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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

We are learning that “working class” means “white” for way too many people.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

This country desperately needs a functioning fourth estate.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

I really should read my own blog.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

Celebrate the fucking wins.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

The Pestivus Miracle: A Christmas Rerun

by Betty Cracker|  December 22, 20233:09 pm| 34 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

NOTE: The following is a rerun of a post I first published on this site 10 YEARS AGO. (Good gourd, I can’t believe it’s been that long! I am now questioning all of my life choices!) This story happened a long time ago not far from where I sit right now. Open thread!

***

I grew up in a small coastal town in Florida. Every year there was an annual holiday parade featuring an honor guard, Future Farmers of America, the school marching band, floats sponsored by local merchants and Santa and his elves on the town fire truck.

One year, my younger sister and I got to be in the parade. We were about five and six at the time, so when we were told that we were actually going to be on a float in the parade instead of mere spectators, it was the most exciting thing that had ever happened to us.

Even when our mom told us we would be riding on the Florida Pest Control float (a display sponsored by the exterminator business where our grandfather worked at the time) and costumed as vermin, it didn’t dampen our enthusiasm. At least, not until we saw our costumes, which our mom spent days sewing for us. I was to dress as a rat, and that was okay with me:

Pestivus-2

However, my sister had to be a cockroach, and she was NOT happy about that, even though our mom had cleverly used fishing line to make the costume’s fake roachy arms move whenever my sister moved her real arms:

pestivus-1

show full post on front page

And in truth, my sister did have a legitimate complaint, since, in an attempt to get the proportions right, our mom had made a roach costume that tightly restricted the wearer’s movements. Most of my sister’s real legs were encased in the padded felt roach carapace, with just her shins and feet sticking out of a fairly small opening at the bottom:

Pestivus-3

This design forced her to take baby steps in the costume. After trying it on, she asked why she couldn’t be the rat and I couldn’t be the roach. But mom pointed out that as the eldest, I was the tallest, and it wouldn’t be logical for a roach to be taller than a rat, not even in Florida.

When the evening of the parade finally arrived, we went down to the beginning of the route to meet up with the Florida Pest Control float crew. The float was a livestock trailer attached to a pest control truck. Someone had fashioned giant ants out of red Styrofoam balls and pipe-cleaners and wired them randomly over the float’s exterior.

On the float, there was a bin filled with candy as well as a box of flyswatters emblazoned with the Florida Pest Control logo. We were to throw handfuls of candy to parade goers (I guess it never occurred to anyone that people might be reluctant to accept candy from vermin). We were also instructed to “gently toss” flyswatters into the crowd. My sister was still seething about the roach costume as our father hoisted us onto the float.

A more empathetic sibling might have offered comfort, but I threatened to beat the shit out of my sister if she didn’t stop whining. Thus, we both began the parade in a foul mood, expressing our ire by hurling candy with great force at other children and attempting to hit as many people in the face with the flyswatters as we could:

Pestivus-4a

You could say the crowd wasn’t on our side. But then the Florida Pest Control float came to an abrupt halt, possibly to avoid bumping into the float in front of it. Since I had unrestricted use of my legs, I was able to maintain my balance. But my sister’s costume tripped her when the truck lurched, and she fell against the railing of the float, clinging to it and wailing piteously.

At that moment, I happened to have a flyswatter raised high over my head, intent on hurling it full-force at my Sunday school teacher, whom I’d spotted in the crowd. But then I noticed my roach-sister splayed on the railing in front of me, emitting annoying howls. I began swatting her padded carapace, which didn’t actually hurt her, but was still fun. The crowd went wild:

Pestivus-4b

The end.

The Pestivus Miracle: A Christmas RerunPost + Comments (34)

Tale of the Tape(s)

by Betty Cracker|  December 22, 202311:57 am| 161 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, LGBTQ Rights Are Human Rights, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, Republican Venality

Last time we checked in on disgraced Florida GOP power throuple Christian and Bridget Ziegler, he was still refusing to resign as chairman of the FL GOP, and she was resisting calls to resign her seat on the Sarasota County School Board. Last weekend, the FL GOP executive board voted to strip Christian of his power and reduce his $120,000 salary to $1. But he remains chairman, and she’s still on the school board and a paid DeSantis crony-member of the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District board.

