Since nobody here is liable to have a subscription to Puck, figured I’d share a recent story they chose to title “The Senate’s Midterm Paralysis Problem” [gift link]:
In Washington, midsummer marks the unofficial start of the next year’s midterm election cycle—peak persuasion season for party leadership, donors, and strategists to lock in the incumbents and fresh recruits they’ll want on the congressional battle map the following November. This year, however, everything feels especially up for grabs. In the Senate, retirement rumors are flying as Republicans sweet-talk their colleagues to hold strong in must-protect seats. Meanwhile, Democrats are working valiantly to persuade potential high-profile candidates to run—hoping to defend their numbers and expand the Senate map.
For Republicans, of course, the biggest wild card is Trump, himself. As in past years, the president is wielding his endorsement power to extract maximum leverage over the field, ensuring candidates don’t stray from his MAGA agenda. North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis, for one, has already elected to retire in 2026 rather than suffer the indignity of a Trump-backed primary challenger. But the contingent nature of Trump’s support has also injected uncertainty into the party’s 2026 planning in multiple states.
In Louisiana, I’m told that Trump is unlikely to endorse Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to impeach the president in 2021 and has done little since then to make amends privately, even though he’s voted in lockstep with Trump’s agenda. For now, however, Trump is unlikely to endorse a primary challenger against Cassidy either—he understands that angering more senators won’t help him on the Hill, especially when he already has skeptics in Tillis, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, and Susan Collins.
Meanwhile, Trump has made it clear that he will not endorse any House member from a remotely competitive district who is giving up a seat to run for statewide office, I’m told by multiple sources. That could complicate things in Michigan, where Rep. Bill Huizenga is looking to jump chambers, and in Kentucky, where I hear Trump isn’t thrilled that Rep. Andy Barr, who occupies a safe seat that Trump won by 11 points, is running to replace McConnell. (Rep. Mike Lawler, who had considered a run for governor in New York, is now telling people that he’s going to stay in the House.)…
GOP (Possibly) in Disarray Open Thread: Who’d Be A Senator Now?Post + Comments (126)



