In the Coming Days, Very Significant Meetings May Take Place That Should Bring Us Closer to Silence for Ukraine – Address by the President

25 April 2025 – 21:06

Dear Ukrainians!

I have just held a Staff meeting. Today, there was also a separate report from the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. The top priority today is air defense. Securing air defense systems for Ukraine, and missile supplies for them. Our agreements with our partners. Contracts. Our readiness to produce air defense systems in Ukraine, and negotiations regarding licensing. There were reports from the military and government officials.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been tasked with specific responsibilities. We will seek to reach a corresponding agreement with the United States as well — an agreement on Patriots for Ukraine. We are ready to purchase the necessary number of Patriot systems for our country. This is not about charity. We have proposed concrete deal options to protect our people. I have instructed our diplomats to work more actively toward a response on Patriots.

Today, together with diplomatic representatives of the states and international organizations operating in Ukraine, we visited the site of the ballistic missile strike in Kyiv. The very place where the explosion of the missile claimed the lives of 12 of our people. My sincere condolences. Ordinary apartment buildings were destroyed. The rescue operation was completed only recently. More than 50 embassy representatives were present at the site, along with 11 representatives of international organizations. Together, we honored the memory of the fallen. All the diplomats saw with their own eyes whom Russia is targeting with its ballistic missiles. Ballistic missiles they are receiving from North Korea. I am grateful to all the states that stand with Ukraine in such circumstances, in such moments: Europe, Latin America, Africa, Asia, Australia and the Pacific region, North America — I want to thank all our partners for their support at this time. I also thank all the international organizations that are helping us, that are helping our state and supporting Ukrainians. And I want to express separate gratitude to all journalists — both Ukrainian and foreign, every blogger, podcaster, everyone who is spreading the truth around the world about what is happening here in Ukraine, and about how much we need peace.

In the coming days, very significant meetings may take place — meetings that should bring us closer to silence for Ukraine. An unconditional ceasefire is needed. Real pressure on Russia is needed so that they accept either the American proposal to cease fire and move towards peace, or our proposal — whichever one can truly work and ensure a reliable, immediate, and unconditional ceasefire, and then — a dignified peace and security guarantees. Diplomacy must succeed. And we are doing everything to make diplomacy truly meaningful and finally effective. Finally.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

On the 149th consecutive day, Rustaveli avenue is blocked.

Here, we read out the names of our 50+ political prisoners and, as always, express solidarity with Ukraine. 🇬🇪🇺🇦

Keep an eye on us for a big rally tomorrow for the 150th day of daily protests.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 2:03 PM

1/ Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association (GYLA) reports that during their monitoring, 10 protesters detained on criminal charges said they were mistreated—either during transport or at the police station.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 6:01 AM

2/ Those who reported this include: Saba Skhvitaridze, Revaz Kiknadze, Nikoloz Katsia, Anatoli Gigauri, Davit Khomeriki, Davit Lomidze, Temur Zasokhashvili, Archil Museliani, Anastasia Zinovkina, and Mzia Amaghlobeli.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 6:01 AM

3/ Context: On November 28, 2024, Georgian Dream announced its decision to suspend Georgia’s EU accession process until 2028.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 6:01 AM

4/ A few hours later, tens of thousands of people gathered in front of the parliament building to protest. In response, the police forcibly dispersed the protest and brutally beat dozens of demonstrators. Some required medical treatment and remained in the hospital for days.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 6:01 AM

5/ In the following days, even more people took to the streets. They were protesting not only the Georgian Dream’s decision but also the physical violence against civilians and the disproportionate use of force by the state.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 6:01 AM

6/ The protests and clashes between the police and demonstrators intensified over several days. Soon after, the police began arresting protesters, not just at the demonstrations, but also in the streets and in their homes.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 6:01 AM

🟥Irakli Garibashvili said he will continue his work in the private sector. He also did not rule out a return to politics.

🗣️“I remain a loyal soldier of both Mr. Bidzina Ivanishvili’s team and our country,” Garibashvili said.

🧷 netgazeti.ge/news/772218/

#Georgia #GeorgiaProtests

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) April 25, 2025 at 4:29 AM

1/ Irakli Garibashvili, Chairman of Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party, resigned from politics today, citing his belief that he is no longer fit for the role. The move comes amid rumors of a rift with GD founder Bidzina Ivanishvili. #GeorgiaProtests

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— 64 Project (@64project.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 4:30 AM

2/ In a lengthy speech, Garibashvili thanked Ivanishvili, reaffirming his loyalty to him and GD. He stated he had done all he could, claiming the party is “stronger than ever,” despite Georgia’s ongoing political crisis following the disputed October 2024 elections.

— 64 Project (@64project.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 4:30 AM

3/ Garibashvili, a long-time Ivanishvili ally since before entering politics, served as Prime Minister twice (2013–2015, 2021–2023) and as Defense Minister in between. Ivanishvili once said Garibashvili “never needs to be told anything twice,” reflecting his deep loyalty.

