Partners Should Understand: These Russian Strikes Are Not Just on Civilians, but on International Efforts – Address by the President

29 March 2025 – 20:39

Dear Ukrainians!

First of all, today I would like to thank the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, all our municipal services involved after the Russian shelling. Thank you to the National Police of Ukraine, and medical workers – thousands of people are on duty every day and night to protect lives.

Today, in Dnipro alone, nearly 250 of our people were involved in responding to the aftermath of the Russian drone strike – all the necessary services.

The same goes for Kryvyi Rih and other cities and communities of ours that come under attack. Everywhere, the State Emergency Service, all emergency and special services are working to provide assistance. I am grateful to everyone who saves lives and supports our people – it is extremely important.

Last night alone, Russia launched 172 strike drones – over 100 of them were Shaheds. These massive drone attacks have now become a near-daily reality. On top of that, there are continued missile threats, including ballistic ones.

Our partners should clearly understand: these strikes are not just attacks on Ukrainian civilians, but also on all international efforts – on the very diplomacy we are trying to use to end this war. Russia is striking at the positions of everyone who wants to end this war. It is impossible to ignore hundreds of Shaheds every night. We expect a response – a serious one. We are working toward a response. A strong response is urgently needed – above all from the U.S., from Europe, from everyone in the world who has placed their bets on diplomacy. Russia must be forced into peace – only pressure will work.

For far too long, the U.S. proposal for an unconditional ceasefire has been on the table – without a proper response from Russia. That says a lot. There could already have been a ceasefire – if there had been real pressure on Russia. I would like to thank those partners who understand this and are pushing the necessary decisions forward – including new sanctions.

Today I spoke with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi about the situation on the front lines, including areas where our forces are operating on Russian territory. We are maintaining active operations that prevent the occupier from advancing into the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. I am grateful to all our units for their resilience – from the Kursk region to the southern directions.

I want to give special recognition today for their frontline effectiveness to our 225th Separate Assault Regiment, as well as the warriors of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Also, to the Special Operations Forces for their highly effective actions in eliminating the enemy. And to the 35th Separate Marine Brigade for their efficiency in battles in the Pokrovsk sector.

Thank you all, warriors! You are the real deal! I am grateful to everyone who helps our army, works at all our defense enterprises, and provides for the army. I am grateful to everyone who tells the world the truth about what is happening in Ukraine. Ukraine’s strong positions in everything, effective work for our country is what helps bring peace closer the most.

Thank you all! Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 122

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 2:04 PM

Day 122. Women march against regime repressions, including violence against female inmates.

“Women against the regime! You won’t scare us women!”

It seems like instead of projected “protests slowing down,” we are growing strong these days. Of course we are! ✊🏻

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 1:59 PM

‪📷 Giorgi Mumladze ‬

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 1:59 PM

Nika Gvaramia said that policemen stripped Helen Khoshtaria naked, tied her hands, forced her to lie on the bed, and checked her naked body with a metal detector. The MIA claims she was aggressive and that procedures were “carried out in full compliance with the law.”

#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM

The MIA also claims that during the inspection, Khoshtria was „allegedly found in possession of an illegal substance, which has been sent for examination”.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 11:08 AM

About Elene Khoshtaria.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 12:54 PM

Elene has been released! Thank you all so very much! We must, however, stay vigilant about her case!

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 12:30 PM

“We demand new elections”—a 100-kilometer protest march has started from Dmanisi to Tbilisi. The marchers will join the Tbilisi protest on March 31, the day of the Georgian independence referendum.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 3:36 AM

Moscow on the Potomac:

A government that is completely & utterly high on its own supply. “The Trump administration has sent a letter to some large companies in the EU warning them to comply with an executive order banning diversity, equity and inclusion programmes.” www.ft.com/content/02ed…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 4:43 PM

From The Financial Times:

The Trump administration has sent a letter to some large companies in the EU warning them to comply with an executive order banning diversity, equity and inclusion programmes.

The letter, sent by the American embassy in Paris and others around the EU, said that Donald Trump’s executive order applied to companies outside the US if they were a supplier or service provider to the American government, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The embassies also sent a questionnaire that ordered the companies to attest to their compliance. The document, which the Financial Times has seen, is titled “Certification regarding compliance with applicable federal anti-discrimination law”.

The document said: “Department of State contractors must certify that they do not operate any programs promoting DEI that violate any applicable anti-discrimination laws and agree that such certification is material for purposes of the government’s payment decision and therefore subject to the False Claims Act.”

The letter was also sent out by US diplomats in eastern EU states and Belgium, the people said.

The documents appear to signal that the Trump administration is widening its campaign against DEI to foreign companies after launching a crackdown against US media groups such as Disney.

A senior banker in Paris said he was shocked by the letter. “It’s crazy . . . but everything is now possible. The rule of the strongest now prevails.”

“American interference in the inclusion policies of French companies — such as threats of unjustified tariffs — is unacceptable,” the French foreign trade ministry said in a statement.

“France and Europe will defend their companies, their consumers, and also their values.”

The existence of the letter was first reported by Les Échos newspaper.

