Anybody else watching Kamala’s MSNBC interview? I am watching on my TV (the horror!) but if anybody has a link to watching it online I will gladly post it.
Open thread!
Anybody Watching Kamala’s Interview Open ThreadPost + Comments (54)

by WaterGirl| 54 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
Anybody else watching Kamala’s MSNBC interview? I am watching on my TV (the horror!) but if anybody has a link to watching it online I will gladly post it.
Open thread!
Anybody Watching Kamala’s Interview Open ThreadPost + Comments (54)
by @heymistermix.com| 155 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads

Over at LGM, Paul Campos discusses the latest theory about the size of the Trump vote from Thomas Edsall (published at the NYT, so no link) and adds some context from modern political science. The explanation of the day is “motivated ignorance” — simply put, it’s a hell of a push to expect someone who’s completely invested in the right-wing ecosystem to admit that they’ve been duped by Trump, Fox News and the rest, so they instead ignore that evidence and don’t seek it out. True, indeed, and more evidence of Trump’s duplicity just motivates more denial / ignorance. It’s a bit cultish, but it’s also pretty human to try to preserve one’s identity as a member of a certain group.
Anyway, I’m not a political scientist or a law prof, but there’s another aspect to this phenomenon of denial/ignorance. My early life in the rural plains, and my current travels that have led me to spend a lot of time there in the past few years. As we all know, these are areas that take far more resources from the federal government than they send back in taxes. That’s because, almost to a person, there’s some form of federal assistance helping them.
For the folks who are descendants of immigrants in the rural plains, many of their grandparents and great-grandparents were recipients of one of the biggest government benefit programs in our history, the Homestead Acts. My grandmother, a tough lady, maintained a tar paper shack on a quarter section of land (160 acres) long enough for it to be given to her under one of the Homestead Acts. The value of that land today is around $400,000.
After the “dirty thirties” and WWII, when the government realized that farmers will fuck up the land and either grow too much or too little left to their own devices, an expensive and generous set of farm programs boosted the incomes of farmers and ranchers. Then came rural electrification — the co-ops that were created (by the government, of course) still exist and provide electricity to areas where the invisible hand would never dirty itself. (Someday I’ll write a post about why my family members get a ~$500 check every year from the co-op providing them excellent fiber optic phone and Internet service.) There were also a set of “reclamation” and “flood control” programs where giant dams were built on the Missouri to generate power, provide irrigation and control floods by creating huge reservoirs.
Now, the aging population in these areas are Medicare and Social Security recipients who would be living in grinding poverty if they didn’t get those benefits. Most of their kids and grandkids are on Medicaid because none of the local businesses have the resources or the desire to pay benefits. They go to “critical access” hospitals heavily financed by the government. Their children often at least are on WIC if not SNAP, and may attend government-funded headstart programs. If they’re a small business owner, they probably got a nice big PPP loan that they’ll never pay back.
But if you talk to your average Trumper in the area, their focus (unsurprisingly) isn’t on the many benefits they receive — it’s what happens when the eagle shits for the “poors” (nevermind that many of them are poor, too). The “day the eagle shits” is army slang for payday, but where I grew up, it’s become a general term for when government benefits drop. It’s a big deal. Grocery stores in the little towns prepare for it — in the really small reservation towns, there’s signage listing rules about what can and can’t be done on that day. Locals know the day and avoid shopping. And they all bitch about the inconvenience and also judge people who have “nice cars” or “good things” and still get those benefits.
So is it “motivated ignorance” for the Trumpy benefit recipients to have constructed a fable where their benefits are justified (or hidden), while the other recipients are somehow unworthy? Or is it just the pride of man? Either way, the right-wing media ecosystem is very good at reinforcing their prejudices about undeserving recipients of handouts, and elevating Republicans as the noble beneficiaries of well-deserved benefits. The party that fought Social Security, Medicare and Obamacare gets their loyal, almost automatic vote, while their kids who want a better life move to whatever blue or purple city that’s hundreds of miles away.
The Eagle Shits for Us All, But Some of Us are In DenialPost + Comments (155)
by WaterGirl| 76 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
The women are bringing it.
BREAKING: I offered a resolution to simply say, "Yes, women have a right to get abortion care when their life is at stake."
Senate Republicans blocked it.
Trump abortion bans are killing women—and Senate Republicans are sitting by and letting it happen.
— Senator Patty Murray (@PattyMurray) September 24, 2024
Again and again. Maybe because we have the most to lose?
