There should be no place of rest for the occupier – address by the President of Ukraine

11 March 2024 – 20:56

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, most of the day was devoted to military and war issues. First, the meeting of the Staff. Detailed reports on each direction of our frontline: from Kupyansk to Kherson region. The Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff, the commanders of the directions, the Ministry of Defense.

The troops are now stabilizing our positions at the front. And they are doing so despite the fact that supplies from our partners remain significantly limited. I am grateful to every soldier and commander – to all our warriors who ensure our defense and our frontline operations with their strength and resilience. And I am grateful to every enterprise here in Ukraine and to all joint ventures with partners for the continuous increase in our own supplies, for the much-needed weapons for our independence: drones, shells, artillery, and vehicles.

There was also a report on the construction of fortifications. More than 2,000 kilometers of tasks, shoring up the existing fortifications and creating new ones – at least three lines of our strength. They are designed to meet the threats. All the necessary resources have been deployed. The government, regional leaders and the military are personally responsible for the result. The result should speak for itself, with its reliability for every soldier.

Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and Defense Minister Umerov made a separate report. They spoke about the current situation at the front and about planning our actions. There should be no place of rest for the occupier. Today we also discussed preparations for the next Ramstein meeting and the key points of our communication with partners regarding weapons and ammunition.

Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Budanov also delivered a separate report. Several issues were raised. First of all, Russia’s military plans. Not only against our country, but also against other nations. The common task of the world now is to thwart this sick Putin’s fantasy that he allegedly has time to continue the war. Perhaps he will intensify mobilization after the imitation of “elections” now in March. Mobilization of Russians. However, we must further limit the mobilization of resources and finances, tightening the remnants of Russia’s ties with the world even more severely. And everyone who values the lives of their people must do this – every leader. I am grateful to everyone who helps.

Today I held several meetings with government officials, the financial and economic block of our government and the National Bank, to discuss the state of our financial system. We ensure the stability and reliable operation of financial institutions. We also discussed this year’s budget work. I am grateful to all entrepreneurs who work, pay taxes and preserve jobs.

This is the period of our maximum concentration, our maximum initiative to ensure that it is Ukraine that determines a just end to this war. We can endure. We have to win.

Glory to all who fight and work for the sake of Ukraine and Ukrainians! Glory to everyone in the world who upholds justice!

Glory to Ukraine!

20 Days in Mariupol has won an Oscar 2024 in the Documentary Feature Film category.

The documentary directed by Mstyslav Chernov describes the terrible events in the city: the deaths of children and adults, the mass graves, the maternity ward destroyed by a russian airstrike,… pic.twitter.com/vOALXVQzDb

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 11, 2024

20 Days in Mariupol has won an Oscar 2024 in the Documentary Feature Film category.

The documentary directed by Mstyslav Chernov describes the terrible events in the city: the deaths of children and adults, the mass graves, the maternity ward destroyed by a russian airstrike, and other russian war crimes.

The world has to know the truth about russia’s war crimes.
Democracies have to provide Ukraine with military aid to defeat russian aggression.

It is a great honor for us to represent Ukraine at the Oscars ceremony. This statuette, this victory is for Ukrainians, for the people of Mariupol. I’m thankful to everyone who defends our country and fights for our freedom. pic.twitter.com/xgPghNCJfn

— Мstyslav Chernov (@mstyslavchernov) March 11, 2024

The City of Mary by the Sea.

We remember you as you were living your best life that hot and bright summer of ‘21.

Clean streets, wonderful coffee shops and new restaurants, the gentle roar of the sea, boys and girls playing volleyball on the beach, the magnificent contours of… pic.twitter.com/RtXqe8aNqZ

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 11, 2024

The City of Mary by the Sea.

We remember you as you were living your best life that hot and bright summer of ‘21.

Clean streets, wonderful coffee shops and new restaurants, the gentle roar of the sea, boys and girls playing volleyball on the beach, the magnificent contours of gigantic steel factories.

The last summer before the Russian plague came — and turned a vibrant city, the fastest developing one in Ukraine, into a giant mass grave amid ruins.

Why, whatever for, how could they have so much hatred, savagery, and bloodthirstiness on their mind to do THAT.

I’m afraid the holocaust of Mariupol was in 2022 was so horrific that we, even two years on, do not fully realize what had happened to the City of Mary by the Sea.

Guys behind @20DaysMariupol did the greatest piece of journalism amid this war, and one of the greatest journalistic works of all time.

I just hope the world will finally make conclusions from what it saw as the Oscar’s best documentary 2023.

Otherwise, we fail as a species again.

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence held its annual hearing with the Directors of National Intelligence, Central Intelligence, and the FBI today.

🧵DNI Avril Haines: Putin strategic goals remain unchanged. He continues to see NATO enlargement and Western support to Ukraine as reinforcing his long held belief that the United States and Europe seek to restrict Russian power and undermine him.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024

🇺🇸🙏 Without additional support, in 2024 you will see "even more Avdiivka" in Ukraine, — CIA chief William Burns pic.twitter.com/rLrAs89nwE

— MAKS 23 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 11, 2024

Burns: The truth is that the Ukrainians are not running out of courage and tenacity. They’re running out of ammunition. And we’re running out of time to help them.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024

Burns on Putin: “It’s our assessment that Russia is not serious about negotiations today, in the sense that they may be interested in the theater of negotiations, but they're not really interested in negotiating, in the sense of compromise right now.“

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024

“the Russian leadership…in other words, to puncture his confidence that time is on his side, to demonstrate that for Russia also, there are long term consequences to this war, They’ve already suffered enormously in terms of their military 315,000+ dead and wounded.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 11, 2024

Here’s the link to the Annual Threat Assessment.

"We also cannot continue putting the ball on our supplemental funding request in support of Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression," says @DepSecDef. "We need Congress to come together. The world is watching what we do in this moment."

— Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) March 11, 2024

From Politico: (emphasis mine)

The Pentagon has sent $10 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine that it still does not have the money to replace due to congressional gridlock, according to a top Defense Department official.

DOD officials expect funding to replenish the equipment the U.S. has already sent to Ukraine to be included in President Joe Biden’s supplemental request, which provides billions of additional dollars in aid for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. But that legislation has languished on Capitol Hill for months amid partisan bickering.

If DOD does not get the funding to backfill its stocks, the impact of that “ongoing hole” will ultimately be felt by the U.S. military’s own forces, said a senior DOD official, who was granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement.

“We have not been able to, with the funding we have to date — and there’s a big funding piece waiting in the supplemental — replenish everything we’ve already given to Ukraine,” the official told reporters. “So it would come back on our own readiness on our own stockpile to a certain extent if we can’t get new funding.”

DOD announced in December that it would be unable to send new weapons to Kyiv until Congress approves Biden’s supplemental request. But this is the first time officials have acknowledged that the U.S. is already in a $10 billion hole when it comes to backfilling its stocks.

The deficit stems from the difference in the value of the equipment sent to Ukraine compared to the cost to replace it: For example, if the Army sends older munitions that are no longer being produced, it might replace them with a newer version that is more expensive.

The comments come as the Pentagon on Monday unveiled its budget request for fiscal 2025, though lawmakers have yet to pass an appropriations bill for fiscal 2024. The Pentagon is operating under a stopgap measure, called a continuing resolution, that freezes spending at last year’s levels and prevents officials from starting new programs.

U.S. officials are growing concerned that Ukraine is running out of critical weapons, including ammunition and air defenses, as lawmakers stall on the aid package. But there are worries, too, about shortfalls in U.S. weapons if officials are not able to replenish DOD’s stocks.

The $10 billion covers only the cost to replace munitions and other weapons the U.S. has already sent Ukraine. It does not include the increase of U.S. forces to Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine to help defend allies in Eastern Europe as well as train the Ukrainians, which is an expense the Army is paying, the official said.

But officials view Ukraine as the more urgent problem. DOD has been unable to send Kyiv additional weapons since December, when appropriations to backfill its stocks ran out. The department still has $4.4 billion in authority to send aid to Ukraine, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has been “reluctant” to tap into that fund without money to replace the weapons in the U.S., the official said.

DOD is unable to legally transfer money from other accounts to replenish the weapons it sends to Ukraine, the official stressed.

As another option, DOD officials have discussed using $200 million in savings that the Army negotiated in prior contracts for weapons for Ukraine to send additional aid, the official said. However, that is not an alternative to the $66 billion supplemental, the official said. Bloomberg first reported this option.

“We are still, in the big scheme of things, pretty close to broke,” the official said.

The senior official urged lawmakers to pass the legislation, saying the failure to do so will cost Ukraine dearly.

“They are low on ammunition today. They are fighting and dying today. If we can’t help them, there isn’t another industrial base on the planet that can really take our place,” the official said.

Given the House GOP majority’s unwillingness and inability to pass regular appropriations, let alone the Ukraine supplemental, these developments in Brussels are welcome.

Brussels proposal to fast track up to €3bn for Ukraine from frozen Russian assets set to be put to member states in the coming days, could see money spent on arms for Kyiv as soon as this summer https://t.co/rCY1rBkJyF via @ft w @lauramdubois & @paolatamma

— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) March 11, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Brussels is pushing to give Ukraine €2bn-€3bn this year from profits derived from Russia’s frozen assets, accelerating the funding plan as US financial support to Kyiv wanes.

The European Commission is preparing a plan, according to officials, that would involve seizing sanctions-related profits, dating from February onwards, earned at the central securities depository Euroclear.

After months of wrangling, a first tranche of money could be disbursed as early as July if Brussels can secure approval of member states, officials said. The proposal is expected before a summit of EU leaders next week.

Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has called for the funds to be used for military support, rather than postwar reconstruction as had been originally envisaged — a contentious approach for some capitals.

About €190bn in Russian sovereign assets have been immobilised at Euroclear since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, generating €3.85bn in profits.

The latest plans would provide between €2bn and €3bn to Ukraine this year, depending on interest rates, the officials said. The total profits siphoned from Euroclear could reach €20bn by 2027, according to EU officials.

The hotly debated question of whether to use Russian funds tied up in Brussels-based Euroclear to aid Ukraine has become more pressing as the war has entered its third year and international aid has dwindled.

The depository holds the bulk of the €260bn in Russian central bank assets frozen by western sanctions.

With G7 countries split over whether to seize the underlying assets and hand them over to Ukraine, the EU proposed a parallel track of using only the profits.

The EU initially planned to use some of the Euroclear funds for Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction, but with further US military aid blocked by Republicans in Congress, the focus has moved to military support.

Von der Leyen last month floated the idea of using the profits to buy weapons for Ukrainian forces, but this suggestion is likely to face opposition from member states, including Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.

According to the Kyiv finance ministry, only about half of the $37bn needed from international partners this year has been committed by the EU and the IMF. Officials in Ukraine have reached out to other partners and are hoping the profits on frozen assets could help fill that gap.

The EU could use the profits to buy weapons for Ukraine through an existing fund for which member states are currently negotiating a €5bn top-up, or to invest in the Ukrainian defence industry.

According to a draft of the commission’s internal proposal seen by the Financial Times, Brussels could appropriate 97 per cent of the net profits derived from frozen Russian assets held by Euroclear, and transfer them to the EU budget.

The money would then be paid out every quarter or twice a year and “could be used to the benefit of Ukraine according to different arrangements”, the draft says.

More at the link.

Now we have to wait to see if the EU actually does it and what it means if it does do so. One of the major issues is that neither the US, nor the EU member states defense manufacturing base are currently able to produce enough weapons systems, ammunition, and other defense material to meet Ukraine’s needs. Having more money to buy weapons, weapons systems, and ammunition is a great thing. But only if there is stuff one can buy with it. Also, Euroclear is a major financial system player. It is unclear what doing this would do to global markets. As in whether it would destabilize them.

As are these in the Czech Republic:

Czech President Petr Pavel made the impossible possible and not only organized 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine but also the financing. Around €1.5 billion have been organized and the ammunition will arrive the coming weeks.

The source of the ammunition is not entirely… pic.twitter.com/hRTQAkqbcM

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 11, 2024

Czech President Petr Pavel made the impossible possible and not only organized 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine but also the financing. Around €1.5 billion have been organized and the ammunition will arrive the coming weeks.

The source of the ammunition is not entirely disclosed but according to to Bild speculations go that it might be South Korea, Turkey and South Africa. I would like to add that I find it possible that Pakistan is also one of the suppliers.

This extraordinary feat shows once again that if there is a will then there is a way.

Source: Bild

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

/2. Ship location. (46.5064328, 32.1549024) pic.twitter.com/Qom9RZ4nZH

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 11, 2024

/4. On satellite images, an object was occasionally seen (on 3/8 of March) near the ship/command post. Probably those are the boats during the resupply mission. https://t.co/ImuSUHc1cQ pic.twitter.com/IbZzFQtvX1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

Rumours that the infamous rus blogger "13th" was on board. If so, he'd left behind 200k+ followers on telegram. https://t.co/JXJ5ZwGLmg

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 11, 2024

"13th" turned out to be alive for now, as I presumed. Rather silly from a guy who was cursing Putin in June 2023 and fully supported the late Pringles in his march on Moscow.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 11, 2024

More about the drone strikes at Taganrog, Russia:

"Ukrainian officials…told the FT that an attack by Ukraine at the weekend had critically damaged two Russian A-50 long-range radar detection planes at an aircraft repair facility in the southern port city of Taganrog."@ChristopherJM @maxseddon https://t.co/iIngkUrVY2 https://t.co/OaBv12BKN2 pic.twitter.com/lAJZBJSkyz

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 11, 2024

It appears the Ukrainians did damage more Russian A-50s.

The Financial Times has the details:

Ukrainian officials who confirmed the change in Russia’s navy leadership also told the FT that an attack by Ukraine at the weekend had critically damaged two Russian A-50 long-range radar detection planes at an aircraft repair facility in the southern port city of Taganrog.

In addition to attacks on the Russian navy, Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv’s forces on Saturday had successfully used domestically produced drones to critically damage the two Russian A-50s.

Satellite images appeared to support their assessment. They showed blast marks in the area where one of the long-range radar detection aircraft had been parked on the tarmac at the time of the attack and on the rooftop of the hangar where the other plane is believed to have been located.

