We discussed mobilizing resources for fortification works: the priority is clear – address by the President of Ukraine

30 November 2023 – 20:58

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I have just held two important meetings in Zaporizhzhia. An operational one with the military, with Generals Tarnavskyi, Moskaliov, Litvinov and all those responsible for defense here in Zaporizhzhia region. The second meeting was actually a nationwide meeting on fortifications. In all major areas where we need to boost and accelerate the construction of structures.

Of course, these are primarily Avdiivka, Maryinka and other areas in Donetsk region that will receive maximum attention. Kharkiv region – the direction of Kupyansk, as well as the Kupyansk – Lyman defense line. The entire Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, and Volyn regions, as well as the south – Kherson region. There were reports from regional authorities, all the relevant military commanders. Defense Minister Umerov, General Pavliuk. We discussed the mobilization of resources, the motivation of private business in this work, and financing. The priority is obvious. I am grateful to everyone working on this kind of construction, in the production of materials. We also discussed the needs that we will address with our partners to reinforce our defense lines. Special attention is paid to the construction of shelters in schools, in particular here in Zaporizhzhia and the region, so that children can study at least in a mixed format – offline as well.

I was in Kharkiv today. A good, emotional meeting in a metro school – an extremely useful, appropriate project. Children study in classrooms like in a regular school, but in the subway – in the shelter that is the subway. I talked to the boys and girls – bright eyes, bright minds, and a very bright school. There is a future when there are children like this. I am sure of it. I had the honor of awarding teachers from Kharkiv and Kharkiv region, from different cities, who work in Ukraine, for the sake of Ukraine.

This morning I was in Kupyansk – it is important to support our city and our defenders. I held a meeting with General Syrskyi and the commanders who are fighting in the Kupyansk sector. I awarded the five officers who were present and asked to present awards to soldiers, sergeants, and junior officers separately. Thank you, warriors, for your resilience and for your daily hard work!

Today I had three phone calls. German Chancellor Scholz, British Prime Minister Sunak, and Bulgarian Prime Minister Denkov. I have a lot to thank our partners for: our agreements – Ukraine and Germany, Ukraine and the UK, Ukraine and Bulgaria – are all being implemented. We have also outlined new joint steps. Protection of our people. Protection of our Europe. Protection of the international legal order. I thank everyone in the world who helps Ukraine!

Glory to all our heroes who are now in combat! Glory to the powerful Ukrainian people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

This is Danylo and Diana. They were killed by russia.

Six months after russia invaded Ukraine, they met for their first date. Danylo proposed in the basement shelter where they took cover from russian bombs. They could have a happy and long life together.

But it ended suddenly,… pic.twitter.com/7k0y02uc1A

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 30, 2023

This is Danylo and Diana. They were killed by russia.

Six months after russia invaded Ukraine, they met for their first date. Danylo proposed in the basement shelter where they took cover from russian bombs. They could have a happy and long life together.

But it ended suddenly, when russian missile strike crashed through their home and killed them both instantly, one month before their first wedding anniversary.

📸: Ed Ram / The Washington Post

The purpose:

"Thank you for risking your lives every day so that we can live peacefully and safely"—an excerpt from a greeting card for a Ukrainian defender prepared by a kid.

A sincere "thank you" from a child—this is worth fighting for. Even the youngest Ukrainians support warriors in our… pic.twitter.com/PBaxDEcTMt

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 30, 2023

“Thank you for risking your lives every day so that we can live peacefully and safely”—an excerpt from a greeting card for a Ukrainian defender prepared by a kid.

A sincere “thank you” from a child—this is worth fighting for. Even the youngest Ukrainians support warriors in our fight for freedom.

📸: 44th Mechanized Brigade

President Zelenskyy made a battlefield circulation yesterday.

Today is entirely dedicated to our southern regions. Odesa – a meeting with the military. Air defense for the city, for the region, for Ukrainian Black Sea ports, our export corridor. I held a detailed meeting with the heads of all those regions that were most affected by severe… pic.twitter.com/gV2AnANuXY

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 29, 2023

Today is entirely dedicated to our southern regions. Odesa – a meeting with the military. Air defense for the city, for the region, for Ukrainian Black Sea ports, our export corridor. I held a detailed meeting with the heads of all those regions that were most affected by severe weather.

Mykolaiv. Meeting with our Danish friends who are working in the city on specific restoration projects. It’s a genuinely effective patronage. There were also representatives from the diplomatic corps of the countries we invited to join the recovery programs.

And finally, Kherson. Protection of the city, protection of the region. Local officials presented the results of the construction of shelters. The plans that are yet to be implemented. I also held a very substantive and detailed meeting concerning our actions on the southern frontlines.

Kupyansk:

Передовий командний пункт оборонців Купʼянська. Честь – відвідати та нагородити воїнів.

Бійці на Куп’янському напрямку захищають мирне життя українців – людей Харківщини. Я дякую воїнам за службу, за захист нашої держави! Бажаю перемоги, бути міцними й не втрачати ініціативи. pic.twitter.com/9s8vcfMZur

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 30, 2023

The frontline command post of Kupyansk defenders. It was an honor to meet and award the warriors.

The fighters on the Kupyansk front are defending the peaceful life of Ukrainians, the people of Kharkiv region. I thank the warriors for their service, for defending our state! I wish them victory, to stay strong and keep up the momentum.

