more

With relations between Moscow and the West at a half-century low over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Lithuania banned the transit of goods sanctioned by the European Union across its territory to and from Kaliningrad, citing EU sanction rules.

Kaliningrad is sandwiched between NATO members Poland and Lithuania and supplied by rail via the territory of Lithuania.

Lithuania shut the route for transport of steel and other ferrous metals from mainland Russia on Friday, saying it had to do so under EU sanctions that took effect that day.

“We are ready and we are prepared for unfriendly actions from Russia (in response), such as disconnection from the BRELL (power grid) system, or others,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in the interview on Wednesday.

Thirty years after seceding from the then-Soviet Union and 17 years since joining the EU, Baltic states Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia still depend on Russia for stable power supplies.

However, Lithuania installed equipment on its power link to Poland last year to connect with the continental European grid quickly as an insurance policy in case Russia cuts off the flow of electricity, potentially causing blackouts.

Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council on Tuesday promised retaliation that “will have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania”, while the top EU envoy in Moscow urged Russia to refrain from “escalatory steps and rhetoric”. read more

Nauseda said: “I do not believe that Russia will challenge us in military sense, because we are a NATO member.”

He said he will bring up the stand-off at a NATO summit next week when the alliance will weigh whether to boost troop levels in member states nearest to Russia, like the Baltics.

“It would not be a mistake for us to use this example (standoff) to illustrate what Russia really is, and what methods and threats it uses to solve its problems,” said Nauseda. “It might calm down those who say that we must help Russia to save face – while it threatens us in a cocky manner.”

Nauseda also said Lithuania felt the solidarity of other EU countries in the stand-off, and will be expanding the list of goods it bars from reaching Kaliningrad, as phase-in periods for the EU sanctions are reached.

“We feel the support of the European Union, because this is a decision made by the European Union,” he said.

More at the link.

Here in the US, the US Intelligence Community is very worried about increased Russian active measures and the effect on both domestic American politics and American support for Ukraine. The Daily Beast has the details:

Ever since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a war in Ukraine this February, his ouster has been predicted up the wazoo; the invasion hasn’t been the quick success he’d hoped it would be, his insider circle has been itching to get rid of him, and he’s rumored to have cancer.

But rather than counting on exiting the political scene in dramatic fashion, Putin might be betting that he can somehow outlast his detractors as well as the Biden Administration, whose security assistance for Ukraine has been pivotal in keeping a Russian win at bay. And part of Putin’s plot to outlive the Biden administration is likely to include influence operations aimed at securing an American political environment that’s more favorable to his goals, former CIA and Department of Homeland Security officials told The Daily Beast.

That scheme will inevitably aim to influence voters participating in both the midterms and the presidential election in 2024 in an attempt to get candidates elected who are somehow more sympathetic to Putin, according to Daniel Hoffman, a former CIA Moscow chief of station.

“He’s going to try really, really hard to… exacerbate those isolationist tendencies and kind of induce us to question, ‘Why are we supporting Ukraine?’” Hoffman said. “He’s trying to dilute U.S. support for [Ukrainian President] Zelensky.”

Already, Russian influence operations targeting American and Western audiences appear to be weakening Americans’ support and appetite for providing aid to Ukraine, according to a U.S. intelligence community bulletin obtained by The Daily Beast.

The May intelligence bulletin from the Office of Intelligence and Analysis at the Department of Homeland Security says the Kremlin’s influence arm has focused Russian influence operations that are targeting American audiences almost entirely on the war in Ukraine. Russian state media and proxy information operations are working to paint Western support for Ukraine as the reason the war is dragging on so long, and the reason there is a growing food crisis. Never mind the fact the conflict and grain export problems exist because Putin chose to invade Ukraine in the first place.

“Outlets claimed… that Western nations prolonged the conflict by sending military aid to Ukraine,” reads the intelligence brief, which focused on Russian information operations in May. “Outlets claimed that Western actions were causing global food prices to soar.”

The intelligence team also assesses that the Russian government remains one of the primary threats to the United States due to its “malicious cyber operations against federal and state, local, tribal, and territorial governments, election organizations,” and more.

The Russian influence shops have also particularly been zeroing in on the idea that Western security assistance to Ukraine has been escalating the war.

These kinds of narratives are only likely to increase in the coming days as Putin seeks to shore up his power, according to Brian Harrell, a former Assistant Secretary at the Department of Homeland Security.

