• Menu
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • About Us
  • Lexicon
  • Contact Us
  • Our Store
  • ↑
  • ↓

Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

The press swings at every pitch, we don’t have to.

Dear legacy media: you are not here to influence outcomes and policies you find desirable.

We will not go back.

Radicalized white males who support Trump are pitching a tent in the abyss.

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

All hail the time of the bunny!

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

This blog will pay for itself.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Mobile Menu

  • 4 Directions VA 2025 Raffle
  • 2025 Activism
  • Donate with Venmo, Zelle & PayPal
  • Site Feedback
  • War in Ukraine
  • Submit Photos to On the Road
  • Politics
  • On The Road
  • Open Threads
  • Topics
  • Authors
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Lexicon
  • Our Store
  • Politics
  • Open Threads
  • 2025 Activism
  • Garden Chats
  • On The Road
  • Targeted Fundraising!
Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: Bidenomics Whining – Boxing Day Edition

by Anne Laurie|  December 26, 20235:09 pm| 163 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You, Our Failed Media Experiment

Tuesday Evening Open Thread:  Bidenomics Whining - Boxing Day Edition

I don't think the dismal science can parse the sort of consumer confidence that involves buying an obscene amount of high-quality meat (at a normal price) to prove that the economy sucks. pic.twitter.com/2Fln8pRnib

— Brasidas (@br4s1d4s) December 24, 2023


It’s not clear to me whether the offended consumer actually *bought* sixteen pounds of prime rib, or if he just objects to the concept of that much expensive meat being on offer at an ‘ordinary’ supermarket…

I’ve been driving around the East for the past couple of weeks. Parking lots are full at food places, malls, hotels are crowded. Gas prices are way down. Somehow people are managing in this “terrible” economy.

— Michael Baker (@mbpmbp1) December 24, 2023

Perhaps coincidentally, the NYTimes had a big illustrated feature on “The Rise and Fall of Prime-Rib Nation“.

show full post on front page

Between OnionGate, ChickenGate, BourbonGate, and a host of other embarrassing snafus, it should now be clear as to *why* many media heads want their employees off Twitter, and why several view it as a net negative. It often provides more embarrassment than it does traffic. pic.twitter.com/fthEiTGTbm

— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) December 24, 2023

No, it should now be clear that these people shouldn’t be paid money to opine

— D.N. Nation (@dnnation) December 24, 2023

While you’re all still here, though, I really need someone to start a fight over bottled Aquafina prices so we can have a modern day WaterGate.

— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) December 24, 2023

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: Bidenomics Whining – Boxing Day EditionPost + Comments (163)

Open Thread: Boxing Day

by TaMara|  December 26, 20231:53 pm| 51 Comments

This post is in: Cat Blogging, Open Threads, Pet Blogging

Well, none of mine are in boxes, but they are not as enamored of them as others in their species seem to be. But I decided they needed equal time. Since the pups got all the Christmas love.

Open Thread: Boxing Day

Zander Chillin’

Open Thread: Boxing Day 1

Sully and Willow plotting…something

This is an open thread

Open Thread: Boxing DayPost + Comments (51)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: The Week Between the Years

by Anne Laurie|  December 26, 20237:56 am| 127 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You, Something Good, Space

55 years ago #Today, one of the most famous images ever taken was snapped from the orbit of the Moon by the Apollo 8 crew.

Now known as Earthrise, with modern digital technology, the iconic image — originally in black and white — has been remastered. pic.twitter.com/c8GHK7ko7n

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) December 24, 2023

Some people hate going into the office this week, because it’s impossible to make any progress when so many people are out and/or businesses short-staffed. Some would prefer to be at their office, to finally get some work done without the usual distractions. And then there’s those who are spending time with loved ones they are loving less by the hour…

To everyone, condolences or congratulations… and let’s keep in mind that not everyone is gonna be in the best mood right now.