Mykolaiv Oblast:

Visit to Mykolaiv region. The Danish Patronage Program over the region is an example that demonstrates to other countries what we can do together for the benefit of our nations and the protection of common values. I am grateful to Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen @Statsmin and all… pic.twitter.com/vOdB2Z2vkN

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 29, 2023

Visit to Mykolaiv region. The Danish Patronage Program over the region is an example that demonstrates to other countries what we can do together for the benefit of our nations and the protection of common values. I am grateful to Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen
@Statsmin
and all Danes for their warmth and attention to our people, for such effective cooperation.

Immediately afterwards, I visited Kherson. There I visited the largest shelter in the city, listened to a report on the construction of protective structures and shelters. I held a meeting on the operational situation in Kherson region and the course of the hostilities on the left bank. I also met with the warriors who are carrying out offensive operations and presented them with awards.

Odesa:

Сьогодні працюємо на Одещині.

Розпочали з доповідей військових і наради щодо захисту регіону. Ситуація в Чорному морі, протимінні заходи та гарантування безпеки «зернового коридору». Робота ППО Одещини, прикриття з повітря Одеси, наших портів. Вручив державні нагороди воїнам,… pic.twitter.com/GCc1V1Bb9k

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 29, 2023

Today we are working in Odesa region.

We started with reports from the military and a meeting on the protection of the region. The situation in the Black Sea, mine countermeasures and ensuring the security of the grain corridor. The work of air defense in Odesa region, air cover for Odesa and our ports. I presented state awards to the warriors defending the southern regions and our Black Sea water area.

I visited the regional center for IDPs in Odesa.

I also held a meeting on eliminating the aftermath of severe weather. We must speed up the restoration of electricity supply in the affected towns and villages.

The Donbas:

The beauty of Donbas landscapes.

russia tries to raze this region to the ground, but they are unable to break the Ukrainian spirit.

📹: 24th Separate Assault Battalion "Aidar" pic.twitter.com/janzZZyFd2

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 30, 2023

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

/2. Russian BUK was targeted 46km from the frontline https://t.co/05MG86hMbv pic.twitter.com/SgRPheE91P

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 30, 2023

Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok 220mm MLRS destroyed by the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine. Left bank Kherson region. https://t.co/9rot1rPLR7 pic.twitter.com/lVzeuGhn2R

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 30, 2023

Avdiivka:

Bombardment of abounded Russian MT-LBs on Avdiivka front. By the 110th Brigade of Ukraine. https://t.co/GAvXAmoJVl pic.twitter.com/oVGyvmxmPm

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 30, 2023

The Republic of Buryatia:

Ukraine’s SBU blows up freight train in rail tunnel deep inside Russia.

According to Kyiv Post, a freight train with military goods from China was struck in the Severomuysky Tunnel on the Baikal Amur Mainline in Buryatia, north of Mongolia.

Source: https://t.co/lU7jM37k6b… pic.twitter.com/yZLhquuyM2

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 30, 2023

Ukraine’s SBU blows up freight train in rail tunnel deep inside Russia.

According to Kyiv Post, a freight train with military goods from China was struck in the Severomuysky Tunnel on the Baikal Amur Mainline in Buryatia, north of Mongolia.

Source: http://kyivpost.com/post/24856

#Ukraine #Russia #Buryatia

Rostov on Don, Russia:

A group of Russian marines died in an explosion at the Kuzminsky training ground near Rostov on November 3. – Russian media
– About 20 people from the [marine brigade] lit a fire during their lunch break nearby with ammunition storage. The RPG-7 grenade launcher shell rolled… https://t.co/26ugwig9RL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 30, 2023

A group of Russian marines died in an explosion at the Kuzminsky training ground near Rostov on November 3. – Russian media
– About 20 people from the [marine brigade] lit a fire during their lunch break nearby with ammunition storage. The RPG-7 grenade launcher shell rolled into the fire and exploded. Eight people died on the spot, another eight were injured. All those injured and killed were contract soldiers from Vladivostok. Four seriously wounded soldiers died in hospital within a few days.

Today is the 84th anniversary of the start of Finland’s Winter War against Russian invasion:

On this day 84 years ago, Soviet-Russia launched an unprovoked full scale war against Finland. It would become known as the “Winter War”. The Soviet plans was to capture all of Finland within 2 weeks, but as many other plans conceived in Moscow this one as well disintegrated when… pic.twitter.com/bY3j5g3q1D

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 30, 2023

On this day 84 years ago, Soviet-Russia launched an unprovoked full scale war against Finland. It would become known as the “Winter War”. The Soviet plans was to capture all of Finland within 2 weeks, but as many other plans conceived in Moscow this one as well disintegrated when colliding with reality.

Finland, though being totally outmanned and outgunned, repelled the initial invasion and inflicted devastating losses among Soviet ranks. Especially the Battle of Suomussalmi, which ended in an overwhelming Finish victory, crossed Moscow’s plan and embarrassed the largest army in the world of this time.

However, Finland was basically left alone. Neither the Western allies, nor Germany, which was mainly honoring the Hitler-Stalin pact, came decisively to help. Volunteers from Scandinavia, primarily from Sweden, made the bulk of foreign help, which was however small compared to Soviet huge reserves. Finland resisted the full occupation thanks to its valiant resilience of its people but was eventually compelled to sign a harsh treaty which cost them 12% of Finish territory.