“As health related rumors swirl surrounding Putin, I suspect we will see an uptick in propaganda and even counter-messages from loyalists,” Harrell told The Daily Beast.

Any good spy will tell you it’s impossible to get inside Putin’s head. But Russian information operations can offer a clue. In distracting Americans from supporting Ukraine, and as Russian forces continue to try to take key Ukrainian cities, Putin is likely hoping that he can stave off defeat in Ukraine and therefore stave off an ouster, too.

“Putin’s thinking: ‘I can outlast all you people. And if I get this to 2024, I might get a Republican who doesn’t feel like Joe Biden,’” Hoffman told The Daily Beast. “They’re students of American politics. Of course he’s going to look at the midterms and he’s looking at anybody who’s… against the war in Ukraine.”

Russian election interference may also include efforts to advance politicians or themes that would reverse sanctions against Russia, according to Gavin Wilde, a former director for Russia, Baltic, and Caucasus affairs on the White House National Security Council.

“Their major headache has been the idea that Washington is kind of facilitating Ukraine’s westward geopolitical tilt,” Wilde, who contributed to the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, told The Daily Beast. “To the extent that they can both delegitimize that in Ukraine proper as well as delegitimize those forces in Washington, D.C. and break that strain of support over the longer term, that’s kind of the major end goal.”

Russia has long intervened in American politics by choosing a preferred candidate to support in influence operations. In 2016, Putin developed a preference for Donald Trump’s candidacy, according to a Senate Intelligence Committee assessment. In the buildup to the 2020 presidential elections, Putin had Russian influence operations denigrating Biden’s candidacy while supporting Trump’s reelection, according to a National Intelligence Council briefing on the matter.

Russian proxies and information operations teams have also worked to meddle in U.S. politics by exacerbating existing divisions in the United States in order to sow discord and create distrust in the U.S. government. Even before the coronavirus pandemic, vaccination debates were a favorite of the Kremlin. Between 2014 and 2017 Russian influence operations linked to the Russian government Internet Research Agency (IRA) focused on pumping both pro- and anti-vaccination narratives online to amplify divisions around vaccination in the United States. In the buildup to the 2016 presidential elections, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) aimed to stoke racial divisions by creating fake Black Lives Matter groups on Facebook. In 2020, Russian efforts focused on inflaming racial tensions and on duping real journalists to publish posts that would inflame political tensions.

Some of Putin’s influence operations in the coming months are likely to try to dig in on existing divisive issues to create more tension and drama in the United States, just as Russian operations have before, both to sow discord and distract from the war in Ukraine.

“Certainly there’s probably a line of thought out of Moscow that any country if distracted by its own internal problems will have less of an appetite for foreign problems,” Wilde told The Daily Beast. “All politics are local in that sense and I think the Kremlin certainly grasps that—that might be one kind of avenue through which to kind of limit Washington’s appetite or capacity to support Ukraine.”

And according to a second intelligence bulletin from the Office of Intelligence and Analysis that The Daily Beast obtained, the intelligence community already believes that the Kremlin is seeking to interfere in the midterm elections this year.

“We expect Russian interference in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, as Russia views this activity as an equitable response to perceived actions by Washington and an opportunity to both undermine U.S. global standing and influence U.S. decision-making,” the June intelligence bulletin, which was first reported by CNN, reads.

The DHS intelligence team expects the Russian government to continue to rely on troll farms, state media outlets, and other proxies online to spread pro-Russia narratives and to try to divide Americans in the coming months.

“We assess that Russia will continue malign influence and interference activities designed to undermine U.S. global prestige, sow division among the American public, undermine faith in U.S. democratic institutions, and portray Russia as a global power,” the intelligence brief states.

One topic Putin might be eyeing is support in the United States for Europe, and in particular, U.S. dedication to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and other security assistance to Ukraine and Europe, according to Wilde.

“There’s going to probably be, by 2024, a crystallized debate about the degree of U.S. commitment to Europe… including Ukraine,” Wilde said. “Putin is very well aware that that debate is probably only going to become more acute.”

Part of the Kremlin’s information operations tactics to undermine the U.S. political process will be aimed at suppressing the American vote by dissuading voters from showing up to the polls, the report states.

