This Fall Will Determine What Comes Next in This War – Address by the President

22 September 2024 – 22:07

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

We are starting our visit to the United States – now we are flying to Pennsylvania. This visit is special. Then, we are heading to New York and Washington. This fall will determine what comes next in this war. Together with our partners, we can strengthen our positions as needed for our victory – our shared victory – for a truly just peace.

In the United States, Ukraine will present its Plan for Victory, and the U.S. President will be the first to see it in full. Of course, I will also present the Plan for Victory to all leaders of partner countries who, like President Biden, are world leaders and can become leaders of peace by helping us with the Plan for Victory. We will also present it to Congress – to both parties and both U.S. presidential candidates. America has all the necessary power to ensure what we need most together with Ukraine, our allies and partners. We need peace, exactly as envisioned by the Peace Formula. Exactly as envisioned by the UN Charter. We are doing everything for this.

Weapons to defend our independence and our people. Diplomacy to consolidate partners and force Russia into peace. And justice so that Russia is held accountable for this war and feels its consequences.

And gratitude – our gratitude to everyone who is helping. I thank every nation and every leader who has felt that this war, Russia’s war against Ukraine, is about much more than just the fate of our Ukrainian people. I thank the United States, our leading supporter, and every nation that has shown independence and leadership in helping us protect people and prevent Russia from expanding this war. When Ukraine succeeds in defending itself, every other democratic nation will benefit from this.

It is now being determined what the legacy of the current generation of state leaders, those in the highest offices, will be. In the coming days, we are going to meet with the leaders of the Global South, G7, Europe, and international organizations – with many people who help consolidate the world. There will be very important meetings with representatives of the United States. True peace and a true victory for Ukraine and international law is what we need.

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine has received verbal approval from its Western partners to fund its missile program, developed by the Ministry of Defense. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed this, noting that missile development is a top priority for Ukraine and its allies.https://t.co/6JhcKlrDmd

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) September 22, 2024

The cost:

Relatives and friends of the fallen Defenders gather near the graves at the Lychakiv Military Cemetery in Lviv very often. Some of them come right after dawn to drink the first morning coffee in the company of their deceased husbands, sons or brothers.

They have found new… pic.twitter.com/7KmTJUYOth

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 22, 2024

Relatives and friends of the fallen Defenders gather near the graves at the Lychakiv Military Cemetery in Lviv very often. Some of them come right after dawn to drink the first morning coffee in the company of their deceased husbands, sons or brothers.

They have found new friends, soul mates here, because they understand each other with a half-word.

“Those with whom I was friends before the tragedy do not understand me. And they won’t be able to understand me because they haven’t experienced what I have,” Olena, whose husband died at the front in 2023 says.

They are all united by indescribable pain. But found support, joy, and the desire to continue living and fighting.

📹: Hromadske

Militarnyi has the details:

Ukraine has received a verbal agreement from its Western partners to fund the missile program developed by the Ministry of Defense.

Rustem Umierov, Minister of Defense of Ukraine, announced this in an interview with the Rada TV channel.

According to him, Western partners have already verbally agreed to fund it, as this issue is one of the highest priorities.

Currently, the Ministry of Defense has assumed full responsibility for the development of products under this program to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with long-range weapons.

“Since this year, the Ministry of Defense has been taking the lead in this issue, we have developed a missile program,” Umierov said.

The development of missile systems is a strategically important area for Ukraine, as products of this type should be independent, with minimal use of foreign components.

“It is quite powerful, we have already exchanged with our partners and we are waiting to see how much of the capacity we can build missiles and drones they will support. But they have already given us a verbal agreement that they will finance this,” the Defense Minister added.

In July 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the media that Ukraine had tested an Ukrainian-made ballistic missile.

Additionally, the Minister reported that Ukraine’s missile program will closely cooperate with the drone program being implemented in Ukraine.

More at the link.

The EU:

The EU’s new defence commissioner @KubiliusA has called for obligatory ammunition stockpiles, telling @FT that capitals should be forced to have permanent inventories similar to rules on emergency gas storage levels https://t.co/3deh7NYq8x

— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) September 22, 2024

From The Financial Times:

The EU’s first defence commissioner wants to force countries to stockpile minimum levels of ammunition and other supplies, saying it is the best way to scale up the bloc’s undersized arms industry to ready it for war.

Andrius Kubilius, who will take the job this year if the European parliament approves, said the EU must prepare for Russian attack within a few years.

He compared his plan to similar arrangements for natural gas, under which countries must keep reserves and share them with neighbours in need.

“Why do we not have some kind of criteria called military security to keep in storage such and such an amount of artillery shells and some other products . . . let’s say powder [explosives]?

“You bring added value to the security of member states but in addition, you are creating permanent demand for production, which is the biggest issue for the defence industry. They lack stable long-term orders for production.”