84 years later Russia hasn’t changed much and proves once again to be an untrustworthy neighbor with imperial ambitions, this time in Ukraine. Though the Western support is different than back in 1939 and Russia not even close to what the Soviet Union once was, it is still baffling to see how mistakes in the West are repeated. Instead of a decisive and an all-deterrent commitment in helping an attacked country, a lot of timid steps and statements can be observed, just like in 1939. Ukraine certainly repelled the initial invasion and even cleared vast areas from Russian presence, but the lack and slow pace of foreign help only stretched the war which could have been ended long ago if delivery of military goods and production of ammunition would have been launched one day one. 21 months later Russia has been severely weakened but is still capable to wage war. Instead of taking of the gloves and going all-in, certain elements in the West still cling to their failed appeasement tactic which led to this problem in the first place.

It is obvious that none of the traditional attempts to appease Moscow led to anything but escalation and suffering. Only a decisive strike against all Russian troops in occupied Ukraine, supported by massive military deliveries from the West can end this war in an acceptable way. It is still time to learn from the mistakes, from those in 1939 and those 2022/2023.

#Finland #Ukraine

Obligatory:

For Omnes:

3 steps of effective artillery combat actions.

1: Load the gun
2: Destroy enemy positions
3: Enjoy the results

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/XshV8lJPpt

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 30, 2023

The House majority GOP caucus and their fellow travelers in the Senate GOP minority caucus are holding up funds for American workers in their . The Washington Post has the details:

Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. That’s right: Funds that lawmakers approve to arm Ukraine are not going directly to Ukraine but are being used stateside to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles. Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found.

But you wouldn’t know that from the actions of some U.S. lawmakers. When Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (R) joined a United Auto Workers picket line in October at the Jeep assembly plant in Toledo, he said he wanted to “show some support for the UAW workers” in his state. Yet he has not shown the same solidarity with the UAW workers in Lima, Ohio, who are churning out Abrams tanks and Stryker combat vehicles for Ukraine thanks to the military aid that Congress has approved. Vance opposes Ukraine aid, as does Rep. Jim Jordan (R), whose House district includes Lima.

Ohio voters might have expected their elected leaders to be pushing the (reluctant) Biden administration to give Ukraine more Lima-produced tanks and vehicles — or to require that more of them be included in the aid package for Ukraine that Congress will soon take up. Instead, Vance and Jordan are fighting to stop Ukraine from receiving any more union-made tanks and combat vehicles from America’s only tank factory.

It’s not just them. In all, 31 senators and House members whose states or districts benefit from funding for Ukraine have voted to oppose or restrict that aid. They include some of the most prominent anti-Ukraine voices in Congress, such as Republican Sens. Josh Hawley (Mo.), Tommy Tuberville (Ala.) and Mike Braun (Ind.), as well as Republican Reps. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bill Posey (Fla.), Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.) and Lance Gooden (Tex.).

At a time when both major parties are competing to win working-class votes and strengthen the U.S. manufacturing base, our military aid to Ukraine does exactly that — it is providing a major cash infusion into factories across the country that directly benefits American workers. It is also creating jobs and opportunities for local suppliers, shops, restaurants and other businesses that support the factories rolling out weapons.

Until now, no one had mapped out precisely where these U.S. military aid funds are going. My American Enterprise Institute colleagues Clara Keuss, Noah Burke and I have catalogued the weapons systems being produced in the United States for Ukraine — tracing the states and congressional districts where they are being made and how senators and House members voted on the funding. We analyzed contracts and press releases and spoke to defense industry experts, diplomats and Pentagon officials to determine where U.S. tax dollars end up.

We have identified 117 production lines in at least 31 states and 71 cities where American workers are producing major weapons systems for Ukraine. For example, aid that Congress has already approved is going to, among many other places:

• Simi Valley, Calif.; Fullerton, Calif.; Andover, Mass.; Forest, Miss.; and York, Pa., to build Switchblade unmanned aerial systems, radar systems and tactical vehicles.
• York, Pa., and Anniston, Ala., to build Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
• Aiken, S.C.; Elgin, Okla.; Sterling Heights, Mich.; Endicott, N.Y.; York, Pa.; and Minneapolis to build howitzers.
• Peoria, Ill.; Clearwater, Palm Bay and Niceville, Fla.; Camden, Ark.; Lancaster and Grand Prairie, Tex.; Rocket Center, W.Va.; and Trenton, N.J., to build HIMARS launchers.
• Anniston and Huntsville, Ala., and Camden, Ark., to build parts for the Hydra-70 rocket.
• Farmington, N.M.; Orlando; Tucson; and Troy, Ala., to build Javelin antitank missiles.

Many other weapons systems are being built for Ukraine in factories around our country. Nor does this list count the suppliers that provide these contractors with parts, such as plastic and computer chips, or produce smaller items for Ukraine, such as cold-weather and night-vision gear, medical supplies, spare parts and millions of rounds of small-arms ammunition. As one Ukrainian official told me, “Every single state in the U.S. contributes to this effort.”

In other words, as happens with foreign military aid, our aid to Ukraine is not only creating American jobs but also reinvigorating our dangerously atrophied defense industrial base. Vance said in October that “the condition of the American defense industrial base is a national scandal. Repairing it is among our most urgent priorities.” Well, our aid to Ukraine is doing exactly that.

For example, the United States had not built a single new Stinger antiaircraft missile since 2005. The terrorists we were fighting in recent decades did not have jet fighters, so production faltered. Now, thanks to the Ukraine aid that Vance opposes, the Pentagon signed a $624.6 million contract last year to build Stinger missiles in Tucson, to replace about 1,400 sent to Ukraine. Without our Ukraine resupply effort, the Stinger production line likely would have remained dormant — perhaps until bombs started dropping in a conflict over Taiwan.

