Balloon Juice - Open Threads Archives

Thursday Morning Open Thread

by Betty Cracker| July 3, 20258:24 am| 230 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

Looks like Repubs will pass the Big Billionaire Blowjob on a party line vote. The latest from WaPo’s live coverage:

The Republican-led House is nearing passage of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and immigration bill, as it seeks to meet Trump’s deadline to get the bill to his desk by July 4. As debate draws to a close, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) is speaking at length on the House floor, decrying cuts to Medicaid and other provisions in the sweeping legislation. At one point, Jeffries referred to the House floor as a “crime scene.” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) has confidently declared that Trump and GOP leaders have notched enough votes to pass the bill, which the Senate approved Tuesday. Meanwhile, Trump plans to head to Iowa on Thursday to showcase next year’s celebration of the nation’s 250th birthday.

I believe they will reap the whirlwind. Unfortunately, so will the rest of us.

Right now, I’m watching something much more pleasant than the Congressional shit-show. A Roseate Spoonbill is in our lagoon hunting for crawdads. There are also Limpkins and a Snowy Egret, plus a pair of Common Gallinules, aka, moorhens.

Anyone have big plans for the Fourth of July? I don’t feel like there’s much to celebrate this year, but a day off is nice.

Open thread!

Thursday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (230)

War for Ukraine Day 1,224: Make It Hot!

by Adam L Silverman| July 2, 202510:44 pm| 23 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

The Ukrainians have fired for effect!

Ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Khartsyzsk in Donetsk Oblast reported to have been struck. Huge explosion with visible shock wave caught on video, along with colorful Russian swearing. Fire and many secondary explosions reported. There was a missile alert before the strike.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 4:26 PM

More from Khartsyzk

It’s the most beautiful thing I’ve seen all day 😍

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 5:55 PM

Russians are a bit panicking👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 6:13 PM

Nope not a low(er) yield nuke used for tactical effect, just a great example of what happens when you get the right weaponeering for the target you want to blow up real good.

Last night Old School asked:

The first, as I’ve hammered over and over and over again for the past three years is that the US defense industrial base has not been put on a war footing.

Forgive my ignorance, but I’m not sure what that involves. I guess I’ve assumed that a defense contractor knows they’ll get millions of dollars more by producing more weapons then the business would make arrangements for that to happen.

Do contractors really not generate as much profits as possible unless asked? (Ordered?). (Again, I’m unclear as to what the government would actually be doing.)

It would have meant the Biden administration seeking and getting a significant increase in defense budgeting and appropriations to rapidly increase the production of weapons systems, weapons, munitions, ammunitions, and other defense material like armored vehicles. Some of this would’ve been done by Biden invoking the Defense Production Act and authorize activities under it. Which lots of us were doing everything from asking to begging to screaming for him and his natsec team to do. While companies that work in the defense and intelligence sector, like all other companies, seek to maximize profit and shareholder returns, they can’t just do things, such as hire more personnel to make munitions, expand production lines, buy raw materials, etc unless they are contracted to do so. The government, which is the client, has to provide the company with the requirement and the requirement also has to be funded. Just because Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, etc have an existing contract to make Patriots or Strykers or Bradleys or M4s or M2s (MA DUECE!!!!) or 155 mm shells or NATO spec 5.56 ammo or to source any of this stuff, does not mean they can just start hiring, buying, building, and/or producing. When you combine this with the fact that Congress works on an annual budget and appropriations cycle and much of what I’ve just described needs year on year certainty and you get another complication. Remember since, 2013 or so, the US government has been working under the one of the stupidest budgetary agreements every made – the Sequester/Budget Control Act – combined with how Trump and the GOP do budgeting and appropriations with a detour through COVID and the Biden administration with two years of Democratic control of the House and Senate. Which is why I kept insisting in post after post during the first two years of the Biden administration that he and his natsec team leveraging those Democratic majorities to expand production, ship everything that wasn’t nailed down up to the threshold that would leave us unable to fight if we had to, and just go with full on militarized Keynesianism.

He and his team didn’t. One of the major players in that decision was this guy:

Please just sh**t me already

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 5:35 PM

The reason we’re at the point where a transactional, mercurial, vindictive Trump and the genteel isolationist senior nat-sec professionals his personnel people put into place can turn off the supply pipeline is that even when Biden was still president and Sullivan was his National Security Advisor, the Biden administration didn’t actually send everything Congress had authorized before they ran out of time on 20 January 2025. Sullivan should be driven from both polite and impolite society. He’s a galactic failure as a national security professional. He doesn’t deserve the sinecures he’s got. Frankly, he should be airdropped into southern Sudan or Gaza or Saada or Russian occupied Luhansk without a passport or money and told to figure out how to get home safely. If he survives he might actually learn something.

I’ll stop now before I say something intemperate.

