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War for Ukraine Day 642: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

by Adam L Silverman|  November 27, 20239:33 pm| 33 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Israel, Military, Open Threads, Palestine, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two nights ago and again last night way2blue asked the following question:

I was asking about Orban–who seems intend on thwarting Ukraine’s integration into the EU. Specifically next month’s vote to initiate the process. Just wondering how you see this political maneuvering playing out. The prospects for suspending Hungary’s voting privilege owing to failure to adhere to EU principles… [One can hope.]

Adam, I also read today that Orban is attempting to block Ukraine’s next step in obtaining EU membership.

I don’t expect that the EU is going to suspend Hungary’s voting privileges.  I do expect the appropriate folks will continue to work on Orban quietly and behind the scenes. The question is going to be what does Orban actually want in exchange for not making trouble here. Once the appropriate EU folks get that clarified, then we’ll have to wait and see if they go with carrots or sticks.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

It is important for every community to do everything possible now to avoid casualties due to bad weather – address by the President of Ukraine

27 November 2023 – 22:14

Dear Ukrainians!

A few results of the day.

First. Since this morning I have been receiving reports on the situation in our regions affected by the bad weather. Almost 1,500 settlements in 17 regions were cut off from electricity. Power engineers are working everywhere to restore electricity supply. As soon as it is possible, electricity will be restored in every city and village. At the moment, hundreds of people and hundreds of vehicles of the State Emergency Service alone are working around the clock. The National Police and the National Guard are also helping. Public utilities are involved as well. I am grateful to everyone in the regional and local authorities who promptly joined in to help people and gives results. In every community, it is important to do everything possible to avoid casualties due to bad weather. Unfortunately, as of now, there are casualties. The highest number is in Odesa region – five people died. My condolences to the families and friends. At least 19 people were injured. Everyone has been provided with the necessary assistance. Operational headquarters at both the national and regional levels will continue to work until the situation is normalized. The epicenter of the cyclone is now moving to the northern regions – we are ready to help everywhere. There were also reports on helping drivers on blocked roads. I am grateful to the volunteers who support people in the communities. It is very important to take care of those who live alone, to help the elderly. Today I would like to recognize the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, the National Guard and the National Police. They provide assistance around the clock. In particular, the emergency workers of the Odesa region. These days, Captain Serhiy Lisin, head of the guard of the 45th state fire and rescue unit, Master Sergeant Ruslan Buhayev, driver of the 7th state fire and rescue unit, Master Sergeant Petro Kalaman, electrician driver of the rescue department of the 20th state fire and rescue unit have particularly proven themselves. And also the national guardsmen: Soldier Serhiy Dimov, Captain Serhiy Melnyk and Colonel Volodymyr Lytvyniuk. I thank you and all your colleagues for helping people!

I also had important international conversations today. In particular, with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. We discussed the situation in the Middle East, current events and prospects. We also spoke about the development of our bilateral relations and joint work for the full implementation of the Peace Formula. Saudi Arabia has been very helpful in this area, and I am grateful for that. I also spoke with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Of course, we talked about the European Union’s preparation of a decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine – we are doing everything our country has to do. We also talked about the continuation of the EU’s support for our country next year. Also today, I addressed the participants of the session of the International Maritime Organization, one of the most respectable institutions in the world that deals with security – maritime security. I informed them about Ukraine’s successes in the Black Sea – what Ukrainians have done to restore normal sea routes in the Black Sea. I thanked for the support of our efforts and called for bringing Russia to a just and well-deserved accountability for its aggression and terror, for violating all the fundamental freedoms and rules that underpin the international order.

Today I also held a preparatory meeting on various international events planned for the coming weeks and until the end of the year. We clearly see the Ukrainian perspective and what is needed to achieve our goals. Every day we work with our partners to provide new defense support packages for our warriors. I signed another decree on awarding our soldiers and officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with state awards – 115 servicemen. In total, 64,258 servicemen from all the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine have received state awards since February 24 and up to now. Massive bravery, massive resilience, massive determination to ensure that Ukraine gains the upper hand in this war. I thank everyone who is fighting for Ukraine and Ukrainians! I thank all the commanders who care about the lives of soldiers! I thank everyone who is focused on making our country stronger – our entire country. You cannot win this battle alone – we can only do it together, everyone who cares about one another and Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

⚡️"Don't tell me that you can't afford to mobilize your industry and will so that Ukraine wins."

Retired British general Sir Richard Barrons addressed European officials and opinion leaders at a forum in Lucerne, Switzerland.

“You imagine an economy of 15 trillion euros a… pic.twitter.com/gmwCO2k2hE

— BLYSKAVKA (@blyskavka_ua) November 26, 2023

⚡️”Don’t tell me that you can’t afford to mobilize your industry and will so that Ukraine wins.”