Or take the $600 million being used to build two weapons systems for Ukraine in St. Charles, Mo. One is the Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM ER), an air-launched GPS-guided weapon that converts dumb bombs into precision-guided glide bombs with a range of up to 45 miles (triple the range of the original weapon). The other is the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), a weapon system newly developed for Ukraine that can be launched from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and can travel 93 miles, almost double the range of current ground-launched precision munition systems.

If we were not aiding Ukraine, the United States would not be producing either of these weapons. The funding Congress has provided to manufacture both systems injects many millions of dollars into Missouri’s economy and is busying production lines for these advanced capabilities. Those systems will now be available for the United States and Taiwan should a conflict erupt with China, as well as available for Israel.

Workers in West Plains, Mo., are using Ukraine aid to build the MIM-104 Phased Array Tracking Radar for the Patriot missile system that shocked the world this year by downing Russia’s supposedly “invincible” hypersonic missile. This saved Ukrainian lives and proved in real battlefield conditions that the upgraded Patriot system might help defend against hypersonic threats from other adversaries.

Most senators would take credit for these successes. Not Hawley, who is trying to cut funding for these systems being built in his state. The same goes for Rep. Jason T. Smith, who represents Missouri’s 8th Congressional District, where the Patriot radars are built, yet has voted against such aid multiple times. Missouri’s other Republican U.S. senator, Eric Schmitt, has not yet voted on Ukraine aid but has said, “I don’t support these forever wars.” Perhaps he will support defense investments that benefit Missouri workers and strengthen our military production capacity to defend against Communist China?

Among the most shocking examples of our defense industrial base’s decline is our struggle to produce a relatively simple munition: 155mm artillery shells. These shells would be in high demand in any conflict the United States fights. Ukraine is firing 6,000 to 8,000 such shells a day, and Israel is ordering them by the tens of thousands. But before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, the United States was producing fewer than 15,000 shells per month. So the Pentagon has allocated $1.5 billion to boost production by 500 percent and is on pace to reach 100,000 per month.

With our withered defense production capacity, including a lack of machine tools, reaching that rate will take two years. Even then, the U.S. output in 2025 is likely to not match that of Russia in 2024. But were it not for our aid to Ukraine, those U.S. production increases would not be happening. With money Congress approved to arm Kyiv, shells are being assembled in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, Pa., and in a new factory in Camden, Ark., using components (including explosives, propellant, primers, fuses and shell bodies) produced in such U.S. cities and towns as Kingsport and Cordova, Tenn.; Bristol, Pa.; Middletown, Iowa; and Coachella, Calif. A factory being built in Mesquite, Tex., is expected to produce about 20,000 shells a month and employ at least 125 workers after it comes online early next year. The president of the Mesquite Chamber of Commerce told the New York Times that lawmakers who oppose Ukraine aid are “voting against your constituents. … You’re literally saying no to the people you’re representing.” Yet Gooden, who represents Mesquite, voted against the aid that is helping fund the new plant in his district.

Our aid to Ukraine is not only forcing the Pentagon to rapidly increase the United States’ ability to produce weapons; it’s also modernizing the U.S. military. As retired Army Maj. Gen. John G. Ferrari, now a colleague at the American Enterprise Institute, recently pointed out, we are giving Ukraine weapons systems that are often decades old and then replacing our stockpiles with more advanced versions. “Because of the existing budget pressures on the Army, it wouldn’t be able to afford this needed modernization of equipment on its own,” Ferrari wrote in an op-ed. “By transferring weapons and gear to Ukraine, the Army would receive more modern weapons in return.”

The U.S.-led effort to arm Ukraine reinvigorates our defense production capacity in still other ways. The United States is also creating incentives for NATO allies to donate their old U.S.-produced and Soviet-era weapons systems to Ukraine by authorizing the sale of newer, modern U.S.-made systems to replace them. For example, Poland sent 250 older Soviet and German tanks to Ukraine and signed a $4.75 billion deal in April 2022 to buy 250 M1A2 Abrams replacement tanks that will be produced at the Lima, Ohio, factory. Poland subsequently made a $1.4 billion deal for additional tanks. Poland also sent its Soviet-made Mi-24 attack helicopters to Ukraine and then signed a $12 billion deal to purchase 96 Apache helicopters that will be built in Mesa, Ariz.

Efforts to arm and equip Ukraine have also dramatically boosted sales of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets. This benefits workers at production facilities in Palmdale, Calif.; East Hartford, Conn.; Middletown, Iowa; and Fort Worth, as well as in other U.S. cities that produce parts for the jets. Finland, which finalized a $9.4 billion deal to purchase 64 F-35s, has said the new planes will allow it to donate its old F/A-18 Hornet fighters to Ukraine. Norway, which has donated old F-16 fighters to Ukraine, is purchasing 52 F-35s and spending $293 million to arm them with 580 StormBreaker Small Diameter Bombs made in Tucson. Denmark and the Netherlands are donating 61 F-16s to Ukraine and replacing them with additional F-35s.

In all, our analysis found that there are at least 13 production lines in 10 states and 11 U.S. cities producing new American-made weapons for NATO allies to replace the equipment they have sent to Ukraine. As Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has concluded, “Much of the money directly supporting Ukraine is spent not abroad, but here in the United States.” This makes it “a misnomer” to call the $68 billion he calculates we have spent to arm Ukraine “aid.”