Rep Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) brilliantly exposes Project 2025 for what it is, a manifesto that furthers White Supremacy. Take 90 seconds to watch the Congresswoman and then let's all VOTE🗳️to #DumpTrumpsProject2025 by electing Dems up and down the ballot. pic.twitter.com/nD00KZyKS6
— Brian Cardone 🏴☠️🇺🇦 (@cardon_brian) September 24, 2024
h/t rikyrah for one of these, For Jasmine, I think.
Another woman telling the truth about Donald.
And please don’t let anyone you know look away, either. pic.twitter.com/d62vzuWKic
— George Conway 👊🇺🇸🔥 (@gtconway3d) September 25, 2024
tweet is from the comments.
Alexandra Petri is exactly who we need for these times. (gift link)
“You will no longer be abandoned, lonely or scared. You will no longer be in danger. You’re not gonna be in danger any longer. You will no longer have anxiety from all of the problems our country has today. You will be protected, and I will be your protector. Women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. You will no longer be thinking about abortion.”
— Donald Trump, at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Monday
It is so much nicer being a woman, now that Donald Trump is in charge!
You barely remember the Biden times at all, except in nightmares. In the dreams, regular eggs cost as much as Fabergé eggs. All the food at the grocery store is too expensive — if you made it to the store at all without being killed, sometimes twice. Also you were always thinking about abortion.
But then you wake up all the way and Donald Trump is protecting you and you are not thinking about abortion.
Mostly you feel wonderful all the time, happy and confident and not depressed because all that has been fixed. Every single problem the country had! Poof! And all you had to do was stop thinking about abortion.
Now, Donald Trump is back and you are not thinking about anything. All your anxieties are gone, now that men are handling all the country’s problems. It would have been a mistake to put a woman in charge! Fortunately, that did not happen. Fortunately, Donald Trump is guarding you. You are guarded! You are not worrying your pretty little head. Donald Trump is protecting you, just like the Bible said should happen. It did not mention him by name, but that was implied.
It was so tough in the before times, when you had to act as though you were a person. It was exhausting, like a dog standing on its hind legs all day. Of course, you weren’t a person, not really, and it is so much nicer to get to stop pretending. Much more restful this way. You are not thinking about abortion. Abortion is back in the hands of those who know best. The choice was the exhausting part; now, you get to be a blessed vessel and raise up as many children as they have decided is best. It is much nicer now.
It is so much nicer being a woman in Trump’s world
Before, you thought abortion might even be a reason to vote. You voted! You could laugh, or cry, when you think about it. You aren’t sure which. Donald Trump will know.
Thank God the national nightmare of forcing you to make choices — as though your thoughts and desires mattered — is at an end. You wake up and smile at the picture of your patron saint, Donald Trump. You go to the market (JD Vance is in charge of eggs now; he has been lecturing the hens about the need to fertilize more of them) and buy one dozen. They cost exactly the right amount. You are not thinking about abortion.
Nothing is the matter here. You are so much more relaxed now that the country has no more problems. Sometimes, you don’t think that all of them were problems, but the thought is quick to vanish. You don’t think about abortion. How could you think about abortion? There is no abortion here. It is with the states where it belongs. It isn’t where you are. It’s not important. You’re not important. Donald Trump is protecting you.
Open thread!
by WaterGirl| 94 Comments
This post is in: Elections, Elections 2024, Open Threads
We are excited to share important insights from Worker Power’s recent voter report in Arizona. Between July 6th and August 9th, our canvassers engaged with 61,000 voters and conducted a comprehensive survey of 9,008 individuals to better understand voter priorities and preferences, especially in light of President Biden’s exit and Vice President Kamala Harris’s entry as the Democratic Presidential nominee.
The report included a diverse group of voters: 46.6% Latino, 9.7% Black, and 36.9% white and the following key findings emerged:
1. Economic Concerns Dominate Voter Priorities
Our report revealed that economic issues, particularly the cost of living, are the primary concern for voters across all demographics. Over half of the voters (53.7%) cited economic issues as their top priority when Biden was the nominee, and this remained high (49.3%) after Harris became the nominee. This concern transcended race and vote propensity, highlighting the universal importance of economic stability in the upcoming election.
2. Strong Support for Reproductive Freedom
Reproductive freedom emerged as a crucial issue for Arizona voters, with 78.5% indicating it is very important to them. This issue is especially significant among Latino voters, with 88.1% considering it important. Reproductive freedom was also the second most cited issue, following economic concerns, underscoring its pivotal role in voter decision-making.
3. Rising Support for Kamala Harris
The report showed a notable increase in support for Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee compared to Joe Biden. When Harris became the nominee, the percentage of voters “definitely” or “probably” supporting her rose to 72.1%, compared to 55.2% for Biden. This suggests a positive shift in voter sentiment towards Harris, with fewer voters considering third-party candidates or remaining undecided.
