May every Russian pilot be well aware of our response to every Russian killer – address by the President of Ukraine

22 December 2023 – 19:59

Wishing good health, dear Ukrainians!

An important day.

Grateful to our soldiers who destroyed three Russian Sukhoi aircraft at once. In the South – in our Kherson region. It’s the gain of our Air Force and the direct action of the Odesa Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade. Thank you, guys! And may every Russian pilot be well aware of our response to every Russian killer – none of them will go unpunished.

The second for today.

I greeted two of our very significant professional communities today on their professional days – Ukrainian energy workers and Ukrainian diplomats. There are special days in the calendar: December 22 is the Power Engineer’s Day and the Diplomatic Service Day of Ukraine.

In the morning, I honored power engineers with state awards – individuals whose efforts enable Ukraine to live normally, with light and heating. We are currently experiencing the second winter of full-scale war, significantly different from the first. It is the result of the tremendous effort of many teams, companies, officials, and regional authorities. I am grateful to everyone working for our energy sector.

Today, I also met with representatives of our diplomatic community – those within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs system and those outside the system involved in our country’s foreign policy. This year was ambitious for Ukraine, and we managed to implement most of our ambitions in relations with our partners. For the next year, there are clear goals and well-defined KPIs for all employees in Ukraine’s diplomatic sphere.

I spoke today with Mark Rutte, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. The Netherlands is preparing to send the first F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. From political decisions regarding the provision of aircraft, we have moved on to training pilots and engineers, and now we are implementing the technical part – the actual delivery of F-16 jets. I am grateful to the Netherlands and all our other partners who support us in this endeavor.

Certainly, we discussed the current political issues with Mark, including the approval of a new support package for Ukraine in the European Union – EUR 50 billion, a necessary and long-term package. This is our resilience. Additionally, we managed to discuss the preparation for a new Peace Formula meeting.

Today, I also met with the recently appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Sikorski. We are refreshing our relations. We discussed how we can overcome existing concerns. Of course, I expressed gratitude to Poland for supporting our state in the defense sector. We have significant opportunities for further collaboration – work that will bolster both our nations. This includes, in particular, joint defense production. Many things need to be resolved. I am confident we can do it.

Another thing. I held a meeting with the Minister of Defense and the team. We are preparing solutions to the issues that our units, combat brigades are facing. Matters of motivation, terms of service determination, and recruitment. The defense forces are sustained by people. And people are the spirit and the weapon. We must ensure both components. Thanks to everyone who is assisting!

Thanks to everyone who is fighting and working for the interests of Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also addressed Ukrainian diplomats and foreign service officers at today’s award’s ceremony honoring their work. Here’s the video of his remarks:

For those of you marking Advent on your calendars this season:

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 22

Christmas is just around the corner, so today we are happy to present to you the Flakpanzer Gepard, also known as Cheetah, a German-made self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery system.

Gepards play an important role in defending our skies… pic.twitter.com/9c7CeYrGOK

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 22, 2023

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 22

Christmas is just around the corner, so today we are happy to present to you the Flakpanzer Gepard, also known as Cheetah, a German-made self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery system.

Gepards play an important role in defending our skies against russian terrorist attacks. Once again, we would like to say «Vielen Dank» to our German friends at @BMVg_Bundeswehrfor their steadfast support.

Wishing you all a happy Friday!

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

The price:

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1738174501878145120

This is welcome news!

The first eighteen F-16 jets from the Netherlands are being prepared for delivery to Ukraine!