Retired British general Sir Richard Barrons addressed European officials and opinion leaders at a forum in Lucerne, Switzerland.

“You imagine an economy of 15 trillion euros a year. Give me 75 billion euros a year for 2-3 years, and I will make sure that the Ukrainian army wins. It’s not about whether it’s affordable. It’s about choice, about competence “, – he said.

👉
@Flash_news_ua

Here’s General Sir Richard Barrons’ full address:

Here’s a longer take on Orban from Illia Ponomarenko:

Hate to break it to all those newly-minted Ukraine experts like this guy Viktor Orban, but there IS, and there always HAS BEEN a "battlefield solution" for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Moreover, it's possible and affordable for the Free World, and them motherkissers know this…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 27, 2023

Hate to break it to all those newly-minted Ukraine experts like this guy Viktor Orban, but there IS, and there always HAS BEEN a “battlefield solution” for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Moreover, it’s possible and affordable for the Free World, and them motherkissers know this perfectly well.

That’s why they can’t stop whining about a “ceasefire”, a “compromise,” “concessions for peace,” or a “realistic approach” — or, what’s even more cynical, they try to pretend they act in good faith and have some high moral ground to lecture those stupid little Ukrainians on how they need to surrender to Russian occupation to “save lives.”

Especially now that the Free World is being tempted to go the easiest way of having a raw deal with the devil.

They know that, and they keep pushing those weak spots.

Over the last 20 months, Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated that a “military solution” is a thing — when it has the instruments necessary.

It did so as it derailed and defeated Russia’s blitzkrieg in North Ukraine in March 2022, particularly at Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy, and inflicted devastation the Soviet/Russian military hadn’t seen in decades.

It did so later on by having the Russian military drastically exhausted in the Battle of Donbas between April and August 2022 and stabilizing the front line.

I did so in September 2022 by successfully accomplishing an offensive operation in Kharkiv Oblast, which ultimately set the Battle of Kharkiv as a Ukrainian victory, liberated most of the oblast, and brushed off Russia’s key supply line and the north axis of its effort to encircle Donbas.

Remember all those stupid posters “Kherson is Russia forever”?

Yeah, you were right to forget — because on November 11, 2022, we were jumping around in joy and popping up champagne to celebrate the Ukrainian military retaking the only regional capital Russia had managed to capture since February 24.

Ukraine has repeatedly proved the “military solution” possible by having mastered dozens of Western-provided weapons & hardware items, from advanced tank killers to artillery pieces, radars, armored vehicles, air defense, cruise missiles, rocket systems, etc — and moreover, setting a range of milestones in the practice of modern warfare and military history.

Ukraine did so by still holding on, staying an organized firm nation, and fighting despite everything for over 600 days against the world’s leading nuclear power with the 3rd largest military spending.

This recitation can go on and on. The history of the last 20 months is the story of Ukraine achieving so much with so little it has.

No one’s talking about the Ukrainan military putting the flag over the ruins of the Kremlin.

What needs to be done is inflicting Russia’s military in Ukraine a kind of defeat that would greatly undermine Russia’s ability to go on with this war — militarily, socially, economically, politically, and logistically — and make the Kremlin seek negotiations, with Ukraine speaking from a position of strength.

Moreover, a “battlefield solution”, i.e. derailing Russia’s ability to wage large-scale wars for years to come is effectively the ONLY way to ensure peace and prevent yet another, an even more bloodletting European war within a short period of time.

Vladimir Putin doesn’t give a flying fuck about all the “tragedy” of the war he unleashed or about all the “loss of life” on his hands.

He only needs “negotiations” and “a ceasefire that Ukraine doesn’t want” to let his military get a respite from hostilities, regroup, rearm, reinforce — and launch a new attack on Ukraine.

After the initial defeat of his ‘special military operation’ and numerous mortifying setbacks in Ukraine, it’s very personal to him and his bruised ego.

He wants and needs Ukraine in ashes coughing its own blood.

In February 2022, he took the biggest gamble of his life and he very suddenly lost.

Now he’s a hostage of the mess of his own making, and he will not stop until he’s stopped. He’s in power in the Kremlin and alive as long as the war goes on and he’s not yet the one who led Russia to a humiliating strategic defeat to its former colony.

And surprise-surprise, Ukraine doesn’t want to die to make things easier for somebody. At all.

So any sort of speculations on “putting this war to an end via concessions”, “a diplomatic solution”, etc is nothing but escapist sweet talk ignoring the grim reality, to say the least.

Those not happy about the state of things are more than welcome to send their complaints and grievances to Vladimir V. Putin in the Kremlin, Moscow, Russia.

