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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

The revolution will be supervised.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

All hail the time of the bunny!

We do not need to pander to people who do not like what we stand for.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

You cannot shame the shameless.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. do not touch it.”

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

We know you aren’t a Democrat but since you seem confused let me help you.

I’m more christian than these people and i’m an atheist.

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

Their shamelessness is their super power.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

How the Opposition Should Oppose

by @heymistermix.com|  November 26, 20241:27 pm| 114 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

How the Opposition Should Oppose
Another good idea for opposition…

Kay made a good comment in the last post:

An opposition could simply repeat Trump’s broken promises over and over for two years. They don’t even have to address Trump voters directly at all. Is gas under 2 dollars a gallon? Are interest rates at 2? Is there world peace? Is Trumpcare in place? Are food prices at 2016 levels? Why not?

There was a lot of complaining in the comments a week or two ago when Bernie said that he’d support Trump’s effort to lower credit card interest rates.  There was less noise when Fetterman said this:

“If Dr. Oz is about protecting and preserving Medicare and Medicaid, I’m voting for the dude,” Mr. Fetterman, D-Pa., said on the social media site X.

Neither of those statements really bothered me because I think they’re part of a strategy to hold Trump and his appointees to their word.  Note that I distinguish saying “I’ll vote for some nominee  if they pledge to do (some specific good thing that’s the basis of their appointment)” or “I’ll vote for (some specific good thing Trump wants)” from “Man, RFK Jr. has a few good ideas”.  That’s because the former types of statements are basically the sleeves of a vest in negotiating terms — they are statements about things that will probably never happen with huge amounts of wiggle room. For example, Dr. Oz’  appointment is to oversee Centers for Medicare and Medicaid services. There are a million ways Fetterman can say that Oz won’t preserve those two programs and therefore deserves a no vote.  Similarly, Bernie’s statement sets him up to be publicly disappointed when Trump doesn’t follow through on his promise.

Even though I think there’s a positive strategy behind comments like Bernie’s or Fetterman’s, I think we can do better.  On this point, Steve M makes a good observation:

Want to try holding Trump to this [credit card rate] promise? Introduce a bill to lower credit card interest rates — and put Trump’s name on it.

Sanders and Warren should write a bill limit credit card interest rates and call it the Donald Trump Credit Card Sanity Act. They should put Trump’s September quote in a “Whereas” paragraph at the beginning of the bill. They should dare him to oppose a bill with his name on it. Dare Senate Republicans to oppose a bill named after him.

I know, I know — most mainstream economists, across the political spectrum, oppose limits on credit card fees, because they make it less likely that banks will offer cards to poorer people. Last year, when Senator Josh Hawley, of all people, introduced a bill to limit credit card interest rates, the bill went nowhere and had no co-sponsors, not even Sanders or Warren.

But if you want to make the point, don’t sit around waiting for Trump not to act. Actively hold him to his word, and do it in an attention-getting, headline-grabbing way.

Trump didn’t just get elected because of his hateful base.  Low information “vibes voters” who have memories of a goldfish thought that what Trump said about inflation and credit card rates sounded good.  We can shit on those voters all we want, but we need to convince some of them, as well as convince our voters who didn’t turn out, that if/when we have power, we’ll actually do some of the popular things Trump promised.  Proposing legislation and keeping track of broken promises — in a noisy, consistent and sustained fashion — are two ways to do that.

How the Opposition Should OpposePost + Comments (114)

The Tariffs

by @heymistermix.com|  November 26, 202411:52 am| 123 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Auto Draft 121

There was a lot of noise made yesterday by Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for reasons of fentanyl and blah blah blah (not an exact quote).

So there are a number of possibilities:

  1. A fucking liar does something that he says he’s going to do, exactly how he’s going to do it.  That would be a first, prices go way up, and people go apeshit about $6 avocados and $3 tomatoes.
  2. Like a kid touching a stove, he tries a tariff or two, his donors/advisors go apeshit, and he backs off immediately.
  3. He doesn’t do it at all, but picks on some minor concessions from Canada and Mexico and says “look how my primo negotiation skills got us something for nothing”.

My vote is for 3, but are any of the above really horrible?  Mass deportations with concentration camps is horrible.  Women bleeding out in parking lots because doctors are afraid to provide life saving care is horrible.  Violence against trans people sparked by the climate of hate is horrible.  Higher prices suck but they don’t (directly) make people bleed or die.

Part of my reason that I think (3) will happen is that a little information about the problem with tariffs has apparently penetrated the low-information ecosystem and 2/3 of those surveyed in a recent poll think that tariffs will raise prices.