4. Ruben Gallego’s Strong Senate Support
Our findings indicate overwhelming support for Ruben Gallego in the U.S. Senate race, with 84.6% of reported voters planning to vote for him. This robust backing reflects strong Democratic engagement in Arizona, which is crucial for success in the upcoming elections.
5. Continued Engagement Needed Due to High Levels of Undecided Voters
While support for Kamala Harris is stronger than it was for Biden, significant numbers of voters, especially those with lower voting propensities, remain undecided. Among high propensity voters (80+ score), 82.3% support Harris. However, for all other voter propensity ranges, support drops to a maximum of 57.6%, with undecided voters ranging from 27.6% to even higher percentages in lower propensity groups.
This report highlights the critical need for Worker Power to continue engaging with voters, especially those who are lower-propensity and Democratic-leaning, to boost their participation in the upcoming election.
Pssst – data geeks, there are charts and everything!
And in case the spirit moves you.
Totally open thread.
Here’s the Skinny from Boots on the Ground in AZPost + Comments (94)
This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat
This country is filled with beauty and sacred places. The choice we make this election will determine the future of treasured landscapes that are part of our shared heritage. Learn how you can make your voice heard: https://t.co/uB4uTICogJ pic.twitter.com/xJrUb1RqwD
— Deb Haaland (@DebHaalandNM) September 23, 2024
New @KamalaHarris Ad: “I’ve never voted for a Democrat, but the choice is simple—I’m voting for Kamala Harris.”
Check out the first ad in a new campaign targeting Trump 2020 voters in rural Pennsylvania counties. pic.twitter.com/DqbaTuDgE1
— Reed Howard (@ReedHowardVA) September 24, 2024
CNN: More than 400 independent economists and policymakers just endorsed Kamala Harris. This is a sweeping show of support. They say this election is a choice between failed trickle-down economics under Trump or prosperity, opportunity, and stability with Harris pic.twitter.com/wdid7on6N9
— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) September 24, 2024
“It’s a big deal and it’s about time.”@FLOTUS takes the stage at #CGI2024 to announce the Department of Defense’s new $500 million plan to transform women’s health research. pic.twitter.com/1qyDRvW8Dc
— Clinton Global Initiative (@ClintonGlobal) September 24, 2024
President Biden said the U.S. must not retreat from the world, as he delivered his final address to the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday as Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon edge toward war and Israel’s bloody operation against Hamas in Gaza nears the one-year mark. pic.twitter.com/ZTBDgWoJyV
— The Associated Press (@AP) September 24, 2024
Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Forward Into the FuturePost + Comments (102)
This post is in: Open Threads
Ever since I saw a photo of a Thai zoo’s new online superstar, Pygmy hippo Moo Deng (“bouncy pork”), she reminded me of someone:

But I couldn’t think of who. It finally came to me:

That’s how Pete acquired his newest nickname.
***
We’re waiting to see where future Hurricane Helene will go. The current track keeps it well to the west of our location, and if that holds, we don’t expect much more than a bit of rain and wind.
It sounds like the steering currents are pretty unpredictable with this one, so we’re keeping an eye on it. I hope everyone who might be affected is ready. (A local medical marijuana dispensary is doing its part with a 30% off sale!)
Open thread!
by Adam L Silverman| 8 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing excellently. Her next appointment is Monday. That’s her third treatment of the fourth and final round of chemo. She’ll then have two weeks off and then she get’s the final treatment and she’s done. Then she turns 14. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, as you all know Helene is expected to barrel through the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and is forecasted to make landfall in the Florida panhandle. If you are or could be in the path of Helene, make your plan and then be ready to execute it. Given the current forecasts and how tight the models are, I’m not expecting any issues here, but I’ll update as things get closer.
Third, last night in comments grubert asked:
I would like to ask Adam.. do you think Jake Broe is too optimistic?
Cause after I read your posts ( and I read it all except for the political boilerplate, ) I feel I need a Broe or Rehi to feel less .. depressed
I have no idea who either of these people are, so I have no idea if they’re too optimistic.
Russia once again opened up on Kharkiv with glide bombs today.
Just an hour ago shortly after 6 PM EDT/1 AM local time in Ukraine:
Third explosion in Kharkiv ‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 24, 2024
And earlier this morning.
Right now, Russia is showering Kharkiv with glide bombs—two residential buildings hit, people trapped under rubble. Yet, discussions about Ukraine striking back still argue Russia moved everything far away. No, they haven’t. They’re using logistics to deliver daily terror pic.twitter.com/5BLZgUa0iU
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 24, 2024
Kharkiv was struck by 7 russian glide bombs today.
