This year we must and will reach the maximum level of Ukrainian defense production throughout the entire period of independence – address by the President of Ukraine

18 March 2024 – 19:54

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

I held a meeting of the Staff. There was a report by the Commander-in-Chief on the main areas of operations. Kupyansk direction, our directions in Donetsk region, southern directions. There was an analysis of the dynamics in terms of ammunition – logistics in the army has become significantly more efficient. There were reports from the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Strategic Industries on contracts for the supply of weapons and ammunition from both partner countries and domestic manufacturers. This year we must and will reach the maximum level of Ukrainian defense production throughout the entire period of independence. And every year we will consistently expand this potential, which is an obvious strategic perspective for Ukraine. I am grateful to everyone who contributes to this, giving all their energy, and to everyone who truly helps – every leader, every state, every company in the world that stands with Ukraine. The Staff also listened to the government’s report on the construction of fortifications – all resources are provided.

A few things today about our communication with partners. I spoke with the President-elect of Indonesia. We appreciate the relations that have already been achieved between our countries. It was in Indonesia that the Ukrainian Peace Formula was first presented. And since then, the Peace Formula has gradually become global, bringing together the world’s majority. States and leaders from all continents have already joined the work on the Formula, and we are now preparing the first inaugural Global Peace Summit. And today I invited Indonesia to participate in it. Senator Lindsey Graham, a representative of the Republican Party, visited Ukraine today. We talked, among other things, about the importance of freedom and democracy winning now, in this war, here in Ukraine, because otherwise Russian aggression and chaos will spread around the world. I informed the Senator about the situation on the battlefield and the key needs of our Defense Forces. The needs are quite obvious. Patriots, ATACMS, F-16s. And, of course, artillery. We discussed further cooperation and support for Ukraine. All our actions must be far-sighted, long-range, and as effective as possible to enable all free nations to live on in freedom and security. I am grateful to everyone in the United States who feels as we do that freedom must always prevail.

Today I would also like to thank the leadership of the European Union and all member states for establishing a new Fund to assist Ukraine within the European Peace Facility. The amount is 5 billion euros, which will be used to support our defense efforts this year. We also expect this Fund to become part of a general security agreement between Ukraine and the European Union.

I am grateful to all our people who fight and work for Ukraine and Ukrainians, who support each of our cities and communities. And especially to those who are currently having the hardest times: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and our Odesa. We are doing our best to give Ukraine and each of our regions more protection and more strength. I thank everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

This guy!

he voted against the supplemental with aid for Ukraine last month https://t.co/Infvp3AcVd

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 18, 2024

This is a problem:

I can confirm that I've observed evidence of Russians having access to Western satellite imagery, including non-commercial images. It wasn't just one, but multiple providers of satellite imagery. https://t.co/VauuTRqXxG

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 18, 2024

From The Atlantic:

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky got unusually testy over the failure of the United States to deliver anti-missile and anti-drone systems. On March 2, a strike in Odesa had killed 12 people, five of them children. “The world has enough missile-defense systems,” he said. Debates over funding have kept those systems from being delivered. “Delaying the supply of weapons to Ukraine, missile-defense systems to protect our people, leads, unfortunately, to such losses.”

Others in Ukraine’s government, however, have expressed an even deeper frustration. What if Americans, in addition to not sending defensive assistance to Ukraine, are sending offensive assistance to Russia? A Ukrainian military source told me he believes that Russia’s long-range strikes, by cruise missiles that are among the most costly weapons in its nonnuclear arsenal, are aimed using satellite imagery provided by U.S. companies. He says the sequence is clear: A satellite snaps pictures of a site, then some days or weeks later a missile lands. Sometimes another satellite is sent to capture additional images afterward, perhaps to check the extent of the damage. “The number of coincidences, where the images are followed by strikes, is too high to be random,” the source told me. (I agreed not to name him because he is not authorized to speak publicly.)

Sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence. But the suspicious cases have added up, and because many satellite-imagery companies offer a backlist of archived images, marked with dates and coordinates, it’s possible to browse tens of thousands of images taken of Ukraine and notice suggestive patterns. In the week before April 2, 2022, about a month after Russia’s initial invasion, images of a remote airfield outside Myrhorod, Ukraine, were requested from American companies at least nine times. Myrhorod is not a particularly interesting place, apart from that airfield. On April 2, missiles landed there. In the week that followed, someone asked for images of the airfield again. Satellite imaging has preceded strikes in urban areas as well: In Lviv, just before March 26, 2022, someone tasked a satellite with looking at a factory used for military-armor production. It, too, was struck. In late January of this year, someone commissioned a commercial-satellite company to take fresh images of Kyiv, just before the city was hit by a missile barrage.

There are hundreds of such cases. The Ukrainians say they monitor flyovers by Russia’s own satellites. But until recently, they assumed that the satellites of allies would not be available for Russia’s advantage. “Before about six months ago, we couldn’t imagine that private companies would be selling satellite imagery in sensitive areas,” the Ukrainian military official told me. But “it has become hard to believe that [these coincidences] are random.” Russian satellite capabilities are limited, and Ukraine’s are too. Anyone who has seen the social-media footage of ragtag infantrymen huddled in trenches is aware that this war is being fought by two poor countries. But with subterfuge, even poor countries can try to rent the services of rich ones—or, more precisely, the services of the private companies that operate within the rich ones’ borders.

Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Kateryna Chernohorenko, sent me a statement noting that U.S. satellite companies have supported Ukraine. But she said that her ministry’s experts suspect that Russia “purchases satellite imagery through third-party companies” that do business with Western satellite-imagery companies, and that these images “could be used in armed aggression against Ukraine.”

Ordering imagery from these companies is simpler than you might think. Stale, blurry images are free on Google Maps. Fresh, crisp imagery of something you may or may not wish to blow to smithereens costs a little more. A site called spymesat.com tracks various companies’ satellites and will give a cost estimate for a brand-new image taken the next time one of them passes over the location you choose. In the business, ordering a satellite to take an image is called “tasking.” The companies offer astonishingly fast turnaround times, at costs in the low thousands of dollars. Faster turnaround and higher resolution raise the cost. I zoomed in on the apartment where I stayed in Odesa early in the war, and the site told me that a U.S. company would let me task its satellite for $1,200 when it passed in just a few hours. If I went there now and painted BOMB ME in huge letters on the roof, the paint would still be wet for its close-up.

For even less, one can order archival imagery from Ukraine—some of it very recent, and of militarily significant areas. The city of Zaporizhzhia is about an hour’s drive from the front line. An Atlantic staffer requested a recent satellite photo of that city from a reseller that works with Planet, a San Francisco-based commercial satellite company. The staffer gave the reseller a credit-card number and a name, and received a high-resolution image just minutes later.

Some targets are stationary: You can’t move an air base. But even those are worth monitoring persistently, sometimes weeks or even months before an intended attack. A cruise missile costs about $1 million, so a kopeck-pinching government would happily pay just a few thousand dollars for recent evidence of how a target is being used, what’s there, and what time of day is optimal for maximum damage. Watching a parking lot outside a factory or barracks can tell you when the building is full and when it is empty. A strike on a full building kills more than a strike on an empty one, so these images can theoretically multiply the Ukrainian body count, at minimal extra cost. Many of the images tasked in Ukraine—including many of sites of future strikes—show only cloud cover. These very expensive images of clouds are still much cheaper than another cruise missile.

Two of the largest commercial-satellite-imaging companies in the United States are Maxar and Planet. Both have produced imagery of Ukrainian sites later struck by Russian missiles. Both stressed that they vet their customers diligently, and that they have observed the U.S. regulation that has forbidden transactions with Russia since the beginning of the war. Maxar declined to comment on specific cases of suspicious imagery orders in Ukraine but said it “ceased all business with Russian entities, including resellers, in early March 2022.” Planet said it was dedicated to providing imagery to “responsible actors such as governments, aid and relief organizations, and media,” with “diligent operations to avoid the potential for misuse and abuse.” A spokesperson from Planet told me that after a review of more than a dozen cases of prestrike tasking, the company “did not find evidence of misuse or abuse.” The spokesperson declined to comment further or explain how Planet had exonerated itself in these cases.

Neither company was willing to say whether it had ever detected instances when it suspected that Russia had used its satellites, nor was either willing to describe how it ensured that its customers were not in fact Russian front companies. Maxar and Planet would not say how they would respond if they noticed a suspicious pattern—image tasking, missile strike on a Ukrainian airfield, follow-up tasking. “We regularly conduct thorough reviews” of security, a Maxar spokesperson told me, and have implemented “more stringent controls” for Ukraine imagery.

Sometimes the tasking is benign. If you deal in commodities, you might peek at Odesa’s port to see whether ships are loaded with grain, and whether the world’s grain supply is about to rise. You might also order an image of a wheat field 150 miles north, in Kropyvnytskyi, to see whether the crop is harvested early or late. Even sites of military significance can be of interest to neutral or friendly entities—including the Ukrainian government itself, media organizations, and humanitarian groups that need accurate pictures of the conflict to do their work.

An executive of a firm that analyzes satellite imagery told me that the firm noticed a pattern dating back to 2022, by cross-referencing tasked images against actual attacks. (The executive requested anonymity because the firm does business with the same satellite companies whose images it reviewed, and does not want its relationships to sour over bad publicity.) The executive identified more than 350 Russian missile strikes in the first year of the war, all deep within Ukrainian territory. I showed a selection of cases to Jack O’Connor, who teaches geospatial intelligence at Johns Hopkins University, and he wrote back, “The data suggests that the Russians are doing what the Ukrainians suspect.” He was, however, cautious about what one can infer with certainty, no matter what patterns one sees. “There is no direct causal relation that can be proven from this data.”

In any particular case, it’s impossible to be sure whether the tasking was done with malign intent. That is especially true when the imagery captures a large area. (Maxar, for example, produces very-high-resolution images of whole neighborhoods or even towns.) But the correlations are there. On February 27, 2022, days after the outbreak of war, Maxar was tasked with taking an image near the Belarusian border. On March 6, 2022, a Russian missile hit buildings in Ovruch—which happened to be dead in the middle of the previous week’s tasked image. (Maxar declined to say whether it had taken these images, but a source with access to the company’s catalog confirmed that the images were in it.) On May 18, 2022, with the war in full swing, someone asked Maxar to look at a large square in the town of Lubny. Two days later, a missile struck Lubny, and soon after, someone asked Maxar to take another look, in the area of the original image where the missile had just hit.

The Ukrainian military official acknowledged the possibility that the tasking was just a benevolent citizen or group with curiosity about obscure Ukrainian military assets and armor factories. And he said he had no reason to believe that the companies themselves favor Russia in the war. Planet and Maxar both do a great deal of business with the U.S. government, and intentionally helping Russia would jeopardize contracts and invite regulation.

But the executive I spoke with said that to keep the imagery out of Russian hands, the satellite companies would have to control not just which customers they accept tasking from but also the resale of those images. The executive said the U.S. companies’ process of vetting their customers was “detailed.” Industry experts stressed that the companies have contracts with the U.S. government, and would not gain from doing business with Russia under the table. Although Maxar insists that it no longer does business with Russian entities, including resellers, it did not reply when I asked whether its resellers’ customers also stopped doing business with Russian entities.

The U.S. companies’ desire to avoid doing business with Russia, directly or indirectly, is not in serious doubt. A former U.S. official who worked on commercial-satellite regulation told me that, early in the war, the companies regularly approached the government seeking help to determine whether their customers might be working for the Russians. “It was a confusing time,” he said, “and then companies got better at vetting their customers.” He said the companies had implemented stronger procedures since then. Skies over Ukraine have become crowded with image-capturing satellites. “There are many cooks in the kitchen,” he said—“sometimes five U.S. government agencies at once,” all seeking imagery from commercial and government satellites. And it is very hard to figure out who wants images, and for what purpose. “It wouldn’t surprise me at all that some of those images coincide in space and time with Russian military activities.”

The Ukrainian official told me he would just “like to see these images moderated,” possibly by giving the Ukrainian military a chance to see what images are tasked before they’re taken. He added that “the companies should look very carefully at the records of who has been buying these images,” and probably involve local spy agencies in tracking companies suspected of funneling the images to Moscow. Other Ukrainians I spoke with suggested that instead of blacklisting certain customers, the companies should develop a limited white list of approved taskers, and add to it only when someone is clearly not a Russian agent. (Planet and Maxar did not directly reply when I asked if they had a blacklist or white list, and if so, what one had to do to get on it.)

Much more at the link!

Novomykhailivka, Donestk Oblast:

The "Bermuda Triangle" for russian armored equipment in the Donetsk region. Many russian tanks and IFVs try to attack Ukrainian positions near Novomykhailivka village, but nobody returns.
This time, our defenders destroyed 3 tanks and 4 IFVs; also, 6 armored vehicles were… pic.twitter.com/03cdwFaPOv

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 18, 2024

The “Bermuda Triangle” for russian armored equipment in the Donetsk region. Many russian tanks and IFVs try to attack Ukrainian positions near Novomykhailivka village, but nobody returns.
This time, our defenders destroyed 3 tanks and 4 IFVs; also, 6 armored vehicles were damaged.

📹: 79th Air Assault Brigade

The Avdiivka front:

Say hello to 🇺🇦 FPV drone.
Say goodbye to 🇺🇦 land.