There’s a new development. The Sarasota cops who are investigating a rape accusation against Christian Ziegler unearthed a second sex tape. The new video purportedly shows Bridget Ziegler “engaged in sexual relations with a woman,” according to the Trident, the journalism program of the Florida Center for Government Accountability, which was the source of the original story about the rape accusation.

According to an affidavit filed by Sarasota police Det. Angela Cox, Christian Ziegler admitted to police he recorded the incident that led to the rape allegation, a video police also recovered in the investigation. Bridget Ziegler told investigators she and her husband had a joint sexual encounter with the same woman more than a year ago, according to the affidavit.

A second video has been recovered by police showing Bridget Ziegler, a cofounder of the conservative Moms for Liberty, engaging in sexual relations with a woman, sources said. It is not known if the woman in the video is the same woman who has alleged she was sexually assaulted by Christian Ziegler. Neither Christian nor Bridget Ziegler have responded to requests for comment from the Trident.

Remember, Bridget Ziegler bragged onstage to her fellow AstroTurf “mama bears” and Ron DeSantis about her role in writing Florida’s notorious “Don’t Say Gay” law — during approximately the same timeframe she was shagging another woman while her husband filmed it. The latter would be none of our business if not for the former, but here we are. Her victims haven’t forgotten her role in their ongoing persecution:

Numerous citizens spoke at last week’s packed school board meeting against Bridget Ziegler, many of them claiming the revelations of the police investigation exposed hypocrisy in her anti-LGBTQ efforts.

“Bridget and Christian Ziegler have stepped on the backs of marginalized communities across Florida,” said Nicholas Mechuka, of Equality Florida, at the meeting. “They have demonized people, Bridget Ziegler is an architect of Moms for Liberty. It is not a grassroots movement. It is a cynical sick tool hatched by the Zieglers to sell fear and division for political gain.”

“You have emotionally and psychologically damaged countless students, parents, and teachers with your hateful rhetoric,” resident Steve Russell told Bridget Ziegler. “Resign.”

They won’t resign, but the story isn’t going anywhere thanks to outfits like the Trident making public records requests for the videos (denied due the ongoing investigation…for now) and interviewing sources in the police department. Meanwhile, elections — and with them, accountability — are coming in 2024. Will Floridians take out the trash? We’ll see.

Open thread.

Tale of the Tape(s)Post + Comments (161)

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Michigan Establishes A Pattern of Criminal Behavior

by Anne Laurie|  December 22, 20237:53 am| 172 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

.
. 🎄🐸🐸💕
. have yourself
. a merry little Christmas
.
. 🎥indiarosecrawford
pic.twitter.com/oDr1BgsYBs

— Urbanartist (@Urbanartist2) December 21, 2023

Michigan, My Michigan…

Today’s reminder of the total & complete failure of Mike Pence and the 15 Principal Officers of the Executive Departments to uphold their oaths of office, long before we even got to January 6. https://t.co/9UiOi9On4s

— Mark Copelovitch (@mcopelov) December 22, 2023

More bombshell evidence against Trump: New audio emerges of Trump lying and pressuring local election officials in Michigan to not certify the 2020 election results. (Video: CNN) pic.twitter.com/aVby3LVckX

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) December 22, 2023

show full post on front page

Another perfect phone call!!!!

— Jason Dictator on Day One @Boundless Trails (@j_consolidation) December 21, 2023

Craig Mauger, at the Detroit News — “Trump recorded pressuring Wayne County canvassers not to certify 2020 vote”:

Then-President Donald Trump personally pressured two Republican members of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers not to sign the certification of the 2020 presidential election, according to recordings reviewed by The Detroit News and revealed publicly for the first time.

On a Nov. 17, 2020, phone call, which also involved Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, Trump told Monica Palmer and William Hartmann, the two GOP Wayne County canvassers, they’d look “terrible” if they signed the documents after they first voted in opposition and then later in the same meeting voted to approve certification of the county’s election results, according to the recordings.

“We’ve got to fight for our country,” said Trump on the recordings, made by a person who was present for the call with Palmer and Hartmann. “We can’t let these people take our country away from us.”

McDaniel, a Michigan native and the leader of the Republican Party nationally, said at another point in the call, “If you can go home tonight, do not sign it. … We will get you attorneys.”

To which Trump added: “We’ll take care of that.”

