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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

The way to stop violence is to stop manufacturing the hatred that fuels it.

Second rate reporter says what?

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

I did not have this on my fuck 2025 bingo card.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

The real work of an opposition party is to hold the people in power accountable.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

In my day, never was longer.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

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Late Night Fever Dreams Open Thread: MAKE THEM RIOT

by Anne Laurie|  October 3, 20242:24 am| 102 Comments

This post is in: Jan 6: Insurrection, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

🚨WOW. Trump and his people encouraged the violent attack on the Capitol.

From Jack Smith’s unsealed court filing, “When he was warned there would be violence he said ‘Make them riot, do it.’” pic.twitter.com/a7nvYPzdcS

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) October 2, 2024

“He peacefully gave over power”

– JD Vance, last night

“Make them riot.”

– unsealed testimony, today

— Ben Wexler (@mrbenwexler) October 2, 2024

This is not gonna come as a big surprise to anyone who’s been paying attention for the last four years, which leaves that considerable percentage of the voting public which hasn’t. As the overarching GOP quote goes, These are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

Per the Associated Press, “Prosecutors lay out new evidence in Trump election case, accuse him of having ‘resorted to crimes’”:

Donald Trump laid the groundwork to try to overturn the 2020 election even before he lost, knowingly pushed false claims of voter fraud and “resorted to crimes” in his failed bid to cling to power, according to a court filing unsealed Wednesday that offers new evidence from the landmark criminal case against the former president.

The filing from special counsel Jack Smith’s team offers the most comprehensive view to date of what prosecutors intend to prove if the case charging Trump with conspiring to overturn the election reaches trial. Although a months-long congressional investigation and the indictment itself have chronicled in stark detail Trump’s efforts to undo the election, the filing cites previously unknown accounts offered by Trump’s closest aides to paint a portrait of an “increasingly desperate” president who, while losing his grip on the White House, “used deceit to target every stage of the electoral process.”…

The brief was made public over the Trump legal team’s objections in the final month of a closely contested presidential race in which Democrats have sought to make Trump’s refusal to accept the election results four years ago central to their claims that he is unfit for office. The issue flared as recently as Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate when Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, lamented the violence at the Capitol while a Republican opponent, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, refused to directly answer when asked whether Trump had lost the 2020 race…

The purpose of the brief is to persuade U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan that the offenses charged in the indictment were undertaken in Trump’s private, rather than presidential, capacity and can therefore remain part of the case as it moves forward. Chutkan permitted a redacted version to be made public, even though Trump’s lawyers argued that it was unfair to unseal it so close to the election.

Though the prospects of a trial are uncertain, particularly if Trump wins the presidency and a new attorney general seeks the dismissal of the case, the brief nonetheless functions as a roadmap for the testimony and evidence prosecutors would elicit before a jury. It is now up to Chutkan to decide which of Trump’s acts are official conduct for which Trump is immune from prosecution and which are, in the words of Smith’s team, “private crimes” on which the case can proceed.

show full post on front page

The filing alleges that Trump “laid the groundwork” for rejecting the election results before the contest was over, telling advisers that in the event he held an early lead he would “declare victory before the ballots were counted and any winner was projected.”

Immediately after the election, prosecutors say, his advisers sought to sow chaos in the counting of votes. In one instance, a campaign employee described as a Trump co-conspirator was told that results favoring Democrat Joe Biden at a Michigan polling center appeared accurate. The person is alleged to have replied: “find a reason it isnt” and “give me options to file litigation.”…

Of the more than 1,200 Tweets Trump sent during the weeks detailed in the indictment, prosecutors say, the vast majority were about the 2020 election, including those falsely claiming Pence could reject electors even though the vice president had told Trump that he had no such power.

That “steady stream of disinformation” culminated in his speech at the Ellipse on the morning of Jan. 6, 2021, where Trump “used these lies to inflame and motivate the large and angry crowd of his supporters to march to the Capitol and disrupt the certification proceeding,” prosecutors wrote.

His “personal desperation was at its zenith” that morning as he was “only hours from the certification proceeding that spelled the end,” prosecutors wrote.

This is not an "October Surprise."

Jack Smith was not holding this back just to drop it now.

This is happening now because of Trump's appeals and the Supreme Court's horrendous ruling.

Jack Smith wanted this out months ago. Trump should already have had his trial.

— Mark Romano (@Tactelller) October 2, 2024

A quick note on the attribution of a quote making the rounds in Jack Smith's brief:

The figure quoted saying “Make them riot” and “Do it!!!" is "P5."

