Address of the President of Ukraine on the occasion of the Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the Holodomors

25 November 2023 – 09:31

Fellow Ukrainians!

Dear people!

Every year at the end of November, a cold shiver runs down our spine. Regardless of the weather conditions and our location. With coldness in our hearts we are all united by a tragic date – the fourth Saturday of November. The Holodomor Remembrance Day. When we feel great pain and anger at the same time, as it is impossible to forget, understand, and especially forgive the horrific crimes of genocide that the Ukrainian people experienced in the XX century.

Men, women, children. Millions of innocent and murdered. Uncounted and countless. Uncounted at the time. When anything but the truth was written in the “cause of death” column. They callously “wrote off” thousands of people, did not consider it necessary to count, did not consider people as such. Countless in total. How many of them, starved to death, simply fell in the field, on the road, in their own yard? How many were not found? How many were not searched for? When the rulers had one need: for everyone to keep silent, and the relatives had neither the ability nor the energy to search for and prove the truth, and then there was no one left to search. How many are there?

No one knows the exact answer to this question. Just like the answers to other questions. How can one want to kill an entire people? To wipe out an entire nation? How can one take away the very last from people? The last food, the last means of subsistence, the last hope for life and the last chance for salvation? Normal people cannot imagine or understand this. But there is something we know for sure. They tried to exterminate us, to subjugate us, to torture us. They failed. They wanted to conceal the truth from us and hush up the terrible crimes forever. They failed. They wanted to confuse us, to mislead us, to make us not believe, to doubt, to forget, and therefore to forgive. They failed. And today, with utmost sorrow and respect, we honor the memory of millions of our people.

Today, as always, at 4 p.m. sharp, we will light the Candles of Remembrance. Many will be with their families, their children and grandchildren. Some of the young Ukrainians will see this candle for the first time. They will ask about it. And we will tell them the story. This candle will tell them a story that they should know, remember, and pass on to their children and grandchildren, who will tell it to their children and grandchildren. And as long as we keep lighting this fire, the memory of millions of our ancestors will not fade. Who were deliberately, premeditatedly and cynically pushed into the embrace of starvation. Because they were Ukrainians. Because they posed an ideological and class threat to the imperial entity, were free people in spirit, and therefore considered dangerous to the regime and its geopolitical intentions. And then, armed groups went from house to house and took away everything that could be eaten. And then the peasants fell to their knees, begging to leave at least some crumbs for their children, but the savages were ruthless. And then grandparents, parents, and relatives quietly “faded away” in front of their families, refusing to eat “so that the children could have more.” And then entire families, generations, streets and villages disappeared. A tragedy with not only millions of dead, but also millions of unborn. A tragedy that today makes us cry and remain silent, so quietly that the whole world must hear it. This is the sound of Ukrainian pain.

The ideologues, organizers, and perpetrators of those crimes have not been held accountable or punished fairly during their lifetime. But this does not mean that we should forgive and forget. Today, the names and biographies of all the perpetrators must be brought to justice. And they bear the punishment of shame, the stigma of their role in world history, the truth that everyone on the planet should know. The truth that today is the least that can be done to honor the millions of victims. Recognizing those terrible acts against Ukrainians as crimes of genocide is extremely important. This is not a formality. This is the attitude of the civilized world to the truth. This is a tribute to justice.

We thank all the states that have chosen justice and recognized it. Recognized it officially. Recognized the Holodomor as a crime against people, against history, against Ukraine. A deliberate crime. Exactly 30 years ago, Estonia and Australia were the first to do so. Then Canada, Hungary, and Vatican City did the same. Lithuania, Georgia, and Poland followed. Peru, Paraguay, Ecuador, Colombia, and Mexico. Portugal and the United States of America. And when the war broke out, everything became clear to all those who had been in doubt. Everyone saw literally, live, in real time, what modern Russia, which calls itself the successor to the USSR, is capable of. Which enjoys being the heir to the worst crimes and murders of that era. Exactly murders. Attempts to destroy nations. And during these 2 years of full-scale war, almost as many states as since the beginning of our independence have now recognized the Holodomor as genocide. Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, the Czech Republic, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Brazil, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Iceland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia, The European Union and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Justice is spreading around the world. The world needs to know about it, the world needs to recognize it, the world needs to remember it.

I thank everyone who, together with Ukraine, restores historical truth and justice. Who calls a spade a spade. And who does not allow the names of those guilty of genocide and war crimes to hide behind the lie of alleged non-involvement. 90 years ago, the world could not fully see what was really happening. Now there are no those who do not see. There are only those who choose not to notice. They are few. And there will be even fewer. The truth paves the way. On this path, the world must unite and condemn the crimes of the past. The world must unite and stop the crimes of the present.

In the last century, famine came from Moscow. Now we hear words of denial from there. And every one of these words of denial actually sounds like a confession – they need famine as a weapon for the future. Famine, cold, terror. Every ton of grain they have stolen now, the blockade of each of our cities, every Russian strike against our ports, against Ukrainian grain storage facilities and elevators, every “Shahed” that targets our logistics, and every Russian missile whose trajectory is against Ukrainian life is all the past that has returned since it has not been condemned in time. This is a process where the line of totalitarian Soviet policy and the line of modern Russian policy form the equals sign together. Evil was not stopped. Was not atoned for. And now we are stopping it.

This is a time of historical responsibility for the murderers and for those who chose to be followers of the murderers, who act in the same way as before. And justice is important not in 90 years, but now. Because although there are crimes that have no statute of limitations, justice must be timely. The sentence for evil must be timely. Justice needs living witnesses. Those who will see the Russian evil punished. And those who will tell not only about what our people went through, but also about how our people put a just end to the attempts to destroy Ukraine, to torture, subjugate or exterminate it. Ukraine will prevail. Ukraine will not fade away. Ukraine will preserve itself and the truth. And justice. And the words of one of the most famous novels about the Holodomor, The Yellow Prince: “Their evil will perish, but the truth will never” will become the living witnesses and the living truth of Ukraine, which endured.

May we always remember all our people who died in 1921, 1922 and 1923. In 1946 and 1947. And in the most terrible years of 1932 and 1933, the years of the Holodomor genocide.

May the warmth from millions of candles of remembrance warm millions of their souls.

May they all rest in peace!

The University of Minnesota’s Holocaust and Genocide Studies program has an excellent and accessible history of the Holodomor: (emphasis mine)

In 1932 and 1933, millions of Ukrainians were killed in the Holodomor, a man-made famine engineered by the Soviet government of Joseph Stalin. The primary victims of the Holodomor (literally “death inflicted by starvation”) were rural farmers and villagers, who made up roughly 80 percent of Ukraine’s population in the 1930s. While it is impossible to determine the precise number of victims of the Ukrainian genocide, most estimates by scholars range from roughly 3.5 million to 7 million (with some estimates going higher). The most detailed demographic studies estimate the death toll at 3.9 million. Historians agree that, as with other genocides, the precise number will never be known.

By the end of the 1920s, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin consolidated his control over the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Feeling threatened by Ukraine’s strengthening cultural autonomy, Stalin took measures to destroy the Ukrainian peasantry and the Ukrainian intellectual and cultural elites to prevent them from seeking independence for Ukraine.

To prevent “Ukrainian national counterrevolution,” Stalin initiated mass-scale political repressions through widespread intimidation, arrests, and imprisonment. Thousands of Ukrainian intellectuals, church leaders, and Ukrainian Communist Party functionaries who had supported pro-Ukrainian policies were executed by the Soviet regime.

At the same time, Stalin decreed the First Five Year Plan, which included the collectivization of agriculture, effectively ending the NEP. Collectivization gave the Soviet state direct control over Ukraine’s rich agricultural resources and allowed the state to control the supply of grain for export. Grain exports would be used to fund the USSR’s transformation into an industrial power.

The majority of rural Ukrainians, who were independent small-scale or subsistence farmers, resisted collectivization. They were forced to surrender their land, livestock and farming tools, and work on government collective farms (kolhosps) as laborers. Historians have recorded about 4,000 local rebellions against collectivization, taxation, terror, and violence by Soviet authorities in the early 1930s. The Soviet secret police (GPU) and the Red Army ruthlessly suppressed these protests. Tens of thousands of farmers were arrested for participating in anti-Soviet activities, shot, or deported to labor camps.

