(Image by My Dog Sighs)
A quick housekeeping note. First, everyone is most welcome for the posts. I wish I didn’t have to do them and will be very happy when they are no longer necessary. Second, let’s not be diagnosing people we don’t know based on how one interprets what they’re writing on the internet. Especially when you’re pseudonymous and unlikely to be actually qualified to make said diagnoses. I do not want to have to address this point again.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We are working as hard as possible with partners to enhance Ukrainian air defense – address by the President of Ukraine
8 December 2023 – 21:22
Dear Ukrainians, I wish good health to all of you!
First of all, I want to commend our defenders in the sky – during the missile strike this morning, a significant portion of Russian missiles were successfully intercepted. However, not all. Missiles hit Kharkiv and also Dnipropetrovsk region. Necessary assistance has been provided to all those affected. One person was killed. My condolences to the family and friends. We are working as hard as possible with partners to enhance Ukrainian air defense. We keep working now – almost every week brings new arrangements and opportunities for Ukraine. This Russian regime repeats the evil it has already done but tries to make each strike more painful. We are aware of this. And I thank everyone who defends Ukraine from Shahed drones, who repels Russian missile strikes, our intelligence, and every partner who has made a decision to support the Ukrainian air defense and impose sanctions against the state-terrorist that can truly limit it. Let those in Russia not doubt: everyone – from terrorists to terror propagandists – they will all be held accountable. For every strike.
I held a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting. As always, the Commander-in-Chief and each sector commanders reported on the operational situation. Kupiansk, Lyman, and all Donetsk directions, south. I thank all the soldiers and commanders for their resilience and valor. The task of our state – even now, in winter, no matter how difficult it may be – is to show strength and not let the enemy seize the initiative, not let them fortify. I thank everyone whose actions ensure this for Ukraine – our ability to make our moves. Today, I want to particularly commend the soldiers who have shown themselves the most – now, and in battles in winter and this autumn.
The 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade – Soldier Andriy Minasov. Thank you, soldier, for your effectiveness! The 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade – Soldier Ivan Kovalchuk and Senior Soldier Vitaliy Liubchyk. Thank you, guys, for your precision! The 68th Separate Hunting Brigade – Junior Sergeant Roman Petliar. Thank you! The 92nd Separate Storm Brigade – Soldier Pavlo Kissa. Thank you for your bravery, soldier! The 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade – Junior Sergeant Maxim Ombysh. Thank you for your valor and for preserving the lives of your comrades! The 26th Separate Artillery Brigade – Chief Sergeant Oleksandr Fedorchuk. Thank you for destroying the occupant! The 25th Separate Airborne Brigade – Sergeant Andriy Zhuravliov, aerial reconnaissance specialist. Thank you! The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade – Junior Sergeants Yuriy Sviatenko and Dmytro Semennyk. Together, they eliminated the enemy sabotage group near Avdiivka Plant. Well done! The 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade – Junior Sergeant Roman Lutsenko. Thank you for powerful combat results! The 704th Separate Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Defense Regiment – Senior Soldier Marian Portsina. Thank you for your bravery, soldier, for the kind of bravery that has become a symbol of Ukrainian defense.
Today, I spoke with the Prime Minister of Estonia – both about preserving the support for Ukraine from partners in general and about very specific things that our state and our soldiers need to achieve necessary results. I am grateful for the understanding and assistance.
Of course, we also discussed the issue of European Union unity – especially in the context of opening negotiations with Ukraine regarding EU accession. Ukraine is fulfilling all its commitments, as we have proven on multiple occasions. Today, by the way, Ukrainian parliament passed the necessary laws in line with the recommendations of the European Commission in fighting graft and regarding the rights of national minorities. We have taken into account the conclusions of the Venice Commission – specifically regarding national communities. We expect that Ukraine’s efforts will be properly assessed by EU leaders, and the corresponding European promises to Ukraine will be fulfilled. We had seven recommendations – we did everything expected of us by December.
We continue our active foreign policy work to bring gains for Ukraine in defense, macrofinance, and political and motivational strength. Anyone defending freedom needs to feel that they are not alone. The free world must be united. And to truly succeed, Ukraine must be a donor of unity. Every step in our foreign policy is aimed at this. In particular, today in Kyiv, the first meeting of participants of our new international coalition for the return of children deported to Russia from temporarily occupied territory took place. We unite states, international organizations, civic leaders from different countries, and legal experts for the liberation of children. I thank everyone who has already joined this effort, those who are already ensuring concrete legal results, including warrants from the International Criminal Court regarding Russian officials, and of course, everyone whose mediation and influence help bring children home to Ukraine.