At least 3 people died. At least 31 got injured.
One apartment building was hit directly and partially collapsed, and the other one got damaged.
bakery was struck too, at least 1 worker died there. pic.twitter.com/sUwdobMxYo
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 24, 2024
This is what russia did in Kharkiv today. Three dead, 15 wounded so far. People are still trapped under the rubble. Do human lives no longer mean anything in this world?
📹place_kharkiv pic.twitter.com/E07gmILoBw
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 24, 2024
More on Kharkiv after the jump.
While this was going on, Trump was giving a speech trashing President Zelenskyy and alleging that he is a crook. Trump also claimed that he’d force a negotiated settlement on Ukraine to end the war if he’s elected in November.
Love it that Trump preferred to comfortably forget about the fact that Zelensky came to the US to meet with Biden and also talk to Harris AND Trump, too.
Because this is what a wartime leader of a country under attack in the largest European war of aggression since 1945 would be…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 24, 2024
Love it that Trump preferred to comfortably forget about the fact that Zelensky came to the US to meet with Biden and also talk to Harris AND Trump, too.
Because this is what a wartime leader of a country under attack in the largest European war of aggression since 1945 would be doing — talking to the currently serving American president and also to potential next American leaders who can soon enter the White House and start defining policies towards Ukraine, less than two months away from the November election.
Besides, that was a gesture of respect towards DJT and his role in U.S. politics.
Ukraine is obviously interested in not taking sides in the U.S. presidential campaign and demonstrating its readiness to work with whoever wins the race.
Zelensky is responsible for saving a 40-million European country from Russia’s relentless war of extermination, the outcome of which greatly depends on the U.S., so it’s just silly to seriously believe he’s in a position to “campaign for Harris” now.
But sure, why not spit Zelensky in the face, directly insult him, call him a “salesman,” mock Ukraine’s desperate fight for survival against one of the largest war machines in human history deathly feared by the entire West — and for what?
For extra two seconds of cheap demagoguery of the I-will-end-this-war-within-24-hours populism that Trump himself does not really believe in?
President Zelenskyy addressed the High Level Meeting of the UN Security Council today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Russia’s War Against Ukraine Will End Because the UN Charter Will Work – Speech by the President of Ukraine at the High Level Meeting of the UN Security Council
24 September 2024 – 23:26
Your Excellencies,
One day in this hall it will surely be said that Russia’s war against Ukraine has ended – not frozen, not paused, not forgotten. Truly ended.
And this will happen not because someone got tired of the war. Not because someone traded something with Putin.
Russia’s war against Ukraine will end because the UN Charter will work. It must work. Our Ukrainian right to self-defense must prevail. Our cooperation with nations of the world who value life as we do. Our territorial integrity. Our sovereignty, the independence of our country. We are defending what every nation would surely want to protect for itself. And what the UN Charter grants to all.
And it is Russia that always has to lie to justify its war. Not us. Russia cannot refer to the UN Charter to explain what it is doing against us, against Ukraine, Ukrainian people. In fact, in Russia’s perverted way, in its crooked world, it does refer to the Charter – but that’s simply insane.
Russia stayed silent because it couldn’t explain why a Russian missile recently struck a grain ship bound for an Egyptian port through the Black Sea. Russia either stays silent or lies about why its drones and missiles are found in the airspace of Poland, Moldova, Romania. Every day, Ukrainians are wounded and killed. Every day. Today, once again Russian bombs hit residential buildings. Even an ordinary bread factory became a target. What’s so threatening to Russia about making bread? Putin has no answer. And Russia never has an honest answer when asked why its army kills children in Ukraine, “defeats” schools and hospitals, and fights not for justice, but for a blackout for a neighboring nation. Putin has nothing to say if you ask him why he tries to drag Belarus into the war, why his propagandists threaten nations in the Caucasus or Central Asia, or why Russia invests the most not in human development, but in hatred. Russia has no legitimate reason – none at all – for making Iran and North Korea de-facto accomplices in its criminal war in Europe, with their weapons killing us, killing Ukrainians and helping Putin steal our land from our people.
We know – some in the world want to talk to Putin. We know it. To meet, to talk, to speak. But what could they possibly hear from him? That he’s upset because we’re exercising our right to defend our people? Or that he wants to keep the war and terror going just so no one thinks he was wrong? It’s insane too.
