Open Threads

Today, @POTUS Joe Biden and I discussed how to increase our strength for the next year.

Air defense and capabilities to destroy Russian logistics on our land; strengthening democracy’s arsenal by co-producing arms; more sanctions and isolation for Russia.

It’s very important… pic.twitter.com/KMfeUso6HD

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 13, 2023

Today, @POTUS Joe Biden and I discussed how to increase our strength for the next year.

Air defense and capabilities to destroy Russian logistics on our land; strengthening democracy’s arsenal by co-producing arms; more sanctions and isolation for Russia.

It’s very important that, by the end of this year, we can send a strong signal of our unity to the aggressor. The unity of Ukraine, America, Europe, and the entire free world.

Ukraine’s greatest wish is to near this war’s victorious end. No one but Putin wants a prolonged war. We dream of a Christmas in peacetime.

We’re working to turn our battlefield success into peace. And we’re heading there—together with you and thanks to your support.

Thank you, @POTUS Joe Biden. Thank you, America.

BREAKING: Pres. Biden says he "just signed another $200 million drawdown for the Dept. of Defense for Ukraine, and that'll be coming quickly." https://t.co/3wrMYGN76G pic.twitter.com/4drVEZoKZN

— ABC News (@ABC) December 12, 2023

While this is a welcome announcement, it is important to remember that this leaves only about $250 to $300 million of appropriated funding left for the Biden administration to use to provide Ukraine with support. Today’s announcement is most likely the second to last aid package until or unless the Republicans in the House and Senate release the hostage they’ve made of the supplemental aid legislation.

Today at the White House, I met with @VP Kamala Harris to reiterate my gratitude for U.S. support.

During the winter, American air defense and energy equipment assists us in strengthening Ukraine's resilience.

More Ukrainians will be able to come home if our cities and… pic.twitter.com/IAFyglO73a

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 12, 2023

Today at the White House, I met with @VP Kamala Harris to reiterate my gratitude for U.S. support.

During the winter, American air defense and energy equipment assists us in strengthening Ukraine’s resilience.

More Ukrainians will be able to come home if our cities and infrastructure are better protected, allowing Ukraine to attain economic independence.

We also discussed the Peace Formula and the way to just peace, as well as our grain corridor, which bolsters global food security.

I met with House Democrats and House Democratic Leader @RepJeffries.

I am grateful to both parties and chambers of the U.S. Congress, President Biden, and the entire American people for their strong support for Ukraine in our fight against Russian aggression.

We discussed… pic.twitter.com/bFLYQBNfXr

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 12, 2023

I met with House Democrats and House Democratic Leader @RepJeffries.

I am grateful to both parties and chambers of the U.S. Congress, President Biden, and the entire American people for their strong support for Ukraine in our fight against Russian aggression.

We discussed Ukraine’s top military needs throughout the winter, as well as joint Ukrainian-American arms production.

Ukraine has liberated half of its newly occupied territories, secured its own maritime grain corridor, and is winning in the Black Sea. We require continued U.S. support, as well as the unity of all of our allies.

I also stressed that Ukraine manages all aid in the most transparent, effective, and responsible manner, in close coordination with our partners.

I had a great meeting with House Speaker @SpeakerJohnson.

I am grateful to the U.S. Congress for the strong bipartisan and bicameral support that has been provided to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale aggression began.

I briefed Speaker Johnson about Ukraine’s achievements,… pic.twitter.com/fV6NIPPUGE

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 12, 2023

I had a great meeting with House Speaker @SpeakerJohnson.

I am grateful to the U.S. Congress for the strong bipartisan and bicameral support that has been provided to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale aggression began.

I briefed Speaker Johnson about Ukraine’s achievements, including liberating half of the land occupied by Russia since 2022, winning the battle for the Black Sea, and reforming the country to make it self-sufficient in the future.

I thank speaker Johnson for supporting Ukraine’s fight for freedom and we count on continued assistance from our strategic partner, the US, in 2024.

For those marking Advent on your calendars this season:

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 12
 
It's ATACMS time! We are grateful to our US partners at @DeptofDefense for such an effective weapon.
 #ATACMS missiles give Ukraine an opportunity for asymmetric responses to the occupiers. They’ve become a formidable weapon in the hands of 🇺🇦… pic.twitter.com/svFNCSdRVm

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 12, 2023

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 12

It’s ATACMS time! We are grateful to our US partners at @DeptofDefense for such an effective weapon.