The extraterritorial move may not be enforceable according to initial legal assessments, so some executives and their advisers have decided not to respond for now, said two of the people.

It comes amid escalating tensions between the Trump administration and Europe over economic and security policy as America pivots away from its traditional allies, especially on trade and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Trump this week imposed an additional 25 per cent levy on auto sector imports into the US and has increased tariffs on European steel and aluminium imports. The EU is working on reciprocal tariffs in response, but has not yet decided which products to target.

Trump officials’ attitude towards Europe was cast into stark relief this week when messages about US attack plans in Yemen were leaked to American media. “I just hate bailing Europe out again,” vice-president JD Vance wrote in a Signal chat group. “It’s PATHETIC,” responded defence secretary Pete Hegseth.

More at the link.

This isn’t going to work the way Trump and his team think it will. It’s just another empty threat from one of the two most empty men on the planet (the other being Trump’s owner/employer Musk).

The following won’t either.

‘Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has reoriented the U.S. military to prioritize deterring China’s seizure of Taiwan and shoring up homeland defense by “assuming risk” in Europe and other parts of the world, according to a secret internal guidance memo’ www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 4:46 PM

Hugely important. ‘Hegseth’s guidance acknowledges that the US is unlikely to provide substantial, if any, support to Europe in the case of Russian military advances, noting that Washington intends to push NATO allies to take primary defense of the region’ www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 4:49 PM

If deterrence fails, you cannot then deter. That’s logically incoherent.

I think it is entirely reasonable for Hegseth to prioritise Asia. But attacking European allies, threatening to annex Canada & Greenland, all while throwing concessions at Russia are not sensible or coherent ways to do this. bsky.app/profile/shas…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 4:51 PM

Back to Ukraine.

How are the truce talks going?

Expecting a breakthrough was “naive,” Karasin said, and it will first require a breakthrough “on the ground” — meaning Russian military victories or a collapse of the Zelensky government in Kyiv.

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— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 3:18 AM

Russia’s purpose in engaging the US was to achieve sanctions relief and a halt on damaging attacks on its energy infrastructure to bolster its war effort, not achieve peace. It still thinks it can win.

Trump has been well and truly played by the Kremlin.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 4:22 AM

This was so obviously predictable that I predicted it here.

Russia has used “peace” talks with US to wring out sanctions relief and a halt on damaging attacks on its energy facilities. Meanwhile, Putin is gearing up for fresh ground offensives.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 4:44 AM

From the AP:

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces are preparing to launch a fresh military offensive in the coming weeks to maximize pressure on Ukraine and strengthen the Kremlin’s negotiating position in ceasefire talks, Ukrainian government and military analysts said.

The move could give Russian President Vladimir Putin every reason to delay discussions about pausing the fighting in favor of seeking more land, the Ukrainian officials said this week, renewing their country’s repeated arguments that Russia has no intention of engaging in meaningful dialogue to end the war.

With the spring fighting season drawing near, the Kremlin is eyeing a multi-pronged push across the 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) front line, according to the analysts and military commanders.

Citing intelligence reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is getting ready for new offensives in the northeast in the Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizizhia regions.

“They’re dragging out the talks and trying to get the U.S. stuck in endless and pointless discussions about fake ‘conditions’ just to buy time and then try to grab more land,” Zelenskyy said Thursday in a visit to Paris.

Two G7 diplomatic officials in Kyiv agreed with that assessment. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the press.

Russia has effectively rejected a U.S. proposal for an immediate and full 30-day halt in the fighting, and the feasibility of a partial ceasefire on the Black Sea was thrown into doubt after Kremlin negotiators imposed far-reaching conditions.

Ukrainian military commanders said Russia recently stepped up attacks to improve its tactical positions ahead of the expected broader offensive.

“They need time until May, that’s all,” said Ukrainian military analyst Pavlo Narozhnyi, who works with soldiers and learns about intelligence from them.

In the north, Russian and North Korean soldiers have nearly deprived Kyiv of an essential bargaining chip by retaking most of Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian soldiers staged a daring incursion last year. Battles have also escalated along the eastern front in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.

A concern among some commanders is whether Russia might divert battle-hardened forces from Kursk to other parts of the east.

“It will be hard. The forces from Kursk will come on a high from their wins there,” said a Ukrainian battalion commander in the Donetsk region, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe his concerns.

“They are preparing offensive actions on the front that should last from six to nine months, almost all of 2025,” said Ukrainian military analyst Oleksii Hetman, who has connections to the military’s general staff.

Much more at the link.

Russia spent all day hammering Kharkiv:

Kharkiv is shaking from multiple drone strikes

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 3:10 PM

Kharkiv citizens are spending our Saturday night in the bathrooms or corridors, hiding from Russian drones attacking our city, counting explosions, and hoping the next one won’t be the last sound we ever hear.