The wealthy and successful farmers who opposed collectivization were labeled “kulaks” by Soviet propaganda (“kulak” literally means “a fist”). They were declared enemies of the state, to be eliminated as a class. The elimination of the so-called “kulaks” was an integral part of collectivization. It served three purposes: as a warning to those who opposed collectivization, as a means to transfer confiscated land to the collective farms, and as a means to eliminate village leadership. Thus, the secret police and the militia brutally stripped “kulaks” not only of their lands but also their homes and personal belongings, systematically deporting them to the far regions of the USSR or executing them.

These mass repressions, along with manipulation of state-controlled grain purchases and collectivization through the destruction of Ukrainian rural community life, set the stage for the total terror – a terror by hunger, the Holodomor.

The Holodomor

Ukraine, with its history of resistance to the Soviet rule, was a threat to the Soviet regime. Fearing that opposition to his policies in Ukraine could intensify and possibly lead to Ukraine’s secession from the Soviet Union, Stalin set unrealistically high grain procurement quotas. Those quotas were accompanied by other Draconian measures intended to wipe out a significant part of the Ukrainian nation.

In August of 1932, the decree of “Five Stalks of Grain,” stated that anyone, even a child, caught taking any produce from a collective field, could be shot or imprisoned for stealing “socialist property.” At the beginning of 1933, about 54,645 people were tried and sentenced; of those, 2,000 were executed.

As famine escalated, growing numbers of farmers left their villages in search of food outside of Ukraine. Directives sent by Stalin and Molotov (Stalin’s closest collaborator) in January of 1933 prevented them from leaving, effectively sealing the borders of Ukraine.

To further ensure that Ukrainian farmers did not leave their villages to seek food in the cities, the Soviet government started a system of internal passports, which were denied to farmers so they could not travel or obtain a train ticket without official permission. These same restrictions applied to the Kuban region of Russia, which borders Ukraine, and in which Ukrainians made up the largest portion of the Kuban population – 67 percent.

At the time of the Holodomor, over one-third of the villages in Ukraine were put on “blacklists” for failing to meet grain quotas. Blacklisted villages were encircled by troops and residents were blockaded from leaving or receiving any supplies; it was essentially a collective death sentence.

To ensure these new laws were strictly enforced, groups of “activists” organized by the Communist Party were dispatched to the countryside. As described by historian Clarence Manning:

“The work of these special ‘commissions’ and ‘brigades’ was marked by the utmost severity. They entered the villages and made the most thorough searches of the houses and barns of every peasant. They dug up the earth and broke into the walls of buildings and stoves in which the peasants tried to hide their last handfuls of food.”

To escape death by starvation, people in the villages ate anything that was edible: grass, acorns, even cats and dogs. Contemporary Soviet police archives contain descriptions of the immense suffering and despair of Ukrainian farmers, including instances of lawlessness, theft, lynching, and even cannibalism.

This Famine, the Holodomor, resulted in widespread deaths and mass graves dug across the countryside. The official registers did not give a full accounting of what was happening across Ukraine – deaths often remained unregistered, cause of death was missing – to conceal the true situation.

At the height of the Holodomor in June of 1933, Ukrainians were dying at a rate of 28,000 people per day. Around 3.9 million Ukrainians died during the Holodomor of 1932-33 (as established in a 2015 study by a team of demographers from the Ukrainian Institute of Demographic and Social Studies, and the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill).

While Ukrainians were dying, the Soviet state extracted 4.27 million tons of grain from Ukraine in 1932, enough to feed at least 12 million people for an entire year. Soviet records show that in January of 1933, there were enough grain reserves in the USSR to feed well over 10 million people. The government could have organized famine relief and could have accepted help from outside of the USSR. Moscow rejected foreign aid and denounced those who offered it, instead exporting Ukraine’s grain and other foodstuffs abroad for cash.

Most historians, who have studied this period in Ukrainian history, have concluded that the Famine was deliberate and linked to a broader Soviet policy to subjugate the Ukrainian people. With the fall of the Soviet Union and the opening of Soviet government archives (including archives of the security services), researchers have been able to demonstrate that Soviet authorities undertook measures specifically in Ukraine with the knowledge that the result would be the deaths of millions of Ukrainians by starvation.

“The Terror-Famine of 1932-33 was a dual-purpose by-product of collectivization, designed to suppress Ukrainian nationalism and the most important concentration of prosperous peasants at one throw.” –Norman Davies, Europe, A History.

From the Holodomor Education and Research Consortium: (emphasis mine)

The famine of 1932–33 in Ukraine, called the Holodomor (a word coined in the late 1980s, meaning a famine deliberately initiated to cause suffering and death) can be considered genocide according to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in light of Article 2 (c). This clause identifies as genocide deliberate actions that create conditions of life leading to the physical destruction in whole or in part of a national, ethnic, religious or racial group.

The famine in Ukraine began in late 1931 during the Soviet Union’s first Five-Year plan, which called for rapid industrialization and the forced collectivization of agriculture. During the collectivization drive that began in 1929, private farms were abolished, and in their place state-owned and collective farms were established. Ostensibly run by the collective farmers themselves, the collective farms were actually controlled and monitored by Soviet or Communist Party officials. At the same time, successful, well off-farmers, labelled kulaks (according to the Soviet regime, these were exploiters of poorer peasants), were persecuted, stripped of their possessions, arrested and deported. Many were sent to far-off lands, and some were even executed. In practice, any farmer opposed to collectivization, even if not well off, was often labelled a kulak or kulak supporter.

When famine broke out in Ukraine—triggered by confiscatory measures taken by Soviet officials to fulfill unrealistically high grain collection targets in the wake of the substantial drop in agricultural production—top Soviet Ukrainian government leaders informed the Kremlin of starvation, requesting aid and a reduction in the grain quota for the country. The Soviet leader, Joseph Stalin, called instead for an intensification of grain collection efforts. He also voiced his distrust of Ukrainian officials, suspecting many of them as nationalists, and expressed fear that opposition to his policies in Ukraine could intensify, possibly leading to Ukraine’s secession from the Soviet Union.

Stalin’s response was catastrophic for Ukraine. Under his urging, the Soviet leadership passed draconian laws and adopted punitive and repressive policies, ostensibly to help meet the grain quota. Special teams were sent to the countryside, headed by Stalin’s top lieutenants, to collect more grain, even though farmers had little stored for the winter and spring months ahead. Even seed grain was taken, and fines in meat and potatoes were instituted for those who had not fulfilled the grain collection plan. Other foodstuffs were also confiscated by search squads.

Unsurprisingly, the situation in the Ukrainian countryside became desperate by winter. But the regime did not relent from its policies of confiscation, punishment and repression. On January 22, 1933, in response to large numbers of hungry Ukrainian farmers leaving their villages in search of food, primarily to Russia, the Soviet leadership issued an order prohibiting their departure from the republic. Around the same time, Stalin began replacing some of Ukraine’s leaders and changed state policy that had supported the development and use of the Ukrainian language. A campaign of persecution and destruction of many Ukrainian intellectuals and officials who were accused of being Ukrainian nationalists also began.

The famine in Ukraine subsided in summer 1933 as that year’s harvest was gathered. By that time, resistance in the countryside had been broken. Demographers estimate that close to four million residents of Ukraine, mostly Ukrainian peasants, perished as a direct result of starvation.

Any discussion of the famine as genocide should begin with a review of the ideas of Raphael Lemkin, a legal scholar who was the “father” of the UN’s genocide convention. In a speech delivered in 1953, he called the USSR’s policies toward Ukraine under Stalin “the classic example of Soviet genocide.” He viewed the famine in Ukraine as a key component of what he called the “Ukrainian genocide,” which he understood as a series of actions that also included the destruction and subjugation of Ukraine’s intellectuals and political elite, the liquidation of the independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and the government-directed settlement of Ukraine’s farmlands by non-Ukrainians, which took place in the wake of the famine of 1932–33.

In assessing the charge of genocide, one should recognize that it carries legal and political implications, and thus could be controversial. Political figures and entities have sometimes made statements or offered opinions on specific cases where the question of genocide has been raised. This is true of the famine in Ukraine. In 1988, a special commission of the US Congress established to investigate the Ukrainian famine concluded that “Joseph Stalin and those around him committed genocide against Ukrainians in 1932–33.” In 2006, Ukraine’s legislature, the Verkhovna Rada, adopted a law that called the Holodomor genocide. Some countries, like Canada, have adopted resolutions or statements recognizing the Holodomor as genocide. However, Russia’s national legislature, the Duma, stressed in a declaration that famine in these years was a pan-Soviet tragedy and denied that the Ukrainian situation was specific.

