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War for Ukraine Day 1,134: Putin Continues His Attempt to Break Kharkiv

by Adam L Silverman| April 3, 20258:47 pm| 19 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

With Mark’s permission and indulgence, let’s just dive right in tonight.

Putin is continuing his attempt to break Kharkiv. All of eastern Ukraine is under air raid alert at 7:49 PM EDT/2:49 AM EDT local time in Ukraine with active drone swarm alerts back up over Kharkiv.

‼️UPD The death toll from the russian drone attacks on Kharkiv has risen to three, with 32 other civilians injured, including two children. There may still be others trapped under the rubble.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 6:23 PM

“First responders retrieved fragments of a third body from beneath the rubble after tonight’s Russian drone strike on Kharkiv,” I read in the news.

Fragments… third body… rubble. This is our news, guys.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 6:23 PM

From just eighteen minutes ago:

Russian drones are buzzzzzing outside my window in Kharkiv ‼️ it’s the second attack on our city tonight

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 7:31 PM

One of the injured in today’s russian drone attack on Kharkiv. Russian propaganda will call him a NATO biolab azov mercenary. But he is just a boy.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 6:45 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Russia launched a drone attack against the city of Kharkiv late at night on April 3, killing at least three civilians and injuring 32 others, Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported.

A Russian drone struck an apartment building in the city’s Novobavarskyi district, Terekhov reported. A large fire broke out at the site following the attack.

The attack killed three people and injured 32 others. A child is among the wounded, according to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service.

A search and rescue operation is underway for any victims who may be trapped under the rubble, Terekhov said.

Kharkiv Oblast, located near Ukraine‘s northeastern border with Russia, is a frequent target of Russian aerial bombardments. Russia regularly launches large-scale missile, drone, and glide bomb attacks against densely populated civilian districts.

Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s residential neighborhoods and civilian infrastructure amid a partial “ceasefire” that is supposed to preclude attacks on energy facilities. Kyiv has presented the U.S. with evidence that Russia has violated the energy ceasefire, Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa said on April 3.

The reporting over the past several weeks, which is part of the maskirovka around potential truces and ceasefires, is that Putin is planning on having Russia undertake a spring offensive up and down that 1,100 mile plus (front) line of contact in eastern Ukraine/western Russia. Trying to reduce the major cities by attacking civilian infrastructure in the population centers in the oblasts closest to the line of contact is clearly part of the Russian theater strategy. These attacks are intended to demoralize through terrorizing the Ukrainian citizenry in these cities, divert resources, stretch and exhaust Ukrainian air defense, all in preparation for the rumored spring offensive. They are also intended to rub Trump’s and the world’s nose in Trump’s impotence regarding Putin and Russia.

Adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, Podoliak, commented that the U.S. should respond to Russia’s violation of the “energy truce” and shift from a “carrot” policy to a “stick” policy.
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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 2:51 PM

Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier tonight. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Since August of Last Year, Our Units Have Been Fighting on Enemy Territory – One of Ukraine’s Most Significant Achievements in This War – Address by the President

3 April 2025 – 19:10

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

Today, two of our regions – Chernihiv and Sumy. A strategic area, the border with Russia.

I began the day in Yahidne – just a few days ago was the anniversary of the village’s liberation from the occupiers. It’s important that many facilities in the village have been restored, new homes are being built, and efforts are being made to preserve the memory of how the Russians held the entire village in the basement of a school. One of the most cynical and inhumane crimes of this war. We will never forget it. I was also in Chernihiv, where I met with representatives of all our communities in the region. Many issues were raised – especially by the communities bordering Russia and suffering virtually constant shelling. Today, we made the decision to allocate additional funds to support all such communities – those along the border with the enemy, as well as frontline communities. Next week, government officials are expected to get this done – tangible additional funding for each of these communities to address their most urgent needs.

Today, I was also in our Sumy region – one of the directions where a lot is at stake. I wanted to be here in person. I wanted to personally thank our warriors: the Air Assault Forces – the 80th Brigade, the 82nd, the Marine Corps – the 36th Brigade – and everyone carrying out missions in the Kursk region, defending our state, defending our Sumy region from the Russians’ unrelenting desire to advance into Ukraine from these directions. I want to thank all our soldiers, all our sergeants, and every one of our officers who are fighting with absolute heroism in these areas. Since August of last year, our units have been fighting on enemy territory – one of Ukraine’s most significant achievements in this war. It is entirely fair to bring the war back to where it came from. Today, we spoke with the commanders of our units in this area – discussed key needs, additional support, equipment supply, drones, operational issues. We are working to defend our positions. We know what the enemy is counting on. In any case, we will defend our state, our independence and our people.

I’m grateful to all our people who are defending their homes, their communities, and their land – our land. Being here, supporting the state and the army, caring for those around you – all of this matters, all of this helps us preserve Ukraine and bring peace closer.

Glory to Ukraine!