A representative for Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate said on Monday that the agency was still working to clarify the extent of the damage to the planes and declined to provide further information. Ukraine’s air force declined to comment.

Serhiy Prytula, a Ukrainian public figure with connections to the military whose charity has hugely contributed to Kyiv’s wartime fundraising and production of its drone programme, boasted to his donors on X that their efforts had contributed to the success of the attack on the Taganrog facility.

Russia’s defence ministry claimed on Saturday that it had shot down 41 drones in the area but did not comment on reports the facility had been hit. One emergency services worker was taken to hospital, according to local officials.

Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s chief of military intelligence, told the FT in January that Russia had eight operational A-50 long-range radar detection planes prior to one being shot down by Kyiv’s forces over the Sea of Azov at the time. The three attacks since then means that Ukraine has now destroyed or badly damaged half of Russia’s A-50s in under two months.

The destruction of just one A-50, Budanov said in January, would probably affect Russia’s ability to operate and communicate in the war zone “around the clock”. The destruction of three more could have a huge impact on its reconnaissance and communications abilities, officials said.

After the second loss of an A-50, British defence intelligence said that Russia had “highly likely grounded the fleet from flying in support of Ukraine operations”.

Russia’s defence ministry has not commented on the loss of the first two planes, which pro-war bloggers ascribed to “friendly fire”.

Kursk, Russia:

Kursk, Russia, Special Military Operation zone, is under some sort of UAV attack pic.twitter.com/cELIHynrpd

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 11, 2024

Oryol, Russia:

/1. Russian oil depot in Oryol, hit by kamikaze drones. 165km from the Ukraine border.
(52.9614580, 36.1103500) pic.twitter.com/4cG6Jnb6J1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 12, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

I’m so sorry we won this Oscar. But I’m so thankful to the team of @mstyslavchernov that showed the story of Mariupol’s victims https://t.co/EyxFZTm767

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 11, 2024

Open thread!

More air defense systems and means of destruction of Russian aviation bring peace closer – address by the President of Ukraine

10 March 2024 – 22:08

Dear Ukrainians!

A few important things for this day and these weeks.

First of all, our defenders of the sky.

I would like to recognize all Ukrainian warriors who defend our sky every day and night. Only this Sunday night they managed to shoot down 35 “Shahed” drones. In total, since the beginning of March, Russian terrorists have already used 175 such killer drones against Ukraine. Fortunately, 151 of them were shot down by our warriors. And this is a very important result. Yes, not all of them. Yes, there are hits. Unfortunately, there are losses. There are casualties. But there are also people saved.

I am grateful to every warrior of our mobile firing groups in all regions of combat duty. I am grateful to every pilot and engineer of the Air Force, to all our air defense warriors. We will further enhance our firepower and Ukrainian air defense. More air defense systems and other means of destruction of Russian aviation bring peace closer. I am grateful to everyone in the world who helps us with this. Ukraine will have more air defense systems – we are working very hard on this.

Second. Our Defense Forces consist of many elements. Many brigades and units. And everyone who serves at the front, everyone who defends the state from Russian saboteurs and terror, everyone who performs combat missions deserves gratitude and respect. Russian murderers and torturers are not moving further into Europe only because they are being held back by Ukrainians with weapons in their hands and under the blue and yellow flag. In Ukraine, there were many once-white walls of houses and churches that are now scorched and ruined by Russian shells. And this speaks very eloquently about who has to stop for the war to end.

Anyone who protects life and people fulfills the most honorable possible mission amid such an inhuman invasion. And we must fully protect life in our home. And I thank everyone who supports our defense, Ukrainian defenders.

When the Russian evil started this war on February 24, all Ukrainians stood up for defense. Christians, Muslims, Jews – everyone. I thank every Ukrainian chaplain who is with the army, in the Defense Forces. They are on the frontline, protecting life and humanity, supporting with prayer, conversation, and deeds. This is what the church is – it is together with people, not two and a half thousand kilometers away somewhere, virtually mediating between someone who wants to live and someone who wants to destroy you. I thank everyone who is doing everything in Ukraine and with Ukraine to save lives, I thank everyone who is helping and who is really with us through actions and prayers.

Today I would like to recognize the servicemen of our National Guard who are fighting alongside everyone else on the frontline in the east and south of Ukraine. The warriors of the 3rd operational brigade – Junior Sergeant Viktor Ivanov and Lieutenant Kyrylo Kudinov. The 5th Slobozhanska Brigade of the National Guard – soldiers Serhiy Turilkin and Mykola Hnatyuk. I would also like to recognize the warriors of the 1st and 3rd assault squads of the Omega Special Forces Center of the National Guard. Thank you for your skills and the results Ukraine needs.

Also, following these weeks, we have reasons for gratitude to the servicemen of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine – the details should not be disclosed publicly now, but the enemy definitely feels their work. And the more the Russian state loses, the sooner all this evil of war will disappear from our land.

Today I spoke with French President Macron. The conversation lasted more than an hour. I am grateful to Emmanuel for his new initiatives in support of Ukraine, for his leadership, which gives all of us in Europe strength. I am grateful for the new defense package. We discussed the schedule and key expected results of our upcoming meeting in Ukraine.

One more thing. The holy month of Ramadan is now beginning for Muslims in Ukraine and around the world. And this year, unfortunately, Ramadan is overshadowed by ongoing war and suffering. May this month bring us all closer to a fair and just peace. Not only for Ukraine. But for all the nations that are suffering from war. Humanity is capable of achieving a level of unity where justice protects life from wars.

I am grateful to everyone who helps Ukraine and Ukrainians! I am grateful to everyone who defends life and justice!

Ramadan Mubarak! Glory to Ukraine!

And Ukrainian FM Kuleba’s even more pointed response to the Pope: “Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags.” https://t.co/r4oADwXHSn

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 10, 2024

The excerpt from President Zelenskyy is in the copied and pasted transcript of his address above. Here is the remainder of Foreign Minister Kuleba’s tweet:

The strongest is the one who, in the battle between good and evil, stands on the side of good rather than attempting to put them on the same footing and call it “negotiations”.

At the same time, when it comes to the white flag, we know this Vatican’s strategy from the first half of the twentieth century. I urge to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past and to support Ukraine and its people in their just struggle for their lives.

Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags.

We thank His Holiness Pope Francis for his constant prayers for peace, and we continue to hope that after two years of devastating war in the heart of Europe, the Pontiff will find an opportunity to pay an Apostolic visit to Ukraine to support over a million Ukrainian Catholics, over five million Greek-Catholics, all Christians, and all Ukrainians.

 

Overnight, russia attacked Ukraine with 39 "Shahed" kamikaze drones.
Ukrainian air defenders shot down 35 UAVs.

Great work by our warriors. Thank you for your service!
We are also grateful to our partners for strengthening Ukraine's air defense capabilities.

📷: 53rd… pic.twitter.com/Q6OpXWoZrK

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 10, 2024

Overnight, russia attacked Ukraine with 39 “Shahed” kamikaze drones.
Ukrainian air defenders shot down 35 UAVs.

Great work by our warriors. Thank you for your service!
We are also grateful to our partners for strengthening Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.

📷: 53rd Mechanized Brigade (Illustrative photo)

For you Oscar enthusiasts:

🇺🇦🤞Fingers crossed for this incredible and important film to win tonight. https://t.co/xRXziUNobY

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 10, 2024

This might seem like a lot but actually accounts for just the minimum.

Ukrainian officials are looking at taking unpleasant internal measures to raise the $20.8bn, such as privatisation, tax hikes and worst case scenario, print more hryvnia

— Isobel Koshiw (@IKoshiw) March 10, 2024

For (2), worth bearing in mind how much ammo Ukraine needs to prevent Russian forces from advancing. To take one example, Ukraine’s defense min has said Ukraine needs roughly 110,000 155mm shells per month at a cost of €3,300each. That’s just one type of shell.

— Isobel Koshiw (@IKoshiw) March 10, 2024

The southern front:

/2. Spartan Brigade repels Russian attack on the southern fronthttps://t.co/99us9nroMb pic.twitter.com/8vd3FDpGhp

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 10, 2024

Germany:

Someone linked to this in the comments last night, I apologize for forgetting who.

Opposition leader of the CDU and potential next German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, delivered a fiery speech yesterday night in Stuttgart. I translated the core message.

Since I have been saying this for years and even carry this message in my signature, I approve this message by… pic.twitter.com/xPsdoPWmFc

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 9, 2024

Opposition leader of the CDU and potential next German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, delivered a fiery speech yesterday night in Stuttgart. I translated the core message.

Since I have been saying this for years and even carry this message in my signature, I approve this message by 100%.

Here is the whole address by CDU leader Friedrich Merz. I can’t vouch for the quality of the English dub.

The likely future german chancellor @_FriedrichMerz delivered a groundbreaking strategical speech yesterday.
Every second of these 8 minutes are worth listening to.

Germany, Europe, NATO, Ukraine and the free world needs this change.
Decent ai dubbed english translation . pic.twitter.com/PjeDTk2YVl

— C Schmitz (@chrisschmitz) March 9, 2024

Russia:

Vladimir Putin confirms he thinks he is a God. pic.twitter.com/e5bCAXjozV

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 10, 2024

I don’t know if Putin thinks he’s god, but he’s certainly completely all in on the alternative history he used to promote, then added to and expanded on, and now seems to accept as actual fact.

Khanty-Mansi Oblast, Russia:

A large fire broke out at a gas pipeline in the Khanty-Mansi region, Russia. This is the second incident of that kind after a similar event happened back in May 2023.

Source: Telegram / Shot pic.twitter.com/Hroqjv8GQp

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 10, 2024

St. Petersburg, Russia:

The fire which broke out in a warehouse/hangar near the Pulkovo Airport in Sankt Petersburg, Russia, caused all civilian air operations to be halted in this area.

Source of videos: Telegram / Stranaua pic.twitter.com/mBOsa1Nlez

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 10, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

A small furry warrior—the cutest thing you've seen today.

📹: @shaybaboy / Instagram pic.twitter.com/SmwCADJEcd

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 10, 2024

Open thread.

The President and the First Lady took part in the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize ceremony

9 March 2024 – 15:36

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska participated in the ceremony of awarding the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize.

“Today, we announce worthy winners of the Shevchenko Prize. We thank them,” said the Head of State.

According to the President’s decree, the 2024 Taras Shevchenko National Prize in the Music Art category was awarded to artist Susana Jamaladinova (Jamala) for the album Qirim.

Also in the Music Art category, composer Karmella Tsepkolenko received the prize for cantatas “Reading the History” based on the poetry of Oksana Zabuzhko, “Where are you coming from, dark caravan, you flock of birds?” based on the poetry of Serhiy Zhadan, Duel-duet for violin and double bass, and Symphony No. 5.

In the Literature category, the prize was awarded to poet and servicewoman Yaryna Chornohuz for the poetry book “[dasein: defense of presence]” and to poet and serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmytro Lazutkin for the poetry book “Bookmark.”

Artist Andriy Yermolenko received the award in the Visual Arts category for the series of artworks “Ukrainian resistance.”

The laureates of the prize in the Theatrical Art category were stage director Ivan Uryvsky, production designer Tetiana Ovsiichuk, and choir conductor Susanna Karpenko for the performance “The Witch of Konotop” based on the story by Hryhoriy Kvitka-Osnovyanenko at the Ivan Franko National Academic Drama Theater.

In the Publicism/Journalism category, the prize winners were Yevhen Maloletka, Mstyslav Chernov, and Vasylysa Stepanenko for a series of journalistic materials on the siege of Mariupol (reports, photo and video reports, investigations, and the film “20 Days in Mariupol”). The film crew is in Los Angeles, representing Ukrainian cinema at the Oscar award ceremony.

The President called on those present to honor the memory of Ukrainian artists whose lives were taken by the Russian war.

“Viktoria Amelina. Volodymyr Vakulenko. Anton Romanchenko. Viktor Onysko. Ivan Kuzminsky. And many, many others… Who created and added deep meaning to the simple mode of address ‘Ukrainian men, Ukrainian women.’ I ask now to honor the memory of all whose lives became the life of Ukraine,” said Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

He said that war may take away a talented person from us, but it will never take away the memory of how much this talent has gifted Ukraine and our people, nor will it take away the respect for it.

“I want the memory of Ukrainian talents to never fade away. I want the strength of Ukrainian talents to never diminish. And I want applause to Ukrainian talents always sound in Ukraine,” added the President.

The solemn event was attended by Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk, Head of the President’s Office Andriy Yermak and his deputies, Chairman of the Committee on the Taras Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine Yevhen Nyschuk, Acting Minister of Culture and Information Policy Rostyslav Karandieiev, and other officials.

Also invited to the prize ceremony were military pressonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, and employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

The Taras Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine is a state award for the most outstanding works of literature and art, journalism, and publicism, which are the pinnacle of the spiritual heritage of the Ukrainian people, affirm high humanistic ideals, enrich the historical memory of the people, their national consciousness and identity, aimed at state-building and democratization of Ukrainian society. This year, the prize amount is UAH 429,000 each.

The Vatican:

Our flag flies with two colors 🇺🇦!
White doesn't belong to us. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/5UgIOzzllP

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 9, 2024

And course, it's again the victim and the defender that suddenly must have 'courage of the white flag of negotiations' — not the aggressor and not the murderer.

Of course, because it's much easier to twist Ukraine's arms from some form of imagined high moral ground and profess…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 9, 2024

And course, it’s again the victim and the defender that suddenly must have ‘courage of the white flag of negotiations’ — not the aggressor and not the murderer.

Of course, because it’s much easier to twist Ukraine’s arms from some form of imagined high moral ground and profess oneself holier-than-thou.

It’s not Russia and Vladimir Putin that must immediately stop the biggest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler that continues for 10 years — it’s Ukraine that must roll over and voluntarily jump into a mass grave with a bullet in the back of its head to ‘make things simpler’.

So evangelic, so spiritually driving, so clairvoyant, so merciful.