📹: 109th @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/OZw82bmDBt

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 18, 2024

Stugna-P ATGM strike on Russian BMP. Avdiivka front, by the 47th Brigade. https://t.co/SNABJSPkkU pic.twitter.com/K6EScBjkR0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 18, 2024

Moscow:

War without end:

Putin takes a brief victory lap. He says the record high turnout is because society is rallying around his war in Ukraine.

The main goals of his next six years in office are "achieving the goals of the special operation and strengthening our defense capacity and armed forces" pic.twitter.com/cCZnuACRqw

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 17, 2024

Now that the "election" is done, expect acceleration & escalation from #Putin

Not just against #Ukraine, but against Western interests generally – globally@mkimmage & I recently took a deep dive into Russia's global anti-Western project @WarOnTheRocks:https://t.co/hUgTMzTicb

— Hanna Notte (@HannaNotte) March 18, 2024

From War on the Rocks:

“It is clear that the main element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union,” George Kennan wrote in 1947, “must be that of long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of Russian expansive tendencies.” When Kennan devised this famous sentence, he did not only have Europe in mind: Asia and the Middle East were catalysts of early Cold War contestation. Soviet expansive tendencies proceeded from the universal sway of communism and from the legacy of the Russian empire, which had been active in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. In 2024, with Russian expansive tendencies once again in evidence, the global thrust of Kennan’s thinking is as salient as his recommendation that U.S. policy cohere around the idea of containment.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was meant to prove that the United States and its allies do not write the rules internationally. To prove this point in Europe, the heart of the liberal international order, is to hasten the advent of a post-Western order globally. Russia has recalibrated its entire foreign policy to fit the needs of a long struggle. Prior to 2022, Russia was already expanding its trade and political relations with non-Western countries and tangling with its Western counterparts in international fora. Since 2022, Russia has dramatically expanded these pre-existing trend lines, while improvising at every turn.

The four pillars of Russia’s global foreign policy are self-preservation, decompartmentalization, fragmentation, and integration. Russia has secured lifelines for its economy and defense enterprises, while navigating to retain its military influence outside of Europe — successfully in Syria and the Sahel and less successfully in the South Caucasus. On a host of policy issues, Russia has abandoned compartmentalization with Western states. Waging a war of narratives, gumming up legacy multilateral institutions, and pushing for the de-dollarization of international finance, a diplomatically hyperactive Russia has sought to fragment the existing international order. Russia has also been integrating partners into clubs that exclude Western states (like the BRICS alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and working with alliances that are openly anti-Western (like the new Alliance of the Sahel States).

Russia’s progress has been substantial enough in these four domains to give it the upper hand in the war and to place the Russian economy on a non-Western foundation. Russia’s successes have not just been a matter of savviness: the Kremlin has benefited from the West’s many mistakes in rallying global public opinion. At the same time, Russia’s redirected foreign policy generates costs and risks to the Kremlin. For Russia, much depends on the war. Victory in Ukraine would prove that Russia is an autonomous global actor capable of thwarting formidable adversaries. Should the war linger indefinitely or should Ukraine surge forward, Russia’s extreme anti-Westernism may start to look short-sighted, accident-prone, and self-defeating.

The United States and its European allies should respond to global Russia with a multi-part containment strategy. One task is analytical: to connect the dots in Russia’s global foreign policy. Another is to confront Russia selectively — where its activities are especially malign. A third is to define its own global outreach positively and not simply as a default strategy for opposing Russia (or China). Most importantly, the United States should help Ukraine to frustrate Russia’s European war aims. These aims are central to Russia’s global aspirations.

Self-Preservation

To deter Russia in 2022, the West had bet on markets. It had counted on its own centrality to the worlds of finance, technological innovation, and commerce, hoping that the threat of massive sanctions would restrain Russian President Vladimir Putin. Once the war began, the West wagered that Russia would be so damaged by sanctions that either its war machine would malfunction or a frustrated population would curtail Putin’s ambitions. An undeterred Russia preserved lifelines for its economy and military machine, leveraging an already robust relationship with China and many other bilateral ties in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Russia found markets for its energy products in Asia and reliable sources of weaponry in Iran and North Korea. Turkey, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus emerged as conduits for the “roundabout trade” of sanctioned goods into Russia.

For Putin, Russia’s economic break with the West may not have been an opportunity cost of the war. It may have been one of the war’s strategic objectives. In the 1990s, Russia’s deep dependence on the West hemmed in its foreign policy. Because Russia relied on the West for loans and for investment, then-President Boris Yeltsin could do nothing to halt NATO expansion. Having shown in 2014 and again in 2022 that Russia’s economy can ride out Western sanctions, Putin has reduced the efficacy of future Western sanctions, a virtuous circle for him. Russia’s growing reliance on Iran and North Korea, often dismissed as technological backwaters, has given it real-time advantages vis-á-vis Ukraine.

While pouring resources into Ukraine, Russia has not stood still elsewhere. In Syria, Russian troops relinquished several positions to groups affiliated with their partner Iran after February 2022. At the same time, Moscow pushed for Syria’s normalization with Arab states and Turkey, hoping to attract the reconstruction funding for Syria that Russia itself cannot provide. Both measures have been aimed at protecting Russia’s influence. In Africa, Russia has similarly ensured its staying power, most recently by restructuring and rebranding the Wagner private military company into the Africa Corps, which the Ministry of Defense holds on a tight leash. Only in the South Caucasus, where Russia’s nominal ally Armenia mourns the forced exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, has the war in Ukraine visibly dented its military clout.

Decompartmentalization

Before 2022, compartmentalization in Russia’s relations with the West was already an endangered practice. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the United States had suspended cooperation with Russia on a range of issues — to punish it and to elicit a change in Russian foreign policy. Yet Moscow and Western capitals managed to insulate areas of critical interest from their mutual grievances, continuing to talk about the future of nuclear arms control, the Arctic, or ways to bring much-needed humanitarian aid to Syria.

With the 2022 war, Russia has become much more categorical. Moscow suspended its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction (New START) Treaty and rejected multiple overtures from the Joseph Biden administration to resume discussions on nuclear arms control. With this, Russia is sending several signals: that something resembling a state of war obtains between Russia and the West; that for Russia to give an inch on any one issue might mean undermining itself on other issues; and that winning the war in Ukraine is a priority far above the value that cooperation on arms control, climate change, or the Arctic might provide for Russia.

Putin’s willingness to jettison any collaborative agenda with the West creates dangers for Russia itself. Arms control, not to mention setting global norms for climate change, is an effort that makes Russia safer and improves Russians’ quality of life. Having emboldened (near-nuclear) Iran and (nuclear) North Korea, the Kremlin cannot be certain that these countries will forever be ruled by regimes friendly to Moscow. A medium-sized economy, Russia does not have endless resources to compete in a multipolar nuclear arms race — one that its own policies may well be fueling. Just as compartmentalization had once contained conflicts between Russia and the West, a global escalation with the West could rebound against Russia. Should current tensions in the Middle East ignite an all-out war, for example, Russia would struggle to protect its presence in Syria.

Fragmentation

Ever since Foreign Minister Yevgeniy Primakov’s celebration of “multipolarity” in the mid-1990s, post–Cold War Russia has taken issue with the West’s global dominance. In the years leading up to the 2022 invasion, Russia had chipped away at support for existing multilateral institutions and regimes. It propagated a narrative about a dysfunctional “rules-based international order,” Russia’s derogatory reference to presumed Western hegemony. For years, Russian diplomats lamented that Western states were bending the rules in organizations like the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

Since 2022, Russia has upped the ante. Moscow has intelligently exploited global discontent with the West. By arguing that the West has been invading sovereign countries and redrawing the map since time immemorial, Russia has deflected criticism of its war against Ukraine. Hamas’ attack against Israel on Oct. 7 and its aftereffects have given Moscow new tools of persuasion. While the West backs Israel’s assault on Gaza, Russia has been watching from the sidelines. It can amplify a global outrage that would be proliferating with or without Russia. Without a blueprint, Russia jumps on the West’s travails whenever and wherever they materialize.

Russia has also grown more obstructionist in multilateral institutions. Amid heightened acrimony at U.N. agencies, Russian diplomats have been creative in causing paralysis, tabling texts to compete with Western-backed resolutions and causing procedural hiccups. Russian diplomats have used the U.N. rulebook “as if they were sleeping with it under their pillow,” according to one official. At the U.N. Security Council, the fragile modus vivendi that had still held between Russia and Western states in 2022 also became more precariousover time. The paralysis cannot be blamed on Russia alone: Western diplomats took their grievances with Russia over Ukraine to each and every forum, alienating counterparts from the Global South. Post-invasion demands by Western states that the Global South fall in line with their position on Ukraine have backfired spectacularly.

Finally, Russia’s intent to fragment Western-led international systems includes international finance. Hit with unprecedented Western sanctions and cut off from the financial messaging infrastructure of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, Russia has embraced the idea of de-dollarization, although Russia’s reliance on the yuan and rupee has come with problems. While the Kremlin dreams about the BRICS moving toward a single currency, practical obstacles remain, and Russia has failed to induce other countries to bypass the U.S. dollar. Here, Russia’s push for fragmentation has made little headway thus far.

Integration

The most confounding of Russia’s global projects is the integration of non-Western structures of partnership and allegiance. Moscow has labored to expand both the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, cheering growing integration among what Russian diplomats term the “global majority.” As chair of the recently enlarged BRICS, Russia is planning to host over 200 events this year, including a ministerial in Nizhny Novgorod and a summit in Kazan.

Moscow is also exploring less institutionalized forms of integration. At Russia’s behest, synergies are emergingamong constellations of states that are hostile to the West. Russia’s ally Belarus and Iran are strengthening their defense cooperation. This spring, Russia will conduct routine joint naval drills with China and Iran, having also proposed similar three-way exercises with China and North Korea. China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are attempting to tie down the American Gulliver in intersecting crises and war zones. Synchronization is not necessarily gamed out in advance, but it is already having a cumulative effect. The United States faces the prospect of simultaneous security crises in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

In the Sahel, a region that continues to tip toward military dictatorships, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger signed a tripartite mutual defense pact in the fall. Amid their joint departure from the Economic Community of West African States, Moscow signaled its interest in enhancing cooperation with the Alliance of Sahel States. After recent successes in fighting in Mali, the Africa Corps has been invited into Burkina Faso and may well emerge in Niger. Successfully branding itself as the only external force serious about fighting terrorism, Russia is creating a new axis of partners.

Closer to home, Russia’s integration projects have foundered. For decades, Russia has been the leading force in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance made up of post-Soviet states that was established in 1992. In January 2022, the treaty had its moment in the spotlight when it successfully performed a regime maintenance operation amid protests in Kazakhstan, but since the invasion of Ukraine, it has failed to impress. When its members Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rekindled their longstanding border dispute in September 2022, the Collective Security Treaty Organization was unable to mediate. In the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it also played a muted role. An irritated Armenian government eventually turned to France and India for arms and held joint military exercises with the United States. In the economic sphere, Russia’s regional integration efforts have performed somewhat better. Amid the flourishing of Russia’s roundabout trade, the Eurasian Economic Union — designed to pursue a common market among Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia — witnessed a re-entanglement of business elites after February 2022.

A Balance Sheet

When Russia failed to take Kyiv and was pushed back in eastern and southern Ukraine in late 2022, low expectations crystallized for Russian foreign policy. The U.S. government identified Russia’s “strategic defeat” as the end state of its Ukraine policy. This optimism was premature — not just for the military configurations on Ukrainian territory, which have gradually begun to favor Russia, but also for Russia’s redesigned statecraft. Russia has been adept at the political economy of war, at styling itself as a David taking on the American Goliath, while thus far avoiding entanglement in costly blunders outside of Europe.

The open question for Russia’s foreign policy is whether its global ambitions are coherent. They are sustainable for Russia, though dangers for the Russian economy loom on the horizon. But if Russia’s improvisatory opportunism gives it agility, it also bespeaks a certain nihilism, as if Russian foreign policy exists for the war and not the war for some larger set of policy aims. This nihilism is most pronounced in Russia’s almost obsessive anti-Westernism, which globally is always in vogue but is too abstract and too empty a position on which to build anything really solid. It also makes for a lot of strange, disparate bedfellows.

Contending with a Global Russia

To recognize the scale of the challenge Russia represents is, first and foremost, to connect the dots of its global foreign policy. To diminish Russia’s sources of self-preservation, the United States should continue to close the loopholes on sanctions. Disrupting weapons transfers from Iran and North Korea will be a tall order, but other efforts to starve Russia’s war machine are having an effect — as shown by the growing number of foreign banks that are restricting their business with Russian clients. Although Russia’s military presence outside of Europe remains modest, the United States should counter Russia’s support for malign actors in the Middle East, where possible, while buttressing partner governments in Africa to limit the further expansion of Africa Corps. Since Washington cannot (and need not) take on Moscow everywhere, it should focus on those theaters where Russian military activities risk producing the greatest negative spillover effects.

The United States should not expect Russia to return to compartmentalization any time soon. Efforts at restraining a nuclear North Korea and preventing Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold will have to be done not just without, but also in opposition to, Russia. Washington should call on Russia to return to nuclear arms control talks before New START expires in 2026, while seriously planning for the eventuality that Putin will not cooperate.