He also meant with the heads of the territorial communities in Chernihiv Oblast:

Georgia:

Tonight was Day 127 of the continuous protests for new, free and fair Parliamentary elections and the release of the regime prisoners. #GeorgiaProtests
📷 Giorgi Burjanadze

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 4:33 PM

A student political prisoner, Zviad Tsetskhladze, produces a newspaper in detention. We then distribute it at the protests.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 4:39 PM

1/ According to the April 2 decree of the GD government: “Ukrainian citizens have the right to enter Georgia visa-free and stay for a full 1-year period. Ukrainian citizens who entered and were present in Georgia before February 24, 2025, will have their stay extended until February 24, 2026.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 8:24 AM

2/ In contrast, the previous government decree from April 23, 2024, stated that “Ukrainian citizens have the right to enter Georgia visa-free and stay for a full 3-year period.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 8:24 AM

The EU:

E.U. Prepares Major Penalties Against Elon Musk’s X www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/t…

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— Anthony Michael Kreis (@anthonymkreis.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 6:54 PM

From The NY Times:

European Union regulators are preparing major penalties against Elon Musk’s social media platform X for breaking a landmark law to combat illicit content and disinformation, said four people with knowledge of the plans, a move that is likely to ratchet up tensions with the United States by targeting one of President Trump’s closest advisers.

The penalties are set to include a fine and demands for product changes, said the people, who declined to be identified discussing an ongoing investigation. These are expected to be announced this summer and will be the first issued under a new E.U. law intended to force social media companies to police their services, they said.

European authorities have been weighing how large a fine to issue X as they consider the risks of further antagonizing Mr. Trump amid wider trans-Atlantic disputes over trade, tariffs and the war in Ukraine. The fine could surpass $1 billion, one person said, as regulators seek to make an example of X to deter other companies from violating the law, called the Digital Services Act.

E.U. officials said their investigation into X was progressing independently from tariff negotiations after Mr. Trump announced major new levies this week. The investigation began in 2023 and regulators last year issued a preliminary ruling that X had violated the law.

The E.U. and X could still reach a settlement if the company agrees to changes that satisfy regulators’ concerns, the officials said.

X also faces a second E.U. investigation that is broader and that could lead to further penalties. In that investigation, two people said, E.U. officials are building a case that X’s hands-off approach to policing user-generated content has made it a hub of illegal hate speech, disinformation and other material that is viewed as undercutting democracy across the 27-nation bloc.

“We have always enforced and will continue to enforce our laws fairly and without discrimination toward all companies operating in the E.U., in full compliance with global rules,” a spokesman for the European Commission, the E.U.’s executive branch, said in a statement, declining to comment specifically on X.

X declined to comment.

Officials in Brussels expect Mr. Musk, who has criticized European policies as a form of censorship, to fight any regulation. Last July, after the E.U.’s preliminary findings were released, Mr. Musk said he looked forward to contesting any penalty in “a very public battle in court.”

That could set up a legal confrontation with wide-ranging ramifications. If Mr. Musk refuses to comply with E.U. orders to change his service, it may result in a standoff over how to get X to comply.

The X investigation has been closely watched as the first major attempt to enforce the Digital Services Act, which requires companies to better police their platforms and to provide adequate transparency about how their services work. The law has become a flashpoint in a trans-Atlantic debate about free speech, with Vice President JD Vance in February likening E.U. regulation to digital censorship.

After Mr. Trump was elected, European regulators slowed down the X investigation to assess the potential fallout, one person said. More recently, as trade tensions with the United States intensified, the authorities decided to press ahead.

Last year, European regulators concluded that X was violating the law by refusing to provide data to outside researchers, making it difficult to measure how disinformation and other harmful material spreads on the service. The authorities also believe X has failed to provide adequate transparency about advertisers, or to verify the authenticity of users who pay to have a “verified” account, making the platform more vulnerable to abuse and foreign interference.

The E.U. and X have been in discussions for months over the investigation. After the preliminary judgment against X last year, the company replied with hundreds of points of dispute that regulators have been working through to rebut, two officials said.

E.U. officials said the exact penalty against X would not be decided until closer to a final announcement. Under the Digital Services Act, companies can be fined up to 6 percent of global revenue, though regulators rarely pursue the largest-possible penalty.

Unlike Google, Meta, Apple and Amazon, which are publicly traded, X is owned solely by Mr. Musk. E.U. regulators are considering using a piece of the law that lets them calculate a fine based on revenue that also includes other companies Mr. Musk privately controls, like his rocket maker SpaceX. That increases the potential penalty to well over $1 billion, one person said.

At least we all agree that this is plausibly quasi-random and exogenous as fuck

by David Anderson| April 3, 202512:36 pm| 60 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Open Threads

I’ve only admitted to myself that I’m a health economist in the past two years. I don’t do fancy calculus or real analysis. So I am definitely not a BIG E economist. However when I read and review econ papers as part of my service to the profession, I frequently see long arguments, counter-arguments and fifteen page appendixes justifying that a shock (be it policy or be it a ship running aground in the Suez Canal) can be treated as if it is random and externally imposed (exogenous). For once the reviewer and the reader buys that the proposed shock is quasi-random and exogenous, the rest of the paper, if it is well done, then flows from there. As researchers, we need these quasi-random and exogenous shocks to identify how different things causally change outcomes of interest.