We must have courage and allow the enemy to take our children and turn them into soldiers who will kill their own people – said the Pope
– We must have courage and allow the enemy to take away our children and kill their identity – said the Pope@Pontifex

— Volodymyr Demchenko (@brokenpixelua) March 9, 2024

You have to have courage and give up your life. End it. Said The Pope

— Volodymyr Demchenko (@brokenpixelua) March 9, 2024

Papa Francesco has also pissed off Patron!

Nope+ https://t.co/bOIuiyk1n6

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 10, 2024

Good job everybody!

Tatarigami provides a very well thought out and detailed response to why any negotiated agreement with Russia to end the war would not actually end the war.

Every now and then, I converse with people from political and analytical fields globally, particularly from Europe and the US. Eventually, our discussions turn to where the war should end and what should it look like. Some directly express concerns, suggesting that certain…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 9, 2024

Every now and then, I converse with people from political and analytical fields globally, particularly from Europe and the US. Eventually, our discussions turn to where the war should end and what should it look like. Some directly express concerns, suggesting that certain political circles legitimately ponder why Ukraine doesn’t just sign a peace deal with Russia if Russia can’t be defeated. This, of course, aligns with a Russian narrative portraying Russia as an undefeatable dove seeking peace, while Ukraine is depicted as a warmongering state.

Unfortunately, the truth is, even if we sign some sort of truce or peace accord, there would be absolutely no security guarantees to prevent Russia from regrouping and attempting to repeat its actions later. While some Western politicians and former officials publicly state that Ukraine should join NATO soon, these are often just words without substantial backing. Even if they would be backed by an official agreement, the violation of such promises doesn’t carry significant consequences beyond reputational damage.

In 2014, Ukraine was advised not to escalate against Russia in Crimea, leading to further escalation as it created a perception of Ukrainian weakness. Russia then attempted to replicate the scenario in Donbas. Our failure to liberate Donbas and the failure of the West to help only solidified Russian confidence in taking over Ukraine, eventually leading to the events of 2022. So, what exactly would prevent Russia from launching another offensive just a few years later?

I’ve also come across suggestions that if Ukraine were to sign a peace agreement, it would provide an opportunity to rearm and resupply its army. However, this raises another question for me – who and why would precisely arm Ukraine during peacetime, especially when in 2024 Ukraine is already facing challenges in securing foreign military aid? If anything, obtaining military assistance during a time of war for the right to exist seems more feasible than trying to secure the same volumes during peacetime.

Russians don’t just annex territories – they almost immediately erase Ukrainian presence in every dimension. They forcefully russify the local population, imprison, deport, or execute the most prominent pro-Ukrainian activists, leaders, and cultural symbols. They pillage crops, move industrial machinery from factories to Russia, or simply take over businesses and profit from them. While some may find it easy to suggest abandoning these people and signing a peace deal, we all know that after eight years of such policies in Donbas and Crimea, Russia has formed multiple corps and units from these people, later deploying most of their male population to invade Ukraine.

One might say, “Okay, well, good luck then, you can handle it on your own, just without our aid.” I don’t think that we will eventually reach that point, but it’s very naive to think that this would bring an end to the war. After all, Ukraine held its defenses and repelled the Russian invasion during the first months without any substantial Western aid. Now, I understand that the situation has changed since then, and the realities on the battleground are different, but even if the frontline collapses in such events, it won’t result in Ukraine simply giving up – instead, it will lead to guerrilla warfare with assassinations, sabotages, and typical methods associated with guerilla warfare.
Europe would end up with a persistent bleeding spot, populated with millions of angry people who feel unjust, radicalized, marginalized, betrayed, and filled with resentment.

Ukraine isn’t fighting this war out of a desire to fight or to seize someone else’s territory or people. Ukraine is compelled to fight by an invader, and realistically, the only means to halt this war is to restrain Russian imperialistic ambitions in Ukraine and Europe at large. Concessions can’t achieve this goal.

Exhibit A:

Putin says Russia and Ukraine "will be reunited, at least at the spiritual level – it's inevitable," meaning Ukraine can't have an identity distinct from Russia's.

Then he says "nationalism poisons many peoples," which from him sounds like "Cocaine is a hell of a drug" pic.twitter.com/AgW39dL8Po

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 6, 2024

Britain:

UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps has teased confirmation that Iran has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles.

The Defence Secretary all-but confirmed reports of Tehran’s missile shipments in an interview with The House magazine.

“Whether it’s ballistic missiles, or the Shahed drones that they supplied Russia with, we’ve seen that if there’s struggle in the world, often Iran are egging it on, or helping to supply the food chain in this case. They are a bad influence, not just on their region, but in this case in Europe as well,” he said.

Iran officially denied reports last month that it had provided Russia with surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to support Putin’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Iran had supplied around 400 missiles in total to Russia, according to six sources quoted by Reuters. The shipments were said to have included Fateh-110 short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, which is capable of striking targets at a distance of between 186 and 435 miles.

Speaking to The House, Shapps said there was a limit on what he could divulge about the shipments but gave a clear indication that long-range missiles were included. Sources close to the Defence Secretary did not challenge the inference that the Reuters report was correct.

Iran’s defence ministry and the Revolutionary Guards, which oversees Iran’s ballistic missile programme, declined to comment when news of the deal was initially reported.

According to one source quoted by Reuters, the shipments of missiles began in early January following a deal brokered last year between Iranian and Russian military and security officials in Tehran and Moscow.

One Iranian military official said four shipments of missiles had already been sent, with more coming in the new few weeks. Another senior Iranian official said some of the missiles were flown to Russia by plane, and others sent by ship via the Caspian Sea.

“There will be more shipments,” the second Iranian official said to the news agency. “There is no reason to hide it. We are allowed to export weapons to any country that we wish to.”

Washington, DC:

I’ve just spent a week in Ukraine, mainly between Odesa & Kyiv.

There is serious concern about Congress not passing more aid.

People in DC might think delaying aid is a political game, but here in Ukraine it’s a matter of life or death and national survival. 🚨 WAKE UP!! pic.twitter.com/Dd2DMUSi68

— Luke Coffey (@LukeDCoffey) March 9, 2024

Also, Washington DC:

The New York Times has reported that senior US defense and national security officials are unhappy with how Ukraine is defending itself.

More than two years into their wartime alliance, the bond between the United States and Ukraine is showing signs of wear and tear, giving way to mutual frustration and a feeling that the relationship might be stuck in a bit of a rut.

It is the stuff that often strains relationships — finances, different priorities and complaints about not being heard.

For the Pentagon, the exasperation comes down to a single, recurring issue: American military strategists, including Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, believe that Ukraine needs to concentrate its forces on one big fight at a time. Instead, President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has vowed to drive Russia out of every inch of Ukraine, expends his forces in battles for towns that U.S. officials say lack strategic value.

The most recent example involved the battle for the eastern city of Avdiivka, which fell to Russia last month. U.S. officials say Ukraine defended Avdiivka too long and at too great a cost.

For its part, Ukraine is increasingly disheartened that American political paralysis has resulted in shortages of ammunition for troops on the front. As each day goes by without a fresh supply of munitions and artillery, and Ukrainian crews ration the shells they have, morale is suffering.

Mr. Zelensky promised a “renewal” of Ukraine’s military in its stagnant campaign against Russia when he dismissed his commanding general, Valery Zaluzhny, last month and named Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of his ground forces, to replace him.

Gen. Charles Q. Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was on the phone with General Syrsky the next day, as officials in the Biden administration tried to figure out whether they had found an ally in the Ukrainian military for what they see as the most likely route to success.

The jury is still out. Some officials say General Syrsky may be more in sync with Mr. Zelensky than his predecessor.

“Zelensky has made a much more unified chain of command responsive to his leadership as well as advice from outside,” said Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who heads the Armed Services Committee and recently visited Ukraine.

Two other officials, however, worried whether the new military chief would be willing to push his boss in a direction he did not want to go.

Even now, months after a counteroffensive that failed because Ukraine, in the eyes of the Pentagon, did not take its advice, Kyiv is still too often unwilling to listen.

White House and Ukrainian officials both say that the failure of Congress so far to pass an emergency aid bill including $60.1 billion for Ukraine has already undermined the fight on the ground. The measure would rush badly needed artillery ammunition and air defense interceptors to Ukrainian forces.

But the Ukrainians have other frustrations with the United States. They have frequently complained that the Biden administration has been slow to approve advanced weapons systems that could cross perceived Russian red lines, from fighter jets to long-range missiles.

“We’ve been fiddling while Rome burns,” Emily Harding, a former American intelligence official, said during a Ukraine discussion last month at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If we had not been dithering early on,” she added, “if we had actually provided the things that we should have provided, we would have been much better off now.”

In the basement of what used to be a small farmhouse, the shock wave of explosions above ground distinctly changed the air pressure in the cramped, cold room, where a Ukrainian soldier was busily adjusting drone equipment.

“The reasons the Russians can advance is because of the lack of ammunition,” said the soldier, who went by the call sign D.J. in keeping with military protocols. He added that he was frustrated by U.S. inaction, attributing the fall of Avdiivka to the United States’ failure to supply aid.

But a Ukrainian commander, who went by the call sign Chef, was far more forgiving. Had it not been for the United States, Ukrainian forces would still be trying to push the Russians out of Kyiv.

Neither the Americans nor the Ukrainians are heading for exit doors. Their commitment remains solid, as each side needs the other. The U.S. intelligence community still provides a substantial amount of real-time information to Ukraine’s military on Russian command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in Russian military lines. The Pentagon still hosts monthly Contact Group meetings to prod Ukraine’s partners to provide money, weapons and ammunition.

Perhaps most of all for the Biden administration, Ukraine is hollowing out the army of one of America’s biggest foes.

U.S. estimates put the number of Russian troops killed or wounded since the war started at around a staggering 350,000, according to American officials. Russia has also lost huge amounts of equipment; some 2,200 tanks out of 3,500 have been destroyed along with one-third of its armored vehicles, according to a congressional staff member who saw an intelligence assessment.

Even Russia’s victory in Avdiivka has come with considerable cost: A pro-war Russian military blogger said in a post that Russia had lost 16,000 men and 300 armored vehicles in its assault. (The blogger, Andrei Morozov, deleted the post late last month after what he said was a campaign of intimidation against him. He died the next day.)

“At the end of the day, make no mistake: Even those generals who might be frustrated with Ukraine are at the same time looking at the Russian casualties reports and equipment losses and they’re smiling,” said Dale Buckner, a former Army colonel who is the chief executive of Global Guardian, a U.S.-based security firm.

But Avdiivka was the kind of fight that American war planners would have preferred Ukraine to handle differently.

A former American commander with close ties to the Ukrainian armed forces said there was no reason to hold the city as long as Ukrainian forces did except to bleed Russia of more troops and equipment — sacrifices Moscow was more than willing to accept to claim victory.

Even after it became clear that Russian forces, with larger reinforcements, would prevail, Ukraine held out, rather than conduct a strategic withdrawal, U.S. officials said.

As a result, American frustration levels were high with the Ukrainians, especially Mr. Zelensky and the political leadership, according to a senior Western military official and the former U.S. commander. But the Biden administration has said Mr. Zelensky, as commander in chief, makes the call.

Ultimately, Ukraine’s chaotic retreat was a mistake, the former U.S. commander said. Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have disappeared or been captured by the advancing Russian units, according to Western officials.

The disagreement over Avdiivka was a mirror image in reverse of Washington’s frustrations with the Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer. In that case, Mr. Austin and other American officials urged Ukraine to focus its assault on one main effort along the 600-mile front line and press to break through Russian fortifications there.

U.S. officials believed that General Zaluzhny had agreed with the American advice but that he could not convince his president. So instead of a single defining fight, Kyiv split up its troops, sending some to the east and some to other fronts, including in the south.

The counteroffensive failed. At the Pentagon, some officials say they do not consider last summer’s efforts to have been a counteroffensive at all.

“We say in the military, when you seek to attack everywhere, you can end up attacking nowhere — because your forces are spread too thin,” said James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral and the former supreme allied commander for Europe. “The Pentagon sees this as a mistake and will continue to offer advice to the Ukrainians along these lines.”

“The U.S. side is frustrated because they give military advice and it doesn’t feel like it’s being taken,” said Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia who is now the executive director of the McCain Institute. “But the Ukrainians don’t like being micromanaged.”

On top of that, Dr. Farkas said, “our political system is shockingly unreliable right now.”

Pentagon officials are still giving advice on the military campaign they would like to see in 2024. Three U.S. military officials said in interviews that the United States wanted Ukraine to concentrate long-range strikes on “putting Crimea at risk,” a phrase that translates into attacking the Russian “land bridge” that traverses southern Ukraine and connects Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, which President Vladimir V. Putin seized in 2014.

Russian troops use the land bridge for resupply and logistics, and it is critical for their efforts in southern Ukraine and Crimea.

But again, Ukrainian frustration with American congressional paralysis is at play.

Western officials and military experts have warned that without U.S. assistance, a cascading collapse along the front is a real possibility this year.

More at the link.

I will remind everyone that the United States has not won a war, nor been able to achieve its strategic objectives in any military operation below the threshold of interstate war, since World War II.

The US’s strategy toward dealing with Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine has been too timid by more than half. It has also been inconsistent. That strategy is created by the Biden administration. When you combine the strategic timidity and inconsistency with the Republican bad faith in the Senate and the House, we get where we’re at now. A bunch of US senior military and national security leaders who have never won a war or led US forces in achieving American strategic objectives during any military operation below the threshold of interstate war hectoring Ukraine over the latter not fighting their war of defense the way the former would like all while the promises to never abandon the Ukrainians ring every more hollow.

Speaking of strategic timidity, Germany what you got for us?

German ambassador to UK says “Scholz was being careful about how to increase support to Ukraine, so as not to cause "consequences we all don't want to see"…If Germany were to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine it would create "potential for escalation"…’ https://t.co/kUtkCKAebF

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 6, 2024

From the BBC: (emphasis mine)

The German ambassador to the UK has said there is “no need to apologise” for security breaches which led to a call between top army officials being leaked by Russian sources.

Miguel Berger told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme one of the participants had likely dialled in via an insecure line.

As a result, Russia was able to intercept the call, he said.

In the audio, officials can be heard discussing details of alleged British operations on the ground in Ukraine.

Mr Berger hit back at criticism by former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who said Germany was “pretty penetrated by Russian intelligence” and “neither secure nor reliable”.