We asked for comments from the lawmakers who voted against aid that is going to their districts. “Manufacturing weapons in Ohio is good. You know what’s better? Using them for our own defense rather than sending them to a corrupt money pit in Eastern Europe,” Vance said. “There’s no question why Ukraine wants Abrams tanks … but our constituents have great concerns about seemingly unlimited taxpayer money being used to fund the war in Ukraine,” a spokesman for Jordan replied. “Alabama is right to be proud of our role in securing America’s national defense, but the United States cannot get involved in every conflict around the world,” said Tuberville. “We borrow $1 trillion every six months, and our growing national debt is our most dire national security threat,” said a spokesman for Braun. “I don’t vote for or against wars based on which congressional districts get the jobs,” Gaetz responded.

Putin is taking advantage of the assistance provided by his useful Republican idiots, as well as risk adverse senior national security leaders in the US, the EU, and NATO:

Solid attempt of @TheEconomist to bring West elites out of complacency&galvanise into action.

Fact that RU suffered miserably in 2022 made some people to think in “Mission accomplished” mode. RU partially recovered psychologically&invested in long term fight – unlike West. pic.twitter.com/xcxuMD6NAj

— Mykola Bielieskov (@MBielieskov) November 30, 2023

“The West could do more to frustrate Putin…it could deploy industrial & financial resources that dwarf Russia’s. However, fatalism, complacency & a shocking lack of strategic vision are getting in the way, especially in Europe.” @TheEconomist ($)
https://t.co/t1W5MTIHtr

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) November 30, 2023

The Economist via the Wayback Machine:

For the first time since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24th 2022, he looks as if he could win. Russia’s president has put his country on a war footing and strengthened his grip on power. He has procured military supplies abroad and is helping turn the global south against America. Crucially, he is undermining the conviction in the West that Ukraine can—and must—emerge from the war as a thriving European democracy.

The West could do a lot more to frustrate Mr Putin. If it chose, it could deploy industrial and financial resources that dwarf Russia’s. However, fatalism, complacency and a shocking lack of strategic vision are getting in the way, especially in Europe. For its own sake as well as Ukraine’s, the West urgently needs to shake off its lethargy.

The reason a Putin victory is possible is that winning is about endurance rather than capturing territory. Neither army is in a position to drive out the other from the land they currently control. Ukraine’s counter-offensive has stalled. Russia is losing over 900 men a day in the battle to take Avdiivka, a city in the Donbas region. This is a defenders’ war, and it could last many years.

However, the battlefield shapes politics. Momentum affects morale. If Ukraine retreats, dissent in Kyiv will grow louder. So will voices in the West saying that sending Ukraine money and weapons is a waste. In 2024 at least, Russia will be in a stronger position to fight, because it will have more drones and artillery shells, because its army has developed successful electronic-warfare tactics against some Ukrainian weapons and because Mr Putin will tolerate horrific casualties among his own men.

Increasing foreign support partly explains Russia’s edge on the battlefield. Mr Putin has obtained drones from Iran and shells from North Korea. He has worked to convince much of the global south that it has no great stake in what happens to Ukraine. Turkey and Kazakhstan have become channels for goods that feed the Russian war machine. A Western scheme to limit Russian oil revenues by capping the price for its crude at $60 a barrel has failed because a parallel trading structure has emerged beyond the reach of the West. The price of Urals crude from Russia is $64, up nearly 10% since the start of 2023.

Mr Putin is also winning because he has strengthened his position at home. He now tells Russians, absurdly, that they are locked in a struggle for survival against the West. Ordinary Russians may not like the war, but they have become used to it. The elite have tightened their grip on the economy and are making plenty of money. Mr Putin can afford to pay a lifetime’s wages to the families of those who fight and die.

Faced with all this, no wonder the mood in Kyiv is darker. Politics has returned, as people jostle for influence. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, and Valery Zaluzhny, its most senior general, have fallen out. Internal polling suggests that corruption scandals and worries about Ukraine’s future have dented Mr Zelensky’s standing with voters.

Western governments insist they are as committed to Ukraine as ever. But polls around the world suggest that many doubt it. In America the Biden administration is struggling to make Congress release funding worth over $60bn. Next year’s election campaign will soon get in the way. If Donald Trump is elected president, having promised peace in short order, America could suddenly stop supplying weapons altogether.

Europe should be preparing for that dire possibility—and for American help to slow, whoever is in the White House. Instead, European leaders are carrying on as if munificent Joe Biden will always be in charge. The European Union has promised Ukraine €50bn ($56bn), but the money is being held up by Hungary and, possibly, a budgetary mess in Germany. In December the eu should signal that it is ready to start talks for Ukraine’s membership. But many believe that the process will be intentionally strung out because enlargement is hard and threatens vested interests. Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, was recorded (during a prank call) saying that Europe is weary. You would think a Trump presidency would galvanise support for Ukraine, as Europe took responsibility for its own defence. One leader privately predicts that support will in fact fragment.

That would be a disaster. By 2025 the strain of running a war may start to catch up with Mr Putin. Russians may increasingly resent the forced mobilisations, inflation and diversion of social spending to the army. Yet simply hoping that his regime collapses makes no sense. He could remain in power for years and if he does, he will threaten war because that is his excuse for domestic repression and his own people’s suffering. He has blighted his country’s prospects by isolating it from Europe and driving its most enterprising people into exile. Without war, the hollowness of his rule would be on full display.