And by god, in four or five years, reviewing health econ papers will be easy as the methods section will be along the lines of:

“We leverage the Rose Garden Tariffs differential impacts on the different molecules in the specified drug classes to identify the short run elasticity of demand. From here, we use a long complicated regression model in the second stage to assess the impact of GLP-1 drugs on bear dancing ability ….”

And every reviewer will nod and say that the first stage is quasi-random and exogenous as fuck.

At least we all agree that this is plausibly quasi-random and exogenous as fuckPost + Comments (60)

Trump Tariffs: Economic Policy or Political Weapon?

by Betty Cracker| April 3, 20258:45 am| 298 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Domestic Politics, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, Republican Venality

Trump put on his big-boy tariff pants and presided over a grotesque spectacle in the former Rose Garden yesterday, surrounded by fellow billionaire/multimillionaire cabinet members with Facebook’s Zuckerberg tagging along and probably Musk lurking somewhere in the crowd.

Team Trump delayed the show by an hour so the markets couldn’t react in real time. Dow futures were down about 1200 points last I looked, and CNBC says a monthly layoffs report released this morning is “exceeded only by when the country shut down in 2020 for the Covid pandemic,” thanks in part to the Musk/DOGE chainsaw effect at federal agencies.

This is all pretty bad. Trump inherited a healthy(ish) economy and could have sat back and taken credit for his predecessor’s effort as he did in 2016. In fact, that’s what I worried he’d do. But because this tariff thing is such a massive self-sabotage, many folks are wondering why Trump is doing this.

Does he hope to replace income taxes with what amounts to a national sales tax that would fall heaviest on working people? Is he just stupid, as foretold by the prophet Fran Lebowitz?

There’s probably some truth to all of that, but Senator Murphy of Connecticut made a compelling case on Bluesky last night to view the tariff regime as an extortion tool that Trump can use to intimidate and control businesses as part of the authoritarian takeover.

Here’s a link to Murphy’s thread; the content is rendered in text form below:

Those trying to understand the tariffs as economic policy are dangerously naive.

No, the tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief.

1/ A 🧵 to explain his plan and how we fight back.

2/ This week you will read many confused economists and political pundits who won’t understand how the tariffs make economic sense.

That’s because they don’t. They aren’t designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a new, super dangerous political tool.

3/ You see, our founders created a President with limited and checked powers. They specifically put the power of spending and taxation in the hands of the legislature.

Why? Because they watched how kings and despots used spending and taxes to control their subjects.

4/ British kings used taxation to reward loyalty and punish dissent.

Our own revolution was spurred by the King’s use of heavy taxation of the colonies to punish our push for self governance.

The King’s message was simple: stop protesting and I’ll stop taxing.

5/ Trump knows that he can weaken (and maybe destroy) democracy by using spending and taxation in the same way.

He is using access to government funds to bully universities, law firms and state and local governments into loyalty pledges.

6/ Healthy democracies rely on an independent legal profession to maintain the rule of law, independent universities to guard objective truth and provide forums for dissent to authority, and independent state/local government to counterbalance a powerful federal government.

7/ But the private sector also plays a rule to protect democracy. Independent industry has power.

The tariffs are Trump’s tool to erode that independence. Now, one by one, every industry or company will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief.

8/ What could Trump demand as part of a quiet loyalty pledge?

Public shows of support from executives for all his economic policy. Contributions to his political efforts. Promises to police employees’ support for his political opposition.

9/ The tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship. Why? So that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry.

As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears.

10/ And once Trump has the lawyers, colleges and industry under his thumb, it becomes very hard for the opposition to have any viable space to maneuver. Trump didn’t invent this strategy. It’s the playbook for democratically elected leaders who want to stay in power forever.

11/ The tariffs aren’t economic policy. They are political weapons.

But as long as we see this clearly, we can stop him. Public mobilization is working. Today, a few Republicans joined Democrats to vote against one set of tariffs.

The people still have the power.

One critical point to keep in mind about this issue (and to bring up in real-life discussions) is that tariffs aren’t a magic wand that only the president can wave. Congressional Republicans could stop Trump from ruining the economy right now. Josh Marshall at TPM:

Point one is that we should remember that Presidents have no inherent power over tariffs whatsoever. This isn’t like war powers or pardons where these are questions the Constitution assigns to the will of one person. They are entirely delegated by Congress and could be taken back at any moment. They are also explicitly reserved for emergencies. They aren’t meant to be used as to create entirely novel trade regimes. But Congress lets the President decide what constitutes an emergency. The logic of that delegation is based on the flexibility and convenience the delegation creates and the assumption that the president wouldn’t be nuts. The Republican Congress could bring this absurd gambit to a halt tonight. So it’s all on them, every one of them individually.

It wouldn’t even take that many Repubs nor require much political courage. If a dozen or so in swingy districts/states would nut up and vote with Democrats, they could stop Trump from plunging us into a deep recession or worse.

Heck, it would probably even redound to their political benefit and hurt Dems who’ve been doing the right thing all along! Imagine the media hosannahs that would greet Republicans who showed a little independence — a new John McCain to worship.

If a handful broke ranks, one of their number would probably be hyped all the way to the White House in 2028 by a drama-addicted political press that is wired for the GOP. But so far, Repub lawmakers are still frozen in fear of the sundowning orange geezer. It’s beyond pathetic.