#ATACMS missiles give Ukraine an opportunity for asymmetric responses to the occupiers. They’ve become a formidable weapon in the hands of 🇺🇦 warriors.

We are already halfway through our Advent Calendar. Thanks to the support of our friends, Weapons of Victory continue to inflict maximum damage on the aggressors.

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

Today is also Ukrainian Ground Forces Day:

Today is the Day of the Ukrainian Ground Forces—the most numerous and powerful branch of our Defense Forces!

The Ground Forces warriors move forward, regaining every piece of occupied territory and inflicting significant losses on the enemy. They do not stop until Ukraine… pic.twitter.com/zPcHCVaj9U

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 12, 2023

Today is the Day of the Ukrainian Ground Forces—the most numerous and powerful branch of our Defense Forces!

The Ground Forces warriors move forward, regaining every piece of occupied territory and inflicting significant losses on the enemy. They do not stop until Ukraine reaches the borders of our state.

The motto “For Ukraine! For its freedom!” is an echo and continuation of the centuries-old traditions of the struggle for our freedom.

Congratulations to our brave warriors! Victory will be ours!

This is a VERY good sign:

Good show of unity here after weeks of reports of tensions in Kyiv between various political and military leaders. https://t.co/EPqbhdz2UD

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 12, 2023

For weeks there has been rumor mongering that President Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi were in opposition to each other and that General Zaluzhnyi was unhappy with Colonel-General Sirskyi. And that all of this was a major indicator that the wheels were coming off. That President Zelenskyy would fire General Zaluzhnyi before the latter could depose him and take over. The Russian bots and trolls and their tankie and vatnik useful idiot friends have been working over time pushing this garbage. We now have two major indicators that none of this is true. The first is that if President Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi were at odds and the former was concerned the latter might depose him, then President Zelenskyy would never have left Ukraine. This meeting between the Minister of Defense Umerov, General Zaluzhnyi, and Colonel-General Syrskyi is the other indicator that the senior leadership is not at odds with each other.

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

Defence Minister Rustem Umierov and Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, have visited firing positions of soldiers on one of the fronts in Ukraine’s east.

Source: press service of the Ministry of Defence; Ground Forces Command

Details: It is noted that Umierov and Zaluzhnyi congratulated the soldiers on the Day of the Ground Forces. Umierov also presented state awards to the military.

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group, briefed Umierov and Zaluzhnyi on the situation on one of the eastern fronts. The parties also discussed the key needs of Ukrainian soldiers, which are necessary for their effective work.

Ukrainska Pravda is also reporting that Defense Minister Umerov is not considering replacing General Zaluzhnyi:

Rustem Umierov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has stated in a commentary for journalists that the replacement of Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is not being considered.

Source: Umierov in a commentary for Suspilne media outlet’s correspondent during a joint briefing with the Latvian Defence Minister

Quote: “There are always some unresolved issues which were there before I took office, and I am very open about them towards the society and my colleagues. There are no such plans [to dismiss Zaluzhnyi]. I know that this issue is being promoted both externally and internally. Today the Commander-in-Chief and I congratulated the Ground Forces Commander together. We are always cracking jokes about it, so I asked him: “Who is firing you this time?”

Details: Umierov also noted that he is always open to suggestions concerning the changes in the military command. If some changes are planned, he said would report about them.

Background:

On 29 November, The Economist wrote that along with the harsh reality of trench warfare, tensions on the “political battlefield” in Kyiv are also growing. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy considers the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces his rival, and political infighting harms Ukraine.
Ukrainska Pravda sources say that Supreme Commander-in-Chief Volodymyr Zelenskyy communicates with some commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine directly, bypassing Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and interfering with his overall command of the army.

All over Ukraine:

Massive hacker attack hits network core of Kyivstar, Ukraine's top mobile operator with 24 million users. What's do we know as of now 1/

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 12, 2023

More insights on the unprecedented hacker attack:

1. First-ever attack of this scale targeting Kyivstar.
2. Meticulously planned, demonstrating extensive preparation.
3. Successful breach targeted the system core.
4. Intruders maintain unauthorized external control.

The…

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 12, 2023

Here’s the full text of those two tweets in order:

▪️ No connectivity for users – mobile, home internet affected. National roaming impacted.

▪️ Ministry of Infrastructure aims for communication restoration in 4-5 hours. Repair efforts ongoing.

▪️ Some bank terminals & ATMs affected.