Controversy can also occur because of a lack of consensus among scholars. There is general agreement among scholars that the Holodomor resulted from the actions of Soviet authorities and was thus man-made and avoidable. However, some scholars as well as political figures have argued that the charge of genocide in Ukraine cannot be substantiated because famine occurred at the same time in other republics of the Soviet Union, including Russia. It has also been argued that the famine was used as a weapon aimed against peasants as a social group, and not against Ukrainians as an ethnic group. Two scholars of the Soviet Union, Robert E. Davies and Stephen G. Wheatcroft, have argued that the Soviet leadership caused the famine partly through “wrongheaded policies,” but that it was “unexpected and undesirable.” The famine, they argue, was “a consequence of the decision to industrialise this peasant country [the Soviet Union] at breakneck speed.”

The Italian scholar Andrea Graziosi, in support of the genocide interpretation, has argued that in assessing the issue one must take into account the extremely high mortality rate in Ukraine—triple the mortality rate in Russia. This was caused by the additional measures taken by Soviet authorities that intensified the famine in Ukraine. Graziosi also stresses Stalin’s understanding of the peasant and national questions as closely linked in largely peasant-based countries like Ukraine. He thus concludes that the Ukrainian villages were “indeed targeted to break the peasants, but with the full awareness that the village represented the nation’s spine.”

There are other arguments to be made in favour of the genocide interpretation. Grain exports continued during the worst months of the famine, and Soviet government reserves contained enough grain to feed the starving. When aid was first authorized in February 1933, it was selective, and not nearly enough grain was released to save millions from starvation. The mobility of Ukraine’s peasants was blocked through the January 22, 1933 decree depriving them of possible access to food in other regions of the Soviet Union. It is also clear that Stalin in 1932 was worried about losing Ukraine, tied the shortfall in grain collections in Ukraine to perceived failures of the republic’s leadership, and referred to this to justify removing some of Ukraine’s leaders when he replaced them with loyal followers. He also saw resistance in the Ukrainian countryside to grain collection as motivated by both class antagonisms and nationalism. If one considers the anti-Ukrainian measures he promoted, including authorizing persecutions of Ukrainian intellectuals and of the more nationally oriented political leadership, the overall anti-national thrust of Stalin’s decisions in 1932–1933 becomes more evident. Finally, news of the famine was suppressed in the Soviet Union, offers of outside aid were refused, and until the late 1980s the Soviet government denied that a famine had even taken place.

Holodomor Memorial Day is a terrible reminder that russia for centuries have been turning food into weapon.

90 years ago, the Stalin's regime has committed an act of genocide against the Ukrainian people. Between 1932 and 1933, millions of our people died of a man-made famine.… pic.twitter.com/2HH0yENbCg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 25, 2023

Holodomor Memorial Day is a terrible reminder that russia for centuries have been turning food into weapon.

90 years ago, the Stalin’s regime has committed an act of genocide against the Ukrainian people. Between 1932 and 1933, millions of our people died of a man-made famine. The memory of those innocent victims lives on in our hearts.

Today, russia continues the Stalinist tradition. They are destroying our granaries, elevators, and ports and attacking ships with food in the Black Sea.

Thanks to the bravery of the Ukrainian Defence Forces, we are squeezing the russian fleet from the Black Sea. Thanks to the help of partners, our air defense units are covering the infrastructure where the grain corridor begins. We are doing everything so that the horrors of the Holodomors, which Ukrainians experienced, do not affect anyone on earth.

The cost:

A family story from the Holodomor in my home village in Donbas:
A woman next door quietly singing a lullaby and rocking a cradle with the skeleton of an infant in it.
She had lost her mind from starvation and was ignoring the fact that her baby died many months before.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 25, 2023

If a crime goes unpunished, it will be repeated. Once again, Russia is committing genocide#HolodomorRemembranceDay pic.twitter.com/LFdP8mIXhm

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 25, 2023

Kyiv:

Aftermath of Shahed strike on kindergarten in Kyiv. Russian army must be proud of their achievement pic.twitter.com/VFt9bweACB

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 25, 2023

Russians carried out the most massive kamikaze drone attack on Ukraine. 75 drones were launched. Most of them were aimed at Kyiv.
Also, as can be seen from the wreckage of Shahed-136 found in the Kyiv region, it was painted in a black color, most likely in order to reduce the… pic.twitter.com/YJ8dxfuEVm

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 25, 2023

Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Magyar’s Birds are still on the hunt!

Magyar’s bird recorded another destroyed T-90M tank of the Russian army. The clip is part of a longer footage, showing several destroyed Russian vehicles and even a large antenna near Krynky.

Source: https://t.co/O9svf9wIzV#Ukraine #Kherson #Krynky pic.twitter.com/EyTvsEtiM1

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 25, 2023

Avdiivka:

The Russian losses at the Avdiivka sector continue to be so extraordinarily high that even Russian war correspondents such as Romanov are not mincing words.

This particular Russian column has been torn apart and on the ground I see patterns which tell that a cluster munitions… pic.twitter.com/mugZ7TJ7wO

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 25, 2023

The Russian losses at the Avdiivka sector continue to be so extraordinarily high that even Russian war correspondents such as Romanov are not mincing words.

This particular Russian column has been torn apart and on the ground I see patterns which tell that a cluster munitions attack was also involved.

Source: Telegram / Romanov

#Ukraine #Avdiivka #Donetsk

The Ukrainian grain corridor in the Black Sea:

Ukraine agreed with its partners to receive warships to ensure the safety of vessels in the "grain corridor" in the Black Sea.

Zelensky's direct speech: "We agreed with our partners and will accompany the ships at sea to guarantee their safety.
We already have specific… pic.twitter.com/E1usQQ7FeG

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 25, 2023

From the President of Ukraine’s website:

Ukraine expects additional air defense systems from its partners to protect the grain corridor, Odesa region – President

25 November 2023 – 19:26

Ukraine expects additional air defense systems to protect the grain corridor in the Black Sea and Odesa region, and relevant agreements with partner countries are already in place and being implemented. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made this statement during a meeting with media representatives following the second international summit “Grain from Ukraine” in Kyiv.

“We still need a very specific number of systems with a very specific name. The request has been made. We have a positive response when these systems start to protect that region. Because both the corridor and the people there are important. Our people in Odesa region are important to us. Air defense is in short supply, but… What’s important is that we have agreements, we have a positive signal, and the corridor is operational,” the Head of State said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that despite all the challenges, the grain corridor continues to function, and Russia currently does not exert strong influence on its operations.

“We have a clear corridor and cooperation for its use with Bulgaria, Romania, and Türkiye. We have agreements with the United Kingdom, involved in insuring this corridor. Corresponding results should be. I have an agreement with several states regarding the robust escort by Ukrainians, a convoy. We are already receiving appropriate naval boats for this purpose,” the President said.

Additionally, the Head of State said that the volumes of Ukrainian product transportation by rail through Moldova and Romania are inc

Tatarigami takes apart The NY Times‘ reporting that there have been more women and children have been reported killed in Gaza in the past fifty days or so than in the past twenty-one months in Ukraine. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

I'm disappointed by the misleading article from NYT with a sensationalist headline, inaccurately claiming "In less than two months, more than twice as many women and children have been reported killed in Gaza than in Ukraine after two years of war." Here's why it's inaccurate🧵: pic.twitter.com/SL1BegBEVC

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 25, 2023

2/ The article asserts that “More than twice as many women and children have already been reported killed in Gaza than in Ukraine after almost two years of Russian attacks, according to United Nations estimates. To verify this claim, I checked UN-provided numbers

3/ Firstly, the given number is not verified; it’s a claim from the Gaza Health Ministry, provided to the UN. This is markedly different from UN-verified deaths in Ukraine, as one is a claim from an involved party, while the other represents independently verified casualties.

4/ In addition to the UN, independent 3rd parties tried to civilian losses in Ukraine, particularly in Mariupol. The AP discovered more than 10,000 new graves in Mariupol alone, suggesting a death toll potentially three times higher than the initial estimate of at least 25,000.

5/ When assessing unverified numbers from officials (consistency in data sources), it’s important to compare them with Ukrainian statements. In a February 2023 statement, the Ukrainian war crimes prosecutor estimated that over 100,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed. 

6/ Moreover, in an August 2022 article, NYT stated, “And in Mariupol …. Ukrainian officials believe that at least 22,000 people were killed. They cite witness accounts, satellite imagery of mass graves, and footage showing bodies in the streets.”