Palmer and Hartmann left the canvassers meeting without signing the official statement of votes for Wayne County, and the following day, they unsuccessfully attempted to rescind their votes in favor of certification, filing legal affidavits claiming they were pressured…

The News listened to audio that was captured in four recordings by someone present for the conversation between Trump and the canvassers. That information came to The News through an intermediary who also heard the recordings but who was not present when they were made. Sources presented the information to The News on the condition that they not be identified publicly for fear of retribution by the former president or his supporters.

The timestamp of the first recording was 9:55 p.m. Nov. 17, 2020. The time was consistent with Verizon phone records obtained by a U.S. House committee that showed Palmer received calls from McDaniel at 9:53 p.m. and 10:04 p.m…

Big deal. We knew these calls happened.

We did not know they were recorded.

As we’ve seen in GA, a recording can have a significant ripple effect.

Michigan’s AG is still investigating efforts to overturn the 2020 election results there. https://t.co/slTTfM6QEg

— Zachary Cohen (@ZcohenCNN) December 22, 2023

Offering an official something of value (services of a lawyer) in exchange for withholding official action (certifying the Wayne County vote) sounds like a classic case of bribery under Michigan State law. https://t.co/S2LjhgYY88 pic.twitter.com/BiO3uV4NIR

— Joyce Alene (@JoyceWhiteVance) December 22, 2023

This was no bid to secure a recount or challenge particular votes; it aimed at zeroing out the votes of Michigan's most populous county, Detroit plus dozens of suburbs, to overcome his 155,000-vote statewide deficit.

Trump was plain and simple trying to steal the 2020 election. https://t.co/e80rV5HC8I

— Walter Olson (@walterolson) December 22, 2023

Can we just take a moment & thank Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson & all the election workers & citizens of Wayne County, Michigan who didn’t flinch against Trump’s pressure campaign to overturn democracy? Their courage, bravery, & commitment to democracy are heroic. Thank you.

— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) December 22, 2023

Tonight feels like a good time to tell you all that, for me, the absolute lowest moment in the post election battle we endured to protect Michigan’s accurate and legitimate election results in 2020 was not when armed protestors stormed my home. It was the night of the Wayne…

— Jocelyn Benson (@JocelynBenson) December 22, 2023

Tonight feels like a good time to tell you all that, for me, the absolute lowest moment in the post election battle we endured to protect Michigan’s accurate and legitimate election results in 2020 was not when armed protestors stormed my home. It was the night of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers meeting.

I distinctly remember coming home that evening feeling completely defeated. We knew about the pressure not to certify (though until tonight I did not know about the recording).

We were prepared to go to court to successfully ensure certification at the local and state level – and we were confident we’d win in court. But blocking certification in Wayne County and pushing this to the courts would still delay and create enough doubt and uncertainty to enable the Trump campaign to push Pennsylvania, which was certifying the next week, to delay as well. And we knew other dominos would fall after that.

How could we overcome the pressure of the then-President of the United States on local and state officials? Were the facts and law not enough?

Well, then something I’ll never forget happened.

Hundreds – hundreds (!) – of citizens showed up to the meeting of the Wayne County Canvassing Board to remind them of their duty under the law to ensure their votes counted. Their voices mattered. Their votes mattered.

In my view that turned the tide. Citizens and election officials in Wayne County and statewide didn’t flinch, stood firm, and demanded their votes be certified as required under the law.

And in the end, the Wayne County Canvassing board fulfilled their legal duty, followed the law and certified the election.

What started as the lowest moment of the post election melee became the most inspiring.

And in the end, the Wayne County Canvassing board fulfilled their legal duty, followed the law and certified the election.

What started as the lowest moment of the post election melee became the most inspiring.

The voters won. Facts and the rule of law carried the day.

Democracy prevailed.

Thank you for coming to my #TedTalk ✌🏼

Everything Trump touches…

Monica Palmer, one of the Repubs on the Wayne Co Board of Canvassers, doesn’t dispute the Detroit News characterization of the call. William Hartmann can’t comment. He accused Dems of using vaccines & masks to screw up elections…before he died in Dec 2021, unvaccinated, of COVID https://t.co/gJJkztnvga

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 22, 2023

Lee Chatfield was the Speaker of the Michigan House who met w Trump. He’s being investigated for sexually assaulting his future sister in law when she was a teenager & student at his family’s Christian school

Today his top aides were charged w embezzlement. https://t.co/Sv6MqlKDIJ

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 22, 2023

We’ve never gotten a good explanation for why Michigan Repubs initially praised Whitmer for handling COVID, then flipped 100%. Hard not to wonder if Ronna Romney McDaniel &/or Betsy DeVos picked up the phone & told their home-state Repubs to push a hard partisan line on COVID

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 22, 2023

This news comes 3 years after the 2020 election.