Anyway, it might be the media I consume (which is probably similar to what all of you consume), but I had forgotten how good Trump is at working the media dials by just shitting out some new outrageous claim every day, even though most of what he says will never happen.  People immediately dive in on the illegality of Trump doing this (since it violates USMCA (the new NAFTA), that he’ll have to declare a state of emergency, etc.   And here I am contributing to it, I guess, though my actual feeling is more like Wonka’s attitude in the image above.  I’m still searching for a way to be less reactive to his bullshit but also noting it.  Any recommendations that aren’t just tuning out/giving up would be welcome.

The TariffsPost + Comments (123)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Gorge-ous

by Anne Laurie|  November 26, 20247:04 am| 198 Comments

This post is in: Healthcare, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat


Take your good omens where you find them, I say…

First right whales of season gorge on critical food off Massachusetts, giving hope for a strong year https://t.co/0UxrBzsd6C

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 26, 2024

President Biden took part in his final turkey pardon Monday, sparing Minnesota's own Peach and Blossom from becoming someone's holiday dinner in an annual White House tradition. pic.twitter.com/9IWkQBWglA

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 25, 2024

President Joe Biden kicked off his final holiday season at the White House on Monday by issuing the traditional reprieve to two turkeys who will bypass the Thanksgiving table to live out their days in southern Minnesota. https://t.co/GBz0GsuKPQ

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 25, 2024

President Joe Biden and his wife, Jill, on Monday opened their final holiday season at the White House with the annual turkey pardons and Christmas tree arrival before they hosted “friendsgiving” in New York City for U.S. Coast Guard members and their families.

“Simply put, we owe you. We owe your families,” Biden said at U.S. Coast Guard Sector New York on Staten Island. “Thank you, thank you, thank you.”

The meal was part of the first lady’s Joining Forces initiative to support military families. “With all my heart, thank you for your service and your sacrifice,” she said before the president spoke.

Both then tied dark aprons with the presidential seal around their dress clothes and joined the chow line, where they served a side dish of roasted Brussels sprouts. Celebrity chef Robert Irvine helped with the menu of turkey, ham, side dishes and desserts…

 

BREAKING: Millions of Americans with obesity would be eligible to have costly weight-loss drugs like Wegovy or Ozempic covered by Medicare or Medicaid under a new Biden rule https://t.co/LqrD8P4ZFJ

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 26, 2024

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GLP-1 receptor agonists, to use the formal term, are being tested for all sorts of exciting health effects. But even if they were just ‘antabuse, but for food’, there’s reason to believe that giving more obese Americans access to them could in the long run actually save money as well as lives. And yet, it kinda feels like tweaking the incoming maladministration to announce this right now…

Millions of Americans with obesity would be eligible to have popular weight-loss drugs like Wegovy or Ozempic covered by Medicare or Medicaid under a new rule the Biden administration proposed Tuesday morning.

The costly proposal from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services sets the stage for a potential showdown between the powerful pharmaceutical industry and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an outspoken opponent of the weight-loss drugs who, as President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the agency, could try to block the measure…

A bipartisan coalition of congressional members have lobbied for the drugs to be covered by Medicare, saying it could save the government from spending billions of dollars on treating chronic ailments that stem from obesity. While it’s unclear where Trump himself stands on coverage of the weight-loss drugs, his allies and Cabinet picks who have vowed to cut government spending could balk at the upfront price tag.

Under the proposal, only those who are considered obese — someone who has a body mass index of 30 or higher — would qualify for coverage. Some people may already get coverage of the drugs through Medicare or Medicaid, if they have diabetes or are at risk for stroke or heart disease.

Becerra estimated that an additional 3.5 million people on Medicare and 4 million on Medicaid could qualify for coverage of the drugs. But research suggests far more people might qualify, with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimating roughly 28 million people on Medicaid are considered obese.

Medicare has been barred from offering the drugs under a decades-old law that prohibits the government-backed insurance program from covering weight-loss products. The rule proposed by the Biden administration, however, would recognize obesity as a disease that can be treated with the help of the drugs…

Kennedy, who as Trump’s nominee for HHS secretary is subject to Senate confirmation, has railed against the drugs’ popularity. In speeches and on social media, he’s said the U.S. should not cover the drugs through Medicaid or Medicare. Instead, he supports a broad expansion of coverage for healthier foods and gym memberships.

“For half the price of Ozempic, we could purchase regeneratively raised, organic food for every American, three meals a day and a gym membership, for every obese American,” Kennedy said to a group of federal lawmakers during a roundtable earlier this year.

