We are preparing some serious long-range stuff to make sure the occupiers feel the might of Ukraine – address by the President of Ukraine

28 November 2023 – 20:28

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

I have just held a special, lengthy and detailed meeting of the Staff. First up – fortification. We are significantly enhancing our fortifications. There were detailed reports at all levels: The General Staff, the Ministry of Defense, the Prime Minister, regional authorities, commanders of the operational and strategic military formations. All finances are available. All decisions are in place. There should be comprehensive corresponding work in the communities. Everything is fully itemized – our country will definitely have enough mines and concrete. We need greater speed and efficiency, and everyone who is responsible for this has clear tasks.

There was also an important analysis of recent attacks against Ukraine – missiles, massive drone strikes. We analyzed the tactics of our air defense. There is a clear need to develop and reinforce our mobile firing groups, as well as to get all highly effective air defense systems. We separately reviewed the work of Patriots and NASAMS – everything is highly effective, and I’m grateful to the partners who assist us specifically with these systems. The Air Force Commander and other relevant commanders, as well as the Ministry of Defense have been given the necessary instructions.

There were, of course, reports from commanders on all fronts. Special attention was paid to the Donetsk directions: Avdiivka, Maryinka, and the Bakhmut area. Over the last 24 hours, the most intense hostilities were observed there. I thank all our warriors for their strength and resilience. The Kupyansk direction – I want to particularly highlight the holding of our positions there. We also discussed our actions on the southern fronts.

Today, I held a separate meeting with the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, and I can say it was optimistic. We’re preparing, among other things, some serious long-range stuff to make sure the occupiers feel the might of Ukraine.

And one more thing.

I have signed the law of Ukraine on the state budget for the next year. It’s evident that its main priority is protection against Russian aggression. However, we’re also taking into account the social needs of our people and fulfilling our country’s social obligations in full. During full-scale war, it’s incredibly important that every citizen in need of state support receives it. And everyone who is currently creating jobs, who is preserving businesses and even developing them, everyone who is in Ukraine and with Ukraine, working honestly and supporting others – they all support our defense and our progress towards Ukrainian goals.

To protect and strengthen our independence, to protect our people, to restore normal, decent living conditions – to the maximum extent possible. I thank everyone who fights and works for this cause! Glory to all Ukrainian warriors! Glory to our powerful people!

Glory to Ukraine!

President @ZelenskyyUa:
“Thousands of our people show the best and the strongest qualities of character for the sake of Ukraine's freedom and independence. And they always do so, regardless of the conditions or the weather. Now we must support them even more, we must not forget… pic.twitter.com/cIi3h8PSk2

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 28, 2023

Ukraine’s GUR has been infiltrated by an assassin.

Ukrainian website “Babel” reports the wife of Ukraine’s chief military intelligence leader Kyrylo Budanov has been hospitalized after being poisoned.#RussiaIsATerroristState #StandWithUkraine https://t.co/NIBu3sQ9qV pic.twitter.com/nM6XSwPmfV

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) November 28, 2023

Babel Ukraine has the details:

Marianna Budanova, the wife of the head of the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR), was poisoned with heavy metals. The woman is in the hospital.

Babel was informed about this by intelligence sources.

After a prolonged deterioration of her health, she was hospitalized.

“The course of treatment is now being completed, and then there will be a check-up by the doctors,” said the interlocutor at the GUR and added that the woman was diagnosed with heavy metal damage.

“These substances are not used in any way in everyday life and military affairs. Their presence may indicate a purposeful attempt to poison a specific person,” the intelligence agency said.

Sources confirmed that attempts were also made on Kyrylo Budanov before and after the full-scale invasion.

Currently, an investigation is being conducted into the alleged attempt to kill the wife of the head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

• In an interview with Radio Svoboda, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that his wife, Marianna, currently lives with him in his office, although she does not work in the state administration of Ukraine. Since June 2021, she has been working as an adviser to Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko.
• Kyrylo and Marianna Budanovs got married in August 2013. In October 2022, Budanova gave an interview to the Ukrainian magazine Elle, in which she talked about herself. She reported that she is a psychologist by education, and from 2015 to 2017 she was engaged in volunteering at the Main Military Hospital in Kyiv.