Thank you, @Defensie, for such an important decision!
That’s the great news for every Ukrainian.https://t.co/XITj15h24n

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 22, 2023

And this:

Germany updated the list of military assistance provided to Ukraine:

• ammunition for LEOPARD 2 A6;
• 3 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns GEPARD;
• 30240 rounds ammunitions for self-propelled anti-aircraft guns GEPARD;
• 2500 155 mm shells;
• 2 mine clearing tanks WISENT 1;… pic.twitter.com/Ve8fWXsux1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 22, 2023

Germany updated the list of military assistance provided to Ukraine:

• ammunition for LEOPARD 2 A6;
• 3 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns GEPARD;
• 30240 rounds ammunitions for self-propelled anti-aircraft guns GEPARD;
• 2500 155 mm shells;
• 2 mine clearing tanks WISENT 1;
• 10 reconnaissance drones VECTOR;
• 2 border protection vehicles;
• 2 AMPS self-protection systems for helicopters;
• 8 trucks Zetros;
• 2 truck tractor trains 8×8 HX81 and 5 semi-trailers;
• 8 vehicles (trucks, minibuses, all-terrain vehicles);
• 25536 40-mm shells for automatic grenade launchers;
• medical materials
https://bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992

This would be really welcome news:

The White House released a statement that it will receive Patriot missiles from Japan, but it is an open secret that the USA in return will send the same amount of Patriot missile to Ukraine, making Japan basically the origin for the delivery. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan… pic.twitter.com/PCLjgwuQfH

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 22, 2023

 

The White House released a statement that it will receive Patriot missiles from Japan, but it is an open secret that the USA in return will send the same amount of Patriot missile to Ukraine, making Japan basically the origin for the delivery. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan is producing Patriot missiles in license.

There are now discussions that a similar agreement will be made for 155mm artillery shells. Japan produces that artillery shells in license for BAE and is willing to supply UK so that UK in return can supply Ukraine.

Japan’s current strict laws to not supply weapons into areas of war require this indirect transfer.

Source (German): https://dw.com/de/japan-waffenexporte-sollen-der-ukraine-dienen/a-67799960…

#Japan #Ukraine #USA #Patriot

As is this:

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast via Ukrainian air defense in Odesa Oblast:

+3 russian military jets destroyed🔥

The Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mykola Oleshchuk, confirmed that Ukrainian air defenders shot down three SU-34 fighter-bombers in the south direction.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 22, 2023

Today, in the Southern direction – minus three Russian Su-34 fighter bombers! ✈️✈️✈️ pic.twitter.com/5F8ZmCOtgw

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) December 22, 2023

Zelensky says in his evening address that the troops of the Anti-Aircraft Artillery Brigade of Odesa were the ones who downed the three Russian jets this morning over southern Kherson region. https://t.co/bUiQgFQUNE

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 22, 2023

In reality, MIM-104 PATRIOTs in Ukrainian hands are demonstrating the greatest results in the system’s entire operational history, and this is happening in its most challenging battleground to date.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 22, 2023

The information regarding the 3 destroyed Russian Su-34 is still fluid and we still need some more solid facts, but the evidence already at hand and the fuming in Pro-Russian social networks we can be sure that it is basically genuine.

Everything points to an event similar to… pic.twitter.com/orG7jRA8jY

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 22, 2023

The information regarding the 3 destroyed Russian Su-34 is still fluid and we still need some more solid facts, but the evidence already at hand and the fuming in Pro-Russian social networks we can be sure that it is basically genuine.

Everything points to an event similar to the so-called “Bryansk Massacre” in May 2023, where in a matter of a few minutes 2 fighter planes and 3 choppers of the Russian air force were blown out of the skies of Bryansk, Russia. The Ukrainian Air Force later confirmed that it was responsible and that a MIM-104 Patriot air defence system was used, finally proving all speculations.

The events today in the south of Ukraine are similar but in some aspects even more impressive. It required extensive coordination and planning. The three Russian Su-34 were likely part of an air group attacking the Ukrainian detachment in Krynky, Kherson. Russians have been using improved FAB-500 missiles which they fired more than 50km from the impact points and out of range of short and medium-ranged air defense assets of the Ukrainian army. Russians felt basically safe to deploy their standoff weapons.