Hope your Saturday is going better than ours.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 3:23 PM

Russia is deliberately targeting residential areas of Kharkiv with drones

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 3:27 PM

Kharkiv mayor reported at least one person killed in tonight’s russian drone strike on Kharkiv. The attack is still ongoing, and the number may rise.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 3:31 PM

2 people died.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 3:33 PM

Explosions keep tearing Kharkiv apart—again and again. One of the drones struck a house, killing two people.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 3:39 PM

One of Kharkiv hospitals following tonight’s russian drone attack on the city

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 4:24 PM

Hospital in Kharkiv. So far, at least 15 civilians are reported injured following a massive russian drone attack.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 4:24 PM

The new wave of russian drones is approaching Kharkiv right now‼️ The city was already under attack tonight just hours ago. There are at least one killed person and a lot of injured.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 5:14 PM

Rescue efforts continue at the strike sites as russia unleashes another wave of drones on Kharkiv. The number of injured in has risen to 27, two people were killed.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 5:24 PM

Kharkiv following tonight’s russian drone attack

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 5:54 PM

Kharkiv tonight

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 6:19 PM

As of 11:00 PM EDT/6:00 AM local time in Ukraine, the air raid alert for Kharkiv oblast has just gone back up. It’s been on and off for the past two hours. Sumy has been constant, much of central Ukraine had one, Odesa is up again too.

Best truce ever they said. What could go wrong they said.

Kryvyi Rih:

Russians attacked civilians in Kryvyi Rih with a missile. At the moment, five people are known to have been injured.
–Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration

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— Dr. Michael MacKay (@michaelmackay.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 6:23 AM

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Russia struck Kryvyi Rih with a ballistic missile

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 8:04 AM

ALL CLEAR!!

Russian occupied Mariupol:

🔥 In temporarily occupied Mariupol, partisans set fire to the invaders’ base in the “Right Bank” area.

✊ The arson occurred on March 23, as a result of which several pieces of Russian equipment and ammunition were destroyed.

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 5:06 AM

Dnipro:

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha stated in his X post that today’s strike on Dnipro is Putin’s direct response to Trump’s attempts to negotiate peace.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 8:05 AM

Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Ukrainian drone operators from the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade turned a Russian tank—piled with junk—into scrap. Kupiansk direction, Kharkiv region.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 8:50 AM

The Siversk front:

Russian attack with large numbers of civilian vehicles and motorcycles on the Siversk front.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 4:23 PM

Pokrovsk front:

As said: Russian electric scooters captured by fighters of the 59th Brigade of Ukraine during one of the Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk front. t.me/officer_alex…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 6:03 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Today’s dog of war is one of the guards of the Wild Animals Rescue Center. He scared Zorіana with his appearance, and she forgot his name. But this dog was so playful and kind that, in the end, Zorіana even petted him.

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— Tim Mak (@timkmak.bsky.social) March 29, 2025 at 9:25 AM

Open thread!

Pressure on Russia Is Needed for Diplomacy to Work – Address by the President

28 March 2025 – 19:36

I wish you health!

A brief update on today. There was a Staff meeting. A very detailed discussion on the development of drones in Ukraine, contracts, finances, technical issues, and production. Our task is to clearly increase supplies to the army, as well as maximize the technological advantages of our Ukrainian drones. Today, I received reports on the downing of the “Shahed” drones by interceptor drones – I want to thank everyone who is developing this area. We are working to increase the production of jet-powered and fiber-optic drones – this is extremely important right now, one of the key priorities, and we need sufficient supplies for the troops. We also discussed our missile program today – accelerating production to the maximum. We are also working on establishing domestic production of anti-aircraft missile systems and all necessary air defense systems in Ukraine. These days, during meetings in Europe and earlier in negotiations with other partners, we discussed the localization of production for some air defense systems and missiles for them in Ukraine – this must definitely be achieved. I would like to thank all our partners who support us in this industrial and technological development, and everything we are achieving now in Ukraine will be a joint result for all of Europe – our shared and lasting security.

Today, there was also a separate and detailed report by Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov – particularly regarding support packages from our partners. There are good new agreements. There is also an understanding that a new meeting in the “Ramstein” format should take place as early as April – with Germany and the United Kingdom currently leading the format. We are working on its substantive content. I have instructed Ukraine’s Minister of Defense to present to our American partners all the facts regarding damage to our energy infrastructure caused by Russian attacks. Just in the past 24 hours, there was a targeted Russian drone strike on gas infrastructure in the Poltava region. There was also an artillery strike on Kherson, which damaged the city’s power infrastructure. Also yesterday, one of Russia’s attacks on Kharkiv damaged the city’s heating supply infrastructure. All of this shows that Russia will continue to sabotage diplomacy, and will continue to act in this way, and that Moscow’s only tactic remains dragging out the war. Putin may say things that sound like he agrees with the American side, but in reality, the Russian army just keeps pushing forward with all available military means. Therefore, pressure on Russia is needed to make diplomacy work. Back on March 11, Ukraine accepted the U.S. proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, and since then, Russia has been fully responsible for stalling diplomacy.

