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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

The words do not have to be perfect.

The National Guard is not Batman.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

Come on, man.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

We are learning that “working class” means “white” for way too many people.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Usually wrong but never in doubt

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

Dumb motherfuckers cannot understand a consequence that most 4 year olds have fully sorted out.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

A fool as well as an oath-breaker.

Stay strong, because they are weak.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

Consistently wrong since 2002

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

ProPublica – the Corrupt Aileen Cannon Is In the Spotlight

by WaterGirl|  September 17, 20244:12 pm| 53 Comments

This post is in: Activist Judges!, Open Threads, Politics, Trump Indictments

Cannon, whose oversight of the Donald Trump classified documents case has garnered widespread criticism, has repeatedly violated a rule requiring that federal judges disclose their attendance at private seminars.  (ProPublica)

I was hoping Cannon would have her time in the barrel!

In 2021 and 2022, Cannon took weeklong trips to the luxurious Sage Lodge in Pray, Montana, for legal colloquiums sponsored by George Mason, which named its law school for Scalia thanks to $30 million in gifts that conservative judicial kingmaker Leonard Leo helped organize.

Current rates for standard rooms at Sage Lodge can exceed $1,000 per night, depending on the season. With both Montana trips, Cannon’s required seminar disclosures were not posted until NPR reporters asked about the omissions this year as part of a broader national investigation of gaps in judicial disclosures.

.

Cannon’s annual disclosure form for 2023, which was due in May and offers another chance to report gifts and reimbursements from outside parties, has yet to be posted. (Cannon reported the two Montana trips on her annual disclosure forms, but the required 30-day privately funded seminar reports had not been posted. In 2021, Cannon incorrectly listed the school as “George Madison University.”)

The court’s administrative office declined to say if she requested a one-time extension to give her until Aug. 13 to file. A spokesperson would not discuss whether she met the deadline or the status of her disclosure, which must be reviewed internally.

Cannon’s performance during almost four years of a lifetime appointment has drawn criticism from lawyers, former federal judges and courtroom observers who told ProPublica that she doesn’t render timely decisions and has made unpredictable rulings in both civil and criminal matters. On July 15, she threw out the case brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith that alleges Trump mishandled classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence; Cannon called Smith’s appointment unconstitutional since he was not nominated by the president and approved by the Senate.

.

By contrast, Trump, who appointed Cannon in 2020 to the Fort Pierce courthouse, has praised her brilliance, and Federalist Society founder Steven Calabresi called her a heroine for throwing out the criminal case against Trump.

h/t Scout211

Open thread.

 

ProPublica – the Corrupt Aileen Cannon Is In the SpotlightPost + Comments (53)

Pager of Mass Destruction

by @heymistermix.com|  September 17, 20243:15 pm| 146 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

This is awful and strange at the same time:

Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate against Israel after pagers used by its members exploded across Lebanon simultaneously, killing at least nine people and wounding almost 3,000 in a dramatic and unprecedented attack at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on the blasts, which came just hours after Israel announced it was broadening the aims of the war sparked by the Hamas attacks on 7 October to include its fight against Hezbollah along the border with Lebanon.

Lebanon’s health minister, Firass Abiad, said the blasts on Tuesday killed a 10-year-old girl, among others. “About 2,750 people were injured … more than 200 of them critically,” with injuries mostly reported to the face, hands and stomach, Abiad told a press conference.

The apparent sabotage attack followed months of targeted assassinations by Israel against senior Hezbollah leaders and came as US officials try to de-escalate tensions between the two sides and remain concerned that Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could order a ground invasion of Lebanon. It threatens to derail efforts by the US to prevent Iran, which backs the Lebanese Shia militia, from retaliating against Israel for the July bombing in Tehran that killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh.

The blasts appeared to exploit the low-tech pagers that Hezbollah has adopted in order to prevent the targeted assassinations of its members, who could be tracked by mobile phone signals. Those wounded in the attack include Iran’s ambassador to Beirut, Mojtaba Amani, according to reports.

There’s a graphic video of a pager exploding in a grocery store at the Post, and just from a technology perspective, I’m amazed at the force of however much explosive was packed into a device that’s generally smaller than a deck of cards.  Whoever did this — and how could it be anyone but Israel — had to know that there was a huge potential for collateral damage of innocent bystanders.

Pager of Mass DestructionPost + Comments (146)

Operation Blue Arizona, Day 2 (with 48 days left)

by WaterGirl|  September 17, 202411:15 am| 29 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

It’s Day 2 of Operation Blue Arizona, and we have some new Balloon Juice Angels!

Angel Summary for Day 2

We have angels for 3 of our thermometers today!

lurker – Worker Power

silvery – Four Directions (+ external match!) so 4x matching

anonymous – Arizona Candidates 

Since you guys are already familiar with Worker Power and Four Directions,  I’ll include details about the candidates in this post, but just include the thermometers for the rest.  But if you have any questions, or you would like more information, let me know in the comments and I’ll include that in tomorrow’s post.