The GUR is no doubt conducting a mole hunt.

Speaking of the GUR:

Targeting of Russian machine gunners positions. https://t.co/PT4Ag68Pf0 pic.twitter.com/G0LIM3hDYf

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 28, 2023

Speaker Mike Johnson: “Ukraine is another priority…We can’t allow Vladimir Putin to march through Europe.” pic.twitter.com/wI8eeDtZZi

— Republicans for Ukraine (@GOP4Ukraine) November 27, 2023

Speaker Johnson could start by putting his  money where his mouth is and putting a clean supplemental Ukraine bill on the floor. I doubt he will because he knows that the minute he does that there will be a motion to vacate the chair. The strategic malpractice in DC is all playing out while time slips away in Ukraine.

To see a victorious Ukraine, we need to re-equip the existing (as opposed to newly formed) 15-20 Ukrainian brigades with vehicles, artillery, ammo, and equipment. Two years of war take a toll on weaponry. Discussions on commitment and aid lack substance without corresponding aid.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 28, 2023

I heard that in 2022, and we're just a month away from 2024. I am strongly convinced that I'll hear the same in 2025 and 2026.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 28, 2023

Avdiivka:

It never ceases to amaze me when reflecting that a 1,000 dollar drone can easily destroy hardware worth 1000 times and more than the drone itself. The BTR-82A can cost around 1.4 million USD, and yet it takes a second and all is but ashes.

The Russian BTR was destroyed somewhere… pic.twitter.com/QgpCYx8wvr

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 28, 2023

It never ceases to amaze me when reflecting that a 1,000 dollar drone can easily destroy hardware worth 1000 times and more than the drone itself. The BTR-82A can cost around 1.4 million USD, and yet it takes a second and all is but ashes.

The Russian BTR was destroyed somewhere in the Avdiivka sector.

Source of video: @NOELreports

#Ukraine #Avdiivka

Soledar:

Meanwhile, the city of Soledar in Donbas after Russian "liberation".
Population: 1 pic.twitter.com/7KtO6XnzRw

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 28, 2023

pic.twitter.com/kChu0XG4Ir

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 28, 2023

Glory to the brave pic.twitter.com/sxhWPPcIqq

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 28, 2023

The next tweet in Ponomarenko’s tweet is of the Russians executing Oleksandr Matsiyevsky, who is memorialized in the statue in the picture above, for telling them Glory to Ukraine when ordered to dig a ditch for them. So don’t click through if that would bother you.

Sumy Oblast:

Two women and a seven-year-old child killed by Russia in Sumy Oblast.
To those calling this a stalemate, please remember, Russia hasn’t paused its war for a moment and continues to kill civilians every day. pic.twitter.com/GRNXeH7sRP

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 28, 2023

The Dnipro River, Russian occupied Kherson:

Russian occupier, who came to Ukraine for $2000 a month, is complaining that the command is sending him and his comrades to a sure death on the Dnieper islands. Says they're getting flooded all the time, and at this point, don't even care about drones.https://t.co/8HBDzYYY6t pic.twitter.com/dkPKQ1etii

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 28, 2023

Novoprokopivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Russian BMP violently demilitarising by going over an anti-tank mine near Novoprokopivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.https://t.co/Y2PbG7WxO6

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 28, 2023

Donetsk Oblast:

Destroyed Russian Strela-10 air defense system. By the 53rd Brigade of Ukraine, Donetsk. https://t.co/g6j4bodbHb pic.twitter.com/i1qPIBMCDN

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 28, 2023

Yurivka, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Morning strike on Russian-occupied Yurivka, Kherson region. (46.4887573, 33.2157868). 30 km from the front. https://t.co/BUlKZtY5Kq pic.twitter.com/hg4Nun3tR6

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 28, 2023

This apparently was a meeting of law enforcement collaborators that ended rather abruptly.

Helsinki, Finland:

Finland will close all land borders with Russia after Helsinki accused Moscow of deliberately orchestrating a surge in asylum seekers as part of an “influence” operation. @maxseddon https://t.co/p5eHBQAeYQ

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 28, 2023

From The Financial Times:

Finland will close all land borders with Russia after Helsinki accused Moscow of deliberately orchestrating a surge in asylum seekers as part of an “influence” operation.