This has dramatically changed. It is highly likely that Ukraine deployed the latest MIM-104 Patriot battery in the south, likely the latest Patriot battery from Germany. The PAC-2 variant has a range of at least 160 km (probably more). This considerably extended the zone in which the Ukrainian air defense was able to destroy enemy planes. I marked it in orange on my map but it is a relatively conservative estimation and considers that the battery is not deployed too close to the current frontline. You can easily extend that area and strike even far deeper.

I speculate that once the 3 Russian fighter planes were in the killzone, the Patriot system turned on, targeted the enemy planes and then fired its missiles. This is common practise for all missile-based air defense assets. The missiles travel with the speed of Mach 4 and reached their targets within 1-2 mins which is virtually impossible for the Russian planes to counter or to lose altitude. Yet, the level of planning and coordination is extremely difficult. Even with a excellent weapon system such as MIM-104 Patriot system, you cannot take this for granted. Even small errors could cause failure in this undertaking or even threaten the own survival of the air defense system. The window of success is short and dangerous. But just like in Bryansk they succeeded. The Ukrainian air defense system once again showed us how capable they are. A tribute to their never-ending ingenuity.

For the Russian war effort this is extremely bad news. The Russian swarms of drones and missiles in this winter are getting effectively repelled so far. Ukraine finally allows to use its best air defense system even for offensive operations. Krynky is only an example but a good one. Despite the Ukrainian forces only having around 300-500 men in Krynky and Russians on the other side around 7 brigades, which should actually be enough to repel the small Ukrainian detachment in Krynky alone, it was mainly the Russian air force which countered the small Ukrainian unit. The Russian ground forces were pummeled by artillery and drones. It was only the Russian planes which weren’t countered, yet. This has obviously changed and it will be another painful thorn in Russia’s side. This also comes only after weeks when the Russian Su-24M was shot down over the Black Sea near Snake Island. The message is clear: the south is now officially an hot area for the Russian air force.

Even though we shouldn’t get too much carried away around these events, it nevertheless shows us that even with a limited extension of supplies Ukrainian forces can inflict decisive losses on the Russian war machinery. The is also no new development. Ukrainians always overperformed with that little they got and with the right weaponry and especially with the right amount they can finish the job. The Russian “strategy” is purely based on the West to stop delivering supplies. They have no plan B, no alternative, and when we start raising the stakes and go seriously in with our supplies and industry, then Ukraine will liberate all the Ukrainian territory and finish the war which Russia started.

#Ukraine

However, the Ukrainians, as well as the rest of us, are at a critical juncture.

Any Western backtracking will only encourage Putin to double down on his assault on #Ukraine. He will not negotiate. This is why we must support Ukraine full-heartedly to win the upper hand on the battlefield. Read my argument @ForeignAffairs: https://t.co/XxZigJTLzV

— Norbert Röttgen (@n_roettgen) December 22, 2023

From Foreign Affairs: (emphasis mine)

With Ukrainian forces stalled on the battlefield, and major aid packages for Kyiv blocked by Hungary in the EU and by Republican policymakers in the United States, the Western alliance in support of Ukraine appears increasingly weak and divided. Several scholars and policymakers have assessed this scenario—and reached the conclusion that a pivot to a defensive strategy could eventually bring Putin to the negotiating table. According to that line of thought, a new approach focused on securing territories that Ukraine already controls would consolidate Western support and eventually demonstrate to Russia that it cannot outlast Ukraine’s war effort. But that analysis reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the Russian president and how he thinks. Any Western backtracking will only encourage Putin to double down on his assault on Ukraine. As long as he believes that military success is possible, Putin will refuse to negotiate—and he will keep fighting. 

With that reality in mind, Western policymakers must revise their approach to supporting the Ukrainian war effort. Ukraine’s partners should move from a halfhearted to a full-throated offensive strategy that provides the embattled country with all the weapons necessary to gain the upper hand and push back Russian forces. Europe, in particular, should do more. This includes delivering the maximum possible quantities of materiel from the EU’s existing stockpiles of relevant weapons systems, boosting military production, and expanding each country’s production capabilities. Specifically, Europe can and should give far more middle- and long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv. Doing so would allow Ukraine to target Russian infrastructure in the occupied territories while shielding its soldiers from the hazards of the frontlines. Europe must also speed up and extend the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, which would enable the country to establish air superiority. Coupled with the dispatch of additional air defense systems, such as Patriot and IRIS-T missiles, such aid would allow Ukraine to effectively pressure Russian forces and win the upper hand on the battlefield.