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO SHARE THIS POST ON SOCIAL MEDIA OR WITH ANYONE YOU KNOW WHO WOULD APPRECIATE KNOWING ABOUT GREAT ORGANIZATIONS AND CANDIDATES (where their contact information is not shared by default)

U.S. Congress

Amish Shah. Shah is an emergency room physician and State Representative who is taking on perpetually vulnerable Republican Congressman David Schweikert.  Schweikert retained his seat by only 3,000 votes in 2022.  Shah is running on protecting Medicare, border security and reproductive freedom.  Shah had to survive a primary in August, and needs the cash.

Kirsten Engel.  This is a rematch between first term Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani and challenger Kirsten Engel.  In 2022, he won by only 1.5% in an off-year election.  Engel is currently ahead in fundraising, but insiders in AZ warn of an upcoming Republican money bomb.

Arizona State Legislature

  • Republicans control the state Senate 16-14
  • Republicans control the House 31-29.
  • A Democratic flip will protect voting rights.
  • The state Republican party is batshit crazy and in total disarray.

While there are any number of potential candidates to support, we’re targeting four candidates in Legislative Districts 16 and 17 (Tucson and Casa Grande), where the Worker Power team we’re helping support is canvassing.

Keith Seaman:  Keith was a retired teacher and Legislator who was so outraged by Dobbs that he ran for a Republican state seat in 2022 and won.  Barely.  This is our only retention play.

Stacy Seaman:  Stacy is Keith’s daughter, a school teacher running to flip a House Republican seat.  The Seaman family is well known and respected in Pinal County (Casa Grande).

Kevin Volk:  Kevin is a young Tucson native, former intern for Gabby Giffords and started a small business owner focused on building affordable housing.  Another potential flip.

John Mclean:  John is a retired CEO, running for Senate on reproductive rights and fiscal responsibility, against a dangerous Republican.

Maricopa County Recorder

Tim Stringham (former JAG officer)

The office of Maricopa County Recorder is arguably Arizona’s second most important election protection official.  The Recorder oversees elections in Arizona’s most populous County, with over 60% of the state’s population.  The Republican is  a notorious election denier who refuses to debate the Democratic candidate we’re supporting.


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Operation Blue Arizona, Day 2 (with 48 days left)Post + Comments (29)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Another Day, Another Step Forward…

by Anne Laurie|  September 17, 20249:48 am| 244 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!

For only the second time in our 179-year history, the editors of Scientific American are endorsing a candidate for president. That person is @KamalaHarris. | Editorial https://t.co/dOsFW8BQCn

— Scientific American (@sciam) September 16, 2024

Swifties: With your help, we’re gonna defeat the smallest man who ever lived. pic.twitter.com/Amvf6MxIjk

— Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) September 15, 2024

History has just been made with far too little acknowledgment:

President Biden sat down with The Washington Blade — marking the first time a sitting president has given an exclusive interview to an LGBTQ+ news outlet.

Read the president's full conversation with Christopher…

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 16, 2024

Pretty much your standard beat-sweetner, except: (a) The Blade is explicitly an LBGTQ+ outlet; and (b) Once again, it ain’t the FTFNYTimes.

Writing about President Joe Biden’s legacy is difficult without the distance and time required to assess a leader of his stature, but what becomes clear from talking with him is the extent to which his views on LGBTQ rights come from the heart.

Biden leads an administration that has been hailed as the most pro-LGBTQ in American history, achieving major milestones in the struggle to expand freedoms and protections for the community.

Meanwhile, conservative elected officials at the local, state, and national levels have led an all-out assault against LGBTQ Americans — especially those who are transgender, and especially transgender youth, who face an uncertain future with Donald Trump promising to strip them of their rights and reverse the gains of the past four years if he is elected in November.

Biden shared his thoughts and reflections on these subjects and more in a wide-ranging sit-down interview with the Washington Blade on Sept. 12 in the Oval Office, which marked the first time in which an LGBTQ newspaper has conducted an exclusive interview with a sitting U.S. president…

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On LGBTQ issues more broadly, Biden said, “I think there are a lot of really good Republicans that I’ve served with, especially in the Senate, who don’t have a prejudiced bone in their body about this but are intimidated.”

“Because if you take a position, especially in the MAGA Republican Party now, you’re going to be — they’re going to go after you,” he added. “Trump is a different breed of cat. I mean, I don’t want to make this political, but everything he’s done has been anti, anti-LGBTQ, I mean, across the board.”

Project 2025, the president said, “is just full of nothing but disdain for the LGBTQ community. And you have Clarence Thomas talking about, when the decision was made [to overturn] Roe v Wade, that maybe we should consider changing the right of gays to marry — I mean, things that are just off the wall — just pure, simple, prejudice.”

“What I do worry about is I do worry about violence,” Biden said. “I do worry about intimidation. I do worry about what the MAGA right will continue to try to do, but I’m going to stay involved.”

“I’m going to remain involved in all the civil liberties issues that I have worked for my whole life.”

lmao just the 'Battleground States?' Oh so she can…accurately…call him a Nazi-coddling rapist in Brooklyn then? How about Kansas?