That person is described as a "a Campaign employee, agent, and co-conspirator" of Trump. pic.twitter.com/9CkgsPnTMC

— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) October 2, 2024

There's a clear, disturbing arc in the Jack Smith brief of the Trump team's weekslong pressure on Pence, while Pence routinely makes clear he won't go along with it. Then on Jan. 1, Trump tells him that if he doesn't, "hundreds of thousands" of people "are gonna hate your guts." https://t.co/nGvDHunrgY

— Roger Sollenberger (@SollenbergerRC) October 2, 2024

The "make them riot" comment is getting a lot of play, but I'd argue that "give me options to file litigation…even if it's BS" is equally damning. They knew Trump lost, and they moved heaven and earth to get him back into office anyway. https://t.co/P760GDP5km

— Mike Rothschild (no relation) (@rothschildmd) October 2, 2024

“Make them riot. Make them do it” pic.twitter.com/dFi4jZMItV

— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) October 2, 2024

Late Night Fever Dreams Open Thread: MAKE THEM RIOTPost + Comments (102)

War for Ukraine Day 952: Kharkiv Under Attack Once More

by Adam L Silverman|  October 2, 20247:37 pm| 9 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by Ukrainian artist NEIVANMADE. The words "NEVER AGAIN" are repeated over and over, from left to right and top to bottom, in a faded, washed out black against a white background. Red, the color of blood, runs and drips down across 2/3rds of the painting. "WHILE YOU TOLERATE TYRANTS" is written/painted in the bottom white corner below the three rows of "NEVER AGAIN".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping items. First, Rosie is doing well, but has her usual third day out from treatment slow down. This is not unsual. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, tonight is Erev Rosh HaShana. So, Happy Jew Year to everyone who celebrates! It’s 5785, which I think is the Year of the Bialy. Anyhow, I’m going to just run the basics tonight so I can shut down for the evening.

Russia has unleashed its glide bombs on Kharkiv again within the past hour (it is 6:40 PM EDT/1:40 AM local time in Ukraine).

Kharkiv right now.

There is a fire after the russian glide bomb attack on our city.

First responders are working. As of now, there are 9 injured people. pic.twitter.com/zDQje1TzsY

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 2, 2024

Kharkiv. Currently, nine civilians have been reported injured, including a 3-year-old girl. Russia again used an aerial bomb against a residential building.

📷place_kharkiv pic.twitter.com/XxnCNEhPR9

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) October 2, 2024

Kharkiv, Saltivka—an ordinary residential building hit by a Russian bomb.

The rescue operation is ongoing, as they are searching for anyone who may have been affected. So far, 8 people are known to be injured. Everyone will be provided the necessary assistance.

For such Russian… pic.twitter.com/dnuyAHszCD

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 2, 2024

Kharkiv, Saltivka—an ordinary residential building hit by a Russian bomb.

The rescue operation is ongoing, as they are searching for anyone who may have been affected. So far, 8 people are known to be injured. Everyone will be provided the necessary assistance.

For such Russian strikes to stop, Ukraine must receive the required and, above all, sufficient support from the world, from partners. Every leader knows exactly what needs to be done. It is important to be decisive.

More on this attack after the jump.

Right now there is no air raid alert for Kharkiv, however, all of central and most of western Ukraine is under air raid alert. The alert maps show strikes in Kyiv, Khmelnyskyi, Vinnytsia, and Rivne Oblasts all within the last thirty minutes. There is no indication that Russian strategic aviation is airborne on the alert maps, so these are likely Shahed swarms.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Now, in All Areas and at All Levels, We Are Preparing Maximum Results for the State for this Fall – Address by the President

2 October 2024 – 20:10

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

First – the report by the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleh Ivashchenko. The key things – about the strengthening of the Service, and about our work on extremely sensitive information obtained by our Ukrainian intelligence officers. Now, in all areas and at all levels, we are preparing maximum results for the state for this fall. All the necessary content for Ramstein – the military, the Office, diplomats – everything that our partners need from Ukraine to better understand the available opportunities – all this we will ensure. On the other hand, we are also working on the intentions our enemy has. We are preparing to counter them in the way that will be most useful for the defense of Ukraine, for the protection of our people’s lives.

Second – today I have spoken several times with the Commander-in-Chief. Primarily – about the Donetsk region, about the directions where the situation is particularly difficult now. I thank each of our combat brigades for their true resilience and true bravery. Every week, in spite of everything, our warriors ensure really tangible damage to the occupier, and this is the most important thing – to exhaust the enemy and secure Ukraine’s ability to convince our partners of the steps that can radically, strategically change the military situation. We really need this determination from our partners. Long-range capabilities. And I want to separately thank every leader, all friends of Ukraine, for understanding that there is not enough pressure on Russia now, and that is why – and only why – the Russian authorities do not take diplomacy seriously. More strength is needed.

And a few other things.

Last night, the Russian army launched another attack on Ukraine with “Shahed” drones. In particular, there is a hit in the Odesa region, in the Izmail district, not far from the Romanian border. “Shahed” drones targeted ordinary civilian infrastructure – a ferry terminal, cargo trucks, a warehouse with grain. The very thing that Russian terrorists always perceive as a target is the food security of the region and the world. Ukraine has long been saying to all its neighbors, to all its major partners, that we need to cooperate, we need to shoot down “Shahed” drones, shoot down missiles together, and especially in areas close to NATO countries. This is absolutely possible. Every time in the Middle East, during brutal Iranian strikes, we see the international coalition acting together. I thank every state that really helps us with air defense. In particular, I thank Romania for the Patriot. And we can achieve even greater effectiveness – we can put a complete end to Russian terror by shooting down “Shahed” drones, by shooting down missiles in cooperation.