Open thread.

Trump Tariffs: Economic Policy or Political Weapon?Post + Comments (298)

Schadenfreude Open Thread: GOP Knives Sporks Out for Elon

by Anne Laurie| April 3, 20256:35 am| 92 Comments

This post is in: Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Schadenfreude

Oh wow, Elon is giving a concession speech in Wisconsin pic.twitter.com/npzAiu3het

— Liam Nissan™ (@theliamnissan) April 2, 2025

BREAKING NEWS: Billionaire JB Pritzker BEATS Elon Musk.

Two billionaires poured money into Wisconsin:

Elon Musk spent $82 Million.

JB Pritzker spent $500,000.

Pritizker’s response? “Elon Musk is not good at this.” pic.twitter.com/jRJlPE0ID6

— CALL TO ACTIVISM (@CalltoActivism) April 2, 2025

The GOP has no time for luzers, Elon!

Charlie Warzel, at the Atlantic – Elon Musk Lost His Big Bet:

…Given Musk’s heavy involvement—the centibillionaire not only campaigned in the state but also brazenly attempted to buy the election by offering to pay voters $100 for signing a petition from his America PAC opposing “activist judges”—the election was billed as a referendum of sorts on Musk’s own popularity. In that sense, it was a resounding defeat. Musk, normally a frenetic poster, had very little to say about politics last night, pecking out just a handful of terse messages to his 218.5 million followers. “The long con of the left is corruption of the judiciary,” he posted at 1:23 a.m. eastern time.

In the light of defeat, the SpaceX post feels like a glimpse into what could have been for Musk—a timeline where the world’s richest man wasn’t algorithmically radicalized by his own social-media platform. It’s possible that Musk’s temperament and personal politics would have always led him down this path. But it’s also easy to imagine a version where he mostly stayed out of politics, instead leaning into his companies and continuing to bolster his carefully cultivated brand of Elon Musk, King of Nerd Geniuses.

Unfortunately, he surrendered fully to grievance politics. Like so many other prolific posters, he became the person his most vocal followers wanted him to be and, in the process, appears to have committed reputational suicide. Since joining President Donald Trump’s administration as DOGE’s figurehead—presiding over the quasi-legal gutting of the federal government—Musk has become not just polarizing but also genuinely unpopular in America. Now his political influence is waning, Tesla is the object of mass protest, and sales of his vehicles are cratering. This morning, only hours after his candidate lost, Trump reportedly told his inner circle and Cabinet members that Musk will be “stepping back” from his perch in the administration for a more “supporting role.” In Trumpworld, nothing’s over until it’s over, but Elon Musk seems to have overstayed his welcome. (Musk did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for the White House referred me to Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s post calling the report that Musk is stepping back “garbage”; Musk posted on X that the reporting is “fake news.”)

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Musk’s appeal to Trump has always been about two things: money and optics. As the richest man in the world, Musk is both a cash cow and a kind of enforcer: His checkbook and closeness to Trump remind Republicans in Congress that they can and will be primaried if they break from the administration. But Musk’s reputation is just as important to Trump, who respects great wealth and clearly enjoys being shadowed and adored by a man of Musk’s perceived stature and technological acumen (although Trump is easily impressed—take, for example, “Everything’s Computer!”) Musk’s image in Silicon Valley was useful to the Trump campaign, bringing in new fanboy voters and sending a message that the administration would transform the government and run it like a lean start-up.

But although his money is still good, the Wisconsin election suggests that Musk himself is an electoral liability. A poll released today, conducted in Wisconsin by Marquette University Law School, showed that 60 percent of respondents view Musk unfavorably, and a recent Harvard/Harris poll shows that his national favorability dropped 10 points from February to March. (He now has a net favorability rating of –10 percent.) An aggregation of national polls shows that the approval rating of his DOGE efforts has also dipped dramatically: Just 39 percent of Americans approve of his work, nearly 10 points lower than in mid-February…

John Heilemann, at Puck – Elon Crash Lands in Wisconsin:

...Ironically, the silver lining around these dark clouds is the shellacking Musk took in Wisconsin. One of the dirty little secrets of the G.O.P. House and Senate conferences—and of its governor’s mansions, too—is that more than a few Republicans in these bodies had been quietly hoping Musk would have his head handed to him last night. From his chainsaw-wielding acting-out to his even more lunatic labeling of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme,” Musk is a walking, talking political I.E.D. that many if not most Republican electeds wish could be summarily dispatched to pursue his dream of colonizing Mars. “Not that he needs our money,” a senior G.O.P. senator told me, chuckling. “But we’d all pitch in and pay for his ticket if that’s what it took.”