Among other things, it’s a reminder that there are stories yet to be told about efforts by Trump and his allies to reverse the results of the 2020 election.

Kudos to @CraigDMauger—a local journalist—for this excellent reporting. https://t.co/ZO5jNoAbv0

— Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) December 22, 2023

That end-of-year feeling when you got a lot of 🤫 done thanks to a new majority in the Michigan Legislature. pic.twitter.com/mlsTlRh6Mo

— Governor Gretchen Whitmer (@GovWhitmer) December 20, 2023

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Michigan Establishes A Pattern of Criminal BehaviorPost + Comments (172)

Late Night Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  December 22, 202312:37 am| 83 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Looks like we can use an open thread!

What’s everybody up to?  I thought it was so funny on Cole’s thread to see just how many of us were worried about Maxwell staying home alone, myself included, but with nobody saying anything until Cole announced tonight that Maxwell is joining the tour.

I finally put my tree up, and I’m so glad I did.

Tuesday Afternoon Open Thread 3

The last item on this list made me laugh.

2023 ending on upbeat note for Joe Biden/Dems:
– Economy booming, Dow breaking records
– Inflation, crime, rents, gas down
– Consumer sentiment rising sharply
– Nov elections were blue wave
– 15 polls now w/Biden tied/leading (below)
– GOP is an historic shitshow https://t.co/Jt1TCRZLrS

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) December 21, 2023

Open thread.

Late Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (83)

War for Ukraine Day 666: Another Brief Update

by Adam L Silverman|  December 21, 20239:16 pm| 18 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of a mural of an eye shedding a tear/crying. The upper eyelid is painted in the blue of Ukraine's flag. The lower eyelid is painted in the yellow of Ukraine's flag. The mural was painted by the artist MyDogSighs.

(Image by My Dog Sighs)

I’m still fried, so just another cover the basics update tonight.

Russia opened up again on Ukraine overnight.

Shaheds shall not pass!

Overnight, Ukrainian air defenders shot down 34 out of 35 "Shahed" kamikaze drones in our sky.

📷: Rubizh Brigade pic.twitter.com/HADHIdAfeS

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 21, 2023

As I’ve written before, the goal is to exhaust Ukraine’s air defense munitions now that the House GOP majority combined with Senate Minority Leader McConnell and his caucus have run out the clock on the authorizations and appropriations needed for the US to resupply Ukraine. And once Putin exhausts the Ukrainians munitions he’ll reduce the actual air defense platforms and then Ukraine’s power grid, granaries, and other civilian infrastructure.

Speaker Johnson, Senator McConnell and every single member of their caucuses, as well as Biden’s senior natsec appointees should all be forced to stare at this picture every hour over the long holiday weekend so that the gravity of the situation sinks in.

When he calls home, he'll say, 'I'm okay. Take care there!' Because on the front lines, they don’t have the luxury of war fatigue

📷 118th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/jbeqvAfK3N

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 18, 2023

From just 3 hours ago:

A residential building has been hit by Shaheds in Kyiv.
Again.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 21, 2023

Aftermath of drone strike on high-rise in Solomiansky district of Kyiv.

Russian attack continues across Ukraine tonight pic.twitter.com/gtuG62fzK2

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 21, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

On the eve of Christmas, there should be maximum attention to defense, maximum energy for Ukraine to achieve its goals – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

21 December 2023 – 19:24

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief summary of the day.

First. We continue our new tradition of honoring the Heroes of Ukraine. Everyone who has been awarded this title must receive an apartment from the state. We started this tradition on Ukraine’s Armed Forces Day and continued it today. I had the honor to hand over the Gold Star Orders to the families of the Heroes who were awarded posthumously. I also handed over certificates for apartments – another 20 families of our Heroes received housing. Soldiers, sailors, sergeants, officers. Others – every Hero of Ukraine – will receive the same. In total, 362 people have been awarded this title since the beginning of the full-scale war and up to now. These are warriors of the Armed Forces, the National Guard, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Security Service of Ukraine and other elements of the Defense and Security Forces.