The secret life of gift cards: Here's what happens to the billions that go unspent each year https://t.co/zPh7NWlYfZ

— The Associated Press (@AP) December 25, 2023


Possibly helpful information on those gift cards for Hooters / Victoria’s Secret / the chain restaurant that doesn’t have a franchise within 100 miles of your home even assuming you’d ever lower your standards that far:

… Americans are expected to spend nearly $30 billion on gift cards this holiday season, according to the National Retail Federation. Restaurant gift cards are the most popular, making up one-third of those sales…

Gift cards get lost or forgotten, or recipients hang on to them for a special occasion. In a July survey, the consumer finance company Bankrate found that 47% of U.S. adults had at least one unspent gift card or voucher. The average value of unused gift cards is $187 per person, a total of $23 billion…

Under a federal law that went into effect in 2010, a gift card can’t expire for five years from the time it was purchased or from the last time someone added money to it. Some state laws require an even longer period. In New York, for instance, any gift card purchased after Dec. 10, 2022, can’t expire for nine years.

show full post on front page

Differing state laws are one reason many stores have stopped using expiration dates altogether, says Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate…

While it may take gift cards years to expire, experts say it’s still wise to spend them quickly. Some cards — especially generic cash cards from Visa or MasterCard — will start accruing inactivity fees if they’re not used for a year, which eats away at their value. Inflation also makes cards less valuable over time. And if a retail store closes or goes bankrupt, a gift card could be worthless.

Perhaps consider clearing out your stash on National Use Your Gift Card Day, a five-year-old holiday created by a public relations executive and now backed by multiple retailers. The next one is Jan. 20, 2024.

If you have a gift card you don’t want, one option is to sell it on a site like CardCash or Raise. Rossman says resale sites won’t give you face value for your cards, but they will typically give 70 to 80 cents per dollar…

 

Jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny confirmed his arrival at what he described as a snow-swept prison above the Arctic Circle and said he was in excellent spirits despite a tiring 20-day journey to get there https://t.co/fExNJPZlW1

— Reuters (@Reuters) December 26, 2023


*Relatively* good news, considering the alternative, per Reuters:

MOSCOW, Dec 26 (Reuters) – Jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny on Tuesday confirmed his arrival at what he described as a snow-swept prison above the Arctic Circle and said he was in excellent spirits despite a tiring 20-day journey to get there.

Navalny posted an update on X via his lawyers after his allies lost touch with him for more than two weeks while he was in transit with no information about where he was being taken, prompting expressions of concern from Western politicians.

His spokeswoman said on Monday that Navalny, 47, had been tracked down to the IK-3 penal colony north of the Arctic Circle located in Kharp in the Yamal-Nenets region about 1,900 km (1200 miles) northeast of Moscow.

“I am your new Father Frost,” Navalny wrote jokingly in his first post from his new prison, a reference to the harsh weather conditions there…

Navalny’s new home, known as “the Polar Wolf” colony, is considered to be one of the toughest prisons in Russia. Most prisoners there have been convicted of grave crimes. Winters are harsh – and temperatures are due to drop to around minus 28 Celsius (minus 18.4 Fahrenheit) there over the next week.

About 60 km (40 miles) north of the Arctic Circle, the prison was founded in the 1960s as part of what was once the GULAG system of forced Soviet labour camps, according to the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper.

Navalny, who thanked his supporters and everyone else for their concern about his welfare during his long transfer, said he had seen guards with machineguns and guard dogs and had gone for a walk in the exercise area which he said was located in a neighbouring cell, the floor of which he said was covered with snow…

 

276 Indians stuck in a French airport for days for a human trafficking probe arrive in India https://t.co/uLTtHXGgvh

— The Associated Press (@AP) December 26, 2023


And for those of you surviving, or dreading, the rigors of holiday travel, a global saga for the books from the Associated Press — “276 Indians stuck in a French airport for days for a human trafficking probe arrive in India”:

A charter plane that was grounded in France for a human trafficking investigation arrived in India with 276 Indians aboard early Tuesday, authorities said. The passengers had been heading to Nicaragua but were instead blocked inside the Vatry Airport for four days in an exceptional holiday ordeal.

The regional administration said that 276 of the original 303 passengers were en route to Mumbai, and that 25 others requested asylum in France. Those who remained were transferred to a special zone in Paris’ Charles de Gaulle airport for asylum-seekers, it said. The passengers grounded in France had included a 21-month-old child and several unaccompanied minors.

The Legend Airlines A340 plane stopped Thursday for refueling in Vatry en route from Fujairah airport in the United Arab Emirates for Managua, Nicaragua, and was grounded by police based on an anonymous tip that it could be carrying human trafficking victims.

Prosecutors wouldn’t comment on whether the passengers’ ultimate destination could have been the U.S., which has seen a surge in Indians crossing the Mexico-U.S. border this year…

The Vatry airport was requisitioned by police for days. Local officials, medics and volunteers installed cots and ensured regular meals and showers for those held inside. Then it turned into a makeshift courtroom Sunday as judges, lawyers and interpreters filled the terminal to carry out emergency hearings to determine the next steps…

Legend Airlines lawyer Liliana Bakayoko said some passengers didn’t want to go to India because they had paid for a tourism trip to Nicaragua. The airline has denied any role in possible human trafficking.