Contending with Russia’s efforts to upend the international order and to advance its own integration projects will be very difficult. Washington’s support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s irresponsible government has further degraded trust in the West, elucidating a simple lesson: The more the United States and its allies have to offer the Global South in its terms, whatever those may be, and the more respect they show to the foreign policy autonomy of those countries, the more they will expose the many points of hollowness that inform Russian foreign policy. The power of example will in every case outshine the power of argument. The same is true for the power of negative example.

Most urgent is continued support for Ukraine. If Moscow wins the war, its efforts to remake international order will accelerate. A Russia in control of Ukraine would feel more self-confident, and it would suffer from fewer resource constraints. Its appeal as a partner to non-Western states would grow, while Western credibility in Europe and elsewhere would be in ruins. Russia’s global game runs through Ukraine. That is where it must be stopped.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Ukraine will now always have a strike force in the sky – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

16 March 2024 – 20:37

Dear Ukrainians,

Today, unfortunately, the number of fatalities has increased after the strike on Odesa: twenty-one lives have been taken. My condolences to the families and loved ones. Necessary assistance is provided to all the wounded. Local authorities and the Ministry of Internal Affairs are providing support.

There will definitely be our military responses to Russia. These weeks have demonstrated to many that the Russian war machine has vulnerabilities that we can reach with our weapons. I am grateful to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, and Defense Intelligence for their new Ukrainian long-range capability. I am equally grateful to our defense-industrial complex and everyone who works for Ukrainian strength. What our own drones are capable of is a true Ukrainian long-range capability. Ukraine will now always have a strike force in the sky.

I want to separately commend our warriors this week who are fighting on the ground on the front lines – every soldier, every commander, especially in those areas where the fighting is most intense. Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Donetsk region, near Kupyansk, in the South. I thank all our brigades, all combat units, who are destroying the occupier, giving us greater stability on the front. Today, I discussed the operational situation in detail with General Syrskyi: our capabilities, and existing threats. It is felt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are becoming stronger.

One more thing. We always have to celebrate every Ukrainian success – all our people who bring pride to Ukraine and Ukrainians. This week, our team returned from the Deaflympics in Türkiye. For the first time in our independence, our national Deaflympics team won the most gold medals in the team medal count. I had the opportunity to thank our athletes, coaches, and everyone who helped the team. I presented state awards. I am proud that our people are capable of overcoming all difficulties and, despite everything, capable of bringing results to Ukraine.

Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine, works, and dedicates their lives to ensuring that Ukraine wins. It will win. I am confident.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

On March 16, 2022, Russian occupiers attacked the Drama Theatre in Mariupol, where hundreds of civilians were hiding from shelling.

They dropped a bomb on the theater and were not stopped by the inscription "Children."

The exact number of victims is still not known – according… pic.twitter.com/sMtUkTKT8A

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 16, 2024

On March 16, 2022, Russian occupiers attacked the Drama Theatre in Mariupol, where hundreds of civilians were hiding from shelling.

They dropped a bomb on the theater and were not stopped by the inscription “Children.”

The exact number of victims is still not known – according to various reports – from 300 to 600 people.

Every Russian murderer must be held accountable for what he has done!

Eternal memory to those who died.

A Taurus update. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

To no one's surprise, it took around 24h for the secret information that was referenced in the parliamentary debate on Taurus to leak. This information pertains to the processing power required for inputting & processing targeting data. Some thoughts: 1/10https://t.co/FhQ8qlaP8T

— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) March 15, 2024

The notion that the Taurus targeting process necessitates large amounts processing power and data is not a new or secret revelation. Broadly speaking, there is a “simple” and an “extended” Taurus mission planning protocol. The two are also referenced in the leaked call. 2/10 

“Simple” mission planning typically involves waypoint navigation using GPS. While this simplifies the planning process, it also renders Taurus more vulnerable to countermeasures and reduces accuracy. 3/10 

“Extended” mission planning is more complex. Here you integrate topographical data for TERCOM, pictures for image-based navigation, data on enemy air defense positions, and more detailed models of your target. 4/10 

The probability of Taurus reaching and eliminating its target rises with the complexity of the mission planning process, as discussed in the leaked call. The greater the intricacy of the targeting process, the higher the level of training required by the Ukrainians. 5/10. 

Keep in mind that this kind of extended mission planning was feasible back in the early 2000s, so it doesn’t require supercomputer-level technology. It’s also entirely achievable to store the necessary data separately from the physical data processing machines. 6/10 

In the leaked call, officers discussed how Storm Shadow mission planning is conducted through “reach back.” This likely refers to accessing some data stored in the UK. This indicates that the UK helps Ukraine perform an extended mission planning process in Ukraine. 7/10 

Does this change anything? Absolutely not. Ukraine is fully capable of developing its own data processing infrastructure and obtaining its targeting own data, which they probably already have. Let’s not forget that Ukraine also has its own cruise missile program. 8/10 

The fact remains, that if there was political willingness to allow Ukraine to use Taurus, the government would find a solution that minimizes and potentially prevents any direct Bundeswehr involvement in Ukraine. The key issue is the lack of political will. 9/10 

This has been a savvy political move by the SPD. They invited high-ranking officers to a “secret” meeting where reporting was not allowed, talking about the scarcity of German equipment. It’s no surprise that this tactic influenced some uninformed members of parliament. 10/10 

Many thanks to @John_A_Ridge for reminding me that the United States developed a mission planning system for Tomahawk in the 1990s that can fit inside a van lol.

France:

The President of France Emmanuel Macron gave an interview to Ukrainian media.

Its main points:

On the role of France and his words on troops in Ukraine
🔹The role of France in the war in Ukraine is what Churchill has called "the nerve of war".

🔹We must bear collective… pic.twitter.com/hfTDk7dERK

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 16, 2024

The President of France Emmanuel Macron gave an interview to Ukrainian media.

Its main points:

On the role of France and his words on troops in Ukraine
🔹The role of France in the war in Ukraine is what Churchill has called “the nerve of war”.

🔹We must bear collective responsibility. We are ready for any challenge and if there comes another wave of escalation from Russia, we will be ready to react for the security of Ukraine and Europeans. But France will never initiate any kind of aggression.

🔹Ukraine must have clear visibility of the military aid calendar and walk confidently up to the moment when negotiations become possible.

On aid to Ukraine
🔹I will go to Berlin, speak to Chancellor Scholz and the Prime Minister of Poland. I am confident we will be able to allocate extra finances.

🔹We don’t have limits, we will react to how Russia reacts. I’m not going with advancing initiatives yet because this is not the spirit of collective solidarity.

On negotiations with Putin
🔹If Putin wants to offer something, I will answer his phone call. But the true negotiations about the end of the war must be held by Putin and Zelenskyy.

 

More exceptionally clear, tough language from Macron. The follow-up question (not just for Macron) is: does a permanent de facto or de jure partition of Ukraine count as a Russian "win"? https://t.co/JBEjuxlbDt

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 14, 2024

Another dig at Scholz. 'President Emmanuel Macron affirmed that those who place “limits” on commitment to support Ukraine “are not choosing peace but choosing defeat”' https://t.co/OFp3LHNrZ8

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 14, 2024

NATO HQ:

Story here with full quotes:https://t.co/0HJTBQxi8X

— Andrew Gray (@andrew_r_gray) March 14, 2024

From Reuters:

BRUSSELS, March 14 (Reuters) – Ukraine is running out of ammunition in its war against Russia’s invasion and NATO members are not doing enough to help Kyiv, the alliance’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday.

In unusually blunt comments about the state of the war, Stoltenberg said NATO allies had the capacity to provide more to Ukraine but needed to show the political will to do so.

“Unprecedented aid from NATO allies has helped Ukraine survive as an independent nation. But Ukraine needs even more support and they need it now,” Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

“The Ukrainians are not running out of courage, they are running out of ammunition.”

More than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s military has recently been grappling with significantly reduced weapons supplies from the West.

“NATO allies are not providing Ukraine with enough ammunition and that has consequences on the battlefield every day,” Stoltenberg said. “It is one of the reasons why the Russians have been able to make some advance on the battlefield over the last weeks and months.

“It is an urgent need for allies to make the decisions necessary to step and provide more ammunition to Ukraine. That’s my message to all capitals,” Stoltenberg said.

“We have the capacity, the economies, to be able to provide Ukraine what they need. This is a question of political will. To take the decisions and to prioritize support for Ukraine.”

He added that any attempt to organise Russian elections in occupied regions of Ukraine would be illegal.

The Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka fronts:

/2. FPV drone of the 79th Brigade targeting Russian ground delivery drone on the Novomykhailivka front. https://t.co/HT8SqMH9oP pic.twitter.com/AnxcJRuRoZ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

En route to Britain:

The bulk of Russian jamming activity in the region is for force protection reasons, i.e. to protect Russian forces (in this case in Kaliningrad). Much likelier that RAF plane was incidentally affected by that than targeted specifically. https://t.co/A3ntj90whI

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 14, 2024

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

This one just happened!

/1. Drone attack is reported in the Slavyansk-na-Kubani, Krasnodar region of Russia. Russian media claim that at least five drones attacked “a local plant”. No details yet about what was targeted. 290km from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/mR9EIECg86

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 17, 2024

It’s such a recent attack there is no more thread yet. Just the first tweet.

Syrzan, Samara Oblast, Russia:

Get ready to update your Russian oil refiners Bingo card! Syzran refinery, located 1000 km deep inside Russia, is currently offline. pic.twitter.com/fAtjga9xF0

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 16, 2024

I remember how a month or two ago, when some of the first plants were hit, one russian guy said: “H*h*ls, what’s the point? We have so many of these refineries”.

Looks like the drones are coming for all of them lol. https://t.co/TQYS3eMFpZ

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 16, 2024

/1. This morning, 6am local time, Russian oil refinery in Syzran, Samara region, was attacked by drones.

On the video man mentions that “AVT-6 is done” and that “K-2 column is on fire”

The capacity of the AVT-6 on the Syzran oil refinery is 6 million tons per year. That is… pic.twitter.com/7oIF5uqayn

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

/3. Additional footages of fire on the territory of the Syzran oil refinery as a result of the drone attack pic.twitter.com/UU5kBRcI3k

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

/5. Fire on the territory of Syzran oil refinery on the satellite imagery https://t.co/upJzcOHZ7d

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

Russian media as well as the governor of the Samara region say that this morning Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery was also attacked by drones. As claimed, a fire also started there as a result of the attack and was extinguished in half an hour. But unfortunately no videos have yet… https://t.co/DD4Vnt00Xn pic.twitter.com/8dGMiP257H

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 16, 2024

Russian media as well as the governor of the Samara region say that this morning Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery was also attacked by drones. As claimed, a fire also started there as a result of the attack and was extinguished in half an hour. But unfortunately no videos have yet appeared in the media to verify what was hit.
The Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery is located 100km away from Syzran oil refinery. And 900km from the frontline. (53.0664572, 49.8708594)

If you were wondering how things are going with the Ukrainian aligned Russian legions that have raided across the Ukrainian border in to Russia, here you go:

Kozinka Village:

Disturbing footage shows a Russian tank demolishing civilian houses in Russian Kozinka village to stop advancing Free Russian forces. pic.twitter.com/i1BSmGHuLa

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 16, 2024

Graivoron border point:

"Russian Volunteer Corps" democratic forces using a 30-mm gun of a BTR-82A captured in May 2023 against the regime forces at the Graivoron border point. pic.twitter.com/XX4aJeVIdJ

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 16, 2024

Belgorod:

Belgorod, SMO zone, 16 March 2024, results of shelling. pic.twitter.com/4DkBv9SfZA

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 16, 2024

Moscow:

Putin: "Are we ready for negotiations? Yes, we are, but we are only willing to negotiate based on the realities that have emerged…rather than on some kind of fantasies created by psychotropic drugs…They’re snorting cocaine now, right?" https://t.co/VcYNpoH5DL

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 14, 2024

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia is supposedly ready for a peaceful solution to the war it has unleashed against Ukraine, but only on condition that the territories it has captured will be taken into account and Moscow is provided with guarantees.

Source: Putin in an interview with Kremlin-aligned Russian news agencies Russia 1, RIA Novosti, and RT; BBC News Russian

Quote from Putin: “Are we ready for negotiations? Yes, we are, but we are only willing to negotiate based on the realities that have emerged, as they say in such cases, on the ground, rather than on some kind of fantasies created by psychotropic drugs.”

Details: Putin added that “possible negotiations are not a pause for rearming Kyiv, but a serious conversation with security guarantees for Moscow.”

Putin claimed he already knew the “carrots [i.e. incentives] they are going to offer him” to prove that the right time had come for talks.

Quote from Putin: “They’re snorting cocaine now, right? Well, it doesn’t matter, it’s even easier with such people. It’s tougher with the smart ones, they are more dangerous as they influence the consciousness of society, including ours. They will toss out all sorts of their desires under the guise of carrots for us.”

Why this is important: Russia invaded Ukraine and occupied Ukraine’s Crimea and part of Donbas in 2014. The Russian Federation commenced a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, launching missiles and bombs on civilian settlements across the country overnight. Notably, in the early days of the full-scale war, Russian propagandists extensively disseminated claims that “Russia will take Kyiv in three days”, while Russian soldiers marching on Kyiv carried their ceremonial uniforms to parade down Kyiv’s central Khreshchatyk Street.

Nevertheless, Ukraine’s Armed Forces expelled Russian troops from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts and continue to hold back the Russians on other fronts.

