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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

So very ready.

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

Republicans in disarray!

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Lick the third rail, it tastes like chocolate!

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

Washington Post Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

In after Baud. Damn.

People are weird.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

“A king is only a king if we bow down.” – Rev. William Barber

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

They spent the last eight months firing professionals and replacing them with ideologues.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Good People, Not-So-Good People

by Anne Laurie|  December 12, 20236:28 am| 185 Comments

This post is in: Gamer Dork, Healthcare, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Religion, Republican Venality

Tuesday Morning Open Thread 10

(Mike Luckovich via GoComics.com)

 
After all, the original St. Nick rescued three desperate unmarried women by gifting them dowries. And the holiday celebrates a child born to a woman pregnant by someone other than her husband…
 
Won’t be here for holiday giving, but if you want the gamer in your life to feel recognized (or just old):

Agreed, although stamps are now almost less mainstream than D&D was 50 years ago ??

— Christian Schaller (@cfkschaller) December 4, 2023

Jewish Americans embody what the late Rabbi Jonathan Sacks said:

“A people whose capacity for joy cannot be destroyed is itself indestructible.”

Rallying with pride, unity, and even joy in the face of pain – just like the Hanukkah candles that defiantly burned miraculously. pic.twitter.com/34ppL7o4M7

— President Biden (@POTUS) December 12, 2023

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Elsewhere…
Tuesday Morning Open Thread 11

(Joel Pett via GoComics.com)

A comment beneath contempt. https://t.co/otmGRKLudW

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) December 12, 2023

https://t.co/0vDVsAzrsI

I mean who would’ve thought any different

— Johnny (@THELove_Muscle) December 12, 2023

New: JD Vance says Ukraine should cede land and cut a deal with Putin to end the war

“No one can explain to me how this ends without some territorial concessions relative to ‘91 boundaries.”

He’s not worried Putin keeps going.

w/ ?@megan_lebowitz? https://t.co/QjxcHSpznS

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) December 12, 2023

@JDVance1 pic.twitter.com/ajuZufjlmu

— ????MYSTIC??????I AM JACK'S INDICTMENTS ?? (@MDomino07) December 12, 2023

I really believe the R’s understand how important Putin can be in their campaigns with the hack and leak, the smears, the bot and troll farms, the dark oligarch money to super pacs, and they actively do things like this to attract Putins support.

— David Doak (@SouthPoint1000) December 12, 2023

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Good People, Not-So-Good PeoplePost + Comments (185)

Late Night Open Thread: Grok Is WOKE!!!…

by Anne Laurie|  December 12, 20232:21 am| 41 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Science & Technology, Schadenfreude, social media

Two cavemen when grok wakes up and they didn’t want him to pic.twitter.com/NKvz8tShKL

— M1das (@M1das_OW2) December 11, 2023

Musk and his most obsessive fanbois were convinced they could produce an ‘honest’ AI that would give them the answers they wanted, without all that DEI politically correct bafflegab. Best I can understand it, though (you’ll correct me if I’m wrong), AI ‘large language models’ are trained on vast quantities of ordinary online data, and one of the stronger threads in such training generally is DO *NOT* USE THE N-WORD. OR THE R-WORD. OR *THAT* WORD, EITHER…

There is a modern day Manhattan Project afoot, where some of the brightest minds are working tirelessly against seemingly impossible odds to make AI say the n-word pic.twitter.com/LehC7yxXRH

— Sweet Meteor O'Death (@smod4real) December 9, 2023

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(You ask me, that’s the base meaning of Heinlein’s original neologism: To grok something is to understand it entirely and holistically. It wasn’t supposed to mean ‘if you’re special enough, you don’t need to bother with niceties like education and social indoctrination’, but that’s how the last couple generations of technerds have usually defined the concept, for reasons. This may also have something to do with current AI’s level of factual inaccuracy…)

Late Night Open Thread: <em>Grok Is WOKE!!!... </em> 1

Late Night Open Thread: <em>Grok Is WOKE!!!... </em> 2

Late Night Open Thread: <em>Grok Is WOKE!!!... </em> 5

how sharper than a serpent's tooth it is pic.twitter.com/DXgIOIbFJX

— flglmn (@flglmn) December 9, 2023

I could never have predicted that Elon Musk of all people would make an artificial intelligence specifically to torture conservatives. It is the funniest story I've ever seen in tech. https://t.co/gJHPYIQdXP

— Ed Zitron (@edzitron) December 9, 2023

All of the most annoying people on Twitter are having a breakdown since Elon Musk’s AI isn’t transphobic pic.twitter.com/4dsV3ajQYG

— Right Wing Cope (@RightWingCope) December 9, 2023

Neo-Nazi asks Grok questions about far-right propaganda, Grok replies with the truth. Ai has some good things to it pic.twitter.com/kGbFFlElsx

— crear (@crearballs) December 12, 2023

An Elon Musk fan just gave him $16 just to get absolutely roasted by Grok AI, now he’s fuming ?? pic.twitter.com/0e0CBzZ90Y