Today I also approved several personnel decisions aimed at strengthening our defense capabilities – specifically, the aviation component of the Defense Forces. We had a meeting with representatives from the public sector, the military, and the Office, all of whom were helping develop military aviation. Liliya Averyanova, the mother of Juice, the Hero of Ukraine Andrii Pilschykov, took part in the discussion. Together, we agreed on a new structure to strengthen the aviation component, as well as on specific management and technological steps. Now for the appointments. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine will have a specialized deputy specifically for combat aviation – Oleksandr Kozenko. He has been involved in the integration of the F-16 and Mirage aircraft in Ukraine for a long time. Major General Oleksii Marchenko will now serve as Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine in this particular aviation area, Brigadier General Serhii Holubtsov will be Deputy Commander of the Air Force, and Colonel Oleksandr Diakiv will be Commander of Aviation, Deputy Commander of the Air Force. Clear deadlines have been set for the new management structure to yield more results and motivation to the entire aviation component of the Defense Forces. I thank everyone who is helping! I thank all our warriors!

Glory to Ukraine!

And here is the press conference he did after the leaders’ meeting in Paris yesterday.

Georgia:

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 121

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 1:53 PM

Day 121 continuous. Tonight, people angry at the illegitimate Parliament prosecuting Georgians over the Russian invasion of 2008 fill the avenue.

People chant the famous song “it’s time to F the Georgian Dream.”

#GeorgiaProtests #terrorinGeorgia

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 1:01 PM

“Georgia, revolt!”

Exactly 4 months of daily protests.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 1:21 PM

‪Just tonight I was gonna stay home but okay I cannot complain about the F-ing of GD mood going up 🔥‬

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM

A major protests standoff vibe on Rustaveli is here once again, at multiple exits of the Parliament. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 2:09 PM

1/ In front of the entrance to the Parliament building, citizens are protesting the Georgian Dream parliamentary investigative commission’s “study” of the August 2008 war.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 9:42 AM

2/ Goga Khaindrava, who answered the commission’s questions, was met with protest chants from the crowd. In response, Khaindrava made an insulting gesture toward the demonstrators.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 9:42 AM

3/ Goga Khaindrava served as the State Minister for Conflict Resolution from 2004 to July 2006.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 9:42 AM

Two demonstrators were arrested at a protest near the parliament.

#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 10:15 AM

Both detainees are women. One of them, Tamar Kuratishvili, is holding a banner that reads: ‘Antsukhelidze is immortal.’ Giorgi Antsukhelidze was tortured to death by Russians in 2008. He is a national hero of Georgia.

📸 Mindia Gabadze

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 10:15 AM

“Antsukhelidze is immortal” is the new theme of this added layer of protests.
Context below. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 2:45 PM

Police allegedly detained another protester on Rustaveli Avenue. The window of a police car was shattered during the confrontation.

#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 1:31 PM

Droa Party leader, Helen Khoshtaria, was arrested during a protest in Tbilisi.

#GeorgiaProtests
#TerrorinGeorgia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 12:31 PM

Helen has not been released, unlike several other detainees. She is at a pre-trial detention center. We shall know more in the following hours, I suppose.
Her case should certainly be administrative, unless they blatantly trump-up something, which isn’t impossible either.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 4:25 PM

Update: Helen Khoshtaria has administrative cases of disobedience to the police and “petty hooliganism” for apparently crossing a zebra crossing… (for real).
She’s in detention now and hopefully she isn’t sentenced to a couple of weeks of administrative arrest.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 7:17 PM

The UN:

Ukrainian MFA spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko responded to Putin’s proposal to establish a temporary government in Ukraine under UN auspices: Ukraine proposes a temporary UN governence in Russia, starting with Vorkuta.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 12:16 PM

UN rejects Putin’s call for temporary administration in Ukraine. Guterres says Ukraine’s legitimate gov must be respected, dismissing external governance under UN as part of a peace deal.
news.sky.com/story/ukrain…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 1:10 PM

From Sky News:

As we have reported here today, Vladimir Putin has called for a transitional government under the auspices of the United Nations to be installed in Ukraine as part of any peace deal.

This suggestion had already been rejected by Washington and has now, unsurprisingly, received a similar response from the UN itself.

The organisation’s Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said today that Ukraine had a legitimate government that must be respected.

Russia:

We normally think Russian nuclear threats in 2022-25 worked in keeping the West out. Dima Adamsky argues: “The main lesson that the Russian expert community has learned is that its pre-2022 deterrence strategy and the posture supporting it are obsolete.” direct.mit.edu/isec/article…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 10:11 AM

“Russia’s main priorities are to restore its coercive credibility, to refine nuclear coercion for conventional scenarios that threaten Russia’s vital interests, and to develop a coercion strategy for a non-nuclear near-peer competitor.” direct.mit.edu/isec/article…

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— Shashank Joshi (@shashj.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 10:11 AM

From MIT Press Direct:

Here’s the Abstract:

This article traces the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the evolution of the Russian approach to coercion strategy. The article argues that strategic thinking evolves differently in various ideational realms, and that deterrence is not a universal concept. Cultural factors condition how a state approaches coercion strategy and account for differences across cases. The article offers a framework for examining the strategy of coercion and military innovations outside the Western intellectual tradition. Building on evidence from Russian primary sources and the traits of Russian strategic culture, it hypothesizes about the major trends in Russian deterrence strategy for the next decade and shows how the Russian establishment analyzes the failures and successes of Russia’s intra-war coercion. The main lesson that the Russian expert community has learned is that its pre-2022 deterrence strategy and the posture supporting it are obsolete. Russia’s main priorities are to restore its coercive credibility, to refine nuclear coercion for conventional scenarios that threaten Russia’s vital interests, and to develop a coercion strategy for a non-nuclear near-peer competitor.