Today, we also talked about the restoration in Ukraine, about the construction of shelters, with Samantha Power, Administrator of USAID – the U.S. Agency for International Development. Now, before the winter, it is very important to accelerate the implementation of all existing projects – for protection in the energy sector, for security in communities – for schools, for hospitals. At all levels, we must be effective – in Ukraine, and in relations with our partners, and among our partners – in understanding the prospects.

I thank everyone who fights and works for our state and people! I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Шана това єврейським громадам по всій Україні та в усьому світі, які відзначають Рош га-Шана.

Цьогорічне святкування, як і в попередні роки, відбувається у час війни та труднощів для євреїв в Україні й інших країнах, де агресія та терор становлять загрозу нормальному життю.…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 2, 2024

Shanah Tovah to Jewish communities across Ukraine and around the world as they mark #RoshHashanah.

This year’s celebration, like previous years, is marked by war and hardship for Jews in Ukraine and other countries where aggression and terror threaten normal life.

However, the New Year’s message is one of hope for a new awakening, for the triumph of good over evil, and for life to overcome all hardships and injustices. This is what today’s prayers are about: restoring fair peace, justice, and normal life to all those who have been denied them.

I wish for every Jewish community gathering around festive tables and tasting apples and honey, a sweet year ahead, as well as strength, hope, and faith in tomorrow in the face of today’s challenges.

Shana tova u-metuka!

It’s that time of year again, folks! Thousands of Orthodox Jewish pilgrims arrive to the Ukrainian city of Uman for Rosh Hashanah. Must be a real blast celebrating the Jewish New Year in a war-torn country that’s apparently overrun with nazis, right? pic.twitter.com/QCCWqmSqCp

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 2, 2024

A kind reminder that Russia is one of the most antisemitic countries in the world which is also trying to spread it via its propaganda outlets. https://t.co/BK8n9gOEqS

— Paul Shapoval (@Frialum) October 1, 2024

Meanwhile in “Nazi Ukraine” — tens of thousands of the Jewish faithful once again arrive for traditional religious new year celebrations.

The propaganda machine of “anti-Nazi” Russia — spreads barely veiled antisemitic tropes. https://t.co/a3E8x60F6K

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 2, 2024

Remember, for Putin and Russians, anyone who opposes Russia is a NAZI. Just as the real victims of World War II were Soviet Russians, not Jews.

The butcher’s bill that Russia has run up from 1 JUN through 31 AUG 2024:

“At least 589 Ukrainian civilians were killed and another 2,685 injured in Russia’s war against Ukraine between June 1 and Aug. 31, according to a report by the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published on Oct. 1.

The number of victims in the summer… pic.twitter.com/dmynk9vB3m

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 2, 2024

“At least 589 Ukrainian civilians were killed and another 2,685 injured in Russia’s war against Ukraine between June 1 and Aug. 31, according to a report by the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published on Oct. 1.

The number of victims in the summer increased by 45% compared to the OHCHR’s spring monitoring, the report reads.”
https://kyivindependent.com/589-civilians-killed-in-ukraine-in-summer-2024-by-russias-war-un-reports/

From The Kyiv Independent:

At least 589 Ukrainian civilians were killed and another 2,685 injured in Russia’s war against Ukraine between June 1 and Aug. 31, according to a report by the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published on Oct. 1.

The number of victims in the summer increased by 45% compared to the OHCHR’s spring monitoring, the report reads.

Over the summer, 324 men, 238 women, 14 girls, and 13 boys were killed, while 1,353 men, 1,155 women, 104 boys, and 73 girls were injured. The month of July 2024 was the deadliest for civilians in Ukraine since October 2022, according to the OHCHR.

The OHCHR said the main cause of the high number of civilian casualties in July was a large-scale coordinated attack of dozens of missiles launched by Russia at targets across Ukraine on July 8, which killed 44 people and injured 196, as Ukraine’s State Emergency Service reported.

The Russian army’s efforts to establish control over the territory of the eastern Donetsk Oblast also resulted in many civilian casualties, the OHCHR added.

At least 10,582 civilians have been killed and nearly 20,000 have been injured since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) said on Feb. 22.

The figure of 10,582, which includes 587 children, consists of civilian deaths verified according to UN methodology.

The number of dead and injured in fighting immediately after the outbreak of the full-scale war has yet to be fully accounted for, and some of the places that saw the heaviest combat in early 2022 are still under Russian occupation, making it impossible for outside observers to investigate.

Here’s the link to the full report if you care to read it.

Here’s an interesting assessment of the socio-strategic issues effecting US and European support for Ukraine:

There are some fundamental reasons why Ukraine is being used as a shield against Russia and not treated as an ally by the US and Europe. These reasons are deeply ingrained in culture and psyche, and aren’t a product of everyday politics.