— Right Wing Cope (@RightWingCope) December 10, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: <em>Grok Is WOKE!!!... </em> 6

Musk is going to kill Grok before the year is done pic.twitter.com/FUyBht3xnT

— Ed Zitron (@edzitron) December 9, 2023

Late Night Open Thread: <em>Grok Is WOKE!!!... </em> 3

Late Night Open Thread: <em>Grok Is WOKE!!!… </em>Post + Comments (41)

War for Ukraine Day 656: President Zelenskyy Goes to Washington

by Adam L Silverman|  December 11, 20238:23 pm| 38 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Art by NEIVANMADE of a Ukrainian painted black and outlined in blood red kneeling in grief with hands covering the face surrounded by the bodies of Ukrainians killed by Russians on a grey background. "Russia Is Committing Genocide Right Now" is across the top center of the image.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Overnight, russia attacked Ukraine with 18 Shaheds and 8 ballistic missiles.
All UAVs and missiles were shot down.
Glory to our air defenders!💪🇺🇦

📸: Air Command “South” (Illustrative photo) pic.twitter.com/QZnOx3I4RC

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 11, 2023

The new wave of 🇷🇺 missile attacks against 🇺🇦 is aimed at really critical civilian infrastructure. They want to collapse normal life in 🇺🇦, and thus the ability and will of society to resist the long term 🇷🇺 aggression. https://t.co/25obL9Iqus

— Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) December 11, 2023

President Zelenskyy travelled to Washington, DC today. While he has a meeting tomorrow with President Biden, today he met with the head of the IMF, a bunch of defense industry CEOs, and gave an address at National Defense University (NDU). NDU is made up of the National War College, the College of International Security Affairs (CISA), The Eisenhower School formerly known as the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF), and several other centers and schools. Here is his address to the faculty, staff, and students. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Freedom must always prevail when challenged – speech by the President of Ukraine at the National Defense University of the United States

11 December 2023 – 22:23

Thank you very much! 

It’s a great honor to be here.

General Plehn – Mr. President of the National Defence University, thank you for your kind words.

I want to start by saying thank you, Secretary Austin. A huge man, a big friend of Ukraine. Thank you for your personal leadership during this time for supporting Ukraine and defending all the free world.

Chairman Brown, thank you for your vision and support.

And special thanks to you, Secretary Del Toro and Secretary Wormuth, for all your invaluable support to the Ukrainian Navy and Army. Thank you very much.

It’s a real honor for me to be and speak here at this University, known for its years of dedication to fine-tuning the defense of freedom. The world not just knows the names of those who’ve studied and taught here; it really feels the impact of the choices they’ve made or the guidance they’ve given as mentors. And if you look at it that way, Ukraine definitely deserves to be here – represented by our brave warriors, our people, and I believe, as equals. Ukraine has left its mark on the world – that’s something you can feel. It’s probably felt most strongly now in Moscow. And it’s going to keep being felt there even more so, until we tackle this enemy of freedom.

Ladies and gentlemen!

In many speeches and lectures given in places like this University, or similar ones, people often talk about “after the collapse of the Berlin Wall”. As soon as you hear that, you get what they’re talking about – the time period, the emotions, the leadership involved. And most importantly, it’s about how freedom spread like ripples in a pond through Central Europe, then Eastern Europe, and across the world.

The world really did change after that wall came down, starting a new era. They said it would be a time when freedom, human rights, democracy, and market economy would lead the way globally. And that wasn’t just talk. Nations that had been under the thumb for so long and could only dream of freedom started walking that path.

But, the ones who used to suppress freedom, they didn’t give up their dreams either.

Since 1989, freedom’s enemies got stronger, trying to turn their annoyance at freedom’s success into a comeback. They channeled funds into terrorism. Stirred up trouble. Spread hate and stoked the fires of local conflicts, trying to turn them into full-blown wars or at least freeze them like incurable tumors, stifling the freedom of nations. They brought back the nuclear scare. Every decade piled on more problems, and not one year in the last thirty-plus years was safe for freedom. 2022 turned out to be the year when one of the biggest enemies of freedom, with its all out, unjust, and unprovoked war, tried to smash everything built up since the Berlin Wall fell.

Russia’s war on Ukraine isn’t just about some old-fashioned dictatorship trying to settle scores, real or imagined. It’s not just Moscow trying to split Europe again. It’s Putin attacking that big shift that happened back in 1989.