From the very first second of this war, Russia has been doing things that cannot possibly be justified under the UN Charter. Every destroyed Ukrainian city, every burned village, and there are already hundreds and hundreds, serves as proof that Russia is committing an international crime. And that’s why this war can’t simply “fade away.” That’s why this war can’t be calmed by talks. Action is needed. And I am grateful to all the nations that are truly helping, in ways that save the lives of our people.
Putin has broken so many international norms and rules that he won’t stop on his own. Russia can only be forced into peace. And that is exactly what’s needed – forcing Russia into peace as the sole aggressor in this war, the sole violator of the UN Charter.
Now, as we near the third winter of this war, Russia is once again trying to destroy our energy system, and this fall, they’re being even more cynical. They’re preparing to target our nuclear power plants, three of them – we have this information, and we have proof of this. If Russia is ready to go that far, it means – nothing you value matters to Moscow. This kind of Russian cynicism will keep striking if it’s given any room in the world.
The UN Charter leaves no room for that. And that’s why the Peace Formula leaves no room either.
In 2022, in the midst of the war, when I proposed the Peace Formula, I was proposing to uphold the UN Charter – to make effective everything that this institution was created for. Every point of the Peace Formula is rooted in the principles and purposes and norms of the UN Charter – in the rights it grants nations, and in the resolutions of the General Assembly that have already been supported by the majority of nations.
And we do not have different versions of the UN Charter for different parts of the world. We do not have regional “quasi-charters”. There is no separate UN Charter for BRICS or for the G7. There is no separate Russian-Iranian UN Charter, or no separate Chinese-Brazilian UN Charter. There is one UN Charter, which unites everyone – must unite everyone. The path to a just peace is the same – clear steps that everyone understands equally, and this is reflected in the Peace Formula. It is the fulfillment of the UN Charter. And we all know what needs to be done if we honestly look at the situation and truly want to stop Russia’s war. And most importantly – act. Together, of course. Of course, in unity. Without creating new and unnecessary divisions of the world into blocs or regional groups. Unity always works for peace.
We have to prepare the second Peace Summit to end the war. All together. And I invite all of you – all principled nations – to join us in this process. All who truly respect the UN Charter.
We invite China. We invite Brazil. I have already invited India. We are working with African nations, with all of Latin America, the Middle East, Central Asia, Europe, the Pacific region, North America. All are equally important for peace. All. Without exceptions. Just as the UN Charter must work without exceptions. This is the process that will lead us to peace. To a just peace. A real peace. A peace that will last. All of us already know how to achieve it. We have the Peace Formula. We have the UN Charter. And we have all the strength needed to make it happen.
What’s needed – is determination.
Thank you so much.
Glory to Ukraine!
Washington, DC:
🚨🇺🇸🇺🇦 “The US believes Ukraine will need at least $500 million worth of PDA per month through FY 2025, according to a senior administration official.”
This is half of what they need just for defensive operations, and clearly the Biden Admin won’t even give them that much. They… https://t.co/qfB92Em5eU
— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) September 23, 2024
🚨🇺🇸🇺🇦 “The US believes Ukraine will need at least $500 million worth of PDA per month through FY 2025, according to a senior administration official.”
This is half of what they need just for defensive operations, and clearly the Biden Admin won’t even give them that much. They are doing the “cupboard is bare” routine, claiming that stocks are empty and they can’t send Ukraine much of anything.
Beyond absurd.
Kirby says @POTUS ‘committed to supporting Ukraine completely and fully.’
“I think you’ll hear more about this when he has a chance to meet with President Zelensky on Thursday”
— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) September 24, 2024
There are three options here. The first is that the Biden administration is really bad at this. The second is that despite their public statements they really don’t care if Ukraine actually gets the aid. The third is a combination of the two. At this point, given that this has happened over and over and over again, it really doesn’t matter. The reality is that they’re strategically incompetent.
Not that Germany is doing much better:
Scholz’s “personal conviction”..Russia can use long range missiles from North Korea & Iran against Ukraine, but Ukraine can’t fire back.
Weak, weak, weak. Free Europe pays the price for short-term domestic politics. https://t.co/lXIjGH6fW1
— Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) September 24, 2024
Chancellor “No thoughts, only vibes” Scholz.
Lithuania:
Lithuania is helping to fix Ukraine’s power network. We’re even sending a whole power station.
I reminded the G7+ that Ukraine needs air defence and permission to destroy sources of attacks on infrastructure, because we can’t make power stations faster than Russia makes bombs. pic.twitter.com/WbMWZDy9Pv— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) September 23, 2024
Denmark:
“The one most important red line has been crossed already, and that was when the Russians entered Ukraine,” – PM of Denmark Mette Frederiksen.