God you guys suck at this. Just ask her to take her name off the ballot in Michigan next time. https://t.co/tr6PyF8LMz

— zeddy (@Zeddary) September 17, 2024

This is a great argument for Repubs to make to Repubs to vote for Kamala Harris https://t.co/r3V6wEMUn0 pic.twitter.com/JL0cC8Bs30

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) September 16, 2024

Sharing this for a morning smile, and also to share a new speculation going around on social media: It’s possible that TFG assumes ‘transnational criminal gangs’ really means ‘transgender criminal gangs’ — a perversion of the natural order which Democrats would certainly facilitate — just as some people think his Hannibal Lector fixation comes from a confusion between ‘asylum seeking migrants’ and ‘insane asylum escapees’. Because, after all, he’s just a poorly educated Boomer who’s chosen to marinate his remaining brain cells in toxic wingnut sludge…

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Another Day, Another Step Forward…Post + Comments (244)

Come the Dawn Open Thread: What the ‘Kids’ Remember

by Anne Laurie|  September 17, 20243:19 am| 156 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Gun Issues, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads

NBC News: "The first graders who survived Sandy Hook will vote in their first presidential election"

"They are hoping to turn the tide by electing Vice President Kamala Harris as president."

"It's a no-brainer for me," said survivor Lilly Wasilnak, 18.https://t.co/3DXztoZ0dp

— Ian Sams (@IanSams) September 15, 2024

It’s not just the Sandy Hook survivors; there’s a whole generation of kids who’ve been subjected to school shooter drills because the ‘adults’ in charge love their guns more than they love their children. Per NBC News, “The first graders who survived Sandy Hook will vote in their first presidential election”:

Grace Fischer survived the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School by staying quiet and huddled, as her first grade teacher softly read “The Nutcracker.”

Then she spent the rest of her childhood watching mostly from the sidelines as dozens of similar shootings shattered other schools across the country.

Now 18, Fischer will vote in her first presidential election in November. It’s a monumental moment, nearly 12 years after she endured one of the deadliest school shootings in U.S. history, and it has given her and her peers hope that they can effect change…

Activists at the time hoped the tragedy in Newtown, Connecticut, would become a watershed moment and spark significant legislative action, said Emma Brown, executive director of Giffords, the gun safety group founded by former Rep. Gabby Giffords — a shooting survivor.

“The country was forced to look at this issue in a visceral, terrible way,” Brown said. “The loss of all of those kids in their classroom was so inconceivable and so horrific that even the politicians and the folks who had been trying to act like this wasn’t a growing problem in this country were unable to deny it for the first time.”…

States have since passed hundreds of gun-safety laws, but major federal bills that have been proposed, including bans on semiautomatic weapons and high-capacity magazines, have failed…

Friday marked 20 years since the 1994 federal assault weapons ban expired. Meanwhile, mass shootings have become more frequent…

On Thursday, the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions said guns were the leading cause of death among children and teens, killing more people ages 1 to 17 in the U.S. than car crashes and cancer, for the third year in a row.

“We were told this would be what turns everything around,” said Emma Ehrens, 18, who was next to the Sandy Hook gunman as he shot her classmates. “It really breaks your heart a little bit more every time.”

Ehrens, Fischer and two other first grade Sandy Hook survivors who spoke to NBC News said they are hoping to turn the tide by electing Vice President Kamala Harris as president.

“It’s a no-brainer for me,” said survivor Lilly Wasilnak, 18.

The teens first met Harris at the White House on National Gun Violence Awareness Day on June 6, as they were preparing to graduate high school. They shared their individual accounts of the shooting with Harris, who thanked them for their courage.

“None of you should have had the experience that you’ve had at all,” Harris told them, according to a video released by the White House. “Know that you guys are moving the needle.”

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Harris has said keeping students safe from gun violence at schools is a top priority. Her plan, which the survivors support, includes banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, and requiring universal background checks.

Harris also champions so-called red flag laws that allow a family member or law enforcement to seek a court order to temporarily confiscate guns if they feel a gun owner may cause harm…

Matt Holden, another survivor who turned 18 last month, said these plans differ from those of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, who received backlash last week after saying school shootings are a “fact of life.”…

At the rally, Vance said strict firearms restrictions are not the solution. Similarly, at a National Rifle Association event in May, Trump said he would roll back Biden administration executive orders designed to reduce gun violence…

Giffords spent $15 million to help Harris’ campaign as well as other House candidates who favor tougher gun laws, NBC News first reported.

Since Sandy Hook, states have passed more than 620 gun safety laws, Brown said. In 2022, President Joe Biden enacted the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the most significant gun-safety law in nearly 30 years.

“The momentum is there, and the will is there,” Brown said.

This fall, when the survivors vote for the first time, Wasilnak and Holden said it will be in honor of their first grade classmates who will not get to experience this milestone, as well as the educators who died making sure they would.

“I’m casting a vote for the 26 who can’t,” Wasilnak said.