Realising that it would be impossible to achieve victory with force, Russia started to promote the idea of alleged peace talks through which it would seek to retain all the occupied territories. At the same time, the Russians are continuing to terrorise Ukraine, striking energy and civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. They often do so during the night.

Russian forces are suffering heavy losses regardless of their vast number of weapons and hardware. Russia has failed to achieve even the most minor strategic victory, such as reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as of early March 2024, after over ten years of war and more than two years of full-scale invasion. Fighting for every street and house is ongoing in the cities and villages of Ukraine’s east. Russia has been trying to find weapons and mercenaries in other countries.

Ukraine views the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory, the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders, the release of all prisoners of war, war criminals being brought to justice and Russia paying reparations as the preconditions for negotiations. Ukraine’s Peace Formula outlines all of this.

Background:

• Earlier, Pope Francis advised Ukraine to “have the courage of the white flag” and negotiate with Russia.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that “Russian murderers and torturers are not moving further into Europe solely because they are being held back by Ukrainians with weapons in their hands under the blue and yellow flag”.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

The best animal actor role award goes to this dog.
He perfectly played a role of an occupier who fights against Ukrainian drone. pic.twitter.com/OIzkHRpxAd

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 16, 2024

Open thread!

The fairer responses we have towards the Russian state, the harder it will be for Putin to continue his rule, and thus, the war – address by the President of Ukraine

15 March 2024 – 18:45

Dear Ukrainians,

Rescue operations are still ongoing and assistance is being provided in Odessa following the Russian missile strike. It’s a despicable act of cowardice: two missiles, with the second one hitting when rescuers and doctors arrived at the scene. Among the casualties and injured are emergency paramedics and rescuers from the State Emergency Service. My condolences go out to all their families and loved ones. Dozens are wounded, and the search for people under the rubble continues. All necessary services are engaged in this effort. I am grateful to everyone who is supporting the people now and saving lives, including the police, the State Emergency Service, medics, volunteers, and municipal services. I have instructed the regional authorities to fully support all those affected. Our Defense Forces will do everything to make Russian killers feel our just response.

I’ve held several meetings with military leadership and government officials. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, along with the Minister of Defense, visited the front lines and presented a report today on the current situation and the preparedness of our actions. We discussed the provision of ammunition, and frontline air defense. The Commander-in-Chief assessed the overall situation and actions of commanders on the front lines. I am thankful to all senior officers who, along with soldiers and combat units, truly care for the front lines. Today, we coordinated further active steps with the Commander-in-Chief. We also discussed the production and use of our strike drones and long-range drones, Russian logistics, and their war financing system. A joint meeting was held with the Commander-in-Chief, the Minister of Defense, the Chief of the General Staff, the Chiefs of Defense Intelligence and the Security Service, and Commander of Unmanned Systems Force Sukharevskyi. Everyone understands the tasks and specific goals clearly. The Cabinet of Ministers must do everything to create even more high-tech and long-range, mass-produced drones. This must be the conveyor of Russian responsibility for terror. And this is a fundamental moment, in many ways historical. The fairer responses we have towards the Russian state, and the more palpable our actions are against the Russian system, the harder it will be for Putin to continue his sick rule, and thus, the war.

One more thing.

I chaired a meeting regarding our international work. We discussed the outcomes, communication with partners in the first half of March, and upcoming negotiations planned for the next few weeks. We are working hard to fulfill every agreement, including those regarding joint defense productions. Ukraine will become even stronger.

I thank everyone who works for our state and people. I thank everyone who fights for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

More on Odesa:

I’ve seen the videos and pics posted of the first responders who were killed, as well as some of the civilians. I won’t be posting them here. The first responder above the jump is not the KIA, but he’s clearly shell shocked. Regardless, you DO NOT need to go looking for these or to watch them. It isn’t going to bring these people back to life, it isn’t going to help the wounded, it isn’t going to help the Ukrainians, and it isn’t going to help you.

Death toll from the Russian double-tap missile attack in Odesa today has risen to 16; number of wounded is 73, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service. https://t.co/Amm0P977Ul

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 15, 2024

Terrible news from Odessa. Russians struck innocent civilians & then rescuers. This is the work of a terrorist state.

Give Ukraine what it needs to protect itself! Standing on the sidelines against evil is not an option. pic.twitter.com/gNM9a20hJr

— Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) March 15, 2024

The Russians are claiming they killed two senior leaders in the Ukrainian National Police element in Odesa, as well as 500 plus Ukrainians. The latter number is garbage, the assertion about the Ukrainian National Police leaders and garrison in Odesa actually being the target are likely disinformation and agitprop as I’m seeing them be amplified by anti-Ukrainian accounts.

I am in shock. 💔 Two friends were murdered by Russia in Odesa this morning. They went to help after the first missile attack & the second missile hit.

This is my brother Sergiy—deputy mayor & hero to Odesa. He welcomed me like family in early days of invasion & helped feed… pic.twitter.com/xk46lUVkAk

— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 15, 2024

I am in shock. 💔 Two friends were murdered by Russia in Odesa this morning. They went to help after the first missile attack & the second missile hit.

This is my brother Sergiy—deputy mayor & hero to Odesa. He welcomed me like family in early days of invasion & helped feed hundreds of thousands. He kept me safe along with our brother Alex here, who was also killed. Every single day, they never stopped helping Ukraine.

I am so heartbroken & angry. We have lost too many incredible people. And we are not doing enough to stop Russia. Ukraine must win, it is the only way. 🇺🇦

Sergiy always had a smile, wherever we were. He never stopped serving Ukraine, day and night. Rest in peace, my friend. 💙 pic.twitter.com/fvtXzbwlJH

— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 15, 2024

Nate Mook was Jose Andres’ on the ground relief coordinator in Ukraine during the first six months or so of the war.

Kreminna Forest:

T64B1 tank in service with the Khartiia Brigade in Kreminna forest.
The reporters from @United24media filmed one of the combat tasks of the crew.
Operating a tank in a forest is a complex and risky task, but the tanks have to cover our infantry on the forefront. pic.twitter.com/c2dMYXe4Bq

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 15, 2024

Avdiivka Front:

Destroyed Russian assault group on the Avdiivka front. Couple of destroyed Desertcross 1000-3 can be seen.
The use of Desertcrosses on the front line and in the attacks has now become so frequent that at least 1-2 videos with these appear every day.https://t.co/VVYLPpG9Wt pic.twitter.com/2Mk7N9FzeX

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 15, 2024

Kaluga, Russia:

POV: you are looking through local Russian Kaluga media after an attack on another oil refinery in search of more detailed information and you see this. 🫣 https://t.co/zgQnDgwPgP pic.twitter.com/xn5u7BqEGX

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 15, 2024

No words needed. pic.twitter.com/npwtHKuosG

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 15, 2024

/3. Pervyy Zavod location. 300km to the Ukraine border.
(54.7112384, 35.9628600) pic.twitter.com/rSupzdEzAm

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 15, 2024

/5. Location from where the video was filmed. https://t.co/06Pt0YLzQo pic.twitter.com/Oqu9rbYAjf

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 15, 2024

I'm told that today's drone attack on a Russian oil refinery in Kaluga was conducted by Ukraine’s GUR military intel. Strikes earlier this week, by the SBU.@FT live news: Ukraine strikes another Russian refinery as campaign to hit economy intensifies https://t.co/druryIa10u

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 15, 2024

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Additionally drone attack on Russian military airfield in Voronezh region, Buturlinovka, was reported tonight. But nothing is known about the results of the attack.
(50.7951589, 40.6010860) https://t.co/zgQnDgwPgP pic.twitter.com/dn0eO8Tf0K

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 15, 2024

Somebody was asking about domestic Ukrainian weapons production/defense industrial base:

“The fastest way to start production is to do it in Ukraine,” @AKamyshin told me & @hallbenjamin. “We are very capable. We are price competitive and we are close to the front lines.”

Kyiv calls on west to fund Ukraine’s domestic defence production https://t.co/q9ibdK2rtU via @FT

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 15, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Ukraine has urged western allies to fund its domestic weapons production with its recently ramped up manufacturing capacity now vastly exceeding the money available for orders.

“The fastest way to start production is to do it in Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Kamyshin, minister for strategic industries, in an interview with the Financial Times. “We are very capable. We are price competitive and we are close to the front lines.”

US military support for Ukraine is stalled with a $60bn aid package stuck in Congress. European governments have made sizeable bilateral pledges of military aid but with their own stockpiles largely exhausted are focused on cranking up their own industries to fill their inventories and equip Ukraine.

Ukraine’s once vast defence industry was largely defunct by the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, but its companies have since retooled production lines, expanded their workforces and multiplied shifts. However, this capacity will be unsustainable without more contracts.

Ukrainska Pravda, a news outlet, last week calculated that Ukraine’s defence companies had the capacity to produce $18bn worth of armaments this year but had government appropriations worth only $9bn. The estimate was “more or less there”, said a Ukrainian official.

Ukraine spends nearly half of its $87bn budget on defence and relies on international donors to cover the other half, which covers public services and pensions.

The minister said that in some categories Ukraine could already produce advanced weaponry at lower costs than its western partners. He used the example of a recent donation from the Canadian government of 800 Canadian-made drones with an average unit cost of $87,000. He said Ukrainian companies could offer four different Ukrainian built models with similar or superior capabilities for $10,000-$25,000 a piece.

Kamyshin said Kyiv was “in discussions with close to 10 countries” about them financing procurement from companies in Ukraine, including fully indigenous enterprises and joint ventures with western firms.

Germany’s Rheinmetall last year signed a joint venture with Ukrainian Defense Industry JSC to produce infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers.

“It could be quite a logical step to produce with German money,” Kamyshin said.

The minister said he was also asking the UK government to fund the production in Ukraine, under licence, of the L119 light gun, a 105mm towed howitzer made by BAE Systems.

Western military aid for Ukraine has so far been used to pay for drawdowns from national stockpiles, fresh procurement from western defence companies and off-the-shelf items from third countries, but not to fund production by Ukraine’s revived defence industry.

Kamyshin dismissed the idea that Ukrainian defence companies could become a competitive threat to suppliers elsewhere in Europe. Instead, Ukraine was adding capacity to its European allies at a time when they needed to rearm to face a heightened Russian threat, he said.

“We’ve got complementary capabilities that won’t compete but that will add to [those in] in the EU and Nato.”

Kamyshin said a revived defence industry was likely to be a pillar of Ukraine’s economic recovery once the war was over and that it was in the interests of western partners to rescue the country’s dependence on foreign assistance.

“We don’t want to keep asking for [aid] money,” he said. “We are a creative and reliable partner you want to have in your gang during hard times.”

Reuters has reported that Olaf Scholz stated that the EU will use frozen Russian assets to arm Ukraine. Of course Reuters also reports the devil that is the details.

BERLIN/PARIS/WARSAW, March 15 (Reuters) – Ukraine’s backers will use windfall profits on frozen Russian assets to finance arms purchases for Kyiv, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said following a meeting with his French and Polish counterparts aimed at showing unity after weeks of friction.

At a joint press conference in Berlin, Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reaffirmed their support for Ukraine, whose ammunition-starved troops face their toughest battles since the early days of Russia’s invasion two years ago.

European support has become increasingly key as U.S. President Joe Biden has been unable to get a big Ukraine aid package through Congress, and much of his foreign policy energy is focused on the war in Gaza.

Scholz said the leaders had agreed on the need to procure more weapons for Ukraine on the global market and to boost the production of military gear, including through cooperation with partners in Ukraine.

“We will use windfall profits from Russian assets frozen in Europe to financially support the purchase of weapons for Ukraine,” Scholz said as he listed European Union efforts to increase support for Ukraine.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called last month for the EU to consider using such profits to “jointly purchase military equipment for Ukraine”.

The Commission is expected to make a concrete proposal in the coming days.

Some EU member countries such as Hungary have signalled reservations about the idea, according to diplomats in Brussels. But Scholz’s comments suggested he is confident that EU countries will ultimately approve the proposal.

Scholz said the leaders also agreed on the need for the Ukraine Defence Contact group – a U.S.-led group of some 50 countries that provide military support to Ukraine – to set up a coalition to provide long-distance artillery to Kyiv.

A proposal to set up a long-range missile coalition had already been agreed in Paris on Feb. 26. It was unclear whether Scholz’ comments referred to this and how Germany, which has opposed sending its long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, would participate.

Defence ministers from the contact group are set to meet early next week at the Ramstein U.S. Air Base in Germany.

Macron reiterated his warning that it was not just Ukrainian but European security at stake.

“We will do everything as necessary for as long as needed so that Russia cannot win this war,” Macron said. “This determination is steadfast and implies our unity.”

He added that the three leaders had agreed on the need to reinforce support for Moldova, which says Russia is trying to destabilize it through a “hybrid war”.

He said the three leaders had agreed to never initiate an escalation with Russia, a possible way to downplay talk of sending Western ground troops to Ukraine, which has irked Germany.

The meeting of the so-called Weimar triangle – Germany, France and Poland – came after weeks of tensions, in particular between Scholz and Macron, that had alarmed officials in Kyiv and across the continent.

A hastily-arranged summit in Paris last month had aimed to give fresh impetus to stagnating Western efforts to help Ukraine repel a full-scale Russian invasion that has entered its third year.
Instead, Macron’s refusal to rule out deploying Western troops to Ukraine triggered a dressing down from Scholz.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, told Reuters that “indecision and uncoordinated action” among Kyiv’s allies was leading to “grave consequences”.