The U.S. government has designated Nicaragua as one of several countries deemed as failing to meet minimum standards for eliminating human trafficking. Nicaragua has also been used as a migratory springboard for people fleeing poverty or conflict because of relaxed or visa-free entry requirements for some countries. Sometimes charter flights are used for the journey.

Tuesday Morning Open Thread:  The Week Between the Years

(Jeff Danziger via GoComics.com)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: The Week Between the YearsPost + Comments (127)

Late Night Open Thread: Last of the Xmas Content

by Anne Laurie|  December 26, 20231:27 am| 33 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Something Good

new ornament just dropped pic.twitter.com/gaE9rQkX02

— cats being weird little guys (@weirdlilguys) December 4, 2023

Alyona Alyona, KOLA, and Jerry Heil released a Christmas song and it’s great. Ukraine’s arts scene is so good. https://t.co/ylHyg7RK29.

— Jean-Michel Connard (@torriangray) December 23, 2023

The Thing should be considered a Christmas movie for portraying a bunch of people who can’t stand each other stuck in the same place in the cold.

— eight diagram pole dancer (@thamosdeaf) December 23, 2023

The perfect Christmas tree does exist. But it won’t be ready until 2036. https://t.co/q1m2JE5hna #washingtondc #dc #bhivelabs

— BHIVE DC Bee (@WashingtonNews9) December 22, 2023


Place your reservation now! ‘Perfect’ is subjective, of course; sometimes the imperfections of a particular tree in a particular year are part of the charm… Washington Post gift link, for the curious:

… Justin Whitehill, who leads the Christmas Tree Genetics Program, said the researchers’ goal is twofold: to breed Christmas trees so beautiful and hassle-free that they persuade faux-tree fanatics to convert to the real deal, and to help the growers who sustain a $2 billion industry.

“What we’re doing is using genetics to improve the Christmas trees’ traits to make the lives of consumers and growers better,” Whitehill said. “The focus is on three main traits: growth, needle retention and form. But we’re also working around sustainability and making trees more climate-resilient.”…

The Christmas tree undertaking began in the late 1990s, when those involved with the N.C. State program began identifying the best Fraser firs in North Carolina. With its superior needle retention, conical form and sturdy branches, the Appalachian species is already considered the cream of the crop when it comes to Christmas trees — in fact, the tree jollying up the White House this year is an 18½-foot Fraser fir from Fleetwood, N.C.

So how do you make the classic Christmas tree more perfect?

“We screened 30,000 wild trees originating from the highest peaks of the mountains in western North Carolina, then whittled it down to our best 25,” Whitehill said. That sample of 25 lost the fewest needles, showcased the densest foliage and had the fastest growth rate — trees that could be expected to lose just 1 percent of their needles after reaching a desirable height of six feet in about six to seven years.

To create the trees, the scientists used a technique called grafting, fusing together 1,000 roots from other trees with cuttings from the sample of 25 to ensure the elite Fraser fir genes are expressed at the top of the tree…

Just putting these side by side for no apparent reason. pic.twitter.com/EhYPbzbcpt

— Jean-Michel Connard (@torriangray) December 24, 2023

Cornbread loves Christmas pic.twitter.com/CjUUoVHylK

— John Carpenter's Christine (@chrissytine7) December 4, 2023

And speaking of the perfect tree… YMMV, but John Lewis at #3 below (approximately the 9:30min mark) has to be one of the weirder choices for a feel-good holiday advertisment…

Late Night Open Thread: Last of the Xmas ContentPost + Comments (33)

Ornament Inspection!

by WaterGirl|  December 25, 202311:10 pm| 21 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Willow Biden, the Official White House Ornament Inspector. pic.twitter.com/QHHbVIOhGj

— President Biden (@POTUS) December 24, 2023

OzarkHillbilly talked about beautiful blown glass ornaments in a thread yesterday – the ornaments at the link were so lovely!

Here’s one of my favorites of all my glass ornaments.

In case there is any interest in seeing a tree decorated almost entirely with blown glass ornaments, here is my tree in 2020.

If you watched both videos, that would be one complete spin around the tree.

Merry Christmas to all who celebrate!

Open thread!