A 🧵 

The first reason is Europe outsourcing its security to the US during the Cold War era and up to the present. The US is culturally, mentally and physically far away. This distance makes it pay attention only to the big players on the board – it sees Russia, it misses Ukraine. 
Solving this fundamental issue is not as easy as changing the spelling of Kiev to Kyiv. Changing symbols is important and it can be done quickly. What can’t be changed in a heartbeat is decades of educating American strategists on Russia, the rest are Russia’s satellites. 
Europe simply gave away European security to the US, while it invested in social security. Among many problems that arise from such a trade is the fact that the security structure in Europe isn’t sensitive enough to what happens on its periphery. 
The second problem is the European collective psyche, which still hasn’t processed the fact that Europe doesn’t end at Berlin and Vienna. Europe hasn’t only dropped its responsibility to effectively defend itself, it hasn’t completely defined itself. 
Once again, giving nice statements on how we’re all European, all equal, how it’s a real treasure to have all these nations together is one thing, changing European societies to not demonstrate their animosity to the “other Europe” in every electoral cycle is another. 
Basically, when Russia sees Ukraine it sees something that belongs to it, in a very toxic, domestic violence kind of way. When the US looks at Ukraine, it sees a barrier to Russian expansion into Europe, the part its tasked with defending. It’s therefore useful, but risky. 
When Europe itself looks at Ukraine, it sees the farthest part of the “other Europe”, which creates nothing but trouble for the “real Europe”, the one which has already transcended war, racial, ethnic and religious differences, and lives in a utopia (although it doesn’t really). 
This American and European way of looking at Ukraine, or the Balkans for that matter, produced half-strategies since the 2005 Orange Revolution in Ukraine. Either Ukraine is a part of Europe or it’s an object to be used against Russia, until Russia comes to its senses. 
The fundamental issue thus being, whether one treats Ukraine as a subject or an object. Even after 2022, Ukraine did not achieve the subject status in the eyes of the US and Europe, although its position in the collective psyche has advanced from where it began. 
Ukraine is fighting on two fronts, one is a physical struggle against possessive Russia, the other is a mental struggle to convince the West that it exists outside of the Russian satellite, ex-Soviet paradigm, that it can be an ally, not only an instrument of influence on Russia. 
That’s why, by the way, Ukrainians get mad when they are being lumped together with Russians in various events, award ceremonies, exhibits and such. They don’t want to be an add-on, whether for good or evil Russians. They want to be recognized as a separate, independent entity. 

Kharkiv:

More footage from Kharkiv after the russian air attack https://t.co/1tv6hCsQ08 pic.twitter.com/dJd2xN8uW3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 2, 2024

I’m so angry and feel utterly helpless. This endless cycle of pleading, asking, postponing, and debating is killing us and destroying our lives! I don’t know what else to say. I have no words left in me.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 2, 2024

More pictures of the aftermath of tonight’s russian glide bomb attack on Kharkiv pic.twitter.com/i7d1nlQqT6

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 2, 2024

Vuhledar:

Vuhledar, a city that no longer exists. Russia has been trying to capture it since March 2022, reducing it to rubble over 2.5 years. This is the real Russia—and this is what delays in decision-making lead to pic.twitter.com/RR5gBFZsXM

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 2, 2024

Here’s the Ukrainian statement about the withdrawal from Vuhledar, which says Russian forces flanked them and they were threatened with encirclement.

“The higher command has given permission to carry out a maneuver to withdraw units from Vuhledar in order to preserve personnel… pic.twitter.com/dXHTRfXQGg

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 2, 2024

Here’s the Ukrainian statement about the withdrawal from Vuhledar, which says Russian forces flanked them and they were threatened with encirclement.

“The higher command has given permission to carry out a maneuver to withdraw units from Vuhledar in order to preserve personnel and combat equipment, to take a position for further actions.”

“Soldiers from several units along the front have described improved Russian tactics this summer that combine their advantages into powerful attacks that Ukrainians have struggled to counteract, even as they achieve local victories…

Enemy troops are storming the battlefields… pic.twitter.com/MQWw5RJeEJ

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 2, 2024

“Soldiers from several units along the front have described improved Russian tactics this summer that combine their advantages into powerful attacks that Ukrainians have struggled to counteract, even as they achieve local victories…

Enemy troops are storming the battlefields in small teams that minimize detection and make return fire difficult, backed by superior quantities of artillery and drones. Russia has also improved its battlefield communication, helping coordinate attacks. While losses are staggering, Ukrainian soldiers have said, the Russians have the numbers to keep up the pressure and Western aid isn’t making up the equipment deficit…

‘They don’t spare people, and their men are forced to move through those paths. And in the last place where we were working, there’s a crossroads completely littered with bodies, and they keep coming, because they have orders,’ he said. ‘There’s already a mass of them. Everything is black with corpses.'”
@AlexHortonTX @serhiikorolchuk

https://washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/02/ukraine-russia-advance-pokrovsk-vuhledar/

From The Washington Post:

The Ukrainian soldiers felt like they had done everything right. After raking the two squads of attacking Russian troops with their automatic grenade launchers, they sent in the attack drones to pick off the survivors.

But what happened next turned the battle into a math problem. More enemy soldiers arrived, some in armored vehicles. Russian support fire with drones and artillery poured down on the outgunned Ukrainians, said Andrii Bilozir, the senior sergeant for the unit’s first battalion.The soldiers of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade had to withdraw.

“I had the task of saving the boys,” Bilozir said.

Soldiers from several units along the front have described improved Russian tactics this summer that combine their advantages into powerful attacks that Ukrainians have struggled to counteract, even as they achieve local victories. That is apparent in places like Vuhledar, the small Donetsk citadel that fell to Russian forces Tuesday, forcing a Ukrainian withdraw in a hardscrabble town they fiercely defended for two years.