There’s nothing that stands in the way of Ukraine willingly getting this giant problem effectively solved militarily — nothing but the lack of the Free World’s leadership, resolve, the ability to finally get out of its comfort zone and stop being obsessed with excessive risk management and the paralyzing fear of historical decisions.

Since February 24, 2022, we’ve made a grand way forward together. It’s been way too long and history-making to just drop it and give up in the middle of it.

Chronically half-hearted decisions, painful procrastination, keeping heads deep in the sand, looking for easy solutions, and pleasing domestic extremists openly advocating the aggressor are just taking us nowhere.

Yes, the West can give Ukraine everything it needs to save itself and ensure sustainable peace instead of a hoax that will inevitably end up with many crying “WE TOLD YOU!”

That’s why the enemies of the Free World can’t stop talking it out of this.

 

Kyiv:

Княгиня Ольга у бронежилеті й обстріляний вагон Укрзалізниці на Михайлівській площі – реалії 2023-ого #Київ pic.twitter.com/9K64r1cxJj

— Красень Київ (@adrozd83) November 27, 2023

Princess Olga in a bulletproof vest and a Ukrzaliznytsia car under fire on Mykhailivska Square – the realities of 2023 #Київ

Greetings from Kyiv! ❄️⛄️ Prepared for the snowstorm, the city is efficiently handling these icy flurries pic.twitter.com/zCvqPtSoel

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 27, 2023

Odesa:

The Kyiv-Odesa highway is blocked with snowdrifts 160 km from Odesa. Meanwhile, massive waves up to 9 meters high are pounding Ukraine's Black Sea coasts from Odesa to Crimea. pic.twitter.com/bmB5x427Vr

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) November 27, 2023

Avdiivka Front:

Bird eye view on one of the columns/accumulations of destroyed Russian vehicles near Vodyane, Avdiivka front. https://t.co/tiUlGWucil pic.twitter.com/REvDO9SGug

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 27, 2023

Destroyed Russian vehicles as far as the eye can see in the Avdiivka sector.

This is north of Vodyane. The Russian thrust supposed to head north, but the attack was blunted. I will add a map later.

Source: https://t.co/FJZLXhYCpi#Ukraine #Donetsk #Avdiivka pic.twitter.com/FcqABTttsg

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 27, 2023

As mentioned in my previous post, here is the exact point where the destroyed Russian columns are located. Coordinates:

48° 6'46.13"N, 37°40'57.80"E#Ukraine #Donetsk #Avdiivka pic.twitter.com/bh983nB4Gj

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 27, 2023

Russian occupied Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Something is burning in Russian-occupied Horlivka

Source: https://t.co/lBsBwO0ZvH#Ukraine #Horlivka pic.twitter.com/QVS3tCbkfB

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 27, 2023

Elsewhere in Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

/2. Presumably ammunition is detonating after a strike in Donetsk pic.twitter.com/ytBhEinzqb

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 27, 2023

Russian occupied Crimea:

First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

1/ This post covers the recent developments in the defenses near the Kerch Bridge. Thanks to daily imagery from Planet and taking advantage of Sentinel-1 SAR, we have a bird's eye view of the defenses to defend the bridge from USV attacks. pic.twitter.com/y2em9u2g3V

— Brian (@BrianE6B) November 27, 2023

2/ A post from Mash, pictures of the barrages with spikes surfaced online. They were scheduled to be placed near the Kerch–Yenikale Canal under the Kerch Bridge to prevent USV attacks by Ukraine, which in the past has been successful in rendering the bridge unusable for months.Image
3/ Upon further investigation using Planet 3M imagery, these booms have started to be placed near the canal, defending the bridge from other attacks in 3 separate lengths, allowing easy removal if ships pass through the path.Image
4/ After acquiring a SkySat satellite image, the booms bear similarity to the ones being placed at the Sebastopol port; one can even note the barrages that are connected to them via a cable to ensure the booms stay in place and allow easy control to change their positions.Image
5/ A timelapse of the region using Sentinel-1 SAR due to cloud cover in many Planet 3M images was used to show the defenses’ progression accurately. A custom script allows easy delineation of the bridge and the boom barrier.  
6/ Nevertheless, I have also added a Planet 3M time lapse of the region for the October to November timeframe, which shows how the barrier is removed to allow easy passage of ships. The barrages play a vital role in this matter. 
7/ In the recent storms that ravaged the regions of Crimea, the booms have either been washed away due to rough seas or have been removed to prevent any damage to the booms. The storm has filled the water with silt, making it harder to know the status of the placed defenses.Image
8/ Thus, I can confidently say that these booms were present to defend the bridge from USV attacks from Ukraine. Only time can tell what the results from this Russian “innovation” will yield when the next attack against the bridge comes. 
@HamWa07 @VelvetBlade @Tatarigami_UA @jekubi @exit266 @MT_Anderson @Dmojavensis @VeritasViper @Schizointel @CovertShores @scil_int 

Ryazan, Russia:

Drone attack/air defence activity reported in Ryazan. 470km from Ukraine border. pic.twitter.com/Byely1iNwf

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 27, 2023

Sochi, Russia:

The storm over the Black Sea flooded parts of Sochi, Russia.