Right now, no one actually seems to really know what has and has not been paused. Which just creates more fog and friction for the Ukrainians.

From The New Voice of Ukraine:

“Deliveries are ongoing. It would look very strange, it would look inhumane — let’s put it this way — to stop supplying anti-missiles, especially for the Patriot systems, which very clearly and massively protect the civilian population in Ukraine,” Podolyak said.

On July 1, Politico reported that the Pentagon had temporarily halted the supply of certain air defense missiles and other precision-guided munitions to Ukraine due to concerns over depleting U.S. stockpiles. According to the outlet, the decision was made in early June but only recently went into effect.

Later, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly confirmed that the U.S. had paused some weapons shipments to Ukraine following a Defense Department review and increased support from other partner nations.

On July 2, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said it had not received any official notice of suspended or revised schedules for previously agreed U.S. military aid and was currently seeking clarification.

The ministry requested a phone call with its American counterparts to clarify the matter and said it would report on the results of the discussion once available.

The Defense Ministry also stressed that individuals making public claims about weapons transfers to Ukraine may not have access to complete information.

It’s also demoralizing:

“Although it is unclear how many weapons were included and how soon the pause will be felt on the battlefield, the signal seems clear: Washington is disengaging from the war.”

Put it in the dictionary next to the word “betrayal.”

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 8:50 AM

And it encourages the Russians:

Completely expected. The Kremlin welcomed the US decision to cut weapons shipments to Ukriane. “The less weaponry is supplied to Ukraine, the sooner the [invasion] will end,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to Interfax.
www.ft.com/content/b69e…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) July 2, 2025 at 8:50 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Currently, at the Working Level, Ukraine and the U.S. Are Clarifying All the Details of the Defense Support – Address by the President

2 July 2025 – 19:33

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians.

A few important updates from today. I have just met with entrepreneurs – members of the American Chamber of Commerce. These are significant businesses. I thanked them for their work in Ukraine and with Ukraine – these are companies that pay taxes in our country and preserve job opportunities. But they are also companies and people with significant influence. It is important for all of us in Ukraine that everyone now uses their personal influence to achieve a collective outcome. Continued U.S. support for Ukraine, for our defense, for our people, is in our shared interest, held by everyone in our country. Air defense for Ukraine is protection for every company operating in our state, holding assets here, and developing their production. Ukraine’s message is absolutely clear: together, we can achieve more. I thank all the companies and entrepreneurs who support Ukrainian defense, who support Ukrainian resilience. Today, we discussed how meaningful it is when companies withdraw from the Russian market and choose to work right here, in Ukraine. We are also establishing a new network of cooperation with the United States and many other countries, based on shared opportunities for developing industry and technological sectors.

But of course, security, of course, protection from Russian strikes is the cornerstone. And we expect greater engagement from businesses in promoting this security agenda of ours.

Also today, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense and Minister of Foreign Affairs gave their reports, in particular on our relations with the United States. Currently, at the working level, Ukraine and the U.S. are clarifying all the details of the defense support, including the air defense component. One way or another, we must ensure protection for our people. There were also discussions today about the next steps in our relations with the European Union, during this period of Denmark’s six-month Presidency. There was a meeting today with our Government officials and the Office team – we are also working with Denmark and other partners on new agreements for arms production, including joint manufacturing, and we’re also preparing updates on our interceptor drones.

I spoke today with the President of Egypt – it was a very important conversation about our bilateral relations and, of course, ways to bring the war closer to an end. Egypt is ready to help. We agreed to activate the work of the Ukraine–Egypt intergovernmental commission and our entire bilateral cooperation.

And one more thing.

We are also continuing our entirely justified efforts targeting various individuals who have aligned themselves with Russia. Figures with political influence and Russian passports, individuals who work against Ukraine’s independence in all its dimensions, including spiritual independence, anyone who supports or justifies aggression: all these people have no place in Ukraine, and never will. We are adopting the respective decisions. And we are preparing new Ukrainian sanctions – resolutions of the National Security and Defense Council will follow.

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also met with representatives of companies that are part of the US Chamber of Commerce today.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy Meets with Representatives of American Business in Ukraine

2 July 2025 – 22:44

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with representatives of companies – members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine.

The meeting was attended by representatives from Horizon Capital, Cisco Systems, Unilever, Carlsberg, Avrora Multimarket, Microsoft, KPMG, Winner Imports, Coca-Cola, Cargill, CHS, Citibank, AON, CBRE, OTIS, KBR, Pfizer, Google, Baker Hughes, WTW, Wooden Horse, Parsons Corporation, Visa, AGCO, McDonald’s, Honeywell, ADM, Raytheon, MasterCard, Auterion, CRH, TechMet, Argentem Creek, Boeing, D&M Holding, IBM, Shield AI, and the President of the American Chamber of Commerce, Andy Hunder.

