As I've written, Democrats face long odds in all of Iowa's statewide races in 2026, because of the structure of Iowa's electorate & the longstanding GOP turnout advantage in midterms.
www.bleedingheartland.com/2025/06/15/r…
But an open seat would be less of a long shot.— Laura Belin (@laurarbelin.bsky.social) July 10, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Per Politico, “Joni Ernst is the next GOP senator on retirement watch”:
… The two-term Iowa senator hasn’t officially announced her plans for 2026, and she’s gone through some of the motions of launching another campaign, including recently hiring someone to manage it and announcing her annual fall fundraiser.
But three people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions said there is rising concern among fellow Senate Republicans that Ernst will retire rather than run for reelection, giving Republicans another seat to defend next fall.
Many will be watching closely for clues next week when Ernst files new campaign fundraising totals. She raised just over $1 million in the first quarter of 2025, a solid but not overwhelming number for an in-cycle senator.
Asked about the senator’s 2026 plans, Ernst spokesperson Palmer Brigham declined to say definitively that she would run again: “Senator Ernst is focused on her work delivering for Iowans in the Senate to make Washington ‘squeal,’ making President Trump’s historic tax cuts permanent through the One Big Beautiful Bill, and advancing a strong NDAA.”
Ernst has told people as recently as the past month that she is still considering whether she wants to run again, according to a fourth person granted anonymity to discuss the matter…
Open Thread:<em> ‘Look, Everyone Dies’</em>Post + Comments (55)