He’s fighting Ukraine, but really, he’s up against all of free, united Europe. He’s wrecking everyday life in Ukrainian cities, but his real target is the freedom people enjoy from Warsaw to Chicago to Yokohama. He’s trying to make democratic countries lose hope, pushing the idea that dictatorships with a bit of market economy are winning this global face-off. This isn’t just about competing systems – Russia’s still got the means to mess with democracies worldwide. Putin’s got buddies in this – each one a threat to any free nation, to regional or global order, to human rights and democracy, be it HAMAS, Iran, North Korea or others. No accidents here – they’re all linked by their hate for freedom. Putin’s crafting his own ideology, and at its core is complete disregard for human life, for freedom, and for respecting any kind of borders – between countries, between people, even between truth and lies. He’s spreading this ideology, looking for allies even here in America. His weapon against you right now is propaganda and disinformation, but if he sees a chance, he’ll go further. Now, he’s shifting Russia’s economy and society onto what he calls “war tracks”. Sadly, he’s had time to do this. But the direction of these “war tracks” is clear – I’m sure you see it.

Russia is set on more than just Ukraine’s land, resources, or people. It won’t be satisfied with just a part of Ukraine, or even all of it. Ukraine is just a stepping stone for Russia, a way to act like that old empire that died in 1989, and to challenge the lead of freedom wherever the Russian tsar likes. Putin must lose – so that everyone else, who sees Russia’s war on Ukraine as his personal lecture at the so-called “University of Aggression”, gets the message loud and clear. Putin must lose!

And now, I want to share three points about Ukraine’s impact… The impact I started talking about at the beginning of my speech.

First point.

No matter what some tsars might want, anywhere in the free world you won’t hear phrases like: “after the collapse of Europe” or: “after freedom in Europe has fallen”. Because you’ll never hear: “after the fall of Ukraine”. We’re going to stop Russia right at the start of its global war against freedom. Right where the first front line is – on our land, in our skies, at our sea. Ukraine is the first front. But we’ve got to make sure – and we can make sure! – it doesn’t come to having a second or third front against freedom somewhere in the Baltic countries or another part of the world. When there’s a chance to defend one country’s freedom to avoid fighting in other lands – that’s what should be done. The current generation of free nations should learn from past battles in Europe. The destruction spread by dictatorships is too greedy, and it needs to be stopped right at the start.

I wanted to remind everyone that exactly on this day, December 11th, 82 years ago, the United States – with soldiers, officers, and generals – America’s sons and daughters, just like those present here now – had to join the continental war in Europe. Now, it’s without American boots on European ground defending freedom against Russia’s aggression. American Bradleys and HIMARS, 155-caliber artillery and ATACMS, Patriots, and F-16s can get the job done in Europe, exactly how global freedom needs it. The whole world is watching us, observing what destiny other free nations could face – to live freely or to be subjugated. Ukrainians haven’t given up and won’t give up. We know what to do. You can count on Ukraine, and we hope, just as much, to be able to count on you.

So, my second point is this.

There are two key things – confidence and security. They’re crucial for internal stability in countries and for international peace.

There’s no human community where evil hasn’t tried to take over at some point. Crime and terrorism are threats to any society. Aggressiveness and disrespect for freedom are, unfortunately, found in many parts of the world, and often hatred rules the streets and hearts. And there’s no defense against this, except for these two things – the confidence of those who believe in freedom and the security guaranteed by the defenders of freedom when they come together, cooperate, and uphold rules that are mandatory for everyone.

Together, we must uphold the rule of law, our institutions and alliances that protect democracy and ensure security, including NATO, so that nowhere in the world, not even in the darkest corner of the planet, is there a temptation to think some other order can dominate the world – other than freedom. America and all free nations need to be confident in themselves, in their strength, in their leadership, so that dictatorships doubt themselves and their power to undermine freedom. When the free world hesitates, that’s when dictatorships celebrate, and their most dangerous ambitions ripen.

Every one of you here understands what it means for a soldier to wait for munition. Waiting for weeks, months, without knowing if support will come at all… Every one of you with command experience knows what it means when instead of moving forward you’re just watching, waiting for ammo or equipment – while your enemy is satisfied and preparing for assaults. Any of you with a son or daughter in a combat zone just wouldn’t get it, if they were told that protecting lives could wait because there’s a little more debating. Let me be frank with you, friends. If there’s anyone inspired by unresolved issues on Capitol Hill, it’s just Putin and his sick clique. They see the dreams come true when they see the delays and scandals. They see freedom falling when the support of freedom fighters goes down. People like Putin shouldn’t even hope to conquer freedom. And we can show our children and grandchildren what real confidence is, as was shown to us… To us when in Berlin the great words were spoken: “Tear down this wall”. We need no-less confidence now than President Reagan had then.

I believe this is our common goals – that the security established after 1989 is fully restored and preserved; that freedom, as then, proves that, “when its boundaries expand in one country, freedom for all people expands”; and that next year, in 2024, the aggression of the current enemy of the free world begins to collapse, just like that wall. And we can make it real.

So, moving on to the third point, ladies and gentlemen.

