As I start tonight’s post, 6:17 PM EDT, only Kharkiv is under air raid alert and it has been under attack for the past two hours.
And Israel, Israel is under air raid alert too.
I’m going to keep the focus tonight on Ukraine, because, while Iran is not blameless in its own and its proxies actions against Israel, quite frankly, the Israelis, and specifically Bibi, have done this to themselves with their attack on the Quds Force commander in Damascus. I don’t want anyone else in Israel, the West Bank, or Gaza to get hurt, and there is a real risk of that when debris comes down as Iran has launched several hundred drones and an unknown number of cruise missiles. These are expected to target Israeli military facilities in the Golan and Negev in the early morning hours, not Israeli civilians and civilian infrastructure. This is the same aerial bombardment strategy of using drones to overwhelm air defense so the missiles can get through that we are used to seeing the Russians use against the Ukrainians.
We are where we are because, as Avraham Shalom, the head of the Shin Bet in the early to mid 80s, stated in regard to Israeli leadership in The Gatekeepers documentary: ayn strategik, raq taktik. No strategy, only tactics. I will, however, start with a couple of items pertaining to what is going on between Israel and Iran.
First, a more recent former head of Shin Bet:
Former Head of Shin Bet Nadav Argaman states it plain and simple @Uvda_tweet: “if Netanyahu isn’t removed from office, Israel is doomed” #NetanyahuMustGoHomeNow #BringThemAllHomeNOW (credit:@UnxeptableD) pic.twitter.com/poj2CNhmku
— Dan Arbell (@DanArbell) April 13, 2024
And two assessments from Eran Etzion, the former deputy director of Israel’s equivalent to the US National Security Council.
⭕️Crucial points from Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister's office:
🛑The elimination of the Iranian general in Damascus was one of two things – either severe strategic negligence that needs to be investigated, or a… https://t.co/kciMmCpvL6
— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) April 13, 2024
⭕️Crucial points from Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office:
🛑The elimination of the Iranian general in Damascus was one of two things – either severe strategic negligence that needs to be investigated, or a deliberate attempt to draw Iran into the conflict, in absolute contradiction to the demands of the USA & its interests. Anyone involved in this decision needs to provide explanations.
🛑Israel is deep in the most severe crisis in its history, with broken national decision-making mechanisms, led by a man who has lost his judgment and acts based on foreign considerations, & without control and oversight mechanisms over the executive authority.
🛑In my cautious estimate, what is actually happening is coordination between the USA and Iran and containment of the Iranian response. If the coordination succeeds, the USA will prevent an Israeli response. And if the coordination fails, the USA will be in a difficult dilemma.
_
Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister's office:
"At this stage, it is too early to assess what exactly Iran is trying to achieve with its massive and unprecedented retaliatory operation against Israel.
However, it seems… https://t.co/LuPlSph8lS
— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) April 13, 2024
Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s office:
“At this stage, it is too early to assess what exactly Iran is trying to achieve with its massive and unprecedented retaliatory operation against Israel.
However, it seems that Iran does not intend to enter into a full-scale war. This is also clearly evident from the wording of the American response. Both countries are trying to contain the incident. Arab states are also walking a tightrope. They will intercept Iranian armaments that enter their territory and will not approve the passage of Israeli aircraft.
Tomorrow morning, when we will probably be after the Iranian attack, a damage assessment will be conducted. As long as the damages are limited (and we are not entering a more precise resolution at the moment), the USA will likely demand Israel not to respond, or to respond in a very limited way.
And so it is right that Israel should act. The main reason is the fact that Israel does not have a functioning government, led by a person who is unfit, and that the top ranks of the IDF are tainted by the terrible failure of 10/7.
This government must not drag Israel into a regional war, and we are already a step from there. In hopes that the event can be closed quickly, we must return to the negotiating table with Hamas, quickly agree on a hostage deal in exchange for a ceasefire, and go to snap elections.
Only a competent government, with new military leadership, will be worthy of the trust of the citizens of Israel, and will be able to start planning and implementing a comprehensive strategy against regional threats.
This will be done in full and close coordination with the USA, and with the relevant regional countries.”
Iran’s official statement:
Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli…
— Permanent Mission of I.R.Iran to UN, NY (@Iran_UN) April 13, 2024
Bibi is hold up in a built to spec nuclear bunker under the home of an Israeli-American billionaire in Jerusalem where he and his wife Sara have been hiding from the protestors every night.
Jerusalem: Protest gathers outside home of US duty free billionaire Simon Falic, where the Netanyahous are hunkering down in his private reinforced bomb shelter. (For real)
(Orna Kupferman) pic.twitter.com/nqfEsxM4k1— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) April 13, 2024
Says it all really.
Bibi will, of course, do the stupidest thing possible in response because he needs to expand his war. The war against Hamas in Gaza is a failure. Israel has not achieved a single one of its strategic objectives because it never actually developed a theater campaign plan to do so. Just a tactical response. On the 8th of October 2023, Israel’s war cabinet voted to go to war with Hezbullah in Lebanon. President Biden put a stop to that, though Israel has been trading missile strikes both with Hezbullah in Lebanon and with other Iranian proxies in Syria. Those tit for tat strikes have led Israelis living in the north to flee. At the same time the extremist ultra-nationalist and ultra-devout settlers in the West Bank are fighting their own low intensity war against the Palestinians there. They are being egged on by convicted terrorist and Minister of National Security ben-Gvir and Minister of the Treasury Smotrich. Bibi needs a wider regional war even though he can’t even win the ones he’s currently waging.
Again, I DO NOT want to see any innocent Israelis, Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank, or even Iranians who live under their theocratic tyrants, injured as a result of this strategic stupidity. However, as long as Bibi and his extremist coalition are in charge, Israel needs to be treated by the US as a hostile foreign power. It won’t be, but it should be.
Iran’s retaliatory strike on Israel will also negatively affect Ukraine:
Iran's attack on Israel has another unforeseen consequence: Russia's attacks on Ukraine will mostly go unnoticed, essentially giving Russia a free hand for further assaults on Ukrainian infrastructure. https://t.co/ee9l4gxHd9
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 13, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. It is a bit of good news. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
War for Ukraine Day 780: The World BurnsPost + Comments (83)