7/ This is not a competition over civilian losses. An inaccurate methodological approach leads to false conclusions, whether deliberate or not, and undermines what’s left of the credibility of news sources like NYT. 

Adding links to source materials:https://t.co/R0DWZ8eaZJhttps://t.co/4Rb7fcSks0https://t.co/D8RQ0i5a5Thttps://t.co/xh7jvBFD4O

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 25, 2023

Before I switch to a brief update on the Israel-Hamas truce, there are two questions from last night’s comments I want to deal with.

First up, NotoriousJRT:

This is a sincere question. What does it mean to be / go “on a war footing?”

The first thing would be actually accepting that we are in a world war. That Putin began it, sometime after his 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference when he declared war on the US, EU, NATO, and “the West.” That this war is primarily not being fought with military power, but with other means. Specifically the other elements of national power. However, the major kinetic theaters of operation are Ukraine, Syria, and the Sahel. That the US and its allies and partners have been attacked and are still being attacked. That as a result of this war the global system has already been changed and will continued to be altered. That if we do not recognize what is going on and defend ourselves and our allies, then we will continue to lose this war and have no hand in shaping the global order that emerges from this war. A simple, compelling, direct and accurate strategic narrative needs to be created and then repeated at every opportunity. The US defense industrial base also needs to be put on a war footing. We need – and I hate this term – moonshot program for dealing with disinformation, misinformation, and agitprop and that needs to include dealing with deepfakes and the emerging large language models being mislabeled as AI. Finally, NATO Article 5 needs to be invoked.

Second, Traveller:

Why do Russian Soldiers keep marching into such misery?

There are four different dynamics at play here. The first is that, and I did an entire portion of an update about this, the Russians have been indoctrinated from a young age into the cult of Russian militarism rooted in an ahistorical and mythologized history of World War II. The second is they’ve been propagandized to believe that part or all of Ukraine is actually Russia. So they actually think they’re fighting to preserve the Russian world/Ruskiy Mir.

Cemetery in Kostroma for the Russian 331st Regiment which took catastrophic losses when Putin recklessly threw it into a meatgrinder in the hope of taking Kyiv "before lunch".

The same people who could be building a prosperous Russia will be remembered in history as invaders.… pic.twitter.com/NYtclu96YX

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 24, 2023

Cemetery in Kostroma for the Russian 331st Regiment which took catastrophic losses when Putin recklessly threw it into a meatgrinder in the hope of taking Kyiv “before lunch”.

The same people who could be building a prosperous Russia will be remembered in history as invaders. Putin decided this.

Yet the individual filming is still convinced that someone attacked his family and religion in Kostroma.

Third, a very large number of Russian military personnel are not actually ethnically Russians, they’re ethnic minorities. Mostly semi-Russified ethnic mongols from places like Buryatia and Tyvan. These Russian soldiers, sailors, and marines come from long traditions of military service combined with an overpowering economic dynamic: there are no jobs in the ethnic republics on the southern border of Russia. So serving in the Russian military is a means to earn the money to support oneself and one’s family while also honoring your family’s martial tradition.

Fourth, the convict soldiers. The calculus here seems to be better to take one’s chances on the battlefield than to rot in a Russian prison. Because if you survive you get a pardon, a bonus, a stipend, etc.

Just a brief update on the Israel-Hamas truce. There was a bit of a kerfuffle today. Hamas decided to flex its muscles and announced today’s transfer was off because Israel was not sending enough humanitarian relief supply trucks to northern Gaza and because the Palestinian prisoners were being released in the wrong order. Israel gave them a deadline to release the hostages or the the truce was over. The Biden administration and the Qataris got involved and managed to resolve the kerfuffle. While delayed, the hostages and prisoners were swapped and, for now, the truce still holds.

Sinwar appears to be enjoying his current power over Israel and the US.

💥In case you wonder what it means that Hamas is calling the shots: The delay in releasing the hostages was announced after Israeli families were dispatched to local hospitals to await their loved ones. https://t.co/Bc3S1gSNeq

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) November 25, 2023

The Israelis, however, are accusing Hamas of violating the truce because they released a twelve year old girl but not her mother. President Biden also seems to be a bit miffed that Hamas has still note released any of the American-Israeli dual nationals.

Nadav Eyal of Yediot Ahronot reported via tweet thread on Israeli military thinking regarding the truce and what comes next. It’s grim reading. The BLUF is that Israel expects to get 70 to 80 hostages back at most. If that happens, there will be a three to four day extension of the truce. Once that’s over, Israel is going to go in hard and with overwhelming force. Reading between the lines, my professional takeaway is they want the women and children out because they don’t expect the rest of the hostages (the men) will make it.

Here’s the translation into English from the Thread Reader App:

1/From a column in latest news in the Shabbat supplement.
The kidnapping deal washes the country in a sea of ​​tears and post-trauma. The slow release, bit by bit, with names being transferred to the families the night before, will be shocking and heartbreaking. He reminds us all that October 7 is not over. It continues, as long as the war takes place – and as long as the abductees are imprisoned in the tunnels, in the “underground”. Contrary to what is implied by the media discourse in recent days, the hope of many in the defense establishment and the government is that the deal will continue. even drag. that after the agreed 4 days of truce, Hamas will agree to release more hostages, and will ask for more days. In fact, this is the assessment presented to the government: that Hamas, at the moment, can and wants to release more than 50. The number ministers quoted to me is 70-80; “And we hope more”.
The explanation for this is painful. After the ceasefire, whether it lasts for a few days and ends with the return of about 50 abductees, or lasts for 10 days (which is the estimate in the War Cabinet) and releases much more, the IDF will move to the next phase of the war. He will be difficult, operationally. Complex, unusual, fiery moves are expected. The security system will have to prepare for them. The truce has advantages in this respect – advantages that were presented to the cabinet and cannot be detailed. What can be said is that the IDF has accurate estimates – how many tanks will be damaged. What are the attribution scenarios for attrition in SAD – that is, for soldiers who, God forbid, will be killed or injured. So far, the operation in the Gaza Strip is beating the grim calculations; The number of casualties, and the damage to the equipment, are in the lowest part of the estimates prepared by the IDF’s arms that deal with planning and force building. This indicates exceptional planning and fighting abilities, and sacrifice. But there is no guarantee that it will continue like this, and the battles are expected to be challenging.

2/ “Therefore, as many as we manage to get out of our abductees now, we will be able to operate more easily from an operational point of view,”, commented one senior official, “and the truth must be told: there are no guarantees that we will be able to return everyone who is not released now. After all, this is a war whose ultimate purpose is the destruction of the Hamas army and the elimination of Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad Daf. So we are willing to give it time, try to immediately release everyone possible. Because the next step is about to happen. No matter what”.

No one is willing to guarantee when the next release deal will come, but it is worth mentioning things that I have written in these pages before: the War Cabinet does not rule out, and will not rule out in the future, the possibility of the top Hamas going into exile (provided that its rule is eliminated in the Gaza Strip), in exchange for the return of hostages.

The clearest and most justified fear is losing momentum. From the photos and videos that will come out of the devastated north of the Gaza Strip. There is a gap between the world and Israel. In the diplomatic community, also in the West, the truce is seen as a first step towards the day after. In Jerusalem – more correctly, in the pit in Kirya – they say that such a day is beyond the mountains of darkness of Hamas. American Secretary of State Lincoln will be here this week. He will hear an unequivocal, unbroken, coordinated war cabinet: the war continues. The Pentagon and Linken are trying to figure out: how will Hamas be defeated in the southern Gaza Strip, when it is actually in a humanitarian crisis, with many hundreds of thousands who have lost their homes, in extraordinary density, and the IDF is supposed to – somehow – cleanse the area of ​​terrorists.
There are answers to these good questions, but it is not certain that they will convince the Americans. 