And one more thing.
Our intelligence and diplomats continue the evacuation of Ukrainian citizens from the Gaza Strip. The entire day today is dedicated to bringing our people to a safe territory. Almost 40 Ukrainian citizens are now safe. Thank you to Defense Intelligence, thank you to our diplomats, and thank you to our friends in the region.
Glory to all who fight and work for Ukraine and Ukrainians! Glory to our powerful nation!
Glory to Ukraine!
For those of you marking Advent on your calendars this season:
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1733477635592790027
Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 9
Today, we express our gratitude to our Czech friends from @ObranaTweetuje for their comprehensive support since the beginning of the russian invasion. We are especially grateful for DANA self-propelled artillery systems.
Every shell fired from DANA artillery system brings Ukrainian victory closer and destroys the enemy. DANA can quickly target and hit an enemy target.
Stay tuned for new Weapons of Victory!
The hits keep on coming for Ukraine. We start with The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was blunt when he addressed G7 leaders this week.
“Russia hopes only for one thing: that next year the free world’s consolidation will collapse. Russia believes that America and Europe will show weakness, and will not maintain support for Ukraine,” he said in a video call on Wednesday evening with his most important political allies.
“The free world vitally needs to . . . maintain support for those whose freedom is being attacked,” he said. “Ukraine has strength. And I ask you to be as strong as you can be.”
Zelenskyy’s plea is not mere rhetoric. Hours after he spoke, the US Senate rejected the White House’s latest bid to pass legislation authorising $60bn in financial support for Ukraine. Across the Atlantic, a European Commission proposal that would provide €50bn to prop up Kyiv’s budget for the next four years hangs in the balance ahead of a summit of EU leaders next week, following months of bickering between member states over how to fund it.
Without one of those finance packages being approved, Ukraine’s long-term financial security would be in question. With neither, its future would be grim.
At a moment when Ukraine is desperate for long-term financial and military commitments as a bulwark against prolonged Russian aggression, its two most important backers have been found wanting, raising doubts over the west’s resolve.
“We need to provide clarity for Ukraine financing for the next year and coming years . . . the matter is definitely urgent,” Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commission executive vice-president, tells the FT. “Russia is already a war economy,” he says, warning that the EU must not “lose focus on support for Ukraine.”
In the EU’s case, it is not only financial support that is at risk. The bloc was supposed to act as the anchor for Ukraine’s western integration with the prospect, eventually, of Ukrainian membership. An EU agreement to start accession negotiations would give Kyiv a much-needed political victory over Moscow after a year of military disappointments — but Hungary has vowed to block it.
Most unsettling for Kyiv is that support for Ukraine, once a matter of broad cross-party consensus, has become a political bargaining chip on both sides of the Atlantic.
“Ukraine is no longer special. It is no longer regarded as this issue of national security, of paramount importance for the EU, Nato, or the United States. Because if that was the case, people wouldn’t be playing politics with it,” says Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels.
“It is a devaluation of the Ukrainian war effort. There is no other way to put it, in my opinion. And that, for Ukraine, is a terrible situation,” Kirkegaard adds. “If you’re Vladimir Putin, you’re saying, well, my strategic decision to try to hold on longer than the west is working.”
The financial pressures facing Ukraine are immense — and relentless. The government uses all of its tax revenues to cover defence spending — amounting to about half of its public expenditure. While Ukraine has received nearly $100bn worth of weapons and military training, it also needs foreign aid to pay for the government, public services, pensions and benefits. This requires $41bn in external financing next year, according to the budget passed by parliament last month.
It was counting on $18bn from the EU, $8.5bn from the US, $5.4bn from the IMF, $1.5bn from other development banks and $1bn from the UK. Kyiv is still negotiating with other partners, such as Japan and Canada.
Although some of the required money will be paid whatever happens in Washington or Brussels, Kyiv needs cash to start flowing next month. If it fails to come through and Kyiv cannot borrow enough domestically, it may have to resort to monetary financing by the central bank, which could unleash hyperinflation and put financial stability at risk.