“I want to thank the American business community present in Ukraine for creating and, perhaps most importantly, preserving jobs. Your presence sends signals and speaks to stability in Ukraine,” said the Head of State.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine values all the assistance provided by the United States and the bipartisan support. Stable relations with the U.S. are important for our country.

“Signals about risks of reduction or slowing down of assistance from the U.S. – I believe none of us are interested in that. Neither American nor Ukrainian business, because Patriot systems do not choose whom to protect in Ukraine from the Russian aggressor. Air defense systems and other protection save lives, opportunities, and production capacities for absolutely everyone,” the President stated.

Andy Hunder highlighted Ukraine’s resilience during the war and noted that 88 chamber members have relatives or loved ones serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He also reported that 53% of companies suffered damage to their facilities and offices as a result of Russian shelling.

“One of the things we always ask from the U.S. Government is to provide protection for American businesses operating here, including supplying missiles for the Patriot systems,” he said.

Meeting participants stressed the importance of continuing support and strengthening Ukraine’s air defense.

The President noted Ukraine’s interest in developing cooperation with the United States in the defense-industrial complex and economic partnership.

According to the Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, John Ginkel, the creation of the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund is a long-term investment in Ukraine’s independence and future.

“We know the road ahead will not be easy, but it is also full of opportunities. With bold leadership, a resilient private sector, and strong Ukrainian-American cooperation, Ukraine will emerge not just restored but as a thriving, independent state of growth and stability in the region,” he emphasized.

TechMet representative Volodymyr Ignashchenko emphasized that, if his company wins the relevant tender, it is ready not only to explore and extract lithium in Ukraine but also to build processing facilities.

Leonid Polupan, CEO of Microsoft Ukraine, noted that the company had a high level of cooperation with the Government even before the full-scale war began and is committed to close collaboration going forward in cybersecurity and the latest developments in artificial intelligence.

Joao Moura, COO of CRH, which operates three cement plants in Ukraine, said that, during the war, the company is investing in creating a modern terminal in Kyiv and a technical laboratory. He also noted the support from foreign investors by the Government.

Arthur Lesnikovskyi, CEO of Boeing Ukraine, stressed that the company’s office was recently damaged due to Russian shelling, but despite this, all employees continue working on projects. In particular, leaders of the defense division cooperate with Government representatives regarding opportunities to deepen technical cooperation.

Representatives of KBR and Shield AI shared their vision of developing cooperation with Ukraine in the defense sector.

Co-founder and CEO of Horizon Capital, Lenna Koszarny, on her part, highlighted the importance of improving the pension system and creating domestic capital markets. She also thanked for the adoption of the law on multiple citizenship.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the state will cooperate with American businesses to discuss and resolve all problematic issues.

Georgia:

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 2:12 PM

For the 117th day, Rustaveli Avenue is blocked in Georgia. 🇬🇪

Seven months of uninterrupted protests across 8+ cities. Georgia’s not giving up.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 1:52 PM

Renowned Georgian opera singer Paata Burchuladze says he’s received 34 fines for blocking roads during protests—totaling GEL 170,000 (~USD 60,000).

For context: The median monthly salary in Georgia is just USD 440.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 6:14 AM

🇮🇷 According to Iran’s embassy, Georgian Dream’s Deputy FM Alexander Khvtisiashvili visited the embassy in Tbilisi to express solidarity after the Israeli strike.

💬 He signed a condolence book honoring Iran’s “martyrs” and expressed sympathy, the embassy says.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 8:54 AM

Dear friends, fellas, we at Droa party are having a very tough time financially. Due to the current circumstances in Georgia, we have neither domestic, nor international funding.

Yet our unwavering team is instrumental in Georgia’s fight for liberation. 1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 3:57 PM

We hope in your support 🙏🏻

Thank you very much and hope I’ll be able to repay each and every single one of you with the same kindness.

PayPal:

paypal.me/tsetkhliolig…
2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 3:57 PM

NATO:

“Ukraine cannot manage without full support,” Rutte said, commenting on the halt in deliveries of critically important weapons to Ukraine from the United States.

At the same time, the NATO Secretary General emphasized that Europe intends to strengthen its support for Ukraine.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 11:37 AM

Rutte dismissed Lavrov’s claim that boosting NATO budgets would collapse the alliance, joking on Fox News that Lavrov’s been Russia’s FM “since the time of Jesus Christ” and hasn’t said “a single useful word” since, urging not to give him “too much attention.”
www.foxnews.com/video/637517…

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 1:11 PM

Latvia:

Latvia is sending a new batch of military aid to Ukraine.

It will include 42 Patria 6×6 armored personnel carriers, spare parts, weapons, and ammunition.

www.overtdefense.com/2025/02/06/l…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 9:17 AM

Germany:

“The supply of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine “has been and remains an option”: Ukrainian troops must undergo training, and this has not yet been discussed.” – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 4:35 AM

Yesterday was the best day to begin that discussion. Today was the next best day. Or you can continue to do your Hamlet impersonation on Germany news shows.