Comments like this, even on background, were all but impossible to come by in the first two months of Trump 2.0—such was the acute and pervasive fear that crossing Musk would lead to facing a well-funded primary opponent (and irking Trump in the bargain). But the passage of time and mounting sense of the political risk Musk embodies has begun to loosen at least a few tongues. In his Politico column yesterday, my pal Jonathan Martin induced two House Republicans to cough up spicy quotes (sans attribution) on this topic that rhyme with conversations I’ve had recently: one saying that an “April 1 massacre” would be “a beautiful thing,” the other that “Elon’s work needs to wrap up, and he needs to exit stage left.”…

@annelaurie.bsky.social

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— espierce (@espierce.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 9:18 AM

Schadenfreude Open Thread: GOP <del>Knives </del>Sporks Out for ElonPost + Comments (92)

Overnight USA Open Thread: That’ll Show Those Freeloading Penguins

by Rose Judson| April 3, 20253:12 am| 81 Comments

This post is in: Economics, Open Threads, Assholes, The Horrors

I missed Trump’s Liberation Day announcement last night—I had more important things to do, like cleaning the lint trap in the dryer and defrosting a mouse for the snake—but I’m sure it was a breathtaking display of political oratory that showcased the president’s deft handling of tricky economic policies.

Oh, you mean it was a shit sundae with stupid sprinkles and a drizzling of stupid sauce? Quelle surprise. First, the economists collectively face-palmed once the White House showed its math as to how it had arrived at the tariff rates it chose. It is, per MSNBC economics reporter Catherine Rampell, “the dumb calculation”:

I had been reluctant to amplify the theory that Trump’s “reciprocal tariff rate” for a given country was based on the dumb calculation: (bilateral trade deficit) divided by (imports from that country)

But now USTR has confirmed it. Brief 🧵

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 2:39 AM

Translated into English: Their calculation is net exports with a given country (exports minus imports).
The denominator is imports multiplied by…1 (4*0.25=1)
So: trade deficit divided by imports.

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 2:42 AM

I hear a high-pitched whine in my ears when I try to understand any economics idea beyond an undergrad intro course, but it is obvious even to me how stupid this is. A reply to Rampell’s thread put it well:

He thinks that a trade deficit means America is getting ripped off. I buy groceries and at the end of the year I have a $10,000 trade deficit with the store, but that doesn’t mean the store is cheating me.

— James 🍁 (@jrwilk.bsky.social) April 3, 2025 at 5:33 AM

James, did you know that “groceries” is an old-fashioned, beautiful term? The president said so last night!

“It sort of says a bag with different things in it. Groceries went through the roof and I campaigned on that. I talked about the word ‘groceries’ for a lot, and energy costs now are down. Groceries are down.”

We are all down, sir. Bigly, bigly down.

But there’s more! The trade war is truly universal, with several remote territories making the list. From Wired Magazine, we learn that the Heard and McDonald Islands, way down near the Antarctic, were listed on the tariff sheet:

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Overnight USA Open Thread: That’ll Show Those Freeloading PenguinsPost + Comments (81)

War for Ukraine Day 1,133: Russia Continues Its Relentless Attacks Despite Trump’s Truce

by Adam L Silverman| April 2, 20259:43 pm| 14 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I’m just going to run through the basics tonights.

The Russians continued their relentless bombardment of civilian targets in Kharkiv and other Ukrainian cities, like Kryvyi Rih, today.

How can anyone not see that Russians have gone completely off the rails? Second drone attack on Kharkiv today—over a dozen explosions. Ballistic strike on Kryvyi Rih kills four. Explosions in Dnipro just minutes ago. They kill and destroy every single day, nonstop.

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— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 4:35 PM

Russia once again launched drones at Ukraine overnight. Strikes targeted Kharkiv, Odesa region, and Sumy region. In Sumy and Dnipro regions, power lines were damaged due to the attacks.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 5:59 AM

Zelensky: “Another round of deliberate strikes and damage to energy facilities – an FPV drone hit a substation in Sumy region, and in Nikopol, Dnipro region, a power line was damaged by artillery fire.”

Unsurprisingly, fascist Russia not adhering to the “energy infrastructure” ceasefire.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 4:09 AM

Kharkiv tonight…

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 4:25 PM

The man in this photo was one of four civilians killed today in a russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:25 AM

More on all of this after the jump.

President Zelenskyy made a visit to Dnipro today to meet with wounded Ukrainian troops and present them with awards.

During a working trip to Dnipro, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited a medical facility where wounded warriors are undergoing treatment.

The Head of State toured the intensive care unit, anesthesiology, and polytrauma departments. He was briefed on the hospital’s operations during the full-scale war, its modern medical equipment, and the restoration efforts following Russian strikes.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with defenders currently receiving treatment at the facility.

“Thank you for your service and for defending our country. I wish you a speedy recovery,” he said.

The President awarded the Orders “For Courage” III class to the warriors who sustained severe injuries while carrying out combat missions, including in the Donetsk region.

Zelensky visited hospitals in Dnipro where wounded Ukrainian defenders are receiving treatment.
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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 1:54 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Today – Dnipro. A Working Trip with Many Different and Substantive Meetings – Address by the President

2 April 2025 – 15:28

I wish you health!

Today – Dnipro. A working trip with many different important meetings. Very substantive. I visited our warriors who are recovering from their wounds. I want to thank our doctors and all the medical professionals who are saving our men, our women, our service members and everyone affected by these Russian attacks. One of the greatest results in saving lives of our people is here – in Dnipro. More than 40,000 wounded, and 96 percent were saved. I want to thank you for this – well done! Thank you to all the doctors, surgeons, and everyone providing support. I had the opportunity to speak with our warriors and present state awards. There are many such heroic men. I wish everyone a speedy recovery!