Only then, with Russia on the back foot, will negotiations become possible. Only then will Western policymakers be able to achieve the real criteria for a victory: ensuring that Putin’s war of aggression does not pay off for Russia and that Europe does not continue to be a theater of war. Should the West capitulate to fatigue and infighting, however, it will simply play into Putin’s hands. A Russian triumph would set the stage for further war across the continent, bringing turmoil ever closer to NATO territory. 

The current situation on the battlefield is indeed alarming for Ukraine and its partners. Russian forces have dug in behind miles of minefields and trenches, making it incredibly difficult and costly for Ukrainian soldiers to gain territory. A stalemate has set in; the conflict, now approaching its third year, has already exacted hundreds of thousands of military and civilian casualties and is becoming a brutal war of attrition. But those making the case for negotiations with Moscow fail to mention the context in which this worsening situation arose. Kyiv has not achieved major battlefield gains because its partners in the United States and Europe have not provided the necessary weapons to gain air control and effectively penetrate Russian positions and infrastructure in the occupied territories and Crimea. 

As the war has dragged on, Russia has succeeded in firing up its military industrial complex and adjusting to a wartime economy. Its material capabilities have now surpassed those of Ukraine, which continues to depend on arms supplies from the West. Although Ukraine’s partners have retained stockpiles of certain precision weapons, including Taurus cruise missiles, they are running out of other key materiel—specifically ammunition. Despite early warnings that ammunition would eventually run low, the European Union has failed to increase its production capabilities, owing to a lack of planning and foresight. At the current rate, the bloc will be unable to fulfill its commitment to provide one million shells and missiles to Ukraine by March 2024.And this lag is having consequences on the ground; whereas Russia uses between 25,000 and 30,000 shells a day, Ukraine fires a meager 7,000 shells a day. Facing critical shortages, Ukrainian troops have been forced to ration their use of ammunition. No NATO government would ever put its military in such a position of having to fight a war without sufficient ammunition, precision weapons, and air support.

Part of the problem is that many European leaders have failed to clearly state an objective for aid to Ukraine, and have instead pursued a vague and often halfhearted strategy of support. Their incremental approach to assistance hasn’t equipped Kyiv to achieve a major breakthrough during Ukraine’s summer offensive. Policymakers within the German government and the Biden administration, in particular, continue to view the delivery of every weapons system through the lens of how Russia will respond, with the fear of escalation constraining what kind of aid Ukraine receives. The reality is that Russia has already fully escalated in terms of its conventional military capabilities and is unlikely to take the nuclear route for two reasons: first, out of fear of U.S. retaliation; and second, given the opposition of China, Russia’s indispensable ally, to nuclear escalation, a clear redline for Beijing. 

Putin must not be allowed to imagine that there is any merit to his heinous invasion; if he triumphs, wars of aggression in Europe may well become more common. From the perspective of Kyiv and its partners, this means that at a minimum Ukraine’s prewar boundaries must be reinstated. Kyiv is not only fighting to regain its territory but also defending the fundamental right of self-determination of states, as well as the largely peaceful order that has prevailed in Europe since the end of World War II. It is a goal that liberal democracies in the West and around the world should be united in supporting—particularly throughout Europe, where war has returned to the continent. 