Europe must, therefore, plan for Mr Putin as the main long-term threat to its security. Russia will rearm. It will have combat experience. Planning for Europe’s defence should be designed to prevent Mr Putin from sensing weakness on its flank—especially if he doubts a President Trump’s willingness to fight should a nato country be attacked.

The best way to deter Mr Putin would be for Europe to demonstrate its resolve by showing right now that it is fully committed to a thriving, democratic, westward-looking Ukraine. Weapons matter, especially air defences and long-range missiles to strike at Russian supply lines, which is why it is crucial for America to approve the latest tranche of aid. Because arsenals are already depleted, more work needs to go into increasing the capacity of Western arms-makers. Sanctions could be targeted more effectively to split the regime from the elite.

Political action in Europe is essential, too (see Charlemagne). Mr Putin will attack Ukraine’s cities and subvert its society to sabotage the country’s transformation into a Western democracy. In response Europe should be redoubling its efforts to ensure that Ukraine progresses, with the promise of money and eu accession. European leaders have not acknowledged the size of the task—indeed, too many seem to shrink from it. That is folly. They should heed Leon Trotsky: they may not be interested in war, but war is interested in them.

All of this is made easier because of Russia’s information warfare campaign against the US, the EU states, NATO, and our non-EU and non-NATO allies. First tweet from the thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Some things look a lot clearer in hindsight.

That’s especially true for russian disinformation. Its peddlers have to keep up with ever changing narratives so they hope you’re too distracted by new lies to hold them to account for the old lies.

But let’s, for a moment, step away… pic.twitter.com/KhxvM5hy1A

— Bad Baltic Takes (@BadBalticTakes) November 30, 2023

Some things look a lot clearer in hindsight.

That’s especially true for russian disinformation. Its peddlers have to keep up with ever changing narratives so they hope you’re too distracted by new lies to hold them to account for the old lies.

But let’s, for a moment, step away from current bullshit & rewind exactly 2 years.

Settle in. This is gonna be a LONG one, but I think there are key lessons to learn. 🧵

⏪ It’s November 2021.

This was the period in which the continued build up of russia’s invasion force became so impossible to ignore that many people internationally first heard concerns predicting the impending invasion.

There was lots of good journalism and analysis back then going into detail about why it appeared russia was planning an invasion and what the world could urgently do to deter it.

Russia ridiculed the warnings. As Business Insider reported:

‘Russia says it’s not planning an invasion as US and others raise concerns about troop buildup near Ukraine’.

A kremlin spokesperson said that “the movement of troops on our territory shouldn’t be a cause for anyone’s concern” and any suggestion it was planning to invade Ukraine [further] was a “hollow and unfounded attempt to incite tensions”, adding “russia doesn’t threaten anyone”.

These denials were crucial, not just for the element of surprise against Ukraine, but also to bypass both global and domestic outrage building in advance to stop the war and so that russia could later attempt to craft its propaganda narrative about how it had been provoked once its invasion force was in place.

As you can probably guess, ‘others’ from the headline included the Baltic countries. Our leaders were urgently warning the world to deter russian aggression by standing with Ukraine and making clear the cost to russia of a wider war.

But, despite the massive invasion force being built up around Ukraine by an aggressor state that had already partially invaded Ukraine, there was also fairly widespread doubt building internationally too about whether the invasion force was an invasion force and so whether any attempt at deterrence was needed.

I spent some time looking through articles and tweets that summarise public perceptions and how it was being influenced from November into December 2021.

A number of “russia experts” – mostly former moscow correspondents who boosted each other online and have some curious connections offline – had quite a significant influence while ridiculing anyone concerned about russia’s threat. Their behaviour worked out exactly in the interests of the kremlin, which was desperate to deceive the world about its invasion plans.

In retrospect, their writings clearly have very close similarities with that of Walter Duranty back in the 1930s.

They ridicule reports about russia we now know were accurate, they smear the authors of those reports as propagandists, and they minimise Eastern European perspectives that warned about russia in ways that, again, we now know were accurate. Only fellow “russia experts” from russia and westerners who have spent time as moscow correspondents should be listened to, they heavily implied (even though they proved to be 100% wrong).

Oh, and this was also the height of the human trafficking operation organised through Belarus as part of hybrid warfare against Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.

These same “russia experts” were also busy pouring doubt on suggestions russia was fuelling it, which of course we know today is as absurd as them saying russia wouldn’t invade.

Next tweet, some key observations. 

Here’s a few key things I’d forgotten were considered normal two years ago in public discourse from these “russia experts” but is much more notable in hindsight:

– The people with the worst takes were a lot more friendly with each other then than now.

You see, the widespread revulsion towards russia’s full scale war forced russia’s assets and useful idiots to pick whether they’d publicly condemn the invasion (while more subtly promoting kremlin narratives) or go all in and start justifying it. So these two types of propaganda pushers now have to act like they are on opposing sides. Yet, 2 years ago, many of these same people were friendly with each other and boosting each other by retweeting, engaging, and sharing each other’s articles.

That’s how they gained disproportionate influence. By acting as one network, quite openly until the full scale war.

Ok, maybe they genuinely fell out over opposing beliefs but then it’s not like we’ve seen any reflection among the ‘moderates’ about why they were previously being amplified by genocide-supporting extremists.