Hence its alarm at the impasse in the EU and US. In Brussels, Hungary has vowed to block all support lines in part as leverage to force the EU to release cash payments to Budapest frozen due to rule of law violations.
But the Pentagon has already started to ration US funding for Ukraine, which is expected to run out by the end of the month.
“We’ve gone to the bare bones of what we can provide . . . there’s no money,” says Bergmann.
White House officials and senior Democrats are still holding out hope for a deal on Ukraine funding, but their fears and warnings about the impact of a possible lapse have grown increasingly strident. They are not just worried about the immediate impact on Ukraine, but about what the failure to aid Kyiv will tell the world about US leadership.
“We know from intelligence community assessments that Putin believes Ukraine will fall within just months without renewed US support,” Mark Warner, the chair of the Senate intelligence committee, said this week. “Why, at this moment in time, would we prove Putin right?”
“We cannot allow dysfunction in the halls of Congress to prevent the United States from fulfilling our moral obligation to fund Ukraine,” Michael Bennet, a Colorado Democratic senator, tells the FT in an emailed statement. “If we can’t get our act together, it will send a horrible message to Putin,” he adds.
More at the link.
As I’ve repeatedly written, Putin’s strategy has been to create time for his genocidal re-invasion to become a fait accompli. To do so he has created a global food crisis, which has both spiked food costs, contributed to global inflation, and created a 2002-2023 version of the refugee crisis he created in 2012-2016. He also, with the aid of his ally Mohammed bin Salman, created an artificial spike in the price of oil, thereby creating an increase in the cost of gas in the US, as well as contributing to global inflation. All of this is intended to bring his proxies in the Europe into office to hamstring the EU and NATO. It is also intended to bring his, as well as his other neo-fascist allies’ (Orban, Erdogan, Bibi, MBS, MBZ) preferred candidate back into power in the US: Trump. Achieving either of these, let alone both, will set the conditions for him to quickly prevail in Ukraine. Reconsolidate, refit and resupply, and then begin again against his next target. Which will be an EU and NATO target.
White House officials and senior Democrats can hope all they want. Hope is not a strategy. And the strategy they had been pursuing has failed.
Putin’s economy, despite the sanctions, is on a war footing. Ours is not. Not a single EU or NATO member state’s is. Putin knows we have no authority or funding left to give anything more to Ukraine once the stuff on the way arrives. He will increase his nightly bombardments not to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense, but to deplete it. By the end of January, all those Patriot batteries and similar weapons systems will be stationary targets because they will be out of ammunition. And Putin will have his forces blow them up so that even if somehow a new supplemental aid package for Ukraine passes, there won’t be any of them left when the ammunition resupply finally arrives.
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1733540128675496321
Putin doesn’t care how bad the ammunition and equipment is.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733371358443151581
He doesn’t care that his soldiers are eating snow to try to survive:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1733097023170089204
He doesn’t care that their corpses are stacked like cordwood or lie strewn on the ground outside Avdiivka, because he’s got an almost limitless supply of bodies to spare. I’m not posting the videos or imagery.
He will spill as much blood and spend as much treasure as it takes because he has far more blood and treasure than the Ukrainians do. Though the Ukrainians will spill all of theirs because they are unwilling to live under Putin’s domination.
Microsoft brings us the details of another major portion of Putin’s strategy to undermine support for Ukraine while increasing the chances for his preferred candidates and proxies to come to power.
Since July 2023, Russia-aligned influence actors have tricked celebrities into providing video messages that were then used in pro-Russian propaganda. These videos were then manipulated to falsely paint Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a drug addict. This is one of the insights in the latest biannual report on Russian digital threats from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center: “Russian Threat Actors Dig In, Prepare to Seize on War Fatigue”
As described in more detail in the report, this campaign aligns with the Russian government’s broader strategic efforts during the period from March to October 2023, across cyber and influence operations (IO), to stall Ukrainian military advances and diminish support for Kyiv.
Video messages from American celebrities are used in Russian propaganda
Unwitting American actors and others appear to have been asked, likely via video message platforms such as Cameo, to send a message to someone called “Vladimir”, pleading with him to seek help for substance abuse. The videos were then modified to include emojis, links and sometimes the logos of media outlets and circulated through social media channels to advance longstanding false Russian claims that the Ukrainian leader struggles with substance abuse. The Microsoft Threat Analysis Center has observed seven such videos since late July 2023, featuring personalities such as Priscilla Presley, musician Shavo Odadjian and actors Elijah Wood, Dean Norris, Kate Flannery, and John McGinley.