From the Findings’ section:

This article has three main implications for theory and practice. First, like in other wartime transformations, a complex conceptual-bureaucratic dynamic is likely to influence how Russia reconstitutes its deterrence strategy and theory.93 The major Soviet and Russian military innovations over the last hundred years suggest that intra- and inter-service competitions and nonstrategic considerations will shape Russia’s defense transformation almost as much as strategic-doctrinal deliberations. In previous innovations, several schools of thought and theories of victory have vied for resources and influence.94 Similarly, today, conceptual and organizational incoherencies, suboptimal choices, and nonstrategic considerations may shape Russian innovative thinking, policy choices, and behavior in the realm of strategic deterrence.

If Russia relies even more on its nuclear coercion, the result may be budgetary trade-offs between the conventional and nonconventional realms. Bureaucratic coalitions that compete for resources are likely to emerge. This pattern is not unprecedented. In the 1990s, similar circumstances produced clashes within the defense establishment on budget allocations, state armaments programs, and military reform.95 Bureaucratic competitions during military transformations are a universal phenomenon. What is unique to Russia is that these rivalries express themselves in competing “scientific visions.” Thus, it is likely that Russian experts will present conflicting conceptions about the emerging character of war and how to adjust Russia’s deterrence.96

The current war is also reshaping who has influence within the Russian strategic community, not least because of the reshuffling of the defense elite. In an era of austerity and against the backdrop of an emerging military aristocracy, the brass from the conventional and nuclear services are likely to compete for resources and influence. As of this writing, the contours of these new conceptual-bureaucratic coalitions are just emerging. The competitive dynamic between these schools of thought will also inform how Russia transforms its strategic deterrence. Scholars who study Russia, international security, or comparative politics may wish to factor the above propositions into their analyses.

The second practical implication relates to the dangers of escalation in the era of integrated deterrence. During the Cold War, there was an asymmetry in the strategic competition that unfolded: The United States leaned heavily on deterrence strategy and developed the theory supporting it, whereas the Soviet Union, despite buying into the logic of mutual assured destruction, regarded deterrence and limited nuclear war as doctrinal heresy. The contemporary situation is different; both states are competing to learn about the operational art of deterrence and doubling down on the integrated approach to this strategy.

Whatever officials on both sides of the Atlantic mean by integrated deterrence, it is a buzzword in the communities of practice in the United States and NATO. Moreover, the current move toward integration in the West is catching up with deterrence à la russe.97 Over the last thirty years, the Russian concept of strategic deterrence has focused on integrating coercive programs across nonmilitary and military domains. Western pundits have already explored the risks of inadvertent escalation that have arisen in the current era.98 This article has highlighted another potential source of such escalation. I suggest that when competitors from different strategic cultures use an integrated approach to coercion against one other, the chances of misperception, miscommunication, and inadvertent escalation increase exponentially. One of the main features of the integrated approach is a capacity for asymmetrical moves—that is, responding to friction in one domain with tools from another. Arguably, NATO’s and Russia’s inclination toward integrated deterrence increases the chances of crossing the culmination point (i.e., it can cause both sides to overreact).

For example, Russia’s strategy is to use nuclear coercion to compensate for its conventional inferiorities. Western political warfare—or what Moscow views as informational coercion against Russia’s collective mentality—is more of a menace for the Kremlin than nuclear or conventional threats. Moscow perceives political warfare as a threat to Russia’s vital interests and even as an existential threat reminiscent of its biggest strategic defeat—the collapse of the Soviet Union. Many Russians believe that this was a success of Western informational subversion, since all the Soviet nuclear and conventional arsenals remained intact. Thus, the Kremlin is likely to counter asymmetrically (using cyber, kinetic, or nuclear measures) if it assumes that it is incapable of retaliating in kind and feels cornered. Yet Moscow’s red lines and the level of unacceptable damage by non-nuclear actors against it that may provoke Russian nuclear reaction, intentionally or inadvertently, remain a conundrum.99

This article also makes a theoretical contribution to the literatures on military innovations and nuclear strategy. Battlefields in Ukraine and in the Middle East have become laboratories for learning about the current character of war and have stimulated an interest in conventional and nuclear intra-war coercion worldwide.