“Russian malign influence actors likely will attempt to dissuade U.S. voters from participating in the 2022 midterm elections using similar tactics employed during the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, such as targeting audiences with false information about voting logistics, exacerbating racial tensions, and levying attacks or praise on candidates from either political party,” the report states.

More at the link!

For those of you who remember the analysis that John sent around as a newsletter and then someone subsequently posted at the backup site, I wrote this back when the site was down:

A significant problem giving forward is that donor fatigue in the US has already started to set in. For instance, in anticipation of the Senate finally voting to approve the $40 billion aid package for Ukraine, Senator Rubio stated that he expected that senators from both the Democratic and Republican party would defeat Rand Paul’s filibuster/objection, that aiding Ukraine is the right thing to do, but they – and they was undefined, it was unclear if it was Ukraine or the Biden admin or both – cannot just keep coming back to Congress asking for $40 billion after $40 billion. Given the number of isolationist Republicans (57 as of 18 MAY) that have coalesced around Representative Massie (R-KY) and his position that the US should not provide any aid to Ukraine, should the Republicans retake the House majority, let alone recapture both chambers of Congress in the November 2022 elections, funding will most likely be greatly reduced if not turned off entirely.

This is not because there is not currently a majority in the House between both the parties for providing support, but because with 50 to 60 Republican representatives who are now siding with Massie in his opposition to providing any funding, the Republicans will not have a majority of their own majority to pass the funding legislation. When in the majority the House Republican Caucus operates based on a caucus specific rule known as the Hastert Rule. The Hastert Rule states that unless there is a majority within the Republican House Caucus to pass any specific piece of legislation, then that legislation will not be brought up to a vote. Even if it has majority support overall in the House. While the Hastert Rule has often been waived to prevent a government shutdown or fund disaster aid to US states when the Republicans have had a majority in the House, it is intended to heighten the partisan divide between the parties by functionally excluding the Democratic Caucus in the House from participating in legislating. As a result, any significantly large enough group within the Republican caucus can prevent a House Republican majority from legislating This was done repeatedly to Speakers Ryan and Boehner by the Republican Freedom Caucus, which was the successor to the Republican Tea Party Caucus.

Additionally, war skepticism, specifically concern over the Biden administration’s strategic objectives in regard to supporting Ukraine, has been adopted as the editorial line by the editorial board at The New York Times. The two poles, or boundaries, of American news media are The New York Times and Fox News. Fox News early on staked out a position of both skepticism of American support for Ukraine among its more journalistic oriented reporting and outright pro-Putin/pro-Russian agitprop as espoused by Tucker Carlson who is Fox’s most watched commenter. Clips of Carlson and his guests, as well as other Fox segments, are regularly promoted on Russian state controlled news and news analysis programs. The other pole, The New York Times, is the de facto editor for all the political reporting in the US other than Fox News. Whatever position The New York Times takes will be quickly picked up by the rest of the US news media. To have the de facto editor for all political reporting in the US adopting a skeptical position to the US’s support for Ukraine as one pole for American journalism while Fox News had already established outright hostility to the US’s support for Ukraine as the other, will constrain how American reporters and news outlets cover Ukraine’s defense against Putin’s re-invasion going forward. It will drive war skepticism among Americans and provide the isolationist wing of the Republican Party, especially of the House and Senate Republican Caucuses, with the excuse they need to try to cut off further American support to Ukraine.

If I were advising the Ukrainian MOD, I would be recommending they ask for everything they think they’re going to need and ask for it immediately because come next January, there is a good chance the majority in at least the House, if not both chambers of Congress will have changed hands. If that does happen, the Ukrainians will likely get nothing once the new Congress is sworn in.

You may also remember my post from June 4th where I also discussed these concerns:

What Putin is trying to do is achieve subordinate goals that will then function as ways to achieve his primary strategic objectives and ends. If Putin can create a large enough food crisis in parts of the Middle East and Africa, then he believes he can kick off another refugee crisis just like he did between 2014 and 2016 from his actions in support of Assad in the Syrian civil war. It is important to remember that the Levant is still suffering from over a decade of drought, which has hit Iraq particularly hard. Moreover, mercenaries, commonly referred to as the Wagner Group, working for Progozhin’s subsidiary mineral extraction companies are currently operating across and through the Sahel. They are creating significant problems in the Central African Republic, parts of Sudan, and Mali. They’re also a major problem in Libya. So they have the ability to create population outflows through violence as well as famine. We already know that India isn’t going to make its stockpile of grain available for export. Modi has decided to sit on it. If Putin’s theft of Ukrainian grain or interdiction of it preventing it from being brought to market is successful, he believes he can create a food scarcity crisis that will overwhelm the EU states. At the same time, if his theft and/or interdiction of Ukrainian grain also creates a food scarcity crisis in Ukraine, then he can increase the outflow of Ukrainians into the EU as refugees as well. This refugee crisis of Ukrainians, as well as people from parts the Middle East and parts of Africa is intended to provide an opening for the extremist nationalist and fascist movements and parties he supports in the EU states to make electoral, other political, and societal gains. He also intends for the refugee crisis to create an informational and ideational space for the blame to be placed on the Ukrainians, especially the Ukrainian refugees. The Russian information warfare around the grain and refugee issues is already setting the conditions for this.

I think this strategy could be partially successful. Right now the soft to almost indifferent parts of the EU regarding Ukraine and her defense against Putin’s re-invasion are Germany, France, Italy, and Hungary. Hungary for obvious reasons resulting from who Orban is, his own history, and his alliance with Putin against the rest of the EU. Italy, especially its news media, has been particularly susceptible to Russia’s information warfare campaign against Ukraine. We’ve covered what is going on with Germany a number of times. Though this new Der Spiegel reporting is interesting. As for France, Macron seems to have completely lost the plot based on today’s reporting.

What I think could happen is not that the EU or NATO will split, but they’ll simply become irrelevant to the process. You’d see the Baltic states, Poland, Norway, Finland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and the US – provided what I’m worried about doesn’t happen in November – continue to support Ukraine while Germany, France, Italy, Hungary either wind up somewhere between ineffectually useless (Germay, France, Italy) or outright hostile (Hungary). The other EU and NATO members will chip in when and where they feel they can and it is in their interests.

So you will not be surprised that I think the assessments that The Daily Beast reporting refers to is spot on!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

🐕Dog Sapper Patron received reinforcements

Two drones – air reconnaissance and submarine – will help Patron and his colleagues in demining the occupied territories.

The equipment was handed over to SES units by Rinat Akhmetov's DTEK. pic.twitter.com/m2H6MT0TIR

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) June 22, 2022

And four footed backup too!

A working dog 🐕in #Ukraine 🇺🇦 trained like patron to sniff out mines 💣 #StandWithUkraine #UkraineRussianWar #dogs pic.twitter.com/FFl3VueUZx

— Steven Thomas (@aNdr0iz) June 22, 2022

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today was a day of extremely active foreign policy activity – almost a marathon of phone conversations. We are increasing the number of those who stand for Ukraine’s candidacy and adding confidence that the decision on Friday will be positive.

Slovakia. In a conversation with Prime Minister Heger, we coordinated our positions on the eve of the session of the European Council.

Lithuania. I thanked President Nausėda for the decision of the Three Seas Initiative Summit to grant Ukraine the status of a partner-participant. We also coordinated our steps.

Hungary. There was a very fruitful conversation with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. I invited him to visit Ukraine and thanked him for the important support for our sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state. We agreed to develop cooperation in the energy sector.

Portugal. We agreed with Prime Minister António Costa to involve his country’s experience in our rapprochement with the European Union.

Next – Denmark. I expressed gratitude for supporting Ukraine, including with weapons. I also noted the speech of Mrs. Frederiksen in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, which took place today.

Spain. In a conversation with Prime Minister Sánchez I noted that our cooperation would strengthen both Ukraine and the entire European Union. The possible outcome of the NATO Summit in Madrid, which will take place in late June, was discussed.

Ireland. I noted Ireland’s active support for our European integration and invited Irish Prime Minister Martin to visit Ukraine.

Croatia. I am confident that we can expand our cooperation both bilaterally and at the level of European structures. I thanked Prime Minister Plenković for his support of Ukraine.

I was happy to see in Kyiv a great friend of our state – Prime Minister of Luxembourg Bettel. And I would like to draw your attention once again to the assistance from Luxembourg. 15% of the defense budget of this state – this was a contribution to the defense of Ukraine. Both the greatness and the nobility of the state are immediately felt.