3/At the same time, President Biden – the closest to Israel and its redemption – is taking hits in the polls. Official, governmental Israel has abandoned any pretense of winning the international narrative competition. The emphasis on the horrors of October 7, Israeli representatives report, is not of interest to the media in the various countries as it was in the past. With the resumption of fighting, Israel will go through a phase: the sympathy it received among Western leaders will erode, for some significantly (Emmanuel Macron) and for others less so (Rishi Sunak in Britain). Until now, almost an idyll has prevailed in Israel-US relations during the war, mainly because of the circumstances of the murderous attack on Israel. Doubt it will last. In the First Lebanon War, the tensions between the US and Menachem Begin’s government reached such a point that President Reagan sent a letter to the Prime Minister in which he threatened that the continued Israeli invasion of Lebanon would “exacerbate the most serious risk to world peace, and to the tensions that already exist in Israel-US relations”; At the end of the first month of the war, when Begin arrived in the US to meet with the president, the White House canceled the meeting (and then retracted it).
**
A large part of the American frustration is Netanyahu’s refusal to engage in a real and deep way in the day after the Gaza Strip – and also to give a description of such a vision to the world. They are looking for an answer to the following test question: “We will eliminate Hamas in Gaza and then….. (complete the sentence)”. Within the Israeli system there are sources who say that the prime minister not only refuses to engage in this – he actively thwarts discussions on the subject. “We don’t have a political arm,” says a senior Israeli, “and that’s stupidity.” If we talk about a vision for a Gaza free from Hamas, we will explain that it needs to be rebuilt, we will explain that we will not stay there, it will divert the fire from the war, from the civilian casualties. It gives perspective. And it also leaves a vacuum to be filled by other players”.
This process has already begun. The Saudis, for example, are quietly dealing with the question of what should be their place in the new Gaza. In Riyadh, they are talking about the possibility of bringing back Salem Fayyad, the Palestinian prime minister who was removed because of a dangerous tendency towards integrity and intolerance of bribery. Another example of filling the vacuum: an interesting meeting took place this week in Doha, Qatar. On the one hand, senior Hamas officials Khaled Mashal and Ismail Haniyeh. On the other side: members of Muhammad Dahlan’s party, the same Dahlan they threw out of the Gaza Strip in the putsch against Fatah in 2007. Dahlan himself was not present, which is strange; The rank of Hamas members was extremely senior. Did Hamas want to warn Dahlan that he would not agree to be the new ruler in Gaza, after the overthrow of their regime there? Or alternatively, do they want to reach an agreement with Dahlan on such a possibility, which would allow them to continue managing the strip when there is a “front” Seemingly legitimate? (Dahlan is considered corrupt and ineffective; what’s more, he is connected to Marwan Barghouti, a center of power on Palestinian Street and the main hope of Fatah).
President Biden talks about “Revitalized Palestinian Authority” that you rule the Gaza Strip. What does that actually mean? After a reform that will not allow the transfer of wages to convicted prisoners? Deleting the incitement? fight against corruption? Replacing Abu Mazen? At the moment, Israel is not ready to officially conduct this dialogue. And you can understand why: the day Netanyahu – who still doesn’t understand that his career is over – engages in this, his government will fall apart. The extreme right will happily agree to replace him with another Likud man, who will swear, simply, that there will not be any independent Palestinian government in Gaza – and certainly not the Rash.
** 

4. Pay attention – the situation in Judea and Samaria.
It’s not every day that a demonstration is organized near the house of an IDF general during a war. This happened this week, in Moshav Horeshim, not far from the house of the Central Command Major, Yehuda Fox. We are not talking about Palestinians or Israeli Arabs of course; If they had thought of such an act, it is likely that the police would have made arrests quickly. It was Daniela Weiss, and with her dozens of women and children from the settlements, mainly from Samaria. They came to protest, following shooting attacks, for what they called “allowing the free movement of Arabs on Judea and Samaria roads in a way that endangers the lives of the residents”. And in the words of Weiss into a blue-gray megaphone: “The Arabs are not allowed to leave their homes. They will stay at home and we will move freely. “He who shows mercy to the cruel, ends up being cruel to the merciful.” Another protester accused the General of the Central Command of “endangering the lives of our children, and he does nothing”.
“Nothing”. unbelievable. The IDF is at war, also in Judea and Samaria. Almost 2000 arrested, over 200 dead Palestinians, airstrikes, including from warplanes – inside the West Bank. Since “protective wall” There was no such thing. The facts will not convince the delusional; Major Fox has long been the object of an inciting and ugly campaign; Unfortunately it doesn’t just come from hillbillies. Security was recently attached to it. The IDF denies that the fear is of an attack by the extreme right. They say there that this is a protocol that was implemented because of the fear of Palestinian terrorist organizations.
Daniela Weiss’s big moment in the war was in the “New Yorker” magazine. the prestigious; Someone was looking there with candles for a figure that would harm, in fact, her statements, Israel during the war. Weiss was found suitable and delivered the goods: she announced that the Land of Israel is actually from the Euphrates River to the Nile. The reporter opened brackets and explained that this is an area that is under the sovereignty of “many Arab countries”, far beyond the State of Israel and the territories. Weiss got 15 minutes of attention. Haters of Israel were given an interview by Pantheon, and shared it enthusiastically on Instagram and Twitter – proof, they said, of what Israel really is.
The situation in the territories is very explosive. Three miscalculations calculated by Yahya Sinwar. The former did not correctly assess Israel’s response to the massacres by Hamas, and its determination to use extraordinary force to destroy the army it built. The second calculation was that Israeli society is divided and fragmented, and its cracks will grow following the Hamas attack. The third calculation, and the most important of all, was that Hamas would start a war, and many would join. The West Bank will burn. Hezbollah will join in full force, and maybe Iran too. The peace accords will collapse.
The most essential part for Hamas, the closest, is the West Bank. War expansion in the north is a matter that the Americans are trying to limit. The peace agreements seem stable in the short term. A significant weak point for Israel is the possibility that a third intifada and actual fighting will develop between Hebron and Ninen. And there, the writing is on the wall.
The situation on the ground shows escalation. There is an increase in terrorist attacks by the Palestinian terrorist organizations, which are determined to bring to an end the atrocities committed in the Gaza Strip. The IDF is working aggressively to suppress the possibility of an organized Hamas uprising, and there is a fear of a popular uprising against the Palestinian Authority. The IDF is actively preparing for the possibility that the Israel Defense Forces’ security forces will turn against Israel. At the same time, Jewish nationalist crime is on the rise. The American administration is extremely anxious about the possibility of the fall of Abu Mazen, and the activity of Jewish extremists. From Washington, the same Washington that fiercely defends Israel 24/7, almost daily messages come out protesting “settler violence” on the bank President Biden and Secretary of State Lincoln made it clear that the Palestinian Authority will be the future address for the government in Gaza. For this to happen, according to them, it must change. But above all – to survive.
These are not exactly the plans of the settlers, who see the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh as a potentially deadly event like Hamas. The leaders of the settlement are working to establish facts on the ground, on a historical scale. As reported here a few weeks ago, throughout Judea and Samaria, planning and construction rules of various kinds are now regularly being broken. New roads and roads are being paved, including on private lands, without permission. The supervision unit of the Civil Administration functions with a missing composition; Her friends are in the reserves. Yossi Dagan, head of the Samaria Council, is working to stop and thwart any olive harvesters near the settlements; He speaks of Muskim as “Hamasnik terrorists”. There are many more weapons circulating in the field; It is a security necessity, but it is used to threaten Palestinians in the harvest. The security establishment says that “since the beginning of the war, there are settlers – those who give the settlement a bad name – who are taking advantage of the war to break the law, for clearly illegal actions”.
Take an example. Last week, 3 new buildings were placed in Chomash, one of them, a wooden structure, on private Palestinian land. The civil administration took care of that. A few days ago, the same officials tried to move 3 more caravans to the Yeshiva in Chomesh, again without permission. Security forces were deployed there to thwart this event. 

5. “Instead of the IDF being focused on their constant attempt to prevent terrorist attacks,” officials on the ground say, “they are sent to deal with violations of the law by Israelis. These events damage Israel’s legitimacy in the war, and they put sticks in the wheels of the security system whose role is to protect the settlers and uphold the law. These are harsh words; You can understand why. An outbreak in the West Bank will force the IDF, which is fully retired, to significantly increase the order of its forces in Judea and Samaria. It will be difficult to wage a war on three fronts.
The situation in the Palestinian Authority is already difficult, even before the clashes between the harvesters and settlers, the blocking of roads, the expansion of outposts. Internal assessments given to senior officials in Israel provide a detailed breakdown: in the West Bank business community they estimate that the situation is on the verge of an explosion, among other things in light of the difficult economic situation and dysfunction of the banking system. The Palestinians who talk to Israeli officials report a severe pessimism, an acute fear of settler actions, a growing awareness of the illegal settlement incursions. The main concern is that Palestinian work in Israel will not resume for a long time, and a major source of income for Palestinian society will evaporate. It is estimated that unemployment in the West Bank jumped by tens of percent in the last month; It is a catalyst for violence. The Authority loaned money for development projects in Gaza; That’s about a billion dollars lost. The large companies in the West Bank sent about half of the workers on forced vacations. The consensus among prominent Palestinians is that the Israel Defense Forces functions in only one sense: as a (partial) security contractor for Israel. The Palestinians who talk to Israel, and want cooperation with it, predicted that the Haggadah is on the verge of an explosion – against the PA, or against the IDF, or against both. For the attention of the Cabinet and Reh: None of you will be able to claim that such a warning was not given. 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

SES (State Emergency Service) it’s almost like SOS. We try to handle all the SOS signals from our country. Proud to be one small part of this colossal work❤️ @SESU_UA pic.twitter.com/qi0vVlfrHq

— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 24, 2023

Open thread!