— 64 Project (@64project.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 4:30 AM

4/ However, after GD’s post-election fallout and U.S. sanctions on Ivanishvili in December 2024, Garibashvili appeared to distance himself. Sources suggest he may have been protecting his son, who studies at Princeton University in the U.S., from potential repercussions.

— 64 Project (@64project.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 4:30 AM

5/ Rumors indicate Garibashvili’s lack of sanctions—while Baltic States and the U.S. have targeted most of Ivanishvili’s inner circle—caused tensions within GD. Ivanishvili, known for his mistrust, reportedly grew wary, fueling speculation of internal conflict.

— 64 Project (@64project.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 4:30 AM

6/ Garibashvili’s exit marks another shake-up in GD amid a deepening crisis. Protests, ongoing since October 2024, demand new elections. The party faces growing international pressure over democratic backsliding.

— 64 Project (@64project.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 4:30 AM

Georgian politics just lost a giant. I don’t know how we survive this blow.

But for real, some interesting stuff on likely inner discord in the dictator’s circle, and what it has to do with international sanctions👇🏻

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 5:04 AM

‪On December 11, 2024, when crackdowns and clashes were raging, Garibashvili got hospitalized over arm injuries. It was rumoured that he was beaten by other Georgian Dream representatives while the party maintained he sustained injuries during a workout.‬

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 5:39 AM

The US:

I think Russia and Ukraine are moving forward, but the situation is very fragile, – Trump

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 9:37 AM

Trump complains Ukraine, headed by Zelenskyy, has delayed signing a critical rare earth metals deal with the US for three weeks. “We hope the deal is signed IMMEDIATELY. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are moving smoothly, success seems near!”

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM

I will remind everyone that there is no deal to sign.

Trump: “Crimea will stay with Russia.”

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 25, 2025 at 7:09 PM

The throughline as always is Trump refuses to criticize Putin

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 25, 2025 at 7:08 PM

Trump says the cause of Russia’s war on Ukraine was Ukrainian interest in joining NATO (and not Putin’s invasion)

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 25, 2025 at 7:06 PM

Steve Witkoff met with Putin for 3 hours. “This conversation allowed Russia and the US to bring their positions closer together not just on Ukraine, but on a number of other international issues as well,” said Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser. w/ @maxseddon.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4jQztBI

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) April 25, 2025 at 12:35 PM

From The Financial Times:

Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, met Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday amid the White House’s faltering efforts to broker an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Witkoff met the Russian president for the fourth time this year as part of Washington’s attempt to rebuild relations with Moscow.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, told reporters the three-hour meeting in the Kremlin was “constructive and very useful”, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.

“This conversation allowed Russia and the US to bring their positions closer together not just on Ukraine, but on a number of other international issues as well,” he said.

Ushakov said the US and Russia discussed resuming direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv, which have not taken place beyond back channels since the war’s early months.

Ukraine, however, has resisted US pressure to accept a peace deal that legitimises Moscow’s territorial conquests. It says ongoing Russian attacks show the Kremlin is not serious about negotiating, more than three years after Putin ordered the full-scale invasion.

In eastern Ukraine, a Russian drone attack on the city of Pavlohrad overnight killed three people and injured 10 others when one hit an apartment building. An elderly father and his son were killed in the nearby village of Yarova, when a Russian 250kg guided aerial bomb crashed into their home.

In Moscow, a senior Russian military officer was assassinated on Friday morning as Witkoff’s plane approached the capital. Officials said Yaroslav Moskalik, the deputy head of the Russian general staff’s main operations directorate, was killed in a car bombing outside a residential building in Balashikha, an eastern suburb of Moscow.

More at the link.

The son of the deputy head of the CIA was killed in Ukraine while fighting in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces. He believed Putin’s speeches and signed a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry.

Full article: storage.googleapis.com/istories/en/…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 8:01 AM

From Meduza:

Michael Gloss, an American citizen and the son of CIA Deputy Director for Digital Innovation Juliane Gallina Gloss, was killed in Ukraine while fighting in the Russian military last year, the independent outlet iStories reported on Friday. He was 21 years old. Gloss’s father, Larry Gloss, is a U.S. Navy veteran and head of Security Information Systems, a company that develops software for the U.S. Department of Defense. Meduza shares an English-language summary of Gloss’s story.

Michael Gloss joined the Russian army in 2023 after spending several months traveling around the world. According to iStories, he left the U.S. no later than the winter of 2023, dropping out of college. He moved to Italy, then traveled to Israel before being deported. He spent the next few months in Turkey, attending a gathering of the counter-culture group Rainbow Family of Living Light and volunteering in Hatay Province to help with earthquake relief.

A friend of Gloss’s who hosted him in Istanbul told iStories that he “was always talking about doom and gloom — poverty, the collapse of civilizations.” According to the friend, Gloss “was convinced that Western hegemony was coming to an end and that BRICS would take its place.” Another acquaintance in Turkey recalled that Gloss had been watching videos about Palestine and “was very angry” at the United States. “He started thinking about going to Russia. He wanted to fight against the U.S. But I think those conspiracy theory videos really got to him,” the friend said.