“My suggestion is, let us end the discussion about lines and let us not delay with what the Ukrainians need not only to protect… pic.twitter.com/TXr74Msome
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 23, 2024
“The one most important red line has been crossed already, and that was when the Russians entered Ukraine,” – PM of Denmark Mette Frederiksen.
“My suggestion is, let us end the discussion about lines and let us not delay with what the Ukrainians need not only to protect themselves but also to push Russia back,” @Statsmin added.
Prime Minister also emphasized that Russia’s war in Ukraine is not a European, but a global conflict, as Moscow is waging it with the help of China, as well as getting closer to Iran and DPRK.
Denmark is the world’s largest donor to Ukraine relative to the size of its economy, having allocated some 1.8% of GDP in bilateral support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Thankful to the people and government of Denmark for your unwavering support! 🇩🇰🇺🇦
Japan:
Japan fires flares for the first time after russian plane violates airspace Yomiuri Shimbun.
Today a russian Il-38 plane violated Japanese airspace three times over Rebun Island in northern Hokkaido Prefecture.
Japan is 1000x braver than NATO. pic.twitter.com/V8eBGi52hi
— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) September 23, 2024
I don’t think that the West understands what a crisis is currently growing in the Ukrainian infantry.
It is unlikely that there is an understanding that delaying permission to strike deep into Russia is a deepening of this crisis.
A war of such intensity cannot be waged by the…
— Stanislav Aseyev (@AseyevStanislav) September 24, 2024
I don’t think that the West understands what a crisis is currently growing in the Ukrainian infantry.
It is unlikely that there is an understanding that delaying permission to strike deep into Russia is a deepening of this crisis.
A war of such intensity cannot be waged by the same people.
I received my two wounds two months apart. If you are in the infantry, then 5-7 months of fighting is a guarantee of at least a concussion, at most – disability or death.No amount of missiles will solve this crisis (unfortunately, the Ukrainian government still doesn’t understand this), but fundamental decisions by the US can at least not prolong the crisis.
Unfortunately, the situation on the frontline is dire in many areas. These tiring efforts to portray a rosy picture, suggesting that the AFU will soon be in Crimea, are hindering honest discussions and urgent calls for help. Zelensky is correct to seek binding security guarantees…
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 24, 2024
Unfortunately, the situation on the frontline is dire in many areas. These tiring efforts to portray a rosy picture, suggesting that the AFU will soon be in Crimea, are hindering honest discussions and urgent calls for help. Zelensky is correct to seek binding security guarantees as strong as Article 5 because Ukraine is going to lose the war unless there are radical changes in how this war is approached
Read thishttps://t.co/o228l2ivq1
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 24, 2024
Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:
President Zelensky is seeking security guarantees as part of Ukraine’s ongoing effort to join NATO. While few expect this request to result in a positive answer, the reality is that Ukraine urgently needs security assurances to end the war and ensure its survival. This isn’t mere rhetoric to grab your attention – it’s an invitation to an honest discussion about why Zelensky is pushing for a new security framework – and why it must be taken seriously.
Some of these points may echo earlier discussions, but they need to be repeated to understand the full picture. No matter how optimistic some portray the situation, or talk about great Ukraine after the victory, it doesn’t resolve the problem. Admitting the problem and discussing it is the first step to a solution.
Let’s take a hard look at the potential consequences if Ukraine freezes the conflict without securing firm guarantees.
First, consider the economic and demographic problems of post-war Ukraine. The country has lost ~18% of its territory, including important agricultural and industrial regions in the south and east. Even in areas under Ukrainian control near the frontline, land remains unsafe due to extensive minefields. Sea ports like Mariupol and Berdyansk are occupied, and large industrial facilities, akin to Azovstal are destroyed.
Demographically, the situation is even worse. Before the war, Ukraine already faced one of the worst population trends in Europe. The Ptoukha Institute for Demography estimates that only around 29 million people lived in government-controlled areas at the start of 2024 – which is down from 45 million before the 2014 Russian invasion and Crimea’s annexation.
The war has accelerated the exodus of younger Ukrainians, particularly women and children, leaving behind an aging population. Adding to this, hundreds of thousands of veterans will return home, many of whom will require physical and psychological support. Managing this social, economic, and political burden without security guarantees would be a monumental task for any state forced to have high military spending, let alone Ukraine, with GDP per capita almost 5 times less than Greece. Additionally, without firm security guarantees and a concrete long-term plan, the likelihood of people returning from abroad remains slim.