Today, Mr. Bettel visited the cities of the Kyiv region that had been liberated from the occupiers. I am grateful to him for his sincere understanding of our people and for Luxembourg’s readiness to take part in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.

My schedule for tomorrow is as busy as today. I will do my best to ensure that the historic decision of the European Union is adopted. This is important for us.

By the way, today, without delay, I signed the law on ratification of the Istanbul Convention adopted yesterday. Protecting all people from violence and discrimination is our principle.

In all negotiations, I always emphasize that the seventh package of the European Union sanctions is needed as soon as possible. Russia must feel a constant increase in pressure for the war and for its aggressive anti-European policy. Another Russian threat to Lithuania, another wave of energy pressure, another batch of lies from Russian officials about the food crisis are all arguments to agree on the seventh package of sanctions.

The situation on the frontline is without significant changes. With the help of tactical moves, the Ukrainian army is strengthening its defense in the Luhansk region, which is really the toughest area right now. The occupiers are also putting serious pressure on the Donetsk direction. In the Kharkiv region there is brutal and cynical Russian artillery shelling. It will not give anything to the occupiers, but the Russian army is deaf to any rationality. It simply destroys, simply kills – in this way it shows its command that it is not standing still. In the south we defend our Mykolaiv region, our Zaporizhzhia, and gradually liberate the Kherson region.

And just as actively as we fight for a positive decision of the European Union on the candidacy for Ukraine, we fight every day for the supply of modern weapons for our country. We do not decrease our activity for a single day. The lives of thousands of people depend directly on the speed of our partners – on the speed of implementation of their decisions to help Ukraine.

Today I signed two major decrees on awarding our defenders. At the request of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 210 combatants were awarded, 3 of them posthumously. At the request of the Minister of Internal Affairs, 255 warriors of the National Guard of Ukraine were awarded, 41 of them posthumously, 41 border guards, 12 of them posthumously, and 45 policemen.

And I want you to realize that when I talk about signing such decrees, it’s not just a routine and not something mechanical. It is only thanks to the mass courage and wisdom of our people on the battlefield that Ukraine lives and can really count on victory.

Eternal glory to all who fight for our state!

Eternal memory to all who gave lives for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

A lot of this week’s focus for Ukraine, in addition to what is happening on the battlefield, is going to be on the vote on EU candidate status. One of the reasons that the Ukrainian government pushed the ratification of the Istanbul Convention through the Verkhovna Rada was to remove the issue as a potential impediment to being granted candidate status.

For those wondering, the Istanbul Convention is more properly called the Council of Europe Convention On Preventing and Combating Violence Against Women and Domestic Violence. The full English text can be found at this link. As defined in Article 1 of the convention, its purpose is to:

Article 1 – Purposes of the Convention
1 The purposes of this Convention are to:
a protect women against all forms of violence, and prevent, prosecute and eliminate
violence against women and domestic violence;
b contribute to the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women and promote
substantive equality between women and men, including by empowering women;
c design a comprehensive framework, policies and measures for the protection of and
assistance to all victims of violence against women and domestic violence;
d promote international co-operation with a view to eliminating violence against women
and domestic violence;
e provide support and assistance to organisations and law enforcement agencies to
effectively co-operate in order to adopt an integrated approach to eliminating violence
against women and domestic violence.
2 In order to ensure effective implementation of its provisions by the Parties, this Convention
establishes a specific monitoring mechanism.

Article 2 – Scope of the Convention
1 This Convention shall apply to all forms of violence against women, including domestic
violence, which affects women disproportionately.

2 Parties are encouraged to apply this Convention to all victims of domestic violence. Parties
shall pay particular attention to women victims of gender-based violence in implementing the
provisions of this Convention.
3 This Convention shall apply in times of peace and in situations of armed conflict

Ukraine’s MOD posted an operational update today! (emphasis mine)

The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 18.00 on June 21, 2022

The one hundred eighteenth (118) day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.

No significant changes in the activities of units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus have been recorded in the Volyn and Polissya areas. The threat of missile strikes from the territory of this country remains.