Gloss arrived in Russia in August 2023. Before obtaining a visa, he asked people he knew to help him get an official invitation to enter the country. He gave different people varying reasons for the trip, including that he wanted to learn Russian, that he planned to apply for citizenship, and that he had an environmental project he wanted to pursue. According to border control records reviewed by the publication, he crossed into Russia from Georgia on August 12.

Over the next month, Gloss traveled to Vladikavkaz, Taganrog, Volgograd, and Moscow. On September 1, he said his visa would expire in a week, and by September 3, he was looking for places to stay in Vienna and Bratislava. But two days later, on September 5, his name appeared in Russia’s unified military registration system. The address listed was a military enlistment office on Yablochkova Street in Moscow, and his “residence” was listed as medical exam room 302. According to iStories, this address has been previously used by foreigners coming to Moscow to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry to fight in the war.

In the days that followed, Gloss appeared at the Avangard training center in the Moscow region, according to photos taken at the time. Around then, he created a profile on VKontakte under the name Hamza Ali and joined several groups, including “The Romance of Russian Villages” and “We Are Here from the USSR.” He also shared a video titled “Putin calls for the creation of an independent Palestine,” as well as footage from Israel, accusing Israeli troops of “firing on Israeli civilians” in Kibbutz Be’eri on October 7, 2023.

After two weeks of training, Gloss’s group — mostly made up of Nepali citizens — was transported by bus to a military unit. He was assigned to the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment (Unit No. 41450) based in Ryazan, iStories found. One of his fellow soldiers said that Gloss “had his own ideas about how he could be useful on the front.” “He studied construction and engineering in college, so all his thoughts were about inventions and innovations,” the soldier said. Gloss was deployed to the front in December 2023. “If I’m not mistaken, after training he was sent to an assault unit,” the soldier added. At the time, the 137th Regiment was operating northwest of Soledar in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

Michael Gloss was killed on April 4, 2024 according to an obituary published by his family, which did not mention that his death occurred in Ukraine. That same day, a Telegram channel linked to the 106th Airborne Division — which the Ryazan regiment belongs to — reported that the unit was carrying out an offensive near the villages of Rozdolivka and Vesele in the Donetsk region. The exact circumstances of Gloss’s death remain unknown. His funeral took place in the U.S. eight months later, on December 21, 2024. A friend of Gloss’s from the Rainbow Family gathering said she spoke with his sister, who told her the Russian authorities had contacted the family and informed them that Gloss had died in Ukraine.

According to a member of the Rainbow Family, Gloss said he joined the Russian army to obtain citizenship, not to fight. A fellow soldier from his unit in Ryazan said Gloss “was a passionate supporter of Russia and loved it,” but that during the war, “he had no intention of picking up a weapon.” None of Gloss’s family members responded to iStories’s request for comment.

I’m sorry, what now?

Back to Ukraine.

I hadn’t realised there was a former Tory MP serving in Ukraine’s armed forces.
www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 4:41 PM

From The Times:

Ukraine will not have a “stitch-up deal” forced upon it and its armed forces are prepared to carry on fighting without US backing, according to a British former MP turned soldier in Ukraine’s military.

Jack Lopresti, who is serving in the International Legion’s military intelligence unit as well as in a liaison role helping with weapons procurement, said Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal amounted to “appeasement” of a dictator.

On a brief visit to London, he said that Ukraine could continue to fight without US equipment as long as Britain and Europe ramped up their military support.

He said: “They are not going to put up with having a stitch-up deal forced upon them. They are prepared to fight and carry on fighting. The morale is incredibly high; it’s astonishing.

“They are fighting for their existence, for their survival, and they are not going to give up any time soon, even if America withdraws.”

Washington’s proposal is to recognise the Russian annexation of Crimea and Russia’s conquest of a fifth of Ukraine’s territory in the east. Kyiv must also accept that membership of Nato is ruled out indefinitely, and hand over immediate control of Ukraine’s rare earth resources, as well as its oil and gas industries, to a joint fund from which America could profit.

Trump’s administration has already threatened to remove itself from the discussions if the two sides do not agree, raising fears US support for Ukraine could be pulled altogether.

“It’s been our worst nightmare what has transpired,” Lopresti said, wearing a fleece inscribed with “freedom can’t be stopped” in Ukrainian. “I think the deal is pretty disgusting, it’s appeasement.

“It basically says if you are a dictator and you take land and you kill people and commit war crimes and kidnap over 20,000 children, as long as you stay put, eventually you will get something and then you can come back for more.”

Lopresti, 55, a father-of-four, spoke to The Times after coming off the phone to friends in Kyiv. He had called them to check they were safe after a deadly Russian missile and drone attack on Wednesday night.