Ornament Inspection!Post + Comments (21)

War for Ukraine Day 670: Christmas in Ukraine

by Adam L Silverman|  December 25, 20239:12 pm| 29 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A screen grab of NEIVANMADE's Christmas 2023 art. It shows Joseph and Mary standing over the baby Jesus in a crib/manger. All have Orthodox style halos. The sky behind them is a dark blue and there is a golden thatched roof over them. To the left of the top of the roof's center a star/comet is visible.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1739325794726379724

I’m going to start tonight by including the information that Dr. Luba shared with us in the comments last night. The first thing she shared was an answer to the question regarding why President Zelenskyy referenced the first star in the sky:

Many holidays begin on the eve or are celebrated on the eve–Kupalo, St. Andrews night, etc.  Xmas is no exception.

Folks are supposed to fast until the first star is seen; only then can Sviat Vechir (Holy Night) proceed, with its ritual dinner or pagan origin.

Dr. Luba then graced us with this much longer explanation in a subsequent comment:

About tonight, a few things I have written in my FB groups:

Most of our (Ukrainian) customs date back to antiquity, to the pagan era of our history. Although christian backstories have been created for some of our customs, truth be told, they predate the arrival of christianity to our land.

Sviat Vechir (now Xmas Eve) is one of those ancient rituals. It is a continuation of old pagan traditions which were adopted by the church when it couldn’t wipe them out. Kylymnyk notes that this night was not only the night when our dead ancestors came in from the cold to celebrate with us (they winter in the didukh, which is brought into the house this night), but also the night when the gods came to visit.

The didukh was brought into the house on Sviat Vechir; it was a sheaf formed of grain from the family’s fields, first, last, or best depending on local tradition. Ukrainians once believed the spirits of dead family members did not leave, but lived out in the fields and helped to grow the crops. In the winter they would come in, and live in the didukh. When the didukh was brought into the house, all of the family’s ancestors came with it.

Dazhboh came to see how people had used the gifts he gave them the last year, of good weather and fertility. Veles, the god who protected livestock, came to see how the livestock had been treated.

For Dazhboh, people wanted to show off their bountiful harvest; the food served that night should include a bit of everything the household/farm had produced that year: grains, vegetables, fruit, honey.

For Veles, the people wanted to show how well they had treated their animals. The animals themselves were given special foods that day, nicely groomed, and prayed for, so that when Veles questioned them, they would praise their master. And, of course, no meat or poultry were served that night, nor any animal products like milk or cheese. (Fish was OK because it was wild caught, and not farmed.)

Тhe number of dishes served varied throughout Ukraine; it could be 7, 12, 17, or some other number. Twelve was probably the most common, and they symbolized the 12 months of the year.

And bear in mind that the only two mandatory dishes were uzvar and kutia. Both are made from the simplest ingredients, which date back to, according to ethnographers, our hunter-gatherer days: grain, honey, poppy seeds, nuts and dried fruit.

An empty space was left at the table for the ancestors. Uzvar and kutia were left in the pokut, the corner with the family icons, for the ancestors to partake of. And other food would be left out, overnight, so they could enjoy it, too.

…….the meal would begin only after the first star was sighted. The meal always began with kutia, a mixture of grain (usually wheat), honey and poppyseeds.

Our ancestors believed that kutia was the food of the gods (uzvar was the drink of the gods). It is an ancient food–Khvedir Vovk, the Ukrainian ethnographer, believed it came to us from the neolithic era. Its component parts–grain (wheat or barley), honey and poppy seeds–are foods that were eaten by our ancestors at the dawn of history, when agriculture was first being established.

Kutia was prepared three times, all on “Eves”–Sviat Vechir (the eve of Rizdvo), the eve of the old New Year (January 13, Shchedryi vechir), and on the eve of Yordan (Vodokhreshchenia). They were known as Bahata kutia, Shchedra kutia, and Holodna kutia (rich, generous, and hungry kutia).

Kutia is one of the two “Mandatory” dishes for Sviat Vechir (uzvar being the other). A jar would be placed in the “corner” of the house where the icons were kept, and should remain there until the old New Year. On Sviat Vechir children often took servings of kutia to their godparents (and sometimes other relatives).

The ritual character of the dish is emphasized by the old custom, in which the head of the family approached the window, or went out into the courtyard with the kutia and, turning to the frost, invited him three times to come in to dinner with his family. When frost does join them, he is advised not to appear, do not do evil to the crops, etc.: “Frost, frost, come eat kutia with us, but if you do not come, do not come to the rye, wheat and all the pashnytsia.”