Our actual achievements are something to talk about. Alongside with our partners, we’ve already accomplished more than anyone expected when Russia started this war. Ukraine is in a battle against a nuclear state and one of the biggest armies… But! Despite everything, we have already regained 50 percent of territory that Russia captured at the beginning of this war. God bless our warriors! We’re doing this under conditions where, unfortunately, the air superiority still remains with Russia. We’re building our air shield, including systems like the American “Patriot” which protect our cities from missile attacks. The Ukrainian economy has grown more than five percent this year. It’s not just a miracle; it’s the result of the courage of our warriors, our entire nation, and the crucial support from America, from other global democracies, from our partners. When cities are safe, freedom boosts the economy. We’re working with President Biden, and I am very thankful to him, so that Ukraine and the US can produce weapons together – necessary for protecting freedom. This will make Ukraine a beacon of confidence and security for all of Europe – for our now joint allies and partners. Ukraine won in the Black Sea. Now, the Russian Black Sea fleet is partially destroyed or hiding in remote bays. Thanks to this, we’ve resumed our maritime exports, including food exports, protecting dozens of nations in Africa and Asia from hunger and chaos. Next year, Ukraine will clear more shipping lanes. And by now it is not a secret that Ukraine’s response to Russian barbarism can shake the ground in the heart of Moscow – it’s a proof of our true strength. Plus, Ukraine is reforming its state institutions, even in wartime we’re fixing the system, to start negotiations with the EU about joining. We keep our promises. We make more strength.

Right now, amid fierce battles, our soldiers are holding positions on the front and preparing for further actions. We haven’t let Russia score any victories this year. Yes, Putin tries to create new problems. But our tactic isn’t just about waiting for what Russia will do; not just about adapting to the problems Putin creates; it’s about effectively solving problems – solving! – that’s the key to victory.

Tomorrow, in meetings with President Biden and in Congress, I’ll talk about what results we can achieve next year based on our achievements this year.

By pushing Putin back, we’ll strip his aggression of its meaning. Then he will no longer be able to deceive Russia, as if he personally and his war have a future. Expanding our capabilities in the sky, especially air defense on the front, will remove Russia’s air advantage. That’s solving one of our major problems. Almost no one believed we would win at sea, but now it’s a fact. We have to win the sky too. “Patriots” and electronic warfare, and drones, and jets – all this will help our forces move on the ground as needed. And itʼs crucial that politicians don’t even try to betray the soldiers because, just like weapons are needed for their defense, freedom always requires unity.

I’m confident that freedom can be stronger than any of its enemies. I believe we can be just as effective in defending freedom now as the free world was in 1989. I’m as confident today as I was on February 24th, when I told world leaders – Ukraine will fight, Ukraine will stand. I’m confident that freedom must always prevail when challenged.

I thank you, America, for your support! And I believe that one day at this University, not only those who studied Russia can give lectures, but also Ukrainians who defeated Russia.

Thank you for your attention! 

Cлава Україні!

For those of you marking Advent on your calendars this year.

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 11

Today, we'd like to thank our friends from 🇫🇷 @Armees_Gouv and 🇮🇹@MinisteroDifesa for their unwavering support for Ukraine. We are particularly grateful for strengthening our air defence capabilities with SAMP/T systems.

SAMP/T helps to protect… pic.twitter.com/a2m1rdeJKY

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 11, 2023

Today, we’d like to thank our friends from 🇫🇷 @Armees_Gouv and 🇮🇹 @MinisteroDifesa
for their unwavering support for Ukraine. We are particularly grateful for strengthening our air defence capabilities with SAMP/T systems.

SAMP/T helps to protect key infrastructure objects and save Ukrainian people’s lives. Such systems can shoot down ballistic missiles.

Ukrainian children’s peaceful sleep is protected by our brave air defenders and Weapons of Victory such as SAMP/T.

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

Great Britain:

The UK (@DefenceHQ) and Norway (@Forsvarsdep) will co-lead a new Maritime Capability Coalition. The Coalition will offer a blueprint for the development of 🇺🇦 Navy.

The UK is providing:
◾️2 Sandown Class Mine Counter-Measure Vessels
◾️20 Viking Amphibious vehicles
◾️23 Raiding… https://t.co/w32C6xPRrC

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 11, 2023

The UK (@DefenceHQ) and Norway (@Forsvarsdep) will co-lead a new Maritime Capability Coalition. The Coalition will offer a blueprint for the development of 🇺🇦 Navy.

The UK is providing:
◾️2 Sandown Class Mine Counter-Measure Vessels
◾️20 Viking Amphibious vehicles
◾️23 Raiding craft

We are grateful to our partners for their important contribution to Black Sea security!
🇺🇦🇬🇧🇳🇴

If you’re wondering what Russia is planning and thinking

In Dubai 🇦🇪 I had a couple of conversations with people in the 🇷🇺 security intelligentsia. They were hell bent on continuing the war against 🇺🇦. The minimum objective was described as occupying Odesa and Kharkiv as well, and then some sort of controlled regime in Kyiv.

— Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) December 10, 2023

I'm pretty confident what @carlbildt says about his conversations with people from Russian security agencies in Dubai is true.