“It is extremely unhelpful what Ben Wallace has done,” Mr Berger said.

“This is what Russia wants.”

The publication of the call was a Russian “hybrid attack”, he added.

In the leaked recording, four senior German military officers are seemingly heard discussing the prospect of Ukraine using German-made Taurus cruise missiles to hit the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to the Crimean peninsula, which was illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly ruled out sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Mr Berger said Mr Scholz was being careful about how to increase support to Ukraine, so as not to cause “consequences we all don’t want to see”.

If Germany were to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine it would create “potential for escalation”, he said.

The missiles have a range of around 500km (300 miles) – enough to potentially hit Russian territory.

Ambassador Berger said allies’ focus needed to be on supplying enough ammunition to Ukraine.

Kyiv has said it is losing ground to Russian forces in part because of diminishing ammunition supplies.

I’d like to emphasize this part as a best practice:

“I think that is a good lesson for everybody: never use hotel internet if you want to do a secure call,” Mr Berger advised listeners of the Today programme.

Ya think?

The French are rightly concerned:

From French briefings in Munich, though I'm also told they did not rule out the prospect of more serious setbacks.https://t.co/YKFxAzotb3

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 7, 2024

Russia’s information war:

Russia is using social media to wage a war against the West. We're all participants in that war, and we're destroying each other as a result. Forcing Ukraine to capitulate won't stop Moscow⬇️https://t.co/OOHgm3gHv3

— Dr. Ian Garner (@irgarner) March 9, 2024

Dr. Garner writing at Foreign Policy:

A few weeks ago, a Russian autocrat addressed millions of Western citizens in a propaganda event that would have been unthinkable a generation ago—yet is so normal today as to be almost unremarkable. Tucker Carlson’s interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin has now been viewed more than 120 million times on YouTube and X, formerly known as Twitter. Despite the tedium of Putin’s two-hour-long lecture about an imaginary Russian and Ukrainian history, the streaming and promotion of the interview by Western platforms is only the latest successful foray in Russia’s information war against the West, which Moscow is showing every sign of winning. And in this war, the Kremlin is not just weaponizing social media, but relying on Westerners themselves to spread its messages far and wide.

A decade into Russia’s all-out information war, the social media companies seem to have forgotten their promises to act after the 2016 U.S. presidential election interference scandal, when Russian-sponsored posts reached 126 million Americans on Facebook alone. Policymakers not only seem oblivious to the full breadth and scope of Russia’s information war, but fears about stifling freedom of speech and contributing to political polarization have led them and the social media companies to largely refrain from any action to stop Russia’s ongoing campaign.

This inaction comes amid growing signs of Russian influence operations that have deeply penetrated Western politics and society. Dozens—if not hundreds or more—of Russian agents have been observed everywhere from English towns to Canadian universities. Many of these agents are low-level and appear to achieve little individually, but occasionally they penetrate institutions, companies, and governments. Meanwhile, a flood of money props up Moscow’s ambitions, including hundreds of millions of dollars the Kremlin is pouring into influencing elections, with some of that money covertly (and overtly) funneled to political parties and individual politicians. For many decades, Western societies have been deluged with every sort of influence imaginable.

While there have been some countermeasures since the start of Russia’s latest war—including the United States and European Union shutting off access to Russian media networks such as RT and Sputnik in early 2022—these small, ineffective steps are the equivalent of information war virtue signaling. They do not fundamentally change Western governments’ lack of any coherent approach to the many vectors of Russian disinformation and hybrid warfare. At the very moment when Kremlin narratives on social media are beginning to seriously undermine support for Ukraine, Western governments’ handle on the disinformation crisis seems to be getting weaker by the day.

For Putin’s Russia, “information-psychological warfare”—as a Russian military textbook calls it—is intended to “erode the morale and psychological spirit” of an enemy population. A central aspect of a wider war against the West, it is conducted online through relentless barrages of fake, real, and misrepresented news, through a cultivated network of witting and unwitting shills such as Carlson. The Kremlin’s messaging has an extraordinary reach: In the first year of the Ukraine war alone, posts by Kremlin-linked accounts were viewed at least 16 billion times by Westerners. Every one of those views is part of a full-spectrum attack against the West designed not just to undermine support for Ukraine, but to actively damage Western democratic systems.

Moscow launches its attacks using a playbook familiar to anyone who watched the disinformation campaigns linked to the 2014 invasion of Crimea and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Bots, trolls, targeted ad campaigns, fake news organizations, and doppelganger accounts of real Western politicians and pundits spread stories concocted in Moscow—or in St. Petersburg, where then-Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin ran an army of trolls posting on Western social media. If the specific technologies are new, Russia’s strategy of information warfare is not. During World War II, Soviet propagandist Ilya Ehrenburg memorably described the pen as “a weapon made not for anthologies, but for war.” From the early Bolshevik era to the end of the Cold War, his peers spent decades spreading disinformation abroad in hopes that countries targeted by Russia would be unable to “defend … themselves, their family, their community, and their country,” as Soviet journalist turned defector Yuri Bezmenov put it.

What is undoubtedly new is a polarized Western public’s enthusiasm for re-centering its own identity around Moscow’s narratives—and becoming an unwitting weapon in the information war. Take, for example, the QAnon movement, whose supporters have long gathered critical energy from talking points supplied and amplified by Moscow through social media. QAnon supporters espouse a range of grievances familiar from Russian propaganda: anti-LGBTQ+, anti-liberal, and especially anti-Ukraine sentiments. QAnon channels on the messaging app Telegram, for example, rapidly turned into fora for anti-Ukraine and pro-war sentiment.

While ordinary users are certain that they are merely speaking their minds, a domestic policy issue has ultimately turned into a vehicle for Moscow to exert influence over national security decisions. QAnon support has spread from the United States to countries across the West—and each group of adherents, regardless of location and platform, seems to espouse the same pro-Putin sentiments and the same skepticism about providing support for Ukraine.

Such phenomena are all too familiar, whether they relate to the U.S. presidential election influence scandal, to the constant reiteration of Moscow’s talking points about NATO, or to the web of useful idiots—from quasi-journalists to rappers—who seem to function as mouthpieces for the Kremlin by consistently spreading favorable narratives under the guise of asking questions or presenting two sides of a story.

Moscow also exploits non-Western networks, such as Telegram and TikTok, to its own advantage. Today, 14 percent of adult Americans regularly consume news from Chinese-owned TikTok, where thousands of fake accounts spread Russian talking points—and where Russian propagandists can count hundreds of thousands of followers. TikTok has occasionally revealed Russian bot networks, but its efforts to stop the spread of Kremlin-aligned content have been lackluster and ineffective. Millions of Americans hoover up material created by Moscow’s propagandists, bonding with influencers and other users who also share this material, constantly propagating Moscow’s viewpoint on Ukraine. TikTok’s unwillingness to cooperate on countering such disinformation has left U.S. lawmakers with little choice but to mull an outright ban of the network—and even then, that would largely be over China-related concerns, not because lawmakers recognize the crucial role TikTok plays for the Kremlin.

Even where they ostensibly have more control, U.S. policymakers have been unwilling to do much to stem the tide of pro-Russian propaganda. Since Elon Musk took over Twitter and renamed it X, the network has all but openly welcomed Russian influence campaigns onto its servers. The platform even hosts Kremlin-aligned neo-fascists such as Alexander Dugin, who uses it to spread his apocalyptic vision of the war in Ukraine to his 180,000 followers, including via discussion spaces in English. Hundreds of accounts—many belonging to ordinary Westerners—boost Dugin’s reach (and that of similar figures) by following him as well as liking or commenting on posts. X’s streaming and promotion of the Carlson interview and Musk’s own echoing of Russian talking points—such as highly specific claims about Ukraine using phrasing normally employed only by Russian officials—have come in for heavy criticism. But just as damaging are the smaller communities created around figures such as Dugin, where Western users do much to spread an anti-Ukraine message.

If anything, there are signs that governments are taking Russia’s influence campaigns less seriously today than in the past. The British government first stymied the release of a damning report on Russian interference in British politics—and once the report was released, it did little to act on the findings. In Washington, the Biden administration is scaling back its efforts to head off Russian disinformation. Flummoxed by a barrage of criticism reflecting freedom of speech concerns, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security shuttered its Disinformation Governance Board in August 2022, even as Americans were being barraged by an unprecedented wave of pro-war and anti-Ukraine propaganda on social media. Since then, the U.S. State Department’s parsimonious funding has chiefly gone to small-scale nongovernmental organizations offering fact-checking and disinformation tracking services—a drop in the bucket at best.

When Western governments do address foreign hybrid threats, such as cybersecurity and election interference, they are increasingly focused on China. And invariably, they still identify such threats merely as “influence” or “interference,” rather than as part of a larger, concerted military effort. Their responses thus mistakenly circumscribe Russia’s hybrid warfare as a discrete, restricted, and targeted policy of disruption. In reality, it is an ongoing, fluid, and broad phenomenon that invites continued violence.

There is much, much more at the link!

Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia:

Interesting details about the UAVs that attacked Taganrog in the Russian part of the special military operation zone last night. Appear to be similar to Shaheds. Difficult to intercept. pic.twitter.com/gNfft5Y0s3

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 9, 2024

/1. At night there was a drone attack on Taganrog, Russia. The attack was most likely carried out on an airport/factory where a Russian A-50 had previously been spotted. A-50 was spotted on the satellite imagery published by @cxemu and appeared on the airfield between 28-29th of… pic.twitter.com/YN1ZlpMiqW

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 9, 2024

/3. The Taganrog is located 140km from the frontline. Well in range of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. But as we see, for well-known reasons, the Russians feel quite comfortable to place such important and limiting equipment as the A-50 there. pic.twitter.com/8OB4e7Isyq

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 9, 2024

/5. The damaged area is located closer to the hangars gates.
Plus some photos of how the targeted hangar looks like. pic.twitter.com/TnhxfbMb0a

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 9, 2024

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have a new assessment for us to ponder. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

The Frontelligence Insight conducted a visual analysis of satellite imagery to assess the impact of a Ukrainian UAV attack on an aircraft repair facility in Taganrog, The imagery indeed validates the damage sustained by the facility.

Don't forget to like and share!

🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/JEcA4wAN1y

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 9, 2024

2/ A comparative analysis shows scorch marks on the roof of a building identified by our team as a Final Assembly Facility, where it was suspected Russians were conducting A-50 repairs. The day before the attack:

3/ Notably, the A-50 is absent in the imagery from March 8th and March 9th, leaving uncertainty about its presence in the airfield during the operation. Earlier images, disclosed by investigative journalists at @cxemu, showed an A-50 parked near the hangar on February 29th.

4/ If the drones managed to penetrate the roof, the payload in drones would be enough to cause damage to equipment, and aircraft inside. However, there are no visual indications of a significant fire inside the hangar, making it challenging to assess the extent of the damage 

5/ Further satellite imagery analysis shows that at least one S-300/400 battery was present at the airfield during the attack. Unless it serves as a decoy, this suggests the Ukrainian UAV’s ability to penetrate Russian air defense systems, even in proximity to strategic objects

6/ In summary, our team recognizes that the destruction or damage of the A-50 can’t be definitively concluded from this. Nonetheless, this remains a significant achievement for Ukraine due to the ability to bypass AD and target an important facility within Russian territory. 

7/ Consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support. As the war continues, public financial support is decreasing as well.

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

Goryachy Klyuch, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

They're going to put up a monument to Prigozhin and Utkin. They still remember them fondly.

But do they remember who killed them? pic.twitter.com/K1kmMnDbES

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 9, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Got a new friend @gilesduley 👅 https://t.co/dfRQC78Cwb

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 8, 2024

Open thread!

Ukraine destroyed one-third of the Russian Black Sea fleet without a navy. Just imagine what will happen when new ships are completed! pic.twitter.com/zsqg8TuWus

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 8, 2024

President Zelenskyy did visit the shipyards building new corvettes for the Ukrainian Navy.

During his working visit to the Republic of Türkiye, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited shipyards where corvettes for the Ukrainian Naval Forces are being built in accordance with the Strategy for the Development of the Naval Forces of Ukraine’s Armed Forces until 2036.

The Head of State inspected the readiness level and equipment of the Ivan Mazepa corvette, its technical characteristics, and capabilities. This anti-submarine corvette of the Ada class is intended to become the future flagship of the Ukrainian Navy.

On board the ship, the President met and spoke to the Ukrainian Navy personnel undergoing training how to operate and maintain the vessel’s systems. Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked them for their service.

“Thank you for your service, for the fact that Ukraine is highly respected here. You know that we are expecting you in Ukraine. So that our Security and Defense Forces become even stronger,” said the Head of State.

The President awarded two military personnel with the medals “To the Defender of the Motherland,” recognizing their selfless actions in defending Ukraine’s state sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as exemplary performance of military duty.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy also studied the progress of the construction of the Ada class corvette, which today was named after Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi by the President’s decree, and which is also intended to strengthen our naval fleet.

The head of the Ukrainian state expressed gratitude to all involved in building such warships.

“I am extremely grateful for the partnership to President Erdoğan of Türkiye and to all defense companies of Türkiye and Ukraine, for working together to bring peace for Ukraine closer,” he said.

Ada class corvettes are modern coastal zone ships capable of anti-submarine operations and open sea patrolling, with a wide use of stealth technology principles in their design. The design and combat application concept of Ada class corvettes is similar to the concept of littoral combat ships of the Freedom class developed by Lockheed Martin for the U.S. Navy. Ada class corvettes have more powerful armament, radar, and sonar systems.

Construction of the Ivan Mazepa corvette began in April 2021. In September 2023, a solemn keel-laying ceremony took place. It was planned that the corvette would be transferred to Ukraine in 2022, and by 2024, it would have entered service with the Ukrainian Navy. However, due to the war initiated by Russia against Ukraine, the transfer of the corvette was postponed.

The cost:

Maria ‘Herda’ Chech, a former POW from Azov, shared this photo. She's the sole survivor among these women, embodying the strength of Ukrainian women in the face of Russian atrocities. Stand with Ukraine, support its courageous women.#SupportUkrainianWomen#InternationalWomenDay pic.twitter.com/8LFNDNoe8z

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 8, 2024

“Every morning there is decreased love in Ukraine because Russia kills people every night.”

