How Russia Behaves in the Coming Days Will Reveal a Lot, if Not Everything – Address by the President

25 March 2025 – 20:20

I wish you health!

First of all, today my congratulations go to the Security Service of Ukraine, to all our SSU warriors – today is their professional day. So we congratulate and thank all those who protect the security of our state and do absolutely everything to ensure that Russia’s plans do not succeed. This is exactly what our Security Service of Ukraine does. It stops the occupier, destroys the occupier, and inflicts the necessary strikes on the occupier. It neutralizes agents and Russian saboteurs. It is very important that the Security Service of Ukraine has truly become a combat-ready special service. Today I honored the warriors with state awards – thanking them personally.

Also today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report on the front, the Kursk operation, and our results. I am grateful to all units for their resilience. Over the past few days, some much-needed things have been achieved at the front. Thank you, warriors. We need Ukraine’s strong position in this, in everything – starting with the battlefield. We also need diplomacy to be strong.

Today, I have been in touch all day with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov, the head of our technical delegation at the talks in Saudi Arabia. Good meetings were held with the American side both yesterday and today. I would like to thank Saudi Arabia and the Crown Prince for their mediation and hospitality – everything was done to a high standard. The agreements were reached, and they are quite specific. It has been agreed with the American side that a ceasefire in our energy sector can begin today – we believe that once the respective statement on the results of the meetings and all the work of the teams today is published, the transition to silence regarding the energy sector can begin. The teams also discussed ways to restore greater security to the Black Sea and normal navigation. For Ukraine, the release of our people from Russian captivity – our military, our civilians, as well as our children who were forcibly taken by the Russian occupiers – is of fundamental importance. I am grateful to America for its readiness to assist in these humanitarian issues, and this is reflected in our statement with the American side.

Ukraine is ready to work as swiftly as possible and with absolute transparency to end the war. But, unfortunately, right now, right today, right on the day of the talks, we see how the Russians have already started to manipulate. They are already trying to distort the agreements and actually deceive our mediators and the whole world. There are absolutely clear statements published by the White House. Everyone can see what they say. And there is something that the Kremlin is lying about again: that allegedly the silence in the Black Sea depends on the issue of sanctions, and that allegedly the start date for the silence in the energy sector is March 18. Moscow always lies. And it depends on the world – on all those who truly need peace – whether Moscow will be allowed to lie again.

We in Ukraine will do everything to ensure that the agreements work out and that there are no strikes. But the Russians must know and must realize: if they carry out strikes, they will face a strong response. And they will bear the responsibility. And if the Russians later try to spin tales, claiming the strikes were not on energy or civilian infrastructure, everyone will see the truth. I also want to remind everyone that since March 11, the U.S. proposal has been on the table for a full and unconditional ceasefire – everywhere, not just on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea. It was Russia that refused to accept it. It is Russia’s stance that is prolonging this war. When Putin didn’t say “yes” to an unconditional ceasefire, no new sanctions were imposed on Russia. Now Moscow is making some demands about lifting part of the sanctions, despite having spent the last three years insisting that sanctions are not harmful to them, but rather beneficial. But if this agreement also fails, if Russians do not fulfill the terms of today’s agreements and instead try once again to pressure the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine, then I believe there should be only one response: definitely new sanctions, definitely more pressure.

How Russia behaves in the coming days will reveal a lot, if not everything. If there are air raid alerts again, if there is renewed military activity in the Black Sea, if Russian manipulations and threats continue – then new measures will need to be taken, specifically against Moscow. Diplomacy must work. And from the Ukrainian side, we are doing everything to make that happen. I would like to thank everyone who is helping us. I am grateful to the United States for the efforts of our teams, for their constructive and effective work. Now, results are needed from Russia. We do not trust them. And frankly, the world doesn’t trust Russia. And they must prove that they are truly ready to end the war, ready to stop lying to the world, stop lying to President Trump, and stop lying to America.

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska addressed tge “How Are You?: Insights and Lessons Learned” meeting focused on the implementation of the All-Ukrainian Mental Health Program at the community level. Here’s the video:

President Zelenskyy also held a press conference regarding the “negotiations” in Jeddah.

Georgia:

I took this today, on Day 118, as people were beginning to gather. Georgians usually wave flags in gratitude. Germany has just imposed additional travel bans on regime representatives.
The two with the UK and Ukrainian flags are there every single day. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 2:55 PM

I hear more and more from foreigners that protests in Georgia “have ended.” (???)