Back to Ukraine.

“Russian terrorists can launch up to 500 attack UAVs at once, but not on a daily basis.” – Kyrylo Budanov.

In a comment to Ukrainian media, the head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine also confirmed that the Russians are continuously improving their drones.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 7:35 AM

In 2024, Frontelligence Insight, after long debates, talks with other analysts, and a detailed review of Russian documents, economic data, production, and payments, concluded that Russia will likely pursue a ceasefire by late 2025 or early 2026. Yet Trump’s policies have encouraged Putin to continue

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 7:47 PM

This isn’t an excuse for a potentially incorrect analysis, but the Trump administration’s signals are undeniably encouraging for the Kremlin, which sees Ukraine’s survival as entirely dependent on US support, and believes it can “finish the job” once the US is out of the picture.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 7:49 PM

Fog and friction.

5,438 drones. 230 missiles.
Just in June.

russia’s war isn’t slowing down — it’s escalating dramatically.

And we’re now hearing “peace through strength” buzzing over our heads every single night.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 1:47 PM

A new geopolitical reality in which Ukraine and Europe need to survive.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 12:53 PM

Just hours apart, we got the news that the U.S. will withhold air defense missiles and shells it had previously promised Ukraine. And the news that we’re expecting 30,000 North Korean troops to assist Russia on the battlefield.

Ukraine’s support is fading. Russia is getting more of it.

1/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 12:25 PM

I’m expected to be polite. Nice. Tamed. Because technically, my anger won’t help us. It won’t convince more people or governments to support Ukraine.

But know this: war comes when you least expect it. We didn’t believe it would come for us. There was no point in it, but it came.

2/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 12:25 PM

And at this rate, it will come for you too. Unexpected and surrially cruel. And you’ll know you could have prevented it by supporting us
when it mattered.

3/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 12:25 PM

This is the only formal summoning of the top U.S. diplomat in Ukraine by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry that I know of or can recall.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 7:39 AM

The Trump administration, by cutting supplies of air defense ammunition to democratic Ukraine at the very time fascist Russia is increasing air attacks on Ukrainian civilians, gives every appearance of working in tandem with the Kremlin.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 4:08 AM

The media reports that the US withheld badly needed ballistic interceptors meant for Ukraine. If Ukraine is left w/o air defences, russia will wipe out entire big cities w/ ballistics. Tens of millions will flee to Europe by winter. It’s in Europe’s best interest to provide SkyShield for Ukraine.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 3:53 AM

Same day

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 2:39 AM

Switchblade 600 strikes on Russian armored vehicles

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 11:50 AM

GBU39 air strike on Russian underground positions by MiG-29. t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 10:06 AM

Odesa:

Odesa right now, following yet another Russian strike on residential building ‼️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 9:51 PM

🇺🇦🎾 Wow! Dayana Yastremska caused a sensation at Wimbledon!
The Ukrainian tennis player from Odesa defeated the world’s second-ranked player, Coco Gauff, in two sets, 7:6, 6:1.
For Dayana, this is one of the most notable victories of her career. Bravo! 🔥

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 2:56 PM

🇺🇦⚡️ Boom! Dayana Yastremska knocks out Coco Gauff in the first round of Wimbledon.
The Ukrainian (#42 WTA) sensationally defeated the world’s second-ranked player in two sets — 7:6(7:3), 6:1 — and will now face Russia’s Zakharova (#95).

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 2:56 PM

Kherson:

Kherson. A hospital. Russia shelled it with artillery today.

5 patients and 3 nurses were injured.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 9:09 AM

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv endured a record number of attacks in June since the start of the russian full-scale invasion, with 142 shelling incidents, according to Mayor Terekhov.

The city was hit by missiles, drones, and aerial bombs.

These attacks resulted in 15 deaths and over 150 injuries, including 25 children.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 7:30 AM

Kyiv:

FUCKING EXPLOSIONS IN KYIV

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 4:02 PM

AND WE DONT HAVE AIR DEFENSE MISSILES

THANK YOU USA

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 4:03 PM

Russian occupied Crimea:

🛰️Satelite imagery of the Russian Kirovskiy military airbase in Crimea. After the Ukrainian strikes on Russian helicopters on 26.06.2025.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 3:21 AM

There are also reports that the Ukrainians were able to successfully target – read that as killed/eliminate – the commander of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in a strike on Russian occupied Crimea. I still haven’t seen official confirmation yet.

Nikopol:

The Russians have brought their human safari tactic to Nikopol. I’ve seen the videos, I’m not posting them. Four were injured, including a sixty-five year old man who is in serious condition.