Following an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Finland announced that it would close Raja-Jooseppi in the far north, its last remaining border crossing with Russia, from Thursday until December 13.

Petteri Orpo, Finland’s prime minister, said the decision had been made after learning of “new information” this week that strengthened the government’s belief that Russia was deliberately sending migrants over the border.

“The phenomenon seen at the border in recent weeks must be stopped,” Orpo said at a press conference. “This is not only about the number of visitors but the phenomenon itself. This is about Russia’s influence [on] activities and we do not accept that.”

Helsinki has accused Russia of trying to destabilise Finland’s national security after nearly a thousand migrants attempted to use its eastern border crossings this month, up from just a few dozen in previous months.

Finland, which joined Nato in April, claims the rapid increase is “hybrid warfare”, a tactic used to stoke tensions and increase pressure on the country without resorting to open conflict.

Earlier this month, Finland closed its seven other checkpoints with Russia along their 1,340km border, claiming Moscow could be using the migrant traffic as cover to smuggle soldiers and criminals into the EU.

Finland’s interior ministry said the previous closures had failed to stop the traffic and the risk of more migrants attempting to cross Finland’s land borders posed “a serious threat to national security and public order”.

Under new rules, people seeking asylum in Finland must apply at airports and ports, the interior ministry added. Cargo rail traffic between Russia and Finland remains open.

Tensions between the two countries have risen since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, prompting Finland to abandon decades of neutrality and apply to become Nato’s 31st member.

More at the link!

Bryansk Oblast, Russia:

An update from last May:

⚡️The spokesman of the Air Force of 🇺🇦Ukraine confirmed the destruction of 🇷🇺Russian aircraft over the Bryansk region in May of last year with the Patriot air defense system.

Yuriy Ignat told what he calls May 13, 2023 "the Bryansk massacre". Then, "thanks to non-standard… pic.twitter.com/ZrG05lyMps

— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) November 27, 2023

⚡️The spokesman of the Air Force of 🇺🇦Ukraine confirmed the destruction of 🇷🇺Russian aircraft over the Bryansk region in May of last year with the Patriot air defense system.

Yuriy Ignat told what he calls May 13, 2023 “the Bryansk massacre”. Then, “thanks to non-standard actions”, the Patriot air defense units destroyed five aircraft at once in five minutes – one Su-34 fighter, one Su-35, two rare Mi-8MTPR-1 helicopters and another Mi-8.

Ignat added that shortly after these events, Patriot shot down another Su-35 over the Black Sea.

Source: https://t.co/RqmHRf3KGi

— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) November 27, 2023

For you drone enthusiasts:

The Vampire is the Ukrainian night bomber drone, which became the russian's nightmare.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/LACp0B4gbv

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 28, 2023

Hey, "no-analogue" T-90. Catch our drone!

📹: 82nd Air Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/xNrwFfbguh

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 28, 2023

The battle of drones!

🇺🇦 UAV pilot spotted an enemy drone, which was adjusting the fire of artillery, and decided to ram it. As a result, our drone remained in the air, while the enemy "bird" fell.

📹: 58th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/8666ldoG6r

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 28, 2023

As reported, Russian Major General Vladimir Zavadsky, Deputy Commander of the 14th Army Corps, was killed. Presumably he was killed by a mine. https://t.co/20MdvEXr13 pic.twitter.com/IiBPLNIkx1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 28, 2023

Obligatory:

“Ukraine & its allies must face, not fear, the war’s current reality. They should accept & prepare for a multiyear war & for the long-term containment of Russia instead of hoping for either a quick Ukrainian triumph or an imminent negotiated solution.”https://t.co/EOjKM2QnJo

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) November 28, 2023

From Foreign Affairs: (emphasis mine)

On November 1, Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, changed the debate about his country’s war with Russia with a statement. “Just like in the first World War,” he said in an interview with The Economist, the Ukrainian and Russian militaries “have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” Unless a massive leap in military technology gives one side a decisive advantage, “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.” These words prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to issue a rebuttal. The war “is not a stalemate, I emphasize this,” Zelensky argued. A deputy head of the office of the president noted that the comments stirred “panic” among Ukraine’s Western allies.