▪️ In Sumy the air raid warning system is non-operational.

Will be updated

More insights on the unprecedented hacker attack:

1. First-ever attack of this scale targeting Kyivstar.
2. Meticulously planned, demonstrating extensive preparation.
3. Successful breach targeted the system core.
4. Intruders maintain unauthorized external control.

The question persists whether the personal data of 24 million users was compromised. Company reports no such breach occurred.

Air raid warning systems go offline in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Sumy & other cities across Ukraine due to a cyber attack on Kyivstar.

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 12, 2023

Horlivka:

I thank our heroes, the assault group of our royal brigade, the 24th Mechanized Brigade named after King Danylo Halytskyi!

Despite the challenging conditions, they captured one of the slagheaps within Horlivka and took over enemy positions. The Ukrainian flag 🇺🇦 is now flying… pic.twitter.com/qNe2AldD2a

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 12, 2023

I thank our heroes, the assault group of our royal brigade, the 24th Mechanized Brigade named after King Danylo Halytskyi!

Despite the challenging conditions, they captured one of the slagheaps within Horlivka and took over enemy positions. The Ukrainian flag 🇺🇦 is now flying there.

Horlivka is Ukraine! Donbas is Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1734614337237700643

Avdiivka:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1734702414844801319

I’m going through the latest batch of videos and pictures coming from the Avdiivka front and they show absolute carnage among Russian troops. We already exceeded the amount of Russian losses from Vuhledar some weeks ago, but the last few days severely increased this already staggering figure, with literally no gains in land at all.

Avdiivka appears to be currently the single-largest contributor in progressing Russia’s demographic catastrophe.

#Avdiivka #Kherson #Ukraine

I’ve seen the videos. I’m not posting them. They don’t bother me, but I expect they will bother some or a lot of you all.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1734640769611247844

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1734609092050825675

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1734514103182356718

Intense combat footage shows the effort of the 47th Brigade to stop the Russian advance in Avdiivka. Here, Ukrainian sappers are mining an area of a potential Russian approach in the Stepove area. Filmed in November ’23, the footage shows a Ukrainian sapper group, armed with TM-62 mines, securing an area while under fire from Russian mortars, artillery, and FPV drones.

As of now, the position has been abandoned.

Somewhere in the Southern Command Area of Responsibility, most likely the left bank of the Dnipro in Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1734662907340964111

Donald Tusk has taken office and wants to take the fight to Putin:

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1734521935986414039

“I can no longer listen to politicians who talk about being tired of the situation in Ukraine.” #Poland “will demand the full mobilisation of the free world to help #Ukraine”, newly appointed prime minister @donaldtusk said.

“We also need to speak with one voice about Ukraine. This must also unite us. The attack on Ukraine is an attack on all of us.

We will demand full mobilisation of the West to help Ukraine. They tell President Zelensky that they are tired of the situation. I will demand help for Ukraine from day one.

In a few dozen hours, I will be going to Brussels, hoping that we will convince our allies to defend democratic values and Ukraine against Russian aggression.” https://theguardian.com/world/live/2023/dec/12/donald-tusk-prime-minister-poland-parliament-coalition-europe-latest-news?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with%3Ablock-657830398f08f39ca01e7a06#block-657830398f08f39ca01e7a06

And Lech Walesa was there to see it!

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1734143003587924380

You may have seen reporting or the video that an extremist Polish legislator took a fire extinguisher to a Hannukiah, himself, a young woman, and the crowd that gathered. This was not antisemitism for the sake of antisemitism. Rather, it was an attempt to prevent Tusk and his new government from being inaugurated today. It failed and the legislator has been expelled.

If you’re wondering, this is how the Russians are interpreting the Republicans holding up aid to Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1733970476567855118

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1732846806461997486

Here is Fiona Hill’s assessment of what is going on: (emphasis mine)

Since the war began, I’ve turned to Fiona Hill periodically for insight into what’s driving Russian President Vladimir Putin, and where America’s interests lie. She’s a keen observer not just of Russia and its leader, but also of American politics, having served in the White House as a top adviser to both Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump. Since she left the Trump administration (and after a star turn testifying in his first impeachment), she’s become a highly sought-out voice on global affairs as well as the domestic roots of authoritarianism in countries around the world.

When we spoke this week, she made clear that the decision of whether Ukraine wins or loses is now on us — almost entirely.As Congress debates how much more money to authorize for Ukraine’s assistance amid growing Republican opposition, she says that what we are really debating is our own future. Do we want to live in the kind of world that will result if Ukraine loses?