Izhevsk:

Satellite image from Izhevsk 🤩💥

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 9:55 AM

Satellite images showing the aftermath of the attack on the Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant “Kupol” have appeared online. Part of the roof of one of the military factory buildings has been completely destroyed.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 2:08 PM

Russian media report that as a result of the attack on the “Kupol” plant in Izhevsk, four drone production workshops were damaged at once. These workshops operated around the clock, assembling finished drones, processing metals, and soldering microchips. A fire and roof collapse were recorded.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 11:03 AM

Moscow:

In Moscow, a car carrying an 80-year-old veteran of the Soviet KGB was blown up, according to Russian media.

The explosion destroyed two vehicles, one of which the veteran was in. He was pulled from the burning car by his daughter, who also served in Russia’s security services.

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— SAINT JAVELIN (@saintjavelin.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 11:37 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Ukrainian badass.

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— The Spirit of Lorenzo the Cat (@lorenzothecat.bsky.social) June 26, 2025 at 7:20 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,224: Make It Hot!Post + Comments (23)

GOP Venality Update: If Only the Tenterhooks Were Actual

by Anne Laurie| July 2, 202510:15 pm| 43 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., GOP Death Cult, Open Threads, Trumpery

(Tenterhooks, the original)

There are four GOP votes against the rule for the tax bill right now. They can only afford three.
DRAMA.
Four defections:
SPARTZ
CLYDE
FITZPATRICK
SELF

— Steven T. Dennis (@steventdennis.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 9:54 PM

===

Reminder: Leadership can keep a vote open until they flip a vote.

— Steven T. Dennis (@steventdennis.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 9:55 PM

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She flipped before at Trump’s urging (he called and yelled at her). I assume this is a tantrum to satiate her before she flips.

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— Clean Observer (@hammbear2024.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 9:55 PM

===

Mike Johnson: "We are going to deliver the big beautiful bill"

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) July 2, 2025 at 9:49 PM

===

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GOP Venality Update: If Only the Tenterhooks Were ActualPost + Comments (43)

Open Thread: GOP Drama Llamas Every One

by Anne Laurie| July 2, 20252:52 pm| 237 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Stupidity, Republican Venality

12? That seems significant, and I'd bet on Fox News actually having the whip count right.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 10:37 AM

—-

Also, notable that Harris got on Newsmax or similar today and said "yeah 4th of July isn't probably happening"
I guess I'll currently believe it when I see it – I expect Johnson to jam his caucus and them to fold.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 10:39 AM

===

HOUSE UPDATE: The procedural vote to advance the Senate-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act is stuck at 204-212 and is being kept open.
16 Republicans haven't voted.
Democrats have full attendance (something they've struggled with all year) and are unanimously voting no.

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— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 1:54 PM

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A bunch of House Republican holdouts just voted yes. They have the votes to move forward. Again, this is just the procedural vote, not on passage of the bill.

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 2:09 PM

===

MEANWHILE: House Freedom Caucus leaders are circulating this document torching the Senate-passed "big beautiful bill." They say it increases deficits and contains insufficient clean energy cuts, inadequate Medicaid rules, "excessive port for Alaska and Hawaii," among other grievances.

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— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur.bsky.social) July 2, 2025 at 1:00 PM

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Thanks to Senate Republicans, 17 million people will lose their health care.
Thanks to Senate Republicans, three million Americans, including veterans and seniors, will lose food assistance.
Thanks to Senate Republicans, families will see their energy bills go up by $400 a year.

— Kamala Harris (@kamalaharris.com) July 1, 2025 at 2:16 PM

—

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Senate Republicans are doing all of this and more — hurting working people across our nation — in order to pay for $1 trillion in tax cuts for billionaires.
There is still time to stop this bill before it passes in the House. Call 202-224-3121 and tell your representative to vote no.

— Kamala Harris (@kamalaharris.com) July 1, 2025 at 2:16 PM

===

Jeffries is now naming and shaming House Republicans in swing districts and citing figures of how many of their constituents will lose healthcare and food assistance

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) July 2, 2025 at 10:25 AM

===

I think some people might be a bit confused at my optimism in terms of the fallout of the murder bill and I simply cannot emphasize enough how the people whose lives most depend on the infrastructure this bill specifically is gutting voted for Trump by like 30 points.