Source: https://t.co/mdrZxCXk3f#Russia #Sochi #BlackSea pic.twitter.com/ybklF2qymN

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 27, 2023

The Black Sea storm caused some considerable damage along the Russian coast, including at some rail tracks. This is near Adler (Sochi).

Source: https://t.co/AJPChu4gUN#Russia #Sochi pic.twitter.com/WxvivfzA7B

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 27, 2023

Turkey:

Turkey’s exports to Russia of goods vital for Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine have soared this year https://t.co/pr1wOEyFbU pic.twitter.com/InEMmwTwjz

— Financial Times (@FT) November 27, 2023

From The Financial Times:

Turkey’s exports to Russia of goods vital for Moscow’s war machine have soared this year, heightening concerns among the US and its allies that the country is acting as a conduit for sensitive items from their own manufacturers.

The growing trade, and the corresponding rise in imports to Turkey of 45 civilian materials used by Russia’s military, has undermined US and European attempts to curb Moscow’s ability to equip its armed forces, fuelling tensions between Ankara and its Nato partners.

In a sign of how it has become a priority in Washington to rein in this trade, Brian Nelson, US Treasury under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, will visit Istanbul and Ankara this week, where he is set to discuss “efforts to prevent, disrupt and investigate trade and financial activity that benefit the Russian effort in its war against Ukraine”.

It will be Nelson’s second trip to Turkey this year and comes amid indications that some dual-use parts — identified by the US and its allies as being of particular value to the war — are being transported directly to Russia even when they have been labelled as going to another country.

Efforts to cut off this ghost trade to Russia have been complicated as the items have both commercial and military applications.

In the first nine months of 2023, Turkey reported $158mn of exports of 45 goods the US lists as “high-priority” to Russia and five former Soviet countries suspected of acting as intermediaries for Moscow. That was three times the level recorded over the same period in 2022, when the war in Ukraine began.

The average figure for 2015-21 was $28mn, according to a Financial Times analysis of data from customs database Trade Data Monitor.

The 45 categories of goods, which include items such as microchips, communications equipment and parts such as telescopic sights, are subject to US, EU, Japanese and UK export controls aimed at preventing them from entering Russia. But these can be circumvented by companies using middlemen structures to disguise their ultimate destinations.

Turkey’s imports of high-priority goods from G7 countries are up more than 60 per cent so far this year compared with the same periods between 2015 and 2021 to nearly $500mn.

The trade flourishes by exploiting regulatory gaps between US export controls and EU enforcement, according to Emily Kilcrease, director of the Energy, Economics and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security think-tank.

“With some of the third-party countries like Turkey, we’re really at a weaker enforcement position than we’d ultimately like to be,” said Kilcrease, a former deputy assistant US trade representative. “We really have to lean on those countries to take enforcement actions in their own jurisdictions, to get at the specific entities that are facilitating the trans-shipment.”

Turkey, along with the United Arab Emirates, often serves as an intermediary destination for Russian entities seeking to exploit multistage import routes to get around controls, said a European sanctions official. It was particularly used to procure European goods, the official added.

Official data from Turkey showed a surge in declarations of exports of high-priority goods to ex-Soviet nations Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, but those countries’ statistical agencies have not recorded a matching rise in imports.

These large discrepancies suggest that items reported by Turkey as destined for intermediaries were instead being transported directly to Russia, analysts said. Kazakhstan recorded high-priority goods imports from Turkey of $6.1mn in the year to September, but Turkey’s data shows exports of those goods to Kazakhstan amounted to $66mn over the same period.

“It’s obvious these goods are going to Russia,” said Elina Ribakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics think-tank and vice-president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics.

More at the link.

For you drone enthusiasts:

Ukrainian drone operators vs. russian armored vehicles and manpower.

📹: 93rd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/hfBEhVbI1m

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 27, 2023

And for you HIMARS fans:

The effective counter-battery fight.

🇺🇦HIMARS destroyed russian 152-mm 2S3 "Akatsiya" self-propelled howitzer.