A portion of today’s Staff meeting was devoted to a complex of issues for which our soldiers and society expect fair answers – address by the President of Ukraine

24 November 2023 – 19:09

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Just concluded negotiations with the President of Latvia. It was a substantive conversation. We talked about the defensive support for our state, for our soldiers. About the sustainability of such support. In particular, we discussed the production and supply of ammunition – 155mm artillery – as well as the issue of medevac – special armored vehicles for evacuating our wounded soldiers. I am grateful to Latvia for its unwavering support for our European prospects – all the work towards the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. Today, I informed Mr. President about our country’s implementation of the European Commission’s recommendations and our readiness for a political decision in December, as promised by the European side, opening the negotiation process. We expect this decision and the fulfillment of the European Union’s promise. We discussed in detail with Mr. President mechanics of preparing the relevant EU decision.

I also spoke today with Mark Rutte, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Thanked him for the support provided to Ukraine, for the recent decision on an additional EUR 2 billion for the next year. This is an important signal for other partners. Protecting our European way of life must continue, and unity in Europe is a key element for this. Mark and I also discussed our joint work on the Peace Formula, as well as important humanitarian initiatives like our Grain from Ukraine program. We are working together to preserve stability in critical regions of the world and thus protect our continent from waves of crises.

Today, I chaired an important and challenging meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff. Concerning not only the current situation on the front, although that was, as always, one of the main points. Our defensive, our offensive actions. Avdiivka, Donetsk direction, Maryinka, Kupiansk direction, southern directions. A significant part of today’s meeting was dedicated to a complex of issues for which our soldiers and the entire society expect fair answers. This includes mobilization and demobilization, rotations in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Issues regarding conscripts who were called to service before the start of the full-scale invasion. Of course, special attention was given to the situation with the work of the medical military commissions and military enlistment offices. What soldiers talk about, what commanders discuss must be resolved. Today, there were initial reports on this from Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, Minister of Defense Umerov, Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko, Minister of Health Liashko, and Chief of the General Staff Shaptala. I expect a more thorough analysis of each of these issues by both the government and the military and concrete proposals for state decisions.

I thank everyone who cares about Ukraine and Ukrainians! I thank each and every one who fights for the country and works for Ukrainian interests!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Canadian combat medic Joshua Mayers confirmed killed in action in Ukraine.

True hero, will never be forgotten, rest in peace!

We will keep fighting and avenge you brother, will see you in Valhalla🇨🇦🇨🇦🇺🇦

📸credits: @northernprovisions (IG) pic.twitter.com/LVKt7TgwnH

— Black Maple Company (@BlackMapleCo) November 24, 2023

Ottowa:

Today, 🇨🇦 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau @JustinTrudeau announced that Canada was donating over 11,000 assault rifles and over 9 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine.
We are grateful to our Canadian friends for their staunch support!
Together, we will win!
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023

Copenhagen:

🇩🇰🇺🇦 Denmark will increase its military support for Ukraine by $336 million this year, the @Forsvarsmin reports.

We are grateful to our Danish partners for supporting Ukraine in the struggle for freedom.

Together, we are stronger!

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023

Ukraine via Vilnius:

/2. Two launchers of the NASAMS air defense system provided by Lithuania in November as part of the next package of defense assistance to Ukraine have already been put on combat duty.https://t.co/LgVcgNUwSW

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 24, 2023

Berlin:

Germany will deploy an additional Patriot air defense system in Ukraine this winter. This was stated by the German ambassador to Ukraine, in an interview with "Ukrinform"https://t.co/sTSRN37MEE pic.twitter.com/z2hTntuur9

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 24, 2023

While it is a good thing that Germany, Lithuania, Denmark, and Canada are increasing their support, we are fast approaching a crisis. Politico reports on the the resistance Trudeau is facing in Canada: (emphasis mine)

Justin Trudeau is blaming the MAGA movement and Republican ideology for eroding support for Ukraine.

The Canadian prime minister used a press conference with visiting European leaders to connect a gambit by his Conservative rivals in Ottawa to hard-right rhetoric in the United States and Europe, which he said is “starting to parrot Russian disinformation and misinformation and propaganda.”

Canada is home to 1.4 million Ukrainian Canadians and boasts the second-largest Ukrainian diaspora after Russia. Until now, politicians of all stripes have been united behind Ukraine.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his party turned heads in Parliament earlier this week when they voted as a bloc against legislation that would update the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement. The bill passed anyway with the aid of Bloc Québécois and NDP MPs for study at the committee level.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed the new deal when he met with Trudeau in Ottawa this fall. Ukraine asked Canada to fast-track the modernized legislation to help lure investments to rebuild the war-torn country.

In a surprise move, Conservatives voted against legislation that would enact those changes. The party claimed that the new trade deal with Ukraine would impose Canada’s controversial carbon tax which Poilievre has vowed to kill.

No such wording actually exists in the document. In fact, the Eastern European country has had its own carbon mechanism since 2011.

Ukrainian officials were taken aback by the sudden politicization of a trade deal first championed by former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Trudeau called the Conservatives opposition to the deal “frankly absurd.”

During Friday’s press briefing he called out what he described as a bigger trend behind the Conservatives’ twist — using the moment to tie his political foes to Trumpian influences.

“The real story is the rise of a right-wing American, MAGA influence thinking that has made Canadian Conservatives, who used to be among the strongest defenders of Ukraine … turn their backs on something Ukraine needs in its hour of need,” Trudeau told reporters in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador.

Support for Ukraine has evolved into a crisis in Washington, with calls from congressional members to pump the brakes on U.S. aid to the country. The position, most evident among a hardline group of Republicans, reflects former President Donald Trump’s “America First” ethos on foreign policy and hostility to foreign aid.

Politico also has the details of how things are getting worse for Ukraine in DC: (emphasis mine)

Ukraine’s strongest supporters in Washington are looking at the three-week sprint after Thanksgiving as their best remaining hope of getting aid to the country.

But as Democrats continue to publicly express hope for the Biden administration’s nearly $106 billion funding request for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, they also remain vexed about how to move a bill through the Republican-run House.

The dynamics of the GOP House have alarmed the West Wing. Speaker Mike Johnson has indicated that he’ll at some point bring a vote on Ukraine, but those in the White House do not yet have a clear read on the new Republican leader or his negotiating style, according to two senior aides not authorized to speak publicly about private deliberations.

Few in Biden’s orbit have ever met Johnson, a religious conservative who was largely unknown until his stunning ascent to the speakership. And while the West Wing didn’t appreciate former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s grandstanding, they did feel like he eventually wanted to deal — and they are less sure about Johnson, according to the officials. Moreover, the same fringe group of Republicans who ousted McCarthy wield that same power over Johnson — and they are largely opposed to helping Ukraine, making a path to deal that much more difficult.

“People are well aware that if a vote were put up in the House of Representatives today, it would pass with an overwhelming majority of members — that the issue is not the level of support as it is getting to that vote,” said Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.). “Because of the political conditions and the change in leadership, getting the vote has been the hard part.”

On two occasions already, Democrats tried but failed to get aid to Ukraine in a must-pass funding bill. With another deadline to spark action not coming until the latest stopgap funding bills expire in late January and early February, many of Congress’ strongest Ukraine backers fear the country can’t wait that long.

“I don’t know that Ukraine can survive until February of 2024,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said. “My sense is they start to run short on ammunition in the next several weeks.”

Believing there is an immediate need, Ukraine advocates are gearing up for a standalone Senate vote on funding when they return from break. Should that vote happen, it would provide a massive test both for the administration’s ability to work Capitol Hill and one of the bedrock elements of the president’s foreign policy agenda.

But the main obstacle still remains: what to do about Republican opposition.