— the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) (@merovingians.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 9:39 PM

and it’s not a ‘my life gets shittier’ thing, it’s a ‘rural hospitals closing is a death sentence for entire communities’ thing

like it’s grim as hell and there are certainly Dem voters in the firing line here but statistically Evil BBB is taking Obama-Trump voters and feeding them through a woodchipper

rural and exurban life is not sustainable. it has persisted despite the decimation of the industry that put people out there in the first place because when you got sick there was a hospital depending on medicaid cost sharing. as the population grows older, this of course only gets worse

yeah we don't need the car dealership owners to turn on him and more importantly, the GOP (there will be a LOT of Good Tsar Bad Boyars in the next decade), we need their customers living under their little fiefdom bsky.app/profile/jake…

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— the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) (@merovingians.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 9:46 PM

for those lacking basic reading comprehension including certain hack journalists: bsky.app/profile/mero…

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— the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) (@merovingians.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 11:39 PM

===

trumpism as peronism but only because he seems himself as evita

— QuoProQuid (@quoproquid.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 5:28 PM

Open Thread: GOP Drama Llamas Every OnePost + Comments (237)

At Least Some Living Things Like the Heat, Though I Am Not One of Them

by WaterGirl| July 2, 202512:21 pm| 63 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Something Good Open Thread

I don’t think I’ve mentioned the new patio I had put in on the side of the house. The old patio had the original cement rectangular bricks from the 1940s or 50s, and they were not only ugly but also an accident waiting to happen.

So we started the patio in the fall, didn’t finish before mid-December, so picked it up again in the Spring. Finished during the same weeks I was having the floor redone. Pro-tip: for maximum stress and disruption, always be sure to have two major house projects going at the same time.

Anyway, here are some pics of the new patio and of some of the green growing things that now live on the patio. In no particular order…

Zucchini & cucumber on the left, spicy peppers and tomatoes are on the right.

The photos above are of the patio behind the gate.

The ones below are the patio toward the front of the house, in front of the gate.
The bleeding heart vine above is happier than the one below, but that one is coming along, too! The top one gets more sun.

Totally open thread.

At Least Some Living Things Like the Heat, Though I Am Not One of ThemPost + Comments (63)

So Much Truth That I Teared Up Watching It

by WaterGirl| July 1, 202510:24 pm| 178 Comments

This post is in: Grieving for Our Country, Open Threads

Southern Men and the Politics of Freedom

Do yourself a favor and watch this video.

EVEN IF YOU FUCKING HATE WATCHING VIDEOS.

The video won’t embed, so the image below is just a screen capture, and the link to the video is below that.

This might be the best thing I’ve seen all year.

As you can see by the stats on the right in the image above, I’m not the only one who thinks so.

Southern Men and the Politics of Freedom

Click the link and watch it, and tell us what you think?

*big thanks to the person who sent it to me. I would thank them by name but I don’t have a nym, only a name. So please out yourself in the comments so I can give you the hat tip you deserve!

h/t Craig

So Much Truth That I Teared Up Watching ItPost + Comments (178)

War for Ukraine Day 1,223: Genteel Isolationism

by Adam L Silverman| July 1, 20258:33 pm| 12 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

I’ve written several times in updates over the past six months that there’s a disconnect between the hyper-aggression of Hegseth and the genteel isolationism of the people chosen to staff the senior positions at the Pentagon, as well as the people chosen for those senior positions.

The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine- Politico

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 5:04 PM

While three of these folks are gone, including the person who ran the DOD transition, because of what appears to be a made up scandal orchestrated by an incompetent staffer and the SecDef’s personal attorney who the former directly commissioned as a Navy commander, those who have been confirmed for the senior positions or who are in acting senior positions come from the Koch funded portion of the natsec world and are genteel isolationists. What is surprising is that Hegseth came from that world too.

A vastly reduced U.S. presence in the Middle East has been quietly involved in the transition process at the Defense Department, according to four people familiar with the matter, underscoring a distinct ideological shift in the Pentagon as President Donald Trump builds his new administration.

Dan Caldwell, an Iraq War veteran and defense policy advisor with deep ties to the Koch network, has been working behind the scenes to help shape personnel decisions at the Defense Department, sources told Jewish Insider on Wednesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address a sensitive topic.

Recent hiring announcements for key positions have reflected Caldwell’s preference for a more restrained foreign policy approach that would have the U.S. scale back its long-standing focus on the Middle East and regional adversaries such as Iran, while expressing a largely skeptical attitude toward Israel, among other views espoused by a growing isolationist wing of the GOP.

In addition to DiMino, another ally of Caldwell’s, Elbridge Colby, has been tapped as undersecretary of defense for policy — even as his sanguine view of Iran and its nuclear ambitions, which he sees as a less urgent threat to American interests than China, has long been a source of contention in Republican foreign policy circles.

More at the link, though it’s all Israel focused.