Enemy troops are storming the battlefields in small teams that minimize detection and make return fire difficult, backed by superior quantities of artillery and drones. Russia has also improved its battlefield communication, helping coordinate attacks. While losses are staggering, Ukrainian soldiers have said, the Russians have the numbers to keep up the pressure andWestern aid isn’t making up the equipment deficit.

That confluence of factors, combined with Ukraine’s perennial challenge to replenish its combat units and its focus on a large operation inside Russia, has allowed Moscow’s forces to claim territory in the Donetsk region with speed and aggression not seen since the full invasion in 2022.Ukrainian forces have been retreating along dozens of miles of a front line being pushed to its breaking point.

The territorial losses have been glaring this summer. In Vuhledar, Ukrainians imposed heavy losses against previously failed Russian assaults. The 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which had fought there for about two years with no relief, wasexhausted but determined, an officer in the unit said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.

But artillery volleys in the area sometimes reach 10 shells to 1 in favor of Russia, he said, and glide bombs launched unopposed from jets can destroy whole sections of a trench line and anyone manning them. Moscow’s forces have pushed the 72nd further and further back, the officer said, risking an encirclement of Ukrainian forces.

Asked whether the question is when Vuhledar will fall, rather than if, the officer did not hesitate.

“Yes,” he said.

Days later, his grim prediction became reality. Ukrainian forces withdrew from the town to prevent encirclement and losing troops and equipment, the regional command said Wednesday.

Russian forces gained territory in August and September at a pace not seen since 2022, said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Black Bird Group, an open source intelligence analysis collective based in Helsinki. The pressure was mostly felt in the southern Donetsk region. Russian forces in that period increased occupied territory across Ukraine by 318 square miles, Paroinen said — about 268 of which were claimed along the front between Bakhmut and Vuhledar.

The steepest losses of territory occurred from mid-August to mid-September, Paroinen said, coinciding with the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.

The surprise offensive into Kursk in August that involved 30,000 of Ukraine’s soldiers was partially a bid to peel enemy troops away from their positions on the eastern front. That gambit has not yet paid off, and while invigorating Ukrainian morale, likely contributed to the losses in Donetsk, some analysts have said, because it involves experienced units receiving prioritized resupply and fresh troops that otherwise would have gone to the east.

Kursk has likely stretched Ukrainian personnel thin and exacerbated the manpower issue, already among the main challenges for Kyiv, said Rob Lee, a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Heavy losses of experienced Ukrainian soldiers, coupled with new troops sped to the front with limited training, have further added pressure on units holding the line.

“A lot of these problems are fundamental problems, and they haven’t been fixed,” Lee said. He said, however, that the situation could improve if Ukraine continues its pace of mobilization, and they may have more operational surprises planned.

But the effects of Russia’s advance are already being felt in the region.

Pokrovsk, a key highway and rail hub central to Ukraine’s efforts to move troops and equipment throughout the southern Donetsk region, has been a focus of attack and civilian evacuations for weeks. The destruction of railways and bridges means it is effectively lost, soldiers have said, forcing longer and more perilous routes through the area.

But the most consequential aspect of the fight along this portion of the Donetsk front may be more about the loss of troops than territory, Lee said. Both Moscow and Kyiv have suffered heavy losses, and the victor could be the side that can hold out the longest.

“At what point does this become unsustainable or lead to political problems for one side?” Lee said. “I think that’s the strategic question here.”

In the field, soldiers are just trying to hold on while adapting to the revised Russian tactics.

The fight last year was largely defined by artillery duels and so-called “meat assaults” of large groups of poorly trained Russian mobilized soldiers. But now Ukrainians report enemy assault troops as often being well trained and well equipped, moving in smaller groups than before. In certain parts of the front line, Russian troops were storming defenses in groups of 10 to 20 soldiers months ago, and are now using teams as small as four, soldiers and analysts said.

The practice helps Russian troops evade surveillance, and their dispersal makes it more difficult to target them with drones and artillery. These assaults, according to numerous reports, are fueled by coercion, with threats of violence or jail if they surrender or retreat.

The small assault team tactic is familiar to Ukrainians, who leveraged the practice last fall in taking back villages held by Russians. But the key difference now, soldiers said, is Russia has combined the concept with its advantages in munitions and a tolerance for losses. New communications equipment has also helped Russian commanders better organize assaults, soldiers have said, and increased the proficiency of drone attacks.

Much more at the link.

Vovchansk:

Video of a claimed Russian ODAB-1500 UMPK glide bomb strike in Vovchansk.https://t.co/ISP6U2X8n7https://t.co/hEaBC9GRsW https://t.co/d77FQ1ciVS pic.twitter.com/CkvRtZL6w0

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 30, 2024

Russian ODAB-1500 UMPK strike on Vovchansk. 3/https://t.co/CaFLhVG8RN pic.twitter.com/WQ1xpC1G43

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 2, 2024

Chasiv Yar:

Chasiv Yar

Filmed for @Hromadske by 24th brigade pic.twitter.com/mizqDhAGJM

— Diana Butsko (@dianabutsko) September 25, 2024

Kherson Oblast:

Russians use drones to attack civilians in Kherson, in what has become known as ‘human safari’. A terrifying story by @KyivIndependent
“Under attack are people walking, driving, bicycling, going to work or standing by grocery stores.”https://t.co/cfvMI6knLV

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) October 2, 2024

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Editor’s note: Some of the Kherson locals interviewed for this story refused to be identified by last name due to fear for their safety.