“Russia starts to get cocky and begins to believe that it can quantitatively squeeze Ukraine,” he said.

“Ukraine, in turn, is experiencing a severe shortage of specific resources, primarily shells, and is partially losing the initiative.”

Might be a good idea for leaders of EU member states to stop announcing that they are definitely doing things that they are not actually doing yet and may never actually do. Also, how about just actually doing things that would be helpful.

Kind of like this:

Greece negotiates deal with Czechia for ammunition transfer to Ukraine.

The planned delivery will include 2,000 5-inch Zuni rockets, 180 2.75-inch anti-tank rockets, 90,000 90mm projectiles used for anti-tank and anti-aircraft purposes, 4 million bullets.

Greece will also… pic.twitter.com/ZYFWGEnjR8

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 15, 2024

Greece negotiates deal with Czechia for ammunition transfer to Ukraine.

The planned delivery will include 2,000 5-inch Zuni rockets, 180 2.75-inch anti-tank rockets, 90,000 90mm projectiles used for anti-tank and anti-aircraft purposes, 4 million bullets.

Greece will also supply 70 US-maid M114A1 howitzers from Greek army stocks.

Prices for a deal are currently being negotiated with the Czech Republic that will facilitate the transfer of much-needed ammunition and artillery systems directly to Ukraine.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/15/greece-negotiates-deal-with-czechia-for-ammunition-transfer-to-ukraine/

EuroMaidan Press has the details:

Greece has announced its intention to continue providing military aid to Ukraine without depleting its own stocks this year to assist in its defense against the Russian invasion, according to Ekathimerini. Prices for a deal are currently being negotiated with the Czech Republic that will facilitate the transfer of much-needed ammunition and artillery systems directly to Ukrainian forces.

While modernizing its army, Greece has provided a variety of older weapons systems to Ukraine’s military aid, including BMP-1A1 infantry fighting vehicles, RPG-18s grenade launchers, Kalashnikov rifles, and 122mm rocket artillery rounds. Additionally, Greece is contributing to the training of Ukrainian military personnel, including pilots for F-16 jet fighters, Special Forces, and Leopard 2 MBT troops.

According to Greek officials, among the supplies Ukraine requires most urgently are rockets, projectiles, bullets, and howitzers. The planned delivery will include 2,000 5-inch Zuni rockets, 180 2.75-inch anti-tank rockets that have proved effective against Russian armor, 90,000 90mm projectiles used for anti-tank and anti-aircraft purposes, 4 million bullets, and 70 US-maid M114A1 howitzers from Greek army stocks, as per Ekathimerini.

“The latter do come from Hellenic Army stock, but have long been considered unnecessary for its operational needs. They are, however, seen as useful in Ukraine’s standoff battles in muddy terrain. This is the second batch of M114A1s that Greece will sell to the Czech Republic in order to have them transferred to Ukraine,” Ekathimerini says.

This is not the first time Greece has contributed to Ukraine’s military efforts. It has previously sent 40 Soviet-era BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles in exchange for 40 more modern German Marder IFVs. Anti-aircraft missile launchers have also been provided. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias will attend an upcoming Ramstein-format meeting in Germany of countries donating arms to Ukraine on 19 March.

While willing to assist Ukraine, Greece has stated it needs to replace aging anti-aircraft systems like the S-300 with more modern Western alternatives, regardless of whether the S-300s are transferred to Kyiv. Replacing all short-range and vulnerable anti-aircraft weapons on the Greek mainland and islands with Israeli systems is also a priority, Ekathimerini notes.

Maybe, just maybe, someone in the US and/or the EU might want to put their economies, or at least their defense industrial base, on a war footing!

Financial Times details the short sighted stupidity!

The Taurus system is built by a joint venture between the German arm of Europe’s largest missile maker, MBDA, and Sweden’s Saab. Bavarian-based TDW, a subsidiary of MBDA Deutschland, makes the Mephisto warhead. No missiles are in production. The Spanish, South Korean and German militaries have stocks of Taurus missiles but none have been used in war.

Production lines are idle: they were last active in 2019, following an order by the South Korean government. The plants in the Bavarian town of Schrobenhausen are only carrying out refurbishments of sold missiles. Analysts estimate that each missile costs about €1.5mn, depending on the size of the order.

Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG is manufactured by MBDA in the UK and in France. Last year saw the first use of the cruise missiles in Ukraine — gifted by UK and France — released from Ukraine’s Su-24 ground-attack aircraft.

There is one active Scalp-EG production line in France delivering an order from Greece. Athens procured some additional missiles as part of a wider weapons package for Dassault Aviation’s Rafale jets.

Neither the UK nor France have disclosed how many missiles they have sent to Ukraine. However, prior to sending Storm Shadows to Kyiv, Britain had a stockpile of up to 850, Hoffmann estimated. France had stockpiles of up to 460 Scalp-EG missiles before deliveries to Ukraine.

The US started supplying Ukraine with the Army Tactical Missile System, ballistic missiles known as ATACMS, late last year. Built by Lockheed Martin, ATACMS are fired from launchers on the ground and have a maximum range of 300km — although the ones sent to Kyiv are the older missiles with a range of 165km.

Joachim Knopf, managing director of Taurus Systems, in January said Taurus production could be resumed “at short notice” as long as an order was placed.

Nevertheless, analysts estimate a new Taurus missile would take about two years to produce.

Increasing or restarting production of a cruise missile “can’t be done overnight, with the supply chain also having to increase output or restart production of components, all of which takes time”, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Any missiles sent to Ukraine would likely come from the Bundeswehr’s stock of roughly 600 Taurus missiles — although only half of them are believed to be operational, according to Hoffmann.

Beyond the debate over supplying Ukraine, Europe needed to consider its own arsenal, Hoffman said. “[Missile systems] are key capabilities in modern warfare — we don’t have enough of them in our arsenals and we currently don’t produce them,” he said.

Meanwhile, Russia has increased production of its long-range missiles, from about 40 a month in 2022 to about 100 a month by the end of last year, according to the Royal United Services Institute.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material.

Happy Caturday from Garfield, who lives with Sergiy in the heavily destroyed town of Kamyanka in eastern Ukraine. This area was occupied by Russians for months—only a few residents have returned to rebuild. Sergiy helps take care of the homeless pets, so we bring food & meds! 🐈 pic.twitter.com/vatu961qbE

— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 9, 2024

Garfield and his friends are always happy when Hachiko team comes with food 😻 https://t.co/0amCnxUNQP pic.twitter.com/N82fIV6PA2

— Yuliya 🇺🇦 Stefanyuk (@Y_Stefanyuk) March 9, 2024

Another photo of Garfield, my new Ukrainian friend. Photo: @Y_Stefanyuk. pic.twitter.com/vy2QcR34m4

— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) March 14, 2024

Open thread!

Each day we are amassing more and more of the much needed strength, long-range strength – address by the President of Ukraine

14 March 2024 – 21:30

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is one of those days when we are especially grateful to all our people who have chosen the path of defending Ukraine and our independence. Those who are fighting at the front, those who are working for defense, and thanks to whom Ukraine lives and achieves its goals. Moreover, it clearly and effectively brings this war back home to Russia, where the true cost of war must be felt. Today, on Ukrainian Volunteer Day, it is important to remember the bravery and dedication of all those who became defenders of Ukraine in 2014, who withstood the confrontation of that time, who preserved Ukraine in 2022 and who are now preserving and strengthening our positions and our entire state. Everyone who directs their will to protect the entire nation makes themselves a part of the great history of Ukraine, a nation and a state that will never disappear and will always be able to inspire the world from now on. I am proud of all our people who are fighting for Ukraine’s opportunity to live normally and freely. I thank each and every one of them. Today, I honored our warriors with awards – orders, the title of Hero of Ukraine, and the medal “For Military Service to Ukraine”. As of today, a total of 73,750 Ukrainians have been honored with state awards. Of course, this is only a part of the heroism of our people. Today, I had the opportunity to express gratitude to our defense industry workers – the people who have dedicated their lives to Ukrainian strength, who manufacture our weapons, which show results on the battlefield, at sea, and in air strikes on Russia’s war machine. I thank them for Ukrainian artillery shells, cannons, drones, for our missiles and electronic warfare systems. For everything that helps our warriors fight and saves Ukraine’s life and the lives of Ukrainians. We will have more weapons, shells, drones, and EW systems. Today, I met workers from one of our defense facilities. We do not talk about it officially. And now, during wartime, we cannot openly demonstrate our capabilities. We will, of course, openly express our gratitude after the war. These are the people who have found a way to significantly strengthen our country. And each day we are amassing more and more of this strength. The strength we need so much. The long-range strength.

One more thing.

Today I spoke with the German Chancellor. It was a very substantive and quite long conversation. I thanked Olaf for the assistance that Germany provides to our country. It is a multifaceted assistance. We coordinated our positions ahead of the trilateral meeting between Germany, France and Poland. Obviously, the meeting will be largely about Ukraine – about our common strength. We also discussed with Mr. Chancellor Scholz further joint work in the defense sector: the assistance that is needed and joint production of weapons – both at the state level and at the level of companies. Of course, we also talked about the European Union – our work to ensure that negotiations on Ukraine’s full accession begin as soon as possible. We are not losing a single day.

I thank everyone who is with Ukraine and in Ukraine!

Glory to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Today is Ukrainian Volunteer Day.

We congratulate our brave warriors on Ukrainian Volunteer Day!

The willingness of Ukrainian men and women to voluntarily come to Ukraine's defense was the decisive factor in withstanding the enemy's onslaught.
We will stand and win.
Thank you for your service!
Glory to Ukraine… pic.twitter.com/ZsGeT3Nvkv

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 14, 2024

We congratulate our brave warriors on Ukrainian Volunteer Day!

The willingness of Ukrainian men and women to voluntarily come to Ukraine’s defense was the decisive factor in withstanding the enemy’s onslaught.
We will stand and win.
Thank you for your service!
Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦

The EU:

🇺🇦🤝🇪🇺 EU ambassadors agreed on a €5 billion increase in the European Peace Facility, which is used to fund supplies of weapons to Ukraine.

We are grateful to our European partners for staunch support. Together, we will restore a stable and just peace in Europe. https://t.co/6UU05fEViT

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 14, 2024

France:

Macron on French TV this evening :
The war in 🇺🇦 is “existential…”If Russia were to win, life for the French would change. We would no longer have security in Europe. Who can seriously believe that Putin, who has respected no limits, would stop there?” pic.twitter.com/pzoT13WSZF

— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) March 14, 2024

Macron: “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero”

— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) March 14, 2024

Here’s the full interview. I’ve got the closed captioning on and set to English.

Emmanuel Macron is just kicking ass tonight.

Some of his words for the French TV:

"If Ukraine falls, our security will be at risk. If Russia continues to escalate, if the situation worsens, we must be ready, and we will be ready. To be prepared, we will make the necessary…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 14, 2024

Emmanuel Macron is just kicking ass tonight.

Some of his words for the French TV:

“If Ukraine falls, our security will be at risk. If Russia continues to escalate, if the situation worsens, we must be ready, and we will be ready. To be prepared, we will make the necessary decisions to ensure that Russia never wins.”

“I want our compatriots to understand that there is only one person responsible for the situation we are in: it is the Kremlin regime. I am undoubtedly a responsible leader who has spoken with Vladimir Putin more than anyone else. We are not in fiction, this is not a novel or a TV series.”

“Therefore, if the war spreads, if the war spreads in Europe, it will be the only choice and responsibility of Russia. Of course, today Russia is an opponent. The Kremlin regime is an opponent. I have always said this, we are not waging war with Russia and the Russian people.

“And we support Ukraine. I will tell you very simply: there will be no lasting peace without sovereignty, a return to internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, including Crimea.”

“Today, for there to be peace in Ukraine, we must not be weak, so we must soberly look at the situation and with determination, will, and courage say that we are ready to achieve our goal by the means that ensure Russia will not win. The responsibility lies with us.”

“If Russia wins, how will the lives of the French change? We will no longer have security in Europe. Who could think for a second that President Putin, who has respected none of these restrictions and none of his commitments, would stop at what has been achieved? The security of the French is at stake. These are our vital interests.”

We have helped Ukraine to resist. But now the context on Ukrainian soil is changing. For them, the situation is much more complicated. Russia is becoming tougher internally and is stepping up its attacks.

“What is at stake in Ukraine? A war that is existential for our Europe and for France. We have introduced too many restrictions, so to speak, into our vocabulary. We are not participating in the escalation. We are not in a state of war with Russia.

We just need to be clear: we must not allow Russia to win.”

What can I say — finally the words of a real European leader.

Russia, its people and its lackeys around the world continue the same demented and delusional observation that Putin has.

— той хлопець Крістофер (@spooked75) March 13, 2024

Sweden:

Finally we can go official: Sweden is joining the Czech initiative to supply Ukraine with much needed artillery ammunition with 30 milion € (approx 755 million CZK). Great job, Czechs!!! 🇨🇿🤝🇸🇪 #WeAreNATO #StrongerTogether @strakovka @prezidentpavel @mzvcr 👏 pic.twitter.com/zGbfCkx3w3

— Sweden in Czechia (@SwedeninCZ) March 14, 2024

Washington DC:

Politico has reported that Speaker Johnson has a plan for a stand alone Ukraine supplemental.

WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, West Virginia — Speaker Mike Johnson told POLITICO that he expects to pass a future Ukraine assistance bill with Democratic votes, an acknowledgment of the persistent resistance to any new aid within the GOP.

Johnson said in a Thursday interview at the House Republican retreat that aid to both Ukraine and Israel could come up as one or even two separate bills. He said he anticipates it would happen using the House’s suspension calendar, which he’s used often in recent days to overcome pushback from his own party.

“I think it is a stand-alone, and I suspect it will need to be on suspension,” Johnson said of foreign assistance.

The Louisiana Republican added in clear terms that he sees no path to attaching the foreign aid to a larger spending bill to keep the government open.

The suspension calendar requires a two-thirds majority to approve legislation on the House floor — meaning Johnson would need a substantial number of Democratic votes. He has taken that approach with many contentious measures so far in his speakership.

He added in the interview that splitting Ukraine and Israel aid into two separate bills was “under consideration.”

The speaker’s remarks are the most definitive he has made so far on his plans for tens of billions of dollars in foreign aid that has languished in Congress for many weeks, even after the Senate cleared its own bipartisan package last month. They represent the clearest move Johnson has made to commit to a floor vote on Ukraine aid, despite significant disinterest in his own party in any new funding for Kyiv’s efforts against Russia.

Johnson has publicly stated that the House would turn to foreign aid after a government funding plan that’s expected to come to the floor of both chambers of Congress next week, with a partial shutdown deadline looming on March 22. While the political challenges of passing that funding bill have sparked questions about attaching foreign aid to a spending bill, he ruled out the idea.

“I don’t think leaders of either side of the aisle think that’s a viable option,” Johnson said in the interview.

He’ll certainly need to consult with Democrats to have any hope of passing foreign aid on the suspensions calendar, which GOP leaders have used for multiple high-stakes bills that would otherwise have failed to get the near-unanimous Republican support needed to pass along party lines. A spokesperson for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries did not immediately return a request for comment on the speaker’s remarks.

Johnson also projected optimism that lawmakers would be able to put to bed a six-month ordeal of avoiding a government shutdown. He said he didn’t expect that Congress would need another short-term spending patch, looking ahead to a release of that funding plan — including critical cash for the Pentagon — over the weekend.

CNN first reported that Johnson was weighing a stand-alone Israel aid bill. The House has already passed an Israel aid bill paired with IRS cuts that made it a non-starter in the Senate.

The speaker’s comments about foreign aid come as the Biden administration and other officials warn Ukraine is running out of ammunition in its fight against Russia. Taking up any aid bill in the House, however, would hand political weaponry to Johnson’s conservative critics, some of whom have warned that he could face a forced ouster vote if he moves forward on it.

More at the link, but it mostly deals with Johnson’s future as Speaker of GOP House Leader.

Moscow, which views Speaker Johnson and his majority caucus as useful idiots:

Former 🇷🇺 President Medvedev, the head of Russia’s ruling party, outlines Moscow’s “peace plan:” unconditional surrender of Ukraine, its dissolution as a subject of international law, reparations to Russia, full absorption into the Russian Federation. https://t.co/2OBoS5MZzw

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 14, 2024

So, Putin's cartoonish Dr. Evil, aka Russia's security council deputy chairman, and Putin's party chairman, Dmitriy Medvedev, rolled out the Kremlin's real "terms of peace" on Ukraine & the West.

I don't even have to say anything.

Below is your answer to all that 'WHY CAN'T… pic.twitter.com/U5Fv49Qv6j

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 14, 2024

So, Putin’s cartoonish Dr. Evil, aka Russia’s security council deputy chairman, and Putin’s party chairman, Dmitriy Medvedev, rolled out the Kremlin’s real “terms of peace” on Ukraine & the West.

I don’t even have to say anything.

Below is your answer to all that ‘WHY CAN’T UKRAINE JUST NEGOTIATE PEACE???’ chanting promoted by the Kremlin’s useful idiots.

I specifically love the parts where the ‘so-called former Ukraine’ must unconditionally surrender and pay reparations (!) to Russia and then ‘officially’ dissolve itself as a nation under a collaborationist ‘provisional parliament’ that will have to proclaim the entire territory as Russian territory — and with the UN having to ‘recognize’ all this.

Here we go:

“About the ‘peace formula’ of Kyiv’s Nazis, Swiss ‘peace conferences’, and the real basis for negotiations.

When I hear the phrase ‘Zelensky’s peace formula,’ I experience an overwhelming sense of disgust, quickly transitioning into a feeling of shame due to the bad surrealism of what is happening.

After all, everyone understands, including the brazen Western liars, that even in much simpler situations during war, peace can only be achieved either through the mutual will of the parties based on reasonable compromise or by the capitulation of one of the conflict’s sides.

There appears to be no will for negotiations from what is called the former Ukraine, at least based on the recognition of realities, as Vladimir Putin mentioned yesterday.

For them, the reality is the brain-twisting ‘peace formula’ of a provincial clown in green tights. And nothing else. This looks so artificial that the only solution is to construct your own, Russian formula, calm and quite realistic.

Humane for everyone.

What could it be? For example, this:

1. Recognition by the former ‘Ukraine’ of its defeat in the military component of the conflict. Full and unconditional surrender of f. ‘Ukraine’ in the person of the neo-Nazi clique in Kyiv. Demilitarization of former ‘Ukraine’ and prohibition on the creation of militarized formations on its territories in the future.

2. Recognition by the international community of the Nazi nature of the former Kyiv political regime and conducting UN-controlled compulsory denazification of all former ‘Ukraine’s’ government bodies.

3. UN acknowledgment of former ‘Ukraine’s’ loss of international legal capacity and the impossibility of its successors joining military alliances without Russia’s consent.

4. Resignation of all constitutional bodies of f. ‘Ukraine’ and immediate elections for a temporary parliament of the self-governing territory under the UN’s aegis of former ‘Ukraine.’

5. The temporary parliament’s enactment of laws regarding the payment of all due compensations to Russia, including payments to the relatives of deceased citizens of our country and payments for injuries to wounded individuals. Establishment of the procedure for compensating property damage inflicted on entities of the Russian Federation.

6. The temporary parliament of former Ukraine’s’ official recognition that its entire territory is the territory of the Russian Federation. Adoption of the act of reunification of the territories of former ‘Ukraine’ with Russia.
7. Dissolution of the temporary parliament. UN recognition of the act of reunification.

Such could be the soft Russian peace formula.

This is a compromise position, right? I believe it is precisely along these lines that a friendly consensus with the international community, including the Anglo-Saxon world, can be sought to conduct productive summits, counting on the mutual understanding of our close friends – Western partners.”

Yep, Nazi war criminals were also very sure of themselves and very brazen in their time — up until a moment a noose started gently touching their necks in Nuremberg.

Kreminna, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

The gunners from the 45th Artillery Brigade destroyed russian D-20 and D-30 howitzers near Kreminna, Luhansk region. pic.twitter.com/F2dBmu0MI8

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 14, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

-3 russian IFVs in the Avdiivka direction.
The successful cooperation of anti-tank gunners, artillerymen, FPV drones, and an American Bradley left no chance for an attack by the occupiers.

📹: 47th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/52SX6EBAok

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 14, 2024

Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts:

Democratic forces issued a green corridor for residents of border areas of Belgorod and Kursk regions, and it seems that people have listened: civilians en masse leaving Graivoron towards Belgorod.

Russia dem. forces including RDK promised mass assault against communist… pic.twitter.com/GBXsaqU8Y7

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 14, 2024

Democratic forces issued a green corridor for residents of border areas of Belgorod and Kursk regions, and it seems that people have listened: civilians en masse leaving Graivoron towards Belgorod.

Russia dem. forces including RDK promised mass assault against communist military at 7am tomorrow when the green corridor expires.

Governor of Belgorod region closed all shopping centres in the city of Belgorod in light of the ongoing special military operation of the Russian democratic forces. He's also encouraging people to avoid any non-essential travel.

Today is the 749th day of the 3-day operation to… pic.twitter.com/DUWn5DeVUz

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 14, 2024

Governor of Belgorod region closed all shopping centres in the city of Belgorod in light of the ongoing special military operation of the Russian democratic forces. He’s also encouraging people to avoid any non-essential travel.

Today is the 749th day of the 3-day operation to take Kyiv.

Imperial regime troops surrendering to the Russian democratic forces in Bilhorod. https://t.co/HMmeHkYHmX

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 14, 2024

Here’s the machine translation of Sternenko’s tweet:

BNR, Spodaryushyno village. Occupants from the army of the Kremlin junta capture the rebels, raising a white flag. Geolocated by Cyberflour

If you’re just waking up and don’t understand what’s happening in Belgorod: around 6am local time there started shelling of the city and other settlements of the region. Meanwhile, imperial russian sources also tell about clashes against democratic Russian forces at the border.… pic.twitter.com/RpJMZvYzH9

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 14, 2024

If you’re just waking up and don’t understand what’s happening in Belgorod: around 6am local time there started shelling of the city and other settlements of the region. Meanwhile, imperial russian sources also tell about clashes against democratic Russian forces at the border. The extent of the clashes and the intentions of democratic forces is not fully clear but they’re unlikely to be entering any majors settlements. As of now though, reports of shelling continue coming through.

14 March: after hours of shelling in the city of Belgorod, the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps warns about opening fire on military targets in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts and calls for civilians to leave the area immediately. pic.twitter.com/ADuYsgDoQm

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 14, 2024

Now we watch and wait to see what happens in Belgorod and Kursk overnight and how Russia responds.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

It is very important that our people are not left alone with pain and problems after Russian strikes – address by the President of Ukraine

13 March 2024 – 22:30

Dear Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

Reports from the regions of our country on the elimination of the consequences of Russian strikes and on providing assistance to the victims. Sumy – a “Shahed” drone hit a residential building, Kryvyi Rih – the aftermath of a Russian missile attack, Donetsk region, in particular the city of Myrnohrad – a Russian strike, an air bomb directly hit a residential building. Each of these strikes took lives. My condolences to all those who have lost loved ones. Today we also had a separate conversation about Odesa – about helping people after the destruction of a house on Dobrovolskoho Avenue. As agreed, the regional authorities and the Cabinet of Ministers are helping with new housing and other similar issues. In general, after each Russian attack, all services respond promptly, all necessary resources are involved: from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, regional authorities, utilities, and the National Police.

I would like to once again thank everyone involved in the rescue operations, working to clear the rubble, helping and supporting people who have lost their loved ones. It is very important that after the Russian strikes our people are not left alone with pain and problems. And it is the responsibility of local authorities, all state and municipal services, and if necessary, the central government, including the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, to respond and handle all situations so that people truly feel that Ukraine always helps. And no matter what happens, there will be support in every corner of our country. This is exactly what is needed.

I would especially like to recognize the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Sumy region. Sergeants Oleh Sakhnenko and Ivan Vorozhko, Master Sergeant Volodymyr Ponomarenko, Captain Oleksandr Moyseyenko and Colonel Volodymyr Prokopchuk. I would also like to recognize the staff of the State Emergency Service in Dnipropetrovsk region, in particular those who work in Kryvyi Rih and help safeguard people’s normal life. Sergeant Maksym Zaliznyi, Master Sergeant Oleksandr Makhno, Senior Lieutenant Illia Mustiatsa, Captain Volodymyr Havryliuk and employees of the State Mining Rescue Unit of the State Emergency Service Pavlo Doroshenko and Yevhen Konovalov. I am grateful to you guys and all your colleagues!

A few more things.

I held several meetings on our international work. First, the European Union. Next steps towards full membership. Yesterday, the European Commission finalized the Negotiating Framework. Next, we are waiting for the decision of European leaders on its approval. It will be an important and strong signal for both Ukraine and the entire European community to do everything possible to start negotiations as early as during the Belgian presidency in the first half of this year. This should be our common pace, both for Ukraine and the EU. We have a clear sequence of steps and I am confident that we can achieve the result.

I also held a more strategic meeting on the American vector of our policy. We discussed how to give more proper impulses to our work with partners and joint pressure on the Russian state throughout this year. Winning here in Ukraine in this confrontation with Russian terror is a matter of survival for democratic systems, a matter of what democracies are capable of. Ukraine is capable of defending itself, given sufficient support. And having defended ourselves, we can ensure that no other international criminal will be tempted by aggression like Putin. We can protect life and we must do so.

Glory to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! Glory to our people!

Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Good job Republican members of the House and Senate!

Putin: “It would be ridiculous for us to start negotiating with Ukraine just because it’s running out of ammunition.”
Republican leadership of the House cutting off military supplies to Ukraine has made Putin drop his pretense about desiring peace talks. He wants it all. pic.twitter.com/rlcmtaJz9U

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 13, 2024

You can’t shame the shameless.

Polish PM Donald Tusk with some pretty blunt words for @SpeakerJohnson re: Ukraine aid (quotes via @Marekwalkuski) pic.twitter.com/juBBdlFm2z

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) March 12, 2024

Secretary of State Blinken met with EU High Representative Borrell today.

Borrell: You are doing a lot.  We are doing a lot. I think we can do still more in order to support Ukrainians in these very challenging times.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 13, 2024

This is a very good question:

🎙️AMERICA FIRST… Europe alone?