Back in the early 1960s, during the Cuban Missile Crisis years, we didn’t have ‘duck & cover’ drills in my parochial school because — according to the nuns — the Bronx would be obliterated before we had that much warning. (Therefore, it was important we remain in a state of grace at all times, least a mushroom cloud destroy our chance at repentence.)

It was consolation, of a sort, but the ever-present threat certainly influenced an entire generation… and we didn’t even have to witness an actual bombing, apart from some grainy ‘historical’ videos.

Come the Dawn Open Thread: What the ‘Kids’ RememberPost + Comments (156)

New Hampshire School System Says ‘Hold My Beer’

by WaterGirl|  September 16, 20249:48 pm| 183 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Is there a word for ‘Hateful and Petty to the 10th Power”?

One of our BJ peeps wrote to tell me about a ‘lovely’ school in New Hampshire.  In his words:

We are infested with libertarians and MAGA, I’m sure this sounded good in their bubble (the town in question is generally conservative), but when exposed to the more rational part of the electorate it shows how mean and nasty the right has become.

Heres’ the story as I understand it:

  •  Some families had unpaid bills for school lunches
  •  A local church offered to pay off the bills for school lunches
  •  The school system sues the families instead
  •  When this made the news, it didn’t go so well for the school system in the court of public opinion
  •  And apparently the school system is surprised?

After rejecting an offer from a local church to pay off all student lunch debt, Goffstown School District Business Administrator Scott Gross is instead taking families to court.

These people are monsters:

  • Gross said he was concerned the gift would lead to more families not paying for student lunches, according to Wells.
  • One of the arguments against St. Matthew’s helping that Gross raised with Wells last year, is that some of the families don’t qualify under the guidelines as poor and should therefore be made to pay.
  • A blanket gift for all the debt would be helping people who did not deserve the assistance.

But for Wells, that’s not the point. He cited Catholic author and activist Dorothy Day who said, “The Gospel takes away our right forever to discriminate between the deserving and the undeserving poor.”

I am reminded of my favorite line in the song Eve of Destruction: Hate your next door neighbor, but don’t forget to say grace.

The Eastern world, it is explodin’
Violence flarin’, bullets loadin’
You’re old enough to kill but not for votin’
You don’t believe in war, but what’s that gun you’re totin’?
And even the Jordan river has bodies floatin’
But you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
How you don’t believe
We’re on the eve of destruction
Don’t you understand what I’m trying to say
Can’t you feel the fears I’m feeling today?
If the button is pushed, there’s no runnin’ away
There’ll be no one to save with the world in a grave
Take a look around you boy, it’s bound to scare you, boy
And you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
How you don’t believe
We’re on the eve of destruction
Yeah, my blood’s so mad, feels like coagulatin’
I’m sittin’ here just contemplatin’
I can’t twist the truth, it knows no regulation
Handful of senators don’t pass legislation
And marches alone can’t bring integration
When human respect is disintegratin’
This whole crazy world is just too frustratin’
And you tell me
Over and over and over again, my friend
How you don’t believe
We’re on the eve of destruction
And think of all the hate there is in Red China
Then take a look around to Selma, Alabama
Ah, you may leave here for four days in space
But when you return, it’s the same old place
The poundin’ of the drums, the pride and disgrace
You can bury your dead, but don’t leave a trace
Hate your next door neighbor but don’t forget to say grace
And you tell me
Over and over and over and over again, my friend
You don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction
No no, you don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction

Jesus wept.

Open thread.

New Hampshire School System Says ‘Hold My Beer’Post + Comments (183)

War for Ukraine Day 936: A Brief Monday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  September 16, 20248:45 pm| 8 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping updates. First, Rosie is doing well after her treatment today. Just two more to go. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, today was a much longer day than I was expecting. Nothing bad, just long. So just the basics tonight.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Next Week, We Are Preparing to Present the Victory Plan to Our Allies – President’s Address

16 September 2024 – 19:47

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, almost the entire day was focused primarily on military matters. There was a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi – a lengthy conversation at the start of the day, and just now, we spoke again to review the day’s outcomes. Over a hundred battles have taken place since the start of this day, with the most intense fighting in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions. We are defending our positions. We also reviewed the Kursk operation in detail, and each day we are acting precisely as planned. I want to thank every brigade and every unit for their coordinated actions and true resilience. Today, I signed several decrees awarding state honors to our warriors, particularly participants in the Kursk operation. I am proud of each and every one of them!

I held a meeting of the Staff, with a detailed focus on the protection of energy facilities. This included physical protection, relevant construction projects, air defense, and electronic warfare. The Prime Minister and energy companies provided reports. Additionally, there was an in-depth report from our intelligence services on the situation in the ranks of the occupying army, the situation on Russian territory, and within its population. It is important for us that the perception of the war in Russia is deteriorating, as is the public’s view of the results of Putin’s policies. We are working to ensure that reality ultimately overcomes Russian state propaganda. Of course, we are also preparing for Russia’s future actions in battles on the frontline. We are continuously working to ensure Ukraine has sufficient capacity and resources for the production and supply of drones. Regardless of changing global circumstances, Ukrainian warriors must receive everything necessary for successful defensive and active operations. Provision of drones is not merely a tactical matter – it is a strategic priority. I thank everyone involved in this effort, especially those helping our troops master new drone operation tactics.