Lack of guarantees will multiply the factor of instability, with fears of another Russian invasion driving more citizens to flee once borders fully reopen. The resulting uncertainty would deter post-war investments, as high-security risks and social instability would create an unattractive environment for any serious economic engagement.
Politically, Ukraine will also enter a period of uncertainty and risks. While Zelensky remains a unifying figure in wartime, internal tensions, which are often invisible to the Western audience are mounting, creating an increasingly toxic political atmosphere. A stalled war, millions displaced, lost territories, and a crippled economy hardly set the stage for calm and easy elections. As Ukraine enters a period of intense political competition, accusations of military failures are likely to dominate the discourse. It will be a test of Ukraine’s ability to preserve national unity across political lines.
Some argue that immigration could help address the problem, but what exactly would draw immigrants to Ukraine, where the average monthly salary is between $500 and $700, in a country ravaged by post-war problems and facing the constant threat of another Russian invasion? Especially when far more attractive opportunities are available within the EU.
Many Western partners assure Ukraine that aid will ensure that it won’t happen, but how reliable are these statements, given the history of similar statements akin to “Will support Ukraine as long as it takes” in today’s realities? Democracies operate on election cycles, and promises of long-term support can quickly become an object of shifting political winds. As elections approach, Ukraine could find itself a target of political debate, with opposition asking why their nations should prioritize foreign aid over pressing domestic issues like healthcare, education, or economic problems. In such an environment, the commitment to Ukraine is unstable and can’t be trusted.
The same applies to military aid for Ukraine. While Russia will keep rebuilding its forces, Ukraine will primarily depend on its own, much smaller domestic production and increasingly uncertain Western support, which will use peace as an excuse to diminish its aid
Russia, despite facing similar challenges, holds a significant advantage by being larger in most metrics, allowing it to better absorb these problems. Its vast resources, particularly oil and gas, offer economic leverage to soften the post-war problems. Moreover, Russia is likely to see some sanctions bypassed thanks to inconsistent enforcement. Under these conditions, it may only be a matter of time before Russia rebuilds a force large enough to deliver a decisive blow to Ukraine. Meanwhile, democratic Ukraine, without solid security guarantees, faces a far bleaker scenario.
Current peace proposals essentially send the same message: no guarantees for Ukraine, but a demand to cede territory and abandon aspirations of joining the Western alliance. In other words, nearly 30 million people are being sacrificed because the West is too weak and unwilling to make bold, risky decisions that could shape a better future.
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv today.
Yet another Russian air bomb crashed a large residential building sector.
Such things happen almost every day, and this will continue as long as Ukraine has no weapons to fight back and stop Russian large-scale bombing campaigns on its civilian population and… pic.twitter.com/Dw3ROGhO58
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 24, 2024
Kharkiv today.
Yet another Russian air bomb crashed a large residential building sector.
Such things happen almost every day, and this will continue as long as Ukraine has no weapons to fight back and stop Russian large-scale bombing campaigns on its civilian population and infrastructure.
But let me guess, professional virtue signallers on “X” are absolutely out of ducks to give when it comes to the actual consequences of what they so eagerly pay lip service to.
Does anyone here think Russia is paying any attention to the strong concerns and condemnations voiced at the UN General Assembly while launching this particulary brutal and massive attack on Kharkiv? pic.twitter.com/73WJpv5WN9
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 24, 2024
According to the Mayor of Kharkiv, the apartment building targeted by a russian aerial bomb in the Kyivskyi district had already been damaged earlier in the war. It was almost fully repaired, with new windows, insulation, and ready for the heating season. Now, it lies in ruins. pic.twitter.com/kKf00lAMPc
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 24, 2024
One person was killed and eight injured in a Russian attack on a bakery in Kharkiv, according to Oleh Syniehubov, the head of the regional military administration. pic.twitter.com/DgNOj25mff
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 24, 2024
Picture this: It’s a normal weekday, and you’re working, minding your own business. Suddenly, without any warning, you hear an explosion that shakes the buildings and sets off car alarms outside.
You would probably head to a shelter if you were farther from the launch sites on… pic.twitter.com/lV27zpywqb
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 24, 2024
Picture this: It’s a normal weekday, and you’re working, minding your own business. Suddenly, without any warning, you hear an explosion that shakes the buildings and sets off car alarms outside.
You would probably head to a shelter if you were farther from the launch sites on russian territory, but you are in Kharkiv, very close to russia. The bombing has already started, so you only have seconds before the next explosion.
You can’t use the elevator during a bombing, and the staircase with windows on each floor probably isn’t the best idea either. So, you quickly dash to a corridor or bathroom—somewhere without windows.