That my four year old even has such a thought in his head is devastating beyond words.

It is indeed heartbreaking that misery and pain have replaced peaceful life of an entire nation.

— ArianaGic/Аріянॳць (@GicAriana) March 8, 2024

The reason:

Consider unlocking exclusive translations by signing up for our Patreon!https://t.co/YPMwzhMzTu

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 8, 2024

Luxembourg:

Luxembourg joins the Czech 🇨🇿artillery ammunition initiative in support of @DefenceU 🇺🇦

This will be part of our overall effort to provide much needed capabilities to Ukraine in their fight against the Russian aggressor.

🇱🇺🫡🇺🇦#StandWithUkraine@Yuriko_Backes pic.twitter.com/jEAzxQTppu

— Direction de la défense (@Defense_lu) March 7, 2024

Britain:

Thank you, Minister @grantshapps!

We are grateful to the UK and all British people for their solidarity with Ukraine, as well as all the support and military assistance.

Together, we will be victorious in restoring justice. https://t.co/SkQther1Tw

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 8, 2024

France:

French defence companies will repair and manufacture military equipment locally in Ukraine as Paris seeks to rally western allies to do more to help local forces to push back the Russian full-scale invasion. @labboudles @patricianilsson https://t.co/x3725pr0Ka

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 8, 2024

Here are the details from The Financial Times:

French defence companies will repair and manufacture military equipment locally in Ukraine as Paris seeks to rally western allies to do more to help local forces to push back the Russian full-scale invasion.

“We are not at the maximum level of what we can do in Ukraine,” said defence minister Sébastien Lecornu in an interview on French radio RMC.

“Three French companies will be setting up partnerships with Ukrainian companies, in particular in the drone and land equipment sectors, to produce spare parts on Ukrainian soil, and perhaps ammunition in the future”, he said, adding that the first production could begin by this summer.

The companies involved are KNDS, a joint-venture of France’s state-owned Nexter and Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann that makes munitions, the Caesar howitzer, and combat vehicles; Arquus, a military vehicle maker and supplier of chassis; and drone maker Delair.

Lecornu also announced that France had ordered 200 surface-to-air Aster missiles from European manufacturer MBDA, and that some could be sent to Ukraine.

The French move is part of a broader push among European defence companies to start shifting some production, repair or maintenance functions into Ukraine as the war drags on into a third year and shortages of ammunition hamper Ukrainian soldiers’ ability to fight. In September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hosted a conference in Kyiv in a bid to attract companies, and several of them have been holding discussions with local partners since then.

Düsseldorf-based Rheinmetall, which has seen demand soar for its 155mm artillery shells that are standard in western howitzers, plans to manufacture both munitions and later tanks in Ukraine together with Kyiv-owned defence contractors.

At the Munich Security Conference in February, chief executive Armin Papperger said the company aimed eventually to produce a six-digit number of 155mm-calibre shells per year in Ukraine with a local joint venture partner, without specifying the timing.

The company’s joint venture with Kyiv-owned Ukroboronprom has already begun to repair military vehicles locally — both Leopards and Panthers donated by the west as well as old Soviet models — returned from the front line.

Czechoslovak Group, which makes ammunition and other military equipment, is also looking to sign some production joint venture agreements in Ukraine.

BAE Systems said in September that it was exploring options to work with local partners in Ukraine to produce spare parts for its light artillery.

Sending civilian workers from western defence companies to Ukraine could also carry some risk.

Arquus already has sent staff to Ukraine to repair and maintain the roughly 250 armoured personnel carriers that France has donated to Ukraine, and train Ukrainians to carry out those functions. It is also working on a plan to produce replacement parts locally.

“The framework contract was signed with a Ukrainian partner about 10 days ago, so we are entering into the operational phase,” said Arquus.

Nexter, the French part of KNDS, said it had been in discussions to find a local partner since September to “bring maintenance and eventually production” closer to the front lines.

A person close to the company said it would “take a few weeks to figure out what is doable” and added that the French government has asked them to support Ukraine locally. “There’s a symbolic aspect to it, but it also has to be competitive,” the person said, adding that KNDS already had operations nearby in Lithuania and Romania.

More at the link.

Russian occupied Crimea:

On 8 March 2014, thousands of women came out across Crimea to protest the illegal occupation of the peninsula by Russian armed formations.

They visited the Ukrainian military blocked by occupiers in their military bases. pic.twitter.com/KO7AU1TJ3P

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 8, 2024

Robotyne:

Fighters of the 3rd Assault Detachment of the "OMEGA" Special Purpose Center repel the enemy tank and infantry attack in Robotyne using AT-4 and MK-19 grenade launcher.

Fierce battles are taking place in the Robotyne area, the Defense Forces of Ukraine are inflicting huge losses… pic.twitter.com/xKNnHdTlTB

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 8, 2024

Fighters of the 3rd Assault Detachment of the “OMEGA” Special Purpose Center repel the enemy tank and infantry attack in Robotyne using AT-4 and MK-19 grenade launcher.

Fierce battles are taking place in the Robotyne area, the Defense Forces of Ukraine are inflicting huge losses on the enemy.

Part of the enemy’s equipment was blown up by mines, the other part was destroyed by FPV drones of the special forces.

Avdiivka front:

Russian BMP-2 takes part in a turret throwing competition. Video by the 47th Brigade of Ukraine. Avdiivka front. https://t.co/z3wuWGoQeF pic.twitter.com/eVWfjsKUiG

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 8, 2024

Three abandoned Chinese Desertcross 1000-3 on the Avdiivka front. Recently, Russians are increasingly using those to transport infantry to the front line during attack attempts. https://t.co/Amt5bzNqB9

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 8, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Patron has a special International Women’s Day message:

And here’s a lick to all women here 👅 Love you! Thanks to those who were fighting hard for your rights and who will continue ❤️ #International_Womens_Day #WomenRights pic.twitter.com/X8fLEgcq35

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 8, 2024

Open thread!

At a time of Russian aggression, everyone sees how important it is to maintain alliances, to strengthen our own security and to take care of the security of neighbors – address by the President of Ukraine

7 March 2024 – 20:01

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A few summaries of the day.

I held a meeting with the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service to discuss current threats and some sensitive areas of our international activities. I am grateful to everyone in the world who helps Ukraine with the proper focus of our country’s attention.

We also continue to work with our partners – I had a meeting with the UK Secretary of State for Defenсe, who was on a visit to Ukraine today. I thanked him for the UK’s tangible leadership in security support for Ukraine, in strengthening our defense and the world’s joint capabilities to defend against Russian aggression. Today we discussed our further cooperation. The priorities are obvious – air defense, long-range weapons, artillery. Supply and joint production. And achieving justice, so that every Russian murderer and their entire terrorist state are held accountable for this war. We have already reached a historically unprecedented level of cooperation with Britain. By the way, it was with Britain that we signed the first bilateral agreement on security commitments. We must fully implement it for the sake of our common strength.

Today, I also approved the candidate for the position of our country’s ambassador to the UK. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi told me that this is the direction he would like to take – diplomacy. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has sent a corresponding request for agrément. Our alliance with Britain should only get stronger.

And today there are several decrees worth mentioning. I have signed two decrees on awarding state decorations to our warriors – 520 more servicemen of the Armed Forces. Each and every one of them deserves our gratitude and respect. And today there is also a decree to discharge conscripts – those who were called up for military service before the start of the full-scale invasion. Now, at the request of the military command, a few weeks are needed for preparatory procedures – for replacing people in terms of defense tasks, and from April, the conscripts will be sent to the reserve. I know that some of them have signed a contract to serve in the Defense Forces. I am grateful to everyone.

And a few more things for today.

I had the honor to hand over apartment certificates to the Heroes of Ukraine and the families of the fallen Heroes. This is our new tradition of specially honoring every warrior whose bravery has become a paragon.

I would like to thank all our people in the regions bordering Russia – Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv. Everyone who protects these regions from subversive groups and enemy shelling, who saves people. This is extremely important and we appreciate it. Each and every one of you who is doing everything to preserve normal life. Today, Russia launched another attack on Sumy. There are wounded. Unfortunately, there are dead. My condolences to all those who have lost their loved ones. The Russian state will definitely be held accountable for this evil. Our warriors will ensure accountability of the terrorists.

Today, it is important to note that one more country in Europe has achieved greater protection from Russian evil. The procedures for Sweden’s accession to NATO are being finalized.

When the security of one country is guaranteed and when that country is able to truly strengthen common security, everyone wins. This rule has worked consistently throughout NATO’s existence. And I believe it will work in the future.

Now, at a time of Russian aggression against everything that has made Europe peaceful and united, everyone sees how important it is to maintain alliances and partnerships, to strengthen our own security and to take care of the security of neighbors.

Sweden is a strong ally and a country that can be trusted. And I congratulate everyone in Sweden and everyone in the Euro-Atlantic area. Ukraine has always supported Sweden in its pursuit of NATO membership, and I thank Sweden for its support of our country – there will be a day when Sweden will be able to congratulate Ukraine on joining the Alliance as well. Together, we are always stronger.

I thank everyone who is in Ukraine and with Ukraine! Glory to all those who fight and work for the sake of our country and people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Well this is interesting:

News: President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved the candidacy of Valery Zaluzhny, former top army general dismissed in February, for the position of Ambassador of Ukraine to Great Britain, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announced. pic.twitter.com/IPkfJr2071

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 7, 2024

The cost:

One year.
We’ll be at Da Vinci’s tomb tonight. pic.twitter.com/c0HcUmEjDe

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 7, 2024

And of course, Andriy @_juicefighter_
We remember you, too, and never miss a chance to come over and say hi. pic.twitter.com/qkgkYJ9S6c

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 7, 2024

The reason:

Volunteers from different countries around the world have united to defend the values of liberty and fight against russian aggression.

Today, March 7, is the anniversary of the creation of the International Legion of the @DI_Ukraine. Thank you for your service. pic.twitter.com/i6FnGbvOhg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 7, 2024

A dose of reality from Tatarigami:

Given the re-emergence of discussions about a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2024, and even specific dates named, it would be wise to avoid these speculations, particularly by officials, considering both frontline realities and past experiences with inflated…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 7, 2024

Given the re-emergence of discussions about a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2024, and even specific dates named, it would be wise to avoid these speculations, particularly by officials, considering both frontline realities and past experiences with inflated expectations.

In my assessment, any realistic counter-attacks should be opportunistic, responding to enemy mistakes or rare openings, which might or might not arise this year, much like the Kharkiv 2022 counter-offensive. Announcing such moves in advance would be highly counterproductive.

While the enemy may be losing offensive momentum, it is very important to understand that Ukraine cannot afford to incur losses comparable to those suffered by Russia – 16 thousand men and over 300 vehicles, as highlighted by the deceased Russian milblogger Morozov, only to liberate a settlement like Avdiivka.

In this asymmetrical situation, where the enemy has more men, vehicles, ammo, and better-fortified positions, a head-to-head and entirely symmetrical approach is unlikely to succeed.

 

⚡️US Treasury Secretary: Congressional inaction on Ukraine aid is 'gift' to Putin.

"As the House continues to stall, Russia is gaining ground and Ukraine is being forced to ration ammunition and supplies," U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said.https://t.co/LVz9gz2pMb

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 7, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

The ongoing impasse on U.S. aid for Ukraine is “nothing short of a gift to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin” and other American adversaries, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on March 7.

Aid for Ukraine and other U.S. allies have been stalled in Congress for months, largely over unrelated domestic political disputes.

The U.S. Senate passed a foreign aid bill on Feb. 13 containing $61 billion in funding for Ukraine, but House Speaker Mike Johnson has yet to put it to a vote in the House, despite pressure from the Senate and the White House.

“As the House continues to stall, Russia is gaining ground and Ukraine is being forced to ration ammunition and supplies,” Yellen said ahead of a bilateral meeting in Washington with German Economy Minister Robert Habeck.

“The House must act and show the strength of the U.S support for Ukraine in the face of Putin’s aggression,” she added.

Yellen’s comments echo those from other U.S. officials, who have argued that the impasse in Congress contributed to Ukraine’s loss of the key front-line city of Avdiivka.

U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said earlier in March that Putin is taking advantage of delays in U.S. aid to Ukraine to further Russian military efforts.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer warned during his visit to Lviv in February that Ukraine is at risk of losing the war without American aid, urging Johnson to put the bill to a vote.

According to internal U.S. estimates in February, Ukraine’s ammunition shortage, exacerbated by the delay in U.S. aid, “could effectively turn the tide of the war and lend Putin a significant advantage.”

Ya think?

“It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.” https://t.co/6cpF666tfE

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) March 6, 2024

Dynuz has the details.

he fighting had become increasingly ferocious last month at the Zenith air-defense base a mile south of Avdiivka, where for years a company of Ukrainian soldiers had defended the southern approaches to the city.

Russian troops had moved up on their flanks and were pounding them from all sides with tank, artillery and mortar fire, smashing their defenses and wounding men.

“Every day we tried to repel enemy attacks,” said Senior Soldier Viktor Biliak, a 26-year-old with the 110th Mechanized Brigade, who had spent 620 days defending the base. “All the fortifications were being destroyed and there was no possibility to build new ones.”

Soldiers interviewed after their retreat described an uneven four-month battle under a relentless onslaught of Russian artillery and glide bombs that destroyed buildings and broke through deep concrete bunkers. As the Ukrainians took casualties they became increasingly outnumbered by the Russians assaulting the city, who broke through at two strategic points and quickly seeded areas with fighters.

The fall of the city, when it came in mid-February, was brutal and fast, occurring in less than a week.

For two weeks, as soldiers warned they could be overrun by Russian forces, commanders told them to keep holding their positions, a delay that cost lives, Soldier Biliak said. Some units were crumbling under Russian fire. One company pulled back to the Zenith base after losing its positions.

The final retreat was dangerous and costly, as Russian artillery fired constantly on the roads leading out of the city. Many soldiers died along the way.