☂️Since 1945 the US has extended its security umbrella over Europe. Could Trump 2.0 upend that?

🇺🇸We asked @BrunoTertrais & @shashj how reliant Europe is on the US, and whether it is ready to stand alone

👂FULL EPISODE👉https://t.co/iqTyB8riQ1 pic.twitter.com/L8nEbYPQCY

— Uncommon Decency (@UnDecencyPod) March 13, 2024

This seems like it could be a positive development:

Really good news: on Friday, Scholz, Macron, and Tusk will meet, revive the Weimar Triangle, and sketch out a joint strategy on Ukraine. Let’s hope this will end Franco-German disagreement and will be understood in Moscow as a clear message : no way we will let Ukraine down!

— Wolfgang Ischinger (@ischinger) March 13, 2024

We have to wait to see what, if anything results.

Polish FM on Ukraine's negotiations with Russia: No shortage of ‘pocket Chamberlains’ ready to sacrifice someone else's territory for sake of their comfort. pic.twitter.com/fp0y7kfBkH

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) March 12, 2024

In case you’ve seen the AP reporting on Putin’s remarks regarding the use of nukes, here’s what he said:

“From the military-technical point of view we are, of course, prepared,” Putin said. “[The US is] developing their components. So are we. That doesn’t mean, in my view, that they are prepared to start this nuclear war tomorrow. If they are — what can we do? We’re prepared.” https://t.co/ChUnIfSuzc

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 13, 2024

Putin likes trotting these nuclear threats out when he feels like it's a good time to pressure the west and stop it from giving Ukraine more support.

But as @xtophercook and I reported, what he's talking about means a very low nuclear threshold:https://t.co/qAV5yA5nju

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 13, 2024

And here’s what’s really going on.

Russia threatens nuclear weapons on a weekly basis now.

This isn’t breaking news, @AP, this is Vladimir Putin being terrified of his country failing. https://t.co/ez41myGnCZ

— Julien Hoez (@JulienHoez) March 13, 2024

Sorry, what's BREAKING about this?

Other than the fact that Putin is again starting a new wave of global nuclear blackmailing and extortion in his war propaganda, of course.

Previous attempts to scare the West off from providing Ukraine with all appropriate tools to curtail… https://t.co/rMzTtYUSJX

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 13, 2024

Sorry, what’s BREAKING about this?

Other than the fact that Putin is again starting a new wave of global nuclear blackmailing and extortion in his war propaganda, of course.

Previous attempts to scare the West off from providing Ukraine with all appropriate tools to curtail and end Russia’s invasion were quite successful — so why not carry on and extort more — and then more, and more, and more?

My question is if the media realize that with such BREAKING headlines, they only help the Kremlin play its “Give me this and that and kneel to me because otherwise, it’s NUKES” card.

It’s not that we spent two years beating our heads against the wall and trying to make it clear that you can’t encourage warmongering dictators by backing down to their nuclear intimidation — this would inevitably only make things worse.

Ukraine has gone on the hunt in response to Russia’s bombardment of civilian targets.

The difference between Russia & Ukraine illustrated in today’s attacks – Kyiv targeted 3 oil refineries & the Russians blew up 3 apartment blocks murdering 6 civilians.

Ukraine is fighting a defensive war according to international law while Russia indiscriminately slaughters.

— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) March 13, 2024

Over 60 drones were spotted overnight and this morning across different regions of Russia. Drone attacks have been reported in Ryazan, Voronezh, Bryansk, Kursk, Leningrad, and Belgorod regions. This makes the largest drone attack deep inside Russia so far pic.twitter.com/06D50W3sFR

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 13, 2024

/2. Moment of the drone strike on Ryazan oil refinery pic.twitter.com/wf70WqdD6L

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 13, 2024

The Financial Times has the details:

Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes on oil refineries deep inside Russia, in what officials depict as an intensifying effort to hit the country’s economy.

In the second consecutive day of assaults on Russian energy infrastructure, explosions were confirmed on sites in the country’s heartlands such as Ryazan, Kstovo and Kirishi.

The damaged facilities, which are all hundreds of kilometres away from the border with Ukraine, account for about 10 per cent of Russia’s total oil processing capacity.

A Ukrainian official with knowledge of the attacks said the state security service used drones overnight in “a series of special operations against enemy oil refineries”.

The official added that Ukraine was “systematically implementing a detailed strategy . . . to deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of oil money and fuel”.

Kyiv and Moscow have both stepped up drone attacks in recent months as Ukrainian forces struggle to repel their better-armed Russian foes on the battlefield.

The targeting of oil refineries comes amid growing frustration in Ukraine with the hesitant approach western powers have taken to targeting Moscow’s energy revenues.

While the G7 and the EU have tried to limit how much Russia can sell its oil for, they have also sought to keep Russian barrels on the market to avoid a price spike ahead of the US presidential election in November.

Earlier this month, Russia implemented a ban on petrol exports in an effort to keep prices stable amid rising demand.

The Russian defence ministry on Wednesday claimed to have shot down more than 60 Ukrainian drones.

But videos posted on Russian social media showed several Ukrainian drones bypassing air defences and causing explosions.

Another Ukrainian official said Wednesday’s attack had caused “quite significant” damage on the targeted refineries.

One video showed flames and a huge plume of black smoke rising from the Ryazan oil refinery south-east of Moscow. Pavel Malkov, governor of the Ryazan region, said there were injuries but did not elaborate.

Ukrainian security forces also launched drone strikes on Wednesday against a Russian air force base in Buturlinovka and a military airfield in Voronezh, both about 200km from the Ukrainian border.

The previous day Ukraine had launched a wave of drone strikes against energy sites and oil refineries in at least seven Russian regions.

Ukraine-backed Russian paramilitary units opposed to President Vladimir Putin’s regime also launched cross-border incursions with tanks and armoured vehicles into Belgorod and Kursk regions on Tuesday.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv was responding to Russian aggression.

“We will inflict losses on the Russian state in response — quite rightly,” he said in an evening address on Tuesday. “Those in the Kremlin must get used to the fact that terror does not go unpunished for them.”

Russian missiles and attack drones, including Shahed drones made by Iran and supplied to Moscow for its war effort, often target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.

A Russian missile strike on Tuesday morning destroyed an apartment building in Zelenskyy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, in southern Ukraine, killing three people and injuring 30 more.

A Shahed drone attack on Wednesday morning also crushed an apartment building in Sumy, northern Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities said there were deaths and injuries but did not clarify how many.

At least four of 32 Russia’s major refineries have been attacked since the beginning of 2024. Some of them, including the Rosneft plant in Tuapse on the Black Sea coast that was attacked in January, have had to cease operations.

More at the link!

Well this is an amazing coincidence!

Yesterday, it was the Lukoil oil refinery that was attacked in the Nizhniy Novgorod region. Today, another top manager is dead at a fairly young age. pic.twitter.com/PlriBgKxsR

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 13, 2024

The Ukrainians, despite all they’ve been through, do this for the Russians despite the fact that the Russians do not do this for the Ukrainians.

Escorting a captured Russian soldier who confused Ukrainians from the 3rd Assault Brigade with "his own". pic.twitter.com/uemtWrrUcq

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 13, 2024

Kursk Oblast:

Fighters of the "Liberty of Russia" Legion "Apostol" and "Domovoy" state that the Russian unit is still in Tyotkyno, Kursk Oblast, despite claims by Russian officials that they've been knocked out with hundreds of losses. pic.twitter.com/g336541Iv0

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 13, 2024

Art of the wartime. pic.twitter.com/DC6YjmtQi4

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 13, 2024

Last night in the comments, Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom asked:

Adam, Alison, this is a personal question, & I am fine if you choose not to answer it or comment. What do the 2 of you think of Jonathan Glazer’s Oscar acceptance speech? Despite being Jewish himself, he’s received an incredible amount of criticism for it. There’s been some praise too, but it doesn’t balance out.

I can’t speak for Alison, nor would I try. I do not watch the Oscars, not this year or ever. So I did not see the speech. My understanding is that it was initially misreported and misrepresented. From what I can tell from reading his full remarks, they do not bother me at all. I think they are nuanced, which was something that disappeared quickly after the 7 October attacks. As far back as I can remember we have had a group of “professional” Jews who purport to speak for all Jews and who also do boundary maintenance on what is and is not acceptable for Jews to say or do. Basically they think the Deity died and left them in charge. I don’t have any real issues with what Glazer said.

Bookworm1398 asked:

@ Adam. The right wing blogs I visit are full of speculation about the resignation of Victoria Nuland and what it might mean for the administration’s Ukraine policy. So I was just wondering, is it significant? Does it mean anything?

Most of Biden’s top nat-sec people have either stayed far longer than one would expect or have been quietly resigning and moving on for the past six to ten months. The burn out rate for these positions is quite high. The work days never really end. You’re always on call and never really off the clock. And the Biden administration inherited multiple major crises and wicked problems and, over the past two years, have had a number of others rise to the surface as a result of neglect by prior administrations, the lack of adjustment of American policy and strategy going back decades, or a combination of the two. I’m not surprised she’s stepping down. Nor do I think it’ll make any difference. Right now the two major issues affecting the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy is the failure to get the Ukraine supplemental through the GOP majority House of Representatives and the Biden nat-sec team’s seeming inherent risk aversion.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

The Kremlin must get used to the fact that terror does not go unpunished for them – address by the President of Ukraine

12 March 2024 – 21:21

Dear Ukrainians!

The rescue operation after the Russian missile strike is still underway in Kryvyi Rih. A part of a nine-story apartment building was destroyed, as well as the ceiling between floors. There was a fire. Many people were injured – over 30. There are severely wounded. Everyone is being provided with the necessary assistance. Unfortunately, there are fatalities. My condolences to all family members and friends.

We will inflict losses on the Russian state in response – quite rightly. They in the Kremlin must get used to the fact that terror does not go unpunished for them. Nothing will cure these sick men of their evil, but they will feel the losses. The Russian state will lose, and only this can make it safe for its neighbors. Not only for Ukraine. For different nations, our actions are now life-saving.

Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi made a report about our actions on the battlefield, the actions of our reconnaissance officers, and the performance of our drones. The Commander-in-Chief is now at the front. And there is a necessary dynamic of actions for Ukraine. Today, I also received preliminary results on the use of our drones from the Armed Forces, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine. I think everyone can see our drones in action. Particularly in a long-range action. I am grateful to everyone who makes this possible. Our long-range capabilities are a real step closer to safety for everyone.

I held several important meetings throughout the day. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Interior Minister Klymenko, and other government officials. I agreed on further steps in the development of our State Border Guard Service and, accordingly, our border guard forces.

I am proud of every Ukrainian who serves in the border guard forces and protects the interests of our country and our national independence. We will increase the number of border guard forces, in view of both the current tasks of countering aggression and the long-term protection of our country’s borders after this war.

In addition, today I would like to recognize the units and warriors of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine who have been particularly effective in these weeks and months. In particular, the border guards of the Sumy Detachment who counter Russian subversive groups and strengthen our defensive positions on the border. I am grateful to all of you, warriors! Sergeants Artem Pedora and Oleksandr Poroskun deserve special gratitude. Chernihiv Border Guard Detachment: Master Sergeant Serhiy Khomenko and Senior Sergeant Serhiy Shvets. Thank you! Kharkiv Border Guard Detachment: Senior Soldier Valekh Zarbaliyev and Chief Sergeant Andriy Syzonov. Thank you, guys, for destroying Russian equipment and clearing the area of Russian mines! Of course, I am also grateful to everyone who is fighting at the front along with all units of our Defense Forces. The warriors of the Rapid Response Border Commandant’s Service of the Volyn Border Guard Detachment, the “Revenge” and “Steel Border” brigades, as well as the warriors of the special unit DOZOR. Well done to all of you.

The Minister of Internal Affairs reported on the key current security issues within the state, including the work of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine on demining. It is extremely important for saving the lives of our people – for protecting them from Russian mines and unexploded ordnance. I am grateful to each and every person involved in this work of clearing Ukrainian land.

There was an important economic report on our resource and energy sectors. We are making good progress. Various assets that have not been working for our country for decades are now producing the necessary results for the budget. And this gives everyone in our country more power.

And a few other things.

Yesterday I signed the law on lobbying. This was one of the prerequisites for further progress in relations with the European Union – we have fulfilled everything. And, as agreed with the President of the European Commission, today the Negotiating Framework for Ukraine was approved. We are one step closer to the European Union. The decision now rests with EU member states. We continue to prepare for the accession negotiations.

Today, I also want to thank the United States and all Americans who value freedom for the U.S. defense assistance to Ukraine. I am looking forward to our country receiving the new military aid package.

We are making every effort to strengthen Ukraine and Ukrainians while inflicting maximum losses on the occupiers.