Kutia was served, usually first, and everyone shared. It was usually used to foretell a plentiful harvest and family happiness; a spoonful would be thrown at the ceiling–the more that stuck, the more bees and honey there would be. After dinner a portion was left on the table with everyone’s spoons stuck in it; this portion was for the souls of the deceased, and it was left overnight. If, in the morning, someone’s spoon was found turned upside down, that person was supposed to die in the next year.

The Russians, of course, decided to continue their attempts to punish Ukraine into surrender last night and today:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1739250888584347716

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1739172592026521989

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Get in touch with those who are in the Defense Forces now and thank them – address by the President of Ukraine

25 December 2023 – 19:55

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Once again, I extend my Christmas greetings to everyone! And right now, on this Christmas evening, it is important to speak about many of our people who are on duty, at combat posts, in battle, defending our state and people at any time of day or night, on holidays and ordinary days.

Yesterday, on Christmas Eve, our warriors shot down nearly 30 “Shahed” drones, several missiles and two more Russian military aircraft. All in one evening! In total, five “Su” aircraft were shot down in the week before Christmas. And this is really impressive! Well done to everyone delivering such results in the ranks of our Air Force, all our anti-aircraft gunners, warriors of mobile firing groups, and air defense units of the Ground Forces! Thank you! Every Russian pilot must make a clear choice whether to continue participating in this war. Our air defense will become increasingly powerful. Especially when we receive additional systems that have already been agreed upon, including F-16s.

Today, I want to thank everyone in the entire large team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine – everyone who is still, as always, eliminating the consequences of Russian shelling these days, evenings, and nights. Kherson, Donetsk, Kharkiv, our Sumy region, our Zaporizhzhia, our other regions. I would like to particularly mention the guys from Kherson region – Sergeant Oleh Pankratov and Master Sergeant Maksym Sedin. And from Donetsk region – Sergeant Oleksandr Pavlenko, Chief Master Sergeant Denys Shysholyk and civilian employee of the State Emergency Service Volodymyr Yatsenko. Next, Kharkiv region – Sergeant Roman Pyvovarov and Master Sergeant Pavlo Kryvulia. Sumy region – Sergeants Oleksandr Kozyr and Yevhenii Bondarenko, who are working in the border areas, displaying absolute selflessness. I am thankful to you guys and all your colleagues!

Similarly, I would like to express my gratitude today to the entire staff of the National Police of Ukraine – those working for the safety of people, in particular in the frontline areas. I would like to particularly mention Police Senior Lieutenants Ivan Zeleniak and Dmytro Teteria, serving in Kherson region, in the city of Beryslav. Also, Andriy Bulavin, a combat medic, working in Donetsk region. Zaporizhzhia region – Police Majors Andriy Melnyk and Vadym Aksionenko. I thank you and all those who serve our country and our society!

And, of course, today it is only right to thank every employee of the Ukrainian energy sector. All those who are at work right now. All those who have been working all year long to prevent blackouts and ensure that everywhere in Ukraine there is communication, electricity, heating, and all the things without which normal life is simply impossible. I thank you, our power engineers! Thank you for the bright Christmas!

And please, if you haven’t done so yet, get in touch with your loved ones or those you just know who are in the Defense Forces now and thank them. Strength gives Ukraine life. The strength of everyone who fights for Ukraine. The strength of all who work for Ukraine. The strength of our people. Let’s strengthen Ukraine together!

Glory to Ukraine!

For those of you marking Advent this season, here’s a bonus entry for your calendars:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1739305749921317151

Tatarigami has a new assessment. It’s a very long tweet, so I’m going to post the tweet, then copy and paste the entire narrative from it, then include some of his follow on Q&A.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1739299928424218624

Did Russia Suffer a Strategic Defeat? Global Concerns and Security Outlook

In the early days of the war, Russian armored columns, consisting of hundreds of tanks and APCs, broke into peaceful streets, leaving behind a trail of destruction and death. However, these columns often met the fate of being devastated and abandoned within days or even hours. The failure to achieve quick victories through skilled maneuvers led to high casualties and a lack of success in their initial strategic goals. As a result, Russian forces had to rethink their approach, focusing on encirclement and destruction through extensive artillery and aviation strikes.

What I just described wasn’t related to Ukraine but rather described events from the Battle of Grozny during the New Year’s Eve period of 1994-1995.
Even after Grozny, the capital of Chechnya came under Russian control, the war concluded in 1996 with the signing of the Khasavyurt Accord, granting de facto independence to the Chechen Republic. In three years, the re-armed and reorganized Russian army invaded Chechnya again in 1999. This time, their approach not only led to occupation but also resulted in the installation and promotion of a loyal warlord.