KHERSON – On a warm September evening, Olha Chernyshova’s day took a grim turn when she was returning home from work in downtown Kherson. Stepping out of her car, she heard a loud buzz and immediately knew it was not a bumblebee.

She rushed towards her home’s entrance door. A deafening blast shook the yard. A drone had dropped an explosive on her car. Time froze.

Back in the yard, Chernyshova saw shattered glass, plastic, and a small metallic cylinder. Her heart racing, she called the police. A team of sappers soon retrieved an undetonated part of a fragmentation grenade. That same day, other drones targeted nearby cars, injuring three of Chernyshova’s neighbors.

A week after the terrifying incident, she spoke to the Kyiv Independent near her home, hiding from another drone under a large chestnut tree.

“Where will we hide once the leaves are gone?” she asked. “It will be an open season on people. I need to work on more drone safety measures.”

Owner of a family grocery store in Kherson, the capital of Ukraine’s southern region on the Dnipro River, Chernyshova lives in a city that has endured relentless Russian artillery and air strikes since its liberation from occupation in the fall of 2022. Local residents last year endured a massive flood triggered by Russia’s blowing up of the Kakhovka dam just north of the city.

Now, like other residents, she finds herself dodging Russian kamikaze drone strikes, typically so-called FPV (first-person view) commercial drones loaded with grenades or other explosives. Their use along the front lines of Russia’s full-scale invasion to kill infantry and tanks alike has been widespread, changing the future of warfare.

But in the ravaged city of Kherson, where Ukraine-controlled territory and Russian forces are separated by the Dnipro River instead of no man’s land between trenches in the eastern Donbas region, civilians are being targeted routinely. Terrified locals refer to the new strategy as “a human safari.”

“Drones are now flying in groups and attacking everything that moves,” said Serhii, a volunteer-turned-taxi driver.  “Our charity hub had to close because trucks can no longer deliver humanitarian aid. This has not only cut off critical supplies but also crippled local businesses that rely on transportation. It’s scary to think what will happen in winter when food and fuel shortages could escalate into a full-blown crisis.”

As drone attacks intensified, Chernyshova — a business owner and mother dedicated to safety — was authorized by the Kherson administration to initiate the development of drone security guidelines for the city. Online public information resource Dovidka.info wrote and designed posters based on her recommendations for Kherson and other front-line zones.

“Drones are a real pain for Kherson. Everyone is a target,” said Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration. “Under attack are people walking, driving, bicycling, going to work or standing by grocery stores.”

Drone strikes averaged 100 per day in July and August 2024, he said. But as autumn set in, the numbers have spiked dramatically. Ukraine’s TSN news program reported that a record high of 330 drone strikes and 224 explosive drops hit the region on Sept. 9 alone.

To attack women buying watermelons at city corners and children playing in parks, Russian forces use modified commercial drones.

“First, you see a reconnaissance drone like a Mavic,” said Svitlana, a doctor living by the river.

“You can hardly hear it, and it just looks around, sending video to the Russian pilot across the river,” she said, referring to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River to the south where Russian forces still control swatches of Kherson Oblast.

“Then comes an FPV (first-person view) drone, dropping a grenade on you. Or, a Coca-Cola can with explosives. Sometimes, the drone crashes and blows up. A 90-year-old woman was badly injured next door, in her yard,” she added.

Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) teams respond to drone attacks in Kherson every day.

“Often, as I drive to the location, drones chase my car: they do ‘double taps,’ striking first responders and sappers,” a leading expert in the field told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity citing lack of authority to speak with the media.

“I fire at them with an AK rifle, but it’s difficult because the drones are small and fly at an altitude of 120 meters. Any lower than 30 meters means the drone is in attack mode, so I hide and wait. Once it’s gone, I can neutralize an FPV drone or explosives if it hasn’t detonated. If it did, I look through debris and, often, human body parts to figure out the kind of drone and explosives used.”

The sapper shared a Telegram channel where Russian drone operators post videos of these attacks.

“They know that the international laws prohibit deliberate attacks on civilians, civilian infrastructure, and humanitarian missions but they believe the anonymity protects them from prosecution,” he said. “They also need to show the results of their work. Russian volunteers fundraise for Mavic and FPV drones because these commercial models lack military certification and aren’t supplied by the military.”

Volodymyr, a former construction business owner, got two concussions as drones dropped explosives on his car four times. He lives in a large house within walking distance of the Dnipro River. He lost his company during the nine months of Russian occupation and survived two years of shelling, bombing, missile attacks, and the Kakhovka dam flood. After two recent artillery attacks, his family left Kherson.

Much more at the link including pictures and diagrams.

#Kherson 19.48

While I am editing the interview with this young mother, chased, targeted and injured by a Russian drone, the city is under heavy artillery fire. #SaveKherson pic.twitter.com/GkaH0vcYou

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) October 2, 2024

Okhmatdyt:

You’ve forgotten about Okhmatdyt, and perhaps never even heard of a dozen or so other atrocities against civilians committed by Russia in Ukraine since then, because the fast Internet news cycle has eroded your ability to focus.