The biggest losses came in the center of the city from the heavy Russian aerial bombardment, said Shaman, 36, a commander of the 25th Separate Battalion, who was monitoring his units from a command post. Some brigades lost contact with units under the bombing. A group retreated to a house and were killed when a glide bomb hit it, said Shaman, who like others interviewed identified himself by his call sign for security reasons.

The capture of Avdiivka was the Russians’ most significant gain in nine months and a blow to Ukrainian forces struggling with shortages of ammunition and men.

As they regrouped in the villages and training grounds after their retreat from Avdiivka, Ukrainian soldiers expressed no doubt why they lost the city, a holdout on the eastern front that had been a target of Russian assaults for 10 years.

“It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”

With sufficient artillery Ukrainian troops could have held the city, he said, by hitting Russian supplies and logistics behind lines, and preventing reinforcements from coming in.

More at the link.

France:

So Macron isn't just putting Russia on notice; he's putting the pro-Russia elements in French politics on notice, too. Impressive. https://t.co/crGIzIFdjx

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) March 7, 2024

Here’s the rest of Rahman’s thread from the Thread Reader App:

Macron today produced maps of a poss Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv or Odessa which could oblige the west to act to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. In talks w French opposition leaders, Macron said there should be no more “red lines” on Fr involvement in the conflict 1/ 

.@EmmanuelMacron summoned leaders of all French parliamentary parties to talks at the Elysée Palace to explain his controversial remarks last week in which he said the deployment of western troops in Ukraine should no longer be excluded 2/ 

Participants in the meeting said Macron had explained his theory of “strategic ambivalence” – keeping Moscow guessing. Since Vladimir Putin clearly knew no limits, he said, the West had been handing him an advantage by fixing or “interiorising” limits of its own /3 

But Opposition leaders of the Far Right, Right and Left said they had been left worried and unconvinced by Macron’s approach (which has also been rejected by the US, UK, Germany and several other Nato countries) /4 

Jordan Bardella, the president and de facto Number Two of Marine Le Pen’s @MLP_officiel far right Rassemblement National, said threatening to send French soldiers “to fight a Nuclear power like Russia  is irresponsible and  extremely dangerous for world peace” /5 

The Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel said that he feared that Macron was “ready to engage in a bellicose escalation which would be very dangerous” /6 

Today’s meeting was the prelude to a two day parliamentary debate next week to discuss a ten year defence pact signed by Macron and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr @ZelenskyyUa last month 7/ 

Macron told French journalists on Wednesday that he hoped this debate would “make it clear” which political forces in France supported Ukraine and which supported Russia 8/ 

Elysée officials deny domestic politics & June EU elex have influenced Macron’s new rhetoric on Ukraine. They say he is driven by the difficult situation on front line, Navalny’s murder & Kremlin talk of a possible attempt on his own life when he visits Kyiv later this month 9/ 

Macron is, however, evidently hoping the new rhetoric will embarrass Le Pen, who had a long history of Putin worship before the Ukr invasion. The Govt spokeswoman, Prisca Thevenot, says it is “quite evident” that Le Pen, unlike Macron, is not “committed to Russia’s defeat” ENDS 

Macron has found his spine. That’s a good thing if he can walk and not just talk.

Germany:

The BND mole story gets crazier. Putin's personal bodyguard, Alexander Kurenkov (seen below, baldie behind VVP), was evidently the liaison between Carsten Linke and Arthur E., the "adventurer" diamond merchant — both Russian agents. https://t.co/DOyGjy4RXQ pic.twitter.com/80eZ2xXWW0

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) March 7, 2024

BND needs a thorough housecleaning. Same shop said Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine then Ukraine would lose; that Zelimkhan Khangoshvili was an "Islamist" offed by jihadis or gangsters; etc. etc.

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) March 7, 2024

Since Weiss didn’t thread these right, here’s the last two tweets:

(FYI: Kurenkov was part of the FSO, Putin’s praetorian guard, until 2022; now he’s the Russian Minister for Emergency Situations.)

Should have been clearer above: Kurenkov was the liaison to the FSB. The cut-out used was Visa Mizayev, a Russian businessman, who first met Arthur. E. and mentioned his Russian minister contact.

Moldova:

"Fears have grown among Moldovans, the West and analysts that the #Kremlin is stepping up its efforts to destabilize #Moldova…" https://t.co/x6YlrlLwVW

— Giorgio Cafiero (@GiorgioCafiero) March 7, 2024

Politico Europe has the details.

CHIȘINĂU, Moldova — Moldova is feeling the heat from Russia, but it has a message for Moscow: know your limits.

Increasingly belligerent security threats from Moscow and hints that it could annex the Kremlin-backed breakaway region of Transnistria are chilling but they are out of touch with the reality of Russia’s current military capabilities, Chișinău’s top diplomat told POLITICO.

Foreign Minister Mihail Popșoi said that Russia’s military power has waned “thanks to the sacrifice of the brave Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian army,” in one of his first interviews with international media since taking office a month ago.

“We are safe, although safe could be a strong word given the front lines are just 200 kilometers away,” he said.

Fears have grown among Moldovans, the West and analysts that the Kremlin is stepping up its efforts to destabilize Moldova after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week accused Chișinău’s government of “following in the footsteps of the Kyiv regime” by “canceling everything Russian” and “discriminating against the Russian language.” A significant proportion of Moldova speaks Russian as a native language, and it is widely used across society without restrictions — a situation Popșoi reiterated the government has no intention of changing.

“Lavrov, the perception is, doesn’t speak for the siloviki,” he said, referring to Russia’s bellicose security and military elites who call the shots when it comes to staging provocations. “We know the situation on the ground, and most likely he knows the situation on the ground — he just has to play his role.”

The veteran Russian envoy also sought to inflame tensions over Transnistria, a breakaway region inside Moldova’s borders along the frontier with Ukraine, where Russia has stationed a contingent of troops and exerts control over the separatist administration. Last week, while stopping short of requesting annexation by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Transnistria’s leaders called on Moscow to “protect it against the pressure of Moldova.”

“Our intelligence services, Ukraine’s intelligence services, are clear that there is no premise for that,” Popșoi said. “They are showing us evidence that the situation on the front line, because Ukraine is so determined in defending its territory, makes it unlikely — although not impossible. The probability that the Russians would be able to advance and reach our territory is much lower now than it was two years ago.”

Instead, Popșoi continued, the threats are more likely part of “a psychological operation” designed to divide Moldovans and undermine the country’s negotiations to become part of the EU.

More at the link.

Norway:

Good news from our Norwegian friends 🇺🇦🤝🇳🇴

Norway will provide €140 million to procure artillery shells for Ukraine within the Czech initiative.

Also, Norway joined the Air Defense Coalition. That's an important step towards strengthening Ukraine's capabilities, as Norwegian… pic.twitter.com/fYnMBOqtMM

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 7, 2024

Good news from our Norwegian friends 🇺🇦🤝🇳🇴

Norway will provide €140 million to procure artillery shells for Ukraine within the Czech initiative.

Also, Norway joined the Air Defense Coalition. That’s an important step towards strengthening Ukraine’s capabilities, as Norwegian NASAMS have already proven their effectiveness in protecting Ukrainian cities.

We are grateful to Norway for their unwavering support. We stand united on our way to Victory.
@Forsvarsdep @Bjornarildgram

Only had to go through 5 countries to get to some good news!

Britain:

Together with @CinC_AFU Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, met with my British counterpart Grant Shapps @grantshapps and Chief of the Defence Staff of the United Kingdom Admiral Sir Tony Radakin @AdmTonyRadakin_.

Discussed priority needs of Ukraine’s defence forces.
Grateful to… pic.twitter.com/VdBq4QXNTl

— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) March 7, 2024

Together with @CinC_AFU Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, met with my British counterpart Grant Shapps @grantshapps and Chief of the Defence Staff of the United Kingdom Admiral Sir Tony Radakin
@AdmTonyRadakin_.

Discussed priority needs of Ukraine’s defence forces.
Grateful to 🇬🇧 for the decision to increase drone funding for Ukraine by over $150 mln and delivering of more than 10,000 drones to the #UAArmy.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi provided an update on the situation on the frontlines and the enemy’s recent activity.

Expressed gratitude for the UK’s comprehensive support, particularly for providing Storm Shadow missiles that truly make change on the battlefield.

The UK is continuously persuading the free world to do what’s right. Together, we are proving that democracy can win against autocracy.

Sweden:

🇸🇪 Sweden became NATO’s newest member upon depositing its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty in Washington DC.

With Sweden’s accession, NATO now counts 32 countries among its members

— NATO (@NATO) March 7, 2024

And the best of the good news for last!

The necessary amount for the purchase of 800,000 pieces of artillery ammunition for Ukraine from countries outside the European Union has been collected. Czech President Petr Pavel told journalists today during his visit to the Central Bohemian Region. Another 18 countries will… pic.twitter.com/wX1XhMrBha

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 7, 2024

The necessary amount for the purchase of 800,000 pieces of artillery ammunition for Ukraine from countries outside the European Union has been collected. Czech President Petr Pavel told journalists today during his visit to the Central Bohemian Region. Another 18 countries will participate in the assistance initiated by the Czech Republic. The ammunition should be in Ukraine in the coming weeks.
https://ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/pavel-castka-na-nakup-munice-pro-ukrajinu-je-shromazdena/2489100

From Ceske Noviny: (machine translated into English)

Kersko – The amount needed to buy 800,000 artillery ammunition for Ukraine from outside the European Union was collected. President Petr Pavel told reporters today when visiting the Central Bohemian Region. Another 18 states will be involved in the assistance initiated by the Czechia. Ammunition should be in Ukraine in the coming weeks, said Pavel. Prime Minister Petr Fiala (ODS) appreciated the ability to cooperate with partners in providing assistance to the country under attack by Russia. He assured that hundreds of thousands of rounds would be delivered this year. However, according to national security adviser Tomáš Pojar, the total costs are not covered and the president apparently thought only of the first delivery, he said Diary N.

“This morning we have collected the total amount for the purchase of all ammunition, ie the 800,000 pieces,” the president announced today. According to him, the next step is to be taken by the Czech government, which will conclude a memorandum and set up mutual relations. “The Czech side will then be followed by information on all those contributing states about the timetable and how we will proceed,” said President Pavel.

According to Prime Minister Fiala, Ukraine now needs more support than ever. “I am glad that we are able to work with so many partners around the world to provide the necessary help. I can guarantee that hundreds of thousands of rounds will be delivered this year, “the Prime Minister told ČTK today.

However, National Security Adviser Pojar questions that he would be able to withdraw the money needed to buy all the ammunition. “I assume that the President meant covering the first batch, not our entire initiative, we have by no means covered here yet,” said Deník N Pojar, who coordinates the initiative.

According to Defense Minister Jana Černochová (ODS), the speed with which the necessary money can be obtained is great. “The initiative continues, we are constantly looking for other ways to get Western and Eastern provenance ammunition. It is necessary to use the potential of this broad coalition, “she said. She pointed out that the Czechia was one of the first countries to supply Ukraine with rocket launchers, tanks, howitzers or attack helicopters. “At a time when other countries were still hesitant about Russia’s response. When it turned out that Europe’s efforts to deliver the promised ammunition would not be fulfilled, we were the first to come up with an ammunition initiative and once again stood at the forefront of helping Ukraine as leaders, “added Černochová.

“Defending sovereign Ukraine is in Europe’s security, as Russian imperialism will not stop in Ukraine. Czech diplomacy is doing everything to ensure the security of Czech citizens, “said Daniel Drake, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a statement to ČTK.

President Pavel informed about the possibility of purchasing artillery shells for Ukrainians in third countries at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February this year. He said the Czechia had located 500,000 artillery ammunition in standard NATO caliber and another 300,000 pieces in Soviet caliber in non-EU states. The British Financial Times wrote that the purchase should cost $ 1.5 billion (about $ 35 billion). The Agency reported today that the amount was collected Bloomberg with reference to its unnamed resources.

Pavel did not want to mention the amounts from individual states today. “It probably wouldn’t be fair to those states that contributed if we didn’t discuss it with them,” he said. According to him, Norway promised the necessary amount today. “Now it will only be on the dexterity of our companies and the Ministry of Defense, how we will be able to speed up the whole process,” added Pavel.

Kharkiv:

Border guards from the "Steel Border" Brigade destroyed the russian MT-12 Rapira 100-mm gun with an FPV drone in the Kharkiv direction.

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/goashabJjo

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 7, 2024

Novomykhailivka:

The enemy continues to burn in Ukraine 🔥
Ukrainian warriors repelled the russian attack on Novomykhailivka and destroyed 12 armored vehicles, including 4 tanks.

📹: 79th Air Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/4OPWla8mBS

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 7, 2024

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Strike reported on Russian positions in the area of Chaplynka airfield, Kherson region. pic.twitter.com/TTO4sLEuj9

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 7, 2024

Moscow:

The threat is credible enough that German embassy and consulate staffs aren't coming to work tomorrow.

Pretty clear that Putin's about to do a pre-"election" false flag, blame on West, use it to mobilize 500k to send into Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/kzKYJHFSm9

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) March 7, 2024

Cherepovets, Russia:

This morning, 7th of March 2024, 5:40 local time. There was a reported drone attack on the Severstal plant (Steel industry company) in Cherepovets, Russia. 800km from Ukraine border. The drone hit the place where the blast furnace is located. pic.twitter.com/OuNI5b0XBm

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 7, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Proud to serve Ukraine with our brave sappers of @SESU_UA pic.twitter.com/dD9p9zjo49

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 7, 2024

Open thread!

Weapons and air defense are needed here to save lives – address by the President of Ukraine

6 March 2024 – 18:09

Dear Ukrainians!

We’re in Odesa today. There was a meeting with the Prime Minister of Greece. Together we honored the memory of those killed by the Russian “Shahed” strike on March 2. Children, adults… Farewell ceremonies have been held these days. Eternal memory to all the victims of Russian terror!

Of course, the main issue in the talks with the Prime Minister of Greece was our defense, our capabilities in active operations and defense. Air defense is an absolute priority. Just like in negotiations with other partners. The world has enough air defense systems and capabilities to produce weapons for defense. Weapons are needed here to save lives. Decisions are needed now – not someday, but for the people who endure terrorist attacks every day and night. Last night alone, and against Odesa alone, twenty “Shaheds” were launched. This morning there was another missile attack against the city. There are wounded, there are dead… More protection is needed. Today I spoke with Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis about how we can strengthen our people here in the south of Ukraine. There will be negotiations with other states and leaders as well. We really appreciate every form of assistance.