I spoke with veterans – there is an awesome initiative, Titans.UA. They truly are titans. It’s important that these guys are full of energy, know how to solve problems and don’t forget their brothers-in-arms. Today, specific issues were raised – everything must be resolved. Opportunities for the rehabilitation and development of veterans in small communities must absolutely be created – and building such opportunities based on schools is a great idea voiced by the veterans today. It’s truly important to do everything possible to preserve veterans’ connections with their units, with their brothers-in-arms, and with the Defense Forces as a whole. If some opportunities for veterans to support the army aren’t working because of military bureaucracy – this absolutely needs to be changed. The Ministry of Defense will now take this on, and the Presidential Office will assist as well. It’s important that the Minister for Veterans Affairs also be involved. I’ll speak with everyone. A lot of points were raised – we’ve recorded everything. There were also personal issues discussed – particularly access to medical care – as well as more strategic ones. In Ukraine, we need domestic production of equipment and all the tools our veteran community needs for swift adaptation, for feeling useful. We talked today about rehabilitation through veteran sports – we will continue to support this.

There was also an important meeting today with business representatives from our Dnipro region – which is currently the number one region in terms of contribution to Ukraine’s GDP and in many other economic areas. For this, I would like to thank everyone who is preserving and creating jobs in the region, everyone working for Ukraine and for the benefit of Ukraine. We will continue all government programs that have proven effective. There is still more we can do to support our industry – I’ve instructed government officials to fulfill what the entrepreneurs have asked for today. Ukraine’s results are shared results – the achievements of all those who have chosen Ukraine, who are actively working for Ukraine, and who are ready to do whatever is necessary for Ukraine to endure and achieve its goals. I want to thank you – I thank you all! Thank you, Dnipro! Thank you, Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

More reports from Georgia of detention and mistreatment of protestors.

Elene Khoshtaria has been released but not before being subjected to humiliating and degrading treatment.

The UK govt must get tougher on the actions of the Georgian authorities.

www.reneweuropegroup.eu/news/2025-03…

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— James MacCleary MP (@jamesmaccleary.bsky.social) April 1, 2025 at 3:59 PM

If these police officers who assaulted and even tortured opposition leader Elene Khoshtaria are sanctioned immediately, it will have palpable effects on the regime’s security apparatus.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 9:08 AM

1/ The leader of the opposition party “Lelo,” Mamuka Khazaradze, was granted a 50,000-GEL bail as a preventive measure. A criminal case was initiated against him for failing to appear at the GD investigative commission session.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 7:09 AM

2/ A criminal case was also initiated against Khazaradze’s party colleague, Badri Japaridze.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 7:10 AM

3/ The GD single-party parliamentary investigative commission, which is investigating the “crimes of the UNM government,” is headed by Tea Tsulukiani.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 7:10 AM

4/ Other opposition members, including Nika Gvaramia and Zurab Japaridze, have also been summoned to the commission session. Like the former members of the UNM government, they do not intend to participate.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 7:10 AM

The UK has imposed financial sanctions on the key figures of the judicial clan in Georgia, the Chairman of the Tbilisi Court of Appeals Mikheil Chinchaladze (right) and a Member of the High Council of Justice of Georgia Levan Murusidze (left). 1/2

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 9:08 AM

This is amazing news! We are very grateful to the United Kingdom and hope that sanctions against propaganda chief Irakli Rukhadze and at least several illicit businessmen follow, in addition to the dictator himself. 2/2.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 9:08 AM

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 6:15 AM

Britain:

The United Kingdom will transfer 8 to 10 Puma HC.2 transport helicopters to Ukraine, according to Avions Légendaires. The United Kingdom decommissioned the helicopters on March 31.
www.avionslegendaires.net/2025/04/actu…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 7:09 AM

Moscow on the Potomac:

Trump’s Ukraine policy is based on fabricated numbers ($350bn). His Russia policy is based on fabricated numbers (majority support for Russia in occupied territory). Why are we surprised that his trade policy is also based on fabricated numbers?

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 6:10 PM

What message is this supposed to send other than one of succour to Russia? Fine if you want European allies to take more of the burden- they get it and are willing to respond. This just reinforces the (quite reasonable) view that the admin doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine.

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 2:43 PM

The EU member states:

🧵 I’ve been reviewing many of the past year’s US & European military & intelligence assessments of how long it would take Russia to rebuild its military capability and the timeline on which any threat to NATO could unfold. A brief thread below which summarises these assessments.