Although it is still unknown what lessons Russia will draw about the new norms of using military force, it is clear that actors from different military traditions may look at the same wars but ask different questions or give different answers to the same queries.100 The lessons for the operational art of deterrence from the Russian-Ukrainian War and from the Israeli operations in the Middle East since October 2023 are likely to vary too. This variance matters—I argue that there will be a repertoire of theories about coercion rather than a universal strategy. For example, some Russian defense intellectuals are calling for Russia to develop an indigenous non-Western theory of deterrence and diffuse it among communities of practice in the Global South.101 A competition of learning about the operational art of deterrence among current and potential members of the nuclear club is gathering momentum. I suggest that China, Iran, and Russia have merged into a knowledge-sharing community on the matter of cross-domain coercion.

Meanwhile in Russia, the pipe worship continues… According to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, another pipe has been placed near a Russian church and consecrated. Now Russians are crawling inside for “purification” and to “receive grace.”

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 8:00 AM

This is not a healthy society and culture.

Lot of that going around these days.

Back to Ukraine.

Typical Russian pattern of behavior is:

– make a deal
– break a deal
– blame Ukraine

Overnight, russia attacked Ukrainian energy company ‘Naftogaz’. Today, Peskov blamed Ukraine for the failure of energy ceasefire and basically pulled out of it.

Welcome to deals with russia.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 9:10 AM

Ukraine’s Naftogaz says Russia hit their sites overnight, damaging gas output. It’s the 18th strike since 2022, 8th this year. No one’s hurt, but losses are being tallied.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 7:28 AM

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has reached new deals with several European allies to deepen intelligence co-operation as he rejected Donald Trump’s latest proposal to take control of Ukrainian assets.

on.ft.com/3XCd9D5

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) March 28, 2025 at 6:05 PM

From The Financial Times:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has reached new deals with several European allies to deepen intelligence co-operation as he rejected Donald Trump’s latest proposal to take control of Ukrainian assets.

Speaking to reporters in Kyiv’s presidential palace on Friday, Zelenskyy said intelligence sharing was critical for Ukraine to defend against Russia’s attacks and target its forces. Kyiv has been seeking alternatives after the US cut access to intelligence and military aid for a week earlier this month.

Zelenskyy declined to provide details but said that “this is a European initiative — expanding Ukraine’s access to intelligence, access to relevant technologies, satellites that our European colleagues have”.

He said Kyiv’s European partners planned to announce new defence packages at an April 11 meeting hosted by Germany and the UK, to be held in the Ramstein format set up to co-ordinate military supplies to Ukraine.

Kyiv and its European partners agreed in Paris on Thursday to license the joint production of air defence systems and artillery, he added.

Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine had received from the Trump administration an expansive new draft proposal for a critical minerals, energy and infrastructure deal, but described it as “entirely different” from one agreed in previous talks.

Relations between Ukraine and its most significant ally have been rocky as Trump re-establishes relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and seeks Ukrainian agreement for income streams that he considers recompense for past US military aid.

Zelenskyy said he wanted “to get a review from lawyers at the highest level” of the new deal before agreeing to anything.

A senior Ukrainian official said on Thursday that a team of legal advisers had been brought in to help the government examine the document as it prepared a counter-offer.

The Trump administration had sought to formalise long-term access to Ukrainian mineral and energy resources, which are now seen as vital to Trump’s efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and make a dent in China’s domination of critical minerals in particular.

But Ukrainian officials are wary of deals that they fear could undermine their nation’s sovereignty, send profits abroad and disrupt its integration with the EU.

“We cannot accept any arrangement that undermines our EU path,” Zelenskyy said.

More at the link.

When an “unprecedented” cyberattack hit the computer networks of Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) on March 23, the company’s staff gave up any idea of getting a good night’s sleep for the foreseeable future.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 28, 2025 at 5:20 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

When an “unprecedented” cyberattack hit the computer networks of Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) on March 23, the company’s staff gave up any idea of getting a good night’s sleep for the foreseeable future.

“Everyone is working around the clock. This is no joke,” Anastasia Zolotaryova, Ukrzaliznytsia spokesperson told the Kyiv Independent on March 26, already spending her fourth day straight at Kyiv’s main train station.

“Our IT workers have slept only two hours in the past day. They step out to rest when they have no strength left and then return to continue restoration efforts,” she added.

What was initially described as a “technical failure” was on March 24 confirmed to be a “large-scale and sophisticated cyberattack” carried out by ‘the enemy,’” according to Ukrzaliznytsia.

The company’s website and app crashed making online ticket purchases impossible, and leaving anyone with only digital copies of previously bought tickets in limbo.

For a country at war where commercial aviation is prohibited, disruption on such a vital travel network threatened country-wide chaos.

“The primary goal of the attackers, obviously, was to stop the rail from running,” Oleksandr Shevchenko, deputy head of Ukrzaliznytsia, told the Kyiv Independent.

“Because the railway in Ukraine these days transports everything from the military and the wounded and to the evacuation of the civilians, and international diplomats as well.”

It would take “89 hours of non-stop work” to get the computer systems back online, and even now the company’s servers are struggling with demand. But if the hackers aim was to cripple Ukraine’s railway network, it fell far short of success — over the past four days, 96% of Ukrainian railway trains still arrived on time.

That’s not to say it had no effect — for those wanting to book tickets, or those trying to recover lost digital copies, it meant long waits in lines at train stations across the country.