I see a million reasons why they'd be obsessed with continuing the war against Ukraine up to the hypotherical taking of Kharkiv and Odesa, and the…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 11, 2023

I’m pretty confident what @carlbildt says about his conversations with people from Russian security agencies in Dubai is true.

I see a million reasons why they’d be obsessed with continuing the war against Ukraine up to the hypotherical taking of Kharkiv and Odesa, and the installment of a puppet regime in Kyiv.

War is the perfect time for skyrocketing careers and for unimaginable embezzlement of gargantuan funds.

Especially when it comes to military & state security mafia.

Especially when it comes to a war that essentially has no clearly stated realistic end goal or timeline.

The Kremlin needs war as such to go on for not admitting their failure in Ukraine — and thousands of jackals are more than happy to reap their profits from this giant venture, a supermassive black hole of money.

At some point, Russia’s war becomes a self-sustaining process in which even the lowest-ranking poor Russians are happy to kill and die for the monthly equivalent of an average American blue-collar salary.

That’s one of the reasons why Russia needs this war to go on until they can’t go on.

 

Kyiv:

How do people choose places to live in Kyiv these days? Opting for a high floor, proximity to energy infrastructure, or a house in the path of Russian missiles and drones is seen as a bad choice. Yet, all precautions don’t guarantee that one morning you won’t wake up to this pic.twitter.com/5y3ofnT3TP

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 11, 2023

Eight ballistic missiles intercepted over Kyiv at 4 am. The air alert started after the initial explosions, indicating the missiles were already detected within the Kyiv region. pic.twitter.com/Bl95Nwme5U

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 11, 2023

Avdiivka direction:

Avdiivka sector, near Pervomaiske village
Briefly, about the intensity and density of enemy shelling

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) December 11, 2023

Some grim reading in Illia Ponomarenko’s reporting from Avdiivka:

pic.twitter.com/RlxRpEbwas

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 11, 2023

I’m with @moas_eu, a medical mission that ensures the evacuation of severely wounded Ukrainian troops in Donbas.

Ambulances rush in and out on the E50 highway in Ukraine’s east, along with endless fuel trucks and tank transporters, day and night.

Doctors, mostly trained Ukrainian anesthesiologists, take the wounded brought from the combat zone and stabilized at rear front outposts.

Avdiivka, the outskirts of Bakhmut… the flow of mutilated soldiers never stops.

The mission is to carry them alive all the way to the Mechnikov Hospital in Dnipro, the eastern front’s key medical facility.

That’s about 200 km along the roads of Donbas and then the highway to Dnipro.

Taking the guys to the big hospital alive is really a form of high art not only by doctors but also by ambulance drivers. There are specific driving modes for specific forms of severe injuries sustained by patients.

The first guy for the afternoon…a policeman. A landmine. The entire left leg ripped off, both arms severely damaged.

The guy is stable, but he requires urgent brain surgery handle.

There’s the strong smell of dried gore inside the vehicle.

Ambulances are pretty narrow. The guy’s severed leg wrapped in plastic rests on the floor just next to my feet and wavers slightly with the car’s movements.

Doctors apparently require that ripped-off limbs arrive at military hospitals along with patients who lost them.

Better just keep cool and don’t think about it.

It’s better to think about the badly wounded trooper and have good hope our docs in Dnipro will get him fixed… after many months of intense treatment, which will be followed by years of recovery and trying to get back to a fulfilling life after war.

Almost all of the MOAS patients are severe.

The last evacuation for my day comes at 4.45 am. Yet another ambulance rushed through the night to Dnipro via Pavlograd.

I look inside the compartment from the front seat next to the driver and feel shivers running down my spine.

The beard, the black curly hair, the body build. The soldier’s damaged eyes are covered with implements. And he looks frighteningly similar to a good friend of mine, a journalist turned military serviceman.

“Nah, he’s not the guy you asked about,” the ambulance’s doc said after he checked the soldier’s papers.

I now look through these pictures and really hope the guy will make it home alive — thanks to those ambulance docs and many others trying to tackle the giant toll of Russia’s abominable war on our country.

And more from Avdiivka:

110th Brigade of Ukraine published a long video about Avdiivka. 13 previously undocumented Russian losses were identified based on that footage: 1xBTR-90; 6xBTR-82A; 1xBTR-80; 1xBMP-2; 2xBMP-1; 1xT-72B3; 1x KAMAZ-63968 "Typhoon-K". https://t.co/FzSGbb6zi1https://t.co/u4ZFS4UjZ0 pic.twitter.com/kFpqoF2e97

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 11, 2023

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Accumulation of destroyed Russian transport vehicles, as said by FPV drones. Left bank Kherson region. https://t.co/i0p8ZTCAtc pic.twitter.com/gmGu4HI1G0

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 11, 2023

Tatarigami has a new assessment across multiple fronts.

The current frontline dynamics reveal active attempts by Russian forces, particularly in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction, as well as the northern and southern areas of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mariinka to improve their tactical situation.