The EU has tried to boost weapons output after Ukraine was forced to ration shells and missiles in its effort to push back Russian offensives.

Finland, Russia’s neighbour, is one of the few member states with large reserves of weaponry while media reports in Germany in 2022 said its army would run out of ammunition after two days of fighting.

Kubilius said he had no wish to duplicate the role of Nato. Officials at the US-dominated alliance have criticised the EU’s alternative set of equipment standards and procurement efforts.

In March, the EU allocated €500mn under the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) to boost output capacity to 2mn shells annually by the end of 2025.

Kubilius, a former Lithuanian prime minister, said that was an improvement on the 300,000 annual limit when Russia attacked Kyiv in 2022. But more is needed, he said. “If I’m correct, we’re still behind the Russians.”

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the bloc needs to spend €500bn to make up the shortfall in defence spending since the end of the cold war in the 1990s.

She has given Kubilius 100 days after taking office to produce a white paper on defence strategy. It should include a European air shield, which would cost hundreds of billions of euros, and a cyber defence system, she said.

Kubilius wants EU member states to borrow the money for this jointly, an idea opposed for now by net budget contributors Germany and the Netherlands.

He will also sketch out other projects of common interest that would be eligible for EU funding, including ways of incentivising defence industry companies to work together across borders.

The tendency of various European governments to favour their own national champions has led to a proliferation of different models of tanks, artillery pieces and fighting vehicles, denting efficiency.

More at the link.

For you Gepard SPAAG enthusiasts:

Crew of the Gepard 1a2 SPAAG which shot down 5 Russian cruise missiles and 7 Shahed kamikaze drones.

Video also shows the interception of one aerial target by Gepard. https://t.co/nB0V8wcBE1 pic.twitter.com/JPfQYTE35n

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2024

Vuhledar:

In the coming days and weeks, I’d suggest keeping an eye on Vuhledar, as the situation there could get very dynamic.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 22, 2024

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv: residents of a damaged building tell about the moment of the strike

According to Oleg Syniehubov, the head of the Regional Civil-Military Administration, residential buildings of 16 and 9 floors were destroyed by the GBU strike, and 7 other buildings were damaged. More… pic.twitter.com/PxzlHK330V

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 22, 2024

Kharkiv: residents of a damaged building tell about the moment of the strike

According to Oleg Syniehubov, the head of the Regional Civil-Military Administration, residential buildings of 16 and 9 floors were destroyed by the GBU strike, and 7 other buildings were damaged. More than 1200 windows were smashed.

📹- radio svoboda

Chasiv Yar:

How Russia is destroying the city of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region.

📹: Hromadske https://t.co/zRm5uGxmPo pic.twitter.com/PAhByGlyjX

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 22, 2024

The Kerch straits:

The answer is yes, of course Ukraine will drop that bridge…when they are ready and when it gets the greatest effect as part of on-going operations.

As Russia’s war escalates, will Ukraine down the Kerch Bridge in Crimea? https://t.co/LRRPa7KMgF via @AJEnglish

— Ben Hodges (@general_ben) September 22, 2024

LTG (ret) Hodges as quoted in al Jazeera:

A United States general told Al Jazeera that Ukraine is likely to launch a major new campaign to win back Crimea this year and says Washington should fully support it.

“We could be 100 percent clear to the Ukrainians and the Russians that we are 100 percent in favour of them retaking Crimea however they do it,” General Ben Hodges said.

He added: “Crimea … is sovereign Ukraine, and there will be no US tapping the brakes if they take down that Kerch Bridge – which I do predict is going to happen this year.”

Hodges commanded US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and was head of US forces in Europe before retiring.

Russia recently sank ships on either side of the bridge’s main span to protect its stanchions against Ukraine’s naval drones. Hodges believes Ukraine is now coming in for the final kill.

“The Russians know how vulnerable that bridge is, so they’ve put a lot of effort into air defence. They’ve sunk ferries along both sides to protect against these unmanned systems,” Hodges said.

“You’re not going to take it out with two or three Storm Shadows or ATACMS or something like that,” he said, referring to the British missiles with a 250km (155-mile) range and the US Army Tactical Missile Systems with a 300km (185-mile) range, which Ukraine has.

“You’re going to need an enormous amount of explosives, so this is going to be an operation with several different phases and aspects.

“It’s not going to be, ‘We didn’t get it this week. Let’s try again next week’. It’s going to be quite an operation,” Hodges added.

Politics may determine the timing.

“I think they’ll do it at a time when it gets literally the biggest bang but also contributes the most to whatever else is going on,” Hodges said.

Not everyone agrees that a Ukrainian operation against the Kerch Bridge is imminent.