He travelled to Ukraine early this year to join Ukraine’s equivalent of the Foreign Legion after losing his parliamentary seat in July last year.

More at the link.

Kharkiv:

Russian drone strikes on Kharkiv last night destroyed a civilian enterprise and damaged dozens of homes

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 5:23 AM

Kharkiv after last night’s russian drone attack on the city

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 11:10 AM

Pavlohrad, Dnipretrovsk Oblast:

Pavlohrad. Russia struck an apartment building, killing at least 3 people and injuring 14 others, including 3 children.

It turns out “Vladimir, STOP” isn’t working. What now?

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 5:28 AM

In Pavlohrad, Russians killed a miner named Oleksiy and his 15-year-old daughter, Valeria, when a drone struck their building.

Valeria’s mother is currently in critical condition, and doctors are fighting to save her life.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 3:50 PM

The family had moved to the city from the Donetsk region after the war began, seeking refuge from the shelling.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 3:50 PM

Kyiv:

Kyiv, Ukraine.

Kids mourn their classmate and friend Danylo, killed in a russian missile attack on the city. They brought his portrait and flowers to his bombed out home.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 8:51 AM

Moscow:

A car belonging to Russian General Yaroslav Moskalik was blown up near Moscow. Russian media reports that he died 👀🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 5:34 AM

Bryansk Oblast, Russia:

🚗💥Car Explosion in Bryansk: Russian Designer of Krasukha EW Systems Killed

Ritikov, a designer of modern Russian EW systems, was the head of the design bureau at the Bryansk Electromechanical Plant.

The explosion took place during the night of April 17-18. But the results become known only now.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 25, 2025 at 9:46 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

🫡🇺🇦 Easter Sunday in Ukraine—Alex and Shayba.
The holiday is not about what is on the table, but about who is around. It is in the thoughts of those we love. In the memories of home. In children’s smiles and mothers’ hugs.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 20, 2025 at 4:30 PM

Open thread!

First Lady Zelenska was also in South Africa with her husband to sign a memorandum of cooperation and the establishment of a Center for Global Ukrainian Studies.

During First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska’s visit to the Republic of South Africa, which was shortened due to a Russian shelling of Ukraine on Thursday night, the first memorandum on cooperation and the establishment of a Center for Global Ukrainian Studies on the African continent was signed with Professor Francis Petersen, Principal of the University of Pretoria.

“Ukrainian studies are not just about Ukraine – they’re about universal themes and values that resonate with the experience of many nations: about liberation movements, a history of subjugation, the fight for dignity, and the right to be yourself,” the First Lady said.

Olena Zelenska emphasized that dialogue between Ukraine and the Republic of South Africa is mutually beneficial and enriching. According to her, South Africa is well aware of transformation, historical challenges, and long-term changes on the path to freedom and equality of human rights. At the same time, Ukraine is an example of democracy at war – defending freedom and independence.

Background. The Global Coalition of Ukrainian Studies was launched with the support of First Lady Olena Zelenska as a joint initiative of the Ukrainian Institute, the Fund of the President of Ukraine for the Support of Education, Science and Sports, the Mission of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea / Crimea Platform Office, the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Its main goal is to promote the development of Ukrainian studies – including Crimean Tatar studies – to ensure accurate and professional research on Ukraine’s history and culture, and to popularize the Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar languages and cultures.

Georgia:

Rustaveli Avenue remains blocked on the 148th day of continuous protests. Citizens continue to demand a re-run of the parliamentary elections and the release of those arrested during the demonstrations.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 1:58 PM

Georgians chant support for Ukraine every single day, it’s a part of our protest ritual. And especially today.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:20 PM

More and more activists in Georgia call for outright resignation of the illegitimate regime as opposed to the universally demanded new free and fair Parliamentary elections.

Sometimes it seems to me that we are on a very slow but a very surely drafted path of history.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 1:50 PM

1/ Police officer Lasha Kharkhelauri, who participated in a body search, was questioned today at the trial of Nika Katsia, who is formally accused of drug trafficking but actually is arrested for participating in protests.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:05 AM

2/ After the hearing, journalists were not given the opportunity to ask him questions. The police officer and his companions physically assaulted the journalists and left the courthouse in this manner.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:05 AM

3/ Nika Katsia denies the charges and claims that he was drugged with 14 grams of cocaine.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:05 AM

1/ Fifth president of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, says the discussion around suspending Georgia’s visa-free travel with the EU is not coming from Brussels but is part of Georgian Dream’s fear campaign.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM

2/ If the visa liberalisation is ultimately halted, she added, the responsibility will rest with the Georgian Dream.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM

3/ Representatives of the GD government have not ruled out the possibility that the EU could suspend visa-free travel with Georgia.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM

4/ In recent days, GD leaders have downplayed the importance of visa-free access, suggesting it wouldn’t significantly affect Georgian citizens. Their comments have sparked widespread discussion and concern across the country.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM

5/ Prior to this, the EU Council suspended visa-free travel for Georgian diplomats and officials, but ordinary citizens continue to benefit from visa-free access to the EU for short-term (90-day) visits.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM

6/ Georgia has benefited from visa-free travel with the European Union since 2017.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM

The US:

“Although the exact number of missiles the United States has is classified, it is likely a few tens of thousands. Russia has fired almost 12,000 missiles in … two years. [America] suffers from munitions shortages across almost every weapons category” www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 23, 2025 at 8:22 AM

From Foreign Affairs:

The U.S. military is arguably the most powerful in the world. But it is not ready for such a conflict. Its weapons are sophisticated. Its soldiers are second to none. Yet the United States has low stockpiles of munitions, its ships and planes are older than China’s, and its industrial base lacks the capacity to regenerate these assets. The U.S. supply of precision-strike missiles, for example, would last no more than a few weeks in a high-intensity conflict and would take years to replace. In war games that simulate a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Washington runs out of key munitions within weeks.

American officials are aware of the shortages. In response, Congress and the Department of Defense have contracted to expand existing defense production lines and, in some cases, to restart old ones. Yet these recent efforts are insufficient to compensate for more than three decades of complacency and atrophy. Washington has hiked defense spending to $825 billion—a record nominal level. But this represents under three percent of U.S. GDP, the lowest level this century and among the lowest since World War II. Of that $825 billion, just 21 percent is dedicated to procuring new munitions and equipment.

To address this failure, Washington must act now. The Trump administration, in partnership with Congress, must undertake six urgent initiatives: modernizing existing assets, broadening defense capabilities, expanding stockpiles and manufacturing capacity for munitions, increasing competition and reducing supplier vulnerabilities, changing how the Pentagon does business, and increasing funding levels and continuity of funding. To be effective, these initiatives must be implemented together. A piecemeal approach will be insufficient. Increasing the American defense budget, for instance, is essential, but it will not be enough to meet U.S. needs unless Washington increases the number of companies in the defense industrial base and adds newer capabilities such as uncrewed systems, better space-based sensors, and software that can be continuously updated. Even then, American officials might struggle to get what they need unless the armed forces can more easily buy equipment and supplies from U.S. allies. Finally, the Pentagon needs to dramatically reform its management practices and procurement processes to focus on speed and efficacy.

Increasing defense spending may be a tough sell in Washington, given that both the Trump administration and progressives in Congress want to reduce the military’s footprint. But policymakers should remember that preventing a war is much cheaper than fighting one. With increased military spending on quantity and quality, Washington can make a potential Chinese invasion more costly and risky, creating doubt in Xi’s mind about his odds of succeeding. And if a U.S. military buildup does not stop a Chinese assault on Taiwan, Washington will be even happier that it expanded its arsenal. The United States, after all, will not have the time required to ramp up production once a conflict begins.

From 1989 to 1999, the United States cut its defense budget by nearly a third. The Cold War was over, so U.S. officials no longer saw the need for an enormous military. Congress continued to spend on major defense platforms, such as the F-22 aircraft and Nimitz-class aircraft carriers. But it drastically reduced the budget for munitions and smaller weapons. The defense industrial base consolidated, and its investment in capacity and workforce declined. Suppliers focused on minimum rates of production, just-in-time inventory management, and cost reductions.

None of this worried most U.S. strategists. After the first Gulf war, in which the United States defeated the sixth-largest army in six days with very few casualties, analysts assumed that future wars would likely be short and would not require massive stockpiles of basic munitions and materiel. Military planners assumed there would be future quick victories secured by technological superiority.

For three decades, this reasoning largely held. From 2001 to 2002, the United States drove the Taliban into exile, and it rapidly defeated the Iraqi military in the second Gulf war that began in 2003. But the resulting, lengthy insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq proved that this vision of quick victories was a fallacy. Instead, asymmetric capabilities and sustained political will helped the insurgents outlast the U.S. military. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was further proof that the equation had changed. Defying the predictions of defense analysts, the Ukrainians successfully ground the wealthier, better-equipped Russian military to a halt, locking the two sides in a war of attrition that has cost thousands of lives and millions of munitions. Now, militaries are relearning the lessons of both world wars: major conflicts can still turn into slugfests, and industrial capacity is decisive.

The American military suffers from munitions shortages across almost every weapons category. It lacks short- and medium-range missiles. Most important for a conflict in the Pacific, it has insufficient long-range precision missiles—such as the navy’s long-range antiship missiles, joint air-to-surface standoff missiles, and the army’s precision-strike missiles. According to war games conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States might use 5,000 long-range precision missiles per week and run out after three to four weeks. The United States would also not be able to replace these missiles fast enough. According to a 2021 CSIS study on mobilization, it would take two years to begin replenishing long-range antiship missiles. Such are the consequences of letting the stocks dwindle and the industrial base shrivel: American defense manufacturers lack the parts, expertise, and factory space required to churn out new munitions stocks, as well as the cash flow from new Pentagon orders to ramp up production or invest in capacity.