Second for today. I had a rather extensive and substantive meeting with government officials regarding our work with the European Union to ensure that financial support for Ukraine continues at a sufficient level for the next four years. The Prime Minister, the First Deputy Prime Minister, and ministers were present. We discussed the details and specific decisions needed. We are working as actively as possible to guarantee stability for our country and resilience in all its institutions, in all systems and functions of the state. And this will be achieved.

I am grateful to everyone who helps. I am grateful to everyone who makes the protection of our national interests not only fair, but also thoroughly elaborated.

An important international conversation took place with the United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres. The focus was on security, particularly maritime security in the Black Sea, including the expansion of this security, and therefore the strengthening of global food security. And the approach of the moment when we can restore security to all our people – when we can end the Russian aggression. End it in a fair manner. I have invited a representative of the United Nations to a new meeting of advisers on the implementation of the Peace Formula. This meeting, which we are currently preparing, will be the fourth of its kind. And gradually – step by step – we are filling the content of each of the ten points of the Peace Formula with the consent of the world majority.

Another point. Now, on the eve of Christmas, everyone in our state should remember that this time is a time for concentration, a time for work, a time to be able to relax afterwards. Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and every other region of ours, where the fate of the state is currently being decided. By our warriors, by all our people. Maximum attention to defense. Maximum efforts for the sake of the state. Maximum energy for Ukraine to be able to achieve its goals. I thank everyone who lives in this way. Who fights and works for the sake of Ukraine.

Today there was a separate report by the Main Intelligence Directorate. The enemy’s plans, the work of the Russian defense industry – there are signals that they are slowing down. We will help them to slow down even more.

We believe in our strength! And every day we add strength to Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

And here’s the video of the award presentation ceremony.

The reason:

20-year-old Vitaly "Beaver" serves in the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade. All men from his family are also military. The soldier recalls the battle on the 4th of July, when his comrade died heroically, and talks about the motivation that keeps him at the front. pic.twitter.com/eqhIHDE9CP

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) December 21, 2023

For those marking Advent on your calendars this season:

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 21

Today, we express our gratitude to our friends from Denmark (@Forsvarsmin), the Netherlands (@Defensie), the USA (@DeptofDefense), the UK (@DefenceHQ), and Spain (@Defensagob) for Harpoon missiles and launchers.

Harpoon missiles help Ukraine in… pic.twitter.com/SFwQPKpblM

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 21, 2023

 

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 21 Today, we express our gratitude to our friends from Denmark (@Forsvarsmin), the Netherlands (@Defensie), the USA (@DeptofDefense), the UK (@DefenceHQ), and Spain (@Defensagob) for Harpoon missiles and launchers.

Harpoon missiles help Ukraine in ensuring security in the Black Sea region and pushing russia’s fleet to the eastern part of the sea.

The Weapons of Victory project is coming to a close. But stay tuned for updates!

Finland is providing new military aid package valued at € 106 million for Ukraine.

Thank you, friends! We appreciate your unwavering support in the fight against the russian aggression.
🇺🇦🤝🇫🇮@DefenceFinland

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 21, 2023

The German Defense Ministry released a statement that 120 Marder 1A3 IFVs have been delivered to Ukraine.

80 came from stockpiles of the German army and 40 more from stockpiles of the industry.

Source: https://t.co/5mWrLWpVCr#Germany #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/q3tgKmSe57

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 21, 2023

The Toronto Sun looked around and decided they wanted to lean into the actual antisemitism too:

Agree. And it’s also despicable to portray Ukraine’s two-year fight for survival — a war in which many tens of thousands of its best have been killed by Russia — as some sort of a scam. Deeply disrespectful to every Ukrainian, regardless of what they may think of Zelensky. https://t.co/TqmUrGIcHA

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) December 21, 2023

Hey @TheTorontoSun does it feel good to be a cheap jackal drawing dumb cartoons and ridiculing Ukraine in its greatest tragedy while staying a continent and an ocean away from what’s happening to her?

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 21, 2023

My op-ed @FT today on time & timing as a factor in Russia‘s war against #Ukraine.⬇️ https://t.co/nFnp0VmAFT

— Gwendolyn Sasse (@GwendolynSasse) December 21, 2023

 

From The Financial Times:

Time keeps ticking relentlessly. The challenge of crisis management and policymaking more generally is to get ahead of it rather than watching days, months or years go by. From the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia’s war against Ukraine has been characterised by diverging time horizons and the expectations that go with them. To date, connecting the different time zones of this war has proved impossible, but the urgent necessity of doing so has increased steadily. Time zones that drift apart create room for manoeuvre — in this case, for Russia and for those in western countries who want to polarise and undermine democratic values along the way.