📹: Operational Command South pic.twitter.com/CR8TFBRCUZ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 27, 2023

Obligatory:

Just a quick update on the Israel-Hamas truce before we finish up for the night. For a second day in a row Hamas had held up their transfer of hostages. The sticking point this time is that they’re still not returning mothers with their children.

The IDF already says Hamas violated agreement by releasing Hila Rotem without her mother on day two. Whether this is resolved soon remains to be seen. Israel, Hamas and the US, with Qatar mediating, are currently negotiating.

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) November 27, 2023

Sources confirm to CNN that Israel and Hamas are close to resolving issues on the fourth release of hostages. There is a new list that includes additional mothers, signaling day four is on track as Israel-Hamas are discussing a *two day* extension.

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) November 27, 2023

They also did not release the Thai hostages that they agreed to release:

💥11 Israelis. Despite assurances, the six Thai hostages appear not to have been released. pic.twitter.com/cjKFt7GcYJ

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) November 27, 2023

Hamas is also playing games with the transfer of the hostages to ICRC control:

Once again, Hamas has released hostages to the Red Cross in a more urban area of Gaza and done nothing to stop people from jumping on the Red Cross vehicles.

Hamas could easily clear the roads for the convoy but they choose not to. pic.twitter.com/ixUEeMWnzB

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) November 27, 2023

All of this is Sinwar trying to demonstrate dominance.

Israel and Hamas have, apparently, reached an agreement for a two day extension of the truce.

An Israeli official confirms an agreement has been reached on extending the pause in fighting in Gaza by 2 days in return for the release of 10 additional hostages every day

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) November 27, 2023

The issue will be, as I indicated last night, is that Hamas does not know the whereabouts of 40 or more of the women and children hostages. So they’ve either found another twenty, or they’re playing games. We’ll know sometime on Wednesday which one it is.

For those who think Bibi is done or is going to somehow go away easily, Bibi has other ideas:

… and "the Americans didn't want us to go underground. They didn't want us to go into Shifa Hospital and we did it too. I know Biden for 49 years & I know how to talk to US public opinion."
He's not done and 1200 citizens murdered hasn't changed him. pic.twitter.com/Rwfi2BSoy2

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) November 27, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

:(

♬ where is my mind piano version. – i love you too much <3

If one of our Ukrainian readers would be so kind as to put the translation of the text in the video into a comment, I would greatly appreciate it.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 642: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have AnswersPost + Comments (33)

Absent Friends: Rest in Peace, Rosalynn Carter

by Anne Laurie|  November 27, 20235:49 pm| 85 Comments

This post is in: Absent Friends, Excellent Links


Hey ?@JasonIsbell? you may not have known it, but you wrote this about my grandparents. Jimmy and Rosalynn. From a small town in Georgia. They were the flagship of the fleet for sure. https://t.co/4VPuG0QqcJ

— Jason Carter (@SenatorCarter) November 22, 2023

Jason we all grieve for your grandmother and your beautiful family. I truly wish there were more Carters in the world. My love to y’all. https://t.co/FOS1ljTlMf

— Jason Isbell (@JasonIsbell) November 22, 2023

The Carter presidency, and its ending, has a particular resonance as one of those historical turning points… where the quiet courage of building a better world was crushed by a revanchist I got mine, Jack! autocracy with a grinning ‘optimistic’ figurehead to assure us that all was for the best (white, particularly white male, people) in this best of all possible worlds. We did not (and I have to include myself — I voted for John Anderson, which cured me of third-party candidates forever) choose wisely, that year.

All the living First Ladies will attend Rosalynn Carter’s memorial service: Jill Biden, Melania Trump, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Laura Bush. pic.twitter.com/VB0VCqhwCG

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) November 27, 2023

show full post on front page

Repost, per People Magazine:

… On Monday, Nov. 27, ceremonies will begin with a wreath-laying at Georgia Southwestern State University’s Rosalynn Carter Health and Human Sciences Complex. The former first lady will then be taken to the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, where members of the public are invited to pay respects while she lies in repose from 6 to 10 p.m.

On Tuesday, Nov. 28, the Carter motorcade will move to Emory University’s Glenn Memorial Church for a private tribute service, and on Wednesday, Nov. 28, a formal funeral service for family and friends will take place at Maranatha Baptist Church in Plains.

The public is welcomed to line the family’s motorcade route after the funeral service before she is privately interred at the Carter family’s residence, near the home she and President Carter built more than 60 years ago…

 

As Rosalynn Carter’s health steadily faded Saturday night, her husband, Jimmy Carter, sat beside her bed in his wheelchair. The 96-year-old former first lady’s journey from the tiny farming town of Plains, Ga., to the White House ended where it began. https://t.co/TPuxIRcq6S

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 23, 2023


Gift link, with a trigger warning:

As Rosalynn Carter’s health steadily faded Saturday night, her husband, Jimmy Carter, sat beside her bed in his wheelchair.