In the Siversky direction, the enemy continues the engineering equipment of the border areas and mining. He fired mortars and artillery at the settlements of Seredyna-Buda, Myropillya, Yunakivka, Sumy oblast, and Hremyach in the Chernihiv oblast.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted air reconnaissance in the areas of the settlements of Ruska Lozova, Cherkaska Lozova and Pytomnyk. Artillery shelling was recorded near Kharkiv, Peremoha, Verkhnyi Saltiv, Staryi Saltiv, Chepil, Rubizhne and Stara Hnylytsia. In addition, MLRS was used in the districts of Korobochkine, Mospanove and Kutuzivka.

In the Slovyansk direction, the enemy focuses its main efforts on maintaining previously occupied positions, conducting defense.

Artillery shelling was recorded in the areas of the settlements of Bohorodichne, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Hrushuvakha, Dolyna, Petrivske, Zavhorodne, Protopopivka, Pryshyb, Karnaukhivka, Vernopillya, Chervone, Dovhenke and Krasnopillya. The occupiers launched an air strike near Dibrivne.

In the Donetsk direction, the enemy regrouped in order to strengthen for further action in the Bakhmut direction. In addition, the formation of consolidated units was identified.

Thus, in connection with significant losses, the reorganization of two battalion tactical groups from the units of the 5th Combined Arms Army, which lost their combat capability, into one consolidated BTGr was noted. Also, according to available information, the enemy brought units of the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps to restore combat capability.

In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy did not take active action, firing at the positions of our troops with mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Donetsk, Starodubivka, Mykolaivka and Pryshib.

Fighting continues in the Siverodonetsk direction in the city of Siverodonetsk.

The enemy fired from tanks and artillery near Siverodonetsk, Lysychansk, Voronovo, Myrna Dolyna and Hirske.

The Ukrainian soldiers competently repulsed the enemy’s reconnaissance attempt by fighting in the directions of Metolkine-Voronovo and Metolkine-Sirotyne. The enemy retreated.

The occupiers are consolidating in the settlement of Ustynivka, are conducting an offensive in the direction of Bila Hora, have partial success, and hostilities continue.

In the direction of Toshkivka – Pidlisne, the enemy captured the settlements of Pidlisne and Myrna Dolyna, consolidated on the occupied frontiers. Also, has partial success in the area of the settlement of Hirske.

The Ukrainian soldiers successfully repulsed the assault in the direction of Vysoke.

In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy fired on the areas of Berestove and Komyshuvakha. It led the offensive in the direction of Aleksandropil – Komyshuvakha. It was unsuccessful, he left.

The enemy did not take active action in the Avdiivka, Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia areas. It fired on the territories near Krasnohorivka, Hostre, Novoandriyivka, Huliaipilske and Novosilka.

In the direction of the South Buh, the enemy, in order to deplete the personnel and destroy the fortifications, carried out fire on the positions of our troops and conducted air reconnaissance of UAVs.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!

Glory to Ukraine!

There’s something interesting in this operational updates and the few others the Ukrainian MOD has posted over the past two weeks: not a lot of mention of the Ukrainian counterattack in Kherson. I covered that a counteroffensive had begun in the update on 11 June, but have seen very little new coverage of it in news sources. This was the only reference to Kherson in the Ukrainian MOD’s operational update on 19 JUN, which posted after I did the update here and would’ve included last night had I not taken it off:

russian occupiers are stepping up the air defense system in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region.

What I have been seeing, however, is references to and reporting of an increase in partisan underground activity in Kherson directed at the Russian occupiers and Ukrainian collaborators. Such as:

The surviving soldier has been hospitalized in Russian-occupied Crimea, the command reported.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 20, 2022

And The Telegraph reported on 19 Jun about some of these partisan attacks:

Kremlin-controlled puppet government claims attacks are disrupting peace in the city by ‘terrorising its residents

Ukrainian rebels attempted to assassinate a local prison boss in Russian-held Kherson, the city’s puppet government has said.

Ukrainian media reported on Saturday that Yevhen Sobolev, who heads a prison in Kherson, was injured when a bomb attached to a tree went off as he parked his car.

A video posted on Saturday showed Mr Sobolev’s white luxury car mangled from an explosion that was so powerful, it caused the windows of a nearby apartment block to shatter.