Prigozhin’s death has not slowed Russia’s influence operations
The August 2023 death of Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who owned the Wagner Group and the infamous Internet Research Agency troll farm, led many to question the future of Russia’s influence and propaganda capabilities. However, since then, Microsoft has observed widespread influence operations by Russian actors that are not linked to Prigozhin, indicating that Russia has the capacity to continue prolific and sophisticated malign influence operations without him.
Russia’s seasonal focus switched to degrade Ukrainian agriculture
Just as the past winter saw Russia focus on creating an energy crisis and attacking Ukraine’s energy sector, so this summer saw a convergence of Russian kinetic, cyber, and propaganda attacks on Ukraine’s agriculture sector. During the warmer growing and harvest months, Russia penetrated agribusinesses, stole data, deployed malware, and used military strikes to destroy grain that reportedly could have fed one million people for a year.[1] Microsoft’s report shows a strong alignment among its military, propaganda, and cyberattack efforts. For example, in a four-day period in late July 2023, following Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia:
- Attacked agricultural facilities in Odessa with 10 cruise missiles
- Launched a cyberattack on a Ukrainian agricultural equipment organization
- Disseminated false narratives in pro-Russian media outlets claiming, in one example, that Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO were abusing the grain corridor for terrorist purposes not humanitarian aid
It remains to be seen if this winter will see Russia revert to its seasonal focus on the Ukrainian energy sector. However, in September 2023, the Government Computer Emergency Response Team of Ukraine (CERT-UA) announced that Ukrainian energy networks were under sustained threat and Microsoft Threat Intelligence has observed artifacts of Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) threat activity on Ukrainian energy sector networks from August through October 2023.
Russian cyberespionage prioritized war crimes investigations, governmental bodies, and think tanks
Russian authorities have not only been accused of war crimes, but have directed cyber resources to target the criminal investigators and prosecutors building cases against them. There is mounting tension between Moscow and organizations like the International Criminal Court (ICC), which issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on war crimes charges in March 2023. Actors linked to Russian military and foreign intelligence breached Ukrainian legal and investigative networks and a law firm working on war crimes investigations as part of a wider effort that targeted global diplomatic, defense, public policy, and IT organizations. One of those threat actors, aligned to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR)and that we call Midnight Blizzard, has pursued access to more than 240 organizations since March 2023, predominantly in the U.S., Canada and European countries. Nearly 40% of the targeted organizations were governments, inter-governmental organizations, or policy-focused think tanks.
Russia shifted anti-Ukraine messaging to U.S., Israel
Sophisticated Russia-affiliated influence actor Storm-1099 (best known for a mass-scale website forgery operation dubbed “Doppelganger” by research group EU DisinfoLab) has been targeting international supporters of Ukraine since Spring 2022. The group creates unique, branded outlets such as the Reliable News Network (RNN) and stokes on-the-ground demonstrations, bridging the digital and physical worlds through amplification of these events. Despite efforts by technology companies and research entities to report on and mitigate its reach, Storm-1099 remains fully active. It has historically targeted Western European countries, especially Germany, but has now shifted focus to Israel and the U.S., reflecting an increased prioritization of content on the Israel-Hamas war, U.S. political themes, and the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Storm-1099 assets pushed the false claim that Hamas acquired Ukrainian weapons on the black market for its October 7 attack on Israel. Elsewhere, Russian-affiliated media pushed the false narrative that foreign recruits, including Americans, were transferred from Ukraine to join IDF forces in Gaza.
In late October 2023, French authorities suspected four Moldovan nationals of painting graffiti of the Star of David in public spaces in Paris, images of which were then amplified by Storm-1099 assets. Two of the Moldovans reportedly claimed that they were directed by a Russian-speaking individual, suggesting possible Russian responsibility for the incident, which strongly aligns with Russia’s Active Measures playbook. Russia likely assesses that the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is to its geopolitical advantage, as it believes the conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian military infrastructure and defense partners remain key targets
Since Russian forces launched their spring 2023 offensive in Ukraine, Russian intelligence-affiliated cyber actors have concentrated their efforts on intelligence collection from Ukrainian communications and military infrastructure in combat zones, and from Ukraine’s partners. One actor, that we call Forest Blizzard, attempted to gain initial access to defense organizations via phishing messages that incorporated novel and evasive techniques. For example, in August, Forest Blizzard sent a phishing email to accountholders at a European defense organization.