Despite lacking overwhelming advantages and… pic.twitter.com/8YiUecm3sq

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) December 11, 2023

The current frontline dynamics reveal active attempts by Russian forces, particularly in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction, as well as the northern and southern areas of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mariinka to improve their tactical situation.

Despite lacking overwhelming advantages and facing constraints in offensive capabilities, Frontelligence Insight anticipates that Russian forces might be able to achieve partial success in reducing the gains made by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the summer and fall campaigns.

Frontelligence Insight also has acquired documents indicating that Russia has created Storm-V units. According to these documents, units will predominantly consist of fit-for-service convicts who have signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense. The recruitment priority for Storm-V is set for the Airborne Troops (VDV), although it appears that some motor rifle units will also incorporate Storm-V units. Presently, it remains unclear how these units differ from the existing Storm-Z companies.

Avdiivka

The overall situation for the Ukrainian forces has stabilized, as the Russian offensive appears to have reached its peak. Russian forces have lost eager to assault and the number of operational equipment has been severely reduced. Russians were also unable to develop their success in the industrial zone, south of Avdiivka.

At the same time, the logistical situation in Avdiivka has worsened for Ukrainian forces. Reports confirm that Russian forces are employing FPV drones with thermal/night vision cameras, complicating nighttime supply efforts. As a result, logistical challenges are persistent, despite the overall military situation stabilizing.

Mari’nka

The situation in Mari’nka is critical. Although specific details cannot be disclosed, our analysis indicates that the fall of Mari’nka is likely a matter of time. The collapse of Mari’nka can create operational opportunities for Russian forces toward Kurakhove and Vuhledar. If Russians will force Vuheldar defenders to retreat, they will be able to restore a crucial logistical railroad line, significantly reducing transportation times and enabling more mobile movements of units.

Bakhmut area

In the Bakhmut area, challenges persist as Russian forces continue to have limited and localized successes near Khromove and Klischiivka. While the majority of their attacks have been successfully repelled with incurred losses, the overall outlook is less than optimistic. There is a potential risk that Ukrainian defenders may cede some previously gained positions from the summer-fall campaign. Given the current circumstances, the likelihood of a substantial breakthrough or a collapse is low at the moment.

Spirne

In the Spirne area, for the past week, Russians continued to launch assaults with small tactical groups, experiencing losses without achieving any tangible results. The overall situation appears to be stable in this area of the frontline.

Lyman-Kupyansk area

Russian forces persist in pressing both the Lyman and Kupyansk directions. Currently, their efforts have not yielded significant results, and they have incurred tangible losses. Our analysis indicates that Russia currently views this direction as secondary. Despite this, continuous assaults persist in the Lyman and Kupyansk directions. If Russians find success in the Bakhmut area, we anticipate a potential intensification of pressure in the Lyman and Kupyansk directions.

Summary

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are facing challenges entering the harsh winter season, marked by a scarcity of artillery ammunition, fatigue following an extensive summer-fall campaign, the withholding of aid by the US Congress, and failure to deliver the necessary amount of ammo by European partners, among other factors. Despite the overall unfavorable situation for the AFU, we assess that Russian forces are unlikely to execute another army-level assault. Drawing insights from experience in Avdiivka, where substantial commitments of armored and infantry units yielded limited gains, we do not anticipate significant breakthroughs or defense collapses in the near term.

Given the present disposition and allocation of Russian resources, there is a likelihood of observing battalion, brigade, and corps-level operations aimed at enhancing tactical situations and reclaiming lost positions from the summer and fall of 2023. The success of these operations, if executed without depleting the newly formed units, could potentially set the stage for a larger spring offensive in 2024.

Despite the apparent grimness, the reality remains that Russian forces are unlikely to achieve a critical strategic shift in the war during the upcoming winter or even the spring. However, this does not diminish the urgency for both Ukraine and its allies to implement decisive measures to gain the upper hand.

If you find this analysis valuable, whether it’s positive or negative, please consider liking and sharing it. The visibility of the Ukrainian frontline coverage has decreased on the X. Our team, Frontelligence Insight, is actively involved in two significant projects. One of them, featuring satellite evidence showcasing the destruction of several hundred Russian vehicles in Avdiivka, will be released this week. Your support is appreciated; you can contribute via BuyMeaCoffee, linked in my bio, as we tackle multiple projects simultaneously and genuinely need your assistance.

The Polish-Ukrainian border:

The Polish-Ukrainian border is getting unblocked right now.
Let's hope (and work for it!) that this becomes the beginning of the end of the rough patch we’re going through in this war.
We now pray for the U.S. Congress to make a historic decision and get back to what's right…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 11, 2023

The Polish-Ukrainian border is getting unblocked right now.
Let’s hope (and work for it!) that this becomes the beginning of the end of the rough patch we’re going through in this war.
We now pray for the U.S. Congress to make a historic decision and get back to what’s right soon.