There you sit and count the explosions, unable to do anything else. First, second (that sounded like it was near your parents’ house—please, no), third, fourth, fifth (this one was so close, your building shook a bit), sixth (“Hello, Mom, are you OK?”), seventh…
After long minutes of silence, you dare to step out of your almost-shelter. By this time, you know there are victims; local channels are buzzing with news. But you are supposed to get back to your day. To somehow keep working, go buy your family dinner, get back home and cook it, and just be the person your family relies on.
People in Kharkiv don’t need to imagine. It’s how our days go, one by one, every day. Today we survived, and they didn’t; we got lucky. But what about tomorrow?
Fuck off you fucking sick russian fucks‼️
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 24, 2024
I’m Adam L. Silverman and I approve this message!
Vuhledar:
It’s clear that the situation in Vuhledar is critical, and we are likely witnessing the final stages of its defense, which has lasted nearly 3 years. I can only hope that the right orders have been given, prioritizing the lives of soldiers over any desire to hold the ground
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 24, 2024
russia doing this to Ukrainian cities while people are enraged by zelensky signing an artillery shell https://t.co/spGGOlBQ2C
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz) September 24, 2024
Ukrainian analysts at Deep State write that Russian forces are “erasing” Vuhledar.
“The situation around the city is critical and continues to get more complicated.”The Russians “are trying to surround the town while at the same time razing it to the ground with artillery,… https://t.co/2YtDugp3nF pic.twitter.com/qWASYaIo0b
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 24, 2024
Ukrainian analysts at Deep State write that Russian forces are “erasing” Vuhledar.
“The situation around the city is critical and continues to get more complicated.”The Russians “are trying to surround the town while at the same time razing it to the ground with artillery, glide bombs, etc.”
“To hold on until the last [soldiers] means to put ruins above the price of our military, which is unacceptable.”
Vuhledar is a longtime bulwark. But it might be close to falling. The exhausted but tough as nails 72nd brigade still fighting there, as I wrote in my in my @FT dispatch published yesterday: https://on.ft.com/47zTkzU
Pokrovsk:
Drones have proven to be a game-changer in this war.
🇺🇦 drone pilots detect and destroy the enemy in the Pokrovsk direction.📹: 47th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/TvgO5S4R5o
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 24, 2024
Vovchansk:
Ukraine’s military intelligence special task forces have successfully secured the remains of the Vovchansk Machinery Plant, at which Russian troops had been isolated for a long time amid fierce hostilities in the city.
Very impressive footage for history. pic.twitter.com/fcSzgMmgV8
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 24, 2024
Kyiv:
All-clear just sounded in Kyiv city – alert was on for 15 minutes. Air alert in surrounding Kyiv Oblast still on.
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 24, 2024
Monitors: “At 14:28, an air target identified as a Yak-130 aircraft entered our airspace from Belarus but stayed there for just 5 minutes.”
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 24, 2024
Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia:
/2. Debris of the Russian Orion UAV and the crash site in Taganrog. pic.twitter.com/ltq3qFlwEY
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 24, 2024
/4. It’s not the first time Orion crashes in Taganrog during the war. Another publicly known case was in the summer of 2023. https://t.co/5swFeGtoJG
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 24, 2024
I know some of you are still looking for places to make contributions to support Ukraine. Here’s one:
Guys, there’s a good opportunity to help a charity project for Ukrainian veterans.
My friend @vsheredeha and his spouse @Jabbermikkey are raising funds to operate and develop a recently launched veteran care department at the historical Pavlov Mental Health Hospital in Kyiv… pic.twitter.com/YL2Qysb3yq
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 24, 2024
Guys, there’s a good opportunity to help a charity project for Ukrainian veterans.
My friend @vsheredeha and his spouse @Jabbermikkey are raising funds to operate and develop a recently launched veteran care department at the historical Pavlov Mental Health Hospital in Kyiv (established in 1786!)
The guys recently renovated very old, unused premises provided by the hospital administration, launched a group therapy room, and are repairing a swimming pool.
(Check out the news story by @nahornyjtwi about their work below).
It’s all for the recovery of our soldiers whose souls were badly traumatized by war.
The guys always need generous donations to keep this project running and progressing. If you’re interested, follow them — they regularly report on their activities.
You can help them, too, no matter where you are in the world. It would be good for your everyday karma, a contribution to helping Ukrainian combat veterans return to a fulfilling life at home.
Here’s how you can help:
PayPal: [email protected]
MonoBanka (should work with most banking cards worldwide): https://send.monobank.ua/jar/3Rv1EttypbThank you all in advance!!
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today.
Here is another one of his cartoon episodes that I haven’t posted before.
Open thread!