Glory to everyone who is in Ukraine and with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

My Stupid Wild Ass Guess (SWAG) is that today’s strike on civilian targets in President Zelenskyy’s home town of Kryvyi Rih are reprisals for the recent spate of successful attacks in Russia that have been attributed to Ukraine. Such as last night’s strikes:

Tonight drones attacked Moscow, Tula, Nizhny Novgorod, Belgorod, Kursk, Orel, and Voronezh, targeting infrastructure like Lukoil Oil refinery in Novgorod and oil storage facility in Orel. Will Iran and North Korea now supply air defenses to Russia as well? pic.twitter.com/IxzppK0LbT

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 12, 2024

Lukoil describes it as an 'operational upset' at the 17-million tonne/year Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. This facility handles 5% of Russia's oil volume and sits 800 km away from Ukraine 👀 pic.twitter.com/b1xaXqH0Pw

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 12, 2024

Reuters article regarding the attack on Nizhny Novgorod oil facility:

Industry sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the main crude distillation unit (AVT-6) at NORSI was damaged in the attack, which means that at least half of the refinery's production is halted.… https://t.co/hyBDeYBNnI

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

Reuters article regarding the attack on Nizhny Novgorod oil facility:

Industry sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the main crude distillation unit (AVT-6) at NORSI was damaged in the attack, which means that at least half of the refinery’s production is halted. Lukoil declined to comment.

NORSI refines about 15.8 million tonnes of Russian crude a year, or 5.8% of total refined crude, according to industry sources.

It also refines about 4.9 million tonnes of gasoline, 11% of Russia’s total, 6.4% of diesel fuel, 5.6% of fuel oil and 7.4% of the country’s aviation fuel, according to industry sources.

https://reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-launches-drones-oryol-fuel-facility-other-regions-russia-says-2024-03-12/

Reuters has more details:

MOSCOW, March 12 (Reuters) – Ukraine pounded targets in Russia on Tuesday with dozens of drones and rockets in an attack that inflicted serious damage on a major oil refinery and sought to pierce the land borders of the world’s biggest nuclear power with armed proxies.

Russia and Ukraine have both used drones to strike critical infrastructure, military installations and troop concentrations in their more than two-year war, with Kyiv hitting Russian refineries and energy facilities in recent months.

In one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia to date, Moscow said it downed 25 Ukrainian drones over regions including Moscow, Leningrad, Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Tula and Oryol. Waves of drone attacks continued through the day, the defence ministry said.

Russian officials reported attacks on energy facilities, including a fire at Lukoil’s (LKOH.MM), opens new tab NORSI refinery and a drone destroyed on the outskirts of the town of Kirishi, home to Russia’s second largest oil refinery.

Gleb Nikitin, governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, posted a picture of a fire truck beside the NORSI refinery and said emergency services were working to put out a blaze there.

“A fuel and energy complex facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles,” Nikitin said on Telegram.Striking Russian oil facilities is a problem for President Vladimir Putin as he faces off against the West over Ukraine, with domestic gasoline prices sensitive ahead of a March 15-17 presidential election.

Russia imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports on March 1.

Along with Iran, Saudi Arabia and the U.S., Russia has vast energy reserves but has, since oil was discovered in the wilds of Western Siberia in the 1960s, often relied on Western technology to exploit and refine its crude.

The Kremlin said the Russian military was doing everything necessary and that what it calls its military operation in Ukraine would continue.

Russia says it has destroyed more than 15,000 Ukrainian-launched drones since the start of the war.

The Biden administration. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

🧵Jake Sullivan: Today, on behalf of President Biden, I'm announcing an emergency package of security assistance of $300 million worth of weapons and equipment to address some of Ukraine's pressing needs.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 12, 2024

This is possible because of unanticipated cost savings in contracts that DOD negotiated to replace equipment we’ve already sent to Ukraine through previous drawdowns. 

We’re able to use these cost savings to make this modest amount of new security assistance available. 

Right now without impacting U.S. military readiness. And the President has directed his team to use these cost savings. This emergency package that we’re announcing contains a large tranche of artillery rounds and (inaudible) for the Himars. 

It is assistance that Ukraine desperately needs to hold the line against Russian attacks, and to push back against the continuing Russian onslaught in the Eastern and other parts of Ukraine. 

This ammunition will keep Ukraine’s guns firing for a period, but only a short period it is nowhere near enough to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs and it will not prevent Ukraine from running out of ammunition in the weeks to come. 

It goes without saying this package does not displace and should not delay the critical need to pass the bipartisan national security bill. 

As you all know, …& President Biden said it to the entire nation in the State of the Union last week that we cannot provide ongoing assistance to Ukraine without significantly impacting our military readiness, absent congressional action. 

That remains the case, despite this modest amount of cost savings that we are putting to use on an urgent basis.

Congress must act. The House of Representatives must pass the bipartisan national security supplemental as soon as possible. 

We all know that if it came up for a vote, it would pass on an overwhelmingly bipartisan basis, just as it did in the Senate.

And there is no other way around this. 

The House has got to pass the supplemental as soon as possible to allow us to continue the flow of vital security…assistance to Ukraine to replenish the US military’s munitions stocks, to invest in our industrial base and to support jobs in 40 states across the United States. 

The clock is ticking and we need to see action as rapidly as possible, even as we do everything in our power to get Ukraine what it needs in its hour of need.

William Burns, Director of the CIA, about providing aid to Ukraine:

"With this supplemental assistance, Ukraine can put itself in a position… to achieve an outcome in which Putin's goal which was to subjugate Ukraine and to control its choices would be denied.

Without… pic.twitter.com/BqzaNZTwZt

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 12, 2024

William Burns, Director of the CIA, about providing aid to Ukraine:

“With this supplemental assistance, Ukraine can put itself in a position… to achieve an outcome in which Putin’s goal which was to subjugate Ukraine and to control its choices would be denied.

Without supplemental assistance…lies a much grimmer future…you’re going to see more Avdiivkas, and that, it seems to me, would be a massive and historic mistake for the United States.”

About damn time!

The EU and Washington DC:

EU countries are set to agree a new €5bn top-up to a fund used to finance military shipments to Ukraine, as the US managed to scrape together $300mn more in ammunition and artillery for Kyiv. @HenryJFoy and @felschwartz https://t.co/3diNoD2AfE

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 12, 2024

The Financial Times has details:

EU countries are set to agree a new €5bn top-up to a fund used to finance military shipments to Ukraine, as the US managed to scrape together $300mn more in ammunition and artillery for Kyiv.

The EU deal, which needs formal approval at a meeting of member states on Wednesday, unlocks fresh cash for the reimbursement of arms supplies to Kyiv by countries in the bloc as a $60bn package is being held up by US Congress at a critical time for Ukraine’s war effort against Russia.

“[The] Ukrainians are struggling without ammunition,” a senior US defence official said in reference to recent advances by Russia and warnings from the Ukrainian military that it is rationing shells. “There was an imperative to act.”

The EU fund, known as the European Peace Facility, will prioritise weapons manufactured inside the bloc but not exclude those from non-EU countries if they are the only option, officials familiar with the matter told the Financial Times said.

The fund been a critical part of European military supplies to Ukraine since February 2022, but has been depleted and talks about a top-up have been ongoing for the past three months. One official said the agreement was about “flexibility by need and not by design. Driven by Ukrainian needs.”

The US has also run out of money to replenish the weapons sent to Ukraine and needs about $10bn in funds from Congress to replace weapons it has already sent, senior officials said. But recent savings from army contracts have allowed the US to cobble together about $300mn in additional assistance, they said.

“We do have funds . . . that can cover the cost of one more package, but this is a bit of an ad hoc or one time shot. We don’t know if or when future savings will come in, and we certainly can’t count on this as a way of doing business,” the senior US defence official said.

In the past the US was sending much larger packages about every two weeks or so to sustain Ukraine’s fight. Before Tuesday’s announcement, the US had provided $44.2bn in military assistance since Russia’s full-blown invasion in February 2022.

It has not sent any new assistance since December and the Biden administration is still hoping Congress will act to pass some $60bn in new assistance for Ukraine.

Some Republican and Democratic House lawmakers are working to force a vote on the $60bn package this week, which has passed the Senate but has been stalled in the House.

While Europe can plug some of the gaps the lack of US assistance leaves, ultimately it cannot provide what the US can, said Radosław Sikorski, foreign minister of Poland, in Washington on Tuesday.

He said: “We physically don’t have the weapons that are needed at the front. You have the weapons, so on Europe is crucial on the financial side. The United States is crucial on the military side.”

More at the link.

Poland:

Situation in Ukraine and future of NATO discussed in the meeting of 🇵🇱 President @AndrzejDuda with @SpeakerJohnson and @RepJeffries. https://t.co/e0yjqXt8UD

— Marek Magierowski (@mmagierowski) March 12, 2024

I hope President Duda gave them an earful! Like this:

Denmark:

I am grateful to Minister @troelslundp and all the people of Denmark for the new sizeable military aid package for Ukraine valued at 2,3 billion DKK ($337 million).

Denmark will co-finance additional CAESAR artillery systems in cooperation with France and 155-mm ammunition with… pic.twitter.com/F08R6rakkM

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) March 12, 2024

I am grateful to Minister @troelslundp and all the people of Denmark for the new sizeable military aid package for Ukraine valued at 2,3 billion DKK ($337 million).

Denmark will co-finance additional CAESAR artillery systems in cooperation with France and 155-mm ammunition with Estonia and the Czech Republic. The package also includes 120-mm self-propelled mortars.

Thank you for strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities.

Russia has posted it’s high value target list:

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, they are the most dangerous enemies of Russia in the Baltic countries. 👇This is another hybrid warfare act against the NATO countries. It just shows how right we are. Ukraine must WIN and Russia must be DEFEATED https://t.co/v2DXVzDNfR pic.twitter.com/4BUvxPlXnE

— Marko Mihkelson (@markomihkelson) March 12, 2024

While I don’t think he’s on the list above, Leonid Volkov, the Chief of Staff for the late Alexey Navalny, was violently attacked earlier today.

Leonid Volkov @leonidvolkov – my dear colleague and a member of Alexei Navalny's team – has just been attacked outside his house in Europe.

Someone broke a car window and sprayed tear gas in his eyes, after which the attacker started hitting Leonid with a hammer.

Leonid is… pic.twitter.com/7lSYzxynOv

— Nadya Tolokonnikova (@nadyariot) March 12, 2024

Leonid Volkov @leonidvolkov – my dear colleague and a member of Alexei Navalny’s team – has just been attacked outside his house in Europe.

Someone broke a car window and sprayed tear gas in his eyes, after which the attacker started hitting Leonid with a hammer.

Leonid is now at home, police and ambulance are on their way to him.

Been just chatting with Leonid like 30 minutes ago and WTF WTF WTF

HITTING WITH A HAMMER WTF
PUTIN IS A KILLER

 

Leonid Volkov @leonidvolkov has just been attacked outside his house. Someone broke a car window and sprayed tear gas in his eyes, after which the attacker started hitting Leonid with a hammer. Leonid is now at home, police and ambulance are on their way to him

— Кира Ярмыш (@Kira_Yarmysh) March 12, 2024

Killing Navalny wasn't enough. Like Ukraine won't be enough. Aggressive dictators don't stop unless & until they are stopped.

Attacking Volkov in Lithuania—a NATO country—is a message that Putin killed Navalny, and will attempt to kill every oppositionist in and out of Russia. https://t.co/0R4LZMldYk

— 🇺🇦Paula Chertok🗽 (@PaulaChertok) March 12, 2024

Ivanovo Oblast, Russia:

Russia’s state RIA Novosti, citing Defense Ministry, reports the military IL-76 plane crashed during takeoff in the Ivanovo region. There were eight crew members and seven passengers on board. The cause was a fire in one of the engines during takeoff.

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 12, 2024

/10. pic.twitter.com/z7oW79G3qv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

Here’s the full image of the meme above.

/12. IL-76 crash site pic.twitter.com/IKY7oiRlpY

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

Free Russia Legion liberated the village of Tyotkino in Kursk Oblast. Russian occupiers were seen running away, abandoning their vehicles and positions, as reported by Legion's press service.https://t.co/XSqMafcTba pic.twitter.com/NGRvTdwRpc

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 12, 2024

Footage of a Russian tank belonging to the "Russian Volunteer Corps" shelling positions of the kremlin occupational formations.https://t.co/mUH9IzVHxu pic.twitter.com/SjlwUZJYGs

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 12, 2024

Explosions heard at the entrance to Belgorod.

Just for clarity, highly doubtful there will be any meaningful incursion into the city itself. pic.twitter.com/phkGjSH2ER

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 12, 2024

Russian Legion and RDK have crossed border with Russia in Kursk and Belgorod regions. Are they possibly bringing in additional voting boxes? pic.twitter.com/yrySN6gPtx

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 12, 2024

Reuters has reporting on the cross border incursion by these Ukrainian aligned Russian militias.

Russia said Ukrainian proxies had sought to cross the Russian border in at least seven attacks that Russian forces had repelled. The Russian-speaking Ukrainian proxies said they had breached the border, a claim denied by Russia.

Russia said its forces prevented incursions from Ukraine in the western Belgorod and Kursk regions and inflicted heavy losses on the attackers, after Ukraine-based armed groups said they had launched cross-border raids.

“Ukrainian terrorist formations, supported by tanks and armoured combat vehicles, attempted to invade the territory of the Russian Federation simultaneously,” the Russian defence ministry said.

At least two Ukraine-based armed groups purporting to be made up of Russians opposed to the Kremlin said they had launched an incursion across Russia’s western border on Tuesday.

Russia denied that the groups, which Moscow casts as puppets of the Ukrainian military and U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, had penetrated its territory, but said the border had come under attack in several places.

The TASS news agency cited the Federal Security Service (FSB) as saying Russian forces had killed 100 people and destroyed multiple armoured vehicles when fighting off attempted incursions.

Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine had fired eight RM-70 rockets and one Tochka-U missile at the Belgorod region.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!