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:23 AM

Norway intel service: “At the earliest, Moscow may be able to fully realise these plans [for military expansion e.g. Karelia] five to ten years after the war in Ukraine is over.” In some areas Russia has “next to no reserves” for the next two years. etterretningstjenesten.no/publikasjone…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:22 AM

Denmark intel: “no threat” now & “some years” for new units to be ready, but Ru more willing to use force “if it believes…NATO…is unable to maintain its military superiority, does not respond to Ru mil activities or no longer presents a united front.” fe-ddis.dk/globalassets…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:23 AM

Denmark’s assessment hinges on NATO cohesion: “Russia is likely to remain willing to use military force [when] Russia’s leadership believes it can achieve strategic gains w/out risking a direct military conflict with the US and NATO, esp against neighbouring non-NATO countries”

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:23 AM

Sweden: Russia can’t wage another big war while Ukraine war continues on current scale. But “there are conditions for a quantitative increase in military capability over the course of a few years. Increasing military capability qualitatively will take longer.” forsvarsmakten.se/contentasset…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:22 AM

Sweden’s intelligence service says the chances of a surprise large military operation “in our vicinity” are “very low” but Russia “could carry out a limited armed attack against any of the Baltic states or against military or civilian state vessels.” forsvarsmakten.se/contentasset…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:22 AM

Estonian intel: it’ll take Russia 3-4 years to create facilities for new units like 44th Army Corps. Ru lacks pol will to mobilise. But: “sustainability of forming & maintaining new formations over 3-5yr horizon remains uncertain”, influenced by sanctions london.mfa.ee/estonian-for…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:23 AM

Lithuania: Russian plans entail 30-50% increase in west-facing personnel, weapons & equipment. It is “unlikely” to be up to big war in medium term. But could have enough “to launch a limited military action against one or several NATO countries.” kam.lt/wp-content/u…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:22 AM

Finnish intel: Ru mil power near Finland unlikely to grow much while Ukr remains war of attrition. Russia “preparing for various hostile operations” but these “do not indicate that any decision has been made” puolustusvoimat.fi/documents/19…
katsaus.supo.fi/documents/62…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:23 AM

Finnish military intelligence, as an aside, also has a stark assessment of the wider geopolitics: “Russia’s strategic interests are in irreconcilable conflict with the West, and there are no possibilities for improvement in the current situation.” puolustusvoimat.fi/documents/19…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:23 AM

Germany’s military chief speaking in April 2024. “What we see is a threat in five to eight years…By then, based on our analysis, Russia [will have] reconstituted its own forces to a degree that an attack against NATO soil could be possible” www.reuters.com/world/europe…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:22 AM

Sweden and Finland (there’s only six skeets, not seven):

They called it the “Ballet of Ukraine”—but it’s a Russian scheme funding the war.

🧵 1/7

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— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) April 2, 2025 at 5:06 PM

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— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) April 2, 2025 at 5:06 PM

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— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) April 2, 2025 at 5:07 PM

NATO:

🗡️ NATO membership for Ukraine is set in stone, Washington summit commitments remain in force, Alliance official says

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— Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 (@pravda.ua) April 2, 2025 at 6:04 PM

Back to Ukraine.

⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA – APR 2, 2025

■ Engagements, casualties & equipment losses below the 7-day average
■ Visually confirmed: 52 🇷🇺 68 🇺🇦 (🇺🇦 including Kursk) – 30-day ratio 0.9x ⬇
■ 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes stay below average but 100+ airstrikes reported

📈 lookerstudio.google.com/s/pw-RR3iEZOA

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— Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 3:02 AM

“At night, I work in air defense; by day, as a bomber.” – MiG-29 fighter pilot Denfix.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 5:06 AM

Kryvyi Rih:

Russia struck a business enterprise in Kryvyi Rih with a ballistic missile in broad daylight. Ukrainian media report casualties and injuries.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 1:09 PM

From Ukrainska Pravda:

The North Atlantic Alliance has reaffirmed that NATO’s policy on Ukraine’s future membership remains unchanged.

Source: a NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity to journalists in Brussels but representing the organisation’s official stance, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The official stressed that NATO does not believe that its view on Ukraine’s membership has changed despite recent remarks by the US leadership.

“Nothing has changed in our relations. Our relationship is still strong; we have strong political engagement and practical cooperation in many areas,” the Alliance said.

Moreover, there have been no changes in the previously adopted policy towards Ukraine.

“Allies stated at the Washington summit that Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible. This decision remains in force and continues to be a shared NATO policy. For us, Ukraine’s right to choose its alliances and determine its foreign policy course is just as important now as it has always been,” the NATO Secretariat emphasised. NATO Headquarters also stressed that the principle of a state’s right to determine the level of its aspirations in relations with NATO applies not only to Ukraine but to all nations, as it is a fundamental principle of global politics.

Kharkiv:

Explosions number 13 and 14 in Kharkiv‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 3:29 PM

Imagine living for three years in a city left unprotected against missiles, airstrikes, Shahed drones—and now even vulnerable to a simple Molniya drone.

This is the reality in Kharkiv.

Today, Molniya drone struck a residential building, injuring five people, including a child.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 11:07 AM

Kharkiv. This place was destroyed by a russian drobe only a few days ago. “Lviv croissants – we are working” written on the sheets of paper.
I love our people ❤️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 3:47 PM

A few days ago

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 3:47 PM

I can’t begin to convey how emotionally draining, alienating, and soul-crushing it feels to endure bombings for the fourth year. To watch your city being destroyed, to see your people burning in their beds, while the world keeps turning—indifferent enough to let it happen. Or worse,

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 3:21 PM

debating whether we somehow deserve this. There are children here, for goodness’ sake, the elderly—just ordinary people who simply want to live.