Or, as one BlueSky commentor japed, Heroin and brainworms — that’s the only *safe* way to lose weight.

(According to the NYTimes [gift link], Bobby Jr can’t actually do much… assuming Biden’s suggestion is approved, and that Trump actually appoints RFK Jr.)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Gorge-ousPost + Comments (198)

War for Ukraine Day 1,006: Glide Bombs Over Kharkiv This Morning, Drone Swarms Over Kyiv, Central, & Eastern Ukraine Tonight

by Adam L Silverman|  November 25, 20248:17 pm| 8 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Rosie is doing great. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations to help cover her chemo.

Russia started the day with glide bombs over Kharkiv:

Kharkiv woke today to the sound of destruction – a russian missile struck the city center, injuring 19 civilians and damaging dozens of buildings, including an administrative hub.

📷Suspilne Kharkiv

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:34 AM

Tonight it is ending it with another drone swarm:

Damned russian drones expload outside‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:27 PM

⚡️Explosions reported in Ternopil.

Explosions were heard in the western city of Ternopil around 1 a.m. local time, Suspilne reported, alongside reports of power outages in the city.

Ukraine’s Air Force previously warned of large-scale Russian drone attacks targeting various regions of the country.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 25, 2024 at 6:15 PM

Another big Shahed attack incoming to Kyiv, it appears: Monitors say 25-30 of Russian/Iranian Doodlebug attack drones are incoming to Kyiv Oblast via Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts to the east. Ukraine under relentless drone attack – practically every night for more than two months.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:14 PM

Monitors say 100-150 drones are expected tonight. We had 145 last night.

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:18 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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The Fewer Excess Profits Russia Earns from Oil, the Fewer Resources It Will Have to Wage War – Address by the President

25 November 2024 – 19:11

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Rescue operations at the sites of the Russian missile strikes have now been completed. In Kharkiv, 25 people were injured in what was preliminarily an S-400 strike. In Odesa, 11 people were injured, with preliminary reports indicating an Iskander missile was used. These attacks targeted civilian infrastructure, ordinary residential areas. Everyone affected has received the necessary assistance, and I am grateful to everyone who helps. We will definitely respond to Russia for everything it does. It is crucial that these attacks, each one of them, do not go unanswered – not only by us. There must not even be a hint of normalizing Russian terror or becoming desensitized to it. Today, there is a new decision from the United Kingdom regarding sanctions on Russia’s shadow tanker fleet. Thirty tankers have been sanctioned. This is an important step, and it would be right for European partners – on the whole EU level – as well as other partners to support such sanctions. The fewer excess profits Russia earns from oil, the fewer resources it will have to wage war. This is a clear connection – a connection that must work for the sake of real peace.

Today, I held a meeting of the Staff. Various issues were addressed, with a primary focus on protecting our infrastructure and energy sector. There were relevant reports and analysis of experience in repelling Russian attacks. The best results of specific units should be extended to all facilities, to all those involved in defense operations. We also discussed the production and supply of drones, missiles, and other weaponry. All weapons-related tasks for this year will definitely be fulfilled, and the same applies to the next year. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a separate report. We had an in-depth conversation covering all key areas of the front as well as the Kursk operation.

And one more thing.

Today, I held several meetings on international activities for the rest of the year. This includes communication with partners, our meetings, and our narratives. Things that must strengthen Ukraine. Europe, America, the Global South, other parts of the world – we must remain united. And together we must bring this war to a just conclusion. This is achievable. Thank you to everyone who helps us!

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska gave an interview to Italian television. The video, with English subtitles, is below:

Lithuania:

Your leaders may call this a “hybrid attack”. That’s cos if they called it an “attack”, they’d be expected to do something about it.

www.theguardian.com/world/2024/n…

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:40 AM

You’ll recall that Russia attempted to blow up several DHL planes and/or planes carrying DHL cargo a few weeks ago.

Here’s more details from The Guardian:

The fatal crash of a DHL cargo plane as it approached Vilnius airport could have been the result of sabotage or an accident, Germany’s foreign minister has said.

A Spanish crew member was killed and three others injured when the German plane crashed into a house near the Lithuanian capital on Monday.

Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, raised the possibility that the crash had been caused on purpose, telling reporters: “We must now seriously ask ourselves whether this was an accident or whether it was another hybrid incident,” in an allusion to the recent severing of cables in the Baltic Sea that officials have said could have been sabotage.

“The German authorities are working very closely with the Lithuanian authorities to get to the bottom of this,” she added.

Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius later said later that there were as yet “no findings” suggesting there had been an explosive charge on the aircraft.

Germany is already investigating several fires caused by incendiary devices hidden inside parcels at DHL warehouses earlier this year, the country’s prosecutor general has said.

Lithuanian authorities stopped short of linking the crash with that investigation.

“So far, there are no signs or evidence suggesting this was sabotage or a terrorist act,” the Lithuanian defence minister, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, told reporters, adding that the investigation to establish the cause could take “about a week”.

German officials said they would be launching their own investigation and were in “close contact with the relevant institutions here and abroad to get to the bottom of the situation as quickly as possible”, a security source told the news weekly Die Zeit.

The flight was operated by Swiftair on behalf of DHL and had taken off from Leipzig, Germany, before the plane crashed in overcast conditions at about 03.30 GMT, a spokesperson for Lithuania’s national crisis management centre said.

“Thankfully, despite the crash occurring in a residential area, no lives have been lost among the local population,” the Lithuanian prime minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, said after meeting with rescue officials. She cautioned against speculation, saying investigators needed time to do their job.

“The responsible agencies are working diligently,” Šimonytė said. “I urge everyone to have confidence in the investigating authorities’ ability to conduct a thorough and professional investigation within an optimal timeframe. Only these investigations will uncover the true causes of the incident; speculation and guesswork will not help establish the truth.”

The crisis management centre spokesperson said there was nothing to suggest an explosion preceded the crash. “At the moment we don’t have any data that there was an explosion,” he said.

Lithuania’s counter-intelligence chief, Darius Jauniškis, told reporters: “We cannot reject the possibility of terrorism … But at the moment we can’t make attributions or point fingers, because we don’t have such information.”

The general commissioner of the Lithuanian police, Arūnas Paulauskas, said investigators were considering possible causes, including technical failure and human error.

An airport spokesperson said the plane was a Boeing 737-400. The airport said in a statement that because of rescue work in the area, several departures were delayed and one incoming flight was diverted to Riga.

Earlier this month, Lithuania carried out arrests as part of a criminal investigation into the sending of incendiary devices on western-bound planes. According to Polish and Lithuanian media, the devices, including electric massagers implanted with a flammable substance, were sent from Lithuania to the UK in July and could have been behind a lorry fire outside Warsaw.

Poland and Lithuania, both Nato members bordering Russia, are staunch allies of Ukraine and have frequently warned of Russian-inspired sabotage on EU soil. Moscow has denied any involvement.

In October, after Germany’s investigation came to light, British counter-terrorism police said they were investigating a warehouse blaze in July which was caused by a package catching fire, and liaising with other European law enforcement agencies to see if there was a connection with similar incidents elsewhere.

Hybrid war is also war! Will get worse as long as the West fails to respond. With Trump entering the WH, forget abt unified NATO response. Europe, we’re on our own and we have to face it! Still not clear what happened to the DHL plane downed near Vilnius, but… www.politico.eu/article/euro…

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— Jacob Kaarsbo (@jkaarsbo.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:07 AM

From Politico Europe: (emphasis mine)

If not for a delay in a connecting flight, the incendiary bomb would likely have burst into flames in the belly of a plane flying high above the European Union.

Instead, it ignited on the ground in Germany’s Leipzig airport, setting fire to a DHL air freight container.

Western intelligence officials believe the attack, which took place in July, was a trial run by Russian agents who planned to place similar bombs on flights to the United States.

“We have been observing aggressive actions by the Russian intelligence services for some time now,” said Thomas Haldenwang, who recently stepped down as president of Germany’s federal domestic intelligence agency. 

“Russia is using the entire toolbox, from influencing political discussions to cyber attacks on critical infrastructure to sabotage on a significant scale,” he said. 

The Kremlin has long carried out so-called hybrid warfare against European countries, including disinformation campaigns, hacking, cyberattacks and election interference to destabilize European societies and, in the past few years, push them to decrease military support for Ukraine.

Last week, Germany said that two undersea telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea were severed as a result of sabotage.

“We have to conclude, without knowing exactly who did it, that it is a hybrid action and we also have to assume — without knowing it — that it is sabotage,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Days earlier, a Russian spy ship, the Yantar, was escorted out of the Irish Sea by the Irish navy after it entered Irish-controlled waters and patrolled an area containing critical energy and internet pipelines and cables.

Russia’s actions have also escalated into outright violence.

Russian tanks may not be rolling into Poland or Estonia, but Moscow’s aggression is getting harder to dismiss. A second parcel bomb similar to the one in Leipzig burst into flames in a warehouse near the British city of Birmingham in July, and German anti-terror police are investigating links to cases elsewhere in Europe.