Fast forward two decades, despite the Chechen people gaining global recognition for their fierce resistance, and enduring the suffering of mass executions and torture, some of them, now called Kadyrovites, find themselves involved in actions in Ukraine reminiscent of past Russian aggression against them. Ukrainians from Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts, share a similar fate. In just eight years, new military units, composed of drafted Ukrainians, have emerged, ready to invade their neighbors, relatives, and former friends.

The recently occupied territories by the Russians, including parts of Zaporizhian and Kherson oblasts, will face a similar fate. Following the complete destruction of Mariupol, one of the initial large-scale constructions is a military boarding school for school-aged children – an effort to cultivate a new cadre reserve for the Russian military and law enforcement.

As an analyst, maintaining objectivity is important, and situations must be assessed regardless of whether the outcomes fit a particular narrative. Currently, a key question emerges about the possibility of Russia directly invading a NATO country, akin to an invasion of Ukraine. Given that the Russian army has been struggling to capture a Ukrainian town like Avdiivka for several months, it seems unlikely that they can currently manage to seize a city like Warsaw. Therefore, a direct invasion seems improbable. However, this doesn’t rule out the possibility of Russian tanks entering NATO territory. But how is it possible?

The alternative could involve a more subtle and pragmatic approach, albeit one that remains bloody. Russians recognize the improbability of defeating NATO in a direct confrontation, primarily due to the strength of the US. Nevertheless, in their strategic perspective, NATO is perceived as a grave threat to their expansionist and revisionist worldview, and they believe this threat must be eliminated.

Instead of relying on direct kinetic power, which could lead to a military confrontation with the US and potential nuclear escalation, Russia is likely to use a combination of approaches, including kinetic power through proxies. One potential scenario involves leveraging ethnic Russians in Latvia, constituting 25% of the population, like the 2014 Donbas strategy, framed as a civil war and separatist movement. This could create ambiguity around the applicability of NATO Article 5, possibly dissuading some countries from active participation and undermining NATO’s cohesion, principles, and sense of security.

A similar scenario could be implemented in Lithuania, despite the lower percentage of Russians in the country. Russia might utilize proxy forces, such as Wagner in Belarus, to provoke incidents and indirectly involve two NATO countries. Importantly, Wagner and other Russian proxy forces are not formally part of the Russian military, operating from outside Russian territory. This isn’t mere speculation; Russia employed similar tactics in 2014, and it mirrors successful operations by Iran, like the use of Houthis in Yemen to engage with US forces or Hezbollah in Lebanon to engage with Israel. The overarching goal persists – to assess NATO unity without a humiliating defeat in direct confrontation and nuclear exchange. If successful, it would stand as one of the most significant geostrategic achievements that Russia could attain.

These are not the only strategies at Putin’s disposal. Both Russia and Belarus are known to exploit immigrants at their borders as a destabilization factor, weaponizing illegal immigration against Europe. This also fuels the rise of far-right political parties, some openly sponsored by Moscow. Russia’s goal is not an immediate military defeat of Europe; rather, it aims to install leaders aligned with its interests, akin to Viktor Orban in Hungary, across multiple European countries. This strategy, combined with isolationist forces in the US, seeks to render Europe dysfunctional and impede its collective resistance against Russia.

Putin’s dual approach is simple yet effective. On one hand, he showcases the Ukrainian scenario marked by war, suffering, destruction, and death. On the other hand, he offers an “Orban” scenario promising improved oil and gas prices, avoidance of war, enrichment of elites, and populist support for the “anti-globalist” movement. This war has shown the unpleasant reality when despite large GDPs, European military production has languished due to post-Cold War policies. The unpreparedness of the West for a war of attrition is clear, a strategy integral to the Russian military doctrine.

Russians aim to draw technologically superior opponents into protracted conflicts, rendering it economically untenable and eventually forcing negotiations on Russia’s terms. A critical question arises: how many citizens of Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Italy, or Luxembourg are willing to endure hundreds of thousands of killed and crippled when the alternative involves reclaiming inexpensive Russian resources and benefiting from Russian elites who spend money in their countries? Unfortunately, the answer to this question may not be optimistic – Russians have sold the saw which Europe uses to cut the branch it’s sitting on in the past.

Ukraine currently serves as a deterrent to further Russian actions in Europe, as the bulk of its resources are concentrated in the ongoing war. Reflecting on the example of Chechnya is crucial; conquered and subdued nations don’t merely become economic vassals. They contribute people to the Russian army, where ethnic minorities often face high casualty rates. This pattern, akin to historical instances like Xerxes’ Persian army conscripting subjects to conquer Greeks, is not a historical fiction.