Today I held an operational meeting with local leadership – regional authorities, government officials – so that they provide all the necessary assistance to people who have lost their homes as a result of Russian strikes and lost their documents. It must be sufficient assistance. And fast. I am grateful to everyone who supports people, who helps and preserves as much normal life as possible here in Odesa and in all our cities. Russia must not achieve anything with its terror.

I thank everyone who fights for our people and country. I thank everyone who works for Ukraine and in Ukraine. I am grateful to Odesa – to everyone who takes care of our Odesa, who protects the city, who works in the city and provides jobs for people. I thank everyone in the world who helps! We will definitely withstand. We will protect normal life.

Glory to Ukraine!

Earlier today The Washington Post reported that the Biden administration had made over 100 weapons and munitions shipments to Israel that just happened to be below the monetary value threshold that would require them to report the shipments to Congress. These are in addition to the two that they notified Congress about via emergency declaration, which I covered in Israel-Hamas war updates. I had two initial thoughts when I read the reporting. The first was that now we know where the resupply for Ukraine went. The second was if I was the Ukrainians I’d be pissed that the Biden administration isn’t doing this for us. I think these are both valid first impressions, but we’ll have to wait for subsequent reporting to see if they hold up over time. Here’s the reporting so you can think through it for yourself.

The United States has quietly approved and delivered more than 100 separate foreign military sales to Israel since the Gaza war began Oct. 7, amounting to thousands of precision-guided munitions, small-diameter bombs, bunker busters, small arms and other lethal aid, U.S. officials told members of Congress in a recent classified briefing.

The triple-digit figure, which has not been previously reported, is the latest indication of Washington’s extensive involvement in the polarizing five-month conflict even as top U.S. officials and lawmakers increasingly express deep reservations about Israel’s military tactics in a campaign that has killed more than 30,000 people, according to Gaza’s health authorities.

Only two approved foreign military sales to Israel have been made public since the start of conflict: $106 million worth of tank ammunition and $147.5 million of components needed to make 155 mm shells. Those sales invited public scrutiny because the Biden administration bypassed Congress to approve the packages by invoking an emergency authority.

But in the case of the 100 other transactions, known in government-speak as Foreign Military Sales or FMS, the weapons transfers were processed without any public debate because each fell under a specific dollar amount that requires the executive branch to individually notify Congress, according to U.S. officials and lawmakers who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive military matter.

Taken together, the weapons packages amount to a massive transfer of firepower at a time when senior U.S. officials have complained that Israeli officials have fallen short on their appeals to limit civilian casualties, allow more aid into Gaza and refrain from rhetoric calling for the permanent displacement of Palestinians.“That’s an extraordinary number of sales over the course of a pretty short amount of time, which really strongly suggests that the Israeli campaign would not be sustainable without this level of U.S. support,” said Jeremy Konyndyk, a former senior Biden administration official and current president of Refugees International.

State Department spokesman Matt Miller said the Biden administration has “followed the procedures Congress itself has specified to keep members well-informed and regularly briefs members even when formal notification is not a legal requirement.”

He added that U.S. officials have “engaged Congress” on arms transfers to Israel “more than 200 times” since Hamas launched a cross-border attack into Israel that killed 1,200 people and took more than 240 hostage.

More at the link.

This is just strategic incompetence.

If Navalnaya were to protest Russia’s war in Ukraine, witness the war crimes in Bucha committed by Russian army, or even perform one small act of solidarity like many genuine supporters of Ukraine have done, she won’t probably be “viewed with some skepticism in Ukraine”. pic.twitter.com/qKkJFndpJk

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 6, 2024

Whomever is the Senior Director for Ukraine, Russia, and Eurasia on the National Security Staff either needs a welfare check because their recommendation that this would be a bad idea was ignored or needs to be fired because they failed to make it. This is really basic stuff that you have to get right.

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul, who is working on a foreign aid package with Ukraine money and border provisions, expressed confidence today that a bill will be on the floor after government funding is done on March 22.

Asked if Johnson has committed to that,…

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) March 6, 2024

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul, who is working on a foreign aid package with Ukraine money and border provisions, expressed confidence today that a bill will be on the floor after government funding is done on March 22.

Asked if Johnson has committed to that, McCaul told me today: “I think so.” More on McCaul’s and Johnson’s handling of the issue:

https://cnn.com/2024/03/03/politics/mike-johnson-ukraine-funding/index.html

CNN has the details on this definitely, might possibly, could happen vote:

Speaker Mike Johnson swiftly derailed the Senate’s bipartisan aid package for Ukraine, but he’s left the door open to a new proposal emerging in the House.

Behind the scenes, Johnson has met privately with House Republicans who have been trying to build support for a new bipartisan foreign aid package that includes restrictions on the US border with Mexico. And now House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul is taking a lead role in trying to finalize a proposal and build consensus within the conference as part of a push for floor action by late March or April.

Johnson has not yet taken a position on the plan or committed to giving it a floor vote, telling his colleagues that they need to finalize government funding legislation first. But once that process is done by mid-March, Republican backers of the plan believe he will let it come to the floor – even it risks backlash from hard-right members or even a vote for his ouster from the speakership.

“More than you think,” Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a leader of the effort, said bluntly when asked about the support the GOP leadership team has given his bipartisan proposal. “We have to get something done.”

Still, getting legislation through the House remains an extremely tall order. Republicans are badly divided over Ukraine, and former President Donald Trump could effectively kill the bill with one social media post. Plus, ample Democratic support would be needed to pass it – a tall order given that the package includes new border restrictions and aid to Israel that would likely prompt a revolt on the left.

With Russia making gains in Ukraine, proponents say action is needed immediately. Fitzpatrick plans to begin a process this week to circumvent leadership and force a vote – known in the Capitol as a discharge petition, which would require support from a majority of House members to succeed. But even organizers of that effort recognize that it amounts to a long-shot bid and consider it a last resort. Their best bet: convincing Johnson to put the bill on the floor once it’s ready for action.

“I think, first, the speaker wants to get through the normal appropriations process, which is not easy,” McCaul said. “And then after that is done, then we tackle the supplemental. We are currently working on a draft. I think you’ll see a House imprimatur on this supplemental.”

McCaul, who briefed Republicans in the speaker’s office last week on the emerging plan, told CNN that Johnson has been “very deliberate.”

Other proponents of the measure say Johnson has clearly been open to their plan.

“No, I don’t think he’s trying to kill it,” said Rep. Mike Lawler, a freshman New York Republican who has signed on to the effort. “I think he understands the need to get support for Israel, for Ukraine, for Taiwan. … It’s a function of process and working through these issues within the conference.”

Lawler added: “Any threat to use the motion to vacate (the speaker) is idiotic. We need to be focused on solving the problems.”

Johnson has faced pressure on all sides. He has endured criticism internationally and from Democrats who say his failure to act immediately amounts to siding with Vladimir Putin. Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell has pressed him to allow a House vote on the Senate’s $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, warning that any House changes to that plan would simply delay action and make it harder for Ukraine to defeat Russia.

Yet Johnson’s right flank has pointedly warned him not to approve a dime more of funding for Ukraine.

“That would be a huge mistake,” said Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican and staunch opponent of Ukraine aid. “The American people don’t support it, and our job title is representative. Our job title is not fund the CIA’s war against Ukraine. That’s not what we’re elected to do.”

Rep. Bob Good of Virginia, the leader of the House Freedom Caucus and one of the eight Republicans who voted to oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker last fall, would not say whether moving on Ukraine aid would cost Johnson his job. But he said that any aid package must be offset with spending cuts and should not be tied with Israel – a much different approach from the one Fitzpatrick and McCaul are taking.

“Ukraine divides the Republican conference,” Good said. “I don’t think it has majority support. … So if it doesn’t have Republican majority support, it should not be brought.”

The effort to approve more aid to Ukraine has been delayed for months amid GOP infighting. First, Republicans demanded Congress move on tougher border security measures before advancing aid to Ukraine. Then, after a bipartisan border security deal was cut after nearly five months of talks in the Senate, Johnson – along with Trump – immediately declared it too weak, effectively killing the effort.

After the Senate dropped the border deal amid Johnson’s opposition and then approved the $95 billion aid package last month, McConnell said the House GOP could no longer wait to act.

“If they change it and send it back here, we have further delay,” the Kentucky Republican told reporters last week. “Not only do we not want to shut the government down, we don’t want the Russians to win in Ukraine. And so we have a time problem here. And the best way to move quickly and get the bill to the president would be for the House to take up the Senate bill and pass it.”

Johnson has said he won’t take up the Senate plan because it’s silent on the border. But on Thursday, he suggested that he’s willing to consider measures being developed in the House.

“The House is actively considering options on a path forward,” Johnson said. “And so, we’re getting government funding done, and then we’re going to turn to these other priorities.”

Johnson definitely, maybe, possibly might eventually do something.

Latvia, however, is stepping up:

Thank you for your support!
Together, we will win.
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇻 https://t.co/EajuEIEcL2

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 6, 2024

Overnight across Ukraine:

Russia unleashed 42 Shahed drones on Ukraine tonight. 38 were downed. Drones, not missiles, are now the deadliest weapons Russia targets civilians with. Each time, I wonder, will we have enough weapons to take them down? pic.twitter.com/OguhiM2GTC

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 6, 2024

The Financial Times has more on Russia’s attack on Odesa. This was reported before RFE/RL reported the accurate information that the impact site was several kilometers away from where President Zelenskyy and PM Mitsokasis were at the time of impact.

A Russian ballistic missile struck “very close” to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Kyriakos Mitsotakis while the pair were visiting the port of Odesa on Wednesday, according to the Greek prime minister.

Five people were killed by the missile, Ukraine’s navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk told the Financial Times. Russia said it hit a hangar housing sea drones that have been used to attack Russian ships in the Black Sea.

“We saw the explosion today,” Zelenskyy said. “You see who we are dealing with, they don’t care where to hit. I know that there were victims today. It doesn’t matter if it’s soldiers, civilians or international [guests], they don’t care.”

The attack happened shortly after the two leaders and their teams were at Odesa’s harbour, where Zelenskyy was explaining the Black Sea port’s importance to Ukrainian exports and pointing out the damage to infrastructure from Russia’s previous attacks as the full-scale war entered its third year.

Sirens went off during the visit. “A little later, as we entered into our cars, we heard a large explosion,” Mitsotakis said. The incident was the “liveliest reminder that in Ukraine, there is a real war going on,” he added.

The explosion took place about 300 metres from where the motorcade was, according to a Greek official.

“That’s another reason that all European leaders should visit Ukraine,” Mitsotakis said. “It’s one thing to see or hear the description from the media or from President Zelenskyy, with whom we communicate regularly, and it’s completely different to experience the war first hand.”

More at the link!

Avdiivka:

The "Avdiivka" naval drone will be a revenge for russia for destroyed Ukrainian cities.

📷: @ServiceSsu pic.twitter.com/IDvUgV3rLu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 6, 2024

And we have video!

Tests of the new version of the Ukrainian Sea Baby naval drone with a new hull design. As said new model can carry up to 10 centners of explosives over distances of up to 1000km. But the possibilities of using marine drones of this model will not be limited only to use in the… pic.twitter.com/4n7QtuqLag

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 6, 2024

Tests of the new version of the Ukrainian Sea Baby naval drone with a new hull design. As said new model can carry up to 10 centners of explosives over distances of up to 1000km. But the possibilities of using marine drones of this model will not be limited only to use in the kamikaze role. It is said that the design of the drone allows the installation of modules for firing at enemy coastal targets. There is also said to be the possibility of installing air defense systems on the platform.
https://youtu.be/6eVBn6gYZNE?si=jPiLfS-6ZXQ2NOsR

Here’s the full video:

More on the attack on the Kotov:

/12. Clear view on the Kotov before the attack also shows that there was no TOR air defence system on the helipad. Therefore, theoretically, there could be a helicopter on board (in the ship’s hangar). However, this can only be visually confirmed if someone wants to dive after… pic.twitter.com/WWj82G9M7E

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 6, 2024

And we have new video of the February 2024 strike on the Caesar Kunikov:

/2. Same video but partially sounded published by Russians. pic.twitter.com/uhb4nvuHPw

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 6, 2024

Video of the Ukrainian MAGURA V5 naval kamikaze drones attack on Caesar Kunikov from the Russian point of view.

As well as the Russian claims regarding this attack:

“The crew repelled the naval kamikaze drone attack with all available forces and means, the battle lasted 20 minutes. Of the 10 drones, four were destroyed. The fifth drone hit the ship in the stern, thereby immobilizing the ship, after which the 6, 7, 8 and 9 drones alternately hit the ship on the port side in the midship area (middle) and closer to the stern, with the aim of capsizing the ship (due to the influx of a large amount of water from one side). The ninth drone partially entered the hole made by the previous one, and detonated almost inside of the ship.

There was no way to save the ship (the list was rapidly increasing, the ship was lying on the left side). From the moment the enemy drones were discovered and the start of the battle, until the ship was completely flooded, a little more than 40 minutes passed. The crew left the ship using life rafts, without loss of personnel, and evacuated all secret documentation and part of the secret equipment with weapons. The last 10th drone monitored the dying ship until the sinking, after which the 10th drone tried to attack the accompanying tug, but was destroyed by the group on board”

Novomykhailivka:

/2. Ongoing Russian attacks on Novomykhailivka, video by Shadow unit. https://t.co/0pRHe3kOa8 pic.twitter.com/R4Sjbfl73h

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 6, 2024

/1. Another video of the ongoing Russian attacks on Novomykhailivka area. Published by the 79th Brigade. At the 0:51 their is another loss of the Russian T-62M with KMT-6 mine plow. Since February, the statistics of losses of Russian T-62/55/54 have increased significantly compared to previous figures.
https://facebook.com/79AMBUA/videos/427359869951493/

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

One of the largest plants producing raw iron ore materials in Russia in Zheleznogorsk, Kursk Oblast, was attacked by unidentified flying objects. Reportedly, the drone struck right into the fuel tank on the territory of the plant.