Nils Andreas Stensønes, the head of Norway’s foreign intelligence service, said in September that he expected the Kremlin to ramp up efforts to sabotage oil and gas infrastructure.

Western officials suspect Moscow was behind arson attacks in Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia. And German and U.S. officials say they foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the chief executive of Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer and a major supplier of artillery shells to the Ukrainian army.

While some governments — especially in Nordic and Baltic countries — have tried to raise the alarm, the collective response from the EU and NATO has so far been notably tame.

“We are simply too polite,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on the sidelines of a NATO summit in July. “They are attacking us every day now.”

Part of the reason for Europe’s passivity can be attributed to fears in Western capitals about being drawn into a conflict for which they’re not prepared, said Daniel Byman, an expert in terrorism and unconventional warfare at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

“Most countries don’t want to be openly confronting Russia more than they already are,” he said. “They’re worried about escalation, a back-and-forth cycle that will make things worse.”

Even the words used to talk about the attacks are reflective of Europe’s timidity, said Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s outgoing foreign minister. 

“Why do we call it hybrid? Because basically when you call it hybrid you don’t need to do anything about it,” Landsbergis told a security conference in Riga last month. “If you call it terrorism, then it implies reaction.” 

The limits of NATO

The Kremlin’s brand of hybrid warfare was developed by the Russian General Valery Gerasimov, now the chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces,  according to the Austrian security expert Gerhard Mangott.

“It never just means disinformation and propaganda, but a broad arsenal of instruments, from sabotage to the infiltration and financing of parties in the West to the violation of the airspace of NATO states by Russian fighter planes,” said Mangott.

In Lithuania, Moscow is using disinformation to undermine the planned deployment of a German armed forces brigade, part of a NATO effort to shore up its eastern flank.

“A lot of fake news is being spread, for example that German soldiers raped women and wanted to occupy Lithuania,” said Darius Jauniškis, the head of the Lithuanian secret service. “Russia wants to sabotage the project. We take this very seriously.”

In October, Poland temporarily suspended — with the backing of EU leaders — asylum rights for migrants entering the country from Belarus, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk blaming a spike in arrivals on an effort by Moscow to destabilize Warsaw.

Even at their most dangerous, however, Russia’s destabilization campaign seems carefully calibrated not to trigger a collective response from NATO under the Western military alliance’s mutual defense provision, known as Article 5.

Instead, the Kremlin appears to be slowly ratcheting up the pressure to see what it can get away with. “Russia is testing the limits of Article 5 to stir up uncertainty,” Roderich Kiesewetter, a German lawmaker and former general staff officer in the German military, said earlier this year.

NATO countries have discussed a collective response to Russia’s hybrid war, a senior NATO official told reporters ahead of a summit in Washington in July. Even if the attacks don’t qualify as acts of war in the traditional sense, countries could invoke Article 4, which calls for consultation when a country’s security is threatened.

“I don’t think [we can] rule that out in the future,” the senior NATO official said. “Particularly if we were to see a continued worsening and intensification of that kind of activity.”

But for now, there is little appetite in the alliance for confrontation.

“NATO is a defensive military alliance that thinks in terms of peacetime and wartime,” General Thierry Burkhard, France’s chief of the defense staff, told the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier this month. NATO’s tools simply aren’t designed for the gray zone in “the world of competition and contestation.”

The “big problem” with invoking Article 5 in the current situation is that “there is no clear definition among allies about what hybrid warfare means,” said Marek Kohv, a former defense and intelligence official who is now with the Estonia-based International Centre for Defence and Security think tank.

“The other main issue is attribution,” Kohv said. “It’s usually coming a little bit later.”

For example, more than three months after France’s railroads were sabotaged ahead of the Paris Olympics, the country’s intelligence services are still investigating whether Moscow is behind the attack, according to Le Monde.

Another obstacle is the membership in NATO of countries like Hungary and Turkey, “countries that have shown sympathy to Russia,” said the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Byman, making it more difficult for the consensus-based military alliance to make meaningful decisions against Moscow.

Nonetheless, European governments are showing an increasing willingness to attribute acts of sabotage to Russia.

Doing so, according to Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, is the first step in fighting back. “When something happens, just go public,” Pevkur said. “Go show that these guys were hired from Russian services, and these guys conducted these attacks getting the money from Russia.”

Muck more at the link.