At 96, she had an infection that had not improved with antibiotics. The day before, she had entered hospice in her home, and her caregivers shifted from trying to prolong life to making her last days more comfortable.

“My Dad told her he loved her and thanked her for all the wonderful things she had done,” said James E. “Chip” Carter III, who was in his parents’ bedroom with other family members. “Then he asked us to leave so he could be alone with her.”

The 99-year-old former president sat holding the hand of the former first lady, his wife of 77 years, for about half an hour. “I’m sure he was praying,” Chip Carter said.

Then, late Saturday, aides helped Jimmy into his own hospital bed. It had been placed feet-to-feet with his wife’s hospital bed, so the Carters could be propped up and face each other and talk.

But when the sun rose, Rosalynn was no longer able to speak. At 2:10 p.m. Sunday, with Jimmy looking at her from his bed, Rosalynn’s journey from the tiny farming town of Plains, Ga., to the White House and national fame ended where it began…

Jimmy Carter was never one to sugarcoat difficulties. His unvarnished talk as president about the challenges the United States faced was often cited as a reason he lost his bid for a second term to Republican nominee Ronald Reagan in 1980. When it came to mental health issues, Rosalynn was an early advocate for more frank public discussion.

It was no different with aging; family members said the Carters also felt no need to hide the effects of growing old. Earlier this year, Jimmy Carter decided to publicly disclose his wife’s dementia diagnosis.

While many famous people guard their image and hide frailty, the Carters did not. Two months ago, they rode through crowds gathered at Plains’ biggest festival, making no effort to hide their declining health. It was a urinary tract infection, a health problem that is particularly common among older women, which her body ultimately could not fight off…

Former President Jimmy Carter, who has been in hospice care since February, is expected to attend his wife Rosalynn Carter’s memorial service in Atlanta on Tuesday. pic.twitter.com/DHYAGw3qA2

— The Recount (@therecount) November 27, 2023

Gift article. No paywall.

How Rosalynn Carter broke the mold and made her place in history https://t.co/ATldozE2ef

— Cuppa Joe (@jbattTX) November 21, 2023

From Karen Tumulty at the Washington Post, “How Rosalynn Carter broke the mold and made her place in history”;

Rosalynn Carter began her tenure as the nation’s first lady with a radical act.

Instead of swanning into the 1977 inaugural balls wrapped in a showstopping couture confection, she opted for the dated ice-blue chiffon gown she had worn for her husband’s gubernatorial inauguration six years before, and at least once since then. It was designed by someone no one had ever heard of and bought in a medium-priced store in Americus, Ga.

The media did not treat her selection kindly, and as the New York Times noted: “Mutters were then heard from members of the fashion industry who felt a First Lady could ill afford such a sentimental gesture.”

This was, to be sure, a reflection of Carter’s modesty, frugality and practicality. (She also let it be known that she had brought her sewing machine to the White House.) But how she dressed was also a statement of how little interest she had in serving as a mere ornament to her husband’s presidency…

… Rosalynn Carter arrived at a time when women’s roles were changing at every level of society. And, according to Paul Costello, who was her assistant press secretary, the new first lady took to heart a bit of counsel from her own outspoken predecessor. “Betty Ford gave her wise advice: Do what you want to do because no matter what you do, you will be criticized,” Costello told me.

Still, the first lady was taken aback by the stir she created when, in the second year of the Carter presidency, she began showing up at Cabinet meetings and quietly taking notes…

… Less than a month after the inauguration, she held her first solo news conference to announce the formation of a presidential commission on mental health — an issue that would become her biggest cause.

“The next morning when I picked up the Washington Post to read about it I found not one word about the commission or the press conference,” she recalled. This newspaper instead ran a story about how the Carters had established a policy against serving hard liquor at White House functions.

But the first lady continued to press against the constraints, and in breaking her own path, she would make it easier for those who followed — including Hillary Clinton…

Absent Friends: Rest in Peace, Rosalynn CarterPost + Comments (85)

Open Thread: More Like This, Please

by WaterGirl|  November 27, 20232:52 pm| 209 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

When I was in college, I took a Japanese Tea Ceremony class.  The instructor was a man who came from Hiroshima or Nagasaki, a man who could have been bitter and angry, but instead saw great worth in what the United States stood for.  In spite of past injustice, he was a patriot in support of the US.

I see the same thing in George Takei.

More like this, please.

Open Thread: More Like This, Please

George Takei, on Twitter:

A Democrat was in the White House when my family was sent to the internment camps in 1941. It was an egregious violation of our human and civil rights.

It would have been understandable if people like me said they’d never vote for a Democrat again, given what had been done to us.