There were about 9 explosions in Kharkiv just now. Second attack of the day. Fourth year of this.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 3:21 PM

Kharkiv after last night’s russian drone attack 💔

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 7:44 AM

Lyman:

It’s clear that fascist Russia does not want a ceasefire, and is preparing to seize more of democratic Ukraine’s territory. Trump is being played by Putin, who is drawing out “peace talks” to lock in gains and get a respite from attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 4:17 AM

Chasiv Yar:

🔥🦾 One strike eliminated a branch of the occupants near the town of Chasiv Yar on a rare armored vehicle.
Ukrainian FPV flies aptly to Russian attack aircraft.
They were moving on an unusual vehicle, a RHM-4 chemical defense vehicle designed for reconnaissance of contaminated terrain.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 4:45 PM

Ikutsk Oblast, Russia:

Russian Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic missile carrier bomber crashed due to technical malfunction.

It was used to launch Kh-22 cruise missiles against Ukrainian cities.

The aircraft struck a power line and left 210 houses without power in Irkutsk Oblast, Russia.
⤵️

📹Mash/Telegram

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 7:27 PM

Debris of the Tu-22M3 scattered around the crash site. One pilot died.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 1:30 PM

russians are throwing a pity party over their pricey bomber taking a nosedive. How tragic. 🎻

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 12:49 PM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Consequences of the strike on the field airfield on March 23, located in Ivnya, Belgorod region (approximately 60 km from the Ukrainian border).

The strike was carried out using M30A2 rockets (equipped with tungsten balls) from the HIMARS MLRS.

t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 9:23 AM

From “Kyiv in three days” to a FAB strike on Belgorod region – four years of full-scale war.

Russians are attacking themselves again. This time, they hit a dam near the village of Popivka with an aerial bomb.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) April 2, 2025 at 8:40 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

@patron__dsns

А так?🙂‍↕️ #песпатрон #джекрассел

♬ original sound – Am & Noey

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,133: Russia Continues Its Relentless Attacks Despite Trump’s TrucePost + Comments (14)

Tariffs and the End of the American Century*

by Tom Levenson| April 2, 20256:51 pm| 251 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, How Stupid Are These People?, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity

We should probably talk about the madness Trump unleashed this afternoon. As someone on Bluesky said (the actual author is now lost to endless flow of my timeline), the question of whether a nation could more thoroughly punch itself in the groin than the Brits did with Brexit has now been answered with a resounding “Yes.”

I’m completely buried in book stuff–trying to finish a rapid turnaround short work on vaccines while promoting the almost-here tome on the history of germ theory (which has become waaaaaay too timely thanks to RFK Jr.)–if anyone’s in the neighborhood, I’ll be talking at the Oxford (UK) Literary Festival, on Sunday afternoon; love to see any UK Jackals. So I’m not going to add my gloss to the disaster we’re about to enjoy.

Instead, let me give you a random sample of Bluesky reactions as prompts to start the chat here. Have fun inventing invective of the ferocity Terry Pratchett would have placed in the mouths of Commander Vimes et al.

To add some grist to your mills, here’s an excerpt from a note Paul Krugman just posted on his Substack:

But you know that having once claimed that Europe charges tariffs more than 10 times as high as reality, Trump will never drop that claim. I don’t know how many people noticed, but he’s still claiming that we’re subsidizing Canada by $200 billion a year. Aside from the basic mistake of claiming that a Canadian trade surplus means that we’re somehow subsidizing Canada, he’s inflating the actual trade surplus by a factor of three. Many, many people have pointed out the error, but Trump is sticking with it, the same way Musk is sticking with the millions of dead Social Security beneficiaries thing.

If you had any hopes that Trump would step back from the brink, this announcement, between the very high tariff rates and the complete falsehoods about what other countries do, should kill them.

With that, this thread is open–but I rather hope it stays focused on the matter at hand.

*That outcome is now wildly overdetermined, to be sure.

Image: Angelo Bronzino, detail from Venus, Cupid, Folly, and Time, 1540-1545

Tariffs and the End of the American Century*Post + Comments (251)

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

Fear and negativity are contagious, but so is courage!

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Petty moves from a petty man.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

The willow is too close to the house.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

A tremendous foreign policy asset… to all of our adversaries.

Come on, man.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

There are times when telling just part of the truth is effectively a lie.

War for Ukraine Day 1,134: Putin Continues His Attempt to Break Kharkiv

Since August of Last Year, Our Units Have Been Fighting on Enemy Territory – One of Ukraine’s Most Significant Achievements in This War – Address by the President

At least we all agree that this is plausibly quasi-random and exogenous as fuck

Trump Tariffs: Economic Policy or Political Weapon?

Schadenfreude Open Thread: GOP Knives Sporks Out for Elon

Overnight USA Open Thread: That’ll Show Those Freeloading Penguins

War for Ukraine Day 1,133: Russia Continues Its Relentless Attacks Despite Trump’s Truce

Today – Dnipro. A Working Trip with Many Different and Substantive Meetings – Address by the President

Tariffs and the End of the American Century*