 

For you logistics enthusiasts:

⚡️ VERIFIED TANK LOSSES – NOV 2023

Of the 5,551 tank losses indicated by Ukrainian field reports at the end of November, the @WarSpotting team has been able to verify 38% or 2,088 so far.

Overall, tanks made during the Soviet era are 49% of the verified losses, but 59% when we… pic.twitter.com/oNozOVCDDI

— Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) December 10, 2023

⚡️ VERIFIED TANK LOSSES – NOV 2023

Of the 5,551 tank losses indicated by Ukrainian field reports at the end of November, the @WarSpotting team has been able to verify 38% or 2,088 so far.

Overall, tanks made during the Soviet era are 49% of the verified losses, but 59% when we look at November.

See dashboard and the feed of @verekerrichard1 for further analysis.

#Ukraine

📈 https://lookerstudio.google.com/s/hgKZSiAqOcQ

 

Shaheds & Lancets. Who helps 🇷🇺 to produce drones@molfar_agency discovered that companies from 70 countries (United States, Britain, Taiwan, China) supply thousands of components for 🇷🇺 drones.

An American Allied Mineral Products operates in the Alabuga (🇷🇺 assembles Shaheds) pic.twitter.com/FnSKjcmFeQ

— Molfar (@molfar_agency) December 11, 2023

Also, @molfar_agency identified that while the designer of the Lancet drone, Alexander Zakharov, was making lethal weapons, his son worked at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament.

And Zakharov's closest relatives own luxury properties in Europe.https://t.co/KYnLP4pZMf pic.twitter.com/L1zLex6sE1

— Molfar (@molfar_agency) December 11, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

A Ukrainian defender and his combat cat "Shprits" (Syringe).
The furry friend not only adds comfort but also hunts mice.

📸: 118th @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/cIfEmBJHdI

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 11, 2023

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 656: President Zelenskyy Goes to WashingtonPost + Comments (38)

Monday Evening Open Thread: Project Veritas CEO Jumps Ship

by Anne Laurie|  December 11, 20236:49 pm| 129 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Republican Venality

Project Veritas CEO Hannah Giles, who replaced right-wing activist James O'Keefe earlier this year, says she's quitting the group after discovering "evidence of past illegality and past financial improprieties" that she's given to law enforcement. https://t.co/NXJSJvdaBF

— Will Sommer (@willsommer) December 11, 2023

Giles was okay with serving as JOKeIII’s minion, and happy to take over when the board got too nosy about Jim’s expenses, but she is *not* going to jail for him. Per CNN, “Project Veritas CEO quits, citing ‘strong evidence of past illegality and past financial improprieties’”:

Hannah Giles, the chief executive of Project Veritas, said Monday she has stepped down from her role at the right-wing group “effective immediately,” after discovering evidence that the organization has engaged in “past illegalities.”

“Though I had high hopes when I joined the organizations, I stepped into an unsalvageable mess — one wrought with strong evidence of past illegality and past financial improprieties,” Giles wrote in a post on X. “Once such evidence was discovered, I brought the information to the appropriate law enforcement agencies.”…

Giles was appointed to the top job in June 2023, four months after the organization’s previous chief executive, O’Keefe, was ousted from the group.

The removal of O’Keefe from the nonprofit organization that he founded came after an internal memo signed by members of the staff and presented to the group’s board alleged that O’Keefe was “outright cruel” to his employees. Project Veritas later said James “spent an excessive amount of donor funds” on “personal luxuries,” including $150,000 in black car services and a chartered flight.

In August, the Westchester County, New York, district attorney’s office announced it was investigating the allegations against O’Keefe.

O’Keefe has set up another, less visible to normies ratf*cking op-shop already, but I haven’t been able to find much information about its exploits — which, I assume, means it’s not doing all that well. Seeing him indicted for financial crimes would be a nice year-end present, even if ACORN can never be resurrected.

Monday Evening Open Thread: Project Veritas CEO Jumps ShipPost + Comments (129)

Jack Smith Is Not Messing Around -> Straight to the Supreme Court

by WaterGirl|  December 11, 20233:10 pm| 209 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Trump Indictments

Not a slow news day today!

DC Indictment News

BREAKING: Jack SMITH has gone straight to SCOTUS on the question of presidential immunity for Donald Trump’s Washington, D.C. charges and he’s seeking to expedite the matter. The petition:https://t.co/g8EMllnhDe

— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) December 11, 2023

.

BREAKING: Explaining ⬇️the Smith filing seeking direct Supreme Court review now of the presidential immunity/double jeopardy Trump claims, so as to preserve the March 4 trial date. https://t.co/cbqUZcTJlK

— Andrew Weissmann (weissmann11 on Threads)🌻 (@AWeissmann_) December 11, 2023

DOJ could’ve played it passive, and tried to suggest to the court that it didn’t need to take up the immunity issue. But it realized that was a longshot and not candid besides; so they very smartly decided to jump the gun.