If Ukraine were to fall, it could follow the same trajectory—repressions, incorporation, and forced mobilization into the Russian army for future conflicts.

In the event of the United States adopting an isolationist stance, and abandoning allies or partners such as Ukraine, a nation deemed of vital national interest as outlined by President Biden, Russia will exploit this vulnerability. The prospect of using military force to subdue neighbors becomes more viable, especially when considering the potential to replenish human resources with newly occupied territories, as seen in Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk.

The potential fall of Ukraine can reassure Putin in pursuing his ambitions to exert influence over Europe. The threat of a Ukrainian-style scenario, coupled with offered economic incentives and the corruption of elites, could be instrumental in subduing smaller neighboring nations. This not only poses a significant risk to the stability of European countries but also has the potential to seriously impact the economic situation in the United States.

Halting Putin’s actions in Ukraine is essential to prevent the described scenarios. Russia’s military defeat would act as a deterrent to further aggressive plans.

Only continuous supplement of military aid to Ukraine will ensure victory. Without such support, we might find ourselves in a multi-polar world driven by populist rhetoric in revisionist states, just exactly like a century ago.

Merry Christmas

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1739301837621092477

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1739388799614923248

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1739394070521208982

https://twitter.com/kallemets/status/1739404566741872710

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1739412494349725805

Marinka:

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1739340832744886473

 

Avdiivka:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1739300157693263942

Russian occupied Crimea:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1739464688692232703

“And the fleet in Russia is getting smaller and smaller!
This time, the large landing ship “Novocherkask” is following the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation – the cruiser “Moskva”.

🤝 Thanks to the Air Force pilots ✈️ and everyone involved for the filigree work!

Put on your pants and leave our Crimea before it’s too late!” – Commander of the Air Force of Ukraine

https://t.me/MykolaOleshchuk/172

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1739448352020873541

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1739450468441461090

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1739452112600289607

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1739454754713972819

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1739460184827691313

Kyiv:

Koliada, traditional Christmas song, echoed through Kyiv Central today. Ukrainians celebrate and thank our defenders who make this possible pic.twitter.com/epXOLKyxpc

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 25, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Cartoons and reality: how to tell children about cluster munitions to teach but not to approach them? This is about the new episode “Patron The Dog”. Oh, by the way, Kraken's real voice is in the scene in the car😋
Check it here: https://t.co/0Ia6vdFXJu pic.twitter.com/qp0KPs6oem

— Patron (@PatronDsns) December 25, 2023

A very merry Christmas to all of you still celebrating.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 670: Christmas in UkrainePost + Comments (29)

Another Xmas Movie Open Thread: Tales from the Muppet Xmas Carol Archives

by Anne Laurie|  December 25, 20238:58 pm| 26 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Movies, Open Threads

Auto Draft 90

From GQ, in 2016:

The best thing about Michael Caine is his laugh, which is a warm, loud “heh heh heh.” The second-best thing about Michael Caine is The Muppet Christmas Carol, the greatest puppet-based holiday film of all time. Caine sings. Caine does a restrained jig. Caine wears an old-timey dressing gown… Michael Caine loves it just as much as you do…

Michael Caine: To start, my daughter, who is the mother of my grandchildren, was then seven, and she had never seen me in a movie. I had never made a movie that a 7-year-old can see. And so a man mentioned the Muppets and I said, “That’s it! I’ll do that!” And it’s A Christmas Carol, it’s a fabulous tale! You’ll be old Scrooge, it’ll be marvelous! And it was absolutely perfect at that time for what I wanted. I could make it, and my daughter could see it. That’s why I did it. And it was lovely…

When you’re talking to Kermit, where do you look? Do you look him in the eye?

Yes. You look him straight in the eye. It’s like talking to a real actor. And the guy is just down below, buried in the floor. And it’s very funny when you see [the puppeteers] rehearsing, because they’re in the corner, and they haven’t got the dolls on their arms, and they’re just talking to each other with their hands. It’s very funny. One of the best things about it is that puppeteers, compared to actors, are much nicer, gentler, kinder people. They’re really the loveliest of people. I’d never worked with a cast where every single person was lovely. You always get a couple of actors who think too much of themselves. But these were all kind, gentle, loving people and I had the best time…

 
Xmas Content - STOCKPILE
NYMag‘s culture blog Vulture, in 2017:

“You know you’re an alcoholic when you misplace a decade,” says songwriter Paul Williams. “And, essentially, the ’80s were gone for me.”…

Two months after Williams got sober, Jim Henson died.