Looking forward
Ukraine’s military chief has suggested the war with Russia is moving to a new stage of static trench warfare, protracting the conflict further. Russian cyber and influence operators will aim to demoralize the Ukrainian population and degrade Kyiv’s external sources of military and financial assistance, along with possible winter attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector.
Elsewhere, the 2024 U.S. presidential election and other major political contests give malign influence actors an opportunity to degrade support for Ukraine-supporting political candidates. To date, Russian threat actors and propagandists have not demonstrated sophisticated capabilities leveraging or integrating artificial intelligence (AI) tools into influence operations. However, Microsoft continues to monitor this area closely.
Microsoft is working across multiple fronts to protect our customers in Ukraine and worldwide from these multifaceted threats. With our Secure Future Initiative, we are integrating advances in AI-driven cyberdefense and secure software engineering, with efforts to fortify international norms to protect civilians from cyber threats. In the elections space, we are deploying resources across a core set of principles to safeguard voters, candidates, campaigns, and election authorities worldwide, as more than two billion people prepare to engage in the democratic process over the coming year.
Imagery at the link!
I’m going to be very, very blunt here: we DO NOT have an answer to what Russia is doing in the Information Domain. And that is all I will say on that other than our failure to understand it and respond to it appropriately not only puts Ukraine at great risk, it places the US, the EU member states, and our other allies at great risk. Great risk here should be understood as existential risk.
Before anyone asks in the comments: I do not believe in hope and I lost what little faith I had a long time ago.
Always believe in Christmas Miracle.
Ukrainian defenders do so!📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/iw0G9bNWM2
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 9, 2023
If there is a miracle in Ukraine this winter, it will be because the Ukrainians force it into existence with their blood, sweat, and tears. Unless the Baltic states and/or Poland decide to commit their forces regardless of what the EU or NATO wants, Ukraine is now on its own.
I think this is the Christmas tree erected on the side of the road on the outskirts of Bakhmut:
https://twitter.com/Inside_the_AFU/status/1733482906390028725
Serebryansky Forest, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
Serebryansky forest, Luhansk region
— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) December 9, 2023
Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Magyar’s Birds will fight till they are out of drones.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1733450676540240138
Russian losses in Krynky area, Kherson region. 09/12/2023.
Video by Birds of Magyar unit. https://t.co/8CvI65TYkD pic.twitter.com/Ef4B5zQ1xe— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 9, 2023
But there is only so much that can be achieved by Magyar and his team.
Avdiivka:
If you wonder what US aid means to the Ukrainians, this is a good explainer:
Ukrainians on the importance of Bradley M2A2. pic.twitter.com/2Pa9fedMr9
— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) December 9, 2023
Russian combatant-volunteer Filatov on Telegram continues covering the FPV war in Avdiivka, and specifically mentions that Russian MoD prioritises targets that will create "nice content for social media". Recently, he says, it resulted in the death of a promising commander called… pic.twitter.com/AXqiPvt8hT
— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) December 9, 2023
Russian combatant-volunteer Filatov on Telegram continues covering the FPV war in Avdiivka, and specifically mentions that Russian MoD prioritises targets that will create “nice content for social media”. Recently, he says, it resulted in the death of a promising commander called “X” and his subordinates when they attempted to assault a building with pinned-down Ukrainians, but were taken apart by Ukrainian FPVs and, later, a tank.
Destruction of a Russian ground transport drone by a Ukrainian FPV kamikaze drone. Avdiivka front.https://t.co/s2Eutt3J5R pic.twitter.com/XkPvG0QzlS
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 9, 2023
Makiivka, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:
Strike on Russian oil depot in Makiivka, near Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/91vM8YcBCd
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 9, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here’s some adjacent(ish) material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
The spirit of Christmas.
📷: @Liberov pic.twitter.com/Zlgodt3Bri
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 9, 2023
War for Ukraine Day 654: The Hits Keep on ComingPost + Comments (67)