Excuse me? Refresh your feeds, please.

We protest every night for 4 months and more people come out whenever there’s some incident, however minor. 1/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 11:59 AM

True, we need more energized forms, but we are as angry as ever and we demonstrate it through continuity. This, in turn, prevents “business as usual” to be the case both at home and abroad. 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 11:59 AM

From time to time, we have bigger ones, such as on the 22nd now in support of the MEGOBARI Act in the US Congress or the upcoming March 31 one on the anniversary of Georgia’s referendum on the restoration of independence. 3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 11:59 AM

If anyone’s comparing it to other protests, also keep in mind who else in Europe is currently being tortured, banned, imprisoned, & fined 4x times the national median salary for just protesting – and multiple times too. Maybe then those protests would shrink in size as well.

#GeorgiaProtests 4/4.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 11:59 AM

A blocked Rustaveli avenue is the best place for a nighttime read. 📖

Day 118 of nonstop protests in Georgia.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 1:44 PM

The 5th President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, delivered a speech in the Lithuanian Seimas, urging lawmakers to take action. She stated that if Europe does not act now and allows Georgia to fall back into Russia’s hands, it will be a strategic catastrophe for all of Europe.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 7:55 AM

In Georgia, Russia is testing new ways of takeover, the less costly one than a direct military invasion. With hybrid warfare, electoral manipulation, economic coercion and internal takeovers, Russia can remove governments and replace them with authoritarian projects. 1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

It has already tried to do so in Romania and Moldova, and pushing for elections in Ukraine served the same purpose, since Russia cannot achieve its aims militarily. Back in 2008, Georgia was once again the first testing ground for Russia – in a military invasion. 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

If 🇪🇺 that is now rediscovering its strength and the need for strategic autonomy cannot find ways to have leverage on a small candidate country with a massively pro-🇪🇺 population, and if it cannot manage its own decision-making so as not to be paralyzed by few, 🇪🇺’s credibility will be in question. 3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

The Black Sea should be the sea of cooperation, hence stability & security. 🇷🇺 is moving its naval base in the occupied 🇬🇪 town of Ochamchire, and the Anaklia Deep Sea Port has been handed over by the pro-🇷🇺 regime to the 🇨🇳. 🇮🇷 influences are also expanding in the region under one man’s capture of 🇬🇪. 4/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:53 AM

The Caucasus is at a tipping point, and we need a democratic, European Georgia to also secure Armenia’s prosperous future, since Russia tries economic, military threats and hybrid warfare to prevent Armenia’s Western turn. 5/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

Europe needs Georgia as the anchor in the region for prosperity in the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and the energy transit and connectivity with Central Asia. Vast European and American resources have been poured into these projects for decades. 6/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

“In today’s Georgia, believing in democracy is enough to put you behind bars.”

“Repression has become the only and exclusive policy,” since Georgia no longer has any viable economic, social, or foreign policy direction or projects.” 7/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

“Systemic destruction of democracy [in Georgia] that carries within it the de facto annihilation of the state…
Georgia’s independence itself is under siege.” 8/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

WHAT EUROPE CAN DO👇🏻

Europe should take a closer look at the financial network supporting this regime which today is helping Russia to make Georgia the sanctions evasion hub.
The Offshore Law that flew under Europe’s radar enables sanctioned oligarchs and all kinds of traffic[king]. 9/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

Sanctions should be not just punitive but set in a political strategy that is lacking today. Make the sanctions a part of real conditionality policy, linking them to the demand of new elections and a clear calendar. 10/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

The de facto non-recognition policy undertaken by Europe towards the Georgian Dream should now be superseded with clear support to the only peaceful and known way out of the standoff that is entering its 5th month – new, free and fair Parliamentary elections. 11/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

If this is not the case, then 🇬🇪 either falls into the 🇷🇺 dominance and the 🇷🇺 style of governance, which would be not just a tragedy for 🇬🇪 but a strategic disaster for 🇪🇺, or this entire regime becomes volatile and unstable, a logical continuation of long-standing, deep and unresolved crises. 12/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

In addition, civil society and dissent in Georgia should be supported through extraordinary means, since their very survival is at stake.

“If we stand together, we will not only save Georgia, but we will preserve security and integrity of Europe itself.” 13/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:53 AM

The President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, at the Lithuanian Seimas today.