At Kyiv’s main railway station on March 26, 27 ticket offices were open, with special windows available for military personnel and people with disabilities.

Some ticket clerks had been working continuously for several days, spending nights at the station.

To cover staff shortages, workers were brought from less busy stations in cities like Bila Tserkva, 90 kilometers away.

Yet such was demand that queues were still hours-long.

Tetiana Bairak, 51, a senior sergeant from the 99th Brigade, came to secure a ticket for her transfer to the long-awaited position in the 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment.

“As a military person, I’m comfortable anywhere — in a dugout, in the field, in a tent. Standing in line and getting to my destination so that the war ends faster is no problem, we are patient,” she told the Kyiv Independent.

More at the link.

Dinpro:

Every evening at 9 pm mad Russian roulette starts for Ukraine — no one knows which city they’ll target next. Tonight it’s Dnipro. Massive drone attack has set a riverside resort on fire.
More drones in the air

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— Maria Avdeeva (@mariainkharkiv.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 4:31 PM

Hell on earth. Dnipro right now. Terror is russia’s strategy.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 4:24 PM

Russia murdered at least 4 people in Dnipro just hours ago and injured 19 others.

Just like that, those lives are gone for no reason other than terror.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 7:37 PM

It seems the russian forces heroically took down a formidable enemy vessel—a hotel and restaurant complex in Dnipro.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 5:01 PM

Fascist Russia strikes strategic restaurant and hotel complex in Dnipro, democratic Ukraine.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 4:27 PM

Currently, four civilians have been reported dead in Dnipro. More than 15 people have been reported injured, with the number expected to rise.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 5:57 PM

The Kyiv Indpendent has the details:

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

A Russian drone attack on March 28 killed four people and injured at least 19 in the city of Dnipro, sparking a large fire at a hotel and restaurant complex as well as almost 10 private residences.

Regional Governor Serhii Lysak said three of the wounded are in critical condition.

Over 20 drones targeted the city, though most were shot down. Several high-rises were damaged in the strike, according to local authorities.  First responders have been dispatched to the site of the attack.

Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, has served as a key logistics and humanitarian hub during the full-scale war. The city has been a frequent target of intensified Russian attacks.

Ukraine has already agreed to a U.S.-proposed full 30-day ceasefire, saying on March 11 that Kyiv is ready to take such a step if Russia also agrees to the terms. So far, Russia has refused.

Kharkiv:

Some distant explosions in Kharkiv. Russian drones are swarming our region right now.

God, I’m so tired of this. They never stop trying to kill us.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 7:33 PM

Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast:

At night, Russian forces attacked Zolochiv in the Kharkiv region with four kamikaze drones.

One of the drones destroyed a house, ten more houses and power grids were damaged.

.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 8:43 AM

Socond hit the territory of the Zolochiv hospital, damaging ambulances and the third floor of the therapeutic department. there were no casualties.

The fourth drone fell in an open area, and another one was shot down by air defense forces on the outskirts of the settlement

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 8:43 AM

Kherson:

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

Kherson: it was apocalyptic even by this city standards.

Cars aflame. Drones zooming. Non-stop explosions.

37 artillery shells
human safari
civilians targeted
a train hit

💔2 killed
💔6 injured

Please watch a video report on my FB, IG or X. I don’t have time to reformat it for here, sadly.

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— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) March 27, 2025 at 6:30 PM

Here is my report for @euromaidanpress.bsky.social euromaidanpress.com/2025/03/27/f…

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— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) March 27, 2025 at 6:35 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

Russia’s terror against civilians in Kherson has now reached unprecedented levels. The terrifying “human safari” tactics, in which Russian killer drones target Ukrainian civilians across the Dnipro River, have now followed an artillery bombardment to create a deadly “double tap” combination.

This calculated approach first drives civilians to take cover from shell fire, then hunts them with drones as they flee – all while specifically targeting ambulances and rescue workers responding to the initial casualties. On 27 March 2025, this deadly innovation turned downtown Kherson into an apocalyptic scene of black smoke, scattered bodies, and civilians trapped without power or water as they counted two dead and six wounded.

The assault severed power and water supplies across the city and damaged critical infrastructure including the train station.

The assault began in the early morning with drone attacks on civilians. A 68-year-old woman was killed by a “human safari” drone, while a 59-year-old man sustained injuries and was hospitalized. Another victim, an 82-year-old woman, suffered a contusion and head wounds. Olha, a Kherson resident and a family grocery store owner, like many, could not leave her home, and lost the Internet and power.

A gas pipeline caught fire following a strike, and as emergency responders worked to extinguish the blaze, drones targeted them.

Just past midday, Russian forces intensified their assault, launching nearly 40 artillery shells into downtown Kherson between 12:30 and 14:30. Black smoke covered the sky as a disturbing new tactic emerged: artillery shelling combined with a coordinated drone hunt for civilians and first responders. Reconnaissance, kamikaze, and “skid” drones buzzed through the air, dropping explosives at near-constant intervals of about every five minutes.