The Kremlin knows that, and counts on it. https://t.co/RlKUOoDuIR

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) October 2, 2024

Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:

Have you stopped talking about Okhmatdyt?

This a reminder that almost 3 months ago, Russia unleashed at least 40 long-range missiles in five cities across Ukraine, targeting civilian residential regions, including Ukraine’s largest pediatric facility, Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital. More than 600 patients along with hundreds of medical staff were present during the missile strike, while three patients were undergoing operations during the time of the attack.

36 people were killed.

As of today, this has still not been officially declared as a war crime.

Tambov Oblast, Russia:

Russian military in Tambov region of Russia mistook a plane dusting fields for a Ukrainian drone and fired at it with machine guns.

The pilot was dusting fields, flew over a gunpowder factory. After that, machine guns began to fire at the plane. The pilot was wounded in the leg… pic.twitter.com/EOmYu7LhAs

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 2, 2024

Russian military in Tambov region of Russia mistook a plane dusting fields for a Ukrainian drone and fired at it with machine guns.

The pilot was dusting fields, flew over a gunpowder factory. After that, machine guns began to fire at the plane. The pilot was wounded in the leg and was forced to land in a field.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

I look sad in this photo because my great friend, and a friend of all Ukraine, the Ambassador of Japan to Ukraine, Mr. Matsuda Kuninori, is completing his diplomatic mission here. This means that we won’t see each other again anytime soon. 😞
I would like all of you to get to… pic.twitter.com/dG22PrP3O4

— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 2, 2024

I look sad in this photo because my great friend, and a friend of all Ukraine, the Ambassador of Japan to Ukraine, Mr. Matsuda Kuninori, is completing his diplomatic mission here. This means that we won’t see each other again anytime soon. 😞
I would like all of you to get to know him because he is an extraordinary person with a huge heart. At our first meeting, I barked about how many things we needed, and a few weeks later, as if by magic, various equipment started arriving. Thank you, people of Japan, for sending us such an Ambassador.
I will never forget you ❤️

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 952: Kharkiv Under Attack Once MorePost + Comments (9)

Jack Smith Brief Released! (Mostly in Full, Names Redacted)

by WaterGirl|  October 2, 20244:03 pm| 190 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Trump Indictments

DC Indictment NewsLink to PDF

Not all that redacted, except for names.  So far, it seems like the whole story could be there, minus names.

h/t everyone i the previous thread!

NEW: Judge Chutkan has unsealed Jack Smith’s 165-page motion for presidential immunity! storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us…

[image or embed]

— Joshua J. Friedman (@joshuajfriedman.com) October 2, 2024 at 2:38 PM

.h/t Omnes for the BlueSky link.

Jack Smith Brief Released! (Mostly in Full, Names Redacted)Post + Comments (190)

Walz PA Rally at 3pm, Harris Remarks on Helene at 4pm (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  October 2, 20243:00 pm| 69 Comments

This post is in: Democratic Politics, Harris-Walz, Open Threads, Politics

Walz rally scheduled for today starting around 3 pm Eastern

Harris briefing on the hurricane around 4 pm Eastern

I am making broccoli quiche because I wasn’t in the mood to go to the store.  I had broccoli, green onions, a frozen pie crust, swiss cheese and half-and-half, so I figured I could make it work.

Let’s just say it’s not going great.  The broccoli was a couple of ounces less than I needed, not a big deal.  The I started it steaming and forgot about it, so it’s definitely not “partially cooked”.  I started the garlic sautéing in butter while I cut up the green onions, which were definitely older than I expected.  Then the alarm went off to tell me it was time to force the post to publish.  Then i noticed that the butter / garlic was brown because I hadn’t gotten the green onions in to sauté.

This will not be the best quiche ever.  I’m normally a good cook.  Really.  sigh.

Update: while we’re waiting for the rally to start. I truly think this might be the best Liberal Redneck video ever.

h/t eclare

ON THE JD VANCE AND TIM WALZ DEBATE pic.twitter.com/gOcZjgDYak

— Trae Crowder (@traecrowder) October 2, 2024

Walz PA Rally at 3pm, Harris Remarks on Helene at 4pm (Open Thread)Post + Comments (69)

Did All the Undecided Voters Take a Stand Against Vance Last Night?

by WaterGirl|  October 2, 20241:41 pm| 114 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

All the clips I’ve see show the if an undecided voter took a stand after watching last night, it did not go well for Voce.

Undecided Michigan voter: The one thing that stuck out to me was JD Vance's refusal to say whether or not Trump lost the 2020 election. It makes me think he is not as trustworthy pic.twitter.com/jEkVLacndA

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) October 2, 2024

pic.twitter.com/ty0Hw3VCkR

— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) October 2, 2024

Pretty sure Robinson is toast!

 

SCOOP:

As Helene approached N.C., Gov. Roy Cooper asked top officials for emergency powers as he mobilized response efforts.

Every Council of State member voted yes, except one:

Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who didn’t respond to the request at all. #ncpolhttps://t.co/LRi9W6Yigs

— Andy Specht (@AndySpecht) October 2, 2024

Open thread.