Here’s what’s not being sent:

Trump behaving exactly like a Russian agent again. This decision aids fascist Russia and will result in more dead civilians in democratic Ukraine. The Trump administration and its supporters will have more Ukrainian blood on their hands.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 7:02 PM

There’s two related dynamics here. The first, as I’ve hammered over and over and over again for the past three years is that the US defense industrial base has not been put on a war footing. Meaning that everything that we send to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, or anyone else or that we’ve used in Yemen or Iran or parts of Africa is being replaced at a business as usual pace. Which means stocks have dwindled and replacements are not being produced fast enough. This combines with the second dynamic: the genteel isolationism of Colby. The Undersecretary of Defense has immense power within the building. The unwillingness and inability of the Biden administration to put the Defense Industrial Base on a war footing has given Colby the opening and the excuse to do what he’s doing.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

We Have Clear Evidence – Confirmed by Partners – That Sanctions Are Truly Painful for Russia – Address by the President

1 July 2025 – 21:05

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, the entire day was spent clearing the rubble after the strike on Huliaipole. Tragically, there are casualties – both military and civilian. Colonel Zakharevych, the commander of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, as well as other men from the brigade were killed. My condolences to all their families and loved ones. A full investigation into the circumstances of this strike is ongoing – I am awaiting a report. Everyone who was wounded – and this was a missile strike – is receiving the necessary assistance. More than 30 people were wounded. We will definitely retaliate against the Russians for this strike.

Many different meetings took place today – mainly preparatory meetings. We are getting ready for upcoming meetings in Europe, particularly in Denmark, as well as meetings with other partners of ours. One of the key topics will be weapons production – our joint investments, our joint projects. Today marks the beginning of a new Presidency of the Council of the EU – the Danish Presidency. It is important for us that this period – the next six months – be truly productive in terms of security issues, including for the defense industry, and in terms of sanctions – so that all pressure on Russia truly works, and does so in a way that brings this war to an end and genuinely limits Russia’s potential for aggression. We have clear evidence – confirmed by our partners – that sanctions are truly painful for Russia. And if pressure keeps growing, it will push Russia to think beyond the front and hatred of its neighbors.

Today, I spoke with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. I thanked him for supporting Ukraine, our independence and territorial integrity. I also expressed our full support and solidarity with Azerbaijan. Right now, Russia is fomenting a new campaign of hostility against its neighbors, and after the brutal killing of two people from the Azerbaijani community in Russia, it is even threatening the Azerbaijani state. All our partners must view this in the same way – not as a threat to one country, but as a threat to everyone – to all those neighboring Russia. By killing some and humiliating others, Russia is trying to intimidate and subjugate everyone. This must be stopped. There must be sufficient protection for the lives of every nation, and absolute respect for human dignity.

And a few more things.

Ukraine continues to fight for justice – for the just punishment of Russia for its crime of aggression against our state and our people. And for fair accountability for all those who have personally chosen Russia over a peaceful and normal life. Today, I signed the documents to submit our agreement with the Council of Europe on the establishment of the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression for ratification. And we must clearly define the timeline – the specific deadlines – for when all procedural steps required to launch the Tribunal will be completed, and when the Tribunal will actually begin its work. I expect a report on this from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the legal team of the Presidential Office immediately after the agreement on the Tribunal is ratified.

We are also continuing our work on the Ukrainian sanctions track – new decisions of the National Security and Defense Council on sanctions will be made soon. The relevant materials are already being prepared.

Today, I also signed a decree to honor our warriors with state awards – such decrees are issued almost daily, and this time it’s a rather large one. It includes 414 defenders, the majority of whom – 354 warriors – are from the National Guard of Ukraine. Among them are Azov fighters, defenders of Mariupol, and men we brought back from Russian captivity. We continue working to secure the release of all our people – every warrior, every civilian, every adult and child still held in Russian captivity. I thank everyone who is helping us! I thank all our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 216 of #GeorgiaProtests

📷 MOSE

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 3:06 PM

For the 216th consecutive day, Rustaveli Avenue is blocked. ✅

Protests continue in 8+ cities in Georgia.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 2:12 PM

If we have any chance at all (and I believe in our victory) non-compliance and non-cooperation is the only way.

They cannot imprison us all, they just hope to intimidate us into inaction sooner than they crack.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 2:34 AM

JUST IN: the regime court sentences democratic leader Nika Gvaramia of Coalition for Change to 8 months in jail. He is already in a pre-trial detention.

It is noteworthy that he has more cases to be launched against him, prolonging his sentence. Just like in case of others.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 3:17 AM

Georgia’s Western partners should realize that we are currently in the process of building a civic nation, and that it might not always be a straightforward process within the resistance.

We are shedding centuries of enslavement. 1/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 4:59 AM

But we are all united in our requests from the West – most importantly, calls for new, free & fair elections & targeted sanctions which are already working.

And all their timely, targeted actions help us avoid whatever costs can be avoided in this fight, including the cost of human suffering. 2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 4:59 AM

Terrorizing everyone with fines worth 4x national median monthly income over a single act of protest didn’t stop people, so the regime’s new “law” implies administrative imprisonment for a repeated “offense.”

Which basically means you’ll be jailed if you protest twice.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 5:25 AM

Georgians gather to express gratitude to Vano Nadiradze at his funeral. Vano fought in Ukraine for our common freedom for more than 10 years and succumbed to a heart attack.