The President thanked Lithuania for its unwavering support of the people of Georgia for decades and beyond! 14/14.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 8:54 AM

1/ Opposition party Lelo leader Mamuka Khazaradze, who refused to attend a parliamentary investigative commission session, may face prosecution.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 5:53 AM

2/ The parliamentary commission established by Georgian Dream, which is tasked with studying “the activities of the regime in power from 2003 to 2012, as well as the political officials of that period,” voted to refer Khazaradze’s absence to the Prosecutor’s Office.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 5:53 AM

3/ According to the Criminal Code, failure to comply with the committee’s request can result in a fine or up to one year in prison.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 5:53 AM

4/ Today, the investigative commission is also expecting Badri Japaridze, another leader of Khazaradze’s party. If he refuses to appear, he too may face criminal liability.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 5:53 AM

5/ Despite the potential criminal liability, another leader of opposition party Lelo, Badri Japaridze has also decided not to attend the parliamentary investigative commission session.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 7:53 AM

The EU:

How Trump blew up the world order – and left Europe scrabbling

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— Unofficial BBCNews (World) Bot (@bbcnews-world-rss.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 9:01 PM

From the (official) BBC News:

The United States, traditionally isolationist and safely sheltered by two vast oceans, had emerged from World War Two as the leader of the free world. As America projected its power around the globe, it spent the post-war decades remaking much of the world in its own image.

The baby boomer generation grew up in a world that looked, sounded and behaved more like the United States than ever before. And it became the western world’s cultural, economic and military hegemon.

Yet the fundamental assumptions on which the United States has based its geostrategic ambitions now look set to change.

Donald Trump is the first US President since World War Two to challenge the role that his country set for itself many decades ago. And he is doing this in such a way that, to many, the old world order appears to be over – and the new world order has yet to take shape.

The question is, which nations will step forward? And, with the security of Europe under greater strain than at any time almost in living memory, can its leaders, who are currently scrabbling around, find an adequate response?

President Trump’s critique of the post-1945 international order dates back decades. Nearly 40 years ago he took out full-page advertisements in three US newspapers to criticise the United States’ commitment to the defence of the world’s democracies.

“For decades, Japan and other nations have been taking advantage of the United States,” he wrote in 1987. “Why are these nations not paying the United States for the human lives and billions of dollars we are losing to protect their interests?

“The world is laughing at America’s politicians as we protect ships we don’t own, carrying oil we don’t need, destined for allies who won’t help.”

It’s a position he has repeated since his second inauguration.

And the fury felt by some in his administration for what they perceive as European reliance on the United States was apparently shown in the leaked messages about air strikes on Houthis in Yemen that emerged this week.

In the messages, an account named Vice-President JD Vance wrote that European countries might benefit from the strikes. It said: “I just hate bailing Europe out again.”

Another account, identified as Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, responded three minutes later: “VP: I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.”

Trump’s own position appears to go beyond criticising those he says are taking advantage of the United State’s generosity. At the start of his second presidency, he seemed to embrace Russian President Vladimir Putin, telling Russia that Ukraine would not be granted Nato membership and that it should not expect to get back the territory it has lost to Russia.

Many saw this as giving away two major bargaining chips before talks had even started. He apparently asked Russia for nothing in return.

On the flipside, certain Trump supporters see in Putin a strong leader who embodies many of the conservative values they themselves share.

To some, Putin is an ally in a “war on woke”.

The United States’ foreign policy is now driven, in part at least, by the imperatives of its culture wars. The security of Europe has become entangled in the battle between two polarised and mutually antagonistic visions of what the United States stands for.

Some think the division is about more than Trump’s particular views and that Europe can not just sit tight waiting for his term in office to end.

“The US is becoming divorced from European values,” argues Ed Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London. “That’s difficult [for Europeans] to swallow because it means that it’s structural, cultural and potentially long-term. “

“I think the current trajectory of the US will outlast Trump, as a person. I think Trumpism will outlast his presidency.”

The Trump White House has said it will no longer be the primary guarantor of European security, and that European nations should be responsible for their own defence and pay for it.

“If [Nato countries] don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them. No, I’m not going to defend them,” the president said earlier this month.

For almost 80 years, the cornerstone of European security has been embedded in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that an attack on one member state of the alliance is an attack on all.

In Downing Street last month, just before his visit to the White House, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told me during an interview that he was satisfied that the United States remained the leading member of Nato and that Trump personally remained committed to Article 5.