By 13:00, the city had lost power. The railway station square resembled a war film. Power cables hung from shattered poles. A vehicle was burned on its side. Debris littered the roads and sidewalks. The train station, already damaged from previous attacks, took another hit—windows, previously covered with plywood, were once again shattered. Water supply infrastructure and electrical cables suffered additional damage.

A Kherson–Lviv train was struck, and one wagon sustained damage. Passengers and staff had taken shelter, preventing further casualties. The strike delayed the train’s departure by 1.5 hours.

More at the link

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Russia has intensified assault operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector, increasing pressure on Ukraine’s southern positions; The European Union is preparing its 17th package of sanctions against Russia; and more.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 28, 2025 at 4:26 PM

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Russia has intensified assault operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector, increasing pressure on Ukraine’s southern positions, Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn said on March 28 during Ukraine’s state-run telethon.

The Ukrainian military reported escalating hostilities and a rise in attacks on key areas. Zaporizhzhia Oblast holds strategic importance for Russia, underscoring its efforts to advance in the region.

Voloshyn said Russia seeks to strengthen its position ahead of potential truce or ceasefire negotiations. “The Russians want to get as much of a head start or advance as much as possible in Zaporizhzhia Oblast,” he said.

According to the spokesperson, Russian forces have massed troops for assault operations using small infantry groups. This tactic, deployed in other sectors, has yielded some results in Zaporizhzhia, particularly near Orikhiv and Hulyaypole.

The number of such attacks has risen significantly since the beginning of spring, Voloshyn said.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in southeastern Ukraine, borders Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the north, Donetsk Oblast to the east, and Kherson Oblast to the south. It is also home to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, one of Europe’s largest.

Russian forces partially control the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Moscow claims to have annexed the entire territory of these regions in 2022, despite failing to control the regional capitals of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

A Kremlin-linked official told the Moscow Times that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford to lose these territories politically, making their retention a priority at any cost.

While a ceasefire and peace deal could freeze the war along current front lines, Ukraine is unlikely to recognize Russian-occupied territories as legally part of Russia.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Even in an imaginary “full encirclement” in Kursk, Ukrainian forces are shredding RF officers. Marat Tybilov, call sign “Talib,” got a “Gold Star” from Putin a month ago—thanks to Putin, he’s now a dead “hero”!

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 7:08 AM

The Belgorod cross border offensive:

Meanwhile, the Russians continue to whine about the critical mass of Ukrainian drones. This time, it’s in the Belgorod region. The author of the text shares the impression that Ukrainians are definitely exceeding their plan to produce 1 million drones per year.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 3:24 PM

Sky News has the details:

Just as Ukrainian forces are losing their foothold in the pocket of Russia’s Kursk region they captured last year, they have staged a so-far little-publicised incursion into the adjacent Belgorod region, according to Russian military bloggers.

Several Russian military correspondents reported today that Ukrainian troops were inside Belgorod and fighting battles with Russian forces there.

Neither Kyiv nor Moscow has confirmed the reports, though Russia’s defence ministry said 10 days ago that its forces had thwarted five Ukrainian attempts to push across the border in Belgorod.

Ukraine’s military has not commented on any thrust into Belgorod region by Kyiv’s forces, though that could be for operational security reasons.

Andrii Kovalenko, an official at Ukraine’s National Defence and Security Council, suggested in a statement earlier this month that Ukrainian forces could act in the Belgorod region, “neutralising threats” from Russian forces that might mass near the border.

And Rybar, a Russian military blog with 1.3 million subscribers, said there had been heavy clashes in a settlement called Popovka and each side was hitting the other with drones. Another Telegram account, Two Majors, said Russian forces were conducting “defensive operations”.

“There are constant strikes on concentrations of Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the enemy still has serious offensive potential for this direction and has not abandoned plans for further breakthroughs, including in new areas of the front,” it said.

A third military blog, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, reported fighting in a village called Demidovka and said some Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded there.

The accounts have not been independently confirmed.

The Ukrainian operation may be an attempt to distract Russian forces as they try to drive out the last Ukrainian forces from next-door Kursk. One of the Russian blogs, Rybar, said Russia had moved reinforcements to Belgorod from Goptarovka in the Kursk region.

Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Finnish-based Black Bird Group, said Ukrainian forces had penetrated the first Russian defences and advanced most likely to a depth of 3-4 km (1.9 to 2.5 miles).

But he said it was unlikely that they could stage a serious breakthrough and threaten any important Russians logistical routes or cities.

“The Ukrainians can, in theory, take some more villages from the border area, but that’s not what a breakthrough means – it’d be a small tactical success, but there’s very little to be achieved in the Demidovka direction at operational or strategic level,” he said.

“There’s no proper element of surprise, and the Russian presence in the area is strong enough to at least conduct mostly successful defensive operations.”

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material

🫂🐶 “Do not tremble, my little one, I am your shield,” and in that moment his battle-hardened hands become for the doggie a cradle of hope shining through the darkness of war. It is a fleeting collision of souls where humanity blossoms amidst chaos.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) March 28, 2025 at 7:22 PM

Open thread!