Ukraine now has to get through its second winter since the full-scale invasion. The US presidential elections loom large over western support for Kyiv. The Israel-Hamas war reduces the already diminishing public attention span for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Next June’s European parliament elections may make the EU appear more fragile than ever. In the meantime, Russia has adjusted economically and politically to sustain a much longer war than initially intended.

What are some of the time zones of this war? Before 2022, the west underestimated the time it had left to manage security risks emanating from Russia. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine felt like a surprise despite the preceding stages. Conversely, the Kremlin believed its own rhetoric and underestimated Ukraine: the plan to quickly take Kyiv and replace the Ukrainian government failed, turning the conflict into an uncertain and much longer war.

By definition, for Ukrainians, assistance always comes too late. Uncertainty about western countries’ long-term commitment adds to the pressure on Ukrainian politics and society. Many Nato and EU states have made significant aid pledges, but much of it has yet to be disbursed. Making a promise for the future is one thing, delivering on promises in the present is something else.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government have kept up the pressure on western capitals by focusing not on past or ongoing assistance, but on concrete requests for future weapons deliveries. Vladimir Putin himself thinks in centuries of continuity of Russian imperial rule.

The mantra of “supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes”, a common but vague temporal reference point in the German political debate, which echoes in other western policymakers’ speeches, increasingly resembles self-reassurance rather than a future-orientated strategy. Moreover, frequent references to “Ukraine’s victory” have turned this phrase into a means for politicians to position themselves rather than act. In times of war, a word or phrase carries particular weight. But even a principled position is not sufficient in itself and has to be measured against current and future action.

These days there is more openly voiced concern about a potential “Russian victory”, as time increasingly seems to be on Moscow’s side. Outlining a future scenario can underpin joint efforts to prevent it, but it risks turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy. It spreads a sense of uncertainty and creates space for those considering or calling for peace negotiations. Such proposals ignore the fact that the Kremlin shows no interest in peace. They distract from the daily reality of war at the front and in Russian-occupied territories.

Western and in particular European governments have a decisive role to play at this juncture. Europe needs a strategy that takes seriously the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. This must include a decision on using the remaining window of time to step up military assistance to Ukraine and military production in Europe. The EU, meanwhile, must push ahead with Ukraine’s membership negotiations.

Thinking about Russia’s war against Ukraine in temporal logic underlines that time is of the essence. The time zones of Ukraine and its western allies need to be reconnected before entirely new ones open up in 2024.

More at the link.

Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Destruction of the same Russian TOS-1A as in the post attached. Video by the birds of Magyar unit.https://t.co/gVvkKKRY3K https://t.co/tAgkovIc6T pic.twitter.com/4AIzZXZjPb

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 21, 2023

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

What we believe to be Russians placing fake bodies on a destroyed vehicle. Unclear why. Donetsk direction. pic.twitter.com/VoJIri5UKT

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) December 21, 2023

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Strikes on the battery of the Russian Uragan MLRS. SEVERAL 9P140 launchers and 9T452 transport-loader vehicles were destroyed. Kherson region, 30km from the front line.
P.S: As said by HIMARS. So the FPV claims are not confirmed.https://t.co/hXMxX6erDa https://t.co/W4yQ0x1fK5 pic.twitter.com/GD2Q8GrxOm

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 21, 2023

Obligatory:

Makiivka, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Strike/explosion in Makiivka, near Donetsk pic.twitter.com/ZLiOS5EVQJ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 21, 2023

Something large is burning in Russian-occupied Makiivka.

Source: https://t.co/9LipEXe1fw#Ukraine #Donetsk #Makiivka pic.twitter.com/qhfeHcYTwE

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 21, 2023

Russian occupied Crimea:

Yesterday, reports appeared in the media about an attack on Russian military bases in Crimea near the city of Saki and near Alushta. Now the following description of the attack has appeared:

(Also, no photos/videos have yet appeared confirming the results of the attack, as well… pic.twitter.com/z0szA7yKol

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 21, 2023

Yesterday, reports appeared in the media about an attack on Russian military bases in Crimea near the city of Saki and near Alushta. Now the following description of the attack has appeared:

(Also, no photos/videos have yet appeared confirming the results of the attack, as well as satellite photos since the Crimean peninsula is now covered with clouds most of the time)

«Regarding yesterday’s attack on the communications center and command and control complex in Crimea.