Others are less sure.

Ben Wallace, who was defence secretary in the last Conservative government, told me earlier this month: “I think Article 5 is on life support.

“If Europe, including the United Kingdom, doesn’t step up to the plate, invest a lot on defence and take it seriously, it’s potentially the end of the Nato that we know and it’ll be the end of Article 5.

“Right now, I wouldn’t bet my house that Article 5 would be able to be triggered in the event of a Russian attack… I certainly wouldn’t take for granted that the United States would ride to the rescue.”

According to polling by the French company Institut Elabe, nearly three quarters of French people now think that the United States is not an ally of France. A majority in Britain and a very large majority in Denmark, both historically pro-American countries, now have unfavourable views of the United States as well.

“The damage Trump has done to Nato is probably irreparable,” argues Robert Kagan, a conservative commentator, author and senior fellow at the Brookings Institute in Washington DC who has been a long time critic of Trump.

“The alliance relied on an American guarantee that is no longer reliable, to say the least”.

And yet Trump is by no means the first US president to tell Europe to get its defence spending in order. In 2016 Barack Obama urged Nato allies to increase theirs, saying: “Europe has sometimes been complacent about its own defence.”

Much more at the link.

Back to Ukraine.

“Destroys targets at sea, on land, and in the air.” – Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, unveiled the secret drone “Katran.”
Equipped with torpedoes, a minigun, a machine gun, MANPADS, and other weaponry, it covers over 1,000 km. Missions remain classified.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 11:36 AM

Ukrainian soldier from the 43rd Mechanized Brigade, having run out of grenades, threw his own helmet at the enemy. The enemy, startled, then ran straight into a burst of automatic fire.
www.facebook.com/share/v/1Fdr…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 10:31 AM

Combat operations of the fighters from the Unmanned Systems Battalion of the 12th Special Forces Brigade “Azov” using fiber-optic drones against the occupiers’ shelters and light equipment.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 7:29 AM

Kurtivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Russia killed a mother and her three-year-old daughter by dropping an air bomb on the village of Kurtivka in Donetsk Oblast. The mother’s 15-year-old daughter was also injured and sustained fractures.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 3:37 PM

Izium, Kharkiv Oblast:

Russia struck Izium in the Kharkiv region with 10 drones overnight.

The same town where mass graves of at least 440 people were discovered after deoccupation is still getting terrorised

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 9:51 AM

Pokrovsk:

Russian forces have resumed their attacks in the Pokrovsk sector in Donetsk Oblast, Mykola Koval, the spokesperson of Ukraine’s National Guard’s Chervona Kalyna brigade, said on March 25.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) March 25, 2025 at 5:17 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian forces have resumed their attacks in the Pokrovsk sector in Donetsk Oblast, Mykola Koval, the spokesperson of Ukraine’s National Guard’s Chervona Kalyna brigade, said on March 25.

The embattled town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast is among the most hotly contested areas of the front. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi previously claimed that 7,000 Russiansoldiers were killed near Pokrovsk in January alone.

In recent weeks, the situation near Pokrovsk has been somewhat stabilized, with the Ukrainian military saying that Russian troops were bogged down near the city.

“Recently, they (Russian soldiers) have become more active. We have successfully repelled the assaults, we are holding the line, but the enemy is trying to break through our defense line and reach our positions and gain a foothold in some positions daily,” Koval told Kyiv24 Channel.

According to the spokesperson, the Russian military attacks Ukrainian positions “as at the beginning of the active phase” in the Pokrovsk sector, involving more first-person-view (FPV) drones and artillery, as well as infantry.

“And it’s very difficult to deter the enemy with such an influx,” he added.

Earlier this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia is attempting renewed offensives in various parts of the front line, including in Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

In recent weeks, Kyiv has also reportedly lost much of the territory captured during the operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Luhansk Oblast:

In Luhansk region, fighters of RUBPAK “Phoenix” thwarted an enemy assault and destroyed the occupiers’ equipment.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 12:22 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight.

Here is some adjacent material.

Your daily Patron!

Ukrainian defender and his fighting cat Syringe 💙😻
A well-deserved rest, after a successfully completed combat mission.
Children’s drawings create a special coziness 😍
Have a cozy rest, just do not forget that you need to work effectively, then the rest will be qualitative! 😉

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) March 25, 2025 at 3:09 PM

Open thread!