“One of the reasons they’re leaving it is … they need to leave a path for the Russians to evacuate. They’re positioning themselves for that,” said Colonel Demetries Andrew Grimes, a special forces commander who was one of the first US officers to go to Ukraine after Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea.

He told Al Jazeera the timing of a Kerch Bridge operation would depend on whether Kyiv believes a majority of the population in Crimea would support a return of Ukrainian control.

“If [Ukraine’s armed forces] make the move and masses of Russians start leaving, then that’s a psychological victory. It’ll demonstrate that the Russian civilians don’t have faith in the Russian military protecting them and maintaining control of Crimea,” Grimes said.

That would place Russia in a dilemma – whether to force more military supplies in or allow waves of Russian speakers to leave.

“If you have a massive wave of people that are trying to leave, it’s going to be difficult for the Russians to try to bring in more supplies of weaponry.”

More at the link.

All of the Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants:

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Kremlin is preparing strikes on Ukrainian nuclear energy critical objects ahead of winter. In particular, it concerns open distribution devices at NPPs & transmission substations, critical for the safe operation of nuclear energy. 1/4

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) September 21, 2024

Damage to those facilities creates a high risk of a nuclear incident with global consequences. Our special services have passed those data to our partners. The IAEA was also informed. 2/4

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) September 21, 2024

Russia – the only state that seized an NPP in Europe, blackmailing the world.
Ukrainian #PeaceFormula has a provision for ensuring radiological & nuclear safety. We call on all international org’s & states that respect the UN Charter to prevent terrorist state’s scenario. 3/4

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) September 21, 2024

We’re grateful to @iaeaorg for a decision to expand missions at several 🇺🇦 nuclear facilities. We urge the Agency, partner nations & other org’s to expedite realization of agreements, as well as to establish a permanent enhanced missions’ presence at all relevant facilities. 4/4

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) September 21, 2024

Someone please teach the new Ukrainian Foreign Minister how to thread his tweets!

The Toropets ammo dump:

🇷🇺Toropets: 23rd GRAU Arsenal at Oktyabrskii

Substantial damage to the northern portion of the depot. 58+ storage building and multiple open areas turned to ash / heavily damaged. pic.twitter.com/ptA3zDteld

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) September 22, 2024

Second Russian ammunition depot in Toropetsk destroyed as a result of yesterday’s Ukrainian night attack. The vast majority of depot infrastructure ceased to exist.
(56.3611965, 31.6459438)https://t.co/NqnVuw08Mv https://t.co/uXljXlYkz8 pic.twitter.com/mzGEx7p815

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2024

According to the head of the Estonian Defence Forces intelligence centre, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, the ammunition, which had not yet been stored indoors, was delivered to the depot by train just before the attack was launched. After it, the ammunition in the yard detonated along… https://t.co/VrrCSOhjng pic.twitter.com/PNwPxaMSKw

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 22, 2024

According to the head of the Estonian Defence Forces intelligence centre, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, the ammunition, which had not yet been stored indoors, was delivered to the depot by train just before the attack was launched. After it, the ammunition in the yard detonated along with the bunkers and depots.

‘There were 30,000 tonnes of explosive objects or 750,000 rounds of ammunition that were detonated. On average, the RF released 10,000 shells a week. So this ammunition supply was intended for two or three months. Russia has suffered ammunition losses as a result of this attack, and we will see the impact of these losses on the front in the coming weeks,’ said Kiviselg (https://news.err.ee/1609466482/edf-colonel-russia-s-naval-training-exercise-was-smaller-than-announced).

And the Tikhoretsk ammo dump:

Tikhoretsk ammunition storage facility after yesterday’s Ukrainian night attack https://t.co/8cg1xhUJwa https://t.co/3dNG8NMvLH pic.twitter.com/zpFBNVVfeu

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2024

Archangelsk Oblast:

/2. More detailed satellite imagery of a failed Russian Sarmat ICBM test launch https://t.co/3Fg2LG1ZBi

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2024

/4. The size of the crater left as a result of a failed Sarmat ICBM test launch is 62 meters wide. https://t.co/DE1KTkf27t

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2024

Here’s the full text of the first quoted tweet:

My thanks to @MT_Anderson for providing this Planet Labs imagery and allowing me to publish it with comments.

As is readily apparent, the RS-28 Sarmat test was a complete failure. The missile detonated in the silo leaving a massive crater and destroying the test site. The Sarmat is a liquid fueled missile so this accident could have occurred separate from the actual launch activity.

If this occurred as part of the fueling process, it could explain the lack of Cobra Ball activity on the day of the incident. This first, and last successful test of the Sarmat was April 20th, 2022.

With these events now official, this is at least the 4th failed test attempt of the “combat operational” Sarmat Heavy ICBM.

Note the 4 fire trucks responding to the forest fire.

That’s enough for tonight.

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