World War III was not available for comment.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Photo of alleged ATACMS strike on Khalino air base in Kursk Oblast, Russia, overnight Nov. 24-25. Taken from approx. 51.745355, 36.257987, looking roughly ENE in direction of aircraft parking aprons at the base.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 6:21 AM

bsky.app/profile/vcdg…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 2:35 PM

Here’s Tatarigami’s assessment:

Overnight, Ukraine carried out a series of missile strikes on Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast, reportedly using ATACMS missiles. Here’s what we can anticipate based on previous data gathered by Frontelligence Insight

(Don’t forget to like, share, and follow for more updates and imagery)

🧵Thread:

2/ In recent months, the airfield had been spotted to home SU-25 close air support jets, helicopters, and UAVs.
3/ For some time, the airfield hasn’t been heavily utilized by Russia in the same way as other air bases. Instead, it has primarily hosted helicopters and Su-25 for close-air support, rather than for KAB deployments like those conducted from bases in Voronezh or Lipetsk.
4/ Activity at the base had noticeably decreased in recent days, leaving it unclear whether significant numbers of aircraft were hit. It’s likely the strikes targeted supply depots, air defense and radar systems, potentially temporarily putting the airfield out of action.
5/ Since early October, Russians have been fortifying the Khalino airbase by constructing new revetments and reinforcing existing ones with what appear to be concrete blocks. By the time of the strike, the construction seemed to be in its later stages but was not done yet
6/ The Frontelligence Insight team has very modest expectations regarding the number of air assets destroyed on the airfield. If Ukraine successfully targeted air-defense assets in the area, it could create opportunities for future strikes with more cheap and numerous drones
7/ We should keep in mind that ATACMS strikes continue to target military objects within Russia, despite threats and nuclear saber-rattling PsyOp from Moscow. These threats, just like all previous are aimed to sow fear of nuclear escalation and weaken support for Ukraine
8/ Ukraine is likely to continue carrying out ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP strikes within Russia. However, the impact of such a campaign might be seriously constrained by factors like limited missile stockpiles.

Video of tonight’s ATACMS with cluster submunitions strike on Kursk. Filmed by Russian from the Khalino airfield.

At the beginning detonations of cluster submunitions from the direction of S-400 positions can be seen. And then the locotaion of the operator on Khalino airfield, Kursk, is targeted.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 11:32 AM

First confirmed successful ATACMS strike on Russian soil. S-400 air defence system radar and two launchers were destroyed in the Kursk region on 23.11.2024:

«On November 23, 2024, a missile strike was carried out on the S-400 air defense system in the village of Bolshoe Zhirovo, Kursk Region…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 6:50 AM

/2. «…The strike was carried out by three ATACMS ballistic missiles.

Аir defense system was in a non-combat state. Repair work was underway.

As a result of the strike, a 92N6E radar station and two launchers were destroyed. Five officers were killed (including the commander and chief of staff)…»

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 6:51 AM

/3. «…The deceased officers:
• Maxim Nikolaevich Solodovnikov, major;
• Sergey Vladimirovich Zavorin, captain;
• Nikita Nikolaevich Pechenkin, senior lieutenant;
• Yusup Adamovich Kodzoev, senior lieutenant;
• Aleksey Maksimovich Podlipalov, lieutenant.»

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 6:52 AM

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv this morning💔

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:53 AM

Video of the first moments after the strike in Kharkiv today, captured by patrol police cameras.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 2:59 PM

Kharkiv
23 people were injured as a result of russian attack

In the photos you can see a Center for the provision of administrative services

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— Mariia Kramarenko (@mariiakramarenko.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 8:21 AM

The grandfather in Kharkiv came to the local administrative service center (TsNAP) after the morning attack, which had been destroyed.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:30 AM

This morning’s Russian strike on Kharkiv injured at least 23 people. The air raid alert was not active at the time of the attack.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 7:31 AM

Toretsk:

Toretsk direction, a new type of combat vehicle. Assault on Ukrainian positions.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 1:24 PM

Odesa:

Odesa
6 people were injured during russian attack

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— Mariia Kramarenko (@mariiakramarenko.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 8:18 AM

Explosion in Odesa: Monitors say preliminary reports are that city was struck by a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile.

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 3:06 AM

Damage to residential area of Odesa after this morning’s Russian ballistic missile strike.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 4:01 AM

Sumy:

Over Sumy region, border guards destroyed three enemy drones with small arms: one “Shahed-136” and two “Herbera” UAVs.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 9:41 AM

Kopanky:

The warriors of the 3rd Company of the 2nd Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, cleared Kopanky and captured 7 occupiers from Russia’s 1st Tank Army.