– I forgot how vitriolic they all used to be, even then. Anyone expressing concern about russian aggression was being called “grifters”, the “russia-bashing industry”, and “war mongers” – and, according to them, should pay the price for getting it wrong when russia doesn’t invade (presumably with more ridicule and demonisation simply for deterring russian aggression).

Yet now they think it’s really unfair when, for example, some bad takes account shows how bad their takes were and asks them some long overdue awkward questions about their kremlin connections.

– The “russia experts” engaged in bizarrely nonsensical theorising, the logic of which they very quickly abandoned when the full scale war began.

You see, they needed a way to explain why people were warning about russia if there was no threat so they indulged in conspiracy theories and bizarre logic that concerns about russia were being expressed in order to… er, provoke a war.

So, if they were consistent, they would now believe russia’s full scale war was provoked by western predictions of its full scale war. (Although I have no clue how that makes sense).

But they didn’t follow through on that logic. As soon as the full scale war began, they had to quickly ditch those conspiracy theories if they wanted to maintain their image as independent journalists opposed to the war. They knew they couldn’t get away with that nonsense in the face of widespread revulsion to russia’s invasion. It’s like they never actually believed the bullshit they were saying two years ago.

– I need to reiterate that there was LOTS of good analysis at the time warning about the very real impending risk of a russian invasion. I found all kinds of journalists, politicians, and think tank analysts who feared what was coming and offered good solutions, such as in discussion around sanctions. That’s in addition to millions of ordinary people concerned about the invasion force. The “russia experts” were ridiculing them.

This is important to remember because these same “russia experts” now like to say “no one could have predicted putin would do this [full scale war]”. That’s gaslighting. They are just trying to cover their tracks for their own consistently bad takes.

– Finally, at the heart of all this is the marginalisation of Eastern European voices. They talked of invasion concerns as if it was a purely American elite thing and then talked about how it was debunked by “Russian and Western experts on Russia”. The people most affected by russian aggression, among whom millions of ordinary people could clearly see it coming, were largely erased from the discourse. Just as this war is about erasing them too.

I’m glad that looks so bizarre and horribly outdated now. But we didn’t need a full scale war to know that the people most experienced and impacted by something (like russian aggression) also know the most about it. 

Let’s take a look at a “russia expert”who best typifies the previous points.

As “the third longest serving foreign correspondent in Russia”, Ben Aris is an award-winning journalist.

And I use the word ‘journalist’… well, incorrectly.

Because he built his career while also working for the russian state and its them who gave him his awards. He was ‘Business Journalist of the Year’ multiple times, although he accepted that from russia’s state news agency.

Two years ago, Aris was furiously tweeting and writing articles about how “There. Is. No. Danger. Of. Invasion.” He said the idea russia would invade Ukraine [further] was just being gleefully hyped so the West can sell more weapons.

“But analysts – both Russian and international – are almost unanimous in the belief that the chances of an actual invasion are almost zero.”

It’s a particularly odd thing to say as he was also busy mocking analysts for saying the thing they apparently weren’t saying.

And, of course, there are no Eastern European voices referenced in this coverage.

Aris reasoned russia wouldn’t invade because “the only thing of value Ukraine has is agriculture, which would collapse in the event of an all-out war”.

The more you think about that sentence, the worse it gets. A “russia expert” confidently claiming Ukraine has nothing of value for imperial conquest. It has layers of absurdity.

Aris also claimed that putin always signalled exactly what he was going to do and could be trusted to follow through on it (somehow missing the genocidal signalling of his ‘Russians are Ukrainians as one people’ garbage).

Aris continued:

“But as it is Putin and as he has been so demonised in the last two decades a lot of what he says is ignored, or twisted to suit the various narratives used to describe Russia.”

The parallels with Walter Duranty’s work as a moscow correspondent are quite uncanny. Duranty also dismissed concerns about russia by attributing it to western propagandists, while claiming russian and western analysts were in agreement there was nothing to worry about (when obviously not the case).

In addition to being a contributor to RT, Aris established a complex web of companies – including in Cyprus, which acted as a key supplier of propaganda content to the russian state. They mostly call themselves BNE.

If I get anything wrong about them, I will happily correct it, although I never got clear answers in the past.

Aris’s cofounder is Liam Halligan – not a “russia expert” per se, but an influential finance journalist in the UK who currently presents on GB News …and has consistently argued against sanctions on russia since 2014, never missing an opportunity to argue that it harms the West financially to stand up to russia.

Their company has employed/contracted quite a few other notable “russia experts”, some of which have been featured a lot on this account for their bad takes dismissing concerns about russia. That includes, for example, Leonid Ragozin, the independent journalist “made in the BBC” who also used this period to ridicule and smear people concerned about russia’s invasion as “grifters”.

Their influence was not insignificant. For example, I’d say the most influential voice downplaying the possibility of an invasion was Time’s Simon Shuster who references the expertise of this group when stating that a russian invasion would go against everything he knows about russia.

The hill I’m prepared to die on is that no one would really have had any doubt that russia’s giant invasion force was a giant invasion force were it not for russia’s influence operation, which definitely included more than just Hubert Seipel.

Sure, 1984 and Animal Farm are great for understanding russia, but a lot of people just need to start with “The Emperor’s New Clothes”, the children’s folk tale about how social pressure convinces people not to see the obvious reality before them.

Ok, just one more concluding tweet.

The “russia experts” are still doing what they did before the full scale war they insisted would never happen.