Given Putin’s track record, there is no reason to believe that a defensive approach by Ukraine and its partners would incentivize Russia to move toward a cease-fire, as some, such as Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan, have suggested. Quite the contrary: Putin has made it clear that he does not want to negotiate. He wants to win this war, which has become a matter of his political and personal survival.The war has come at a huge cost for Russia, and Putin must have something to show for it. To assume that he might seize the opportunity to stanch the bloodletting is wishful thinking, and has nothing to do with the Putin who has bombed Ukrainian civilians, helped the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad launch a horrendous war against his own people, and overseen a brutal occupation of Chechnya in the early 2000s. Unsurprisingly, his price for even opening negotiations with Kyiv is essentially a total Ukrainian surrender. And in return, he promises nothing. 

Rolling back support for Ukraine would diminish rather than increase Russia’s appetite for negotiations. Putin would gain the upper hand and have no reason to engage in dialogue if he senses the possibility of a military victory. Russia’s expanded military-industrial complex can sustain a years-long war effort; Europe, on the other hand, has not increased its military output and will soon run out of the vital military systems that Ukraine so desperately needs. Knowing this, Putin just needs to wait. Time is on his side. 

The lack of spine shown here by the United States and the EU could have important consequences for the rest of the world. If the West backed down in the face of Putin’s advances, or revealed that it is not capable of substantially ramping up support for Ukraine, such a failure would signal weakness to China and other revisionist powers such as Iran. It would also send a disastrous message to other key allies such as the Philippines and Taiwan, which rely on U.S. military support for their safety and territorial integrity. Shifting to a dedicated offensive strategy and helping Ukraine succeed against Russia would help deter China in the Indo-Pacific and reassure U.S. and EU allies. Every Republican arguing that the United States must focus on China and leave Europe to the Europeans should keep in mind that allowing Russia to triumph in Ukraine would only encourage the worst, most aggressive instincts in Beijing. 

But just as the United States must not waver in its support for Ukraine, Europe must do more to step up and provide for its own defense—especially given the prospect of the return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office. In the event that Trump is reelected, Europeans must be able to sustain the Ukrainian war effort on their own. Europeans cannot escape the geographyof our continent; we are not separated by a vast ocean from the war. Thus, we do not have a choice but to ensure a Ukrainian victory. It is our collective peaceful European order that is under attack by Russia. Although single-handedly supporting Ukraine would be considerably more difficult, it is not impossible. Germany’s GDP alone is almost twice as big as Russia’s; the EU’s as a whole is seven times larger.

There is much, much more at the link.

The question for the US and our EU and NATO allies is whether we will rise to meet this moment or whether we will abandon another ally when the going got tough. Putin thinks he knows the answer to that question and his entire strategy since he failed to take Kyiv and capture or kill Ukraine’s leadership and install quislings who were supposed to surrender to him, is predicated on his assumption that the US, the EU, and NATO will eventually stop providing Ukraine with what it needs to win. Right now what is, or rather is not, going on in DC, Brussels, Berlin, and other EU member states’ capitols only encourages him.

Vuhledar:

Jazz concerts in Vuhledar are very spectacular.
And the detonation of russian anti-tank mines stockpile supplement the unforgettable atmosphere.

📹: 72nd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/sDnHG8Mx3g

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 22, 2023

Abrykoskivka, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

/2. Near Abrykosivka, Kherson region. 30km from the front.
46.480268,33.089344https://t.co/1KMLKh2dcs pic.twitter.com/Pr6ZHGJiCw

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 22, 2023

Novomikhailivka, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

 

Yesterday morning, another assault on the farm was repulsed in the area of Novomikhailivka village. Russians have been trying to assault this farm and a cemetery every day for months now to gain a foothold for the assault of the village itself. Below: drone follows a Russian… pic.twitter.com/5gxs36Xj9k

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) December 22, 2023

Yesterday morning, another assault on the farm was repulsed in the area of Novomikhailivka village. Russians have been trying to assault this farm and a cemetery every day for months now to gain a foothold for the assault of the village itself. Below: drone follows a Russian vehicle trying to escape.