The facility is sanctioned by the US and the UK… pic.twitter.com/lggayGiIsk

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 6, 2024

One of the largest plants producing raw iron ore materials in Russia in Zheleznogorsk, Kursk Oblast, was attacked by unidentified flying objects. Reportedly, the drone struck right into the fuel tank on the territory of the plant.

The facility is sanctioned by the US and the UK as it’s linked to oligarch Alisher Usmanov.

Last night AlaskaReader asked:

@Adam L Silverman: I see action on one nominee today, Ronald T. Keohane, to be an Assistant Secretary of Defense, vice James N. Stewart.

Are these ongoing holdups still fallout from Tuberville or are there other actors involved?

I’m going to assume the resistance to nominees is coming from one party, or are there persons identifiable so as to become a target for applied pressure from the public?.

Some of this is still hangover from Tuberville. Others are being slow walked as a result of objections from the GOP minority on the Senate Armed Services Committee. This is what seems to be the case with the nominee to become Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. Apparently he’s controversial.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

First some Ukrainian dogs and cats courtesy of Michael Kofman. Look at that Frenchie in the first pic!

Back from a recent field study in Ukraine. Some thoughts soon to follow. But first, a few photos of some of the cats and dogs I met on the trip. pic.twitter.com/d986pKjFfs

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 6, 2024

A new episode of Patron’s official cartoon!

Open thread!

Today, the International Criminal Court has taken another step: arrest warrants for the commanders of Russian murderers – Long-Range Aviation and Black Sea Fleet – address by the President of Ukraine

5 March 2024 – 19:18

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, the International Criminal Court has taken another step – arrest warrants have been issued for two more representatives of the Russian leadership. This time – military leadership. Commanders of the Russian murderers – Long-Range Aviation and Black Sea Fleet of the terrorist state. In particular, they have carried out and are carrying out a terrorist campaign against our state and people targeting our energy sector and civilian infrastructure. These are obvious crimes – Russia’s war crimes and crimes against humanity. And this is exactly what the International Criminal Court is addressing in a principled fashion.

Once international justice starts working, it cannot be stopped. Justice for Ukraine, for Ukrainians, and for the international community as a whole will definitely be restored. I am thankful to Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Karim Khan, to the entire team of the International Criminal Court and our Ukrainian team working to restore justice – all the officials who are investigating Russian war crimes, all the experts who are helping, the Prosecutor General and his Office, and all the law enforcement officers of Ukraine. Russian murderers will be held accountable – there is no doubt about it.

Today I want to thank all our warriors, all the units that are restoring security and control in the Ukrainian skies and in our Black Sea. Ukraine has proved what we are capable of, what our strength is capable of. This is evidenced by the number of downed Russian military aircraft and the capabilities of our guys against the Russian fleet. There are no longer any safe harbors for Russian terrorists in the Black Sea and there will never be any more. And there will be no safe space in the sky for them, provided our Ukrainian strength is sufficient. This applies to both supplies from partners and our domestic production.

Today I held several meetings on this. There was a report from the Ministry of Strategic Industries on our defense production, as well as relevant communication with partners. We are implementing the recently reached agreements on supplies and joint projects in the shortest possible time. I am grateful to everyone in the world who helps in a principled, timely and uninterrupted manner.

I also held a meeting with the international bloc of the government and the Office on key issues in certain areas. We are planning our actions for this month, for this spring, to provide Ukraine with the necessary strength and capabilities. Ukraine has to achieve its goals, and all of us in the world have to restore the full force of international law. And when that happens, no terrorist state like Russia will be able to dictate anything either to its neighbors or to the whole world.

I thank everyone who helps Ukraine! I thank everyone who fights and works for our country and people.

Glory to Ukraine!

3 hours ago:

Air raid alert is in Kyiv region, as well as in many other Ukraine regions. It looks like another Russian drone attack. pic.twitter.com/VJUDIF19YN

— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) March 5, 2024

⚡️Explosions reported in Odesa.

Several explosions were heard in Ukraine's southern city of Odesa at around 11 p.m. local time on March 5, Suspilne news outlet reported.

The Air Force earlier warned about Russian attack drones flying toward the city.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 5, 2024

Germany:

“Scholz has hunkered down in his refusal to send the missiles. He doesn’t seem to understand that by doing that he’s become the best piece on Putin’s chessboard.” https://t.co/jWll2FURQX

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 5, 2024

The Financial Times has the details of Olaf’s cowardice:

Olaf Scholz’s message last week was clear: Berlin would not deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv because German soldiers would have to be sent to Ukraine to programme them. And that meant Germany would be dragged into war with Russia.

The German chancellor’s argument has now been blown apart — by his own military. A conversation between German air force officers that was intercepted and leaked by Russian media late last week revealed Ukrainian soldiers could operate the Taurus missiles without German “boots on the ground”, as long as they were adequately trained.

“The leak is official confirmation that the chancellor wasn’t telling the truth,” said Norbert Röttgen, an MP for the opposition Christian Democrats and member of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee. “It massively damages his credibility.”

Scholz’s allies have rallied to his defence. Rolf Mützenich, head of the chancellor’s Social Democrat (SPD) parliamentary group, told ARD TV on Sunday that the business of sending Tauruses to Ukraine was always “a political and legal grey zone which I myself wouldn’t want to set foot in”. “For that reason, [Scholz’s] decision is politically and legally reasonable,” he said.

Even before the leak, doubts were being expressed in western capitals about Scholz’s approach. Officials in London and Paris expressed dismay last week after he revealed publicly that British and French troops were on the ground in Ukraine helping to operate Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles — a situation he would not permit with the Tauruses.

But the eavesdropping affair has caused much more damage, triggering massive concern about the safety of German government communications as wars rage in Europe and the Middle East. Germany was “caught with its pants down, again”, lamented the mass circulation Bild Zeitung on Monday. “It’s as if [Russia’s leader Vladimir] Putin dropped a cluster bomb over Berlin,” said the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

It was in May 2023 that the Ukrainian authorities first asked for Taurus cruise missiles, one of the most modern weapons systems in the Bundeswehr’s arsenal. With a range of up to 500km they can be used against “high-value targets” such as bunkers or command posts and can penetrate several walls of reinforced concrete.

But in October, Scholz turned down the Ukrainian request. For many this was typical: he had long refused to supply Kyiv with German Leopard tanks, fearing Russian retaliation. But in January last year he finally bowed to intense domestic and international pressure and reversed course.

For months Scholz declined to explain his position on Tauruses. But last week he finally broke his silence, saying German soldiers would have to be stationed in Ukraine to programme the missiles. Berlin would then become directly involved in the war, an outcome he has consistently sought to avoid.

“German soldiers must not be connected at any point with the targets that this system reaches,” he said.

Fellow SPD politicians say Scholz’s caution has huge support among German voters, and the Russian leak has not changed that.

“People here like the way he cautiously weighs up the pros and cons of supplying different weapons systems,” said Nils Schmid, the SPD’s foreign policy spokesperson. “Like Scholz, they don’t want Germany to become a party to this war.”

Schmid added Germans also agreed with the chancellor about the risks of supplying Ukraine with “so impactful a weapon”. “You just don’t know how they would deploy it in an emergency situation,” he said.

But Scholz’s position on Taurus has raised hackles inside his own governing coalition. Worried about Ukraine’s recent setbacks on the battlefield and the US Congress’ failure to approve more military aid for Kyiv, liberal and Green MPs have urged a rethink on a missile that has the potential to significantly boost Ukraine’s military capabilities.

Late last month the three parties in Scholz’s coalition passed a resolution requesting the delivery of “long-range weapons systems” to Kyiv that could strike “far in the rear of the Russian aggressor”. Taurus was not named, but it was clearly implied.

It was also the main subject of the intercepted Luftwaffe call. The officers involved, who included Luftwaffe chief Ingo Gerhartz, were heard to say the missiles could be used by Ukraine to attack the bridge linking mainland Russia to the Crimean peninsula, among other targets. The men also said Ukrainian troops could be trained in Germany to use the missiles. But they stressed that Scholz’s government had still not given the green light for the missiles to be delivered to Kyiv.

Some in Scholz’s SPD think that could one day change. “The leak doesn’t reduce Scholz’s room for manoeuvre — he can still come to a different decision on Tauruses in the future,” Schmid said.

But others said Russia’s aim was to make sure Scholz would never be able to execute a U-turn on the missiles. “Russia has succeeded in creating the perfect political dilemma in Germany,” said Christian Mölling, a defence analyst with the German Council on Foreign Relations. “It will now be all the more difficult for Scholz to re-evaluate the situation and change his mind on the Tauruses after all.”

Johann Wadephul, the Christian Democrats’ spokesperson on foreign and defence affairs, said Putin’s aim was to “entangle Scholz in a web of hints and contorted explanations” to such an extent that it would be impossible for him to opt to supply the Tauruses in the future.

“Scholz has hunkered down in his refusal to send the missiles,” Wadephul said. “He doesn’t seem to understand that by doing that he’s become the best piece on Putin’s chessboard.”

More at the link.

France via Prague:

Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:

"Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin.
If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and… pic.twitter.com/vP5NalKQ8d

— Julien Hoez (@JulienHoez) March 5, 2024

Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:

“Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin.
If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us.”

The EU’s new defense industrial strategy is out!

The “buy 50% EU by 2030” would have potentially drastic implications for many EU member states who are buying or plan to buy British, European, Asian or ‘hybrid’ kit: F35, Typhoon, HIMARS, Apache, and GCAP/Tempest beyond that. https://t.co/30gltx3bKA https://t.co/7Gws6dDfyt

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 5, 2024

Here’s the summary from the European Commission:

With Russia’s unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine, high-intensity conflict has returned to our continent.  This is why a new, first-ever European Defence Industrial Strategy has been put forward. It sets a clear, long-term vision to achieve defence industrial readiness in the European Union. We need to have the defence systems and equipment ready when they are needed and in the quantities that are needed.

The Strategy sets out several new actions to achieve this:

• encouraging EU countries to invest more, better, together and European. This will be promoted thanks to new programmes to buy and work more easily together at the European level.
• making European defence industry stronger, more responsive and more innovative. Steps will also be taken to support research, boost investment and work on issues along supply chains. As part of this, an Office for Defence Innovation will open in Kyiv.
• funding to readythe defence industry, through a new European Defence Industry Programme worth €1.5 billion and discussing defence needs for the next long-term EU budget
• teaming up with partners across the globe – Ukraine will for instance be able to take part in EU defence industry programmes.

The Strategy also sets out a number of targets. By 2030, EU countries should:

• buy at least 40% of the defence equipment by working together
• spend at least half of their defence procurement budget on products made in Europe
• trade at least 35% of defence goods between EU countries instead of with other countries

This will help make the EU safer and more resilient. It will not only benefit all of us in the EU, but also key allies including NATO and Ukraine.

Here’s the link to the fact sheet.

And here’s the link to the strategy itself.

This HIMARS had a damn good run!

A year and a half in active use in war before the first confirmed loss… This had to happen at some point, of course. https://t.co/14V8Uz8unS

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 5, 2024

A bit more on the naval drone strike:

It is interesting that in the last three known cases of naval kamikaze drone attacks on the Russian fleet, in each case the drones tried to attack the same place on the ship’s hull that had previously been damaged by the previous drone detonation. Which is possibly one of the… https://t.co/iBE7S1l4PK pic.twitter.com/XQ7gJWpPeK

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 5, 2024

It is interesting that in the last three known cases of naval kamikaze drone attacks on the Russian fleet, in each case the drones tried to attack the same place on the ship’s hull that had previously been damaged by the previous drone detonation. Which is possibly one of the tactics for naval drone strikes against ships.

 

Here's your video.
My only question is: who is out there making decisions on music tracks? pic.twitter.com/DCbwkKdA1W

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 5, 2024

That’s a good question.

Donetsk Oblast:

10 years ago today before the Russians occupied it.

March 5, 2014 – Donetsk, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/yZWheXMmrk

— Pierre M. (@Mrchk0) March 5, 2024

Donetsk oblast has the best regional flag in europe and im not open to discussion pic.twitter.com/4TLP6svrRi

— Desiderius🎗️⚒️ (@doctoradmiral) March 5, 2024

The Avdiivka front.

Support from the sky.
The work of 🇺🇦 Army Aviation helicopters in the Avdiivka direction.

📹: 47th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/Hm6MtMsdvH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 5, 2024

Footage of the effective use of FPV drones by the 3rd Assault Brigade's UAV Battalion near Avdiivka: enemy attack repelled, resulting in 15 enemy deaths. The enemy platoon was completely destroyed from a distance. Annotation provided. pic.twitter.com/GIg7bJB8GR

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 5, 2024

Berdychi, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Interesting info from a russian military instructor who covered the defeat of at least two Russian assault groups in Berdychi that assaulted without artillery support. He says the majority of russian FPVs won't even take off due to own EW efforts, rendering assault groups… pic.twitter.com/E9ncBHhT3j

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 5, 2024

Interesting info from a russian military instructor who covered the defeat of at least two Russian assault groups in Berdychi that assaulted without artillery support. He says the majority of russian FPVs won’t even take off due to own EW efforts, rendering assault groups defenceless against Ukrainian fire.

Polohivs’kyi District, Russian occupied Zaporizhia Oblast:

Strikes on several Russian MLRS. Presumably three BM-27 Uragan 220mm MLRS. 26km from the frontline (47.4094722, 36.5261111)https://t.co/bhzHBW3Jjw pic.twitter.com/iB2lQi5DKt

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 5, 2024

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Air alert in Belgorod. The gas storage near the village of Delgoye was hit by drones. Three tanks are on fire.

Source: Telegram / Mash and 112 pic.twitter.com/GiBkdpBQrf

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 5, 2024

Moscow, Russia:

Moscow police begins arresting people who went to Navalny's funeral. They're being singled out from videos of the event. https://t.co/ivCeDaw1qI

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) March 5, 2024

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos. Here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

A power nap in the trenches.

📷: 128 @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/9MWoy5W24x

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 5, 2024

Open thread!