Yesterday, December 20, 2023, an attack was carried out on two important facilities in Crimea. Previously, the information was published on the tg channel “ASTRA”. However, it requires clarification.

The first strike was at the Information Reception and Processing Center of the FSB of the Russian Federation, located in the village of Solnechnogorskoye, near Alushta. Three satellite communication antennas were seriously damaged. The attack was carried out using 4 British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles (not a UAV, as ASTRA had previously stated).

The second blow was delivered to the 40th separate command and measurement complex of the Russian Aerospace Forces (military unit 81415), located in the village. Vitino, near the city of Saki. The attack was carried out using 2 cruise missiles of the British-French production “Storm Shadow/SCALP”. One of the missiles did not reach the target; the strike from the second destroyed the Tobol electronic warfare system.

Tobol is an interesting target. The complex is used to suppress the Starlink satellite signal. Previously, the use of the Starlink signal by Ukrainian sea drones “SeaBaby” was noted to strike the Crimean Bridge and ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.»

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/464

Avdiivka:

The performance of the few M2 Bradley IFVs Ukraine received from the USA is absolutely astonishing. In some cases a single Bradley wiped out entire Russian units and single-handily blunts entire Russian assaults near Avdiivka, thanks to the superior optics and accurate 25mm… pic.twitter.com/UiARiDU0aq

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 21, 2023

The performance of the few M2 Bradley IFVs Ukraine received from the USA is absolutely astonishing. In some cases a single Bradley wiped out entire Russian units and single-handily blunts entire Russian assaults near Avdiivka, thanks to the superior optics and accurate 25mm cannon.

Source: https://t.me/operativnoZSU/128223

#Ukraine #Donetsk #Avdiivka

For Omnes and the other redlegs.

russian artillery on fire 🔥

Ukrainian artillerymen destroyed russian 2S5 Giatsint-S self-propelled howitzer.

📹: 59th Motorized Brigade pic.twitter.com/32hHGqCU5Z

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 21, 2023

This year, our Pivnyk, the Rooster from Borodianka, lights up Christmas trees across European capitals. True symbol of Ukrainians' resilience and hope that can’t be bombed out

This one stands tall at @EUCouncil pic.twitter.com/mUC2mDc8xs

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 21, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new tweets or videos from Patron today. Here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Good morning from 🇺🇦
The mood of the day: love furry friends, destroy the enemy.

📸: 67th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/cwcbmy5w7e

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 21, 2023

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 666: Another Brief UpdatePost + Comments (18)

Grifters Gonna Grift Open Thread: No Ethics Labels & Other Third-Party Schemers

by Anne Laurie|  December 21, 20238:37 pm| 46 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads

I hope there are Democrats keeping track of who works for No Labels to ensure that none of them ever work in Dem party politics. https://t.co/gRKKJdKLCf

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 21, 2023

Because ‘Incumbent busy presidenting, outcumbent swiftly unravelling’ scores few clicks, it’s time for another round of Third Party Proposals. NBC has a truly premium example — “No Labels floats the possibility of a coalition government or Congress selecting the president in 2024”:

No Labels, the organization attempting to assemble a third-party presidential unity ticket, is openly floating the prospect of a “coalition government” forming after the 2024 election if no candidate reaches the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the White House.

Officials with the group are mapping out an unlikely and largely unprecedented scenario where they could be in a position to cut deals on policy, Cabinet posts or even the vice presidency if their still-unformed ticket manages to win electoral votes and blocks a major-party nominee from winning the presidency outright.

“It’s possible that if you got to the Electoral College and no candidate had 270 [electoral votes], that there could be negotiation to create a coalition government where electors get traded between different candidates to get somebody over 270,” Ryan Clancy, the chief strategist for No Labels, told reporters on Wednesday. Clancy added: “There are quite a number of states that have what are called ‘unbound electors,’ which is to say: Those electors are not statutorily required to vote for the candidate that won their state at the Electoral College.”…

To quote an old proverb: And if my aunt had wheels, she could’ve been a tea cart!

show full post on front page

Former Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, a co-founder of No Labels, expanded on the group’s view of this potential scenario in an interview with NBC News on Thursday, suggesting the No Labels ticket could “cut a deal” with one of the major parties’ tickets.