Since passage of the last Ukraine supplemental, Kyiv’s counteroffensive has stalled and conservative support in Washington has crumbled with the GOP’s leader, Donald Trump, opposing it. The outbreak of war in the Middle East has led to the addition of aid to Israel — and growing demands by progressive Democrats for a cease-fire and conditions on aid to Israel.

While support for Israel has strong support in both chambers, senators and administration officials insist that Israel and Ukraine funding remain together.

The thornier challenge is meeting the Republican demand that the package address border policy. The administration’s request includes funding for border security, but the GOP insists it include policy changes to stem the number of people crossing the border, too.

Democratic Ukraine supporters have embraced the idea that they must include border policy reforms. And while they don’t like marrying the two unrelated issues, they do see an upside if they’re able to address the political thorny issue of the border.

“This is really important funding. I think it’s important for the civilized world to take a stand against dictators like Vladimir Putin and terrorist groups like Hamas,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said. “And I also think we have a failed policy at the southern border, and we need to look at ways to fix it.”

“President Biden and the leaders in the Senate, both Republican and Democrat, are rock solid in their support of Ukraine,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who is close with Biden, said Tuesday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

“We have to bear down, get this done and get this supplemental passed soon because the brave Ukrainians who are fighting as winter is coming are looking at losing the supplies they’ve needed for ammunition, for missiles, for drones, for defense, for armor, and we cannot possibly afford to abandon Ukraine,” he added. “If our Republican colleagues demand too much in this negotiation, we won’t be able to get it passed in the Senate and then in the House.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said border policy must be included in the deal in order to get Ukraine funding through Congress. Inside the White House, McConnell has emerged as an unlikely hero for his steadfast support of Ukraine, which has helped, to a large degree, keep his party in line. But the West Wing has growing fears that the Kentucky senator’s grip on his party has slipped, according to the two senior aides granted anonymity to speak about private discussions.

More at both links.

🇺🇦Ukraine’s Air Force: Russia may have stoсked up nearly up to 900 missiles for future strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 24, 2023

The winter campaign has begun in Ukraine. Russia will soon ramp back up its targeting of civilian power generation and transmission infrastructure just as it did last winter. Ukrainian stocks of ammunition and other material will continue to be drawn down. The Biden administration, because the GOP controls the House and a third to a half of that caucus opposes further aid to Ukraine. There’s also about a third of GOP senators with the same position. We are now twenty-one months into this war. The US defense industrial base is still not on a war footing. Nor do we have a permanent mechanism to ensure Ukraine is supplied. Instead we’ve continually dribbled out just enough support to ensure that Ukraine may not loose, Russia may not win, but not to ensure that Ukraine can win. Please spare me the comments about how long it takes to ramp up production. I know how the defense enterprise works, I’ve been through the course at the senior leader college. I agree, it does take time for the defense industrial base to ramp up production, especially when it isn’t incentivized, when it isn’t put on a war footing. It’s a convenient excuse to allow those making it to sleep comfortable at night that everything that can be reasonably done is being done. We are in the middle of a world war! The single largest kinetic theater of that war is Ukraine. The rest of it is either being contested using low intensity warfare through the application of military power or through the elements of national power other than military power. It is time to rise to the occasion, put the defense industrial base on a war footing, publicly recognize and admit the actual national security challenges we’re facing, and do what has to be done. Or we can keep fiddling while Ukrainians die on our and Europe’s behalf.

Putin & Russia don't give a shit about NATO as something of a military threat.

They don't care about it — at all, at all, at all.

And they never did.

Just like now that Finland is part of NATO and Sweden is coming soon, the Kremlin couldn't care less.

Because, unlike…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 24, 2023

Putin & Russia don’t give a shit about NATO as something of a military threat.

They don’t care about it — at all, at all, at all.

And they never did.

Just like now that Finland is part of NATO and Sweden is coming soon, the Kremlin couldn’t care less.

Because, unlike independent thinkers on X, they are evil but not stupid, and they always knew the West is most obviously of no threat to Russia.

They always knew NATO & the West were way too heterogeneous, relaxed, comfortable, disarmed, unprepared, and too busy minding their own business in a world where a war of conquest is a stupid idea that just doesn’t work — especially when it comes to messing with the world’s top nuclear power.

The only way Russia cares about Ukraine’s “NATO membership” is that it effectively removes Ukraine from a list of countries against which the Kremlin can unleash yet another Great Patriotic Special Military Operation, thus prolonging and justifying its never-ending rule over Russia — you know, the fortress all surrounded by enemies since the dawn of time.

So next time they talk about Ukrainian “neutrality” — let me give you a simple translation: “We need Ukraine out of NATO so that we can conquer it and triumphally bring its severed head on a plate to the Russian public — until the euphoria dies down again and we have to decide who’s next.”

Avdiivka:

An episode from the Battle of Avdiivka
by Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized.
No words.
I’m speechless, to be honest. pic.twitter.com/3ucafBysPs

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 24, 2023

Here’s a more detailed assessment from Tatarigami. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Despite dense cloud cover blocking satellite, drone, and optical surveillance of the Avdiivka battlefield, our team continued the analysis using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) systems. Here is what we learned about the current situation. 🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/K4cTkWWpme

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 24, 2023

2/ Before we move further, let’s clarify what Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is. It’s a technology that employs radar to generate images of the Earth’s surface. By capturing and processing reflected waves, SAR provides detailed imagery regardless of weather conditions or daylight

3/
We combined SAR data with on-the-ground testimonials and open-source video materials to gain comprehensive insights.

Some Key Observations

– Vehicle Reduction: In contrast to the initial month of assaults, russian forces are employing fewer vehicles in smaller numbers.

4/
– Tactical Shift: There’s a notable increase in the use of small tactical groups, consistently moving in the same areas despite prior losses.

– Guided Aerial bombs: There is a consistent uptick in the use of guided aerial bombs by Russian forces.

5/
As we correctly predicted, worsened weather conditions have hindered russian overextended logistics routes. Consequently, this limitation made it difficult to develop initial successes, particularly in the northern sector of Avdiivka, notably around Berdychi.

6/
Following an initial success north of Avdiivka, Russian forces extended their assaults for over a month. Despite tactical successes, they failed to establish persistent footholds in the AKHZ plant.

7/
Recently, russians seized control of parts of the industrial zone south of Avdiivka. These gains were primarily attributed to continuous infantry assaults, posing potential challenges for Ukrainian defenders in the coming weeks 

8/
Russian forces persist in deploying small tactical groups, despite a high mortality rate. This sustained tactic, where one group follows another, has the potential to exhaust Ukrainian troops and compromise their positions over time 

9/
The deployment of cluster bombs, as well as 250-1500kg bombs equipped with the UMPK kit poses a significant problem. Despite them being inaccurate, they are still dangerous due to the big explosive charge, particularly problematic in urban areas, leading to severe destruction

10/
In simpler terms, facing substantial losses and challenging weather, russians ramped up offensives using readily available resources—infantry, artillery, and aerial bombs.

11/
They shifted their focus to AKHZ, Berychi, and the southern industrial zone, reducing the emphasis on the initial plan to encircle Avdiivka with mechanized forces—a development we anticipated.

12/
Predicting future developments is challenging, hinging on russia’s ability to persist with deploying infantry without adequate cover. This attritional approach, aimed at wearing down defenders, makes it hard to provide any solid estimates. 

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If you'd like to support the defenders of Avdiivka, I recommend checking @jana_skhidna , as she consistently raises funds for brigades and units in the area.https://t.co/O2fvQvtv02

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 24, 2023

That's a correct assessment. The MoD is not Wagner, and, to put it simply, they can't employ the same approach due to legal aspects and overall differences in tactical approaches. It failed in Vuhledar, but the situation in Avdiivka is different, making it hard to predict.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 24, 2023

Nizhyn:

The city of Nizhyn.
This is after Oleksandr Matsiyevsky, the heroic Ukrainian soldier executed by Russians. #Glory pic.twitter.com/fbdoZzp2KO

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 24, 2023

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Magyar’s Birds are on the hunt!

Targeting Russian equipment on the left bank Kherson region. Video shows 2 destroyed tanks (one of them T-90M), couple of BTR-82 and BMP.
Video by the birds of Magyar unit. https://t.co/2Mxyc5Oqth pic.twitter.com/GrJgNztL9n

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 24, 2023

Elsewhere on the left bank of the Dnipro in Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

After successful operations by Ukrainian troops on the left bank of the Dnipro, they obtained Russian military ID cards, which I have mapped. What did they all forget in Kherson Oblast? pic.twitter.com/8FzayyFzWq

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 24, 2023

Almost all of those Russian soldiers are most likely ethnic minorities based on where Maria Avdeeva has mapped their places of origin in Russia.

Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Krynky, Ukraine. Servicemen of the Russian 26th Regiment would like to go on rotation after losing 3 companies of personnel. But instead, they're being sent to the islands. Looking for help from Shoygu. pic.twitter.com/rq65ZG39IR

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 24, 2023

Novomikhaylivka, Donetsk Oblast from OCT 2023:

October 2023, Novomikhaylivka, Donetsk Oblast. Russians assaulting a Ukrainian trench, blocking the lads in a dugout.

Coming to the rescue is a reserve group supported by a loitering drone. This saved the lives of all Ukrainians, although the position was eventually lost.… pic.twitter.com/X5ztQ5kveW

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) November 24, 2023

Dzankhoi, Russian occupied Crimea:

At night there was a reported drone attack on Russian base somewhere in Dzhankoi area, Crimea. As claimed, video shows the results of the attack. https://t.co/MoaPG8I4HJ pic.twitter.com/KRwm25LrUD

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 24, 2023

Russian occupied Crimea:

“Russian and Chinese business executives with government ties have held secret discussions on plans to build an underwater tunnel connecting Russia to Crimea in hopes of establishing a transportation route that would be protected from attacks by Ukraine” https://t.co/LBZ5UJgcLi

— max seddon (@maxseddon) November 24, 2023

Here’s the details from The Washington Post:

KYIV — Russian and Chinese business executives with government ties have held secret discussions on plans to build an underwater tunnel connecting Russia to Crimea in hopes of establishing a transportation route that would be protected from attacks by Ukraine, according to communications intercepted by Ukraine’s security services.

The talks, which included meetings in late October, were triggered by mounting Russian concerns over the security of an 11-mile bridge across the Kerch Strait that has served as a key logistics line for the Russian military but has been bombed twice by Ukraine and remains a vulnerable war target.

The negotiations underscore Russia’s determination to maintain its grip on Crimea, a peninsula that it annexed illegally in 2014, as well as Moscow’s growing dependence on China as a source of global support.

Constructing a tunnel near the existing bridge would face enormous obstacles, according to U.S. officials and engineering experts who said work of such magnitude, probably costing billions of dollars and taking years to complete, has never been attempted in a war zone.

But despite questions about the viability of the plan, experts said, Russia has clear reasons for pursuing it. Having failed to achieve a decisive victory in the war, said Alexander Gabuev, an expert on Moscow-Beijing relations at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Russia “faces [the] risk that Ukraine will try to disrupt the Kerch bridge for many years to come.”

The project would also pose political and financial risks for China, which has never officially recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and whose companies could become ensnared in economic sanctions that the United States and the European Union have imposed on Moscow.

Nevertheless, intercepted emails indicate that one of China’s largest construction companies has signaled its willingness to participate. The messages were provided to The Washington Post by Ukrainian officials hoping to expose the project and China’s potential involvement. The authenticity of the messages was corroborated by other information separately obtained by The Post, including corporate registration files showing that a Russian-Chinese consortium involving individuals named in the emails was recently formed in Crimea.

Emails circulated among consortium officials in recent weeks mention meetings with Chinese delegates in Crimea. One dated Oct. 4 describes the Chinese Railway Construction Corporation, CRCC, as “ready to ensure the construction of railway and road construction projects of any complexity in the Crimean region.”

CRCC, a state-owned company, built many of the largest road and rail networks in China and has established substantial ties to Russia in recent years through projects including an extension of the Moscow subway system that was completed in 2021. The company did not respond to requests for comment.

A senior executive at the Russian-Chinese Consortium, based in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, refused to answer questions about the tunnel project when reached by a Post reporter.

Vladimir Kalyuzhny, a Russian businessman who is identified in documents as the general director of the consortium, dismissed the matter as “a lot of hot air” before declaring that he would not provide any information to the “enemy media” and abruptly ending the call.

His response was at odds with how the proposal has been depicted in internal emails. In a message sent last month to a Russian official who serves as one of Crimea’s main representatives in Moscow, Kalyuzhny said he had “a letter from our Chinese partners about the readiness of one of the largest companies in China, CRCC, to participate as a general contractor in the construction of a tunnel under the Kerch Strait.”

The email was addressed to Georgiy Muradov, who is listed as the permanent representative of the Republic of Crimea to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Muradov, who previously served as Russia’s ambassador to Cyprus, did not respond to requests for comment.

More at the link!

For you air defense enthusiasts:

Night work of the mobile fire group.

We are preparing. To defend Ukrainian cities and effectively shoot down the enemy's "Shaheds".

📸: 91st Separate Okhtyrka Operational Support Regiment pic.twitter.com/ssvAyRDCuZ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023

Just a brief note on the Israel-Hamas truce. Despite a Hamas rocket launch fifteen minutes after the start of the truce, which set of air raid alarms in Israel, cooler heads seem to be prevailing.

🚨🚨Air raid sirens in Gaza border area 16 minutes in. https://t.co/W1YubgITUL

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) November 24, 2023

As of now the truce appears to be holding. The first batch of Israeli women and children were released this morning on time and shortly thereafter the first group of Palestinian prisoners were also released. This evening the Israeli government received the list of the next eleven hostages to be released tomorrow. The Thai and Filipino hostages, almost all of whom worked at the kibbutzim, have also been released. None of the Israeli-American dual nationals were released today.

A few things to note. First, today’s group of hostages were all being held in southern Gaza:

💥Tidbits, unconfirmed reports: The 13 Israeli hostages to be released in the coming minutes were all held in southern Gaza. Twelve Thai citizens will be released with the 13 Israelis. Hamas will transmit the list of the next batch of Israeli citizens it plans to release at 4 pm. https://t.co/4aSoC94zOm

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) November 24, 2023

I expect tomorrow’s will be as well. Once these hostages, who are clearly in Hamas custody and easily accessible as part of the terms of the truce are turned over, I expect things will begin to get dicey.

Second, the female hostage that PIJ reported to have died in captivity last week was actually among those released today.

Hannah Katzir, 77, who days ago was reported dead by Islamic Jihad, was freed tonight. It's a miracle for her family and a nice surprise for us. What kind of psychological warfare is this? pic.twitter.com/794tD5Us4Z

— No Limits (@NoLimits4Christ) November 24, 2023

So that’s a bit of good news. I does make one wonder, if there’s another 77 year old Israeli woman who died in PIJ custody and they misidentified her and, as a result, there is going to be a very heartbroken family in the next few days.

Third, this has been a major victory for Hamas. In addition to the propaganda videos they’re releasing of their fighters carefully escorting elderly Israeli women into ICRC custody, they have now been elevated to state actor.

💥Joe Biden says Hamas' list of hostages to be released tomorrow will arrive shortly. *Hamas has never before experienced a thrill comparable to that of having the President of the United States as an opening act.* pic.twitter.com/E1Tk2IYeLI

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) November 24, 2023

What’s galling and appalling is to see Hamas elevated to a state actor in high level negotiations. It’s both a reflection of its tactics and motives. Turn terror into an asset and hostages into a potential key to its relevance and survival.

— Aaron David Miller (@aarondmiller2) November 24, 2023

Full disclosure: I know Aaron.

Fourth, and finally, I’m going to be referring to this using the operational, doctrinal, and legal term truce from now on because that is what it is. It is not a ceasefire, nor is it an armistice. Here’s the definition from the International Committee of the Red Cross’s casebook:

Agreement between belligerents to interrupt for a stated period the use of means of warfare in a specific locality or sector.

A truce should enable work to be done that is unrelated to the general conduct of war (e.g. removal of the wounded, burial of the dead, exchange of prisoners) or give military commanders time to ask for instructions regarding negotiations.

For so long as the suspension of hostilities remains in force, and failing agreement to the contrary, there must be no change in the positions of the opposing forces.

The effects of the suspension are limited to the territory stated in the relevant convention. Suspension of hostilities does not entail suspension of the application of international humanitarian law or put an end to the state of war, which subsists with all its legal consequences.

Now we wait to see how tomorrow goes and how long the truce lasts.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

To be a combat medic is to save not only your brothers-in-arms but also the little friends among us.

📸: 60th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/gtBjQmAPQ6

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023

Cats are still cats even in the hottest areas of the battlefront.

📹: Khorne Group pic.twitter.com/65luLtNVX2

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 24, 2023

Open thread!