But being a liberal, being a progressive, means being able to look past my own grievances and concerns and think of the greater good.

It means working from within the Democratic party to make it better, even when it has betrayed its values. I went on to campaign for Adlai Stevenson when I became an adult.

I marched for civil rights and had the honor of meeting Dr. Martin Luther King. I fought for redress for my community and have spent my life ensuring that America understood that we could not betray our Constitution in such a way ever again.

Bill Clinton broke my heart when he signed DOMA into law. It was a slap in the face to the LGBTQ community. And I knew that we still had much work to do. But I voted for him again in 1996 despite my misgivings, because the alternative was far worse.

And my obligation as a citizen was to help choose the best leader for it, not to check out by not voting out of anger or protest.

There is no leader who will make the decision you want her or him to make 100 percent of the time.

Your vote is a tool of hope for a better world.

Use it wisely, for it is precious.

Use it for others, for they are in need of your support, too.

Totally open thread.

Open Thread: More Like This, PleasePost + Comments (209)

SunBund Brief (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  November 27, 202312:51 pm| 128 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

Someone — maybe Churchill? — is rumored to have said Americans always do the right thing, eventually, after exhausting all other possibilities first. America’s Wang has a different M.O.; Florida always does the wrong thing, then does the wrong thing again and then gets buyer’s remorse when it’s too late to mitigate the damage. Exhibit A, from Florida Politics:

New Florida polling shows Ron DeSantis out of favor with voters in the state, a stunning shift in the year since his successful re-election.

The Cygnal poll of 800 likely General Election voters, reported first by Florida Politics, reveals the Florida Governor is at 50% disapproval against 47% approval.

Though 85% of Republican registrants and 87% of those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election still regard the Governor favorably in the poll conducted Nov. 11 — 13, other sub-groups have soured on DeSantis early in his second term.

Well, I’m glad those chuckle-fuck independents and assorted others finally got smacked upside the head with a clue-by-four and caught up with the 50% of Democrats in the state who bothered to show up to vote in 2022. But it’s too goddamn late now.

Unless Trump chokes on a Filet-O-Fish, we’re stuck with Hinky Boots as governor until 2000-and-fucking-26. Just imagine the havoc he can wreak in that interval. Oh wait, we don’t have to imagine it. Here’s a progress report on a DeSantis hire from Politico:

‘This guy is a charlatan’: University of Florida turns against Joe Ladapo
Colleagues say the state surgeon general rarely is on campus and has “sullied” the reputation of the flagship school.

Ya think? Your humble correspondent/Florida grad figured that shit out long before DeSantis hired Ladapo and UF gave him tenure, i.e., when the crackpot physician stood alongside the “demon sperm” doctor to spread dangerous lies about COVID-19 mitigation efforts in 2020.

Ladapo earns a $250,000 salary as surgeon general and a $262,000 salary from UF, according to state and university records.

But some of Ladapo’s UF College of Medicine colleagues were concerned he bypassed crucial vetting during his whirlwind hiring process, regardless of whether it was legal…

“For some reason the medical and public health communities aren’t outright investigating him … probably because he isn’t operating as a scientist or a faculty member,” [United Faculty of Florida-University of Florida President Meera] Sitharam said in an email. “He is operating in the murky world where public health is held hostage to political fortunes, which is in part because public trust in health related institutions has been deeply eroded.”

Yep, and we know exactly who eroded it too.

Meanwhile, Ladapo’s boss, the governor, is threatening to bomb the Bahamas?

Gov. Ron DeSantis continues to let people in the Bahamas know it’s a bad idea for anyone to be “firing rockets” at South Florida.

During remarks Tuesday in Manchester, New Hampshire, the 2024 presidential candidate once again analogized the war between Israel and Hamas to a hypothetical involving a malefactor shooting missiles from the Bahamas toward the state he runs.

“You know, as Governor of Florida, if somebody from the Bahamas was firing rockets into Fort Lauderdale, we would not accept that,” He said. “We would flatten it, like, in no time. We would never accept that happening to our people.”

It wasn’t just a one-off — that’s a stump speech line. But I’m pretty sure Joe Biden controls the ordnance, not Ron DeSantis. Let’s keep it that way.

Open thread.

SunBund Brief (Open Thread)Post + Comments (128)

FINAL CHECK: Find Your Guys in 2024 Pets of Balloon Juice Calendar B! (deadline 9 am Tuesday)

by WaterGirl|  November 27, 20239:51 am| 31 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Update 7:30 pm on Monday:  Calendars will be ready to order on Wednesday.

Good morning!

There were some requests to add a pet to the calendar, but there were too many to squeeze in, and not nearly enough to make another calendar, so that option didn’t turn out to be feasible.