Throughout the day, meetings were held in various formats to prepare our Ukrainian Victory Plan. The real substance of all the points – military, political, diplomatic, and economic. Key people from each sector are involved. The necessary steps for Ukraine have already been clearly defined. The steps designed to give us the strongest possible position to bring about peace – a real, just peace. For each step, there is a clear list of what is needed and what will strengthen us. There is nothing impossible in this plan. Over 90% has already been written out. Together, this package can ensure the right development of the situation not only for Ukraine, but for everyone in the world who values international law. Next week, we are preparing to present the Victory Plan to our allies.

Thank you to everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who helps us protect lives!

Glory to Ukraine!

This is all necessitated because the Biden administration has told the Ukrainians that until or unless they can articulate a plan to achieve victory against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion that satisfies the Biden administration, then the Biden administration is not going to lift the restrictions on the use of long range US weaponry. Frankly, it won’t matter much at this point even if they do because Russia has now moved everything even farther east and out of the range of the weaponry that Ukraine wants to use.

The cost:

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

я була морально готова, але коли побачила тата, то хвилин 20 очі звикали до цього. ось так він зараз виглядає. був в полоні 2 роки 4 місяці. друге фото – січень 2022, яке я зробила перед його відʼїздом в Маріуполь.
перше фото @Liberov pic.twitter.com/ptGZa8Y6zj

— Alina (@alina_smo) September 16, 2024

Here’s the machine translation:

I was mentally ready, but when I saw my dad, it took 20 minutes for my eyes to get used to it. this is what he looks like now. was in captivity for 2 years and 4 months. the second photo is from January 2022, which I took before he left for Mariupol.
first photo @Liberov

Part 2 pic.twitter.com/agop9EIOAn

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 16, 2024

The US:

State Dept says Blinken and Biden discussed Ukraine on Friday.

Blinken conveyed his conversations with @Zelenskyy_Uaa and other Ukrainian leaders.

“I don’t have any announcements to make today”, DoS Spox adds.

— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) September 16, 2024

If only there was someone to be saying out loud all these 900 days that deliberations in supporting Ukraine only give Russia time to prepare for a long total war and find allies among rogue regimes. pic.twitter.com/KrytLghtjY

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 16, 2024

Also, the US:

Framing would-be Trump assassin Ryan Routh as a “Ukraine supporter” is deeply misleading.
Read these posts. This isn’t “support.” He’s clearly unwell, a straight up nutter ranting and raving about Ukraine at politicians, actors, and even Elton John like a drunk in a park. https://t.co/ehbHuyZFzp

— Jessica Berlin (@berlin_bridge) September 16, 2024

Here’s the rest of the quoted thread:

Long thread of the Trump shooter Ryan Routh’s craziest posts on X 🧵

1. Writes Ukrainian presidential advisor Podolyak that he, Ryan Routh, will personally buy Poland’s MiG-29 fighter jets and then “fly them at night just above ground and hit every place Putin sleeps”Image

2. Writes Polish Defense Minister Błaszczak that he’s an American business man who wants to meet with the Minister to buy Poland’s MiG-29 fighter jets and transfer them to Ukraine.Image
3. Writes U.S. Senator Mazie Hirono to ask whether she can help him “borrow some Patriot Missile Defense Systems”Image

4. Writes Sean Penn with a request that Sean and Ryan but Poland’s MiG-29 fighters jets together and then go together to borrow some Patriot Missile Defense Systems at the border.

“How can they say no to you?”Image

5. Writes U.S. Senator Brian Schatz that he is flying out to Ukraine in a few days but needs the Senator’s help to borrow some Patriot Missile Defense Systems which he, as a civilian, will then “learn how to operate”Image
6. Goes to Taiwan to offer them “50 000 Afghan soldiers”Image
7. Writes Seth Rogan to inform him that Seth, James Franco and Ryan himself should go together to North Korea to talk with Kim Jong Un to show him that America and North Korea can be friends.Image

8. Tries to write to the head of Hong Kong’s local government Carrie Lam hoping that she will make him “her private American advisor at no cost”

He believes that he and Carrie Lam can sit down with the protesting students and “find solutions”Image

9. Writes the Belarusian opposition during the street protests in the wake of the falsified presidential election in 2020.

Advises them to “buy sniper rifles from Amazon”Image

10. Writes Elton John with the hope that they can release a songs together to rally more support for Ukraine.

Ryan has already prepared the lyrics and music to the song “We Are One.”