“We already knew that Jim wanted the Muppets to live beyond him, because that’s why he was selling to Disney,” says Dave Goelz, a veteran Muppeteer best known as the Great Gonzo. “The question for us was: Were we up to it? Did we want to try it? And we all felt that it was our life’s work — it wasn’t just a job — so we decided to try.”

Rather than making yet another movie about the backstage antics of this zany menagerie, the team decided to cast the Muppets in roles from a classic book: Charles Dickens’s A Christmas Carol. Jerry Juhl, head writer on The Muppet Show, wrote a screenplay that surrounded Dickens’s own prose and a human Ebenezer Scrooge — played by Michael Caine — with Kermit as Bob Cratchit, Miss Piggy as Mrs. Cratchit, and Gonzo as the narrating Dickens himself. The result was a charmingly faithful adaptation of the famous redemption story, with a never-better Caine playing Scrooge utterly straight, treating his Muppet co-stars as if they were, as he said at the time, “the Royal Shakespeare Company.”…

show full post on front page

“When I got sober, the career I thought I had was pretty much gone,” says Williams. “I just fell in love with recovery, I felt like that’s all I wanted to do, and I didn’t know if I was ever going to write music again. And then I was asked to write the songs for The Muppet Christmas Carol. Every now and then, the universe will line up to do something at the right time in your life.”

“I was longing to live life in a totally new way, one day at a time, trusting that what I needed was within me to get things done. And I’m sitting down to write these songs, and I’m writing about Scrooge: a man who’s learning to live life in a whole new way, who’s having a spiritual awakening [laughs]. It’s like, okay now, this is my inventory of dealing with where I am in my own life.”…

“I put my name on the songs because I sit down and I write them,” says Williams. “But the fact is that my claim to the material, my claim to the end product is diluted by my gratefulness for whatever power is a part of the process. Muppet Christmas Carol became a bridge back to songwriting. The gap that I had to leap, I think, in many ways, was my own ego — that these are my ideas and I’m writing them, and I began to see that, you know what? You have unseen collaborators who show up again and again and again, and as long as I’m willing to share that information and stay grateful for their participation, hopefully they’ll keep showing up.”

“If there is an unnamed collaborator on the work that I did on The Muppet Christmas Carol,” he added, “I assume it would have to be Jim Henson.”

Another Xmas Movie Open Thread: Tales from the <em>Muppet Xmas Carol</em> ArchivesPost + Comments (26)

  • « Go to Previous Page
  • Page 1
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Page 636
  • Page 637
  • Page 638
  • Page 639
  • Page 640
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Page 5294
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

On The Road - UncleEbeneezer - Eastern Sierra Fall Foliage 2024- McGee Creek, CA (Part 7/8) 3
Image by UncleEbeneezer (11/11/25)

We did it!

Recent Comments

  • tobie on Together We Can Be a Force for Good (Nov 11, 2025 @ 8:03pm)
  • WaterGirl on Together We Can Be a Force for Good (Nov 11, 2025 @ 8:03pm)
  • David_C on Together We Can Be a Force for Good (Nov 11, 2025 @ 8:01pm)
  • Eyeroller on Together We Can Be a Force for Good (Nov 11, 2025 @ 8:01pm)
  • David_C on Together We Can Be a Force for Good (Nov 11, 2025 @ 7:58pm)

Balloon Juice Posts

View by Topic
View by Author
View by Month & Year
View by Past Author

Featuring

Medium Cool
Artists in Our Midst
Authors in Our Midst
On Artificial Intelligence (7-part series)

🎈Keep Balloon Juice Ad Free

Become a Balloon Juice Patreon
Donate with Venmo, Zelle or PayPal

Calling All Jackals

Site Feedback
Nominate a Rotating Tag
Submit Photos to On the Road
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Links)
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Posts)
Fix Nyms with Apostrophes

Balloon Juice Mailing List Signup

Social Media

Balloon Juice
WaterGirl
TaMara
John Cole
DougJ (aka NYT Pitchbot)
Betty Cracker
Tom Levenson
David Anderson
Major Major Major Major
DougJ NYT Pitchbot
mistermix
Rose Judson (podcast)

We did it!

Site Footer

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Comment Policy
  • Our Authors
  • Blogroll
  • Our Artists
  • Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2025 Dev Balloon Juice · All Rights Reserved · Powered by BizBudding Inc