Such fear is understandable at a moment when the U.S. Congress, by far Ukraine’s largest source of aid, is deciding whether to sustain its military support. Before Ukraine launched its counteroffensive in June 2023, Washington evinced optimism that the Ukrainian military could swiftly achieve major military successes and secure Kyiv a stronger negotiating position to force concessions from Moscow. This has not happened. Not much territory has changed hands, and high hopes have yielded to a dispiriting narrative of impasse. A divided Congress likely has no “mountain of steel,” as U.S. officials have called the materiel they gave Ukraine in early 2023, to provide for a renewed counteroffensive in 2024, and European countries are falling short in the assistance they have promised. In purely military terms, Ukraine’s path to victory is unclear.

But Ukraine and its allies must face, not fear, the war’s current reality. They should accept and prepare for a multiyear war and for the long-term containment of Russia instead of hoping for either a quick Ukrainian triumph or, absent that, an imminent negotiated solution. An overwhelming victory is not guaranteed by either Ukrainian valor or Russian folly. And any hope that negotiations right now could benefit Ukraine is naive: Russia is not becoming more malleable or more amenable to compromise. In fact, the Kremlin’s aspirations to reshape the whole international order through violent conflict may be more ambitious now than they were a year ago.

Russia continues marshaling resources for its devastating war. And Russians’ support for Putin’s invasion has not collapsed: not when Ukraine’s Western allies imposed sanctions on the Russian economy, not when some Russians protested mobilization, and not when the mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin staged his curious rebellion in June 2023.

But the war is not lost for Ukraine. Far from it. Enamored of Kyiv’s early successes and high morale, Ukraine’s supporters became accustomed to stunning Ukrainian triumphs. Yet this David-versus-Goliath framing of the war now generates too much pessimism when Ukrainian forces struggle or come to a deadlock with Russian troops. Even a stalemate, as frustrating as it seems, represents a huge accomplishment. Before February 2022, the idea that Ukraine could achieve military parity with Russia would have seemed fanciful. With the West’s help, however, Ukraine has deterred its much more powerful neighbor. Over a year into the war, Russia has been unable to take Kyiv or any major Ukrainian city besides Mariupol. Despite its vast economic and military resources, Russia has not been truly on the offensive since the early summer of 2022.

To make progress now, Western and Ukrainian leaders need to rally around achievable strategic goals. The most pressing is the containment of Russian forces—not only to protect all that Ukraine has already accomplished but also to render Russia’s presence on Ukrainian territory as insecure as possible. Russian positions must be continuously pressured in a forward-leaning approach. This will not be doable without U.S. military support, justified not by the claim that victory is around the corner but by the argument that containing Russia is a core European and U.S. interest. Containment is a policy that is already succeeding in Ukraine. Failure would be giving up on it.

During the war’s first six months, Ukraine was chronically underestimated. Then in September and October 2022, Ukrainian forces punched through Russian lines around Kharkiv and expelled Russian forces from Kherson. Western allies came to see these battlefield triumphs as setting a precedent. Ahead of last June’s counteroffensive, which was planned over the course of months, many in the West believed that the Ukrainian military’s innovativeness, determination, talent for strategy, and flexible command structures would confer the same advantages they did in 2022. By the summer of 2023, the war had already become grueling and devastating, and the hope was that Ukraine could fairly quickly change the momentum for good.

The West’s optimism about the counteroffensive also stemmed from the scale and quality of its military assistance to Ukraine. Over the course of the spring of 2023, the United States and European countries sent Kyiv some of their best weaponry: advanced tanks, rockets, and missiles, although their pace was initially slow, and they withheld certain systems such as F-16 fighter jets and long-range ATACMS missiles. In Foreign Affairs in June 2023, Gideon Rose argued that “Western military support and Ukraine’s remarkable ability to transform it into battlefield success” could carry Ukraine to victory and restore its pre-2014 borders.

The Russian military, meanwhile, appeared to suffer from poor coordination, poor motivation, and a general sense of purposelessness. With the counteroffensive, Kyiv planned to cut through Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and destroy Russian morale. Just two weeks after the counteroffensive began with assaults in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and drone strikes inside Russia, Moscow’s accelerating misfortunes culminated in Prigozhin’s mutiny. For weeks, Putin’s grip on power seemed more fragile than it had ever been.