He believes it would be a good idea to have young kids sing the chorusImage

11. Writes the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council that he has 20 000 Afghan and Syrian soldiers that could come to Ukraine to fight against Russia.Image
12. Writes Tulsi Gabbard during her primary campaign in 2020 that he has requested she go with him to help out an a homeless shelter in Hawaii in a PR-move to help her campaignImage

13. After never receiving an answer from Tulsi, he gets angry and accuses her of being a “Republican and a Trump nut”

Says the grey streak in her hair is “stupid”Image

14. Writes Nikki Haley to tell her he is disappointed in her. Wanted to hear more in her speech about Taiwan, China, Ukraine and “the Gaza Murders”Image
15. Admits days before leaving for Ukraine that he has “no military experience” but hopes to receive help from journalist Jack HewsonImage

And the final 16th tweets:

Claims he is a “Hawaii leader” and invites Kim Jong Un to Hawaii for vacation. Says he can arrange the whole trip.Image

Oy vey.

But wait, there’s more…

Warning about Ryan Routh: he is not, and never has been, associated with the International Legion or the Ukrainian Armed Forces at all. He is not, & never has been, a legion recruiter. He is misrepresenting himself and lying to many people.
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Routh is currently posting on Facebook about getting Afghanistan citizens into the International Legion. He told the New York Times in 2023 that he wanted to get soldiers into Ukraine illegally.

nytimes.com/2023/03/25/wor…

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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/world/europe/volunteers-us-ukraine-lies.html
Ryan Routh has many many public Facebook posts about getting soldiers into Ukraine in 2023 and 2024. He has no authority to act on behalf of Ukraine, and ignores laws about visas.
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Routh is either human trafficking, scamming people, or attempting to break as many country’s laws as he can by trying to smuggle people into Ukraine to fight. This is unethical, unprofessional, and unacceptable. Worse, he is doing this by insisting he is helping Ukraine. 

Other issues: Routh has posted soldiers phone numbers on websites without permission; given out recruiters phone numbers to people without permission; manipulates people to breaking laws. Avoid any contact with Routh, as he misrepresents what he can legally do.

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I served in the International Legion for two years, and I’ve told Routh many times since 2022 that he’s not helping and what he’s going is illegaly. He doesn’t listen. 

Second screenshot. Look how he reacts when called on his behavior. He was another guy with a hero complex that turned on Ukraine when he got rejected. Many such cases. https://t.co/VtqbVTUSIS

— SK Media🇺🇦 (@SpaghettiKozak) September 16, 2024

That boy ain’t right!

Danish military expert Anders Nielsen @anderspuck shares his opinion on why the West does not respond with force to Russian provocations:

▪️ Recently, there has been an increase in hybrid attacks on Europe, which Russia or its agents may be behind. These include fires, sabotage,… pic.twitter.com/nliu8vp8Lo

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 16, 2024

Danish military expert Anders Nielsen @anderspuck shares his opinion on why the West does not respond with force to Russian provocations:

▪️ Recently, there has been an increase in hybrid attacks on Europe, which Russia or its agents may be behind. These include fires, sabotage, cyber attacks, attempted murders.

In addition, there have recently been several cases when Russian drones violated the airspace of NATO countries – Romania, Latvia, and Poland.

▪️ Contrary to expectations, the Western reaction to these incidents was very calm. There was no media uproar, and no direct action against Russia was taken. According to Anders Nielsen, there is a good reason for this.

“The first thing to understand is that this is a very deliberate strategy on the part of the Western countries not to make a big deal out of these things,” the analyst believes.

Nielsen believes that NATO countries have the courage and guts to confront Russia. However, Western governments believe that such a confrontation is not in their interests.

Because the point of Russian provocations is not the action itself but the creation of the effect in the information space. In fact, these are information operations.

▪️ What the Kremlin is trying to accomplish:
– set the agenda in the Western news media;
– move the war to Europe so that Europeans feel the consequences;
– to force NATO countries to withdraw support from Ukraine and redirect resources to their own defense.

Accordingly, the lack of response to Russian provocations and hybrid warfare is a refusal to play by the rules set by Russia.

▪️ The Western strategy of ignoring Russian hybrid attacks has been successful so far. Russia has failed to drive a wedge between Western countries and Ukraine, and the aid and support have not stopped.

However, in the long term, if Russia continues to send more and more drones across the border into NATO countries, it will become difficult to pretend that this is all an accident or a mistake.

Latvia:

Latvia announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at EUR 40 million.

The package will include 9 CVR(T) armored fighting vehicles, drones, individual equipment for soldiers and sappers.

We are grateful to our Latvian friends for their staunch support. Together, we… pic.twitter.com/oF7mIynQNv

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 16, 2024

Latvia announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at EUR 40 million.

The package will include 9 CVR(T) armored fighting vehicles, drones, individual equipment for soldiers and sappers.

We are grateful to our Latvian friends for their staunch support. Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇻
@AizsardzibasMin

@AndrisSpruds

Denmark:

Ukraine will receive another batch of F-16 fighter jets from Denmark by the end of the year

This was announced by the country’s Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.

The number of planes is classified for security reasons. pic.twitter.com/awNmnZDNTQ

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 16, 2024

Syria:

❗️BREAKING:

Kyiv Post: Ukrainian Defense Intelligence blows up Russian UAV base in Syria

At the base in Aleppo, Russia manufactured and tested attack drones and “camouflaged improvised explosive devices”.