— Harry Litman (@harrylitman) December 11, 2023

Petition to the Supreme Court

Jack Smith Is Not Messing Around -> Straight to the Supreme CourtPost + Comments (209)

The Retail Crime Wave That Wasn’t

by Betty Cracker|  December 11, 202312:01 pm| 171 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics

Remember all the ooga-booga scaremongering about organized retail crime (ORC) this summer and fall? Con-media outlets ran breathless reports on an alarming rise in organized retail theft, usually accompanied by video of group smash-and-grab attacks on stores.

These reports were and probably still are a staple on Fox News and its con-media imitators. The implication being that rampant crime is part of everyday life in Joe Biden’s America, where liberal governments and prosecutors coddle criminals, unleashing chaos.

It wasn’t just liars and propagandists on right-leaning media. More respectable outlets like AP, CNN, the WaPo editorial page, Fortune, etc., also ran with the story. Well, it turns out it was all bullshit.

Smash-and-grab incidents do happen and have always happened, but the ballyhooed retail crime wave this year didn’t. This Popular Information report traces the crime panic back to a single source who was irresponsibly cited by multiple outlets.

The source was an executive who led an outfit called National Coalition of Law Enforcement and Retail (CLEAR), which sounds suspiciously like an organization that would have a vested interest in perceptions about retail crime. He offered a wildly inaccurate interpretation of outdated statistics in a hearing. An excerpt from PI’s report:

The citation for the “research” by the National Coalition of Law Enforcement and Retail (CLEAR) was actually a 2021 Congressional testimony by Brendan Dugan, then-President of CLEAR. Dugan testified that “CLEAR estimates that organized retail crime accounts for $45 billion in annual losses for retailers.” But in a recent interview with RetailDive, Dugan admitted that CLEAR did not conduct any research on ORC. Instead, Dugan was referring to the NRF’s estimate for total shrink from 2016.

The panic didn’t just play out in the media. As PI reports, lawmakers from both parties ran with that bullshit stat and crafted policy to combat the nonexistent ORC hordes. Naturally Republicans, including Trump, took it several steps further, using the phony stat to threaten violence.

Of course, none of this is shocking from con-media outlets. The Murdoch Cinematic Universe takes every opportunity to scare the shit out of its recliner-bound shut-ins because the more angry and afraid people are, the more willing they become to empower fascist blowhard Republicans.

But it’s alarming that mainstream outlets fell for this horseshit from one person from that particular organization. Would reporters swallow claims about the negative health effects of consuming butter at face value if they came from the “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter” people? Maybe!

It’s a shame because there were lots of important issues to cover this summer and fall instead of this ORC hooey. Like Orange Sauron’s increasingly unhinged fascist rhetoric. Or maybe women losing access to 21st century healthcare in the wake of the Dobbs decision. That they ran with the fake crime panic instead is a tell about priorities, and it’s rarely democracy and almost never women.

Open thread.

The Retail Crime Wave That Wasn’tPost + Comments (171)

Monday Morning Open Thread: The Reason for the Season

by Anne Laurie|  December 11, 20237:33 am| 178 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Religion, Vice-President Harris

Credit where due to this Iowa Republican standing up to criticism of the leg for following its policy and allowing a 14 day Satanist display on the grounds, as they do with other religions. https://t.co/wOwxSVgXyc

— David Burbach (also @dburbach Bluesky) (@dburbach) December 10, 2023


Rep. Pastor Dunwell has indeed done well. Full text of his (very long) message at the bottom of this post. (Needless to say, the ‘good Christian’ responses to his message make it clear that for many among the Jesus Flock, it’s not about actually professing the tenets of their faith, it’s about demanding *everyone else* bend the knee.)
 
Elsewhere…

For 25 years, the International Space Station has impacted our view of Earth and who we are. It has served as a lesson in international cooperation and the importance of taking action to care for our planet.

Happy birthday, @Space_Station! pic.twitter.com/RaccWeQ4I6

— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) December 10, 2023

BREAKING NEWS: Vice President Kamala Harris is now the sole record holder for most tie breaking votes cast by any Vice President in US History! https://t.co/qwdey65oX7

— That Unhinged Biden Guy (@What46HasDone) December 5, 2023

show full post on front page

Bingo. "Elections in my democratic country are pointless" is a self-fulfilling prophecy that baffles those of us from authoritarian regimes where our votes, when they existed at all, really were worthless. https://t.co/C1ulAYhTZl

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) December 5, 2023

Speaking of Iowa…

2024 Primary schedule (Jan. & Feb.)

We are only 37 days away from the Republican Iowa caucus. pic.twitter.com/syomKJOn4d

— Candidly Tiff (@tify330) December 9, 2023

Monday Morning Open Thread 7
Monday Morning Open Thread 8
Monday Morning Open Thread 9
Monday Morning Open Thread 9

Monday Morning Open Thread: The Reason for the SeasonPost + Comments (178)

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