Recently, the Russians infiltrated the village of Kopanky and raised their tricolor flag.
t.me/wartranslate…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 9:09 AM

Kherson:

#Kherson Yesterday, 3 injured

🔴 Overnight, Shahid drones attack, missile attacks all over #Ukraine

#Kyiv damaged residential areas
#Zaporizhzhia a child injured
#Mykolaiv infrastructure damaged
#Kharkiv 15 injured

Morning attack on #Odesa residential area

— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 7:20 AM

#Kherson

🔴 Drone psychological warfare (psyop) gone wrong.

Iryna has eye-witnessed her neighborhood being struck by Russian artillery—to be followed by drone-dropped leaflets: “Russians are here to liberate you. You are our kin.”

More on #drone #psyop soon.

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— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:40 PM

#Kherson — Sweden. Such a moving meeting: a mother-and-son team, Britta and Daniel, drive all the way from Sweden to Ukraine to deliver much needed help.

They talk about their drone attacks experience—and the way to fight it, amazingly, with… fishing nets. Yes, for salmon.

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— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 7:56 AM

It is unclear where in Ukraine this was taken:

The way Ukrainian defenders evacuate their wounded comrades without even flinching at a nearby explosion isn’t some next-level resolve; it’s the result of being on the frontline for far too long and being utterly exhausted by it imo

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 25, 2024 at 5:34 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material:

Hello. My name is Eugene and I run Cats on Mars animal shelter in Kyiv

Cats on Mars is an organization that rescues cats from war-torn territories.
During three years of the full-scale war, we rescued more than 300 cats. And continuing to do it

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— Eugene Kibets (@eugenekibets.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 9:24 AM

Musee asking new visitor to take her with him

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— Eugene Kibets (@eugenekibets.bsky.social) November 21, 2024 at 5:03 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,006: Glide Bombs Over Kharkiv This Morning, Drone Swarms Over Kyiv, Central, & Eastern Ukraine TonightPost + Comments (8)

Monday Evening Open Thread: The Oligarchs’ KKKlown Show

by Anne Laurie|  November 25, 20246:35 pm| 106 Comments

This post is in: Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality

Please please please oh god please run on unelected tech billionaire creeps telling you your life has to be worse for abstract reasons. I want President Gallego to come in with 60 senators. https://t.co/YuXBuHZhsj

— Shadow Of The Nerdtree (@agraybee) November 22, 2024

the media repeatedly framed the election as "social issues vs lower grocery prices" and now that trump and muskites are in power they reveal their actual agenda is "we can get by with less" and collective sacrifice. bait and switch!

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— Michael Tae Sweeney (@mtsw.bsky.social) November 22, 2024 at 2:10 PM

jason calacanis one of elon musk's hangers-on fascist buddies

— Michael Tae Sweeney (@mtsw.bsky.social) November 22, 2024 at 2:13 PM

conservative ideology in a nutshell: *you* get austerity and unemployment, *I* get a free government bailout when my magic beans investment goes pear shaped

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— ryan cooper (@ryanlcooper.com) November 22, 2024 at 2:25 PM

They are really fucking stupid, though. They just might try.

— Clean Observer (@hammbear2024.bsky.social) November 22, 2024 at 2:41 PM

show full post on front page

very funny that Trump put Elon in charge of a government 'department' with no statutory powers, no budget, and no employees, and he's on Twitter talking about which public officials he'll order arrested pic.twitter.com/HOoLizNCmf

— The Great El Wokismo (@canderaid) November 25, 2024

The push to fire Government workers is actually a scam designed to funnel even more money to government contractors and management consulting. The dirty secret of "smaller government" is that it benefits management consulting firms. The works still has to get done, but with 40% overhead.

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— Jon B. Wolfsthal ?? (@jonatomic.bsky.social) November 24, 2024 at 10:41 AM


 
I mean, look at the trial run results…

So Musk's genius cost cutting has led Twitter's market value to drop 80%. Genius. https://t.co/7zJ17RPN2R

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 25, 2024

Elon Musk is a DEI hire. They literally created a fantasy government department for him.

— Anonymous (@YourAnonNews) November 24, 2024

https://t.co/0cOxUwfBbX pic.twitter.com/qCGHiJUk2A

— Bakari Sellers (@Bakari_Sellers) November 22, 2024

Yes, Mr. Musk sir, please cancel the F-35 program after you end social security and Medicare as we know it. I’m begging you. Please do this. Maybe abolish the Marine Corps and McDonald’s while you’re at it. Lick that third rail. It tastes like chocolate.