They are still often promoting kremlin-aligned narratives, and still smearing alternative perspectives from those most affected by russian aggression as “info warriors” and “troll farms” or whatever.

Their reputations have been quite diminished and they now have to grudgingly share attention with Eastern European voices who actually know more about russia. However, they do still have a fair amount of influence.

They have not reflected in any meaningful way, nor even just apologised to people they called evil warmongering grifters for being concerned about russia’s war.

Notably, they have also been entirely uninterested in examining russian influence operations where it might have influenced people like… er, russia experts.

There was a deafening silence among them when Hubert Seipel was exposed. None of the main players commented anything. Is it really believable that they were entirely uninterested in corruption within their own industry of expertise? Especially when some of them also happen to have expertise opening companies in Cyprus.

We saw something similar with Seymour Hersh. They promoted his easily debunkable Nord Stream tale but then as the story got more interesting and it became obvious Hersh was being fed stories from a Russian speaker often just using autotranslate, the “russia experts” just entirely stopped talking about Hersh.

Now, obviously, not all “russia experts” are russian assets.

Some certainly are, as we saw with Hubert Seipel. And with people like Aris, it’s not even a case of looking for secret payments. Even though he brushes it off his CV now, he did openly work for the russian state. People like him try to normalise the idea that it’s ok to work for russia as long as you stopped after the full scale invasion. But, no. We all knew what russia was back then and it was very often pointed out to RT employees by actual journalists that they would be forever stained. They enabled what russia is now. They must own it.

But many other “russia experts” are just naive and too often susceptible to russian influence, while reflecting the russian chauvinist perspective and being too keen to ignore the voices of those who can best see reality. This is part of a structural problem with studying and becoming an expert on russia. Some of the notable names working for BNE would be in this category.

This account will always be far more interested in them and their bad takes than the vatniks. The latter are just boring attention seekers with no shame. The former have more influence and more interesting questions to answer. The russia expert industry definitely needs some self-reflection.

And, of course, there are also many real russia experts – not in quote marks – but people with a genuinely good track record understanding and explaining russia who deserve even more attention.

Even then though, I’d argue that we need to hear more UKRAINE EXPERTS and experts on other countries facing russian aggression – with as many voices from those countries as possible.

This is the ultimate lesson.

If, for some reason, you want someone to recommend a restaurant in Moscow then, sure, ask a “russia expert”. But if you want to understand russian aggression then listen to the people most affected by it on the receiving end.

“Russia experts” helped get us into this mess. The age of Walter Duranty is not yet over, although their dominance over discourse is waning. Ukraine experts can help get us out of this mess.

Ok, tweet thread over. 

The Financial Times is reporting that Russia has joined Governor DeSantis’s, his senior advisor Chris Rufo’s, Senator Tubberville’s, and the GOP’s war on LGBTQ+ people.

Russia’s Supreme Court has ruled the global gay rights movement to be an “extremist organisation” on a legal par with al-Qaeda and Isis, outlawing any display of support for LGBT+ rights.

Increasingly repressive measures have been introduced in Russia against the LGBT+ community, but Thursday’s ruling adds a complete ban on any public expression of support. Since symbols of “extremist” movements are forbidden, the ban is likely to cover gestures such as showing the rainbow flag.

The Supreme Court was responding to a suit filed two weeks ago by Russia’s justice ministry in which it argued that the LGBT+ movement was “extremist”, on the grounds that it promoted social and religious division inside Russia.

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s anti-corruption movement has also previously been added to the country’s extremist list, as were US internet company Meta and the Jehovah’s Witnesses.

The court’s decision comes as the Kremlin devotes more resources to the propagation of so-called traditional family values — an issue it has often used to unify the Russian population against the west and western liberalism.

In November, President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order declaring 2024 the Year of the Family amid fears concerning the country’s falling birth rate and its implications for Russia’s demographics.

However, analysts and opposition figures have accused the Kremlin of using social issues such as abortion and LGBT+ rights as a way to distract from the ongoing economic and social costs of Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly ahead of the March 2024 presidential election.

“The classification of LGBT as an extremist movement is the beginning of Putin’s election campaign,” Ivan Zhdanov, the director of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, said on social media platform X.

“This is his clear programme for a new term: a step towards the complete Iran-isation, isolation of Russia. There will be a complete distraction from real problems, the creation of mythical enemies, discrimination against parts of the population on various grounds — this is just the beginning.”

On Thursday, activists and lawyers were scrambling to understand the repercussions of the court’s ruling, which took place behind closed doors. It offered no rationale for how the decision was made, or what criteria should determine what symbols or organisations could be classified as LGBT+.

“This is total absurdity, but it will have serious consequences,” the First Department, a collective of lawyers dealing with cases of alleged treason and espionage in Russia, said on Telegram.

Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s director for eastern Europe and Central Asia, called the decision “shameful”.

“There is little if any doubt that it will lead to the persecution of LGBTI activists, undoing decades of their brave and dedicated work, while threatening to inspire and legitimise whole new levels of violence against LGBTI persons across Russia,” she said.

The court’s decision comes a decade after Russia first passed a law outlawing “gay propaganda” shortly after Putin returned to the presidency. Four months ago, he signed a new law criminalising transgender surgery and hormonal treatments for changing gender.

More at the link.

The co-founders of Mom’s Florida, one of whom is the chair of the Florida state GOP, are currently unavailable for comment. Also, “Lordy, there are tapes!”

That’s enough for tonight.

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