The only other real references to the actual Kherson counteroffensive, as opposed to an increase in partisan activity, that I’ve seen from reliable, verifiable sources are in these two twitter threads:

Ukrainian army is further advancing in Kherson region, pushing Russians back with some positions of about 10-12 km north-west from Kherson. Russian are not able to stop Ukrainians there. I do not tweet details, as there is enough detailed reports, just this general info. Big news

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) June 18, 2022

• Russians effectively need to chose, if they want to hold Kherson or to advance in Donbas. They have probably chosen the latter, but I am not sure they are capable to achieve this goal. In Donbas they through into fight forcibly conscripted Ukrainians from “LDNR and old tanks.
• For me, the situation is already beyond the turning point, with no chances for Russia to win. Still, the fight will be tough, Russians still have manpower and equipment, and Ukrainians remain massively outgunned. That is why Ukraine needs tons of arms asap, this will save lives.

And:

Whilst everyone has been talking about the Donbas, something much more significant has been happening in the South.

The Ukrainians are mounting a counter-attack towards Kherson. This has been going on for about three weeks. pic.twitter.com/7NUQh520LK

— Dr Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) June 18, 2022

This is a map heavy thread, so you really need to clock through. But I will copy and paste these tweets as I think they help explain why there’s little news coming out about the Kherson counteroffensive in the news media:

I’ll come to that in a bit, but first I want to make some assessments about why everyone is going on about Donbas.

Firstly, it is where Putin has declared his objectives to lie – taking the whole of the Donbas is the Kremlin’s recently downsized objective in this war.

Secondly, the Ukrainians have hyped it to the max and are using it as a lever to drag more weapons out of the West (“this is where the future of Ukraine will be determined” etc – if only you would give us some more rockets). TBF I’d be doing exactly the same thing if I were them

Thirdly, there are loads of reporters there, like bees around a honeypot. They’ve been in the Donbas ever since Putin announced it as his goal Previously they were in Kyiv, but then moved We get a distorted view of the whole conflict, because of the density of reporters there.

Fourthly – there is a significant loss of life occurring there, both of Russian and of Ukrainian troops. Who knows how many, but maybe 150 a day each? Understandably this drives media attention.

But as I’ve said previously – the south is where the real strategic play is – around Kherson. Why?

Click across to read the rest because you really need to see the maps for the analysis to make sense.

I suspect that the reports of increased partisan underground activity in occupied Kherson, as well as other Russian occupied parts of Ukraine, are part of a hybrid strategy. The first part is the war that is being reported on: primarily conventional Ukrainian forces plus the Territorial Defenders and the various International Legion elements attacking the Russian military along that very long line of engagement that winds from the east all the way around to the south. The second part is the use of Ukrainian partisans, most likely in coordination with/being coordinated by Ukrainian Special Operations and Military Intelligence carrying out partisan attacks on the Russian occupiers and Ukrainian collaborators behind the lines. If this is the case, and I’m relatively certain – as in I’m a well informed professional observer looking at it from the outside with no specific insider knowledge – that the Ukrainians are basically hitting the Russians on the battlefield, as well as coming, going, and where they’re living in occupied Ukraine. The purpose of this type of hybrid strategy is to make it so the Russians do not feel safe at the front. They shouldn’t feel safe in the rear. They should not feel safe in a house. Or with a mouse. On a plane or in a train. They should not feel safe anywhere!

I expect the partisan guerilla activity to continue and increase.

Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today:

And here’s their updated map for today too:

As you can see, at the macro level, there’s still not a lot of movement in the overall sense.

Here’s former NAVSECGRU Squadron Commander Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent analysis and updated map of the battle for Sievierodonetsk:

SIEVRODONETSK: /2250 UTC 21 JUN/ It appears that RU units may have reached the Donets River at Pavohrad. A tactical withdraw by UKR forces becomes increasingly likely, with a new defensive position established on the west banks of the Donets. pic.twitter.com/LLjtK3DBSL

— Chuck Pfarrer (@ChuckPfarrer) June 21, 2022

I know everyone is jonesing for more hot logistics information and analysis, but I’m going to hold off for now as I want to go lie down!

But first, your daily Patron!!!!

Here’s a lovely painting of Patron posted by the Ukrainian artist AIZIK:

Patron the bomb-sniffing dog
RT to bless your timeline pic.twitter.com/wWW0dwQf6Z

— AIZIK💙💛 (@aizctxt) June 21, 2022

And a video from Patron’s TikTok page:

@patron__dsns

Мій маленький секрет😌✨ #песпатрон #патрон #славаукраїні

♬ Angeleyes (Sped Up Version) – tuna (SVT HOT)

Open thread!