Just a few months later, however, the situation looks less propitious for Ukraine. Putin has stabilized his government and his military command structure. As of late 2023, constraints on resources and manpower are more evident on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian one. The long preparation time required to ready the counteroffensive allowed Russia to build defenses, particularly mine belts, which nullified many of Ukraine’s advantages in sophisticated weaponry. To regain momentum, Ukraine has asked the West for ammunition, electronic warfare and mine-breaching technology, longer-range missiles, and more planes. But as Ukraine’s needs grew, the United States fractured politically. A small band of Republican legislators are now using their leverage over moderate Republicans to try to halt funding for Ukraine. Mike Johnson, the new Speaker of the House, has voted repeatedly against Ukraine support packages but recently spoke more favorably about backing Kyiv. It is impossible to know, however, if he has the intent or the ability to ensure a useful level of assistance.

Ukraine’s stocks of ammunition and weaponry are already running short. A diminution of or end to U.S. military support would have an immediate effect on Ukraine’s battlefield performance, especially its air defenses. Those air defenses rely on interceptors, a component the United States can provide. If the U.S. government becomes less willing to fund Ukraine’s military efforts, no other country can fill the vacuum. European countries lack the ammunition stockpiles and the military production capacity. In March 2023, the EU pledged to send a million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine by March 2024, but they are at risk of falling short. As of late November 2023, less than a third of the promised supplies had been delivered.

Even if the United States and Europe fulfill all their commitments to help Kyiv militarily, the war may not swing decisively in Ukraine’s favor. The United States has approved the delivery of coveted F-16s in 2024, but they may be less helpful when they eventually arrive. According to Zaluzhny, Russia has improved its air defenses and will maintain “superiority in weapons, equipment, missiles, and ammunition for a considerable time.” As the war enters its second winter, Russia has been stockpiling missiles to attack the Ukrainian electrical grid and thus undermine Ukraine’s morale and economy.

These bolded and italicized paragraphs are both in logical opposition to each other and also the reason that Ukraine finds itself making slow, though real, progress. Take this paragraph:

The West’s optimism about the counteroffensive also stemmed from the scale and quality of its military assistance to Ukraine. Over the course of the spring of 2023, the United States and European countries sent Kyiv some of their best weaponry: advanced tanks, rockets, and missiles, although their pace was initially slow, and they withheld certain systems such as F-16 fighter jets and long-range ATACMS missiles. In Foreign Affairs in June 2023, Gideon Rose argued that “Western military support and Ukraine’s remarkable ability to transform it into battlefield success” could carry Ukraine to victory and restore its pre-2014 borders.

More at the link!

The key portion is “Over the course of the spring of 2023, the United States and European countries sent Kyiv some of their best weaponry: advanced tanks, rockets, and missiles, although their pace was initially slow, and they withheld certain systems such as F-16 fighter jets and long-range ATACMS missiles.” The pace wasn’t initially slow, THE PACE HAS ALWAYS BEEN SLOW!!!! IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN SLOW BECAUSE THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION’S STRATEGY IS RISK AVERSE!!!!

And that’s why this assessment in the penultimate paragraph is true: “Ukraine’s stocks of ammunition and weaponry are already running short.” Yes they are, because we are dribbling stuff to them. Because the Biden administration’s strategy for supporting Ukraine DID NOT INCLUDE GETTING A LONG TERM LEGISLATIVE FUNDING PACKAGE THROUGH CONGRESS WHEN THE DEMOCRATS HAD THE MAJORITY IN BOTH CHAMBERS!!!! This strategic malpractice was the result of hubris. The belief that the Democrats would hold their five seat majority in the House despite the additional extreme gerrymanders and extreme voter suppression that the Republicans put into place in the states where they have trifectas prior to the 2022 midterms. This was aboidable and preventable. But it would have taken a far better senior national security team than the Biden administration has. Just being better than Trump and his team is neither acceptable, nor sufficient.

The failure to provide both the necessary and sufficient support to Ukraine is f”or want of a nail” elevated to official American national security policy and strategy. It’s a disgraced. We should be ashamed.

That’s enough for tonight.

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