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— Starfish Who Can’t Think Something Witty (@irhottakes.bsky.social) November 24, 2024 at 6:17 PM

Monday Evening Open Thread: The Oligarchs’ KKKlown ShowPost + Comments (106)

The Strange Tale of the IncElCamino

by @heymistermix.com|  November 25, 20243:47 pm| 146 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

The Strange Tale of the IncElCamino

This gave me a chuckle:

(Bloomberg) — Tesla Inc.’s electric vehicles would be excluded from consumer rebates proposed by California’s governor, a decision aimed at spurring greater competition that’s likely to draw the ire of Elon Musk.

Yes, an expensive luxury good shouldn’t get a rebate — even if Elon and Gavin are gonna fight about it.

Anyway, this gives me an excuse to post this piece about the mournful Facebook post of a Cybertruck owner.

A dentist Tesla Cybertruck owner, Steven Shao, first shared this sentiment on Facebook, which several Cybertruck owners later echoed.

Steven, writing about his Cybertruck ownership experience, says…

“You worked hard, but your kids don’t want to hang out with you, and your friends are too busy to visit. You are getting older every day, and your neck and back are complaining.

You need a man cave, a Batmobile, and a powerhouse, and it would be nice to have something that makes people snap their necks and glare. You want an overpowered, overpriced, over-the-top giant fridge on wheels.

They can’t ignore you anymore.”

If this is fake, I don’t want to know what real is.

Anyway, there’s been a big focus on young men (late teens, 20’s, maybe early 30’s) who listen to Joe Rogan, follow red pill subreddits and generally think they’re entitled to sex/relationships/bangmaids.  But this elides the fact that a lot of men who didn’t grow up on Rogan and red pill are still shitty.  There are whole subreddits dedicated to the disappointment of women who are over 40 and trying to date age-appropriate men, and man it’s grim in there.  There are just a lot of undateable, divorced men who can’t (won’t) understand why their ex-wife and kids hate them, and they just repeat the behaviors that left them without anyone to visit on Thanksgiving in their tarnished IncElCamino.

There are also a lot more man babies than I ever realized, by which I mean men looking for a mommy replacement as a wife.  My wife and I just started watching Kevin Can F*** Himself, which is an attempt to subvert the sitcom genre.  The main character, Allison, is married to man baby Kevin, who doesn’t listen to her, infantilizes her, and spends their savings on football memorabilia.  When Kevin and his pals are on screen, there’s a laugh track and a bunch of lame jokes.  When Allison is on her own, it’s bitter, bleak despair and longing.  We haven’t finished it, but it’s definitely a document of a time when society as a whole is figuring out that a lot of men really suck.  And almost all of them voted for Trump.

The Strange Tale of the IncElCaminoPost + Comments (146)

The Line Between Overreaction and Acceptance

by @heymistermix.com|  November 25, 20241:23 pm| 182 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

The Line Between Overreaction and Acceptance

I think Jamelle Bouie is one of the most reasonable commenters on our current predicament. Here he is (TikTok video) on the American system:

I have nothing but contempt for the assumption that the game is over now […] If you were black in Mississippi in 1955, the entire system was against you.  Your mayor was against you, your city council was against you, your state representative was against you, your state senator was against you, your House representative was against you, your Senator was against you, your Governor was against you.  Every single level of the institutions of the state in which you lived were against you.  And somehow they figured out how to do political opposition.  No one in the United States is living in a situation analogous to a black person in Mississippi in 1955 where there was a goddam secret police harassing opponents of the regime.  So if they can figure it out, so can we.

There’s also “are you gonna bark all day little doggie or are you going to bite” aspect of some of the pronouncements from people like Elon Musk, who’s shitposting and shittalking as much as possible, even though his stupid DOGE appointment gives him the same massive power as Bowles/Simpson or any other pointless blue-ribbon commission.

Even things Trump is purported to want on day 1, such as his apparent desire to throw transgender people out of the military, may well happen, but they aren’t a foregone conclusion.  Institutional inertia is a hell of a drug.  Just look at this page detailing the massive bureaucratic effort to behind the DoD’s current transgender policy, which has been in place since 2016.  And, as far as I can tell, Trump has never explicitly said that he wanted to throw out members of the military who are transgender.  The reporting I’ve seen on the topic comes from one rumor-filled piece by the Times of London.  There’s also some pushback from his inner circle.

To be clear, I’m not saying, “he would never do that,” just “there’s still an opposition, it’s us, and we will be able to fight this.”  Institutional inertia works both ways.  We’re the opposition party now, and we can oppose.

The Line Between Overreaction and AcceptancePost + Comments (182)

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