But we can do a Favorite Dogs & Cats series in December, like we did last year, so you can share your pets with us! 

Favorite Dogs & Cats Series

And we can absolutely make your pet photo into a postcard for sale on Cafe Press, if you are interested.  We just need a high resolution photo, and an image that works with the shape of a postcard – in either portrait or landscape.

Please find your guys in Calendar B and let us know in the comments if we are missing a heart – or if there is a heart where there shouldn’t be one!

These are low-resolution for posting on the blog, but the calendar itself is very high resolution.

show full post on front page

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

Calendar A was in the previous post!

The one thing we ask is that you put Calendar A feedback in the Calendar A post, and put the Calendar B feedback in the Calendar B post.

FINAL CHECK: Find Your Guys in 2024 Pets of Balloon Juice Calendar B! (deadline 9 am Tuesday)Post + Comments (31)

FINAL CHECK: Find Your Guys in 2024 Pets of Balloon Juice Calendar A! (deadline 9 am Tuesday)

by WaterGirl|  November 27, 20239:39 am| 23 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Update 7:30 pm on Monday:  Calendars will be ready to order on Wednesday.

Good morning!

There were some requests to add a pet to the calendar, but there were too many to squeeze in, and not nearly enough to make another calendar, so that option didn’t turn out to be feasible.

But we can do a Favorite Dogs & Cats series in December, like we did last year, so you can share your pets with us! 

Favorite Dogs & Cats Series

And we can absolutely make your pet photo into a postcard for sale on Cafe Press, if you are interested.  We just need a high resolution photo, and an image that works with the shape of a postcard – in either portrait or landscape.

Please find your guys in Calendar A and let us know in the comments if we are missing a heart – or if there is a heart where there shouldn’t be one!

These are low-resolution for posting on the blog, but the calendar itself is very high resolution.

show full post on front page

January is the same for both calendars, so no there’s need to check that one.

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

Calendar B will be in the next post!

The one thing we ask is that you put Calendar A feedback in the Calendar A post, and put the Calendar B feedback in the Calendar B post.

FINAL CHECK: Find Your Guys in 2024 Pets of Balloon Juice Calendar A! (deadline 9 am Tuesday)Post + Comments (23)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Thank All the Gods for President Biden

by Anne Laurie|  November 27, 20237:43 am| 209 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Biden: For week I’ve been advocating for a pause in the fighting for two purposes. To increase the assistance getting into the Gaza civilians who need help, and to facilitate release of hostages. We know that innocent children in Gaza are suffering greatly as well pic.twitter.com/W3P4AMsP8t

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 26, 2023

Biden This deal is structured so that it can be extended to keep building on these results. That’s my goal. To keep this pause going beyond tomorrow pic.twitter.com/6iH9voMoEl

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 26, 2023

I'm not sure how people expect things like a ceasefire to survive if when a ceasefire (or humanitarian pause) happens people don't visibly support it. It's good, it's a win. Let people take a victory lap on it and ask them for more.

— Mike Caulfield (@holden) November 26, 2023

show full post on front page

Twice as many hostages released than expected thus far and he did it while making a turkey sandwich in Limerickville. https://t.co/kEdbjJ5xyO

— zeddy (@Zeddary) November 25, 2023

If you try to tell this to the mainstream media, they look at you like you have three heads. All they see is the short staircase, the occasional gaffe, and the comfort sneakers. The idea Biden's deep experience and subtle diplomacy gets things done never enters their thinking https://t.co/9cej5bvDs1

— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) November 26, 2023


 
Meanwhile a Fox News reporter adds a line to his resume:

A Fox reporter says Biden "continues to face questions about his age, even here in Nantucket"

Then he plays a clip of Biden being asked, "Mr. President, are you too old to be running for reelection?"

Without disclosing that the reporter is the one shouting the question pic.twitter.com/qgWNtdJSF6

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) November 26, 2023

“Breaking news: Joe thinks I’m a dumbass. More on this developing story later.” https://t.co/LYLmFvYKF5

— Jean-Michel Connard ?? (@torriangray) November 26, 2023


 

It's easy to "predict" things like this when you control the magic eight ball. The press saying negotiating hostage releases and cease fires won't help Biden can be willed into being by crafting a ~ narrative ~ saying it is so. https://t.co/mJ1xAt25AC

— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) November 25, 2023

Just a reminder since people have short memories.

Promises made, promises kept. Biden removed the Muslim Ban on DAY 1 of his presidency. pic.twitter.com/2gaABhbqGb

— Candidly Tiff (@tify330) November 26, 2023

Monday Morning Open Thread: Thank All the Gods for President BidenPost + Comments (209)

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