To say Russians are having it easy would be wrong. They're facing extreme losses. As a Ukrainian soldier tells me, there are no more Storm-Z units in this direction – they ran out. It is the regular army assaulting now, and they’re replenished weekly. Photo: the farm under… pic.twitter.com/bDKXdxQKgw

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) December 22, 2023

To say Russians are having it easy would be wrong. They’re facing extreme losses. As a Ukrainian soldier tells me, there are no more Storm-Z units in this direction – they ran out. It is the regular army assaulting now, and they’re replenished weekly. Photo: the farm under assault.

 

Yet, symbolically, the Cross still stands on the ruins of this obliterated church in the village. pic.twitter.com/7EB4G3sXJV

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) December 22, 2023

Near Novomykhailivka, the 79th is working 🔥 pic.twitter.com/4c1tBHoTZh

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 22, 2023

For you armor aficionados. Not quite sure where in Ukraine this is:

russia used to scare the whole world with their tanks. But it's not so easy to frighten Ukrainian warriors.

In close combat, 🇺🇦 soldiers repulsed the russian attack and destroyed two tanks.

📹: 59th Motorized Brigade pic.twitter.com/Wu1kl8p4O8

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 22, 2023

Last night NobodySpecial asked:

As an aside, is there not an end around with the President, well, for lack of a better term, discounting the price of surplus we’re mothballing and selling it to Ukraine for a dollar? Or other such accounting shenanigans?

Yes and no. For instance, what the Japanese are doing is a work around. As was the case with the 155mm ammunition the ROK sent back to us. However, if you’re asking for a one weird executive action trick that President Biden could do, the answer is not really. Without money appropriated to replenish our own stockpiles, drawing down our surplus is problematic. Moreover, without congressional approval of the military sales, even discounting our surplus won’t make any difference because Congress has to pass legislation to authorize the military sales. Finally, this is not something President Biden would do. He is a very compassionate, empathetic, decent person, but he does not color outside the lines. Everything he has done since becoming president and almost everything that everyone he has appointed to senior positions have all focused on demonstrating normative executive branch actions. Basically, two things are going on here. The first is to show everyone that the rules, norms, traditions, etc that existed prior to Trump still exist and that Biden and his people are going to act within them. The second is that if they do this then they can teach Republicans and conservatives that this is appropriate behavior in elected and appointed office. Unfortunately, those rules, norms, traditions, etc ceased to exist the minute Trump or McConnell or McCarthy or whomever broke them. And this is not how social learning works. The only thing that will change the behavior of GOP elected and appointed officials and of those both leading and in the conservative movement that is the base of the party are negative rewards. As long as Trump, McConnell, Johnson, Greene, Gaetz, Fox News, etc continue to receive positive rewards – what they’re doing works, they get elected or reelected, they make money and get donations – they will not change their behavior.

Robert del Oso asked:

A question regarding the plausibility of the following scenario: would there be any punitive repercussions from fellow member states of NATO if the Poles and the Baltic countries were to form an alliance directly with Ukraine? I’ve done a bit of clueless “research” but am self aware enough to know that I’m out of my depth here.

Yes, these states can all form alliances with each other and Ukraine. Many of us expect that there will, at some point, be a security cooperation alliances between Ukraine, many or all of the Baltic states. Poland, Finland, Romania, and Moldova would either be part of this or have their own individual agreements with Ukraine. I expect there’s a lot of pressure from places like Berlin, Paris, and DC to not have this happen until the war is over because Scholz, Macron, and Biden and his team are exceedingly worried that NATO could get physically drawn into the conflict. I expect there is a lot of pressure to ensure that any alliance between Ukraine and one or more NATO member states while Ukraine is still fighting off Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, where that NATO member state comes to Ukraine’s aid, would not lead to an invocation of Article V.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets, so here’s a new(ish) pic from Patron’s official Instagram:

 

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Christmas will be on December 25, like all normal people, so will Santa come? Or will we just have St. Nicholas and that’s it? If Santa does come, then we should warn the air defense forces and tell Santa to mark his sleigh with yellow and blue colors. Because he’s all dressed in red, they’ll take him for a communist…

I cannot argue with that logic!

Open thread!