Special forces destroyed the positions. pic.twitter.com/4i18OXU20Y

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 16, 2024

Kharkiv:

Took trolley around Kharkiv. It feels extra special during blackouts and air raids. You can see the city’s strength and beauty everywhere, even in the scarred facade of Kharkiv Palace. Hole left by missile now covered with windows printed on film pic.twitter.com/RCnFiHKGM7

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 16, 2024

The Kursk cross border offensive:

The destruction of a modern russian BMD-4 IFV in the Kursk region.

📹: Air Assault Forces Command pic.twitter.com/3qQb4M9H0G

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 16, 2024

⚡️JUST IN:

Authorities in Russia’s Kursk region announced mandatory evacuation from Rylsk and Khomutovsk districts

What about the “counteroffensive” of the Russian army? pic.twitter.com/ore3xMp57C

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 16, 2024

Moscow:

Putin has signed a decree increasing the overall size of the Russian armed forces by 180,000: to 2.39 million people. Of that, 1.5 million are actual military (as opposed to civilian)https://t.co/9k89LKQylS pic.twitter.com/tjGskvLZoL

— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) September 16, 2024

Today, Putin increased the military’s size for the 3rd time since 2022. Can they sustain 1.5M postwar, at a time when the budget will be under pressure to procure equipment? Not without tradeoffs. See my new report for more on this and other tradeoffs👇 https://t.co/jafqgTzksb

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) September 16, 2024

From the Carnegie Endowment:

SUMMARY
Russia is poised to begin a long-term military reconstitution program designed to restore losses from its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to potentially expand the force beyond 2022 levels. While the Kremlin has not yet decided on the future force design of its military, this paper highlights the near-term policy choices, opportunities, and constraints that will likely shape Russia’s military reconstitution process through 2030. As the Kremlin’s antagonism toward Ukraine and the West sharpens, it will be critically important for policymakers and warfighters to anticipate, monitor, and respond to Russia’s military reconstitution progress in the years ahead.

What is reconstitution, and how should it be thought of in practice? Broadly speaking, reconstitution is a process by which a military unit is restored to a sufficient level of combat capability after sustaining losses in combat. Reconstitution is accomplished through replenishing a unit with personnel, equipment, and other critical enabling components. Reconstitution begins during wartime and continues in the postwar period, as military and civilian leaders make procurement and recruiting investments to restore wartime losses.

Reconstitution should not be framed as a military force being in a binary state of “reconstituted” or “unreconstituted,” and nor should reconstitution be measured only through the restoration of prewar numbers of personnel and equipment. Conceptualizing reconstitution in such a manner is too imprecise to be beneficial for strategists and planners. Reconstitution is a process of regaining combat functions, proficiency, and capabilities that will allow a force to execute various types of combat missions.

A more precise method of evaluating Russian reconstitution requirements and the Kremlin’s progress toward those goals involves identifying requisite force structures and proficiency levels for Russian forces to accomplish different types of missions. Reconstitution requirements vary based on the specific conflict scenario, whether it is a limited power projection into another neighboring country that is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a second attempt at achieving 2022 maximalist invasion goals for Ukraine, or a war against NATO.

In the two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has chosen to reconstitute its forces without setting the economy on a full war footing. It has done so through partial mobilization, repairing on-hand equipment, purchasing ammunition and weapons from abroad, offering lucrative financial incentives for volunteer soldiers, and maximizing production at existing defense factories. Yet, apart from drone production, equipment production capacities have plateaued as of early 2024. Russia could generate more efficiency in the system by reducing corruption on the margins and reemphasizing innovation for certain technologies, but this would not result in a dramatic increase in available resources.

For Russia to reach a fundamentally higher level of weapons production or manpower availability compared to early 2024 levels, the government would need to activate additional mobilization authorities that would likely affect its economy, labor market, and population’s engagement with the war, putting the country on even more of a wartime footing than it is as of 2024. Thus far, the Kremlin’s calculus and political will have constrained Russia from taking such a step.

While a precise vision of the future regenerated Russian military has not yet come into focus, it is clear from recent debates and actions that Russian leadership intends to enlarge the force. It is also likely that the acquisition of combat experience has raised the military’s proficiency. Still, Russia faces multiple financial and demographic factors that will constrain how far it can grow qualitatively and quantitatively by 2030.