To understand why, consider the Stinger: a surface-to-air missile with infrared capabilities to home in on targets but that is lightweight and shoulder fired. Stingers are portable and highly effective against enemy aircraft and drones and have therefore been essential in Ukraine. As a result, the United States has sent well over 1,000 of them to Kyiv. Washington is trying to replace these weapons, but the Stinger was originally designed in the 1970s, and the military last ordered them 20 years ago. Raytheon, the defense contractor, has had to hire retired engineers to make new ones. It has had to re-create obsolete components. The resulting bottlenecks meant that Raytheon was able to make just 60 Stingers per month over the course of 2024.

Washington is also in need of new ships and planes—the average navy vessel is 19 years old, and the average air force plane is 32 years old. Some ships and planes are 50 years old. On average, major defense systems such as these take more than eight years to make. Meanwhile, 70 percent of the ships in China’s navy have been launched since 2010. China’s annual shipbuilding capacity is also 26 million tons, or a staggering 370 times the United States’ shipbuilding capacity of 70,000 tons. The United States does not even have enough industrywide capacity to make a single Ford-class aircraft carrier per year. (These carriers weigh 100,000 tons.)

Washington’s needs are particularly acute when it comes to the chemicals used in propellants and explosives, known as “energetics.” Investments in these substances and the productive capacity to make them have been especially low; the two energetics most widely used by the United States are chemical compounds from World War II, typically made in government factories from that era. Meanwhile, China and Russia have been aggressively funding more sophisticated energetics programs, leveraging U.S. research. Alarmingly, the United States relies on foreign countries, including China, for about one-third of the raw materials it uses in energetics production.

Washington lags not just when it comes to traditional military wares such as missiles, ships, and energetics. It is also behind on newer innovations, including affordable drones. These systems are absolutely integral to the future of war. Ukraine, for instance, has used swarms of cheap drones to destroy or disable a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Russia, meanwhile, has used them to knock out chunks of the Ukrainian power grid. And the Israel Defense Forces have used uncrewed systems to defeat Hamas in dense urban and subterranean complexes. But today, there are no U.S. manufacturers of low-cost drones anywhere near the size of DJI, the Chinese company and global leader, which makes a very capable $1,000 drone that has been heavily used in Ukraine. Meanwhile, until late 2024, there was only one U.S. supplier of loitering munitions (suicide drones designed to loiter in an area and locate and strike targets with precision): AeroVironment, which has a contract to make 1,000 of them.

The Defense Department has started to make larger investments in affordable drones. Its Replicator program, established in 2023, was created specifically to buy thousands of them. But since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has blown through an average of 10,000 drones a month. The American government has allocated only 0.3 percent of the defense procurement budget to this effort, about the same amount as it dedicates to the close-air-support A-10 Warthog, which the military no longer wants.

Much more at the link.

While this problem, actually a crisis, has been decades in the making, the most immediate issue is one I spent the last three years pointing out and emphasizing in these nightly updates: when confronted with the reality in a way that could not be denied, Biden’s senior natsec team failed to put the US on a war footing to force more funding for and a revitalization of the US defense industrial base. Biden and his team inherited this problem from the first Trump administration, the Obama administration, the Bush 43 administration, and the Clinton administration. Rather than deal with the crisis they inherited, they dithered and equivocated for three years and left this mess for Trump and his team.

President Trump has adopted a completely new phrase over the past three months – “doesn’t have the cards” – which I’m pretty sure he got from Musk who fancies himself a card sharp and master poker player. Right now the US has few cards. Putin, Xi, Kim, Khameini, and everyone else can and have read the reporting and assessments of the US’s weapons systems and munitions stockpiles over the past three years. They may not know exactly what is and is not in inventory, but they know that right now the US does not have the capability and capacity to meet demand if it needs to do so. The question right now is what will Trump, his team, and the GOP controlled Congress do to begin to fix the problem. You can’t put an emphasis on “warfighting” if you’ve got nothing for the warfighters to fight with. The actual term we use in the Profession of Arms is we’re out of Schlitz. In this case because we stopped making it or enough of it.

And this goes directly to either unwittingly or purposefully mistaking Putin’s ultimatum as a concession.

“Trump replied,”stopping the war,” suggesting that not “taking the whole country” is a “pretty big concession.” Putin hasn’t taken #Ukraine because he can’t. Because of Ukrainian courage & resilience. To suggest this is a Russian concession is ludicrous & morally corrupt. www.cnn.com/2025/04/24/p…

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— Mick Ryan (@warinthefuture.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:03 PM

From CNN:

Some US allies are highly alarmed by the framework the Trump administration is pushing to end the Ukraine war and Europeans are bracing for the outcome of another round of high-level talks between the US and Russia, multiple diplomatic sources told CNN.