Did All the Undecided Voters Take a Stand Against Vance Last Night?Post + Comments (114)

Ya Done Fucked Up, Son

by @heymistermix.com|  October 2, 202411:06 am| 242 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Ya Done Fucked Up, Son

I was frustrated during last night’s VP debate because of the excessive comity and deference that I felt Walz was giving Vance, and I posted about that at halftime.  The polls I’ve seen show that Walz improved his favorables, as did Vance, though JD is still underwater.  Walz’ favorable minius unfavorable is like +33% in the poll I saw, which is just amazing in this environment.  So, if the “JD and I have areas of agreement” strategy was to keep increasing the already positive opinions of Walz held by the public, it worked.

I’ve also seen commentary that Walz’ strategy was to get the message out that JD has some reasonable views, but since he’s gotta kiss Trump’s ass, he’s afraid to do it.  That sure worked in the J6 exchange, which I think was the moment where Vance done fucked up.  Walz’ reaction shot on that one was priceless, as was his remark that the only reason Vance was on the stage is because Pence wouldn’t do what Trump wanted on January 6.

That all said, they don’t come any slicker than Vance, and expecting Walz to match that slickness is a mistake, and I don’t think I made that mistake.  Walz is smart and he’s good at explaining important policies from the heart.  It’s easy to appear smooth if all you’re doing is cranking out lies, which is what Vance was doing.  Vance as couchfucker was a good laugh, and he can be awkward when he’s not scripted.  But when he’s prepped and scripted, he’s a scary motherfucker, because he lies so well, and he expects that his lies will carry the day.  He’s not wrong, because if you look at the press coverage this morning, most of the big news orgs are sticking with theater criticism instead of looking at the content of what Vance said.  Vance’s clear expectation that he should never be fact-checked, coupled with the weak institutional press that is scared of fact-checking Republicans, should scare everyone who cares about preserving our democracy and treating everyone humanely.  Jay Rosen gets this exactly right:

Ya Done Fucked Up, Son 1

I’m not a woman (obvs), but the anecdotes I’ve seen indicate that women in general got a real “ewww” feel from Vance, especially when he mentioned that a lot of women want to go to work right after having a baby.  It’s interesting that the yuck vibe from women is about a strong in the negative direction as the yum vibe from male, younger beltway media. Vance is a member of the same tribe as those guys:  Ivy education, slick with words in a formal setting, struggles to fit in socially in any but the Ivy/preppie context, and a real fucking misogynist when you get down to it.  Also, his constant bragging about his kids has a real “I got laid” stench.  Ryan Lizza is the archetype of the kind of beltway dude I’m thinking of, and the news that he blackmailed Olivia Nuzzi with the RFK Jr sexting stuff is very Vance-like.

Finally, a word about Usha Vance.  I see a lot of comments about how she’s going to divorce him because folks have a hard time imagining that a woman would put up with a guy like him.  Nope, she’s cut from the same ambitious, shape-shifting cloth.  They’re an awful, ugly power couple and we’ll unfortunately be hearing more from them.

 

Ya Done Fucked Up, SonPost + Comments (242)

Personal News: Health Update II

by Betty Cracker|  October 2, 202411:00 am| 120 Comments

This post is in: Fuck Cancer, Open Threads

NOTE: I added this post under MM’s (i.e., self-bigfooted) because I don’t want to clog up prime blog real estate with a discussion focused on my medical issues.

John let me know some folks had contacted him to see if I was okay since I haven’t posted or commented much lately. That’s sweet, and I appreciate the concern. Short answer: I’m okay!

I wrapped up chemo and radiation around the end of August and spent September physically recovering from that. I’m still getting maintenance immunotherapy infusions every three weeks, but the side effects aren’t as debilitating as the truly hellish intensive treatment phase was.

My primary struggle now is to overcome (or learn to live with) the psychological trauma of the whole thing. It turns out a life-threatening illness and sudden decline in customary levels of physical activity and abilities can fuck with the mind in insidious ways.

I’m starting to feel stronger, but it’s taking longer than I thought it would, and that’s frustrating. Also, I’m reluctant to loll around on the sofa engaged in mindless activities like re-reading old favorites or watching cooking shows on TV because it seems like a waste of time, and I don’t know how much time I have left. But sometimes that’s all I can manage because if I sit with my own thoughts, I tend to go down every dark path.

I don’t think that tendency is unwarranted pessimism on my part. While my docs are optimistic about my response so far, I know there’s a high chance of a recurrence. And if that happens, I don’t think I’ll be willing to go through treatment hell again. I feel like I took my one shot at something like a return to normal. Now I have to get busy living again and hope for the best.

Most of all, I don’t want to squander the time I bought (at great cost) on moping around and worrying about things I can’t control. But it’s so damn hard to stop doing that!

In my best frame of mind, my focus has been to live in the moment and find beauty and joy where I can. That — along with the love and support of my family and friends, including those here — got me through the worst of this past summer. I have to trust that approach to see me through.

So that’s where I am. Thanks for listening. Now go argue about politics or pets in the threads above and below. Peace, love and strength!

Personal News: Health Update IIPost + Comments (120)

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