“It could be Cabinet posts. It could be a policy concession. That’s the kind of thing it could be,” Davis said, adding the vice presidential position could also be part of the discussions…

Davis also said that the group is looking at another potential, if far-fetched, outcome: A contingent election in which the president is selected by the U.S. House…

The last third-party presidential candidate to win Electoral College votes was George Wallace, who ran on the American Independent Party ticket in 1968.

These people wanted a swinging vp on Jan 6th too but they couldn’t pull it off

— Matt Needles (@MattNeedles) December 21, 2023

No labels is a scam, a grift, a bundling organization that lines the pockets of Mark Penn and Nancy Jacobson to harm Dems and that's it https://t.co/i91Aw0f7rP

— Eric Blair???? (@protecttruth_) December 21, 2023

Elsewhere, Dean Phillips, moderately moderate for moderation:

“Biden-style moderate but 30 years younger!” had no takers, onto “Remember Bernie, kids?” https://t.co/VNlOWXgDZY

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) December 20, 2023

People can say “If only it was Newsom/Whitmer/Shapiro/Pritzker/whoever,” but it’s all playing Politics 2K in GM mode — there’s been no groundswell of public support for anyone to get in the race, even as voters keep telling pollsters they don’t want Biden again

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) December 20, 2023

Dean Phillips, totally normal Democrat just trying to help Dems hold the White House gets on the Hunter Biden conspiracy gravy train https://t.co/rHG7H2CTJh via @TPM

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) December 12, 2023

ICYMI:

Win a day of falconry with RFK Jr https://t.co/7CpFmUFikQ

— ben ??????? (@hayesy316) December 15, 2023


(That poor bird is blinking Get me outta here in Morse code.)

RFK Jr is tripping all over himself trying to walk-back decades of anti-#Vaccine statements, articles and books he made. Bravo to @CNN for playing one such "there are no safe vaccines" statement he made to #RFKJr2024 and requesting explanation. https://t.co/X02Zy89PEF

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) December 17, 2023

Grifters Gonna Grift Open Thread: No <del>Ethics</del> Labels & Other Third-Party SchemersPost + Comments (46)

Thursday Afternoon News Roundup

by WaterGirl|  December 21, 20233:17 pm| 238 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Trump Indictments

Things are still in flux, but it looks like the UN Security Council vote has been delayed by one more day.  It appears that President Biden is participating in the “high level” talks.

This is interesting, though it may not bode well for the possibility of the U.S. abstaining and not vetoing.  But Blinken does make an interesting point.

Blinken: “What is striking to me is that even as we hear many countries urging the end to this conflict, which we would all like to see, I hear virtually no one saying, demanding of Hamas, that it stop hiding behind civilians, lay down its arms, that it surrender.” pic.twitter.com/HCT05OaOnX

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) December 20, 2023

🎄

Jack Smith asks for an immediate, definitive decision from the Supreme Court.
I like the sound of that.

👀👀👀 https://t.co/y4El54IG1V

— Andrew Weissmann (weissmann11 on Threads)🌻 (@AWeissmann_) December 21, 2023

🎄

Don’t shoot the messenger department: I’m surprised to be hearing many rosy assessments on the shows about the likelihood that the Supreme Court affirm the Colorado Supreme Court ruling disqualifying Trump. I’ve got to say I think it’s a definite long shot.

— Harry Litman (@harrylitman) December 20, 2023

🎄

show full post on front page

Two good resources related to Trump’s disqualification by the Colorado Supreme Court, at least for now.

If you have 5 minutes to listen to a really great summary 0f the 8 legal conclusions in the Colorado Supreme Court ruling, click play below and then move the slider to 6:15.  You’ll hear Mary McCord explaining each of the 8 legal conclusions.  Andrew Weissman jumps in after the first one, and if you’re short on time you can click ahead in 30-second increments until you hear Mary speaking again. At that point, she goes through points 2-8 without interruption.

Here’s Harry Litman talking with Steve Vladeck, who must be the go-to guy on SCOTUS and the 14th Amendment, section three issue – because he has been a guest on Lawfare and Prosecuting Donald Trump this week, and now we have this one-on-one with Harry Litman.

🎄

This is not a coincidence pic.twitter.com/oaSDcb0yzs

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) December 20, 2023

We probably all know that Rudy is declaring bankruptcy (this is my shocked face).

What else is everybody up to?  Frantic holiday preparations or keeping up with the news?

Open thread.

Thursday Afternoon News RoundupPost + Comments (238)

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