The administration’s framework, presented in Paris last week, proposes significant sacrifices from Kyiv, including US recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and Ukraine ceding large swaths of territory to Russia, according to an official familiar. Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday called “to freeze the territorial lines at some level close to where they are today.”

Asked what concessions Russia was offering on Thursday, Trump replied, “stopping the war,” suggesting that not “taking the whole country” is a “pretty big concession.”

Multiple allied diplomats said they are rattled by what the Trump administration is proposing, because they believe such a framework sends a dangerous message to Russia’s Vladimir Putin and other world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, that illegal conquest could be rewarded, multiple diplomats said.

“This is about the fundamental principles of international law. This is very much about our own existence and the weakening of any safeguards that my or other countries have for our own independence,” an Eastern European diplomat told CNN. They and other sources spoke on background to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.

“If one country in Europe is currently under pressure or being forced to give up parts of its own legal territory, territory that has been that has been recognized as part of Ukraine … if one country in Europe is forced to do that, no country in Europe or elsewhere can feel safe, NATO or no NATO,” the diplomat said.

The proposal for a de-facto US recognition of Crimea as part of Russia would reverse years of US policy affirming that, despite Russian occupation, Crimea is Ukrainian territory. European officials say they would not follow suit – leaving the US isolated.

Asian allies too are growing concerned about an end of war agreement that would reward Russia after the deadly conflict.

In private discussions with US partners, Asian diplomats have clearly articulated their concerns about the global implications of a settlement that violates Ukraine’s borders.

“China is watching. We have told the Trump administration that. We are worried about the message they might take away from any end to the war that appears to award Russia for the bloodshed,” said one Asian diplomat.

All eyes are now on the expected meeting between special envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin on Friday, which comes after sources say progress was made in talks with European, Ukrainian and US officials in London Wednesday. However, many Europeans fear that the progress might not be fast enough to satisfy Trump’s ambitions for a quick end to the war.

There are also concerns about what kind of additional promises Putin may make to Witkoff to garner favor with the US as European leaders warn that the Russian president is not to be trusted.

Officials are wondering what level of pressure will be applied on Witkoff’s fourth trip to Russia given the US’ desire for a quick end to the war and the US envoy’s past echoing of Putin’s arguments.

Trump on Thursday morning expressed dissatisfaction with the Russian leader after a deadly barrage of Russian missile strikes on Kyiv, saying that they were “not necessary, and very bad timing.”

More at the link.

The real problem is that the Russians have already decided that Trump and his team are, to continue with the poker metaphors, drawing dead, will walk away, and are easily manipulatable. This is a very public Russian influence operation.

Russia’s government paper: “It’s practically a foregone conclusion the US will pull out of Ukraine talks.” Another paper: “The unity of the West is gone. Geopolitically it’s no longer an alliance. Trumpism has destroyed the Atlantic consensus confidently & quickly.” #ReadingRussia

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— Steve Rosenberg (@bbcstever.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 4:08 AM

Here’s the full video:

Public Law 115 – 44 – Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act makes it very clear that Russia’s annexation of Crimea is illegal and that official US policy is to not recognize Russia’s claims to Crimea, any other Russian occupied portion of Ukraine, as well as areas in Georgia and Moldova that Russia is also occupying. (h/t Jay).

SEC. 253. STATEMENT OF POLICY.

The United States, consistent with the principle of ex injuria jus non oritur, supports the policy known as the “Stimson Doctrine” and thus does not recognize territorial changes effected by force, including the illegal invasions and occupations of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, and Transnistria.

EC. 257. <<NOTE: 22 USC 9546.>> UKRANIAN ENERGY SECURITY.

(a) Statement of Policy.–It is the policy of the United States–
(1) to support the Government of Ukraine in restoring its sovereign and territorial integrity;
(2) to condemn and oppose all of the destabilizing efforts by the Government of the Russian Federation in Ukraine in violation of its obligations and international commitments;
(3) to never recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea by the Government of the Russian Federation or the separation of any portion of Ukrainian territory through the use of military force;
(4) to deter the Government of the Russian Federation from further destabilizing and invading Ukraine and other independent countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Caucuses;

This legislation was signed into law by President Trump during his first term.

Back to Ukraine.

Earlier today Trump said Putin will listen to him and stop bombing Ukraine. The situation right now:

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:42 PM

Kharkiv:

Right now, Kharkiv is enduring yet another russian drone attack! Explosions reported in the city!

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:31 PM

Air defense working in Kharkiv‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:38 PM

Kharkiv right now!

Russia yet again attacked our city with drones. Several households and businesses are on fire

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:30 PM

Kyiv:

A little girl tells journalists how loud the explosions were last night and how scared she felt.

Don’t our children deserve safety just like yours?

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 12:51 PM

Death tall after the russian missile attack on Kyiv last night has risen to 12.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 11:14 AM

Kyiv last night.