Hill is clear about her answer. A world in which Putin chalks up a win in Ukraine is one where the U.S.’s standing in the world is diminished, where Iran and North Korea are emboldened, where China dominates the Indo-Pacific, where the Middle East becomes more unstable and where nuclear proliferation takes off, among allies as well as enemies.

“Ukraine has become a battlefield now for America and America’s own future — whether we see it or not — for our own defensive posture and preparedness, for our reputation and our leadership,” she told me. “For Putin, Ukraine is a proxy war against the United States, to remove the United States from the world stage.”

Hill sees U.S. domestic politics as the main obstacle to Ukraine’s ability to win. She has long warned, including in a book published after she left the White House, that high levels of partisanship in the United States promote authoritarianism both at home and around the world. She’s been talking to some lawmakers about Ukraine, and she’s worried that their partisanship has blinded them to the dangers the country faces if Putin gets his way.

“The problem is that many members of Congress don’t want to see President Biden win on any front,” she said. “People are incapable now of separating off ‘giving Biden a win’ from actually allowing Ukraine to win. They are thinking less about U.S. national security, European security, international security and foreign policy, and much more about how they can humiliate Biden.”

“In that regard,” she continued, “whether they like it or not, members of Congress are doing exactly the same thing as Vladimir Putin. They hate that. They want to refute that. But Vladimir Putin wants Biden to lose, and they want Biden to be seen to lose as well.”

Much, much, much more at the link!

And here is the Carnegie Endowment’s Dara Massicot’s take. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1734283325819240520

The Kremlin is starting to gloat that it is beating us – the west. If they feel like they can win by outlasting the political will of the United States and Europe about Ukraine, they will become much worse in the years to come, cocky and partially reconstituted. /2 

It is my job to look at different futures being rebuilt on the horizon. And I tell you that a bruised , vengeful, and overconfident Russia is one of them that I see on the path we are on, unless choices are made now. /3 

Why? Every time the Russians think that they have “won” in a conflict under Putin — Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, Syria 2015 – they learn something about us – and they become overconfident in their abilities and in a few years they try bigger and bolder operations. /4 

If the Kremlin concludes they can outlast Ukraine and Western support, they will tell themselves they overcame or defeated US and NATO intelligence, planning, weapons, tactics, will, and defense production. It would be an inaccurate but dangerous conclusion for them to arrive at. 

If Russia were to conclude that their repetitive brute force methods and DIB can overcome western aid to Ukraine and outlast NATO political will and types of support- the outcome would be very dangerous, and it must not be allowed to happen. It could upend deterrence./6 

Prior to 2022, the Russians believed they had several economic, political, and military disadvantages vis-à-vis NATO. If they snatch a type of victory in Ukraine by exhausting and outlasting Ukraine and the West, I believe they will downgrade their assessments about NATO power./7 

The most important reason to continue to fund security assistance to Ukraine is for Ukraine. They want to live free from Kremlin subjugation and brutality. They fight hard, they do not ask anyone to fight for them. Look what they’ve done already to the Russian army./8 

Have a look at these demands from the Russian MFA. They want the west to give up, and for Ukraine to give up and live in subjugation. It is not subtle. /9

Unroll available on Thread Reader

(The immediate response that came to mind was Gen. McAuliffe’s 1944 Christmas letter: “N U T S!” ) /10

“NUTS!” — McAuliffe’s 1944 Christmas Letter – War on the RocksEditor’s Note: In honor of Christmas, we proudly publish the text of Brig. Gen. Anthony McAuliffe’s 1944 Christmas letter to the U.S. 101st Airbornehttps://warontherocks.com/2022/12/nuts-mcauliffes-1944-christmas-letter-3/

It is appropriate to talk about strategy for 2024 and matching ends, ways, and means – that is a good idea and it’s time to do it. Open door offer to talk. But stopping aid now would mean giving up on Ukrainian soldiers in the field./11 

It is in our interests to continue supporting Ukraine for many reasons. Inaction at a critical time could lead once again to a vicious, regenerating, and overconfident Kremlin in the years ahead and would be a political and military catastrophe for all. /end 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. So here is some adjacent material:

https://twitter.com/LorenzoTheCat/status/1734616684512592361

https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1734306206552822079

https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1733917309339603394

https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1733259248245551376

Open thread!