The Russian regime refused to bury him with military honours.

📷 Lado Nafetvaridze

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 6:27 AM

👇🏻

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 7:00 AM

The US:

Of course Lukashenko lied. Who would have thought?

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 4:32 PM

France:

Ukrainian media report Macron called Zelensky after speaking with Putin.

Their conversation was constructive, and Macron shared details of his talk with the Russian leader.

However, the Kremlin’s stance remains unchanged – Putin still shows no intention of ending the war.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 3:34 PM

Canada:

Today is Canada Day!

Ah, for just one time I would take the Northwest Passage…

Back to Ukraine.

The russians executed a Ukrainian soldier by tying him to a motorcycle and dragging him along the road.

There’s a video of it circulating online, which I will not share.

There are hundreds of such cases. Happen over and over again because russians never face consequences for their actions

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 8:24 AM

“I told my fellows: I’ll believe I’m truly back in Ukraine… when I get a pack of cigarettes that says ‘Smoking kills’ in Ukrainian,” former POW Volodymyr Zhylenko, 44, told Hromadske.

Two weeks have passed since his release. He’s gained 5 kg (having lost over 30 in captivity).

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 8:34 AM

Now Volodymyr savors every single moment of freedom. He spent 808 days in russian captivity and now doctors fight to save his right hand.

The photos portray Volodymyr before and after russian captivity.

Be the voice of Ukrainian prisoners of war!
Be the voice of justice.

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 8:36 AM

Ukrainian drone strikes in Izhevsk: Russia’s arms heart, and Luhansk using rocket-drone “Peklo” demonstrates Kyiv’s growing technological abilities. The message to Putin is clear: Ukraine’s strike range and warhead size will only continue to expand as the war continues:

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 5:42 AM

2/ Air defense drones are emerging as a promising counter to Russia’s expanding Shahed (Geran) drone output – no longer just a concept, but an increasingly likely solution that could help offset Moscow’s production surge with scalable and relatively cheap response

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 5:42 AM

3/ Russia’s consistent failure to break Ukrainian front, despite a manpower edge, and mounting economic issues, admitted even by Putin, nullify their bravado shown during the latest Istanbul. Achieving Moscow’s stated goals would require far more resources than it’s deploying

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 5:42 AM

Interception of the Russian FPV by a drone with an installed net launcher t.me/wunderfpv/486

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 6:19 PM

According to Russian sources, no fewer than eight Russian regions were attacked last night, with at least several dozen drones used in the strikes.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 4:55 AM

Kharkiv:

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️ the city is under russian drone attack right now ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 8:05 PM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

HUR blew up railway tracks in the Zaporizhia region and stopped a Russian train.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 5:59 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

HUR attacks valuable Russian military equipment in Crimea.

The video shows strikes on a Pantsir-S1 air defense system, a 9S19 “Imbir” radar, a Niobium-SV radar, a Pechora-3 coastal radar, a Protivnik-GE radar, as well as a Russian military airbase in Saky.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 2:48 AM

Somewhere in southern Ukraine:

Aviation continues to operate in all directions. A MiG-29, using a GBU-39 bomb, destroyed an enemy UAV crew position in the south.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 4:09 PM

Izhevsk, Russia:

Izhevsk, russia. Morning buzz.

When you start a war, war comes to you.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 8:30 AM

Nizhny Novgorod, Russia:

🚨 Important Update: A Russian Su-34, not a Su-27, military jet has crashed in the Nizhny Novgorod region, as reported by the Russian Defense Ministry. This marks up to six Russian Su-34 losses over the past week.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 9:16 AM

/2. One of the pilots of the Russian Su-34 that crashed this morning has died from his injuries.

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 1, 2025 at 11:05 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

” I still can’t believe it. And I think she can’t either.”

#Ukrainian border guard Denys recently returned from Russian captivity. He was reunited with his dog Jilly, who was rescued from occupation. They hadn’t seen each other for more than three years.

📹: Radio Liberty

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) June 30, 2025 at 2:14 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,223: Genteel IsolationismPost + Comments (12)

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Hey hey, RFK, how many kids did you kill today?

We can show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

We will not go back.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Thursday Morning Open Thread

War for Ukraine Day 1,224: Make It Hot!

Currently, at the Working Level, Ukraine and the U.S. Are Clarifying All the Details of the Defense Support – Address by the President

Volodymyr Zelenskyy Meets with Representatives of American Business in Ukraine

GOP Venality Update: If Only the Tenterhooks Were Actual

Open Thread: GOP Drama Llamas Every One

At Least Some Living Things Like the Heat, Though I Am Not One of Them

So Much Truth That I Teared Up Watching It

Southern Men and the Politics of Freedom

War for Ukraine Day 1,223: Genteel Isolationism

We Have Clear Evidence – Confirmed by Partners – That Sanctions Are Truly Painful for Russia – Address by the President