Key Findings

  • Thus far, Russian leaders speak in euphemisms about their combat losses in Ukraine and cloak their considerable regeneration requirements by tying them to a need to counterbalance NATO expansion. This allows authorities to justify expenses and force expansion without admitting that these high requirements mostly stem from losses in Ukraine.
  • Russia is reconstituting its force in the short term by refurbishing older equipment at sufficient rates, mobilizing personnel, and recruiting volunteers. The majority of Russia’s equipment delivered to the front lines is refurbished equipment. It is suitable for soldiers’ needs but is qualitatively worse than newer equipment. If early 2024 loss rates continue, Russia risks depleting available Soviet-era stockpiles for certain types of equipment possibly in 2026.
  • Russian leaders have a few options for reconstituting the force in the medium term (through 2030), and the path they choose will be determined by the Kremlin’s priorities. If reconstituting and expanding the force as quickly as possible is of paramount importance, Russia’s current reconstitution efforts, which have plateaued, will be insufficient. In this case, Russian leaders will likely be forced to take steps that they have so far resisted—for example, activating additional mobilization authorities to move society and the economy to expand domestic production capacity.
  • If managing domestic stability and economic concerns are more important than rapid reconstruction and force expansion, Russian leaders will likely continue to accept risk and produce equipment at the current 2024 capacity levels, or gradually expand production over time through the early 2030s. This pathway is probably only feasible for the Kremlin if the conflict in Ukraine freezes or ends and Russia is willing to temporarily rely on older Soviet equipment from reserves as it produces new equipment over time.
  • Presently, several structural factors limit the rate at which new Russian military equipment can be produced. Space at Russian defense factories is in high demand for multiple purposes (new builds, repairs, and exports) and cannot easily be converted to increase new domestic production without resulting in tradeoffs. Further, Russia’s production capacity cannot be expanded much beyond 2024 levels unless new factories are built or Russian leaders accept the risk in temporarily halting exports (which is unlikely) or halting production while factories can be retooled and updated (which is incompatible with production rates needed to sustain wartime demands).
  • Other methods to expand defense industrial output include expanding powers to convert civilian factories into wartime production factories, which would be a signpost that mobilization is expanding in Russia. Russia could opt to import armored equipment from other countries, although doing so would be a major departure from historical norms. Such a departure would suggest that Russia is unwilling to accept risk in the short term and plans to continue offensive action against Ukraine.
  • Reconstituting personnel and proficiency in the postwar years will also be a complex challenge for the Kremlin. Impacts of the war on military retention are currently masked due to wartime policies that prohibit servicemen from resigning. Russia is resorting to providing higher wages and social benefits to attract wartime recruits, but maintaining this high per capita spending in the postwar period would add more internal pressure on an already high defense budget.
  • Some officials are requesting a larger force—up to 1.5 million personnel, but so far the force remains capped at an elevated 1.3 million. Expanding the force would require significant investment in the production of new equipment, the recruitment of additional professional soldiers in a society that has recently grown accustomed to high wages and expensive social entitlements and benefits, as well as the construction of new military base infrastructure. These expenses would coincide with procurement pressures on an already bloated defense budget and an already strained male labor force.
  • Notably, Russia has large untapped human resources that so far have not been utilized to staff the war effort. Russia has not reached far into its large reserve officer cadre, and nor have they lifted restrictions on the types of positions Russian women can hold in the military or the defense industrial base. Instead, authorities have chosen other stopgap measures, such as condensing military training for new cadets or recruiting from prisons or abroad to fill its military billets and some defense industry jobs. Changes to these policies would be a signpost that Russia intends to expand the military or defense industry workforce.
  • Excessive secrecy about casualties and equipment losses, along with expanded censorship laws that limit free speech on many topics related to the Russian military, are likely to hinder or distort reconstruction debates. Criticisms of the war effort, particularly of the high equipment and manpower costs, are increasingly taboo, criminalized, or classified. Such a closed environment limits the discourse on reconstruction and the future design of the Russian military. This secrecy, self-censorship, and censorship are also at odds with the Kremlin’s directives to increase innovation in the private sector.
  • Groups of junior officers and experienced noncommissioned officers (NCOs) have sustained the heaviest casualties in the war, but the survivors will have extended combat experience and compressed formal military education. This combination may lead to rapid transformational change in the Russian military in the future, if the survivors’ experiences can be harnessed and introduced widely in the postwar years.
  • Russia’s preferences for a larger force may not be entirely compatible with its demographic and financial realities, and the Kremlin may find that it is unable or unwilling to finance a larger professional standing army. Balancing these preferences and constraints may lead once again to a mixed readiness system for the military, where a smaller and financially manageable active-duty force of 1 million is maintained along with an expansive (and now combat experienced) strategic reserve of personnel and equipment that could be mobilized if necessary. This path would allow Russia to maintain a larger force potential without incurring the significant financial costs and infrastructure requirements of maintaining a larger permanently ready force. Such a force would resemble the return of the mixed readiness system of the late-Soviet and immediate post-Soviet era and would be a significant departure from the last twenty years of force posture and military thought.
  • The Russian military has historical experience with capturing lessons learned from wars and implementing them throughout the force. Specifically, the military may draw from experiences of the post–World War II learning period that rapidly ingested and disseminated lessons throughout the Soviet military. Formal learning organizations will likely be set up in the immediate postwar years to conduct analysis and disseminate the findings to influence concepts, operational art, and force design. This process will be impeded if the process is compromised due to political sensitivities or false reporting.

Much more at the link.

This is probably as much propaganda as intention signaling. For the foreseeable future the size of Russia’s military will be determined by casualty and recruitment rates, not by size target, but many journos are naive enough to report the size target as if it’s the actual size. https://t.co/WIz0Cd1eYf

— Tom Warner (@warnerta) September 16, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

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