Russian attack killed at least 10 people and injured at least 100 others

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:38 AM

The Interior Minister reported that in Kyiv, approximately 10 people may still be trapped under the rubble.
According to him, this information is still being verified. Klymenko also added that two children from the same family might have died — this is also preliminary data.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:34 AM

During the night, Russia carried out a massive ballistic strike on Kyiv. Emergency response efforts are ongoing in five districts of the capital to deal with the aftermath of the nighttime attack.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 4:33 AM

🙏🫂 Today, Odesa mourns along with the rest of the country for the victims of the russian terrorist air strike in Kyiv.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 8:28 AM

Zelensky has confirmed that the Russians struck Kyiv with a missile from North Korea.

“According to preliminary information, the Russians used a KN-23 ballistic missile manufactured by North Korea. Our intelligence services are verifying all the details.”

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 3:00 PM

How do you stop an evil that fires a ballistic missiles into a city?

You might feel helpless – but YOU can do something.

Empower Ukrainians to fight back, defend their homeland.

Help Ukraine’s 44th Separate Rifle Battalion raise money for thermal imaging drones here: buff.ly/cdHY0Xy

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 11:22 AM

More information about the battalion’s fundraising appeal here: www.facebook.com/nikolay.beda…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 11:22 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

‼️Reported strikes on Russian targets in Crimea, April 21–23:

💥According to available information, the following Russian assets were destroyed or damaged:

• ST-68UM radar system — confirmed hit, photos attached (Apr 23)
• Tor SAM system (Apr 22)
• P-18-2 radar + support vehicle (Apr 21)

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 6:29 AM

Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

In largest in Zaporizhzhia Oblast assault since 2023, Russian forces lost nearly entire battalion attempting to seize Orikhiv

Ukrainian artillery, drones, & anti-tank units obliterated dozens of armored vehicles without ceding any ground
euromaidanpress.com/2025/04/24/f…

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:38 PM

From EUROMAIDAN Press:

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Here, after failing to make ground west of Orikhiv, Russian forces gambled on something bigger, a massive mechanized assault launched from the south and east. But what began as their boldest push in Zaporizhzhia in years ended in disaster, as nearly an entire battalion was shredded by Ukrainian artillery, drones, and anti-tank fire before reaching its objective.

The goal of the Russians is to achieve a longstanding operational objective and take the town of Orikhkiv before a ceasefire can freeze the frontlines. Orikhiv is a relatively small town of nearly 14 thousand people pre-war, but it is the largest and most strategically important settlement in this sector due to the many open fields here. Therefore, it is of high importance to both sides for its ability to accumulate a large number of forces.

The Russians previously tried to achieve a breakthrough near Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky to flank and approach Orikhiv to the west, but did not achieve further gains than their initial element of surprise had given them. So instead, they are now trying to approach the city from the south and east by conducting the largest mechanized assault seen in Zaporizhzhia in years.

The main advantage of the Russian forces is to the east of Orikhiv, which consists of an interconnected line of settlements from the town of Polohy to the prefrontal village of Novokarlivka, that is 16 kilometers away from the town. This allows Russians to conceal soldiers and armored vehicles relatively close to the frontline, and use the urban layout as a cover for movement until they reach Ukrainian positions.

However, while Polohy serves as a vital logistical hub just behind the frontline, the town sits dangerously close to Ukrainian artillery guns. This proximity places Russian staging areas within range of Ukrainian artillery, rocket systems, and accompanying reconnaissance drones. Furthermore, Ukrainian forces hold robust defenses in Mala Tokmachka, enforcing lethal fire control on any advancing Russian units.

South of Orikhiv, Russian troops around Kopani, Novoprokopivka, and Robotyne have virtually no cover to conceal their advance. The terrain, made up of open fields and settlements completely reduced to rubble during Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, along with dense minefields, makes any assault costly from the start. Additionally, Russian assault groups must gather all the way in Tokmak, 23 kilometers from the front, stretching Russian logistics and allowing for easy detection by Ukrainian drones. The moment those columns roll into the open, Ukrainian artillery and drone crews stand at the ready to cut them down.

Russians initiated their mechanized assault with over forty armored vehicles, dozens of buggies and motorbikes for reconnaissance, and a total of 320 soldiers, making up almost a full battalion combined with rear support elements. They launched their assaults from two pincers, from Kopani to Novodanylivka in the south and from Polohy towards Mala Tokmachka to the east.

Much more at the link.

Toretsk:

The defense of Toretsk through the eyes of assault troops from the 49th Separate Assault Battalion “Carpathian Sich”.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 12:01 PM

Rostov Oblast, Russia:

🔥Saboteurs set the Russian Su-30SM ’35’ on fire at the Rostov military airfield in Russia. (47.2682720, 39.6226034) t.me/DIUkraine/5761

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 11:10 AM

Vladimir Oblast, Russia:

First low resolution satellite imagery of the Russian 51st Arsenal east of Moscow after the explosions

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 1:45 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight.

Here is some adjacent material.

It’s love at first sight! 💙😍

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 24, 2025 at 5:56 PM

Open thread!